理解凯文·沃什对美联储的计划

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你好。

Hi.

我是凯伦·莫斯科。

I'm Karen Moscow.

我是内森·哈格。

And I'm Nathan Hager.

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每天早晨收听Bloomberg Daybreak美国版播客，了解重要新闻并获得您所需的背景信息。

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Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio, news.

我来告诉你。

I'll tell you.

如果我们的新任美联储主席——我认为他会非常出色——如果他能充分发挥他的能力，我们的经济增长率可以达到15%。

If our new head of the Fed, who I think is gonna be great, if he does the job that he's capable, we can grow at 15%.

我觉得甚至可能更高。

I think more than that.

我是彭博政府与经济事务主管斯蒂芬妮·弗兰德斯，欢迎收听《川普经济学》，这档播客将探讨唐纳德·特朗普的经济世界，他如何已经塑造了全球经济，以及接下来究竟会发生什么。

I'm Stephanie Flanders, head of government and economics at Bloomberg, and this is Trumponomics, the podcast that looks at the economic world of Donald Trump, how he's already shaped the global economy, and what on earth is going to happen next.

本周，我们将审视一些人认为是唐纳德·特朗普在过去一年中做出的最重要人事决策：任命凯文·沃什为下一任美联储主席。

This week, we look at what some would say was the single most important personnel decision that Donald Trump has made in the last year, choosing Kevin Warsh to be the next chairman of the Federal Reserve.

假设沃什获得确认，这将是《川普经济学》中一个关键组成部分，即使总统本人离任后，仍将持续影响美国及全球经济。

Assuming Warsh is confirmed, that's one piece of Trumponomics we can expect to be shaping the American and global economy for some time after the president himself is gone.

那么，沃什先生将如何领导全球最重要的中央银行呢？

So how will mister Warsh lead the world's most important central bank?

鉴于美联储与白宫之间的关系如此紧张，他能否赢得内部支持以有效履职，考虑到他任命背后强烈的政治氛围？

And with relations between the Fed and the White House quite so fraught, will he be able to win the internal support he needs to be effective given the intensely political buildup to his appointment?

就目前而言，市场在1月中旬确认凯文·沃什人选后的几天内的走势表明，投资者认为他不会让政策受总统左右，也不会让通胀失控。

For what it's worth, the market moves in the days when the choice of Kevin Warsh was confirmed in mid January suggest investors think he won't let policy be dictated by the president and won't let inflation run amok.

你可以在美元升值中看到这一点，尤其在黄金和白银价格的急剧下跌中表现得尤为明显。

You could see that in the rise in the dollar and most strikingly in the dramatic fall in the price of gold and silver.

然而，关于沃什对货币政策和利率的真实看法，以及他对美联储本身的计划——他过去曾对美联储提出过相当尖锐的批评——仍存在许多重大不确定性。

And yet there are big areas of uncertainty about what Warsh really thinks about monetary policy and interest rates and about his plans for the Fed itself, which he's been pretty critical of in the past.

当我思考谁能既理解这个故事，又能解释市场对此的看法时，我第一个想到的就是我的朋友克里希纳·古哈。

When I was thinking about the people who could both understand this story and explain how markets were thinking about it, my friend Krishna Guha was the first name that came to mind.

克里希纳是投资研究集团Evercore ISI的副主席兼经济与央行策略主管。

Krishna is the Vice Chairman and Head of Economics and Central Bank Strategy at the Investment Research Group, Evercore ISI.

在加入Evercore之前，他曾担任纽约联邦储备银行的执行副总裁，多年前我们还在《金融时报》短暂共事过，当时克里希纳是全球经济学和经济政策的资深撰稿人。

Before Evercore, he was an Executive Vice President at the New York Fed, and we also overlapped briefly at the Financial Times many years ago, where Krishna was a senior writer on global economics and economic policy.

首先，我想我们确实看到了他被任命后市场的剧烈反应，投资者似乎得出了相当明确的结论：他将对美联储意味着什么，又不会意味着什么。

Firstly, I guess we had that quite dramatic market reaction to his appointment, seemingly investors drawing some quite clear conclusions about what he was gonna mean for the Fed and not mean for the Fed.

你是如何解读这一反应的？对你来说，有哪些关键结论？

How did you interpret the reaction, and what were some of the key takeaways for you?

我们最初认为，市场会初步将沃什视为鹰派人物，因此利率上升、收益率曲线变陡，因为他在资产负债表问题上的立场，以及他可能重启量化紧缩以缩减美联储资产负债表的担忧，导致股市风险偏好下降、美元走强，因为他会被视为更支持强势美元的人选。

So we thought going in that the market would initially trade Warsh hawkish, so rates higher, yield curve steeper because of his balance sheet views and concerns that he might restart QT to shrink the Fed's balance sheet, risk off in stocks, and dollar higher as he would be seen as more of a strong dollar candidate.

因此，我们看到的市场反应总体上朝着这些方向发展，我认为并不令人意外。

So the market reactions that we've seen, which have broadly gone in those directions, I don't think are surprising.

但与此同时，我的观点是，市场反应也反映出人们并不真正清楚沃什会成为一个怎样的央行行长。

At the same time, though, my own view is that the market reaction also reflects a sense that people don't really understand exactly what kind of central bank governor Warsh is going to be.

我认为这是合理的。

I think that's reasonable.

我的看法是，凯文·沃什不太可能是一个意识形态上的鹰派，而更可能在许多方面相当务实。

My own views are that Kevin Warsh is unlikely to be an ideological hawk and is more likely to be, in many respects, quite pragmatic.

是的。

Yes.

让我们先谈谈货币政策和利率这部分，然后再讨论资产负债表的问题，因为对一些人来说，后者可能不太熟悉。

Just so let's just let's talk about the monetary policy kind of interest rate piece first, and then we'll get into the the balance sheet things, which for some people will be less familiar territory.

我认为他之所以让人有些不确定，是因为他过去曾是一个鹰派人物。

The reason, I guess, that there is a bit of uncertainty about him is on this point, is that he had previously been a hawk.

事实上，正如我们自己的首席美国经济学家指出的，如果你看看他的履历，他在2006年到2011年期间曾在美联储任职。

And in fact, as our own chief US economist pointed out, if you look at his record, he was at the Fed 2006, 2011.

他比大多数理事更长期地关注通胀问题。

He he was more concerned about inflation for longer than most governors.

所以如果你看当时的会议纪要，直到2009年4月，他仍然比担心下行风险更担心通胀，也就是说从2008年一直到2009年4月，他直到2009年8月才真正放松了对通胀的担忧。

So if you look at the sort of minutes, he was more worried about inflation than downside risk as late as April 2009, so right through 2008 and April 2009, and only really eased up on worrying about inflation August 2009.

因此，听到他现在——作为特朗普提名的美联储主席候选人——强调一种截然不同的做法，似乎确实很不一样。

So it's quite striking to hear him now, since he's been in the running, to be Trump's pick for Fed chair, emphasizing a rather different approach, seemingly rather different approach.

但他将这种变化归因于人工智能对生产率和经济的影响，这也是他声称自2009年以来发生改变的原因。

But he's pinning it on the impact of AI on productivity on the economy, and that's what he can say has changed since 2009.

我的意思是，你真的相信他说的这些吗？

I mean, do you take that at face value?

我认为，凯文·沃什在其职业生涯的大部分时间里，确实体现了人们所理解的保守派共和党经济思想和原则，这些思想通常更关注通胀而非劳动力市场，更侧重于供给侧问题而非需求侧管理。

So I think it is true that Kevin Warsh has, for most of his career, has channeled and represented what one might think of as small c conservative Republican leaning economic thinking and principles that has generally been more concerned with inflation than the labor market, let's say, more focused on supply side issues than demand side management.

因此，我认为这体现了一种在政治和经济辩论某一方所持的思维模式。

And so I think there is an aspect that is channeling a set of thinking on one side, if you like, of the political and economic debates.

但我认为，如果凯文参加这次通话，他会说，他对通胀风险的思考方式一直保持一致。

But I think what Kevin would say if he was on this call is that there is a consistency in the way that he thinks about inflation risks.

首先，凯文认为，许多美联储类型的思维、许多新凯恩斯主义的思维以及由此产生的模型，过于强调经济的需求面和失业率作为通胀的预测和驱动因素。

So first of all, Kevin is someone who, as I mentioned, thinks that a lot of Fed type thinking, a lot of New Keynesian type thinking, and the modelling that's come from that, puts a lot too much weight on the demand side of the economy and unemployment as a predictor and driver of inflation.

凯文的观点是，当经济走强或走弱时，你首先应该问的问题是：这是由供给驱动还是需求驱动的？

Kevin's view is that when the economy strengthens or indeed weakens, the first question you should be asking is whether it's supply driven or demand driven.

当然，这两种情况对经济的影响可能截然不同，对利率的影响也是如此。

And then of course, the implications for the economy are potentially very different, as are the implications for rates in those two cases.

我认为凯文还相信，真正的通胀风险往往出现在政府财政扩张与央行货币融资相结合的时候。

I think it's also the case that Kevin believes that the really big inflation risks come when you have a combination of fiscal expansion on the part of the government and money financing on the parts of the central bank.

当然，美联储会辩称自己并没有这样做。

Now, of course, the Fed would argue that it hasn't been doing that.

但凯文会说，如果政府在周一发行债券以资助财政刺激，而美联储在周四在市场购买债券，这实际上已经非常接近于为财政扩张提供货币融资。

But Kevin would say if the government issues bonds to finance fiscal stimulus on Monday and the Fed buys bonds in the market on Thursday, it's coming fairly close to money financing that fiscal expansion.

关于全球金融危机，坦率地说，我当时和现在都认为，凯文的判断完全错了。

So with respect to the GFC, in all candor, my own view at the time as now was that Kevin was simply wrong in his assessment.

但如果我们想想现在和疫情初期通胀之间的区别，凯文会问，那时我们有什么？

But if we think of, say, the difference between where we are now and the early phase of the pandemic inflation, right, Kevin would have said, what do we have then?

我们面临的是供给端的受损。

We had an impaired supply side.

我们有大量的财政刺激，以及一个正在货币融资并扩大资产负债表的央行。

We had a lot of fiscal stimulus, and we had a central bank that was money financing and expanding its balance sheet.

在凯文看来，这就是高通胀的配方。

That, in Kevin's world, is a recipe for high inflation.

那我们现在有什么？

What do we have today?

我们正经历一次积极的供给冲击。

We have a positive supply shock.

我们有一个巨大的政府赤字，凯文当然认为从长期来看，这种水平的赤字难以持续，但目前它既没有上升也没有下降，因为关税收入大致与那项宏伟的财政拨款法案相当。

We have a large government deficit that Kevin certainly thinks in the long run is not likely to be sustainable at these levels, but it's not going up or down because the tariff take is roughly the same as the one big beautiful bill, fiscal giveaways.

而且没有中央银行的资金融资或资产负债表扩张。

And there's no central bank money financing or balance sheet expansion.

所以凯文会说，今天的通胀风险与疫情初期的通胀风险完全不同，这就是为什么我当时是鹰派，而现在是鸽派。

So Kevin would say the inflation risks today are completely different from the inflation risks that were there in the early phase of the pandemic, which is why I was a hawk then, and I'm a dove now.

当然，关于人工智能对经济的影响，存在很多不确定性，也有很多人关注美国当前的通胀水平，以及由于‘宏伟法案’和其他因素可能在未来带来相当多的刺激措施。

And, obviously, there's a lot of uncertainty about what the impact of AI is gonna be on the economy, and there are many people who can look at, where inflation is now in The US and the sort of possibility that you will actually have a fair amount of stimulus coming down the track as a result of the big beautiful bill and other things.

因此，我认为关于未来一两年通胀会如何发展，是否应该继续降息，甚至在凯文·沃什接任美联储主席后更快降息，目前仍无定论。

So the I guess the the jury is out on what happens to inflation over the next year or two, whether it makes sense to continue cutting rates or even cut them faster after Kevin Warsh assuming he becomes Fed chair.

但你对他相当了解。

But you know him pretty well.

他会多大程度上以数据为导向？

How much is he gonna be data driven?

面对证据，他有多大意愿改变自己的观点？

How much is he going to be willing to sort of change his mind in the face of the evidence or not?

是的。

Yeah.

凯文理想的央行行长是那种兼具50%艾伦·格林斯潘和50%斯坦·德鲁肯米勒特质的人。

Kevin's ideal central bank governor is someone who would be 50% Alan Greenspan, 50% Stan Druckenmiller.

为什么是格林斯潘？

Why Greenspan?

因为格林斯潘当然是一位会仔细研究那些晦涩的经济统计数据和私营部门数据的人，从中洞察出将在未来数月才反映在官方数据中的真实经济状况。

Because Greenspan was, of course, the man who knew he was the one who would look in the fine detail of the obscure economic statistics and private sector data and discern what was really happening in the economy that would show up in the official data many months in the future.

而德鲁肯米勒则被许多人视为最伟大的宏观对冲基金经理之一，他有能力从市场中捕捉到不仅关于当前经济状况、更关于未来经济走向的信号。

And then, of course, Druckenmiller being, by many counts, one of the greatest macro hedge fund managers and somebody who had the ability to see in markets the signals about not just where the economy is today, but where the economy would be going in the future.

因此，凯文希望实现的是，对经济前景和风险平衡拥有比单纯将上个月的就业报告或CPI数据输入美联储的FRBUS模型更前瞻、更丰富、更细致的判断。

So what Karen will aspire to do is to have a more forward looking and richer, more nuanced sense of the outlook for the economy and the balance of risks than you would get by simply plugging last month's employment report or CPI data into a model like FRBUS at the Fed.

他对某些模型以及他所说的‘依赖滞后数据’的文化相当不屑。

He's quite scornful of some of those models and the sort of culture of what he would say is backward looking data dependency.

所以我认为他会努力在数据基础上做出决策，但更重视微观企业层面的数据和市场信号，相对而言，对顶级经济发布数据的依赖会少一些。

So I think he will try to be yet informed by data, but putting more weight on some of the sort of micro corporate level data on the one hand and market signals as data on the other relative to, if you like, the top tier economic releases.

关于这种方法，我想说的是，我非常认同这样一个观点：我们确实应该努力超越仅仅用上个月的数据来判断经济走向的做法。

What I would say with respect to that approach is that I have a lot of sympathy with the idea that we should we really should aim to do better than simply use last month's data to understand where the economy is going.

我们确实希望对私营部门数据和市场信号有深入的理解，但要成为艾伦·格林斯潘非常困难，要成为斯坦·德鲁肯米勒也同样困难。

We do aspire to have a rich understanding of private sector data market signals, but it's very hard to be Alan Greenspan, and it's very hard to be Stan Druckenmiller.

而做一个不那么出色的版本，可能会相当危险。

And being a not very good version of those two could be quite dangerous.

因此，以一种非常精妙且成功的方式实现这一点，将是一个巨大的挑战。

So it's going be a big challenge to be able to do this in a way that is very sophisticated and successful.

此外，在制定政策时，如果出于合理原因试图融入私营部门的细微洞察和更多市场信号，同时兼顾传统的宏观数据，要保持系统性和可预测性也是一大挑战。

And an additional challenge in making policy in a systematic and predictable way when you are, for good reasons, trying to draw in small private sector insights and more markets insight, as well as standard macro data.

是的。

Yeah.

我想这多少涉及到我们对他如何与美联储内部人员相处的看法。

I guess there's this gets a little bit to how we think he's gonna get on with people at the Fed.

但我想，那些担心你提到的这种组合的人，正如你所说，他并没有艾伦·格林斯潘那样的背景。

But I guess the people who are who would be concerned about that combination that you talked about, And to your point, he doesn't have the background of Alan Greenspan.

对非经济学家出身的美联储主席抱有优越感是很容易的。

It's easy to be snobby about non economist Fed chairs.

杰伊·鲍威尔表现得并不差。

Jay Powell, not done so badly.

他不是经济学家。

He's a non economist.

克里斯蒂娜·拉加德也像凯文·沃什一样是律师。

Christine Lagarde was also a lawyer like like Kevin Warsh.

所以不幸的是，对我们经济学家来说，这似乎并不是担任优秀美联储主席或央行行长的必要条件。

So it doesn't seem to be unfortunately, for us economists, it doesn't seem to necessarily be in a bar to being a good Fed chair or central bank governor.

但当你把大量希望寄托在技术变革如何影响实体经济这一论点上时，他在美联储内部推动这一观点、争取他人支持时，是否会遇到阻力？毕竟，他曾对美联储内部的一些人态度粗鲁，甚至谈论过需要‘制度变革’、‘打破一些头颅’这类说法。

But when you're pinning a lot on this argument about how a technological change is affecting the real economy, is that gonna give him some persuading to do at the Fed making that case, trying to get people on side with that when actually he's been a bit rude about some of the people inside the Fed, and he's even talked about the need for regime change and breaking some heads and all these kind of phrases.

是的。

Yeah.

因此，他确实需要修复自己在美联储内部的人际关系，这对他的成功至关重要。

So certainly as a bit of a repair job to do in terms of his internal relationships at the Fed, which will be important for his success.

而且，我认为如果他足够聪明——我知道他很聪明——并且如果他能从政府那里获得足够的支持空间，虽然我对这一点不太确定，他今后会降低‘MAGA制度变革’这类言论的调门。

And, you know, I think if he's smart, which I know he is, and if he has enough slack from the administration, which I'm not so sure about, he will dial down on the MAGA regime change stuff from here on in.

因为，当然了，即使你从试图实现政府今年希望的几次降息的角度来看，如果你能赢得旧FOMC成员的支持，而不是在整个余下时间里与委员会陷入持久对抗，你的成功率会高得多。

Because, of course, even if you're approaching this from the perspective of trying to deliver the several rate cuts that the administration is hoping for this year, your ability to do that is much greater if you are able to win over the, if you like, the old FOMC, get them on side rather than fight trench warfare of the committee through the balance of this year.

凯文最近对美联储说了不少不客气的话。

Kevin is somebody who has said a lot of rude things about the Fed recently.

但他也有很高的情商和出色的人际管理能力。

He's also someone who has very high EQ and good people management skills.

因此，我可以想象他在私下里实际上会相当温和，努力与大家建立联系。

And so I could imagine him behind closed doors actually being relatively conciliatory and trying to build bridges with folks.

但当然，如果他一上任就说要裁掉三分之一的员工，比如米基·鲍曼在银行业所做的那样，而且对传统的经济分析、Furbis等毫无兴趣，那就会激起众怒，使人们更不可能追随他。

But of course, if he comes in and says that he's going to fire a third of the staff, for instance, as Mickey Bowman is doing on the banking side and has no interest in in analytic traditional analytics around Furbis and so forth, that would pit people's backs up and make it less likely that they would follow him.

你的观点是关于经济判断本身的实质。

Your point is on the actual merits of the economic judgment.

我认为美联储内部的人不会仅仅因为一个断言、信念或预期，就接受‘生产率正出现积极冲击’这种说法。

I don't think people in the Fed are going to be willing to go with a positive productivity shock story just on a assertion or on a belief or an expectation that this is coming.

与此同时，我认为我们已经开始在数据中看到一些迹象，正朝着这个方向发展。

At the same time, I think we are already starting to see certain things in the data that are starting to point in that direction.

美联储在十二月上调了今年的生产率评估，当时鲍威尔基本承认美国的基础生产率增长已经提升。

The Fed upgraded its productivity assessment for this year in December, when Powell essentially acknowledged that the base productivity growth has already stepped up in The US.

我自己的分析表明，今年和明年的生产率将再次略高于过去几年，而过去几年又比更早的年份略高。

My own analysis suggests that productivity this year, next year will be again a bit higher than the last few years, which were a bit higher than the years that went before them.

那么问题来了，无偏估计是多少？

And so the question is what's the unbiased estimate?

换句话说，一个在正反两方面错误概率相等的无偏估计，很可能确实反映了生产率的跃升。

The unbiased estimate, in other words, something which is equally likely to be wrong on both sides, probably does have a step up in productivity.

这只是一个你希望多强烈地推动这一观点的问题。

It's just a question of how hard you want to push that theme.

是的。

Yes.

我怀疑我们将来还会回到特朗普经济学这个话题，尤其是因为英国甚至已经出现了一些生产率小幅回升的迹象，而英国的生产率长期以来一直低迷不振。

I I suspect that's something we'll be coming back to on Trumponomics, not least because there are even some small signs of a pickup in productivity in The UK where it has been dead and buried for really a long time.

所以我们正等待着，看这些迹象是否会在春季的雨水冲刷下被抹去。

So we are waiting to see if if those get trampled on in the spring rains.

让我们谈谈他对资产负债表的态度，因为他谈到的真正想在传统货币政策之外进行的变革——也就是如何设定利率——正是体现在他希望缩减资产负债表的意愿上。

Let's get to his approach to the balance sheet because where he has talked about really want to bring in the changes outside of the sort of traditional monetary policy, how do you set interest rates, is in this desire to to shrink the balance sheet.

美联储的资产负债表在金融危机前 famously 不到1万亿美元。

The Fed, famously had its I think its balance sheet was less than $1,000,000,000,000 before the global financial crisis.

在新冠疫情后，它曾飙升至约9万亿美元，之后由于美联储出售所持债券，规模略有下降，但仍然大约是二十年前的七到八倍。

It peaked at about $9,000,000,000,000 after COVID, and it it shrunk a little bit as a result of those kind of those sales of bonds that the Fed was holding, but it's still roughly seven or eight times what it was twenty years ago.

这可能对长期利率产生重大影响，而非短期利率，如果他积极重启美联储资产负债表的缩减进程，因为显然，这一进程不久前才刚刚停止。

And that's potentially has quite big implications, not for short term interest rates, but for long term interest rates if he aggressively moved to to restart the shrinking of the Fed, balance sheet because, obviously, they had stopped that quite recently.

那你如何看待这一点？

So how do you see that?

你对此感到担忧吗？

And are you concerned about it?

没错。

Right.

是的。

Yeah.

首先，对于你的听众来说，美联储在降低资产负债表规模方面已经取得了一些进展，从你所说的约9万亿美元的峰值下降了不少。

So first of all, just for your listeners, the Fed's made a bit more progress bringing down the balance sheet from from the peak around, I think, as you said, was it 9,000,000,000,000?

目前我们已经降至约6.5万亿美元。

And we're down about 6 and a half trillion at this point.

这是一次显著的缩减。

That's an appreciable reduction.

从中央银行资产负债表与名义GDP的比率，或者银行资产这一相对合理的基准来看，你确实逆转了疫情期间资产负债表的扩张。

And in terms of the ratio of the central bank balance sheet to nominal GDP, which is or banking assets, which is a sort of a a kind of reasonable benchmark, you certainly unwound the pandemic expansion in the balance sheet.

所以至少这部分已经恢复到了原状。

So that part at least has round tripped.

但你完全正确，如果我们要找凯文·沃什职业生涯中一贯的主题，那就是他倾向于一个更小、更简洁，我还想补充说，更谦逊的央行资产负债表——这意味着这不仅关乎资产负债表的规模、构成和期限，还关乎这样一个理念：庞大的央行资产负债表是一种庞大的政府行为，是政府在市场中过度介入的表现，这在许多方面都是不健康的，有些方面涉及鼓励财政部门维持巨额赤字和债务，但也因为你不希望看到央行在货币市场和金融市场中扮演如此庞大的角色。

But you're absolutely right that if we're looking for one consistent theme across Kevin Warsh's career, it's that he favors a smaller, cleaner, and I would add humbler central bank balance sheet, meaning that it's not just about the size and composition and duration of the balance sheet, but it's also about this idea that a big central bank balance sheet is a form of big government, a big footprint of the government sector in markets, and that this is unhealthy in lots of ways, some of which relate to the encouragement it gives to the fiscal authority to run big deficits and debts, but also that just you don't want a system where the central bank is such a big actor in money markets and in financial markets.

因此，我认为这是沃什根深蒂固且真诚的信念。

So I think that is a deep seated and sincere conviction on the part of of Warsh.

问题是，在他担任美联储主席期间，我们应如何预期他会努力体现这一理念？

The question is how should we expect that he will look to try to reflect that during his tenure as Fed Chair?

我认为凯文会立即启动大规模量化紧缩计划的想法简直荒谬可笑。

I think the idea that Kevin will go out there and try to kick off some big QT program fairly soon is laughably improbable.

他非常精明，完全清楚自己最大的软肋就是过去关于资产负债表的言论。

He is somebody who is quite savvy and understands full well that his greatest point of vulnerability is his past comments about the balance sheet.

如果他发表任何听起来对资产负债表过于鹰派、或暗示他可能很快会重启量化紧缩的言论，就可能引发债券收益率飙升，这不仅会严重打击他担任美联储主席初期的声誉，还会破坏他与贝森特部长和特朗普总统的关系。

And if he says anything that sounds too hawkish on the balance sheet or suggests that he might be keen to kick on with QT again fairly soon, he risks a blow up in terms of a spike in bond yields that would not only be a big hit to the start of his career as Fed chair, it would also blow up his relationship with secretary Bessent and president Trump.

因此，这正是凯文最不想看到的情况。

So this is the last thing that Kevin wants.

我认为凯文一旦开始发言，就会传递出他将在资产负债表问题上保持高度务实、谨慎行事的信号。

I think Kevin will as soon as he starts speaking, he will signal that he's going to be very pragmatic on the balance sheet, very careful in terms of what he may try to do on the balance sheet.

向市场传递这一信号的一种方式，是他提出的美联储与财政部达成协议的构想，以促进美联储与财政部之间更紧密的制度性合作。

One mechanism for signaling that to the market is his idea of a Fed Treasury accord that would facilitate closer institutional cooperation between the Fed and the Treasury.

不过，提到美联储与财政部协议，确实会让一些人担心这会如何影响传统的央行独立性观念。

Now, the mention of Fed Treasury accords makes some, us nervous as to exactly how this would affect con traditional conceptions of central bank independence.

但凯文会辩称，央行完全可以保持独立，同时仍能与财政部进行更有效率的协调与合作。

But Kevin will argue that, look, the central bank can be independent, but still coordinate in a more effective or cooperate in a more effective way with the treasury.

就目前而言，这主要是确保美联储的资产负债表计划与财政部的债务管理计划保持一致，可以说是一种轻微的协调。

In the here and now, that would be very much, I think, about making sure that any balance sheet plans on the Fed side were consistent with plans on the treasury's debt management side, if you like a little bit of sort of soft coordination there.

但我认为，向市场传递的信号是：我，凯文·沃什，正在给斯科特·贝森特一个软性否决权，而不是硬性否决权，来阻止任何量化紧缩计划。

But I think the signal to market is intended to be that I, Kevin Warsh, am giving Scott Bessent a soft veto, not a hard veto, but a soft veto on any QT plans.

所以你们都可以放松了，因为你们可能不信任我，但你们非常清楚，斯科特并不希望利率和抵押贷款利率上升。

So you can all relax because you may not trust me, but you know full well that Scott doesn't want higher yields and higher mortgage rates.

这里是特别探员里格尔，特别探员布拉德利·霍尔。

This is special agent Regal, special agent Bradley Hall.

现在时间大约是上午11点15分。

The time is approximately 11:15AM.

即将开始与戴娃·张博士的自愿电话通话。

About to start consensual telephone telephone call with doctor Daiwa Zhang.

中国国家安全部是世界上最神秘且最具影响力的间谍机构之一。

China's Ministry of State Security is one of the most mysterious and powerful spy agencies in the world.

但在2017年，联邦调查局成功渗透了进去。

But in 2017, the FBI got inside.

等等。

Wait.

这是一个选择。

That's an option.

嘿。

Hey.

在我整个职业生涯中，我从未见过如此多的证据，我认为我们再也不会看到这么多证据了。

I've never seen that much evidence in my entire career, and I don't think we'll ever see that much evidence again.

我现在拥有了数太字节的中国安全部官员的资料，毫无疑问，毫无疑问地了解了他的生活，这简直是独一无二的。

I now have several terabytes of an MSS officer, no doubt, no question of his life, and that's a unicorn.

这是一个关于中国安全部内部运作的故事，讲述了一位男子的野心与失误如何打开了其秘密宝库。

This is a story of the inner workings of the MSS, and how one man's ambition and mistakes opened its vault of secrets.

从2月13日起，在iHeartRadio应用、Apple Podcasts或您收听播客的任何平台，收听Bloomberg播客的《第六局》。

Listen to The Sixth Bureau from Bloomberg Podcasts starting on February 13 on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

为了深入探讨这一点，因为你长期以来一直关注这个特定的市场领域，以及市场与美联储政策之间的互动。

Just to get into that, whether you because you are such a sort of long term observer and thinker about this particular bit of the market and the kind of interaction of markets with poll with policy of the Fed.

你可以想象，金融市场上有很多人会认为，是的，大政府是坏事。

You could imagine quite a lot of people in the financial markets would think, yeah, big government's bad.

我们不喜欢美联储过度介入各种事务。

We don't like Fed that gets in the way and gets super involved in lots of different things.

另一方面，一些跟我交谈过、最担心美联储资产负债表过快收缩的人，关注的是国债市场和回购市场的短期流动性，也就是银行为维持金融系统正常运转所需的这种极短期流动性。他们担心，如果随着时间推移，资产负债表大幅缩减，可能会对日常市场的流动性产生我们尚未真正理解的意外后果。

On the other hand, some of the people who have talked to me who've been most concerned about shrinking the Fed balance sheet faster have been people who look at the short term liquidity of treasury markets and the repurchase market, this kind of very short term liquidity that banks need to keep the financial system ticking over, and are worried that if you have over time quite a significant reduction in the balance sheet, that could actually have unexpected consequences that we don't really understand for liquidity in day to day markets.

你同意这一点吗？

Do you agree with that?

我确实认为，如果处理不当，这将对货币市场以及国债市场本身的运作产生非常重大的影响。

I certainly think it if it was mishandled, it would have very significant consequences for money markets as well as potentially the functionally of the treasury debt market itself.

这正是沃什在这里会极其谨慎的原因。

That's precisely why Warsh is going to be extremely careful here.

所以，如果允许我稍微分析一下，斯蒂夫，凯文非常清楚，美联储资产负债表的规模取决于银行在央行选定的任何操作框架下所希望持有的准备金数量。

So if you forgive me for just being a little bit analytic for a second, Steph, Kevin understands full well that the size of the Fed balance sheet is dictated by the amount of reserves the banks want to hold for any given chosen operating framework that the central bank operates with.

因此，从金融危机前到现在，最大的变化是美联储从所谓的‘稀缺准备金体系’转向了‘充足准备金体系’。

So the big change from the pre financial crisis period to the present is that the Fed moved from what was called a scarce reserves system to what's called an ample reserves system.

理论上，沃什领导的美联储可以尝试随着时间推移逐步回归稀缺准备金体系。

In theory, the Warsh Fed could try to, over time, move back towards a scarce reserve system.

但这在操作上将极其困难，实施起来挑战巨大。

That would be extremely difficult to implement, operationally very challenging.

这会带来巨大的麻烦，而且还会涉及美联储资产规模的逐步缩减，这很可能推高长期债券收益率，与财政部和白宫的目标背道而驰。

It would be a massive headache, and it would also involve the kind of Fed portfolio shrinkage over time that would likely put substantial upward pressure on longer term bond yields in a way that would be very much antithetical to what the treasury and the White House is trying to achieve.

我们认为，美联储本身不会支持这种做法，FOMC的绝大多数成员都已倾向于维持充裕准备金体系。

We think that the Fed itself would not go along with that, that the vast majority of the FOMC has a sort of settled preference for the ample reserves system.

因此，我们的判断是，沃什不会从充裕准备金体系转向稀缺准备金体系。

So our call is that Warsh will not move off the ample reserve system towards the scarce reserve system.

一旦你决定采用充裕准备金体系，你就必须维持一个庞大的资产负债表。

Once you've settled that you're running an ample reserve system, you're going to have a big balance sheet.

就是这样。

Period.

那么问题来了：到底多大？

Now question how big?

好吧，让我们根据我给你提供的公式的第二部分来确定。

Well, let's determine by the second part of the formula I gave you.

在给定的操作框架下，银行希望持有多少储备金？

How many reserves do the banks want to hold for a given operating framework?

这可能对监管制度敏感。

Now that may be sensitive to the regulatory regime.

我认为可能在这里发生的是，沃什将与财政部以及美国其他银行监管机构紧密合作，大力推动银行业放松监管。

What I think is potentially going to happen here is that Warsh, in concert with the Treasury and the other banking regulatory agencies in The US, will be pushing hard on banking deregulation.

在沃什的领导下，美联储也将大力推动放宽银行监管，也就是规则的执行层面，而非规则本身。

The Fed will also under Warsh be pushing hard on easing up on banking supervision, which is the sort of the implementation of the rules, if you like, rather than the rules themselves.

其期望是，随着广泛的银行业放松监管，银行在资本和流动性方面持有政府债券的成本降低，从而选择持有更多政府债务，包括国库券，同时减少对美联储储备的持有。

And the hope would be that as a result of extensive banking deregulation that makes it cheaper in capital terms and liquidity terms to hold government paper, banks will choose to hold a bit more government debt including treasury bills and a bit less by way of Fed reserves.

如果银行业放松监管意味着银行对储备金的需求减少，那么这将允许凯文在不引发货币市场压力的情况下适度缩减资产负债表。

To the extent that banking deregulation means that the banks desire less reserves, that would then allow Kevin to reduce the balance sheet some without stressing money markets.

但如果他在不改变框架或银行对储备金需求的情况下现在就试图缩减资产负债表，唯一的结果将是货币市场立即重现我们去年十月和十二月所经历的压力，他将在一周内再次回到扩大资产负债表的状态。

But if he tried to reduce the balance sheet today without changing the framework or banks' demand for reserves in the framework, all that would happen is you would have an immediate return to money market stress of the kind we saw in October and December, and he'd be back in balance sheet expansion again within a week.

他明白这一点，所以这不会发生。

He knows that, and that's why it's not gonna happen.

你一向说话很谨慎，克里希纳，但你对美联储的宽松政策似乎相当放松。

You're always very measured in what you say, Krishna, but you seem pretty relaxed about a wash Fed.

我们谈到了利率。

We talked about the interest rates.

他的利率设定方式显然并不激进。

Certainly, doesn't have an outlandish approach to setting interest rates.

关于与财政部更好协调，或在资产负债表政策上与财政部进行软性协调的问题。

And on this question of better coordination with the treasury or kind of soft coordination with the treasury over balance sheet policy.

许多经济学家指出，如果在一个美联储资产负债表庞大的环境中，财政政策和货币政策都高度独立，那么政策的两个方面相互干扰的可能性会很大。

A lot of economists have pointed to the possibility that if you have super independent fiscal policy and monetary policy in an environment of a big Fed balance sheet, then you have got quite a strong possibility of one arm of policy getting in the way of the other.

因此，某种程度的协调似乎并不荒谬。

So it doesn't seem crazy to have a degree of coordination.

我想问题是，我们拥有的是良好的协调、协同的政策，还是糟糕的协调——比如特朗普公开施压要求降息？

I guess the question is, do we have good coordination, joined up policy versus bad coordination, which is Trump going on true social and demanding interest rate cuts?

但你似乎认为平衡将会是健康的。

But you seem to think the balance is gonna be a healthy one.

我想我可以说，关于沃什的粗略担忧——即他对通胀和利率极度鹰派，对量化紧缩也极度鹰派——其实经不起仔细推敲，尤其是在当前的背景下。

I guess the way I would put it is that I think that the crude version of concerns about Warsh, which is he's super hawkish on inflation interest rates, and he's super hawkish on QT, just don't bear particularly close examination, certainly not in the here and now context.

我们真正应该担心的不是这些。

That's not what we should be worrying about.

这并不意味着在‘洗牌’美联储的情况下，就没有任何脆弱点或我们需要注意的问题。

That doesn't mean that there are no points of vulnerability or things that we should be attentive to in the case of a wash Fed.

正如我之前所指出的，在货币政策方面，我认为质疑传统美联储模型和依赖滞后数据的某些不足是合理且正当的。

As I indicated earlier, on monetary policy, I think the question is, it's fine and indeed, I think very legitimate to critique some of the shortcomings of traditional Fed models and backward looking data dependence.

但要找到一种连贯、系统且沟通清晰的替代方案，将非常困难。

But it's going to be very hard to replace that with something that is coherent and systematic and well communicated.

如果沃尔什抛弃了旧有的做法，却没有建立起一套完整连贯的替代方案，情况可能会严重出错。

And that could go badly wrong if Walsh were to turn his back on the old ways of doing business without having figured out a fully coherent set of approach or set of approaches to replace it.

关于资产负债表，我认为沃什会比许多人认为的更加谨慎。

With respect to the balance sheet, I think Warsh is going to be much more careful than many think.

然而，我们今天已经在市场上为凯文过去关于资产负债表的言论以及由此引发的、关于沃什时代美联储资产负债表应对机制的不确定性付出了代价。

Nonetheless, though, we are already paying the price today in markets for Kevin's past comments on the balance sheet and the uncertainty that this has created about, if you like, the Fed's balance sheet reaction function in a Warsh era.

由于我在纽约联储担任高级顾问期间亲历过缩减购债恐慌，我可以告诉你，至少我个人始终认为，央行试图重新设定市场对其未来资产负债表政策方向的预期，可能具有极大的危险性。

And having lived through the taper tantrum at the New York Fed where I was a senior advisor, I will tell you that I at least have always taken away from that episode how potentially dangerous it can be for central banks to try to reset market expectations as to the approach that they're going to take to their balance sheets going forward.

当然，我绝对不预测会出现一场‘沃什式缩减恐慌’，但我认为，他必须极其谨慎地更新并澄清市场对他的资产负债表观点的理解，引导市场预期。

Now, I'm absolutely not predicting a wash taper tantrum, but I am saying that he is going to have to move very carefully to update and clarify markets and guide markets as to his thinking on the balance sheet himself.

此外，正如你所指出的，美联储与财政部达成协议可能带来一些好处，但也可能存在非常令人担忧的负面影响。

And then separately, as you suggested, a Fed Treasury Accord has potentially some upsides and potentially some very concerning downsides.

关键在于细节：这究竟是一个以中央银行高度独立为原则、并在适当情况下寻求合作以实施政策的明智合作机制，还是一个导致中央银行独立性逐步削弱的工具？债券市场无疑会保持警惕，直到我们明确它究竟是哪一种类型。

And the devil really would be in the detail as to whether this was a sensible vehicle for a cooperation starting from the principle of very firm independence on the side of the central bank, but looking to cooperate where appropriate to implement policy, or whether this would be a vehicle for some erosion of that central bank's independence, the bond market certainly will will be wary until we find out exactly which type it is.

在某种程度上，如果他无法争取到大多数同事至少部分的支持，那么这一切都无关紧要。

At some level, all of this is irrelevant if he doesn't bring a majority of his colleagues on side, at least to to to some degree.

你提到我们已经在市场上付出了代价。

You talked about we're already paying the price in the markets.

他所付出的代价不仅源于过去关于资产负债表的言论，更因为他是在一个高度政治化的环境中被特朗普选中的，当时曾广泛谈论需要降低利率等问题。

He's paying the price not just for former comments about the balance sheet, but the fact that he has been chosen by Donald Trump in a very politicized environment where a lot was said about the need to lower interest rates and etcetera, etcetera.

所以，正如你所说，他需要做一番修复工作。

So as you said, he has a repair job to do.

我们所读到的关于他的所有信息，都显示他有一个非常好的背景。

Everything that we've read about him, we had a very good profile.

《政客》杂志对他有一个非常出色的报道。

The Politico had a very good profile.

他看起来不像是那种会像公牛闯进瓷器店一样莽撞行事的人。

He seems to be not someone who would go in as a bull in a China shop.

从年轻时起，他就展现出很强的社交能力，善于赢得他人支持。

He seems, from a young age, has shown a very good networking ability and ability to win people over.

你认为你会看到很多人所预期的情况吗？即FOMC内部会出现与过去相比更明显的分歧？

Do you think you're gonna see what a lot of people are expecting, which is very split boats relative to the past on the FMC?

你认为杰伊·鲍威尔会留任吗？这也会让他稍微更难一些。

And do you think Jay Powell's gonna stick around, which will also make it slightly more difficult for him?

让我倒过来回答这个问题。

Let me take that in reverse order.

首先，我认为特朗普政府最近一个月对美联储的攻击不断升级，最终导致司法部对鲍威尔发出传票，这大大增加了鲍威尔留任的可能性。

First of all, I think it I think the the recent month's escalation of Trump attack administration attacks on the Fed, culminating in the issuance of the DOJ subpoenas against Powell, have made it a lot more likely that Powell will stay on.

我不认为他原本打算在五月之后继续留任。

I don't think he was actually intending to stay on beyond May.

我认为这些事件使他留任的可能性更大了。

I think it's made it more likely that he will.

话虽如此，我确实认为，除非司法部的调查提前结束，否则鲍威尔无论如何都不能辞职，因为他不能给人留下是在压力下离职的印象。

With that said and certainly, don't think he can possibly step down Powell at a minimum, unless the DOJ investigation is closed down beforehand because he can't look like he's leaving under pressure.

话虽如此，我认为任命凯文·沃什担任这一职位，使得鲍威尔更难为自己延长任期找到合理理由，因为沃什长期以来一直被视为担任央行行长的合法人选；而如果特朗普任命的是他自己的顾问，比如凯文·哈塞特，情况就会不同。

With that said, I think and the appointment of Kevin Warsh, who is somebody who has long been regarded as a legitimate candidate to run the Central Bank, makes it harder for Powell to justify staying on for some extended period of time than would have been the case if Trump had appointed one of his own advisers, for instance, like Kevin Hassett into that seat.

关于委员会，市场上很多人认为美联储将变得像英格兰银行一样，所有决策都将通过类似五比四的投票决定。

With respect to the committee, there is a lot of a lot of folks in the market seem to think that the Fed is going to become the Bank of England, and everything's going to be decided on the Fed equivalent of a five four vote.

行长是否能获得所需的第五票？

And does the governor or does the governor not have the fifth vote he needs?

最终走向这种局面并非不可能，但这并不是最可能的情况。

It's not inconceivable that's where it ends up, but it's not the base case.

最可能的情况仍然是，美联储将像以往一样通过主席及其核心盟友之间的结构化协商来制定政策，通常是指‘三人核心’——纽约联储主席和副主席，由这个领导团队与更广泛的委员会进行协商。

The base case is still that the Fed will make policy the way the Fed has always made policy, which is through a structured negotiation between the chairman and his senior allies, typically the troika figures, the New York Fed president, and the vice chair, a structured negotiation between that leadership group and the wider committee.

由于你所提到的所有原因，今年的这种协商过程将变得更加紧张，但我仍然认为它会通过这种结构化协商的方式进行。

That negotiation will be a lot more stressed this year for all the reasons that you articulate, but I still think of it as operating by way of that structured negotiation.

在这个过程中，谁拥有杠杆力至关重要。

Within that, it matters who has the leverage.

因此，沃什在美联储董事会中的盟友越多，空缺席位越多，特朗普就能任命越多新官员。

So the more allies Walsh has on the Fed board, the more seats that have vacated, allowing Trump to appoint new officials.

这会增强他在这一协商中的影响力。

It increases his leverage within that negotiation.

但我认为，最终结果仍很可能是一种协商达成的方案，而不是每天上演投票如何分裂的戏剧性场面。

But I think the odds are still that what we get is predominantly a negotiated outcome rather than a drum roll and drama as to which way the vote is going to break on a given day.

当然，英格兰银行与美联储的关键区别在于，美联储主席先投票，而英格兰银行行长是最后投票。

And, of course, the crucial difference between the Bank of England and the Fed is that Fed, the chairman votes first and that the Bank of England, the governor votes last.

在绝大多数情况下，当他们坐到桌前时，决策实际上已经基本确定了。

In almost every case, the decision has essentially been arrived at by the time they sit down at the table.

之所以能达成共识，是因为美联储做出决策的方式，是通过主席主导，形成一个大多数人都能接受的中心观点，即使这并非他们最理想的首选。

And the reason it's been arrived at is because, again, the way the Fed makes decisions is through a chair led effort to craft a central view that the vast majority of people can sign up to, even if it's not their very first best preference.

不管怎么说，我认为这是一种更优越的中央银行运作方式。

For whatever it's worth, I actually think that is a superior way to run a central bank.

我不认为中央银行真的能够同时运作九种，或者在美联储的情况下，十九种不同的反应函数。

I don't believe that a central bank can actually operate with nine or in the Fed's case, 19 different reaction functions.

我认为它必须有一个反应函数，这意味着需要构建一个中心观点。

I think it has to have a reaction function, and that means something that's crafted, a central view that's crafted.

因此，我认为沃什会朝着这个方向努力。

So that's where I think Warsh will try to go.

我认为旧委员会会试图与他达成折中。

I do think that the old committee will try to meet him halfway.

但这种折中的可能性程度，将取决于经济状况，以及它们是否给予旧委员会足够的空间，以应对通胀风险和劳动力市场压力来向沃什靠拢。

But the extent to which that's possible will depend both on economic conditions, whether they give the old committee the slack to meet Warsh halfway in terms of inflation risks and labor market pressures.

这还取决于沃什自身的言行，以及特朗普与美联储之间的互动方式。

And it'll depend on Warsh's own conduct and the conduct of Trump relative to the Fed.

我认为，我们的希望是能够保留某种形式的旧有政策制定方式，但今年它将面临独特的压力。

I think the hope is that we can preserve some version of the old way of of making policy, but it is going to be under unique stress this year.

一如既往地清晰明了，非常有用且有趣。

Crystal clear as always and extremely useful and interesting.

非常感谢你。

Thank you so much.

能和你交流真是非常愉快，斯蒂芬。

Huge pleasure, Steph.

和你一起做这个总是很有趣。

It's always fun to do it with you.

感谢收听彭博社的《特朗普经济学》。

Thanks for listening to Trumponomics from Bloomberg.

本期节目由我，斯蒂芬妮·弗兰德斯主持，并邀请了克里希纳·古哈作为嘉宾。

It was hosted by me, Stephanie Flanders, and I was joined by Krishna Guha.

《特朗普经济学》由萨马尔·萨迪和摩西·安达姆制作。

Trumponomics was produced by Samar Sadi and Moses Andam.

音效设计由布莱克·梅普尔斯和亚伦·卡斯珀负责。

The sound design was by Blake Maples and Aaron Casper.

为了帮助其他人找到这个节目，请在您收听的平台给予高分评价和评论。

To help others find the show, please rate and review it highly wherever you listen.

大家好，我是米歇尔·侯赛因，二十多年来我一直在BBC工作。

Hello, I'm Michelle Hussain and for more than twenty years, I was at the BBC.

但在我播报新闻头条的整个过程中，我都希望超越当天的新闻内容。

But all the time I was delivering the headlines, I wanted to go further than the news of the day.

花更多时间与塑造我们世界的人交流。

To spend more time with the people shaping our world.

而这正是我在这档播客中所做的事情——与从奈杰尔·法拉奇到

And that's what I'm doing here on this podcast, speaking to people from Nigel Farage's

让我们爱你试图超越的需求需要被教导

Let's love you trying over needs to be taught

科技记者卡拉·斯威舍的对话。

to tech journalist Kara Swisher.

科技行业正在失控。

And the tech industry is running wild.

你知道，他们得到了想要的东西，股价也大幅上涨。

You know, they've gotten what they wanted, and they've seen a huge run up in their stock prices.

这里将成为一个每周都能听到一场关键对话的地方，帮助你理解这个世界。

This will be a place where every weekend, you can count on one essential conversation to help make sense of the world.

所以，请加入我，收听并订阅来自彭博周末的《米歇尔·侯赛因秀》，在你收听播客的任何平台都可以找到。

So please join me, listen, and subscribe to the Michelle Hussein Show from Bloomberg weekend, wherever you get your podcasts.

它应该提出有趣的问题。

It's supposed to ask interesting questions.