为什么AI代理可能需要人类进行比你想象中更多的交易

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今天的话题是代理式商业的未来。

Today's topic is the future of agentic commerce.

出席讨论的是 a16z 的合伙人诺亚·莱文和 Dragonfly 的初级合伙人罗比·彼得森。

Here to discuss are Noah Levine, partner at a16z, and Robbie Petersen, junior partner at Dragonfly.

欢迎，诺亚和罗比。

Welcome, Noah and Robbie.

谢谢你们邀请我们。

Thanks for having us.

是的。

Yeah.

非常兴奋能来到这里。

Super excited to be here.

最近几周，代理商业领域出现了许多新的技术方案，而你们两位本周都撰文探讨了这一未来的前景。

So the agentic commerce space has seen a number of new technical offerings in recent weeks, and both of you wrote pieces this week on what that future looks like.

实际上这非常有趣，因为你们的愿景略有不同。

It was pretty interesting actually because your visions differ a bit.

不过，诺亚，我们先从你开始吧？

But Noah, why don't we start with you?

描述一下你认为这一切将走向何方。

Describe where you think this is all headed.

是的，当然。

Yeah, for sure.

我的意思是，最好先说明一点，由于像Cloud Code这样的平台，我们看到了大量新开发者的涌现。

I mean, I think it's helpful to start by saying that we've seen this massive catalyst in new developers by virtue of platforms like Cloud Code.

因此，我们看到的是，这些开发者对新服务产生了全新的需求。

And as a result of that, I think what we're seeing is that there's this whole new demand for new services that these developers want to use.

随着MPP和X402等新协议的出现，我们看到一类全新的商家出现了，我称之为无头商家——这些商家的身份对开发者来说完全不可见或无从知晓。

And so with the advent of new protocols like MPP and X402, what we're seeing is there's this new class of merchants, which I kind of titled headless merchants, which effectively the developer has no insight or has no idea who they necessarily are.

但当开发者指令他们的代理去购买某样东西时，这个代理会主动去发现这些商家，并以每笔交易为基础支付费用，以获取这些服务。

But when they're going in and instructing their agent to go and purchase something, that agent is going out discovering them and then paying on a per transaction basis to effectively get those services.

我认为这将催生一波新的B2B商业浪潮，开发者正在寻找这些新工具。

And I think that this is going to create a new wave of sort of B2B commerce where developers are looking for these new tools.

而他们不再需要主动表明身份，或通过网站去寻找这些商家，而是能够通过Cloud Code本身实现更自然的发现。

And rather than them necessarily dictating who they are or going and finding them via website, they're going to be able to see them a more natural discovery through Cloud Code itself.

Robbie，你呢？

And Robbie, what about you?

你能描述一下你在X平台上那篇短文里提出的想法吗？

Why don't you describe the vision that you laid out in your little essay on X?

当然。

Sure.

是的，总体上我同意诺亚对发展趋势的看法。

Yeah, would say broadly, I agree with Noah maybe on the direction of travel.

我想我们可能的分歧在于，代理商业在近期的规模究竟有多大。

I would say maybe where we disagree is probably the magnitude of how big agentic commerce is, especially in the near term.

我认为，事情发展的大致图景可以分为三类。

I think my vision of, you know, how things kind of play out is, it just kind of broadly fit into three categories.

第一类是商业代理，直观来看，这些代理被部署在企业内部。

So one is commercial agents, and intuitively these are agents that are deployed kind of within businesses.

第二类，我认为是消费者代理。

Two, I would say you have kind of consumer agents.

这些代理会增强我们的个人生活，或者帮助我们购买更多消费品。

So these would be agents that sort of augment you know our personal lives or you know helping us buy kind of more consumer items.

最后一个我想说的是这些自下而上的代理，这更符合开放爪现象。

And then the last one I would say is these kind of bottom up agents, and this is more consistent with kind of the open claw phenomena.

这些代理是真正自主的，并且在现实世界中进行交易。

And these are agents that are actually autonomous and actually transacting in the real world.

我认为95%以上的代理活动最终都会是这些商业代理。

And I think 95% plus of kind of you know most agentic you know activities ultimately going to be these commercial agents.

我认为直观上这与今天SaaS市场的状况一致，你知道，95%以上的软件可能都部署在企业或政府机构中，对吧？

And I think intuitively that's consistent with how you know if you look at like the SaaS market today, you know it's 95% plus of software is probably deployed within businesses, right, in governments.

我认为对于代理来说，情况也会是一样的。

And I think the same thing will be true you know for agents.

我认为每个人似乎都忽略的一个细微差别是，代理本质上是自动化工具。

And I think maybe the nuance that everyone seems to be missing is that you know an agent fundamentally what it does is it automates.

但这种自动化并不一定意味着它必须实际进行消费。

But that automation doesn't necessarily mean that it has to actually spend.

我认为人们把这两者混为一谈，然后就简单地得出结论，认为代理商业应该规模巨大。

And I think people have kind of conflated the two, and then just you know sort of drawn the conclusion that agentic commerce should be massive.

所以我认为这属于商业层面。

So I think that's on the sort of the commercial side.

而在消费层面，我也非常怀疑代理是否会真正代表个人自主进行交易。

And then I think on the consumer side, I'm also very skeptical that agents are actually gonna be transacting on behalf of, you know, individuals autonomously.

我认为，人们常引用的关于代理商业的典型乐观观点是：我会告诉这个代理，去帮我预订一趟去东京的旅行。

And I think, you know, the common sort of, you know, bull case for agentic commerce that people love to cite is, hey, I'm gonna tell this agent, you know, go book a trip to Tokyo, let's say.

它会找到酒店，抓取大量数据，阅读评论，查看照片。

And it's gonna, you know, it's gonna find the hotels, it's gonna scrape a bunch of sort of data, it's gonna say, you know, it's gonna read reviews, look at photos.

它可能还会访问我的日历和所有偏好信息。

Maybe it'll have my calendar and all my preferences as well.

最终它会说：好了，我已经帮你订好了，你根本不需要从手头的事情中分心，就这样。

And it'll ultimately say, okay, you know, I booked this thing, you know, you never had to kind of look up from what you were doing and that's it.

我认为这建立在一系列隐含的假设之上。

And I think that's kind of that rests on a bunch of implicit assumptions.

其中之一是，我们愿意将所有这些事务完全委托给代理。

One of them being that, you know, we will be willingly, you know, you know, we will actually want to outsource all of that to an agent.

我认为更现实的路径是，我会让这个代理帮我，比如我要去东京旅行，帮我预订。

And I think the more realistic path is, hey, I'm going to ask this agent to you know, I'm gonna tell it I want to go you know book a trip to Tokyo.

然后它会给我提供几个选项，并进一步询问，比如：你想在东京的哪个区域住？

And then it's actually gonna give me options, and then it's gonna ask follow-up questions and it may say, you know, where in Tokyo do you want to stay?

它还会给我一些评价，告诉你这家酒店和那家酒店的评价分别是怎样的，等等。

And hey here are some you know reviews, and this is what they're saying about this hotel versus that hotel, and so on.

我认为人们忽略的另一个细微之处是，偏好并不是一成不变的。

And I think the other nuance people are missing is you know preferences aren't a static thing.

我认为这些偏好最终是在探索过程中逐渐显现出来的。

I think they're ultimately revealed in the process of discovery itself.

这不仅适用于预订旅行，买 groceries 或者买衣服时也是如此。

And I think that's not just true for you know whether it's booking a trip, think that's also true for you know whether you're buying groceries and it certainly drove you're buying clothes.

你其实还是想亲自去看看衣服的样子，等等。

You know you actually want to go see what the clothes look like and so on.

所以我认为，大多数消费决策中，代理都无法掌握全部上下文。

So I think just most consumer decisions, the agent won't have the full context.

而且我认为，再次强调，还有许多这些定性的输入，只有在你经历这个过程时才会真正发现。

And I think you know again, I think there's all these qualitative inputs as well that you don't actually discover until you go through that process.

而一个代表你完成所有这些操作的代理，实际上从未捕捉到消费者最终想要的那种细微差别。

And you know an agent doing all that on your behalf never actually captured that kind of nuance that the consumer ultimately wants.

所以这主要是从消费者角度来说的。

So that would be on the consumer side.

然后根据诺亚的观点，我认为确实出现了一种新兴的类别，我会称这些为自下而上的代理。

And then to Noah's point, do think there is this emergent sort of category, and I would call these like bottom up agents.

而且再次强调，这在某种程度上是由开放布料现象所推动的，正如诺亚所指出的那样。

And again this was sort of catalyzed by you know the open cloth phenomenon to kind of Noah's point.

我认为这个类别将会增长。

I do think this category will grow.

不过话说回来，它仍然处于非常早期的阶段。

I think that said it is still extremely nascent.

如果你只看数据，实际上使用这些代理进行交易的人并不多。

And if you just look at the data, there aren't that many, you know, people who are actually using these agents to transact.

这更多是推测性的，无论是X4O2还是MTP，都很大程度上是猜测。

It's more, you know, lot of it's been sort of speculative, whether it's X4O2 or MTP.

所以我只是觉得现在还太早了，而且市场整体上，至少社交情绪已经超前了。

So I just think it's very early, and I think the market's just generally, or at least at a minimum social sentiments got kind of gone ahead of itself here.

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，老实说，当我读你们两人的文章时，我在想，这可能会分阶段推进。

I mean, honestly, when I was reading both of your pieces, I was thinking that this will probably roll out in stages.

所以，尽管你们勾勒的愿景有些不同，但我并不觉得哪一方是对或错，因为我觉得它们可能在不同时间点都会是对的。

And so even though the visions that you laid out were a little bit different, like, I didn't think either was kind of right or wrong because I was like, well, they're probably both gonna be right at different times.

那我们不妨聊聊当下这个阶段，因为有一件事让我觉得很有意思：在你们两人的文章，或者你们写的其他内容中，我都看到你们提到了信用卡如何与稳定币结合。

So maybe let's talk about just this moment right now where things are kind of getting built out because something that was interesting to me was that in both of your pieces or just in various other things that you wrote, I saw that you both referenced how stable sorry, how credit cards will be fitting in with stablecoins.

而且我觉得你们俩都对代理使用信用卡与稳定币的比例有自己的看法。

And I think you both have ideas on how much agents will use credit cards versus stablecoins.

所以，你能谈谈你认为这两种支付方式在这一早期阶段将如何被决定，或者它们的发展轨迹会是怎样的吗？

So yeah, can you talk about how you think that will be decided or how the trajectory of both of those types of payments will go in this early phase?

你们俩谁先说都可以。

And either one of you can go first.

是的，我可以谈谈这个。

Yeah, I can touch on that.

不，我认为这和几年前人们讨论稳定币将取代所有消费者对商户支付时的讨论非常相似。

No, I think, look, and I think it's very similar to the discourse that was happening a few years ago when people were talking about, well, stablecoins are going to replace all of consumer to merchant payments.

结果发现，除了提供许多增值服务外，这些网络还具有强大的林迪效应——消费者已经长期使用卡片，商户也长期接受它们。

And it turns out that the networks beyond a lot of the additional value added services they provide, there is a huge sort of Lindy effect where you have consumers that have been using cards for a very long time.

商户也长期接受它们。

You have merchants who've been accepting them for a very long time.

因此，我认为很自然地，与稳定币关联的卡片最终成为了消费者对商户支付的首选方式。

And so I think it was very natural that for example, stablecoin linked cards ultimately became the preferred form for consumer to merchant payments.

我认为在代理商业中也正在发生类似的情况，人们出来宣称使用稳定币相比卡片有诸多优势。

And I think a similar thing is kind of happening in agentic commerce where people are coming out and saying, well, there's all these benefits of using stablecoins versus cards.

但他们可能没有意识到，对大多数普通消费者而言，他们更熟悉使用卡片，并且更倾向于使用卡片。

But what they don't maybe realize is that for most the average consumer, they're much more familiar with using a card and they would prefer to use one.

我还觉得，过去有很多观点认为代理无法持有卡片，这种技术行不通。

And I also think there's been a lot of arguments that have said agents can't hold cards and this technology doesn't work.

但如果你深入看一下，就会发现像Apple Pay所使用的代币技术，与Visa和MasterCard等网络用于支持代理商业的技术完全相同。

But I think if you look under the hood, you can see things like the same technology that powers Apple Pay with tokens is the exact same technology that the networks like Visa and MasterCard are using to power agentic commerce.

因此，我认为从起点来看，网络机构需要更长时间来建立标准，并使卡片适应这种新型商业形态。

And so I think from a starting point, it's going to take longer for the networks to establish their standards and to make cards conducive with this new form of commerce.

但从技术角度来看，没有任何东西会阻止卡片发挥作用。

But I think there's nothing from a technical standpoint that is going to stop cards from working.

我前面提到的，再次呼应Robbie的观点，对于传统的消费者对商户交易，比如我要预订航班，人们会有自己的偏好。

What I kind of talked about is, again, I think kind of to Robbie's point, like for a traditional consumer to merchant transaction, like if I'm looking to book a flight, people are gonna have preferences.

他们倾向于使用卡片来获取积分等奖励。

They're gonna wanna use cards to get things like points.

此外，退款和欺诈防护等功能也很有帮助。

There's an element of chargebacks and fraud, which is helpful.

我认为，这可能是代理商业中比较平淡无奇的一面，而这一领域很可能最终由信用卡网络主导。

I think that is probably the more boring side of agentic commerce and is likely going to be won largely by the card networks.

但话说回来，再想想这个正在形成的全新开发者生态系统，我们看到出现了大量新商户，这些商户可能只是几个朋友在地下室里，用几整天的时间通过氛围编程搭建起来的。

But that being said, think again, this whole new sort of developer ecosystem that's forming, what we're seeing is that there's all these new merchants that are being established that are maybe a couple of buddies in their basement that are building a merchant in a couple of days via vibe coding.

对于这些人来说，传统收单机构和处理方要对他们进行授信以便接受卡片支付，将会有些困难。

For those people, it's gonna be somewhat challenging for traditional acquirers and processors to underwrite them so they can accept cards.

我认为稳定币正逐渐成为一种新的数字现金，就像梅西百货接受信用卡，而街边小贩却只收现金一样。

And I think stablecoins are kind of merging as this new digital cash similar to how you'll have Macy's will accept cards, but you'll have street vendors on the corner who are accepting cash.

我认为对于这一群体来说，稳定币实际上是一个非常有用的解决方案。

I think that for that group, stablecoins are actually a very useful solution.

实际上我有个小问题，在这个领域里，谁会是相当于街头小贩接受现金的角色呢？

And actually just a quick question, who would be the equivalent of that in this world that would be the equivalent of the street vendor accepting cash?

是的，举个好例子，我之前做的报告或文章中研究过X402的交易量，其中有一个非常出色的数据提供商叫Allium，他们运行着一个X402服务器。

Yeah, so I mean, a great example is a couple of, or the report I did or the article I did before, I was looking at X402 volume and there's this really great data provider Allium who has an X402 server.

我没有Allium的账户，所以只是想获取几个数据点。

I didn't have an account in Allium, so I just wanted to get a couple of data points.

我花了大约30或40美分，就完成了整个报告的构建。

I was able to spend, I think it was 30 or 40¢ to build the entire report.

没有卡片非常简单。

No card was very easy.

我认为对于这样的情况，数据是一个很好的应用场景。

I think for something like that, data is a great use case for that.

那罗比呢？

And Robbie?

是的。

Yeah.

我唯一想补充的是，我认为确实如此。

The only thing I would add is I think yeah.

我认为诺亚提出了很多很好的观点。

And I think Noah makes a bunch of great points there.

我觉得他的文章实际上是迄今为止关于卡网络与区块链如何演进的最佳文章。

I thought his piece was actually the best piece that anyone's sort of written on, you know, how this how how things evolve at least with respect to card networks versus blockchains.

我认为现实是，如今两者都不够完善，而且各自都有不足之处。

I think the reality is like today both are insufficient, and they're insufficient in their own ways.

所以如果你看一下银行卡网络，它们所解决的问题实际上非常非常困难，我认为很多人并没有完全理解这一点，那就是风险评分和相关问题。

So if you look at, you know, card networks, what they've solved, which is actually very, very difficult to solve, I don't think a lot of people fully understand this is is risk scoring and off.

它们实际上在验证每一笔交易，这并不像简单地说‘这笔交易没问题，放行吧’这么简单。

So they're actually like authenticating each of these, know transactions, and it's not as simple as just saying, hey this transaction's fine, let's you know let it through.

而是说，我们有大量复杂的数据点，然后我们评估一个置信区间，判断‘这笔交易可能是欺诈的吗？还是不是？’

It's, hey we've like all these you know sophisticated data points that we're looking at, and then we're assigning some competence interval to like, okay could this be fraudulent, could it not be?

所以它们已经解决了这个问题。

So they have solved that.

而在结算环节，它们可能还稍显不足，因为结算并不是一件偶然的事情。

Where there may be a little more insufficient is on the settlement piece, Because settlement is not you know, incident.

这其中有很多结构性原因，我们可以展开讨论，但正是在这里它们存在不足。

There's a bunch of structural reasons you know for that which we can unpack, but that is where they're insufficient.

相反，如果你看一下区块链，它们实现了即时结算，直观上这是一个全球性的资产账本，实时同步，非常适合代理交易。

Now conversely if you look at blockchains, you know they have this instant settlement you know intuitively this is a global you know asset ledger that syncs in real time, you know which is very conducive for agentic transactions.

但它们尚未解决的是银行卡网络已经解决的风险评分问题。

What they have not solved conversely is you know the actual risk scoring that the card networks have solved.

所以我认为它们各自都有不足之处，而且两者都还有大量工作要做。

So I think they're insufficient in their own ways, and I think they both have a lot of work to do.

我认为，它们各自都会逐步趋同，并朝着同一个愿景不断演进。

And I think each of them respectfully will kind of continue to converge and build upon the same vision.

我认为，至少就这些我所谓的自下而上的代理而言——正如诺亚提到的，这可能是一群普通的开发者，只是在自家车库里随意搭建各种代理。

I think the reason at least with respect to these kind of bottom up agents as I would call them, and as Noah alluded to you know, this could be you know a bunch of you know people just hacky devs kind of spinning up you know different agents kind of you know in their garage or whatever.

就这些应用场景而言，我认为区块链胜出的原因并非技术层面，而是因为它们是开放的、无需许可的，且不受任何监管束缚，对吧？

I think with respect to those use cases, I think blockchains win for a different reason than a non technical reason, which is they're open and they're permissionless and they're unencumbered by sort of any regulation, right?

换句话说，在区块链上构建相比在传统支付系统上构建，摩擦要少得多。

And maybe said differently, there's just way less friction building on blockchains versus building on traditional you know rails.

像维萨和万事达这样的公司是上市公司，有股东，有机构交易对手，它们本质上无法承担像区块链那样高的风险。

And you know Visa and you know MasterCard, these are public companies that have you know that have shareholders, that have institutional counterparties and they will inherently not be able to take the same amount of risk that you know built like a blockchain could.

因为区块链没有股东，也不面临这种风险。

Because blockchain doesn't have you know shareholders, they don't have this risk.

因此，我认为出于这个原因，大部分这类实验实际上确实发生在链上，但可能并非人们直观所想的那样。

So I think for that reason, most of this experimentation probably actually does happen on on chain, but maybe that's not for the reason that most people are thinking intuitively.

好的。

Okay.

所以我想问一下，关于你所说的自下而上的代理，还有另一个你提到的类型，我不太记得名字了，但我很好奇，对于自下而上的代理，它们仍然需要与人类进行互动吧？

So one thing that I did wanna ask about was for like the way, so the way that this goes with what you call the bottom up agents, and then I don't remember what you called the other ones, but I was just curious, know, for the bottom up agents, they would still need to have some back and forth with like their human, right?

还是说，它们是如何实现更高程度的自主性的？

Or like, how is it that they are more autonomous?

是的。

Yeah.

所以我的理解是，你可以把另一类看作商业代理和消费代理。

So the way the way I would frame this is, you know, if you're looking at kind of these, the other side is commercial agents and then kind of consumer agents.

我认为它们更偏向自上而下，因为它们最终会通过某种软件供应商分发，至少在商业领域是这样。

And the reason I would say these are more top down is because I think they will ultimately you know be distributed and there's they're gonna be distributed via you know some software vendor probably, at least on the commercial side.

而在消费领域，可能是OpenAI通过ChatGPT，或者Anthropic通过Claude来分发。

And then on the consumer side maybe it's you know OpenAI you know distributing this via you know Chateapeteer or Anthropic you know through Claude.

但在这两种情况下，都会有人参与其中，对吧？

But there will be some human in the loop in both of those contexts, right?

而我认为，对于这些自下而上的代理来说，它们实际上是具有代理性的。

Whereas I think with respect to these bottom up agents, they actually are you know agentic.

比如从语义上讲，你确实可以在这种语境下使用‘代理性’这个词。

Like I think semantically you can actually use you know, the word word agentic in that context.

对吧？

Right?

它们将是完全自主的，会自行获取资源，并调用这些API等等。

And they will be fully autonomous and they will be procuring kind of their own resources and, you know, calling these APIs and and so on.

而且不一定需要人类介入。

And there won't be a human necessarily in the loop.

我困惑的是，谁来创建它们呢？

Like, what I'm confused about is who will create them?

我的意思是，它们怎么创建自己？听起来你好像说它们能自我创建，但我搞不懂这一点。

Well, like, how do they create them it almost sounds like you're saying they create themselves, but I don't understand that.

不是的。

No.

我认为，它们仍然会由人类创建，并且从根本上说，仍然会代表人类服务。

I think, like, they'll still be created, you know, by a human, and they'll still, you know, fundamentally be serving, you know, on behalf of a human.

也许在某些时候，代理会启动其他代理等等。

Maybe at some point, you have agents spinning up other agents and so on.

对吧？

Right?

所以，是的，从它们为人类服务的角度来看，人类仍然在循环中，但限制会宽泛得多。

So yes, there will be human in the loop insofar as they will be serving a human, but the guardrails will be much wider.

我认为这就是关键的细微差别：对于这些商业和消费类代理，限制非常严格。

And I think that's kind of the nuances is you know on these commercial and consumer agents, guardrails are very narrow.

而且，事实上，它们甚至都不进行交易。

And if anything, they aren't even transacting.

更像是，我是一个研究助手，会帮你决定订哪家酒店，但我不会真的去订酒店。

It's more, hey, I'm a research assistant that's gonna help you figure out what hotel to book, but I'm not actually gonna book the hotel.

归根结底，最终授权这笔交易的还是你，也许你已经把银行卡信息都保存好了，所以这就像一次Apple Pay交易，对吧？

Like at the end of the day, it's gonna be you that actually authorizes that transaction, and maybe you already have your card details you know plugged in, so it's just like an Apple Pay transaction, right?

再说到商业方面，我想说的是，比如一个Salesforce代理，对吧？

And again on the commercial side, I don't you know it's hey it's a Salesforce agent, right?

它会出去进行自动化的销售推广。

Which is going out and doing automated you know sales outreach.

但这并不意味着代理本身必须完成交易，对吧？

That does not necessitate the agent actually transacting, right?

同样，也许是一个自动化财务职能的财务代理。

And then similarly maybe it's a you know finance agent that's you know automating finance functions.

所以这些代理都不需要实际完成交易。

So none of them necessitates an agent actually transacting.

相反，我认为这些自下而上的代理确实是自主的，它们真的会出去做事。

Whereas conversely I think with these with the bottom up agents you know they actually are autonomous and they're actually going out and doing things.

它们不仅可能与这些API交互，从人类那里获取资源，还可能与其他代理进行交互。

And maybe they're interfacing not just with with these APIs and procuring resources from humans, but they're probably also gonna be interfacing with other agents.

我认为这是本质上不同的一个类别。

And I think that's a qualitatively different category.

是的，我忘了是你们哪一位提到过这个例子，但我觉得你们为获取某些数据支付极少金额的情况，很可能就是一个很好的例子。

Yeah, I forget which one of you said this, but I guess that example of the data that you're procuring for like a really small amount of money would probably be a good example of that.

还有另一件事，我认为你们两位都提到过，或者在这次对话中都涉及到了：很多时候，由于欺诈的可能性，付款实际上无法即时完成。

So one other thing that I think both of, it might've been both of your pieces or even in this conversation that you both referenced was a lot of times payments actually cannot be instantaneous because of the possibility of fraud.

那么，你认为这一点在代理式商业中如何体现，以及整个系统该如何构建呢？

So how do you think that gets factored into agentic commerce and how this is all built out?

是的。

Yeah.

诺亚，你想不想说一下？

Noah, do you wanna Yeah, take

当然。

for sure.

我的意思是，如果回到预订航班的例子，我认为，如果你通过传统的信用卡网络和传统支付渠道，你依然能获得与传统电子商务相同的反欺诈和拒付保护。

Well, I mean, I think, again, if you take back to an example like booking a flight, I think again, if you go through traditional card networks and you go through the traditional rails, I think you get the same benefit, fraud and chargeback benefits that you get with traditional e commerce.

我认为，再次回到我的观点，将会出现一大批全新的商家，他们将按每笔交易获得报酬。

I think the, again, going back to kind of my thinking of there will be a whole new class of merchants that are gonna get paid on a per transaction basis.

如果我购买的服务价格只有几分之一美分或几美分，那么欺诈这个概念就显得不那么相关了，因为说实话，如果我使用了某个服务，结果发现是骗局或者根本用不了，最多也就是浪费一点时间，让人有点沮丧。

If I'm buying a service for fractions of a cent or a few cents, this notion of fraud, think is a lot less relevant because frankly, if I use a service and maybe it's a scam or it doesn't work, it's frustrating for a little bit of time.

但最终，我可以接受损失几美分，并且告诉自己：以后别再用这个服务了。

But ultimately I can be okay with wasting a few cents and can say, look, don't use the server service again.

我认为问题出现的地方在于，当我购买高价值或高价商品时。

I think where this gets problematic is when I'm going and purchasing high value or high ticket item purchases.

在那种情况下，我认为像信用卡网络这样的系统将继续保持优势。

And at that point, think that's where, for example, the card networks are going to continue to have an advantage.

但我认为，如果你相信这些交易大多不会是企业协议或大型SaaS协议的话。

But I think if you believe that a lot of these, it's not going to be these enterprise agreements and major SaaS agreements.

再说一遍，我有一个具体的项目在做，也许我只是想用一次这个工具。

And again, it's I have a specific project that I'm building and maybe I wanna use this tool once.

我不觉得欺诈是个大问题，因为归根结底，我花的钱并不多，不会对我造成实质性的影响。

I don't think fraud is as big of an issue because at the end of the day, it's not a big enough amount of money that I'm spending where it materially impacts me.

好的。

All right.

接下来，我们将进一步探讨将存在的不同类型的代理以及其发展方式。

So in a moment, we're gonna talk a little bit more about the different types of agents that will exist and how this will play out.

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回到我和 Noah 与 Robbie 的对话。

Back to my conversation with Noah and Robbie.

所以 Noah，我其实想问问你对 Robbie 对不同类型代理的分类有什么看法，以及你认为哪些代理会更频繁地进行交易。

So Noah, I actually wanted to ask you what you thought about Robbie's taxonomy of the different types of agents and how you think that part might play out in terms of ones that transact more than others.

是的，当然。

Yeah, for sure.

我的意思是，说实话，如今人们谈论很多关于各种代理做不同事情的事情。

I mean, look, I think at the end of the day, like today, it kind of feels like there's a lot of conversation about having all these different agents doing these different things.

但坦率地说，至少从我的角度来看，它们似乎都属于同一个生态系统。

But frankly, at least from my perspective, it feels like they're all sort of part of the exact same ecosystem.

比如，你可以在其中启动不同的子代理，各自专注于不同的任务。

Like, for example, you can spin up different sub agents within that can focus on different tasks.

但归根结底，它们似乎都汇聚到同一个产品或同一个代理上。

But at the end of the day, it kind of feels like it rolls up to the same product or to the same agent.

所以我认为我们会看到这种情况——我们已经初步看到这种趋势，伴随着这个新的技能生态系统，会出现某些类似角色构建的模式：某个代理拥有无限的智能，但当你给它设定非常具体的限制或约束时，它在特定任务上会更有效。

And so I think what we're going to see is that, and we're starting to see this develop already with sort of this new skills ecosystem that there are certain sort of almost like character builds that you can have where a certain agent has infinite amount of intelligence, but when you give it very specific guardrails or very specific kind of constraints, it will be more useful for that task.

不过我认为这对商业的影响其实并不大，因为正如罗比所说，如果最终付款的是人类或开发者，那么真正重要的只是你是否有一个统一的余额。

I think how that impacts commerce though is kind of immaterial because to kind of to Robbie's point, if the human or the developer is ultimately the one that's making the payment, it really only matters if you have one balance.

在我看来，很多评论在这个问题上有点跑偏了：他们认为我会拥有上万个不同的子代理，每个都需要自己的钱包，每个都需要独立的控制机制，诸如此类。

And so I think one of the areas where a lot of the commentary in my opinion has gotten a little bit sideways is there's this notion that like, I'm going to have 10,000 different sub agents and each one's going to need their own wallet and each one's going to have to have their own controls and all these things.

说实话，很多这类想法有点过于复杂了。

I think frankly, lot of that is a little bit over complicated.

我更倾向于认同罗比的观点：归根结底，如果某个任务已经明确了你能承受的支出上限，那么每个代理或参与方具体花了多少钱其实无关紧要。

And I probably tend to gear more towards Robbie's opinion there where at the end of the day, like if a given task has a certain mandate of how much you're willing to spend, which one, how much each agent or participant spends is kind of irrelevant.

因此，从这个角度看，我们很可能会看到不同子代理在功能分工上的进一步细化。

And so I think from that respect, we're likely to see more subdivision between different sub agents of what they do.

但从商业角度来看，这不会那么复杂。

But I think from a commerce perspective, it won't be as complicated.

好的。

All right.

那么回到欺诈问题，我想知道在代理商业领域发展和壮大之前，你认为还有哪些障碍需要解决。

So to go back to the fraud issue, I wondered what other roadblocks you see that need to be solved in order for the agentic commerce space to be built out and grow.

是的，很多人谈到过支付基础设施可能是最大的瓶颈，有人做思想实验说，如果我们能解决支付问题，实现即时支付和微支付，那么代理商业就会完全起飞。

Yeah, I think a lot of people have talked about the rails being kind of the ultimate bottleneck and the thought experiment is like, hey, if we can solve the rails and have instant payments and micro payments and, know, the agentic commerce will, know, it'll completely take off.

我认为我的观点是，瓶颈并不在支付基础设施，而在于人类的社会结构。

I think my perspective is it is not the rails that's the bottleneck, and it's actually human sort of social structures.

我认为人们并不愿意轻易把所有事情都交给代理去做。

And I think like I don't know that people are willingly going to just outsource everything to an agent.

这背后需要极大的信任，而这与消费者过去做决策的方式并不一致。

I think like that implicitly takes a lot of trust, and that's not consistent with how decisions have historically been made for consumers.

所以这是一个例子。

So that would be one example.

我认为更关键的例子是官僚主义的惰性，对吧？

I think more consequential examples are you know bureaucratic inertia, right?

比如，如果你认为这些代理大多会是商业代理，最终由组织自上而下部署，那么你必须经过多层审批才能真正将其在组织内销售出去。

Like I think you know if you're if you believe that a lot of these agents are gonna be these commercial agents that are ultimately gonna be deployed sort of top down within organizations, you know there are multiple layers you have to ultimately get through to actually be able to sell that you know within an organization.

我认为未来这将成为一种竞争必需品，如果不整合这些代理，反而会成为一种风险。

And I do think it'll be a competitive necessity down the road, and it'll be almost like a liability if you don't integrate these agents.

但我认为，这实际上比人们直觉中要花更长的时间。

But I think that actually takes a lot longer than people intuitively think.

另一点是政府支出是经济中非常重要的部分。

The other thing is government spending is you know a massive part of the economy.

我认为，认为政府在未来几年内会采用代理，这种想法简直疯狂。

And I think you'd be crazy to think that you know governments are going to be adopting agents within the next few years.

我觉得这同样需要非常长的时间。

Like I think that's also going to take a very long time.

历史上有很多先例也支持这一观点。

There's plenty of precedents throughout history that would also be consistent with that.

另一点是法律和监管方面的瓶颈，我认为这一点也没有得到足够多的讨论。

The other thing is legal and regulatory bottlenecks as well, and I think that's another thing you know there isn't enough people kind of discussing that.

这不仅仅是铁轨没有为机器设计好，还包括我们整个监管体系和法律结构。

Where you know it's not just you know the rails that weren't engineered for machines, it's also you know our entire regulatory system, our entire legal structure.

我认为这不会像协议升级那样，简单地修复铁轨就能解决。

And I don't think it's going to be something you know, in the same way that like you know a protocol upgrade is sufficient to fix kind of the rails.

法律结构无法通过协议升级来调整，这里存在更多的惯性问题。

There's no protocol upgrade that can be applied to legal structures, There's a lot more, again just inertia there.

所以我认为，大家都低估了采用这些技术所面临的诸多瓶颈。

So I think that's what everyone's sort of underestimating is there are so many bottlenecks to adoption.

我认为技术上已经能够实现，甚至可以说它已经存在了。

I think the technology will be there, and you could almost argue it's already there.

但这并不意味着一切都会在一夜之间被广泛采用。

But that doesn't necessarily mean everything's gonna be adopted overnight.

诺亚，你有什么要补充的吗？

Noah, do you have anything to add?

是的，我的意思是，我个人对人类在多大程度上会适应代理工具的普及持更乐观态度。

Yeah, mean, I personally am more bullish on how much comfortability humans will get with agents taking off.

我的意思是，如果你回看早期互联网时代，当时也有类似的担忧，比如我的数据会不会被窃取？

I mean, I think if you go back to the early internet days or there was similar fears, think of, is my data going to get taken?

这有多安全？有多可靠？

Like how secure, how safe is this?

但随着时间推移，我认为人们逐渐对这项技术更加放心，同时安全机制也不断改进。

And over time, I think people got more comfortable with it and the technology and the guardrails improved.

我认为人们会优先选择进入门槛最低、能最大程度提升生活效率的方式，即使这意味着承担一点风险。

And I think people are going to optimize for what is the lowest barrier to entry and how do they create the most efficiency in their lives, even if it means taking a little bit of a risk.

我的意思是，即使你看OpenClaw生态系统，也有很多OpenClaw的设置在我看来并不理想，甚至不够安全，但人们依然在用，因为他们喜欢尝试。

Mean, even if you look at like the OpenClaw ecosystem, like there's a lot of setups of OpenClaw that I think are less than ideal or not very safe, but people still do it because they like experimenting.

我认为，随着安全机制逐步完善，人们才会真正跨越鸿沟，实现主流普及。

And I think over time as the guardrails get there, that's how you start to cross the chasm and you get more mainstream adoption.

对我来说，如果要我说最大的障碍是什么，尤其是在我之前提到的这种新型无界面商户和代理经济中，我认为问题其实不在于基础设施本身。

I think for me, like if I was to say like, what is the biggest barrier, at least especially in this sort of new headless merchant in agentic economy that I kind of talked about, I think it's honestly less about the rails.

我同意罗比的观点。

I agree with Robbie there.

我认为这更多是关于可分离性层面的问题。

And I think it's more on the severability layer.

如果你有成千上万个潜在的新端点，它们看起来彼此都像是完美的互补，你该如何区分它们？

If you have thousands and thousands of new potential endpoints that you could be hitting and they all kind of look like perfect compliments to one another, how do you differentiate between them?

因此，这是一个开放性问题：这是由一家私营公司开发，还是一个开放的生态系统？

And so I think it's an open question of like, is this something that gets developed from a private company versus is this sort of an open ecosystem?

我认为我们在加密领域本身以及之外都经常看到类似的争论。

I think we see that debate happen a lot in crypto itself well with this topic and outside of it.

但我觉得，为了让这真正有用，必须有更多关于实际安全性与可靠性的明确信号。

But I think in order for this to be useful, there needs to be more signal in terms of like actually how safe is this, like how reliable is this?

我认为这将显著扩大网络规模。

And I think that will grow the network significantly.

是的，关于这一点，我其实想问问目前存在的各种标准，因为诺亚在他的文章中提到了这个由MPP驱动的市场。

Yeah, so on that score, I actually did wanna ask about some of the different standards that are out there because, so Noah mentioned this marketplace in his piece and that is powered by MPP.

商家支付协议由And Stripe开发，另一个大家常提到的大公司是Coinbase的X402，也是他们开发的。

The merchant payments protocol by And Stripe and another big name that people are talking about is Coinbase's X402 or they developed it.

一个开放标准。

An open standard.

我认为这两者之间的简要区别在于，MPP有一个叫做‘会话’的功能，有点像在酒吧开一个有预算的账单。

I think the short version of the difference between these two is MPP has something called sessions, which is sort of like opening a tab at a bar with the budget.

坦白说，对我来说，这听起来和闪电网络通道或状态通道非常相似。

Frankly, also to me, sounded just super similar to lightning channels or state channels.

但MPP的另一个细节是，目前它更中心化。

But the one other detail about MVP is basically at this moment, it's more centralized.

它只在Tempo上进行结算。

It's only settling on tempo.

它需要Stripe的支持，但能连接到Visa等传统支付渠道。

It requires Stripe, but it does connect to traditional payment rails like Visa.

他们表示，最终会实现链无关。

And they say that they will eventually be chain agnostic.

目前他们还集成了Lightspark，这是一家专注于比特币的闪电支付公司。

And at the moment they also have Lightspark on it, which is a lightning payments company with Bitcoin.

X402则更加无许可。

X402 is just more permissionless.

它目前支持任何ERC20代币。

It supports any ERC20 token at the moment.

它对用户来说是免Gas费的，但不具备会话机制。

It's gasless for users, but it doesn't have the sessions aspect.

因此，每次交易都需要单独发起。

So you're transacting with every request.

我只是想知道，你对不同的架构有什么看法？你认为哪些会更快被采用，为什么？

And I just wondered if you had thoughts on different type of architectures and which ones you think will be adopted more quickly why you thought that.

你也可以提到其他一些协议，因为还有很多，比如Visa的CLI工具、Google的代理支付协议、AP2等等。

And you can name any others because there's a whole bunch of others like, Visa's CLI tool, Google agent payments protocol, AP2, there's a bunch.

所以你可以谈谈其中任何一个。

So you can talk about anyone's.

是的，我觉得这是个好问题。

Yeah, I think it's a good question.

我的意思是，我对X402和MPP都相当乐观。

I mean, look, I think I'm pretty optimistic on both X402 and on MPP.

我认为MPP的优势显然是背后有Stripe生态系统支持。

I think obviously the benefit that MPP has is that they obviously have the Stripe ecosystem behind them.

所以，如果现有的Stripe商户想参与这种新的智能代理经济，他们可能只需点击一个按钮就能启用，而使用X402则可能需要设置一个中介方，并可能需要更多定制化的集成。

So I think there's definitely a head start there where if you have existing Stripe merchants who wanna participate in this new agentic economy, it'll potentially be a lot easier for them to just click a button and have that enabled versus maybe with X4O2, gotta go and set up a facilitator and potentially will require more bespoke integrations.

值得注意的是，在MPP发布之前，Stripe就已经集成了X402。

And it's worth noting that Stripe also integrated X4O2 prior to the announcement of MPP.

所以我认为这将如何发展还不清楚。

So I think it's unclear how this will develop.

我认为加密生态系统通常更倾向于开放的无许可标准。

I think obviously the crypto ecosystem tends to prefer more of the open permissionless standards.

但我认为，当你能更好地控制产品时，也有一些优势。

But I also think that there are some benefits you have when you can control the product more.

我认为你的例子，比如会话功能以及使用传统支付方式的能力，是朝着正确方向迈出的重要一步。

I think your example, things like sessions and also the ability to use traditional payment methods is a huge step in the right direction.

我认为Visa CLI是一个新推出的产物，Visa正在开发它，它不是一个协议，而是一种基于CLI的钱包。

I do think it's worth Visa CLI is a new product that Visa is developing where it's not a protocol, but rather it's sort of a new CLI based wallet.

因此，类似于我们看到的其他一些钱包，你可以将其下载到OpenClaw或Cloud Code中。

And so similar to, I think some of the other wallets that we're seeing, you can download it into OpenClaw or Cloud Code.

你可以前往多个不同的端点进行交易。

You can go and transact at a bunch of different endpoints.

它还附带了一个他们开发的完整端点目录，以及与现有端点的连接。

It comes with a whole directory of endpoints I think that they've developed as well as connection to existing ones.

与一些其他基于MPC的钱包不同，它默认内置了卡片功能。

And unlike I think some of the other MPC based wallets, it comes default with card.

因此，正如我在论文中提到的，我认为目前基础设施已经基本到位。

And so again, I think at this point, as I mentioned in my paper, I feel like the rails are largely there.

谁最终胜出可能没那么重要，因为最终决定因素将是商家希望集成什么样的系统。

And who wins is probably less relevant because it's ultimately going to come down to what merchants want to integrate with.

我认为更大的问题是，哪些新的商家会涌现出来？

I think the bigger question is who are the new merchants that are going to come out?

他们会提供哪些对开发者有吸引力、促使他们采用这项技术的服务？

What services are they going to create that is useful to developers to the point that they want to adopt this?

在我看来，这才是更大的问题，也是创新的最大机遇。

I think that to me is the bigger question and the bigger opportunity for innovation.

但你能详细说说吗？

But do you want to elaborate on that?

比如，你认为会出现哪些类型的商家？

Like what type of merchants you think will come out for?

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，有一个较少被讨论的领域，那就是创意方面有很多有趣的东西。

Well, I mean, think there's a one area that is less talked about is there's a lot of interesting stuff on the creative side.

比如能够通过代码创作音乐，能够进行图像生成。

So the ability to vibe code music, the ability to have image generation.

我认为我们在创意方面已经看到了很多有趣的东西。

I think that we've seen a lot of creative things there.

能够通过描述氛围和情绪来生成一首歌，这很有趣。

And the ability to generate a song with explaining the vibe and the mood is interesting.

但我认为这将扩展到更广泛的开发者服务领域。

But I think it's going to expand much more into more general developer services.

如果你用过任何这些编码平台，你会发现使用过程中会频繁出现很多商业场景。

I think if you've used any of these coding platforms, you notice that there's a lot of commerce moments that happen when you're using it.

无论是需要注册域名、设置服务器，还是获取专有数据的访问权限。

Whether you need to get a domain name, whether you need to set up a server, whether you need to get access to proprietary data.

我认为所有这些商业场景都会带来摩擦：你必须离开终端，去获取API密钥，可能还要订阅服务，然后再回到Cloud Code或Open Cloud中粘贴进去。

I think all these commerce moments where you have to leave the terminal, go and get an API key, maybe get a subscription, then come back into Cloud Code or Open Cloud and paste it in.

这是一个很大的痛点。

It's a big friction point.

因此，我认为买家端的开发越深入，就越能激发并影响卖家端的创新。

And so I think the more that people develop on the buyer side that will lead to more inspiration and influence on the seller side.

罗比，你呢？

And Robbie, what about you?

你认为在这个世界中，哪些类型的平台会表现得更好？

What thoughts do you have about which types of platforms will do well in this world?

是的。

Yeah.

我认为至少目前的一个讽刺之处在于，许多平台都向卡片兼容。

I think part of the irony at this point at least is a lot of them are backwards compatible with cards.

我认为，诺亚已经提出了这一点。

And I think, you know, Noah's made this point.

我认为我们实际上在这个问题上是一致的，那就是，人们已经习惯了用卡片支付，这种惯性依然存在。

I think this is probably an area we actually do do agree on is, you know, there is this inertia again, where, you know, people are used to making kind of payments with cards.

而且，这些卡片网络确实拥有所有这些令牌化凭证，这一点非常重要。

And again, think one of the really important things is these card networks do have you know, all these tokenized credentials.

对吧？

Right?

因此，它们已经解决了区块链尚未解决的欺诈和风险控制问题。

So they have solved for this kind of fraud and risk wearing issue that blockchains just haven't solved for.

我认为这需要非常长的时间。

And I think it'll take a really long time.

我最近一直在思考的一个细微差别是，这些由支付网络经过多年打磨形成的令牌化凭证和欺诈图谱，是否真的能很好地适用于代理商业行为呢？

I think one nuance that that I've been thinking about more is, you know, do these do these tokenized credentials and these kind of you know fraud graphs that the card networks have made, and you know have refined over years and years, do they actually map well to agentic commerce, right?

如果一个代理在进行交易，这显然与人类的行为根本不同。

So if an agent is making a transaction, know obviously that's fundamentally different to to a human.

行为模式也会看起来非常不同。

The behavioral sort of patterns will also look you know quite different.

因此，我也很好奇，如果我们最终看到为代理专门演化出全新的欺诈图谱和风险评分体系，会不会成为必然？

So I'm also you know curious that you know if we end up seeing you know almost like new fraud graphs and new new risk scoring you know have to evolve for agents.

实际上，我认为诺亚在他的某篇文章中暗示过这一点，也许这正是区块链的机会所在。

And I actually think Noah sort of alluded to this in one of his pieces where you maybe that is the opportunity for blockchains.

对吧？

Right?

这创造了一种空白，因为没人解决过这个问题，也许区块链实际上可以解决它。

It kind of creates this gap where because no one has solved for it, then maybe that's something blockchains could actually solve for.

而这正是它们在代理交易领域与信用卡网络竞争所需的关键切入点。

And that's kind of the wedge that they need to ultimately compete with card networks on the agentic side.

天啊，这太有趣了。

Oh my gosh, that is so interesting.

这对我来说很有道理，因为你知道，加密货币里有那么多犯罪行为。

That makes a lot of sense to me because, mean, yeah, I just As you know, there's so much crime in crypto.

所以我觉得通过加密货币，我学到了很多关于罪犯行为的知识。

So I feel like through crypto, I've learned a lot about kind of the behavior of criminals.

我记得凯蒂·汉恩当检察官时，发现有两名联邦特工在盗窃从丝绸之路缴获的比特币。

And I remember when Katie Hahn was a prosecutor and she figured out that there were two separate federal agents that were stealing the Bitcoin that were, what's the word, seized from Silk Road.

她发现这一点的方式是，有人向她举报，认为是特工干的。

The way she figured it out was that somebody tipped her off, they thought an agent was doing this.

然后她想，不，他们不会这么做的。

And then she thought, no, they wouldn't be.

她想证明这个人是错的。

And she wanted to prove this person wrong.

但当她观察这些行为时，她发现这不仅仅是某一个人在作案，而是有两个人，因为他们的行为模式截然不同。

But then when she looked at the behaviors, she was like, oh, it's not just that somebody's doing it, but there's two people because their behaviors are so different.

很明显，这是两个不同的人。

It was so obvious that they were two different people.

所以，对于一名执法人员来说，不太可能有这种……我的意思是，也许会有，但要找出那些能标志个人的独特行为模式会困难得多。

So yeah, like with an agent, wouldn't have that kind of, I mean, might, but it would just be harder to figure out like, what are the idiosyncratic kind of behaviors that mark a person?

我还想谈谈我一个想法，我认为某种稍微更受控的协议，比如MPP协议，可能会率先成功，尤其是因为他们已经拥有大量商户，但随着时间推移，像x402这样更去中心化的方案可能会表现得更好。

I did also wanna ask about a thought that I had, which was, I think something that is a little bit more permissioned, like the MPP protocol will maybe succeed first, especially because they already do have so many merchants, but that like maybe over time x four zero two or just anything that's more permissionless might do better.

我知道MPP正在朝这个方向发展，所以到那时他们未必会落后。

And I know that MPP is heading in that direction, so it may not be that they fall behind at that point.

但总感觉这就像早期互联网的缩影——当时AOL是每个人上网的入口。

But it just sort of feels like there could be an analog to the early Internet where, you know, AOL was how everybody got online first.

但后来，当然，没人再用AOL了。

And then, course, you know, like, nobody uses AOL anymore.