为什么加密货币回购是“错误的资本配置方式”

我在Robinhood上证明了这一点。

I made the point with Robinhood.

就像Robinhood每天赚几百万美元，而以太坊的基础层基本上只积累了一百到两百美元。

It's like Robinhood was making several millions of dollars a day, and basically, Ethereum base layer was accruing a $100, like, literally a 100 to $200.

大家好。

Hi, everyone.

欢迎来到Unchained，一个不带炒作、专注加密货币的节目。

Welcome to Unchained, your no hype resource for all things crypto.

我是主持人Laura Shin。

I'm your host, Laura Shin.

感谢大家收看这次直播。

Thanks for joining this livestream.

本期节目由Nexo赞助，Nexo是领先的数字资产财富平台。

This episode is brought to you by Nexo, the premier digital assets wealth platform.

通过这个平台，你可以赚取加密货币的每日利息，或者借款，所有操作都在一个平台上完成，已有超过1000万客户信赖。

Earn daily interest on your crypto or borrow funds, all through one platform trusted by more than 10,000,000 clients.

更多信息请访问 nexo.com。

Find out more at nexo.com.

适用地区限制、资格要求和条款。

Geo restrictions, eligibility, and terms apply.

在开始之前，我想请你帮个忙。

Before we get started, I want to ask you for something.

我们现在正在为 Unchained 做一系列决定。

We're making a bunch of decisions right now about Unchained.

接下来做什么、什么时候上线、哪些方面应该做得更多，这些我都想先听听你的意见，而不是等我们决定之后再听。

What we make next, when we go live, what we should be doing more of, and I'd rather hear from you before we make them than after.

所以我们准备了一份调查问卷。

So we put together a survey.

只需要几分钟，而且是匿名的，还有一个框可以让你告诉我我们可以改进的地方。

It takes just a few minutes, it's anonymous, and there's a box where you can tell me what we could be doing better.

我会阅读所有的回复。

I read all the responses.

链接在节目说明里，或者你也可以扫屏幕上的二维码。

The link is in the show notes, or you can snap the QR code on screen.

或者直接访问 unchainedcrypto.com/survey。

Or go to unchainedcrypto.com/survey.

谢谢。

Thanks.

今天的嘉宾是 Lorenzo Valente，ARK Invest 数字资产研究总监。

Today's guest is Lorenzo Valente, director of research digital assets at ARK Invest.

欢迎你，Lorenzo。

Welcome, Lorenzo.

你好，Laura。

Hi, Laura.

谢谢你的邀请。

Thanks for having me.

很高兴来到这里。

Excited to be here.

很高兴能和你聊聊。

Excited to chat with you.

现在这个行业确实很有意思。

It's a very interesting time in the industry.

我们希望能走出这轮熊市，而你正好处在投资和前沿科技的交汇点上。

We're, you know, hopefully, I think coming out of this bear market and you sit at this intersection of investing and frontier tech.

当然，作为ARK的一员，你们可能是最知名的处在交汇点的投资公司之一。

Of course, being at ARK, it's probably one of the best known investment firms sitting at the intersection.

大家都在说我们现在处于加密货币被广泛采用的时期，之前那些投机阶段至少会变得温和一些，甚至可能会逐渐消失。

And everyone's talking about how we're in this era of crypto adoption and how the previous speculative periods of crypto will at least be tamer, if not kind of go by the wayside.

你是怎么看的？

How are you thinking about it?

你觉得我们现在处于什么阶段？这次有哪些值得投资的？

What era do you think we're in, and what's investable this time around?

这是个好问题。

It's a good question.

先说明一下，我们其实更像是一个交易型资产管理公司，我们有ETF。

So just to preface, we were obviously more of a trade facet manager, and we have the ETFs.

所以我觉得我们更像是后期投资者。

And so we were more like late stage investors, I would describe probably.

所以我觉得现在看这个领域，2026年不管Clarity那边怎么样，都会是关键的一年。但我觉得这确实标志着一个时代的结束，另一个时代的开始。

And so I think as we look at the space right now, it's going through, I think twenty twenty six is going to be a pivotal year regardless of what happened with Clarity, But I think it's definitely marking the end of an era and the beginning of a new one.

我觉得有几个大趋势。

And I think there's a few big trends.

我觉得我们看到的是行业的大规模整合，非常大规模。

I think we're seeing just massive consolidation in the industry, massive.

有创纪录数量的项目、协议和应用在关闭和退出，我觉得总体上这是好事。

You have like a record number of projects, protocols, applications that are just closing and sunsetting, which I think is good overall.

我觉得从投资的角度看，这个时代的前半段更像是我们在探索和发现的阶段。

I think from the investment side, the first kind of part of the era was more, you know, we were in the pioneering and discovery phase.

我觉得赢家是那些真正设定新标准，或者发现、调整一些基础组件，比如AMM、货币市场，这些构建了成功协议的东西。

And I think the winners were really the ones setting kind of new standard or discovering or tweaking some of the primitives that, you know, the AMMs, the money markets, lot of what build basically the successful protocols.

我觉得现在这种情况正在改变。

I think that is changing right now.

我觉得我们基本上已经发现了链上能做的大部分基础组件和事情。

I think we've kind of discovered most of the primitives and things that we can do on chain.

基本上，这个时代的第二阶段，至少对我们来说，重点不再是承销全新的应用或协议，而是更关注那些已经在运作的项目，它们能发展到多大。

And basically the second part of this era, at least for us, it's not so much about underwriting net new applications or protocols, but more so seeing, hey, the ones that are working, how big can they get?

它们有哪些模式，能扩展到多大。

What are the modes that they have and how big can they get in?

所以这其实不是从零到一的过程，而是从一到一百，对吧？

So it's not really like the zero to one part, but more like the one to 100, right?

比如，哪些协议、哪些公司能够指数级增长，并且能够持续增长，最终与Treadfy合并。

Like, which are the protocols, which are the companies that can grow kind of exponentially and that can continue to grow and merge basically with Treadfy.

我们会讨论代币化，这是一个比加密货币大得多的市场。

We'll talk about tokenization, which is a market much, much bigger than crypto.

我还觉得，这基本上是一个以散户为主的市场。

I also think it was mostly a retail focused market.

很多第一层网络和应用方面的成功案例，基本上任何公司都主要是面向零售用户的产品。

A lot of the wins in terms of layer ones, applications, like pretty much any company was mostly like a retail facing product.

使用这些协议、应用和产品的人，更多是那些早期相信这个行业的狂热爱好者。

And the people using the protocols and applications and products were more the degens, like early believers in the industry.

显然，市场的那个阶段现在完全要结束了，对吧？

And clearly, like that phase of the market is completely, it's just ending, right?

我觉得现在更多的是机构化的，看我们怎么让传统金融机构和那些真正掌握大资金的人加入进来，以及那些真正有规模的实际应用场景，对吧？

And I think now it's much more institutional and seeing like how we can onboard, you know, tradify institutions and people that are really like the persons that move real money and use cases that actually matter at size, right?

比如支付、跨境支付、交易，基本上都是金融相关的领域，我认为经过差不多十年，以太坊是2015年推出的。

Which is like payments, cross border payments, trading, all basically adjacent topics around finance, which is I think after basically ten years, I think Ethereum launched in 2015.

现在这算是加密货币的核心应用场景和最佳的产品市场契合点。

It's kind of the core use case and best PMF for crypto right now.

是的，我之前想问你，当你谈到如何评估那些能从1做到100的公司和协议时。

Yeah, and I did want to ask you earlier when you talked about how you're making assessments of companies and protocols that can go from one to 100.

你会看哪些因素？

What factors are you looking at?

你觉得在这个新阶段，成败的关键特征是什么？

What do you think are the make or break characteristics for this next phase?

我觉得一个核心问题是价值在哪里积累，这算是加密货币领域的大问题，对吧？

I think one of the main questions is where does value accrue, which is kind of the big question in crypto, right?

而且我觉得现在我们正在与传统金融融合，加上代币化和现实世界资产，这个问题现在变得更加重要了。

And I think now that we're merging with and tokenization in general and RWAs, it's a question that is just even more important right now.

因为有些公司拥有庞大的资产负债表和非常好的技术，正在整合加密货币。

Because you have some of these companies with big balance sheets, with very good technology that are integrating crypto.

而现在，整合的成本，以及用AI开发的成本，基本上要降到零了。

And now basically the cost of integrating, the cost of developing with AI, it's essentially going to zero.

所以我觉得过去五到十年里我们行业里拥有的很多护城河，现在没那么有优势了。

So I think a lot of the moats that we had in the industry in the last kind of five to ten years, they're just not as powerful.

我觉得还有一点是，五年前我们看的时候，并没有很多大型的加密货币公司，对吧？

I think one of the other things is, I when we looked like five years ago, there was, you just didn't have a lot of crypto companies that were big, right?

比如，没有很多公司年收入能达到一亿或两亿美元，举个例子。

Like they weren't like, you didn't have a lot of companies that were doing upwards of a 100 or $200,000,000 of AR for example.

所以那时候竞争起来容易多了，对吧？

And so it was just much easier to compete, right?

因为一切都是新的，你可以在六个月到一年内就搞出一个东西来。

Because everything was kind of new and you can bootstrap something like in six months to a year.

但现在在我看来，情况完全变了，现在有大公司了，而且是上市公司。

And now things have completely changed in my opinion, where now you have huge companies, They're publicly traded companies.

他们有管理团队。

They have management teams.

他们有做了十年技术的人。

They have people that have been building technology for ten years.

他们有庞大的资产负债表。

They have huge balance sheets.

所以很明显，现在如果你是一个稳定币初创公司，你跑来说，嘿，我们在做稳定币产品。

And so obviously, right now, if you're a stablecoin startup and you come and you say, hey, we're doing this product in stablecoin.

现在有Tether和Circle，它们都是巨无霸，超级大的公司。

Now you have Tether and Circle that are just like humongous, like huge companies.

它们在不断增长，表现非常好。

They're compounding, they're doing extremely well.

所以我觉得情况变化很大，对吧？

And so I think it's just like changed a lot, right?

我觉得对于我们在评估和考察的那些实际公司，看它们能走多远。

I think for the actual companies that we're underwriting and we're looking at and see how far can they get.

这基本上就是看加密货币如何与现实世界资产和链下资产融合。

It's essentially seeing how crypto can merge with RWAs and with off chain assets.

在ARK，我们研究比特币、以太坊、一层网络以及所有这些加密资产已经一年了。

At ARK, we've been studying like Bitcoin, Ethereum, layer ones and all these crypto assets for a year.

我们很清楚它们在接下来五到十年会有多大。

We have a pretty good idea how big they're going to get like in the next five to ten years.

所以那种评估过程已经完成了。

And so that kind of underwriting process is done.

我觉得现在市场更大的部分，也是我们看到很多增长的地方，就是股票、股权，当然还有固定收益、现实世界资产，以及所有新的资产类别，比如预测市场、计算资源，我们在这些新资产类别上花了很多时间。

I think the bigger part of the market right now and where we see like a lot of growth is just like stocks, equity, obviously equities, fixed income, RWAs in general and all like new kind of asset classes like prediction markets, compute where we're spending a lot of time, these new asset classes.

你能用加密货币技术和我们的加密原语，为这些资产类别释放更多价值吗？这些资产类别规模要大一个数量级。

Can you use crypto technology and on our crypto primitives to unlock like even more value for those asset classes, which is kind of order of magnitude bigger.

所以这些就是我们目前正在思考的问题。

So those are kind of the questions that we're asking ourselves right now.

而且我觉得，现在很多非常成功的公司，如果不能完成这个转型，它们最终会被其他公司超越。

And even I think a lot of companies that have been super successful right now, if they're not able to make this transition, I think we'll get them all run by other companies.

那你说的加密原语是什么意思？

And so when you said cryptographic primitives, what do you mean?

因为我相信你也知道，现在关于密码学也有很多疑问。

Because as I'm sure you're aware, there's a lot of questions about cryptography right now as well.

在我们深入讨论之前，因为那是个复杂的话题，你刚才说的到底是什么意思？

So before we move into all that, because that's its whole, you know, ball of wax, what what did you mean by that?

我们在加密货币领域发明了很多东西，比如永续合约、自动做市商、Uniswap，这些基本上构成了所谓的DeFi。

A lot of the things that we've kind of invented in crypto, like perpetual futures, AMMs, Uniswap, like those sorts of building blocks of what's been defined essentially like calling it DeFi.

你能把现有的DeFi和现实世界资产结合起来吗？

Can you merge current DeFi with RWAs essentially?

而且你知道，你的产品或公司有没有一条现实可行的路，真的去支持那些资产类别？

And you know, can you does your product or your company has like a realistic path to actually supporting some of those, like those asset classes?

这就是现在的大问题。

That's kind of the big question right now.

还是说它会一直停留在小众领域？

Or is it going to remain like a niche?

而且你看，我觉得还是会有一些很大的玩家，支持以太坊、比特币，还有一些比较小的资产。

And look, there's still players I think that are gonna be very big that support Ethereum, Bitcoin and some of these assets that are some kind of smaller.

但那些……

But those...

这是我们问自己的问题之一。

That's one of the questions that, you know, that we ask ourselves.

好的。

Alright.

那么，我们现在来谈谈我刚才提到的那个话题，就是我们正处于一个非常特殊的时期，人们担心量子计算可能会破解密码学，甚至可能包括公钥密码学。

So let's now talk about what I alluded to a moment ago, which is we're in this very remarkable period where people are expressing fears that quantum computing could break cryptography, potentially even public key cryptography.

不知道你有没有看到那条推文，挺让人不安的。

I don't know if you saw that tweet from that green that was kind of disturbing.

马特·格林，一位著名的密码学家。

And Matt Greens, a famous cryptographer.

这一切上周就开始了，当时贾斯汀·德雷克发推文说，在我看来，现在应该做好准备，ECDSA 可能在 Q 日之前就被破解。

This all got kicked off last week when Justin Drake tweeted, quote, in my opinion, it is now reasonable to brace for the possibility that ECDSA breaks before q day.

最坏的情况下，是几个月内，而不是几年。

In the worst case, in months, not years.

然后他写道，破解私钥恢复，比如在一周内用现有硬件，比如大型 GPU 集群。

And then he wrote, by break, I mean, private key recovery, e g in one week on available hardware, e g a large GPU cluster.

哇。

Wow.

在这个时代，很多基础假设似乎都不再成立，你怎么看待投资？

How do you think about investing in this era when it seems like so many kind of foundational assumptions may no longer hold?

这确实是我们经常讨论的话题。

It's definitely something that we're talking a lot about.

而且我觉得加密货币有点像泡沫。

And I think, you know, crypto is kind of a bubble.

而且我觉得有时候加密货币圈的人以为机构往这个领域投钱，

And I think sometimes crypto people think like, you know, institutions allocating money to the space.

他们看的是Solana和以太坊的通货膨胀率是多少？

They're looking at, you know, what is the inflation rate of Solana versus Ethereum?

或者收入是多少？

Or like, what is the revenue?

但实际上他们根本不懂这些。

It's like, they don't they don't know any of that.

但如果你问一些机构他们最关心什么，我们收到很多问题，大概70%来自注册投资顾问、财富管理平台以及专业理财人士的问题，都是这样的。

But like, if you ask some of these institutions, what they care a lot and we get a lot of questions and probably 70% of the question that we get from RIAs like wealth management platform and like people that manage money for as professionals, it's questions like that.

嘿，量子计算会带来什么影响？

Hey, like what happens with quantum?

比如签名，是不是得转型？

Like are the signatures, are they gonna have to transition?

比如哪个区块链的路线图更好？

Like which blockchain is like, has a better road map?

这些才是他们真正关心的问题。

Those are really the questions that they care about.

我得说，他们这么专业，真让人印象深刻，值得称赞。

I have to say that I find that impressive that they're that sophisticated, so kudos to them.

我觉得可能是因为量子计算是一种更通用的技术，他们在其他领域也听说过。

I think maybe because quantum is more of a general technology that they've heard also, like, in other fields.

所以我觉得这才是真正能上头条的事情，但他们确实知道这个。

And so I think that's really the thing that kind of makes the headline, but they definitely know about it.

所以我们经常听到的，特别是关于量子计算、AI，还有Justin Drake的那条推文。

And so I think that that's one thing that we hear a lot for specifically kind of quantum and AI and the Justin Drake tweet.

说实话，这挺吓人的。

It's scary, honestly.

我觉得量子计算在内部，虽然我不是专门做这个工作的，但确实我们更多看到的是十年到二十年的预测，关于它什么时候会来。

I mean, I think quantum like internally and I'm not the one specifically that has done the work on that, but it's certainly something that we see more like in the ten to twenty years kind of forecast in terms of where it's coming.

现在想想你从一些公司看到的，比如像OpenAI和Anthropic这样的模型，以及他们在这么短的时间内取得的发现，真的很难不让人害怕，因为其中一个发现就是纳维-斯托克斯猜想，那是一个千禧年大奖难题。

Now, think what you've seen from some of the companies, like from some of the models like OpenAI and Anthropic and the discoveries they've made in such a short amount of time is just very hard to, you know, it's scary because like one of the discoveries was the Navier Stokes conjecture, which was a Millennium Prize problem.

所以那是数学界七个问题之一，人们发现这样的问题就能获得菲尔兹奖。

So it was one of the seven problems that, you know, people in the math community, like they win Fields Medal for discovering things like that.

所以这真的是一个存在了几个世纪的问题，非常非常难。

So it was really like a problem that has been around for centuries and very, very difficult.

所以我觉得，就目前AI和改进的速度来看，真的很难预测未来，因为我想我们一年前内部讨论的时候，我们会说，嘿，这项技术可能会提前两年实现……

And so I think just with AI and the pace of improvement right now, it's just very hard to project yourself because I think when we talked internally like a year ago, we say, hey, like this technology is probably gonna pull forward like two year...

现在基本上两年后能看到的东西，现在就能实现了。

What we see in two years, it's gonna pull forward now basically.

所以，你觉得两年后会发生的事情，现在就能发生什么？

So what do you see in two years that can happen now?

然后在过去六个月里，我们又说，嘿，这项技术可能会提前十年实现。

And then like in the past six months, it's, hey, like this technology can probably pull forward like ten years.

你觉得呢？

Like what do you see?

而在最近两个月里，开放式的讨论就变成了，未来三十到五十年会发生什么？

And like in the last two months, open end talk was just like, what can happen in the next like thirty to fifty years?

因为基本上现在就要实现了。

Because it's gonna get pulled like now basically.

这种时间线真的很难想象，作为一个普通人，无论是从投资角度还是内部理论来看。

It's just like hot timelines that are very hard to imagine as a as a human being in terms of investments and thesis internally.

所以这确实很吓人。

So it's it's definitely scary.

你看，我不是密码学家，关于ECDSA已经有很多讨论，它是比特币和以太坊使用的核心椭圆曲线密码学。

Look, I'm I'm not a cryptographer and obviously a lot has been said about ECDSA, which is kind of the core elliptic curve cryptography that that Bitcoin and and Ethereum serves.

但我认为它……

But I think it it...

在内部，我们认为自我托管在加密货币和核心加密理念方面越来越难推销。

Internally, we think, you know, self custody is just like a harder and harder sell in terms of of crypto and kind of the core crypto ethos.

我们内部一直有这个理论，自我托管正在慢慢消亡，我认为这正在加速，我们可以讨论原因，我认为这是DeFi实际上没有增长的核心原因之一，因为没有人愿意自我托管，所以我们正在等待Robinhood、Coinbase和其他应用真正开始吸引用户。

We've been having this thesis internally that, you know, self custody is slowly dying and I think this is just accelerating and we can talk about why and I think it's one of the core reasons DeFi is actually not growing is because like we don't have anyone that's willing to self custody and so we're waiting for the Robinhood's, the Coinbase and other applications to actually kind of onboard users.

所以这是第一点。

So that's number one.

我觉得第二点，另一个让人害怕的事情是解决方案本身，也就是其他类型的签名，这些签名不太为人所知，也没有经过充分测试，而且人们对它们的看法分歧很大。

I think number two, the other thing that is scary is the solution to that, which is other sets of signatures that like they're not well known, they're not well tested, and people have very divergent opinions about it.

所以这也是最吓人的部分，我觉得我们建立的很多第一层协议，比如比特币、以太坊和其他一些，说实话，现在它们已经有了很多治理机制。

So that is also the scariest part where I think a lot of the layer ones that we built, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and others, honestly, now they have shot like an amount of governance.

比如我们会问矿工，链上投票，还有DAO，社区，用户，质押者。

Like we ask the miners, there's on chain votes like this, the Dow, this is the community, there's the users, the stakers.

显然，这个话题似乎需要一种创始人模式。

And clearly, this this seems like a topic where you want like founder mode mode.

你需要有人站出来说，嘿，我们要进行这个转型。

You want someone say, hey, we're going to make this transition.

我们要这么做。

We're going to do this.

我们要用这些签名，基本上要在明年年中之前完成。

We're going to use these signatures and we're going to do this before next like mid next year, basically.

而且我觉得，至少我担心的是，很多这些东西会在治理和投票之类的过程中被淹没掉。

And it seems like at least like my concern is like a lot of these will get will get, you know, kind of lost in governance and like, you know, votes and stuff like that.

所以这也是让人害怕的地方。

And so that's also the part that that is a scary.

我觉得除此之外，看起来还是有解决方案的。

I think other than that looks like there are solutions.

再说一遍，就像我说的，还有其他签名方案，比如在你的路线图末尾，他们已经考虑这个问题好几年了。

Again, like I've said, there are other signatures like if the end of your roadmap, they've been thinking about this for years.

有很多初创公司在这方面帮忙。

There are a lot of startups kind of helping on that.

但我认为，AI 绝对是一股力量，它迫使你基本上要考虑未来，不是我们投资时看到的那个未来，那大概是五年、十年，对风险基金来说，而是更像二十年或三十年。

But I think AI is definitely a force now that is forcing you to basically think about the future, not the future where we see an investing, which is probably five years, ten years for venture fund, but more like twenty or thirty years.

这是我们以前从未做过的事情。

And it's something that we've kind of never done.

所以，是的，这很吓人。

So, yeah, it's scary.

聊天区里有个问题。

We have a question from the chat.

这个问题挺有意思的。

That's an interesting question.

问题是，为什么人们认为量子计算不会帮助加密货币？

It says, why do people assume that quantum won't help crypto?

为什么人们不认为会有一种量子币？

Why don't people assume that there will be a quantum coin?

量子安全在理论上是很棒的。

Quantum security is theoretically amazing.

对此我有自己的答案，但我也想听听你的看法。

So I have my own answer to that, but I'd be curious to hear yours.

我觉得它确实能有所帮助，就像现在这样。

I mean, think it could help just like as they are.

很多人都在说，担心AI模型破解ECDSA，但AI也会帮我们找到解决方案。

Like a lot of people are saying, hey, like this kind of fear about AI models breaking ECDSA, like they're also going to help us create kind of solutions.

确实如此。

It's true.

我觉得我不太确定的地方是，加密货币领域一直存在各种乱象，比如黑客攻击、钓鱼诈骗，还有钱包被盗刷之类的情况，每年都有发生。

I think the part where I'm not totally sure is just we have noise in crypto in terms of hacks, phishing, like wallets being drained, like, yearly.

这些损失加起来已经有数十亿美元了。

That is, like, already in the billions of dollars.

如果把所有的黑客攻击和钓鱼骗局都算上，我们可以聊聊Ledger发生的事情，那次的损失就超过了1000亿美元。

Like, if you add, like, all the hacks and all the phishing scams and we can talk about what happened with Ledger, was, more than a $100,100,000,000 dollars.

把这些都加在一起的话，加密货币里的噪音其实挺大的。

If you add all of this, like, you have a noise in crypto that is sizable.

比如朝鲜基本上就是靠这个吃饭，他们每年从加密货币里偷走几十亿美元。

Like, I mean, North Korea kinda has a job out of it basically where they steal, like, billions of dollars, like, yearly out of crypto.

所以我就觉得，也许……

And so I just think, like, you know, maybe like the...

我们确实没法确切知道，当人们……

We we won't know exactly for sure when people...

当有人破解了ECDSA，或者到了Q日那天。

When someone has kind of broken ECDSA or it's the Q day.

也许他们会开始在加密货币的噪音中慢慢偷。

Like, maybe they'll just start kind of slowly stealing like within the noise of crypto.

除非出现一个巨大的峰值，让你觉得肯定有问题，或者某个地址偷走的金额明显是异常值，否则我担心这会被淹没在噪音里，而这种噪音几乎一直存在，甚至在某些年份还在增长。

And unless you have a huge spike where you say, hey, like, there's definitely something going or an address has stolen an amount that is really like an outlier, I'm just afraid that it's going to get lost in the noise, which is pretty constant or even growing for some of the years.

我同意。

I agree.

我觉得这会有帮助。

I think it could help.

我觉得这在很大程度上取决于闭源模型在新版本中的表现，但市面上也有开源模型。

I think it depends a lot what the closed models do with the new releases, but you also have open models out there.

就像你们在节目里聊过的，那些模型任何人都可以用。

Like, you guys have talked, like, in some of the shows, and those can be used by anyone.

所以这就更难控制了。

And so that's just harder to kinda control.

对，正是如此。

Yeah, it's exactly that.

比如有人可能在暗中悄悄收集大量数据，然后伺机发动攻击。

Like somebody could in secret harvest a lot of stuff and then wait to attack.

所以最让人担心的情况往往最先发生。

And so it's like the fear, the fearful thing will happen first.

而且到了后期，加密货币或许也能利用量子技术来获益。

And yeah, later, maybe crypto can take advantage of quantum.

但在那之前，可能会有一堆项目成为待宰的羔羊。

But in the meantime, you know, there's potentially a bunch of projects that are going to be sitting ducks.

好的。

All right.

稍后我们会进一步聊聊，哪些公司和协议能更好地抵御量子计算带来的威胁。

So in a moment, we're going to talk a little bit more about which companies and protocols are well poised to withstand the threat from quantum.

不过在此之前，我们先听一下赞助商的简短发言，感谢他们让这档节目得以呈现。

But first, we'll take a quick word from the sponsors who make the show possible.

如果你的加密货币不只是放在钱包里，还能做更多事情，那会怎么样？

What if your crypto could do more than just sit in your wallet?

Nexo是一个数字资产财富平台，你可以在这里用加密货币赚取每日利息，或者用资产抵押借款。

Nexo is a digital assets wealth platform where you can generate daily interest on your crypto or borrow funds against your assets.

如今，Nexo已经服务超过一千万客户。

Today, Nexo serves more than 10,000,000 clients.

更多信息，请访问nexo.com。

Find out more at nexo.com.

还有一件事，我们有一个听众调查正在进行。

One more thing, we've got a listener survey open.

只需要几分钟时间。

It takes just a few minutes.

调查是匿名的，而且会影响我们接下来制作的内容。

It's anonymous, and it changes what we make next.

扫描屏幕上的二维码，或者访问unchainedcrypto.com/survey。

Use the QR code on screen or go to unchainedcrypto.com/survey.

链接在节目说明里。

The link is in the show notes.

回到我和洛伦佐的对话。

Back to my conversation with Lorenzo.

关于不同协议、生态系统和公司面临来自量子的不同威胁程度，有很多讨论。

So there's been a lot of conversation about how different protocols and ecosystems and companies are facing different kind of levels of threat from quantum.

你可能特别了解比特币的情况，但我想知道，你是如何看待不同类型公司和协议面临的威胁，以及你更看好哪些？

You probably are aware of this with Bitcoin in particular, but I was curious if you could just talk a little bit about how it is that you're thinking about the threat to different types of companies and protocols and which ones you're more bullish on?

我们是在专门讨论量子吗？

So are we talking specifically about quantum?

还有AI对公钥签名和密码学的威胁。

Also, AI threats to public key signatures and cryptography

总的来说？

in general?

请继续。

Go ahead.

两个都聊聊。

Talk about both.

我觉得我们内部其实也讨论过这个问题。

So I think, you know, internally, like, we've kinda discussed this.

对我们来说，有一些……

I think for us, some of the...

如果你看看整个行业的情况，我之前也研究过，大部分集中在亚洲的交易所、经纪商和平台上。

So if if you see the axe in the industry, which is something I was actually looking at the other day, you know, most of those are in kind of Asian exchanges and brokers and platforms.

所以我觉得，从用户角度来看，内部来说，一些中心化交易所其实是最有准备去应对这个问题的，对吧？因为你们需要持续投入研究。

And so I think right now from a user perspective, internally, I think some of the centralized exchanges are actually best equipped to deal with this, right, because you need to be able to keep up in terms of research.

你们还得具备最顶尖的安全架构。

You need to be able to have like the best security setups.

就像我们之前讨论过的，我不认为加密领域新进来的那些边缘用户——我对此很有把握——会愿意用硬件钱包，或者通过浏览器插件那种方式自己保管私钥。

I think as we discussed previously, I don't think the net new marginal user in crypto, and I'm pretty sure of that, will want to use either like a hardware wallet or want to self custody through like a browser kind of a wallet.

而且我认为这会带来很多后果。

And I think that has many consequences.

我觉得像Coinbase、Robinhood这些把加密货币复杂性完全隐藏起来的平台，才是真正能吸引新增用户的主力，它们在这方面的准备也是最充分的，跟ETF的情况一样。

I think the coin misses, the Robinhoods, the people that really abstract the crypto complexity, they're going to onboard the net marginal user and they're going to be best equipped just like same for the ETFs.

我觉得我们今天正好聊到过这个点。

I think we were talking about this today.

比如我有一个普通朋友第一次想买比特币，我会很坦诚地建议他买ETF，这在三四年前可是不敢想象的。

Like if I have a normie friend that comes to me and that wants to buy Bitcoin for the first time, I would probably recommend him an ETF to be completely transparent, which was not the case, like, I think three or four years ago.

而且说实话，连我自己这种自托管好几年的人，现在也在考虑把手里的资产集中管理起来，因为要跟上AI突破、量子计算这些领域的进展实在太难了。

And I think internally, even for people like myself, which, you know, I've been self custodying for years, I'm actually thinking now of consolidating a lot of the custody that I have because it's just like so hard to keep up with what is happening in terms of AI breakthroughs, quantum.

而且你只能看到像加密协议这样的项目关闭。

And you'd only have that like even crypto protocols like closing.

比如，我不知道你有没有看到 Abstract 这个 Layer 2 项目关闭，他们 basically 给了用户一个月的时间来提取资金，这简直太离谱了。

Like, I I don't know if, you know, you've seen this with like abstract which is a layer to his closing and they're basically giving their users like a month to to withdraw funds which is completely nuts.

整整一个月。

Like a month.

想象一下，如果你在澳大利亚度假两个月，回来发现钱提不出来了，他们至少应该给一年或者更长时间吧，这样才合理嘛。

Like imagine you're in holiday like in Australia for two months and you come back, it's like they should give at least a year or something like you know, that makes more sense.

所以从这个角度看，现在有很多方面都可能让你丢失资金或者忘记它。

And so I think from that perspective, there are just so many angles right now where you can either lose your funds or forget about it.

所以我觉得一些机构实际上处于很好的位置，可以在他们的平台上增加更多资产，并吸引下一个新用户。

And so I think some of these institutions are actually like very well positioned to add more assets on their platform and to onboard the next new user.

所以从公司角度来看，我们觉得加密协议和公司会表现好的，是一种杠铃策略。

And so I think from the companies, it's kind of the barbell strategy of what we think like crypto protocols and companies will do well.

要么是那些非常接近用户、拥有用户关系的公司，比如交易所、经纪商，要么就是加密基础设施，这些基础设施会被巨大的市场所使用，对吧？

Either the ones that sit very close to the user that owns the user relationship, like the exchanges, the brokers, or basically crypto infra that can get that is infrastructure and then that will get used by like a TAM that is massive, right?

在它上面会有很多公司进行构建。

Where you have multiple companies building on top of it.

比如，像Solana、以太坊、Uniswap、Aave，对吧，基本上有其他公司或Morphos可以在这些基础设施上建立业务，而且实际的市场规模要大得多，几乎是整个世界，就潜在市场而言，对吧？

So for example, like the Solana, the Ethereum, the Uniswap, the Aave, right, where you basically have other companies or the Morphos where you can build businesses on top of that infrastructure and where actually the TAM is much, much bigger, where it's basically almost the entire world, like in terms of addressable market, right?

任何处于中间位置的东西，既没有用户关系，又不是被大量人使用的核心基础设施，无论是交易、借贷、托管还是其他什么，我觉得都会非常艰难，对吧？

Anything that sits in between where you don't have the user relationship and your non core infrastructure that is basically used by a lot, a lot of people, whether it's trading, borrow land, or custodying or whatever you're doing, I think you're just going to have a very, very tough time, right?

因为你会被夹在中间。

Because you're going get squeezed in the middle.

所以，这就是我们现在关注的两类公司。

And so those are kind of the two types of companies that we're looking at right now.

哦，真有意思。

Oh, so interesting.

而且这很有道理。

And it makes a lot of sense.

关于黑客攻击，我想问你一个问题：你说过，如果一个普通朋友来找你，想买比特币，你会建议他们买ETF。

One question I did want to ask you about the hacks was you said that if a normie friend came to you and they wanted to buy Bitcoin, you would recommend they get an ETF.

你觉得在交易所持有现货的风险有多大？

How do you think about the threat level to owning spot on an exchange?

你认为ETF仍然更安全，还是在加密货币交易所托管比特币也很安全？

Do you consider the ETF still safer or do you consider custody Bitcoin at a crypto exchange also safe?

这是个好问题。

That's a great question.

比如，你见过Bitget吧。

So you've seen Bitget, for example.

加密货币交易所有应急基金，对吧，显然，他们可以在这种黑客攻击中使用。

The crypto exchanges have an emergency fund, right, obviously, that they can use in these sorts of hack.

目前来看，Bybit和Bitget似乎已经能够补偿用户了。

And for now, it seems like the Bybit one, the Bitget one, they've been able to compensate users.

但这确实看起来是会发生的事情。

But it does seem like this is something that happens.

而且我觉得实际上对于像交易所这样的某些公司来说，老实说，安全和监管正开始成为越来越大的护城河，对吧？

And I think actually for a certain set of companies like the exchanges, I think honestly, security and regulation is starting to be the bigger and bigger moat, right?

我觉得五年前内部更多是技术方面的竞争。

I think internally five years ago, it was more technology.

嘿，你们有哪些资产？

Hey, assets do you have?

你们能交易什么？

What can you trade?

你们能交易期权吗？

Can you trade options?

你能交易福利吗？

Can you trade perks?

我觉得这部分还没有被商品化，但很多人都在那里竞争。

And I think that part is not commoditized, but I think a lot of people are competing there.

现在，如果你在交易所工作，并且有完美的安全记录，从来没有被黑客攻击过，比如，你有一套许可证，在很多不同的司法管辖区运营。

Now, I think if you're in exchange and you have a perfect track record of security, you've never had axe, for example, you have a set of licenses that you operate in a lot of different jurisdiction.

我几乎觉得现在那种无聊的事情正在变成护城河。

I almost feel like right now that's kind of the boring thing that is becoming a moat.

如果你问我，劳拉，比如在交易所买现货比特币还是买ETF，交易所很重要。

If you ask me, Laura, like between spot Bitcoin on an exchange or an ETF, the exchange matter a lot.

现在，如果我必须在交易所托管，我肯定会做很多研究，看看他们的安全设置是什么，有没有发生过事故，他们如何处理事故？

Right now, if I had to custody on an exchange, I would definitely do a lot of research on what are the security setups, has there been previous incidents, How are they dealing with incidents?

他们有应急基金吗？

Do they have an emergency fund?

应急基金有多大？

How big is the emergency fund?

这些事情其实开始变得很重要了。

Those things start to matter a lot actually.

而且我觉得，说实话，美国的交易所有优势。

And I think for that, honestly, it seems like The US exchanges have an advantage.

它们受到的监管严格得多。

They're just much more regulated.

它们是上市公司。

They're public companies.

所以你有公开的资产负债表和收入。

So you have public balance sheet incomes.

你就能清楚地了解这家公司，这在欧洲和亚洲的一些交易所可能做不到。

You just have a clear picture of the company that you probably don't have with some exchanges in Europe and in Asia.

所以这大概是我现在能给出的建议。

So that's probably the advice I would give right now.

至于安全设置，很明显，交易所之间有很多差异。

As for the security setup, like, clearly, there are a lot of differences between exchanges.

我觉得这个会逐渐整合起来。

I think that is gonna get kind of consolidated.

我猜，像美国的一些交易所，他们的团队肯定在非常深入地思考这个问题。

I assume, like, some of The US exchanges have teams that are thinking very, very deeply about this.

比如，量子计算会怎么影响他们的安全设置？

So, like, how does quantum affect their security kind of setup?

人工智能又会怎么影响他们的安全设置？

How does AI affect their their security setup?

他们打算怎么过渡？

How are they going to transitions?

他们所有的合作伙伴，比如托管方、交易所或者合作的券商，这些要怎么接入进来？

How is all the partners that they have, like custodians or exchanges or brokers that they work with, how is it going to plug into?

所以这绝对是我三四年前可能根本不会去做的研究，但现在我觉得非常重要。

And so that's definitely some of the research that would probably never have done, like, three or four years ago that now I think is just very important.

这跟Kelp DAO的情况很像，你得去问那些非常冷门的问题，才能真正了解真正的安全威胁是什么。

It's so similar to, like, the Kelp DAO thing where you need to ask questions about really obscure parts of the setup to have an understanding of what this true security threat is.

在我们继续之前，因为我们肯定还会再聊这个。

Before we move, because we're definitely going to talk more about that.

但在我们继续之前，我想特别问问你关于比特币面对量子威胁的情况，因为显然它有一些独特的问题，比如中本聪的币。

But before we move on, I did want to ask you about Bitcoin in particular when it comes to the quantum threat, because obviously it's has a sort of unique set of issues with like Satoshi's coins.

还有社区的保守特性，甚至它的去中心化程度，以及他们有时很难达成共识。

Also, the kind of conservative nature of the community, even how decentralized it is and how hard they sometimes find it to come to consensus.

所以我很好奇你对比特币应对量子威胁的能力有什么看法，以及他们应该如何处理这些困境。

So I was curious what your opinion is on how well Bitcoin can face the quantum threat and what they should do about some of the dilemmas.

我觉得，正如你所说，中本聪的币让这个情况特别不同于其他币。

I think, as you said, the Satoshi coins make this case particularly different than the others.

你看，关于这个已经有很多文章了。

Look, there's been a lot written about this.

他们应该烧掉这些币吗？

Should they burn the coins?

他们应该等到这些币被转移吗？

Should they wait until the coins are moved?

他们是不是应该用这些币来支付电费和矿工的费用？

Should they use the coin to basically pay for tele emissions and miners?

外面有很多种说法。

There's a lot of theories out there.

说实话，我们内部一直在和行业里的一些大玩家以及核心开发团队进行很多讨论。

Honestly, we've been having a lot of talks internally with some of the biggest players in the industry and also the core dev team.

我们和MicroStrategy以及其他一些考虑这个问题的公司组成了一个联盟。

We're in the kind of consortium with MicroStrategy and some of the other companies that are thinking about this.

我觉得内部的情况和一年前相比已经发生了很大的变化。

And I think internally, things have changed a lot from a year ago.

我觉得人们现在对这个问题的认识更深了，他们知道这个问题是真实存在的。

I think people are much more in tune with this and they know that the problem is kind of real.

所以实际上我觉得他们比一年前要乐观得多。

So I actually think they're much more positive than a year ago.

我觉得他们会在Q日之前找到解决方案，然后会有一个过渡期。

I think they'll find a solution before kind of Q Day and there'll be a transition.

我不确定中本聪的币具体会怎么处理，但我觉得如果非要我说的话……

I don't know exactly what will be done with Satoshi's coins, but I think if I had to be...

我觉得一年前我比现在担心得多。

I think I was much more worried a year ago than today.

我觉得大家已经意识到这个问题了，而且正在努力解决，实际上已经有一些解决方案在推进了。

I think people are aware of this and they're working on it and there's actually solutions that are being addressed.

所以我相信社区最终会达成一个结论。

And so I'm sure the community will arrive to a conclusion.

而且现在依赖比特币的公司比两三年前多多了。

Also there are just more companies that are depending on Bitcoin right now than like two or three years ago.

就像我说的，有ETF发行方、交易所，还有开发者、矿工。

Like, as I said, like you have the ETF issuers, you have the exchanges, you hired the devs, the miners.

所以我觉得现在有更多人在思考这个问题。

And so I think there's just like more people thinking about the problem.

所以我觉得他们应该能及时找到解决方案。

And so somehow I think they're going be able to find a solution in time.

好的。

Okay.

嗯，这听起来很积极，也让人安心。

Well, that's positive and reassuring.

希望你说得对。

Hopefully you're right.

那我们现在来聊聊这些额外的黑客攻击事件吧。

So let's now talk about these additional hacks.

你之前提到了Ledger那次事件。

You alluded to the ledger one earlier.

所以很明显，这次这个，我是说，就是……

So obviously this one is I mean, it's just.

对，这让我想起了我们一直在看到的那些朝鲜黑客攻击，因为这次的问题在于一个经销商被卖给了新公司。

Yeah, it reminds me of all these North Korea hacks that we've been seeing because, you know, the issue here was a reseller was sold to a new company.

前老板，我今天看到了，他在推特上说，他被禁止在10月19日之前告诉社区关于这次出售的事情，也就是下周。

The former owner, I saw this today, said on Twitter that he was forbidden to tell a community about the sale until October 19, which is next week.

到目前为止，看起来大约有1亿美元被盗了。

And so far, it looks like about $100,000,000 has been stolen.

这些都是从单个设备里偷走的。

This is all from, you know, individual devices.

另外一点是，这才过了几周，就在Bitget被黑走4亿美元之后，情况还挺像的。

So the other thing that was like, this is just weeks after the Bitget hack for $400,000,000 and that was a sort of similar situation.

他们用的是第三方供应商，据说是朝鲜那边黑了那个第三方供应商，从而入侵了他们的票务系统。

They were using this third party vendor and allegedly DPRK is the one who had compromised that third party vendor to get into tickets machinery.

那你觉得，面对这类安全问题，个人该怎么保护自己？同时，整个行业又该如何在感觉如此脆弱的情况下，逐步迈入所谓的普及阶段呢？

So how do you think about these types of security issues in terms of how somebody can protect themselves against these types of situations, but also how the industry can grow into this era of so called adoption when it actually feels like it's so vulnerable?

我觉得一方面，就像我们刚才聊到的，比如人工智能和量子威胁，这些更偏向于数学层面的问题。

So I think on one hand, like, we just talked about, like, AI and the quantum thread, which is more like, I would put it, like, mathematical.

就是……

Like, it's...

你得去搞懂背后的数学原理。

You have to kind of figure out the math.

而现在，就像你说的，像Bitget和Ledger那种情况，更多是用户体验和界面以及安全方面的问题。

And now, like as you said, like the Bitget and Ledger one, it's more on the UX UI and kind of security.

说实话，硬件钱包这个领域真的非常非常难。

And it seems like the hardware wallet space honestly is such a is very, very hard.

因为供应链攻击太多了，要么是数据泄露之类的。

Because there are so many supply chain attacks that you can do either like data leaks.

Trezor、Ledger和Coldcard，基本上所有大的钱包供应商，在过去两三年里都出过好几次问题。

I mean, you know, between, Trezor, Ledger and Coldcard, like all the big wallet providers, basically, they've all had like several problems, like, in the last two to three years.

所以说实话，真的无处可藏。

So it's like there's nowhere to hide, honestly.

从用户的角度来看，真的没有任何地方可以躲。

Like, from the user perspective, there is literally nowhere to hide.

我觉得这个领域也很难，Laura，因为说实话，这……

I think it's a tough space also, Laura, because it's honestly, like, this...

我不知道收入有多少，但很明显，这个行业赚的钱不足以吸引其他大玩家来帮忙解决这些问题。

I don't know what the revenue pull is, but clearly, it's not a part of the industry that makes enough money to basically entice other big players to come bail and kind of think about it.

就像Ledger已经存在快十年了，而Coldcard和Trezor是较小的玩家，他们也在考虑这个问题。

It's like, Ledger has been around for almost ten years, and Coldcard and Trezor are smaller players and they are smaller players thinking about this.

但现实是，硬件钱包是专门针对加密货币的。

But the reality is like the hardware wallet is so specific to crypto.

这和矿机、ASIC芯片以及比特币面临的问题类似。

It's kind of the same problem with miners and ASICs and Bitcoin.

它们就是专门为此而生产的。

It's like they're produced solely for this.

它和其他消费类或金融类的安全问题没有重叠，我觉得这是一个非常小众的领域。

There is no overlap to any other kind of security problem of more consumer or like finance that I think is just a place where it's very niche.

你大概有三到五家供应商已经存在十年了。

You kind of have three or five vendors that have been around for ten years.

说实话，没人想进入这个领域，因为赚不到什么钱，这和矿机的情况差不多。

Nobody wants to get in this space because there's not a lot of money to be made, quite honestly, which is kinda the same with miners.

所以我觉得这个领域创新不多。

And so I think it's just a space where there hasn't been a lot of innovation.