AI 股票是新的铁路债券吗？

牛市还是熊市。

Bull or bear.

交易还是关税？

Trade or tariff?

未来趋势还是短暂潮流？

Future or fad?

每个故事都有不止一面。

There's more than one side to every story.

来自巴克莱投资银行的《反面观点》播客，两位研究分析师将就商业和市场中的热门话题展开激烈辩论。

With the flip side podcast from Barclays Investment Bank, you'll hear two research analysts having a provocative debate on hot topics in business and markets.

在你常用的平台收听《反面观点》。

Listen to the flip side on your favorite platform.

普希金。

Pushkin.

你想弄清楚金融市场的动向，它们想向我们传达什么。

You want to figure out what financial markets are up to, what they're trying to tell us.

专业人士通常的做法不是展望未来，而是回看过去。

The go to way that professionals try and do that is by looking not at the future, but at the past.

比如现在市场上的AI热潮，大家最关心的问题就是：这会不会像25年前的互联网泡沫那样，先暴涨后崩盘？

So if you look at the AI boom in markets today, the big question question is whether this is like the .com boom and bust of twenty five years ago.

这游戏与其说是占卜未来，不如说是低调地当个历史迷。

This game is less about gazing into a crystal ball and more about being low key a bit of a history nerd.

所以今天这期节目，我们聊聊为什么了解金融历史值得投入精力。

So today on the show, why it pays to know your financial history.

欢迎收听《Unhedged》，这是《金融时报》和Pushkin联合出品的市场与金融播客。

This is Unhedged, the markets and finance podcast from the Financial Times and Pushkin.

我是凯蒂·马丁，伦敦《金融时报》的市场专栏作家，眼下我们这儿债券市场摇摇欲坠，地方选举也快到了。

I'm Katie Martin, a markets columnist at the FT in London, where we have a wobbly bond market and a local election coming up.

还能出什么岔子呢？

What can possibly go wrong?

今天节目里，我请来了两位嘉宾，大家鼓掌欢迎。

Joining me today, I have a twofer, ladies and gents.

是的。

Yes.

我这边有那位大人物罗布·阿姆斯特朗在纽约。

I have that big Rob Armstrong over there in New York.

罗布，打个招呼吧。

Rob, say hi.

你好。

Hello.

别装什么搞笑的英式口音啊，罗布，因为我们这儿还有位真正的英式口音嘉宾。

Don't put on a funny English accent, Rob, because we also have

确实是个地道的英式口音。

An actual funny English accent.

这位是罗宾·威格尔斯沃思，FT Alphaville的主编，现在在阳光明媚的奥斯陆，还是个正儿八经的金融历史迷。

An actual funny English accent from Robin Wigglesworth, who's the editor of FT Alphaville, and also a card carrying financial history nerd over there in sunny Oslo.

罗宾，你好。

Robin, hello.

你好。

Hello.

不过，我今天要不要来个挪威口音？

Should I do a Norwegian accent today, though?

没必要那样。

No need for that.

不用。

No.

不用。

No.

不用。

No.

所以，Robin，我知道你向来不喜欢自吹自擂。

So, Robin, I know you are loath to indulge in shameless self promotion.

但你最近一直深陷在金融历史的细节里。

But you've been deep in the weeds on financial history lately.

你现在正在做的这件事，是和吉莉安·泰特一起在《金融时报》做这个关于货币历史的播客，讲的是金融史。

The thing you're doing at the moment is this podcast also in the FT stable with Gillian Tett about the story of money, which is about financial history.

你干嘛要干这种事？

Why would you do such a thing?

谁会关心金融的深层历史啊？

Who cares about the deep history of finance?

这有什么重要的？

Why is this important?

我做是因为我喜欢。

Well, I do it because I love it.

就像你一再指出的，我对这些事儿简直是个超级书呆子。

I mean, I'm, as you repeatedly point out, a massive nerd about these things.

所以我纯粹就是喜欢这件事本身。

So I just love it for its own sake.

我觉得这特别有意思。

I just think it's fascinating.

但就像你说的，我们确实能从过去学到很多东西。

But like you say, we do learn a lot from the past.

你可以引用乔治·桑塔亚那的话，或者温斯顿·丘吉尔的名言，甚至回溯到埃德蒙·伯克。

I you can choose the George Santoyana quote or the the Winston Churchill quote or even go back to Edmund Burke.

但你知道，那些从历史中学习的人，往往还是会重演未来的一些老剧本。

But, you know, those that that learn from the past usually kind of repeat some of the scripts in the future.

我一直觉得这句话说得太对了——那些不了解历史的人，注定会重蹈覆辙。

I've always thought that this quote was absolutely true, but those who do know the past are also doomed to repeat it.

所以

So

这话说得有点儿

Well, that was like some bit

成了个问题。

of a problem.

但把话题拉回到现在，真正推动当下局势的，其实是这个。

But bringing this somewhat more up to date, like, the thing that is really driving moment.

股市已经觉得伊朗战争没什么新鲜的了，照样一路猛冲。

Stock markets have decided that the Iran war is like old news, and they are just like plowing on regardless.

他们之所以这么不顾一切，主要是因为太盯着企业盈利了。

And one of the reasons they're plowing on regardless is that they are really tightly tightly glued to corporate earnings.

尤其是那些带点AI和科技概念的大公司，赚钱简直跟流水一样。

And really big companies, particularly kind of AI flavored, tech flavored companies, are just making money hand over fist.

但这背后其实一直有个挥之不去的疑问：这会不会像上世纪九十年代末到两千年初的互联网泡沫？

But that sort of links back to this sort of gnawing thing that people have in the back of their head, which is, is this a little bit like the .com boom and bust of sort of nineteen ninety nine, two thousand?

或者更糟，会不会像十九世纪末那场美国铁路投机热潮和崩盘？

Or worse, is this like The US railroad boom and bust, which happened sort of from the the late end of the nineteenth century?

再往深了说，这条线其实能一直连到三十年代那场真正的华尔街股灾。

And I guess you can draw a thread from there through to the the proper Wall Street crash of of the thirties.

你最近在播客里一直在聊这个。

You've been talking about this on on the pod lately.

先说说，对不了解的人来讲，美国那场铁路投机热潮和崩盘到底是怎么回事？

What like, do you think there are well, first of all, for people who don't know, what was The US railroad boom and bust?

其实，19世纪的时候，全球掀起了一场规模空前的铁路建设浪潮，我说的是真的，这不是夸张。

Well, essentially, in the nineteenth century, there was this gargantuan, and I mean it, you know, that's I'm not exaggerating.

那时候，全世界都在疯狂修铁路。

It was a gargantuan buildup of railways around the world.

就算今天的人工智能热潮，跟当年的铁路狂潮比起来，也就像大象屁股上的一只小飞虫。

It was you know, even the AI boom today, it looks like a tiny little gnat on the arse of an elephant compared to the railway boom.

我之前看到过摩根士丹利的一些数据。

So, you know, I I saw some numbers from Morgan Stanley.

他们估计，到2027年，超大规模云服务商在数据中心上的投入可能会达到一万亿美元。

They think that the hyperscalers are gonna spend maybe a trillion dollars on data centers by 2027 now.

但单说美国，当年铁路建设光是债券发行就高达560亿美元。

But the railway boom just in The US, just on the bond issuance, there was around $56,000,000,000 worth of bonds issued.

听起来不多？但你要考虑到当时美国经济规模小，换算成今天的GDP比例，相当于现在的十万亿美元。

And that doesn't sound like much, but if you scale it relative to the size of of GDP at the time, because The US was a small economy, that's the equivalent of $10,000,000,000,000 today.

天哪。

Whoo.

天啊。

Wow.

所以，当年的铁路建设，不管是发债券、股票融资，还是政府补贴，主要靠债券，规模是现在AI行业的十倍。

So the railway boom, the bond issuance, and, like, some of this was financed by stocks and government grants and so on, but largely by bonds, was around 10 times the size of today's AI.

别急，罗宾。

Give us time, Robin.

不行。

No.

绝对不行。

No.

没错。

Exactly.

等我们真到了那一步，才会意识到有多跨界。

We think it's cross when we get there.

年轻的力量才最薄弱。

The the weak is young.

是的。

Yes.

但那时候，有没有人像我这样，觉得这一切简直荒唐可笑呢？

But, like, at the time, was there much evidence of, like, you know, the the olden times equivalent of miserable people like me saying, this all seems a bit ridiculous.

你得记住，那时候铁路被认为是奇迹般的发明。

Well, you have to remember that that the railway was considered a miraculous technology.

当铁路刚传到英国时，人们担心时速超过三十英里会让人身体崩解。

When it first arrived in The UK, people were worried that people would essentially disintegrate at speeds over 30 miles an hour.

对。

Mhmm.

没错。

Yes.

当时的人真的相信，人类的身体根本承受不了这种难以想象的速度。

People genuinely thought that, like, humans weren't built for those kind of unimaginable speeds.

我们可能会在二十到二十五英里每小时的速度下化为尘土，或者直接疯掉。

We'd just turn to dust or at the verities go mad at around twenty, twenty five mile miles per hour.

而且它不仅仅被看作是一种神奇的技术。

And it so it was it wasn't only considered miraculous technology.

它确实就是。

It effectively was.

我的意思是，那时候

I mean, this was

确实是。

It was.

是的。

Yeah.

没错。

Yeah.

变化之大，简直令人难以置信。

Absolutely amazing the things had changed.

对吧？

Right?

我的意思是，美国才是这个热潮的中心。

I mean, The US was the epicenter of it.

当时全世界的人都为铁路疯狂。

Mean, there was people went railway gaga everywhere in the world.

整个十九世纪，铁路经历了多次兴衰起伏。

And there were railway booms and busts multiple over the the nineteenth century.

但美国因为体量庞大，真正抓住了这个机会。

But The US discovered because of its scale.

对吧？

Right?

它是最大的。

It was the biggest.

可以说，那里的人对铁路的狂热是最疯狂的。

It was, you know, where they went the most crazy for it.

我甚至觉得，铁路 literally 塑造了今天的美国。

And it my I'd argue they literally made The United States.

在铁路出现之前，美国根本算不上一个统一的国家。

The United States were not united until the railways came.

那时候，这个国家基本上只有西海岸有点规模。

And this was a country that basically had a bit of, like, West Coast stuff.

大片的中部地区还都是边疆地带，而且整个国家的走向是南北向的。

A big chunk of the middle of it was just frontier country, and then nor and it ran along the north to south axis.

但铁路建成后，你突然就能在加利福尼亚吃到缅因州的龙虾，或者在纽约买到加州的苹果。

But after the railways, you could suddenly buy, like, Maine lobster in California or Californian apples in New York.

你真的可以横跨整个国家旅行了。

You could literally travel across the country.

这在以前是根本不敢想的事。

It's something that was unimaginable.

简直就像登月一样。

It was like Apollo.

其实这相当于二十到三十个阿波罗计划的规模。

Well, it's really like 20 or 30 Apollo programs, essentially.

所以，本质上，人们发行了相当于三分之一GDP的债务。

So, essentially, people issued a third of GDP in debt, the equivalent of that.

结果怎么样呢？

How did that all turn out?

对债券持有人来说，结果可不怎么样。

Well, it didn't turn out great for all the bondholders.

是的。

Yeah.

不过，剧透一下。

Spoiler alert, though.

你大概能猜到会发生什么。

You can probably see it coming.

一路上出现了好几次经济崩溃。

There were multiple busts along the way.

其中有一次特别严重。

There was an epic one.

就像1873年那次大崩溃一样。

Like, just like a humdinger in 1873.

这可能是历史上第一次全球性的金融危机，因为它的导火索被认为是奥地利的金融崩盘，随后波及到了美国。

It was probably one of the first big global financial crises because it arguably was triggered by a crash in Austria that ricocheted over to The US.

所以，很多欧洲投资者在奥地利亏了大笔钱，不得不抛售他们的债券。

So basically, meant that lots of European investors lost a ton of money in Austria, and they had to liquidate their bonds.

当时美国铁路债券吸引了大量海外投资者。

There were massive investors in American railway bonds.

这些投资者包括荷兰商人、德国贵族和英国商人，他们纷纷抛售美国债券，结果美国市场彻底崩盘。

So these were some Dutch burgers, German nobles, British merchants, and they started liquidating bonds in The US, and then just everything just collapsed at The US.

当时这被称为大萧条，直到后来真正的大萧条发生，人们才把这次危机改称为长期萧条。

So this was, it was called the Great Depression until the actual Great Depression made this just known as the long depression.

是的。

Yeah.

就像第一次世界大战原本叫‘大战’，直到第二次世界大战爆发后，才被重新命名为第一次世界大战。

It's like how the the Great War the Great War became World War one after World War two came along.

是的

Yeah.

没错

Exactly.

是的

Yeah.

是的

Yeah.

没错

Exactly.

所以我觉得，从这里能得出两点启示。

So, like, it strikes me there's two, like, takeaways from there.

第一点是，所有事情都是相互关联的。

One is that everything is connected.

因此，你知道，某个国家某个特定资产的抛售，表面上看可能和另一个国家的另一种资产类别没有任何逻辑联系。

And so, you know, a sell off in one particular asset in one particular country may not have any logical link to another asset class in another country.

但一旦有东西开始抛售，人们开始亏钱，就不得不把其他地方的资产也卖了来应付账单。

But once one thing starts selling off and people start taking losses, they end up having to sell stuff elsewhere to to stay current on their bills.

这仍然是当今全球市场的核心特征之一。

And that that is still one of the defining features of of global markets today.

另一个是，铁路非常有用。

The other is railroads are quite useful.

它们能帮你把苹果、龙虾这些东西运出去。

They help you get your apples and your lobsters and all that sort of thing.

这项技术本身确实超级有用，无可争议，但你还是可能在这上面亏一大笔钱。

The technology itself can be super, super, absolutely indisputably useful, but you can still end up losing a ton of money on it.

我想，这正是现在人工智能领域争论的焦点。

And that, I guess, is the debate that's going on in in AI now.

你读这些内容的时候，有没有觉得有点先知先觉，甚至有点吓人？

Did that feel a little bit kind of almost like sort of prescient and and spooky to you while you were reading up on all this?

确实有，因为有时候你看到历史的相似之处，可能会有点走火入魔，但人工智能的相似点，简直是迎面给你一巴掌。

It did because it's you know, sometimes you can go a little bit crazy seeing parallels in the past, but with AI, they're slapping you in the face.

这很明显。

It's it's very obvious.

非常相似。

It's quite similar.

虽然技术不同，但人们总觉得它们能带来颠覆性改变，或者因为有些金融泡沫纯粹是金融性的，而这次的资本支出增长却是实实在在的。

Even though the technologies are different, you know, how people think they can be transformative or the the physical CapEx buildup because some financial bubbles are almost purely financial.

这可是个真实的泡沫。

This was a a real one.

我觉得，泡沫和破裂总是被污名化了，实际上，最理想的泡沫和破裂水平并不是零。

I do think that, you know, bubbles and bursts get a bad rap, that the reality is that the the optimal level of bubbles and busts is not zero.

我们几乎离不开这些。

That we almost need these.

我们需要人们失去理智，才能推动这些大规模的建设。

We need people to lose the senses to do these big build outs.

当然，人们确实会亏钱。

And, yeah, people do lose money.

但不幸的是，有时候这其中会伴随个人的悲剧，甚至社会性的损失，不过这些也都是我们前进过程中不可避免的一部分。

And, unfortunately, sometimes, you know, there are individual tragedies or even societal tragedies among it, but that's sort of part and parcel how we move forward as well.

罗宾，一个很好的例子是上世纪初不太为人所知的电信泡沫。

A a terrific example of this, Robin, is the lesser known bubble of the early two thousands, which was the telecom bubble of the early two thousands.

当时人们花了巨额资金铺设地下光纤电缆。

And people spent an epic amount amount of money putting fiber optic cable in the ground.

很多公司都倒闭了。

A lot of companies went bust.

几乎所有参与其中的人都以某种方式遭受了重创。

Every you know, most people involved got crushed one way or the other.

但结果是我们拥有了一个非常宝贵的生产性资产——如今仍在广泛使用的海量光纤网络和电信基础设施。

But the result was we got this wonderful productive asset, which we're still using today, which is tons of fiber connections, you know, and tons of telecom infrastructure.

类似这样的房地产案例还有很多。

And there's there's loads of real estate stories like this.

比如铁路建设等等，只要那些破产的资金最终转化成了长期有效的生产性资产，从长远来看，对经济反而是件好事。

There's the railroads, etcetera, etcetera, that these booms, if if the money that goes bankrupt is spent on a long lasting productive asset, it can be a good thing in the long run for an economy.

问题是，这些人工智能数据中心会是长期有效的生产性资产吗？

The question is, are these AI data centers long lived productive assets?

它们肯定能产生价值。

They're certainly gonna be productive.

但这些东西折旧的速度有多快，那就是另一回事了。

How fast they depreciate all that stuff is is another question altogether.

是的。

Yeah.

我希望能看到与能源相关的基础设施建设带来积极影响。

I'm I'm hopeful that the the energy related infrastructure buildup is gonna be helpful.

对。

Mhmm.

毕竟，光建个数据中心是不够的。

Because, obviously, you can't just build a data center.

你还得给它供电。

You need to power it as well.

而且希望吧，如果人工智能没那么成功，也没能把世界彻底颠覆，那也挺好。

And, hopefully, that may be you know, if if AI doesn't quite work out, that it, you know, doesn't quite revolutionize the world.

我们其实不需要这么多数据中心。

We don't need all these data centers.

不过我们已经建了不少能源基础设施，包括可再生能源、新型燃气轮机之类的，这些将来都会派上用场。

Well, we've built a lot of energy infrastructure and and renewable energy and new gas turbines and things like that that, you know, will be useful.

所以我还是持乐观态度，只是我觉得，迟早会有人亏掉天文数字的钱。

So I I'm optimistic, though I I suspect, you know, people will lose an ungodly amount of money at some point.

我希望二十年后，我们能说，这一切对世界来说总体上还是值得的。

I hope so twenty years on, we'll maybe say that maybe it was overall worth it for the world.

这挺有意思的，罗宾。

Well, it's interesting, Robin.

我目前正在写一篇关于苹果的文章，这家公司恰恰站在了人工智能的对立面。

I'm writing right now a piece about Apple, which is kind of the company that is taking the other side of the AI bet.

众所周知，其他所有大型科技公司，也就是那七大科技巨头里的绝大多数，都在疯狂投资建设AI数据中心。

Famously, all the other huge tech companies, all the other magnificent most of the other magnificent seven tech companies are loading money into the AI data center build out.

苹果的态度是，宁愿租也不愿买，咱们就看看接下来会发生什么。

And Apple is saying, we'd rather rent than own, and we're gonna see what happens here.

你知道的。

You know?

有人，我觉得，正在观察铁路行业这类历史案例，看到大公司是怎么做的，决定先观望一阵子。

So there is somebody out there kinda, I think, looking at the example, you know, a big money player looking at the example of the railroads or similar examples and saying, we're gonna take a little bit of a wait and see here.

至于这步棋到底值不值，还有待观察，但我认为这是一次重大抉择。

And, it'll be interesting to see whether that's a good bet or not, but I think it's a big bet

这是苹果的策略。

by Apple.

说不定还能赚大钱呢。

I mean, it could be a profitable one.

你看看苹果和谷歌是怎么合作的就知道了。

Just look at how Apple works with with Google.

对吧？

Right?

我的意思是，这笔交易确实面临监管压力，但苹果根本没自己开发搜索引擎。

I mean, this deal came under regulatory pressure, but, you know, Apple didn't build its own search engine.

它只是基本上选择了

It did basically kind

没错。

of Correct.

从谷歌那里拿钱，让谷歌搜索成为默认选项。

Got money from Google to make Google search the default.

说不定它对Anthropic或OpenAI也会采取同样的做法。

Maybe it'll do the same with Anthropic or OpenAI.

我觉得从中赚钱的方式多的是。

I think there are many ways people can make money out of this.

是的。

Yeah.

我得承认，和十九世纪的铁路热潮相比，最大的不同在于，虽然现在债务发行量巨大，但都是由利润丰厚的公司发行的。

And and I have to admit, the big difference, of course, even with the railway boom of the of the nineteenth century is that, you know, there is an awful lot of debt issuance happening, but by vastly profitable companies.

这些科技公司现在依然在印钞票。

Some of these tech companies still print money.

就算它们现在投进人工智能的每一分钱都亏光了，这些公司绝大多数也不会破产，这让我没那么担心了——要是我当年是个1872年的财经记者，看着铁路狂潮，估计早就慌了。

So even if, like, they lose every single dollar they are now putting into AI, these companies aren't, for the most part, gonna go bust, which makes me slightly less worried than maybe I would have been if I'd been a financial journalist in 1872 looking at the railway boom.

这个故事的启示是，今天看起来像自然规律、理所当然的事，明天可能就完全说不通了。

The moral of the story is things that seem to be forces of nature and make perfect sense today might not make perfect sense tomorrow.

有些赚钱方式，看起来就像在桶里捞鱼，稳赚不赔。

And and ways that look like, you know, you're shooting fish in a barrel.

这简直是躺着赚钱的路子。

This is a dead easy way to make money.

过几年回头看，你都会纳闷：当时大家怎么就脑子进水了？

You look back back on it in a few years time and you think, what the hell was everybody thinking?

所以你想想，2050年的《Unhedged》播客会怎么说。

So it's thinking of, you know, Unhedged Podcast in the year 2050.

对吧？

Right?

这一切都是由还没出生的人、人工智能，或者别的什么东西在操作。

It's all done by, you know, people who haven't been born yet or AI or some other thing.

他们正回望我们现在所处的2026年这个时刻。

And they're looking back at this moment in time that we're living in right now in 2026.

他们会怎么称呼我们正在经历的这段时期呢？

And what are they gonna call this this period that we're going through now?

因为现在发生的事情实在太多了。

Because there's a lot of stuff going on.

AI确实正在兴起，不管它最终会不会泡沫破裂，谁都不知道，咱们得承认这一点。

There is this AI boom, whether it busts or not, none of us know, and we should be we should be honest about that.

还有伊朗那边的局势。

But there's the situation in Iran.

在我看来，全球地缘政治秩序明显正在瓦解。

There is what clearly seems to me to be like an unraveling of the global geopolitical order.

各种多边组织都在分崩离析。

Multilateral organizations are falling apart.

战后秩序正在瓦解。

The post war order is falling apart.

像北约和联合国这样的机构正承受着巨大压力。

Things like NATO and the UN are under huge amounts of pressure.

我们从小到大都认为那些东西是天经地义、自然而然存在的。

Things that we've all grown up with that we think are just sort of natural phenomena that come out of the ground.

但实际上，它们都是极其复杂的组织，现在都面临严峻考验。

They are all actually quite complex organizations that that are under strain.

我知道罗伯肯定会不同意，但全球投资者确实在重新思考美元、美国国债的利率走势，以及美国股市的前景。

And I know that, like, Rob will disagree on this, but there is this push among global investors to think differently about the dollar, differently about the rate profile of US government bonds, differently about The US stock market.

你觉得，到2050年的《Unhedged》播客里，哪一件事会真正被记住，成为关键转折点？

Like, what do we think is gonna be the thing in the Unhedged podcast of 2050 that actually sticks and turns out to be a meaningful moment?

还是说，这些都没一个能算得上重要？

Or or or is it none of them?

我也不确定。

I don't know.

罗布，你先说吧。

Like, Rob, you can go first.

我觉得这很大程度上取决于我们是否会再次遭遇严重的通胀冲击。

I think much depends on whether we have another serious inflationary incident.

疫情刚结束时，我们经历了一波大规模通胀。

So we had this big burst right after COVID of inflation.

通胀这东西，罗宾可能不认同，但我认为它往往是决定一个金融时代的关键因素。

And inflation is like, you know, Robin might disagree, but I think inflation is so often the defining factor of a financial era.

如果那波通胀只是更大规模通胀和高利率时代的第一次震动，那我们将来被记住的，就是通胀在危机后五十年卷土重来的时候。

And if if that was just the first tremor in what turns into a higher inflation, higher interest rate era, that is what we will be remembered for is when inflation returned after fifty years in the wake of the crisis.

罗宾，你怎么看？

What do you say, Robin?

我真想学瑞安·科恩昨天在采访游戏驿站CEO时那样问一句——他会用‘我们会看到的’来回答所有问题。

I'm tempted to ask like Ryan Cohen did GameStop CEO yesterday in the interview where he said that we will see was his answer to all the things.

在《Unhedged》播客里，这种说法是不允许的。

This is not allowed on the Unhedged podcast.

不行。

No.

可惜，我们没有做对冲。

Unfortunately, we are unhedged

没错。

here.

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

伊朗战争现在看起来快要变成一场新的重大危机了。

The Iran war feels like it's now on the cusp to be sort of a neopocal thing.

如果世界上大部分地区都面临石油短缺，那我敢说，这不再只是2026年的关键事件，而可能成为更长时间里的决定性因素。

If we do basically large parts of the world run out of oil, then suddenly, I'm willing to say this will go from something that was a defining thing for 2026 as being something that might define a longer time period.

我认为，人工智能毫无疑问是其中的关键因素。

AI, I think, definitely is in the case.

如果人工智能真像有些人说的那样厉害，那今年会被记住为人工智能的起步阶段。

That's If AI turns out to be what some people say it's gonna be, this year will be remembered as the foothills of AI.

在人工智能之前的时代。

Before AI

它彻底改变了经济。

I changed the economy completely.

对。

Yeah.

不管人工智能最终是灾难还是给世界带来巨大好处，反正我们现在就站在它的起点上。

Whether whether AI is is is a disaster or whether it's a huge benefit for the world, either way, we're at the the foothills of it right now.

我听到的是，我们都得懂历史，但光懂历史并不一定能帮我们预测接下来会发生什么。

What I'm hearing here is that we all need to understand history, but that doesn't necessarily help help us to figure out what's gonna happen next.

不过，这倒是个挺有意思的思辨话题。

Nonetheless, an interesting intellectual exercise.

各位听众，我们马上回来，继续《长短论》。

Listeners, we're gonna be back in just one sec with Long Short.

今天的市场变化太快了。

Today's markets move fast.

只需十分钟，收听巴克莱简报，巴克莱投资银行全新播客，获取你需要的洞察。

Get the insights you need in ten minutes with The Barclays Brief, a new podcast from Barclays Investment Bank.

每周，我们的顶尖专家通过深入对话和情景分析，解读关键市场趋势。

Through sharp dialogue and scenario based analysis, our leading experts analyze key market themes each week.

无论你是管理投资组合还是领导企业，巴克莱简报都能帮你做出更明智的决策。

So whether you're managing a portfolio or leading a business, The Barclays Brief podcast can help you make smarter decisions today.

保持敏锐。

Stay sharp.

随时掌握信息。

Stay briefed.

在你常用的播客平台搜索‘巴克莱简报’即可收听。

Find Barclays Brief wherever you get your podcasts.

好的。

Okey doke.

现在进入节目的长短环节，我们会说说我们看好的东西，或者讨厌的东西。

It is time for long, short, part of the show where we go long, a thing we love, or short, a thing we hate.

罗宾，你今天来帮忙，你有什么想说的？

Robin, since you came along today to help us out, what you saying?

我投短票，就是杰米想收购eBay的那个计划。

I'm gonna be short, Jamie's deal to try and take over eBay.

哦，

Oh,

哦，那肯定不行。

Oh, that is not gonna

不行。

work.

这就像老鼠想吃狮子，根本不可能成功。

That is the mouse eating the lion, and it is not gonna work.

但这可是游戏驿站和雅虎的股票啊。

This is the GameStop Yahoo stock, though.

这就像一只注射了大量医用可卡因的老鼠，妄想吞下一头庞大的大象，还拿着一封加拿大投行写的、信心爆棚的信。

It is a mouse pumped full of medical cocaine trying to eat a massive elephant with a highly confident letter from a Canadian investment bank.

这笔交易肯定成不了，但咱们盯着看绝对特别有意思。

This deal is not going to happen, but it's going to be highly entertaining for us to follow it.

是的。

Yeah.

肯定会很精彩。

It is going to be entertaining.

所以，没错，这倒是它的优势。

So, yeah, that is definitely in its favor.

我倒是看好那种超小份的冰淇淋。

Well, I am long tiny tiny ice creams.

上周末，梦龙冰淇淋宣布全面转向小份量、精准控制的冰淇淋，专门迎合那些在用减肥药、不想吃大份冰淇淋的人，股价因此涨了不少。

So shares in Magnum ice cream rose quite a lot last week after it said it was shifting to bite size portion controlled ice creams for all those people on on the weight loss drugs who don't want large ice creams.

现在，咱们都能享受这种小份冰淇淋了。

Now we can all enjoy tiny ice creams instead.

我挺喜欢这个点子的。

I kind of like that.

小小一支冰淇淋，能让我们一整天都心情愉快。

Little tiny ice creams to keep us happy through the course of the day.

各位听众，我们周四还会回到你们的耳机里，记得准时收听。

Listeners, we're gonna be back in your ears on Thursday, so listen up then.

《Unhedged》由杰克·哈珀制作，布莱恩·厄斯塔德剪辑。

Unhedged is produced by Jake Harper and edited by Brian Erstadt.

我们的执行制片人是雅各布·戈德斯坦。

Our executive producer is Jacob Goldstein.

切丽尔·布拉姆利是《金融时报》全球音频业务负责人。

Cheryl Brumley is the FT's global head of audio.

特别感谢劳拉·克拉克、格蕾塔·科恩和娜塔莉·萨德勒。

Special thanks to Laura Clark, Greta Cohen, and Natalie Sadler.

《金融时报》高级订阅用户可以免费获取《Unhedged》简报，其他人也可享受三十天免费试用。

FT Premium subscribers can get the Unhedged newsletter for free, and a thirty day free trial is available everyone else.

直接去 ft.com/unhedgedoffer 就行。

Just go to ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

我是凯蒂·马丁。

I'm Katie Martin.

感谢收听。

Thanks for listening.