Boing! 市场迎来春天

今天的市场变化迅速。

Today's markets move fast.

通过巴克莱投资银行推出的新播客《巴克莱简报》，您只需十分钟即可获取所需洞察。

Get the insights you need in ten minutes with The Barclays Brief, a new podcast from Barclays Investment Bank.

我们的顶尖专家每周通过精辟的对话和基于情景的分析，剖析关键市场主题。

Through sharp dialogue and scenario based analysis, our leading experts analyze key market themes each week.

无论您是在管理投资组合还是领导企业，《巴克莱简报》播客都能帮助您今天做出更明智的决策。

So whether you're managing a portfolio or leading a business, the Barclays Brief Podcast can help you make smarter decisions today.

保持敏锐。

Stay sharp.

保持信息更新。

Stay briefed.

在您收听播客的任何平台都可以找到《巴克莱简报》。

Find Barclays Brief wherever you get your podcasts.

库什金。

Kushkin.

看起来投资者们都在大吃快乐药片。

It looks like investors are really popping those happy pills.

伊朗局势就是伊朗局势。

The Iran situation is the Iran situation.

情况依然糟糕。

It's still bad.

那边的船只往来很少。

There's not a lot of ships moving around over there.

油价仍然比年初高出50%。

Oil is still 50% more expensive than it was at the start of the year.

所以总的来说，情况并不乐观。

So in general, it's not great.

但嘛，管他呢。

But, like, whatever.

股市不仅已经回升了。

Stocks have not just recovered.

在美国，股市已经飙升至历史新高。

In The US, they've zoomed up to new record highs.

而且还有一些典型的过度兴奋的荒唐行为正在发生。

And there's some classic overexcited silly stuff going on too.

今天节目中，全国各地都洋溢着狂喜与喜悦。

Today on the show, euphoria and joy across the land.

这是《Unhedged》，来自《金融时报》的市场与金融播客。

This is Unhedged, the markets and finance podcast from the Financial Times.

我是普什金。

I'm Pushkin.

我是凯蒂·马丁，这里是伦敦金融时报大厦的市场专栏作家，春天正盛。

I'm Katie Martin, a markets columnist here at FT Towers in London where spring is in full swing.

真是美好的时光。

Lovely stuff.

我连线了大人物罗伯特·阿姆斯特朗，他来自纽约的《Unhedged》通讯团队，正在深入思考科技巨头的宏大议题。

And I'm joined down the line by the big man, mister Robert Armstrong, off of the Unhedged newsletter in New York City where he's been thinking big thoughts about big tech.

罗布，你感受到那种氛围了吗？

Rob, are you feeling the vibes?

氛围很好。

The vibes are good.

你感觉好吗？

Are you feeling good?

我感觉很好。

I feel good.

我感到兴奋不已。

I feel exuberant.

我现在终于体会到你的痛苦了。

I am Now that you feel your pain.

我现在正处于非理性繁荣之中。

Irrationally exuberant right now.

股票创下了新高，宝贝。

Record highs in stocks, baby.

是的。

Yeah.

确实如此。

It's true.

而且发生得如此迅速。

And it happened so quickly.

我的意思是，就在一周或两周前，你还可以抱怨说标普500自十月以来毫无进展，那确实没错。

I mean, the way I was thinking about this is, like, a week or two ago, you could say grouchyly, the S and P 500 hasn't gone anywhere since October, and you'd be right.

然后标普500就来了句：看着吧。

And then and then the S and P was like, watch this.

你握着我的熊。

You hold my bear.

是的。

Yeah.

而现在，标普500指数已经突破七千点大关，这确实是个重要的时刻。

And now we have an S and P 500 that starts with a seven, which is something of a moment.

我们以前从未见过它以7开头。

We've never had it starting with a seven before.

标普指数现在是七千多点，各位。

7,000 and something on the S and P boys and girls.

说实话，我真的不知道。

And I don't really know, to be honest.

你知道，市场在3月27日跌到了大约六千三百点。

You know, the market hit a low at, you know, 6,300 on the March 27.

那是什么时候的事？

So what was that?

那大概是两三周前，两周前的事。

That was, you know, two three weeks ago, two weeks ago.

从那时到现在，到底发生了什么变化，让指数从六千三百点涨到了七千点？

What changed between now and then that took you from 6,300 to 7,000?

我也不太清楚。

I don't rightly know.

我认为真正说得通的是，正如你我以及这个节目的常听者都知道的，市场是前瞻性的。

Well, I think the thing that does make sense is, as you and I and regular listeners to this show will know, markets are forward looking things.

对吧？

Right?

所以它们在预期能源短缺时就下跌了。

So they dropped in anticipation of an energy crunch.

在石油真正开始枯竭之前，市场就已经暴跌了。

So before the oil actually started drying up, markets like dumped.

而现在，它们又因预期问题将得到解决而上涨。

And now they're jumping in anticipation of a resolution.

是的，我知道伊朗的这场冲突目前还没有持久的解决方案。

So yes, I know there is no lasting resolution to this conflict in Iran yet.

但如果你对这个世界感觉乐观，总体上持积极态度，那么趋势就是朝着更好的方向发展，而不是变得更糟，这就足够了。

But if you're feeling pretty bullish about the world, feeling pretty positive in general, then the direction of travel is towards things getting better rather than things getting worse, and that's enough.

这样就很好了。

That's, like, fine.

让我补充一点。

Let me add to that.

我们已经经历了油价持续在100美元或更高的时期，但并没有导致灾难。

We've had a sustained period of oil at a $100 or more than a $100, and it hasn't been a disaster.

所以，好吧。

So it's like, okay.

世界在说：我们可以这样生活。

We can live like this, the world is saying.

你说得对。

You're right.

对。

Right.

你明白我的意思吗？

You know what I mean?

这是一种可以忍受的平衡状态。

This is a bearable equilibrium.

当然，这种情况可能是错误的。

Now that can, of course, be wrong.

石油专家一直告诉我们，如果封锁持续很长时间，油价不会线性上涨，而是会突然以波动的方式、呈几何级数而非算术级数上升。

Oil nerds keep telling us if the blockade of the blockade stays in place for a long time, that it's not gonna be a linear increase in oil prices, that oil prices will move in spiky ways suddenly and kind of geometrically rather than arithmetically.

所以是的。

So Yeah.

那样会很可怕，很糟糕。

So that it'll be scary and horrible.

是的。

Yeah.

但市场仍坚信，这片水域对全球贸易如此重要，无论如何，人们最终都会找到办法解决这个问题。

But the market persists in believing that this piece of water is so important to global commerce that one way or the other, people will figure it out and get this thing

他们会找到办法的。

They'll figure it out.

这就是市场的假设。

That is the market assumption.

所以市场认为，可能会出现一些问题。

So the market is saying, look, a few things can go wrong.

是的。

Yeah.

其中之一是油价突然飙升，涨到每桶200美元左右，并且长期维持在这个水平。

One of them is that the oil price just hockey sticks, goes to, like, $200 a barrel and and stays there.

另一个是央行可能会出现短暂的思维停滞，为了应对通胀风险而大幅加息，我认为大家都同意这会是个糟糕的主意，而且他们目前也明确表示暂时不会这么做。

Another is that central banks have a bit of a kind of brain freeze and jack up interest rates really hard to deal with inflation risks, which I think everyone agrees would be a bad idea, and it's something that they're certainly suggesting they're not gonna do just yet.

第三种情况是美国经济陷入衰退，但没人觉得这种情况会真的发生。

And the third thing is that, like, the The US economy falls into a recession, which nobody thinks is terribly likely.

这些事情虽然可能发生，但目前都还没有发生。

They are things nonetheless that could happen, but they haven't happened yet.

所以市场情绪良好，这正是为什么市场上会出现一些极其荒谬的行为。

So vibes are good, which is why you get really, really stupid things happening in markets.

现在，这里有一件荒谬的事。

Now, here's a stupid thing.

罗布，你经常对鞋类有错误的看法。

Rob, you quite often have incorrect views about footwear.

不过，请给我们讲讲一家叫Allbirds的公司，我不太了解。

However, please tell us about a please tell us about a company called Allbirds, which I'm not familiar with.

Allbirds生产了一种由羊毛、大麻或类似材料制成的嬉皮士风格运动鞋。

So Allbirds made some kind of hippie sneaker made out of wool or hemp or something like that.

我不太清楚。

I don't know.

这是一种鞋子。

It's a shoe.

它们曾经一度很受欢迎，但后来一切都出了问题，股价暴跌。

They were quite a hit for a while, and then it all went wrong and the stock collapsed.

那你穿过这种鞋吗？

So have you ever worn these trades?

你有在风格上验证过它们吗？

Do you have proven them stylistically?

穿过。

Worn them.

我听说我们的同事罗宾·威格尔斯沃思喜欢穿Allbirds。

I've heard our colleague Robin Wigglesworth likes an Allbird.

哦，那肯定糟糕透了。

Oh, they must be dreadful then.

好吧。

Okay.

所以

So

这解释了为什么这一潮流突然崩溃了。

This this explains why the trend came crashing to an end.

如果你认识罗宾·威格尔斯沃思，你就明白我在说什么了。

If you know Robin Wigglesworth, you'll know what I'm talking about.

罗宾穿的每一样东西都注定要失败。

Everything Robin wears is doomed to die.

我们不应该这样。

We shouldn't be.

他很快就要有自己的播客了，我们迟早该聊聊这个。

He's gonna get his own podcast soon, which we should talk about at some point.

所以他会因为咱们这么说而报复我们。

So he'll have his revenge on us for saying this.

没关系。

That's fine.

无论如何，这一切都彻底搞砸了。

In any case, that that all goes terribly wrong.

几个月前，股价崩盘了。

The stock crashes a few weeks ago.

我的意思是，他们自去年第三季度以来就没公布过任何财务数据，那时他们终于开始以历史性的速度烧钱。

I mean, they haven't even, you know, reported any financials since the third quarter of last year when the finally, they were burning cash at a historic rate.

股价下跌了大约99%，或者从上市以来就跌了99%。

And the stock is down, like, 99% or was down 99% from when it listed.

然后他们卖掉了所有资产。

And then they sold all the assets.

他们说，我们要进行资产出售。

They're like, we're doing an asset sale.

我们把品牌卖给别人。

We sell the brand to somebody else.

我们正在出售库存。

We're sending selling the inventories.

我本该知道的，但我不清楚他们长期负债、租赁承诺、长期债务等情况到底怎么样了。

I should know, but I don't know what's happening to they have long term liabilities, lease commitments, long term debt, or whatever.

所以这就像是一个带着一些负债的空壳。

So it's like this shell with some liabilities in it.

资产和一些短期负债已经被剥离，留下的就是一个空壳。

The assets and a few of the short term liabilities have been sold off into this shell.

然后，请鼓掌。

And then, drum roll, please.

让我告诉你他们昨天发布的声明。

Well, let me tell you the statement they put out yesterday.

他们说正在转向AI计算基础设施，长期愿景是成为一家完全整合的GPU即服务和AI原生云解决方案提供商。

They said we are pivoting, and I quote, to AI compute infrastructure with a long term vision to become a fully integrated GPU as a service and AI native cloud solutions provider.

这到底是什么胡言乱语？

What manner of nonsense is this?

他们一句话就把整个胡话宾果卡片都填满了。

They did fill up the whole bullshit bingo playing card in, like, one sentence there.

之后他们简直赢了教堂抽奖的大奖。

They they win the prize at the church raffle after that.

是的。

Yeah.

他们要把名字改成Newbird AI。

They're changing the name to Newbird AI.

你现在，罗伯特·阿姆斯特朗，听到这个，我，凯蒂·马丁，听到这个，都觉得这太荒谬了。

Now you, Robert Armstrong, hear this, and I, Katie Martin, hear this and think, this sounds ridiculous.

然而，股市却欢呼雀跃。

However, the stock market goes, hooray.

人工智能听起来很棒。

AI sounds fantastic.

因此，周三股价因这一消息上涨了600%。

So the stock closed 600% higher on Wednesday as a result of this.

没错。

Right.

不管这是什么

Whatever this

市场吗？

the market?

我们面前这个庞然大物的市值是多少？

Do we have the market cap in front of us of this monstrosity?

我觉得超过一亿美元了。

It's a 100,000,000 plus, I think.

关键是，几天前，据我所知，这还只是一个价值为负的空壳公司。

And, the point is, you know, as of a couple of days ago, this was a corporate shell with negative value as far as I can tell.

换句话说，它有一些负债，但基本没有任何资产。

In other words, it had some liabilities and basically no assets.

卖一些连罗宾·威格斯沃思都不再买的拖车。

Selling trailers that not even Robin Wigglesworth buys anymore.

我听说过。

I've heard.

而且，如果你仔细读一下那份公告，你只是从中摘取了最荒谬的部分。

And and, basically, you know, if you read down in that announcement, you just quoted the ridiculous part from there.

比如，我们有五千万美元的融资，用来启动一个GPU即服务的AI傻瓜机器。

Like, we have $50,000,000 of financing to start being a GPU as a service AI, dingbat machine.

里面就这么回事。

Inside of it.

对吧？

Right?

所以现在它就像一个装满这些负债的大盒子，现在值一亿美元。

So now it's like just a big box full of these liabilities, and it's worth a $100,000,000 now.

那么，凯蒂，这里到底发生了什么？

So what what's going on here, Katie?

给我一个假设。

Give me a hypothesis.

我来告诉你这里发生了什么。

I'll tell you what's going on here.

我们以前看过这部电影。

We have seen this movie before.

所以当你遇到一些愚蠢的、毫无根据的投机狂潮时，那些因为各种原因几乎已经失败或大幅缩水的公司，只要在名字后面加个词，嘿，奇迹发生了，股价一天内就上涨了600%。

So when you have, like, stupid, speculative nonsense frenzies about nothing, people like, companies that are basically, like, have basically failed or have shrunk dramatically for whatever reason, stick a word on the end of their name, and hey, presto, their stock goes up 600% in a day.

有一段时间，人们只是随意地在公司名称后加上‘区块链’这个词，或者随意加上‘加密货币’这个词。

So for a little while, people were just, like, randomly adding the word blockchain to their company name or randomly adding the word crypto to their company name.

而正因为这个世界太愚蠢，这就足以在短期内让股价大幅上涨。

And just because the the world is stupid, that is enough to send the shares up very dramatically in the very short term.

所以但是，

So But,

凯蒂，凯蒂，凯蒂，凯蒂，我不认为我们还生活在这个世界里。

Katie, Katie, Katie, Katie, I just don't think we live in that world anymore.

对吧？

Right?

尽管标普500指数的表现如何。

Despite what the what the S and P 500 has done.

真正推动标普500上涨的，并不是科技股。

It's not been tech that has been leading the S and P 500 higher, really.

我的意思是，科技股还不错，也有所复苏。

I mean, it's been a tech has been okay, and it's had a recovery.

但我们已经不再处于那种疯狂的、认为一切皆AI神奇的时代了。

But we're not in, like, bonkers, everything AI is magic time anymore.

你知道的。

You know?

好吧，让我告诉你，是的。

Well, allow me to tell you Yeah.

那么，另一个AI相关的事情。

Another AI thing then in that case.

我在这里看到星巴克官网的消息：推出星巴克应用与ChatGPT的测试版，一种发现你下一杯最爱饮品的新方式。

I read here from the Starbucks website, meet the beta Starbucks app in chat GPT, a new way to discover your next favorite drink.

所以，如果你真的完全无法决定在星巴克点什么喝——这种状况我完全无法理解——你可以问AI。

So if you can't if you literally cannot decide what to drink in a Starbucks, which is a situation I can't really empathize with on any level, you can ask AI.

它给出的一个例子是，当用户提问‘今天该试什么？’

And the example that it comes up with from a query saying, what should I try today?

答案是：冰棕色糖燕麦奶摇萃咖啡。

Is an iced brown sugar oat milk shaken espresso.

我的意思是，这项技术就是为了这个目的吗？

I mean, is this what this technology is for?

这太愚蠢了，凯蒂。

It's stupidity, Katie.

不过，这里有个观点。

Here's a thesis though.

我不认为任何投资Allbird AI区块链疯子股票的人——不管现在叫什么名字——

I don't think anyone who is bidding up the stock of Allbird AI blockchain wingnut, whatever it's called now.

燕麦奶摇萃咖啡。

Oat milk shake and espresso.

燕麦奶摇萃咖啡。

Oat milk shake and espresso.

我不认为任何参与其中的人会说：‘太棒了。’

I don't think anyone involved is like, oh, hooray.

他们现在靠AI能赚大钱。

They're gonna make loads of money doing AI now.

换句话说，我认为

Other words, I think

也许他们真的会。

this Maybe they will.

但我认为，这完全是投机交易者之间的一个自给自足的游戏——他们做出某个公告，人们就觉得，哦，这真是个有趣的交易标的，或者会有点反弹。

But I think this is a completely self contained game among speculative traders where it's like, this you know, they make this announcement, and people are like, oh oh, this is a funny thing to trade, or, like, this will get a little bounce.

然后，你知道，这种势头会自我延续，变成投机交易者之间一场有趣的胆小鬼游戏，他们追逐着上涨的势头，看谁先退出之类的。

Somebody and then, you know, it's self perpetuating momentum, and then it's like a fun game of chicken among speculative traders where they chase the momentum up, and it's like, who's gonna get out first and whatever.

我实在无法相信，居然真有人会用一种能帮你选咖啡的AI工具，这暗示了人类有多么糟糕。

I just cannot believe, despite the existence of an AI tool that helps you pick your coffee, which suggests that terrible things about humanity.

我就是不信有人会蠢到这种地步。

I just don't believe anyone is this dumb.

我不相信世界上真有那么一个人，真有一个交易员，会相信这个故事。

I don't believe there is one single person, one single trader in the entire world who is buying this story.

我不信。

I don't believe it.

我年纪大到还记得，以前市场非常严肃，那里总在发生真正重要的事情。

I'm old enough to remember when markets were very serious and very serious things happen there all the time.

但现在，整个金融市场的监管窗口都向这种纯粹的胡扯敞开了，这真让人烦。

And now there's just, like, a whole window of, like, fill regulated financial markets that's opened up to this sort of just bullshit, and it's annoying.

但我想，我向你提出的观点是，这种胡扯已经变得自我意识了，凯蒂，根本没人相信这个说法。

But I think it's it's the bullshit has become self aware is the argument that I'm making to you, Katie, that no one actually buys the story.

对吧？

Right?

这只是一个交易事件。

It's a trading event.

你知道，市场现在非常狂热。

We you know, the markets are exuberant.

人们的风险偏好很高。

People have high risk appetites.

肯定有一群人 somewhere 在享受交易这波小浪潮的乐趣，但他们并不认为 Allbirds AI 会很快与 OpenAI 或 Anthropic 竞争。

There is a community of people somewhere out there that wants to have fun trading this little wave, but they don't think that Allbirds AI is gonna, like, be competing with OpenAI and Anthropic anytime soon.

我们跳过这些无聊的废话，来谈谈更严肃的事情，也就是你今天在《Unhedged》通讯中写到的内容，这确实是个非常重要的问题，对吧？

Let's move on from frivolous nonsense to something more serious, which is the thing that you were writing about in the Unhedged newsletter today, which is about, like and it is quite an important question, isn't it?

AI 的价值到底是什么？

What is AI worth?

所以，有一小部分股票在人工智能生态系统中至关重要，它们支撑着金融市场的很大一部分价值，支撑着美国股市和全球股市的相当大比例。

So there's a lot of there's a there's a handful of stocks that are out there that are, like, super important to the AI ecosystem, and they're holding up a lot of sky in financial markets, holding up, like, a large portion of the value of, like, US stock markets and global stock markets.

而这一观点背后的逻辑是，这些公司能够为人工智能技术收取高昂的费用。

And part of the idea behind that is that these companies are gonna be able to charge good money for this AI.

但我们并不确定这真的会发生。

But we don't know that that's a thing.

对吧？

Right?

让我稍微重新表述一下你的问题，凯蒂。

Let me reframe your question slightly, Katie.

我认为更准确的问题是：人们普遍认为人工智能将变得极其有价值。

I would say the question is, there is consensus that AI is going to be very valuable indeed.

它确实会值很多钱。

It is going to be worth a lot.

关键问题是，谁来捕获这份价值？

The question is, who captures the value?

是的

Mhmm.

所以你可能会举航空公司的例子。

So the example you might give is airlines.

航空公司从为世界创造价值的角度来看是非常了不起的公司。

Airlines are incredible companies in terms of generating value for the world.

比如，我们想什么时候去法国就能去。

Like, we get to go to France whenever we want.

对吧？

Right?

我们可以飞往日本。

We can fly to Japan.

这是一个改变世界的重要行业，但所有的价值都被我们消费者获取了。

It's like it's world changing industry, but we've all captured the value.

作为企业的航空公司，经营状况却很差。

The companies as businesses stink.

对吧？

Right?

你知道的吧？

You you know?

因为竞争状况。

Because of the competitive situation.

问题是，

Like, the problem

公关人员，请发送邮件给罗伯特·阿姆斯特朗。

PRs, please email Robert dot Armstrong.

但问题是，航空公司的问题在于，任何有点钱的傻瓜都能开一家航空公司。

But, like, the problem with the airlines is, like, any dingbat with a few 100 millions of dollars can start an airline.

对吧？

Right?

这意味着

And that means

自便吧，罗布。

Knock yourself out, Rob.

是的。

Yeah.

当然。

Sure.

我需要的只是，你知道，这是金融界最老的笑话了，但你知道怎么在航空业赚一百万美元吗？

All I need is I mean, that you know, this is like the oldest joke in finance, but, you know, how do you make a million dollars in the airline business?

你先有两百万美元。

You start with $2,000,000.

你知道吧？

You know?

是的。

Yeah.

问题是，人工智能的竞争结构更像哪个行业？是像软件行业那样，盈利极佳、创造了大量价值并为自己捕获了大部分利益，还是像航空业那样，创造了巨大的价值，但我们却一无所获？

The question is, is the competitive structure of AI more like, I don't know, the software industry, which has been brilliantly profitable and created a lot created a lot of value and captured a lot of it for itself, or is it like the airlines that have created an immense amount of value and we got all of it.

对吧？

Right?

这个问题归根结底是：一个出色的AI模型，和下一个AI模型有什么不同？

That question boils down to, is a brilliant AI model, a, different from the next AI model down the block?

第二部分是，你能把它们保持为专有技术吗？

And part b is, can you keep them proprietary?

一旦有人发现了出色的模型，别人能轻易复制它吗？

Once somebody has found out a brilliant one, can somebody else copy it really easily?

对吧？

Right?

所以，如果每个人的AI模型都一样，那唯一的关键就是计算能力。

And so if everybody's AI model is the same, all it is is a matter of computing power.

像谷歌、微软、亚马逊这样的大公司，也就是七大巨头

And these companies, like the big mag seven companies, Google, Microsoft, Amazon

Meta。

Meta.

那么私有的那些公司，比如OpenAI和Anthropic，他们所做的只不过是建造了非常庞大的计算机。

Then the private ones, OpenAI and Anthropoc, all they're gonna have done is built really big computers.

对吧？

Right?

非常庞大的地方，里面有金属、GPU、电缆等等。

Really big, like, places where there's metal and there's there's GPUs and there's cables and whatever.

这是一门生意。

And that's a business.

对吧？

Right?

出售计算能力是一门生意，但它的回报会比较有限。

Selling computer power is a business, but it's gonna be a business with modest returns.

对吧？

Right?

这就像经营一家公用事业公司。

It's gonna be like running a utility.

而现在投入这个行业的资金，并不期待像公用事业那样的回报。

And, like, the money that's going into this business right now does not expect utility like returns.

所以，这就是问题所在。

So so that is the question.

AI模型是否具有差异化，能否保持专有性？

Are AI models differentiated, and can they be kept proprietary?

如果现场有观众足够聪明能回答这个问题，请发邮件给我们：unhedged@ft.com。

If there's anyone in the audience who's smart enough to answer this question, please write us at unhedged@ft.com.

不幸的是，我还不够聪明，无法回答这个问题，但至少够聪明提出它。

I, unfortunately, am not smart enough to answer this question, only smart enough to raise it.

是的。

Yeah.

所以这就是

So that's

我要做的。

what I have to do.

因为，是的，你知道，就像你在你的通讯中写的那样，如果这些东西真的是一种商品，对吧，它就像水一样，甚至更糟，像空气一样，那么就有大量资金投错了地方，这会对金融市场造成问题。

Because, yeah, you know, as you were writing in your in your newsletter, if this stuff is actually a commodity, right, and it it it's like water or worse, it's like air, then there's like a whole heap of money that's been thrown at the wrong thing that is a problem for financial markets.

对吧？

Right?

这 again 取决于你所说的‘错的地方’是什么意思。

Again, it depends what you mean by wrong thing.

我不太知道怎么念这个人的名字，我肯定会念错。

I don't I I never know how you pronounce this guy's name, and I'm gonna mangle it.

但达里奥·阿马德？

But Dario Amade?

我念对了他的名字吗？

Am I saying his name correctly?

我觉得没错。

I believe so.

他是Anthropic的首席执行官，是个非常有趣的人。

He's the chief executive of Anthropic, and he's a very interesting guy.

而且他

And he

Anthropic（人工智能公司）。

Anthropic.

我认为你承诺的就是这个。

Is I think that's the thing you're promising on.

真不可思议，他们居然让我来参加一个关于它的播客。

It's amazing they let me come on a podcast about it.

无论如何，你知道，他有一个想法，就是，他认为三四年之后，一个数据中心将会像一个充满天才的国家一样。

In any case, you know, he has this thing, like, you know, he thinks in three or four years, a data center, his term is gonna be like a country full of geniuses.

这家伙真的相信，疾病将不复存在。

Like, this guy really believes, like, there's not gonna be disease anymore.

我们将会，癌症消失了。

We're gonna we're like, cancer is gone.

你知道吧？

You know?

因为我们即将拥有比我们聪明得多的数据中心。

We're because we're gonna have the data centers are gonna be so much smarter than us.

AI模型将会比我们聪明得多。

The AI models are gonna be so much smarter than us.

它们将会治愈癌症、实现核聚变、解决能源问题、实现传送，一切都会实现。

They're gonna be, like, curing cancer, nuclear nuclear fusion, energy, teleportation, everything.

对吧？

Right?

如果真的发生，经济将会变得大得多。

And if that happens, the economy is gonna get a lot bigger.

对吧？

Right?

一切都会变得更好。

Things are gonna be good.

所以我们即将从让普通人喝冰糖油柑 shaken espresso，直接跃升到治愈癌症。

So we're going to somehow leap from telling otherwise normal people to drink iced brown sugar, oat milk, shaken espresso to curing cancer.

对。

Right.

我的意思是，好吧。

I mean I mean, okay.

所以我的意思是，如果人工智能让我们取得惊人的科学进展。

So all I'm saying is if artificial intelligence allows us to make incredible scientific progress.

这将是非常美好且有价值的，我们会很高兴谷歌、微软、OpenAI、甲骨文以及其他所有公司都在这些数据中心上投资了数十亿美元。

That is going to be very good and valuable, and we will be glad that Google and Microsoft and OpenAI and Oracle and everybody else invested billions in these data centers.

然而，对此不高兴的将是那些进行投资的公司的股东。

However, who will not be glad about that is the shareholders in the companies that did the investing.

因为，是的。

Because Yeah.

如果这些技术变得商品化，他们的回报将会惨不忍睹。

If it's commoditized, their their returns will be terrible.

我们都会为这些技术的诞生感到高兴，但投资者们并不会变得富有。

And we'll all be glad that these things were built, but, you know, the investors won't be rich.

资本主义历史上有很多类似的例子。

There's plenty of examples exactly like this in the history of capitalism.

所以，基本上，所有投资于铁路建设初期的人全都亏本了。

So, like, basically, everyone who invested in the opening round of railroads went bust.

对吧？

Right?

真正赚大钱的是第二轮投资者，他们在废墟上建立了企业。

And it was the second round investors who made the big money, who who, like, built businesses on the rubble.

对吧？

Right?

这些铁路得以建成，对世界来说是好事。

And it's great for the world that those railroads got built.

但对投资者来说却惨不忍睹。

It was just terrible for investors.

你知道吗，让我感到些许安慰的一点是，过去六周左右，真是让人震惊。

You know one thing that I do take some comfort in is, like, the past six weeks or so, it's been, woah.

哇哦。

Woah.

哇哦。

Woah.

哇哦。

Woah.

石油。

Oil.

石油。

Oil.

你知道吗？

You know?

我们唯一能想到的就是伊朗。

The only thing we've been able to think about is Iran.

而现在，我们又开始讨论人工智能是不是泡沫了。

And now it's like, oh, we're back talking about whether AI is a bubble.

大自然正在恢复。

Nature is healing.

是的。

Yeah.

我们又回到了这种感觉，真的好多了。

We're back to It is so much nicer.

真的好多了。

It is so much nicer.

但要明确的是，战争肯定可能恶化，到那时我们又会转回去讨论那个话题。

And to be clear, the the war could definitely get worse, and then we'll we'll flip back to talking about that.

但与此同时，我们马上回来，继续带来《Long Short》。

But in the meantime, we're gonna be back in just one second with Long Short.

看涨还是看跌？

Bull or bear?

交易还是关税？

Trade or tariff?

未来还是潮流？

Future or fad?

每个故事都有多面性。

There's more than one side to every story.

来自巴克莱投资银行的《反面》播客，您将听到两位研究分析师就商业和市场中的热门话题展开激烈辩论。

With the flip side podcast from Barclays Investment Bank, you'll hear two research analysts having a provocative debate on hot topics in business and markets.

在您喜爱的平台收听《反面》。

Listen to the flip side on your favorite platform.

好的。

Okey doke.

现在是《多空对决》时间，这个环节中我们会做多我们喜欢的东西，或者做空我们讨厌的东西。

It is time for long short, that part of the show where we go long, a thing we love, or short, a thing we hate.

罗布，你说什么？

Rob, what you saying?

凯蒂，我做多维尔莫思海峡。

Katie, I am long the Strait Of Vermouth.

什么？

The what?

我不确定你昨天有没有听到，但我们财政部长斯科特·巴塞特在谈论战争及其经济影响时，提到了这条关键水道，却说成了‘维尔莫思海峡’。

I don't I don't know if you heard this yesterday, but our treasury secretary, Scott Bassett, was talking about the war and its economic implications, and he misspoke talking about the crucial waterway and called it the Strait Of Vermouth.

而我今天所倡导的是，我们干脆把名字改成‘维尔莫思海峡’。

And what I'm advocating here today is that we actually change the name to the Strait Of Vermouth.

记得在本届政府早期，我们把墨西哥湾改名为‘美国湾’。

Remember, earlier in this presidency, we changed the name of the Gulf Of Mexico to the Gulf Of America.

这没错。

This is correct.

那为什么我们不能把这条海峡改名为‘维尔莫思海峡’，再往里面放上巨大的橄榄，顺便把金酒也泵进去呢？

Why can't we change the Strait to the Strait Of Vermouth and, like, put huge olives in it and, like, pump gin through it as well?

他一定是想到了马提尼时间。

He must have been thinking about martini time.

我支持他。

I'm here for him.

如果我有他那份工作，我也会这样。

I I would be too if I had his job.

顺便说一句，我以后再也不会用别的名字称呼它了，无论在这档节目里还是其他地方。

I'm never gonna call it anything else ever again, by the way, on this show everywhere else.

他还曾公开揣测，如果伦敦遭到核火箭袭击，全球GDP会受到多大冲击，我觉得这很奇怪。

He also mused out loud about what the hit to global GDP would be if London was hit by a nuclear rocket, which which I think is strange.

我认为他本意是想说明这会很糟糕，作为他的辩护。

I think he was trying to imply that it would be bad in his defense.

是的。

Yeah.

这种话公然说出来，是不是有点奇怪？

It's a strange thing to say out loud, isn't it?

是的。

Yeah.

总之，我支持烤肉串。

Anyway, I am long kebabs.