淘金热是如何终结的？

普希金。

Pushkin.

黄金和白银已经彻底疯了。

Gold and silver have gone absolutely bananas.

真的没有别的词能形容了。

There's really no other term for it.

这些贵金属在过去一段时间里持续上涨，2025年价格更是大幅攀升。

These precious metals have been on the up for some time with some really big gains in price over 2025.

但今年年初，突然爆发。

But at the start of this year, kaboom.

真正老派的、让你血本无归的暴涨行情。

Proper old school rip your face off rallies.

这些行情似乎完全没有上限。

There just seems to be no limit to these things.

白银目前的交易价格已远超每盎司100美元。

Silver is now trading well above $100 an ounce.

仅仅周一一天，价格就上涨了约12%。

It jumped 12% or so just on Monday.

黄金价格已突破5000美元大关。如果你觉得这一切发生得太快、太疯狂，我也有同感；但与此同时，你若试图阻挡这股趋势，后果自负。

And gold is well into the $5,000 If that all feels like too much too fast to you, then I'm minded to agree, but at the same time, you stand in the way of this thing at your peril.

今天在节目中，我们要探讨的是：贵金属是否已接近顶部，还是仅仅刚刚起步？

Today on the show, are precious metals close to the top, or are we just getting going?

这是《UnHedge》，由《金融时报》出品的市场与金融播客。

This is UnHedge, the markets and finance podcast from the Financial Times.

我是普希金。

I'm Pushkin.

我是凯蒂·马丁，《金融时报》的市场专栏作家，正身处伦敦这常年阴雨连绵的湿冷天气中。

I'm Katie Martin, a markets columnist at the Feet in very soggy London, raining all the time.

我连线了来自寒冷纽约的罗伯特·阿姆斯特朗，他是《UnHedged》通讯的作者。

And I'm joined down the line from super chilly New York City by mister Robert Armstrong off of the UnHedged newsletter.

罗布，这听起来有点失礼，但你现在穿的是什么？

Rob, this this sounds bad, but what are you wearing?

这挺有趣的。

Well, it's funny.

我穿着夹克和领带，但脚上却穿着登山靴。

I am wearing a jacket and tie, but I am also wearing hiking boots

不错。

Nice.

因为有雪，这听起来可能有点不协调。

Because of the snow, which may sound like an awkward combination.

但如果不是二十世纪最时尚的男士之一乔anni·阿涅利（Gianni Agnelli）因滑雪扭伤脚踝后，穿着西装搭配登山靴而使之成为时尚，这还不算奇怪。

Were it not that that had been made fashionable by one of the most fashionable men in the twentieth century, Gianni Angeli, who famously wore hiking boots with a suit after he twisted his ankle skiing, and it became a fashionable thing to do because of that.

所以今天我就直接穿了这种风格。

So I'm just rocking that style today.

所以，罗布，自从你九月份说你做空黄金以来，金价已经翻了一倍。

So, Rob, since you said in September that you were short gold, it has doubled in price.

天啊。

God.

所以听众们，当我们说这个节目不是投资建议时，我们说的是凯蒂。

So listeners, when we say this show is not investment advice, we mean Katie.

这真的不是投资建议。

It is not investment advice.

我们应该在 Feet 办公室挂一块牌子，纪念我对黄金的判断有多错。

There are we ought to put up a plaque in the Feet offices to how wrong I have been about gold.

应该搞一个互动展览，展示我对这个资产的判断有多么离谱。

There ought to be, like, an interactive exhibit of of how incredibly incorrect I have been about this asset.

所以

So

别这么说。

None of that.

你知道，我只是……我不知道。

You know, I'm just I I don't know.

有时候你就是会判断错。

Sometimes you get things wrong.

我把这个事情完全搞错了，错得不能再错了。

I got this one as wrong as you can possibly get something wrong.

凯蒂，关键是，这对我来说还是个谜。

The thing, Katie, is, like, it's still a head scratcher for me.

我仍然不太明白，但我开始有点懂了。

I still don't quite get it, but I'm starting to get it.

我的意思是，有一些论点我觉得更有说服力。

I mean, there are there are arguments that I find a bit more convincing.

那我们就开始吧。

So let's get stuck in.

而且，在很大程度上，这是一个视觉故事。

And, like, to a large extent, this is like a visual story.

所以如果你在听，就打开一张图表吧。

So if you're listening, pull up a chart.

对吧？

Right?

把它输入搜索引擎，搜索黄金走势图、白银走势图。

Punch it into a search engine, ask for, like, a gold chart, a silver chart.

你就会明白我们在说什么了。

You will see what we're talking about.

所以目前的得分如下。

So scores on the doors are as follows.

黄金去年表现不错。

Gold had a good year.

去年，它上涨了65%。

Last year, it was up 65%.

这已经很多了。

That is a lot.

今年到目前为止，它又上涨了16%，也就是一点六。

So far this year, it's up another 16%, one six.

目前它的交易价格约为每盎司5100美元。

So it's trading at about $5,100 an ounce.

而白银一直以来都相当无聊。

Silver, meanwhile, has been, like, really boring forever.

它基本上几十年来一直都在每盎司20到30美元之间波动。

It's basically traded at 20 to $30 an ounce for, like, forever.

2025年，白银上涨了150%。

In 2025, added a 150%.

这可是实实在在的大钱。

So that's like serious money.

但截至2026年，甚至在我们录制时一月还没结束，它又上涨了50%。

But so far in 2026, and January is not even out yet as we record this, it's added another 50%.

现在价格已经远超每盎司100美元。

It's it's well over a $100 an ounce.

我上一次查看时，价格大约是每盎司111美元。

It's about a $111 an ounce last time I checked.

这不正常。

This is not normal.

罗布，既然你正在逐渐理解这些内容，你觉得这里到底发生了什么？

Rob, to the extent that you are getting your head around this stuff, what do you think is going on here?

因为你可以对贵金属赋予自己任意的解读。

Because you can paint your own adventure onto precious metals.

你认为到底发生了什么？

What do you think is going on?

让我先说说我认为这不是什么，凯蒂，好吗？

Can I just say what I think it isn't, Katie Yeah?

作为开头怎么样？

As a way to start?

这是个不错的起点。

Place to start.

不是货币贬值，而贬值也不是你房子的最低层。

Is not debasement, And debasement is not the lowest floor of your house.

它的意思是，由于政府负债累累，最终不得不印钞并贬值一切，以解决债务问题。

It is the idea that because governments are wildly indebted, they will ultimately be forced to print currency and devalue everything in order to get out of their debt problems.

所以你最好持有黄金、白银、房地产或其他资产。

So you better own gold or silver or real estate or this or that.

贬值论的问题在于，债券市场根本没有显示出任何迹象。

The problem with the debasement thesis is that there is no sign of it in the bond market.

如果我们真的在全球范围内对债券感到恐慌，我想你应该会在债券或货币市场看到一些反应，但我根本看不到。

And if we were in a global panic about bonds, I think you would see something in the bond or the currency markets, markets, and and I I just don't see it.

我认为美元的下跌在历史背景下其实并没有那么严重。

I don't think that the fall in the dollar is actually that big a deal in historical terms.

基于市场的未来通胀预期指标完全平静。

Market based measures of future inflation are absolutely placid.

长期债券收益率略有上升，但幅度不大。

Long bond yields are a little higher, but not much.

你根本看不到这种迹象。

You would just don't see it.

你看。

And look.

我承认，有很多人认为全球央行本质上给债券市场注射了大量普鲁卡因。

I acknowledge there's a lot of people who say global central banks have basically given the bond market a huge shot of Novocaine.

所以债券市场基本上对任何事情都无动于衷，只是张着嘴呆在那里。

So it is basically unable to respond to anything and just sits there with its mouth hanging open.

但即便如此，我仍然难以相信，如果我真的在固定收益和货币市场中上下搜寻，却找不到任何货币贬值的迹象，而黄金却涨了三倍之类的。

But still, I cannot believe that I would search high and low in the fixed income and currency markets markets and find no evidence of this debasement, and yet gold triples or whatever.

我就是不认同这种说法。

I just am not buying that.

是的。

Yeah.

互联网上一些非常激动的人提出的观点，认为法定货币已经终结了。

This idea on very excitable bits of the Internet that says that, you know, fiat currency is over.

对吧？

Right?

比如美元、英镑、欧元、日元之类的货币。

So, like, dollars and pounds and euros and yen and all this sort of thing.

就像正常的货币正在消亡，它们将被金属取代。

Like, normal currencies are dying, and they're gonna be replaced by metals.

我的意思是，好吧。

I mean, okay.

当然。

Sure.

随便吧。

Whatever.

我的意思是，我们都清楚，它们会被比特币取代，凯蒂。

I mean, we all know they're gonna be replaced by Bitcoin, Katie.

有趣的是，你提到了我最钟爱的东西——比特币。

Well, funny you should mention my favorite thing, Bitcoin.

你注意到了吗？

Have you noticed?

多年来，比特币支持者们一直声称，比特币是一种对美元贬值的对冲交易。

Like, the whole thing for Bitcoin bros and Bitcoin girls for years has been this is a dollar debasement trade.

美元已经完了。

The dollar is over.

你生活中需要的是比特币。

What you need in your life is Bitcoin.

你有没有注意到，在黄金和白银这场盛大狂欢中，比特币做了什么？

Do know what Bitcoin has done in the middle of this big kind of massive party that's going on in gold and silver?

我不知道。

I don't.

没错，听众们。

That's right, listeners.

什么都没做。

Nothing.

它毫无进展。

It is going nowhere.

所以，当谈到比特币时，这又是对整个货币贬值论调的另一记重击。

So that's just another poke in the eye for the whole debasement trade nonsense when when it comes to Bitcoin.

但我们之前在节目中已经讨论过这个问题了。

But we have talked about this on the show before.

对吧？

Right?

无论是在各大央行、大型资产管理者，还是全球的储备管理者中，都有一种强烈的意愿，希望持有非美元资产，原因多种多样。

There is this urge, whether that's among big central banks or big asset managers or reserve managers all around the world to hold something that's not dollars for a variety of reasons.

你知道，2022年俄罗斯正式入侵乌克兰后，其持有的美元资产就被冻结了。

You know, there's there's the the dollars that got seized from Russia when it properly invaded Ukraine in 2022.

更近一些时候，还有所有特朗普时期的政策，以及对美联储这一中央银行独立性的种种攻击。

There's, you know, more recently, there's all of the Trump stuff, and there is all of this sort of attack on the independence of the of the Federal Reserve, the central bank.

对吧？

Right?

所以，有诸多原因让人不想持有美元。

So there's a bunch of reasons why you might not want to hold dollars.

因此，许多央行都在表示，他们其实更希望持有更多黄金。

So there's a lot of central banks out there saying, I'd actually quite like to hold more gold instead.

我不是要抛掉我所有的美元。

Like, I'm not getting rid of all my dollars.

我只是在买入更多黄金，这也会带动白银价格上涨。

I'm just buying more gold, and that pulls silver up with it too.

好吧。

Fine.

但根据我的好朋友——世界黄金协会的说法，他们确实是我的好朋友。

But according to the my good friends at the World Gold Council, and they are my good friends.

我说这话可不是在讽刺。

I'm not I'm not being sarcastic about that.

在2024年到2025年期间，全球央行的黄金购买量——此前2024年及之前两年的购买量已经很高——下降了超过三分之一。

Between 2024 and 2025, global central bank purchases of gold, which were very high in 2024 and in the two years prior to that, fell by more than a third.

这实际上非常合理。

And this this actually makes tons of sense.

如果你是央行，且对黄金有固定的价值配置比例，你就没必要再继续买入了，因为金价一直在上涨。

If you're a central bank and you have, like, a value allocation to gold, you don't have to buy any more of the stuff because the price keeps going

上涨。

up.

对吧？

Right?

你明白我的意思吗？

You know what I mean?

你只需要坐在那里，看着你已经持有的黄金储备价值上升。

You just you just sit there and watch your gold reserves that you already have increase in value.

你为什么要再买更多这种东西，往你的金库或别的地方搬呢？

Why would you buy why would you drag more of this stuff, into your vault or whatever?

所以，实际上，过去一年左右的黄金价格上涨，从央行购买的角度来看，很难解释。

So, actually, the latest run-in gold that, you know, over the last year or so, it's quite hard to explain in terms of central bank buying.

能部分解释这一现象的是避险资产性质的变化。

One of the things that goes some way to explaining this is the changing nature of safe havens.

对吧？

Right?

这是投资者在对各种事情感到不安时会购买的东西。

It's the stuff that investors buy when they're nervous about things.

通常情况下，美元在金融体系中承担了大部分这种避险功能。

Now, normally, the dollar would do the lion's share of that work in the financial system.

一旦发生糟糕的事情，人们就会买入美元。

So bad stuff happens, people buy dollars.

但由于明显的原因，人们越来越不愿意这样做。

People are getting more nervous about doing that for obvious reasons.

那么，他们还会买什么呢？

So what else do they buy?

其他常见的避险货币是日元，但出于各种其他原因，日元最近表现得很差。

Now the other normal safe havens, norm normal haven currencies are the Japanese yen, which has been doing actually really badly for a variety of other reasons.

所以日元已经不太行了。

So that's kind of out of the running.

还有瑞士法郎，它已经飙升到极点，给当地的央行带来了问题。

There's the Swiss franc, which has gone absolutely to the moon and is problematic for the for the central bank there.

但它的规模只有这么大。

But it's only so big.

瑞士法郎的数量是有限的。

There's only so many Swiss francs to go around.

是的。

Mhmm.

因此，部分压力被迫转向了黄金。

So it does mean that some of that pressure gets forced into gold.

我认为这里发生的是，一方面有人提出了关于美元在金融体系中作用的宏大理论，但与此同时，还叠加了大量赤裸裸的投机行为。

And I think what's happened here is you've got some of this grand theory about the role of the dollar in the financial system, but what you've also got on top of that is a huge dollop of just outright naked speculation.

有大量的人，无论是对冲基金、其他基金，还是个人和散户投资者，都对这种资产趋之若鹜。

There's just a lot of people, whether that's like hedge funds or other funds or individuals and retail investors who cannot get enough of this stuff.

他们看到了去年黄金价格的走势，于是说：‘请给我来一点。’

They saw what happened to the price of gold last year, and they're saying, yes, please.

我也要分一杯羹。

I'll have a bit of that.

所以这几乎像是这样一种情况：通常来说，黄金在发生坏事、人们感到不安时会上涨。

So it it's almost like a situation where normally, the idea is that gold goes up when something bad happens and people are nervous.

但如今，黄金和白银的上涨是基于恐惧与贪婪，这是一种非常强烈的组合，这意味着很难看出什么能阻止它。

But right now, what you've got is gold and silver are going up based on fear and greed, which is like a really heady cocktail, and it just means it's very difficult to see what stops it.

我想对您刚才说的话提出一点不同意见和一点澄清。

I'd like to have one point of dissent and one point of clarification to your what you said.

其中90%我都是同意的。

Most of which 90% of which I agree with.

但不同意见在于，您暗示了人们对美元作为避险资产的大规模逃离。

But the point of dissent is I'm not you you gestured towards a big flight from the dollar as a safe haven.

我不认为这种情况正在发生。

I don't believe that's happening.

我只是想把这一点记录下来。

I just wanna put that on the record.

我明白您是如何解读这些数据的。

I I see how you're reading the data.

我也看到了这些数据。

I see the data also.

关于这一点，我们只能持不同意见了。

We're gonna have to disagree about that.

这是第一点。

That's point number one.

我想澄清或区分两种不同的恐惧。

The clarification or the distinction I would like to make is between two kinds of fear.

我同意你的观点。

And I agree with you.

黄金就像是恐惧的实体化表现。

Gold is kind of like fear in physical form.

你明白我的意思吗？

You know what I mean?

但我认为你应该区分通货膨胀的恐惧和货币贬值的恐惧，而历史上，后者与黄金的关系并不强烈。

But I think you should distinguish or we should distinguish between fear of inflation and fear of debasement, which I don't think historically has a very strong relationship with gold.

有些年代里，黄金的表现逊于货币供应量、通胀率或其他所有这些因素。

There are decades in which gold underperforms the money supply or the rate of inflation or all this stuff.

它根本不是一个好的通胀对冲工具。

It's just not a good inflation hedge.

但在人们普遍对世界现状感到绝望、处于极度糟糕的时刻，黄金的表现却非常好。

But gold does really well when people just generally feel like hell about the state of the world in really miserable moments.

比如二十世纪七十年代，或在金融危机期间，或股市崩盘时，黄金的表现都很出色。

Like, the nineteen seventies or during the great financial crisis or during a stock market crash, gold does well.

所以是的。

So Yeah.

比起贬值理论，我更认同你提到的关于黄金的另一个观点，那就是投机。

The thesis I find more sympathetic about gold than the debasement thesis is the one you mentioned, which is speculation.

价格在上涨。

Line go up.

我们正处在一个非常投机的市场中。

We're in a very speculative market.

我们现在处于一个高杠杆的市场。

We're in a very leveraged market.

人们会追逐任何东西。

People will chase anything.

但第二点，我更倾向于认为人们现在只是感到恐惧。

But number two, I'm more sympathetic to the idea that people are just afraid right now.

当人们对世界状况感到害怕时，他们会购买黄金。

And when people are afraid about the state of the world, they buy gold.

所以我之前和一位基金经理聊过这些，他指出，如果你在屏幕上调出黄金或白银的图表，这条线就会急剧飙升。

So I was talking to a a fund manager earlier about all this stuff, and he was pointing out that, like, again, if you call up one of these charts, a gold chart or a silver chart on a screen in front of you, the line just hockey sticks higher.

对吧？

Right?

这并不是平稳的上升。

This isn't like a smooth ascent.

它直接飙升。

It just goes wee.

这甚至不是一个曲棍球杆。

It's not even a hockey stick.

它就像一个直角。

It's like a right angle.

它

It's

就像对。

like Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

而且这位先生告诉我的是，这种价格走势、这种图表模式，如果没有相当程度的杠杆，根本不可能出现，这意味着市场上很多人——可能是散户投资者，比如像你我这样的普通投资者——

Just And and what this chap was saying to me is, look, that sort of price action, those sorts of patterns on charts simply do not happen without a fair amount of leverage, which means that a lot of people out there, probably retail investors, you know, mom and pop investors and people like me and you

是的。

Yep.

都在借钱来参与黄金和白银的价格波动。

Are borrowing money to get themselves some exposure to gold and silver prices.

那就是你会看到一些不太健康的现象发生。

That's when you get, like, stuff going on that doesn't feel very healthy.

所以，就像我说的，周一的时候，白银价格飙升，然后暴跌，接着又再次飙升，但全天结束时基本回到了起点。

So, like, as I say, on Monday, the silver price rocketed and then tanked and then rocketed again and ended up the day pretty much like where it started.

但在当天的某个时刻，它一天之内上涨了12%。

But at a certain point in the day, it was up 12% in a day.

我的担忧是，一天之内上涨12%的事情往往会引发事故。

My worry, I guess, is things that go up 12% in a day cause accidents.

任何东西出现这么大的波动都不可能是好事。

It's just never good to have that much volatility in anything.

所以我觉得有很多散户情绪高涨，而且杠杆使用也很普遍。

So I think there's a lot of retail excitement, and I think there's a lot of leverage.

而且我觉得图表上有些走势让我一看就心里一紧：糟了。

And I think there's that there are just lines on charts that make me go, oh, no.

别在意。

Don't mind.

凯蒂，看看黄金和白银过去五十年的走势图，按通货膨胀调整后的数据，也就是剔除了通胀因素，历史上曾出现过像我们现在看到的这种大幅价格飙升。

Look at a fifty year chart, Katie, of gold and silver in inflation adjusted terms, so we're just taking inflation out of it, there are historically big spikes in price like the one we are seeing now.

一次是在1979到1981年，另一次是在2011年左右。

One around 1979, '81 around 2011.

关键是，过去那两次情况都是买入黄金和白银的糟糕时机。

And the thing is, those past two incidents were horrendous times to buy gold and silver.

你知道吗？

You know?

如果你在2011年左右接近黄金并持有相当长一段时间，那你肯定被套牢了。

If you went anywhere near gold in 2011 and you held for any considerable amount of time, you got smoked.

同样地，在

Similarly in

八十年代。

the eighties.

所以，对像我这样保守的价值投资者来说，这张图表并不吸引人。

So the chart is not very appetizing to a kind of fuddy duddy value person such as myself.

确实是

It is

但在这个黄金和白银的特殊时刻，我发现我的收件箱里通常会塞满来自那些非常理智的、处于底部的投资银行人士的邮件，他们说：‘等等，大家注意了。’

But what I'm I'm finding in this sort of moment that we've got in gold and silver is that normally my inbox fills up with very sensible people at very sort of bottomed up investment banks saying, woah there, everyone.

这局面有点失控了。

This is all getting out of hand.

咱们不如稍微停一停，冷静一下。

Let's just, you know, take a bit of a bit of a time out here.

不行。

Nuh-uh.

这次不一样。

Not this time.

就在我去录音棚之前，我收到了来自大型投行花旗的一条消息。

So just before I came down to the studio to to record this, I got a note in from Citi, the the big investment bank.

他们表示，已将未来三到六个月的价格预测从每盎司100美元上调至150美元。

They were saying they've upgraded their zero to three month price forecast from a $100 an ounce to $150 an ounce.

所以他们认为这件事势头强劲。

So they think this thing, that is chunky.

他们说，如果你看看白银通常相对于黄金价格的交易方式，那么回到那个指标，就会得出大约每盎司160到170美元，甚至高达300美元的结果——这正是1979年我们曾达到的水平。

And they say if you look at the sort of way that silver normally trades in relation to the price of gold, then if you go back to that sort of that sort of metric, that would take you to about $1.60, $170 an ounce, or even up to $300 an ounce, which is what we had in 1979.

所以还有另一件事，人们不断告诉我：当这类资产启动时，它的走势会非常迅猛。

So this is another thing that people keep saying to me is that when this stuff moves, it moves.

比如，黄金和白银的价格确实可能剧烈波动，因为白银相比黄金有更多工业用途。

Like, gold and silver prices can really shift because, you know, okay, silver has rather more of a kind of industrial use case than than gold does.

但事实上，当这些资产纯粹作为贵金属交易时，其实并没有太多基本面因素起作用。

But really, these things, when they're trading just like precious metals, then there's not really many fundamentals that matter here, if you like.

所以当价格上涨时，它可能大幅飙升；当价格下跌时，也可能急剧下挫。

So when the price jumps, it can really jump, and when it falls, it can really fall.

而目前，它正在急剧上涨。

And right now, it's really jumping.

我们或许应该谈谈，凯蒂，关于工业方面的问题

We should probably talk, Katie, about the industrial side

关于白银，是的。

of silver Well, yeah.

这一点在这里很重要。

Which is important here.

对吧？

Right?

今天早上我一直在读一个叫亚历山大·坎贝尔的人，他有一个名为《坎贝尔闲谈》的Substack。

So I I've been reading this guy called Alexander Campbell this morning who has a substack called, Campbell ramble.

他提出了一个非常明确的观点，特别是关于太阳能需求方面。

And he makes a very kind of well defined case that especially with solar demand.

白银被用于太阳能电池板。

Silver goes into solar panels.

随着越来越多的太阳能装机容量建成，这种需求正在增长。

That demand is increasing as more and more solar capacity gets built.

同时，他提出一个论点，认为白银的供应弹性并不大。

At the same time, he makes this argument that the supply of silver is not that elastic.

这意味着，实际上价格会上涨。

Meaning, actually, the price goes up.

从地下开采出的银并不会因此大幅增加，因为大多数银是作为开采其他金属（如黄金、铜等）的副产品被提取出来的。

Not that much more silver comes out of the ground because most silver that comes out of the ground is a byproduct of looking for other metals like gold or whatever else, copper, you get some silver with that.

所以供应量不会随之响应。

So the supply doesn't respond.

因此他的观点是，供应缺乏弹性，而需求却在增长。

So his argument is we have rigid supply, growing demand.

瞧，来了。

Here we go.

它已经开始了。

It is on.

对吧？

Right?

价格已经飙升，而且还会继续暴涨。

The price is gonna go bananas as it already is.

我

I

不禁在想。

find myself wondering.

正如你所说，银在太阳能电池板中非常重要。

So as you say, like, silver is really important in solar panels.

我知道它在电动汽车和驱动人工智能的高端计算机中也至关重要。

I understand it's really important in electric vehicles and in the big fancy computers that make AI tick.

肯定有很多公司需要购买银来制造他们的产品，现在正深受其苦。

There's gotta be a lot of companies out there that need to buy silver to make their widgets work that are really feeling the pain here.

我只是好奇，什么时候会有人撑不住，或者拉响警报，说这真的让我们受不了了。

I just sort of wonder, you know, when we're gonna see someone fall over or, like, hit the alarm and say, this is really hurting us.

坎贝尔在他的博客中指出，白银期货市场已经疯狂了，显然人们正在拼命抢购这种物资。

Campbell makes the point in his blog that the silver futures market is going bananas, so people are clearly really scrambling for supply of that stuff.

我猜测，这主要是工业用户，而不是投机者，他们在说：我们必须现在就锁定这些物资，不管什么价格，因为我们得生产太阳能板或汽车。

And I would guess that's industrial users rather than speculative users being like, we got we gotta lock this stuff in now at whatever price because we got panels to make or we got cars to make.

你知道吧？

You know?

是的。

Yeah.

另一个复杂因素是，很快我们将决定是否将白银纳入美国新的关键矿物法规范围。

So The other complicating factor there is that fairly soon, we're going to have a decision on whether silver gets taken in scope for new US rules on critical minerals.

因此，工业用户已经大量囤积白银，尽可能提前囤货并持有，因为他们认为未来白银价格会变得极其昂贵。

So there's been quite a lot of stockpiling of silver, like industrial users getting hold of as much of this stuff in advance as they can and holding onto it because they think it's gonna be painfully expensive in future.

这导致市场上几乎没有什么白银作为自由流通量存在。

What that does is it means there's not that much silver kicking around as almost like a free float.

因此，真正可供交易、人们愿意放手并允许交易的白银数量非常少。

So the amount that's actually there and available for trading that people are willing to let go of and allow to be traded is quite small.

而这，再次说明了为什么我认为白银的表现就像一只迷因股。

And that, again, it it that's why I think silver is acting like a like a meme stock.

你还记得2021年那件事吗？当时像GameStop这样的股票疯狂飙升，一堆美国小盘垃圾股因为流通量极小而彻底失控，有人赚了大钱，也有人亏了大钱。

Do you remember that thing in 2021 when, like, GameStop went bananas and there was a bunch of, like, trashy US stocks that had small free floats that just went absolutely postal, and people made loads of money, lost loads of money.

这是一场巨大的闹剧。

It was a huge drama.

实际上，白银现在就像一只迷因股票一样交易。

Effectively, silver is trading like a meme stock now.

而且我认为，如果你正在听这个，心里想着‘我要把全部积蓄都投进白银’，祝你好运。

And and I think that means, you know, if you're listening to this and you're thinking, oh, I'm going to put my life savings into silver, good luck with that.

但你应该意识到，当某些东西像迷因股票一样迅速上涨时，它们也可能迅速下跌，而且波动性会非常高。

But you should be aware that when things go up really, really quickly like a meme stock, they can come down really, really quickly as well, and and the volatility can be really high.

我愿意打赌白银最终还会继续上涨，但你肯定会经历回撤。

And I wouldn't mind betting that silver does end up, like, carry on pushing higher, but you're gonna get some drawdowns.

你会经历一些上下波动，如果你现在买入，这些波动可能会让你很痛苦。

You're gonna get some up and down action that could get painful if you're buying at this point.

我们来谈谈什么会打破这种局面。

Let's talk about what can break the spell.

什么因素能让这种情况发生逆转？

What what can make this turn around?

因为这太荒谬了。

Because this is silly.

对吧？

Right?

什么能阻止这种荒谬？

What can stop the silly?

我不确定这真有你想象的那么荒谬。

I'm not sure it's quite as silly as you think it is.

这确实有点荒谬，但我的意思是，我认为这里确实存在投机成分，不过鉴于我以前对这个问题判断失误，我现在逐渐认同一种观点：在黄金方面，它在投资组合中的地位与十年前已有所不同。

It's silly, but I'm I mean, I think there is a speculative element here, but I think having been very wrong about this before, I'm coming around to the view that there has been some kind of regime change where in the case of gold, gold has a different place in portfolios than it did ten years ago.

而在白银方面，其供需动态也可能与十年前或十五年前有所不同。

And in the case of silver, the supply demand dynamic might be a little different than it was ten or fifteen years ago.

所以我只是想提一下这一点。

So I I just wanna put that out there.

但什么会打破这种魔咒？

But what breaks the spell?

正如我们在通讯中所写的那样，正如我的同事哈克·杨在通讯中所写的那样，一场政治理性的爆发。

Well, as we've written in the newsletter, as my colleague, Hack Young, wrote in the newsletter, an outbreak of political sanity.

风险在于世界和平、正义与幸福，以及手拉手唱《坎巴亚》歌，那时我们都会卖掉黄金，像普通人一样去买股票。

The risk is world peace and justice and happiness and holding hands and singing Kumbaya, at which point we all sell our gold and just buy stocks like normal people.

我们假设这种情况不会发生。

Let's assume that's not gonna happen.

那那

What what

别这样，凯蒂。

Come on now, Katie.

好事有时也会发生。

Good things happen sometimes.

中期选举，你知道，也许美国会形成一个严重分裂的政府，那样一来，美国就不可能再把事情搞得更糟了。

Midterms, you know, maybe we get a a deeply split government in The United States, at which point it's impossible for America to screw anything more up.

对吧？

Right?

在全球范围内？

Globally?

不过，时间很长。

Ages, though.

时间跨度很长。

There's ages.

在那之前，黄金和白银的上涨空间要大得多。

You get a lot more upside in gold and silver before then.

总之，世界和平。

Anyway, world peace.

世界和平是黄金面临的首要风险。

World peace is risk number one to gold.

所以，我们假设世界和平不会发生。

So let's assume world peace is not gonna happen.

另一件可能稍微更可能发生的事，有几个人跟我提到过，是因为黄金和白银的走势至少有一部分源于杠杆投资，依赖于借贷资金，其中包含了大量散户资金。

The other thing that might be slightly more likely, a few people have mentioned to me, is because you've got this element where at least a decent slice of what's happening in gold and silver is about leveraged investment, it's based on borrowed money, there's a lot of retail money in there.

如果出于任何原因，股市出现下跌，比如股票下跌了10%，不管是什么原因，都会有很多人被迫抛售他们的黄金和白银头寸，以弥补损失。

If for whatever reason we were to see a hit to the stock market, say stocks fell 10% for, I don't know, whatever reason, make up your reason, there's gonna be a lot of people who are kind of forced to sell out of their gold and silver positions to kind of make themselves whole again.

但就目前而言，我不会对黄金和白银的爱好者有任何贬低。

But for now, I mean, I'm not gonna take anything away from the gold and silver bugs.

他们正在发挥一部分作用

They are having a part of

他们确实有

They have

我错了。

I've been wrong.

我向他们致敬。

I tip my hat to them.

他们欠我钱。

They are my debt.

你有。

You've god.

波士顿的体育迷会知道这是在指什么。

Boston sports fans will know that's what that's a reference to.

但好吧。

But Okay.

我不。

I don't.

因此，出于这个原因，我会说我们马上回来，继续与LongShort一起。

So for that reason, I'm gonna say we're gonna be back in just one sec with LongShort.

好的。

Okey doke.

现在是Long Short环节，这是我们推荐喜欢的事物或反对讨厌的事物的环节。

It's time for long short, that part of the show where we go long, a thing we love, or short, a thing we hate.

罗布，你说什么？

Rob, what you saying?

我看好新英格兰爱国者队，那是我的美式橄榄球队，他们已经晋级超级碗，你可能知道，这是在美国非常重要的一项体育赛事。

I am long, the New England Patriots, which is my American football team that has qualified for the Super Bowl, which you may know is a very important sporting contest we have here in America.

而且我尤其享受的是，全美国其他地方的人都讨厌爱国者队，而我正沉浸在他们对我的愤怒之中。

And I'm especially along the fact that everyone else in the country outside of New England hates the Patriots, and I'm just basking in the rage of the rest of the country.

你因为在英国待过一段时间，所以有这种感觉吗？

Do you have because you spent some time in The UK.

有没有类似英格兰足球队那样的球队，就是那种

Is there an equivalent football team that like, English football team that

我想应该是曼联，在他们不断赢得所有奖杯的那个时期，全国其他人都说：我们受够了。

I I guess it would be I would it would be probably Manchester United at that phase when it was just winning every trophy, and the rest of the country was like, we're sick of this.

你可能会说是曼城，但好吧。

You might be Man City, but okay.

是的。

Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

我记得曼城是不是曾经一直统治一切，每个人都对此感到厌倦了。

I get was it Man City that was just, like, an endless streak of dominating everything, and everyone just got heartily tired of it.

是的。

Yeah.

好的。

Alright.

所以你就是那种人。

So you're that person.

有意思。

Interesting.

我不太确定，但我好像在追那部梅拉尼娅的电影。

So I I'm not sure, but I think I'm long the Melania movie.

我的理解是，没人会去看它，但我个人很好奇，它会不会变成那种‘烂得好看’的类型，像《黑客帝国》那样。

Like, so I I gather, like, nobody's going to see it, but I'm personally curious if it crosses into the so bad, it's good kind of part of the of of The Matrix.

因为我喜欢烂片。

Because I love a bad movie.

我的标准很低。

I have very low standards.

我是个非常普通又糟糕的人。

I'm a very basic and bad person.

但我希望看这部电影后，能笑出声，而不是想点火烧东西或砸墙。

But but what I'd like to do is, like, watch it and come out thinking like LOL and not thinking I want to set fire to things and and punch walls.

不过，你去看过了吗？

But anyway, have you been to see it?

Unhedged at ft.com。

Unhedged at ft.com.

告诉我们它怎么样。

Tell us how it is.

如果它烂得有趣，那我就去看。

If it's so bad it's good, then I'm there.

听众们，我们周四再见。

Listeners, we will be back on Thursday.

只有上帝知道那时黄金和白银的价格会到哪里，但请留意。

God alone knows where the gold and silver price will be by then, but listen up.

《Unhedged》由杰克·哈珀制作，布莱恩·厄斯塔特剪辑。

Unhedged is produced by Jake Harper and edited by Brian Erstadt.

我们的执行制片人是雅各布·戈德斯坦。

Our exec producer is Jacob Goldstein.

我们还得到了托弗·福雷黑德斯的协助。

We had additional help from Topher Foreheads.

切丽尔·布雷利是《金融时报》全球音频负责人。

Cheryl Brumley is the Feet's global head of audio.

特别感谢劳拉·克拉克、艾利斯泰尔·麦基、格蕾塔·科恩和娜塔莉·萨德勒。

Special thanks to Laura Clark, Alistair Mackie, Greta Cohn, and Natalie Sadler.

《金融时报》高级订阅用户可免费获得《Unhedged》简报，其他人也可享受30天免费试用。

Feet Premium subscribers can get the unhedged newsletter free, and a thirty day free trial is available to everyone else.

请前往 ft.com/unhedgedoffer。

Just go to ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

我是凯蒂·马丁。

I'm Katie Martin.