美元惊人的贬值

普希金。

Pushkin.

美国股市在2026年开局表现强劲，美国国债的表现也相当平稳。

The US stock market is off to a great start to 2026, and US government bonds are also pretty well behaved.

所以世界上一切安好。

So all is well in the world.

和平与和谐主宰着一切。

Peace and harmony reign.

全球市场一切都棒极了。

Everything is awesome in global markets.

嗯，你知道的，有点儿吧。

Well, you know, kinda.

对几乎所有人的问题在于美元。

The problem here for pretty much everyone is the dollar.

今年年初几周里，美元出现了相当明显的下跌，这侵蚀了全球投资者从美国资产中获得的收益。

It's taken a decent hit in the opening weeks of this year, and that munches into the returns that investors around the world can get out of US assets.

此外，日元这边也有些奇怪的现象。

Plus, there's some weird stuff going on with the Japanese yen.

如果你感到困惑，我一点也不怪你。

If you're confused, I don't blame you.

但别担心，今天在节目中，我们将深入剖析正在发生什么以及为什么这很重要。

But fear not, for today on the show, we're going to unpack what's going on and why it matters.

这是《Unhedged》，由《金融时报》和Pushkin出品的市场与金融播客。

This is Unhedged, markets and finance podcast from the Financial Times and Pushkin.

我是凯蒂·马丁，伦敦《Feet Towers》的市场专栏作家。

I'm Katie Martin, a markets columnist at Feet Towers in London.

空气中隐隐透出一丝春意，我通过互联网连线了来自纽约的《Unhedged》通讯作者、大人物罗伯特·阿姆斯特朗。

It has a tiny, tiny hint of spring in the air, and I'm joined through the magic of the Internet by the big man, Robert Armstrong, off of the unhedged newsletter in New York City.

纽约这里可一点春意都没有。

There's not a tiny, tiny hint of spring in the air

在纽约

in New

纽约市。

York City.

纽约市里有一点点……我快被冻死的迹象。

There is a tiny tiny hint of I'm about to freeze to death in New York City.

那你还穿着雪地靴吗？

So you're still in your snow boots?

是的，我穿着。

I am indeed.

还有我的加长保暖内衣。

And my long undies.

天啊。

Please.

这是家庭节目。

It's a family show.

在开始之前，我们前几天简单聊过那部梅拉尼娅的电影。

Before we get going, we discussed briefly the Melania movie the other day.

我们确实讨论了。

We did.

而且说实话，听起来太震撼了。

And and and it sounds, I've gotta say, epic.

我前几天看到一篇评论说，即使在飞机上播放，观众也会离场。

One review that I saw the other day said, even if they showed it on a plane, people would still walk out.

哦，对啊。

Oh, right.

这简直是易如反掌。

This is shooting fish in a barrel.

好吧。

Okay.

正经事。

Serious stuff.

美元，它可不是普通的货币。

The dollar, it's not just any old currency.

对吧？

Right?

所以它的涨跌会以某种方式影响全世界，部分原因是大宗商品通常以美元计价。

So it its ups and downs affect the whole world in like, partly because commodities are often priced in dollars.

所以，举个例子，作为一个国家，你的石油成本在很大程度上不仅取决于油价涨跌，还取决于美元是升值还是贬值。

So, you know, your cost of oil, for example, as a country depends a lot on whether the dollar is going up or down in addition to whether oil is going up or down.

你作为投资者可以非常非常非常聪明，对美国股市——全球最重要、最大的股票市场——做出准确判断。

And you can be very, very, very clever as an investor, and you can be right about US stocks, biggest, most important stock market in the world.

但如果你对美元的判断错了，那你的收益就会被抵消掉。

But if you get the dollar wrong, then you get ironed out.

所以，标普500指数——美国主要的股票基准指数——前几天刚突破了7000点。

So S and P 500, the the big benchmark US stocks index, just hit 7,000 the other day.

到目前为止，今年一月它已经上涨了大约2%。

It's up about 2% just in January so far.

但如果你以欧元计价，它的涨幅几乎为0%。

But if you're based in euros, it's up more or less 0%.

而如果你以英镑计价，由于美元的影响，跌幅约为百分之零点五。

And if you're based in sterling, it's down half a percent because of the dollar.

所以我想，这个故事的寓意是，即使你认为自己不需要关注汇率，但恐怕你还是得关注。

So I guess the moral of the story is even if you think you don't need to think about currencies, I'm afraid you do.

那么，阿姆斯特朗先生，这里到底发生了什么？

So what's going on here, mister Armstrong?

美国与世界其他地区之间存在信任问题。

There is a trust issue between The United States and the rest of the world.

我认为这是根本问题。

I think is the basic problem.

确实如此。

That's the case.

我们经历了一段相当动荡的一周。

We we had a kind of a wild week.

我的意思是，美元的走势图简直令人惊叹。

I mean, the chart of the dollar is a thing to behold.

当然，在广播里谈论图表简直是个笑话。

And it's of course, it's a joke to talk about charts on the radio.

我不画图，但基本上，过去一周美元的下跌，过去几年里唯一能与之相比的，就是四月份解放日时的恐慌。

I won't but, like, basically, the decline in the dollar we've seen in the last week, the only thing that compares to it in the last couple of years is the Liberation Day freak out back in April.

对吧？

Right?

所以看起来，我们经历了一次类似的信任崩溃，针对的是美国。

So it looks like we had, you know, a similar kind of collapse in trust in The United States.

我认为从以下角度来看，这很容易理解。

And I I think that's easy to understand in the following sense.

就在威胁要入侵一个北约国家之后，特朗普就表示他不在乎美元，甚至认为美元疲软也没关系。

Just on the heels of sort of threatening to invade a NATO country, we we had Trump talking about how he doesn't care about the dollar, and indeed, he's fine with a weak dollar.

美国政府曾暗示可能干预美元兑日元市场，随后美国财政部长又说，其实我们坚持强势美元政策。

We had the United States government signal that it might intervene in the dollar yen market and then we had the treasury secretary of The United States say that actually we had a strong dollar policy.

因此，你可以理解世界各地持有大量美国资产的人为何会觉得这里局势动荡，从而选择购买一些对冲美元波动的保护措施。

So you can sympathize with people around the world who own a lot of US assets from thinking things were a little jumpy over here, and we better buy some protection against dollar volatility.

我能补充一下那个小清单吗？比如格陵兰之类的？

Can I add to that little list of, like, Greenland and all the rest of it?

显然，关于谁将接任美联储主席这个长期的噩梦，也就是新的央行行长是否会完全按照唐纳德·特朗普的意愿行事？

Obviously, the long running hellscape that is who's going to be the next chair of the Federal Reserve, you know, is the new central bank chief going to do exactly what Donald Trump wants?

这些都没有帮助。

None of that helps.

是的。

Yeah.

但我觉得，有必要在这里做几项小小的评估。

But so it's useful, I think, to do a few little scores on the doors here.

正如你所说，去年解放日前后美元遭受了重大打击，但那之后在下半年逐渐平息了。

So as you say, there was a big hit to the dollar last year around Liberation Day, but that kind of petered out in the second half of the year.

但我们在2026年迄今看到的情况是，美元指数下跌了超过2%。

But what we've seen so far in 2026, so the dollar index is down by a little over 2%.

这衡量的是美元相对于其他多种主要货币的表现。

So that measures the dollar against a whole bunch of other major currencies.

是的。

Yes.

这意味着，例如，英镑本月迄今已上涨了2.5%，这又是对那些声称我们不得不求助国际货币基金组织的家伙们的一记耳光。

That means you've got Sterling, for example, is up two and a half percent so far this month, which is yet another poke in the eye for all those Muppets saying we were going to have to go to the IMF.

这是自2021年以来英镑最强劲的表现。

It's the strongest for sterling since, I think, 2021.

欧元也上涨了约2.5%。

Euro is up also about two and a half percent.

瑞士法郎是人们在情况恶化时喜欢持有的货币之一，但现在简直疯了。

The Swiss franc, which is one of the currencies that people like when bad stuff happens, that has gone absolutely banana.

自2011年以来，它已经升值了约4%。

That's up about 4% stronger since about 2011.

这很糟糕。

This is bad.

让我们为可怜的瑞士人干一杯白兰地吧。

Let's pour let's pour out a schnapps schnapps for the poor Swiss here.

哦。

Oh.

只是因为他们埋头做事，是个小国，拥有稳定的货币，结果他们的货币却遭到大量抢购，而这种货币的供应量其实并不多。

Just because they kind of mind their own business and they're a small country and they have this stable currency, they get these massive bids for their currency, which there isn't that much of.

不。

No.

这在一定程度上扭曲了他们的经济。

Which kind of unbalances their economy.

是的。

Yeah.

这对他们来说是一种非常困难的处境。

And it's a very, difficult situation for them.

瑞士现在面临一种困境，为了应对这种强劲的货币汇率，这确实很糟糕，因为——

The Swiss are now in a situation where to deal with this currency strength, which is really bad because, like,

当你的货币太强时，你就卖不出去你的产品

you can't sell your stuff when your currency

真的非常昂贵。

is really expensive.

而且如果

And if

你们靠制造手表、巧克力和布谷鸟钟来维持——虽然这有点老生常谈——那确实是个问题。

you make watches and chocolate and cuckoo clocks to fall back on some tiresome cliches, that's a problem.

对吧？

Right?

是的。

Yeah.

这让瑞士陷入了一种可能面临通缩的境地，即通胀率下降，甚至价格普遍下跌。

Puts Switzerland in a situation where it could end up with disinflation, where inflation is coming down, or even with deflation, where prices are coming down.

这是一件非常糟糕的事情。

This is a very bad thing.

因此，可怜的瑞士人现在面临一种困境：为了缓解对瑞士法郎的过度需求，他们可能不得不再次实施负利率——但他们并不愿意这么做；或者他们可能不得不干预市场，买入美元，而这会惹恼美国人。

So the poor old Swiss are now in a situation where to try and deflect some of this demand for the Swiss franc, they might have to either implement negative interest rates again, which they are not keen on, or they might have to intervene and buy dollars, which would piss the Americans off.

嗯嗯。

Mhmm.

如果他们不谨慎，美国人可能会对他们征收巨额贸易关税。

And if they're not careful, then the Americans could slap massive trade tariffs back on them.

所以可怜的瑞士国家银行陷入了困境。

So the poor old Swiss National Bank is in a bind.

嗯嗯。

Mhmm.

你刚才提到了日元。

Now you mentioned the Japanese yen a minute ago.

那是一个稍微不同的故事。

That's a slightly different story.

所以听众们，先记下这一点。

So listeners, stick a little pin in this one.

我们稍后会再回到这个话题。

We we're gonna come back to that particular subject in a little bit.

但正如你所说，问题在于这是一个信任问题。

But as you say, the issue is it's it's a trust issue.

有太多理由让我担心明年美元会发生什么，而这种担忧会自我实现，因为当投资者采取对冲措施时，他们会保护自己免受美元下跌的影响。

There's just so many reasons to think I'm a bit worried about what's gonna happen to the dollar in the year ahead, and then that becomes quite self fulfilling because when investors take out hedges, they protect themselves against falls in the dollar.

你这样做的方式是现在卖出美元，是的。

Kind of the way you do that is sell the dollar now and Yes.

不要纠结于细节，直接在远期市场卖出。

Sell it forward without going into the niceties.

你在远期市场上卖出美元。

You sell it in the forward market.

由于一些在这里重复起来太乏味的原因，这会压低美元的价值。

And and and for reasons that are too tiresome to rehearse here, that pushes the value of the dollar down.

是的。

Yeah.

所以，没错，你会陷入一个恶性循环：疲软引发对冲，对冲加剧疲软，更弱的走势带来更多的对冲，然后就这样持续下去。

And so, yeah, you get this vicious cycle where weakness causes hedging, hedging causes weakness, weak more weakness causes more hedging, and off you go.

你知道我们这里有什么吗？

Do you know what we have here?

前几天有一篇关于Feet Alphaville读者的精彩评论。

So there's a very nice note the other day, on Feet Alphaville readers.

这是免费的。

It's free.

你需要注册，但它是免费的。

You have to register, but it's free.

他们说，我们这里的情况就像是白蚁正在缓慢地啃噬美元主导地位的根基。

And they said what we have here are termites slowly feasting away at the foundations of the dollar's dominance.

凯蒂，我能澄清一下吗？

Can I just make a clarification here, Katie?

我认为重要的是要注意，据我们所知，全球投资者并没有远离美国资产。

I think it's important to note that what is not happening as far as we can tell is global investors turning away from US assets.

人们仍然喜欢国债。

People still like treasuries.

人们仍然喜欢股票。

People still like stocks.

他们只是不希望因经济政策的不稳定而承受货币波动，因此愿意花钱来对冲这种波动。

They just don't want the currency volatility associated with erratic economic policy making, and so they are paying to make that volatility go away.

但同时，你仍然可以喜欢你的国债，也可以喜欢你的股票，只是随着时间推移，你可以更多地购买其他资产。

But also, they you can still like your treasuries, and you can still like your stocks, but just over time, you can buy more of other stuff.

所以你不必抛售美国资产。

So you don't have to sell your US assets.

你可以全部抛售，你就是那种唱衰的人。

You can sell all You're one of the haters.

你是那种反美的人。

You're one of the American haters.

嗯，嗯，嗯。

Well, well, well.

我不是，我只是不想听

I'm not I'm just not listening to

你的宣传，凯蒂。

your propaganda, Katie.

我不是。

I'm not.

我没在听。

I'm not listening.

好吧，这是给你的一些其他宣传，阿姆斯特朗先生。

Well, here's some other propaganda for you, mister Armstrong.

白蚁。

Termites.

是的。

Yes.

来自阿尔法维尔的备注，作者是斯蒂芬·卡门，他曾任美联储国际金融主管，绝非等闲之辈，以及马克·索贝尔，他曾任美国财政部国际金融主管。

So note on Alphaville from Stephen Kamen, who was previously head of international finance at Federal Reserve, no slouch, and Mark Sobel, who was previously head of international finance at the US Treasury.

聪明人。

Smart people.

他们表示，几年前，人们还很难想象一个没有美元主导地位的世界，但现在你可以很容易地预见在未来几十年内出现这样的格局。

They are saying that whereas a few years ago, one would have been hard pressed to foresee a world without dollar dominance, now you can readily imagine such a disorder emerging in the coming decades.

所以请记住这些时间框架。

So bear the time frames in mind.

但他们列出的这些‘白蚁’包括：美国没有对世界其他地区表现出友好的态度。

But their list of termites here include The US is not being a nice friend to the rest of the world.

对吧？

Right?

它不是一个值得信赖的坏朋友。

It's not a trusted Bad friend.

合作伙伴在

Partner in

这个世界。

the world.

坏朋友。

Bad friend.

坏朋友。

Bad friend.

糟糕。

Bad.

糟糕。

Bad.

美国宏观政策的稳健性受到了质疑。

The soundness of US macro policy has come into question.

我觉得这一点很难反驳。

I think that's hard to argue with.

不。

No.

它已经被提出来了。

It's come into statement.

情况很糟。

It's bad.

你有预算赤字和巨额债务负担，这些你可以选择在某个时候担心。

You got budget deficits and massive debt burdens, which, you know, you can choose to worry about at some point.

机构正在被削弱，还有，法治正在被弱化，还有。

Institutions are being degraded, tick, and the rule of law is being weakened, tick.

这些都是长期不看好美元的原因。

These are all reasons long term not to like the dollar.

不看好美元。

Not to like the dollar.

这正是我想表达的观点。

That that that's really my point.

确实如此。

That there's Sure.

说‘是的’是一回事。

There it's one thing to say yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

说我想做这样一个重要的澄清，是一回事。

It's one thing to say that I I just think this is an important clarification.

说在计价、借款或交易时，存在一些替代货币，这是一回事。

It's one thing to say there are kind of alternatives here and there as a currency to invoice in or a currency to borrow in or a currency, you know, whatever to transact into the dollar.

但这改变不了一个硬事实，即美国是不可或缺的经济体，美国的国债市场是不可或缺的避险资产市场，而美国股票是全球质量最高的权益资产。

That doesn't change the hard fact that America is the indispensable economy and America's treasury bond market is the indispensable safe asset, market and American stocks are the highest quality equity assets in the world.

所以我们需要明白，这两者是完全不同的事情。

And so we just need you know, those two those two are separate things.

但那是

But that's

都是

all are

不同的事情。

separate things.

但它们确实是不同的事情。

But they they are separate things.

但归根结底，结果其实差不多，因为正如我所说，如果你不采取行动，不进行对冲，作为美国以外的投资者，如果你不进行其他方面的布局，那么如果我们继续这样下去——当然这还是个大前提——美元可能会反转，到年底时，你账面上可能看起来从美国股市获得了惊人的回报，但实际上却一无所获，因为美元的走势会把你的一切都抹平。

But at the end of the day, it's kind of the same result because like I say, if you don't take action, if you don't hedge, if you as an investor that's outside The US, if you don't hedge, if you don't bulk up elsewhere, then if we carry on like this, still a big if, the dollar could turn around, you're gonna end up at the end of the year with, on paper, fantastic returns out of The US stock market, but basically getting nothing out of it because the dollar will just wipe you out.

所以这尤其在

So it's a really Especially in

固定收益领域。

fixed income.

尤其是在固定收益领域，回报

Especially in fixed income where the returns

通常

are usually

会相对较低。

tend to be a little bit lower.

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

在债券中，这是个问题。

In bonds, it's a problem.

在股票中，这也是个问题。

In stocks, it's a problem.

在所有方面，这都是个问题。

In in everything, it it's a problem.

是的。

Yes.

你知道，有句非常著名的老话，我知道这很陈词滥调，但我还是要提一下。

You know, there's that sort of very famous old adage, and I know it's a cliche, but I'm gonna raise it.

无论如何，1971年美国财政部长约翰·康纳利说过一句著名的话：美元是我们的货币，但却是你们的问题。

Anyway, the famous 1971 quote from US treasury secretary John Connolly who said, the dollar is our currency, but it's your problem.

我出生于1971年。

It's I was born in 1971.

你知道吗？

You know that?

这是一瓶好年份的酒。

It's a fine vintage.

嗯。

Mhmm.

好年头。

Good year.

但确实如此。

But yeah.

所以，这就是关键所在。

So the this that's the thing.

它把问题扩散到了全球其他地区。

It fans problems out around around the rest of the world.

现在，对我来说，美元之所以走弱，其中一个主要原因就是与美联储相关的这些事情。

Now, one of the things here that is, for me, one of the major reasons why the dollar is is in decline is around this stuff to do with the Federal Reserve.

对吧？

Right?

这与央行有关。

It's to do with the Central Bank.

他们正在寻找替代人选。

They're trying to find a replacement.

特朗普政府正在寻找杰伊·鲍威尔的继任者，因为他在五月卸任。

The Trump administration is trying to find a replacement for Jay Powell because he steps aside in May.

我知道我们以前在节目中多次讨论过这个话题。

I know we've talked about this on on the show multiple times before.

但最终，他们想找一个兼具聪明才智、专业能力并获得市场信任的人，同时又愿意向唐纳德·特朗普低头，听从他的任何指令。

But ultimately, what they're trying to do is find someone who is a combination of clever, knows what they're doing, and has got the trust of the market, but simultaneously is willing to bend the knee to Donald Trump and kind of do whatever he wants.

他真的希望降低利率。

And he really wants lower interest rates.

是的。

Yeah.

他对此非常执着

He's, like, very fixed on

这个。

this.

他为了罢免一位美联储理事，炮制了一起诉讼（双关语），并且

To the extent that he has trumped up, pun intended, a lawsuit to get rid of a Fed governor, and has

传唤了与他毫无关系的人，是的。

subpoenaed nothing to do with him, but yeah.

不。

No.

而且他传唤了，是的。

And he's subpoenaed yeah.

他说这和他毫无关系。

He says nothing to with him.

说得对。

Fair enough.

这是他的司法部。

It's his justice department.

他传唤了美联储及其主席杰伊·鲍威尔，指控他们在美联储总部耗资巨大的翻新工程中存在刑事不当行为。

And he's subpoenaed the Federal Reserve and its chair Jay Powell for criminal misconduct around the renovation the very expensive renovation of the Fed's headquarters.

这是一种大规模的霸凌行为，全世界都不喜欢这样。

So this is bullying on a major scale, and the world don't like it.

我认为我们之前讨论的其他事情虽然更及时，但这件事一直在背后持续发酵，构成了整个讨论的背景。

I think all the other stuff we've talked about is more kind of timely, but that is just burning in the background, and it's the context for this whole discussion.

它正在暗中燃烧。

It is smoldering.

罗布·阿姆斯特朗，我有个问题想问你。

Here's my question for you, Rob Armstrong.

我们每隔五分钟就被告知，特朗普即将提名下一任美联储主席人选。

We keep being told every five minutes that we are just around the corner from getting the nomination from Trump for who's gonna be the next Fed chair.

提名到底在哪里？你们的人呢？

Where is the nomination, you guys?

凯蒂，我得跟你们透露一点新消息。

Katie, I'm I'm I'm gonna break a little news here.

我与白宫之间的谈判在条款上拖延已久。

Negotiations between myself and the White House have been dragging on over terms.

是的。

Yes.

但我们正在接近达成一致。

But we're getting closer.

所以，是的。

So Yes.

还记得我说过他们必须知道自己在做什么的那段话吗？

Remember the bit where I said they had to know what they were doing?

对。

Yeah.

不。

No.

这需要时间。

It's it's taking time.

我的意思是，白宫手头的事情相当多。

I mean, the White House has rather a lot on its plate.

我们最近写过关于里克·里德的事，他是黑石集团固定收益部门的负责人。

We recently wrote about Rick Reeder, who is the head of fixed income at Mighty BlackRock.

是的。

Yeah.

所以对你我来说，那就是债券。

So that's bonds to you and me.

是的。

Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

他可能管理着我认为是全球最大的私人债券投资组合，尽管我可能在这方面错了。

He probably manages I think he manages the biggest private bond portfolio in the world, although I might be wrong about that.

这是真正的大玩家之一。

It's one of the really biggies.

而且他非常鸽派。

And he's very dovish.

他长期以来一直支持降低利率。

He's long been in favor of lower interest rates.

他与总统举行了一次会议。

He had a meeting with the president.

总统赞扬了他。

The president praised him.

所以他正在候选之列。

So he's in the running.

现在根据博彩市场的预测，他不仅在候选之列，而且处于领先位置。

And now according to the betting markets, he's not only in the running, he's in the lead.

所以你有这些凯文。

So you've got you've got the Kevins.

有几个凯文在其中。

There's a few Kevins in the mix.

是的。

Yes.

在考虑之中。

In the mix.

凯文们是那种类型的人，比如凯文·沃什，他是传统选择，也是任职时间最长的美联储官员。

The Kevins are the kind of, Kevin Warsh being the traditional choice, the kind of longest standing Fed official.

对吧？

Right?

是的。

Yeah.

然后你有凯文·哈塞特，他被认为——我该怎么优雅地表达呢——在个人立场上更贴近总统。

Then you have Kevin Hassett, who is considered, how do I put this elegantly, more closely aligned personally with the president.

说得很好。

Nicely done.

还有谁在竞争中？

Who else is in the game?

我们有没有漏掉什么重要的人选？

Have I have we missed any big ones?

有时候人们会提到财政部长斯科特·贝森。

Every now and then, people talk about the treasury secretary, Scott Besson

是的。

Yes.

就这个职位而言。

In relation to this job.

让财政部长竞选美联储职位，有点像巫术，对吧？

That's kind of like voodoo, right, to have your treasury secretary in the running for the Fed job.

不过，我想珍妮特·耶伦确实先后担任过这两个职位，

Although, I guess Janet Yellen did do sort of one after the other,

但确实如此。

but Yeah.

我认为这也不是没听说过的事。

I don't think it's unheard of.

是的。

Yeah.

这有点像迪克·切尼的做法，他当时是负责寻找副总统的委员会主席。

And it's kind of a Dick Cheney thing where like he was the head of the committee to find a vice president.

到末了，他说：是的。

And at the end of it, he's like Yeah.

瞧我找到了谁。

Look who I found.

就是我。

It's me.

最适合这份工作的人就是我。

Ta The best person for the job is me.

是的。

Yeah.

所以我觉得这可能是市场的一种情况，我知道你大概觉得他胜算挺大的。

So I think that that that is one the the market maybe I I know you're you you kinda like the odds on him.

你说呢，凯蒂？

Don't you, Katie?

我不会排除这种可能性。

I wouldn't rule it out.

我只是觉得这件事现在拖得太久了。

I just think this whole thing is now taking so long.

像我们至少在过去两三个月里一再被告知，提名人选随时都会公布。

Like, we've been told repeatedly for at least the past two or three months that we're gonna know who the nomination is any day now.

但这件事拖拖拉拉，让我觉得这里头有些奇怪的地方。

And the fact it's dragging on just makes me think, there's a number of weird things going on here.

说得有道理。

Fair enough.

我认为，如果能对这件事有更清晰的了解，可能会对美元有帮助。

I think it would help possibly help the dollar actually if we get a little bit of clarity around this.

而且我认为，如果不是佩尔或哈塞特，美元也会受益。

And I think if it wasn't percent or Hassett, I think that would help the dollar too.

是的

Yeah.

是的

Yeah.

我认为如果是里德，美元一开始会受益，但市场很快就会了解到他多年来关于利率的那些言论。

I think if it was Reeder, it would help the dollar at first until the market found out the things he's been saying about interest rates for years.

是的

Yeah.

是的

Yeah.

我我是，但我正在把你从我的名单上划掉

I I'm but I'm I'm I'm crossing you off of my

好的

Okay.

我不在名单上。

I'm not on the list.

说得通。

Fair enough.

好的。

Okay.

不会是你。

It's not gonna be you.

那么，这就是所有关于美元的大局观了。

Now so that's all the kind of big picture dollar stuff.

对吧？

Right?

美元在很大程度上普遍疲软。

The dollar is weak pretty much across the board.

我告诉你美元不弱的地方在哪里，那就是亚洲。

I'll tell you where the dollar is not weak, and that is in Asia.

嗯。

Mhmm.

因此，美元对日元非常强势，而日元则非常非常疲软。

So the dollar is very strong against the Japanese yen, for example, which is very, very weak.

上周晚些时候，日元市场出现了一些非常奇怪的情况。

Now, some very weird stuff went down at the back end of last week in relation to the yen.

这属于那种典型的、你知道的，货币市场里的技术性内容，让我特别着迷，因为我以前是个狂热的货币市场爱好者。

And this is like this is the sort of, you know, nerdy currency market stuff that nourishes me because I used to be a big currencies market nerd.

当日本央行代表日本财务省对日元汇率感到不满时，通常是因为日元太强，但目前是因为日元实在太弱，他们会采取一系列步骤试图引导市场朝他们期望的方向发展。

So when the Bank of Japan, on behalf of the Ministry of Finance in Japan, gets upset with where the yen is, typically because it's too strong, but currently because the yen is really, really weak, They go through a number of stages of trying to get them bend the market round to their direction.

首先，他们通常会频繁发表公开声明，比如提醒大家关注日元走势。

First of all, they tend to make lots of public statements around, you know, look at the yen.

这不就是一种常见做法吗？

That's a thing, isn't it?

我们不喜欢这种波动性，这是一种比较温和的提醒，类似‘喂，兄弟们，别闹了’。

We don't like the volatility, and that's a kind of low key kind of lads, lads, lads, knock it off.

如果这招不管用，他们就会升级手段，进行所谓的‘利率核查’，即日本央行会给所有主要的日元交易银行打电话，说：‘哦，没什么特别原因。’

And then if that doesn't work, what they tend to do is up the ante, and they do something called a rate check, where some where all the big kind of currency trading banks in in the yen get a little phone call from the Bank of Japan saying, oh, no reason.

只是想知道你现在的美元兑日元汇率是多少。

Just just wondering what your rate is on on doll dollar yen.

只是好奇一下。

Just wondering

如果我想操纵日元市场，得花多少钱？

what cost me if I wanted to manipulate the yen market?

那得花我多少成本？

What would that run me?

是的。

Yeah.

如果我想卖出或买入大量美元兑日元，你的报价是多少？

What what would your price be if I wanted to sell a load of dollar yen or buy a load of dollar yen?

没什么原因。

No reason.

只是随便问问。

Just asking.

这其实就是一种暗语，意思是‘哦，好吧’。

And that is kind of code for, oh, okay.

他们在这里是认真的。

They're serious here.

他们正在朝着可能直接干预市场的方向迈进，通过买入或卖出美元来影响日元汇率。

They're moving towards the point where they might directly intervene in the market and either buy or sell dollars to move the yen around.

我认为，当财政部或央行这样做时，他们会直接对交易对手说：别忘了告诉你的朋友们，我打过电话了。

And I think when a treasury department or a central bank does that, they literally say to the dealers they're talking to, and don't forget to tell your friends that I called.

是的。

Yes.

对吧？

Right?

所以，询价实际上是整个这一系列操作中非常关键的一环。

So so rate checks are, like, a really important bit of this whole choreography.

但关键是，最近一次在Dolly N发生的询价，并不是来自日本央行代表财务省的行动。

But here's the thing, the latest rate check that happened on Dolly N did not come from the Bank of Japan on the behalf of the Ministry of Finance.

它来自纽约联邦储备银行，代表美国财政部。

It came from the New York Fed on behalf of the US Treasury.

是的。

Mhmm.

这到底是在搞什么鬼？

Like, what the hell is going on there?

为什么美国当局会以这种方式介入日元管理的关键环节？

Why are The US authorities involved in this way in, like, key yen management?

这非常非常奇怪。

This is very, very strange.

好的。

Okay.

我给你一个更正和两个推测。

One correction and two theories for you there.

更正一下，这并不是低调进行的。

The correction is this was not low key.

当对的时候。

When when the Right.

美国大约每十五年会这样做一次，你知道的，对汇率市场进行一次干预。

The US does this about once every fifteen years in, you know, does a check -in some rate market.

所以这是一个极其罕见的事件，非常不寻常，就像热门新闻一样。

So there's extremely rare event and unusual and is like hot news.

通常情况下单独发生。

All by itself normally.

是的。

Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

没有角色参与

No role for

美国。

The US.