下一任美联储主席

在过去三十年里，我一直在努力全面理解金钱，无论是在董事会、新闻编辑室，还是交易大厅。

I've spent the last three decades trying to better understand money across the boardroom, the newsroom, and the trading floor.

这段时长比大多数播客主持人活过的年头还要长。

That's longer than most podcast hosts have been alive.

但即便如此，我依然有很多疑问。

But even I've got questions.

每周请和我一起收听梅伦·萨姆塞特·韦布的节目《梅伦谈钱》，来自彭博播客，我将与基金经理、策略师和专家深入探讨市场的真实运作方式。

Join me, Maren Sumset Webb, every week for my show Maren Talks Money from Bloomberg Podcasts, where I have in-depth conversations with fund managers, strategists, and experts about how markets really work.

同时，也请收听另一期节目，我会回答听众关于如何让市场为你所用的问题。

And join me for a separate episode where I answer listener questions on how to make those markets work for you.

请在 Apple 播客、Spotify 或你收听播客的任何平台关注《梅伦谈钱》。

Follow Maren Talks Money on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you listen.

今年春天你期待拿到奖金吗？

Are you expecting a bonus this spring?

你在英国工作吗？

Do you work in The UK?

如果有的话，请填写 Feet 的匿名奖金调查。

If you do, take the Feet's anonymous bonus survey.

初步数据显示，我们的许多英国听众今年都期待着丰厚的奖金。

Early indications show a lot of our British listeners are expecting big payouts this year.

那你呢？

But how about you?

前往 ft.com/bonus 或点击节目笔记中的链接。

Go to ft.com/bonus or click the link in the show notes.

Pushkin。

Pushkin.

你知道吗？

You know what?

有得有失。

You win some, you lose some.

前几天，在这个播客中，我们提出了一种观点，认为市场对黄金和白银的狂热追捧是一场注定失败的投机热潮。

The other day, on this very podcast, we laid out an argument that the super sore away clamour for gold and silver was a speculative frenzy doomed to failure.

好吧，滴答一声。

Well, tick.

我们在这里经历了一次现实的冲击。

We've had a big reality check there.

但在这之后，我们一度认为美国财政部长斯科特·贝桑特可能会成为下一任央行行长。

But then after that, we kind of said we thought maybe Scott Bessant, The US Treasury Secretary, would be the next chair of the country's central bank.

错了。

Wrong.

我们刚说完，凯文·沃尔什就获得了提名。

Straight after we said that, Kevin Walsh got the nomination.

但话说回来，两回猜中一回也不算差，我觉得听众们并不要求完美。

But hey, look, one out of two ain't bad, and I don't think listeners are looking for perfection.

对吧？

Right?

如果你真有意见，就发邮件来投诉吧。

Email to complain if you are.

robert.dot.armstrongft.dot.com

Robert dot armstrongft dot com.

总之，今天节目中我们聊聊总统中意的凯文。

Anyway, today on the show, a little bit on the president's Kevin of choice.

欢迎收听《Unhedged》，这是来自《金融时报》和Pushkin的市场与金融播客。

This is Unhedged, the markets and finance podcast from the Financial Times and Pushkin.

我是凯蒂·马丁，伦敦《金融时报》的市场专栏作家，终于熬过了枯燥乏味、昏昏欲睡的一月戒酒期。

I'm Katie Martin, a markets columnist at Feet Towers in London, finally done with boring snoring dry January.

我通过网络连线了来自纽约的《Unhedged》通讯的高级执行副总裁罗伯特·阿姆斯特朗，遗憾的是，他似乎很早就被排除在美联储主席人选之外了。

And I'm joined through the magic of the internet by Robert Armstrong, senior executive vice president of the unhedged newsletter in New York City, and regrettably seemingly ruled out early from the job of Chair of the Federal Reserve.

罗布，我想我们现在知道你为什么被排除在外了。

Rob, I think we now know why you were ruled out.

因为根据唐纳德·特朗普的说法，凯文·沃尔什是‘标准模板’。

Because Kevin Walsh, according to Donald Trump, is, and I quote, central casting.

事实上，我们的同事克里斯·吉尔斯表示，沃尔什在特朗普第一任期内就曾被排除在人选之外，因为那时他太年轻、太英俊了。

Indeed, our colleague Chris Giles says that Walsh was passed over for the job in Trump's first presidency because back then, he was too young and too good looking.

所以我觉得这解释了原因。

So I think this explains it.

对吧？

Right?

凯蒂，每个人都有自己的难处，而我的难处就是我这令人惊叹的帅气外表。

Katie, we all have our crosses to bear, and mine is mine is devastating good looks.

但你也知道，我们以前在节目中聊过这个。

But you but also, I know we've spoken about this on the show before.

特朗普喜欢头发很好的人。

Trump likes people with great hair.

是的。

Yeah.

那不是我的强项，我承认。

That's not my that's not my strength, I'll admit.

那确实不是你的强项，但凯文·沃尔什确实有一头符合中央 casting 标准的头发。

That is not your strength, but Kevin Walsh does have central casting hair.

真是难以置信的头发。

So Unbelievable hair.

浓密、丰盈、有光泽的头发。

Rich, full, lustrous hair.

是的。

Yes.

我还想指出，据称在2017年，特朗普之所以没有连任珍妮特·耶伦，是因为她太矮了。

I'd also point out that, apparently, in 2017, reportedly Trump did not reappoint Janet Yellen for the role because she was too short.

而你知道，我身高只有五英尺二英寸。

And I, as you know, am all of five foot two.

所以总的来说，我和你都被排除在美联储主席人选之外了。

So I think all in all, this is me and you both ruled out for FEDJA.

所以凯文·沃尔什。

So Kevin Walsh.

是的。

Yes.

人们原本以为会是其中一位凯文，而这位就是被选中的凯文。

It was going to be one of the Kevins, people thought, and this is the Kevin of choice.

市场对他还挺喜欢的。

Markets kinda like him.

我们是怎么知道的？为什么？

How do we know that and why?

我们知道是因为，在宣布消息后，短期利率和美元都没有走弱，而如果人选是另一位凯文——凯文·哈塞特，我们或许会预期出现某种疲软，暗示美联储完全受总统摆布，愿意随意降息和放松货币政策。

Well, we know it because neither short term interest rates nor the dollar weakened on the announcement, which if it had been the other Kevin, Kevin Hassett, we might have anticipated some weakness suggesting a Fed that is fully in the thrall of the president and willing to cut rates and loosen monetary policy willy nilly.

是的。

Yeah.

当我们得知将是凯文·沃尔什时，股市、债市和汇率并没有出现一片欢呼的景象。

And So we got the news that it was gonna be Kevin Walsh, and it's not like stocks and bonds and the currency were all like, hooray.

资产价格也没有出现大幅飙升，市场也没有像在欢呼雀跃。

And there was this, like, massive jump in asset prices, and the markets were, like, cheering.

人们并没有把彩带从窗户扔出去，也没有开派对说‘太棒了’。

People were throwing streamers out to their windows and having parties and saying, hooray.

是凯文·沃尔什。

It's Kevin Walsh.

但并没有发生什么坏事。

It's But nothing bad happened.

什么坏事都没发生。

Nothing bad happened.

而如今，这已经是一种胜利了。

And that is, these days, a win.

是的。

Yeah.

我认为没错。

I would say that's right.

至于沃尔什先生，有趣的是，你可以从他身上看到你希望看到的东西，因为他对货币政策持有两种表面上看似相反的观点。

And, of course, the interesting thing about mister Walsh is you can see in him what you want to see because he holds two views about monetary policy that on the surface, at least, point in opposite directions.

在过去一两年里，他一直公开表示联邦基金利率可以更低。

He has been vocal in the last year or two that interest rates, the federal funds rate can be lower.

现在关于他这么说是否只是在为这个职位面试，存在着一场广泛的争论。

Now there's a whole debate about whether he's just auditioning for the job when he says that.

他是个虚伪和假扮的人吗？

Is he a hypocrite and a fake?

我们可以讨论所有这些。

And we can talk about all that.

但这是他最近坚定支持的一种观点。

But that's one view that recently he's firmly espoused.

他几十年来一直主张的另一种观点是，美联储的资产负债表由于量化宽松或购债而规模庞大，应该缩小。

His other view that he's been espousing for decades is that the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, which is big because of quantitative easing or bond buying, should shrink.

这是一种紧缩货币的观点。

And that's a tight money view.

所以这个人既有宽松货币的观点，也有紧缩货币的观点。

So this guy both has a loose money view and a tight money view.

所以你可以

So you can

他确实如此。

He does.

对他完全是一种罗夏墨迹测验，你可以从中看到任何你想看到的形象。

Totally Rorschach on him and see whatever image you want to in a certain way.

是的。

Yeah.

所以就是这样。

So there's that.

对吧？

Right?

他同时会呼吁一些相互矛盾的主张。

He kind of calls sort of for opposite things at the same time.

但有很多人批评凯文·沃尔什，这里我引用《纽约时报》凯瑟琳·兰佩尔的话，她说，随着时间推移，沃尔什似乎更倾向于在民主党人入主白宫时给经济踩刹车，而不是在共和党人执政时。

But there is a large body of criticism of Kevin Walsh saying, and here, I'm looking at the words in the New York Times from Catherine Rampell, who says that over time, Walsh has seemed more interested in slamming the brakes on the economy when a Democrat is in the White House than when a Republican is.

因此，外界确实存在一种担忧，认为沃尔什有点政治投机，他更热衷于在民主党人执政时提高利率，而如今执政者似乎更符合他的政治立场，他就乐意让经济稍微过热一点。

So there is a concern out there that Walsh is a bit of a political beast, that he is keener on raising interest rates when there's a Democrat in the White House, and now that it's someone who appears to be more closely aligned with his broader political views, is happy to run the taps a little bit hot.

我想，根据你最近几天在通讯中写的内容，你对这件事的重要性略有不同看法。

I guess, from what you've been writing in your newsletter over the past few days, you kind of disagree slightly on how important that is.

对吧？

Right?

我的看法比较悲观，认为所有人都是虚伪的，他们只会对当下所处环境中的激励做出反应。

I mean, I have the dark view that all people are hypocrites and that they respond to the incentives that they are exposed to in a given moment.

让我这么说吧。

And so let me put it this way.

这个人的生活即将发生巨大变化。

This guy's life is about to change in a huge way.

我把他比作追上汽车的狗。

I describe him as the dog who caught the car.

他以前是美联储董事会的成员。

He used to be on the Fed board.

是的。

Yep.

金融危机期间的背景。

The back during the financial crisis.

你知道，我认为他是在2011年辞职的。

You know, I think he resigned in 2011.

即使那时，他也算是内部的异议者。

And even then, he was kind of in an internal dissident.

他坐在那里说：天啊。

He was sitting there saying, woah.

天啊。

Woah.

天啊。

Woah.

天啊。

Woah.

我们得放慢点QE的步伐。

Let's slow down with this QE stuff.

我们别这样，再说，奥巴马当时是总统。

Let's not, and, again, Obama was president.

我们别在政策上这么疯狂了。

Let's not let's not go so crazy with policy here.

这会带来通货膨胀的影响。

There's gonna be inflationary implications.

所以他当时是个持不同意见者，而且属于极少数派，他就在一旁说，你们可能把事情搞砸了。

So he was a dissident and very much in the minority, and he was, like, standing by the sidelines saying, well, maybe you guys are screwing it up.

自从他离开美联储后，这十五年来他基本上一直是个专业的美联储批评者。

And since he left the Fed, he's basically been a professional Fed critic for fifteen years.

你们，你们的做法是错的。

Like, you guys you guys are doing it wrong.

这才是你们应该做的方式。

Here's the way you should be doing it.

不。

No.

不。

No.

不。

No.

如果他获得参议院批准，他就必须离开 sidelines，真正参与进来。

Well, if he gets approved by the senate, he's gonna have to get off the sidelines and get in the game.

他将面临巨大的问责，所承受的激励和压力也将与过去二十年截然不同。

He's gonna be accountable in a huge way, and he's gonna be under a very, very different set of incentives and under very, very different pressures than he's been for the last two decades.

所以，无论发生什么，我们都会迎来一个全新的、前所未见的人。

So whatever happens, we're gonna get a new person, a person we haven't seen before.

是的。

Yeah.

所以，用你前几天在通讯中的话来说，十五年来，沃尔什一直能以外部人的身份批评美联储，而无需承担任何风险。

So to to quote your words back at you from your newsletter the other day, for fifteen years, Walsh has been able to criticize the from the outside with nothing at stake.

现在，他必须把自己的钱和我们的钱都押上桌。

Now he has to put his money and ours on the table.

这是个好观点。

That's a good point.

对吧？

Right?

当人们真正掌权时，他们的行为确实往往会和只是在旁观、说‘我不会那样做’的时候有所不同。

And people do tend to act somewhat differently when they're actually in charge than when they're in the peanut gallery kind of just saying, oh, I would I wouldn't do it like that.

而且就美联储主席而言，这个职位的设计本就是为了促成这种变化。

And in the case of the Fed chair, by the way, the job is literally designed to cause that to happen.

这个职位，以及美联储主席职位的结构，都是为了使主席免受行政分支的压力。

The job, the structure of the institution and of the chair's job is designed to insulate the chair from pressure from the executive branch.

特朗普谈到，当人们获得这个职位时，他们的观点会发生惊人的变化。

So Trump talks about how it's incredible how people change their views when they get the job.

是的。

Yes.

确实如此，而这正是关键所在。

That is true, and it is the whole point.

对吧？

Right?

所以，是的。

So Yeah.

你知道的？

You know?

但是

But

特朗普 apparently 上周末参加了一个晚宴，还开了个小玩笑，说：‘哦，你知道的，我提名了凯文·华盛顿，如果他不迅速降息，我就告他。’

Trump also apparently was at a dinner at the weekend, and he made a little joke saying, oh, you know, I'm I'm I'm nominating Kevin Washington, and if he doesn't cut rates quickly, I'm gonna sue him.

是的。

Yes.

这太好笑了。

It's Hilarious.

别这样啊。

Please don't that.

笑话。

Joke.

请别这么做。

Please don't do that.

大人，陛下，您真酷。

Your honor, your majesty, you are cool.

您太有趣了。

You are so funny.

我们稍后再多聊一点这个。

Let's get to a little bit more on that in a minute.

但与此同时，您和克里斯·吉尔斯一直撰文提到，沃什与现任美联储主席杰伊·鲍威尔属于完全不同类型的人，因为杰伊·鲍威尔戴着那副半月形眼镜，非常注重数据。

But in the meantime, another thing that you've been writing about and that Chris Giles has been writing about is that Wash is cut from a somewhat different cloth than Jay Powell, who is currently the Fed chair, in the sense that Jay Powell, with his little half moon glasses, is very much like he's data dependent.

他一贯的公开立场是：我并不固守某一种行动路径。

He is he his his public line has always been, I'm not wedded to one path of action or another.

我会根据数据决定方向，做符合我职责范围内经济最佳利益的事。

I will go where the data tells me, and I will do whatever is in the best interest of the economy according to my mandate.

而沃什则有点像，我有自己的观点，我认为它们会以某种方式实现。

Whereas, WASH is a bit like, I've got views, and I think that they're gonna work out in certain ways.

所以他最关注的是生产率。

So his big one is around productivity.

他说，你知道，我们有人工智能。

And he says, you know, we've got AI.

我们有这么多令人惊叹的尖端技术，我认为这将使每个人变得更加高效，从而降低通货膨胀。

We've got all this wonderful whiz bang technology, and I think that's going to make everyone much more efficient, which is going to pull down inflation.

没问题。

Fine.

这可能是对的。

That might be right.

这可能是错的。

That might be wrong.

但目前我们并不清楚，因此以此为基础制定政策有些不稳妥。

But currently, we don't know, which is makes it a bit of a sketchy thing to base policy on.

好的。

Okay.

所以只是为了确保我们理解这里的论点。

So just just to make sure we understand the argument here.

这里的论点是，当需求超过经济供应能力时，就会产生通货膨胀。

The argument here is you get inflation when demand exceeds the capacity of the economy to supply that demand.

对吗？

Right?

所以人们想要更多东西，并且有金钱去购买更多商品，但经济无法提供足够的商品，因此价格就会上涨，因为商品相对于货币来说不够用。

So you people want more stuff and have money to buy more stuff than the economy can give them, and so the prices go up because there's not enough stuff or whatever relative to the money.

其理念是，如果生产率提高，经济就能提供更多的商品，这样价格就不必上涨。

The idea is if you get more productive, the economy can give you that more stuff so prices don't have to go up.

商品变多了，每个人都会更开心。

There's just more stuff, and everyone's happier.

这就是为什么生产率如此重要。

That's why productivity is so so important.

对吧？

Right?

这就是财富和梦想的源泉。

Is it it's what kind of wealth and dreams are made of.

好的。

Okay.

这都很好。

That's all good.

现在，沃什的观点是，人工智能革命有点像九十年代的互联网革命，当时你并没有在生产率数据中看到明显的变化。

Now, Warsh's view is that the AI revolution is a bit like the Internet revolution in the nineties, and that you didn't see that something big had happened in the productivity statistics.

但当时的美联储主席格林斯潘没有加息是正确的，因为他知道生产率提升即将到来，尽管他还没能观测到。

But Greenspan, who was chair then, was right not to raise rates because he knew the productivity was coming even though he couldn't see it.

所以他想在人工智能革命中也做像格林斯潘那样的人。

So he wants to be Greenspan too for the AI revolution.

他还基于有限的证据认为，可以缩减美联储的资产负债表。

He also thinks with limited evidence that you can cut the Fed's balance sheet.

对吧？

Right?

所以你可以逐步减少美联储控制的这笔巨额资金，而不会扰乱信贷市场或引发任何意外。

So you can kind of work down on this massive pot of money that the Fed controls without that messing up credit markets and without it causing any sort of accident.

不过，再次强调，他在这方面可能确实是对的，但这多少有点冒险，不是吗？

Now, again, he may well be right on this, but it is a bit of a punt, isn't it?

确实是。

It is.

不过我要为他辩解一下，美联储刚刚经历了一段长时间的资产负债表自然缩减过程。

Although I will say in his defense that the Fed did just go through a long period of allowing the balance sheet to run off.

再说一遍，这意味着他们持有大量此前购入的债券。

Again, what that means is they have all these bonds that they bought.

有一段时间，每当这些债券到期时，他们都没有用新的债券来替换。

And what they did for a while was when one of those bonds expired, they didn't replace it with another one.

所以他们让资产负债表逐渐缩小。

So they sort of let the balance sheet get smaller.

所以在2022年到最近这段时间，美联储资产负债表上大约两万亿美元、也就是25%的规模消失了。

So between 2022 and just recently, you know, a couple of trillion dollars or about 25% of the balance sheets of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet disappeared.

对吧？

Right?

但并没有发生什么糟糕的事情。

And nothing terrible happened.

他所说的是，我们可以再做更多类似的事情。

And what he's saying is we could do more of that.

我们可以让这个过程继续下去，而不会造成任何损害。

We could just let this thing wind down further with no harm.

现在有很多人认为，当美联储资产负债表收缩时，实际上就是在从金融体系中抽走现金。

Now there's a lot of people out there who think when the Fed when the balance sheet shrinks, when the Fed's balance sheet shrinks, what it does is basically suck cash out of the financial system.

换句话说，由于原因过于复杂而无法详述，其净效果是私人部门手中的债券增多、现金减少。

In other words, for reasons too technical to describe, the net effect of it is that you have more bonds and less cash floating around in private hands in the financial system.

但对现金的需求、对现金的需要并不会减少。

But the demand for cash, the need for cash doesn't go down.

所以主要的担忧是会出现一种现金恐慌。

So the big worry is you have a kind of cash panic.

有人需要偿还短期贷款或滚动续期债务，但金融系统中没有足够的现金可供调配。

Somebody needs to pay off a short term loan or roll over some debt, and there's just not enough cash sloshing around in the financial system for that cash to be made available.

这其中很大一部分也取决于他希望多快地缩减资产负债表。

A lot of it also would depend on how quickly he wants to wind down the the balance sheet.

对吧？

Right?

如果你说的那样，只是等着债券到期，然后不再购买新债券，那没问题。

If, as you say, you're just in a situation where bonds mature and you just don't buy any more bonds, then fine.

那种过程简直就像看油漆慢慢干燥一样。

That sort of is a process that is pretty much like watching paint dry.

然而，如果你走英国央行的路子，主动出售央行持有的资产，这实际上可能会推高借贷成本，并压低债券价值。

If, however, you go down the Bank of England route and actively sell stuff that you own as a central bank, that can put more upward pressure on borrowing costs actually and and push down the value of bonds.

所以这里存在一种节奏问题，可能会有点

So it there's a kind of pacing thing here that can be a little bit

难以应对。

difficult to navigate.

节奏需要把握，而且还有其他各种因素。

Pacing some and, also, there's all kinds of other factors.

你知道，除了美联储的资产负债表外，还有很多因素会影响金融系统的流动性。

You know, there's a lot of factors that affect the liquidity in the financial system beside the Fed's balance sheet.

所以，如果在经济良好、人们愿意放贷、信贷条件宽松、银行大把撒钱的时候缩减资产负债表，那就没什么问题。

So if you shrink it when times are good and people are willing to lend and credit conditions are loose and banks are throwing money out their windows, everything's fine.

问题是，如果美联储在人们感到恐慌、金融条件紧缩的时候缩减资产负债表，就可能引发真正的问题。

The question is if the Fed is shrinking its balance sheet at a moment where people are scared and financial conditions are tight, then you could get a real problem.

这里你必须牢记的大背景是美国巨大的财政赤字。

The big context here that you have to keep in mind is the huge fiscal deficits of The United States.

你花的钱

Spending money you do

是不存在的。

not have.

亲爱的，我们没有。

Honey, we don't have.

所以当政府这样做的时候，他们把大量债务推入金融体系，这些债务必须有人购买，这也吸收了现金。

And so when that when the government is doing that, they're pushing all this debt into the financial system that has to be bought by somebody, and that's cash absorbing too.

对吧？

Right?

因此，你知道，金融体系必须保持充足的现金，因为总得有人购买美国的所有债务。

So what you know, the financial system has to be kept flush with cash because somebody's gotta buy all The US debt.

是的。

Yeah.

对吧？

Right?

所以问题是，你能否同时拥有一个更小的资产负债表和巨大的财政赤字？

So the question is, can you have both a smaller balance sheet and massive fiscal deficits at the same time?

以及更低的利率。

And lower interest rates.

沃什认为，如果你收紧资产负债表，赤字就会减少。

And Worsch has this view that if you tighten the balance sheet, the deficits will go down.

换句话说，他认为以美联储购买债券形式呈现的宽松货币政策实际上是在鼓励赤字支出。

In other words, he thinks loose monetary policy in the form of Federal Reserve bond buying is actually encouraging deficit spending.

当然，通常的观点是因果关系恰恰相反，即由于存在巨额赤字，所以必须进行债券购买。

The usual view, of course, is that the causality runs the other direction, that there's huge deficits so there has to be bond buying.

但他却颠倒了因果关系，或者至少认为因果关系是双向的。

But he he he reverses the arrow of causation or at least thinks the arrow goes both ways.

所以，我认为这可能是一种幻想。

So and I think that may be a fantasy.

换句话说，仅仅因为他改变了美联储的资产负债表政策，并不意味着联邦政府就会突然醒悟，停止赤字支出。

In other words, just because he changes bet Fed balance sheet policy doesn't mean the federal government is gonna get religion about deficit spending.

我只是觉得这不现实。

I just don't think that's realistic.

这里有一个正在悄然发展的观点是，沃尔什并没有积极参与反对总统对央行的攻击，他一直置身事外，也从未成为支持央行独立性的特别响亮的声音。

One of the things sort of bubbling along here is that Walsh has not been one of the people really pushing back at the president's attack stayed on the sidelines of that and has not been a particularly noisy voice in favor of central bank independence.

不。

No.

这让我回到我一个一直坚持的观点，我敢保证我没错。

This leads me back to one of my hobby horses, which I swear I'm not wrong about.

前几天，我们一些可爱的同事，包括克莱尔·琼斯、迈尔斯·麦科密克和阿米莉亚·波拉德，写了一篇很棒的文章，讲述了沃尔什是如何获得这份工作的。

So a bunch of our lovely colleagues, including Claire Jones, Miles McCormick, and Amelia Pollard wrote a lovely story the other day about how Walsh got the job, basically.

在这一过程中，真正赢得财政部长斯科特·贝松青睐的人，是那些希望美联储进行根本性变革的人。

And the sorts of people in the room or in the process that really managed to win over Scott Besson, the treasury secretary who was advising on on the nomination, were those who were looking for regime change at at the Fed.

人们普遍认为，可能会对美联储的职责或运作方式进行全面改革。

And there is this sense that there could be some sort of more fundamental overhaul of the Fed's mandate or the way

那

that

它的工作方式。

it works.

你对此怎么看？

What's your take on that?

因为again，这种变化可能相当微妙，大概不是普通老百姓能注意到的类型。

Because again, that could be quite subtle and probably not the sort of thing that most, you know, ordinary people in the street would notice.

或者它可能彻底重写美联储的使命。

Or it could be a really big rewriting of what the Fed is for.

你是否仍然认为美联储的使命不可能被彻底重新调整？

Are you still writing off the possibility that its mandate could get, like, a do over?

因为我并不这么认为。

Because I'm not.

我认为，在沃什领导下的美联储，更重要的是，即使在沃什和一个支持沃什的公开市场委员会下。

I think the Fed under Worsch and most importantly, even under a Warsh and an open market committee that is sympathetic to Warsh.

也就是说，让我们假设他成功说服了委员会所有成员，他是一位极具影响力的美联储主席，能够为所欲为。

Meaning, let's let's assume that he talks all the committee members over to his side, and he's a really powerful Fed chairman, and he can do what he wants.

你觉得他想做些什么呢？

You know, what do we think he wants to do?

我不认为他想废除就业使命或物价稳定使命，或者类似的东西。

I don't think he wants to get rid of the employment mandate or the stable prices mandate or anything like that.

我认为他认为美联储太大了。

I do think he thinks the Fed is just too big.

所以，如果他提出要裁掉大量人员，我一点都不惊讶。

So I wouldn't be surprised to see him say things like, let's sack loads of people.

让我们减少研究工作。

Let's do less research.

是的。

Yeah.

让我们把整个机构精简一下。

Let's slim this whole thing down.

让我们别再写关于经济不平等等等的论文了。

Let's stop writing papers about economic inequality and etcetera, etcetera.

我们就把它简化成最基础的形态吧。

Let's just bare bones it a little bit.

你知道，他就是经常说这类话。

And, you know, those are the kinds of noises he makes.

他还经常提到美联储和财政部在货币政策实施上加强合作。

He also makes noises about the Fed and the treasury cooperating more on monetary policy implementation.

是的。

Yeah.

如果你是市场人士，这会在你脑海中敲响一点警钟：这种情况会发展到什么地步？

And if you're a markets person, that rings a little alarm bell in the back of your head saying, how far could that go?

是的。

Yeah.

那意味着什么？

What does that mean?

这种做法的糟糕版本是，美联储沦为财政部的附庸。

The bad version of that is where the Fed becomes a servant of the treasury.

财政部想做某事，而美联储就只能用它的货币政策工具唯命是从。

And the treasury wants to do x, and the Fed's job with its monetary policy levers is just its little minion.

关于美联储与财政部更高程度合作的言论，确实应该让你感到不安，这就像骆驼的鼻子钻进了帐篷，我不喜欢这样。

Orsha's talk about higher Fed treasury cooperation absolutely should make you jumpy, and it is the camel's nose getting into the tent, and I don't like it.

罗布，我们马上回来聊一下多空策略。

Rob, we are going to have to come back in just one second with long short.

好的。

Okey dokey.

现在是多空策略时间了，这个环节我们会分享我们看多的喜欢的东西，或者看空的讨厌的东西。

It is time for long short, that part of the show where we go long, a thing we love, or short, a thing we hate.

罗布，你打算说什么？

Rob, what you saying?

我看好主题公园。

I'm long the theme park.

我注意到，迪士尼下一任首席执行官将是乔什·达马罗，他以前负责主题公园部门。

I noticed that the next CEO of Mighty Disney is gonna be the guy, Josh D'Amaro, who used to run the theme park division.

我年纪够大，记得十年前，人们看到迪士尼还会说：他们干嘛还要经营这些愚蠢的主题公园？

And I'm I'm old enough to remember, like, decade ago, people would look at Disney and be like, why do they even run those stupid theme parks?

这些主题公园的盈利能力远不如电影和电视业务。

They're so much more unprofitable than the movie business and the TV business.

世界已经变了，突然间，这个行业最棒的部分就是那些线下体验，你亲自去参与的活动。

The world has changed, and, like, suddenly, the best part of the business is the live part where you go and actually do stuff.

所以虽然我个人不喜欢去主题公园，但我认为，这真是个不错的生意。

So while I personally don't like going to theme parks, I think, man, that's a good business.

在人工智能的世界里，尤其是主题公园，那就是未来。

And in the world of AI, especially theme parks, it's the future.

一旦我们不需要再工作了，因为AI什么都替我们做了，我们就会整天泡在主题公园里。

Once once we don't have to work anymore because AI does everything, we're just basically going to theme parks all day.

你将会整天坐过山车。

You're gonna spend all day on roller coasters.

我挺赞成这个想法的。

I'm I'm kinda down with that.

我喜欢过山车。

I I like roller coasters.

我也是。

Me too.

说到相关的话题，我支持极短的 grindcore 风格。

On a on a related ish note, I am short grindcore.

所以我不知道你有没有看到前几天汉娜·墨菲在我们页面上发表的那篇文章，讲的是硅谷年轻人那种拼命工作、从不玩乐的现象。

So I don't know if you saw the piece the other day from Hannah Murphy on our page about this whole, like, work hard, don't play at all thing that, like, thrusting young Silicon Valley people do.

嗯。

Mhmm.

据说他们都在推崇一种叫‘996’的模式，也就是每天早上9点到晚上9点工作，每周六天。

Apparently, they're all into this thing called nine nine six, right, which means you work from 9AM to 9PM, six days a week.

她在文章中引用了一位来自人工智能初创公司的23岁年轻人的话，他说：现在的潮流是不喝酒、不吸毒、996、举重、长跑、早婚、监测睡眠、吃牛排和鸡蛋。

And there was a quote in her story from some 23 year old guy from an AI startup who's saying, the current vibe is no drinking, no drugs, nine nine six, lift heavy, run far, marry early, track sleep, eat steak, and eggs.

然后无聊到死。

And die of boredom.

去玩个主题公园吧，伙计们。

Go to a sodding theme park, guys.

是的。

Yeah.

我是说，认真点，放松点。

Like, seriously, like, lighten up.

别像普通人一样在Epcot中心喝醉。

Don't get drunk at Epcot Center like a normal person.

对。

Right.

所以如果你23岁，正在听这个，吃着鸡蛋、早睡、不喝酒、一点乐趣都没有，那你做错了。

So if you are 23 and you're listening to this, and you're eating eggs and going to bed early and not drinking and having zero fun, you're doing it wrong.

你只是在为老板卖命。

You are working for the man.

相信我，等你到了我这个年纪，当然也包括罗布的年纪，你就再也享受不了那种乐趣了。

Trust me, when you get to my age and certainly when you get to Rob's, you are not capable of having that sort of fun anymore.

所以你是在浪费时间。

So you are wasting time.

这就是我的建议。

So that's my advice.

现在，听众们，我们将在周四再次回到你们的耳中。

Now, listeners, we're gonna be back in your ears on Thursday.

届时请认真收听。

Listen up then.

与此同时，感谢你们对这件事的关注。

And in the meantime, thank you for your attention to this matter.

《Unhedged》由杰克·哈珀制作，布莱恩·厄斯塔德剪辑。

Unhedged is produced by Jake Harper and edited by Brian Erstadt.

我们的执行制片人是雅各布·戈德斯坦。

Our executive producer is Jacob Goldstein.

我们还得到了托菲爾·福雷頭斯的额外帮助。

We had additional help from Topher Foreheads.

切丽尔·布雷姆利是 Feet 的全球音频主管。

Cheryl Brumley is the Feet's global head of audio.

特别感谢劳拉·克拉克、艾利斯泰尔·麦基、格蕾塔·科恩和娜塔莉·萨德勒。

Special thanks to Laura Clark, Alistair Mackey, Greta Cohn, and Natalie Sadler.

Feet高级订阅用户可以免费获取《UnHedged》简报，其他人也可享受三十天免费试用。

Feet premium subscribers can get the UnHedged newsletter for free, and a thirty day free trial is available to everyone else.

请前往 ft.com/unhedgedoffer。

Just go to ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

我是凯蒂·马丁。

I'm Katie Martin.

感谢收听。

Thanks for listening.