小家庭如何改变世界

我是阿伊莎·罗斯科，这里是《Up First》的周日特辑，我们将超越日常新闻，为您带来一个重磅故事。

I'm Ayesha Roscoe, and this is a Sunday story from Up First where we go beyond the news of the day to bring you one big story.

您可能已经有所耳闻，如今家庭生育的孩子数量不如从前，不仅在美国如此，全球范围内都是这样。

You may have caught wind of this already, but families aren't having as many kids as they used to, not just here in The US, but around the world.

事实上，研究人员表示，现在女性平均生育的孩子数量比1970年代减少了一半。

In fact, researchers say the average woman is having half as many children now than they did in the 1970s.

阿什莉·埃文乔是纽约州北部的一位母亲，她认为一个孩子对家庭来说已经足够。

Ashley Evancho is a mom in Upstate New York who decided one child is enough for her family.

我不需要再要一个孩子。

I don't need another one.

我也不想再要一个孩子。

I don't want another one.

我很享受只养育一个孩子的生活。

I love having only one child.

我认为这是个非常明智的选择，因为这样我依然能保持生活的平衡。

It is, I think, a very elegant choice because I still feel like I have balance in my life.

为什么这么多家庭会做出这样的选择？

Why are so many families making this choice?

这对我们的未来究竟意味着什么？

And what exactly does it mean for our future?

美国国家公共电台推出了名为《人口转变：小型家庭如何改变世界》的新系列报道。

NPR has launched a new reporting series called Population Shift, How Smaller Families Are Changing the World.

我们将为您讲述做出非传统选择的家庭故事、人口增长快于发展的社区现状，以及班级规模逐年缩小的学校情况。

We're bringing you the stories of families that are making untraditional choices, communities that are growing faster than they're growing, and schools whose classes are getting smaller and smaller every year.

您可以在npr.org/populationshift上查看他们的所有报道。

You can find all their reporting at npr.org/populationshift.

稍后回来时，我们将从负责本系列的团队——NPR的Sarah McCammon和Brian Mann那里获得一些见解。

When we come back, we'll get some insight from the team that's taking the lead on this series, NPR's Sarah McCammon and Brian Mann.

本消息由Wise提供，这是一款全球资金管理应用。

This message comes from Wise, the app for using money around the globe.

使用Wise管理资金时，您总能获得中间市场汇率，且无隐藏费用。

When you manage your money with Wise, you'll always get the mid market exchange rate with no hidden fees.

加入数百万用户行列，请访问wise.com。

Join millions of customers and visit wise.com.

条款与条件适用。

Ts and cs apply.

本消息来自《修正主义历史》节目。

This message comes from revisionist history.

在《修正主义历史》中，关于阿拉巴马谋杀案的七集系列节目探讨了Kenny Smith案件，该案件成为死刑辩论的核心。

On revisionist history, the Alabama murders, the seven episode series looks at the case of Kenny Smith, which led to the center of the debate on capital punishment.

在您获取播客的任何平台收听。

Listen wherever you get your podcasts.

一场关于谁该掌控美国大学的斗争正在上演。

There's a battle playing out over who should control American universities.

哈佛。

Harvard.

我们要让这些大学破产。

We're gonna bankrupt these universities.

在第一季中，我们一直在猜测接下来会发生什么。

In season one, we were guessing what was to come.

现在我们知道了。

Now we know.

我们想从哈佛获得5亿美元。

We want 500,000,000 from Harvard.

这是《哈佛计划》的第二季。

It's season two of The Harvard Plan.

这一次，真的是私人恩怨了。

This time, it really is personal.

无论你在哪里收听播客，都可以收听《On the Media》。

Listen to On the Media wherever you get your podcasts.

嘿。

Hey.

我是《Car Talk》的雷。

It's Ray from Car Talk.

你厌倦了NPR节目中那些深度和深思熟虑的内容了吗？

You tired of all the depth and thoughtful care that goes into NPR shows?

想来点老式的胡闹和摸索着弄清楚发生了什么吗？

Want some good old fashioned goofing around and stumbling to figure out what's going on?

好吧，我又开始偶尔回答一些汽车问题了。

Well, I've been taking occasional car questions again.

你可以通过订阅NPR Plus来收听这些内容，还有大量其他额外内容。

You can hear them by signing up for NPR Plus along with lots of other bonus content.

直接访问+.npr.org网站。

Just go to +.npr.org.

嗯，你们俩好啊。

So well, hi to you both.

你好，莎拉。

Hi, Sarah.

你好，布莱恩。

Hi, Brian.

嘿。

Hey.

谢谢邀请我们。

Thanks for having us.

你们最初是怎么接触到这个故事的？

So how did you first encounter this story?

是什么促使你们想对此进行深度报道？

Like, what what made you wanna do some deep reporting on it?

阿伊莎，你知道，我是逐渐意识到这个问题的。

You know, Ayesha, I woke up to this kind of slowly.

我这辈子大部分时间都住在小镇上，亲眼目睹它们逐渐衰落。

I've lived in small towns most of my life, and I've seen them kind of dwindling.

你知道，人口正在老龄化。

You know, the population's getting older.

然后开始意识到这种现象不仅发生在美国农村地区。

And started to realize this wasn't just happening in rural America.

这种现象正在全国范围内普遍发生。

It's happening everywhere nationwide.

上世纪六十年代我出生时，美国女性通常生育三到四个孩子。

American women had between three and four kids typically in the nineteen sixties when I was born.

如今平均生育一到两个孩子，这不足以维持人口稳定。

Now it's an average of one to two kids, and that's not enough to maintain a stable population.

于是我们开始探究原因，思考这种现象的成因及其潜在影响。

So we started asking questions about this, why this is happening and what it might mean.

让我为大家介绍一位受访者。

Let me just introduce you to one voice.

这位是杰里米·埃文斯。

This is Jeremy Evans.

他在纽约州北部的小镇富兰克林县从事经济发展工作。

He works on economic development in tiny little Franklin County in Upstate New York.

他表示现在人口问题是他最担忧的事。

He says now population is his biggest worry.

我们的人口将持续减少。

Our population will continue to decline.

更令人担忧的是年轻人口数量的下降。

More worrisome to us is the decline in population of younger people.

令人震惊的是，阿伊莎，这种情况正在全国各地上演。

And what's amazing, Ayesha, is that this is happening all over the country.

如今美国半数县的老年人口数量已超过儿童。

In half the counties in The US now, older people outnumber kids.

要知道，我也报道过农村衰落的现象。

You know, I've also covered rural decline.

我的职业生涯始于内布拉斯加州和爱荷华州的公共广播电台，因此我目睹了其中一些趋势。

I started my career in public radio in Nebraska and Iowa, and so I'd seen some of these trends.

后来，我长期报道保守派政治和堕胎辩论的相关议题。

You know, then I covered conservative politics and the abortion debate for a long time.

所以当布莱恩带着他深入研究的数据找到我时，从社区变迁和人们选择的角度来看，我完全被吸引住了。

So when Brian came to me looking at some of this data he'd been digging into, I was absolutely fascinated both from the standpoint of how communities are changing and the choices that people are making.

这感觉像是人们生活方式的一次重大转变，我想更深入地理解它。

It feels like a really seismic shift in the way that people live, and I wanted to understand it better.

另外，我想分享一个个人故事。

And, know, I'll just share a personal story.

我记得怀上现在读高中的第二个孩子时，曾参加过一个环境记者会议。

I remember back when I was pregnant with my second child who's now in high school, I was attending a conference for environmental journalists.

当时我参加了一个讨论人口过剩对地球影响的研讨会。

And I went to this session that was talking about the impact of overpopulation on the planet.

我挺着明显的孕肚举手提问。

And I, you know, raised my hand visibly pregnant.

我问道：根据研究，当今世界理想的生育数量应该是多少？

And I asked, you know, based on the research, what's an ideal number of kids for people to be having in this world?

看得出来，这个问题让在场所有人都感到不自在。

And, you know, everyone seemed uncomfortable with the question.

没有人能给我一个明确的答案。

Nobody would really give me a clear answer.

但是，我一直对这些非常个人化、充满焦虑且私密的问题着迷，因为它们对我们的生活方式和经济运作方式产生了巨大影响。

But, I've just been fascinated with these really, you know, personal and fraught and intimate questions ever since because they also have a really big impact on the way we live and on the way that, you know, economies work.

是的。

Yeah.

对数据的好奇心，以及我们在个人生活中观察到的现象，促使我们开始了这段旅程。NPR和我们的成员电台派遣记者前往撒哈拉以南非洲、东亚、欧洲以及美国各地，探究家庭规模缩小的原因、其意义以及我们可能需要如何适应。

And and this curiosity about the data, but also about what we've been seeing in our personal lives got us started on this journey, which led to NPR and our member stations sending reporters all over the world to Sub Saharan Africa, to East Asia, Europe, all across The US to look at why families are getting smaller, what it means, and how we may have to adapt.

在深入具体内容之前，我想先澄清一些术语。

I wanna clear up some of the language before we dive into the specifics.

当我们谈论出生率下降时，具体指的是什么？

What exactly do we mean when we talk about a declining birth rate?

是的。

Yeah.

科学家们使用的一个基本测量指标叫做总和生育率。

So a really basic measure that scientists use looking at this is a thing called total fertility rate.

这是个专业术语，指的是一个国家或全球范围内，女性一生中平均生育的子女数量估计值。

That's a technical term, and that's the estimate of how many children the average woman in a country or on the planet will have in their lifetimes.

这个数字曾经非常高。

And it used to be really high.

就在几十年前，全球平均值是每位女性生育五个孩子。

Just a few decades ago, the average globally was five children per woman.

现在全球平均值已降至2.2。

Now globally, it's dropped to 2.2.

对吧？

Right?

相比之下这确实很低。

That's really low comparatively.

在美国和许多国家，这一数字甚至降得更低，跌破了所谓的更替水平。

And in The United States, in many countries, it's dropped even lower, down below what people call the replacement rate.

这意味着我们生育的孩子数量太少，无法维持稳定的人口。

That means we're having too few children to maintain a stable population.

这种缓慢的变化累积起来，最终会导致人口老龄化和数量减少。

And so slowly, that all adds up to populations aging and eventually declining.

我是一位有三个孩子的单身母亲，能照顾他们是我的福气，但养育他们花费很大。

I I'm a single mother of three, and I'm I'm blessed to be able to take care of them, but they cost a lot of money.

但我爱他们。

But I love them.

他们很棒。

They're great.

但有些人确实在经济上负担不起。

But there are people out there who just wouldn't be able to financially afford it.

对吧？

Right?

就像，我们看到的出生率下降有多少纯粹是因为人们觉得——我根本养不起孩子，或者养不起超过一两个孩子？

Like, how much of this decline that we're seeing in birth rates just boils down to people feeling like, I cannot afford to have kids or to have more than one or two.

是的。

Yeah.

经济因素绝对是重要原因。

Money is definitely a big part of this.

我们不断从女性那里听到这样的话。

We hear this over and over from women.

这很昂贵。

It's expensive.

养育孩子很困难。

It's hard to raise kids.

年轻家庭也表达了同样的观点。

Young families say the same things.

但真正令人惊讶的是，这种情况甚至发生在生活水平非常高、收入非常高且对家庭有很多支持的地方。

But what's really fascinating is that it's happening even in places where standards of living are really high and incomes are really high, and there's a lot of support for families.

因此，真正引人深思的是，金钱固然是部分原因，但似乎还存在某种非常深刻的文化转变。

And so, really, the fascinating piece here is that, for sure, money is a part of it, but there also seems to be some kind of a a cultural shift that's really, really profound.

我想引入另一个观点。

I wanna introduce another voice.

这是圣地亚哥天主教大学的社会学家玛蒂娜·洛波·迪亚兹。

This is Martina Lopo Diaz, who's a sociologist at Santiago's Catholic University.

从经济到劳动力市场，再到养老金和护理，所有关键社会系统都基于新世代将取代旧世代的原则。

All key social systems from the economy to the labor market to pensions to care are based on the principle that there will be new generations to replace the old ones.

但现在我们发现，这个原则已不再是我们能视为理所当然的了。

But now we see that that principle is no longer something that we can, you know, take as given.

我们想真正了解这种情况在现实中是什么样子。

And we wanted to really get a sense of what this looks like on the ground.

我去了一个新生儿减少的影响特别强烈的地方。

I went to a place where the impact of fewer babies being born is felt especially intensely.

在希腊，人口正在老龄化，随着年轻人离开和留下的人生育更少，人口也在减少。

In Greece, the population is aging, and it's also shrinking as younger people move away and those who stay have fewer kids.

我去了几个小岛，那里的孩子越来越少。

And I went to a couple of small islands where there are fewer and fewer children.

我遇到了一个叫乔治娅·格拉玛提库的女孩。

I met a girl named Georgia Gramaticu.

她16岁，住在爱琴海东部的一个小岛上。

She's 16, and she lives on this tiny island in the Eastern Aegean Sea.

她说她在那看不到自己的未来。

She said she doesn't really see a future for herself there.

这里很美很宁静。

It's very nice here and it's peaceful.

但我不

But I don't

认为自己会

see myself living here in

在未来住在这里，因为机会不多。

the future because there aren't many opportunities.

渐渐地，小商店都关门了。

Little by little, the small shops are closing down.

人越来越少。

There are fewer and fewer people.

这是希腊政府和地方官员担忧的问题。

And this is a concern for the Greek government and also for local officials.

你能详细说说这些下降的出生率是如何影响地方和国家经济的吗？

Can you tell me more about how these declining birth rates are impacting local and national economies?

嗯，我听到的主要担忧是这会陷入一种恶性循环：学校关闭、人口外迁、企业倒闭，情况只会随时间越来越糟。

Well, the big worry that I hear is that you get into sort of this vicious spiral where schools close down, people move away, businesses close, and it just gets worse and worse over time.

你知道的，年轻人离开后生育更少孩子，劳动力就会越来越难找。

You know, you get young people leaving having fewer kids, and it's harder to find workers.

最终，整个地区就会彻底凋零。

And and eventually, there's just nothing left.

希腊政府对此非常担忧，最近刚推出了一项价值数十亿美元的税收激励计划，旨在鼓励年轻希腊人生育。

The Greek government is so worried about it that they just recently rolled out a package of tax incentives worth several billion dollars designed to encourage younger Greeks to have children.

我最近采访了希腊财政部长基里亚科斯·皮拉哈基斯。

I recently spoke with the Greek finance minister Kyriakos Pyrrachakis.

这对我们而言是生死攸关的问题。

This is an existential problem for us.

这是我们面临的生存挑战，必须创造积极顺风来抵消人口结构曲线带来的负面逆风。

It's an existential challenge for us, and we need to create the positive tailwinds to counter the negative headwinds, of the effects of our demographic curve.

你告诉我他们正特别针对农村地区和岛屿实施部分税收激励政策。

And you told me they're focusing especially with some of these tax incentives on rural areas and islands.

我认为关键在于，阿伊莎，希腊正在发生的情况其实遍布全球。

And I think what's really important here, Ayesha, is that what's happening in Greece is happening all over the world.

整个欧洲都是如此。

This is across Europe.

东亚地区也不例外。

It's across East Asia.

它位于南美洲，甚至在这里的北美洲也有。

It's in South America and and even here in North America.

因此我们将看到学校关闭，地球上越来越多地区的人口老龄化。

So we're gonna be seeing schools closing, aging populations in more and more parts of the planet.

养孩子很费钱。

Kids are expensive.

休息过后，莎拉和布莱恩将深入探讨人们不愿多生育的另一大原因。

After the break, Sarah and Brian dig into another big reason people aren't having as many kids.

本周《思考时刻》聚焦一个加密群聊——国民警卫队成员正在其中讨论特朗普总统的行动。

This week on Consider This, an encrypted group chat where members of the National Guard are processing president Trump's actions.

这根本不是我们

This is just not what any of

当初加入时预想的局面，我只想知道，有谁会站出来反抗这一切？

us signed up for, and I just wonder, like, who's gonna stand up to this?

此外，国会民主党本周采取行动要求公布更多杰弗里·爱泼斯坦的邮件，他们接下来会有什么动作？

Plus, what's next for congressional Democrats after their move this week to release more of Jeffrey Epstein's emails?

本周请通过NPR应用或您常用的播客平台收听《思考时刻》。

Listen this week to consider this on the NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts.

本周

This week

NPR政治播客将带来蓝州民主党选区重划的最新动态。

on the NPR politics podcast, the latest on Democrats in some blue states redistricting.

虽然仍存在诸多不确定因素，但

A lot is still uncertain, but

民主党在中期选举中的形势看起来没有之前那么糟糕了。

The picture moving into the midterms for Democrats isn't looking as bad as it once did.

此外，政府停摆已经结束。

Plus, the government shutdown is over.

国会接下来关注什么？

What's congress focused on next?

这些内容及更多每日政治报道，尽在NPR政治播客。

That and more daily political coverage on the NPR politics podcast.

通过NPR应用或任何你获取播客的平台收听。

Listen on the NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts.

互联网让任何人都能将创意转化为收入，数百万人正在尝试。

The Internet made it possible for anyone to turn creativity into income, and millions are trying.

但当我们的想法、语言甚至文化都被可货币化的内容所塑造时，会发生什么？

But what happens when our ideas, our language, even our culture are shaped by what's monetizable?

本周TED广播时间探讨创作者经济的兴起，以及AI等新技术如何定义我们未来的价值观。

This week, TED Radio Hour explores the rise of the creator economy and how new tech like AI could define what we value next.

通过NPR应用或任何你获取派对的平台收听。

Listen on the NPR app or wherever you get your pie.

现在很多年轻人——以及一些年长者——都在艰难地寻找伴侣。

A lot of young people are struggling to find partners right now, and and and some older people too.

许多国家确实存在这种孤独感蔓延的现象。

There's really this epidemic of loneliness in many countries.

我想这正在影响人们关于生育的决策。

I would imagine that that's affecting decisions about parenting.

对。

Right.

正如布莱恩提到的，这不仅仅是钱的问题。

Like Brian mentioned, it's not just about money.

世界上一些最富裕的国家正经历着最大幅度的生育率下降。

Some of the wealthiest countries in the world are seeing some of the biggest declines.

我也去了芬兰，因为该国以慷慨的家庭休假政策闻名。

I went to Finland as well because that's a country that's known for its generous family leave.

父母双方都有带薪休假，政府大力补贴育儿费用，提供免费医疗等等。

There's paid time off for both mothers and fathers, heavily subsidized childcare, free health care, and so on.

然而自2010年以来，芬兰的出生率下降了约三分之一。

And yet Finland has seen its birth rate drop by about a third since 2010.

我想知道原因。

And I wanted to know why.

我采访了安娜·拉特基特。

I talked to Anna Ratkirt.

她是芬兰家庭联盟的研究员，曾为芬兰政府准备过一份关于所有这些问题的报告。

She's a researcher at the Family Federation of Finland, and she prepared a report for the Finnish government looking at all of this.

她说这其中有很多因素在起作用。

She says there are a lot of factors in play.

肯定不止一个原因。

It's definitely not just one.

但她发现的问题之一是，年轻人越来越难建立稳定的、能发展为家庭的关系，即使他们声称这是自己的愿望。

But one of the issues she sees is that younger people are having a harder time forming stable relationships that lead to families, even if that's what they say they want.

我们在芬兰看到，绝大多数当代年轻人也渴望拥有稳定、忠诚的伴侣关系。

We see in Finland that the overwhelming majority also of today's young adults would like to have a steady, committed partnership.

我们去学校走访。

We go to schools.

我们与17岁的青少年交谈，会问他们：如果你想要家庭的话，你理想中的家庭是什么样的？

We talk to 17 year olds, and we are like, you know, what would be your ideal family if you want a family at all?

你知道吗，我想要一栋带花园的小房子，养条狗，有个配偶和三个孩子。

You know, I want a small house with a dog and a garden and a spouse and three children.

这真的让我心碎，因为我觉得如果世界继续这样发展下去，这个愿望根本无法实现。

And it really breaks my heart because I'm like, that's not gonna happen if the world goes on like it's now.

但这就是他们明确表达的愿望。

But this is what they say they want.

对我们而言，这就是工作的起点。

And for us, that's the starting point.

这至少是我在芬兰从人们口中听到的真实反馈，尤其是女性群体。

And this is something I heard at least anecdotally from people I met in Finland, especially women.

她们认为找到合适稳定的伴侣很困难，有时甚至对那些想要孩子的人来说也是如此。

The idea that finding a suitable stable partner is difficult, sometimes even for those who'd like to have children.

拉丽莎·鲁道夫森48岁，是一位自主选择的单身母亲。

Larissa Rudolfsson is 48 and a single mom by choice.

她30多岁前曾有过婚姻，但未与前夫生育，后来决定成为母亲，在四十多岁时借助辅助生殖技术生育了两个孩子。

She was married until her 30s and she did not have children with her ex husband, but later decided she wanted to become a mother and had two children in her forties with the help of assisted reproductive technology.

以下是她就遇到的类似处境女性所发表的看法。

Here's what she says about the women she meets in similar situations.

我认为随着女性受教育程度提高，我们正逐渐远离传统的‘男主外女主内’模式，女性也意识到自己同样可以赚钱养家。

I think as women get more educated and we are, like, getting further and further from the traditional model that the man earns and woman takes care of the family and home, women also realize that they can earn.

为什么要忍受她们本不愿忍受的事情呢？

And why put up with something that they don't want to put up with?

所以她说，她希望能找到一个合适的伴侣，但至今仍未遇到那个人。

So she said, you know, she'd like to have a suitable partner, but she hasn't found that person.

她还表示，如今女性拥有比过去更多的选择权，并且正在行使这些权利。

And she says women have many more options today than they once did, and they are exercising those options.

至少在美国，围绕这个话题的讨论确实集中在女性社会角色和期望值的转变上。

A lot of the the talk around this issue, at least here in The US, does focus on the changing expectation and roles of women in society.

我和我兄弟经常讨论这个，他说这不过是客观事实。

And my brother and I are always talking about this and he says, you know, it's just, you know, facts.

他强调这不是他的个人观点——女性确实在某种程度上把事业置于家庭之前。

It's not his his his opinion, he says, that women are kinda putting their careers ahead of families.

不过他也说，这并非坏事。

But, you know, he's he's not saying that's a bad thing.

他只是陈述这个事实。

He's just saying that's a fact.

但我总觉得这像是在把大部分责任归咎于女性。

But I do kinda feel like that puts a lot of the blame on women.

毕竟一个巴掌拍不响。

Like, like and it takes two to tango.

你从接触的人那里都听到了什么反馈？

What what are you hearing from the people that you're meeting?

我认为这是个非常重要的观点，阿伊莎。

I think that's a really important point, Ayesha.

现实情况是，世界已经改变，正如我们所说，女性现在确实有了更多选择。

And the reality is that, you know, the world has changed, and women do, as we said, have more choices now.

这既体现在教育机会上，也体现在职业发展上。

And that's both in terms of educational and career opportunities.

还有避孕措施的普及，要知道这在人类历史上相对而言还是新事物。

Also, access to contraception, you know, that's a relatively new thing in terms of human history.

这两方面因素共同作用，意味着女性面临的选择格局已大不相同。

Those two things have have come together and meant that the landscape of options for women is really different.

研究人员还指出，生育更多子女通常意味着女性需要更多时间离开职场，延缓职业发展。数据显示女性仍承担着不成比例的家务劳动，这在经济层面会影响整个家庭。

And also, one thing I've heard from researchers is that, you know, for women to have more children, which often means taking more time out of the workforce, slowing down their careers, you know, the data suggests that women still do a disproportionate share of domestic labor, That comes at an economic cost now that hits the entire family.

因此这确实改变了决策考量。

And so it really has changed the calculus.

我曾与希腊人口经济学家亚历山德拉·特拉加基交流，以下是她就女性决策方式发表的看法。

I talked to an economic demographer in Greece named Alexandra Tragaki, and here's what she said about the way that women are making decisions.

女性改变了，但其他一切都没变。

Women changed, but nothing else did.

女性改变了角色定位，但社会和其他男性群体都未随之改变。

Women changed roles, but no one else did, neither the society nor men.

因此过去由女性承担的某些角色职责就出现了空缺。

So part of the roles that used to be covered by women were left uncovered.

当这种情况发生时，受影响的显然是家庭规模。

And when that happens, obviously, it's the the size of the family that is that is affected.

要知道，她也承认年轻一代正在某种程度上适应性别角色因经济现实和社会变革而发生的变化。

You know, and she acknowledged that younger generations are starting to adapt to some extent that gender roles are shifting in response to these economic realities and social changes.

尽管如此，许多女性仍觉得在承担当今各种责任的同时，她们实在无力养育更多孩子。

But still, many women feel they just don't have the capacity to manage larger families alongside everything else that women do today.

阿伊莎，我在与许多男女交流时——无论是已为人父者还是考虑做父亲的人——听到的一个共同点是，他们不接受因家庭规模变小而受到指责的观点。

And I think, Ayesha, one of the things I'm hearing from a lot of the women and men who I'm talking to, the fathers or the people considering fatherhood, is they don't accept this idea of being blamed for smaller families.

在很多情况下，他们对此感到相当愤怒。

They're they're pretty angry about it in many cases.

他们希望不受干扰地做出明智、私人的个人决定。

They wanna be left alone to make smart, private, personal decisions.

在多数情况下，他们对现有生活感到满意。

They're happy about their lives in many cases.

这样的生活让他们感到舒适。

It feels good to them.

因此，我认为全球范围内这些试图提高出生率、说服家庭多生孩子的努力...

And so, you know, I think all around the world, there are these efforts to boost birth rates and to convince families to have more kids.

我从许多人那里听到的回应是：别来干涉我们。

And what I'm hearing from a lot of people is leave us alone.

我们能处理好。

We got this.

我们正在做对自己和家人来说正确的事。

We're doing what feels right to us and to our families.

所以那种认为少生孩子就是做错了什么的论调——在我接触的大多数家庭中并不受欢迎。

And so that narrative that women who have fewer kids are doing something wrong, you know, that's not a popular view among most of the families I've been talking to.

我们了解到的一个现象是，无论年轻男性还是女性，他们对生活的设想都不同了。

And one of the things we've heard is that both younger men and women, they just imagine their lives differently.

生育孩子不再像过去许多人那样被视为理所当然。

Having kids is not assumed the way that maybe it once was for a lot of people.

年轻一代确实意识到，在性别角色方面出现了新的动态变化。

And younger generations do understand that there's a new dynamic in play when it comes to gender roles.

在芬兰，我采访了安塞尔米·奥拉莫。

In Finland, I talked to Anselmi Oramo.

他是赫尔辛基一名28岁的学生。

He's a 28 year old student in Helsinki.

他已订婚并最终想要孩子，但前提是经济状况更加稳定之后。

He's engaged to be married and wants children eventually, once he's more financially secure.

但他表示，对他们来说重要的是要达到经济条件允许雇佣家政服务的程度，这样两人都能兼顾事业和陪伴孩子的时间。

But he said it's important to him that they be in a place financially where they can afford household help, for instance, so that they can both have their careers and time with their children.

因为我不希望伴侣为了孩子放弃自己的人生，而让我成为主要的经济支柱。

Because I don't want my partner to drop her life for our children in order to me to basically be the provider or whatever.

我不想要那样。

I don't want that.

我认为每对伴侣都可以建立自己独特的关系模式，在关系中扮演他们想要的角色。

I think that everybody can have their own kind of relationship and have the roles that they want in their own relationships.

这不关我的事。

That's not my business.

但我不想强迫伴侣，也不想让自己被动接受传统模式。

But I don't want to push my partner or be basically, leave myself the traditional model into action.

你知道，他说他还在摸索如何应对这件事，也不太确定这对他的未来家庭会有什么影响。

You know, but he said he's still figuring out how to navigate that, and he's not exactly sure how that will work for his future family.

那么，美国现任政府对此议题持什么立场？

Well, how is the current administration talking about this issue in The US?

他们建议采取哪些措施来解决这个问题？

What are they proposing should be done about it?

正如你所知，美国人是否生育足够多孩子这个问题已成为政治右翼的主要议题。

Well, this question of whether or not Americans are having enough children has become a major theme on the political right, as you know.

副总统万斯曾表示希望美国能有更多新生儿。

Vice president Vance has said he wants more babies to be born in America.

阿拉巴马州参议员凯蒂·布里特将共和党称为'父母之党'。

Alabama senator Katie Britt has described the Republican party as the party of parents.

你可能记得几个月前，特朗普总统本人承诺要成为'生育总统'，他在去年竞选期间表示将扩大试管婴儿等生育治疗的普及。

Several months ago, you may remember president Trump himself promised to be the fertilization president, and he said during the campaign last year that he would expand access to fertility treatments like IVF.

就实际政策而言，政府迄今采取的措施相对有限。

Now in terms of actual policy, the administration has taken fairly modest action so far.

今年夏天通过的那项巨额支出法案确实包含了扩大儿童税收抵免，以及为特朗普任期内出生的婴儿提供1000美元投资账户的临时计划。

That massive spending bill that was passed over the summer did include an expanded child tax credit and a temporary program to give a thousand dollar investment accounts to babies born while Trump is in office.

他最近还宣布了一项降低部分试管婴儿药物成本的协议。

He also recently announced a deal to lower the cost of some IVF drugs.

但是阿伊莎，批评者指出考虑到养育孩子的高昂成本，这些措施在整体上对家庭的帮助其实非常有限。

But Ayesha, critics say that none of these measures really do much in the scheme of things to help families given just the huge costs involved in raising a child.

有个问题值得思考：这真的是个问题吗？

One thing you think about is, like, is this really a problem?

类似这样的事，我需要担心吗？

Like like, is this something I should be worried about?

好的。

Okay.

嗯，最终可能什么都不剩，但也许这就是上天的安排。

Well, eventually, maybe nothing will be left, but maybe that's what the Lord intended.

是啊。

Yeah.

这确实是个很棒的问题。

It's it's really a great question.

但通过我们数月来对此事的报道，我想我学到了这些。

But here's here's what I think I've learned over the months and months we've been reporting on this.

这事影响巨大。

This is huge.

对吧？

Right?

这是大规模的人口结构变化。

This is a big population shift.

中国将很快减少2亿劳动力。

China's gonna lose 200,000,000 workers very quickly.

意大利老龄化速度惊人，国家正冒险维持养老金体系。

Italy is getting so old so fast the country's gambling to maintain its pension system.

即使在美国，随着人口老龄化，我们也在担忧如何支付社保和医保等开支。

Even here in The US, there are questions about how we're gonna pay for things like Social Security and Medicare as we get older.

确实很多。

So it's a lot.

真正有趣的是，伦敦经济学院的经济学家兰斯·普里切特指出，人口变化如此之快，我们尚不清楚这一切将如何运作。

And and what's really interesting is that Lance Pritchett, an economist at the London School of Economics, says there's so much population change happening so fast, it's not clear how it's all gonna work.

当前所未有的事情发生时，很难预测会发生什么。

Hard to tell what's gonna happen when things that have never happened before happen.

我们根本没有国家在这方面取得成功的先例。

We just don't have any example of countries doing this successfully.

所以与其说是问题，阿伊莎，不如说是人类生活方式的一次剧变。

So not so much a a problem, Ayesha, but a dramatic change in the way we humans are living.

对许多女性和夫妇来说，这是一个非常积极的变化。

For a lot of women and couples, it's a really positive change.

他们过着更自由、更富足的生活，但这也意味着经济和社会体系，比如养老方式，都需要适应并做出重大调整。

They're living freer, more prosperous lives, but it also means for the economy and a lot of social systems, like how we care for the elderly, we're gonna have to adapt and and make some big changes.

与我交谈的一些研究者认为，人们理想中的子女数量与实际生育数量之间存在差距。

Some of the researchers I talked to believe that there is a gap between the number of children people say they want and the number that they actually have.

他们实际生育的孩子数量可能达不到期望值。

They're they're not having as many kids as they might want.

就这一点而言，不同意识形态的研究者都告诉我，如果有政策能帮助人们实现生育愿望——比如多生一个孩子——他们会认为这类政策是好事。

And to the extent that's true, you know, researchers across the ideological spectrum tell me if there are policies that can help people get from where they wanna be to where they are, if that means having another child, they see those kinds of policy ideas as a good thing.

那么从实际层面来看，我们目前看到政府或社区为适应这些变化做了哪些准备？

So looking forward, like, on a practical level, what are we actually seeing governments or communities do to prepare for or adapt to these changes?

各国政府对此非常重视，正在尝试多种应对措施。

Well, governments are concerned about this, and they're trying a number of different things.

我们提到希腊已实施了一些税收激励政策，鼓励想要孩子的家庭多生育。

We mentioned Greece has put through some tax incentives to encourage families to have more kids if they want them.

芬兰政府最近成立了一个委员会研究这个问题，并提出了一系列可能的解决方案。

Finland's government recently wrapped up a committee looking at this issue and suggested a bunch of possible solutions.

此外在希腊等地，私营部门也在努力推动小社区经济发展，帮助年轻父母支付医疗等费用。

And there are also some private sector efforts in places like Greece to spur economic development in smaller communities and help young parents pay for things like medical care.

但现实是，我们的很多研究表明，通过政策解决这个问题确实非常困难。

But the reality is that a lot of our research suggests it's really hard to address this through policy.

有一点我很好奇，就是这些措施最终是否能真正显著提高生育率。

And know, one thing I'll be curious about is whether or not any of these efforts actually result in a significant increase in birth rates.

是啊。

Yeah.

我认为另一个有趣的点是，在各国努力稳定甚至小幅增加家庭数量的同时，如何应对人口老龄化和最终减少的问题也值得关注。

And I think the other piece that's really gonna be interesting, while there are these efforts to have families stabilize or maybe even grow a little bit, there's a question about how countries can prepare themselves for an aging and eventually dwindling population.

这可能意味着要更多地使用人工智能，提高工厂自动化程度。

It may mean more use of AI, more automation in factories.

也可能需要适当延长退休年龄。

It may mean we have to extend retirement age a little bit.

与我交流的经济学家和研究人员表示，这种家庭结构转变已根深蒂固，我们必须开始调整经济和社会结构来适应——而现在我们才刚刚迈出第一步。

So what the economists and other researchers I've been talking to say is that this family shift is pretty deeply rooted, and the rest of us are gonna have to start adopting what the rest of the economy and society look like, and we're just still taking baby steps toward that now.

听起来这又是我们迟早都要面对的另一个重大难题。

Well, it sounds like another huge problem that we're all going to have to face at some point.

这是个非常个人化的问题，但对整个世界都有着深远影响。

It's a profoundly personal issue, but it's one that has huge implications for the rest of the world.

非常感谢你们两位对此事的关注。

And I I just thank you both for looking into it.

当然。

Absolutely.

谢谢，阿耶莎。

Thanks, Ayesha.

感谢这次精彩的对话。

Thanks for the great conversation.

这是NPR记者布莱恩·曼和莎拉·麦卡门。

That's NPR correspondents Brian Mann and Sarah McCammen.

想了解更多他们的报道，请访问我们的网站npr.org/populationshift。

And for more of their reporting, go to our website at npr.org/populationshift.

本系列名为《人口变迁：小型家庭如何改变世界》。

The series is called population shift, how smaller families are changing the world.

本期节目由米歇尔·阿斯拉姆制作，莉安娜·西姆斯特罗姆和艾琳·野口编辑。

This episode was produced by Michelle Aslam and edited by Liana Simstrom and Irene Noguchi.

特别感谢安德烈娅·德莱昂和梅根·普拉茨。

Special thanks to Andrea De Leon and Megan Pratz.

音频处理由科塔卡苏吉·切尔纳温完成。

Mastering by Kotakasugi Chernavin.

《周日故事》团队成员包括安德鲁·曼波、贾斯汀·严和珍妮·施密特。

The Sunday story team includes Andrew Mambo, Justine Yan, and Jenny Schmidt.

托马斯·柯川是我们的实习生。

Thomas Coltrane is our intern.

我是阿伊莎·罗斯科。

I'm Ayesha Roscoe.

《Up First》明日回归，为您带来开启一周所需的全部新闻。

Up First is back tomorrow with all the news you need to start your week.

在此之前，祝您周末愉快。

Until then, have a great rest of your weekend.

本信息来自全球资金应用Wise。

This message comes from Wise, the app for using money around the globe.

通过Wise管理资金，您将始终获得中间市场汇率，且无隐藏费用。

When you manage your money with Wise, you'll always get the mid market exchange rate with no hidden fees.

加入数百万用户行列，访问wise.com。

Join millions of customers and visit wise.com.

条款与条件适用。

Ts and cs apply.

政治风云每周变幻莫测。

There is so much happening in politics in any given week.

您可能需要帮助来理清全局。

You might need help putting it all in perspective.

当一周即将结束时，加入NPR政治播客团队的每周综述。

As your week draws to a close, join the NPR politics podcast team for our weekly roundup.

在这里，我们最优秀的政治记者聚焦本周重大事件，不仅解读其意义，更在30分钟内阐明它们对您的影响。

Here, our best political reporters zoom into the biggest stories of the week, not just what they mean, but what they mean for you all in under thirty minutes.

每周五收听NPR政治播客的《每周综述》。

Listen to the weekly roundup every Friday on the NPR politics podcast.

你关心世界上正在发生的事情。

You care about what's happening in the world.

通过NPR的《世界现状》播客保持信息畅通。

Stay informed with NPR's state of the world podcast.

只需几分钟，我们带你了解全球各地的故事。

In just a few minutes, we take you to stories around the globe.

你可能会听到世界冲突的最新进展，或是了解全球事件如何影响你咖啡的价格。

You might hear the latest developments in world conflicts or about what global events mean for the price of your coffee.

请收听NPR的《世界现状》播客。

Listen to the State of the World podcast from NPR.