伊朗战争扩大化，哈梅内伊继任者，中国斡旋中东战争

早上好。

Good morning.

这是你日常安排的第一部分吗？

Is up first part of your routine?

在最近的一篇评论中，用户Darbanza表示《Up First》的时长非常适合搭配早晨的咖啡。

In a recent review, user Darbanza said up first is the perfect length for morning coffee.

如果你认同，请前往你的播客应用为我们评分或留下评论。

If you agree, head over to your podcast app and leave us a rating or a review.

这有助于算法将《Up First》推荐给更多希望获取资讯的人。

It helps the algorithm show up first to more people looking to stay informed.

谢谢。

And thank you.

一些伊朗人正在逃离他们国家的战争。

Some Iranians are fleeing the war on their country.

我们的记者正在他们抵达土耳其时与他们见面。

Our correspondent is meeting them as they reach Turkey.

我们将了解人们目睹了什么，以及他们为了逃离蔓延至整个地区的战争而前往何处。

We'll hear what people are seeing and where they're going to escape the war that's spreading across the region.

我是史蒂夫·因斯科普，与米歇尔·马丁一起，这里是来自NPR新闻的《Up First》。

I'm Steve Inskeep with Michelle Martin, and this is Up First from NPR News.

伊朗推迟了为其最高领袖举行的悼念仪式，因为对首都德黑兰的袭击仍在继续。

Iran postponed the mourning ceremony for its supreme leader as attacks continue on the capital Tehran.

神职人员正在战争期间选择谁将领导伊朗，许多人的目光都聚焦在前领导人的儿子身上。

Clerics are choosing who will lead Iran in the middle of a war, and many eyes are on the former leader's son.

中国表示，将在北京召开两会、领导人制定年度优先事项之际，派遣特使前往中东。

And China says it's sending a special envoy to the Middle East as Beijing opens its two sessions meeting where leaders set priorities for the year.

中国是在试图扮演调解者角色，还是在保护其石油利益？

Is China trying to position itself as a mediator or protecting its oil interests?

请继续关注。

Stay with us.

我们将为您提供开启一天所需的新闻。

We'll give you news you need to start your day.

以色列和美国在战争的第六天继续对伊朗发动攻击。

Israel and The US are continuing to hit Iran on the sixth day of the war.

伊朗表示，美国将因昨天在印度洋击沉其一艘军舰而深感懊悔，这次袭击至少造成87人死亡。

Iran says The United States will, quote, bitterly regret torpedoing one of its warships yesterday in the Indian Ocean in an attack that killed at least 87 people.

以下是昨晚的一些最新动态。

Here's a few updates overnight.

以色列已追踪到多次来袭的导弹攻击。

Israel has tracked multiple incoming missile attacks.

昨晚至今天早晨，特拉维夫和耶路撒冷都响起了防空警报。

Air sirens blared overnight and into this morning in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem.

所有这些都发生在战争持续蔓延的背景下。

All this as the war continues to spread across the region.

以色列在黎巴嫩继续发动袭击，而伊朗的打击正在多个海湾国家引发动荡。

Israeli attacks continue in Lebanon, and Iranian strikes are causing turmoil in numerous Gulf countries.

NPR的露丝·谢尔克正在靠近伊朗边境的土耳其，她一直在与越境而来的伊朗人交谈，现在她与我们连线。

NPR's Ruth Sherlock is in Turkey close to the border with Iran where she's been speaking with Iranians coming across the border, and she's with us now.

露丝，你好。

Ruth, hello.

非常感谢你加入我们。

Thanks so much for joining us.

嗨。

Hi.

早上好。

Good morning.

正如我们所说，你一直在伊朗边境。

So as we said, you've been on the border with Iran.

告诉我们你看到了什么。

Tell us what you're seeing.

嗯，米歇尔，人们出来时都受到了创伤。

Well, Michelle, people are coming out traumatized.

你知道，伊朗不让西方记者进入该国，但通过与边境上的伊朗人交谈，我们真切地感受到了这场战争对平民造成的恐怖。

You know, Iran isn't letting Western journalists into the country, but speaking with Iranians here on the border, it really drives home the horror of this war for civilians.

每个人都太害怕了，不敢说出名字，因为在伊朗与西方媒体交谈会导致人们被捕。

Everyone was too scared to give their name as speaking with western media has gotten people arrested in Iran.

这位男子谈到了他逃离的经历。

This man talked about his journey out.

非常危险。

Very dangerous.

这是一次漂亮的轰炸。

It's a nice bombing.

非常危险。

Very dangerous.

声音有点小，但他提到，他在逃亡途中整晚都遭遇轰炸，伊朗有儿童被炸死。

It's a little hard to hear, but he's saying there was bombing through the night as he traveled, children killed in Iran.

他说他和家人逃到土耳其寻求庇护。

He says he and his family have come to Turkey for shelter.

我还采访了一位来自德黑兰的医生，她描述了在逃亡途中被浓烟包围、感受到炸弹在她车附近爆炸时冲击波的恐怖情景。

I also spoke with a doctor from Tehran who described the terror of being engulfed in smoke and feeling the backblast of a strike that hit close to her car on the journey out.

她说，她还目睹了这些袭击造成大量平民伤亡。

She says she's also witnessing many, many civilian casualties from these strikes.

你知道，这些是人口密集的社区，她说住宅楼也遭到了袭击。

You know, these are densely packed neighborhoods, and she says residential buildings are also getting hit.

她说，她一直在救治遭受严重伤势的平民。

She's been treating civilians with horrific injuries, she says.

伊朗卫生部记录显示，仅在这些天内就有926人丧生。

The Iranian Ministry of Health records nine hundred and twenty six people killed in just these few days.

尽管如此，我仍看到大量人员返回伊朗。

And despite all this, I saw a large number of people heading back into Iran.

该国的通信基本中断，许多人表示，他们无法忍受不知道家人是否安好的状态，宁愿冒着危险与家人在一起。

Communications are largely down in the country, and many people just said that they couldn't cope with not knowing if their families were okay and would rather be with them despite the danger.

哇。

Wow.

这很有趣。

That's interesting.

那么，告诉我们这些人回去后将面临什么情况。

So tell us more about what these people who are heading back are heading back into.

以色列和美国部队仍在对德黑兰及其他城市进行持续猛烈轰炸。

Well, there's continued heavy bombardment by Israeli and US forces on Tehran and other cities.

我们密切关注的另一件事是伊朗与伊拉克的西部边界。

And another thing we're watching closely is Iran's western border with Iraq.

土耳其和伊朗回应了有关伊朗库尔德民兵最近几天与美国商讨可能针对伊朗政权的袭击的报道。

Turkey and Iran are responding to reports that Iranian Kurdish militias have consulted with The United States in recent days about possible attacks against the Iranian regime.

土耳其表示正在密切监视。

Turkey is saying it's watching closely.

伊朗表示，它正在打击该地区所谓的分离主义民兵，称这些民兵意图对当地安全部队发动袭击。

Iran's saying it's targeting what it called separatist militias in that region that it said intended to act against security forces there.

明白了。

Okay.

它所说的分离主义民兵。

What it called separatist militias.

我明白了。

I I see.

那么，除了伊朗之外，人们仍然非常担心海湾地区会被卷入这场冲突吗？

So beyond Iran, there are also still major concerns about the Gulf region being drawn into the conflict?

没错。

That's right.

伊朗对海湾国家表示，它针对的是它们。

You know, Iran's saying to the Gulf countries that it strikes against them.

实际上，这些打击的目标是那里的美军基地和资产。

They're actually aimed at hitting US military bases and assets there.

但这些袭击对海湾国家的经济造成了严重打击，并使能源部门陷入瘫痪。

But the attacks are having this crippling effect on Gulf economies, and they've paralyzed the energy sector.

卡塔尔总理谢赫·穆罕默德·阿勒萨尼昨天对伊朗外长表示，卡塔尔更倾向于外交手段，但他称这种侵略行为不能置之不理。

Qatar's prime minister, Sheikh Mohamad El Thani, told Iran's foreign minister yesterday, Qatar prefers diplomacy, but this aggression, he said, cannot go unanswered.

与此同时，还有报道称科威特沿海地区发生了新的袭击，这意味着商业航运的危险区域正在扩大。

Meanwhile, there's also reports of a new attack off the coast of Kuwait, and this would be mean an expansion of the area where commercial shipping is also in danger.

这是位于伊朗边境附近的露丝·谢尔克。

That is Ruth Sherlock near Turkey's border with Iran.

露丝，非常感谢你。

Ruth, thank you so much.

非常感谢你。

Thank you so much.

我们还有一些关于两名美国陆军预备役人员在周日伊朗无人机袭击中丧生的信息。

And we have some information about two more US army reservists killed in Sunday's Iranian drone strike.

他们是来自加利福尼亚州萨克拉门托的54岁首席 WARRANT OFFICER 罗伯特·马尔赞，以及来自爱荷华州瓦乌克的45岁少校杰弗里·奥布莱恩。

54 year old chief warrant officer Robert Marzan of Sacramento, California, and 45 year old major Jeffrey O'Brien of Waukee, Iowa.

他们是周六在科威特袭击中丧生的六名美军人员中的两位。

They are among six US service members killed in the attack in Kuwait.

在伊朗，一个由宗教学者组成的委员会正在决定谁将接替在战争初期遭以色列空袭身亡的阿里·哈梅内伊大阿亚图拉。

In Iran, a panel of clerics is deciding who will replace Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed by an Israeli airstrike at the start of the war.

无论谁被选中，都将坐上一个复杂的治理体系的顶端。

Whoever is chosen will sit atop a complicated governing system.

有一位民选总统。

There's an elected president.

有一个立法机构。

There's a legislature.

还有许多安全机构、一支正规军队，以及一支名为革命卫队的独立军队。

There's a lot of security agencies, a regular army, and a whole separate army called the revolutionary guard.

但如果你把这一体系画成一张图表，所有的权力线最终都会汇聚到那位最高领袖身上。

But if you put that government on a chart, all the lines of power ultimately would run back to that supreme leader.

现在我们邀请美国国家公共电台国际事务记者杰基·诺瑟姆来为我们详细介绍这一情况。

NPR international affairs correspondent Jackie Northam is with us now to tell us more about this.

杰基，早上好。

Jackie, good morning to you.

早上好，米歇尔。

Morning, Michelle.

那么，有哪些人

So who are some of

伊朗最高领袖的热门人选有哪些？

the front runners for supreme leader of Iran?

主要有四位候选人，由88名宗教学者组成的委员会将进行审议，由于以色列轰炸了他们原定开会的建筑，该委员会不得不在线上召开会议。

Well, there are four main front runners that the, 88 member panel of clerics will consider, and the panel is having to meet virtually because the Israelis bombed the building where they were supposed to meet.

无论如何，候选人背景相当多元。

Anyway, there's quite a mix.

基本上，他们有两条主要路径可选。

There are basically two main routes they can take.

首先是非世袭路线，比如阿里·拉伊扎·阿拉菲，他是一位在伊朗宗教体系中极具影响力的宗教学者，被视为强硬派。

First, the nondynastic route, we can call it, with Ali Raizah Arafi, and he's a cleric, very prominent in Iran's religious establishment, and considered a hardliner.

还有哈桑·鲁哈尼，一位温和派，曾任伊朗总统。

There's also Hassan Rouhani, a moderate and former president of Iran.

然后是家族路线，即哈桑·霍梅尼，他是伊斯兰共和国创始人霍梅尼大阿亚图拉的孙子，被视为相对温和的人物。

And then we have the family route where there is Hassan Khomeini, who's the grandson of the founding father of the Islamic Republic, Ayatollah Khomeini, and he's seen as a relative moderate.

最后，米歇尔，还有穆罕默德·埃尔巴德·哈马德·埃尔巴德，他是哈马德·埃尔巴德大阿亚图拉56岁的儿子，被认为是接任伊朗下一任最高领袖的头号候选人。

Finally, Michelle, there's Mohamad ElBard Khamad ElBard, and he is the 56 year old son of Ayatollah Khamad ElBard, and he's considered the leading contender to become Iran's next supreme leader.

那么，你能再多讲讲他吗？

So so tell us more about him, if you would.

有人告诉我，穆罕默德·哈勒米尼是个不太为人所知的人物，一直处在幕后。

Mohamad Khalmenei has been described to me as kind of an unknown quantity, someone in the background.

他被视为一名强硬派，与2009年伊朗对抗议者实施的暴力镇压有密切关联。

He is considered a hardliner who's closely associated with a violent crackdown on protesters in Iran in 2009.

现在，穆罕默德拥有重要的人脉。

Now Mohamad important connections.

在所有候选人中，他是与强大的伊斯兰革命卫队（IRGC）关系最密切的一个。

Of all the candidates, he's the one who is closest to the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the IRGC.

他还在已故父亲的办公室里人脉广泛，而这两大势力是政权最重要的支柱。

He's also well connected in his late father's office, and these are the two most important parts of the regime.

如果他们支持他，他成为伊朗下一任领导人的可能性就很大。

If they support him, there's a good chance he'll be Iran's next leader.

那么，如果穆罕默德·哈勒米尼被选中，这是否意味着政权即使在战争持续期间，也希望建立延续性？

So if Mohamad Khalemani is chosen, will that be seen as a signal that the regime wants continuity, even as this war is ongoing?

会的。

It would.

莫赫·西藏将被视为维持现状的候选人。

Moch Tibet would be seen as a status quo candidate.

但你知道，我接触过的分析人士表示，当前的体制难以持续。

But, you know, analysts I spoke with say the current system can't be sustained.

伊朗因战争和大规模抗议而被削弱。

Iran is weakened from war and widespread protests.

其经济遭受重创，若想获得合法性，就必须进行变革。

Its economy is battered, and it needs to transform if it wants to have legitimacy.

另一点是，下一任最高领袖所拥有的权力，将不及哈马德·埃尔巴尔迪西在近四十年任期中的权力。

The other thing is the next supreme leader will not wield as much power as Khamad ElBardicy during his nearly forty years in power.

革命卫队在伊朗经济和军事领域已获得巨大权力。

The revolutionary guards have gained enormous power over Iran's economy and its military.

大西洋理事会斯考克罗夫特中东安全倡议主任乔纳森·帕尼科夫表示，新任最高领袖将对革命卫队保持顺从。

Jonathan Panikoff, director of the Atlantic Council's Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative, says a new supreme leader will be deferential to the revolutionary guards.

他就是他。

Here he is.

我们最终会陷入一种局面：革命卫队的高级官员实际上掌控了国家，这更接近于一种披着宗教最高领袖外衣的军事独裁，而不是像哈梅内伊那样真正掌握大权、拥有最终决定权的最高领袖。

Where we end up in a situation in which its senior officials from the guards fundamentally running the country, and we end up in what's closer to a military dictatorship with a fig leaf to a religious supreme leader than we do with a supreme leader like Ayatollah Khamenei who's actually calling the shots and and has the final word.

然而，你知道，当已故的哈梅内伊被选为最高领袖时，人们认为他软弱且容易操控。

And yet, you know, when the late Ayatollah Khamenei was chosen as supreme leader, he was considered weak and pliable.

但他后来证明自己精明而冷酷，最终成为中东最有权势的领导人之一。

But, you know, he proved to be cunning and ruthless and went on to become one of the most powerful leaders in The Middle East.

这是美国国家公共电台国际事务记者杰基·诺斯。

That is NPR International Affairs correspondent Jackie North.

杰基，谢谢你。

Jackie, thank you.

谢谢。

Thank you.

随着美国和以色列对伊朗的战争扩大，中国正通过一次高调的外交行动介入这场危机。

As The US Israeli war with Iran expands, China is stepping into the crisis with a high profile diplomatic move.

北京正派遣一名特使前往中东进行调解。

Beijing is sending a special envoy to The Middle East to help mediate.

以下是来自北京的 NPR 中国事务记者 Jennifer Pak 的最新报道。

Joined by NPR's China correspondent, Jennifer Pak, in Beijing for the latest.

Jennifer，早上好。

Jennifer, good morning.

早上好。

Good morning.

您能否先告诉我们这位特使是谁，以及我们对他任务的了解？

Could you just start by telling us who this envoy is and what we know about his assignment?

中国今天公布了将派往中东的特使人选。

Well, China today named the envoy it's sending to The Middle East.

他的名字是翟隽，自2019年以来一直担任该地区的特使。

His name is Ziadjun, and he's been serving as an envoy to the region since 2019.

但外交部并未提供更多细节，也没有明确说明他将访问哪些国家。

But the foreign ministry didn't provide more details or say specifically which countries he would be visiting.

中国介入现在有两个原因。

Now there are two reasons why China is stepping in.

首先是战略上的。

The first is strategic.

中国在中东有经济利益。

China has economic interests in the Middle East.

它从该地区获取部分石油供应。

It gets part of its oil supply from the region.

以下是新加坡国立大学的中国政治专家张英冲。

Here's a Chinese politics expert at the National University of Singapore, Ziad Yingchong.

他们与伊朗政府有着长期的关系。

They have this long standing relationship with the Iranian government.

他们在伊朗投入了大量资金。

They've invested a lot in Iran.

这一安排的一部分涉及从伊朗获取石油和天然气。

Part of that arrangement has to do with getting oil and gas out of Iran.

而这并不仅仅来自伊朗。

And that's not just from Iran.

他说，中国还从该地区的其他国家购买石油和天然气，而现在冲突正在影响这一供应。

China also buys oil and gas from the rest of the region, he says, and now the conflict is affecting that supply.

第二个原因是外交上的。

The second reason is a diplomatic one.

这是一个真正让中国把自己塑造成‘和平力量’的机会。

This is a real opportunity for China to portray itself as a, quote, force for peace.

中国一直敦促各方停止军事行动，重返谈判桌。

It has been urging all sides to stop military operations and return to the negotiating table.

我们是否知道，中国与伊朗的合作是否延伸到了军事援助？

Do we have any sense of whether that cooperation with Iran extends to military assistance?

到目前为止，还没有。

So far, no.

这确实引发了一个问题：其他国家是否会认为，与中国建立战略伙伴关系是值得的，尽管中国并不提供安全保障？

And it does raise the question of whether other countries would think it's worthwhile to enter into a strategic partnership with China given that it doesn't extend to security protection.

分析师钟给出了不同的解读。

Analyst, Chong, offers a different interpretation.

中国正在努力摸索如何重新成为大国，在当代背景下成为大国。

China is trying to feel its way around being a great power again, a great power in the contemporary period.

他说，关键问题是这位特使究竟能够切实达成什么成果。

The big question he says is what this envoy can realistically achieve.

鉴于中国在这场冲突中并非中立，中国与伊朗的立场远比与美国或以色列更接近。

Given that China is not impartial in this, China is way more closely aligned with Iran than with either The US or Israel.

珍妮弗，北京如何理解过去几天的事件？

And, Jennifer, how is Beijing making sense of the events of the last few days?

显然，北京对中东及其他地区的局势感到不安。

Well, Beijing is clearly uncomfortable with what's happening in The Middle East and elsewhere.

例如，今年早些时候的委内瑞拉。

For example, Venezuela earlier this year.

尤其是从北京的角度来看，特朗普政府一直在公开谈论政权更迭，并单方面采取行动推翻政治领导人。

Especially since from Beijing's standpoint, the Trump administration has been freely talking about regime change and taking out political leaders unilaterally.

这对中国人来说是一个信号，表明世界正变得更加动荡。

It's a sign for the Chinese that the world is getting more volatile.

因此，在今天早上一场重要的政治会议上，总理李强谈到了外部挑战。

So at an important political meeting just this morning, premier Li Chang talked about external challenges.

他说，多边主义和自由贸易正面临严重威胁。

He says multilateralism and free trade are under severe threat.

对中国而言，这种不确定性来得不是时候。

For China, this uncertainty is coming at a bad time.

中国的经济增长已降至数十年来的最低水平，今天早上，李强还为中国设定了年增长率在4.5%至5%之间的目标。

Its economic growth is at its lowest in decades, and this morning, Chang also set a goal for China's annual growth of four and a half to 5%.

因此，中国显然正在让民众为未来更缓慢的增长和更多不确定性做好准备。

So China is clearly preparing its population for slower growth and more uncertainty ahead.

那么，中国如何为这种不确定性做准备呢？

So how is China preparing for this uncertainty?

中国表示，它将继续投资并现代化其军事力量，以实现威慑。

Well, China says it will continue to invest and modernize its military for deterrence.

与去年相比，中国的国防预算增加了7%。

It has increased its defense budget by 7% compared to last year.

此外，中国正在加大对工业制造和科技创新的投入。

Also, China is doubling down on industrial manufacturing and tech innovation.

所有这些措施都是为了实现自力更生，以便当美国对美国高科技产品实施出口管制时，中国受到的冲击会小一些。

All of this is about self reliance so that when The US, say, imposes export controls on American high-tech products, China might hurt less.

这是NPR驻北京的珍妮弗·皮克的报道。

That is NPR's Jennifer Peck in Beijing.

珍妮弗，谢谢你。

Jennifer, thank you.

谢谢。

Thank you.

以上是3月5日星期四的全部内容。

And that's Up for Thursday, March 5.

我是米歇尔·马丁。

I'm Michelle Martin.

我是史蒂夫·因斯科普。

And I'm Steve Inskeep.

今天的《Up First》由汉娜·布洛赫、米格尔·马西亚斯、詹姆斯·海德、蒂娜·克拉贾、穆罕默德·埃尔巴迪西和爱丽丝·厄尔弗勒编辑。

Today's Up First was edited by Hannah Bloch, Miguel Macias, James Hider, Tina Kraja, Mohamad ElBardicy, and Alice Woelfle.

节目由齐亚德·布赫和本·亚伯拉罕制作。

It was produced by Ziad Buchh and Ben Abrams.

我们的制片人是克里斯托弗·托马斯。

Our director is Christopher Thomas.

我们得到尼莎·海恩斯的工程支持，技术总监是卡莉·斯特兰奇。

We get engineering support from Nisha Haines, and our technical director is Carly Strange.

嗨，卡莉。

Hi there, Carly.

我们的副执行制片人是凯莉·狄更斯。

Our deputy executive producer is Kelly Dickens.

明天再会。

Join us tomorrow.