特朗普的伊朗终局、战争经济、最高法院出生公民权案

特朗普总统表示，美国在伊朗的任务即将结束。

President Trump says The US mission in Iran is almost over.

我只有一个目标。

I had one goal.

他们将不会拥有核武器，而这一目标已经实现。

They will have no nuclear weapon, and that goal has been attained.

他们不会拥有核武器。

They will not have nuclear weapons.

他说开启霍尔木兹海峡

He says opening the Strait Of Hormuz

是别人的问题。

is someone else's problem.

我是米歇尔·马丁。

I'm Michelle Martin.

这是莱拉·法瑞尔，这里是NPR新闻的《今日要闻》。

That's Leila Farrell, and this is Up First from NPR News.

伊朗有效关闭霍尔木兹海峡，导致全球汽油价格飙升。

Iran's effective closure of the Strait Of Hormuz has sent global gas prices soaring.

这是一个全球市场，供需只需稍有波动，就会突然陷入全球性短缺。

It's all a global market, and it doesn't take that much to tip supply and demand into a place where suddenly we're in a global deficit.

美国的卡车司机、农民和酿酒商都感受到了战争对自身利润的连锁影响。

US truck drivers, farmers, and brewers are all feeling the ripple effects of the war on their bottom line.

特朗普总统计划出席最高法院的听证会。

And president Trump plans to attend arguments at the Supreme Court.

历史上从未有在任总统这样做过。

A sitting president has never done that before.

特朗普试图终止出生公民权。

Trump's trying to end birthright citizenship.

法院将听取哪些论点？

What arguments will a court hear?

请继续关注我们。

Stay with us.

我们将为您提供开启一天所需的新闻。

We'll give you the news you need to start your day.

你有没有想过，能否预测未来？

Do you ever wish you could predict the future?

一些科学家每年都在尝试预测樱花每年春天何时盛开。

Well, some scientists try to do that every year, forecasting when cherry blossom trees will bloom each spring.

这几乎是凭空猜测，但其中也涉及一些科学依据。

It's a wild guess, but there is some science involved in that.

盛花期的预测至关重要，关系到旅游业、气候变化模型等多个方面。

And there is a lot riding on the peak bloom forecast, tourism, climate change models, and more.

请在NPR应用上或您收听播客的平台收听短波，了解科学家如何预测未来。

Listen to shortwave on the NPR app or wherever you get your podcast to hear how scientists are predicting the future.

特朗普总统表示，美国将在两到三周内撤离伊朗，声称他自始至终只有一个目标，尽管自五周前美国对伊朗发动战争以来，他已经多次重复过其他目标。

President Trump says The US will leave Iran in two to three weeks declaring he's only ever had one goal in mind despite repeating many others since the start of The US Israel War on Iran five weeks ago.

我只有一个目标。

I had one goal.

他们将不会拥有核武器，这一目标已经实现。

They will have no nuclear weapon, and that goal has been attained.

他们不会拥有核武器。

They will not have nuclear weapons.

目前尚不清楚这一说法的证据是什么，但他还表示，那些需要通过霍尔木兹海峡运输石油的国家——伊朗在战争初期实际上关闭了该海峡——将不得不自己去获取石油。

It is unclear what the evidence is of that, but he's also saying countries who need oil to pass through the Strait Of Hormuz, which Iran effectively shut down at the start of the war, will have to go and get it themselves.

特朗普将于今晚东部时间晚上9点向全国发表讲话。

Trump will address the nation at 9PM eastern time tonight.

现在为您带来最新消息的是NPR的国家政治记者玛拉·利松。

Here with the latest is NPR's national political correspondent, Mara Liasson.

早上好，玛拉。

Good morning, Mara.

早上好。

Good morning.

好的。

Okay.

特朗普总统周一曾威胁，如果伊朗不立即开放霍尔木兹海峡供商业通行，就要轰炸民用基础设施，但现在他却说他不在乎了？

President Trump on Monday threatened to bomb civilian infrastructure if Iran didn't immediately open the Strait Of Hormuz for business, but now he's saying he doesn't care?

没错。

That's right.

这是特朗普迄今为止最大的转向。

This is the biggest swivel that Trump has made so far.

他此前对伊朗发出了一系列非常严厉的威胁。

He has made a series of very harsh threats against Iran.

不到36小时前，他还说要轰炸民用设施、发电厂和海水淡化厂，这些行动可能违反《日内瓦公约》。

Less than thirty six hours ago, he said he would bomb civilian sites, electricity plants, desalinization plants that might have gone against the Geneva Convention.

但他当时表示，如果霍尔木兹海峡不尽快开放，这些行动就会发生。

But he said if the Strait Of Hormuz didn't open up shortly, that would happen.

但现在，这突然不再是目标了。

Now all of a sudden, it's no longer a goal.

他不在乎了。

He doesn't care.

他想甩手不管，让别人去处理这件事。

He's washing his hands of this, and someone else can deal with it.

这是他昨天说的话。

Here's what he said yesterday.

我们很快就要离开了。

We'll be leaving very soon.

如果法国或其他国家想要获取石油或天然气，他们会通过海峡和霍尔木兹海峡前往。

And if France or some other country wants to get oil or gas, they'll go up through the Strait and the Hormuz Strait.

他们会直接前往那里，并自行应对。

They'll go right up there, and they'll be able to fend for themselves.

我认为实际上会非常安全，但我们与此无关。

I think it'll be very safe, actually, but we have nothing to do with that.

海峡会发生什么，我们不会参与任何事。

What happens to the Strait, we're not gonna have anything to do with.

因此，在寻找脱身之策时，他似乎对伊朗控制霍尔木兹海峡持默许态度，这无疑是他迄今为止最大的逆转之一。

So in his search for an off ramp, he seems to be okay with Iran controlling the Strait Of Hormuz, and this certainly is one of the biggest reversals that he's made so far.

好的。

Okay.

但如果他不在乎，为什么他之前要反复谈论这件事，还做出如此激烈的威胁？

But if he doesn't care about it, why was he talking about it so much and making these incredible threats?

这是个好问题。

That's a good question.

霍尔木兹海峡真的非常重要。

The Strait is really important.

全球约五分之一的石油通过该海峡运输。

About one fifth of the world's oil passes through it.

伊朗现在确实对全球市场形成了钳制。

Iran does have a stranglehold on global markets now.

所以，即使唐纳德·特朗普现在试图辩称每加仑4美元的油价与我们无关，但实际上并非如此，因为油价是全球统一设定的。

So even if Donald Trump is now trying to argue that the $4 a gallon of gas doesn't affect us, it actually does because oil prices are set globally.

好的。

Okay.

说到四美元一加仑的汽油，他对这个怎么说？

So speaking of the $4 gas, what did he say about that?

他说，答案很简单。

Well, he said the answer was simple.

我只要离开伊朗，我们很快就会这么做，然后他们就会土崩瓦解。

All I have to do is leave Iran, and we'll be doing that very soon, and they'll become tumbling down.

也许这是对的，但油价上涨可能会产生持久影响，尤其是伊朗现在对通过海峡的船只收取高额费用，并继续控制着海峡。

And maybe that's right, but maybe the price hikes will have lasting effects, especially with Iran now charging big fees to allow ships through the strait and continuing to control it.

总统也开始以不同的方式谈论伊朗的政权更迭，这原本似乎是主要目标之一。

The president has also started to talk differently about regime change in Iran, which seemed to be one of the main goals originally.

他现在怎么说？

What's he saying now?

唐纳德·特朗普政治生涯的一个特点是，他通过反复谈论某件事来创造自己的现实，现在他说政权更迭已经完成，因为政权高层换了人，其他人被美国和以色列杀死了。

One of the hallmarks of Donald Trump's political career is that he creates his own reality by talking about something over and over again, and he's now saying that regime change has been accomplished because there are different people at the top of the regime, the others being killed by The US and Israel.

是的，政权的领导人确实已经更换了。

And, yes, the leaders of the regime have changed.

他说得对。

He's right about that.

但至于伊朗政权本身是否变得不那么反美，是否不再那么热衷于给美国及其全球盟友制造混乱，没有任何证据表明这一点。

But whether the regime itself has become any less anti American, any less eager to cause havoc for The US and its allies around the world, there's no evidence of that.

但这正是特朗普所谓‘任务完成’的一部分：他说我们实现了政权更迭，现在统治伊朗的人是更温和、更友善、更容易打交道的人。

But this is part of Trump's mission accomplished, saying we have regime change, and now the people running Iran are more moderate, nicer people who are easier to work with.

那么这一切意味着什么？

So what does this all amount to?

我认为总统正在寻找一个退出的途径。

I think the president is looking for an off ramp.

他想宣称自己已经实现了目标。

He wants to say that he accomplished his objectives.

看起来他已经达到了他的政治痛苦阈值，也就是每加仑4美元的汽油价格。

It looks like he's reached his political pain threshold, which is $4 a gallon of gas.

这可能是他所谓的这次行动的终点，但他的政治目标——包括确保伊朗永远不拥有核武器——并没有任何证据表明已经实现，美国和以色列可能不得不一次又一次地重复这种做法。

And this might be the end game of this particular excursion as he likes to call it, but his political goals, including, making sure Iran never has a nuclear weapon, there's no evidence that they have been met, and it's possible that The US and Israel will have to do this kind of thing again and again and again.

这是NPR的玛拉·利松。

That's NPR's Mara Liasson.

谢谢你，玛拉。

Thank you, Mara.

不客气。

You're welcome.

美国和以色列对伊朗的战争已使汽油价格升至三年半以来的最高水平。

The US and Israeli war with Iran has pushed gasoline prices to their highest level in more than three and a half years.

但每加仑4美元的油价只是对经济影响中最明显的表现。

But $4 a gallon gas is only the most visible sign impact on the economy.

卡车司机、农民和潜在的雇主都在感受到连锁反应。

Truck drivers, farmers, and would be employers are all feeling the ripple effects.

根据战争持续时间的长短，这场战争可能成为拖累美国及全球经济的更大因素。

Depending on how long it continues, the war could become a bigger drag on the economy in The US and around the world.

现在有请NPR的斯科特·霍斯利加入我们，讨论这一问题。

NPR's Scott Horsley joins us now to talk about this.

早上好。

Good morning.

早上好，莉莉。

Good morning, Lily.

那么，跟我们说说这场战争如何已经影响到人们的钱包吧。

So tell us about some of the ways the war is already being felt in people's pocketbooks.

显然，最近加过油的车主都看到了汽油价格的急剧上涨。

Obviously, anyone who's filled up a car or truck lately has seen the sharp jump in gasoline prices.

柴油价格涨得更多。

Diesel prices are up even more.

自战争爆发以来，宾夕法尼亚州农民里克·特勒斯在为拖拉机加油上的花费大幅增加。

It's costing Pennsylvania farmer Rick Telles a lot more to fuel his tractor since the war began.

昨天我联系他时，特勒斯告诉我，他还担心化肥价格的上涨。

When I caught up with him yesterday, Telles told me he's also worried about the rising cost of fertilizer.

实际上，现在正是给我的干草田施氮肥的时候。

Well, it's that time of year actually putting nitrogen fertilizer on my hay fields.

这种化肥战前每吨售价500美元，现在却涨到了850美元。

Tell us this fertilizer that was selling for $500 a ton before the war now cost as much as $850.

因此，他不得不减少用量，即使这可能导致今年玉米和大豆的产量下降。

So he's been forced to cut back even if that might mean coaxing fewer bushels of corn and soybeans out of the ground this year.

我无法把这些增加的成本转嫁出去。

I can't pass those added costs on.

我只能自己全部承担。

It's just I basically have to eat it all.

你知道，近年来由于丰收和特朗普总统的贸易政策导致出口减少，粮食价格一直低迷。

You know, grain prices have been really depressed in recent years, thanks to bumper crops and president Trump's trade policies, which have cut into exports.

所以农民们正面临巨大压力。

So farmers are really getting squeezed.

他们的成本在上升，但在收获时节，却无法保证能收回这些投入。

Their costs are going up, but when it comes to harvest time, there's no guarantee they'll earn that money back.

法院记录显示，去年农业破产案件增加了46%，而战争让这些挑战变得更加严峻。

Court records show farm bankruptcies jumped 46% last year, and the war only makes those challenges tougher.

我们还在哪些地方看到战时价格上涨？

Where else are we seeing wartime price hikes?

最终，更高的柴油价格可能会推高所有通过卡车或铁路运输的商品的成本。

Well, ultimately, those higher diesel fuel prices could raise the cost of everything that gets moved around the country by truck or rail.

经济合作与发展组织预测，这场战争将使美国的通胀率再次回升至4%以上。

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development projects the war will push inflation in The US back above 4%.

甚至一包六瓶的苏打水或啤酒也可能涨价。

Even a six pack of soda pop or beer could see a price hike.

你知道，上周末，伊朗袭击了巴林和阿联酋的铝制品工厂。

You know, over the weekend, Iran attacked aluminum facilities in Bahrain and The UAE.

啤酒酿造协会主席巴特·沃森表示，这推高了铝制易拉罐的价格。

And Bart Watson, who's president of the Brewers Association, says that's pushing up the price of aluminum cans.

这都是一个全球市场，只需一点变动就能让供需失衡，导致全球性短缺，从而推高酿酒商乃至消费者的成本。

It's all a global market, and it doesn't take that much to tip supply and demand into a place where suddenly we're in a global deficit, and that means increasing prices for brewers and eventually consumers.

沃森表示，目前一些酿酒商正在自行承担这些更高的铝材成本，但可能迟早他们不得不将涨价转嫁给消费者。

Watson says for now, some brewers are absorbing those higher aluminum costs, but there may come a point where they have to pass the increase along.

在美國和以色列發動這場戰爭之前，美國就業市場已經出現了一些裂痕。

Now The US job market was already showing some cracks before The US and Israel started this war.

這場戰鬥可能會如何影響就業市場？

How is that likely to be affected by the fighting?

是的。

Yeah.

雇主們本來就對招聘員工持謹慎態度。

Employers were already skittish about adding workers.

再加上能源價格的不確定性以及消費者將不得不花費多少錢，企業可能會變得更加謹慎。

Add in the uncertainty that surrounds energy prices and how much money consumers are gonna have to spend, and businesses are likely to get even more cautious.

你知道嗎，昨天勞工部表示，戰爭開始前的二月招聘率是自疫情初期以來最低的。

You know, yesterday, the Labor Department said the hiring rate in February before the war began was the lowest since the early months of the pandemic.

我們將在週五獲得三月就業市場更完整的數據。

We will get a more complete look at the March job market on Friday.

儘管有這些情況，昨天股市卻大幅上漲。

Despite all this, the stock market soared yesterday.

这是怎么回事？

What's that about?

是的。

Yeah.

投资者们对特朗普总统及其伊朗 counterparts 发出的信号感到鼓舞，似乎战争可能通过谈判结束。

Investors were cheered by signs from both president Trump and his Iranian counterpart that maybe a negotiated end of the war is in the offing.

这引发了华尔街的反弹行情。

That sparked a relief rally on Wall Street.

昨天道琼斯指数上涨了1100多点。

The Dow gained more than 1,100 points yesterday.

但这并不是投资者第一次因可能的停火而庆祝，结果却发现他们过于乐观了。

But this is not the first time investors have celebrated a possible truce only to find out that they were premature.

所以我们将看看这次的乐观情绪是否合理。

So we will see if the optimism is warranted this time.

即使战斗真的结束，分析师表示，要消除这场战争造成的损害并降低冲突推高的价格，可能还需要一些时间。

Even when the fighting does end, analysts say it may take some time to unwind the damage that's been done by this war and bring down the prices that the conflict has pushed up.

感谢NPR的斯科特·霍斯利一如既往的报道。

NPR's Scott Horsley, thank you for your reporting as always.

不客气。

You're welcome.

特朗普总统今天上午将前往最高法院。

President Trump is scheduled to be at the Supreme Court this morning.

历史上从未有在任总统出席过最高法院的口头辩论。

A sitting president has never attended oral arguments at the court before.

大法官们正在审理特朗普多次提及的一起案件。

The justices are hearing a case Trump has talked about a lot.

这起案件挑战了一项宪法条款，该条款一个多世纪以来一直被解释为保障任何在美国出生的孩子获得美国公民身份。

It's his challenge to a constitutional provision that has been interpreted for more than a century to guarantee American citizenship to every child born in The United States.

现在我们有NPR法律事务记者尼娜·托滕伯格来为我们详细介绍此事。

NPR legal affairs correspondent Nina Totenberg is here now to tell us more about it.

早上好，尼娜。

Good morning, Nina.

早上好。

Good morning.

给我们介绍一下这个案子。

So set this case up for us.

特朗普总统长期以来一直认为，宪法并不保障出生公民权。

President Trump has long maintained that the constitution does not guarantee birthright citizenship.

因此，在他第二任期的第一天，他发布了一项行政命令，禁止任何父母非法入境或持临时但长期签证合法居住和工作的婴儿自动获得美国公民身份。

So on day one of his second term, he issued an executive order barring automatic citizenship for any baby born in The US whose parents entered the country illegally or who are living and working here legally on temporary but often long term visas.

正如你所知，我们是世界上唯一一个实行出生公民权的国家，这简直太荒谬了。

We're the only country in the world that does this with birthright, as you know, and it's just absolutely ridiculous.

让我直接切入这个话题。

Well, let me just jump right in on this.

我们真的是唯一一个这样做的国家吗？

Are we the only country that does this?

这是真的吗？

Is that true?

不是。

No.

至少有33个国家

There are at least 33 countries

拥有

that

出生公民权。

have birthright citizenship.

我们总是听到关于宪法原意的说法。

So we're always hearing about the original meaning of the constitution.

所以让我们先回到18世纪末的建国时期。

So let's go to the founding in the late seventeen hundreds first.

那时候有出生公民权吗？

Did we have birthright citizenship then?

当时并没有明确定义公民身份，但我与弗吉尼亚大学教授阿曼达·弗罗斯特讨论过这个问题，她说当时的殖民者非常支持移民。

Citizenship wasn't actually defined then, but University of Virginia professor Amanda Frost, who I talked to about this, says the colonists were very pro immigrant.

他们希望 populate 这片几乎空旷的大陆。

They wanted to populate this mostly empty continent.

事实上，《独立宣言》中列出的对国王的控诉之一，就是他的政策在阻碍移民。

In fact, the declaration of independence, one of the list of complaints against the king was that his policies were discouraging immigration.

然而，出生公民权直到内战后才被写入宪法，当时国会和超过四分之三的州通过了一项宪法修正案，以宽泛的条款定义了公民身份。

Birthright didn't make it into the constitution, however, until after the civil war when congress and more than three quarters of the states passed a constitutional amendment that defined citizenship in broad terms.

它规定：'所有在美国出生或归化并受其管辖的人，都是美国公民。'

And it says, quote, all persons born or naturalized in The United States and subject to the jurisdiction thereof are citizens of The United States.

特朗普总统当然坚持认为，这项修正案仅旨在确保前奴隶及其子女的公民身份。

President Trump, of course, maintains that the amendment was only meant to ensure citizenship for former slaves and their children.

然而，这种解释在过去160年里从未被美国法院或法律规范所接受。

That interpretation, however, has not been embraced by the courts or the legal norms of this country for the last hundred and sixty years.

那么，那些反对特朗普的人所依赖的关键判例是什么？

So is there a key precedent that the people who disagree with Trump are relying on?

最常被引用的判例是最高法院关于黄某的裁决，他于1873年出生于旧金山的中国移民家庭。

Well, the most often cited precedent is a Supreme Court decision involving Wong Kim Ark, who was born to Chinese immigrants in San Francisco in 1873.

他的父母最终回到了中国，但他在探望他们后，因被认定不是公民而被拒绝入境美国。

His parents would eventually go back to China, but after he visited them there, he was denied entry into The United States on grounds that he was not a citizen.

他对此决定提出上诉，并以六票对两票在最高法院胜诉。

He challenged the denial and won in the Supreme Court by a vote of six to two.

法院表示，因为他出生在美国，所以他就是美国公民。

The court said that because he was born in The US, he was a citizen of The US.

但特朗普政府援引了最高法院在黄案中的措辞，该措辞似乎假设其父母在黄出生时合法居留，因为他们当时已建立了永久住所，尽管之后他们返回了中国。

But the Trump administration points to the court's language in the Wong case, language that seems to assume the parents were legally in the country because they had, at the time of Huang's birth, established a permanent residence even though they subsequently returned to China.

而为了反驳这一观点，美国公民自由联盟的塞西莉亚·王今天将在最高法院表示，起草第十四修正案的那些人有意将公民身份自动赋予孩子，而非父母。

And countering that argument, the ACLU's Cecilia Wang will tell the Supreme Court today that the men who wrote the fourteenth amendment deliberately chose to confer automatic citizenship on the child, not the parent.

这一理念可以追溯到建国之初，即在美国，我们不会因为父母的过错而惩罚孩子，而是让一切重新开始。

And the idea that actually goes back to the founding that in America, we do not punish children for the sins of their fathers, but instead, wipe the slate clean.

当你在这个国家出生时，我们所有人都是同样的美国人。

When you're born in this country, we're all Americans all the same.

正如我经常说的，我们预计将在六月底做出裁决。

And as I often say, we expect a decision by late June.

这是NPR法律事务记者尼娜·托滕伯格。

That is NPR legal affairs correspondent Nina Totenberg.

尼娜，谢谢你。

Nina, thank you.

谢谢。

Thank you.

以上是周三，4月1日的《Up First》节目。

And that's Up First for Wednesday, April 1.

我是莱拉·沃尔登。

I'm Leila Walden.

我是米歇尔·马丁。

And I'm Michelle Martin.

今天《Up First》的编辑是丽贝卡·梅茨勒、拉斐尔·纳姆、克里希纳德夫·卡拉穆尔、穆罕默德·埃尔巴迪西和HJ Mai。

Today's episode of Up First was edited by Rebekah Metzler, Rafael Nam, Krishnadev Calamur, Mohamad ElBardicy, and HJ Mai.

本节目由齐亚德·布赫和阿瓦·普卡奇制作。

It was produced by Ziad Buchh and Ava Pukatch.

我们的总监是克里斯托弗·托马斯。

Our director is Christopher Thomas.

我们得到米沙·海尼斯的工程支持。

We get engineering support from Misha Highness.

我们的技术总监是卡莉·斯特兰奇，监制是迈克尔·利普金。

Our technical director is Carleigh Strange, and our supervising producer is Michael Lipkin.

希望明天还能与您再见。

We hope you'll join us again tomorrow.