第六季第34集：粮食政策：变化世界中的经验与优先事项

我们看到从1970年代中期到大约十年前这四十年间，粮食安全取得了前所未有的改善，贫困也大幅减少。但过去十年间，我们也目睹了这一趋势的逆转。

We see four decades really from the middle of the 1970s until about a decade ago of unprecedented improvements in food security, reductions in poverty. What we also see in the last decade has been seen a reversal of that.

欢迎收听Vox Dev Talks，我是蒂姆·菲利普斯。2025年，国际粮食政策研究所将迎来成立50周年，其发布的《2025全球粮食政策报告》堪称重磅。这份题为《变化世界中的经验与优先事项》的报告近600页，梳理了过去五十年来全球粮食体系的发展历程，既总结了现存挑战，也指出要建立健康可持续的粮食体系就必须持续变革。

Welcome to Vox Dev Talks. My name is Tim Phillips. In 2025, the International Food Policy Research Institute is 50 years old, and its 2025 global food policy report is a blockbuster. Called Lessons and Priorities for a Changing World, it runs to just under 600 pages and it covers the last five decades of progress in improving the world's food systems. Also, challenges that remain and the need to keep evolving if we are going to build food systems that are healthy and sustainable.

今天在Voxdev Talks节目中，我们邀请到IFRI的约翰·斯温顿和普妮玛·梅农。我们将聚焦报告中详细阐述的农业食品韧性与价值链问题——正如稍后将听到的，这对当今乃至未来数十亿人的健康与生计至关重要。欢迎收听VOXDEF Talks，约翰，欢迎你。

Well, today on Voxdev Talks, I'm joined by Johan Swindon and Punimah Menon of IFRI. We're going to focus on agri food resilience and value chains, covered in detail in the report and, as we will hear, vitally important to the health and livelihoods of billions of people today and, of course, in the future. So welcome to VOXDEF Talks. Welcome, Johan.

非常感谢邀请我们参加。很高兴能在这里与您交流。

Thank you very much for having us here. We're delighted to be here with you.

很荣幸能与各位对话。欢迎你，伯努瓦。

I am delighted that I was able to talk to you. Welcome, Benoit.

很高兴来到这里。

Great to be here.

报告中'农业食品'这个术语无处不在，这是经过深思熟虑的。当我们谈论农业食品时，它与传统农业究竟有何区别？

In the report, the term agri food is everywhere. It's used very intentionally. When we talk about agri food, what do we mean as distinct from, well, agriculture?

我认为我们研究所的名称——国际粮食政策研究所，本身就体现了其核心关注点。当然，粮食与农业是主要研究对象，毕竟农业是粮食的主要生产者，但它也生产其他产品，如纺织原料等。这本身就是核心所在。但若从整体视角看粮食系统，其涵盖范围远不止生产体系本身。过去五十年间，从农田到餐桌的中间环节已呈爆炸式增长。

Well, I think the name of our institute is also the International Food Policy Research Institute. So it's very much focused on food and agriculture, of course, the primary producer of food, but it also produces other things such as the raw material for textiles and etc. That in itself is already the core of it. But of course, if we look at the food system as a whole, it encompasses much more than the production system itself only. And we've seen that that part between the farm and the fork has grown tremendously over the past fifty years.

如今将食物送上消费者餐桌的许多活动已不在农场完成，而是由价值链的不同环节承担。我认为还有第二个层面：粮食系统与其他要素的互动——比如环境、健康、全球韧性等——近年来获得的关注已远超生产体系本身。可以说这是多维度的拓展。

And so a lot of activities which are now going on to put the food on the consumer's table is not on the farm anymore, but produced or done by different parts of the value chain. I I think there's a second element to it, and that is also that the interaction with other components of the food system, so things such as the environment, health, the resilience more globally, have received much more attention recently than just the production system itself. So it's an aspect in different dimensions, I would say.

这份报告的精彩之处在于采用了历史视角，完整梳理了五十年的发展历程。回溯1970年代，当时爆发了世界粮食危机。请为我们回顾危机成因？这其后数十年间催生了哪些政策进步？

Now one of the fascinating things about the report is it does take this historical view. It does go through the full five decades of what has happened. So if we go back to the the nineteen seventies, there was a world food crisis. Remind us what caused that? What progress in policy did that inspire in the decades afterwards?

是的，多重因素共同作用。关键诱因是全球市场出现严重的粮食价格飙升，而这实际上与中东地区首次石油危机相关。

Yeah. There was several factors. I mean, one important issue there was a major food price spike in global markets, and that was associated with actually a crisis in The Middle East when we had the first oil crisis.

哦，

Oh,

没错。这促使全球重新审视粮食状况。尽管农业生产率和粮食供应显著提升，但许多人仍因无力购买而挨饿——即便供给端产量增加。这真正引发了关于如何认识世界粮食问题，以及政策应如何发挥作用的重要反思。

yeah. And this also triggered the whole review of, okay, how is the food situation in the world? It was associated with the understanding that despite significant improvements in productivity of agriculture and the growth of the food supply, a lot of people were having hunger because they couldn't afford the food despite the fact that there was more productivity on the supply side. And that really triggered a big rethinking of how we should look at food problems in the world and what the role of policy was in changing that.

那么当进入全球化时代，即1990年代至二月的贸易自由化时期，这对粮食系统及全球人口供养能力产生了何种影响？

So if we then move on to the era of globalization, the liberalization in world trade in the nineteen nineties to February, how did this affect food systems and our ability to feed the global population?

我是说，过去五十年发生了许多事情。但一方面，如果你看看全球的粮食安全状况，确实从1970年代中期到大约十年前，我们见证了四十年来粮食安全前所未有的改善、贫困减少等等。所以这是一个重大的成功故事。但我们也看到过去十年出现了逆转，粮食不安全加剧，营养不良现象增加。

I mean, a lot of things have happened over the last fifty years. But on the one hand, if you look at the food security in the world, okay, we see four decades really from the middle of the 1970s until about a decade ago of unprecedented improvements in food security, reductions in poverty, etcetera. So it's a major success story. What we also see is the last decade has been seen a reversal of that. And we've seen an increase in food insecurity, increase in malnutrition.

当然，其中一些根源并非始于2015年，而是更早。但展望未来，我认为我们的格局已发生重大变化。1960、70年代，世界各国政府对食品市场实行严格控制。1980、90年代出现了显著的贸易自由化浪潮，这与贸易增长密切相关。

And of course, some of the roots of that didn't really start just in 2015, they go back before. But there's been major changes, I think, in our landscape looking forward. We have in the 1960s, 1970s, there was massive government control of food markets around the world. There's been a significant wave of liberalization that took place in the 1980s and 1990s. This was associated also with the increase in trade.

回顾历史，比如中国在1970年代末之前，整个经济包括食品体系都受政府强力管控。之后国内食品体系大幅自由化，这种模式随后扩展到东亚大部分地区乃至全球其他国家。因此今天的食品体系与五十年前已截然不同。

If you look back, for example, China was very strongly government controlled, the entire economy, also the food system. Until the late 1970s, there's been major liberalization of the internal food system there, and that has spread through much of East Asia and then also to other countries around the world. So this is a very different world of food systems that we have today than they were like fifty years ago.

在这个全新的时代背景下，我们需要思考食品体系的韧性。如果我们确实需要增强食品体系韧性（我想大家都会认同这点），那么这个体系的哪些方面能够提供这种韧性？

In this different world that we have today, we need to think about the resilience of the food system. If we need more resilience in the food system, and I think we can all agree that we do, then what aspects of that food system can deliver resilience?

我认为必须全面审视食品体系的韧性——包括生产系统的韧性、市场与价值链的韧性，以及如何切实增强消费者与生产者的抗风险能力。气候变化对食品的影响及其对价值链的冲击正引发重要议题。我们正在进行大量研发工作来理解这些机制，例如研究园艺市场中太阳能冷藏设施的应用，探索针对脆弱和冲突地区妇女的适应性社会保障网络。

I think we have to look at resilience all the way across the food system, Looking at resilience in terms of production systems, in terms of what's happening in markets and value chains, and also about how we really support and strengthen resilience for people, the consumers, the producers. There are some really important issues emerging in terms of the impact of climate change on food and climate change shocks on the value chains. We're doing quite a bit of research and R and D to really understand how all these things play out. For example, we're looking at solar powered cold storage facilities in horticulture markets. We're looking at adaptive social safety nets to women in fragile and conflict affected settings.

我们正在研究如何在受气候变化等冲击影响的关键地区维持儿童营养改善计划。本质上，我们通过研究试图理解冲击如何影响韧性体系，以及如何在系统各环节实施干预措施。这需要贯穿整个食品供应链的解决方案，意味着我们必须为每个节点寻找应对之策。

We're looking at programs that preserve child nutrition progress in crucial areas that are affected by shocks like climate change. And so in a sense, what we are doing through the research we do is trying to understand the ways in which resilience is affected by shocks, and the ways in which you can intervene and support different parts of the system. It runs end to end in the food system, and that means we need to find solutions at every one of those points.

报告的一个亮点是你们分解分析了食品体系运作机制及韧性/脆弱性来源的分析框架。如果将其应用于当今食品体系，能否借此评估体系在压力下的潜在表现？我们能从中获得什么启示？

One aspect of the report is that you break down your analytical about how the food system works and where resilience and lack of resilience might come from. There's a framework you use to do that. If we are to apply them to the food system that we have today, can we use that to assess what the likely performance under stress of the food system would be? What do we learn from this?

从根本上说，理解韧性的方式在于：韧性并非单一政策，而是一套政策框架，用于应对问题。我们可以将其划分为三个层面：首先是预防冲击或问题的发生。例如，气候变化领域的整个减缓策略就属于这一层面。

Basically, way to think about resilience is resilience is not a single policy. Resilience is really a set of policies, a framework to approach problems. And so you can think about really having three layers. One is prevent shocks or prevent problems to occur. And so, for example, the whole approach to mitigation in the climate change area is part of that.

但同样重要的是，所有关于如何向公众传达我们的分析成果的议题——即不同行为和政策如何预防问题的发生。第二层面关乎准备，本质上是告知人们可能发生的冲击、其发生地点与方式，以便人们能组织应对。第三层面则是响应，即当冲击发生时如何采取应对措施。

But it can also all the issues related to informing people about what analysis that we do really in terms of how different behaviour, different policies can prevent things from occurring is really important. The second component has to do with preparing. It's basically informing people the shocks that may occur, where they will occur, how they will occur, and so people can organise themselves to deal with it. And then the third component is response. Okay, if shocks occur, so how can you respond to them?

因此，诸如消费者侧的社会保障计划、生产者侧的保险体系等政策工具，以及介于两者之间的整套措施都至关重要。我们必须从整个粮食系统的视角出发，通过这三个韧性层面来应对问题。

And so things like social protection programmes on the consumer side, insurance systems on the producer side, there's a whole set of policies and intermediate as well. So again, you have to take us from the entire food systems perspective to deal with it in these three different layers of our resilience.

报告中您还提出包容性与公平性对构建韧性食品价值链至关重要。我们需要在食品价值链的哪些环节考虑包容与公平？因为许多人可能仅关注链条末端——谁获得了食物，而您的思考贯穿了整个链条。

You also argue in the report that inclusiveness and equity are essential for a resilient food value chain. In what parts of the food value chains do we need to think about inclusiveness and equity? Because many of us would think about it as just at the end of that chain, who gets food. You're thinking about it throughout.

在国际食物政策研究所（IFPRI），我们的工作重点在于理解女性、青年等常处于社会弱势地位的粮食系统参与者如何在整个系统中受益。例如，我们通过大量研究考察了农业领域、市场环境、家庭空间直至消费端的妇女赋权问题。系统化视角的益处在于能确保我们在粮食系统各环节审视包容与公平。比如，我们研究支持小规模生产者的干预措施，关注不同类型生产者在规模上的公平性问题。

At IFRI, our work has really focused on understanding differences in how women, youth, and many other actors in the food system, who may often be vulnerable or marginalized in societies, to really understand the ways in which they benefit across the food system. So for example, we've looked at issues of women's empowerment in agriculture, in markets, in domestic spaces, and all the way to the consumption end through a lot of our work. I think there's some benefits to the ways in which we approach things in a system wide perspective, because it means that we really look at inclusion and equity at all points in the food system. For example, our work looks at interventions to support small scale producers on the ground. There are equities in terms of the size of different types of producers in the food system, for example.

我们还研究各类社会保障计划。这些计划虽已扩大规模并复杂化，但关键在于能否灵活适应并精准覆盖最脆弱群体——正如您之前关于韧性的讨论所言，必须理解冲击影响的对象、方式及程度，从而定制本质上以公平为目标的项目。例如在农业生产端，我们关注男女土地权属公平问题，这对土地控制权、使用方式及粮食生产系统运作具有重大影响。因此IFPRI的诸多研究都将公平——特别是性别公平——置于核心位置。

We look at different types of social protection programs. Again, these have expanded in scale and complexity, but what you need is programs that can adapt and reach the most vulnerable when they most need it, right? Because you need to understand, as you mentioned earlier in our work on resilience, who's affected by shocks, in what ways, and with what depth, and then how do you tailor programs that are fundamentally targeted to equity to be able to address that. We also look at it, for example, on the agriculture production side, the issues of equity in land tenure rights between men and women, these things have big implications for who controls land, for how land is used, how it plays out in food production systems. So a lot of IFPRI's work has had equity, especially gender equity at the heart of it.

我们的工作不仅在于揭示问题，更致力于识别贯穿整个链条的解决方案。

And it's been not just about shining a light on the problem, but also about identifying solutions to tackle this across the chain.

当你们考虑用这些包容性指标来衡量食品价值链的韧性与表现时，我们是否具备创建这类评估价值链绩效指标的方法？因为在我们的食品体系中，几十年来出于充分理由，我们一直高度关注效率问题。

When you are thinking about measuring the resilience, the performance of food value chains, using these inclusive metrics. Do we have the ways of creating these metrics of measuring the performance of value chains? Because when it comes to our food systems, we have focused over the decades very much for very good reasons on efficiency.

我们在指标方面做了大量工作——因为我们工作的一个重要支柱就是揭示那些需要解决方案的挑战。例如，我们最知名的成果之一就是《女性赋权与农业指数》，它处于指标公平与农业的交叉领域，现已获得全球广泛认可。另一个是《迁移倾向指数》，专门评估高风险地区人口的迁出可能性。我们还制定了更侧重政策与国家层面的《农业转型指数》。如今又兴起通过《食品系统倒计时》这类指数或指标集来评估整个国家食品系统表现的新趋势，我们对此也做出了贡献。

We've done lots of work on metrics, again, because one huge pillar of the work we do is on shining light on the challenges that you then need to find solutions for. And so, for example, one of our best known bodies of work intersection between metrics and equity and agriculture is the Women's Empowerment and Agriculture Index, which has gained widespread recognition, is just used all over the world now. Another is our Migration Propensity Index, which really looks at the likelihood of emigrating from places at risk. We have an Agriculture Transformation Index that is more at the policy and national level. And then today there is a new movement to look at whole country food systems performance through an index or a body of metrics called the Food Systems Countdown, which again we've made contributions to.

我们常与使用数据的政策制定者合作。仅仅拥有数据和指标是不够的，我们认为数据的真正价值在于如何用它来聚焦问题、识别需要行动的领域。对我们而言，这不仅是制定指标，还包括与决策者携手同行，通过扎根于全球最脆弱地区的政策支持项目，帮助他们认清挑战并制定对策。

We work a lot with policymakers who use data, right? It's not enough that you have the data and the metrics. I think a real hallmark of how we approach data is how does it actually get used to spotlight problems, to identify areas that need action. And for us, it isn't just about the metrics. It's also about walking hand in hand with policymakers and decision makers to help them see the challenges and identify actions, which we do through really rooted policy support programmes in some of the world's most vulnerable setting.

我认为关键进展在于，我们现已系统性地开始不仅收集信息，更对整个食品系统及其各组成部分进行信息整合。过去人们常关注农业占GDP比重、就业占比等。虽然我们早就知道但未充分记录的是：食品系统中非农环节对创造就业（特别是青年就业）至关重要。许多年轻人正寻求脱离农业就业的机会——因为农业收入和工作机会有限——转而投身食品系统的其他环节，这些工作往往也位于农村地区。

I think an important component of that is that we have now systematically started not just collecting information, but also organising information on the food system as a whole and the different components on it. So in the past, people would often look at the share of agriculture in GDP, the share in employment, etc. We've always known, but not documented very well, the role that the off farm components of the food system are very important in creating employment, and particularly youth employment. You see many young people are looking for opportunities of no longer being employed in agriculture because often it's low income opportunities there or job opportunities, but engaging in different components of the food system. Often they're also in the rural area.

因此社会流动更为顺畅。通过技能发展和新技术的应用，这些工作机会往往更具吸引力。从发展角度看，这些活动不仅能创造更多青年就业机会，也比过去更需要政策关注——或者说需要更明确的政策倾斜。为此我们正与世界银行等多家国际组织合作，开展比以往更深入的分析。

So the social movement is easier. And so with skill development, with access to new technology, often these job opportunities are much more attractive. And you also see that in terms of development, that those activities are very attractive, creates much more job opportunities for young people going forward, and therefore require more policy attention than they have received in the past, I would say, or more explicit policy attention. And so we're working together with quite a number of international organisations like the World Bank to analyse that in much more detail than we used to do in the past.

既然谈到城市化——这是过去五十年发展历程中的另一个重大议题——随着越来越多人口向城市迁移，我们是否需要加强研究、更加重视如何将农村生产与城市市场相衔接？

Well, if we're discussing urbanisation, which has been another huge story in development in the last fifty years, more people are moving to cities. Do we need to do more research, pay more attention to how we are linking rural production to urban markets?

在生产端，我们发现与城市市场的距离是决定生产力、要素获取和农场性质的关键因素。农业活动类型与其距城市远近呈现明显梯度变化。当然，这种邻近性并非恒定——它会因城市化进程本身以及运输成本、信息成本的变化而改变。

On the production side, what we see is that the distance to urban markets is a really very important determinant of productivity, of access to inputs, of the nature of the farm. Okay? You really see gradient in terms of the type of agricultural activities, how close they are to cities. Now, of course, closeness is not a given, okay? Closeness changes by urbanisation itself, but also by the transport costs and information costs.

而所有这些在过去五十年间都发生了翻天覆地的变化。

And all these have changed tremendously over the past fifty years.

这是个非常有趣的现象，对吧？因为在城市环境中，食物通常相当充裕且容易获取，但真正的挑战在于如何获得营养均衡且价格合理的饮食，尤其是对城市贫民而言。作为一个专注于全球贫困人口问题的机构，我们亟需深入了解城市饮食现状、贫困对其影响以及可行的解决方案。那些通常带有所谓'乡村倾向'的项目设计，在城市环境中往往效果不佳。社会保障措施的实施方式也截然不同。

It's a very interesting phenomenon, right? Because you have settings where food is often rather abundant in cities, it's widely accessible, but the challenges there are really about the access to nutritious and affordable diets, especially for the urban poor. And as an institute that's really focused on what's happening to poor people around the world, we see a huge need to really understand what's happening in terms of urban diets, how they're affected by poverty, and also what kinds of solutions can come into play. The kinds of things that we typically see in programs that have been often designed with what I'm just going to call a rural bias, don't really work the same way in urban settings. Social protection doesn't work the same way.

城市里有流动人口、迁徙群体，还有那些通勤距离很长、时间紧迫的家庭。因此城市地区的饮食模式及其形成机制可能大不相同。与此同时，我认为非常有意思的是，城市食品体系总是最先感知新趋势并塑造饮食风尚。这种城乡之间关于饮食期望与模式塑造的互动关系，我们至今尚未完全理解。

You have migrant populations, you have people who are mobile. You have very time stressed families that are commuting long distances. And so diets and the ways in which they are shaped in urban areas can be quite different. At the same time, I think it's very interesting because urban food systems are the first to see new trends and to shape aspirations. There is this urban rural relationship, if you will, around food aspirations and diets and how things are shaped, which we don't quite fully understand.

举个简单的例子。上周末我去观鸟，开车一个半小时到德里郊外，本是个相当偏远的乡村地带，却发现了家小披萨店，招牌写着'多米诺披萨，欢迎致电'。我当时就想，这地方前不着村后不着店的。但这正体现了城市对乡村饮食期望的重新塑造。

So just a really quick example. I was out birding this past weekend, drove out about an hour and a half outside of Delhi, fairly rural area at the end of the day, and found this tiny pizza shop. It said, Domio's Pizza, call us. And I'm going, this is in the middle of nowhere. But it's a sense of sort of that urban to rural reshaping of aspirations.

我认为这里面有很多值得深入研究的课题。遗憾的是，农业研究领域对此关注不足。研究城市问题的人群可能是另一批学者。我们需要更多努力来建立城乡之间的联结——这正是农业食品体系变得至关重要的原因。

I think there's some very interesting things there for us to dig into. Unfortunately, it doesn't get enough play in agriculture research. The people thinking about what's happening in urban areas, it's perhaps a different set of people. So we need to do a lot more to connect the dots there between rural and urban. And this is where agri food becomes important.

当前食品政策中一个非常突出的问题，是冲突地区的粮食供应机制。我们越来越多地看到食物获取权被当作战争武器。该如何加强制度建设来保护这些处境下的弱势群体？

One aspect of food policy, is very salient at the moment, is how that works in conflict zones. You increasingly see access to food used as a weapon of war. What can we do to strengthen institutions to protect vulnerable people in these situations?

相关数据确实令人非常担忧。当然，战争与粮食问题自古就相互关联，这可以追溯到几千年前，并非新鲜事。但如果你观察全球因冲突或动荡而流离失所的人口数量，过去十到十五年间这个数字出现了极其显著的增长。

The numbers there are really, really worrisome. Of course, war and food have always been associated with each other. I mean, this goes thousands of years. It's really not a new thing. But if you look at the number of displaced people in the world, displaced because of conflict or fragility, that has increased very, very strongly over the last ten, fifteen years.

数量确实增长了三倍。目前全球范围内，我从大约4000万人增至超过1亿至1.2亿人。这种增长几乎呈指数级，与全球急性粮食不安全状况的加剧密切相关。这显然导致了全球粮食安全形势的显著恶化。

It's really tripled. So I'm roughly 40,000,000 people in the world to more than 100, 120,000,000 people right now. And it's almost like an exponential growth there. This is very strongly associated with growth in acute food insecurity in the world. And so that is clearly contributing to the very negative development in food security in the world.

部分原因在于内部冲突，部分源于全球性冲突。当然，这也与日益频发的天气冲击有关，但还有许多其他因素同样起着重要作用。从政策角度看，部分问题涉及如何应对这些挑战。我们常想到国际移民，比如非洲人迁往欧洲，但大多数移民流向同样贫困的地区。因此在粮食安全方面，无论是新迁入者还是当地居民，都面临着诸多本土化问题。

And part of it is internal conflicts, and part of it is global conflicts. And of course, it is associated with weather shocks, which are increasing in the world, but there's a number of other factors which of course also play a very important role. And some of the issues from a policy perspective have to do with how to cope with it. We often think about international migration, people from Africa migrating to Europe, for example, but most of the migrants are going to places which are also poor. So there's a lot of local issues there in terms of food security, both for the people who arrive and the people who are living there and coping with this situation.

在脆弱和受冲突影响的地区，你会看到最严重的儿童营养不良形式。比如严重消瘦症，这导致幼儿死亡。所有这些都是迫在眉睫的问题。但追溯至荷兰饥荒（二战围城事件的一部分）的营养学历史研究告诉我们：在生命最初1000天等关键时期遭受深度营养不良，会产生极其长远的负面影响。因此我和我们共同的担忧是，随着冲突范围扩大，其与纯粹生理脆弱性及粮食不安全对幼儿和孕妇人力资本的长期影响产生的叠加效应。

You see the most severe forms of child malnutrition in fragile and conflict affected settings. So things like severe wasting, which contributes to the deaths of young children. And all of that is a very here and now problem. But the historical research in nutrition, stemming all the way back to the Dutch famine, which was part of the siege that happened in World War II, what we also know is that there are very long term implications of being affected by malnutrition in deep ways at very critical points of time, so the first thousand days of life. And so my worry, and I think our worry, is that as we see the expansion of conflicts, the intersection of that with the sort of pure biological vulnerability and the long term human capital impacts of young children and pregnant women that are affected by food insecurity.

这意味着我们面对的不仅是当下问题，更关乎人类未来。真正长远的影响。例如对荷兰饥荒的研究仍在继续，他们仍在跨代DNA中发现持续的影响痕迹。

I mean, we're looking at implications that are not just about the here and now. I mean, this is also about the future of humanity. Really long term impacts. The studies of the Dutch famine, for example, still continue. And they still find impacts, lingering impacts, in the DNA across generations.

因此，在需要关注什么以及为何要重点保护弱势群体方面，我们确实面临诸多挑战。

So really a lot to contend with in terms of what we need to be paying attention to and why we need to be paying attention to protecting vulnerable populations.

我非常想探讨几个关于人类未来的问题。当前政策制定者面临宏观经济冲击带来的巨大挑战——通胀上升、汇率波动、利率变化已直接传导至食品价值链，而决策者正在应对。哪些措施能有效保障食物获取？

I really want to discuss a couple of those future of humanity type questions. There are huge challenges for policymakers at the moment from macroeconomic shocks. We've seen rising inflation, currency movements, interest rates. They have translated directly through to food value chains, and policymakers are responding. What has worked well to protect access to food?

过去五十年回顾中乐观的部分给我们带来积极启示：1970年代至2010年代间，粮食安全与减贫取得巨大进步。我认为这得益于公共政策与私营活动、企业家精神之间更好的平衡。同时也关联到国内外大规模基础设施投资及多方面的国际合作。例如为国际贸易提供框架而成立的WTO，但过去几十年间，这些机制或许说不上遭受威胁，但确实未能充分发挥作用。

The positive lessons of the optimistic part of looking back over the last fifty years has really been what the enormous improvements in food security reduction poverty between the 1970s and the 2010s, really. These have been associated with better equilibrium, I would say, between public policy and private activities, private entrepreneurship. It has also been associated with very large investments in infrastructure, both domestically and internationally, and also with the international cooperation in many ways. We've seen the WTO, for example, which was created to provide a framework for international trade. A lot of these things are under, maybe threat is not the right word, but really have not functioned all that well over the last decades.

我们也看到，全球范围内对公共研发（研究与开发）的大规模投资已经趋于平缓。在不少国家，这些投资甚至低于预期目标。这直接导致全球农业和粮食生产的 productivity 增长陷入停滞。与十年前相比，当前的生产力增长速度显著放缓。因此，我们需要在这些领域重新加大投资力度。

We've also seen that massive investment we've seen in public R and D, research and development, they have flattened at the global level. And in quite a few countries, are below targets. And this has translated in the fact that we see global productivity growth in agriculture and food production leveled off. So the growth is considerably less in terms of productivity than it was a decade ago. So we need reinvestments in a lot of these things.

我认为世界变得有些自满，觉得一切看起来都很好，所以不再需要过多关注这些问题。这种想法是错误的。我们必须再次高度重视。在国际层面，众所周知当前摆在桌面上的议题，我们确实需要付出巨大努力来确保协调机制到位——既要从公共角度出发，也要调动私营部门的参与、企业家精神以及市场机制，使其朝着正确而非错误的方向释放能量。

I think the world has become a bit complacent in terms of everything looks good, so we don't need to pay that much attention to it anymore. And that's wrong. We need to pay a lot of attention again. I think also on the international level, and everybody knows the issues that are on the table right now, we really need to put a lot of effort into making sure that the coordination there is there, both from the public perspective and from the private engagement, entrepreneurship and the markets that can function well to unleash these in the right direction and not in the wrong direction.

我们在全球遇到一批政策制定者，他们认识到其中某些问题是需要解决的真正难题。例如，他们会将粮食不安全和营养不良问题与更宏大的全球议程联系起来。他们在自身背景下关注这些问题，决定开展协调行动，将其纳入高层对话，并切实将资金导向那些已被证明能产生实质影响的行动。

We encounter a set of policymakers globally that recognize that some of these problems are real problems that need solutions. So they align around, for example, the value of food insecurity and malnutrition to the larger global agenda. They pay attention to it in their own context. They decide to coordinate on it. They will include it in their top dialogues and really direct financing towards the kinds of actions that we know make a difference.

对我而言，另一种理想情景是政策环境中人们意识到证据能帮助他们更好地履职。这正是我们研究者可以介入合作的领域。不能只是随意投放有限资源然后期待效果，必须极具战略性地思考：如何利用有限资源为最脆弱人群创造最大可能的影响？如何投资于长期韧性建设？

And for me, the other best scenarios are where we also encounter policy settings where people are cognizant that evidence can help them do a better job. That's where we come in as researchers to work with people. You can't just throw limited resources out there and hope it has an impact. Have to think very strategically about how am I going to use the limited resources to achieve the greatest possible impacts for the most vulnerable people? How am I going to invest in long term resilience?

如何解决根源性问题？在资源极度受限的情况下，这些都不是容易的决策。因此，我们最理想的情况是决策者积极与知识界、研究者互动，询问'请告诉我们这里最该做什么'，或者说'我们将以这些方式创新，让我们共同验证其效果'。

How am I going to tackle root causes? These are not easy decisions when resources are very, very constrained. And so our best case scenario is really when people are engaging with the knowledge community, with the researchers, saying, tell us what the best things are that we can do here. Or we are going to innovate in these ways. Let's work together to see how well it works.

但现实是许多问题最终被否认。这种情况下，即便你手握最佳解决方案，对于民众的安全保障也无济于事。摆在我们面前的任务更加艰巨：问题认知、持续投资和边做边学——我认为这些都是通向实质性影响的重大积极基石。

But we are in a world where many problems end up being denied. And then it doesn't matter if you have the best solutions in hand. Of people's safety and security, it doesn't matter. Well, we have a bigger job in front of us. Problem recognition, investments, and learning as we go, I think these are big, big positive stepping stones to impact for us.

好的，这是最理想的情况。那么最坏的情况是什么？当前存在哪些不良政策？

Okay. So that's the best case scenarios. What are the worst case scenarios? What's bad policy at the moment?

例如，回顾贸易领域，我记得学生时代有一本著名的书，芝加哥大学D.盖尔·约翰逊所著的《混乱的世界市场》。许多人引用过它。那时的问题在于各国政府如何干预国际市场，导致全球市场极不稳定。但当时的原因与今日截然不同。

Well, if you look, for example, at the trade arena, I recall when I was a student, there was a very well known book which called World Markets in Disarray by D. Gale Johnson from University of Chicago. A lot of people referred to it. And at that point, it was how governments were intervening in international markets with a lot of instability in global markets. But the reason was quite different from today.

当时，富国存在大量补贴政策。而发展中国家通过对农民的税收、汇率操控或低效管制，实际上对这些最贫困国家的农民课以重税。随着时间推移，国际社会对这些政策进行了重大改革，从而促进了国际贸易发展，使贸易为减贫和粮食安全作出贡献。如今我们面临双重问题：一方面，每当全球市场出现粮价飙升，多个粮食出口国就开始限制出口。

At that point, it was a lot of subsidies in rich countries. It was taxation of farmers through meddling or inefficient control of exchange rates in developing countries, which really put a big tax on the poorest of these developing countries, the farmers. Over time, international, there's been significant reforms of these policies, so to the benefit of international trade and the way international trade has contributed to poverty reduction and food security. Right now, we see a double problem. Think on the one hand, we see in several countries whenever there was a price spike or an increase in food price on global markets, food exporting countries start restricting exports.

这反而加剧了局势，推动价格进一步上涨。同时我们看到关税壁垒重新抬头——这本该是过去的事物，却正在卷土重来。全球范围内，某些国家的行为显然引发了这种趋势。不稳定性正在急剧增加。新冠疫情也让我们认识到，全球食品价值链在此期间展现出了惊人的韧性。

So they're making things worse by increasing the prices even further. And at this point, we see the growth of tariffs again, something we thought was something of the past, but it's coming back. Around the world is clearly triggered by some of the activity in some countries. The instability is growing a lot. What COVID has learned as well is that our global food value chains have shown a remarkable amount of resilience, I would say, over in this period.

尽管初期我们预计会出现严重中断，也有相关报道，但公共部门和私营部门都展现出极强的企业家精神，使价值链比我们预想的更具韧性。当然，当前政策层面的高度不确定性和不稳定性，并不利于产生良好结果。我们显然需要在这方面做得更好。

So while initially we expected, or we had stories of a lot of disruptions, there has been quite a lot of, I think, quite entrepreneurial responses, both in the public sector and the private sector, to make our value chains more resilient than we thought. But of course, with the current level of uncertainty, of instability on the policy side, this is not conducive to good outcomes. So we clearly have to do much better there.

在我看来，最糟糕的结果是援助预算的突然中断。我们现在已经能够模拟这对营养不良的影响。有新论文研究了这可能导致的儿童死亡人数增加。但这些是否会成为现实，取决于能否重建某些系统，是否有其他力量介入。这不仅仅是援助能否送达的问题。

For me, the worst outcomes would be rapid disruptions in aid budgets. What we've seen is we've been able to now model the impacts of that on malnutrition. There's new papers out on the impacts of that on what we might anticipate in terms of additional deaths of children. But whether those happen or not now depend on whether some of those systems can be rebuilt, whether others are going to step in. And it isn't just about aid getting delivered.

这关乎制度体系。关键在于能否重建知识系统，能否鼓励用国内资金替代原先由援助预算资助的项目。如果要避免当前预算削减带来的最严峻挑战，我们需要进行大量系统性工作。正如你提到的贸易政策，它们正与援助预算的大幅削减产生交集，共同造成全系统范围的影响。

It is about institutions. It is whether knowledge systems can be rebuilt, whether we can encourage domestic financing for things that were otherwise financed by aid budgets. So there's a lot of systems work that needs to be done if we are to avoid the worst of some of the challenges we are seeing now with the dismantling of budget. We are in this world where the trade policies that you mentioned are intersecting with deep reductions in aid budgets. And together, that's having system wide impacts.

这些都是我们需要高度关注的重要问题。

Big things for us to pay attention to, really.

报告中这五十年的跨度确实向我们展示了诸多领域取得的巨大进步。我们是该感到满足，还是应该担忧接下来的五十年，考虑到您刚才提出的那些挑战？我们还需要了解哪些尚未知晓的信息？

This fifty year sweep that's in the report, one thing it does show us is the huge strides that have been made in many areas. Should we look satisfaction, or should we be worrying about the next fifty years, considering the challenges that you've just laid out? What do we need to know that we don't know?

过去五十年值得庆贺的是，许多原本缺乏创新体系和研究能力的国家，如今已建立起令人惊叹的创新系统和研究机构网络。这些机构不仅实现区域互联，更日益参与并影响全球议程，同时支持本土解决方案。作为国际研究组织，我们自身也高度去中心化。我十分期待未来几十年，我们将如何与新兴的创新研究生态系统互动，切实为政策制定者构建所需证据——既要符合其本土语境，又能融入全球知识生态体系。我们正是从这些角度思考自身在全球中的角色，既庆祝成就，也展望全新未来。

Something to celebrate in the last fifty years has been the incredible building of innovation systems and research capabilities in many many of the countries that did not have these new institutions, institutions that are connected regionally, increasingly interfacing and shaping the global agenda, as well as supporting local solutions. So for us, as an international research organization, we are decentralized quite a bit as well. I really look forward to the next decades of how we interface with new innovation and research ecosystem to really support building the evidence that policymakers need both for themselves in their context, but also in a way that's connected to the global knowledge ecosystem. So we are thinking about our roles in the world precisely from those perspectives, celebrating success, but also looking to a new future, if you will.

我们不应低估人类在粮食安全领域取得的重大突破。但与此同时，过去十年的数据确实令人忧虑，趋势正在恶化。冲突、气候变化等因素让人难以乐观。普尔尼玛已经提到援助预算缩减的问题，我认为这将是未来面临的最大挑战之一。

We should not diminish the major strike that humanity has made in this area of food security. But at the same time, the numbers of the last decade are really worrisome. They're really going in the wrong direction. Conflict, climate change, etcetera, are not giving much hope for optimism. Purnima already mentioned the reduction in aid budget, I think, are one of the biggest challenges going forward.

如何维持传统捐助方的资金支持？如何调动中等收入国家的资金？如何促使低收入国家自身进行更高效的投资？同时，我们该如何推动私营部门更有效地为整个体系注入资金？此外，我们必须比现在更高效地利用公共部门的每一分资金。

How can we keep up the funding from the traditional donors? How can we mobilize funding from middle income countries? And how can we mobilize much more effective investments in the low income countries themselves? And then how can we bring a much more effective private sector mobilization of funding into this whole thing at the same time? And we should use whatever funding we have on the public sector much more effectively than we do.

我期待在2075年2月读到这份报告的百年纪念版，相信二位届时定是执笔人之一。非常感谢。

I'm looking forward to reading the one hundredth anniversary report in 02/1975. I am sure you'll be two of the authors of it. Thank you very much.

非常感谢邀请我们参与。

Thanks very much for having us.

非常感谢你，蒂姆。今天能来到这里深感荣幸。

Thank you very much, Tim. Great pleasure to be here today.

如果你想下载这份名为《食品政策教训与变革世界中的优先事项——2025年全球食品政策报告》的报告，我们会在节目说明中附上链接，以防我念错，就不必在此朗读了。这里是Vox Dev Talk。确保不错过任何一期节目的最佳方式，就是在你获取播客的平台订阅我们。是的。

So if you want to download the report, it's called Food Policy Lessons and Priorities for a Changing World, the 2025 Global Food Policy Report. We will put a link for it in the show notes so that I don't have to read it out, just in case I get it wrong. This has been a Vox Dev Talk. The best way to make sure you don't miss an episode is to subscribe wherever you get your podcasts. Yes.

我们已上线所有往期节目，你可以在voxdev.org收听。若喜欢我们的内容，请推荐给他人，并为我们留下评价。VOXDEF Talks由Talk Normal制作，助理制片人是Megan Bieber，编辑是Andre Zargarian。

We're there. And if you want to listen to our past episodes, they're at voxdev.org. And if you like what you're hearing, tell someone else about it, please, And also leave us a review. VOXDEF Talks is a Talk Normal production. The assistant producer is Megan Bieber, and our editor is Andre Zargarian.

感谢Foxdev的Oliver Hany和Iman Siddiqu。

Thanks to Oliver Hany and Iman Siddiqu at Foxdev.