加密货币崩盘持续中

欢迎来到Seeking Alpha的华尔街午餐会，这里是今天市场动态、新闻和分析的下午更新。

Welcome to Seeking Alpha's Wall Street lunch, our afternoon update on today's market action, news, and analysis.

下午好。

Good afternoon.

今天是2月5日，星期四，我是您的主持人金·汗。

Today is Thursday, February 5, and I'm your host, Kim Khan.

到目前为止，我们的头条新闻。

Our top story so far.

这就是加密货币崩盘的方式。

That's the way the crypto crumbles.

比特币持续跌破关键水平，自2024年底以来首次跌至7万美元以下，继续承受风险规避情绪的冲击。

Bitcoin kept sliding through key levels, falling below 70,000 for the first time since late twenty twenty four as it continues to take the brunt of risk off moves.

随着比特币价格现在逼近6.5万美元，它需要从当前水平大致翻倍，才能重回历史高点。

With Bitcoin coin now knocking at the door of 65 k, it would have to roughly double from here to get back to its all time high.

根据Kobesse通讯引用的数据，自1月14日以来，整个数字资产市场的市值已蒸发超过一万亿美元，每日亏损约450亿美元，且仍在持续。

And according to data cited by the Kobesse letter, the total digital asset market has shed more than a trillion dollars in value since January 14, about 45,000,000,000 in losses a day and counting.

呼应迈克尔·伯里的警告，称抛售可能演变为死亡螺旋，Pivotis Partners的首席市场策略师理查德·法尔表示，他对比特币的目标价为零。

Echoing Michael Burry's warning that the sell off could turn into a death spiral, Richard Farr, chief market strategist at Pivotis Partners, says his price target for Bitcoin is zero point zero.

这不仅仅是为了制造震撼效果。

That's not just for shock factor.

他说，数学推导的结果就是如此。

It's where the math takes us, he posted.

他认为，比特币未能发挥美元对冲功能，反而作为与纳斯达克指数相关的投机性工具进行交易。

He argued Bitcoin has failed to function as a dollar hedge and instead trades as a speculative instrument correlated to the Nasdaq.

他补充说，没有任何一家严肃的央行会持有由策略联合创始人迈克尔·塞勒控制流通量的资产。

No serious central bank will ever own something where strategy cofounder Michael Saylor controls the float, he added.

与加密货币相关的股票也遭受重创，Robinhood、Coinbase、Strategy、Riot Platforms和Hut Eight均承受压力。

Crypto related stocks are also getting hit hard with Robinhood, Coinbase, strategy, Riot platforms, and Hut eight all under pressure.

在活跃股票中，Hims and Hers Health因报道称其远程医疗平台计划推出诺和诺德Wegovy减肥药的廉价复合版本而飙升。

Among active stocks, Hims and Hers Health is surging on a report the telehealth platform is planning to launch cheaper compounded versions of Novo Nordisk's Wegovy weight loss drug.

报道称，HIMS将推出其版本，起价为每月49美元，比品牌药便宜约100美元。

The report says HIMS would roll out its version at an introductory price of $49 a month, about $100 less than the brand name.

雅诗兰黛在标普500指数中跌幅最大，因其发布的全年营收指引低于预期。

Estee Lauder is the S and P five hundred's biggest decliner after issuing full year revenue guidance below forecasts.

该公司表示，到目前为止已因关税损失约1亿美元。

The company said it's taken about a $100,000,000 hit from tariffs so far.

巴里克矿业表示，将推进其北美黄金业务的IPO计划，同时保留大部分股权。

And Barrick Mining says it will move forward with plans for an IPO of its North American gold operations while retaining a significant majority stake.

这些资产占巴里克黄金公司产量的一半以上，以及约60%的价值。

Those assets account for more than half of Barrick Gold's production and about 60% of its value.

在经济方面，官方的1月就业报告被推迟，但交易员们今天仍收到了三组劳动力市场数据，且无一乐观。

Looking to the economy, the official January jobs report is delayed, but traders still got a trio of labor market updates today, and none of them were good news.

每周首次申请失业救济人数上升至23.1万，高于预期。

Weekly initial jobless claims rose more than expected to 231,000.

挑战者公司报告称，1月份企业宣布裁员10.8万人，为2009年以来年初最高，也是自去年10月以来单月最高。

Challenger reported employers announcing a 108,000 job cuts in January, the highest start to a year since 2009, and the biggest monthly total since October.

JOLTS报告显示，12月职位空缺降至654.2万，远低于724.5万的市场共识。

And the JOLTS report showed job openings fell to 6,542,000 in December, well below the 7,245,000 consensus.

潘森宏观经济学家塞缪尔·图姆斯表示，职位空缺下降的约三分之二来自专业和商业服务领域，他认为这可能表明人工智能正促使越来越多的公司暂停招聘。

Pantheon macro economist Samuel Toombs says about two thirds of the drop in openings came from professional and business services, which he says may suggest AI is persuading a growing number of companies to pause on new hiring.

其他值得关注的消息是，Spotify正通过与Bookshop.org的新合作，从数字流媒体扩展到实体书籍销售。

In other news of note, Spotify is expanding beyond digital streaming into physical book sales through a new partnership with bookshop.org.

这项合作将允许美国和英国的高级订阅用户从今年春天开始在应用内直接购买精装本和平装本。

The deal will let premium subscribers in The US and UK buy hardcovers and paperbacks directly in the app starting this spring.

为什么又要回归实体书了？

Why physical books again?

尽管多年来一直预测书店将消亡，但需求，尤其是年轻读者的需求，却大幅增长。

Despite years of predictions about the death of the bookstore, demand, especially among younger readers, has surged.

而这一趋势的很大一部分动力来自BookTok——TikTok的图书社区，在那里，病毒式的推荐能直接引导读者购买特定书籍。

And a lot of that momentum is being driven by BookTok, TikTok's book community, where viral recommendations can send readers straight to specific titles.

在《华尔街研究角落》，杰弗里表示，73%的软件股目前处于超卖状态，这是有记录以来的最高比例。

And in the Wall Street Research Corner, Jeffrey says 73% of software stocks are now oversold, the highest percentage on record.

broader科技板块也不远，约45%的科技股处于超卖区间。

Broader tech isn't far behind, with about 45% of tech names in oversold territory.

杰富瑞补充称，iShares扩展型科技软件ETF（IGV）目前相对于标普500指数的超卖程度达到了历史最高水平。

Jefferies adds at IGV, the iShares expanded tech software ETF, is now more oversold versus the S and P five hundred than at any prior point in history.

与此同时，韦德布什表示，从短期末日情景来看，软件市场定价过高，但认为这种说法被严重夸大了。

Meanwhile, Wedbush says the market is pricey in a near term doomsday scenario for software, but calls that extremely overblown.

该公司认为，如果AI部署会危及数据安全，许多客户不会急于进行激进的AI部署。

The firm argues many customers won't rush into aggressive AI rollouts if it puts their data at risk.

分析师丹·艾维斯将当前时刻描述为一个绝佳的买入时机，建议抄底像Salesforce、CrowdStrike、微软、甲骨文和ServiceNow这样的超卖股票。

Analyst Dan Ives characterized the current moment as a table pounder, timed to buy oversold names like Salesforce, CrowdStrike, Microsoft Oracle, and ServiceNow.

韦德布什还推荐了Palantir和Snowflake，作为应对软件末日的标的。

Wedbush also recommends Palantir and Snowflake for the software apocalypse.

今天的华尔街午餐播报就到这里。

That's all for today's Wall Street lunch.

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Look for links for stories in the show notes section.

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Don't forget, these episodes will be up with transcriptions at seekingalpha.com/wsb.

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