Fed seen holding steady, but for how long?

欢迎收听Seeking Alpha的华尔街早午餐节目，我们会在周日展望本周影响市场的重大事件，以及周末的顶级新闻和分析。

Welcome to Seeking Alpha's Wall Street brunch, our Sunday look ahead to this week's market moving events along with the weekend's top news and analysis.

大家好。

Hello.

今天是10月25日，星期日，我是主持人金·卡恩。

Today is Sunday, October 25, and I'm your host, Kim Khan.

又到了美联储会议周，而这次会议前的市场预期波动非常剧烈。

It's Fed week again, and expectations have swung wildly heading into this meeting.

FOMC的决定将在周三照常公布，之后主席凯文·沃斯特会发表讲话。

The FOMC's decision comes Wednesday as usual with chairman Kevin Worst speaking afterwards.

这次不会有最新点阵图的更新。

There'll be no dot plot update this time around.

市场目前已坚定预期美联储将按兵不动，联邦基金利率将保持在3.25%到4%之间，此前上个月加息了25个基点。

Markets are now firmly pricing in no move with the Fed funds rate staying at three and a quarter to 4% after a quarter point hike last month.

根据联邦基金期货，市场认为美联储再次加息的可能性只有10%。

There's just a 10% chance the Fed hikes again according to Fed funds futures.

富国银行的经济学家表示，这次会议本身可能会比较平静。

Wells Fargo economists say the meeting itself probably will be on the quieter side.

他们补充说，我们猜测主席会像格林斯潘那样，在新闻发布会上含糊其辞，说得让人听不太懂。

We suspect the chair will channel his inner Greenspan and strive to mumble with great incoherence in the press conference, they add.

我们认为沃尔什不会就接下来的政策走向给出太多前瞻性指引。

We see no reason to think Walsh will offer much in the way of forward guidance about what is coming next.

他们还说，如果他有倾向的话，鉴于通胀数据热得发烫，以及美联储12月加息的可能性很高，他会偏向鹰派。

They also said if he has a lean, it will be hawkish given hot inflation data and the high likelihood that the Fed hikes rates in December.

但是这个大胆的预测怎么样？

But how's this for a hot take?

Seeking Alpha的分析师德默·托基奇说，美联储下一步会是降息，而且有可能最早在周三就宣布。

Seeking Alpha analyst, Demer Tokic, says the next Fed move will be a cut, and there's a small chance that it could come as soon as Wednesday.

他的主要理由是？

His big reason?

他认为人工智能泡沫正在破裂，所以焦点必须转向金融稳定，然后是经济衰退。

The AI bubble is bursting in his view, so focus has to shift to financial stability and then to recession.

虽然他说目前按兵不动的可能性更大，但我们现在所处的时期很像2008年初，那时候油价在涨，但金融危机的早期迹象迫使美联储采取了鸽派行动。

While he says the odds are still for no move, we are in a period similar to early two thousand eight when oil was rising, but the early signs of the financial crisis forced dovish moves.

这周又是财报大周，有三家超大规模科技公司公布业绩。

It's also another big earnings week with three hyperscalers reporting.

微软和Alphabet在周三公布财报，亚马逊则在周四。

Microsoft and Alphabet report Wednesday, and Amazon is up Thursday.

微软预计公布第一财季营收约906亿美元，每股收益约4.72美元。

Microsoft is expected to report fiscal q one revenue of about $90,600,000,000 and EPS of roughly $4.72.

投资者可能会高度关注Azure的增长、AI商业化、资本支出，以及公司庞大的基础设施投资最终能否带来足够的回报。

Investors are likely to focus heavily on Azure growth, AI monetization, capital spending, and whether the company's enormous infrastructure investment can ultimately generate sufficient returns.

Seeking Alpha的分析师Michael Del Monte将微软评为强力买入，他认为企业AI采用的加速、微软在安全领域的定位，以及其定制的Maya芯片，都能支持云业务增长，并最终恢复利润率扩张。

SA analyst Michael Del Monte rates Microsoft a strong buy and argues that accelerating enterprise AI adoption, Microsoft security positioning, and its custom Maya chips can support cloud growth and eventually restore margin expansion.

Hunting Alpha的分析师则给出持有评级，并预计尽管目前产能受限，Azure的增长在下季度可能达到约45%。

Hunting Alpha's has a hold and expects Azure growth could reach about 45% next quarter despite ongoing capacity constraints.

该分析师认为，商业RPO的增长表明需求不仅仅来自OpenAI。

The analyst sees commercial RPO growth as evidence that demand extends beyond OpenAI.

不过，Seeking Alpha的分析师里卡多·费尔南德斯把微软的评级上调至卖出，他估计公司每年在数据中心容量上的投入大约有2000亿美元，并警告说，长期租约、GPU定期更换的成本，以及对OpenAI和Anthropic需求的依赖，可能会对现金流和投资资本回报率造成压力。

But SA analyst Ricardo Fernandez raised Microsoft to sell, and he estimates the company is spending roughly $200,000,000,000 annually on data center capacity and warns that long term leases, recurring GPU replacement costs, and reliance on demand from OpenAI and Anthropic could weigh on cash flow and return on invested capital.

在其他财报方面，Verizon、Welltower、Nucor和Public Storage将于周一公布业绩。

Elsewhere on the earnings calendar, Verizon, Welltower, Nucor, and Public Storage report Monday.

周二，Visa、可口可乐、波音和UPS将发布财报。

Visa, Coca Cola, Boeing, and UPS are up Tuesday.

周三，除了Alphabet和微软，还有T-Mobile US、Chipotle、eBay和GE Vernova。

Alphabet and Microsoft are joined by T Mobile US, Chipotle, eBay, and GE Vernova on Wednesday.

周四，礼来、万事达、英特尔、默克、卡特彼勒和壳牌将公布业绩，亚马逊也在同一天。

Eli Lilly, Mastercard, Intel, Merck, Caterpillar, and Shell report with Amazon on Thursday.

周五，埃克森美孚、雪佛龙、BP和艾伯维将发布财报。

ExxonMobil, Chevron, BP, and AbbVie weigh in on Friday.

周末新闻方面，据《华尔街日报》报道，捷蓝航空的债权人正在组织顾问团队，因为该航空公司面临现金消耗和油价上涨的问题。

In the news this weekend, JetBlue creditors are organizing with advisers as the airline deals with cash burn and rising oil prices, according to The Wall Street Journal.

公司计划在周二的第三季度财报电话会议上更新进展和财务展望。

The company plans to update its progress and financial outlook during its q three earnings call on Tuesday.

另外，六旗娱乐的首席执行官约翰·莱利表示，在乔治亚州的六旗乐园，将给“歌利亚”过山车加装安全带，因为本月早些时候有一名男子从该设施上坠落身亡。

And Six Flags Entertainment CEO John Riley said seat belts would be added to the Goliath roller coaster at Six Flags over Georgia after a man fell from the ride to his death earlier this month.

他还提到，其他园区类似的过山车也会加装安全带。

He added that similar coasters at its other parks would also get seat belts.

像“歌利亚”这样的超级过山车本来就配有贝壳式的压腿安全杠。

Hypercoasters such as Goliath already have clamshell lap bar restraints.

对于追求股息收入的投资者来说，卡特彼勒将在周一除息，并于11月19日支付股息。

And for income investors, Caterpillar goes ex Dividend Monday, paying out on November 19.

美国铝业将在周二除息，派息日为11月20日。

Alcoa goes ex dividend Tuesday with a November 20 payout date.

好市多和摩根士丹利将在周五除息，两者都在11月19日支付股息。

Costco and Morgan Stanley go ex dividend Friday, both paying out on November 19.

今天的华尔街早午餐就到这里。

That's all for today's Wall Street brunch.

相关故事链接请查看节目笔记部分。

Look for links to stories in the show notes section.

别忘了，这些节目会在seekingalpha.com/wsb上线并附有文字稿，加入真正的投资者精英社区，发掘绝佳的投资思路。

Don't forget, these episodes will be up with transcriptions at seekingalpha.com/wsb, and join the elite community of real investors to unearth great investing ideas.

直接访问seekingalpha.com/subscriptions即可。

Just head to seekingalpha.com/subscriptions.