就业数据推迟美联储降息时间表

欢迎来到Seeking Alpha的华尔街午餐会，这里是今天市场动态、新闻和分析的下午更新。

Welcome to Seeking Alpha's Wall Street lunch, our afternoon update on today's market action, news, and analysis.

下午好。

Good afternoon.

今天是2月11日星期三，我是您的主持人金·汗。

Today is Wednesday, February 11, and I'm your host, Kim Khan.

到目前为止，我们的头条新闻。

Our top story so far.

那些对延迟的就业报告的悲观预期都烟消云散了。

So much for all the pessimism heading into the delayed jobs report.

一月份非农就业岗位增加了13万个，超过了7万个的市场预期，远高于去年12月的4.8万个。

Nonfarm payrolls rose by a 130,000 in January, beating the 70,000 consensus and well above December's 48,000.

失业率从4.4%降至4.3%，而市场预期为4.4%。

The unemployment rate dipped to 4.3% from 4.4 versus expectations for 4.4%.

劳动力参与率从12月的62.4%微升至62.5%。

The labor force participation rate edged up to 62.5 from 62.4 in December.

劳工统计局还将其对2025年就业增长的估计下调至18.1万，低于此前的58.4万，使2025年的月均就业增长约为1.5万，这进一步表明劳动力市场一直处于低招聘状态。

The BLS also revised down its estimate of twenty twenty five job growth to a 181,000 from five eighty four, bringing the monthly average of twenty twenty five to about 15,000, another sign the labor market has been running on low hiring.

TS Lombard的首席经济学家弗蕾亚·贝米施写道，鉴于今天的超预期表现，三个月的趋势暗示经济可能正在复苏，企业正在适应不确定性，同时利润率保持稳定。

Freya Bemisch, chief economist at TS Lombard, wrote that with today's upside surprise, the three month trend now hints at a recovery that may be starting as businesses adjust to uncertainty and margins hold up.

她说，公司在去年应对关税不确定性时，以最有利于生产率增长的方式应对：没有将关税成本上涨转嫁给消费者，从而保护了实际需求，并避免了增聘员工。

Companies weathered last year's tariff uncertainty in the best possible way for productivity growth, refraining from passing on tariff cost increases, thereby shielding real demand and refraining from hiring, she said.

如果劳动力市场真的已经转向，那么生产率看涨者将面临诸多质疑。

If the labor market really has turned, then the productivity bulls will have a lot to answer.

强劲的数据在股票、债券和利率预期中引发连锁反应。

The strong data echoed through stocks, bonds, and rate expectations.

股市开盘即上涨，纳斯达克领涨。

Stocks popped at the open, led by the Nasdaq.

各期限国债收益率全面上升，两年期收益率约为3.5%，十年期收益率接近4.2%。

Treasury yields rose across the curve with the two year around 3.5% and the ten year near 4.2%.

但比特币并未加入风险偏好行情，仍处于下跌区间，低于7万美元。

But Bitcoin didn't join the risk on move, staying in the red below 70 k.

在美联储方面，原本完全被市场定价的6月 quarter point 利率下调被推迟至7月，而第三次降息的概率从约40%降至约5%。

And on the Fed front, the quarter point rate cut that had been fully priced in for June was pushed out to July, while the odds of a third rate cut fell from around 40% to about 5%.

头条公司新闻称，这是一场麦片与番茄酱的和解。

Headlining company news call it a reconciliation between mac and cheese and ketchup.

卡夫亨氏已暂停其分拆计划，转而专注于改善财务表现。

Kraft Heinz has paused work on its separation plan as it focuses on improving its financial performance.

首席执行官史蒂夫·科林表示，他的首要任务是让业务重回盈利增长，暂停分拆有助于集中资源执行运营计划，并避免今年因分拆带来的协同效应损失。

CEO Steve Colleen said his top priority is returning the business to profitable growth and that pausing the separation keeps resources focused on the operating plan and avoids separation related dyssynergies this year.

卡夫亨氏计划不进行剥离，而是投资6亿美元用于市场营销、研发和选择性定价。

Instead of a divestiture, Kraft Heinz plans to invest $600,000,000 in marketing, research and development, and select pricing.

在其他活跃股票中，Unity Software在游戏开发平台发布疲弱的一季展望后大幅下跌。

Among other active stocks, Unity Software is plunging after the gaming development platform issued a weak q one outlook.

Unity预计第一季度收入约为4.85亿美元，低于四月的市场共识。

Unity sees first quarter revenue around 485,000,000 below the April consensus.

公司还预测调整后的EBITDA为1.05亿至1.1亿美元，低于12月的预期。

It also guides for adjusted EBITDA of 105 to a 110,000,000 short of the 01/12 estimate.

Shopify在第四季度收入同比增长30.6%至3月，超出预期约8000万美元，股价因此上涨。

Shopify is rallying after revenue jumped 30.6% in q four to March, topping expectations by about 80,000,000.

首席财务官杰夫·霍夫迈斯特表示，公司在2025年底在所有规模的商户、地区和渠道上均表现强劲，为2026年奠定了良好基础。

CFO Jeff Hoffmeister said the company ended 2025 with strength across all merchant sizes, regions, and channels, setting it up well for '26.

Humana在发布疲软的全年展望后股价下跌，这与联合健康和CVS等管理式医疗同行的疲软指引相呼应。

And Humana is lower after issuing a soft full year outlook, echoing weak guidance for managed care peers, including UnitedHealth and CVS.

Humana预测2026年调整后每股收益至少为9美元，低于市场预期的12美元。

Humana forecasts 2026 adjusted EPS of at least $9 versus the $12 expected.

在华尔街研究专栏中，美银证券表示，过热的资产可能继续调整，但预计关键水平将得以维持。

And in the Wall Street Research Corner, BofA Securities says frothy assets may keep unwinding, but expects key levels to hold.

以下是他们关注的水平。

Here are the levels they're watching.

在科技精选板块SPDR基金（股票代码XLK）上，关键水平为133美元；比特币为58000美元；黄金为每盎司45.50美元。

On the Technology Select Sector Spider, ticker XLK, that's a $133, Bitcoin at 58,000, and gold at $45.50 an ounce.

策略师迈克尔·哈内特表示，华尔街多头如NAG七、加密货币、贵金属和私募信贷与空头如小盘股、必需消费品和能源之间的痛苦价格下跌，反映了持仓峰值、流动性峰值和政治峰值的交织。

Strategist Michael Hartnett said the painful price collapse in Wall Street longs like NAG seven, crypto, precious metals, and private credit versus shorts like small caps, staples, and energy reflects a mix of peak positioning, peak liquidity, and peak politics.

但哈内特表示，除非美元出现系统性飙升且国债收益率随之崩盘，否则这看起来是一次大规模、健康且 overdue 的泡沫清算。

But Hartnett said absent a systemic spike in the dollar and a related meltdown in treasury yields, this looks like a big, healthy overdue unwind in froth.

今天的华尔街午餐就到这里。

That's all for today's Wall Street lunch.

请查看节目说明部分的链接以获取相关文章。

Look for links for stories in the show notes section.

别忘了，这些节目附带的文字稿将在 seekingalpha.com/wsp 上发布。

Don't forget, these episodes will be up with transcriptions at seekingalpha.com/wsp.

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And make sure you're getting the most out of your portfolio with quant news and analysis by heading to seekingalpha.com/subscriptions.