英伟达与杰克逊霍尔会议成为焦点

欢迎收听Seeking Alpha的华尔街早午餐，这是我们周日的节目，展望本周可能影响市场的重大事件，以及周末的头条新闻和分析。

Welcome to Seeking Alpha's Wall Street brunch, our Sunday look ahead to this week's market moving events along with the weekend's top news and analysis.

大家好。

Hello.

今天是8月23日，星期日，我是主持人金·卡恩。

Today is Sunday, August 23, and I'm your host, Kim Khan.

夏季的沉闷即将一扫而空，因为本周股市和债市将迎来重大事件。

The summer doldrums disappear with a huge week ahead for stocks and bonds.

英伟达周三将发布财报，这已成为华尔街最重要的财报事件。

Nvidia stars Wednesday with what has become the biggest earnings event on Wall Street.

周五，美联储主席凯文·沃什将在杰克逊霍尔研讨会上发表主旨演讲，而此时债券市场的“监管者”们正蠢蠢欲动。

And on Friday, Fed chairman Kevin Warsh gives his keynote address at the Jackson Hole symposium at a time when bond vigilantes are stirring.

对于英伟达，投资者将关注AI基础设施需求的最新情况、产品量产时间表、中国业务敞口，以及这家芯片制造商不断扩大的融资合作的经济效益。

With Nvidia, investors will be looking for updates on AI infrastructure demand, product ramp timing, China exposure, and the economics of the chipmaker's expanding financing partnerships.

期权交易员预计，财报发布后英伟达股价将出现约6%的波动。

Options traders are pricing in a roughly 6% move in Nvidia shares following the report.

Seeking Alpha的分析师Mott Capital表示，如果英伟达的业绩不错但不算惊艳，投资者和交易员可能又会陷入业绩公布后的宿醉状态。

Seeking Alpha analyst, Mott Capital, said investors and traders may be left with the post Nvidia earnings hangover again if the numbers are good but not spectacular.

他们指出，股价可能会大幅下跌，最多跌11%，跌至190美元附近的重要技术和期权相关支撑位，而上涨空间似乎有限。

Decline could be sharp, pushing the stock down by as much as 11% to an important area of technical and options related support at a 190, while upside seems limited, they said.

这一业绩可能会在整个半导体和AI领域引起连锁反应。

The results could reverberate across the semiconductor and AI complex.

Marvel Technology、美光、ARM和超威半导体在英伟达公布业绩后，都表现出与英伟达最紧密的股价联动性。

Marvel Technology, Micron, ARM, and Advanced Micro Devices have all shown some of the closest trading correlations with Nvidia following earnings.

接下来看看本周其他财报的安排。

Here's how the rest of the earnings calendar shapes up.

拼多多和小鹏汽车将在周一公布财报。

PDD Holdings and Xpeng report Monday.

Intuit将在周二公布财报。

Intuit reports Tuesday.

周三，除了英伟达，还有CrowdStrike、Salesforce、惠普和Okta也将公布财报。

On Wednesday, Nvidia is joined by CrowdStrike, Salesforce, HP, and Okta.

周四，Marvel和Ulta Beauty发布财报。

Marvel and Ulta Beauty report Thursday.

再看杰克逊霍尔，沃什将在周五东部时间上午10点发表讲话。

Looking to Jackson Hole, Warsh will speak at 10AM eastern time Friday.

在上次新闻发布会上，沃什表示，较高的国债收益率已经在替美联储收紧金融环境。

At his last press conference, Warsh indicated that higher treasury yields were doing the job of tightening financial conditions for the Fed.

但自那以后，收益率上升让白宫感到不安，促使财政部长斯科特·贝森特增加长期债券的回购，试图压低利率。

But since then, higher yields have spooked the White House, leading treasury secretary Scott Bessent, to boost buybacks of longer dated debt in an attempt to tamp down rates.

Seeking Alpha的分析师Geneva Investors表示，这两个人在长期国债上想要的东西正好相反。

Seeking Alpha analysts, Geneva Investors says the two men want opposite things in the long end.

贝森特希望十年期和三十年期收益率降低，而且他已经多次这么说了。

Bessent wants a ten year and thirty year lower and has said so repeatedly, they said.

沃什希望美联储缩小规模，专注于收益率曲线的短端，这从机制上会推高长端收益率。

Warsh wants a smaller Fed footprint concentrated on the front end of the yield curve, which mechanically raises the long end.

贝森特希望有一个大型FEMA设施，这会扩大资产负债表。

Bessent wants a large FEMA facility, which expands the balance sheet.

沃什希望把6.7万亿美元的资产负债表降下来。

Warsh wants the $6,700,000,000,000 balance sheet to come down.

Seeking Alpha的分析师达米尔·托基奇表示，沃什将面临压力，需要应对当前的债券市场抛售，他会重申实际利率在上升，而通胀预期保持稳定，所以这将是一个鸽派信号。

Seeking Alpha analyst, Damir Tokic, said Warsh will be under the spotlight to address the current bond market sell off, and he will restate the real rates are rising while inflation expectations remain anchored, so that will be a dovish message.

他补充说，然而，尽管有这种鸽派信号，名义长期利率仍将继续上升，导致收益率曲线陡峭化。

However, with this dovish message, the nominal long term rates will continue to rise, steepening the yield curve, he added.

本周末的新闻中，加拿大总理马克·卡尼表示，加拿大将从9月8日起对美国进口商品实施报复性关税，以回应特朗普政府对加拿大商品征收的50%新关税。

In the news this weekend, Canadian prime minister Mark Carney said the country will impose retaliatory tariffs on a wide range of US imports starting September 8 in response to the Trump administration's new 50% tariffs on Canadian goods.

他的言论是在双方数周的贸易谈判于上周五晚间破裂后发表的。

His remarks came after weeks of trade negotiations between the two sides collapsed late Friday.

美国的新关税立即生效，可能影响约200亿美元的加拿大出口。

The new US tariffs, which could impact roughly $20,000,000,000 worth of Canadian exports, took effect immediately.

与此同时，特朗普总统在Truth Social上发帖称，加拿大多年来向我们的伟大农民征收了巨额关税。

Meanwhile, president Trump posted on truth social that Canada has charged our great farmers for many years massive amounts of tariffs.

他还说，加拿大想要成为美国一个州的好处，却不想承担作为州的责任。

He added that Canada wants the benefits of being a state without being one.

对于收入型投资者来说，3M公司周一除息，9月11日派息。

And for income investors, three m goes ex dividend Monday, paying out on September 11.

凯悦周四除息，派息日为9月10日。

Hyatt goes ex dividend Thursday with a September 10 payout date.

T-Mobile和eBay周五除息。

T Mobile and eBay go ex dividend Friday.

T-Mobile在9月10日派息，eBay在9月11日派息。

T Mobile pays out on September 10, and eBay on September 11.

今天的华尔街早午餐就到这里。

That's all for today's Wall Street brunch.

相关报道的链接可以在节目笔记部分找到。

Look for links to stories in the show notes section.

别忘了，这些节目会在seekingalpha.com/wsb上发布并附有文字稿，加入精英投资者社区，发掘更多好的投资想法。

Don't forget, these episodes will be up with transcriptions at seekingalpha.com/wsb, and join the elite community of real investors to unearth great investing ideas.

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Just head to seekingalpha.com/subscriptions.