Stocks sink after meeting Warsh the hawk

欢迎收听 Seeking Alpha 的华尔街午餐时间，这里是今天市场动态、新闻与分析的下午更新。

Welcome to Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Lunch, our afternoon update on today's market action, news, and analysis.

下午好。

Good afternoon.

今天是6月17日，星期三，我是您的主持人金·汗。

Today is Wednesday, June 17, and I'm your host, Kim Khan.

今天这期华尔街午餐是特别的美联储专题。

This is a special Fed edition of Wall Street lunch.

新任美联储主席凯文·沃什在央行维持利率不变后，召开了出人意料的鹰派新闻发布会。

New Federal Reserve chairman Kevin Warsh delivered an unexpectedly hawkish debut press conference after the central bank kept rates on hold.

沃什强调要坚决遏制通胀、取消前瞻性指引，并借助他的五人工作组重塑美联储的运作方式。

Warsh stressed defeating inflation, sunsetting forward guidance, and shaking up Fed practice with the help of his Task Force Five.

关于这一决定，你需要了解这些要点。

Here's what to know about the decision.

美联储如市场普遍预期，以全票通过的结果，将利率维持在3.5%至3.75%之间。

The f one c kept rates on hold at three and a half to 3.75% as widely expected with a unanimous vote.

声明字数从上次会议的341字缩减到130字，这符合沃什后来的说法——当前政策环境下，前瞻指引并不合适。

The statement shrank to 130 words from three forty one at the last meeting, in keeping with Warsh's later assertion that forward guidance wasn't suitable for the current policy environment.

声明中提到，委员会将致力于实现价格稳定，也就是其双重使命中的一半。

The statement said the committee will deliver price stability, half of its dual mandate.

沃什也选择不在点阵图上标出任何点。

Warsh also abstained from placing a dot on the dot plot.

不过，其他FOMC成员都标了，他们目前预计2026年会加息。

The rest of the FOMC did, though, and they now price in a hike for 2026.

詹尼公司的策略师盖伊·拉巴赫把这种做法称为‘建设性的模糊’。

Janney strategist Guy Labach called the approach constructive ambiguity.

在新闻发布会上，沃什反复强调价格稳定的重要性。

At the press conference, Warsh hammered home his message on price stability.

美联储的声明指出，通胀主要由货币政策决定。

The Fed statement says that inflation is primarily determined by monetary policy.

那当然了。

You bet it is.

我多年来一直说，通胀是个选择。

I've said for years inflation is a choice.

没错，他说道。

You bet it is, he said.

Warsh表示，FOMC不会改变百分之二的通胀目标，而实现这个目标正是我们一定会做的事。

Warsh said the FOMC would not alter its two percent inflation target, and hitting that target is exactly what we're going to do.

这一切让交易员们感到意外，他们原本以为Warsh会更支持特朗普在第二任期内呼吁的降息。

All this surprised traders who expected Warsh to be more receptive to the rate cuts president Trump has called for throughout his second term.

策略师Tom Graff说，这位美联储主席听起来更像是2008到2020年间那个立场强硬的Warsh，而不是最近这个来应聘职位的人。

Strategist Tom Graff said the Fed chief sounds like the hawkish Warsh we knew from 2008 to 2020, not the more recent guy auditioning for this job.

也许Warsh说得最多的词，除了‘价格稳定’，就是‘工作组’了。

Perhaps the only phrase Warsh said more than price stability was task force.

Warsh表示，他将在五个领域设立工作组或委员会：沟通、资产负债表、数据使用与依赖、生产力与就业，以及通胀框架。

Warsh said he is appointing task forces or commissions in five areas, communications, the balance sheet, data use and reliance, productivity and jobs, and inflation frameworks.

他多次用‘好消息是，我们为此专门成立了工作组’来回应各种问题。

He answered several questions with the good news for you is that we have a task force for that.

Renaissance Macro表示，不是所有的改变都是坏事，但我认为可以合理得出结论，特朗普总统被误导了。

Renaissance Macro said, not all change is bad, but I think it's fair to conclude that president Trump got duped.

如果Warsh的注意力都放在这些委员会上，FOMC内部的鹰派势力就会占据上风。

If Warsh's attention is on a bunch of commissions, the balance of power shifts to the hawks on the FOMC.

问答环节结束时，市场已经认定Warsh的首次亮相明显偏向鹰派。

By the end of the q and a, markets had decided Warsh's debut was decidedly hawkish.

股市应声下跌，标普500指数在决议公布后的两小时内蒸发了1.2万亿美元的市值。

Stocks tumbled with the S and P five hundred shedding $1,200,000,000,000 in market cap in the two hours after the decision.

标普指数收跌1.2%，纳斯达克下跌1.3%，道琼斯指数则下跌1%。

The S and P closed down 1.2%, the Nasdaq fell 1.3%, and the Dow lost 1%.

国债收益率在短期端飙升，两年期国债上升了15个基点，达到4.21%。

Treasury yields jumped to the short end, with the two year up 15 basis points to 4.21.

基准十年期国债上涨了12个基点，升至4.5%。

The benchmark ten year rose 12 basis points to four and a half percent.

不过收益率曲线趋于平坦，长期债券利率降至4.94%，反映出市场对今后经济增长的担忧。

The yield curve flattened, though, with the long bond lower at 4.94%, indicating concern about growth down the line.

美联储甚至让SpaceX的股价跌了，这是它上市以来的首个下跌日。

The Fed even managed to derail the SpaceX train, which posted its first down day since it started trading on Friday.

策略师达里奥·珀金斯说，沃什希望给人的第一印象是个改革者。

Strategist Dario Perkins said, Warsh wants his first impression to be as the reformer.

今年晚些时候我们就能看出这到底意味着什么。

We'll see what that means later this year.

从政策前景来看，跟踪美联储的动向现在更难了。

In terms of policy outlook, Fed watching just got harder.

市场观察者得自己预测经济走势，再判断央行会如何应对。

Fed watchers will have to make their own forecast for the economy and figure out how the central bank will respond.

今天的华尔街午餐就到这里。

That's all for today's Wall Street lunch.

节目笔记里有相关报道的链接，欢迎查看。

Look for links for stories in the show notes section.

别忘了，这些节目全文稿都会发布在SeekingAlpha.com/wsb，也欢迎加入我们的投资者社区，和一群像你一样认真的投资者深入讨论任何股票或ETF。

Don't forget, these episodes will be up with transcriptions at seekingalpha.com/wsb, and join the highest level discussion of any stock or ETF with our community of serious investors like you.

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