国债收益率触及金融危机时期高点

欢迎收听Seeking Alpha的华尔街午餐节目，这是我们对今天市场动态、新闻和分析的下午更新。

Welcome to Seeking Alpha's Wall Street lunch, our afternoon update on today's market action, news, and analysis.

下午好。

Good afternoon.

今天是9月10日，星期四，我是主持人金·卡恩。

Today is Thursday, September 10, and I'm your host, Kim Khan.

目前最重要的新闻是。

Our top story so far.

国债收益率继续攀升，达到了金融危机以来的最高水平。

Treasury yields are on the March higher, hitting levels not seen since the financial crisis.

受全球加息和能源批发价格上涨的推动，十年期国债收益率升至4.93%，创下2008年以来的最高纪录。

Driven by global rate increases and wholesale energy inflation, the ten year yield hit 4.93%, its highest level since 2008.

三十年期国债收益率也升至5.35%，同样是2007年以来的新高。

The thirty year rose to 5.35%, also a new post 2007 high.

今天上午，欧洲央行在商品价格压力下，将关键存款利率上调了25个基点，至2.5%。

This morning, the European Central Bank raised its key deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.5% amid commodity pressures.

紧接着，八月份的生产者价格指数显示，年度批发通胀率升至5.4%，核心PPI也上升至4.6%。

Shortly after, the August producer price index showed annual wholesale inflation rising to 5.4% with the core PPI moving up to 4.6%.

TradeStation的市场策略主管大卫·拉塞尔表示，柴油价格是最令人担忧的问题，因为它是许多商品和服务的成本投入，价格上涨可能会在未来几个月推高非核心通胀。

David Russell, head of market strategy at TradeStation, said diesel prices are the biggest concern because it's an input cost for so many goods and services, and the rise in prices threatens to drive up noncore inflation in the coming months.

Pantheon Macro的塞缪尔·图姆斯直言，这份报告里根本看不到通胀放缓的迹象。

Pantheon macro Samuel Toombs said simply there's no disinflation in this report.

随着国债收益率攀升，市场对下周美联储加息的预期也在升温。

As treasury yields climbed, so did expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike next week.

加息25个基点的概率升至70%，创下一个多月来的最高水平。

Odds of a quarter point hike rose to 70%, the highest level in more than a month.

毕马威首席经济学家黛安·斯旺克表示，无论周五公布的CPI数据如何，那些影响服务业通胀和PCE通胀指标的组成部分都表现强劲且持续。

Diane Swank, chief economist to KPMG, says regardless of what the CPI shows Friday, the components that feed into services inflation and the PCE measure of inflation were hot and persistent.

她说，这再次表明美联储需要加息。

That is yet another reason that the Fed will need to raise rates, she said.

债券市场已经陷入混乱，如果美联储不采取行动，对经济的冲击会更大。

The bond market is already in disarray and would be much harder on the economy if the Fed fails to act.

在经济方面，Anthropic的经济团队发布了一个互动模型，估算人工智能到2030年可能如何重塑美国经济。

Also on the economic front, Anthropic's economics team has released an interactive model estimating how artificial intelligence could reshape The US economy by 2030.

在温和的情况下，人工智能的经济影响类似于互联网。

In the modest case, AI's economic footprint resembles that of the Internet.

GDP最终只比没有人工智能的基准高出1.6%，失业率保持在正常历史范围内。

GDP ends up just 1.6% above a no AI baseline, and unemployment stays within normal historical ranges.

在显著情景下，假设到2030年人工智能自主处理大约一半的知识工作，GDP将比基准高出8.3%，达到36万亿美元，而目前约为31万亿美元，同时总失业率稳定在4.6%左右。

The substantial scenario assumes AI autonomously handles about half of all knowledge work by 2030, pushing GDP 8.3% above the baseline to 36,000,000,000,000 versus roughly 31,000,000,000,000 today, while total unemployment settles around 4.6.

极端情景是，人工智能在几乎所有知识工作任务上比人类更具生产力，并且递归自我改进推动快速采用。

The extreme scenario is that AI becomes more productive than humans across nearly all knowledge work tasks and recursive self improvement drives rapid adoption.

年度GDP增长率可能达到15%，大约每四年半经济翻一番，GDP比基准高出32%，达到44.4万亿美元。

Annual GDP growth could hit 15%, doubling the economy roughly every four and a half years and lifting GDP 32% above baseline to $44,400,000,000,000.

但收益会不平衡，知识工作者的失业率将远超典型的衰退水平，他们的工资可能下降超过10%，资本在GDP中的份额将跃升近15个百分点，达到55%。

But the gains would be lopsided, knowledge worker unemployment would climb well past typical recessionary levels, those workers' wages could fall by more than 10%, and capital share of GDP would jump nearly 15 points to 55%.

在活跃股票中，梅西百货显示出好转迹象，第二季度三个品牌均实现增长，盈利能力也有所提升。

Among active stocks, Macy's is showing signs of a turnaround with q two growth across all three nameplates and improved profitability.

CEO托尼·斯普林斯表示，公司仍专注于扩大那些最受客户欢迎的业务，推出令人兴奋的品牌和商品组合，以及举办有吸引力的活动和体验。

CEO Tony Springs said the company remains focused on scaling what is resonating most with customers, exciting brands and assortments, and compelling events and experiences.

摩根大通将Meta Platforms的评级从中性上调至增持，并将目标价从6.40美元上调至8.20美元，称该公司正进入在核心广告业务之外实现AI变现的早期阶段。

JPMorgan upgraded Meta Platforms to overweight from neutral and raised its price target to $8.20 from $6.40, saying the company is entering the early stages of monetizing AI beyond its core advertising business.

分析师玛格丽特·霍夫曼表示，Meta的Muse Spark 1.3模型与领先的AI模型具有竞争力，即将推出的watermelon模型可能在消费产品、商业智能、广告和内部运营方面带来新的机遇。

Analyst Margaret Hoffman said Meta's Muse Spark 1.3 model is competitive with leading AI models and that the upcoming watermelon model could unlock opportunities across consumer products, business intelligence, advertising, and internal operations.

以隐形眼镜闻名的库珀公司，在下调全年收入和盈利指引后，成为标普500指数中跌幅最大的股票。

And Cooper Companies, known for its contact lenses, is the biggest S and P decliner after cutting guidance for full year revenue and earnings.

在其他值得关注的新闻中，

And in other news of note, Mr.

Pibb已成为2026年增长最快的软饮料品牌。

Pibb has broken out to become the fastest growing soft drink brand in 2026.

整体购买意愿上升了超过11个百分点。

Overall purchase consideration jumped more than 11 percentage points.

修订后的Mr.

The revised Mr.

可口可乐旗下的Pibb，咖啡因含量高出30%，带有辛辣樱桃味和一丝焦糖香。

Pibb, owned by Coca Cola, features 30% more caffeine and a spicy cherry taste with hints of caramel.

一个Mr.

A Mr.

Pibb零糖版也是品牌焕新的一部分。

Pibb zero sugar version was also part of the brand refresh.

它在婴儿潮一代、X世代和千禧一代中人气飙升。

Popularity has surged across baby boomers, generation x, and millennials.

Mr.

Mr.

Pibb始于1972年，是可口可乐推出的胡椒风味软饮，与Dr Pepper竞争。

Pibb began in 1972 as Coke's pepper style soft drink competitor to doctor Pepper.

可口可乐最初在孟菲斯限量发售时用了Peppo这个名字，但Dr Pepper的法律施压迫使公司调整产品，并在测试市场推出了Mister Pibb。

Coca Cola first used the name Peppo in a limited Memphis launch, but legal pressure from doctor Pepper led the company to revise the product and introduce mister Pibb in test markets.

我每小时付你4.5美元，还有所有Mr.

I'll pay you $4.50 an hour and all the Mr.

你可以喝皮博。

Pibb you can drink.

今天的华尔街午餐就到这里。

That's all for today's Wall Street lunch.

在节目笔记部分可以找到相关故事的链接。

Look for links for stories in the show notes section.

别忘了，这些节目会在seekingalpha.com/wsb上发布并附有文字记录。

Don't forget, these episodes will be up with transcriptions at seekingalpha.com/wsb.

还有，别忘了去seekingalpha.com/subscriptions，利用量化新闻和分析来最大化你的投资组合收益。

And make sure you're getting the most out of your portfolio with quant news and analysis by heading to seekingalpha.com/subscriptions.