Wall Street Roundup: AI trade passes the baton

布莱恩·斯图尔特，Seeking Alpha 新闻总监。

Brian Stewart, Seeking Alpha's director of news.

欢迎回来，继续收看本周的华尔街综述。

Welcome back to another week of Wall Street Roundup.

很高兴能来。

Great to be here.

有你真好。

Great to have you.

这周你关注了哪些事情？

What have you been looking at this week?

财报吗？

Earnings?

这是你最关心的事吗？

Has that been top of mind for you?

是的。

Yeah.

这周财报其实不多，因为财报季已经基本结束了。

So there haven't been too many earnings, the earnings season being substantially over at this point.

不过还是有几家公司公布的财报值得聊聊。

But we did get a couple of headline earnings that are worth talking about.

这周博通和慧与科技都发布了业绩报告。

So Broadcom and Hewlett Packard Enterprises both reported this this past week.

两家公司的情况截然不同，表面上看都超出了预期，指引也很强劲。

They're kind of a tale of two stocks where both beat expectations, strong guidance on the surface looked great.

但博通股价跌了大约13%，而慧与科技却涨了近19%。

But Broadcom was down about 13% and HPE was up about 19%.

差别就在于市场对它们未来指引的不同看法。

The difference there is just sort of the perception of the market about their guidance.

博通这边，没上调AI业务的指引，这其实早就在预料之中。

On the Broadcom side, they didn't raise their AI guidance, which was expected.

他们在电话会议上还提到，谷歌打算把部分定制芯片的业务分散出去。

They also suggested in the conference call that Google was going to diversify some of its custom chip work.

所以他们的意思是，未来可能没法像以前那样依赖谷歌了。

So the idea being that they might not be able to rely as heavily on Google as they had in the past.

在财报公布前，博通的股价其实已经涨了不少。

Now Broadcom was up going into the earnings report.

财报发布后收盘，股价还冲到了当天的最高点。

It actually hit its high on the day that the earnings came out after the close.

自三月底以来，股价已经涨了大约70%。

Had risen about 70% since the end of March.

所以市场早就把很高的预期都定价进去了。

So you had a lot of expectation that was sort of built into the stock.

结果财报没能再给出更强的指引，股价就回落了。

And then when it wasn't able to kind of give that last sort of guidance push, the stock came down.

至于惠普企业，核心故事是AI服务器需求在加速增长。

On the HPE side, AI server demand accelerating is the basic story.

这跟上周发布的戴尔情况很相似。

And this is similar to Dell which came out last week.

戴尔的财报出来后，股价涨了33%。

Dell was up 33% on its earnings.

同样，AI支出的强劲势头，大家都能感受到。

Similarly, AI spending, feeling it.

如果往前看，拿博通、惠普和戴尔对比一下，就能看出AI投资的接力棒正在传递。

If you look further back, if you're comparing Broadcom and HP, Dell, you kinda see a passing of the baton in terms of the AI trade.

我觉得这正是我们过去几周一直在讨论的大趋势。

And I think this is a broad theme that we've been talking about the last few weeks.

就是说，之前在AI热潮里领涨的那些股票，现在在投资者眼里已经差不多见顶了。

It's just the idea that some of the stocks that were in the lead of the the AI trade a while ago have now kind of reached their peak in in the eyes of investors.

所以大家开始四处寻找下一个可能爆发的标的。

And so they're looking around for who might be the next breakout stock.

如果看三年的时间跨度，就在今年四月，惠普的股价还和标普500指数差不多。

And so if you look at a three year timeframe, HPE was on par with the S and P five hundred on a three year chart as recently as April.

现在这三年里，惠普股价涨了将近四倍，而标普500只涨了77%。

And so the gains of the stock, the stock is now up about 400% on a three year basis compared to 77% for the S and P five hundred.

但标普500和它之间的差距，大部分都是从四月之后才拉开的，也就是最近几个月。

But most of that distance between the S and P five hundred has happened since April, so the last couple of months.

你会发现，很多股票的爆发都特别新近，而像英伟达、博通这些早期领头羊，股价虽然还在高位盘整，但涨势已经不像那些新崛起的股票那么猛了。

And you can see that with a lot of stocks is is the the breakout is extremely recent where and some of the the early leaders, the the Nvidia's and the Broadcom's are kind of stabilizing at like high levels, but still still not seeing the same sort of upside that you're seeing with some of these other stocks.

苹果下周要开开发者大会了。

Apple's having its developers conference next week.

你有关注这个吗？觉得对投资者来说有什么值得关注的地方吗？

Is that something that you're paying attention to or have any interest in or think that there's value for investors to note there?

是的。

Yeah.

当然了。

Absolutely.

苹果这股票挺特别的，因为它基本上游离在AI热潮之外。

I mean, Apple's an interesting stock in just the sense that I feel like it's kind of apart from the overall AI trade.

明白吧？

Know?

就像有一群AI公司在这边忙自己的事，而苹果则另成一派。

Like you have your sort of cluster of AI companies doing their thing over here, then Apple sort of separate.

当然，苹果也在搞自己的AI投入，但跟Meta或者微软那种规模没法比。

I mean, obviously Apple's got its own AI investments and so forth, but it's not on the level of like a Meta or a Microsoft.

所以，这家公司挺特别的，现在正好在酝酿管理层更替。

And so, it's sort of an interesting company where we have a leadership change in the works.

我觉得随着大会进行，这肯定会成为大家热议的话题。

So, I think that'll be something that'll be heavily talked about as the the conference goes on.

而且，从这次大会上透露出的信息，很可能会为苹果在当前快速变化的市场中制定战略定下基调。

And I I think that a lot of the information that's gonna come out of that is going to sort of set the stage for what is Apple's strategy in the the kind of fast evolving market that we have.

那这周你对市场怎么看？

And what would you say about the market this week?

你对市场的起伏波动，还有地缘政治的影响，有什么看法？

What were your thoughts about the, I guess, up and down nature of things and, you know, geopolitical influence?

你对接下来这一周又有什么预期？

What what are your thoughts, and what are your thoughts going into next week there?

是的。

Yeah.

伊朗的情况就是这样。

So the situation in Iran is what it is.

投资者通常会忽略那些瞬息万变的新闻头条。

People, investors tend to ignore the kind of moment to moment headlines.

我觉得下次真正有动静的时候，无非就是两个选择：重启战争，还是达成最终协议。

I think the next time there'll be some sort of movement there is basically, are we gonna restart the war or are we gonna have a final deal?

在这期间，只要不是这两种极端情况的新闻，我觉得都会被大家忽略。

And like any headline between now and then that isn't one of those two kind of binary options, I think it's just gonna be ignored.

唯一值得说的是，随着冲突持续，像麦当劳这样的公司高管开始出来表示，高油价正在伤害低收入员工，那些没什么可支配收入的人。

The only thing to say on that is as the conflict drags on, you do see CEOs of companies like McDonald's coming out and saying the high gas prices are hurting lower salaried employees, people who don't have a lot of discretionary money to spend.

所以从这个角度看，时间就像倒计时，一旦达到某个临界点，消费者支出可能会突然崩盘。

And so there is sort of a ticking clock in that sense where at a certain point, there might be a tipping point in the economy where you you might just see consumer consumer spending crash.

从宏观层面来看，你还有什么想补充的？

And macro wise, what else would you add?

今天公布了最新的就业数据。

So today we had the the jobs data come out.

报告非常乐观。

Extremely upbeat report.

超过了预期。

Beat expectations.

五月新增就业岗位17万个。

Payrolls were up a 170,000 in May.

四月的数据也被上修了，达到17.9万个。

April payrolls were revised higher, was plus 179,000 for that month.

这些数字算不上惊人，但非常扎实。

Those aren't blockbuster numbers, but they're extremely solid.

就在不久之前，大家还担心劳动力市场会崩溃，经济可能滑向衰退。

And it's coming off a period of time not too long ago where there was real fear that the labor market would sort of capitulate, that we were headed for kind of a recessionary environment.

这显然是个积极的信号。

So positive sign there.

就业数据好于预期，对股市来说的负面影响是，这等于给美联储开了绿灯，让他们可以加息。

The downside in terms of the stock market for the better than expected jobs data is it kind of gives the green light for the Fed to raise rates.

目前通胀依然非常高。

So you still have inflation running extremely high.

这就给美联储施加了压力，必须加息。

So that puts pressure on the Fed to raise rates.

但与此同时，我们还得看看经济整体表现如何。

And the countervailing kind of consideration there is how is the economy doing?

就业市场怎么样？

How jobs doing?

如果就业市场强劲，那就等于给了美联储加息的底气，但这可能对未来经济构成阻力。

And so if the job market is strong, it kinda gives a green light for the Fed to raise rates, which might be a headwind for the economy coming up.

另外要注意的是，科技行业并没有参与到这次就业增长中。

And then one thing to note on the jobs data is the tech is not participating in the job growth.

最近一个月，科技领域的就业岗位是下降的。

So you saw tech jobs down in the latest month.

这是有记录以来科技行业就业数据连续下滑时间最长的一次，自从开始单独统计这些数据以来就没见过。

This is the longest stretch of tech declines in the jobs data in recorded history, you know, since they've been kind of breaking out those numbers.

如今科技行业的衰退期，比2008年甚至2001年互联网泡沫破裂后还要长。

You've seen a longer tech recession now than in 2008 or even in 2001 after the dot com bubble.

当年互联网泡沫破灭时，大量科技岗位消失，但企业很快就重新开始招聘了。

Like after the dot com bubble burst, you saw a lot of tech jobs disappear, but companies began hiring again relatively quickly.

而过去几年科技行业的情况却是持续不断地裁员，一点一点地萎缩。

Whereas what we've seen in the last few years in tech is just sort of this steady losing of jobs.

所以不像2001年那样突然，但持续时间更久，某种程度上也更严重。

And so it's not as abrupt as what happened in 2001, but it's been more prolonged and and in some ways more severe.

目前，人工智能革命正首先在科技行业内部逐步展开。

So you're seeing the AI revolution sort of work its way into tech first at this point.

所以问题来了，这会是个暂时的现象吗？

So the question becomes, or is this gonna be sort of a limited sort of thing?

这个市场将来会怎么演变？

How's that market gonna react over time?

这会不会是那个预警信号呢？

And is it gonna be kind of a canary in the coal mine?

AI会不会从这里扩散出去，开始取代其他行业的工作，进而影响整体就业数据？

Is AI gonna spread out from there, start replacing other jobs in a way that's going to start affecting the headline numbers?

今天是周五，还有什么想对观众说的吗？

Anything else for our lovely audience on this lovely Friday?

没有了。

No.

接下来我们等着看下周公布的通胀数据，能更清楚地看出美联储的想法。

Just looking ahead, we got inflation data coming out next week.

这会给我们提供更多线索，了解美联储接下来会怎么打算。

So that's going to give some further hint into what the the Fed is thinking.

甲骨文要公布财报了。

You've Oracle reporting earnings.

它属于AI概念股里的一家。

It's one of those in the AI cluster of stocks.

所以它公布的数据在贸易方面肯定会很有意思。

So what it has to say is gonna be pretty interesting in terms of that trade.

另外还有几家消费品类公司。

And then there's a few consumer products companies.

比如金宝汤和UvestjM都要发布财报。

So you have Campbell Soup, you have UvestjM reporting earnings.

这样我们就能稍微看看消费者最近是怎么花钱的。

So you're gonna get a little bit of a look in in kind of how consumers are spending their money.

是不是在果酱上花得更多了。

And whether it's on Jam.

没错。

Right.

不管是汤还是果酱。

Whether it's on Soup or Jam.

这些节目配上文字稿会在seekingalpha.com/wsv上线，欢迎加入我们的社区，和一群像您一样认真的投资者一起深入讨论任何股票或ETF。

These episodes will be up with transcriptions at seekingalpha.com/wsv, and join the highest level discussion of any stock or ETF with our community of serious investors like you.

更多内容请访问 seekingalpha.com/subscriptions。

Find us at seekingalpha.com/subscriptions.