华尔街综述：知名公司财报

布莱恩·斯图尔特，Seeking Alpha 的资深新闻总监。

Brian Stewart, Seeking Alpha's stalwart director of news.

一月的最后一期。

The last episode of January.

内容太精彩了。

It's a doozy.

我们有很多话题要聊。

We got a lot to talk about.

是的。

Yeah.

很多事情正在发生。

There's a lot going on.

欢迎回到节目。

Welcome back to the show.

非常感谢。

Thank you very much.

跟我们说说。

Talk to us.

财报、新任美联储主席，各种风波不断。

Earnings, new Fed chair, brouhaha galore.

是的。

Yeah.

我觉得先聊聊财报吧。

I think jumping on earnings.

对吧？

Right?

我们这一周有好几家大公司的财报发布。

So we had a a bunch of big name earnings.

我们有微软。

We had Microsoft.

还有Meta、苹果、特斯拉，过去这一周，财报季的核心部分正式拉开帷幕。

We had Meta, Apple, Tesla this past week, kind of the meat of the earnings season getting going.

我觉得把微软和Meta放在一起看很有趣。

I think it's interesting to look at Microsoft and Meta as a pair.

两家公司都超过了预期。

Both companies beat expectations.

两家公司都披露了更高的资本支出。

Both companies revealed higher capex spending.

对于Meta来说，他们在上个季度的研发支出达到了170亿美元。

For Meta, they're now spending $17,000,000,000 in the past quarter for r and d.

这比去年增长了41%。

That's 41% growth from last year.

第三季度是150亿美元，第二季度是130亿美元。

It was 15,000,000,000 in q three, was 13,000,000,000 in q two.

当年Meta从Facebook更名为Meta的那个季度，他们在研发上的支出只有60亿美元。

Back when Meta changed its name from Facebook to to Meta in like that specific quarter, they had spent 6,000,000,000 on r and d.

你可以看到，他们一直在不断加大支出力度。

So you can just see them like constantly cranking up the amount they're spending.

与此同时，微软和Meta的股价走向了不同的方向。

Meanwhile, the the stocks, Microsoft and and Meta went in different directions.

微软下跌了10%。

So Microsoft was down 10%.

Meta则上涨了约10%。

Meta was up about 10%.

因此，市场对表面上看似相似的消息做出了截然不同的反应，这很有意思。

And so there's kind of a interesting dichotomy in how the market was reacting to what seems on the surface as relatively similar news.

我认为值得关注的一点是，微软和Meta的股价在财报发布前的相对位置。

I think one thing to look at is just the relative placement that Microsoft stock and Meta stock had going into the earnings report.

截至2025年，微软股价一年内上涨了17%，而Meta则下跌了4%。

So as of the 2025, Microsoft was up 17% over a one year basis and Meta was down 4%.

因此，在2025年即将结束时，市场对微软的前景持更乐观的态度。

So you had more of a optimistic view of Microsoft's prospects as we are closing out 2025.

而在财报发布前，Meta在连续六个交易日中有五个交易日上涨。

And then going into the earnings report, you saw Meta rise five out of the six sessions headed into the earnings report.

你看到财报公布后股价跳涨了。

And you see it pop with the the earnings coming out.

所以我觉得微软和Meta正在趋同。

And so I just think you're seeing Microsoft and Meta kind of converging.

你看到市场在定价时，将它们在升级周期中的位置视为差不多。

You're seeing the market pricing them sort of similarly in terms of where they are in in the the upgrade cycle.

我认为你还在看到市场对Meta在基础业务上的努力比对微软更加乐观，而不是单纯关注未来AI的预测。

I think you're also seeing a little bit more optimism about the kind of blocking and tackling that Meta's doing versus Microsoft, just sort of the core business as opposed to the projections for AI going forward.

所以你看Meta的财报，都是基本数据。

So you see in Meta's earnings report, it's basic figures.

第四季度的每位用户平均收入为16.56美元，16.56美元。

Average revenue per person was $16.56, $16.56 for the fourth quarter.

这比去年增长了16%。

That's up 16% from last year.

他们在这一领域已经连续十个季度实现两位数增长。

They've now had ten straight quarters of double digit growth in that area.

2022年时，这一数字为9.57美元。

That figure was at $9.57 in 2022.

所以过去几年里，这一数字增长得相当强劲。

So you're seeing it rise pretty strongly over the last several years.

与此同时，微软在云业务领域仍保持稳健增长，这一直是近期的驱动力。

Meanwhile, at Microsoft, they're still having solid growth in their cloud space, which has been the driver recently.

这似乎可能开始触及峰值。

That seems like it might be starting to hit a peak.

因此，微软方面有些担忧，认为他们在那里正接近上限；而在我看来，Meta则在核心业务执行上表现优异，同时还拥有未来可期的AI投资板块。

So there's a little bit worry at Microsoft that they're kind of reaching their ceiling there, where at Meta, I think the idea is they're doing a great job executing on their core business, and they also have this investment piece, this AI piece that that is on the horizon still.

所以，考虑到股价所处的位置，我认为这只是人们对预期进行的轻微调整。

So, I think just in the place where the stocks were, I think you're just seeing a slight recalibration of people's expectations.

我的意思是，既然它们都是大公司，我们不妨聊聊特斯拉和苹果。

I mean, just because they're big names, I think we should jump into Tesla and Apple.

特斯拉在财报发布后股价略有下跌。

Tesla was down a little on its earnings report.

一开始上涨，但随后在当天逐渐回落。

Initially popped, and then kind of faded as the day went on.

总体而言，该股票仍低于其高位。

The stock in general is hovering off its highs.

作为一家汽车公司，这正是特斯拉过去几年的写照。

As a car company, this is sort of the story of Tesla over the last several years.

所以，作为一家汽车公司，它相当平庸，对吧？

So, as a car company, it's pretty meh, right?

它只是一个利基汽车制造商。

It's a niche car producer.

它远不及福特或通用汽车这样的公司。

It's nowhere near somebody like a Ford or a GM.

在交付量方面，它正被一些电动汽车竞争对手超越。

It's being passed by some of its EV rivals in terms of deliveries.

第四季度的交付量和产量均有所下降，但就股价而言，对于普通特斯拉投资者，尤其是马斯克对公司愿景而言，它更多地被定位为一家科技公司。

Both deliveries and production were down in the fourth quarter, but in terms of the stock price, in terms of your average Tesla investor, and certainly in terms of Elon Musk's vision for the company, it's presented more as a technology company, broadly speaking.

因此，这份财报中蕴含了这样的故事。

And so this earnings report had sort of that story embedded in it.

正如我所说，交付量和产量确实在下降，但你也看到公司正在大力转向那些长期以来一直宣传的其他产品。

Like I said, you have the declines in terms of deliveries and production, but you also see the company making real material shifts towards some of the other products that they've been touting as being on the horizon for a while.

因此，你看到公司暂停了Model S和X的生产，将制造产能转向Optimus人形机器人。

So you're seeing the company halt Model SX production, give that manufacturing capacity to the Optimus human robot.

你还能看到公司在自动驾驶出租车和自研AI芯片方面取得的进展。

You're also seeing the company highlight progress that it's making on robotaxis and proprietary AI chips.

因此，你继续看到公司把自己定位为不仅仅是汽车制造商——汽车只是他们进行更广泛技术革命的试验载体。

So you're continuing to see the company present itself as more than Like the car is just the way to process experiments that there's gonna do a broader sort of technological revolution.

所以我认为，总体而言，投资者仍然认同这一信息。

So I think in general, investors are still on board with that message.

我认为，在这份财报发布后，投资者只是选择观望。

I think in the wake of this particular earnings report, they just sort of figured wait and see.

我们会等到真正实现机器人量产、真正取得自动驾驶出租车进展时再回头看。

We'll check back in when we get some real robot production, when we get, you know, some real robotaxi progress.

接下来我们来看看苹果。

And then just turning to Apple.

苹果在发布财报后股价也略有下跌。

Apple was also down slightly after its earnings report.

从销售额来看，这是一个极为出色的季度。

It was a blockbuster quarter in terms of sales.

iPhone的收入超过了850亿美元。

IPhone revenue topped $85,000,000,000.

服务收入超过了300亿美元。

Services revenue topped $30,000,000,000.

这两个数字都是该公司相应业务板块的季度收入新高。

Those are both quarterly revenue records for those segments of the company.

我认为苹果的问题在于，人们看不到像微软和Meta那样的投资力度。

I think the problem with Apple is that people don't see the same kind of investment they're seeing at places like Microsoft and Meta.

苹果在人工智能领域的进展上显得非常低调。

Apple's being much quieter about the progress it's making on the AI front.

它并没有大张旗鼓，只是默默经营，销售iPhone，同时在背景中隐隐传递着未来将实现其他技术突破的信号。

It's not, it's sort of just going about its business, selling iPhones and having kind of bubbling in the background the idea that it's going to have these other technological jumps in the future.

所以我认为市场对苹果依然持观望态度，认为总有一天我们会看到它们幕后的真正成果。

So I I think the market is just sort of, again, in a wait and see attitude with Apple, thinking at some point, we're gonna we're gonna see what they have behind the curtain.

在个股话题中，你还会提到什么其他内容？

And what else would you put in the stock specific conversation?

是的。

Yeah.

还有几则新闻，因为受到高调财报的掩盖，可能没引起太多关注。

Just a couple of stories that that might have flown a little under the radar given the the high profile earnings reports.

联合健康集团股价大幅下跌。

We had UnitedHealth drop sharply.

它发布了财报，其中包含了负面指引。

It had earnings, and that included negative guidance.

它预测2026年收入将下滑，这是几十年来该公司首次出现收入下降。

It projected a revenue decline in 2026, which is the first time in decades the company has seen a revenue decline.

导致股价下跌的真正原因是，联邦医疗保险和医疗补助服务中心提议将2027年的支付费率仅做极其微小的上调。

The real driver for the stock drop, the stock drops about 20% after its earnings report, was the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services proposed a very tiny fractional increase in the payment rates for 2027.

这影响了联合健康，因为其业务中很大一部分是管理式医疗。

So this impacted UnitedHealth, which has a huge managed care portion of its business.

其他健康保险公司的股价也下跌了。

And then other health insurance stocks dropped as well.

Humana股价下跌了21%。

So Humana was down 21%.

拥有Aetna的CVS股价下跌了14%。

CVS, which owns Aetna, was down 14%.

Molina Healthcare股价下跌了8%。

Molina Healthcare was down 8%.

所以，这个领域的投资者简直就像在没有麻醉的情况下做了扁桃体切除术，你知道的，就是直接把顶部20%的东西切掉了。

So basically, investors in this space got the equivalent of a tonsillectomy without anesthesia, you know, just 20% of the stuff taken off the top.

也许比扁桃体切除术还要糟糕。

Maybe something worse than tonsillectomy.

对于这些投资者来说，这个问题在于这是一个长期情况，你知道的。

The problem with this in terms of these investors is this is a long term situation, you know.

不能仅仅将其视为一个糟糕的季度，因为这些是即将到来的下一年的费率。

It's not it can't be just framed as one bad quarter because, you know, this is the rates that are upcoming for the next year.

因此，从某种程度上说，这本质上是一个政治问题，取决于该行业能否推动提高费率。

So it's really a political story to the extent that this industry can push for higher rates.

接下来转向另一个更积极的故事。

And then turning to another sort of more positive story.

Real Caribbean在财报后上涨了19%。

Real Caribbean rose 19% after its earnings.

指引强于预期，包括收入和利润的两位数增长。

Stronger than expected guidance, including double digit growth in both revenue and earnings.

它强调了强劲的早期预订情况。

It touted strong early bookings.

此外，西南航空在财报后也上涨了19%，同样给出了强劲的预测。

Elsewhere, Southwest also up 19% after its earnings, another strong forecast.

该公司预测，2026年的每股收益将比2025年增长300%。

The company is projecting EPS to rise 300% in 2026 versus 2025.

这其中很大一部分是西南航空特有的情况。

A lot of that is specific to Southwest.

他们目前正处于转型期，正逐渐与其他航空公司保持一致。

They're going through a transition now where they're kind of moving more in lockstep with the rest of the airline industry.

因此，他们从行李费和机上腿部空间收费等项目中获得了更多收入。

So they're getting more revenue from things like baggage charges and charging for more leg room on planes.

简单来说，就是采用这种模式：你购买机票后，还得为每一个小的升级服务额外付费。

So just basically going to that model where, you know, you buy your ticket, but then you have to pay for every sort of little upgrade that you want.

但就该公司预计2026年的盈利能力来看，这种模式似乎奏效了。

But in terms of the profitability that the company is foreseeing for 2026, it seems to be working.

总体来看，我们只讨论了两家公司，因此不能将它们视为整个旅游和休闲行业的风向标。

And just taking the two companies in general, I mean, we're only talking two stocks and so it can't be seen as a, you know, harbinger for the entire travel and and leisure industry.

但从经济实力的角度来看，如果人们在购买邮轮票或乘坐飞机旅行，这表明市场对这类服务仍有潜在需求。

But just in terms of like economic strength, you know, if people are buying cruises or people are are getting on planes and and traveling, it it shows that there's underlying demand for for that kind of stuff.

那么到了下周财报季，你最期待关注什么？

And then when it comes to earnings next week, what are you looking forward to?

大公司方面，亚马逊将在周四发布财报。

So big ones, Amazon on Thursday.

谷歌母公司字母表将在周三发布财报。

Alphabet is on Wednesday.

我认为亚马逊刚刚宣布了新一轮裁员，取消了一些公司职位，基本上用人工智能来替代它们。

I think Amazon Amazon just announced another round of layoffs, getting rid of some corporate jobs, replacing basically those with AI.

所以我期待他们能提供更多关于未来计划的细节。

So I think more color on that with their their plans on going forward.

之前曾有传闻说亚马逊打算结束与美国邮政服务的合作，转而自行完成更多配送，逐步扩大自己的配送车队。

There had been talk earlier about Amazon moving away from its partnership with the US Postal Service, doing more deliveries on its own, sort of building out that fleet.

所以也许会有关于这一点的更多信息。

So maybe more on that.

显然，AWS将是关键驱动因素，毕竟人们都会重点关注这一块。

Obviously, AWS is gonna be the key driver for I mean, that's what people are gonna dig in for that one.

所以我觉得作为科技股，AWS部分会很有趣。

So I think it'll be interesting as a tech play just in the AWS part of it.

我也觉得亚马逊在经济层面也很有意思。

I also think Amazon's also interesting just in the economic front.

即使你不是亚马逊的股东，我认为他们的财报也能反映出消费者状况和市场动态。

Even if you're not an Amazon shareholder, I think their earnings speak a lot about the consumer and and what's going on there.

就像我之前说的，还有一些公司内部的事情可能会带来有趣的更新。

And then, like I said before, there's a couple of of inter company things that that might be interesting to get updates on.

然后是谷歌，它和微软、Meta、苹果等公司属于同一类。

And then Alphabet, think falls into the same category as the the Microsofts, the Metas, the Apples of the world.

这些大型科技公司，它们在当前业务上的执行情况如何？未来对人工智能有什么计划？

Just, you know, big tech players, how well are they executing on their their current business and what are their plans for AI in the future?

我觉得人们会密切关注谷歌的支出计划。

I think there's gonna be a lot of looking at Alphabet spending plans.

它们是否属于那种‘不惜一切代价’的阵营？

Are they sort of in the the medic camp where, you know, no price is too high?

还是说，他们在投资上更加谨慎？

Or, you know, are they being more sort of judicious about their investments?

更像苹果那种模式。

More kind of an Apple model there.

此外，其他值得关注的股票还有优步、高通，以及一批制药公司即将发布财报。

And then just among other notable stocks, you got Uber, you got Qualcomm, and then a bunch of a bunch of pharmaceutical stocks are coming out.

默克、礼来、辉瑞。

Merck, Lilly, Pfizer.

所以，也要关注这些公司。

So, keep an eye on those as well.

是的。

Yes.

在我们试图理解这些行业的发展趋势以及它们将如何增长和演变时，沿途会有很多线索和明确的事实可供捕捉。

Lots of clues and outright, you know, facts to to be picked up along the way as we try and understand the trajectory of these sectors and how they're gonna grow and evolve.

所以确实很多。

So a lot yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

请说。

Go ahead.

我正想说，关于休闲领域，迪士尼也要发布了。

Well, I was just gonna say, like, on the leisure front too, Disney's coming up.

所以，如果你在关注西南航空、皇家加勒比这类板块，我认为迪士尼及其主题公园等相关业务在这方面会非常有参考价值。

So if you're following up on sort of the Southwest Royal Caribbean kind of piece of the market, I think Disney and their theme parks and and that kind of thing, I think it be very useful in that front.

是的。

Yes.

当然。

Absolutely.

谈到宏观新闻，我们著名的主持人朱莉·摩根告诉我们，凯文·沃什很可能在清晨稍晚些时候被提名，而金·汗刚刚发布了一期关于沃什先生任命的精彩特别节目。

When it comes to macro news, we had our illustrious host, Julie Morgan, talking to us that Kevin Warsh was probably going to be picked in the later hours of the morning, and Kim Khan just released a fantastic special episode about mister Worsch's appointment.

关于美国新任美联储主席，你还有什么要补充的吗？

What would you add to this conversation about our new Fed chair in America?

是的。

Yeah.

我很难再说出比金更深入的看法了。

It's hard for me to say more than than Kim would.

我会建议听众一定去听听那一期节目。

I would point listeners to to check out that for sure.

我认为这件事最有趣的一点是，特朗普提名自己人接替鲍威尔，政治紧张局势可能会因此稍微缓和一些。

I think the most interesting part of this is well, for for one thing with Trump nominating his own person to succeed Powell, You're gonna see the the political temperature turn down a little bit.

但我确实认为，人们会担心美联储的独立性，因为鲍威尔一直以来都非常坚定，划出了一条非常清晰的界限。

And but I do think that there's gonna be concerns about the independence of the Fed in the sense that Powell was extremely like, he drew a very bright line.

他不会受到外界影响。

He was not going to be influenced.

他不会被胁迫。

He was not gonna be bullied.

他会做他认为正确的事。

He was going to do what he thought was right.

我认为许多投资者和市场观察人士对鲍威尔认为正确的事感到不满。

And I think a lot of investors and a lot of market watchers had issues with what Powell thought was right.

我认为很多人觉得他在后疫情环境中反应太慢了。

I think a lot of people thought he was late in the post pandemic environments.

他让通胀一度失控，随后又未能迅速遏制，我们至今仍在承受其后果。

He let inflation get out of control a little bit and then wasn't able to tamp it down fast enough, and we're still sort of living with the aftermath of that.

因此，人们可以对鲍威尔提出很多批评，但他始终坚持的一点是美联储与政府政治部门之间的明确界限。

So I think there's a lot of criticism that can be laid at Powell, but the one thing that he was unbending about was the the bright line between the Fed and the sort of political parts of the government.

因此，由于沃什的任命来自特朗普，我认为我们得看看他会怎么说。

And so with Worsch owing his appointment to Trump, I think it becomes we'll have to see what he says.

对吧？

Right?

作为投资者，我认为他坚持这一界限将至关重要。

Like, we I think as investors, him holding that line would be really important.

关于沃什，我觉得另一件有趣的事是，很难看出他的真实立场。

The other thing about Worsch that I find interesting is it's a little hard to to kind of see where his head is at.

他以前在美联储时，被视为鹰派人物。

When he was on the Fed previously, he was seen as a hawk.

在大衰退和金融危机之后，他曾公开反对本·伯南克的宽松货币政策。

He kind of clashed openly with Ben Bernanke's easy money policies in the the wake of the the great recession and the financial crisis.

但最近，他更多地谈论技术带来的通缩影响，基本上认为美联储可以允许经济运行得更宽松一些，不必对通胀那么严格，因为技术和整体市场本身也会在一定程度上缓解这些问题。

But lately, he's been talking more about the disinflationary impact of technology, basically suggesting that the Fed can can let things run a little more, like like be less strict in their view on inflation because technology and the markets in general are gonna kind of take care of some of that as well.

所以这挺有意思的。

So it it it's interesting.

我的意思是，他担任美联储理事已经是十多年前的事了。

I mean, the his service on the Fed was more than a decade ago now.

对吧？

Right?

因此，他的观点从那时起有所变化并不奇怪，但人们肯定会密切关注，尤其是在他的确认听证会等场合，确切了解他在鹰派与鸽派之间的立场。

So the idea that his ideas might have shifted from that point isn't unusual, but it'll be I think people are gonna be looking closely, especially during his confirmation hearings and and things like that, exactly where he is in terms of kind of the hawkish, dovish divide.

是的。

Yes.

是的。

Yes.

有太多值得关注的事情了。

So much to pay attention to.

从宏观角度来看，你怎么看待我们看到的数据？

What would you say about the data we're seeing from the macro perspective?

下周是个关键节点。

So next week's a big one.

下周将公布最新的就业数据。

Next week's the the latest jobs data.

上个月的就业数据相当平淡。

The previous jobs data was pretty underwhelming.

当月仅增加了5万个就业岗位，表现非常疲软。

50,000 jobs added during the month, which is pretty anemic.

我不是在做预测，但很有可能通过修正后数据会跌入负值。

I I you know, I'm not making a prediction, but it's highly possible that we could see that dip into the negative with a revision.

也有可能被向上修正。

It could also be revised higher.

所以我们等着看修正结果如何。

So we'll we'll see what happens with revisions.

在过去大约一年到十八个月里，之前月份的数据被向下修正是很常见的。

It's been pretty common over, I'd say, the last like year, eighteen months to see previous months revised lower.

所以要留意这一点。

So kinda keep an eye on that.

失业率之前上升过，然后又回落了，最近一次又再次下降。

And then the unemployment rate had risen and then dipped again, dipped back in the latest.

目前失业率是4.4%，这个水平没问题。

It's now sitting at 4.4%, which is fine.

你知道的，这完全在正常范围内。

You know, it's well in the fine range.

但它的趋势会再次下滑吗？

But the direction that that's taking, like is it gonna drift lower again?

我们一直听到一些关于裁员的零星消息，类似的情况。

Or we've been getting anecdotal news of layoffs and things like that.

亚马逊，就是我之前提到的那家。

Amazon, you know, the one that I mentioned earlier.

所以看看这些因素在多大程度上影响了整体经济。

So see how much of that is sort of playing a part in the overall economy.

关于本周发布的消费者信心报告，你有什么看法？它跌到了疫情以来的最低点。

Anything you would say about the consumer confidence report that was released this week that it was like the lowest since the pandemic.

我得承认，当前的经济形势很难理清。

I have to admit that the the economic situation is hard to parse.

对我来说，情况看起来非常模糊。

It it seems real cloudy to me.

有很多

There's a lot

多云，还带着点党派之争的可能？

of Cloudy with a chance of partisanship?

是的。

Yeah.

百分之百。

A 100%.

如果你随便刷一刷，会看到很多文章，标题都是类似‘如果经济没那么糟，为什么感觉这么差’这样的角度。

There's a lot of articles, if you just scroll, you know, you see headlines of like, why does the economy feel so bad if it's not so bad kind of angles on it.

我觉得现在有一种普遍感受，因为当前经济的严峻性主要体现在通胀方面，你知道，物价仍然高于美联储的目标。

I think there is sort of a feeling of because a lot of the the harshness in the economy now is in on the inflation front, you know, prices are still rising higher than the Fed target.

我的意思是，虽然已经从高点回落了，但我们还是看到物价在上涨。

I mean, it's it's down from where it was, but we're still seeing higher prices.

而且过去几年上涨的物价显然还都留在那里，你知道的。

And and obviously, the higher prices that came into effect over the past few years are still there, you know.

我的意思是，你去麦当劳都会被价格吓一跳。

I mean, you get sticker shock just going to McDonald's.

而且我觉得人们每天都切身感受着。

And I think people live that day to day.

对吧？

Right?

所以，我觉得这就像走在冰雹风暴中。

And so, think it's just sort of like, it's like walking through a hailstorm.

你明白我的意思吗？

You know what I mean?

就像每走一步，都有小冰雹打在你身上。

Like, it's like little tings on you like every step you take.

我觉得，这使得消费者更持续地感受到经济状况。

And I think So, I think that makes consumers feel the economy more constantly.

因为，在一种主要问题是失业的情况下，

Because, know, like in a situation where, say the main problem in the economy is a lack of jobs.

失业率在上升，你会看到每月就业数据的负面消息。

And the unemployment rate is going up and you know, you see negatives for the monthly employment rate.

你要么有工作，要么没有。

Like you either have a job or you don't.

所以，如果你受到经济不景气的影响，就会丢掉工作。

So, if you're affected by the bad economy, you lose your job.

这太可怕了，对吧？

That's horrific, right?

但大多数人不会受到影响。

But most people aren't gonna be affected.

即使在经济衰退期间，大多数人还是会保住工作。

Even even in a recession, most people are going to keep their jobs.

所以，你主要是通过看到身边的人受影响而感受到影响。

So you're sort of affected personally by seeing people around you getting affected.

而价格上涨则总是或多或少地影响每个人。

Whereas the the higher prices kind of affects everybody a little bit all the time.

所以我认为，就消费者信心而言，这可能是一个影响因素。

So I think in terms of consumer confidence, I think that might play a part in it.

就是感觉每天都在艰难前行，你知道的，这正是为什么我认为可负担性在政治上成了关键口号。

It's just it just feels like a slog day to day, you know, which is why I think affordability has become sort of the watchword politically.

然后，你知道，中期选举就要来了。

And then, you know, we have the midterms coming.

所以，你关于伙伴关系对人们理解经济至关重要的观点，我认为是对的，因为我觉得这场辩论会进一步升级。

So, your point about partnership being like critical to the way people are metabolizing the economy, I think that's true because I think that you're going to see that debate ratchet up.

在未来几个月里，你会看到政客们不断告诉消费者，可负担性是个问题。

You're gonna see politicians telling consumers constantly over the next few months that affordability is a problem.

所以，我认为这进一步强化了消费者已有的感受。

So I think that sort of reinforces the feeling that consumers already have.

如果它走路像通胀，感觉像通胀，那它真的是好消息吗？

If it walks like inflation and feels like inflation, is it in fact good news?

布莱恩，本周还有什么最后的话要说吗？

Any final words for this week, Brian?

收益还在持续发布，所以我认为这将是下周的关键话题。

Earnings keep rolling on, so I think that'll be the the watchword for for next week.

所以，你知道，在特朗普任期至今的这段时间里，你总是无法预料会不会出现类似委内瑞拉或格陵兰那样的情况。

So, you know, it it's been a situation in the last you know, through Trump's term so far, is you kinda never know if there's something going to be like a Venezuela situation, a Greenland situation.

我们差点因为明尼阿波利斯的冲突导致政府部分停摆。

We, you know, almost had a partial shutdown of the government over the clashes in Minneapolis.

所以，那些看似与市场、与经济无关的事情，实际上可能会影响经济，因此你必须得有所准备——我认为投资者已经习惯了这种状况。

So, the things that feel separate from markets, separate from the economy can kind of steer into the economy, and so you just have to be sort of I think investors And I think the investors have gotten used to this.

你必须更及时地应对新闻，并采取适当的行动。

You have to be a little bit more ready to take in the news and do what's appropriate.

我们必须保持灵活。

We've got to be nimble.

对。

Right.

灵活。

Nimble.

这正是我想找的那个词。

That's the word I was looking for.

太完美了。

That's perfect.

为了敏捷性。

To nimbleness.

下周再聊。

Talk to you next week.

听起来不错。

Sounds good.

下周再聊。

Talk to you next week.

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