战争笼罩就业报告

欢迎来到Seeking Alpha的华尔街早午餐，我们将在此为您前瞻本周影响市场的重大事件，以及周末的最新新闻与分析。

Welcome to Seeking Alpha's Wall Street brunch, our Sunday look ahead to this week's market moving events along with the weekend's top news and analysis.

你好。

Hello.

今天是2月1日，星期日，我是您的主持人金康。

Today is Sunday, February 1, and I'm your host, Kim Kang.

本周将迎来又一波巨头公司和宏观层面的动态。

This week brings another dose of the mega and the macro.

更多科技巨头的财报将与1月份的就业报告一同公布。

More mega cap earnings arrive alongside the January jobs report.

经济学家预计，上个月非农就业岗位增加了6.8万个，失业率保持在4.4%不变。

Economists spec nonfarm payrolls rose by 68,000 last month with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.4%.

但这一次，就业数据背后另有玄机。

But this time, the job numbers come with a twist.

实际数据的重要性可能逊于新任美联储主席提名人凯文·沃什对这些数据的解读。

The actual figures may play second fiddle to what new Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh has to say about them.

如果就业数据高于预期，他还会坚持白宫的立场，认为利率需要下调吗？

If payrolls come in hotter than expected, does he still stick to the White House script that rates need to come down?

Seeking Alpha分析师Hawk Invest表示，随着人工智能为企业提供了增加裁员和取消新招聘的选择，劳动力市场可能从现在开始迅速恶化。

Seeking Alpha analyst Hawk Invest says the labor market could deteriorate rapidly from here with AI giving companies an option to increase layoffs and forego new hires.

他们补充说，如果就业市场持续疲软，可能会在2026年前缓解通胀压力，使美联储的降息空间大于一些政策制定者目前的预期。

They add that if the job market continues to soften, it could ease inflation pressures through 2026 and give the Fed more room to cut than some policymakers currently expect.

转向财报日程，本周还有两家巨头公司公布业绩。

Turning to the earnings calendar, two more mega caps are up this week.

谷歌将于周三公布财报，亚马逊将于周四公布财报。

Alphabet reports Wednesday, and Amazon reports Thursday.

市场预计亚马逊的每股收益为1.94美元，营收约为2110亿美元，分析师普遍倾向于预期正面意外。

Amazon is expected to post EPS of a dollar 94 on revenue of 211,000,000,000 or so, and analysts are leaning toward the upside surprise.

Nova Capital的Seeking Alpha分析师表示，AWS的产能扩张，包括第四季度新增超过1吉瓦的容量，有望在人工智能基础设施需求持续超过供应的情况下，将积压订单转化为收入。

Seeking off analysts at Nova Capital says AWS capacity additions, including more than a gigawatt in Q4, could help convert backlog into revenue as AI infrastructure demand continues to outpace supply across regions.

Nova还指出，亚马逊最近裁员约10%的公司员工，这可能是另一个利好因素，因为公司正从高成本劳动力转向人工智能驱动的代理和机器学习模型。

Nova also points to Amazon's recent layoffs, roughly 10% of its corporate workforce, as of another potential tailwind as the company shifts from high cost labor toward AI driven agents and machine learning models.

这一主题仍在科技巨头中回响。

That theme is still echoing across big tech.

除了这些巨头公司，本周的安排也非常密集。

Beyond the mega caps, it's a packed week.

周一将公布Palantir（Seeking Alpha的热门股）和迪士尼的财报。

Monday brings results from Palantir, a seeking off a favorite, and Walt Disney.

周二则有AMD、默克、百事可乐、安进和辉瑞的财报发布。

Tuesday is busy with AMD, Merck, PepsiCo, Amgen, and Pfizer.

周三有礼来、艾伯维、优步和高通的财报。

Wednesday has Eli Lilly, AbbVie, Uber, and Qualcomm.

壳牌公司周四公布财报，周五以丰田和菲利普莫里斯收尾。

Shell reports Thursday, and Friday wraps with Toyota and Philip Morris.

本周末的新闻显示，比特币跌至8万美元以下，为自2025年4月以来的最低水平，这是其连续第四个月下跌。

In the news this weekend, Bitcoin slipped below 80,000, the lowest level since April 2025, marking its fourth straight monthly drop.

整个加密货币市场的总市值下跌了约4%，低于2.8万亿美元；根据CoinGecko的数据，比特币的市值已跌至低于特斯拉，成为全球第十二大资产。

The total crypto market is down about 4%, below $2,800,000,000,000, while Bitcoin has slipped behind Tesla to become the world's twelfth largest asset by market cap according to CoinGecko.

但尽管如此，Seeking Alpha投资团体负责人詹姆斯·福特仍持有强烈买入评级，保持看涨态度。

But with a strong buy rating, Seeking Alpha investing group leader James Ford remains bullish.

最终，我认为我们很可能会看到资金轮动到比特币，”他说。

Ultimately, I think we could very well see rotation into Bitcoin, he said.

这种情况以前发生过。

It's happened before.

这背后有基本面的支持，技术面也配合到位。

There are fundamental reasons to support this, and technicals also line up.

对于收益型投资者来说，花旗银行将在周一除息，股息支付日期为2月27日。

And for income investors, Citigroup goes ex dividend Monday, paying out February 27.

万通保险将在周二除息，股息支付日期为3月10日；瓦莱拉将在周四除息，股息支付日期为3月9日。

MetLife goes ex dividend Tuesday with a March 10 payout date, and Valera goes ex dividend on Thursday, paying out March 9.

今天的华尔街早午餐就到这里。

That's all for today's Wall Street brunch.

请查看节目说明部分的链接以获取相关文章。

Look for links to stories in the show notes section.

别忘了，这些节目全文稿会在seekingalpha.com/wsb上发布。

Don't forget, these episodes will be up with transcriptions seekingalpha.com/wsb.

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