BTC251：科技丰裕时代与杰夫·布斯对话

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大家好，欢迎收看本周三发布的《比特币基本面》播客。本期节目，我请回了作家、企业家兼科技专家杰夫·布斯。之所以请杰夫来，是因为我有一个重大宣布，而他正是我向大家展示节目新增方向和范围的最佳人选。我不想透露太多，咱们就直接进入节目吧。

Hey, everybody. Welcome to this Wednesday's release of the Bitcoin fundamentals podcast. On this week's show, I have back author, entrepreneur, and technology expert, Jeff Booth on the show. And the reason Jeff is here is because I have a big announcement, and, he's the perfect person for me to present this additional direction and scope of the show with. I don't wanna give away too much, so we're just gonna jump right into the show.

希望你们喜欢。

I hope you guys enjoy.

庆祝十周年，您正在收听《投资者播客网络》出品的《比特币基本面》。现在请主持人普雷斯顿·派什登场。

Celebrating ten years, you are listening to Bitcoin fundamentals by The Investors Podcast Network. Now for your host, Preston Pysh.

大家好，欢迎收看节目。今天和我一起的是独一无二的杰夫·布斯。欢迎回来。

Hey, everyone. Welcome to the show. I'm here with the one and only Jeff Booth. Welcome back.

见到你太高兴了，兄弟。

It's so great to see you, buddy.

嘿。这次讨论的契机，其实源于你我之间一次坦诚的对话，关于我想把节目带向何方。我很快意识到，我们俩之间的对话或许正好能为我接下来的计划架起桥梁。感谢你抽空，也谢谢你一直以来的支持，杰夫，你不仅是我的好朋友，更是我的导师。谢谢你来跟我聊这些。

Hey. So the impetus for this discussion kind of percolated out of you and I just having a candid conversation on where I wanted to go with the show. And what I'm trying to do and what we quickly realized is that a discussion between the two of us might be warranted to kind of bridge in where I plan on going with all of this. So I appreciate you making time and just, you know, I mean, you're obviously a good friend, but I also look at you as a mentor as well, Jeff. So thank you for coming on and having this conversation with me.

没问题。你想直接扔炸弹吗？

No problem. Do you wanna drop the bomb right away?

我觉得可以。说到底，我们为什么做这期节目？这到底是为了什么？那我就先开头，你觉得需要补充的地方随时插话。我真的想在节目里聊更多话题。我每周都在讲比特币。

I think we should. I think, you know, like, why are we doing this? What is this all about? So I guess I'll start off and obviously chime in where you feel it's pertinent, but I really wanna cover more things on the show. Like, I cover Bitcoin every single week.

作为一名工程师，也是个天生好奇的人，我在观察未来十年我认为会发生的一切，我觉得接下来的十年将彻底疯狂，会有翻天覆地的变化，我想从多个角度去探讨这些变化。首先，杰夫，你的《明天的价格》这本书的论点，彻底改变了我看待一切的方式。技术通缩这个概念，让我重新审视经济学、重新审视比特币。我已经是比特币支持者了，但它让我对已知的一切有了更深层的理解，因为我终于意识到，技术随着时间呈复合通缩，而法币则在相反方向呈复合通胀。

And as an engineer and as somebody who's just deeply curious in general, I'm looking at everything that's what I think is gonna play out in the coming ten years, and I think that this coming decade is going to be completely nuts. I think there's gonna be so much change, and I kinda wanna cover a lot of this, and I wanna cover it from different angles. And first and foremost, your thesis, Jeff, of the price of tomorrow was a massive change in just in shift in how I think about everything. Like, this idea of deflation in technology is something that just changed how I was looking at economics, how I was looking at Bitcoin. I was already a Bitcoiner, but it just entrenched everything that I thought I knew in a much deeper way because I wasn't looking at technology as a thing that was compounding with time in the opposite direction of what the fiat was compounding in the other direction.

当你把这些东西结合在一起时，我的大脑简直要爆炸了。所以，我想用很多话来表达的就是：我想开始报道机器人、人工智能、核能，以及所有这些看似各自独立、实则都指向一场货币革命的技术。我觉得它们彼此交汇、相互关联，我想把它们全部覆盖到。

And when you kinda combine those things together, it was just like my mind exploded. And so this is what I'm trying to say in a lot of words, I guess. I wanna start covering robotics. I wanna start covering AI. I wanna start covering nuclear and the whole gambit of all of these technologies that seem to be each their own vector kind of all pointing to this idea of a monetary revolution, I think that they all intersect and they all interrelated, and I wanna start covering all of that.

来吧，Jeff，把我们电话里聊的那些告诉观众。

So go ahead, Jeff. Tell the audience what you told me when we were talking on the phone.

我只是觉得这完全说得通。我认识你很久了，你一直对世界走向极度好奇，而且只要新信息合理，你就敢于改主意——这是数学约束。我觉得这就是你的播客如此成功的原因：大家一路跟随你的旅程。现在，把你已知的用上，你已经把比特币挖了个底朝天，每个角落都没放过。

I just thought it made perfect sense. I've known you now for quite a while, but we've always known you to be super curious about where the world's going and actually not afraid to change your mind on something if new information makes sense. And that's a math constraint. It's actually I think it's why your podcast is so successful because that's what you've done and the people followed your journey the entire time. And so now take what you know, and you've chased Bitcoin to the ground every hole, every spot.

我不是说你放弃比特币，而是说，作为基础层，你已经把它追到底了。比特币印证了自由市场是通缩的，而我们从未经历过。

And I don't think you're not saying you're giving up on Bitcoin. You're just saying this is a base layer forced aside. I've chased it to the ground. It is Bitcoin. It reinforces that the premarket is deflation, and we've never lived in one.

只要比特币保持去中心化与安全，我们生活在通缩中就不可避免。那就去探索让这一切加速的其他技术吧。而当我们说“技术”时，我听你描述，它们并不是别的东西，而是我们发明的新工具来解决问题。

If Bitcoin stays decentralized and secure, it is inevitable that we are living in one. Let's explore the other technologies that are allowing that to accelerate. And so exploring some of those other technologies. When we say technologies, when I hear you describe them, they're not other things. They're us inventing new things to be able to solve problems.

创意才是技术的根基；如今我们有了这一基础层，让所有这些丰裕流向我们所有人。自由市场极度竞争，人人都得争相为你提供价值。如果你持有比特币，身处比特币生态，所有这些丰裕都会流向你。所以你把这一切看在眼里。

Our ideas that are the basis of technology, and that's what now we have a base layer that allows all of that abundance to flow to all of us. Where the free market is, it's massively competitive. Everyone has to compete to provide value to you. And if you're holding Bitcoin, if you're part of the Bitcoin ecosystem, all of that abundance is flowing to you. So you're looking at all of that.

如果你处在法币体系里，所有这些丰裕会被抽走，集中起来对付你。你已经把比特币理解到骨子里了，我相信你会不时把它编织进来，因为让大家明白这种现象很重要。但我喜欢你即将去探索其他隧道的好奇心。

If you're part of the atheist system, all of that abundance is being extracted from you and centralized against you. And so you already understand Bitcoin. You understand it to the sand. So I'm sure you're gonna weave it in from time to time because it's important that people understand that phenomenon, what's happening. But I love that you're gonna go and explore your mind, your curiosity to explore some of these other tunnels.

我依旧会报道比特币，只是可能不再每周都讲，但我还会请嘉宾来聊比特币及其新进展。从我的视角看，我看到其他主权国家正在采用它，看到大量公司正在采用它，也看到纯粹技术层面的进展——这些我们在节目里已经聊得够多了。

I'm still gonna cover Bitcoin. I just, you know, it might not be every week, but I'm still gonna bring on guests and talk about Bitcoin and whatever new is developing. But I guess from my vantage point, I'm looking at other nation states that are adopting it. I'm looking at the number of corporations that are adopting it. I'm looking at it from just a pure technical standpoint, which we've covered ad nauseam on the show.

我就是看不出有什么能长期取代或超越它。但当我看着这些其他事物——比如这个人形机器人带来的通缩，AI，以及用来训练人形机器人的虚拟世界等等——我就想，未来十年绝对会疯狂。

And I'm saying, I just don't see what's going to supplant it or what's going to outpace it long term. But I'm looking at all these other things, and I'm saying the deflation that's happening, like this optimist robot, humanoid robot. Like, we we'll talk about that, I guess, a little bit more. But when I'm looking at things like that, I'm looking at AI, and I'm looking at these virtual worlds that they're using to train the potentially trained humanoid robots and all this kind of stuff. And I'm thinking, this is gonna be absolutely insane in the coming decade.

我把这些和我在比特币上看到的东西结合起来，就会想：那些拼命印纸的主权实体，怎么可能从丰裕角度跟比特币或这一切的发展方向竞争？我觉得这个故事远比比特币本身大得多。我想逐一覆盖这些话题，也想讲清它们如何被缝合在一起、如何从更大的图景相互关联，从而或许能看清我们以为的终点。就这样。

And I'm combining that with what I'm seeing in Bitcoin, and I'm saying, how in the world can any of these sovereign entities that are just printing pieces of paper at a breakneck pace, possibly compete with Bitcoin or where this is all going from an abundance standpoint. And I just think the story is so much bigger, like so much bigger. And I just wanna kind of I wanna cover each one of these topics, but I also wanna cover how they get stitched together and how they're all interrelated from a much bigger picture to kinda maybe understand where we think a lot of this is going. So yeah.

是的。所以我们继续聊下去。我们就顺着这些线索聊下去。这些线索值得深挖，因为我发现大多数比特币玩家至今仍未明白，自由市场的自然状态是通缩，价格本该下跌。如果你用比特币计价，价格正以技术发展的同样速度在下跌。

Yeah. So let's just keep on it. Let's just have a conversation and pull on these threads. And these threads are important to pull on because I'm interested in most Bitcoiners still today are not understanding that the natural state of the free market is deflation and prices should fall. And if you're measuring in Bitcoin, prices are falling at the same rate since that technology is growing.

对吧？所以如果你用比特币衡量事物，而不是把比特币换成那张纸，你就会完全明白我在说什么。如果你的世界观模型是正确的，它就该与现实完全吻合。我提出的模型就是：比特币带来自由市场通缩，技术会加速——不是线性加速。

Right? So if you measure things from Bitcoin instead of convert Bitcoin to your piece of paper, then you'll see exactly precisely what I'm saying. Your model of the world should match, if it's correct, should match exactly what's happening. So the model I laid out in the world and is Bitcoin is free market deflation, technology is gonna accelerate. It's not accelerating.

而是指数级加速。我们过去没把金融因素算进去。这意味着所有这些技术将在我们难以理解的利率水平同时交汇，看起来会很疯狂。但如果你持有比特币，所有价格都会以那个速率下跌；如果你不持有，所有价值就得按那个速率被集中。

It's moving exponentially. And we didn't we didn't understand that financials. And that meant all of these technologies, they're gonna coincide at the same time as at least rates we can't even understand, and it's gonna seem crazy. But if you were in Bitcoin, then all prices are falling by that rate. If you're not in Bitcoin, all of that has to be consolidated at that rate.

那看起来就像强制与控制。大多数人正因为恐惧而向这套强制与控制系统输送更多能量——靠依附它、靠对它的恐惧。因为他们没有给比特币定价。

And and it would look like coercion and control. Most people are giving the system of coercion and control more energy Yeah. By leaning into it, by their fear in it. Mhmm. Because they're not pricing Bitcoin.

他们不用比特币消费。他们用的是比特币的衍生工具，还以为价格在涨。那个体系仍是通胀的，体系必须保持通胀。而这正与我说的一切相反。

They're not spending in Bitcoin. They're using a derivative instrument of Bitcoin thinking prices going up. That system is still inflationary. A system has to still be inflationary. And it's the opposite of what I'm saying.

自由市场的反面是价格下跌。意思是，我们从未真正生活在全球自由市场中。没人有基础去理解它，要搞清正在发生什么需要很长时间。与此同时，所有技术指数级前进，把我们旧模型搅得一片混沌。

The opposite of the free market prices go down. Meaning, we've never lived in a global free market. Nobody has a basis to understand that, and it takes lots of time to understand what's happening. At the same time, all of these technologies are moving exponentially, creating chaos in our brain from our previous models.

嗯。

Mhmm.

举些宗教式的例子：如果那个现实模型是对的——在我看来它确实对，因为它解释了一切，不是某一件事，是一切——那会是什么感觉？我们用些例子。

Religious use is some examples of if that model of the reality was correct. And in my mind, it certainly is because it's explaining everything. Not one thing, everything. What would it feel like? Let's use some examples.

再用些例子说明为什么它会在大多数人心里激起更大恐惧。先说简单的：我会失业，物价在涨，物价在涨。

And let's use some examples of why it would gain more fear in the minds of most of the population. Let's use some simple examples first. I'm going to lose my job. Prices are going up. Prices are going up.

我会被AR抢掉工作。我怎么办？我投靠政府。我花法币、存法币。政府会怎么做？

I'm gonna lose my job to AR. What do I do? I turn to the government. I'm spending in the fiat dollar and save. What does the government do?

我会救你，因为这样我能拉到选票。我怎么救你？我印更多钱，搞破坏，让你的处境更糟。这加速的速度与技术向相反方向发展的速度一样快。这就是它更快集中化的方式。

I'll save you because I'll get votes. How do I save you? I print more money, destroy, and make it worse for you. That accelerate accelerates at the same pace as technology is moving the other way. It's how it centralizes faster.

在那个体系里，法律长什么样？它们被改写，你所有的自由都因集中化而消失，因为他们必须这样做——你投票决定技术如何凌驾于你之上。它看起来像是一个由三四家甚至两家巨型AI垄断公司拥有的控制系统，你所有的信息都流经它们，而你还在喂养它，让它更强大，他们随时可以让你断线，不只是金钱，而是所有东西，或者更糟，因为你在那个体系里喂养它。你的思维被扭曲成那个系统希望你相信的样子。嗯。

What do laws look like for in that system? They get changed and all your freedoms go away from that centralization because they have to you're voting for what does technology look like over you. It looks like a control system owned by three or four or two giant monopolies of AI companies that all of your information is going through, and you're feeding it, making it stronger, where they could turn you off at any moment, not just money, but everything, or potentially worse because you're feeding it in that system. Your mind is being warped to what that system wants you to believe. Mhmm.

但你毫无察觉。因为你身处那个系统，出于恐惧，让它更强大——我该怎么生存？这就会发生。当它越来越糟时会发生什么？我先走恐惧路线，因为大多数人就活在那种恐惧里，却没意识到自己在恐惧中。

But you have no idea. Because you're inside that system through fear, making it stronger, which how do I survive. That would happen. What would happen as it got worse and worse and worse? And I'm I'm going down the fear track at first because that's majority of the population is living in that fear without realizing they're living in that fear.

他们说的是，那是别人，不是我。

What they are saying is it's someone else. It's not me.

嗯。

Mhmm.

对吧？别人要为我的幸福负责，于是他们困在恐惧里。但随着越来越多的胁迫与控制，当自由市场给我们工具去创造自己的AI、生物工程时，那些想把一切烧成灰的人会做什么？用同样能解放我们的技术，他们会用这些技术给世界制造巨大麻烦。

Right? Somebody else is responsible for my happiness, and then they're stuck in that fear. But as more and more coercion and control. And as the free market gives us tools to essentially create our own AIs, bioengineering, and what will people do that wanna burn it all down? With the same technology that could free all of us, they will use those technologies to create massive problems for the world.

对吧？因为他们被困住了。系统会怎么反应？试图阻止它。怎么阻止？

Right? Because they're so stuck. And what will the system do in reaction? Try to stop it. How will it stop it?

它会加大印钱、加大核心、加大控制。系统里的大多数人怎么做？是的，阻止他们。那些人又会怎么做？

It will drive more printing money, more cores, and more control. Will most people in the system do? Yes. Stop them. What will those people do?

因为他们被伤得太深，他们会想烧毁一切。社会会分裂，情况会越来越糟。我知道这是极悲观的视角，但我只想用这个例子说明：这些技术无论如何都会到来。

Because they're so hurt from that. They will wanna burn it all down. It'll divide society, and it'll get get worse and worse. And I know that's a really dystopian view, but I just wanna make sure why I use that as an example. Because these technologies are inevitable anyways.

它们无论如何都会来。嗯。当你想到机器人或机器狗，或者你害怕它们的样子，你看到的只是将要发生的极小一部分。会有纳米机器人，会有各种用途的机器人，不只是在我们生活里，而是专门制造的机器人，能完成所有这一切。

They're coming no matter what. Mhmm. When you think robot or robot dogs or your fear is what that will look like, you're seeing a tiny tiny fraction of what will happen. There's gonna be nanorobots. There'll be every robot of different uses, not just in our lights, but purpose built robots to be able to do all of this.

将会有成群的机器人。我们说今天的无人机里已经有它们了。它们会无处不在。而AI将是所有这些事物的驱动力。这一切无论如何都会到来。

There'll be swarms of robots. We say that they're already in drones today. It'll be everywhere. And AI will be driver of all those things. This is coming no matter what.

自由市场要求所有那些价格——全部的收益、由此带来的富足——都流向你。因为企业家若不能让你使用并受益于更多价值，他就无法创造更多价值。你是自由市场的一部分。在我描述的那个由比特币构成的世界里，没有理由与所有人争斗、分裂所有人，因为你的生活会越来越好、越来越好、越来越好，越来越好，越来越好，越来越好，越来越好。唯一的路径是，作为企业家，而不是像现在这样看起来像是两三年里就出现两三个食品垄断、药品垄断、机器人垄断、AI垄断，它们将合并，并与政府一起用你们的钱互动来控制你们。

The free market demands that all of that price all of the prices, the abundance from that, those that flows to you. Because an entrepreneur cannot create more value without you using more value and applying to you. You're a part of the free market. In the world I described from Bitcoin, there would be no reason to fight with everybody, to divide everybody because your life would be getting better and better and better and better and and better and better from all of the same thing. The only way as an entrepreneur, instead of it looking like three year there were two or three big food monopolies, drug monopolies, robot monopolies, AI monopolies that are gonna merge and all interact with the government with your money together to control you.

那笔钱已经被从你这里偷走了。在我描述的世界里，将会有成千上万个由个人组成的公司试图为你提供价值。嗯。而且不可能有任何垄断。嗯。

That money has been stolen from you. There will be thousands of companies by individuals trying to deliver value to you. Mhmm. And there can't be any monopoly in the world that I'm describing. Mhmm.

我觉得还有一点我也想确保被涵盖，就是开源技术这个概念，它与AI相关，与机器人相关，与所有这些不同的事物相关。因为如果像你说的，比特币在那里提供价值，并激励合作，而不是法币正在做的相反的事，那么对开源技术的激励将随时间而扩散。需要有人去报道它，需要有人谈论这些东西。

I think that's the thing also that I wanna make sure is covered is this idea of open source technology as it relates to AI, as it relates to robotics, as it relates to all of these different things. Because if the money like you're describing Bitcoin is there providing value and allowing cooper incentivizing cooperation as opposed to the opposite, which is what Fiat's doing. The, incentive for open source technologies is going to proliferate with time. And somebody needs to cover it. Somebody needs to be talking about some of this stuff.

而且我们已经看到了，就像上周你和我聊过一个通过浏览器实现的开源操作系统，诸如此类。我发现那些东西非常迷人，对世界来说也非常重要。我想我上周刚看到，一名员工拿走了xAI当前模型的全部权重，并把它带到了OpenAI。所以我认为，现有系统以及所有这些技术的构建方式，另一个方面是它们对保护非常脆弱。我认为随着时间推移，这些非常先进的模型将会被泄露，我认为你将看到一个从开源角度出发的运动，某种程度上不可阻挡，就像你刚刚描述的法币驱动的技术和中心化技术扩散那样。

And we're seeing it already, like we just you and I had a conversation last week about an OS that was open source that's through a web browser, things like that. I find that stuff so fascinating and so important for the world to see. I think I just saw last week, one employee took the entire weights of x AI's current model and took it to OpenAI. And so I think another part with this existing system and the way that all these technologies are being built is I think they're very precarious to protection. And I think that with time, the models, like some of these very advanced models are going to be leaked, and I think you're gonna have this movement from an open source standpoint that is somewhat unstoppable in the same direction direction that you just kinda described the proliferation of these fiat based tech and centralized technologies.

这就是经典场景，你知道，你在看电影，有反派，而某个积极的合作力量、实体、个人或别的什么，几乎必须能够站出来对抗它。我认为我们正在实时目睹这一切在世界、其形态、技术以及所有正在发生的事情中上演。而我想报道这一切，我想在那里报道这一切。但是

It's the classic, you know, you're watching a movie and there's the villain and, you know, some positive cooperative force entity individual or whatever almost has to be able to be stood up to counter it. And I think that we're seeing this literally play out in real time with the world and the way that it's shaped and the technology and all this stuff that's happening. And I guess I wanna cover all of it. I wanna be there covering all of it. But

你在那方面将极其重要，因为我现在看到的每一个报道者，他们在法币世界里都有偏见。嗯。这意味着，一切都会以更快的速度中心化。所以你就不断回到第一原理。嗯。

You're gonna be super important in that, like, important in that because every the one that I see covering that right now, everyone I see covering it right now, They have a bias within the fiat world. Mhmm. Meaning, it all gets centralized at a faster rate. Just and that's why you just keep on coming down to the first principle. Yeah.

自由市场的自然状态是通缩。价格会跌到生产的边际成本。在那个自然状态下，你预期会发生什么？你会预期，随着技术爆发，价格每年都会跌到生产的边际成本。

The natural state of the free market is deflation. Prices fall to the marginal cost of production. What would you expect to happen in that natural state of the world? You would expect as technology exploded. Prices default marginal cost of production every year.

嗯。世界上正在发生什么？不是那样。除非你押注比特币。嗯。

Mhmm. What's happening in the world? Not that. Unless you're bidding a bill unless you're betting in Bitcoin. Yeah.

除非你身在比特币里。所以即使你说开源，开源是极好的，我也是它的坚定支持者。但它不需要是开源的，因为它们会到处都是，因为企业家会——嗯。而且如果他们所给你的东西在一段时间内提供了价值，那么由于他们赚取的利润，别人就会来竞争。

Unless you're in Bitcoin. And so even when you say open source, open source is fantastic, and I'm a huge proponent. But it won't need to be open source because they're everywhere because entrepreneurs are gonna. Mhmm. And if what and if what they're giving you does if it provides value for a while, then somebody else, because of the margin they're making, will compete with them.

没错。

That's right.

价格会下跌。那么今天，开源的钱从哪里来？开源的钱来自有人想捐出他们在另一个体系里赚到的钱。所以这是给开源的钱。并不是说这好还是坏，或者其他什么。

And prices will fall. And so today, where does the money for open source come from? Money from open source comes from somebody wanting to donate that they're making this money over here to this other system. So it's money for open source. Not that that's bad or good or anything else.

我喜欢这一点。

I love that.

钱仍然来自某个从破碎体系中赚到钱的人。嗯。是他们在捐款。如果钱枯竭了，那就没有开源了。自由市场必须赢。

The money is still coming from somebody who has made the money from a broken system. Mhmm. It is that is donating. And if money dries up, then there is no open source. The free market has to win.

我们是自由市场的一部分。你在自由市场里做得越多，你在比特币里做得越多，它赢得就越快。我们每个人，地球上每一个人，在这场对话中都有能动性。嗯。如果你不在这场对话里——那么现在你就把你对比特币的了解，对你自己在一个需要保持去中心化与安全、以便全球繁荣能流向我们所有人的体系中行动的了解，结合起来。

We are a part of the free market. The more you do in the free market, more you do in Bitcoin, the faster it wins. Every one of us, every single person on the planet has agency in that discussion. Mhmm. If you're not in that discussion so now you take what you know about Bitcoin, what you know about your own agency operating in a system that needs to remain decentralized and secure for this global abundance to flow to all of us.

然后你把这一切与所有技术结合，你就能编织出一场别人无法复制的节目，因为所有其他节目都是通过法币视角来看的。

And you marry that with all of these technologies, and you will stitch together a show like no one else's show because all of those other shows are through a fiat lens.

让我们稍作休息，听听今天赞助商的消息。

Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors.

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作为小企业主，你没有提前下班的奢侈。你的生意 24 小时都在你脑子里。所以招人时，你需要一个和你一样拼命的伙伴。这个招聘伙伴就是 LinkedIn Jobs。你下班，它上班。

As a small business owner, you do not have the luxury of clocking out early. Your business is on your mind twenty four seven. So when you're hiring, you need a partner that works just as hard as you do. That hiring partner is LinkedIn jobs. When you clock out, LinkedIn clocks in.

LinkedIn 让你免费发布职位，一键分享到你的人脉，并在一个地方管理所有优质候选人。它还能帮你写职位描述，并通过深度候选人洞察把你的职位精准推给合适的人。你可以免费发布，也可以付费推广，获得 3 倍优质申请者。72% 使用 LinkedIn 的中小企业表示它能帮他们找到高质量候选人，放心招人。看看为什么我们和超过 250 万家小企业都在用 LinkedIn 招聘。

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Post your job for free at linkedin.com/studybill. That's linkedin.com/studybill to post your job for free. Terms and conditions apply.

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you'll get

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The decade long rush has begun. And the question is, are you positioned for what's coming? Claim your bundle now at unchained.com/freedom. That's unchained.com/freedom. Alright.

节目继续。

Back to the show.

我想具体聊聊昨天刚出的消息。Elon Musk 回复了整份“火星目录”，他们问关于扩张、成为多行星物种的问题。Elon 的回答简直炸裂，Jeff，你看看。

I wanna get a little specific on something that literally this came out yesterday. Elon Musk replies to this whole Mars catalog. They were asking a question about, you know, scaling and becoming multiplanetary and all this. And this was Elon's response, which I think is just mind blowing. Check this out, Jeff.

这是那个问题。他的回应里写着，特斯拉80%的价值将是乐观主义。这太疯狂了，他竟然基于我们今天对特斯拉的了解、它的汽车以及所有现状就敢这么说，你就能看出他认为这一切会发展得多快。对一个还没上市的产品来说，他……我知道埃隆有时候非常……他可能会

There's their question. And his response in down in here says, 80% of Tesla's value will be optimists. Like, that is totally nuts for him to come out and say that based on what we know about Tesla today and the cars and, like, where all of that's at and just you can just see where he thinks all of this is going, like, very quickly. For a product that hasn't even launched yet. He's and I know Elon can be very He can

他会提前很久说出那些话，说那就是他们现在的价值。他没说的是，那种价值是因为你甚至在推特上描述的东西，他在那页里描述的是：我要成为世界上最大的公司，而且它将是一个巨大的垄断，因为它是假的。那是他在描述的，或者人们读到的。他没说的是，他正被比特币重新定价。

he can say things way ahead of time that that that's their their value. Now what he's not saying is is that value because what you're describing even in that Twitter, he's describing in that page. He's describing, I'm gonna have the largest company in the world, and it's gonna be a giant monopoly because it's fake one. That's what he was describing or what people are reading. What he's not describing is he's being re priced by Bitcoin right now.

他的公司正被比特币重新定价。在比特币的周期里，那80%可能是一家非常小的公司，有成千上万个竞争对手，那句话仍然可能是真的。

His company is being regraced by Bitcoin right now. And over Bitcoin's term, that 80% could be a really small company with thousands of competitors, and it still might be true.

哦，对。我明白你的意思了，我……

Oh, yeah. I see what you're I

你明白我在说什么了吗？我知道，因为我跟机器人领域非常近，非常密切。AI，他……这就是很多额外的原因。这就是我买推特的原因。

see what you're See what I've see what I'm saying? And I know because I'm pretty close to the robotics sector in one very closely. AI he is that's why a lot of extra. That's why I bought Twitter.

嗯，嗯。

Yeah. Yeah.

为了消化信息，你的信息，用来训练模型，把这些模型加到视觉测试里，所有视觉模型，好让这一切动起来。他有一支非常棒的工程团队，他是领导者之一。嗯。但这些领导者也来自中国。嗯。

To digest the information, your information, to be able to train models, add those models to the test to the vision test as in all of the vision models to be able to move this. He's got a fantastic engineering team, and he is one of the leaders. Mhmm. But but those leaders are coming out of China as well. Yeah.

领导者以疯狂的速度涌现。看看BYD，看看中国出来的车跟特斯拉出来的车比一比，你会感叹，哇，这竞争是真的。嗯。

Leaders are at a crazy rate. Look at there's a BY BYD. Look at the cars coming out of China in comparison to the cars coming out of Tesla still, and you'll see, wow. That competition is real. Yeah.

这竞争不是只有他在做，他也不是处处都赢。他只在有监管壁垒的地方赢。

That competition is not the only one doing this, and he's not winning everywhere. He's winning where he has a regulatory vault.

你知道关于车的事有什么有趣吗？我们在迪拜的时候，跟一些优步司机聊天，他们载我们到处跑。有些车我从来没在路上见过。我跟一个司机聊起来，他说，哦，对，很多是中国汽车制造商。

You know what's interesting about the car thing? So we were over in Dubai, and we were talking to some of the people that the the Uber drivers that were driving us around. And some of the cars, I'd never seen some of these cars before that were on the road. And I started talking to one guy about it, and he said, oh, yeah. A lot of these are Chinese car manufacturers.

奇怪的是，有些车看起来像是路虎，有些看起来几乎和美国的一些品牌一模一样。但当你坐进去，里面的各种高科技配置和汽车的智能程度简直爆表。我当时的想法是，另一个重点是价格，比这些西方汽车品牌便宜太多了。然后我恍然大悟，他们其实是在用这些车“吃掉”数据——车开到哪里、车里的人在说什么，所有这些信息都以折扣价甚至成本价被收集。所以正如你所说，我觉得这一点非常中肯，竞争并不仅仅发生在我们在美国看到的层面，也不仅仅是我们社交媒体推送的内容。

And what was weird was some of them looked like a Range Rover, or some of them looked like brands that in The US, like almost identical. But then you get inside and the bells and whistles that they have inside and the intelligence in the car was off the charts. And I'm there thinking to myself, well, was the other point was the price was so much cheaper than what you would pay for one of these Western car brands. And then it dawned on me, it's like they are eating the data out of these cars, where they're driving, what they're saying inside, all of it at a discount or maybe even cost so that they can collect all that information. And so to your point, which I think is very salient is the competition isn't just like what we're seeing here in The US or what we're being fed through our social media feed.

这种通缩、技术通缩的现象，正在国际范围内大规模发生，而且我认为其深远程度和竞争激烈程度远超我们大多数人的认知。

So much of this brace of deflation, technological deflation is happening on an international scale, and I think, like, way more profound and way more competitive than many of us realize.

远不止如此。那些车的价格只有三分之一。

So Way more. And so those cars are a third of the price.

哇。所以他们是在亏本卖车，为了AI？

Wow. And so they're in mark that they're just losing money on for the for the AI.

他们可能并没有亏本。他们的劳动力更便宜。那些是“黑灯工厂”，由AI建造，连灯都不开，没有人。

They might not be losing money. Their labor is cheaper. These are dark robotics factories that are AI being becoming AI built. They don't have any lights up. They don't have any humans.

首先，人力成本便宜。之所以便宜，是因为中国利用货币优势压低出口价格，从而让人力成本更低，对吧？所以劳动力便宜。那自由市场做了什么？

So first, the human labor was a lot cheaper. The human labor was cheaper because China was using their currency as an advantage to keep their exports up to have the human labor cheaper. Right? So their labor was cheaper. What did the pre market do?

所有想争夺你钱包的美国公司，为了竞争，把生产全部转移到中国，因为美国“愚蠢”的劳动力更贵。结果呢？中国为了不断压低价格，必须越来越有竞争力，于是他们不断自动化、自动化、再自动化，率先建起了没有工人的“黑灯工厂”，只为达到目标价格。

All of The US companies that were trying to compete for your dollars funneled all their production to China because The US stupid labor was cheaper. What did that do? China needed to be competitive at a price that was lower and lower and lower. So they automated, automated, automated. They created some of these first dark factories that didn't have humans in them so that they could reach price point.

美国通过汽车监管保护了特斯拉、通用等品牌，中国市场怎么做？他们把那些车卖给任何愿意买的人，所以成本更低，并不是在免费送。

Is The US regulatory mode on their cars protected Tesla and GM and other cars? What did China market do? They sold those cars to anyone else who wanted to buy And that's why they're lower cost, not because they're giving them away.

杰夫，你觉得这还有多久？我给观众看一下，我这边打开了Optimus机器人的页面，展示它正在接受的各种训练任务，以及未来可能带来的影响。看到这些东西，我记得你五六年前写书时就提出过这个论点。这会是一个怎样的世界？我读到的是，大概三年后，普通家庭就能在家里拥有这样的机器人，也许四年。然后大规模普及，可能还要七八年，它们会无处不在。

How far out do you and I have for people that are looking at the video, I have the optimist robot pulled up here and just showing, like, all the different tasks that it's being trained on and, like, what this impact might be kind of moving forward. When you look at stuff like this, Jeff, I mean, this is your thesis from five, six years ago when you wrote the book. What kind of world is this gonna be? And from what I read, this is gonna households, call it three years from now, you're gonna be able to have something like this in your house, maybe four. And then at scale, you're probably seven, eight years out where these things are everywhere.

而且不仅仅是这种机器人，就像你说的，还会有更多专门用于工厂的型号。我认为人形机器人会进入家庭。但一想到这些设备将吞噬多少劳动力，我简直无法想象。

And it's not just, like you said, just not just this robot. It's gonna be all sorts that are maybe more specialized for the factory. I think the humanoid ones are gonna be the ones that go into the homes. But when you think about how much labor is going to be eaten away at with things like this, I can't even wrap my head around it.

是的。所以当你展示这个时，幕后发生了一些事情来完成那个视频，你看到了一大堆人类。

Yeah. So when you're showing this, what now some of the stuff that's happening behind the scenes to do that first in that video, you saw a whole bunch of humans.

嗯。

Mhmm.

五年后，它就不会是那个样子了。

Five years, it won't look like that.

对。

Yeah.

但要完成手部关节动作，要弄清楚我该用多大的力去抓这个东西才能把它拿起来、切割、清扫，做你说的所有这些动作，还要把它整合到行走等其他任务中。这些都是复杂的任务，它们正以难以理解的速率被攻克。我看到一个机器人皮肤的投资，但我其实没投。不过目前大部分工作都是靠摄像头完成的。

But to do the hand articulation, to figure how much pressure do I put on this object to be able to pick this up to cuts, to sweep, to do all of these things that you're talking about, tie it into, put everything else to walk to. These are complex tasks. They're being tackled at a rate it's hard to comprehend. I saw a robot skin investment, but I didn't actually make. But it was most of this is done by cameras today.

需要大量摄像头维度和其他数据来训练。传感器扫描拥有和我们一样的触觉。所有这些数据都被收集到模型里，因为它有所有这些传感器。想想在游戏里会是什么样子，对吧？

Takes tons of camera dimensions and everything else, tons of data to be able to train that. Censored scanning has the same feel touch as we do. And then all of that data is collected into the models because it has all of these sensors. And think about what it would look like in gaming. Right?

如果你全身都布满触觉传感器，游戏会是什么样子，现在把同样的触觉传感器覆盖在机器人全身。这样它就能以更快的速度为AI收集更多信息，从而完成所有这些任务。所以所有这些因素的融合正以惊人的速度发生，如果你置身事外，那将非常有趣。我也很关注你的旅程和你的新节目。因为你能把这些这些这些这些全部串联起来，再加上比特币上发生的一切，让人惊叹。

If you had haptic sensors everywhere and what that gaming would look like, now cover a robot in the same haptic sensors everywhere. And now it picks up more information for the AI to learn at a greater pace and can do all these things. So this confluence of all of these things is happening at a rate that if you're outside of it, and it's gonna be interesting. I'm interest all your journey and your new show too. Because you're gonna be able to weave together this plus this plus this plus this and all what's happening on Bitcoin to show, wow.

这种速度意味着什么，很多人只待在某个孤立的领域里，不理解更大的图景是如何一起展开的。

What the rate of that's what this means, where so many people are in a silo, one of these silos, and not understanding how the greater picture all unfolds together.

说到这个，我想聊聊AI总体上如何增强人形机器人的学习，或者说有潜力增强。Jeff，看这个。这是一段看起来像实拍视频的画面，对吧？你现在看到的是第一人称视角，一个人在博物馆里走。

So on that topic, I wanna I wanna talk about how AI, just in general is augmenting the learning of some of these humanoid or has the potential to augment the learning. So check this out, Jeff. So here is a what appears to be like a video footage. Right? Where you're looking at a person walking through a museum right now, first person view.

他们在看一些石头，或者看那边的恐龙，四处走动。现在他们在市场里走，街上有花。而所有这些都是AI实时生成的。

They're looking at just some rocks or looking at the dinosaur there. They're kinda moving around. Here they are on a market walking. There's flowers on the street. And all of this is being generated real time with AI.

这是 Genie 三代，它显然是临时拼凑，一边跑一边生成，而且显然吞了大量 YouTube 视频素材。我觉得这是 Google 的模型。于是你看着它，心里嘀咕：这玩意儿到底能干嘛？你刚还在说机器人那边得靠海量数据训练，对吧？

This is Genie three, which is just ad hoc making things up as it goes through and ingest ed a bunch of video footage from YouTube evidently is how this was generated. I believe this is a Google model. And so you're looking at it and you're saying, well, how in the world would this ever be used? And you just got done talking about how on the robotic side, how it has to be trained on, like, all of this information. Right?

它得在真实环境里练。可我们发现机器人训练最快的一条路是仿真训练。你把机器人放进合成环境，让它学跳舞、捡球之类的，反复练。要是能一口气跑一百万次迭代，你睡一觉回来，它就已经完美捡球；而以前放在真实环境里，可能得耗五天。

It has to be in this real environment. But one of the fastest things that that we're finding on the robotic side for training purposes is simulated training. So you put the robot in this synthetic environment, you tell it to learn how to dance, or you learn how to pick up this ball or whatever it is, and they go over and over again. But if you have this simulated environment where they can run a million iterations of it, they can learn you went away, you went back to bed and you slept for the night, you come back in the morning and now the robot's perfect at picking up the ball as opposed before where it had to do it in the real environment. It might have taken five days.

所以我看着这个临时搭建的合成环境，听说它最多能记住九十秒之前出现过的东西，一边现场秒生成。这简直像在给机器人造梦，让它们在里面学习。我看得头皮发麻：这啥情况？

So I'm looking at this synthetic environment that's being ad hoc built on the fly. My understanding is that it can remember up to, like, ninety seconds of what it showed before in the environment, like, as it's just spontaneously generating all of this on the fly. And it's almost like we're building a dream environment for robots to learn. And I'm I'm just looking at this stuff and it's blowing my mind. Like, what in the world?

关键是速度。这一切发生的速度已经没法用语言形容，根本超乎想象。

Like, the speed. I think that's the thing, is the speed at which this is all taking place is beyond words. It's beyond comprehension.

是啊。面对这局面只有两条路：要么兴奋加入，要么恐惧退缩。它此刻就在影响我们每一个人。

Yeah. And that can do one of two things. You could get excited about that, be part of it, or you can get fearful of it. And how does this impact me right now? And these technologies are impacting all of us.

我们看到这些，就喊：这些公司凭什么抢我们饭碗？可我们能做什么？我们活在法币体系里，只能眼睁睁看着它们抢走工作，而物价还在一路涨。

We see these things. We say, well, how dare those companies take our jobs? Well, what are we gonna do about it? Well, we live in a fiat system making sure those companies take our jobs. And prices rise that whole time.

接着它们拿走你的合成数据，一路走到极端，或者我们活在那个中心化、非真正比特币的世界里。那时系统里的信息越来越多是别人喂给我们的，我们分辨不出真假，只能困在里面。

Now they take your synthetic data and take it into its natural conclusion or let's live in that centralized world, not true Bitcoin. Then all of the information inside the system, more and more of it would be some. It would be what we were told. We wouldn't know the difference. We would be stuck we'd be stuck in that world.

对，对，就是那样。我觉得它永远不会直线发展。

Yeah. Right. Right. That's what it would look like. I don't think it ever goes like this.

顺便说，这也是世界正在发生的碰撞：你感受到的现实，与你能在其中采取的行动。你可以问：我的行为到底在强化哪种未来？是让我更深陷被控制的虚拟世界，还是让自由市场更强大？

And by the way, this is also the same collision between what's happening in the world, what you can feel what's happening in the world. And then you can take your own actions within that collision, and you could say, what world what future am I making stronger with my actions? Am I making the one where I live in this emphasized world stronger where somebody's controlling me in everything I do? Or can I make the free market stronger with my actions? Right?

每个人都会参与这场选择。我们本身就是超级计算机。新信息源自我们的大脑，而非系统已有数据；是我们突然说：等等，那要是这样呢？

And every single person that is going to play that in these. We are the supercomputer. In my mind, right, the new information, what was there before, not that it can't come from the computer, but the new information or there is always from our mind outside of the information the system holds. And we are the thing that says, wait. What about this?

那这个呢？那这个呢？所以我们把新信息带进一个系统，它的输出就是价格，你知道，它们输出的就是价格下跌。就像如果你喂进去的是垃圾，出来的也是垃圾。对吧？

What about this? What about this? And so we're bringing that new information to a system that the output is the prices that, you know, they they output is the prices fall. And that like, if you trained garbage in, you'd get garbage out. Right?

如果全是合成信息。看看一些算法干了什么，拿谷歌举例，现在我们摧毁了一堆“觉醒”的东西。但看看那些算法做了什么，结果是什么样子。是啊。对吧？

If you it was all synthetic information. Look at what some of the algorithms did if you use Google as an example when now we've destroyed a whole bunch of the woke. But look at what the algorithms did and what that looked like. Yeah. Right?

当你问它一个问题。你觉得它特别离谱，是因为你的大脑在说“这不对”。对。对吧。所以你可以想象一下，如果你根本不知道说“这不对”。

When you asked it a question. And the reason it looked so egregious to you is because your brain said that's not right. Yeah. Right. And so you can just now imagine if you didn't know to say that that's not right.

对吧？你的大脑说，哦，行吧。可以。可以。行。

Right? That your brain said, oh, yeah. That's okay. That's okay. Okay.

那就是另一个系统的样子。嗯。

That's what that other system looks like. Mhmm.

如果我要反驳说，这一切发展下去，AI 能否开始生成自己独有的、有用的数据，更重要的是，从机器人的视角提出推动事物前进的创新思路，我想这个领域的顶尖专家会争辩说：这就是为什么我们需要人形机器人。我们需要 AI 能嵌入到一个载体里，让它能走进真实环境，拥有自己独特的体验。当它走出去并保留这些独特体验时，它就会获得更分化的经验，而不是——在训练 AI 时，如果你用海量数据集训练，它很难在某一具体领域成为专家。但如果它走出去，在特定领域学习，比如说它想当医生。对吧？

If I was gonna push back on whether, you know, where this is all going could start generating its own unique, useful data, and more importantly, creative thoughts on how to advance things forward from a robot's perspective, I think that leading experts in the space would make the argument that this is why we need humanoid robots. We need the AI to be able to nest itself into a vehicle that allows it to go out into the environment and have its own unique experiences. And when it can go out in there and do that and retain its own unique experiences, then it's going to have a more compartmentalized experience that isn't you know, in training in AI, if you train it on a massive dataset, it's hard for it to be an expert in one specific thing. But if it goes out and it learns in that specific domain, let's say that it's trying to be a doctor. Right?

它跟着医生实习，多年里被喂大量该领域的真实信息，而不会被其他信息压缩干扰判断。对吧？这样你可能开始得到非常独到的见解，可能开始从那个分化、走出去过独特生活的人形机器人那里取得进步。杰夫，你同意这种说法，还是有什么不同意？

And it's shadowing a doctor and it's being fed with tons of real information for years in that specific domain and it's not compressing other information that would cloud its judgment. Right? That you might start getting very unique insights and you might start getting advancements from that compartmentalized robot or humanoid robot that's going out there and living a unique life. Would you agree with that, Jeff, or would you disagree with something like that?

嗯。所以我不这么认为——我会很有兴趣看看你的节目和那种观点。我持开放态度。但如果你问我相信什么？我完全不认同。

Yeah. So I don't see and I'm gonna be interested to watch some of your shows and that point of view. So my mind is open. But if you said, what do I believe? I don't believe it at all.

我认为你听到的是那些中心化 AI 公司想让你听到的，为了推动中心化结构。他们并非故意这么做，他们是为了在自由市场里竞争，公司越做越大，把大部分收益集中到三四家公司及其员工手里。所以他们只是想竞争，提供——我要赢这场“乡村竞赛”。但所有这些模型，或者说大多数人用的模型，都是这些中心化的。

I believe what you're hearing is through centralized AI companies telling you what they want you to hear to be able to drive centralized structure. And then they're not doing it on purpose. They're doing it to try to get in the free market, and they're getting bigger and bigger to extract most of the canes from that in three or four companies and all their employees in that. So they're just trying to compete, provide I'm gonna win the rural race. But all these models or all the models that most people are using are these centralized models.

对吧？那什么能改变？现在你也看到，我和你也看到正在改变的东西——人们去看这一切，或者说我能看这一切展开，是基于比特币，基于 Doster 等等。你说人们把这些模型拿过来压缩，让一个代理挂在一个公钥上，分工极窄，这个代理不会被其他中心化模型胁迫。它做不到。

Right? So what would change that? Now you and I have also seen what's changing that to where people to watch all of this or I'm able to watch or able to watch all of this unfold is based on Bitcoin and based on Doster and other things. You're saying people take these models, compress them, have an agent that's on a pubkey that is the division of labor narrowly defined that the agent doesn't have to be coerced by other centralized models. It can't be.

这是一个非常非常狭隘的智能体。现在你把一大堆这样的智能体串在一起，它们构成了机器人的大脑，那看起来会完全不同，因为它无法被控制。无法被这个控制。它会变得越来越强。就像我们俩，就像你和我，是两个不同的、创造价值的分形人，有着截然不同的优缺点，我们连同其他八十亿人一起，把自己的优缺点加诸于世界，尽管这是个地狱般的世界。

It's an agent that's very, very narrow. Now you string together a whole bunch of these agents, and they build up your brain of a robot, that would look very different because it couldn't be controlled. Couldn't be controlled by this. It would get better and better and better. And just like we, just like you and I are two different fractals of value creating people that have very different strengths and weaknesses that we add to the world with all eight other billion people adding their strength and weaknesses to the world as hell.

如果这些看起来像这样，各自拥有独立优势并汇聚在一起，却又无法被控制，那么我就看到了一条截然不同的路径。我认为那条路会发生。我们还处在那条路的极早期，而那条路并不确定，因为中心化的人工智能有太多控制。中心化人工智能背后更大的博弈也是政府的博弈。嗯。

If you have these looking like this and these individual strengths and they're coalescing that couldn't be controlled, then I see a very different path. That's the path I think it's going to happen. We're very early on that path, and that path isn't guaranteed because there's so much control from the centralized AI. And that bigger game in the centralized AI is a government game too. Mhmm.

因为你在美俄中之间有一场地缘政治博弈

Because you have a geopolitical game between US, Russia, China

哦，对。

Oh, yeah.

印度也想控制人工智能。嗯。当人工智能几乎不可能被控制时，在那个世界里，就会有几家公司分别控制各自一方的人工智能，而所有在其之下的战争博弈，你对那个控制空间的想象会非常混乱。

India wanting to control AI. Mhmm. When it's virtually going to be impossible to control AI, there's gonna be like in that world, you would have a couple companies controlling AI on each side and all the war games underneath it, what you're thinking in that space for control would be really confusing.

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Preston，我觉得这种分化已经在显现：中国是集中式政府主导的人工智能。我愿意相信美国是开放的，政府不会像中国那样深度介入，但其实政府还是有参与的。

Preston I think you're already seeing somewhat of that bifurcation playing out where China is the centralized government AI. I would like to think that in The US, it's open and that the government's not nearly as involved as China, but I think the government is involved.

并不是。对，你天然就相信：中国亏本卖车，因为他们是“坏人”，对吧？

It's not. Yeah. It's just like you believe. The natural belief you have is China is selling those cars at the lost because those people are bad. Right?

这只是你对自己控制体系的信念罢了。别忘了，DeepSeek 出自中国，嗯，却是开源的。开源。

It's just a belief that you have in your own system of control. And so remember, DeepSeek came out of China. Mhmm. And it was open source. Open source.

把开源炸了个洞。所以中国冒出大量开源模型，为什么？因为他们能下载同样的东西，还能逆向工程这些模型。对。

Blew the open source. And so there's tons of these models coming of China. Why? Because they can download the same and they can reverse engineer these models. Yeah.

压缩它们，以开源形式发布，给采用不同控制结构的体系带来冲击波。那么，这些模型最前端的部分长什么样？那些我们还看不到的东西。

Compress them. Put them out as open source and send a shock wave through a rest of a control structure that is doing something different. Now what about the very front edge for these models? What does that look like? The stuff that we can't see yet.

嗯。

Mhmm.

是啊，简直超乎想象，我完全猜不到它会走向哪里。咱们快速聊聊人口结构。你看到这些发达国家人口都在下降。

Yeah. Mind blowing stuff. I just can't even imagine where this is going. Let's talk about demographics really fast. So you see all of these declining populations in developed nations.

这只会给我们讨论的所有话题再添一把火。先帮大家理解为什么；然后说说你对这一趋势的看法，它会不会改变，以及你对人口问题的总体观点。

And it only adds more fuel to the fire of everything we're talking about. And help people understand why, first of all. And then, well, I guess some of your thoughts on that trend and I guess why you see that being important, whether you see that trend changing, and just your overall thoughts in general on demographics.

我觉得主要是人口结构——我根本不是人口学专家。但假设你看到全球普遍的趋势：当生活水平提高，人们生的孩子变少。这意味着什么？我们希望自己的基因存活并繁荣。当婴儿死亡率高时，我们就会多生孩子。

I think primarily demographics is I'm not a demographics expert at all. But let's say you see a general move all over the world is when standard of living rises, people have less children. And what would that mean? We want our genes to survive and thrive. And when there's infant mortality, we have more children.

确保这一点发生，这大概是生物层面的原因。而当生活水平上升，我们生的孩子减少。再加上，大多数人推迟要孩子，因为他们负担不起，或者觉得自己负担不起。

Make sure that that happens. That's probably the biological reason. And then in standard delivering risers, we have less children. Now you add to that. Most people are delaying having children because they can't afford they don't think they can afford children.

于是出现断崖式下降，因为人们等啊等，或者干脆说“我不必生”。他们困在对未来世界的恐惧里，担心孩子将面对怎样的世界，于是害怕生育。所以，这一切只是又一个巨型因素，让人们困在自己的泡泡里，为泡泡里的恐惧添砖加瓦。就像，随便说一个你关心的全球问题——我不是对你的听众说，普雷斯顿，是说你——哪个问题不能靠货币贬值来解决？

And you get a massive decline because people are waiting and waiting and waiting or saying, I don't need to have this. We're so stuck in their fear of what their kids are gonna grow up in in the future world and they're scared to have children. And so what are all these it's just one more kind of giant thing that people are in their bubble and worried about from their bubble or in the fear world that is contributing to the fear. Like, name one problem, any global problem that you care about. I'm not talking to your audience, not you, Preston, that you care about that could be solved by just that dip by debasing money.

你担心的那个问题，或者你在辩论里提到的货币贬值、货币控制的问题——每一个问题，是的。但相反的系统会带来相反的结果。那意味着什么？

The problem that you're worried about is or from the debate spent on money, from the control money. Every single problem. Yeah. But where the opposite system would provide opposite results. So what does that mean?

嗯，我甚至会说，在比特币里，当我说90%的比特币以法币计价被囤着，那是什么意思？他们在给一个迅速中心化的世界增加力量。对。所以我预计这些人会把比特币卖回法币纸钞，然后法币纸钞会一再贬值。

Well, I would say and even in Bitcoin, when I say 90% of Bitcoin are reserved measuring it from a fiat instrument, what does that mean? They're giving more strength to a world that's centralizing fast. Yeah. Right. And so what I expect those people to do, sell their Bitcoin back to the fiat paper, and then the fiat papers be devalued again and again and again.

所以他们在那过程里可能看起来“纸面富裕”，但那又怎样？当我说这些，意思是我们还处在这个转换的极早期。这意味着什么？这个转换将是混乱的。

So they might look pure rich for a while in that. But what does that mean? Like, when I say that, means we are so early in this transition. What does that mean? This transition is going to be chaotic.

嗯。它将是——而你在转换中把精力投在哪里，你的混乱就会少些，对吧？但这些事是连着的，因为人口结构就跟它绑在一起。劳动力的顶端会流向资本和劳动力被公平对待的地方。

Mhmm. It is going to be and where you're putting your energy in the transition, it will be less chaotic for you. Right? But these things are tied because they're all the demographics is tied to it. The top and labor searches for where capital and labor is treated fairly.

嗯。于是你看到世界各国，比特币里也在发生。对吧？你有这个基础层，只要它保持去中心化、安全——而你在确保这一点。如果你跑节点，你就把时间投入一个为你服务的系统。

Mhmm. So what you have is nations around the world, and this is happening in Bitcoin too. Right? And you have this base layer that if it stays decentralized and secure, which you are a part of making sure. If you run a node, you contribute your time to a system that is for you.

对吧？如果你用这种货币消费，你就在为一个为你服务的全球自由市场做贡献。我可以说同样的话：如果你不这么做，你就在为一个以某种速率榨取你的世界做贡献。我不评判任何人该做不该做，但他们可以问自己：在我创造的世界里，我有主动权吗？还是没有？

Right? If you're spending in that currency, you're contributing to a global free market that is for you. And I could say the same things that pops. If you're not, you're contributing to a world that's extracting from you at a rate. And I'm not making any judgment what people should do or shouldn't do, but they can ask themselves, do I have agency in the world that I'm creating, or do I not?

你会看到——我们在比特币里已经看到，因为我们走得很远，我们看到这些东西浮现。当人们把更多时间转向比特币，他们的生活变得更好，他们就想生孩子。那不过是他们信念的映射被回放，这在自由市场的自然状态下是真的，一切都会——嗯，就这样展开。

What you'll see and we see this in Bitcoin because we're so far into it, and we're seeing all of these things emerge. But when people move more of their time to Bitcoin, their lives get better. They see that they wanna have children. It would be just a mere reflection of their beliefs by playing back, which would be true in the natural state of the free market, and everything would be just Yeah. Playing out.

人越多，但真正理解我们现在在说什么的人却很少，他们仍困在另一个体系里，于是混乱就变得有趣。

And the more people there but very few people understand what we're talking about right now, they're still stuck in this other system, then it's fun to be chaotic.

是啊。如果可以的话，回顾你的书《明天的代价》，杰夫，你是在2019年写的，还是2019年出版的？

Yeah. If you could so looking back at your book, The Price of Tomorrow, did you write it in 2019, Jeff, or did it get released in 2019?

2019年提前发布。2020年1月，我，它在亚马逊上架。

It pre released in 2019. January 2020, I, it was on Amazon.

哇。好。所以这本书已经出版五年半了。如果要重写或增加章节，你会怎么看当时的内容与现在想补充或本该写进去的部分？

Yeah. Wow. Okay. So we're already a half a decade in on the book. If you had to rewrite or add chapters, what would you looking at the assessment of what was in it versus what you wish maybe could be added or should have also been in

我会更深入地写能源。我会更深入地写核能。那时我可能对这项技术有偏见，因为它被我故意排除在数据集之外。嗯。

it, what would you put? I would have gone deeper on energy. I would have gone deeper on nuclear. And I think in that time, I probably had a bias too on that specific technology because it was one of those ones that was excluded from my dataset intentionally. Mhmm.

我觉得在那过程中，你开始更清楚自己当初怎么想，当你观察不同变化时。这肯定是我会深入写的一点。然后我当时不会多写比特币，因为现在我对它的理解深得多。那时我在很多播客里说过，我心里给比特币设了5%的失败概率。嗯。随着时间推移。

I think potentially in that, you start to learn more of how you thought, how when you look and what different changes. That would be one I would for sure go deeper on. And then I don't think I would have written any more on Bitcoin at the time because I would now because I'm so much deeper on what that looks like. At that time at that time, I when I said this on many podcasts, I had a 5% probability in my mind that the coin would fail Mhmm. In time.

我设那5%的概率，是因为我们从未生活在全球自由市场里。嗯。这意味着我们一定是问题的一部分，因为我们每天都在用给我们带来更多价值的东西。但我们生活在另一个不断榨取价值的体系里，这意味着四五千年来我们处于零和博弈，我们必定参与了这场零和博弈。嗯。

And came with that five percent probability because understanding that we've never lived in a global free market. Mhmm. That meant we had to be part of the problem because we use things that provide us more value each day. But we lived in this other system that was extracting that value that that meant for four or five thousand years, we were in a zero sum game that we must have been part of the zero sum game. Mhmm.

我当时觉得比特币不可能解决这个悖论，因为问题在我们。不是别人。不是——是我们不让它发生。所以如果你认为是“我们”，而历史又显示你逃不出这个陷阱——是啊——那你就得对保持去中心化和安全设定极高的门槛。

And I figured there's no way Bitcoin could resolve that paradox because it's us. Not somebody else. It's not it's us that won't let that. And so if you figure it's us, and there's all of this history that shows that you're not going to get out of this trap Yeah. Then you have to have a really high bar on remaining decentralized and secure.

正是通过那道高门槛去“攻破”比特币，我的行为变了。我投入了更多时间。我开始运行节点等等。我们于是创办了风投公司，一起投资那些在此基础上建设的团队。是我明白了我对自己想成功的世界有能动性，没人能夺走我的能动性。

And it was through that high bar trying to break Bitcoin, my actions changed. I contributed more of my time. I started running and all of that. I started spending, you know, that we started the venture capital company together to invest in others that we're building onto it together. It was that I understood I had agency in the world I wanted to succeed, and nobody could take my agency.

嗯。因为这种能动性与成千上万个也有能动性的节点同在，它们在保护我们。无论这个体系或其他什么怎么做，我都有能动性。这改变了我，因为我意识到通过这样做我拥有了能动性。现在我想去保护它。

Mhmm. Because that agency was with tens of thousands of other nodes that also had agency that were protecting us. And no matter what this system did or anything else, I had agency. And that changed because I realized by doing that I had agency. Now I wanted to protect that.

我想多花些时间。我曾花很多时间教导别人或帮助他们意识到自己也有能动性。如今我不会在当时就改动那本书，但我确实从那段经历中学到了很多。如果我再写点什么，我会写这个话题，因为我觉得仍有许许多多人被困在虚无的世界里，没意识到牢笼的门其实是开着的，他们可以走过去——是的，他们拥有在自己想要创造的世界里行动的能力。

Wanted to spend more time. I spent a lot of time teaching others or helping others to see that they have agency too. And now that I wouldn't have changed the book at that time, but I sure have learned a lot from that time. And if I were to write something more, I would write on this piece because I think there's many, many people still trapped in the ethereal world that don't realize that the jail cell door is open so they can walk over having a Yeah. They have a state agency in the world that they wanna create.

它不必建立在恐惧、胁迫和控制之上；它可以建立在希望、真理与富足之上。

And it doesn't have to be one of fear and coercion and control. It can be one of hope, truth, and abundance.

多么有力的一句话。我甚至不想再问下一个问题，因为我想把节目结束在这里。这句话太有力量了。Jeff，非常感谢你，最重要的是你一直是我亲密的朋友，总能提供敏锐的洞见和这样的分享。是的。

What a powerful statement. I don't even wanna ask another question because I wanna end it on that. That is such a powerful statement. Jeff, thank you so much mostly for just being a close friend and somebody that's always providing just keen insights and the things like that. Yeah.

能把你当作朋友，随时打电话向你请教真正可靠的建议，我感到非常幸运。所以谢谢你来做客。

I just feel super blessed to be able to call you a friend and somebody that I can always call on and get just really sound advice from. So thanks for coming.

彼此彼此，我等不及要看这段旅程的下一部分了，一定会很有趣。

Right back at you, and I can't wait for this to part of their journey. It's gonna be fun.

我很期待。

I'm excited.

我会成为一个狂热的听众。

An avid lit I'm gonna be an avid listener.

我很期待去探讨这些内容。做这档节目十年让我学到的一件事是：只要你对某件事感兴趣，就去联系专家，请他们来聊聊，你就能一起分享这段学习旅程。每期节目我都在学习，和观众以及嘉宾一起学，这真的非常有意思。

I'm excited to cover it. I'm just really excited about all these things. And the thing that I've learned from doing this show for a decade is if you do have an interest in something and you just kind of reach out to experts and bring them on for conversations. You can just share in this learning experience. I'm learning every show I do, I'm learning right along with the audience and the guests that come on, and it's just a really, really fun experience.

所以我期待去探讨其中的一些话题。我想强调：我依旧会聊比特币，依旧会请嘉宾来谈比特币，但也会扩展到所有这些新领域。希望我能把它们串联起来，呈现一个整体图景——这正是我真正想做的：看看我们到底要去哪里，兄弟，未来十年我们会走向何方？

So I'm looking forward to covering some of the stuff. And I wanna emphasize this, I'm still gonna cover Bitcoin. I'm still gonna be bringing on guests to talk about Bitcoin as well, but it's gonna be in addition to all these other things. And hopefully, I'm able to kinda stitch it all together and provide the holistic picture is what I'm really trying to do of where we're going, man. Where are we going in this coming decade?

一定会很疯狂。

It's gonna be nuts.

但会很有趣的。

But it'll be fun.

会很好玩的。而且我相信，对于那些正在摆脱对传统法币牢笼恐惧的人来说，这将是一个极其丰盛的世界。就像杰夫说的，大门敞开着，只要愿意，谁都可以走出去。所以真的非常令人兴奋。我们会在节目备注里放上杰夫的书链接。

It's gonna be fun. And it's gonna be I believe it's gonna be a very abundant world for those that are moving away from that fear of the legacy fiat entrapment prison cell. And like Jeff said, the door is wide open for those that wanna choose to walk out of it. So very exciting stuff. We're gonna have a link to Jeff's book in the show notes.

还有别的吗？据我了解，你最近不太活跃于 X，更多是在 Noster 上，对吧，杰夫？还有其他想重点推荐或宣传的东西吗？

Anything else? You're not really active on x. You're more active on Noster these days from what I understand, Jeff. Right? Any other highlights that you wanna put out there or things that you wanna promote?

没了。没有。嗯，我就期待关注你和你的学习之旅。看着会很有趣。

Nope. No. Yeah. Just I'm just looking forward to following you and your learning adventure on this. It's gonna be fun to watch.

谢谢，杰夫。非常感谢你抽时间。谢谢。

Thanks, Jeff. Thank you so much for making time. Thank you.

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