RWH007：投资传奇比尔·米勒谈亚马逊、比特币与巴菲特

我认为，这些股票现在看起来就像Facebook一样，非常便宜。

I do think, I mean, the stocks are just, it looks like Facebook, it's just a very cheap stock now.

普雷斯顿，让我们短暂休息一下，听听今天赞助商的消息。

Preston Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors.

当你经营一家小企业时，聘用合适的人才至关重要。

When you're running a small business, hiring the right person can make all the difference.

合适的员工能提升你的团队，提高生产力，并将你的业务推向新的高度。

The right hire can elevate your team, boost your productivity and take your business to the next level.

但找到这样的人本身可能就像一份全职工作。

But finding that person can feel like a full time job in itself.

这就是LinkedIn招聘的用武之地。

That's where LinkedIn jobs comes in.

他们的新AI助手通过为你匹配真正符合需求的顶尖候选人，消除了招聘中的猜测成分。

Their new AI assistant takes the guesswork out of hiring by matching you with top candidates who actually fit what you're looking for.

它不再让你逐份筛选简历，而是根据你的标准筛选申请者，并突出显示最匹配的人选，帮你节省数小时时间，在合适的人选出现时快速行动。

Instead of sifting through piles of resumes, it filters applicants based on your criteria and highlights the best matches, saving you hours and helping you move fast when the right person comes along.

最棒的是，这些优秀的候选人已经都在LinkedIn上。

The best part is that those great candidates are already on LinkedIn.

事实上，通过LinkedIn招聘的员工至少留任一年的可能性比通过主要竞争对手招聘的员工高出30%。

In fact, employees hired through LinkedIn are 30% more likely to stick around for at least a year compared to those hired through the leading competitor.

一次就招对人。

Hire right the first time.

前往 linkedin.com/studybill 免费发布职位，然后推广职位以使用LinkedIn Jobs的新AI助手，更轻松快捷地找到顶尖候选人。

Post your job for free at linkedin.com/studybill, then promote it to use LinkedIn jobs new AI assistant, making it easier and faster to find top candidates.

免费发布职位请访问 linkedin.com/studybill。

That's linkedin.com/studybill to post your job for free.

条款和条件适用。

Terms and conditions apply.

想象一下，借助真正理解客户的科技来扩展你的业务。

Imagine scaling your business with technology that understands your customers, literally.

这就是Alexa和AWS AI背后的故事。

That's the story behind Alexa and AWS AI.

每天，Alexa 在17种语言中处理超过10亿次交互，同时将客户摩擦降低40%。

Every day, Alexa processes over 1,000,000,000 interactions across 17 languages, all while reducing customer friction by 40%.

这不仅仅是让生活更轻松，更是关于转变客户互动并创造新的收入来源。

It's not just about making life easier, it's also about transforming customer engagement and generating new revenue streams.

幕后，AWS AI 驱动着70多个专用模型协同工作，打造自然对话，证明企业如何以自信和安全的方式大规模部署AI。

Behind the scenes, AWS AI powers more than 70 specialized models working together to create natural conversations, proving how enterprises can deploy AI at scale with confidence and security.

Alexa的AI能力在亚马逊庞大的运营中经过实战检验，实现了规模化的真实可衡量影响。

Alexa's AI capabilities were battle tested across Amazon's massive operations, delivering real measurable impact at scale.

这些相同的创新现在为其他企业提供了经过验证的框架，以提升效率、解锁新的收入来源并获得持久的市场优势。

These same innovations now give other businesses a proven framework to boost efficiency, unlock new revenue streams and gain a lasting market edge.

前往 aws.com/ai/rstory 了解Alexa的故事。

Discover the Alexa story at aws.com/ai/rstory.

那就是 aws.com/ai/rstory。

That's aws.com/ai/rstory.

你的比特币持有量越多，面临的挑战就越复杂。

The more your Bitcoin holdings grow, the more complex your challenges become.

最初简单的自我托管，如今已演变为涉及家族传承规划、复杂的安保决策，以及一个错误就可能损失数代财富的境况。

What started as a simple self custody now involves family legacy planning, sophisticated security decisions, and navigating situations where a single mistake could cost generations of wealth.

标准服务并未为这些高风险的现实情况而设计。

Standard services weren't built for these high stakes realities.

因此，长期投资者选择Unchained Signature——一项专为认真持有比特币的人士提供的高端私人客户服务，提供专业指导、稳健托管和持久的合作关系。

That's why long term investors choose Unchained Signature, a premium private client service for serious Bitcoin holders who want expert guidance, resilient custody, and an enduring partnership.

使用Signature服务，您将配备专属客户经理，他们了解您的目标，并在每一步为您提供帮助。

With Signature, you're paired with your own dedicated account manager, someone who understands your goals and helps you every step of the way.

您将享受全方位的入职服务、当日紧急支持、个性化教育、降低交易手续费，以及优先参与独家活动和功能的权益。

You get white glove onboarding, same day emergency support, personalized education, reduced trading fees, and priority access to exclusive events and features.

Unchained的协作托管模式旨在为那些希望自行保管私钥的人士，提供与全球最大比特币托管机构同等的安全保障。

Unchained's collaborative custody model is designed to provide the same security posture as the world's biggest Bitcoin custodians, but for those who prefer to hold their own keys.

了解更多关于Unchained Signature的信息，请访问unchained.com/preston。

Learn more about Unchained signature at unchained.com/preston.

结账时使用代码Preston 10，即可享受首年10%折扣。

Use code Preston 10 at checkout to get 10% off your first year.

比特币不仅关乎一生，更关乎世代。

Bitcoin isn't just for life, it's for generations.

好的。

Alright.

回到节目。

Back to the show.

在我采访你的这些年里——我想现在已经有21、22年了吧——你投资方式中一个非常独特的地方，就是你对不确定性非常坦然。

It seems like one of the really distinctive things about your approach to investing over all the years that I've been interviewing you, which I think now is '21, twenty two years, something like that, is that you're very comfortable with uncertainty.

我想请你谈谈这一点，谈谈你所说的不确定性与风险之间的区别。

And I wonder if you could talk a little about that, about the distinction you make between uncertainty and risk.

是的，这个区别最早是由经济学家弗兰克·奈特提出的。

Yes, it's a distinction that was, I guess, first pointed out by Frank Knight, The Economist.

所以，风险基本上就是保险公司所管理的那种，对吧？

So risk is basically what insurance companies are managing, right?

各种坏事都可能发生。

Is there all kinds of bad things happen.

他们承诺，如果你购买了他们的保单，当这些坏事发生时，他们会向你赔付。

And they promise to pay you if you have a policy with them if these bad things happen.

因此，他们会研究这些事件发生的过往经验、发生的概率以及一旦发生时的潜在损失，并据此进行管理。

And so what they do is they look at the experience of those things happening, the probabilities of those things happening and their exposures if those things do happen and they manage to that.

如果被雷击的概率是多少，或者被食物噎住、遭遇车祸，他们拥有大量数据，可以预测在两到三个标准差范围内，这些事件发生时他们需要支付的金额。

If the probability of being struck by lightning is whatever it is, and they're choking on a piece of meat or being in a car accident, they have a lot of data, which tells them that within two or three standard deviations of what they'll have to pay if those things happen.

这就是保险公司所做的。

That's what insurance companies do.

当人们谈论股票的风险管理时，他们指的并不是这种意思。

When people talk about risk management and stocks, that's not what they're talking about.

他们谈论的是凯恩斯所说的不可削减的不确定性，因为你根本不知道，因为你不知道这些事件的概率。

They're talking about what Keynes called irreducible uncertainty, because you just don't know, because you don't know the probabilities.

基础比率和概率都是未知的，因此你无法对此进行管理。

The base rates and the probabilities are not known, And therefore you can't manage that.

你只能去应对它。

You just have to deal with it.

如果你错了，这些事情发生了会怎样？

And what happens if you're wrong and these things occur?

人们对这种情况感到非常非常不安。

People are very, very uncomfortable with that.

这就是为什么市场下跌时他们会恐慌，因为他们不知道市场是下跌5%还是50%。

That's why they freak out when the market goes down, because they don't know if the market's going down 5% or 50%.

我认为这是因为我不知道世界将会发生什么。

And I think that's the, because they don't know what's going happen in the world.

所以我认为这就是巨大的区别。

So I think that's the big difference.

对我来说，我对这一点是有明确区分的。

For me, I do make a distinction about that.

你看，有亚马逊，我不知道亚马逊会跌多少，但我知道亚马逊不会破产。

Look, there's Amazon, I don't know how much Amazon can go down, but I know Amazon isn't going bankrupt.

我知道在任何情况下，它们都能产生现金流。

And I know that they can generate cash under basically any and all circumstances.

他们不产生现金的唯一原因是他们在进行资本支出，因为他们的业务太好了，不得不建造仓库、卡车等来配送商品。

The only reason they wouldn't generate cash is when they're spending on CapEx because their business is so good and then they got to build warehouses and trucks and stuff to deliver goods.

所以，这再次体现了查理·芒格的观点：最好的投资是那种一旦停止增长就会源源不断产生现金的企业，亚马逊就是这样的企业。

So again, it's a Charlie Munger point about the best business to own is the one that when it stops growing gushes cash, and that would be Amazon.

赌场也是如此。

It'd be casinos, too, for that matter.

威廉，我记得你不久前告诉我，你在对待不确定性方面，态度与巴菲特这样的人有所不同。你指出，在2020年3月市场因新冠疫情初期恐慌而暴跌时，以及1987年闪崩期间，巴菲特实际上什么都没做，因为不确定性太过极端，他选择退后，几乎陷入瘫痪。

William I remember you telling me not long ago that you have a, in some ways, different attitude to uncertainty than someone like Buffett, where Buffett, you pointed out in March 2020 when the market was getting killed by that initial COVID pandemic panic, and also in 1987 during the flash crash that Buffett actually didn't do anything, that the uncertainty was so extreme that he kind of stepped back and was almost paralyzed.

也许用‘瘫痪’这个词不太准确，但他确实只是在等待。

Maybe that's the wrong word for it, but certainly just waited.

你能谈谈这一点吗？

Can you talk a bit about that?

因为在我看来，你和他之间的这种差异非常鲜明——在不确定性极高、会让巴菲特极度不安的时刻，你却愿意采取行动。

Because it seems to me very distinctive, that difference between you and him, your willingness to do stuff at times where there's a great deal of uncertainty that would make someone like Buffett extremely uncomfortable.

当然。

Sure.

我得回到大约1990年的时候。

I got to go back to the I think it was 1990.

我记得巴伦周刊每年一月都会举办圆桌会议，通常在一月的头几周。

I remember that they do the Baron's round table every January, the first couple of weeks of January.

当时萨达姆·侯赛因入侵了科威特，布什总统给他下了最后通牒，要求他在一月二十日左右之前撤出，否则就要派兵和轰炸机介入。

And so Saddam Hussein had invaded Kuwait and President Bush had given him an ultimatum that he needed to be out of that by January 20 or something like that, around that day, or he was going to send in the troops and the bombers.

于是市场开始暴跌。

And so the market sold off.

他入侵科威特后，油价飙升，市场大幅下跌。

He invaded Kuwait, oil prices shot through the roof, the market sold off significantly.

他们问圆桌会议上的人们都在做什么。

They asked the people on the round table what they were doing.

当时在场的有约翰·内夫、彼得·林奇，还有一众知名人物，比如保罗·都铎·琼斯。

It was John Neff and Peter Lynch and a bunch of luminaries, Paul Tudor Jones is on there.

他们每个人都说：‘我们不知道接下来会发生什么。’

And every one of them said that, Well, we don't know what's going to happen.

不确定性太多了，我们有个截止日期，但完全不知道会发生什么。

There's too much uncertainty that's going to We have this deadline and we don't have any idea.

因此他们非常谨慎，都提高了现金比例。

And so they were very cautious, they'd raised cash and all.

保罗·都铎·琼斯事后讲述这个故事时说，圆桌会议结束后，他回到办公室，心想：等等，这些可是世界上最聪明的投资者，但他们全都谨慎或担忧。

As Paul Tudor Jones tells the story afterwards, after the round table was over, he went back to his office and said, Wait a minute, these are some of the smartest investors in the world and they're all cautious or worried.

所以如果他们都担心，那整个世界都在担心，因此反向操作才是正确的。

So if they're all worried, then the whole world's worried and therefore it's the right thing to go the other way.

于是他买进了一大堆资产。

So he bought a bunch of stuff.

当然，一旦炸弹开始落下，市场就开始上涨，全年所有的涨幅都在1月20日到2月10日左右这二十天内完成。

Of course, as soon as the bomb started dropping, the market started rising and the market made all of its gains between whatever it was January 20 and February 10 or something like that, twenty days, all the gains for the year.

所以这是一个很好的例子。

And so that's a good example.

这就是我努力去做的其中一件事：市场中到底有多少恐惧？

That's one of the things I try and do is I say, how much fear is in the market?

市场中有多少谨慎情绪？

How much caution is in the market?

正如我昨天所说，现在有六个新高点和两千个新低点。

You have, as I said yesterday, six new highs and 2,000 new lows.

这充分体现了市场中的恐惧情绪。

That's pretty much fear in the market.

历史上，这种情况需要更多的表现。

Historically it's taken more than that.

那些一直相当准确的技术分析师认为，我们还有下行空间，最乐观的情况下可能再下跌7%到10%，然后可能从我们目前的4000或3900点左右跌至3400点。

And the technicians who have been mostly right say that we've got downside, maybe another 7% to 10% best case, and then maybe down to 3,400 from where we are today, 4,000 or 3,900, something like that.

我们现在在哪里？

Where we are?

我们目前是3860.69点。

We're 3,860, 69.

是的。

Yes.

我认为我真正关注的那些更优秀的技术分析师认为，3700点和3800点将是关键支撑位，如果这些位置守住，将会出现强劲的反弹行情。

I think the ones that are the better technicians that I've seen that I actually pay attention to are thinking 3700, 3800, and if that holds, you're going to have a big snapback rally.

威廉，这挺有趣的。

William It's funny.

我一直觉得技术分析有点荒谬，像是巫术一样。

I've always kind of assumed that technical analysis was kind of nonsense, that it was sort of voodoo.

几周前德莫兰对我说过，实际上在某些情况下它可能有用。

Asked what DeMotoran said, signed to me a few weeks ago where he said, Actually, maybe it can be useful in certain circumstances.

我还记得杰夫·维尼克也曾告诉我同样的话。

And I remember Jeff Vinik once telling me the same thing.

为什么它有用，而不是仅仅在研究内脏或寻找并不存在的模式？

Why is it useful and not just studying entrails and finding patterns that don't exist?

格雷格，嗯，我认为它现在比以往任何时候都更有用。

Greg Well, it's actually more useful than it's ever been, in my opinion.

我不知道。

Don't know.

学者们对各种技术形态做了大量研究，发现其中一些形态在一段时间内确实有效，但一旦被公开发表，它们就不再有效了，因为人们可以将这些知识融入自己的交易策略中。

The academics have done a lot of work on the various technical patterns and they found that some of them actually worked for a while, but once they published about them, they stopped working because people could incorporate that into their stuff.

几个月前，也许是秋天，我参加了一次斯坦福研究所的电话会议。

I was on a call, a Stanford Institute call several months ago, maybe it in the fall.

会上有一位人士是量化交易员，他们向他询问了量化方法和相关技术。

And one of the guys who was on the call was a guy who was a quant and they asked him about quantitative methods and methodologies and stuff.

他开始讲解其中的理论和相关性。

He was going into the theory of that and correlations.

他基本上说，所谓的技术分析。

He said basically so called technical analysis.

他说，我从未觉得量化工具真的那么有用。

Says, I've never found it to be that useful, quantitative stuff.

当你进行一些复杂的数学运算时，或许能发现一些模式。

And when you do some sophisticated math, you can maybe figure out some patterns.

他说，但在加密货币市场中，技术分析效果非常好。

He said, But in crypto, technicals work great.

他说，首先，没有基本面。

He said, A, there's no fundamentals.

所以这完全是心理作用。

And so it's all psychology.

他说，其次，有很多人根本不知道自己在做什么。

He said, And B, it's a lot of people that don't know what they're doing.

他说，因此他们的行为就像那些不知道自己在做什么的人一样。

And he said, So they behave as people behave when they don't know what they're doing.

他说，所以技术分析相当具有预测性。

And he said, So technicals, they're pretty predictive.

我觉得这是对的，但我并不把技术分析理解为寻找特定形态。

I think that's right, but I don't view technicals in the sense of I'm looking for particular patterns.

我把它看作是一种可视化供需关系的方式。

I'm looking at them as a way to basically visualize supply and demand.

显然，经济学的核心就是供需关系，股价反映的是证券在不同时间点和经济阶段的供需状况。

So obviously economics is all about supply and demand and stock prices are about the supply and demand of securities at various points in time and in different phases of the economy.

我只是在观察供需基本面。

I'm just looking at what the supply demand fundamentals are.

因此，当需求下降，而市场上可供出售的股票数量超过该价格下的需求时，这种失衡显然会导致价格下跌。

And so when the demand is dropping and the supply of stock for sale is greater than the demand for stock at that price, then obviously that imbalance is going to be met by lower prices.

最终，经过一段时间后，许多因素会开始达到平衡。

And finally, there's so much that begins to equilibrate after a while.

我认为我们已经接近了。

I think we're close.

现在，外部事件可能会产生影响。

Now, external events can make that difference.

从我的角度来看，我正在尝试买入。

From my standpoint, I'm trying to buy.

我在买入，但没有接到推销电话，我基本上是在买那些我认为一年或两年后会大幅上涨的东西。

I'm buying and not getting merchant calls, I'm basically buying stuff that I think is, if I look out a year or two, I think it's going to be a lot higher.

这是市场中罕见的时刻之一，如果我看看亚马逊，例如，它又是我除了比特币之外的最大持仓。

This is one of the rare times in the market when if I look at Amazon, for example, which again is my largest holding that in Bitcoin.

我现在看亚马逊，我觉得亚马逊很容易涨到2100、2200，如果我在屏幕上找到它的话。

I look at Amazon right now, I think Amazon easily be up 2,100, 2,200, if I find it on the screen somewhere.

2100是高点，当时是3500、3600。

2,100, the high was 3,500, 3,600.

所以要回到之前的水平，还需要上涨50%。

So that's 50% up to get back to where it was.

有很多东西现在跌得很惨，要回到原位需要涨100%。

There's a lot of stuff down that's down where it'll be 100% to get back to where it was.

我非常确定它们会回到那个水平。

I'm pretty sure they'll get back there.

所以，这是一个罕见的情况：如果我想看一两年后的前景，亚马逊并不明显比我在整个市场中能找到的其他东西更好。

So it's one of those rare cases where Amazon isn't unequivocally better than other stuff that I can find in the overall market if I want to look out a year or two.

但如果我想看十年后的前景，那就无所谓了。

Now, if I want to look out ten years, it doesn't matter.

所以，你现在是不买亚马逊，还是还是会买？

So would you not be buying Amazon at this point or you would be?

威廉，不，不。

William Oh, no, no.

如果我没持有它，我一定会现在就买入。

If I didn't own it, I'd absolutely buy it right here.

威廉，我记得上次我们谈话时，你说过，如果你从头开始，你会乐意将20%到30%的资产投入亚马逊。

William I remember the last time we talked, you were saying to me, if you were starting afresh, you would happily put 20 or 30% of your assets in Amazon.

如果你现在重新审视它，你会怎么做？

What would you do now if you were looking at it today?

我可能会投入20%。

I would probably put 20.

还有很多其他东西可以买，但像这么高质量的标的并不多；不过我认为，如果你把20%投入亚马逊，还可以再把10%投入Facebook、阿里巴巴或谷歌之类的公司。

There's lot of other stuff to buy, not a lot of stuff that's of that quality, but I think if you put 20 in Amazon, you could put 10 in Facebook or Alibaba or Google, for example.

我觉得微软太贵了。

I think Microsoft's expensive.

我觉得苹果太贵了。

I think Apple's expensive.

苹果今天实际上下跌了。

Apple broke down today actually.

这可能告诉我，它还有更大的下行空间。

That probably tells me that it's got more downside.

它的价格远高于趋势线，而大多数其他股票已经跌破了趋势线。

It's way above its trend line and most of other stuff has broken the trend line.

你做的一件显然具有革命性的事情，是在价值投资方面彻底改变了它的做法——你开始投资像谷歌、Facebook、亚马逊这样的优秀企业。

One of the things obviously that you did that was kind of revolutionary in terms of value investing, where you really changed the way value investing was done, think, that you did start investing in these great businesses like the Googles and the Facebooks and the Amazons and the like.

几个月前我问你这个问题时，我记得你说过一些对我影响极大的话。当时我正在尝试简化人们的投资方式，总结我学到的投资方法，认为投资本质上就是评估价值并以远低于其价值的价格买入。

And when I asked you about this a few months ago, I think, you said something that had a huge impact on me where I was saying to you when I was trying to simplify the way that people invest, what I learned about how to invest, that it was all about basically valuing things and buying them for much less than they were worth.

你纠正了我，并谈到了你如何修正了这一观点。

And you kind of corrected me and talked about how you had amended it.

如果我没记错的话，你基本上是说，像马里奥·加贝利、比尔·尼格伦、巴菲特、克里斯·戴维斯、梅森·霍金斯这样的朋友——这些你认识的经典的传统价值投资者——他们会以远低于当前价值的折扣价买入企业。

What you basically were saying, if I remember rightly, you said that all of these guys like Mario Gabelli or Bill Nygren or Buffett, Chris Davis, Mason Hawkins, these friends of yours who are kind of classic traditional value investors, you said they would buy businesses at big discounts to what they're currently worth.

我问你，那这就是关键吗？

And I said to you, so is that the key?

你说，不，不。

You said, no, no.

对我来说，关键是以远低于你预期其未来价值的价格买入。

For me, it's about buying them at a huge discount to what you believe they will be worth.

这让我一下子停住了。

And that kind of stopped me in my tracks.

于是我想到，这实际上是一个非常深刻的转变。

So I was thinking, That's actually a really profound shift.

这似乎描述了你当初投资亚马逊、谷歌和Facebook时的做法。

That seems to describe what you were doing with Amazon, Google, Facebook.

你能谈谈这种不同的企业估值方式，以及你希望拥有什么样的企业吗？

Can you talk about that different way of valuing businesses and thinking about what you want to own?

丹尼尔，是的。

Daniel Yes.

这实际上正是我思考问题的方式。

And that's actually the way that I do think about it.

我的意思是，我曾说过，用于评估企业价值的所有信息都基于过去。

I mean, one of the things I've said is that 100% of the information that you have to use to value a business is based on the past.

即使是对收益的预测，也是你或公司曾经做出的过去收益预测，或者是增长率预测，但100%的价值都取决于未来。

Even if it's an earnings forecast, it's a past earnings forecast that you or the company might have made or a growth rate forecast, but 100% of the value depends on the future.

因此，只要过去能够复制，未来就会复制过去，那么所有这些过去的数据就非常有价值。

And so to the extent that the past replicates, the future replicates the past, all that past data is very valuable.

所以，本质上，资本回报率的稳定性、竞争优势这类因素，如果能够被预测到未来，那么它们对于判断企业当前价值和未来可能价值就极为重要。

So the stability of in essence, the returns on capital and the competitive position and that kind of stuff, if those things are forecastable into the future, then they'll be very valuable in terms of figuring out what the business is currently worth and what it might be worth.

而如果这些因素无法预测，另一个问题是，成长型投资者实际上往往采取了本应是价值投资者的做法，也就是说，成长型投资者对公司在增长过程中不可避免的波动缺乏耐心。

To the extent that they're not, and the other issue is that growth investors tended to basically be what invest the way that I think value investors should invest, which is that basically the growth investors have too little patience with the inevitable hiccups in companies' growth rates.

他们愿意为当前可见的基本面支付高价。

They're willing to pay a lot for something based on the current visible fundamentals.

一旦这些基本面发生变化，他们就迅速撤离。

Those fundamentals change, they flee.

而价值投资者则不同，只要他们对当前可见的基本面感到安心，即使股价下跌，他们也不会逃离。

Whereas with value investors, mostly if they're comfortable with the visible fundamentals, then if the stock price goes down, they don't flee.

或者如果它们在增长，就会进入衰退。

Or if they're earning up, they're going go into recession.

所以你真正想要拥有的是那些增长率——尤其是迈克尔·莫比乌斯所说的竞争优势期，巴菲特称之为护城河——能够被预测多年的企业，这样你就能有信心，只要你有耐心，即使看起来估值很高，巴菲特经常说市场看起来昂贵、确实昂贵，但其实并没有看起来那么贵。

So you really want to own companies where basically the growth rate can be, and especially the competitive advantage period as Michael Mobius would have it, Buffett would say the moat, you can project that out for many years and therefore you can have some confidence that if you're just patient, that even if it looks expensive, Buffett's a lot of times talked about the market looking expensive and being expensive, but it's not as expensive as it looks.

当利率较低时，估值往往较高。

And that's when interest rates are low and valuations tend to be high.

但没错，我们通常寻找那些理想情况下不需要卖出的投资标的，因为它们已经达到了你的估值目标。

But yes, we've tended to look for things that ideally you wouldn't have to sell because they've hit your valuation target.

如果这个估值目标能以相当快的速度持续上升，那就再好不过了。

If that valuation targets keep moving forward at a pretty rapid rate, then that's great.

正如巴菲特所说，他喜欢买入并长期持有在伯克希尔·哈撒韦的这类企业。

As Buffett says forever, the kind of business he likes to buy and stick in Berkshire Hathaway.

所以当你几分钟前描述你个人的投资组合时，提到像Meta（前身为Facebook）和亚马逊这样的公司，这正是这种投资方式，对吧？

So when you were describing your personal portfolio a few minutes ago and you were talking about things like Meta and formerly Facebook and Amazon and the like, that's sort of this approach to investing, right?

这些公司是你能在远低于你预期其未来三五十年价值的价位上买入的。

It's these companies that you're able to buy at a huge discount to what you believe they will thirty:fifty be worth.

是的。

Yes.

我最大的持仓之一是盖内特公司。

One of my biggest holdings is Gannett.

它是谁？

Who is it?

约翰·冈恩，这家西海岸大公司的前首席执行官，他的名字叫凯西。

John Gunn, the former CEO of the big firm out in the West Coast, his name is Casey.

他把他们持有的公司描述为雨中的蛋糕。

He described the companies that they own as cakes in the rain.

你持有它们的时间越长，它们就会变得越糟，因为它们是结构性衰退的业务。

The longer you own them, the worse they're going to get because they're secularly declining businesses.

毫无疑问，报业正在结构性衰退，但盖内特是美国最大的报业公司，它们正在产生自由现金流，并从高固定成本的大型印刷设备转向数字化。

And so there's no doubt that the newspaper business is secularly declining, but Gannett, it's the largest newspaper company in the country and they're generating free cash and they're converting over from the big printing press, high fixed cost stuff to digital.

因此，他们在过去几个月关闭了几家地区性报纸，完全转向数字化。

So they shut down a few of their regional newspapers in the last few months and they're just going digital.

《纽约时报》由于其数字业务实现了巨大逆转，而盖内特实际上可能比《纽约时报》获得更多订阅用户。

The New York Times has had a huge turnaround just because of its digital business, which Gannett can actually probably get more subscribers than the Times can.

因此我们认为，盖内特目前股价为3.7美元，我们预计在三到四年内可以达到20美元。

So we think Gannett, which is now $3.7 we think Gannett can be $20 in three or four years.

这只是基于他们当前的发展轨迹。

That's just on the current trajectory that they're on.

然后，随着估值变化，届时他们将偿还债务——他们已经在偿还债务，但债务将基本消失。

And then with valuations being, then at the time they'll be paying down debt, they're already paying down debt, but then the debt will be largely gone.

之后，公司将变成一个纯粹的自由现金流生成器，股价也不再是3.7美元。

And then there'll be just a free cash generator and it won't be a $3.7 stock anymore.

因此，这是一个典型的例子：你买入的是一家当前资产负债表糟糕、但即将大幅改善的公司，其债务将从公司中彻底消失。

So that's an example of company where basically what you're doing there is you're just buying a bad balance sheet that's going to get a lot better and that the debt is going to disappear from the company.

我在这个市场中特别喜欢的一点是，你可以买入这类资产——本质上，你是在买入公开市场的杠杆收购标的。

That's one of the things that I really like in this market is that you can buy things like that to where the only thing you have to be Well, basically differently, you can buy public LBOs.

它们的资产负债表上有大量债务，但这些债务将在未来几年内逐步消失。

So they've got a lot of debt on their balance sheet, but that debt is going to disappear over the next several years.

对他们来说，最理想的情况就是通货膨胀，因为债务是固定成本，而利率正在上升，债务义务的实际价值正在下降。

And the best thing that could happen to them is inflation because the debt's fixed cost and interest rates are rising and the value of their debt obligations are falling in real terms.

威廉，我想问问我们是否可以转向比特币和加密货币。

William I wondered if we could turn to Bitcoin and crypto.

我在这方面有很多问题。

I have a lot of questions on this front.

我认为看待这个问题的明显背景是这种误解的概念。

I think the obvious context to look at it in is this whole idea of misperception.

因为正如我们之前讨论亚马逊时提到的，你对它的看法与市场其他人的看法非常不同。

Because as we were talking about with Amazon, you had a very different perception than the rest of the market.

而在这里，关于比特币，人们对它的看法存在着非常激烈的理念分歧。

And here again with Bitcoin, there are just these very, very heated ideological differences about Bitcoin.

这几乎就像对比特币有着某种宗教或政治立场上的差异。

It's almost like sort of religious or political difference about Bitcoin.

在我看来，你传统上的优势之一就是能够稍微超然地退后一步，问：这到底是什么东西？

And it seems to me traditionally part of your advantage has been to step back somewhat dispassionately and to say, what actually is this thing?

你能先谈谈这种看待世界的方式是从何而来的吗？

Can you talk first about where this way of thinking about the world comes from?

因为这显然部分源于你对维特根斯坦和威廉·詹姆斯的研究，以及这种更清晰地看待事物、减少偏见、并试图问‘这到底是什么’的理念。

Because it clearly stemmed in part from your study of Wittgenstein and William James and this whole idea of seeing things more clearly, not being so biased and trying to say, what actually is this thing?

所以在深入讨论比特币的细节之前，我想请你谈谈这种哲学性的问题：你如何真正地描述和清晰地看待事物，以免被自己的偏见和成见所困？

And so before we get to the detail of Bitcoin, I wonder if you could actually talk about that kind of philosophical problem of how you actually describe things and see things clearly so that you're not just caught up in your own prejudice and bias.

加文：是的，我认为这种思想源于威廉·詹姆斯、维特根斯坦，后来还有约翰·杜威，以及二十世纪的理查德·罗蒂；从某种意义上说，你可以回溯到康德，甚至叔本华。

Gavin Yeah, would say it came out of a lot of initially William James, Wittgenstein, and then John Dewey, and then Richard Rorty in the twentieth century in the sense of, you go back to Kant, for example, or Schopenhauer.

叔本华很有趣，因为他花了无数年研究康德，最终认为康德大体上是对的，但遗漏了一些关键点。

And so Schopenhauer is interesting because he spent countless years just studying Kant and concluding that Kant had things mostly right, but he missed a few big things.

他真正忽略的是他在谈论‘物自体’时的观点。

And the thing that he really missed was when he talked about the ding on seek, the thing in itself.

因此，你根本无法直接看到事物本身的样子。

So what you have is you don't have no ability to see things as they are themselves.

你所看到的，实际上是事物在你心中的表象，而这种表象可能与事物的真实状态相符，也可能不符。

What you see is effectively your representation of them, which may or may not fit the way that things actually are.

叔本华的洞见是，你根本不需要‘事物本身’这一假设。

And Schopenhauer's insight was that you don't have any need of the hypothesis of things as they are.

因为它对你没有任何用处，因为它无法触及。

It doesn't do any work for you because it's inaccessible.

因此，你所拥有的只是你感知到的事物的表象。

Therefore, all you have is your representation of things as you perceive them.

因此，如果你进一步走向威廉·詹姆斯，他提出的一个观点，或者我个人最初的想法是：没错，正是如此。

Therefore, if you then go forward to William James, one of the points that he made or personally, I guess initially was, yes, that's exactly right.

因此，你真正关心的，只是这些观点在帮助你应对所处世界时有多实用。

And therefore, what you really care about is just how useful are these views that you have to navigate the world that you're in.

我想，如果我没理解错的话，这让我想到了一个故事。

I think this comes to mind if I get it right.

关于三位棒球裁判，他们被问到是如何判好球和坏球的。

There's a story of the three baseball umpires and they're asked how they call balls and strikes.

第一位棒球裁判，可以被称为康德主义者或近康德主义者，他说：‘我判的是球本来的样子。'

And so the first baseball umpire who could be called a Kantian or a near Kantian, and he says, Well, I call them as they are.

如果是好球，我就判为好球。

If they're strikes, I call them strikes.

如果是坏球，我就判为坏球。

If they're balls, I call them balls.

在哲学上，这被称为现实主义。

And then so that's in philosophy, you call that realism.

按事物本来的样子来判罚。

Call them the way that they are.

然后还有一类是融贯论者，他们认为真理就是那些彼此一致协调的东西。

And then there's basically the coherence theorists who believe that truth is basically things that cohere consistently together.

融贯论者的裁判说：嗯，我按我看到的样子来判。

The coherence theorist umpire says, Well, I call them as I see them.

如果我看成是好球，我就判为好球。

If I see them as strikes, I call them strikes.

如果我看成是坏球，我就判为坏球。

I see them as balls, I call them balls.

所以显然，他有可能判错了，但那是他看到的样子。

So obviously leaving open that he could be calling them the wrong way, but that's the way he sees them.

然后是实用主义裁判，他说，在我判之前，它们什么都不是。

And then you get the pragmatic umpire, he says, aren't anything until I call them.

我认为这才是关键。

I think that's the key.

从我的角度来看，我对比特币本身并没有特定的立场。

From my standpoint, I don't have a particular view one way or the other about Bitcoin as it is.

查理·芒格认为比特币是对货币的威胁，是邪恶的。

Charlie Munger thinks it's a threat to currencies, it's evil.

许多金融专家在2017年对比特币持非常负面的看法。

A lot of finance mavens were very negative on Bitcoin in 2017.

现在，有些人改变了看法，比如保罗·都铎·琼斯、拉里·芬克，还有橡树资本的霍华德·马克斯，他们曾经谴责比特币，但现在认为这也可以接受。

Now, some have come around, Paul Tudor Jones, Larry Fink now, Howard Marks at Oaktree, who were denouncing it then and now that, this can be okay.

我们可能在这方面错了。

We probably wrong about that.

杰米·戴蒙说，称比特币是欺诈之类的是错误的。

Jamie Dimon says it was wrong to call it a fraud and stuff like that.

但巴菲特和芒格仍然持反对态度。

But Buffett and Munger are still out there.

我的观点是，这东西有多有用？

My view is how useful is this thing?

不管它是什么，它有多有用？

Whatever it is, how useful is it?

它在我的投资组合中能否完成其他东西无法完成的工作？

Does it do a job in my portfolio that I can't have done with something else?

在什么情况下它会表现良好？

Under what circumstances will it do well?

在什么情况下它会表现不佳？

Under what circumstances will it not do well?

我对比特币的关键看法是，它是世界上唯一一个经济实体——当然也是货币性实体——其供应量不受需求影响。

My key to Bitcoin is that it's the only economic entity in the world, certainly monetary, it's just called economic entity in the world that the supply is unaffected by the demand.

所以，如果黄金的价格现在是1800美元，而黄金价格变成18000美元，那么就会有更多黄金被开采。

So if gold, which is what's gold, dollars 1,800 say something like that, if gold was $18,000 instead of 1,800, there'd be a lot more gold mined.

因此，今天开采不经济的黄金将会变得有利可图。

So gold that was uneconomic to mine today would become economic.

我想查理·芒格在伯克希尔的会议上说过，他认为一百年后，任何法币的价值都将相对于今天归零。

And I mean, Charlie Munger said, I think at the Berkshire meeting that he expects that any Fiat currency in a hundred years will be worth zero compared to what it's worth today.

这是因为人们不断增发这种货币。

That's because they keep creating more of it.

而比特币今年的供应量预计只会增长约1.7%。

And with Bitcoin, the supply this year will grow about 1.7% maybe.

因此，你唯一需要问关于比特币的问题是：从长期来看，需求是否会超过1.7%乃至1.5%，并一直持续到接近零？

And so the only question you have to ask about Bitcoin is over the long term, will the demand exceed in essence 1.71.5% then all the way down to zero?

我认为需求的增长速度会快于这个比例。

I think it's going to grow, demand's going to grow faster than that.

而且

And

抱歉，比尔，为了像我这样不懂这方面的人能理解，这主要是因为比特币的供应量固定在大约2100万枚，目前大约已经挖出了1900万枚。

sorry, Bill, just to explain that for people like me who are not experts on this, this is basically because the supply is fixed at about 21,000,000 coins and about 19,000,000 have been mined so far.

所以我们能解释一下吗？针对那些对比特币一窍不通的人。

So we know can you just explain that for the idiots tied to Bitcoin?

比特币的供应量有点像你曾经见过的那种东西。

Supply of Bitcoin is a little bit like you've ever seen that.

那个最近刚去世的发明家是谁？他发明了那个黑盒子。

Who's the inventor who just died recently, who invented that black box.

当你打开开关，盖子就会打开，一只手伸出来把开关再关掉，然后把它放回盒子里。

When you flip the switch and the lid came up and a hand came out and it turned the switch back off again and get one down to the box.

基本上，比特币就是这样。

Basically that's what Bitcoin is.

它是一个协议，而比特币的数量有一个特定的特性，那就是基本上会减半。

It's a protocol and effectively the number of Bitcoins has a certain feature that basically goes in half.

新供应量每四年减半一次。

New supply goes in half every four years.

所以我认为，每十分钟会生成12个比特币。

And so I think what is it, 12 Bitcoins every ten minutes are created.

所有计算机和矿工都在解方程，就是为了获得这些比特币，只要他们验证协议正常运行、没有双重支付等问题，就能得到这些比特币。

That's what all the computers and the miners are solving equations just so they can those Bitcoins, which are given to them if they verify that the protocol is functioning properly and there's no double counting and stuff like that.

但这个数量是固定的。

But that's fixed.

总量是两千一百万个，到2140年，比特币的供应就会耗尽。

It's twenty one million and 2140, that's when the supply will run out.

那么当比特币供应耗尽后，谁来维护网络？矿工们又该做什么？

And then for Bitcoin, who's so going to maintain the What are the miners going to do that?

他们仍然会维护账本，只不过那时他们不再获得比特币，而是收取交易手续费。

Well, they're still going to maintain the ledger and they're going to do that though, they get fees for that instead of getting Bitcoin.

同样的过程将继续进行，除非比特币从工作量证明转向权益证明，我认为这目前对比特币构成潜在风险，但并不严重。

The same process will be underway unless they go from what's called proof of work to proof of stake, which I think is a potential risk for Bitcoin right now, but not a big one.

所以当你解释比特币看涨的核心论点时，你有这种将复杂事物简化为易懂概念的天赋，那么这个核心论点本质上是不是供需关系——即供应极其有限？

So when you explain the essence of the bull case for Bitcoin, and you have this kind of gift for simplifying things and reducing the complexity to something kind of more graspable, is the essence of the case basically the supply demand argument that there's very limited supply?

供应量正以你刚才描述的这种类似家禽增长的方式增加，但需求却巨大且不断增长。

The supply is growing in this kind of poultry way that you just described, and yet there's enormous potential and growing demand.

这就是它的本质吗？

Is that the simple essence of it?

确实是的，但让我说得更具体一点。

It is, but let me make it maybe more concrete.

我举两个例子，一个是人人都能理解的，第二个是大家理论上能理解，但可能不了解细节。

I'll give two examples, one that everybody will understand and the second one, they will understand theoretically, but maybe not the details.

人人都能理解的例子是，巴菲特说比特币是一种非生产性资产。

So the one that everybody will understand is when what Buffett says is that Bitcoin is a nonproductive asset.

他说：我不会为了世界上所有的比特币给你25美元，但如果我买一块农田，我可以用它种东西。

He said, I wouldn't give you $25 for all the Bitcoins in the world, but if I buy farmland, I can grow stuff with it.

如果我买一家公司，它能为我产生股息、收益和现金流。

If I buy a company, can generate dividends and earnings and cash from me.

比特币却做不到这些。

Bitcoin doesn't do any of that stuff.

所以他说，这就像黄金。

So he says, it's like gold.

它只是静静地躺在你的投资组合里，但它是非生产性的，因此他无法为其估值。

Can sit there and look at It sits in a place in your portfolio, but it's nonproductive and therefore he can't value it.

我认为这说得通。

And I think fair enough.

我的意思是，如果你认为唯一能估值的只有生产性资产，那也没人逼你去买它。

Mean, if the only thing that you think you can value are productive assets, then no one's making you buy it.

忽略它就行了。

Ignore it.

现在，对大多数人来说，可能更普通的一个例子是，我曾经用这个例子跟我好朋友克里斯·戴维斯讨论过，我想我可能跟你说过。

Now, other maybe more mundane thing for most people would be that I've used this, think I might've told you, used this with my good friend, Chris Davis.

我对克里斯说，他参加过我所有关于比特币的重要会议，从比特币价格只有200美元的时候就开始了，但他从未购买过。

And I said to Chris, who's been in every meeting, major meeting that I've been in on Bitcoin going back to when it was $200 and he's never bought it.

他的论点是，是的，我明白比特币可能是一种数字黄金。

And his argument is, well, yes, I understand that could be digital gold.

事实上，它可能比黄金更好，但我也不持有黄金。

In fact, it probably might be better than gold, but I don't own gold either.

它是一种非生产性资产。

It's a nonproductive asset.

他对这一点的看法像巴菲特。

He's got a Buffett view on that.

我为什么要持有比特币？

Why would I own Bitcoin?

我给他的第一个回答是，投资的目标并不是持有生产性资产。

My first answer to him is, well, the objective of investing is not to own productive assets.

目标是赚钱。

The objective is to make money.

所以问题是，你能靠这个东西赚钱吗？

So the question is, can you make money with this thing?

因为它会给你分红，但如果你能靠它赚钱的话。

Because it gives you dividends, but if you can make money with it.

我告诉他的是，听好了，换一种更好的方式来思考这个问题，克里斯。

What I said to him, said, but look, here's a better way to think of it, Chris.

你是保险领域的专家，对吧？

You're an expert in insurance, right?

他说：是的，我自称是我祖父时期纽约州的保险监理官。

He's like, yes, I purported to be my grandfather's insurance commissioner of New York.

我父亲是一位长期的保险分析师。

And my father was a longtime insurance analyst.

我年轻时出版过一份名为《保险分析师观察》之类的通讯。

I published a newsletter when I was young called the insurance analyst observer or something like that.

于是我问他：那你怎么评估一份保险单的价值？

And I said, so how do you value an insurance policy?

他说：其实，评估一家保险公司非常简单。

He said, Well, you can evaluate insurance company really easily.

你可以查看他们的风险敞口、资本状况、过往经验，以及投资组合的质量，等等。

Can look at the exposures, you can look at the capital, you can look at the experience they've had, you can look at the quality of their investment portfolio on and on.

我说的不是保险公司，我说的是保险单。

Said, I didn't say an insurance company, I said an insurance policy.

他停顿了一下。

And he paused a second.

我说：好吧，让我告诉你我是怎么想的，你告诉我我哪里错了。

I said, Well, here, let me tell you the way I think about that and you tell me where I'm wrong.

我说：你拥有保险，你有健康保险、汽车保险、房屋保险、人寿保险，类似的东西，对吧？

I said, You own insurance, You have health insurance, you have car insurance, you have homeowners insurance, life insurance, stuff like that, right?

财产保险。

Property insurance.

他回答：对。

He's like, Yeah.

我说：这些保单的内在价值是什么？

I said, What's the intrinsic value of those policies?

你每年都要为这些保单支付一笔费用。

You write a check every year for those policies.

我说，那这些保单的价值在哪里？

And I said, And what's the value of those?

我说，我的看法是，你实际上是在付钱给他人，买一份你希望永远用不上的保单。

I said, The way I look at that is you are paying somebody else basically for a policy that you hope is worthless.

你不希望过早去世。

You don't want to die prematurely.

你不希望患上重病。

You don't want to get serious illness.

你不希望家里被偷。

Don't want to have your house broken into.

当真发生严重不幸时，有一份能赔付你的东西是有价值的，只不过如果保险公司倒闭了，那这笔钱就归你了。

And it's valuable to you to have something that will pay you if something really bad happens, except if company goes bad, it's yours.

你拥有它，一旦发生意外，它就能解决你的问题。

You own it and it's going to solve your problem with that if that happens.

现在我们有一种东西叫黄金，它可以起到同样的作用。

Well, right now we have something called gold, which could do that.

但同样，它的供应量并不是固定的，而其他所有东西，如果你住在委内瑞拉、尼日利亚、黎巴嫩、乌克兰战争爆发时，或者阿富汗美军撤出时，情况都是如此。

But again, its supply isn't fixed, but everything else out there is something that if you live in Venezuela, you live in Nigeria, live in Lebanon, you live in Ukraine when the war broke out, all of that stuff, Afghanistan, when The US pulled out.

当美军从阿富汗撤出时，西方联合公司停止了向阿富汗汇款或从阿富汗接收汇款。

When the US pulled out of Afghanistan, Western Union stopped sending remittances there or taking them from Afghanistan.

但如果你拥有比特币，你就没事。

But if you had Bitcoin, you were fine.

你的比特币就在那里，只要对方有手机，你就可以把它发送给世界上任何一个人。

Your Bitcoin is there, you can send it to anybody in the world, they have a phone.

因此，我认为比特币本质上是一种应对各种金融灾难的保险政策。

So I consider Bitcoin basically an insurance policy against financial catastrophe of one sort or another.

它不一定要非此即彼。

It doesn't have to be all or nothing.

也不必像美国爆发战争、银行全部关闭之类的情况才需要。

Doesn't have to be like there's some war in The United States or some kind of thing where the banks are all shut and stuff like that.

只是当疫情爆发时，货币供应量发生了什么变化，这一点就很明显了。

It's just the case that if there's a look what happened to the money supply when the pandemic hit.

当美联储在疫情期间介入，大量印钞并救助抵押房地产投资信托基金及其他从事商业票据等业务的机构时，比特币依然正常运行。

When the Fed stepped in in that pandemic and started gunning the money supply and bailing out in essence, the mortgage REITs and the other people are doing commercial paper and stuff like that, Bitcoin functioned fine.

比特币没有出现挤兑。

There was no run on Bitcoin.

它最初大幅下跌，但整个系统在没有美联储干预的情况下正常运作，每个人都成功收到了自己的比特币，价格也相应调整。

It went down a lot initially, but the system functioned without fed and without any interference and everybody got their Bitcoin and the price adjusted.

当比特币老用户和新用户意识到，未来将出现通货膨胀时，比特币价格便一飞冲天。

Then when the Bitcoiners and newer Bitcoiners realized, wait, we're going to have inflation down the road, Bitcoin went through the roof.

因此，我认为这正是一种保险机制，至少我是这么看待的。

So that I think is an insurance policy, the way I look at it.

威廉，你还说过一句话，对我产生了深远影响。

William You also said something that had a profound impact on me.

我记得我们上次讨论比特币时，你告诉我，大约在2014年到2015年，你刚开始对它产生兴趣，是因为你听到了文塞斯·卡萨雷斯的讲解，他当时说的正是你刚才提到的内容：如果你来自美国，拥有健全的法律体系、良好的金融治理、财产权和法治，

I think the last time or previous time we talked about Bitcoin, where you explained to me that back in about 2014, 2015, you first started to get fascinated by it, it was because you heard Wences Casares talking about it, and that he was explaining exactly what you were just saying, that if you came from The US where you had a functioning legal system and pretty good financial governance and property rights and the rule of law and all of that stuff.

那么要理解比特币为何如此有价值，实际上非常困难。

It was actually very hard to understand why this would be so valuable.

他来自阿根廷，有着完全不同的视角，这正好契合了我试图讨论的关于认知的问题。

And that he came from Argentina where he had a totally different perspective, which fits into what I'm trying to talk about in terms of perception.

你能谈谈他怎么说的吗？

Can you talk about what he said?

因为在我看来，这一点至关重要——他之所以看待事物不同，是因为他没有生活在奥马哈这样的地方。

Because that seems to me profoundly important, this idea that he just viewed things differently because he wasn't living in Omaha, for example.

是的。

Yeah.

他说他的家族在阿根廷已经生活了150年，但多次被政府摧毁——银行被国有化，存款被没收，通过通胀被洗劫一空。

Mean, what he said was his family had been in Argentina for one hundred and fifty years and had been wiped out multiple times by the government, nationalizing the banks and taking the bank accounts away, inflating them away through that.

事实上，有三件事：银行国有化、通货膨胀，我忘了第三件是什么。

And in fact, there were three different things, nationalizing the banks, inflation, I forget what the third one was.

但无论如何，他说，我们已经被摧毁了三十多次。

But in any case, the fact that he said, We've been wiped out thirty:thirty several times.

他说，但有了比特币，我们

And he said, But with Bitcoin, we

不能

can't

政府在某些时候直接没收了你们的资产，对吧？

The wipe government just seized your assets at certain points, right?

对。

Yeah.

他说，比特币不会被清除。

And he said, With Bitcoin, can't be wiped out.

政府无法从我们手中夺走它。

The government cannot take it away from us.

这可能就是我跟你们讲过的鲍勃·席勒的故事。

That's what I might have told you the story of Bob Schiller.

他去了哪儿？

He went to, where was it?

爱沙尼亚，我想是那里。

Estonia, I guess it was.

他当时在那里会见了商界人士。

And he met with the business people there.

他正前往达沃斯，准备参加一个关于比特币的小组讨论。

And he was on his way to Davos where he was going be a panel about Bitcoin.

因此，他很好奇自己见过的那些商界人士中，是否有人拥有比特币——当时他身处一个有上百人的房间，正在发表演讲。

So he was curious about if anybody of the business people that he had met, he was in a room with a 100 of them and giving a talk on whatever.

他问在场的人中有谁拥有比特币，结果每个人都举起了手。

And he asked if any of them owned Bitcoin and everybody raised their hand.

他说自己感到非常震惊，于是问他们为什么。

He said he was shocked and asked him why.

他说：‘因为二战后俄罗斯占领我们时，他们国有化了银行，没收了我们所有的钱——不是我们的钱，而是我们祖父和祖辈的钱。’

He said, Well, because when Russia took us over after World War II, what they did was they nationalized the banks and they stole all of our money, not our money, but our grandfather and grandfather's money.

如果你是普通公民，但如果你真的拥有企业，就会被送到西伯利亚。

If you're a regular citizen, but if you actually owned a business, you were sent to Siberia.

他说：‘我们就紧挨着俄罗斯。’

He said, We sit right up here against Russia.

他们可以再次这么做。

They can do that again.

他说，但这次他们拿不走我们的钱，因为我们拥有比特币，可以把它发送到任何地方。

And he said, But they can't take our money this time because we got Bitcoin and we can send it anywhere we want.

我认为这同样发生在维特根斯坦的父亲身上，他是世界上最富有的人之一。

Think that's what happened with also with Wittgenstein's father, who was one of the wealth iest people in the world.

他把钱投资在奥地利、美国、英国以及世界各地，因为他不相信奥地利政府不会窃取他的财富。

He had money invested outside of Austria, United States and England and everywhere, because he said he couldn't trust the Austrian government not to steal it.

当希特勒接管奥地利时，他们确实这么做了。

And then when Hitler took over Austria, he did.

基本上，他们没收了所有犹太人的财产，然后把他们送进了集中营。

Basically took all the money from everybody who was Jewish and then sent them to concentration camps.

维特根斯坦家族实际上获得了一项特别法令，因为他们把大量资金存在国外，并同意将其交给希特勒，所以没有被送进集中营。

The Wittgenstein family actually got some decree where they weren't sent to the concentration camps because they had all this money outside the country and they agreed to give it to Hitler.

他说：好吧，那我就只算你部分是犹太人，这样你们就能幸免于难。

And he said, Okay, well, I'll count you as only partially Jewish then and you'll be spared.

这就是比特币的一个特点。

So that's one of the things about Bitcoin.

黄金就不一样了。

That's not the case with gold.

你不可能背着一袋黄金试图穿越边境。

Can't carry gold around in sacks trying to get across the border.

这是比特币的另一个优势。

So that's another advantage that Bitcoin has.

富达最近发表了一篇关于比特币的优秀文章，富达数字资产。

Fidelity had one of the best pieces they wrote recently on Bitcoin, Fidelity Digital Assets.

他们提到的一个观点是，这是反对比特币的论点之一。

One of the points they made was that it was one the arguments against Bitcoin.

有一种看法是，斯坦·德鲁肯米勒曾经说过，而且现在还在说，总有人会发明出更好的东西。

One of the perceptions is that Stan Druckenmiller used to say it, and he still says but somebody is going to invent something better.

现在有成千上万种代币和加密货币，而且加密领域的技术总是在不断变化。

There's thousands of these tokens and coins out there and technology is always changing in crypto.

所以会有人发明出更好的东西。

So somebody's going to invent one that's better.

就像很多人认为以太坊比比特币更好一样。

Just like Ethereum was better than Bitcoin, according to many people.

索拉纳比以太坊更好。

Solana is better than Ethereum.

富达的人说：在我们看来，这种观点其实是错误的，因为比特币本质上就像轮子。

And the Fidelity people said, Well, that's actually wrong in our opinion, because basically Bitcoin is like the wheel.

轮子发明之后，没人需要重新发明它。

Nobody needed to reinvent the wheel after it was invented.

现在以太坊实际上是一种专门的实体。

Now Ethereum is actually a specialized type of entity.

它可能像是拖拉机用的轮子，或者是一种防爆轮胎，或者具备比特币没有的某些功能，但本质上它仍然是一个轮子。

It's maybe like a wheel for giant tractors, or it's maybe a wheel that's a run flat wheel, or it's got these things that Bitcoin doesn't have, but it's basically a wheel.

因此，比特币就是轮子，是完美的轮子。

And so that Bitcoin is the wheel, it's the perfect wheel.

因此，如果有人发明了更好的东西，我们就来做一个权益证明的比特币。

Therefore, if somebody invented something that did better, let's do a proof of stake Bitcoin.

好的。

Okay.

所以我现在要改用权益证明，而不是工作量证明来运行比特币协议。

So I'm going to do Bitcoin protocols, proof of stake now instead of proof of work.

因此，它消耗的能量将不到比特币的1%。

Therefore, it will only use less than 1% of the energy that Bitcoin uses.

反对比特币的一个主要论点是，它会造成气候灾难，耗电量与阿根廷相当，诸如此类。

One of the big arguments against Bitcoin is that it's climate catastrophe and uses as much energy as Argentina does, all this kind of stuff.

而权益证明——以太坊正是出于这个原因正在转向它——并不会造成这种问题。

And proof of stake, which Ethereum is changing to for that very reason, doesn't do that.

好的。

Okay.

那么，如果你发明了一种权益证明的比特币，会发生什么？

Well, if you then invent a proof of stake Bitcoin, what happens?

如果你拥有比特币，而它采用权益证明机制，你可能会因此购买一些比特币。

Well, if you would own Bitcoin, if it was proof of stake, you might buy some Bitcoin then.

但话说回来，既然你已经有了以太坊——它已经是权益证明机制，还能做比特币做不到的事情——你为什么还要买比特币呢？

But again, why would you buy Bitcoin when you already have Ethereum, which is proof of stake and it can do stuff Bitcoin can't do?

那么，你为什么要搞一个权益证明的比特币呢？

So why would you do the Bitcoin proof of stake?

另外，关于权益证明，人们经常讨论的一个大问题是美国的不平等问题。

The other thing is with proof of stake, one of the big problems that people talk about is a problem in United States is inequality.

权益证明本质上是你能想象到的最不平等的机制，因为富人掌握了一切决策权。

Proof of stake basically is the most unequal thing you can imagine because the rich people make all the decisions.

如果你持有的权益更多，也就是你拥有的以太坊比别人多，你就拥有更多的投票权。

If you have more stakes, if you have more Ethereum at stake, meaning you own more than somebody else, you get whatever the votes are.

这就像如果你拥有伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司50%的股份，你就能决定这家公司的一切事务。

It's like if you own worse shares in If you own 50% of shares of Berkshire Hathaway, you determine what's going happen with Berkshire Hathaway.

如果你拥有50%的以太坊，你就能决定它的走向，其他人无权置喙。

If you own 50% of the Ethereum, you decide what's going to happen with it, nobody else can say it.

比特币没有这个问题，它完全是民主的。

That's a problem that Bitcoin doesn't have, it's purely democratic.

所以当你思考沃伦和查理最近几周在奥马哈的评论时，这些人——我之前跟你说过，对吧？

So when you think about the comments that Warren and Charlie made in the last few weeks in Omaha, these guys are I mean, you've said to me before, right?

他们是真正的天才。

They're bona fide geniuses.

他们是非凡的投资者。

They're they're incredible investors.

他们非常深思熟虑。

They're incredibly thoughtful.

是否存在某种偏见、成见或盲点，使他们特别难以理解比特币？

Is there some sort of bias or prejudice or blind spot that makes it particularly difficult for them to understand Bitcoin?

是的。

Yes.

有好几个原因。

There's several.

我认为每个人都有这样或那样的盲点，而且他们容易出错。

I think everybody's got blind spots in one way or another, and they're they're error prone.

但其中一个显然是他们年纪大了，不习惯新事物。

But certainly one of them is that they are old, and they're not used to new things.

他们不是那种乐于接受新技术和不同做事方式的人。

They're not the type of people who embrace new technologies and different ways of doing things.

他们更看重经过验证的传统方法。

Look at the tried and true and tested.

他们也不愿意承担太多风险。

They also don't want to take a lot of risk.

巴菲特多次说过，他曾告诉我，他在保险业务中已经承担了足够的风险。

Buffett has said many times, heard him say to me that he's taken enough risk in the insurance business.

直到9·11事件发生前，他甚至没意识到自己承担了多大的风险。

And he didn't even realize how much risk he was taking until nineeleven.

天啊，如果我们把所有这些财产和意外险业务都撤掉，我都没想过这一点。

Uh-oh, if we get all this property casualty stuff out, didn't think about that.

所以这不仅仅关乎你的经验，因为我们之前从未经历过有人驾机撞入大楼的情况。

So it's not just what your experience is, because we had no experience with somebody flying into buildings before.

这还关乎你的风险敞口。

It's also your exposures.

因此，他不得不重新思考自己在这方面的风险敞口。

And so he had to rethink his sense of exposure there.

我认为我曾用过的一个类比非常贴切，那就是巴菲特、芒格以及所有传统的金融人士，和许多只看比特币并讨厌它的人一样。

I think the analogy that I've used on that one, which I think stands up well is that it's like the Buffett and Munger and all the traditional finance people and a lot of people who are just involved in looking at Bitcoin and hating it.

这就像福尔摩斯故事《银色马》中的情节，银色马是一匹著名的赛马，正准备参加一场重要比赛，结果却被人偷走了。

They're like the Sherlock Holmes story, Silver Blaze, where Silver Blaze was a famous racehorse and he was getting ready to run-in a big race, then he was stolen.

于是，苏格兰场当然介入了，但他们完全无法理解是谁偷走了这匹赛马。

And so Scotland Yard of course, has called in and they cannot understand how somebody stole this racehorse.

他们于是请来了福尔摩斯，问他：‘你能破解这个案子吗？’

And so they call Sherlock Holmes and they say, Can you figure this out?

福尔摩斯经过调查后说：‘当然可以。’

And so Sherlock Holmes does some investigation and he says, Yes.

他说，破解这个谜题的关键在于看门狗。

He says, The key to solving the mystery is the guard dogs.

探长说：‘看门狗？’

The inspector says, The guard dogs?

看门狗没有叫。

Well, the guard dogs didn't bark.

他说，这就是关键，因为看门狗认识小偷。

He said, That's the key because the guard dogs knew who the thief was.

由于它们认识他，所以放他过去了。

And because it was known to them, they let him go by.

所以，我说，所有抱怨或贬低加密货币和比特币的人，本质上都像是《银斑驹》故事里的侦探。

So the way that I say this is that all the people who are complaining or all the people who are dissing crypto and Bitcoin are effectively like the detective in Silver Blaze.

正如马克·安德森曾一针见血地指出——2017年巴菲特首次回避比特币时，他说：‘那些不懂技术的老白人贬低他们不理解的新技术，这种记录是百分之百的。’

And as Marc Andreessen memorably said, first time that Buffett ducked on, this is 2017, that Buffett ducked on Bitcoin, he said, The record of old white men who don't understand technology crapping on new technologies they don't understand is 100%.

当我听到马克这么说时，银斑驹的故事立刻浮现在我脑海中，因为我意识到：这里也有看门狗，它们对比特币却一声不吭。

Which then set me when I heard Mark say that, that silver blaze story jumped out at me because I said, there's guard dogs here that aren't barking about Bitcoin.

他们被称为风险资本家。

And they're called venture capitalists.

风险资本家的职责是评估新技术，判断哪些可能有价值，哪些没有。

Venture capitalists job is to assess new technologies and to decide which ones might be worthwhile and which ones aren't.

那里有一整套这样的生态体系。

And there's a whole ecology of them out there.

我从未听说过任何一个风险资本家贬低比特币技术。

There's not a single one of them that I ever heard dumping on the technology of Bitcoin.

他们可能没有早期投资，因为他们对它不确定，但他们绝对没有贬低它。

They might not have invested in it early because they weren't sure about it, but they certainly didn't dump on it.

而这种情况是，如今，无论是在国内还是全球，都没有一家知名的风险投资公司不涉足比特币。

And that's the case where, and now that there's certainly not a prominent venture firm in the country, if not in the world, that doesn't have exposure to Bitcoin.

事实上，许多大型公司，比如安德里森和波罗维茨，都设立了专门的加密货币基金。

In fact, many of them, the biggest ones like Andreessen and Porowitz, for example, all of them are doing their own dedicated crypto funds.

因此，去年有270亿美元投入了加密风险投资。

So last year it was $27,000,000,000 went into crypto venture investments.

这比比特币历史上所有时期累计的投资总额还要多。

That's more than the previous, all the history of Bitcoin combined did.

他们仅仅在一年内就做到了这一点。

They did that just in one year.

今年第一季度，投入比特币风险投资的资金是去年的五倍以上，而去年已是历史最高纪录。

Year in the first quarter, more five times as much money went into Bitcoin ventures as did it last year, which was the all time record.

资金正大量涌入这一领域，这再次表明了市场对这类事物的需求。

The money is pouring into this space, which again is a measure of what the demand is for these sorts of things.

因此我认为，你刚刚看到高盛刚刚完成了他们的首笔以比特币为抵押的贷款。

So I conclude, mean, you just saw Goldman just did their first loan, I believe, backed by Bitcoin.

我认为你会看到，高盛最初并没有兴趣——我几年前曾与佩特·布里格和一些其他人去拜访过高盛的管理团队，当时他们只是出于好奇。

I think that you're going to see, and Goldman wasn't, I've talked to Pete Brieger and I and some other people went to talk to the folks at Goldman, the management team there a couple of years ago, they had a curiosity, but no interest.

但现在他们对此产生了浓厚的兴趣，而富达从一开始就一直积极投入这一领域。

Now they have a high degree of interest and Fidelity has been thirty:fifty all over the stuff from the beginning.

让我们短暂休息一下，听听今天赞助商的广告。

Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors.

特雷，你知道是什么让最优秀的企业脱颖而出吗？

Trey You know what sets the best businesses apart?

正是他们如何利用创新将复杂性转化为增长。

It's how they leverage innovation to turn complexity into growth.

这正是亚马逊广告在AWS人工智能驱动下所做的事情。

That's exactly what Amazon ads is doing powered by AWS AI.

每天，亚马逊广告处理数十亿次实时决策，优化一个价值310亿美元的广告生态系统中的广告表现。

Every day, Amazon ads processes billions of real time decisions, optimizing ad performance across a $31,000,000,000 advertising ecosystem.

结果是，广告活动运行速度快了30%，并能大规模带来可衡量的业务影响。

The result is campaigns that run 30% faster and deliver measurable business impact at scale.

而这正是亚马逊自身实现增长的方式。

And this is how Amazon itself drives growth.

他们的智能AI将营销从一个资源密集型流程转变为一个智能自主系统，最大化投资回报率，并让营销人员专注于创意与战略。

Their agentic AI transforms marketing from a resource heavy process into an intelligent autonomous system that maximizes ROI and empowers marketers to focus on creativity and strategy.

亚马逊广告正在证明，人工智能驱动的广告不仅仅是未来，更是新的竞争优势。

Amazon Ads is proving that AI driven advertising isn't just the future, it's the new competitive advantage.

更棒的是，每一家企业都可以应用亚马逊内部完善的同一套创新方法论。

And better yet, every enterprise can apply the same innovation playbook that Amazon perfected in house.

访问 aws.comai/rstory 了解亚马逊广告的故事。

See the Amazon ad story at aws.comai/rstory.

那就是 aws.comairstory。

That's aws.comairstory.

初创公司行动迅速。

Startups move fast.

借助人工智能，它们交付产品更快，并更早吸引企业客户。

And with AI, they're shipping even faster and attracting enterprise buyers sooner.

但大单也带来了更大的安全和合规要求。

But big deals bring even bigger security and compliance requirements.

SOC 2 并不总是足够的。

A SOC two isn't always enough.

适当的安全措施可以促成交易，也可能导致交易失败。

The right kind of security can make a deal or break it.

但哪位创始人或工程师能抽出时间来建设公司呢？

But what founder or engineer can afford to take time away from building their company?

Vanta 的人工智能和自动化功能让企业在几天内就能准备好大单。

Vanta's AI and automation make it easy to get big deals ready in days.

Vanta 持续监控您的合规状况，确保未来的交易不会受阻。

And Vanta continuously monitors your compliance so future deals are never blocked.

此外，Vanta 会随着您的发展而扩展，并在每一步都提供及时的支持。

Plus Vanta scales with you, backed by support that's there when you need it every step of the way.

随着人工智能改变法规和买家的期望，Vanta 知道何时需要什么，并已构建了最快、最简便的路径来帮助您实现目标。

With AI changing regulations and buyers' expectations, Vanta knows what's needed and when, and they've built the fastest, easiest path to help you get there.

因此，认真的初创公司会早早通过 Vanta 实现安全合规。

That's why serious startups get secure early with Vanta.

我们的听众在 vanta.com/billionaires 可享受 1000 美元优惠。

Our listeners get $1,000 off at vanta.com/billionaires.

访问 vanta.com/billionaires，立减 1000 美元。

That's vanta.com/billionaires for $1,000 off.

新的一年到了，这是实现你一直梦想创业的最佳时机。

It's the new year, which means that it's the best time to finally start the business you've been dreaming about.

就在几年前，我启动了自己的电子商务业务，而Shopify正是我起步所需的完美工具。

Just a couple years ago, I launched my own e commerce business and Shopify was exactly the tool I needed to get started.

尽管许多人不断将梦想推迟到明年，但我在这里告诉你，现在就是抓住眼前机遇的时候。

While many people continually push off their dreams until the next year, I am here to tell you that now is the time to capitalize on the opportunities right in front of you.

Shopify为你提供了在线和线下销售所需的一切。

Shopify gives you everything you need to sell online and in person.

数百万创业者，包括我自己，都已经从普通家庭用户跃升为刚刚起步的生意人。

Millions of entrepreneurs, including myself, have already made this leap from household names to first time business owners just getting started.

你可以从数百个精美的模板中选择，并自定义它们，同时使用其内置的AI工具撰写产品描述或编辑产品图片。

Choose from hundreds of beautiful templates that you can customize and use their built in AI tools to write product descriptions or edit product photos.

随着你的成长，Shopify也会在每一步与你共同成长。

And as you grow, Shopify grows with you every step of the way.

在2026年，别再等待，立即用Shopify开始销售吧。

In 2026, stop waiting and start selling with Shopify.

立即注册每月1美元的试用版，今天就开始在shopify.com/wsb上销售。

Sign up for your $1 per month trial and start selling today at shopify.com/wsb.

前往shopify.com/wsb。

Go to shopify.com/wsb.

就是shopify.com/wsb。

That's shopify.com/wsb.

聆听你新的一年，有Shopify与你同行。

Hear your first This New Year with Shopify by your side.

好的。

Alright.

回到节目。

Back to the show.

当我让Twitter上的人们发送他们想让我问你的问题时，我感到非常惊讶。

When I asked people on Twitter to send questions that I could ask you, I I was pretty amazed.

我想我收到了超过一百个问题。

I think I got over a 100 questions.

正如你所料，其中很多都关于比特币。

And as you would imagine, a lot of them were about Bitcoin.

有些是侮辱性的，比如：这人到底在想什么？

Some of them insulting and were like, what is this guy thinking?

有一个人，鲍勃·弗林，我曾答应送他一本亲笔签名的《理查德·塞勒的更快乐》，以感谢他提出的问题，他说：你能问问比尔，有什么反证会让他改变对比特币的看法吗？

And one person, Bob Flynn, who I promised to send him a signed copy of Richard Wiser Happier to thank him for his question, said, Could you ask Bill, what disconfirming evidence would make you change your mind about Bitcoin?

我记得你之前跟我谈过供需动态的重要性。

I remember you talking to me before about the importance of the supply demand dynamic.

你能说说，需要发生什么变化，才会让你开始觉得：也许我在这里犯了错误？

Can you give a sense of what would have to change for you to start thinking, Maybe I made a mistake here.

也许我不该把一半净资产都押在上面，或者也许这是一次错误的押注。

Maybe I shouldn't have half my net worth in this, or maybe this was a bad bet.

什么样的反证会改变你的观点？

What disconfirming evidence would change your view?

我曾接受过帕内塔资本创始人丹·莫雷黑德的采访，帕内塔资本是比特币以及相关代币和风险投资领域最大、最重要的对冲基金和投资者之一。

I was interviewed by Dan Morehead, who's the founder of Pantera Capital, which is the biggest hedge fund and one of biggest investors in Bitcoin and the tokens and ventures out there.