RWH017：富达传奇人物乔尔·蒂林哈斯特

我认为配对流程太漫长、太官僚了，但像他这样的人应该给研究主管写信，比如富达的帕姆·霍尔丁和蒂姆·科恩。

Pairing process is too long and too bureaucratic for my taste, but it say someone like him should send a letter to both the director of research, which at Fidelity would be Pam Holding and Tim Cohen.

他们还应该给网站上公布的指定人力资源招聘人员发一封邮件。

And they should also send one to the designated human resources recruiter and that you can find on the website.

这确实很难，那些毕业于哈佛、耶鲁、普林斯顿和沃顿的人都是优秀的人才，但他们有内部优势，因为很多面试——我不太喜欢这种方式，是的。

It is tough, it's the people who attended Harvard, Yale and Princeton and Wharton are fabulous people, but they have the inside track on this because a lot of the interviews, I don't like the way this is Yeah.

但实际上，像他这样的人，以及所有其他在外面的人，都应该给目标公司研究主管或人力资源部门写信。

Handled actually, but I'd say a person like him and all the hers who are out there should send a letter to the director of research at a firm that they want or to the HR department there.

你多年来显然招聘过很多人，因此你肯定见过许多后来成为明星的年轻分析师。

And you've obviously done lots of hiring over the years, and so you've obviously sort of seen lots of the young analysts who become stars later.

我想知道，当你思考你寻找的是什么，以及彼得·林奇在你身上看到的是什么时，是不是那种强烈的专注、竞争意识，以及对股票那种近乎无法解释的深深着迷？

And I'm curious, when you think of what you look for and also what Peter Lynch saw in you, is it that kind of intensity, that competitiveness, that deep fascination with stocks that you almost can't explain?

你和他所寻找的那种‘关键特质’到底是什么？

What is it that you and he look for that's that X factor?

好奇心就是：为什么是这样？

Curiosity is like, why is this so?

我认为，太多错误都源于人类倾向于填补缺失的信息，并对所看到的事物做出过多假设。

I think so many mistakes come because of the human capability of filling in what's not there and assuming too much about what it is you're looking at.

因此，我认为好奇心是最重要的，而雇主通常希望找到真正渴望这份工作的人。

And so I'd say curiosity is number one and employers generally, they want people who really want the job.

就像，对一个人说‘我爱你’，多久说一次才算太多？

It's like, how often is too many times to tell someone I love you?

永远不会太多。

It's never too much.

雇主们也希望听到这句话。

And the employers want to hear it.

即使他们知道你想要这份工作，也要明确表达出来，让它真实可信。

Even if they know that you want the job, spell it out for them and make it real.

因为就我而言，这很容易，因为我曾有过令人失望的雇主，所以我非常渴望为我完全敬佩的人工作。

Because in my case, it was easy because having had a disappointing employer or two, I really wanted to work for people who I totally respected.

所以，如果你面试的是你真正非常想要的工作，就不要害羞。

So if you are interviewing with the job that you really, really want, don't be shy.

告诉他们。

Tell them.

在采访你和威尔·丹诺夫，还有多年前的杰夫·温尼克时，我深受触动，温尼克是你这一代的另一位巨擘，我认为你们三人都某种程度上受到彼得·林奇的指导，你们身上都有一种强烈的专注感。

I was very struck in interviewing you and Will Dannoff, and many years ago, Jeff Vinick, who is another of the giants of your generation, who were all, I think all three of you in some ways mentored by Peter Lynch, there's an intensity to all of you.

我记得威尔曾经对我说过：我只是更在意。

I remember Will saying to me at some point, I just care more.

我还记得他告诉我，他是如何在周五下午发现特斯拉的。

And there was a way I remember him saying to me that the way he found Tesla was on a Friday afternoon.

他当时说：为什么我们没有周四的傍晚呢？

He was like, Well, how come we don't have Thursday late afternoon.

他问：为什么过了下午4点半就什么都没有了？

He's like, How come there's not anything after 04:30?

于是他们去见了那家额外的公司。

And so they went to see this one extra company.

同样，杰夫·温尼克告诉我，他每天晚上陪完四个孩子（那时他有四个孩子）后，等孩子们睡了，还会再读好几个小时的书。

Likewise, Jeff Finnick told me that he would get back in the evening after hanging out with his, I think, four kids in those days and would then do several hours more reading after they went to bed.

这么说，当你回顾你在富达见过的最成功的投资者时，他们是不是都极其专注、极具竞争力、充满动力且充满热情的人？

Is that fair to say that when you look at the most successful investors you've seen in your cohort of Fidelity, they're just really intense, profoundly competitive, driven, passionate people.

是的。

Yeah.

我觉得这是必须的。

I think it's sort of required.

彼得从来都不怎么度假，对吧？

Peter never really took a vacation, right?

我的意思是，在他十四年的职业生涯中，他有没有休过一天假？

Mean, in his fourteen years, did he ever take a day off?

是的。

Yeah.

我认为他实际上比刚才提到的任何人都更专注，这也许正是他担任主动基金经理的年限较短的原因。

I'd say he was actually more intense than any of the people just referenced, which may be also why the years as a active fund manager were shorter.

所以这种状态很难持续。

So it's hard to sustain.

而且

And

这就是为什么彼得需要那个暗号来告诉卡罗琳他什么时候会到。

that was why Peter needed the secret code to tell Carolyn what time he would be at.

我想其中一个暗号是，约翰逊先生要来了，所以把食物放进烤箱里，因为他当然想和杰先生谈话。

I think one of them was actually, mister Johnson is coming in, so just put the food in the leave the food in the oven because, of course, he wanted to talk to mister Jay.

你曾经对我说过，彼得是你见过的最具灵活性的投资者，他拥有惊人的能力，能在短期交易和长期投资之间切换。

You said to me once that Peter was the most flexible investor you'd ever seen, that he had this incredible ability to switch between short term trading and long term trading.

你能谈谈这一点吗？

Can you talk a bit about that?

因为我觉得，由于他并没有待太久，对吧？

Because I think sometimes because he wasn't around for that long, right?

他担任了十三或十四年的主动基金经理，然后就辞职了。

He had a thirteen or fourteen year stint and then he quit.

人们总是会怀疑，或者说有种偏见，认为他真的有那么厉害吗？

There's always this suspicion that or sort of prejudice that, you know, was he really that great?

他能持续下去吗？

Would he have been able to sustain it?

你能谈谈是什么让他如此特别吗？

Can you talk about kind of what what it was that made him so special?

他总是对事物的工作原理感到好奇。

He was always curious about how things worked.

他当然希望投资那些当前正在迅速改善的公司，但他实际上也持有某些公司多年，比如克莱斯勒和房利美，还有一些其他公司，但他总是通过对话持续关注，指出：‘这将在明年帮助你。’

He did of course want companies that were getting much better right now, but there are companies that he held for several years actually, Chrysler and Fannie Mae, some others, but he was always checking in in the conversations if he would highlight, this will help you next year.

这将在未来几年帮助你，以房利美为例，它们在接下来的一年、再下一年以及之后的年份中，都有大量高成本债务即将到期。

This will help you in the years beyond where in Fannie Mae's case, they had a bunch of high cost debt that was rolling off in the coming year, but also in the next year and the next year after that.

因此，利息差和收益改善的前景非常可观。

So the visibility to improved interest margins and earnings was huge.

那么，你认为从与彼得共事中学到的最根本的东西是什么？

So what would be the most fundamental thing you think you took from working with Peter?

如果有一件事真正持久地影响了你管理资金的方式，那会是什么？

If there's one thing that's really had an enduring influence on the way you manage money, what would it be?

我不确定自己能否复制他的思维灵活性。

I'm not sure that I can copy his mental flexibility.

他完全愿意在事实发生变化时改变自己的想法。

He totally willing to change his mind when the facts are different.

我认为我们很多人固守自己的信念，试图为错误的东西辩护，还试图委婉地表达这一点。

And I think a lot of us get entrenched in our beliefs and try to defend something that's wrong and trying to delicately say this.

我在政治中看到很多这种情况，无论是哪个政党，他们错了却还不断为自己的错误添加更多借口。

I see a lot of this in politics in both parties where they're wrong and they pile on further justifications for mistakes that they made.

彼得不会容忍这种行为，或者至少不会太多。

Peter would have none of that or a little of that.

他会改变自己的想法。

He would change his mind.

他似乎还拥有非凡的能力，能够从大量不同的信息来源中提取信息并将其整合起来，这一点我也能看到你身上有。

He also seems to have had an incredible ability to take information from a mass of different sources and piece it together, which is something that I see with you as well.

因为我知道你在早年曾是一名分析师，研究过天然气、煤炭或其他各种东西。

Because I know that you, in your early years, you were an analyst studying natural gas or coal or all of these other things.

你的技能和他的一部分相似，就是能从经济的某个领域获取零散信息，并将其应用到其他领域。

It seems like part of your skill as well as his is to take little pieces of information from one area of the economy and apply it elsewhere.

是的。

Yes.

他作为一名天然气分析师时，确实经常这么做。

He absolutely did that as a natural gas analyst.

如果我告诉他天然气价格上涨了25美分，他会问：这对管道公司意味着什么？

If I got him the news that gas prices are up by 25¢, he would say, what's that mean for the pipelines?

这对天然气分销公司意味着什么？

What's that mean for the gas distribution companies?

这对生产商意味着什么？

What's that mean for the producers?

这对化工企业意味着什么？

What's that mean for the petrochemical companies?

这会引发一连串的连锁反应，虽然不一定有定论，但它能告诉你应该向这些公司提出哪些问题，而他在这方面非常出色。

And there's a whole bunch of knock on, it may not be conclusive, but it tells you what you should be asking all of those companies from one piece of information, and he was fantastic at that.

我记得比尔·米勒曾告诉我，他在成为基金经理之前，作为军方情报分析师的早期经历对此非常有帮助，因为那种方式是一种拼图式的思维——你会从某个领域获取看似微不足道的信息。

I remember Bill Miller saying to me that his early experience as an intelligence analyst in the military before he became a money manager was incredibly helpful precisely for that because you would have this mosaic approach where you would take information from one area, something that seemed minor.

但一旦你将它与其他几条信息结合起来，就能看到别人察觉不到的模式。

But once you combined it with a few other things, you could see a pattern that other people couldn't see.

我认为这是因为，当你做得不好时，这被称为轶事而非科学。

I think it is because people when you do it badly, it's called anecdotal and scientific.

当你做得好时，格拉德威尔会称之为薄片分析。

When you do it well, guess, Gladwell would call it thin slicing.

当我为我的书《乔：更富、更睿智、更快乐》在波士顿采访你时，我来问你，能否解释一下你那非凡的回报率，这真的令人难以置信。

When I interviewed you in Boston for my book, Joe, Richer, Wiser, Happier, I came and I asked you basically to explain your extraordinary returns, which are really incredible.

我的意思是，你真的是个异类，对吧？

I mean, you're a real anomaly, right?

我的意思是，我认为你过去三十二年每年跑赢市场约3.7个百分点。

Mean, I think you've beaten the market by about 3.7 percentage points a year over thirty two years.

这是一项惊人的业绩。

It's an astonishing performance.

我们对话中一个特别引人注目的地方是，你主要聚焦于列举所有那些查理·芒格所说的典型愚蠢行为——你努力避免的所有事情。

And one of the things that was really striking about our conversation was that you focused really primarily on listing all of the standard stupidities, as Charlie Munger would describe them, all of the things you try to avoid.

我不禁想，我们能否就此多聊一点？因为我觉得这种做法极其有益——毕竟，要模仿你、乔·丹诺夫或彼得·林奇这样的优秀投资者所具备的积极特质非常困难，但要应用你所坚持的这一原则却容易得多：至少识别出所有那些愚蠢、缺乏原创性的行为，正如查理所说，这些正是投资中导致灾难的根源。

And I wonder if we could talk about that a bit, because that strikes me as such an incredibly helpful approach to Because it's so difficult to imitate the positive qualities that someone like you or Will Danoff or Peter Lynch have, but it's much easier to apply this principle that you have of at least identifying all the dumb things, the unoriginal era, as Charlie would describe it, that leads to so much disaster in investing.

你能谈谈你具体避免了哪些事情吗？

Can you talk about some of the things that you just avoid?

因为你一直在不断接到分析师们向你推销各种投资标的，对吧？

Because you're constantly having analysts come and pitch you stuff, right?

你手下有一支由130名分析师组成的团队，不断向你推荐各种东西。

You have this army of 130 analysts pitching you stuff.

你都在说‘不，这个不做，那个也不做’。

What are you just saying, No, not doing that, not doing that.

这些都是我绝不会再犯的错误。

These are mistakes I'm not repeating.

我想你应该先反思一下，你认为自己的投资方法究竟是什么？

I think you wanna start by doing a little introspection about what do you think your approach is?

你为什么可能会有优势？

Why why might you have an edge?

如果你是个动量投资者，我确实见过很多成功的动量投资者，甚至可能比成功的价值投资者还多，但你应该明白这一点。

And if you're a momentum investor, I've seen actually lots of successful momentum investors, maybe even more than I've seen successful value investors, but you should know that.

当你身处2021年时，你必须意识到，那些曾经表现优异的科技股并没有变得更好。

And when you're in the 2021, you have to realize things are not getting better in the tech stocks that had worked so well.

你得思考一下：我是成长型投资者，还是价值型投资者，或者像我这样，是试图融入一些成长因素的价值型投资者——因为成长本就是价值的一部分，你必须理解这一点。

And you have to think about, am I a growth investor, am I a value investor or am I a, in my case, a value investor who tries to include some growth aspects to, because growth is part of value, have to understand that.

而你试图做的事情，会造就你的盲点。

And those what you're trying to do creates your blind spots.

因此，大多数时候，动量投资者最丰厚的利润来自股价高于公允价值、并出现大规模跟风买入的时候。

So most of the time, the fattest piece of the momentum profits of the momentum investor come when the stock is above fair value and it's just a colossal piling on.

所以价值投资者会说：快跑，快跑，赶紧逃离，但如果你是个有技巧的动量投资者，这个反应是错误的——你可能会想，这只股票现在才刚开始获得认可，会有更多人注意到它。

So a value investor says, run, run, run away, but that's the wrong impulse If you're trying to be a skilled momentum investor, you might say, it's just now getting recognition and more people will recognise this stock.

同时，作为价值投资者，我通常会忽略短期波动，除非出现某种迹象表明：天啊，这彻底推翻了我所有的预期价值。

At the same time, as a value investor, I kind of ignore short term movements, unless there's something that says, wow, this throws my whole expected value into the trash.

现在供应商不再给他们发货了，商店根本不可能再赚到我原先以为的那种利润。

There's no way the store will ever make the kind of profits I thought now that vendors are not shipping them merchandise.

所以我认为，一些盲点源于你的投资方法，你必须意识到这些盲点。

So I think some of the blind spots come from what your approach is and you have to be aware of those blind spots.

了解自己，以及你如何应对挫折？

Knowing yourself and how do you react to the setbacks?

你对自己诚实吗？

And are you truthful to yourself?

你会不断找借口，证明自己所做的一切并非错误吗？

Are you going to come up with endless justifications for why what you did was not a mistake?

还是你会坦诚面对，说：‘是的，我搞砸了？'

Or will you go to the confessional and say, yep, I blew it?

你提到的一句话让我印象深刻，乔尔，你说避开自己的无知能带来巨大改变。

You said something that really stuck with me, Joel, where you said staying away from your own ignorance can make a huge difference.

所以，这不仅仅是对自己情绪反应的自我认知。

So it's not just self awareness in terms of how you'll react emotionally.

了解

Knowing

你的能力圈，或者更乐观地说，你的专业领域——在哪个行业你比普通人懂得更多？

your circle of competence or I guess more optimistically, the circle of expertise where do you know more than the average guy about this industry?

你对这家特定公司了解得比普通人更多吗？

Do you know more than the average person about this specific company?

有些行业，比如保险，很难把握，因为它涉及一系列假设，你通常很难判断这些假设是保守的、激进的还是中性的，但当这些难以验证时，你就无法得到保护。

And there are whole industries where insurance is difficult because it's a whole series of assumptions and you can generically way know whether the assumptions that they're making are conservative, aggressive or average, but that doesn't protect you when that's hard to verify.

所以保险的某些部分让我感到害怕。

So there are parts of insurance that scare me.

我认为AIG就是一个例子，他们进入了自己都没意识到的另一个业务领域；如果他们审视这些衍生品，就会发现信用保险是一种低概率、高严重性、高度相关的业务。

And I think the AIG was a case where they had gotten into a different business than they realized where if they looked at the derivatives, they'd say credit insurance is a low rate online or a highly correlated, high severity, very low frequency business.

然后他们会意识到，这对保险公司来说相当可怕，而不是觉得这挺疯狂的。

And then, oh, that's kind of terrifying to an insurance company rather than this is kind of wild.

因为我投资AIG亏了钱，所以我心有不甘。

Since I lost money on AIG, I'm bitter.

所以我假设管理层可能没有这么做。

And so I'm assuming that management might have not done this.

生物技术让我生物学家父亲感到失望，因为这里有太多精彩的实验，而我很难判断创新的路径。

Biotech to my biologist dad's disappointment, because there's so much cool experimentation and there, it's so hard for me to tell the path of innovation.

有第一阶段、第二阶段、第三阶段，还有商业化。

There's phase one, there's phase two, there's phase three, there's commercialization.

即使有时药物获得批准并上市，销量仍可能令人失望，而预测这些可能性超出了我的能力。

And sometimes even if it does get approved and goes on the market, the sales will disappoint and handicapping those odds is beyond my ability.

某种程度上，知道你无法建模、无法真正估算未来的现金流和增长，似乎就足以让你避开这一领域。

In a way, knowing just that you can't model that, that you can't really figure out the cash flows and the growth in the future, that seems to be almost enough to keep you away from that.

但你也曾告诉我，这会让你情绪异常激动。

But you also said to me, you know it's gonna make you crazily emotional.

是的。

Yeah.

像富达的杰出分析师艾琳·坎托波利斯这样的人，我非常信任她，但作为投资组合经理，除非我能亲自验证她的想法，否则我无法这么做。

There are people like Fidelity's brilliant analyst, Irene Cantopolis, and I trust her a great deal, but as a portfolio manager, I can't do it unless I can verify her thoughts to myself.

所以这是一个我避而远之的领域。

And so it's an area that I stay away from.

你给我列了一堆东西。

You listed for me an array of things.

我喜欢你对我说的这句话，我在我的书里引用了：不要支付太多。

I I love this quote where you said to me, I quote this in my book, you said, don't pay too much.

不要投资那些容易过时和毁灭的企业。

Don't go for businesses that are prone to obsolescence and destruction.

不要和骗子与傻瓜一起投资。

Don't invest with crooks and idiots.

不要投资你不理解的东西。

Don't invest in things you don't understand.

不要投资你不懂的东西，远离自己的疯狂。

Don't invest in what you don't know and stay away from your own craziness.

我只是觉得这是一份很棒的清单，你知道，在我们开始思考该做什么之前，先有一份明确的清单，告诉我们哪些地方我绝对不去。

And I I just thought that was a wonderful list of things where, you know, you before we start thinking about what we should do, just to have a list of things where we know I'm just not going there.

这不是我能赢的游戏。

It's not a game I can win.

是的。

Yeah.

你怎么能赢过乔丹？

How do you beat Jordan?

你该跟他下棋，而不是打篮球。

You play chess against him rather than basketball.

我最近经常思考这个问题。

I actually think about this a lot recently.

自从我写了关于你和查理·芒格的那一章，标题是《别当傻瓜》之后，我思考得更多了，我开始意识到玩那些我有能力赢的游戏有多么重要。

I think much more since I I wrote the chapter about you and Charlie Munger about just It's called Don't Be a Fool, where I just think about the importance of playing games that I'm equipped to win.

我渐渐意识到，有些游戏——在情感上、智力上，以及在热情方面——我根本不可能在挑选个股这件事上真正获胜。

It's been kind of a crushing realization that there are certain games where emotionally and intellectually and in terms of my passion, I'm just never gonna really win at the game of picking individual stocks.

这根本不适合我。

It just doesn't suit me.

能够意识到我应该去采访别人，这让我感到无比清晰和解脱。

And it's been incredibly clarifying and liberating to say, well, so, yeah, so I should be interviewing people.

我应该写书，但承认自己不适合玩某种游戏，这确实有点痛苦。

I should be writing books and I should It's just But it's it's kind of painful to admit that you're not suited to a game.

确实如此。

It is.

这尤其困难，因为那些职业玩这个游戏的人，大多毕业于顶尖学校，他们知道自己能学会，但尽管我多年断断续续地努力，我还是搞不懂生物科技。

And it's especially tough because the people who professionally pay play the game disproportionately went to selective schools and they know that they can learn, but despite years of intermittent effort, I still don't get biotech.

很难对自己说：是的，我确实有很多不擅长的事情。

And it's kind of hard to tell yourself, yeah, there are plenty of things that I'm not particularly good at.

我记得查克·阿克曾对我说过：我们不可能和所有女士跳舞。

I remember Chuck Acre saying to me, we we can't dance with all the ladies.

我突然意识到，哦，他有一个非常狭窄的池塘，他就在那里钓鱼，并且有纪律一次又一次地坚持下去。

And I I just suddenly realized, oh, he's got this, like, really narrow pond in which he's fishing and he has the discipline to do it again and again and again.

所以，是的，这种自我认知以及选择正确游戏的能力，对我来说至关重要。

So yeah, that self awareness and the ability to choose the right game seems to me critical.

但像卡特雷这样的人还有一个非常显著的特点，就是他非常专注，对吧？

But what's also really distinctive with someone like Katkray, he's very focused, right?

他的投资组合非常集中，只有少数几只重仓股。

He has a very narrow portfolio of a few major holdings.

你在这一点上非常不同，你极度分散投资，甚至比我认识的其他任何伟大投资者都更分散。

You're really unusual in the you're massively diversified or almost more than any other great investor I know.

我前几天看富达低价股时，记得你持有了大约八十只股票。

I think when I looked at Fidelity low price stock a couple of days ago, I think you owned something like eight eighty stocks.

这种策略背后的哲学是什么？

What's the philosophy behind that?

因为要实现你所做到的成就几乎是不可能的。

Because it's almost impossible to pull off what you've pulled off.

我记得比尔·鲁安曾经对我说过，我所遇到的唯一一个能通过极度分散的投资组合取得卓越业绩的投资者就是彼得·林奇。

It's like the only I remember Bill Rouhain saying to me once, the only other investor I've ever come across who can do really well with a hugely diversified portfolio is Peter Lynch.

而你似乎是第二个。

And you seem to be the second one.

那么你是怎么做到的？为什么选择这种方式？

So how do you do it and why do you do it that way?

把它看作两个投资组合。

Think of it as two portfolios.

其中一个，虽然可能更多，但可以看作是两个投资组合。

One, although it could be more, but think of it as two portfolios.

其中一个是由长期高信心的持仓组成。

One of them is for long standing high conviction holdings.

我确实有一些相当大的持仓。

I do have some fairly chunky holdings.

联合健康保险占基金的比重超过5%。

UnitedHealth is over 5% of the fund.

加拿大超市Metro紧随其后。

Metro, the Canadian supermarket is close behind.

AutoZone也是一个非常重要的持仓。

AutoZone is also a very substantial holding.

如果你只看前50或100只股票，你可能会说，这实际上是一个相当集中的基金，甚至相对于富达来说也是如此。

If you took just the top 50 or 100 stocks, you might say this is actually fairly concentrated fund, even relative to Fidelity.

我和摩根、萨姆一直讨论的一个问题是

And one of the ongoing discussions that had with Morgan and Sam is

这些是你成功的两个例子，那些不

These are your two successes that people who don't

两个成功案例。

two successes.

是的。

Yeah.

什么对他们有用，因为他们希望基金能为他们带来收益，而我认为他们仍在摸索适合自己的方式。

What will work for them because they want the fund to work for them, and I think they're still figuring out what works for them.

但有一点暗示，5%可能过于集中了，因为实际上还有其他富达基金没有任何5%的重仓股，尽管威尔蒂亚诺夫有几只。

But there was a hint that maybe 5% was too chunky because actually there are other Fidelity funds that do not have any 5% bets although Wiltianov has several.

因此，从某种意义上说，他们确实有集中押注，而且这种集中体现在基金持有加拿大超市Metro 10%的股份，这已经达到了监管允许的最大集中度。

And so in a sense, they do have concentrated bets and there are concentrated bets in the sense that the fund holds 10% of Metro Canadian supermarket, which is as large and as concentrated as the regulations allow.

让我们短暂休息一下，听听今天赞助商的声音。

Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors.

你知道是什么让最优秀的企业脱颖而出吗？

You know what sets the best businesses apart?

是他们如何利用创新将复杂性转化为增长。

It's how they leverage innovation to turn complexity into growth.

这正是亚马逊广告在做的，由AWS人工智能驱动。

That's exactly what Amazon Ads is doing, powered by AWS AI.

每天，亚马逊广告处理数十亿次实时决策，优化整个310亿美元广告生态系统的广告效果。

Every day, Amazon Ads processes billions of real time decisions, optimizing ad performance across a $31,000,000,000 advertising ecosystem.

结果是广告活动运行速度快了30%，并在大规模上带来可衡量的业务影响。

The result is campaigns that run 30% faster and deliver measurable business impact at scale.

这正是亚马逊自身推动增长的方式。

And this is how Amazon itself drives growth.

他们的智能AI将营销从资源密集型流程转变为智能自主系统，最大化投资回报率，并赋能营销人员专注于创意和战略。

Their agentic AI transforms marketing from a resource heavy process into an intelligent autonomous system that maximizes ROI and empowers marketers to focus on creativity and strategy.

亚马逊广告正在证明，人工智能驱动的广告不仅仅是未来，更是新的竞争优势。

Amazon Ads is proving that AI driven advertising isn't just the future, it's the new competitive advantage.

更棒的是，每一家企业都可以应用亚马逊内部完善的同一套创新方法论。

And better yet, every enterprise can apply the same innovation playbook that Amazon perfected in house.

前往 aws.comai/rstory 了解亚马逊广告的故事。

See the Amazon ad story at aws.comai/rstory.

网址是 aws.com/ai/rstory。

That's aws.com/ai/rstory.

初创公司行动迅速。

Startups move fast.

借助人工智能，它们交付速度更快，并更早吸引企业客户。

And with AI, they're shipping even faster and attracting enterprise buyers sooner.

但大单带来了更大的安全与合规要求。

But big deals bring even bigger security and compliance requirements.

SOC 2 并不总是足够。

A SOC two isn't always enough.

正确的安全措施可以促成交易，也可能导致交易失败。

The right kind of security can make a deal or break it.

但哪位创始人或工程师能抽时间离开公司建设去处理这些事呢？

But what founder or engineer can afford to take time away from building their company?

Vanta 的人工智能和自动化功能能让您在几天内准备好大单所需的一切。

Vanta's AI and automation make it easy to get big deals ready in days.

Vanta 持续监控您的合规状态，确保未来的交易不会被阻拦。

And Vanta continuously monitors your compliance so future deals are never blocked.

此外，Vanta 会随着您的业务成长而扩展，并在每一步都提供及时的支持。

Plus Vanta scales with you, backed by support that's there when you need it every step of the way.

随着人工智能改变法规和买家的期望，Vanta 深知所需内容和时机，并已构建出最快、最简便的路径帮助您达成目标。

With AI changing regulations and buyers' expectations, Vanta knows what's needed and when, and they've built the fastest, easiest path to help you get there.

因此，认真的初创公司都会尽早通过 Vanta 实现安全合规。

That's why serious startups get secure early with Vanta.

我们的听众可通过 vanta.com/billionaires 获得 1000 美元优惠。

Our listeners get $1,000 off at vanta.com/billionaires.

访问 vanta.com/billionaires 可享受 1000 美元优惠。

That's vanta.com/billionaires for $1,000 off.

新的一年到了，这是终于开始实现你梦想中事业的最佳时机。

It's the new year, which means that it's the best time to finally start the business you've been dreaming about.

就在几年前，我启动了自己的电子商务业务，而 Shopify 正是我起步所需的完美工具。

Just a couple years ago, I launched my own e commerce business and Shopify was exactly the tool I needed to get started.

尽管许多人不断推迟梦想，等待明年再行动，但我在这里告诉你，现在就是抓住眼前机遇的时候。

While many people continually push off their dreams until the next year, I am here to tell you that now is the time to capitalize on the opportunities right in front of you.

Shopify 为你提供了在线和线下销售所需的一切。

Shopify gives you everything you need to sell online and in person.

数百万创业者，包括我自己，都已经从普通家庭用户转型为刚刚起步的创业者。

Millions of entrepreneurs, including myself, have already made this leap from household names to first time business owners just getting started.

你可以从数百个精美的模板中选择，并使用其内置的 AI 工具撰写产品描述或编辑产品图片。

Choose from hundreds of beautiful templates that you can customize and use their built in AI tools to write product descriptions or edit product photos.

随着你的成长，Shopify 也将一路相伴，助你稳步前行。

And as you grow, Shopify grows with you every step of the way.

在2026年，别再等待，立即用Shopify开始销售。

In 2026, stop waiting and start selling with Shopify.

注册每月1美元的试用版，今天就开始在shopify.com/wsb销售。

Sign up for your $1 per month trial and start selling today at shopify.com/wsb.

前往shopify.com/wsb。

Go to shopify.com/wsb.

那就是shopify.com/wsb。

That's shopify.com/wsb.

在今年初，让Shopify陪伴你聆听第一声新年的号角。

Hear your first This new year with Shopify by your side.

好了，回到节目。

All right, back to the show.

你觉得

Do you think

这在某种程度上是你对早年因杠杆投资惹上麻烦、因过于激进而经历亏损痛苦的内心反应，对吗，乔？

this is partly a reaction, Joe, that you internalized in some ways those early lessons from when you got in trouble investing on margin and you went through the horror of losing money with too aggressive a stance.

有什么是

Is there something is that

所以我们还没谈到另外800家公司。

So so we we didn't get to the other 800 companies.

虽然有些可能得算三个，因为其中一些只占基金的25个基点，但占公司10%的股份。

Although some, it might have to be three because some of those are 25 basis points of the fund, but 10% of the company.

所以它们是小型公司的集中持仓，有些人说这太小了，根本无关紧要，但我们还是坚持去做，因为我们认为这些小型公司非常出色。基金在流通股中确实持有相对集中的仓位，但还有大量公司，我们看到它们有一些有趣的现象——要么是潜在的优秀企业，要么是严重错配的估值，于是我不断恳求分析师告诉我更多信息，恳求券商研究员提供见解，并试图向这些公司传递信号，希望他们能主动联系我，告诉我更多情况。

So they're concentrated holdings of a small company and on that there are people who say it's too small to make a difference, but do it anyway and think we're terrific companies that are small, the fund does have a concentrated relative to the outstanding shares holding, but then there's the large amount of companies where they see something interesting going on, see either a possibly terrific business or a really dislocated valuation where I'm begging the analysts to tell me more and begging brokerage researchers to tell me more and trying to signal to the companies, reach out to me and tell me more.

当我获得更多有用信息时，我就会加仓——比如，这是一个有进入壁垒的行业，拥有顶尖的管理团队，或者市盈率只有8倍、无负债且盈利在增长，这些都是我需要进一步了解的信息。

And I add to those when I do get more and it's good more, the here's an industry with barriers to entry, there's really top notch management team or it's eight times earnings, debt free and earnings are growing where it is a request for information.

顾问们绝对讨厌这样，因为按照规矩，你应该迅速做出高信心的判断。

Consultants absolutely hate that because you are supposed to leap to high conviction.

我仍在努力学习，热切地寻找一本关于‘不该做什么’的书，该忽略哪些信号，哪些机会值得把握。

I am still trying to learn and I'm eagerly looking for a book on what not to do, what signals do you ignore, what opportunities.

我觉得像巴菲特这样的人很厉害，两分钟内就能说‘不，没兴趣’。

I think people like Buffett are great at saying, nope, not interested after two minutes.

彼得也具备这种能力，尽管他的结论有时和我的一样，那就是我想关注这个领域，寻找更多信息。

Peter also had that capability, although his conclusion was I think sometimes like mine that it puts into the, I want to watch this space and find more.

汤姆·盖纳的做法类似，他采取了一种折中的方式，既适度分散又有所集中，他可能持有大约一百到一百一十只股票，并且喜欢这些股票都在他的投资组合中。

Tom Gaynor does something similar where he has a kind of middle way approach where he's somewhat diversified and somewhat concentrated, and he looks at, he might have a hundred, hundred and ten stocks, and he likes the fact that they're in his portfolio.

他可以专注于深入了解它们，但它们更像是预备队。

He can concentrate on finding more about them, but they're sort of the farm team.

听起来听起来——但

And it sounds it sounds- But

还有更多真实的情况。

there's more that's true.

它们是隔离观察的对象，但也是一组对比标的，比如当我研究美国银行时，会想：哪些是更优秀的银行？

They are the quarantine, but it's also a set of comparators where if I'm looking at US banks and say, well, what are superior banks?

并列出几十家，然后在心里进行比较，比如马里兰州的鹰银行和加利福尼亚州的东亚银行相比如何？

And have a list of a couple dozen of them and can mentally compare and say, Eagle Bank of Maryland, how does that compare with East West Bank of California?

然后再将它们与科特鲁斯山谷银行比较，接着再和爱荷华州的西岸银行比较。

And then let's compare that with Cotereus Valley Bank and then let's compare that with West Bank in Iowa.

让我们来比较一下。

Let's compare them.

其中一部分是为了反过来提供比较，但在富国银行开始出现合规和过度销售问题之前，我的做法是，我买入的任何银行都必须和富国银行一样好，其净资产收益率和增长前景必须不低于富国银行。

Some of it is to give a comparison the other way, but before Wells Fargo started to have their issues with compliance and overselling, my approach might be any bank that I buy has to be as good as Wells Fargo needs to have a return on equity and growth prospects that are higher or the same as Wells Fargo.

而且有些银行的市净率或市盈率必须低于富国银行。

And some of it has to be selling at a lower price to book or PE than Wells Fargo.

所以有时候你可以用一只基准股票，但当我观察小型医疗保健股时，说所有股票都必须和联合健康一样好，这很难做到。

So sometimes you can have a benchmark stock, but it's hard if I look at small cap healthcare and say, everything has to be as good as UnitedHealth.

有些公司的表现和联合健康一样好，但价格贵得多。

There are companies that are as good as UnitedHealth, but they're much more expensive.

有些公司的价格比联合健康便宜，但质量不如它。

There are companies that are less expensive than UnitedHealth, but they're not as good.

所以有时候拥有一只基准股票会有帮助，但必须谨慎对待。

So it sometimes helps to have a sort of benchmark stock, but that has to be taken.

我想这会导向一个更集中的投资组合，因为有些人可能会说，这传递了一个信息：在小型医疗保健领域，如果接受22倍左右的市盈率是合理的，那就没有哪家公司能和联合健康相媲美。

And I guess that would lead towards a more concentrated portfolio because some might say that's a, there's a message in there that there's nothing in small cap healthcare that is as good if you accept that the PE of 22 or whatever is acceptable.

你最成功的投资之一就是那个，我觉得其中一个

One of your most successful investments of all time is something where I think that one

但在我们离开这个话题之前

But before we leave that

是的。

Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

你读过任何关于如何说不的好书吗？

Have have you read any books that are any good on what to say no to?

我的意思是，我看过一些书，它们正确地指出放弃不需要的东西是好事，但我自己却很难做到，也想找一些关于该拒绝什么、该抓住什么机会的指导。

I mean, I've seen books that correctly say it's a good thing to drop what you don't need, but I suck at doing it and looking for guidance on what not to do and what opportunities to do.

因为诱惑总是想把所有女孩都亲一遍。

Because the temptation is let's kiss all the girls.

是的。

Yeah.

这正是我书中一个核心主题，不仅在你和查理那一章中，我说过不要做傻瓜。

And it's a this is a very central theme of my book, not only in the chapter about you and Charlie, where I'm saying don't be a fool.

比如，这里列出了所有需要避免的事情。

Like, here are all the things to avoid.

但我也在关于高效习惯的章节中提到了我所谓的‘减法艺术’，即我认为所有顶尖投资者都具备的一种习惯——明确哪些事情我不会做。

But also, I write in the chapter about high performance habits about what I call the art of subtraction, which is just the habit that I think all of the best investors have of saying, these are just things I'm not gonna do.

我几乎就像拥有一份‘不做清单’。

I'm gonna It's almost like having a not to do list.

我记得曾和来自《华尔街日报》的朋友杰森·茨威格讨论过这一点，他说当他观察像沃伦·巴菲特、查理·芒格、比尔·米勒这样的人时，他们都具备一种非凡的能力：承认自己并不擅长某件事，也不真正关心它，因此会疯狂地专注于其他事情。

And I remember talking to my friend Jason Zweig about this from the Wall Street Journal and him saying that when he looks at people like Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, Bill Miller, they all have this incredible ability to say, I'm not particularly good at this thing and it's not what I really care about and I'm just going to be maniacal about focusing only on other things.

因此，我认为这种简单地说‘不’的想法蕴含着深刻而实用的智慧。

And so I think there's deep wisdom and deep practical wisdom in this idea of just saying no to things.

而沃伦正是以这一点闻名，对吧？

And it's something Warren does famously, right?

我的意思是，沃伦说过，成功人士与非常成功人士的区别在于，非常成功的人几乎对所有事情都说‘不’。

I mean, Warren says the difference between successful people and very successful people is that the very successful people say no to almost everything.

我，是的。

I Yeah.

我的意思是，这显然是我在书中深入探讨的一个主题，但我还没见过哪本书能把这个主题做得特别出色。

I mean, it's clearly a theme that I explore a lot in the book, but I haven't seen one book that does it brilliantly.

所以，是的，但也许我只是读得不够多。

So yeah, But maybe I just haven't read enough.

威廉，请如果你或你的任何听众发现了什么，请立即联系我——

William Please contact me immediately if you or any of your listeners come up with something because-

是的。

Yeah.

但你的书在这方面也做得非常好。

But your book is also very good at that.

我的意思是，你的书很好地指出了在分析公司时需要注意的那些警示信号。

I mean, your book does a great job at saying these are the red flags when you look at companies.

意思是，不要去看那些脚注太多、会计处理模糊、披露内容繁多却令人费解的公司。

Mean, don't look at companies that have too many footnotes and opaque accounting and disclosure that's extensive but incomprehensible.

不要投资于俄罗斯这样的国家，那里法治不足，也不要投资于高通胀国家如土耳其。

Don't invest in countries like Russia, where there's not enough rule of law or countries with high inflation like Turkey.

我的意思是，我认为你的书在识别许多不该做的事情方面非常出色。

I mean, you're very good, I think, in that book at identifying a lot of the things not to do.

但某种程度上，我在阅读你的书以及多年来聆听或阅读你各种访谈时，不得不从书的不同部分和访谈中收集这些内容，然后整理出一份不该做的事情清单。

But in a way, what I had to do in reading your book and also in listening to or reading various interviews with you over the years, you have to gather these things from different parts of the books and interviews and kind of compile a list of things not to do.

同样地，从查理的24种人类误判原因清单来看，我认为他其实只读过三本心理学书籍，但他以一种非常聪明的方式将它们整合起来，指出：这些是我不会去做的事。

And likewise from Charlie's list of 24 causes of human misjudgment, he was really I think he'd only read three psychology books, but he was compiling them in this very intelligent way of saying, This is what I'm not going to do.

这些就是人们犯错的方式。

These are the ways in which people screw up.

所以我认为，某种程度上，你必须自己去做这项工作。

So I do think you have to kind of do the work yourself in a way.

我还没见过任何地方把这些内容方便地整理出来。

I haven't seen it really conveniently arrayed anywhere.

我想回到你那次惊人的投资——怪物饮料公司，我记得你最初投资时它还叫汉森公司。

I wanted to go back to this amazing investment of yours, Monster Beverage, which I guess originally was Hanson when you first invested in it.

我记得当时采访你时，你说你的成本价是8美分。

And I remember interviewing you about it and you saying basically that your cost basis was 8¢.

我昨天查了一下，股价已经涨到97美元了。我知道它经过多次拆股，但至少涨了一千倍。

I checked this yesterday and it was at $97 I know it's had lots splits and the like, but it was up at least a thousand fold.

你能谈一谈吗？我知道你一直很谦虚，说只是碰巧投资了它，因为你其实喜欢果味饮料，而不是能量饮料。

Can you talk a little bit I mean, I know you've been modest about this and have sort of said you lucked into investing in it because really you love the fruit drinks, not the energy drink.

但这项投资中蕴含的教训，你已经思考了二十多年。

But there are lessons from this investment that you've had really for over twenty years, think.

我们能从你这项巨大的长期持仓成功中吸取什么教训？它涨了至少一千倍以上。

What should we be learning from this enormous success of this massive long term holding of yours that's gone up a thousand fold or more?

伟大的成功往往连受益者自己都始料未及。

Great successes are often a complete surprise even to their beneficiaries.

不要低估运气的作用，但当时的情况对我非常有利——我恰好在一家美国电子协会的饮料服务展会上遇到了它。

Don't sell luck short, but the odds were very much in my favor in that weirdly met them at an American Electronics Association beverage service.

当时这只股票的市盈率大约是10倍。

And the stock was selling for, I think 10 times earnings.

我认为它是无负债的。

I think it was debt free.

收益在增长。

The earnings were growing.

我喜欢这些产品，而且非常欣赏管理层，因为他们看起来非常专注。

I liked the products and really, really liked the management because they seemed very intense.

他们好像自己喝过两三次 Monster 饮料，但他们的战略性和积极性真的很强。

Like they'd had two or three Monster beverages themselves, but they really seemed strategic and motivated.

由于没有债务，它不会破产。

It wasn't going to go bankrupt because they had no debt.

水果饮料，这并不太受经济周期影响。

Fruit drinks, like that's not very economically cyclical.

它不会被周期性波动拖垮。

It's not gonna get waylaid by cycles.

市盈率10倍，完全没问题。

10 times earnings, totally fine.

这是10倍的收益收益率。

That's a 10 earnings yield.

所以，从某种意义上说，事情向好的方向发展的可能性远大于向坏的方向发展的可能性。

So So there was a lot more that could go right than wrong in a way.

是的。

Yeah.

看起来犯一般性错误的可能性很小。

It seemed like the general ways to screw up were minimal.

我只是看不出他们怎么会出错。

I just didn't see how they were going to screw up.

但你是怎么持有这么多年的？

But how did you hold it for so many years?

我的意思是，你已经持有它二十多年了，而它的价格涨了一千倍。

I mean, you've you've held it for, what, twenty plus years already while it's gone up a thousand fold.

能做到这一点，似乎几乎不像是人能办到的。

That seems almost inhuman to be able to do that.

是什么让你在心态或智力上能够做到这一点？

What enabled you to do that temperamentally or intellectually?

我想，大约四五年后，每股收益就超过了成本基础。

I think it was about four years or five years later, the earnings per share were higher than the cost basis.

这正是我试图向分析师们强调的一点。

And this is something that tried to push on analysts.

我真正想要的是五年后盈利的低市盈率，那时你想象的是一个可持续的世界。

What I really want is a low PE on earnings five years out, where you're imagining a sustainable world.

这并不是关于航运周期。

It's not so much shipping cycles.

天啊。

Oh my god.

它们可能规模巨大，然后就崩盘了。

They could be huge and then they go bust.

所以这不是我所关注的。

So that's not what I'm looking for.

我寻找的是利润的大幅增长，而当我20岁的时候，我可能更喜欢大口喝猛饮，而不是把无糖饮料倒进可乐里——这正是我当年做的，所以没错，我可能当时更想要那种增长。

I'm looking for a huge growth in earnings and having had the growth in earnings and realized that, when I was 20, I probably would have liked to monster drink a lot better than dropping no dos into a Coca Cola, which is what I did, then yeah, I probably would have wanted that.

而且，虽然市盈率更高了，但利润却高得多得多。

And it's still, the multiple was higher, but the earnings were much, much higher.

它们的管理团队依然出色。

They still had the same terrific management.

它们依然没有债务。

They still didn't have debt.

那还有什么好担心的呢？

So what could go wrong?

嗯，增长可能会停止，但消费品公司的惯性比科技产品或女性时尚产品更强，而后者——令人烦恼的是——几乎没有任何惯性，至少我买的那些股票是这样。

Well, the growth could stop, but consumer products, companies have more inertia than technology products or ladies fashions, which annoyingly have almost no inertia, at least the stocks that I buy.

我向分析师展示的一种方式是，取一些巴菲特的惊人赢家，看看它们的初始市盈率和五年后的市盈率分别是多少。

One way that I presented it for the analysts was to take some of the amazing Buffett winners and said, what was the PE entry and what was the PE five years later?

结果发现，GEICO五年后的市盈率只有1倍，富国银行也是个位数。

And it was like, GEICO was like one times earnings five years later, Wells Fargo also a single digit.

即使是可口可乐，五年后的市盈率也相当温和。

Even Coca Cola was a fairly modest multiple five years out.

这样一来，就回到了你在价值线公司时所做的工作，我记得那时有三到五年的预测。

So in a way that goes back to what you were doing at Value Line where there were these three to five year, if I remember rightly, projections.

这某种程度上是在训练你放眼更远，去判断什么是合理的估值。

In a way it was training you to look further out to see what was a justifiable valuation.

这样说公平吗？

Is that fair to say?

是的。

Yeah.

但也要说，能够自信地展望五年或十年的公司非常罕见，除非你是凯茜·伍德，而她的名单也不算长。

But also saying the companies where you can look five years out or ten years out with confidence are rare unless you're Cathie Wood, and even her list is not that long.

所以我想你不会不同意，自信地展望五年或十年是困难的，而持有那些至少能有一定把握的公司则更容易。

So So I think you won't disagree that looking out five or ten years with confidence is is difficult, and it's easier to hold on to companies where you can look with at least some confidence.

我想问你一点关于投资的情感层面的问题，因为你在书中说过一句非凡的话：你愿意深入挖掘，并承受伴随卓越回报而来的痛苦、孤独和忧虑吗？

I wanted to ask you a little bit about the emotional aspect of investing because you said this extraordinary thing in your book where you wrote, are you willing to do the digging and endure the pain, loneliness, and worry that go with superior returns.

我在思考如何应对这种痛苦的问题。

And I was thinking about this question of how to handle the pain.

我知道，例如，在最近结束的这场疯狂牛市期间，资产正大量流出富达低价股票基金。

I know, for example, that there was a period during this crazy bull market that ended recently where assets were kind of flooding out of the Fidelity low price stock fund.

想想2020年，该基金规模从大约330亿美元——一个庞大的基金——下降到可能只有200亿美元。

Think in the 2020, it went from something like 33,000,000,000, which is an enormous fund, to maybe 20,000,000,000.

你可以看到人们非理性地行动，匆忙押注于疯狂的股票。

And so you could see people acting irrationally and being hasty and betting on crazy stocks.

而你却在那里保持耐心、谨慎、着眼长期、坚持价值投资。

And you're there just being patient and prudent and long term and value oriented.

我只是想知道，你如何忍受那些伴随卓越回报而来的痛苦、孤独与忧虑？

And I'm just wondering, how do you endure the pain, loneliness, and worry that go with superior returns?

对于价值投资者来说，熊市的打击并不那么严重。

For value investors, bear markets are not as punishing.

为什么会这样？

Why is that?

这是因为如果你真的认为一只股票的内在价值是50美元，而它的价格从40美元跌到了20美元，那就会觉得这太有吸引力了，这只股票一定会反弹。

It's because if you really thought that the intrinsic value of a stock was $50 and it's dropped from $40 to $20 it's like, this is so compelling, the stock will work.

在一场狂热且略带投机性的牛市中经历长期表现不佳，是我决定退休的一个重要原因。

Dealing with the underperformance during a raging and somewhat speculative bull market was a contributing factor to my decision to retire.

真的吗？

Really?

这非常痛苦。

It was very painful.

是的。

Yeah.

这非常艰难，因为我身边几乎没有其他价值投资者，在富达内部我也希望在那段时期能有一些既能安慰自己又能对这些人产生积极影响的东西。

It's very hard because I don't have any there were a small band of value investors, fidelity, and I wish during that period that I had something that was both comforting and productive to those people.

但我什么都没有。

And I had nothing.

我没有任何话可以用来安慰自己。

I had nothing for my to tell myself.

股票的售价低于其公允价值，因此我对它们感到满意。

Stocks are selling for less than their fair value, and so I'm good with them.

但当然，如果你是个好胜心强的人，落后于基准会让人很痛苦。

But of course it hurts if you're a competitive person that you are behind the benchmark.

我记得乔·格林布拉特曾经对我说过：‘除了买便宜的东西，我还能做什么呢？’

I remember Joe Greenblatt once saying to me, what else am I gonna do except buy stuff cheap?

他说：‘我相信长期来看这会奏效的。’

He's like, I I believe that it's gonna work in the long run.

那我还能做什么呢？

And what else am I gonna do?

我没有其他方法。

I don't have another approach.

让·玛丽·阿尔维亚德也对我说过同样的话。

Jean Marie Arviard said the same thing to me.

他说：‘我还能做什么呢？'

He's like, What else could I do?

我只能做一个价值投资者。

I can only be a value investor.

买便宜的东西，以低于其价值的价格购买，这是有道理的。

It makes sense to buy stuff cheap, to buy it for less than it's worth.

这很难。

And it's tough.

对吧？

Right?

我的意思是，你经历过一段疯狂的时期，你之前就持有过游戏驿站的股票，我认为在它成为迷因股之前，它突然从不到20美元涨到了300多美元。

I mean, you went through this crazy experience where even you had owned GameStop, I think, before it became a meme stock, and suddenly it went from under 20 to over $300.

你一定在看着这一切，心里想着：我该如何以一种理智负责的方式参与这个游戏呢？

You must just be watching that and just thinking, I I just how do I play this game in any sort of sensible responsible way?

所以我买入时，一方面是觉得它被低估了，因为它一直是个稳定的现金生成者；另一方面，我有点不愿意接受现实，即电子游戏销售模式确实已经改变，他们的业务可能受到了更大损害。

And so when I bought it, it was a combination of I thought it was undervalued because it had been a consistent cash generator and a bit of reluctance to accept reality that indeed video game sales had changed and maybe their business was more impaired.

所以当股价从个位数涨到38美元时，他们卖掉了一部分股票，然后在股价达到63美元时，清仓了绝大部分持仓。

So when they lifted it off from single digits and got to 38, they sold some of the stock and blew out pretty much all of the rest when it was 63.

从那里，股价涨到了350美元左右。那么，我按照自己的投资理念行事，是否做到了应做之事？

And from there it went to like $350 So did I do what I was meant to do thinking about my approach?

是的，即使有来自Chewy的布赖恩·科恩这样懂互联网零售的人帮忙，增长潜力也受到一定限制，38美元和63美元时，股价已属于合理甚至偏高。

Yes, even with the help of the guy from Chewy, Brian Cohen, who knew about internet retailing, the possibility of the growth opportunities were somewhat challenged and it was fairly valued to overvalued at 38 and 63.

所以我卖了，但如果你苛刻一点，会说你浪费了基金持有人数十亿美元的资金，因为你在那些价位卖出，而不是等到股价涨到350美元。

And so I sold, but if you were really unpleasant, you'd say you blew away, you threw away a billion dollars worth of the fund holders money by selling at those prices and not waiting until it hit $3.50.

我唯一的辩解是，我一直在做我该做的事，而且令人烦恼的是，卖出的股数和价格都是公开记录在案的。

And my only defense is I was doing what I was supposed to do and annoyingly a matter of public record, how many shares were sold and what prices.

所以，乔尔，当你在2023年宣布将退休不再担任基金经理时，这是否部分源于这段漫长时期带来的情感和心理消耗——当一种非理性投资方式表现得更好时，你不断撞墙、逆流而行，最终感到力不从心？

So when you announced, Joel, that you were going to retire as a fund manager at the 2023, was it partly just a reaction to the emotional and psychological drain and exhaustion of going through this long period where a less rational approach to investing was doing better and it just at a certain point it becomes harder and harder to be banging your head against the wall and swimming against the tide to mix metaphors?

是的。

Yeah.

我想是的。

I think you yeah.

很难说清楚。

It is hard to tell.

我认为，过去两年里，金融市场的现实世界中出现的疯狂现象，几乎前所未有。

I think there's rarely been as much stuff that seemed crazy to me that was going on in financial markets and the rest of the real world than over the last two years.

很难预测这种情况，但确实让人情绪上感到精疲力尽。

And it's hard to handicap it, but yeah, it was sort of emotionally exhausting.

但与此同时，我父亲的生命已接近尾声，这让我开始思考死亡的问题。他最终在十二月离世，而意识到这一点，加上未能满足股东期望所带来的情感失落，让整个过程变得更加复杂。

But the other thing that was going on was my dad was getting to the end of his life, and I guess that brings thoughts of mortality, and he did finally pass in December, but realizing that, yeah, telling all of that was sort of a complicating factor along with the emotional disappointment about disappointing certain expectations of my shareholders.

我认为，基金市场的格局也发生了变化，彼得只是去了机会所在的地方。

I think also that the market for funds has has changed and Peter went where the opportunity is or was.

我也试图去寻找机会所在。

I tried to go where the opportunity is.

只要我能理解它。

If I can understand it.

好吧，足够多的资金会流向那些你非常了解的细分机会，但现代基金却令人烦恼地倾向于让你看起来像一只指数基金，我认为这对基金持有人并无好处——因为如果你要持有一只‘伪装的’指数基金，还不如直接持有指数基金本身。

Well, the enough goes to where a subset of the opportunity that you know is extremely well, but modern funds are sort of annoyingly pushing towards making you look like an index fund, which I think is not a favor to the fund holder, because if you're going to hold a closet index fund, you might as well just hold the index fund.

我记得多年前，威尔告诉我，他曾向沃伦·巴菲特请教，说：‘我管理着大约2000亿美元，您有什么建议？’

I remember Will telling me that years ago, he got advice from Warren Buffett and said, look, I'm managing, I think it was $200,000,000,000 What advice do you have?

巴菲特说要更集中精力，你不可能太过集中，但至少在你有极高信心时，做出一些占比达到三十分之一的重大押注。

And Buffett saying concentrate more, you can't concentrate that much, but at least make one:thirty bigger bets when you have really high conviction.

我认为威尔完全遵循了这一点，因为今天你会发现，在他那庞大的投资组合中，有一些7%的重仓，而美国证交会的规定限制了你持有5%及以上仓位的数量。

And I think Will has absolutely followed that because I think today you will find in his ginormous sponge, some 7% bets, the SEC regulations limit the number of 5% and higher bets that you can have.

所以我认为他确实遵循了这一建议。

And so I think he has followed that advice.

你以前跟我谈过你对死亡的感悟，这个问题一直对你有较重的分量。

You've talked to me before about your sense of mortality, and it always weighed somewhat heavily on you this question.

我记得你提到过，2011年你去日本参加投资会议，当时发生了9.0级地震，引发了袭击福岛的海啸。

I remember you talking about being in Japan, going to investment conferences and the like in 2011 when I think it was a nine point zero earthquake hit that triggered the tsunami that hit Fukushima.

那似乎对你的人生产生了深远的影响。

And it seemed like that had a really powerful impact on your life.

你能谈谈这次事件如何塑造了你对生活态度和人生贡献的看法吗？

Can you talk a bit about how that also has shaped your view of how you wanted to live your life and what you wanted to contribute?

是的，当时我在日本参加一个会议，地震发生前的周二已经有些轻微震感，其中一次持续时间很短，可能只有半分钟，我看着公司管理层和翻译，翻译说：‘哦，这是地震或余震。’

Yeah, that was an especially in I was at a conference in Japan and there had been some tremors on Tuesday before the earthquake and one of them was very brief, it might have been half a minute and I looked at the company management and translator during that, and the translator said, Oh, that was an earthquake or tremor.

由于他们看起来并不惊慌，我也就没觉得害怕，因为人们的现实感是由周围人认为什么是真实的所定义的。

And since they did not seem freaked out, I was not freaked out since people's reality is defined by what people around them think is real.

星期五就不同了。

Friday was different.

我们正在开公司会议，杯子开始在桌上滑动，眼看就要掉下来，公司的人越来越担心，于是我们通过消防通道走到底层。令人惊叹的是，日本人以他们特有的轻柔与善意，为我们提供了免费的咖啡，我很感激，但所有人都下到了底层。

We were in a company meeting and the cups started to slide around and were threatening to fall off the table, and the company became increasingly worried and we walked down through the fire escape to the bottom Floor and in amazing Japanese lightness and kindness, they served us some free coffee, which I appreciated, but everybody went down to the bottom Floor.

我试图叫出租车送我回酒店，但出租车始终没来。

I tried to get the taxi to take me back to the hotel, but the taxi never arrived.

手机没电了，我们只好回到办公室，然后步行回酒店，这段路走起来很惬意，而不是可怕的旅程，但那一夜非常难熬。

The phone, cell phones went dead and went back to the office, so we walked back to the hotel, which was a pleasant walk rather than a horrific walk, and the night was very difficult.

酒店的接待处从顶层搬到了底层，而我的房间在23楼，整栋楼在晃动，能明显看到它在摇晃，午夜时分余震不断。我们团队中另一位成员下到前台时开始哭泣，随后被安排从19楼搬到了2楼，因为最吓人的就是楼体的摇晃。

A reception got moved from the Top Floor to the Bottom Floor of the hotel, and when he, my hotel room was on the 23rd Floor and the building was swaying, you could see it was rocking and the aftershocks continued in the midnight, Another member of our group went down to the front desk and started crying and she got transferred from like the 19th Floor to the 2nd Floor because the spookier part was the rocking.

我本想告诉父亲这里发生的事，但当我打电话时，霍华德叔叔中风了，他在我回家前就去世了，因此我没能告诉父亲关于地震的事，所有飞离的航班、甚至通往机场的火车都已取消。

I had wanted to tell my dad what was going on, but when I did call, uncle Howard had a stroke and he proceeded to die before I got home, And so I didn't tell my dad about the earthquake, flights out and even trains to the airport and flights were all canceled.

所以我被延误了一天，但最终还是离开了。

So I got delayed a day, did get out.

航空公司因此赚了额外利润，但富达认为这笔钱花得值，我也是这么想的，为了逃离那里。

The airline made a extra profit on that, but Fidelity thought that it was money well spent and so did I to escape.

嗯。

Yeah.

这只是一个提醒，生命可能是短暂且出人意料的。

It was just a reminder that life can be short and unexpected.

而且这似乎正是你最终写书的部分原因——你开始思考：我希望自己的遗产是什么？

And it seems like that was one of the reasons why you ended up writing your book was partly that you were starting to think about what do I want my legacy to be?

嗯。

Yeah.

我想这确实是原因之一，我希望写出像彼得·林奇那样的精彩著作，但他是个更出色的讲故事的人，而我可能太书呆子气了，所以写了一本可能更适合专业投资者和狂热的个人投资者的书。

I think that was part of it and hope that I could write something as awesome as the Peter Lynch books, but he's a more gifted storyteller, and guess I am too geeky, and produced a book that's probably more for professional investors and really avid personal investors.

我认为这是一本优秀而有价值的书，里面有精彩的故事、实用的建议，而且真实可信，是历经磨炼得来的智慧。

I think it's a good and valuable book that has it has good stories, good practical advice, and it's authentic, and it's it's hard earned wisdom.

我认为，我当然会强烈建议我们的听众去读这本书。

I think it's, I mean, I would definitely strongly encourage our listeners to read it.

我也很好奇，知道你一生中经历了许多——失去家人、工作和市场不按理性分析运转的困境，还有地震之类的灾难。

I'm also curious, knowing that you've gone through a lot over your lifetime, loss of family members, struggles with work and with markets that aren't cooperating with rational analysis and earthquakes and the like.

我想知道，对于我们这些同样面临创伤、痛苦、挫折和挑战的人，你有没有发现什么特别有帮助的方法，能让你在面对逆境时保持清醒的视角？

I'm curious if there's anything that the rest of us who also face our own traumatic and painful situations and setbacks and challenges, if there's anything that you found really helpful in dealing with adversity that has put things in perspective in some way.

请赐予我耐心，去接受我能控制的事情，也接受我无法控制的事情。

Give me patience to accept the things that I can control and accept the things that I can't.

如果一个结果不好，但你无法想到在当时的信息条件下自己还能做得更好，或者这件事根本无法控制，那就没必要为无法掌控的事情责备自己，比如，唉，如果我当初没有短暂地抛掉亚马逊股票就好了，但事实上，我确实希望投资那些能产生当前收益和现金流的公司，所以二十年前根本就没打算长期持有亚马逊。

Just because it was a bad outcome, if you can't think of how you would have done it better with the information that you had at the time, then there's no sense, or if you can't control it, there's no sense in beating yourself up on things you can't control, things where say, gosh, if I had held on to Amazon for more than briefly, would have been different, but in fact, yeah, I want companies that are producing current earnings and cash flow, so it was probably never meant to hold on to Amazon twenty years ago.

所以某种程度上，你是在对自己温柔一点，对自己宽容一些。

So in a way it's to some degree being gentle with oneself and a little forgiving of oneself is is something that you're doing.

是的，完全正确。

Yeah, absolutely.

如果事情无法控制，而且你当时也无法做出更好的决定，那就对自己温柔一点。

If you can't control it and wouldn't have made a better decision, then be gentle.

如果你在当时的信息条件下本可以做出不同的决定，那就一定要从中吸取教训，并牢牢记住。

And if you would have made a different decision with the information you had, then be darn sure that you learn that and remember that.

就我而言，喝十二杯朗姆可乐加一些啤酒是个极糟糕的主意。

In my case, having 12 rum and Cokes and some beer is a really horrible idea.

一定要记住这一点，别再重复了。

Be sure that you take away that and and don't repeat it.

但喝上几杯烈性饮料或许还不错。

But a couple of monster beverages might be good.

那是大约四十五年前的事了，但千万别再这么做了。

That would be some forty five years ago, but don't do it.

你将在大约三十二年后，也就是2023年退休时，将基金交出去，之后继续担任股票团队的高级顾问。

You're handing on the fund after, I think, thirty two years, a little more it'll be by the 2023 when you retire as a fund manager and stay on as a senior advisor to the equity team.

你将把它交给两位我认为已与你共事了十五年的人，一位是你之前提到过的摩根·佩克和萨姆·钱古茨。

You're handing it over to two people who I think have worked with you for the last fifteen years, a lady you mentioned before, Morgan Peck and Sam Changuitz.

我这样发音对吗？

Am I pronouncing that correctly?

你能告诉我们，你试图向他们传达的不仅是如何选股，还有对股东的承诺感吗？我认为，这正是你和威尔·丹霍夫身上最显著的特征——真正深切地关心你的股东。

Can you give us a sense of what it is you're trying to convey to them, not just about how to pick stocks, but about a sense of commitment to shareholders, which I think has been one of the defining characteristics both for you and Will Danhoff, this sense of actually really deeply caring about your shareholders.

你想要向下一代传达什么？

What are you trying to convey to the next generation?

因为我的感觉是，你非常关心这只信安低费率股票基金。

Because my sense is that you deeply care about this baby fidelity low price stock.

我的意思是，这是你创造出来的基金，现在你要把它交出去。

I mean, this is this is your creation that you're handing on.

努力做正确的事。

Try to do the right thing.

努力让基金的波动性低于市场。

Try to the fund is less volatile than the market.

因此，在市场下跌时，投资者更容易坚持持有。

So it's somewhat easier to hang on to in down markets.

尽管这并不能避免它们和我一样失望于基金下跌，但我觉得这不太可能让你在错误的时间抛售。

Although that doesn't mean that they're not as disappointed as I am, that it's down and you can't avoid that, but I think it's less likely to make you sell at the wrong time.

是的，我试图向萨姆和摩根强调的是，在可选的情况下，选择行业最佳的公司；除此之外，更像是霍华德·马克斯所暗示的——成千上万件小事。

Yeah, try to choose when they're available, the best in class companies is what I'm trying to push to Sam and Morgan, Beyond that, it's more like Howard Marks implied, which is a thousand little things.

你所说的‘一千件小事’是什么意思？

What do you mean about a thousand little things?

他写过一本书，最重要的事情，你知道，结论是投资中没有哪一件事是最重要的，而是有上千件小事。

He had a book, the most important thing, you know, and the conclusion is there's not a most important thing in investing, there's a thousand little things.

是的。

Yeah.

但我认为真正重要的事情是，你要以股东的身份行事，如果他们拥有你这样的知识，他们会怎么做？因为我们整天都在研究这些，我们理应拥有更好的知识，但你要做的是，就像他们拥有同等知识时会做的那样。

But I think the really big thing is do what the shareholder would do for themselves if they had the knowledge that you have, which since we spend all day on it, we should have better knowledge, but do what they would do if they had the same knowledge.

我记得你曾经对我说过，乔尔，人们经常问你，为什么你不设立对冲基金，收取2%的年费和20%的利润分成呢？

I remember you once saying to me, Joel, that people had often said to you, why don't why don't you run a hedge fund where you get, you know, 2% annual fees and 20% of the profits?

你当时对我说，我对让已经富有的人变得更富有并不感兴趣。

And you had said to me, I'm not really interested in making people who are already rich much richer.

而在我看来，你管理的富达低价股基金，大概拥有一百万名股东，管理的资产规模大约是七千亿美元。

And my sense with you with Fidelity low price stock, I think you probably have about a million shareholders, something like that, and you've been managing maybe 70,000,000,000 in assets.

我感觉你真正做到了一点，那就是你职业生涯中一个显著的特点：你非常关心自己是否为这些投资者尽职尽责。

My sense about you was that you really did One of the distinctive things about your career is the degree to which you cared about whether you were doing a good job for those people.

是的。

Yeah.

我认为威尔也非常在意这一点，但金融行业并不总是充满人性的意义，但在某些地方，你希望它能为他人提供服务。

And I think Will cares about it a great deal, but finance is not a business that is draped with a lot of human meaning, but there are places where you want it to be of service to someone.

当你回顾自己的职业生涯，经历了如此辉煌的历程，是什么让你感到满足？

When you look back on your career, having had this incredible run, what gives you a sense of satisfaction about it?

因为从某种意义上说，你刚刚经历了一段非常痛苦的时期，尽管你的长期业绩依然出色，但过去十年无疑令人沮丧。

Because you've come through this very painful period in a sense in the last few years, albeit your long term record is still great, but it's obviously been a frustrating decade three:thirty in a sense.

你回望过去，哪些方面让你感到满意？

What do you look back on with satisfaction?

我很高兴大多数基金持有人获得了令人满意的回报。

I'm glad that most fund holders have gotten a satisfactory return.

我也很高兴富达内部涌现出像摩根和萨姆这样的后起之秀，他们会继续关注股东利益。

I'm also glad that there are up and coming people like Morgan and Sam at Fidelity who will continue to try to do that, looking at the attention to shareholders.

我能看到成长团队中的一些人受到了威尔理念的影响，是的，我认为为大量普通民众带来满意回报，并培养下一代人才，这才是最重要的。

I can see people in the growth group who have been affected by Will's approach, and yeah, I think producing satisfactory results for a lot of average people, for a huge number of average people in developing talent in the next generation.

当你展望未来时，你看看，我今年54岁了。

And when you look to the future, you're you're look, I'm 54.

我现在看着你。

I look at you now.

我觉得你64岁了。

I think you're 64.

我觉得你是个相对年轻的人，不像披头士当年唱‘当我64岁’时，那感觉简直老得不行。

I think of you as a relatively young man, unlike the Beatles when they were saying, you know, when I'm 64 and it seemed incredibly old.

当你展望未来时，你觉得自己会做些什么？

When you look to the future, what do you see yourself doing?

除了显然会像给萨姆和摩根这样的年轻人提供建议之外，你打算如何度过接下来的二十年、三十年、四十年，甚至五十年——我希望如此？

Well, in addition to obviously offering advice to people like Sam and Morgan, how do you intend to spend the next twenty, thirty, forty, fifty years, I hope?

我有时在想，是否该重写并更新这本书，因为有了新的故事，有些话题可能被遗漏了，有些则可能需要加入，所以我还不确定是否要这么做。在我父亲去世前的那个夏天，我和他谈过这件事，他并不太支持。

I sometimes wonder whether I want to rewrite and update the book because there are new stories and there's some topics that I think some might be left out, some might be added, so I'm not sure if I'm going to do that, and one of the things that I had talked about with my dad in the summer before he passed, he was not so keen on that.

我当时问他关于他写过但没出版的一本书，他当时在某种程度上是在推着我。

I was asking him about a book that he had worked on but not published, and he was sort of pushing me.

他曾经对国际贸易以及它对经济和社会的影响有一些想法，觉得这非常有趣。

He had had some thoughts about international trade and how that affects economies and societies, and he thought that was very interesting.

我可能会这么做，但更有可能的是，我会对‘大钱’这件事做些小的更新。

I might do that, although I think the likelihood is more that it will update the big money thing small.

此外，我还在韦斯利安大学担任受托人，并试图与他们合作。

There's also a trustee at Wesleyan University and trying to work with them.

我没有参与投资委员会，而是校园事务委员会的成员，因此我在推动一些他们并不太想要的想法，但我正在寻找 someone 能帮助学术界撰写关于大学开支规则的文章，因为我认为所谓的‘托宾规则’存在问题，而通过更深入地审视收入，这个问题或许能得到解决。

They do not, I'm on the campus affairs committee, not the investment committee, and so I'm pushing my thoughts where they're not really wanted, but I think the I'm looking for someone to help maybe in academia write about university spending rules because I think that there is a problem with what they call the Tobin rule that really would be solved by looking more, look through income.

你多次提到你的父亲，我读过他的讣告文章，他显然是一位非凡的人物。

And you've mentioned your father a few times, I was reading his obituary essay, he's obviously a remarkable human being.

我想最后问你一个问题：有没有什么特别的事情，是他通过生活方式或对你的教导传递给你的，你可以分享给我们，以此纪念他的记忆？

And I wonder if I could just ask you as a final question, if there's anything in particular that he taught you through the way he lived his life or through things he told you that you could pass on to us, really in some ways in in honor of his his memory?

倾听每个人，观察一切，不要相信你所有的想法，持续探索。

Listen to everyone, observe everything, don't believe everything you think, keep exploring.

我父亲是一位极其善良的人。

My dad was an exceptionally kind man.

是的，继续学习。

Yeah, keep learning.

他一生都在这样做。

That's what he did all his life.

《华尔街日报》上有一篇关于蜘蛛及其织网方式的文章，这其实是他的专长，我非常怀念他关于蜘蛛丝中需要一定湿度才能产生，但随后会干燥的描述和知识。

It's a article in the Wall Street Journal about spiders and how they produce the web, which was actually his specialty and I so miss his descriptions and knowledge of apparently there's some moisture in it that is required to produce it, but then it dries off.

但要持续学习，这正是他会说的。

But keeping learning, that's what he would say.

威廉，这是很好的传承。

William That's a good legacy.

乔尔，非常感谢你。

Joel, thank you so much.

和你聊天真是太愉快了。

It's been such a pleasure chatting with you.

我由衷感谢你的慷慨，分享了你的想法，无论是通过你的书、我的书，还是今天的这次对话。

I really appreciate your generosity and sharing your ideas, both in your book, my book, and in this conversation today.

和你聊天总是令人愉快。

It's it's always a delight chatting with you.

谢谢。

Thank you.

好了，各位。

Alright, folks.

今天的对话就到这里，感谢伟大的乔尔·蒂林哈斯特。

That's it for today's conversation with the great Joel Tillinghast.

如果你想更多地了解乔尔，不妨翻翻我书中的第八章，《更富足、更明智、更快乐》，我写了关于他的几页内容。

If you'd like to learn more from Joel, you may wanna glance at chapter eight of my book, richer, wiser, happier, where I wrote a couple of pages about him.

乔尔自己也写了一本非常好的书，我强烈推荐。

Joel also wrote a very good book of his own that I would definitely recommend.

书名叫《大钱，小思考》。

It's titled big money, think small.

副标题是：偏见、盲点与更聪明的投资。

The subtitle is biases, blind spots, and smarter investing.

书中充满了关于如何更明智地投资的实用建议，同样重要的是，如何避免愚蠢且代价高昂的错误。

It's full of really practical advice about how to invest more intelligently and equally important, how to avoid dumb and costly mistakes.

我很快就会回来，带来更多精彩的嘉宾，包括一位名叫约翰·斯皮尔斯的伟大投资者，他几乎半个世纪都效力于一家名为特威迪·布朗的标志性投资公司。

I'll be back very soon with some more terrific guests, including a great investor named John Spears, who has spent almost half a century at an iconic investment firm called Tweedy Brown.

与此同时，欢迎在推特上关注我，账号是William Green seventy two，并告诉我你对这个播客的体验如何。

In the meantime, please feel free to follow me on Twitter at William Green seventy two, and do let me know how you're enjoying the podcast.

能收到你们的反馈，我总是非常高兴。

I'm always delighted to hear from you.

我们下次再见。

Until next time.

保重，身体健康。

Take care, and stay well.

感谢收听TIP。

Thank you for listening to TIP.

请通过投资者播客网络订阅《我们研究亿万富翁》。

Make sure to subscribe to We Study Billionaires via The Investor's Podcast Network.

每周三，我们向您讲解比特币；每周六，我们研究亿万富翁和金融市场。

Every Wednesday, we teach you about Bitcoin, and every Saturday, we study billionaires and the financial markets.

要获取我们的节目笔记、文字稿或课程，请访问 theinvestorspodcast.com。

To access our show notes, transcripts, or courses, go to the investorspodcast.com.

本节目仅用于娱乐目的。

This show is for entertainment purposes only.

在做出任何决定之前，请咨询专业人士。

Before making any decision, consult a professional.

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This show is copyrighted by The Investor's Podcast Network.

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Written permission must be granted before syndication or rebroadcasting.