RWH021：在不确定性中投资，对话乔尔·格林布拉特、比尔·米勒、霍华德·马克斯和弗朗索瓦·罗雄

我在寻找真正称得上是不公平优势的投资机会，但我不会同时拥有五六十个或一百个这样的机会。

I'm looking for really what I would call unfair bets, I don't have 50 or 100 unfair bets at a time to take.

由于必要性，当我管理一个高度集中的投资组合时，我只能选择六到八个这样的机会，而且必须设定非常高的门槛。

By necessity, have to, when I was running a very concentrated portfolio, take six or eight of them And just have a very fine, I think you have to have a very high hurdle.

要进入投资组合，它必须真的非常出色。

Well, to get into the portfolio, it has to be really great.

如果你持有六到八个出色的投资标的，或者至少是高质量的赌注，而且你真正了解自己持有的是什么，这会让人感到安心得多。

If you own six or eight great things, or at least great bets, that's more comforting if you actually know what you own.

如果你不了解自己持有的是什么，不懂如何评估一家企业的价值，你就只会被情绪左右，因为你根本不懂自己持有的东西。

If you don't know what you own, if you don't know how to value a business, you're just going to react to the emotions because you don't actually understand what you own.

但如果你真正理解自己持有的资产，并且当初买入这些资产的前提依然成立，这才是应对情绪的唯一方式，因为你意识到你所持有的东西依然优质。

But if you actually understand what you own and the premise that you bought those things with is still intact, that's actually the only way I think you can deal with the emotion because you realize it's what you own is still good.

乔的这个回答中，有几件事让我感到特别印象深刻。

There are a number of things that I found really striking in this answer from Joe.

其中第一点是，即使是他，也感受到了那种‘被踢中胃部’的痛苦，这说明即使像乔这样天生适合这种游戏的人，这个过程也绝非毫无痛苦。

The first of which is that it's interesting to me that even he feels the kick in the stomach that this is not a painless process for, even someone I think is temperamentally well suited to this game as Joel is.

我记得我曾问过霍华德·马克斯，他在2008年底或2009年初金融危机期间大举投资有毒债券时，是否觉得很难做出投资决策。

I do remember when I asked Howard Marks whether he found it difficult to invest during, you know, the financial crisis around early two thousand and nine or late two thousand and eight when he was investing incredibly aggressively in toxic bonds.

他说，不，我根本不记得那有什么困难。

He said, no, I don't remember it being difficult at all.

我当时问他：你一直都是这么冷静的吗？

And I said to him at the time, do you were you always this unemotional?

他说，是的。

And he said, yeah.

我又问：这有没有影响到你的关系？

And I said, have you had trouble with your relationships as a result?

因为我知道他结过几次婚。

Because I knew that he'd been married a couple of times.

他说，是的，我第一次婚姻中确实很困难。

And he said, yeah, it was difficult in my first marriage.

他说，我后来在这方面有所改善，但没错，我一向都挺冷静的。

He said, I've become better about it, but, yeah, I was always pretty unemotional.

所以我认为，最伟大的投资者往往在性格上具有优势。

So I do think that the greatest investors tend to have a temperamental advantage.

我怀疑，他们的思维方式有时确实与众不同。

There's a difference in their wiring sometimes, I suspect.

但有趣的是，当你听到乔·格林巴特说，即使是他也会感到胃部一阵绞痛。

But then it's interesting to me that you hear Joe Greenbat saying that even he feels the the kick in the stomach.

这让你感受到这场游戏的情感强度。

And I think that gives you a sense of the emotional intensity of this game.

这很艰难。

This is tough.

乔尔还指出了一点，我认为非常重要：正因为投资令人痛苦、充满情绪，这才恰恰是我们能赚钱的原因。

And one of the things that also Joel points out that I think is really important is this idea that because it's painful, because it's emotional, that's actually why we can make money.

对吧？

Right?

这可以追溯到本·格雷厄姆的‘市场先生’概念，市场本质上是双相的，受这些强烈情绪的驱动。

We can this is something that goes back to Ben Graham with his concept of mister market, that the market is basically bipolar, and so it's driven by these intense emotions.

因此，作为投资者，你可以决定：我其实不必接受当前提供的任何交易，因为对我来说，没有任何东西便宜到值得买入。

And so you as the investor can decide, well, I don't actually have to take the deal that I'm being offered because nothing is cheap enough for me to buy.

因此，像乔尔、霍华德·马克斯、查理·芒格或沃伦·巴菲特这样的人所拥有的优势之一，就是他们能够以相当冷静的态度旁观这场游戏的疯狂，以及市场的两极情绪波动，大多数时候只是什么都不做。

And so part of the advantage that people like Joel or Howard Marks or Charlie Munger or Warren Buffett have is that they're able to stand aside in a fairly dispassionate way and watch the craziness of this game, the bipolar mood swings of the market, and most of the time just not do anything.

然后，他们只需等待少数定价错误的机会、一些极具吸引力的契机，再以芒格所说的‘胆识’果断出手。

And then just wait for a few mispriced bets, a few opportunities that are very appealing, and then they strike with with what Munger calls gumption.

因此，这是一种长期静止与短暂极度积极行动交替的模式。

So it's a mixture of these these long periods of inactivity followed by some periods of extreme aggressive activity.

这是最伟大投资者中非常常见的模式。

That that's a very common pattern among the greatest investors.

我还想起乔尔在我为他写书做采访时对我说过的一句话。

I'm also reminded of something that that Joel said to me when I was interviewing him for my book.

他说：看。

He he said, look.

关于从痛苦中诞生的机会，他说人们是疯狂且情绪化的。

On this subject of opportunities coming out of pain, he said people are crazy and emotional.

他们买卖东西是凭情绪，而不是凭逻辑。

They buy and sell things in an emotional way, not in a logical way.

而这正是我们拥有任何机会的唯一原因。

And that's the only reason why we have any opportunity.

所以，如果你有一种有纪律且合理的估值方法，你就应该能够利用他人的情绪。

So if you have a way to value businesses that's disciplined and makes sense, you should be able to take advantage of other people's emotions.

对吧？

Right?

因此，这里有一个核心理念，就是要利用他人的情绪。

So there's this central idea that you're trying to take advantage of other people's emotions.

你不仅仅是在试图控制自己的情绪。

You're not just trying to control your own emotions.

但这引出了乔尔提到的一个非常重要的问题：你是否真的拥有一种有纪律的、合乎逻辑的估值方法？

But this raises this really important question that Joel mentions, which is, do you actually have a disciplined way, a disciplined logical way to value businesses?

乔尔向我解释过的一件事，我认为对我产生了深远影响，那就是：如果你不知道如何估值一家企业，你就根本没有资格参与这个游戏。

And one of the things that Joel explained to me that I think had a a profound effect on me is is he said, look, if you don't know how to value a business, you really have no right to play this game.

你应该持有指数基金，或者投资于一位真正懂得如何操作的主动型基金经理。

You you should own an index fund or you should invest with an active fund manager who does know what they're doing.

所以这是一个非常核心的理念。

And so this is a really central idea.

对吧？

Right?

你必须真正问自己是否有能力在这场游戏中获胜，并且你需要理解游戏规则。

You have to actually ask yourself if you're qualified to win this game, and you need to understand the rules.

因此，乔尔让我深刻认识到的一点是，整个游戏本质上是这样的：股票是企业的所有权份额，而你正在评估它们的价值。

And so one of the things that Joel impressed upon me is he said, look, the whole game, basically, stocks are ownership shares of businesses, and you're valuing them.

然后你试图以远低于其实际价值的价格买入它们。

And then you're trying to buy them for much less than they're worth.

就是这样。

And that's it.

这就是他认为的投资的本质。

That's the essence of investing as he sees it.

所以他说道，如果你不知道自己在找什么，那就像是拿着燃烧的火柴跑过炸药厂。

And so he said, if you don't know what you're looking for, it's like running through a dynamite factory with a burning match.

他说，你也许能活下来，但你依然是个傻瓜。

And he said, you may live, but you're still an idiot.

我认为，在最近这段时间里，我们已经看到了这种情况：人们被那些他们以为可以永远持有的高科技股票，或者他们根本不理解、部分由博傻理论驱动的加密货币冲昏了头脑——这种理论认为，总会有一个更傻的人来接盘。

And I think that's something that we've seen in this recent period where people were getting extremely carried away by high-tech stocks that they thought you could own forever or by cryptocurrencies that they didn't understand that were driven to some degree by the greater fool theory, the idea that someone stupider was gonna come along and buy it from you.

这纯粹是价格动量。

It was just price momentum.

我并不是想冒犯任何人，因为我自己也犯过很多愚蠢的错误，但我认为乔的这种基本认知非常重要，我们必须真正理解自己所拥有的东西。

And I'm not trying to be insulting because I made plenty of dumb mistakes myself, but I I think this fundamental understanding from Joe is an important one to internalize, this idea that we we have to know what we own.

我们必须以非情绪化的方式对其进行估值。

We have to value it in an unemotional way.

如果我们不知道如何做到这一点，就会处于极大的劣势，因为我们只是被人群的情绪波动所裹挟。

And that if we don't know how to do that, then we're at a tremendous disadvantage because we're just carried away by the mood swings of the crowd.

这一点在我采访众多优秀投资者时反复出现。

And this is something that comes up again and again in the interviews that I've done with great investors.

如果你听过我最近与弗雷德·马丁的一期访谈，他非常出色，他谈到了一个基本的过程：你评估一家企业的价值，然后以低于其内在价值的价格买入。

If you listen to one of the most recent episodes that I did with Fred Martin, who's remarkable, He talks about this fundamental process where you value a business and you buy at a discount to what it's worth.

然后，正如他所说，内在价值与股价之间会逐渐趋于一致。

And then as he puts it, there's a truing up between the intrinsic value and the stock price.

正如他所说，你根本无法预知这需要多长时间。

And as he puts it, you have no idea how long it's gonna take.

这相当随机。

It's pretty random.

因此，成为一名成功投资者的关键之一，就是要有耐心等待这种价差收窄。

And, you know, so one of the keys to being a successful investor is to have the patience to wait for that gap to close.

乔·格林布拉特曾经对我说，他通常认为这只需要两三年时间。

Joe Greenblatt said to me once, he thinks typically it only takes two or three years.

有时可能需要更长时间。

Sometimes it can take longer.

正如我们从约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯那里知道的，市场在你资金耗尽之前，可能会长时间保持非理性状态，如果你运气特别差的话。

The market, as we know from John Maynard Keynes, can remain irrational for longer than you can remain solvent if you're really unlucky.

所以，再次强调，关键是理解基本的底层过程，也就是游戏规则：以折扣价购买资产，以理性、自律的方式评估其价值，然后耐心等待价差收窄。

So, again, it's understanding the fundamental underlying process, this the rules of the game, buying stuff at a discount, knowing how to value it in a sensible, disciplined way, and then waiting for that gap to close.

在这档播客的另一集中，我与比尔·米勒探讨了投资中的情绪挑战问题。

In another episode of this podcast, I spoke with Bill Miller about this issue of the emotional challenge of investing.

我想更好地了解他是如何个人应对这种痛苦和压力的，同时也想了解普通投资者该如何应对。

I wanted to get a better sense of how he personally deals with the pain and pressure, but also of how regular investors can deal with it.

正如你可能知道的，比尔是一位传奇般的聪明投资者和亿万富翁，曾连续十五年跑赢标普500指数。

As you probably know, Bill is a legendarily smart investor and billionaire who famously beat the S and P five hundred for fifteen years running.

他对于风险也具有异常高的承受能力。

He also has an incredibly high tolerance for risk.

去年我采访他时，科技股和比特币正遭受重创。

And when I interviewed him for the podcast last year, tech stocks and Bitcoin were getting absolutely hammered.

比尔当时正承受巨大损失，因为他个人大量投资了亚马逊股票——他持有该股已超过二十年，以及比特币——他从每枚约200美元时就开始买入。

And Bill was in the midst of taking a beating because he had enormous personal investments in Amazon, which he'd owned for more than twenty years, and Bitcoin, which he'd started buying at around $200 per coin.

比尔所承担的风险水平，是我们大多数人无法承受的。

Bill is, takes on a level of risk that most of us couldn't handle.

但当时，他告诉我，他是亚马逊最大的个人股东，名字不是贝佐斯。

But, at the time, he had told me that he was the largest single individual shareholder in Amazon whose name wasn't Bezos.

所以他也能承受亏损。

So he could also afford to take a loss.

总之，这是我的问题和比尔的回答。

Anyway, here's my question and Bill's answer.

我记得查理·芒格曾经对我说过，当我问他2009年3月买入富国银行时是什么感觉，是否情绪化，是否感到恐惧和担忧。

I remember Charlie Munger saying to me at one point when I was asking him what it felt like in 2009 to buy something like Wells Fargo in March 2009, whether it was emotional, whether he felt fear and worry.

他用单音节的方式回答：不。

And he was like in this monosyllabic way, nope.

不。

Nope.

不。

No.

我说，所以你并不是在与这些情绪作斗争，因为你根本感受不到它们。

And I said, so you're not really fighting those emotions because you don't feel them.

所以，你是否也类似，不会在这些时候感受到恐惧、焦虑和担忧这些情绪？

So is that similar with you that you don't really feel those emotions like fear and anxiety and worry during these times?

不会。

No.

我会说，对我来说，焦虑出现在我能察觉市场即将触底的时候，那时我会收到追加保证金的通知，因为尽管巴菲特和芒格谈论的是借贷，但我的观点是，如果你能以实际负利率借入资金来购买有生产力的资产，你就应该这么做。

I would say that the anxiety for me comes when I can always tell when the market is close to a bottom when I get margin calls because despite what Buffett and Munger talk about with respect to borrowed money, my view is that if you can borrow money at negative real interest rates to buy productive assets, that you should do that.

但我确实遇到过追加保证金的情况，这很痛苦，因为你不得不卖出一些你并不想卖的东西来应对。

But I've gotten margin calls here and that's painful because you have to sell stuff that you do not want to sell just to do that.

一旦东西卖了，你还得缴税。

Then once the things are sold and you also have to pay tax then.

我并不比别人更喜欢缴税。

I don't like to pay tax anymore than the next person does.

我在亚马逊上的成本基础几乎为零。

My cost basis on Amazon is effectively zero.

我在比特币上的成本基础几乎为零。

My cost basis on Bitcoin is effectively zero.

所以，为了满足保证金追缴而卖出这些资产，因为它们流动性很高，明年春天会非常痛苦，因为我得为此缴税。

So selling those things to meet margin calls, because they're also highly liquid, is going to be very painful next spring because I got to pay tax on that.

威廉，对于那些更能强烈感受到这些情绪的普通投资者，你有什么建议吗？

William So for a regular investor who feels these emotions much more intensely, Do you have advice for them on what to do?

因为一个反复出现的问题是，你和无数其他杰出的基金经理多年来都遇到过：人们总是在最愚蠢的时刻抛售，恰恰在他们应该买入你的基金时，因为他们的资产正遭受重创。

Because one of the recurring problems, obviously, that you and countless other really exceptional money managers have had over the years is that people bail at exactly the dumbest point, at exactly the moment when they should be buying your funds because they're getting clobbered.

他们失去信心，陷入绝望，然后抛售，等到市场表现很好时才又买回来。

They lose heart, despair, and bail out, and then they buy again when they're doing really well.

回顾过去四十年，目睹了股东们犯下的所有这些错误，你对人们——不仅是你的股东，还有普通大众——有什么建议？当他们早上打开投资组合，看到亏损时，惊呼‘天哪，真的吗？’时，他们该怎么做？

And just looking back on the last forty years and having seen all of these mistakes that shareholders make, what would you advise people, not just your shareholders, but regular people to do when they're feeling barraged by these emotions as they open up their portfolio in the morning and they look and they go, Oh my God, really?

威廉，我的建议是摩根大通曾经说过的：当有人告诉我，他因为市场亏损太多而睡不着觉时。

William Well, my advice to them is what JP Morgan said when somebody said to me, he can't sleep for all the money he's losing in the market.

那他该怎么办？

And what should he do?

摩根大通说：卖掉到你能睡得着的水平。

JP Morgan said, Sell down to the sleeping point.

我认为这就是答案。

Think that's the answer.

你提到这一点真有趣，因为昨天——出于明显原因我不会说出那个人的名字——但昨天，一位世界顶尖的知名基金经理赎回了我们的基金。

It's funny you mentioned that because yesterday, I'm not going to mention the person's name for obvious reasons, but yesterday, a well known money manager, one of the best in the world, redeemed our fund.

所以是数百万、数百万、数百万美元。

So millions and millions and millions of dollars.

他们说：真的吗？

They're like, really?

所以我不认为他拿这笔钱去买了艘超级游艇什么的。

So I don't think he went out to buy a mega yacht or anything.

我的猜测是，他只是担心自己亏了多少钱。

I mean, I'm guessing he just was worried about how much money he's losing.

我认为将投资控制在能安心入睡的水平这个理念非常重要。

I think this idea of investing down to our sleeping point is really important.

显然，这对每个人来说都不同。

And obviously, it's different for each of us.

对吧？

Right?

但非常重要的是要自我认知，清楚自己对痛苦、波动和亏损的实际承受能力。

But it's very important to be self aware, to know what your own tolerance for pain and volatility and loss actually is.

我记得为我的书采访霍华德·马克斯时，他告诉我，我们需要认识到自己的财务和心理脆弱性。

And I remember interviewing Howard Marks for my book, and he said to me, we need to recognize both our financial and our psychological fragility.

他对我说，你最好感到害怕——这种害怕是指承认坏事可能发生，并对自己承受不利结果的能力保持现实态度。

And he said to me, you better be scared, scared in the sense of acknowledging the possibility of bad things happening and being realistic about your own ability to withstand bad outcomes.

当时霍华德对我说，你必须非常谨慎对待那些夸口说‘股市暴跌我也无所谓’的男子汉式言论。

And what Howard said to me at the time is, you've gotta be really careful about these macho claims that you won't mind if the stock market plunges.

他说，你看。

And he said, look.

通常当市场下跌三分之一时，人们会恐慌并抛售，从而将暂时的下跌变成永久性亏损，而这恰恰是最糟糕的事情。

What normally happens when the market goes down by a third is that people panic and they sell, and then they turn this downward fluctuation into a permanent loss, which is the very worst thing that you can do.

所以他的观点是，你必须诚实地面对自己到底能承受多少风险。

So his point to me is you gotta be honest with yourself about how much risk you can actually handle.

因为如果你承担了太多，它会超出你的情感韧性，正如他所说，然后你会做出错误的决定。

Because if you take on too much, it's going to overwhelm your emotional resilience, as he put it, and then you're gonna end up doing the wrong thing.

所以正如我所说，这显然因人而异。

So as I say, it's this is obviously different for each of us.

我们每个人能承受多少痛苦、煎熬、波动和风险，是非常个人化的事情。

It's very personal how how much pain and suffering and volatility and risk we can handle.

波动和风险并不完全是一回事。

And volatility and and risk are not exactly the same thing.

对吧？

Right?

对于像比尔·米勒这样的人，他能承受极大的波动。

So for someone like Bill Miller, he can take extreme amounts of volatility.

部分原因是性格使然。

Partly, it's temperamental.

部分原因是他个性本来就适合这样。

Partly, it's it just suits his personality.

对吧？

Right?

他是个非常激进、高度理性的投资者。

He's a he's a very aggressive hyper rational investor.

事实上，当我校对我的书时，向他询问他当时的个人投资组合，我记得他当时有83%的个人资产都投在亚马逊上，而他的第二大持仓是比特币。

And in fact, when I was fact checking my book with him and was asking him about his personal portfolio at the time, I think if I remember rightly, he had 83% of his personal portfolio in Amazon at the time, and his second biggest position was Bitcoin.

所以这是一个极其激进的投资组合，但那是他自己的钱，他并不太担心，能够承受这种痛苦。

So this was a supremely aggressive portfolio, but that was his own money, and he wasn't that worried about it, and he could withstand the pain.

同样，想想乔尔·格林布拉特，他在早期作为对冲基金经理、在哥谭资本取得巨大成功时，投资组合极度集中，管理资产的80%可能只集中在六到八只股票上。

Likewise, you think about someone like Joel Greenblatt, who in his earlier incarnation as a hedge fund manager in those those years where he was tremendously successful at Gotham Capital, he had an incredibly concentrated portfolio with maybe 80% of his assets under management in six to eight stocks.

他曾告诉我，他可能在几天内就发现自己账面亏损20%到30%，这种情况每两年左右就会发生一次。

And so he once told me that he could easily find himself down 20 or 30% on paper in a matter of days, and it might happen every couple of years.

但我认为他在性格上能够承受这种波动，部分原因正如他之前所说，他清楚自己持有的是什么，因此知道这些资产有多便宜。

But I think he could handle it temperamentally, partly just because, as he said before, he understood what it was he owned, so he knew how cheap it was.

但我认为，你必须找到一个集中度与分散度的平衡点，让你能睡得着觉。

But I think you have to find a level of concentration and diversification that allows you to sleep.

对于弗朗索瓦·罗孔这样的人，他在接受我采访时告诉我，他认为25只股票对他来说刚刚好，这个数量足够集中，能让他跑赢市场，但又足够分散，足以让他承受自己的错误。

And so for someone like Francois Rochon, he told me in the podcast where I interviewed him that he feels 25 stocks is about right for him, that that that's concentrated enough that it allows him to outperform the market, but diversified enough that he'll survive his mistakes.

弗雷德·马丁，我最近采访过他，他极度重视生存能力，在过去五十年里作为一名成功的投资者展现了非凡的韧性。

Fred Martin, who I interviewed recently, who's obsessed with survival and has an incredible ability to endure over the last fifty years as a successful investor.

弗雷德告诉我，他最舒服的投资组合是45到50只股票，这个分散程度足以让他在数十年间大幅跑赢市场。

Fred told me he feels most comfortable with 45 to 50 stocks and that that's diversified enough for him to still have beaten the market by a mile over decades.

所以对我来说，我一直在反复思考这个问题。

So for me, I think about this a great deal.

我有点胆小。

I I'm a little bit of a of a scaredy cat.

因此，我的做法有点反常规。

And so I've kinda contrarian.

我喜欢在别人恐惧时投资。

I like to invest when other people are scared.

那时，我反而感觉挺踏实。

I'm I'm kind of okay then.

但我也非常清楚破产和灾难的风险，我不希望承担过高的风险。

But I'm also really aware of, the risk of ruin, the risk of disaster, and I I don't want to, I don't wanna take excessive risk.

因此，我经常想起二十多年前我在巴哈马拜访约翰·邓普顿爵士时，他对我说过的话。

And so I I I find I often think about something that sir John Templeton told me twenty something years ago when I visited him in The Bahamas.

他说，普通投资者应该持有至少五只投资于金融市场不同领域的基金。

And he said that a regular investor should own a minimum of five funds that are exposed to different areas of the financial markets.

每当我有点冲动，想做出一些非常激进的投资时，我都会反复思考这句话。

And I find myself thinking about that a lot every time I get a little bit carried away, and I think I'd like to make some really aggressive bet.

我会提醒自己，邓普顿说过要足够谦逊，意识到自己的脆弱性。

I try to remind myself of what Templeton said about just being humble enough to be aware of your own vulnerability.

因此，我绝不是在声称自己是个伟大的投资者，但对我自己而言，我将投资策略划分为：我长期以来一直持有两只指数基金，基本上是先锋国际基金和全市场美国基金。

And so I'm not in any way trying to argue that I'm a great investor, but the way I've sliced this for myself is that I've owned two index funds forever, basically, a a Vanguard International Fund and a and a whole market US fund.

然后，我还持有几只相对集中的对冲基金，其中一只非常集中，大部分资金都投在六到八只股票上。

And then I own a couple of pretty concentrated hedge funds, one of which is really pretty concentrated, has most of its money in six or eight stocks.

另一只则稍微分散一些，但依然相当集中。

And I and one that's a little bit more diversified, but still pretty concentrated.

然后我还持有一只非常分散的国际共同基金。

And then one really pretty diversified mutual fund that's an international fund.

然后我持有伯克希尔·哈撒韦，我也把它看作几乎像一只基金，它为投资组合增添了一些稳定性。

And then I own Berkshire Hathaway, which I also regard as almost like a fund, and it it adds some ballast to the portfolio.

我并不是说这些是股票选择、基金选择或推荐。

And I'm I'm not saying any of these things are stock picks or fund picks or recommendations.

我只是想让你了解我是如何为自己思考这个问题的。

I'm just trying to give you a sense of how how I've thought through this issue for myself.

此外，我还持有一些不是很大仓位的其他股票，更多是出于投机性质。

And then I own a couple of other stocks that are not big positions and and that are more a matter of playing.

尽管我不确定这是否明智，但无论如何，‘投资要降到你能安心入睡的水平’——即思考你能承受多少痛苦、认识到自己的局限性，并足够分散投资以确保能挺过错误——这一点至关重要。

Although, I'm not sure that's sensible and but anyway, that idea of investing down to your sleeping point, of thinking about how much pain you can cope with, of thinking about your own fallibility, and diversifying enough so that you'll survive your mistakes is really key.

接下来我想播放的片段，是我2022年3月对霍华德·马克斯的采访。

The next clip I'd like to play you is from an interview that I had with Howard Marx that was published back in March 2022.

正如你可能知道的，霍华德是我们这个时代最著名的投资者之一。

As you probably know, Howard is one of the best known investors of our time.

他作为橡树资本管理公司的联席董事长，管理着约1630亿美元的资产。

He oversees something like a $163,000,000,000 in assets as co chairman of Oaktree Capital Management.

这是我问他的一個问题，以及他的回答。

Here's the question that I asked him, followed by his answer.

我还注意到，像比尔·米勒、查理·芒格、乔尔·蒂林豪斯等许多伟大投资者都具备一种情绪上的优势，他们比大多数人更少情绪化。

Also have a temperamental advantage that I've seen with people like Bill Miller, Charlie Munger, Joel Tillinghouse, lots of the great investors, that you're just less emotional than most of us.

他们更容易抽身而出，冷静地评估各种可能性。

It's easier for you to stand back and look at the odds dispassionately.

情绪是卓越投资的最大敌人。

Emotion is the greatest enemy of superior investing.

如果你观察大多数人的行为——他们所谓的‘羊群’或‘共识’——当经济向好、公司利润增长、财报业绩提升、股价上涨时，大多数人会变得越来越兴奋、越来越乐观、越来越信任，也越来越倾向于买入。

If you take a look at most people in what they call the herd or the consensus, as the economy does well, as the company's profits grow, as it reports higher earnings, as the stock rises, most people become more and more and more excited about it, more optimistic, more trusting, and more inclined to buy.

因此，价格越高，他们买入得越多。

So the higher the price, the more buying they do.

但最终，情况不再那么顺利，经济下滑，企业利润收缩，财报业绩转负，股价下跌，人们变得悲观、沮丧，更倾向于卖出。

Then eventually things stop going so well, the economy turns down, the corporation's profits contract, the earnings announcements are negative, the price of the stock declines, people get pessimistic and depressed and more likely to sell.

所以价格越高，他们越有可能买入。

So the higher the price, the more likely they are to buy.

价格越低，他们越有可能卖出。

The lower the price, the more likely they are to sell.

这恰恰与我们应当做的事情相反。

This is the opposite of what we should be doing.

我们应当在价格上涨时逐步减仓，尤其是在价格变得不合理时；而在价格下跌时，则应全力买入。

We should be scaling out as the price rises, perhaps when it gets unreasonable, and we should be getting in with both feet when it falls.

显然，大多数人类情绪都与做正确的事背道而驰。

So clearly, most human emotion is arrayed against doing the right thing.

而且，你知道，还有许多其他的例子，并不只是这一种。

And, you know, there are a lot of other examples, not just that.

但巴菲特之所以说‘他人行事越不谨慎，我们就越应谨慎行事’，是有原因的。

But there's a reason why Buffett said the less prudence with which others conduct their affairs, the greater the prudence with which we must conduct our own affairs.

当别人无所畏惧时，我们应当感到恐惧，因为这意味着他们会支付过高的价格。

When other people are unafraid, we should be terrified because that means they'll pay prices that are too high.

当其他人感到恐惧时，我们应该变得积极，因为他们的恐慌会使我们以低廉的价格获得机会。

When other people are terrified, we should turn aggressive because their terror makes things available to us cheaply.

你说得对。

And you're right.

我的意思是，我所认识的伟大投资者在投资时都保持冷静，并且反其道而行之。

I mean, the great investors I know are unemotional about their investing, and they go counter to these trends.

我认为这其实不需要我再多做评论。

I don't think this actually requires a great deal of commentary from me.

这完美地总结了为什么独立思考、不被人群情绪裹挟如此重要。

It's it's such a beautiful summary of why it's so important to think for ourselves and not get carried away by the emotions of the crowd.

我想补充一点，是关于1998年左右我去采访约翰·邓普顿爵士的经历，那时他大概快87岁了。

One thing I would add is just a recollection of going to interview sir John Templeton back in 1998, I think it was, when he was, I think, about to turn 87 years old.

我请邓普顿总结一下那些在他漫长的投资生涯中一直帮助他的投资原则。

And I asked Templeton to sum up some of the principles of investing that had served him so well over an enormous period of time.

他告诉我：作为投资者，最重要的一件事就是不要追逐潮流。

And he said to me, look, one of the most important things as an investor is not to chase fads.

所以我们谈到了如何抵御群体的疯狂。

And so we talked a bit about how to defend against the madness of crowds.

泰勒顿总是认为，任何投资者避免陷入这些流行幻觉和群体疯狂（引用他作序的一本著名书籍）的最佳方式，不是关注股票的前景，而是关注其价值。

And one of the things that Templeton would always argue is that really the best way for any investor to avoid falling into these popular delusions and the madness of crowds, to quote from a famous book that he wrote a forward to, is to focus not on on the outlook of a stock, but on its value.

你只需要以对股票实际价值的基本面分析为锚点。

You just wanna be anchored by fundamental analysis of what the stock is actually worth.

他说，这是抵御群体疯狂的伟大保障。

And he said this is the great safeguard against crowd madness.

泰勒顿另一个令人印象深刻的特点是，他如此反主流，以至于会专门研究那些最受冷落的市场。

One of the other things that was really striking about Templeton is that he was so contrarian that he would actually study markets that were the most out of favor.

因此，他寻找优质投资的一种常用方法就是，查看过去五年表现最差的资产类别。

So one of his favorite ways to find a good investment was simply to look at whatever asset class had performed the most terribly over the previous five years.

然后他会问：这些问题只是暂时的，还是永久性的？

And then he would say, well, are these problems temporary or permanent?

我记得在我第一次采访他时，正值亚洲金融危机，韩国遭受重创，他当时在韩国进行了巨额投资。

And so I remember around the time that I'd first interviewed him, he made a huge investment in South Korea during the Asian financial crisis when South Korea had got just absolutely clobbered.

因此，他会走遍全球，真正地问自己：哪里的前景最糟糕？

And so he would go around the world and he would ask himself literally, where is the outlook worst?

于是，他会专注于这些充满绝望的角落，寻找诱人的低价机会，因为人群的悲观情绪简直是一份巨大的礼物。

And so he would focus on these pockets of total gloom and doom looking for enticing bargains because the pessimism of the crowd would be just an incredible gift.

这使他能够以低廉的价格购入资产。

It would enable him to buy assets on the cheap.

这真是对那些贯穿霍华德·马克斯、约翰·邓普顿、巴菲特和芒格职业生涯的重要教训的有力提醒。

And so this is just really a powerful reminder of one of the lessons that runs through the careers of, Howard Marx, John Templeton, Buffett, Munger.

约翰·邓普顿向我总结道：当别人绝望抛售时买入，当别人热情买入时卖出，这是最困难的，但回报也最丰厚。

And the way that John Templeton summed it up to me was he said, to buy when others are despondently selling and to sell when others are enthusiastically buying is the most difficult, but it pays the greatest rewards.

我认为这触及了问题的核心。

And I think that gets at at the crux of the matter.

是的。

Yeah.

这真的非常非常困难。

It's really, really difficult.

从情感上讲，这极其困难，至少对我们大多数人来说是这样，但回报也最丰厚。

Emotionally, it's incredibly hard, at least for most of us, but it pays the greatest rewards.

但至少，我认为最伟大的投资者往往是杰出的逆向投资者，这一点给了我们一个线索：即使我们无法在坦普尔顿所生动描述的悲观至极时点买入，至少我们也绝不应该卖出。

But at the very least, I think this the fact that the greatest investors tend to be these great contrarians gives us a clue that even if we can't buy at what Templeton would eloquently describe as the point of maximum pessimism, at least we shouldn't sell.

至少我们不应该恐慌。

At least we shouldn't panic.

因此，多年来这对我帮助极大。

And so this has been hugely helpful to me over the years.

有些时候，比如新冠疫情初期，我曾多次买入伯克希尔哈撒韦，因为我感觉，好吧。

There there are times, like, during the COVID crisis, the early days of the COVID crisis, when I bought something like Berkshire Hathaway a few times because I felt like, okay.

这世界还没完蛋。

This isn't the end of the world.

情况很可能还会好转，而且价格便宜得离谱。

It's probably gonna be okay, and it's incredibly cheap.

但很多时候，我根本无法说服自己买入任何东西。

But often, I can't actually bring myself to buy anything.

这有点太痛苦了，或者可能我没有足够的现金储备，但至少我不卖。

It's sort of too painful, or maybe I don't have enough cash set aside, but at least I don't sell.

所以在2008年、2009年金融危机期间，我没有卖出。

And so during a time like 2008, 2009, during the financial crisis, I didn't sell.

在最近这次下跌中，我也没有卖出。

And during this this latest downturn, I didn't sell.

而且我知道，从最伟大的投资者身上学到的是，在真正痛苦的时刻，你绝不能恐慌性抛售。

And and just knowing from the greatest investors that at times of real pain, you don't wanna panic and sell.

你不想成为那个事后懊悔的人，说：我随大流了。

You don't wanna be the person who looks back and says, I followed the crowd.

我只是被自己的情绪压垮了，在最糟糕的时机卖出了。

I just got I just got overwhelmed by my own emotion, and I sold at the worst possible time.

所以我认为，这是我们从研究巴菲特、芒格和霍华德·马克斯这样的伟大逆向投资者身上能学到的最有帮助的教训之一。

So this, I think, is one of the one of the most helpful lessons we can learn from studying the, the great contrarians like Buffett, Munger, and Howard Marks.

让我们短暂休息一下，听听今天赞助商的信息。

Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors.

你知道是什么让最优秀的企业脱颖而出吗？

You know what sets the best businesses apart?

正是它们如何利用创新将复杂性转化为增长。

It's how they leverage innovation to turn complexity into growth.

这正是亚马逊广告在AWS人工智能支持下所做的事情。

That's exactly what Amazon Ads is doing, powered by AWS AI.

每天，亚马逊广告处理数十亿次实时决策，优化整个310亿美元广告生态系统中的广告表现。

Every day, Amazon ads processes billions of real time decisions, optimizing ad performance across a $31,000,000,000 advertising ecosystem.

结果是，广告活动运行速度提升30%，并实现规模化、可衡量的业务影响。

The result is campaigns that run 30% faster and deliver measurable business impact at scale.

而这正是亚马逊自身实现增长的方式。

And this is how Amazon itself drives growth.

他们的智能AI将营销从一个资源密集型流程转变为一个智能自主系统，最大化投资回报率，并让营销人员专注于创意与战略。

Their agentic AI transforms marketing from a resource heavy process into an intelligent autonomous system that maximizes ROI and empowers marketers to focus on creativity and strategy.

亚马逊广告正在证明，人工智能驱动的广告不仅是未来，更是新的竞争优势。

Amazon Ads is proving that AI driven advertising isn't just the future, it's the new competitive advantage.

更棒的是，每一家企业都可以应用亚马逊内部完善的同一创新蓝图。

And better yet, every enterprise can apply the same innovation playbook that Amazon perfected in house.

前往 aws.com/ai/rstory 了解亚马逊广告的故事。

See the Amazon ad story at aws.comai/rstory.

网址是 aws.com/ai/rstory。

That's aws.com/ai/rstory.

初创公司行动迅速。

Startups move fast.

借助人工智能，他们交付速度更快，并更早吸引企业客户。

And with AI, they're shipping even faster and attracting enterprise buyers sooner.

但大单带来了更严格的安全与合规要求。

But big deals bring even bigger security and compliance requirements.

SOC 2 并不总是足够。

A SOC two isn't always enough.

适当的安全措施可以促成交易，也可能导致交易失败。

The right kind of security can make a deal or break it.

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Vanta's AI and automation make it easy to get big deals ready in days.

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And Vanta continuously monitors your compliance so future deals are never blocked.

此外，Vanta 会随着您的发展而扩展，并在每一步都提供及时的支持。

Plus Vanta scales with you, backed by support that's there when you need it every step of the way.

随着人工智能改变法规和买家的期望，Vanta 深知所需条件及时机，并已打造了最快、最简便的路径来帮助您达成目标。

With AI changing regulations and buyers' expectations, Vanta knows what's needed and when, and they've built the fastest, easiest path to help you get there.

因此，认真的初创公司都会早早通过 Vanta 实现安全合规。

That's why serious startups get secure early with Vanta.

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Our listeners get $1,000 off at vanta.com/billionaires.

访问 vanta.com/billionaires，立享 1000 美元优惠。

That's vanta.com/billionaires for $1,000 off.

新的一年到了，这是实现你一直梦想创业的最佳时机。

It's the new year, which means that it's the best time to finally start the business you've been dreaming about.

就在几年前，我启动了自己的电子商务业务，而Shopify正是我起步时需要的工具。

Just a couple years ago, I launched my own e commerce business and Shopify was exactly the tool I needed to get started.

尽管许多人不断推迟梦想，等到明年再行动，但我在这里告诉你，现在就是抓住眼前机遇的时候。

While many people continually push off their dreams until the next year, I am here to tell you that now is the time to capitalize on the opportunities right in front of you.

Shopify为你提供了在线和线下销售所需的一切。

Shopify gives you everything you need to sell online and in person.

数百万创业者，包括我自己，都已经从普通家庭用户转型为刚刚起步的生意人。

Millions of entrepreneurs, including myself, have already made this leap from household names to first time business owners just getting started.

你可以从数百个精美的模板中选择，并自定义它们，同时使用其内置的AI工具撰写产品描述或编辑产品图片。

Choose from hundreds of beautiful templates that you can customize and use their built in AI tools to write product descriptions or edit product photos.

随着你的成长，Shopify也会在每一步与你共同成长。

And as you grow, Shopify grows with you every step of the way.

在2026年，别再等待，立即用Shopify开始销售吧。

In 2026, stop waiting and start selling with Shopify.

立即注册每月1美元的试用版，今天就开始在shopify.com/wsb上销售。

Sign up for your $1 per month trial and start selling today at shopify.com/wsb.

前往shopify.com/wsb。

Go to shopify.com/wsb.

就是shopify.com/wsb。

That's shopify.com/wsb.

今年，让Shopify陪伴你聆听你的第一个声音。

Hear your first this new year with Shopify by your side.

好的。

Alright.

回到节目。

Back to the show.

我还想强调一下我与霍华德·马克斯对话中的另一个部分，它对我产生了特别深刻的影响。

I also wanna highlight another part of my conversation with Howard Marks that had a particularly powerful impact on me.

在这个片段中，他谈到了加密货币，以及他与儿子安德鲁关于比特币的争论。

In this clip, he talks about cryptocurrencies and the debates he'd been having with his son, Andrew, about Bitcoin.

和他父亲一样，安德鲁也是一名基金经理，只不过他更倾向于接受高科技股票和加密货币等新兴事物。

Like his father, Andrew is also a money manager, albeit one who's, much more open to high-tech stocks and cryptocurrencies and and the like.

总之，以下是霍华德对此的看法。

In any case, here's what Howard had to say about it.

嗯，我们之间的讨论，也就是我和安德鲁的讨论，主要焦点之一就是加密货币。

Well, our discussions, that is, the discussions I had with Andrew, really, one of the main focuses was cryptocurrency.

因为在2017年，也就是加密货币引起大多数人关注的那一年，比特币其实早在七、八年前就已经诞生了。

Because in 2017, which was the year that cryptocurrency came to most people's attention, Bitcoin had been created seven or eight years before that.

但正是在那一年，比特币的价格从一千美元飙升至两万美元，人们才开始热议它。

But that's the year that Bitcoin went from a thousand to 20,000, and that's the year that people started talking about it.

而我的立场非常负面。

And I came out very negative.

我说：这根本就是空洞无物。

I said there's no there there.

它没有任何实质内容。

There's no substance to it.

它不会产生现金流。

It doesn't produce cash flow.

它无法被内在估值，这意味着你无法明智地投资它。

It can't be valued intrinsically, which means that it you can invest it intelligently.

安德鲁最大的目标之一就是向我指出，这其实是一种条件反射式的怀疑。

And, you know, one of Andrew's greatest goals was to point out to me that that had been an example of knee jerk skepticism.

过去，我在反对新事物上赚了很多钱，无论是1987年的投资组合保险，还是1999年毫无业务基础的电商初创公司。

I've made a lot of money in weighing against the new new thing in the past, whether it was portfolio insurance in 1987 or ecommerce startups with no business in 1999.

而我们现在就处在这种情况。

And here we were.

这又是另一件新事物。

This is another new thing.

所以，你知道，我已经形成了习惯。

And so, you know, I've been habitual.

这种做法一直很成功。

That's been successful.

就是这样。

That's it.

这种组合会形成习惯。

That combination produces habits.

所以我反对比特币。

So I came out against Bitcoin.

我可能在它大约6000美元时就反对了，然后它涨到了20000美元，接着又回落到6000美元。

And I probably did it when it was about 6,000, then it went to 20,000, then it went back to 6,000.

它在2018年、2019年一直到2020年都停留在这个水平。

And it stayed there through '18 and '19 and into '20.

到2020年4月，我想它还是6000美元。

And by April '20, it was, I think, still 6,000.

但安德鲁以最温柔的方式告诉我。

But what Andrew said to me is that in the most loving possible way.

你根本不懂你在说什么。

You don't know what you're talking about.

你对加密货币一无所知。

You don't know anything about cryptocurrency.

你不懂供需关系。

You don't know the supply demand case.

你不懂这项技术。

You don't know the technology.

你不懂它的用途。

You don't know the usage.

你不能对那些你根本不了解的事情做出本能的怀疑反应。

And you can't come out as a knee jerk skeptic about things you don't know about.

为了在任何领域做出更优秀的投资决策，你必须比大多数人懂得更多。

And in order to make superior investment decisions in any field, you have to know more than most other people.

你显然不属于那些拥有专业知识的人。

You certainly are not in the category of the people with superior knowledge.

我只有五十年的广泛投资经验，但我对加密货币的了解并不比其他人多。

All I had was fifty years of investment experience, generalized, but I didn't know anything about crypto that anybody else didn't know.

所以他在这方面是对的。

So he was right about that.

这基本上提醒了谦逊的重要性。

And So it's a reminder of the importance of humility, basically.

以及要成为一个持续学习的机器，承认自己

And and of being a continuous learning machine and saying there

还有许多我不

are things I

了解的事情。

don't know about.

你知道，我现在每年写四份备忘录。

You know, I write about four memos a year now.

在2020年疫情期间，我写了大约13份。

And in 2020, with the pandemic, I wrote, I think, 13.

在三月和四月需求迫切时，我写了很多。

I wrote a lot in March, April when it was needed.

但在夏天，当事情稍微平静下来时，我写了两份我很喜欢的备忘录，分别是《不确定性》和《不确定性二》，但反响不大。

But in the summer, when things were quieting down a bit, I wrote two memos that I really like that didn't get much response, uncertainty and uncertainty two.

智力谦逊的重要性。

The importance of intellectual humility.

什么是智力谦逊？

What is intellectual humility?

它意味着对方可能是对的，并且愿意接受这一点。

It means the other guy could be right and accepting that.

我认为这对我们都非常重要。

And I think that's very important for all of us.

关于自信，我曾经写过一份备忘录，我写过关于一切的备忘录。

And confidence, I once wrote a memo, I've written memo on everything.

但自信是非常重要的，因为你需要一些自信，否则你无法坚持自己的立场，尤其是在它们与你相悖的时候。

But confidence is a very important thing because you need some of it or else you can never hold your positions, especially when they go against you.

但你也不该过于自信，以至于无视证据一意孤行，或陷入傲慢，飞得离太阳太近。

But you shouldn't have so much confidence that you ride them all the way down against the evidence or that you are guilty of hubris and you fly too close to the sun.

所以你必须保持平衡。

So you have to balance it.

但我认为，重要的是不要以为自己无所不知，也不要认为别人总是错的。

But I think that it's very important to not think you know everything and to not think the other guy's always wrong.

所以我认为你是对的。

So I think that you're right.

最重要的一件事是清楚自己不知道什么。

One of the most important things is to know what you don't know.

肮脏的哈里说过，一个人必须了解自己的局限。

Dirty Harry said a man has to know his limitations.

我对加密货币没有强烈观点，因为我觉得自己了解得不够，但我正在努力学习。

So I don't have a strong opinion on crypto because I don't think I know enough, but I'm trying to learn.

对我来说，这里真正有价值的根本不是关于比特币的争论。

For me, what's really valuable here is not actually the debate about Bitcoin.

就我个人而言，我对加密货币完全持中立态度。

Personally, I'm totally agnostic about cryptocurrencies.

我不知道它们接下来是涨还是跌，也不确定其他人是否知道。

I I have no idea whether they're gonna go up from here or down from here, and I'm not really sure anyone else knows either.

但真正有启发性的是霍华德的心态。

What's really instructive, though, is Howard's mindset.

想想这里的谦逊吧，他愿意承认自己对比特币的未来了解不足，无法做出判断。

Just think about the humility here, the willingness to acknowledge that he doesn't know enough to make a call about the future of Bitcoin.

他对自己的偏见保持警惕，过去他在应对各种潮流和泡沫时取得的成功，让他默认这次也是其中之一，从而产生了这种本能的怀疑。

And his wariness of his own biases, the fact that that he's been successful in in weighing against all of these these fads and bubbles in the past made him just assume that this was another of them and have this kind of knee jerk skepticism.

但这并不意味着他的本能怀疑是错的。

And that's not to say that his knee jerk skepticism was wrong.

它可能会被证明是正确的。

It might turn out to be right.

但我认为这里最有帮助的是霍华德愿意向自己的儿子学习，他意识到儿子可能懂一些他不懂的东西。

But I think what's so helpful here is Howard's openness to learning from his own son, his sense that his son understands things that maybe he doesn't understand.

这让他做出了一个非常美好的论断：你必须接受对方可能是对的，不要以为自己无所不知。

And this leads him to this really beautiful assertion that you have to accept that the other guy could be right and not think that you know everything.

这一直是我对投资感到着迷的地方：你可能会遇到两个极其聪明的人，却对同一件事持有完全相反的看法。

And this is something that's always fascinated me about investing is that you could have two utterly brilliant people who disagree with each other totally about the same thing.

比如，这里你有比尔·米勒，他对比特币极度看涨，认为它将是一项非凡的投资，并且曾非常雄辩地表达过这一观点。

And so here, for example, you have you have Bill Miller who's absolutely bullish about Bitcoin, who feels like it's gonna be an amazing investment and has talked very eloquently.

如果你回看我在播客中与他的那期对话，我们会详细讨论他为何如此喜爱比特币。

If you if you check back in the episode that I did with him on the podcast, we talked in some detail about why he loves Bitcoin.

而像巴菲特这样的人却说它是‘老鼠药’。

And then you have people like Buffett among us saying that it's rat poison.

这对我来说真的非常有趣。

And that's just really interesting to me.

巴菲特认为它是老鼠药，这一点并没有让米勒觉得自己错了。

The fact that Buffett among her think it's rat poison doesn't lead Miller to think that he's wrong.

他只是说：看吧。

He just says, look.

他们根本没有这个领域的专业知识，让我自己冷静地研究，亲自查看证据。

They don't have any domain expertise, and let me study it dispassionately and look at the evidence for myself.

同样地，霍华德·马克斯说：

And here again, have Howard Marks saying, look.

我对加密货币没有强烈看法，因为我认为自己了解得不够。

I don't have a strong opinion about crypto because I don't think that I know enough.

然后是他那句我觉得非常棒的结语：但我正在努力学习。

And then that final line, which I think is wonderful, where he says, but I'm trying to learn.

这提醒了我们芒格对巴菲特说过的一件非常重要的事：他是个持续学习的机器。

And that's a reminder of a really important thing that that Munger said about Buffett, which is that he's a continuous learning machine.

我认为，巴菲特的一大优势就在于他能够学会新技能。

And I think that's one of the one of the great strengths of Buffett is that he managed to learn new tricks.

对吧？

Right?

他在声称永远不会投资科技股之后，却投资了苹果，而这成了他一生中利润最高的投资。

He he after saying that he would never invest in tech, he invested in Apple, which turned out to be the the most profitable investment of his lifetime.

他还进行了国际投资。

He made international investments.

他投资了铁路。

He invested in railroads.

他持续学习。

He kept learning.

他不断改变。

He kept changing.

他持续发展。

He kept developing.

所以我认为，关于比特币的整个讨论，其实根本不是关于比特币本身。

And so I think this whole discussion of Bitcoin, it's not really about Bitcoin at all.

而是关于拥有一种能够保护你免受自身傲慢和过度自信影响的心态。

It's really about having the mindset that protects you against your own hubris and your own overconfidence.

它说的是，无论你多么聪明、多么博学，你都需要接受这样一个事实：对方可能是对的。

It it's saying, however smart you are, however much you know, you need to accept the fact that the other guy might be right.

同时，霍华德还提出了一个非常重要的注意事项，那就是你也必须拥有坚定的信念。

And then at the same time, there's this really important caveat, which Howard makes, which is you also have to have some firm convictions.

你也确实有时必须做出坚定的押注。

You also do have to you do have to make a firm bet sometimes.

所以就像投资中的大多数事情一样，这并不容易。

And so like most things in investing, it's it's not easy.

这有点矛盾。

It's kind of contradictory.

对吧？

Right?

正如俗话所说，你需要持有强烈的意见，但要持之以轻。

As the saying goes, you need to have strong opinions lightly held.

我只是觉得，看看像霍华德这样的人的心态，真的非常有帮助。

And I just I find it incredibly helpful to look at the mindset of someone like Howard.

这让我想到，我在生活中应该更谨慎一些。

And it makes me think I should tread a little bit more lightly in life.

我可能在大多数事情上都是错的。

I'm probably wrong about most things.

因此，我至少应该尽可能意识到自己的偏见，努力发现自己的盲点，同时对他人观点保持开放态度。

And so I should at least be aware of my own biases as much as I can, trying to look for my own blind spots and and also open to other people's views.

我认为这种态度不仅在投资中非常有帮助，在政治乃至生活的许多其他领域也是如此。

And I I think that's such a helpful attitude, just in investing, but in politics or so many other areas of life.

我只是不想变得教条。

I just don't wanna be dogmatic.

我想接受自己很可能犯错的事实，至少应该尊重他人的观点。

I wanna accept the fact that I might well be wrong and that at the very least, I should have respect for the other person's view.

最后，我想播放一段我去年最喜爱的播客节目中的稍长片段。

Finally, I wanna play you a slightly longer excerpt from one of my favorite episodes of the last year.

这段内容来自我与弗朗索瓦·罗孔的对话，他是一位来自蒙特利尔的杰出投资者。

This is from my conversation with Francois Rochon, a great investor based in Montreal.

在过去三十年里，他的收益远超市场，但他不仅仅是一位出色的选股者。

He's beaten the market by a mile over the last thirty years, but he's not just a superb stock picker.

他还是一个在商业和生活中极其逻辑严谨、理性且通情达理的思想者。

He's also an exceptionally logical, rational, and reasonable thinker about business and life.

我喜欢这个片段的原因是，弗朗索瓦以一种极其理性且令人信服的方式，阐述了为什么尽管当今世界面临诸多挑战，我们仍应对未来保持乐观。

What I love about this clip is that Francois makes a wonderfully rational, compelling case for why we should be optimistic about the future despite all of the challenges we face in the world today.

接下来是我们关于为何你我应当期待人类、企业盈利以及股市将迎来巨大进步与发展的讨论。

Here's our discussion about why you and I should expect great improvements and advances for the human race, for corporate earnings, and for the stock market.

弗朗索瓦，在你离开之前，我想问你一件事：我觉得你发现了一件非常重要、但很多人尚未领悟的事情——多年来，你在致股东的信中反复强调坚定不移的乐观主义的重要性。

One thing, Francois, before I let you go that I wanted to ask you about that I I feel like you've figured something out that's really important that a lot of people haven't figured out, which is you write a lot in your letters over the years about the importance of unwavering optimism.

我认为这是一个非常有趣的洞见。

And I think it's a really interesting insight.

我们正处在一个非常艰难的时期：通胀来袭，市场持续下跌，人们担忧经济衰退，乌克兰战争持续，诸如此类的问题层出不穷。

Here we are in this very difficult period where we're getting hit with inflation and the market has been kind of melting down and there are fears of recession and there's war in Ukraine and the like.

在我看来，你的一项秘密武器，也是约翰·坦普尔顿爵士所拥有的，就是你始终如一的乐观态度。

And it seems to me that one of your secret weapons is one that Sir John Templeton also had, which is that you're an unwavering optimist.

我想知道，你能否谈谈，为什么你如此乐观？为什么你对所谓的自由企业世界抱有如此坚定的信心？

And I I wonder if you could talk about why you are and why you have this kind of confidence in what you call the world of free enterprise.

是的。

Yes.

你说得对。

You're right.

我认为没有任何伟大的成就建立在悲观之上。

I think nothing was ever built on pessimism.

我認為在恐懼中永遠做不出明智的決定。

I think you never make wise decision with fears.

我認為樂觀是成功的關鍵要素之一。

I think optimism is an important ingredient to success.

並非唯一的要素，但是一個重要的要素。

Not the only ingredient, but one important ingredient.

如果我研究人類歷史，回溯到很多很多年前，我認為唯一的結論是，我們對過去幾個世紀所取得的巨大進步感到驚嘆是理所當然的。

I would say if you study human history and you go back many, many years in the past, I think the only conclusion is that you cannot be not amazed of how much we've improved over the last centuries.

我的意思是，僅僅從技術角度看，我們所取得的變化就令人難以置信。

I mean, just in terms of technology, it's incredible, the changes that we've made.

你必須理解這些進步的源泉是什麼。

And you have to understand what is the fountainhead of those improvements.

而这一切源于人类的思维。

And it's the human mind.

人类不断发明、创造，总是以非常缓慢的方式寻找更好的做事方法，当然这不是线性的。

It's just inventing things, creating things, finding ways of doing things better always, very slowly, and not in a linear fashion, of course.

期间有艰难的时期，也有更好的时期。

There are some tough periods and some better periods.

但从长时间来看，进步一直相当稳定且令人印象深刻。

But over a long period of time, the improvement has been quite steady and quite impressive.

我的意思是，上个世纪，生活水平每二十五年左右可能翻了一番，这简直不可思议。

I mean, the standard of living has probably doubled every twenty five years in the last century, which is incredible.

因此，人们担心气候变化，他们有理由担心。

And so people worry about climate change and their right to to be worried.

他们担心我们会耗尽石油，不得不寻找替代能源。

And they worry that we won't have any oil, and we'll have to find alternate energy.

我认为他们也是对的。

And I think they're right too.

不一定是我们会用完所有石油，但我认为我们确实需要找到更好的能源来源。

Not necessarily that we'll we won't have any oil left, but I think we do have to find better sources of energy.

但带来这些变化和改进的——无论是能源还是应对气候变化——都将来自思想和人类的智慧。

But what will bring those changes, those improvements, either for energy or fixing climate changes, will come from ideas and the human mind.

如果你仔细想想，上个世纪那些伟大的进步都源于思想。

And if you think about it, the older great progresses of the last century came from idea.

实际上，我们的环境、自然和人性并没有真正改变。

Nothing really has changed our environment, nature and the human nature.

但我们总能找到改进的方法，因为我们人类有一种永不满足的驱动力。

But we find ways to always improve things because we have this drive as human beings of never being satisfied.

我们总是希望改善自己的处境。

We will always want to improve our situation.

我认为这种驱动力非常强大，让我相信事情总会变得更好。

And I think this drive is very powerful and gives me the feeling that things will always improve.

当然，也会有艰难的时期。

There'll be, you know, there'll be tough periods.

会有，你知道的，危机和灾难。

There'll be, you know, crisis and catastrophes.

我接受这一点。

I accept that.

我已经接受了这一点三十年了。

And I've been accepting that for thirty years.

你知道，我经历过经济衰退。

You know, I've seen the recessions.

我见过恐怖袭击。

I've seen terrorist attacks.

我见过，你知道的，许多国家的诸多危机。

I've seen, you know, a lot of crisis in many countries.

但最终，我认为人类总是向前发展的。

But in the end, I think the human race always advances forward.

正确的态度是保持乐观，相信我们会找到解决所有问题的办法。

And the right approach is to be optimistic, that we'll find solutions to all of our problems.

我们只需要专心致志，但我相信，生存基因是我们最强大、最重要的基因。

Just we have to put our minds to it, but I'm confident that the survival gene, this is probably the most the strongest gene we have.

我们渴望生存。

We wanna survive.

我们希望向前发展。

We want to move forward.

这是推动人类进步的极其强大的动力。

Is a very, very great fuel for human investment.

而且我非常乐观地认为，这种趋势会持续下去。

And pretty optimistic it's gonna continue.

所以我认为，在未来，我不知道是不是五十年左右，但只要我还活着，我们的生活水平一定会提高300%，我们会比今天过得更好。

So I would say that in the next, I don't know if it's gonna be around fifty years, but I'm pretty sure if I'm around, our standard of living will have increased by 300%, then we'll live even better than we're living today.

我非常有信心，我们会找到解决所有重大问题的方法，比如气候变化和通货膨胀。

And I'm pretty confident that we'll find solutions to all our big problems like climate changes and inflation.

我认为，弗朗索瓦，我欣赏你的一点是，你的乐观并非一种天真的、情绪化的冲动，盲目地渗透一切。

I think part of what I like, Francois, is that your optimism isn't a naive temperamental impulse that just infuses everything.

这在很大程度上建立在对过去数据的驱动性认知之上。

It's built very much on a kind of data driven knowledge of the past.

我记得，比如在你的一封信中，你提到查尔斯·狄更斯的《双城记》，并说自19世纪50年代出版以来，全球极端贫困人口的比例已从87%下降到今天的不到10%。

And so I remember, for example, reading in one of your letters, you you talked about A Tale of Two Sitties by Charles Dickens, and you said that since its publication in the eighteen fifties, the percentage of people living in extreme poverty in the world has fallen from eighty seven percent to less than ten percent today.

你还提到，自1859年该书出版以来，人均生活水平已提高了25倍以上。

And you mentioned that the average standard of living has increased by a factor of more than 25 times since the book was published in 1859.

所以当你看到这些时，你会觉得这并非天真。

So you look at that and you think, this isn't naive.

这些确实发生了。

This has happened.

这就是我们的历史。

This is our history.

想想自那本书出版以来的这160年里，我们经历过的所有可怕事情。

Think of all the terrible things that we've been through in that last hundred and sixty years since that book came out.

同样，我还记得你最初在2008至2009年金融危机期间整理的一张非凡表格，后来在2020年3月新冠疫情初期又重新发布或更新了这张表，其中列出了过去大约六十年间发生的14次重大经济回调，随后都伴随着巨大的反弹。

And likewise, there's an extraordinary table that I think you originally drew up during the two thousand and eight, two thousand and nine financial crisis, and then published again or updated in March 2020 the initial height of the COVID pandemic, where you listed 14, I think, major corrections over the last, I think, sixty or so years, followed by these massive rebounds.

这让我感到非常震撼。

And it was very striking to me.

同样，这是一种以数据为依据的乐观理由。

Again, it's a data driven reason for optimism.

例如，你提到在1973到1974年间，市场下跌了约48%，随后在接下来的五年左右出现了106%的反弹。

You you listed, for example, in, I think, 1973 to '74, the market fell something like 48% and then was followed by a 106% gain over the next five years or so.

这种模式似乎一再发生。

And this process seems to have happened again and again.

你能谈谈这种感觉吗？——太阳照常升起。

Can you talk about that sense of just that the sun also rises?

对吧？

Right?

我们正经历一段艰难时期，但当你从历史的角度再次回望时，太阳依然照常升起。

That here we are going through a difficult period, and yet when you look back historically again and again, the sun also rises.

是的。

Yes.

这就是研究人类历史所得到的教训。

It's the lesson that if you study human history, that's the lesson.

一百五十年前，亚伯拉罕·林肯就说过。

And Abraham Lincoln said a hundred and fifty years ago.

这一切终将过去。

So this too shall pass away.

然后格雷厄姆说，这些话概括了整个人类历史。

And then Graham said that these phrases summarize the whole human history.

事物会过去，危机会过去，最终，人类始终在不断改善并向前发展。

Things passed, crisis passed, and in the end, the human race continues to always improve things and move forward.

我对公司也是如此看待。

And I would say same thing with companies.

就像我们在采访开始时谈到的，公司平均每年盈利增长7%，并提供2%的股息。

Like we talked at the beginning of the interview, companies grow their earnings 7% yearly and give a 2% dividend on average.

因此，股票的回报率大约是8%到9%。

So that's a eight or 9% return for stock.

因此，当股价下跌百分之三十、四十甚至百分之五十时，有充分的理由相信，在五到七年内，它们将创下新高，因为收益持续增长。

So, of course, when they go down thirty, forty, 50%, there's every reason to believe that within five or six or seven years, they'll make new records just because earnings continue to increase.

每年收益增长7%，意味着美国的总收益每十年翻一番。

Increasing earnings at 7% annually, double the whole earning in the in The US every ten years.

因此，标普500指数或道琼斯工业平均指数每十年价值翻倍是合乎逻辑的，因为过去十年的收益已经翻倍。

So it makes sense that every ten years, the S and P 500 or the Dow Jones Industrial Average doubles in value because earnings have doubled over the last ten years.

当然，经济衰退会发生，收益在衰退期间会下降。

And there'll be a recession, of course, and earnings will go without recession.

但它们会反弹，最终创下新高。

But they'll rebound, and, eventually, they'll make new records.

所以我认为，理解这一点非常令人安心，因为你知道，虽然会有艰难时期，但只要你有耐心，就会得到回报。

So I think that's very reassuring to understand that because, you know, that there'll be tough times, but if you're patient, you'll be rewarded.

这很美好，因为它意味着你必须理解这里发挥作用的基本力量，比如内在价值增长的力量、生产率提升的力量，以及人类智慧解决问题的力量。

It's beautiful because it means you have to understand these fundamental forces that are at play here, like the power of intrinsic value growing, the power of productivity increasing, the power of human ingenuity to solve problems.

但一旦你理解了这些，你就不需要天真到盲目乐观了，我猜。

But once you kind of understand that, you don't really need to be that naive to be optimistic, I I suspect.

不。

No.

我不认为我天真。

I don't think I'm naive.

我只是现实。

I'm just realistic.

这正是我们人类社会的本质。

That's just the nature of our human society.

而且确实存在一些非常糟糕的事情。

And there are some very bad things.

我完全同意。

I couldn't agree more.

我的意思是，你所读到的关于世界各地发生的悲剧和可怕事情。

I mean, for everything you read about tragedies and terrible things that happen all over the world.

但同样也有伟大的成就，我们文明多年来所建立的伟大成果。

But there's also great, great things, great accomplishment, great things that our civilization have built over the years.

你也必须看看这一点。

And you have to look at that also.

两者都很重要。

Both are important.

最终，我认为总体而言，人类历史上产生的善远多于恶。

And in the end, I think the overall balance is that more good have come out of the human history than bad.

我非常喜欢弗朗索瓦关于为何对人类未来、企业以及股票市场保持乐观是理性且合乎逻辑的这一观点。

I love this argument that Francois makes about why it's rational and logical to be an optimist about the future of the human race and about the future of corporations and the future of the stock market.

当你每天关注新闻时，很容易变得悲观，认为世界正走向毁灭。

When you follow the news day to day, it's really easy to become a pessimist and to think that the world is going to hell in a handbasket.

我必须承认，作为一名记者，我特别容易陷入这种思维方式，因为记者天生更容易关注世界的问题而非其积极面。

I have to confess, as a journalist, I'm particularly prone to this type of thinking because journalists tend to be drawn naturally to what's wrong with the world rather than what's right.

此外，由于我曾编辑过《时代》杂志的国际版，我可以告诉你，负面新闻通常更具故事性，消费者也更被坏消息吸引。

Plus, for one thing, having edited magazines like the international editions of Time magazine, I can tell you it's it's usually a better story, and consumers are drawn to bad news.

而且我认为，如今人们普遍对商业和资本主义持批评态度，这从《亿万》《继承之战》这类剧集中就能看出来。

And I think also there's there's a tendency these days to be very critical of business and capitalism, which you see from these shows like Billions and Succession and the like.

所以我特别欣赏弗朗索瓦对未来的信念，以及他对自由企业作为推动更美好未来动力的信念。

So I particularly like Francois' faith in the future and his faith in free enterprise to be a a driver of a better future.

我认为，我们所有人都需要这种信心，相信事情会变得更好。

And I think it's really important for all of us to have this kind of confidence that things are going to get better.

尤其是对那些容易陷入一切都在崩溃的信念的年轻人来说。

And particularly, I think for young people who get sucked into believing that everything is falling apart.

我经常和我的孩子们，21岁的玛德琳和24岁的亨利，进行这样的讨论。

I have these discussions a lot with my children, Madeleine, who's 21, and Henry, who's 24.

我认为这对他们来说真的很令人沮丧。

And I think it's really depressing for them.

他们阅读新闻，看到关于环境、政治动荡以及与中国可能爆发战争或当前乌克兰战争的种种严峻警告，很难不被世界前景的悲观情绪所淹没。

They read the news, and they look at all of these dire warnings about the environment and political mayhem and impending war with China or the current war in Ukraine, and it's really difficult for them not to get flooded by how depressing the outlook for the world seems.

在我看来，专注于弗朗索瓦这样的理性分析，是非常有帮助的。

And it strikes me as an incredibly helpful thing to focus on the rational analysis of someone like Francois.

前几天，我特意和女儿玛德琳一起仔细梳理了他的论点，试图告诉她：一切并未失去希望。

And so I found myself really going through his argument with my daughter, Madeleine, the other day trying to say, look, All is not lost.

一切都会好起来的。

Things are gonna be okay.

你希望依靠人类的创造力来解决许多这些问题，但这并不意味着你要盲目乐观。

You wanna bank on human ingenuity to solve a lot of these problems, and that's not to be a Pollyanna.

这并不是说这些问题不存在。

It's not to say that these problems don't exist.

但我认为，对我们来说，相信创新、自由企业以及人类的创造力能够应对社会中一些最严峻的问题，是非常重要的。

But it's it's really important for us, I think, to have some faith in the power of innovation, free enterprise, human ingenuity to tackle some of the biggest problems in society.

但也许我太天真了。

But maybe I'm delusional.

我不知道。

I don't know.

但我并不这么认为，我当然不觉得弗朗索瓦是天真的。

But I don't think so, and I I certainly don't think that Francois is delusional.

这也让我想起了沃伦·巴菲特过去曾谈到过的一件非常重要的事。

This also reminds me of something very important that Warren Buffett has talked about in the past.

沃伦曾在一些关键时刻公开表态，当时人们正对未来看法悲观，他提供了大量有价值的数据，提醒人们：别急着下结论，看看历史上实际发生了什么。

Warren famously has has come out at some really key moments when people were losing confidence in the future and has offered some really valuable data to say, look, not so fast, focus on what's actually happened through history.

例如，在2008年10月，市场暴跌、金融体系濒临崩溃之际，沃伦在《纽约时报》发表了一篇社论，解释他为何买入美国股票，并指出，对美国众多稳健企业长期繁荣前景的担忧毫无道理，正如他所说。

So for example, in October 2008, when the market was just crashing and the financial system was in danger of collapse, Warren wrote a piece for The New York Times, an op ed article, explaining why he was buying American stocks and why he thought that fears regarding the long term prosperity of the nation's many sound companies makes no sense, as he put it.

这就是巴菲特所写的内容。

And so this is what what Buffet wrote.

他说：从长期来看，股市的消息将会是积极的。

He said, over the long term, the stock market news will be good.

他还补充道：在二十世纪，美国经历了两次世界大战以及其他创伤性且代价高昂的军事冲突、大萧条、十多次经济衰退和金融恐慌、石油危机、流感大流行，以及一位 disgraced 总统的辞职。

And then he added, in the twentieth century, The United States endured two world wars and other traumatic and expensive military conflicts, the depression, a dozen or so recessions and financial panics, oil shocks, a flu pandemic, and the resignation of a disgraced president.

然而，道琼斯指数却从66点上涨到了11,497点。

Yet the Dow rose from 66 to 11,497.

这一点值得重复强调。

That's worth repeating.

在一个世纪的全面混乱中，道琼斯指数从66点上涨到了11,497点。

The Dow rose from '66 to 11/1997, over a century of just total mayhem.

对吧？

Right?

我的意思是，这真是非同寻常。

I mean, it's an extraordinary thing.

巴菲特指出的另一点我认为非常有帮助，他说坏消息是投资者最好的朋友。

The the other thing that Buffett pointed out that I think is incredibly helpful is he said that bad news is an investor's best friend.

他说，这让你能够以打折的价格买入美国未来的部分收益。

And he said, it lets you buy a slice of America's future at a markdown price.

正如他所解释的，这在大萧条时期显然成立。

And that was clearly true during the Great Depression, as he explained.

在第二次世界大战期间也是如此。

It was true during World War two.

在全球金融危机期间，以及在新冠疫情初期的那几个月里，情况同样如此。

And it was true once again during the global financial crisis, and it was true again in those early months of of COVID.

同样，我回顾了巴菲特在2016年初发布的年报，他在其中谈到了美国生活水平的提高。

And likewise, I looked back at the annual report that Buffett had published at the start of 2016 where he talked about the rise in standards of living in The US.