RWH022：亿万富翁大师课与雷·达里奥

在许多情况下，他们还要兼顾家庭。

They they have, in many cases, families that they're juggling.

你是如何发现，对于你在桥水公司所合作的人，以及你自己，像这样的人能够将冥想融入生活，从而允许自己安静地坐下来？因为这在某种程度上与追求、追逐和努力实现目标的整个商业逻辑背道而驰。

How how have you found it possible for the people you work with at Bridgewater and for yourself, how has it been possible for that sort of person to weave meditation into their life so that they give themselves permission to sit quietly, that they because it's so antithetical in a way to to the whole business of getting and chasing and trying to achieve something.

我会告诉人们，如果你的一天非常忙碌，你就更需要冥想。

Well, I tell people, like, if you have a really busy day, you need to meditate more.

因为实际上，这并不会花太多时间。

Because what happens is it's not really that much time.

对吧？

Right?

我的意思是，这会让你处于一种一切变得更轻松、更好的状态，从而做出更好的决定。

I mean and and and it puts you in that position that everything is easier and better So you make better decisions.

你能做更多事情，而且也不会产生压力。

You can do more, and it also, doesn't produce stress.

它能缓解压力。

It'll relieve relieve stress.

所以这样做要有效得多。

So it's it's just so much more effective to do that.

每一个坚持足够长时间、真正进入状态的人都能理解。

And everybody who has done it for an adequate amount of time so that they get into it gets it.

我的意思是，就像我跟人们说的，当你坐下来冥想时，好吧，就定十分钟。

What I mean is, as I explained to people, when you sit down and you meditate, okay, make it ten minutes.

我知道。

I know.

做十分钟，而不是二十分钟。

Do it ten minutes rather than, you know, twenty minutes.

好的。

Okay.

但请坚持做十分钟。

But give do it ten minutes.

他们在初期的体验中发现的是。

What they find in that experience is in the early stages.

他们的思绪在脑海中不断闪现。

Their thoughts are running through their mind.

我能起来走走吗？

Can I get up and go?

所有这些情况都是如此。

And all of that.

这必须让你意识到你需要冥想。

And that must give you the message that you need to meditate.

你需要冥想。

You need to meditate.

这正是它的体现。

That exemplifies it.

你无法给自己十到二十分钟来做这件事，这合理吗？

Is it logical that you cannot give yourself the ten or twenty minutes to do that?

一旦你开始这么做并意识到自己确实需要，你就会体验到这种愉悦的感受。

And once you start to do that and you realize you do, then you encounter this, you know, pleasurable experience.

当你成为一个冥想者时，几乎就是这样。

It's almost while you're a meditator.

所以你明白了，这很愉快，等等，你开始以完全不同的方式看待事物。

So you you understand that, ah, it's pleasurable and so on, and you start to see things very differently.

这简直就像有一个世界，一切都在外面。

It's almost like there's this world of everything's out there.

天哪。

Oh my god.

这是一个充满一切的世界。

It's such a world of everything.

而当你进入另一个世界时，就像进入虚无，什么都没有。

And then when you go into this other world, it's like going into the void, and there's nothing.

但那是一个如此浩瀚的世界。

But that is such an enormous world.

它几乎和充满一切的世界一样浩瀚，那是一个非常美妙的所在。

It's almost like it's as enormous as the world of everythings, and it's it's a wonderful place to, you know, to be.

所以我试着向人们解释，而他们一旦能克服急躁，就都能明白。

So I try to explain to people, and invariably, they get it once they can get past the impatience.

你知道，我每天都会去冥想，我能感受到自己情绪上的变化。

And and you know probably, I I know, that in I go in a day and I could tell the difference of how I feel.

所以我会说，哦，我需要去冥想一下。

So I will say, oh, I need to go meditate.

我只需要花一点时间冥想，然后出来时几乎就像变了一个人。

And I could just take a little bit of time and I meditate, and I come out of it as almost a different person.

你是每天冥想两次，还是一天一次？

And do you do it twice a day or once a day most days?

大多数时候我一天会冥想两次，但我并不觉得必须严格遵守某个时间表。

Most days, I'll do it twice a day, but it's, but I don't feel compelled like I have to stick to some schedule.

我会根据自己的情绪来决定，通常会在早餐前和晚餐前各冥想一会儿，但我随时都可以做，因为这感觉很好，对我有帮助。

I find my mood, and I usually will do it a little bit before breakfast and a little bit before dinner, but I can do it any time because it just feels good and it helps me.

我们先短暂休息一下，听一下今天赞助商的广告。

Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors.

当你经营一家小企业时，雇佣合适的人才至关重要。

When you're running a small business, hiring the right person can make all the difference.

合适的员工能提升团队素质，提高生产力，并将你的业务推向新高度。

The right hire can elevate your team, boost your productivity and take your business to the next level.

但找到这样的人本身可能就像一份全职工作。

But finding that person can feel like a full time job in itself.

这就是LinkedIn招聘的用武之地。

That's where LinkedIn jobs comes in.

他们的新AI助手通过为你匹配真正符合需求的顶尖候选人，消除了招聘中的猜测成分。

Their new AI assistant takes the guesswork out of hiring by matching you with top candidates who actually fit what you're looking for.

它不再让你逐份筛选简历，而是根据你的标准筛选申请人，并突出显示最佳匹配人选，帮你节省数小时时间，让合适的人选出现时能迅速行动。

Instead of sifting through piles of resumes, it filters applicants based on your criteria and highlights the best matches, saving you hours and helping you move fast when the right person comes along.

最棒的是，这些优秀候选人已经存在于LinkedIn上。

The best part is that those great candidates are already on LinkedIn.

事实上，通过LinkedIn雇佣的员工，至少留任一年的可能性比通过主要竞争对手雇佣的员工高出30%。

In fact, employees hired through LinkedIn are 30% more likely to stick around for at least a year compared to those hired through the leading competitor.

第一次就招对人。

Hire right the first time.

在 linkedin.com/studybill 免费发布职位，然后推广以使用 LinkedIn Jobs 的新 AI 助手，更轻松快捷地找到顶尖候选人。

Post your job for free at linkedin.com/studybill, then promote it to use LinkedIn jobs new AI assistant, making it easier and faster to find top candidates.

免费发布职位，请访问 linkedin.com/studybill。

That's linkedin.com/studybill to post your job for free.

条款和条件适用。

Terms and conditions apply.

想象一下，借助真正理解客户的科技来扩展你的业务。

Imagine scaling your business with technology that understands your customers, literally.

这就是 Alexa 和 AWS AI 背后的故事。

That's the story behind Alexa and AWS AI.

每天，Alexa 在 17 种语言中处理超过 10 亿次互动，同时将客户摩擦降低 40%。

Every day, Alexa processes over 1,000,000,000 interactions across 17 languages, all while reducing customer friction by 40%.

这不仅仅是让生活更轻松，更是改变客户互动方式并创造新的收入来源。

It's not just about making life easier, it's also about transforming customer engagement and generating new revenue streams.

幕后，AWS AI驱动着70多个专用模型协同工作，打造自然对话，证明企业如何以信心和安全性大规模部署AI。

Behind the scenes, AWS AI powers more than 70 specialized models working together to create natural conversations, proving how enterprises can deploy AI at scale with confidence and security.

Alexa的AI能力在亚马逊庞大的运营中经过实战检验，实现了大规模的可衡量影响。

Alexa's AI capabilities were battle tested across Amazon's massive operations, delivering real measurable impact at scale.

这些相同的创新现在为其他企业提供了经过验证的框架，以提升效率、解锁新的收入来源并获得持久的市场优势。

These same innovations now give other businesses a proven framework to boost efficiency, unlock new revenue streams and gain a lasting market edge.

在aws.com/ai/rstory了解Alexa的故事。

Discover the Alexa story at aws.comai/rstory.

访问aws.com/ai/rstory了解详情。

That's aws.com/ai/rstory.

你的比特币资产越多，面临的挑战就越复杂。

The more your Bitcoin holdings grow, the more complex your challenges become.

最初简单的自托管，如今已涉及家族传承规划、复杂的安全决策，以及一个错误就可能损失数代财富的境况。

What started as a simple self custody now involves family legacy planning, sophisticated security decisions, and navigating situations where a single mistake could cost generations of wealth.

标准服务并未为这些高风险的现实情况而设计。

Standard services weren't built for these high stakes realities.

因此，长期投资者选择Unchained Signature——这是一项专为认真持有比特币的人士提供的高端私人客户服务，提供专业指导、稳健的托管服务和持久的合作关系。

That's why long term investors choose Unchained Signature, a premium private client service for serious Bitcoin holders who want expert guidance, resilient custody, and an enduring partnership.

使用Signature服务，您将配备专属客户经理，他们了解您的目标，并在每一步为您提供帮助。

With signature, you're paired with your own dedicated account manager, someone who understands your goals and helps you every step of the way.

您将享受白手套式入驻服务、当日紧急支持、个性化教育、降低交易费用，以及优先参与独家活动和功能的权益。

You get white glove onboarding, same day emergency support, personalized education, reduced trading fees, and priority access to exclusive events and features.

Unchained的协作托管模式旨在为那些希望自行保管私钥的用户，提供与全球最大比特币托管机构同等的安全保障。

Unchained's collaborative custody model is designed to provide the same security posture as the world's biggest Bitcoin custodians, but for those who prefer to hold their own keys.

了解更多关于Unchained Signature的信息，请访问unchained.com/preston。

Learn more about Unchained signature at unchained.com/preston.

结账时使用代码Preston10，即可享受首年10%折扣。

Use code Preston 10 at checkout to get 10% off your first year.

比特币不仅仅是为了人生。

Bitcoin isn't just for life.

它是为了世代。

It's for generations.

好的。

Alright.

回到节目。

Back to the show.

我想继续讲书中的第三个练习，它关于掌握实现人生目标的五步法。

I wanted to move on to the third exercise in the book, which, is about mastering the five step process to getting what you want out of life.

我会快速过一遍这五个步骤，然后再问你问题。

And and I'll I'll just run very quickly through these five steps before I before I ask you my question.

第一步是：你的目标是什么？

So the first one is, what's your goal?

也就是设定明确的目标。

So it's setting setting clear goals.

第二步是：阻碍你目标实现的问题有哪些？

The second is asking, what are the problems standing in the way of your goal?

也就是识别并绝不容忍那些阻碍你前进的问题。

So identifying and not tolerating these problems that stand in your way.

第三步是诊断这些问题的根源。

And the third one is what's the diagnosis of these problems?

所以你要退一步，找出问题的根本原因。

So you're stepping back and getting at the root causes of the problems.

然后第四步是思考如何绕过这些问题的设计方案。

And then the fourth is saying what's your design for getting around these problems?

也就是设计你方法上的改变。

So designing changes in your approach.

第五步则是真正把事情做成。

And then the fifth one is actually getting it done.

你打算怎么做才能把事情完成？

What what are you gonna do to get it done?

你在书中的其他地方提到过，每个人至少有一件大事阻碍着他们的成功。

And and you mentioned elsewhere in the book, you you write, everyone has at least one big thing that stands in the way of their success.

找到你的那件事并解决它。

Find yours and deal with it.

所以我正在读这本书的这一部分，看着这个实现你想要的东西的五步流程。

So I I I was reading this part of the book, and I'm looking at this five step process for getting what you want.

当我审视自己的生活时，出现了一个令人深深不安的时刻，我想：天啊。

And there's this sort of deeply unsettling moment as I'm looking at my own life and I'm thinking, oh god.

你知道，我太混乱、分散、精力透支、容易分心，缺乏结构、系统和流程。

You know, I'm I'm so disorganized and scattered and thin stretched and distractible and lacking in structures and systems and processes.

我总是丢书，文件到处都是。

And my I'm always losing my books and my files are everywhere.

我有点不好意思说出来。

I I sort of feel ashamed mentioning it.

但如果你像这样审视自己的缺点，无论是这个、健康、饮食还是其他方面，你会如何应用你的五步流程呢？

But if you're looking at your flaws like that, whether it's that or, you know, your health or eating or whatever, how would you apply your five step process if you

哇。

Wow.

这太棒了，因为你找到了你那一件最重要的事。

That's so great, because you found your one big thing.

除非我在自欺欺人，还有更糟糕的事情，但我认为已经够糟了。

Unless I'm deluding myself, and there are other things that are worse, but I think it's pretty bad.

是的。

Yeah.

我觉得你，我觉得你必须为找到你的头号大事感到高兴，因为如果你找到了你的头号大事并妥善处理，它会彻底改变你的生活。

I think that you I think I think and and you have to feel great about finding your one big thing because your one big thing is, like, if you find your one big thing and you deal with it well, it'll radically improve your life.

然后你再处理你的第二件大事。

Then you can go on to your second big thing.

但哦，好吧。

But oh, okay.

就这样了。

That that's it.

但让我们看看，是的。

But let's look yeah.

让我先处理这些这些这些。

Let me take those those those first.

你的目标。

Your goals.

正如我所说，你几乎可以拥有生活中任何想要的东西，但不可能拥有所有想要的东西。

Like I say, you can have practically anything you want in life, but you can't have everything you want in life.

这意味着你必须做出优先级排序。

So that means you have to prioritize.

你正在追求的是什么？

What are the things you're going after?

这与前面提到的部分有关，也就是要知道你追求的东西是否与你的本性相匹配。

That has to do with the earlier part of, you know, know what you're going after that matches your nature to the the path.

好的。

Okay.

明确一点，要清晰。

Specify be be clear.

你知道那是什么天赋吗？

Do you know that is aptide?

或者你正在发现它，但一定要确保你真正发现了它。

Or maybe you're discovering it, but make sure you discover it.

当你到达那里时，你会遇到你的障碍和问题。

Then when you get there, you will encounter your obstacles and problems.

它们会浮现出来。

They will surface.

这不会是，哦，我明白了。

It's not gonna be, oh, I get it.

我明白了，你知道的，砰的一下。

I get, you know, boom.

我明白了。

I get that.

我明白了。

I get that.

我明白了。

I get that.

不。

No.

不是那样的。

It's not that like that.

所以你会遇到这些问题。

So you'll encounter those.

好的。

Okay.

所以暂停一下。

So pause.

分别完成这些步骤。

Do these steps separately.

不要同时做，要按这个顺序进行。

Don't do them at the same time and and do them in that order.

所以你暂停一下，然后说，好吧。

So you pause and you say, okay.

这是一个问题。

That's that's a problem.

这是一个障碍。

It's an obstacle.

我看到这些人不断遇到同样的障碍，却无法突破。

I watch this people continuing to come to the same obstacle and they don't get past it.

就像爱因斯坦说的，疯狂就是一遍又一遍地做同样的事情，却期待不同的结果。

Like Einstein said, you know, insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result.

所以，总之，你遇到了一个问题。

So anyway, so you get a problem.

然后你诊断问题，找出根本原因，可以借助他人的反馈。

Then you diagnose the problem to get at your root cause, and you can help you can use the feedback of others.

你不必只靠自己苦思冥想。

You don't have to just be in your head.

这才是关键。

This is the big thing.

你知道吗？

You know?

这可能是你的弱点，或者你的处境，或者其他任何原因。

And that may be your weakness or maybe your circumstances or whatever it is.

阻碍你前进的那件事，其确切的根本原因是什么？

What is the exact root cause for that thing that's standing in your your particular way?

在你的情况下，你听起来像是已经发现了你的那个关键问题，因为你会感受到它。

In your case, you sound like you've discovered your, like, your one big thing because you'll you'll feel it.

你会不断撞上它。

You'll stumble over it all the time.

好的。

Okay.

就是这个。

It's that.

好的。

Okay.

如果我能改变这一点，我会获得巨大的提升。

Now if I can change that, I'm gonna have a radical improvement.

那么我的设计是什么？

So what is my design?

好的。

Okay.

其中一个最简单有效的设计就是，和那些在你薄弱方面很强的人合作，帮助他们，因为你在他们薄弱的方面很强。

And, like, one of the best easy designs is work with somebody who's strong where you're weak and help them because they you're strong where they're weak.

对吧？

Right?

所以，如果你比较散漫，容易做各种杂事，而你和一个性格不同、你很欣赏其工作方式的人合作——他们或许能替你完成那些你该做但做不好的事，或者帮助你保持专注——那么你就会拥有一个可行的设计。

So if you worked with somebody who let's say you're scattered and you're inclined to do all of that, and you work with somebody who's got a personality who and and you appreciate their work either to help maybe they do some of those things for you that need to be done or maybe they help keep you on track or something, then you will have a design that will work.

然后，很多人虽然制定了这样的设计，却无法坚持执行。

And then if you take that design, so many people form designs, but they don't follow through and don't do it.

所以第五步是：去执行。

So step number five is do it.

明白吗？

Okay?

去做吧。

Do it.

然后你要持续不断地这样做。

And then you do this on an ongoing basis.

这就是为什么我有这些循环。

That's why I have these loops.

你知道，所有的书籍等等都有这些循环，因为这就是进化的方式。

You know, you know, all the books and everything have these loops because that's what evolution is like.

你学到一些东西，然后它开始失效，你也开始失败，接着你进行反思。

You you learn something, and then it starts to fail, and you start to fail, and and then you reflect.

然后你学到新的东西，以不同的方式去做，接着你上升到一个新的更高层次。

And then you learn something, and you do it differently, and then you go up to a new higher level.

所以，这就是它的运作方式。

And so that's what it's like.

我认为，你的思维方式中还有一件非常重要的事情。

There's also something really important there in your mindset, I think.

你在书中提到，你需要学会爱上自己的错误。

And you you mentioned in the book that you need to learn to love your mistakes.

就在我跟你讲述我那些无望的——或者说不是无望，而是倒霉的倾向时，我有一部分开始脸红。

And even as I was telling you about my my hopeless or or not hopeless, but hapless tendencies, there's a part of me I start to flush.

我开始感到尴尬。

I start to feel embarrassed.

这有点羞耻，而我意识到，这种态度并不 helpful。

It's like it's a little bit shameful, And I can see that's that's that's not a helpful attitude.

你知道吗？

You know what?

我们的社会在养育孩子时，很大程度上都是这样做的。

It's, our society raises children and so on so much with that way.

比如，他们去上学，却被教导要为自己的错误感到羞耻。

Like, they go to school, and they're they're they're taught to be shameful about their mistakes.

而明星就是那个把所有事情都做对的人。

And the star is the person who gets all of the things right and so on.

因此，很多时候，学校里表现优秀的孩子，并不是那些在人生中真正出色的人。

And that's almost one of the reasons that a lot of times children in schools, are not the same who excel are not the same people who excel in life.

所以，当你看到这一点时，情况恰恰相反。

And so, when you look at that, it's the opposite.

比如，如果你自以为是、充满自信，那你就无法学习。

Like, if you know and you're confident, then you know you can't learn.

我的意思是，如果你必须一直相信自己是完美的，那你怎么进步呢？

I mean, how do you improve when you have to be believe that you're perfect all the time?

这根本说不通。

It just doesn't make sense.

是的。

Yeah.

这非常困难。

It's very hard.

还有一些事情我不会去做，因为我觉得：不行。

And and there are things that I won't do because I'm like, no.

我就是不可能在那方面做得很好。

I'm just not gonna be that good at that.

所以这是一种非常具有破坏性的态度。

And so it's a very it's a very destructive attitude.

是的。

Yeah.

你可以意识到，如果你能和一个同样擅长这件事的人一起做，你几乎可以做任何事。

And the thing that you can realize is that you could almost do anything if you can do it with somebody who's also good at it.

所以有些事情你天生擅长，有些则不然。

So there are things that you're naturally gonna be good at and not.

比如，你可能非常有创造力，但也很分散。

Perhaps, for example, you may be very creative, but very scattered.

明白吗？

Okay?

嗯。

Yeah.

这正是作家们可能倾向于的样子。

Which is very much how writers, I think, probably tend to be.

好的。

Okay.

所以你就明白了。

So there you are.

好的。

Okay.

这就是为什么我说，你应该找一个非常不散漫的人合作，他们可以利用你的优势，让你发挥出最佳水平。

And that's why I'm saying then you work with somebody who is, you know, very not scattered, and they can use your you so you get the best.

你可以发挥你的创造力，同时获得其他方面的支持。

You can get your creativity, and you can get the other.

所以很多人犯的错误就是以为自己必须样样都擅长。

And so so many people make the mistake of thinking that they have to be good at stuff.

哦，我得学会那些我不擅长的事情。

Oh, I have to learn the thing that I don't know how to do well.

不。

No.

不。

No.

不。

No.

你其实不需要那样做。

You don't really do need to do that.

你只需要找到一个能和你一起做好这件事的人。

You just need to find somebody who's gonna do it well with you.

你过去也说过一些对像我这样容易分心的人特别有帮助的话，我有大约五份不同的工作。

You also have said in the past something really helpful when when for people like me who are fairly scattered, and I have about five different jobs.

所以不仅是我容易分心，我的生活实际上也很复杂。

And and so there's a so it's not just that I am scattered, it's that my life is actually complicated.

我面临很多要求。

There are lot of demands on me.

我记得布里奇沃特的联席首席投资官鲍勃·普林斯说过，我不记得雷提过多少次了，成熟就是有能力拒绝好的替代方案。

And use I I remember Bob Prince, the co chief CIO at Bridgewater saying, I can't remember how many times Ray said maturity is the ability to reject good alternatives.

这对我来说也是一个非常重要的观点，即拒绝好的替代方案，以便简化生活，决定：我无法把所有事情都做好。

And that seems to me a really important idea as well, this idea of of rejecting good alternatives so that you can simplify your life and decide, well, I can't do everything well.

你能谈谈这一点吗？

Can can you talk a bit about that?

这似乎是一个非常有价值的见解。

It seems to be really a valuable insight.

是的。

Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，如果你试图到处都去，结果可能哪里都到不了。

I mean, you can go nowhere trying to go, you know, everywhere.

你必须优先排序。

You have to prioritize.

你可以做很多事情，但你必须真正弄清楚如何同时做多件事。

And you could do a number of things, but you have to get to really how do you do a number of things.

我认为，能够同时做多件事的唯一方式，就是借助他人的力量。

And the really, the only way I think that you could do a number of things is also through the leverage of other people.

但无论如何，你必须能够拒绝好的替代方案。

But in any case, you have to be able to reject good alternatives.

我每天都会遇到无数绝佳的选择，现在可能比以往任何时候都多，而你必须拒绝这些选择。

I I I find every day fabulous alternatives of things I could do, maybe more so in my life now than ever, and you have to reject those.

每个人都认为我必须追求所有这些机会。

That everybody's thinking I have to pursue all those.

这是不对的。

That's not right.

在第四项练习中，你写到了阻碍我们成功的两大障碍：自尊心和盲点。

In exercise four, you write about two of the greatest barriers to our success, which are our ego and our blind spots.

而问题的一部分，我想，是我们的情绪让我们很难认识到自己的弱点并从错误中学习。

And, part of the problem, I guess, is that our ego makes it very difficult to recognize our weaknesses and learn from our mistakes.

对吧？

Right?

比如，如果我想把我的无能和不足藏起来，那我将很难学会如何应对并克服它们。

Like like, if if I wanna bury my haplessness and, you know, and and and inabilities from sight, it's gonna be really hard for me to learn to deal with them and overcome them.

你能谈谈你是如何找到弥补自己盲点的机制的吗？

Can you talk about how you go about finding these compensating mechanisms for your own blind spots?

因为，显然，你多年来在桥水所做的关键事情之一，就是学会通过那些愿意与你持不同意见的可信人士来交叉验证你的观点。

Because, obviously, one of the key things that you've done at Bridgewater over the years is to learn to to triangulate your views with believable people who who are happy to disagree with you.

因此，这似乎是你个人生活中成功最重要的机制之一。

And and so this seems to be really one of one of the most central mechanisms for success in your own life.

所以存在情绪障碍，这种障碍就像‘我有正确的答案’，这让我觉得极其愚蠢。

So there are ego barriers, and ego barrier is the kind of thing like, I have the right answers, and it really strikes me as incredibly stupid.

有太多人带着观点四处走动，并基于错误的观点行事。

There's so many people who were walking around with opinions and acting on wrong opinions.

你怎么知道自己是对的？

Like, how do you know you're right?

如果你和别人意见相左，那很可能你们中有一人是错的。

And if you're disagreeing with somebody, probably one of you is wrong.

你怎么知道自己不是那个错的人？

And how do you know you're not the wrong person?

所以从某种意义上说，逻辑上你自然希望吸收最好的观点，找出真相和正确的道路。

So you have to have in in a sense, it's just logical that you would want to take in the best and find out what's true and what's the right path.

因此，自我障碍阻碍了这一点。

So the ego barrier stands in the way of that.

而盲点障碍，我所说的盲点是指人们会真正地以不同方式看待事物。

And the blind spot barrier, what I mean by the blind spot is people will literally see things differently.

你可以让身处情境中的人描述这件事，他们会给出不同的描述。

You know, it's you can take a per the person in the situation and ask them to describe it, and they will describe it differently.

有些人能看到大局。

Some people see the big picture.

有些人对这些事情敏感，所以他们视而不见。

Some people sensitive to this thing and that, so they're blind.

这不仅仅是自尊的问题。

It's not just a matter of ego.

这些情况确实会发生。

And those things will will be the case.

所以如果你意识到这一点并且保持好奇，你就会想去寻找那些能够或能够给你答案的人。

So if you know that and then you're curious, you then want to find the person who's going to be able or people who are gonna be able to give you the answers.

所以我发现的是这种三方验证。

So what I found is this triangulation.

换句话说，找某个领域里最聪明的三个人，也许他们很成功。

In other words, find kind of the three smartest people on a particular subject to maybe they're successful.

然后像医生一样，想象你得了病，你找了一个医生，你希望找三个最聪明的人，让他们讨论这些观点的优劣。

And then almost ask them, like doctors, just imagine you have a disease and you have a doctor, you want the three smartest people, have them debate the merits of these things.

如果他们都一致认为方向如此，那就合乎逻辑，很可能是个正确的决定。

If they all line up and they believe it's in that direction, it makes sense, it's probably a good decision.

这些聪明人之间的任何分歧都会凸显出需要进一步审视的问题。

And whatever the disagreements are of these smart people bubbles up the issues that need to be examined more.

通过这种可信度三角验证，我发现我几乎可以进入任何我并不太了解的领域，并让自己置身其中。

And then through that believability triangulation, I found I could go into almost any area that I don't really know much about that I can get find myself in that.

比如，我出于某种原因对海洋探索充满热情。

Like, I have a passion for ocean exploration for a certain reason.

我对它了解不多，它可能变得很复杂，但我可以这样做，或者在医疗或其他领域也是如此。

I don't know much about it, it's it can get complicated, but I can do that or medical or something.

因此，这种在深思熟虑的分歧中进行三角验证的方法——其中包含好奇心和学习——是一种绝佳的学习和决策方式。

So that idea of triangulation among that thoughtful disagreement where there's curiosity and there's learning, it's a fabulous way to learn and make decisions.

我们能否用一个具体的投资案例来说明？比如，想想我们都正在纠结的问题——中国，对吧？桥水基金显然在中国投入了数十亿美元，也有基金在那里。

Can we use a specific investment example where, say, think of something that all of us are wrestling with, that you're very much invested in financially and intellectually, the conundrum of China, right, where Bridgewater obviously has billions of dollars invested in China, has funds there as well.

这对我们所有人来说都是一个难题。

And it's really it's a puzzle for all of us.

对吧？

Right?

这些外国人正在观察，试图理解一种与我们截然不同的文化。

Where where these foreigners looking looking, they're trying to figure out this culture that's totally different from our own.

当你试图以非常客观的方式拨开迷雾，应对每个人对中国的看法时，你该如何进行这种三角验证？而他们的大多数观点都是错误或缺乏依据的？

And how do you how do you go about this process of triangulation when you're trying in a very objective way to cut through all the noise where everyone everyone's got an opinion on China, and most of their opinions are wrong or ill informed?

你是如何拨开这些噪音，试图弄清楚一个关键问题的，比如：中国是否正变得越来越不接受自由市场原则？

How are you cutting through that noise and trying to figure out, for example, the big question of is this a place that's becoming less open to free market principles?

还是他们只是对自由市场有着独特或与众不同的做法？

Or do they just have an idiosyncratic or unique approach to to free markets?

我不确定自己是否表达清楚了，但你是如何……不，等等。

What I I don't know if I'm articulating that well, but how do you No.

你表达得很好，我可以回答你的问题。

You're you're well, and I can answer your question.

首先，我必须说，我在处理这些问题时始终保持谦逊，承认我可能犯错。

First of all, I should say that I've I start with a real humility in operating and saying, I don't know if I'm wrong or not.

嗯。

Mhmm.

我不喜欢涉足那些我并非专家的领域，但中国是个特殊情况。

And I don't like to go into areas that, you know, I'm no I'm no expert in except if I and in case of China, I have it's a particular case.

我从1984年起就一直去那里。

I've been going there since 1984.

我接触过最高层、最深入的中国人和非中国人。

I have contact with, you know, the highest ranking, most immersed people, Chinese and non Chinese.

所以，我会进行多方验证。

So, and then I triangulate.

你知道，我会和一些人交谈——我就不一一列举了，但比如这个人、那个人，他们都非常了解情况，我通过这些来交叉验证。

You know, I speak with oh, you know, I won't name them all, but, you know, this one or that one or that, and they are immersed in it, and I get the triangulation.

这引导我得出自己的结论，然后我投资的金额不会超过我能坦然承受损失的限度。

And that leads me to whatever my conclusions are, and then I don't invest more than, an amount of money that I can be comfortable getting whacked with.

所以我进行分散投资。

So I diversify.

我通过多方验证，以及我所积累的专业知识，变得非常有洞察力。

I become highly informed through the triangulation, through the expertise that I've developed.

如果是一个我尚未深入研究的地方，我会努力获得一定程度的理解，并且我知道，谁不仅是聪明的，而且是直率、诚实、品行端正、不会欺骗我的人。

If it was a place that I didn't develop much expertise in, it would be that I would be driven to have a certain amount of understanding, and I would also know, you know, let who are the really not only smart, but straightforward, honest people, people of good character who will not BS me and so on.

正是他们之间的辩论所激发的好奇心会引导我，然后我会谨慎地朝这个方向行动，既不会投入太多，也不会投入太少。

And it'll be that curiosity of the debate between them that will help guide me, and then I'll tread gently in that direction by putting not too much, you know, not too much in you know, not too little.

所以这又回到了我想要的15个良好且不相关的投资回报渠道。

So it goes back to this 15 I want 15 good uncorrelated investments, return streams.

这就是我会怎么做，以及我实际是如何做的。

So that's how I would do it and how to how I do it.

所以你是在为自己做好准备，意识到自己可能会犯错，并确保如果错了，错误也不会是致命的。

So you're setting yourself up so you're you're aware that you could be wrong, and you're making sure that your errors won't be fatal if you're wrong.

没错。

That's right.

对。

Right.

而且要拥有最好的洞察力，因为在中國，我非常非常了解，而且有正确的人脉。

And have the best insight because in China, it's because I'm I know it very, very well with the right people.

对吧？

Right?

我的意思是，这很关键。

I mean, that's that's key.

有很多人没有我这么幸运，能有这些经历。

There's so many people who are not as fortunate as I am to, have those exposures.

但即便如此，他们仍需做自己的分析，然后还得进行多方验证。

And then, but then they they still have to do theirs, and then they have to do the triangulations.

所以，尽管所有这些都成立，仍然存在巨大的不确定性。

So it's that oh, and but even though all of that's the case, there are the great uncertainties.

如果我们陷入经济战争，或者更糟，军事战争，该怎么办？

What if the what if we go to a type of economic war or a type of or worse, a military war or, all of these things?

在每一个地方、每一个地点、每一项投资、几乎每一个决策中，都有出错的可能性，而且可能会严重出错。

In every place, in every location, in every investment, in almost every decision practically, there's a probability of being wrong and, you know, and painfully wrong.

所以，正如我所说，如果我有15个优质的非相关投资，我就能在不降低回报的情况下，将风险降低80%。

And so like I say, if I have 15 good uncorrelated bets, I will reduce my risk by 80% without reducing my return.

这意味着我的收益与风险比提高了五倍。

And that means I improve my return to risk ratio by a factor of five.

所以，是的，这就像赌场。

So, yes, it's, it's like a casino.

你知道的？

You know?

是的。

Yeah.

当赌场运营时，有这么多张赌桌，这么多事情同时进行，单靠某一张桌子在某一个晚上是不行的。

When the casino's playing and they have so many tables and so on, many things going on, it's not any one of them on any one night.

而是靠这种全方位的分散投资和一致性。

It's that all that diversification and that, you know, consistency.

对于普通投资者来说，显然要这样做要困难得多。

It's obviously much harder for a regular investor to do this.

对吧？

Right?

我认为，你在桥水公司曾拥有大约1300名员工，这些人都是非常非常聪明的人，他们在研究如何实现多元化。

You you've, I think, had about 1,300 employees at Bridgewater, and these are very, very, very smart people figuring out how to how to diversify.

如果你是一个普通投资者，面对这个充满风险的世界——比如通货膨胀、新冠疫情、乌克兰战争、债务危机、民族主义抬头，所有这些令人担忧的因素——你会怎么想呢？

If you're a regular investor and you're looking at this very risky world, right, where, you know, we've got inflation and and COVID and war in Ukraine and debt crises and, you know, rising nationalism and all all of these forces that are pretty worrying.

你如何从实际角度思考资产配置，以便在不具备桥水那样高超执行能力的情况下，依然能吸收其核心理念，至少建立起一个多元化、审慎配置的投资组合，帮助你度过未来十年、十五年甚至二十年？

How do you think in a practical way about asset allocation so that you take this you take the spirit of what you figured out without necessarily the skill in execution, but so you can at least get some some ability to create a diversified, prudently prudently diversified portfolio that's gonna help you to get through the next ten, fifteen, twenty years?

无论发生什么，大概就是这样。

What what more or less, whatever happens.

这其实是一样的道理，只是程度更甚而已。

So it's it's it's the same thing, just more so.

正如你所指出的，普通投资者不太可能成功。

The average investor, as you point out, is not going to be successful.

就像你说的，桥水大约有1300名员工。

Like you say, you know, Bridgewater has about 1,300 employees.

我们在各种研究上投入了数亿美元。

We spend hundreds of millions of dollars on research, you know, of various types of things.

我们试图获得优势，同时仍在寻找多元化的力量。

We try to get an edge, and then we're still looking for that power of the diversification.

市场是一个零和游戏。

The markets are a zero sum game.

我的意思是，这就像打扑克。

What I mean is it's like a poker.

在零和博弈中，总有人从别人那里拿走钱，而在这个市场中竞争比参加奥运会还要困难。

You you have somebody's gonna take money away from somebody else in terms of that zero sum, and it's more difficult for to compete in than the Olympics.

回报更高。

It's more rewarding.

更多人参与其中。

More people change it.

你不会说我要去参加奥运会。

You wouldn't say I'm gonna go compete in the Olympics.

在市场中竞争非常困难。

It's very difficult to compete in the markets.

所以我会说，谦逊的态度应该非常强烈。

So I would say the humility should be very high.

这意味着多元化也必须非常充分。

That means the diversification also should be very high.

然后，你知道，我们可以花很多时间讨论你需要哪种类型的多元化。

And then, you know, we could spend a lot of time on what type of diversification you need.

在市场中做到这一点几乎很容易，因为市场几乎会让所有赌注变得比你想象的更均衡，这就像在赛马中下注，结果是有的马快，有的马慢，但赔率会对此进行调整。

It's particularly almost easy to do in the markets because the markets almost make all the bets more equal than you would imagine because it's like betting on in a horse race, and then what happens is there are faster horses and there are slower horses, but the odds are adjusted for that.

因此，你可以同样有可能押注于最不可能赢的马，它的预期价值与押注于最有可能赢的马相同，因为赔率已经做了调整。

So you can be equally likely to bet on the, least likely horse to win, and it'll have the same expected value as betting on the most likely horse because of the way that they're handicapped.

市场中也存在同样的情况。

And the same thing exists in the market.

所以市场几乎会让这些机会在优势方面变得更加均衡。

So it's almost like they're almost the markets will make them more equal in terms of that edge.

这意味着多元化非常重要。

So what it means is that that diversification is important.

那么，你该分散投资哪些领域呢？

Now what do you diversify?

你必须稍微理解一下是什么让市场联动或不联动。

You have to understand a little bit about what makes markets move together and not.

我不希望我在这里偏离主题，但你可以看到。

And I don't think you want me to digress into that, but you could see.

你甚至可以看看事物随时间如何变化。

You can just even look at how things have changed over time.

但这一点我们目前无法深入探讨，因为内容实在太长了。

But it's something that we're not gonna be able to cover, you know, here now because it's just too lengthy.

但，是的。

But, yes.

你可以回溯过去，问问你所咨询的投资专家，带他们回到比如2000年，每一个都如此。

And and you could go back and you could see, ask you whoever you're asking about the investments, go back and take them to, like, the year 2000, each one of them.

我会回溯到1900年，但也许对你来说回溯到1900年没那么容易。

I go back to 1900, but maybe it's not so easy for you to go back to 1900.

但如果你考察这项投资，看看它表现如何，再观察它与其他投资之间的关系，经历2008年或最近的这段时期，你就能看到它们的表现如何，彼此之间的表现差异，以及分散投资是如何起作用的。

But if you take that investment and you see how the one did, and then you see how they did in relationship to the other, and you go through 2008 or you go through this period recently, you could see how they performed and how they performed in relationship to each other and how the diversification would have worked.

所以我认为，这些才是应该去做的。

So those are the things that should be done, I think.

所以广义上讲，假设一个普通投资者持有像先锋指数基金这样的产品，比如涵盖整个股票市场或标普500指数的基金，再配上一个国际指数基金之类的。

So so broadly speaking, you'd you'd want so so let's say a regular investor has, you know, a a Vanguard index fund that has, you know, the total stock market or the S and P 500 or something, and they have an international index fund or something like that.

然后你还想拥有，比如说，一些通胀挂钩债券、现金，以及黄金等大宗商品。

And then you'd also wanna have, what, some inflation index bonds, some cash, commodities like gold.

对。

Right.

没错。

Yeah.

它们都属于我所说的收益流。

And and you they're they're all like return streams, I call them.

你懂的？

You know?

你把它们画出来，它们就这样上升，以此类推，你就这么做。

You plot them, and they go up like this and so on, and you do that.

所以现在你观察其中一个在一段时间内的表现，知道未来可能与过去不同，但关注它们彼此之间的变动关系。

So now you look at the one over a period of time, knowing that the future might be different from the other, but looking at how they move in relationship to each other.

然后你说，好吧。

And then you say, okay.

如果我把这个和那个放在一起，如此类推，它们就能相互匹配。

If I put this one with this one and so on and they match it.

现在我可以更详细地解释一下金融工程，因为那里有一些复杂的部分，比如你如何平衡风险？

Now I could explain more about financial engineering because there are some twists there, like how do you risk balance them?

你知道，有些资产风险更高，有些则更低。

You know, some have more risk than others.

所谓的原始风险，指的是波动性。

By raw risk, mean volatility.

例如，股票市场的波动性是债券市场的两倍以上，具体取决于债券市场的部分和股票类型，但大致是两倍的波动性。

For example, the stock market is more than twice as volatile as the bond market, depending on what part of the bond market and what stock, but roughly twice volatility.

所以如果你把一半的钱投入每一种资产，整体组合仍会被股票主导。

So if you put 50% of your money in each, it'll still be dominated by the stocks.

因此，如何找到合适的债券呢？你知道，期限更长的债券波动性更大，诸如此类，你需要把这些因素组合起来，观察它们如何相互平衡，从而实现分散风险。

So how you find the right bonds, you know, longer duration bonds will have greater volatility or whatever, you put those things together in a way where you see how they balance each other so that they provide that diversification.

显然，过去几年里，很多人被冲昏了头脑，把太多钱投到了美国市场，因为美国市场已经持续上涨了很长时间，表现非常出色。

And, obviously, a lot of people got carried away over the last few years and put too much money in in The US because it had gone up for so long and it had been great.

把太多钱投进了加密货币，因为那看起来像是一个只赢不输的赌场；也把太多钱投进了高科技股票，人们说即使这些公司不盈利，你也可以随意出任何价格购买。

Put too much money in cryptocurrencies because it seemed like the casino where you could only only win and too much money in high-tech stocks that people said you could more or less pay any price for even if they weren't profitable.

当你看到这种行为，并想到你所采取的这种有原则的投资方法时，有没有什么原则是我们应该牢记的，可以保护我们免受这种傲慢、过度自信、过度集中、趋势追随和危险的羊群效应的影响？

When when you look at that sort of behavior and you think of this principled approach that you take to investing, is there a principle that we should bear in mind that would protect us from that sort of hubris overconfidence, overconcentration, trend following, dangerous herd chasing?

是的。

Yeah.

首先，我想说，在我五十年的职业生涯中，同样的事情已经发生过无数次了。

First of all, I wanna say, I can't tell you how many times in my fifty years the exact same things happen.

所以你基本上能认出它们，你知道，它们有那种特定的气味。

So you kinda know you smell them, you know, they have that smell to them.

但我会说，你最好的做法是回顾历史，看看其他类似的情况。

But I would say the best thing you could do is go back in history and and see the other cases.

几乎可以想象，这一切都是另一种类似的情况。

Almost imagine everything's another one of those.

你知道吗？

You know?

所以我回到那个案例，我记得有漂亮五十股、互联网泡沫、房地产泡沫。

So I I go back to that case, and I think I was in There was the nifty 50, there was the dotcom bubble, there was the real estate bubble.

这样的情况太多了。

There's so many of them.

我有一些标准来识别它们，但那是我作为专业人士进行这类研究时才具备的标准。

And I have criteria to identify them, but that's me as a professional doing that kind of research to have criteria.

但市场反映的是人们的观点。

But, the markets reflect the opinions.

因此，当所有人都对某件事达成一致时，它们可能已经定价过高了。

So for that reason, when everybody agrees on something, they're probably expensive.

当一切都被憎恨、你觉得最糟糕的时候，每个人都不看好，那它可能就便宜了。

And when when everything is hated and you think it's the worst, everybody, then it's probably cheap.

人们混淆了这样一个事实：比如，一家好公司并不比一家差公司更值得投资，就像赛马一样。

And people confuse the fact that, let's say, a good company is not a better investment than a bad company, any more than the horse in the horse race.

你知道，表现最差的那匹马，如果赢了，赔率会高得多。

You know, that the worst performing horse has odds that are much higher, if he comes in.

因此，你必须知道在这些情况下该关注什么。

And so because of that, you have to, know what to look for in those things.

但我不认为那种方式，我认为你必须对此保持谨慎，做好分散投资，警惕潮流。

But I don't think that that kind of I think you have to be careful about that and diversify well, you know, and and beware of fads.

但如果你做好了分散投资，就会更容易、更好，因为很难区分什么是潮流、什么是新现实。

But if you diversify well, you know, it'll be easier and better Because it's very difficult also to distinguish a fad from a new reality.

加密货币是新现实，还是只是潮流？

Is crypto a new reality, or is it a fad?

这个技术领域，你知道的，是新现实还是潮流？

Is this technology thing, you know, a new reality or a fad?

你知道的。

You know?

这些很难判断。

Those can be difficult to decide.

所以，回到多元化吧。

So, you know, go back to the diversification.

在许多这样的加密货币之后，你更新了你对加密货币的看法吗？

And have you updated your your view on crypto now that many of these

加密货币已经变得……我不想深入讨论，但我们想谈谈生命周期和其他部分，是的。

cryptocurrencies have been think I'd rather not get can get into it, but we wanna talk about the life cycle and the other parts Yeah.

关于这本书，我想，因为我希望帮助人们建立他们的原则。

Of the book, I think, because I wanna help people with their principles.

我的意思是，是的，我的意思是，每个人对加密货币都很感兴趣，你知道的？

I mean, yeah, I mean, I but but everybody's interested in crypto and and you know?

但我不认为我们应该。

But I don't I don't know that we should.

你觉得我们应该深入探讨这个吗？

Do you think we should dig us into that?

你能给我们讲讲吗？我觉得人们会非常好奇。

Can can you give us I I think people will be so curious.

我觉得值得简要地给出两到三句话的概述，谈谈你的看法——你认为加密货币是否有价值，还是你已经逐渐认为没有？

I think it's worth giving a sort of two two or three sentence synopsis of a a a top, you know, a a view of whether you whether you think there's anything there or whether you've kind of come to think, no.

我觉得根本没什么价值。

I don't think there's much there at all.

有一种技术，就是区块链技术，我认为这是一种非常好的技术。

There's a technology, the blockchain technology, which I think is an excellent technology.

我认为非常重要的是要把区块链技术和数字货币区分开来。

And I think it's very important to distinguish it from a digital currency.

如果我们讨论的是数字货币，那就以比特币为例吧，你知道，这里面有各种各样的东西。

And if we're dealing with digital currencies, let's use bitcoin as an example, you know, there are all sorts of things.

有稳定币，还有各种各样的东西。

There's stablecoin and blah blah blah, all sorts of things.

但总的来说，我们来谈谈比特币。

But but by and large, we're let's talk about, Bitcoin.

首先，我认为我们正处在一个大量制造债务和货币的环境中，我们所熟知的货币以及像债务这类金融资产——只不过是对未来获得大量金钱的承诺——我认为这种环境并不理想，人们会希望寻找比货币更好的财富储存方式。

Now, first of all, I believe we're in an environment in which we're we're creating a lot of debt and money, and money as we know it and financial assets such as debt assets, which is just a commitment to receive a lot of money is, I think we're in an environment that's not gonna be a good environment, and people will wanna look for alternative store holds of wealth than than those in in turn in money.

话虽如此，所有的数字货币基本上都没有复制任何东西。

Having said that, like, all the digital currencies basically don't replicate anything.

你知道吗？

You know?

它们的价格上下波动，但并不是因为它能对冲通胀，或者具有其他什么特性。

They move up and down for all it's it's not like it's tied to it's it's inflation hedge or it's this and that.

它主要不是一种有效的财富储存手段。

It's it's mostly so it's not an effective storehold of wealth.

你几乎找不到任何可以依托的东西。

You almost have nothing to hang your hat on.

而且它的规模太小了。

And it's tiny.

比特币目前的总价值可能只有微软股票的四分之一左右。

Bitcoin right now probably has a total value of maybe a quarter of what Microsoft stock is and so on.

因此，人们对它的关注程度与其真实价值相比严重失衡。

So it's it it becomes a preoccupation by people that is disproportionate with its true reality.

我的意思是，为什么要研究它呢？

I mean, why study that?

有那么多其他的投资方式值得研究。

There's so many things, investments that you can study.

作为财富储存手段，它并没有隐私性。

And it's as a store holder of wealth, there's not privacy to it.

也许对公众来说有隐私性，但你知道，这非常容易被追踪。

There may be privacy from the public, but, you know, it's very easy.

每个人都在追踪你的行为，所以它并不私密。

It's everybody's tracking what you're doing on it and so on, so it's not private.

作为交换媒介，它也并不高效。

And as a medium of exchange, it's not very effective.

你不能轻易地在那里用它买东西。

It's not like you can go there and easily buy stuff with it.

你可以用它买一些东西，但不多。

You can buy some stuff with it, but not much.

所以，它不会是我首选的财富储存方式。

So, it wouldn't be my favorite storehold of wealth.

我的意思是，我确实持有少量，只是因为谁知道呢，它可能有用，但我并没有真正体验过它的感觉。

I mean, I own a tiny bit of it just because of the element of who knows, and it could be there, but I'm not also to experience what it's like.

但我确实相信，随着时间的推移，会出现更好的数字货币。

But I I do think that in time, there will be better digital currencies.

比如，我相信你可以创造一种数字货币，使其具备与通胀率相当的购买力。

Like, believe that you can create a digital currency that will give you the equivalent of the inflation rate.

而这就是购买力。

And that's buying power.

因为我相信，大多数货币或大多数债务工具——正如我所说——都是承诺在期限内收到货币的凭证。

Because I believe that most currencies or most debt instruments, which are, as I say, they're a promise to receive currency over the duration of them.

我认为它们的回报率相对于通胀来说会很差，而我认为你可以找到一种好的数字货币，但它们现在还没有。

I think that they will have poor returns relative to inflation where I think you could get something that'll be a good digital currency, but they don't have it now.

很多东西都像潮流一样来了又去，比如NFT、这种币那种币等等。

And so many things have sort of come and gone as fads, you know, NFTs and, you know, this coin and that coin and and so on.

所以，这就是我对它的看法。

So, anyway, that's what I think about it.

谢谢。

Thanks.

不。

No.

这非常有帮助。

That's very helpful.

几十年来，你显然非常成功地将经济视为另一台机器，观察不同力量之间的相互作用。

One of the things that obviously you've been extraordinarily successful at over the decades has been looking at the economy as another machine and looking at how the different forces interact with each other.

正如你过去所提到的，有五个非常关键的力量，包括货币和信贷、内部冲突、外部冲突、自然事件以及人类的创造力。

And as as you've mentioned in the past, there are five really key forces, which include money and credit and internal conflict and external conflict and acts of nature and man's inventiveness.

在当前情况下，最关键的问题似乎是货币和信贷、债务创造以及流动性这一整套问题。

It seems like the the most key in many ways at the moment is this whole issue of money and credit and creating debt and liquidity.

你能谈谈你对货币和信贷这一力量的理解吗？像我这样没有经济学背景的人，真的很难理解这一点，而这种理解如何让你能够审视美国的现状，并说：‘好吧，这对投资者来说是一个艰难的环境。’

Can you talk a little bit about how that understanding of this force of money and credit, which people like me who don't have any kind of economic training really struggle to understand, how that enables you to look, say, at the situation in The US and say, okay, this is a difficult environment for investors.

因此，这在通胀或美联储政策方面都将具有挑战性。

So this is gonna be challenging in terms of inflation or in terms of Fed policy.

你能把这种关于经济机器如何运作的历史和经济知识，给我们一些具体的背景吗？这样我们就能更好地审视当前局势，明白：‘哦，我现在所处的是一种什么样的天气状况，我需要带伞、穿雨衣、穿靴子，或者甚至建个避难所’——我不知道我有没有表达清楚，但对我们其他人来说，确实很难理解，也难以判断形势的严重程度。

Can you just put put that historical knowledge and economic knowledge of how how the machine works in some context for us so so we're better at looking at the situation and saying, oh, this is this is the type of of weather in which I'm operating, and I need to carry an umbrella or a Macintosh or or boots or or, you know, build a bomb shelter or what I I don't know if I'm explaining that properly, but I am it's difficult for the rest of us to understand, to gauge how serious the situation is.

显然，在回答这个问题时，我无法给你完整解释这台机器是如何运作的。

Obviously, in a question and my answer to the question, I can't give you all of the complete explanation of how the machine works.

我制作了一段动画视频，讲解经济机器是如何运作的。

I did a video how the economic machine works in an animated video.

我认为有1.4亿人观看了这段视频，或者你可以去看一下，但那大约有三十分钟。

I think 140,000,000 people watched it, or you can look that and that's but that's about thirty minutes.

但我可以举一些例子。

But I'll give then some examples.

好的。

Okay.

有一个周期。

There's a cycle.

存在一个短期的货币、信贷、债务、市场和经济周期。

There's a short term money, credit, debt, market, economic cycle.

我们也称之为商业周期。

We call it the business cycles also.

发生的情况是，你从衰退开始，增长缓慢，通胀低迷，央行大量投放货币和信贷，这些具有刺激作用，信贷转化为债务，而债务是需要偿还的，信贷则具有刺激性，能提供购买力，从而启动了一个周期。

And what happens is, you you go from a recession, growth is slow, inflation is low, central banks produce a lot of money and credit that's stimulative, it creates that credit turns into debt, debt is something that they has to be paid back, credit is something that's stimulative, it gives buying power, so it starts to create a cycle.

这个周期会上升。

That goes up.

它会导致泡沫的形成，并达到通胀等状况的顶点。

It leads to creating bubbles and re reaching a point where there's inflation and so on.

在这个过程中，主要的三方参与者，或者说三种类型的参与者，是我所谓的借款人和债务人。

And through this process, the three main players or three main types of players are those who I'll call borrower debtors.

借钱负债在经济上合算吗？

Is it economic to borrow and be in debt?

还是做放贷者、债权人？

Or lender creditors?

做放贷者、债权人合算吗？

Is it economic to be a lender creditor?

当然，这两者的数量必须相等，因为一个人的贷款就是另一个人的借款。

And of course, there needs to be the same amount of those because one man's lending has to be an immense borrowing.

但你可以看到，这些激励机制如何因系统而改变：为了启动系统，系统会在某一环节注入极低的利率、大量的流动性等等。

But you can see how those incentives are changed by the system because what they'll put in at the at the one part of the system to get it going and so on, real low, real interest rates, lots of liquidity, and so on.

在这样的时期，做借款人、债务人是有利的。

And during such times, it pays to be a borrower, you know, debtor.

而在这些周期的另一阶段，做债权人则更有利。

And then in these cycles, then it goes to the opposite that it pays to be a creditor.

例如，现在的情况是，短期利率相对于其他因素而言相对较高。

So for example, now, you have a situation where short term interest rates are relatively high in relationship to other things.

他们从以负实际利率赠送资金转变为这种情况。

They went from giving money away for negative real interest rates to that.

他们改变了激励机制。

They changed the incentives.

从一种状态转向另一种状态、调整利率的行为，会改变各类资产的价值，因为每项资产都是对未来现金流的一次性支付。

The action of that move from the one to the other in changing interest rates changes the value of asset classes because every asset is a lump sum payment for future cash flow.

因此，利率会影响这些现金流的现值。

And so the present value of that with the interest rate has an effect.

确实存在这样的现象，你可以观察到这些变化。

And there are such things so that you can watch those.

它们因相同的原因一再重复发生。

They've repeated over and over again for the same reasons.

所以，这个周期本质上看起来就像另一个类似的周期。

So, like, this cycle looks like just another one of those cycles essentially.

我们大致知道自己处于周期的哪个阶段。

We know where we are in the cycle roughly.

你知道，你正处于紧缩政策的后期阶段，但还没有实现那个特定目标，所以你知道他们会怎么做。

You know, you're at the point where you're approaching the, late in the tightening, but you haven't yet achieved that particular goal, so you know what they're gonna do.

blah blah blah blah blah。

Blah blah blah blah blah.

你知道，每项投资都有很多这样的因素。

You know, there's a lot of those things for each investment.

所以你必须了解这些机制，然后逐一应对。

So you have to know those mechanics, and you go through it.

但这就像看着一切一遍又一遍地重复发生。

But it's like watching, you know, everything happening over and over again.

我现在所做的是，试图帮助他人，因为我正处于人生的这个阶段。

What I do to try to help people now I'm at a phase in my life.

我希望我们能谈谈人生周期。

I hope we'll talk about the life cycle.

是的。

Yeah.

但我现在处于人生的一个阶段，我的目标不再是追求更大的成功。

But I'm at a phase in my life where my goal isn't anymore to be, more successful.

我已经得到了我想要的一切。

I've gotten everything kind of I wanted that way.

我的目标是把我所学的东西传递下去，帮助其他人获得成功。

I my goal is to pass along the things that I've learned to help other people be successful.

所以我把一些想法发布在社交媒体上，尤其是领英，能更完整地呈现这些内容。

So what I've done is to, put some of my thoughts on social media, but particularly LinkedIn gives them more complete pictures of those.

如果有人想关注这些内容，我还会通过视频把它们拆解开来。

So if people wanna follow those things, and I break them down also in videos.

我发布的视频能清楚地展示这些事情是如何运作的，但我很难在几分钟内回答所有问题。

The videos that I put put out are make it pretty clear, you know, how these things work, But I can't really do a lot in answering the question in a couple of minutes.

特雷，我们先休息一下，听听今天赞助商的话。

Trey Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors.

特雷，你知道是什么让最好的企业脱颖而出吗？

Trey You know what sets the best businesses apart?

它们通过利用创新，将复杂性转化为增长。

It's how they leverage innovation to turn complexity into growth.

亚马逊广告正是这样做的，其背后是 AWS 的人工智能。

That's exactly what Amazon Ads is doing, powered by AWS AI.

每天，亚马逊广告处理数十亿次实时决策，优化整个价值 310 亿美元的广告生态系统中的广告表现。

Every day, Amazon Ads processes billions of real time decisions, optimizing ad performance across a $31,000,000,000 advertising ecosystem.

结果是广告活动运行速度提升 30%，并实现规模化、可衡量的业务影响。

The result is campaigns that run 30% faster and deliver measurable business impact at scale.

这正是亚马逊自身实现增长的方式。

And this is how Amazon itself drives growth.

它们的代理式人工智能将营销从资源密集型流程转变为智能自主系统，最大化投资回报率，并赋能营销人员专注于创意与战略。

Their agentic AI transforms marketing from a resource heavy process into an intelligent autonomous system that maximizes ROI and empowers marketers to focus on creativity and strategy.

亚马逊广告证明，人工智能驱动的广告不仅是未来，更是新的竞争优势。

Amazon Ads is proving that AI driven advertising isn't just the future, it's the new competitive advantage.

更棒的是，每一家企业都可以应用亚马逊内部完善过的同一套创新方法论。

And better yet, every enterprise can apply the same innovation playbook that Amazon perfected in house.

在 aws.comai/rstory 查看亚马逊广告故事。

See the Amazon ad story at aws.comai/rstory.

那就是 aws.comair story。

That's aws.comair story.

初创公司行动迅速。

Startups move fast.

借助人工智能，它们交付速度更快，并更早吸引企业客户。

And with AI, they're shipping even faster and attracting enterprise buyers sooner.

但大单带来了更大的安全和合规要求。

But big deals bring even bigger security and compliance requirements.

SOC 2 并不总是足够。

A SOC two isn't always enough.

适当的安全措施可以促成或破坏一笔交易。

The right kind of security can make a deal or break it.

但有多少创始人或工程师能抽出时间离开公司建设呢？

But what founder or engineer can afford to take time away from building their company?

Vanta 的人工智能和自动化功能可在数天内轻松为大单做好准备。

Vanta's AI and automation make it easy to get big deals ready in days.

Vanta 持续监控您的合规状态，确保未来的交易不会受阻。

And Vanta continuously monitors your compliance so future deals are never blocked.

此外，Vanta 随您一同成长，并在每一步都提供及时的支持。

Plus Vanta scales with you, backed by support that's there when you need it every step of the way.

随着人工智能改变法规和买家的期望，Vanta 知道何时需要什么，并已打造了最快、最简便的路径，助您达成目标。

With AI changing regulations and buyers' expectations, Vanta knows what's needed and when, and they've built the fastest, easiest path to help you get there.

因此，认真的初创公司都会早早通过 Vanta 实现安全合规。

That's why serious startups get secure early with Vanta.

我们的听众可在 vanta.com/billionaires 获得 1000 美元优惠。

Our listeners get $1,000 off at vanta.com/billionaires.

访问 vanta.com/billionaires，立减 1000 美元。

That's vanta.com/billionaires for $1,000 off.

新的一年到了，这是终于开始实现您梦想事业的最佳时机。

It's the new year, which means that it's the best time to finally start the business you've been dreaming about.