RWH027：与克里斯托弗·贝格一起进行高质量投资

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好的。

Alright.

回到节目。

Back to the show.

我认为你哲学关注的一部分是熵。

Part of your philosophical focus, I think, is on entropy.

事物正走向衰败和毁灭的事实。

The fact that things things are on a path towards decay and destruction.

你似乎在寻找一些能够对抗这种宇宙强大法则的公司。

And it seems like you're looking for a handful of companies that somehow can defy this this great force of the universe.

当你审视公司时，当你观察你投资组合中的企业，或者你称之为‘巨人森林’的那几百只股票——你认为这些是优秀的企业，如果价格变得有吸引力，你就会抓住机会，阴云似乎即将消散。

And and I'm wondering when you look at companies, when you look at the businesses in your portfolio or in what you call the grove of titans of these couple of 100 stocks that you follow that you think are great businesses that you would take advantage of if the price got attractive, the clouds seemed likely to disperse.

当你观察所有这些公司时，它们具备哪些共同特质，使它们能够对抗熵这一压倒性的力量？

When you look at all of those companies, what the kind of traits that they have in common that allow them to defy this overwhelming force of entropy?

我非常喜欢‘熵’这个词，很高兴你提到了它。在我看来，熵就像一枚硬币。

I love the I I just love the term entropy, so I'm glad you brought And it the way that I thought about entropy, you know, I think about it as a as a coin.

对吧？

Right?

如果你有一枚硬币，一面是熵，另一面是信息，这两者其实是同一枚硬币的两面。

If you had a coin and you had entropy on one side and information on the other, these are two sides of the same coin.

因此，当你减少熵时，你就增加了系统中的信息。

So when you reduce entropy, you increase information through a system.

虽然熵通常被定义为一种自然过程，即从某种有益的状态走向平庸的状态，但我对它的理解不同。

So while entropy is often defined as being this natural course of of of going from, you know, something beneficial to something average in this you know, I think about it differently.

我认为，所有价值创造都源于减少熵，增加信息，从而创造价值。

I think all value creation is the source of reducing entropy and actually increasing information and therefore creating value.

那么，如何减少熵呢？

And so how do you reduce entropy?

你可以做得更便宜、更好或更快。

Well, you do something cheaper, better, or faster.

想想亚马逊。

And so think think of Amazon.

比如，当亚马逊决定在线售书时，这在图书领域要便宜得多、好得多，也快得多。

Like, when Amazon, you know, decided to sell books online, well, that was way cheaper, way better, and way faster in the vertical books.

然后我们能扩展这个模式吗？

And then can we expand that?

当他们打造了一个单一平台市场，创建了一个更便宜、更好、更快的门户，接着搭建了连接第三方卖家的桥梁，再后来，我称之为‘穹顶’的Prime服务，通过提供一个可信赖的平台，让人们在线上找到价格更低或持平、且能在两天甚至一天内送达家中的商品，从而大幅降低了搜索成本。

And, you know, when they developed a one p marketplace and then, you know, created a portal that was cheaper, better, faster, and then a bridge to third party sellers and then what I I call a dome, which was prime, where you reduce search costs for people by giving them a place, a trusted place to find things online that is going to be at or better priced than anywhere else and have it available to your house in two days and now one day.

巨大的熵减。

Enormous entropy reduction.

那么，熵减的另一面是什么？

And and what do you what's on the other side of entropy reduction?

巨大的价值创造。

Enormous value creation.

因此，当我们思考一家公司可能拥有的八层护城河时，我们寻找的是竞争优势的各个层面。

So when we think about the eight layers of moat that a company might have, we're looking for layers of competitive advantage.

我们首先寻找的是熵减，或者说是更优、更进化的捕鼠器。

The first one we look for is entropy reduction or a better or more evolved mousetrap.

而且这始终是我们所关注的，你知道，是否在整体上通过创造更好的东西来让客户的生活变得更好。

And it's always the one that we're you know, is this in the in the scheme of of making life better for customers by doing you know, creating something better.

所以像万事达或维萨这样的公司就是很好的例子。

So this is something like Mastercard or Visa would be good examples.

这非常棒。

It and it's great.

因此，熵减也支撑着我们第二个支柱，即竞争优势之外的长期趋势。

So the entropy reduction also lends to just kind of our second pillar beyond competitive advantage, which is secular tailwinds.

你知道吗？

You know?

万事达和维萨所做的，是提供一种更便宜、更好、更快的方式，因为他们将现金和支票转变为通过信用卡和借记卡进行交易，这带来了巨大的熵减——信息在他们的网络中流动得更加顺畅，从而创造了巨大的价值，而这些价值可以归因于万事达和维萨的价值创造，我们断断续续地持有这两家公司近二十年。

So what Mastercard and Visa were doing is they were doing something cheaper, better, faster because you were taking cash and check and creating a means to, transact through credit and debit, which had enormous entropy reduction, information flowed more easily through their network, and therefore created enormous value, which could be attributed to the value creation of Mastercard and Visa, which is something that we've owned, you know, on and off for for almost twenty years.

顺便说一句，迪·霍克是这门课的演讲者，威廉，他是这个网络的架构师之一，也是我最喜爱的演讲者之一。

And Dee Hawk was a speaker in the class, by the way, William, who was one of the architects of of the network, one of my favorite speakers of all time.

他现在已经去世了，但我记得在他生命的最后几年，他通过Zoom和我们连线，他是我见过的最富有爱心的人之一。

He's since passed away, but I remember in his last years, you know, he did a Zoom call with us and one of the most special people I've ever encountered as far as his heart.

如果你的听众中有谁想了解他的书，《一为众》是我最爱的书之一。

And if any of your listeners want to you know, his book, one for many, is one of my favorite books of all time.

我还没读过，完全忘了去读这本书。

I haven't, and I've totally forgotten to read it.

有人建议我买这本书。

Someone told me to to get it.

所以，我得在我的书架上找找，这总是个挑战。

So, yeah, I I have to find it on my bookshelf, which is always a a challenge.

不好意思。

So sorry.

所以我打断你了，你刚才正在讲这七八层护城河。

So I interrupted you as you were going through these these seven or eight layers of of moats.

对吧？

Right?

所以‘进化型捕鼠器’是第一个，我们之前讨论过，其实它归结为熵的减少。

So evolved mousetrap is the first one, which we talked about, which is really it cuts down to entry reduction.

第二个是结构性竞争优势。

The second one is structural competitive advantages.

那么，什么是结构性竞争优势？

So what are structural competitive advantages?

我们寻找的是四个，或者实际上是五个，比如双头垄断。

We have four that we look for or five actually duopolies.

当你想到万事达和维萨时，竞争会演变为两个参与者，大多数时候都以理性的方式互动。

When you think of Mastercard and Visa, you have this the competition evolves to you have two players that are acting rationally with each other, most of the time rationally.

所以是双头垄断。

So duopolies.

这实际上是我们课堂上的第一个作业之一。

It's actually one of the first assignments that we do in the classes.

我让学生们列出世界上所有的双头垄断案例，因为这是一个寻找价值创造的好地方——两个参与者理性地瓜分一个大市场。

I ask the students to make a list of all the duopolies that exist in the world because it's a wonderful place to look for, you know, a place where value creation, where you have two parties acting rationally splitting a large market.

第二个是寡头垄断，这与双头垄断非常相似，但参与者超过两个。

The second is oligopolies, which is also very similar to duopolies, but more than two.

通常有三个。

Generally, three.

超过三个，竞争就会变得激烈一些。

When you get over three, gets a little competitive.

参与者越多，某个玩家做出非理性行为的可能性就越大。

You have, you know, more chance for for one player to act irrationally.

垄断，我们之前谈过TransDigm。

Monopolies, you know, we talked about TransDigm.

他们在许多市场中都拥有独家供应地位，属于小型垄断。

They have sole source position in many of their markets, small monopolies.

你拥有独家销售权，在一定时期内独占某种产品，这也可以称为垄断资源。

You have exclusive rights where you have an exclusive right to sell something over a period of time, which, you know, you could call a cornered resource.

第四个或第五个我们称之为某个领域的瑞士。

And then the fourth one or fifth one now is we call Switzerland of X.

当Snowflake进入数据云市场时，它位于三大公有云之上，也就是AWS、Azure和GCP，这让客户不必非得选择其中一个，或者把所有数据层都放在这三个中的某一个上。

So when you think of what's when Snowflake, you know, really came into the market in the data cloud, you know, they say it sat on top of the three public clouds, which was, you know, AWS, Azure, GCP, and it allowed for a customer to say, don't have to choose or or do all of my data layer through one of the three.

我可以使用Snowflake。

I can use Snowflake.

它是我的所有数据的瑞士，我可以通过它打破数据孤岛。

They are the Switzerland of all my data, and I can unsilo my data through that.

所以，你知道，某些行业，我们喜欢这种瑞士式的中立地位。

So, you know, certain industries, we like that Switzerland of exposition.

我们寻找的第三个竞争优势是规模。

Third layer of competitive advantage that we look for is scale.

规模是很明显的。

Scale is pretty obvious.

你获得规模后，就能在研发上扩大规模。

You gain scale, and you scale on your r and d.

你可以在广告上扩大规模。

You scale on advertising.

你可以在分销、物流、信息和数据上扩大规模。

You can scale on distribution logistics, information, and data.

所以我们逐一分析这些，看看规模优势在企业中是如何体现的。

So we kinda walk through those and see how scale advantages manifest in in businesses.

下一个是我最喜欢你写的章节之一，第四个我完全归功于尼克·斯利普，那就是规模经济共享——那些具有规模优势的企业，不把更多利润据为己有，而是通过降低价格或为客户提供更多商品和服务来分享规模优势，从而扩大护城河。

The next one, which is one of my favorite chapters that you wrote, I give full credit to Nick Sleep for the fourth one, which was scale economic share, businesses that have a a scale advantage, but instead of taking more profit, return those scale advantages in the way of lower prices or more goods and services available to the customer, which widens the moat.

这或许会延迟短期的自由现金流回报，但长远来看会带来更大的收益。

And it delays gratification on the free cash flow perhaps in short years or a bigger reward down the road.

我认为尼克在他的信件中出色地阐释了亚马逊如何效仿好市多，并清晰地阐述了规模经济共享的理念。

I think Nick did such a beautiful job explaining kind of how Amazon was patterning after Costco in his letters and articulated the scale economics shared.

这对他是如此深刻而精妙的洞察与顿悟。

It was such a brilliant insight and epiphany for him.

在实时阅读这些内容时，它也帮助我更好地理解了这个主题。

And in reading that real time, it it helped me illuminate on the subject as well.

所以这挺有趣的。

So It's funny.

一种论证的层面。

A layer of argument.

你知道吗，当蒙尼什·帕布里第一次读这本书时，我在它出版前就寄给了他，他给我发了一封非常温馨的留言。

You you know, when Monish Pabrai read the book the first time, I I sent it to him before it came out, and he he sent me this very lovely note about it.

是的。

And he said, yeah.

这实际上会改变我的投资方式。

It's actually gonna change the way I invest.

我问：为什么？

And I said, how come?

他说：因为那一章。

And he said, well, because of that chapter.

他说，你书中最重要的三个词是‘规模经济共享’，这有点有趣，因为我觉得书中还有更重要的内容，但令人惊讶的是，这个概念真的彻底改变了蒙尼什对未来参与这个游戏的态度。

And he said, the three most important words in your book are scale economists shared, which is kind of funny because I I mean, I think there are more important things in the book, but but it was interesting that that that one concept really, really shifted Monish's attitude to how he would play this game going forward.

是的。

Yeah.

这是一个美妙的概念。

It's it's a beautiful concept.

另外，今年当我邀请尼克来的时候，他正试图向他协助改进文化的企业传达短期思维与长期思维的区别。

And as a little aside, you know, when I had Nick in this year, he was trying to communicate short term versus long term thinking to his to a to a business that he was helping, you know, evolve their culture.

他只是开始列出短期思维与长期思维的对比清单。

And he just made started making a list of short term versus long term thinking.

他后来将这份清单发布在了他的基金会网站上，但这真是一个绝佳的例子，展示了延迟满足或企业长期价值的样貌，与常态形成鲜明对比。

He's since published this to his foundation website, but it was such a beautiful example of what that delayed gratification or long shelf life of a business looks like versus the norm.

这是我最喜爱的练习之一，

And it was one of my favorite exercises that

是的。

Yeah.

正如他向课堂阐述的那样，他与学生们分享了这份内容，我后来也做了，并且今天我还提到了它，因为它就打开在我电脑上，我现在已经整理了12页关于短期思维与长期思维的笔记。

You know, as he articulated to the class, shared it with the class, I I since had and I actually touched on it today because it's it's open in my my computer here, but I I've made now 12 pages of notes on short term versus long term thinking.

而这种规模经济共享是一种非常注重长期的思维方式，真正能践行它的人寥寥无几。

And, you know, this scale economic shared is a very long term orientated culture that that can actually do it, and very few people are willing to do that.

我会在本集的参考资料中附上链接，指向尼克在网站上对这一主题的详细分析。

I'll I'll include a link in this in the source notes for this episode to where Nick's breakdown of on this is available on on his website.

他在发布之前不久把这份材料发给了我，内容非常震撼，因为尼克所强调的这一点，不仅在商业和投资中极为深刻，在生活中也同样深刻——它触及了在越来越短视、越来越容易被各种事物带来的多巴胺刺激所左右的世界中，进行长期思考的整个理念。

He he sent it to me shortly before it came out, and it's very striking because part of part of what Nick is getting at is something that's incredibly profound in business and investing, but it's also incredibly profound in life because it it sort of taps into this whole idea of thinking long term in a sort of in a in a world that's more and more short term and more and more susceptible to these hits of dopamine from from everything.

前几天，克里斯，我带儿子去看纽约尼克斯队的比赛，这让我深受触动。

And it really struck me the other day, Chris, because I took my son to see the the New York Knicks play.

我这辈子只看过大约三场篮球赛，但那真是令人难以置信地有趣。

I I've only ever been to about three basketball games, and it was just unbelievable fun.

你可以明显感受到，这简直是一个多巴胺的国度。

And you could see that it's dopamine nation.

你可以看到，每隔不到十秒，就会有舞者出场，或者有大炮把T恤射向观众，诸如此类。

You can see the fact that you can't go more than ten seconds without dancers coming out or or a cannon to fire T shirts into the audience or you know?

在一个我们需要不断被娱乐活动、推特点赞和通知提醒轰炸的世界里。

And and so in a world where we need constant bombardments of entertainment activity, likes on our Twitter feeds and notification reminders and stuff like that.

我认为尼克所触及的这一点之所以如此有力，是因为它提供了一种完全不同的生活方式——无论是作为个人、公司还是投资者。

I think part of what Nick is tapping into that's so powerful is actually a totally different approach to living our life individually and as companies and as investors.

这说得通吗？

Does that does that make any sense?

是的，100%。

Oh, 100%.

是的，100%。

100%.

斯坦，我很想回到那个话题。

Stan, I'd love to return to that.

我想我们该完成关于竞争优势的各个层次了。

I think we'll finish the the layers of competitive advantage.

对。

Yeah.

我想谈谈另一个尼克非常理解的话题，那就是品质。

I'd like to to touch on another topic that I think Nick really understands well, which is quality.

对。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

因此，规模经济之后的份额是网络效应，这非常明显，但也是一个非常重要的层面。

So the after scale economic share is network effects, which are which are quite obvious, but a very important layer.

当然，万事达和维萨都享有这些优势。

Certainly, Mastercard and Visa enjoy those.

下一个则是客户心智份额。

The next one is customer mindshare.

也就是说，品牌所建立的声誉信任。

So, you know, the reputational trust aspect of a brand.

最后，我们还有很高的转换成本，这在软件领域尤其明显，特别是很多软件即服务企业或一般软件，要移除或引入这些软件的成本都非常高。

And then finally, we have the, you know, high switching costs, which we we see in software, particularly lots of, you know, software to service businesses or software in general, you know, enormous cost to kinda ripping that software out or bringing it in.

这就是为什么这些企业一旦建立起安装基础，就能成为非常出色的、长期产生自由现金流的业务。

That's why those businesses, once they're kinda built, installed base, they could be really incredible, you know, long term free cash flow generated businesses.

最后一个，第八个，也是我们一开始不会提到、但随着时间推移会变得极其重要的，是企业文化。

And then the last one, the eighth one, which is the the one that we don't start with, which becomes really, really valuable over time is culture.

当你看到一家公司拥有好的企业文化时，你就能感受到。

And culture is, you know it when they have a good one.

你知道的。

You know?

我想到了你提到的米奇·拉尔斯，他一直是这门课的常驻演讲者，你想想丹纳赫的文化。

And I think about, you know, you mentioned Mitch Rails, who's now been a perennial speaker in the class, and you think about the culture of Danaher.

丹纳赫以及现在的福蒂维，它们围绕持续改进建立了一套商业体系。

And Danaher and now Fortive and and, you know, they've built a business system around continuous improvement.

这种理念深深植根于它们的业务文化中，即我们如何变得更好？

And it's so deep in the culture of of their business as far as how do we get better?

我们如何迭代？

How do we iterate?

而最近，我认为它们甚至进一步将创新应用融入其中，如何保持创造力，如何思考哪些领域在增长，哪些已经趋于稳定，并持续优化整个企业的文化。

And now I think more recently, they've even adapted these applications of innovation as well and and how to be creative and how to think about what areas are growing, which was which have now become more static and constantly just improving the entire culture of the business.

看到这些真是太棒了。

It's it's wonderful to see.

你知道吗？看看丹纳赫自八十年代初以来的复利回报吧。

And, you know, look at the compounding returns of, you know, Danaher since early eighties.

这真是太非凡了。

It's it's extraordinary.

我的意思是，按每股计算的回报率，根据不同时间段，甚至更高。

I mean, it's it's per share level of returns or better depending on timeframes.

持续改进的理念显然不仅是你思考商业的核心，也是你个人行事方式的核心。

This idea of constant improvement is obviously central to your way of thinking about business, but also central to your way of operating yourself individually.

我认为这一点受到了你课堂上另一位演讲者彼得·考夫曼的影响，我们之前提到过他，他说：日复一日的微小进步，是宇宙中最强大力量之一。

And this is something that I think has been influenced by another speaker in your class, Peter Kaufman, who we mentioned before, who said that dogged incremental progress over time is one of the great forces in the universe.

你为它总结的短语是‘Piper心态’，其中P-I-P-E-R代表‘持续、渐进、永恒重复’。

Written your phrase for it is the piper mentality with p I p e r standing for persistent incremental progress eternally repeated.

你曾说过，这确实是任何成长事物的秘密，因为它解释了复利、进化以及所有随时间不断改善的事物。

You've said this is truly the secret to anything that grows as it explains compound interest, evolution, and anything that is improving with time.

我不知道你能否谈谈这一点，因为我认为这是人生中那些深刻的真理之一，一旦你理解了它：三十

I wonder if you could talk about this because I think it's I think it's one of those those deep truths in life that once you understand three:thirty

当你让自己顺应这种持续不懈改进的力量时，它几乎是不可阻挡的。

and you align yourself with this force of continuous dogged improvement, it's pretty unstoppable.

我完全归功于他。

And I give full credit.

当我提出PIPER心态时，我其实是在做我平时学习时常做的事——试图创造一个易于记忆的缩写或工具，来记住彼得那种坚持不懈的渐进式改进。

When I came up with the PIPER mindset, was I doing something I do in regular learning as I was trying to create a memorable acronym or tool to remember Peter's dogged incremental improvement.

我说，这太长了，也太笨拙了。

Said, that's too long and clumsy.

我们可以做得更好。

We can do better than that.

因此，为了减少混乱，我弄出了一个对我来说更易记的版本，虽然简单，但它包罗万象。

So in my in my goal of reducing entropy, I, you know, I came up with something a little bit more memorable, at least to me, and it's but it is everything.

我的意思是，关于复利，随着时间推移，我越接触它，就越觉得它不可思议、充满魔力。

I mean, one of the things about compound interest that I've just found so incredible over time, the more I work with it, the more magical I find it.

而且我认为，复利并不仅仅存在于投资领域。

And it's it's this thing that I don't think is is just lives in the world of investing.

复利是宇宙源代码中如此根深蒂固的一部分。

Compound interest is something so innate to the source code of the universe.

它在推动一切。

It's driving everything.

它在推动进化。

It's driving evolution.

你知道，如果你一路追溯下去，可能会发现一个类似于复利的有趣方程，只不过它被提升到了n次方，这真的很神奇。

You know, I think if you were to you kind of follow the thread all the way back, and you'd probably have some interesting equation that looks like compound interest that's just been played out to the to the power of n, and it's so it's pretty magical.

我们都是分形。

And we are all fractals.

对吧？

Right?

我们是这些普遍原则和规律的分形。

We're fractals of these general principles and laws.

因此，当我们以最契合、最开悟的方式生活时，我们就是在践行复利的真谛。

So we are just in our most aligned way, in our most enlightened path, We are living the truth of compound interest.

我们正在践行进化的真谛，并努力消除阻碍我们自身进步的摩擦。

We're living it of evolution, and we're trying to remove these frictions that are getting in the way or get getting in the way of our own improvement.

你知道吗，今天我重读我最喜欢的一本书时，读到罗伯特·佩西格说过的话，大意是我们所有人本质上都是觉悟的。

You know, I read something today as I was revisiting one of my favorite books here, by Robert Persig where he said something like, the realization that we're all enlightened.

只是那种认为我们并不觉悟的念头逐渐消散了。

It's just the falling away away of thinking that we're not.

是的。

Mhmm.

我认为，这正是这里发挥作用的复利秘密。

And and I think that that's the the secret of confident interest that's at work here.

你曾提到，如果你研究斯多葛学派的哲学家，比如赫拉克利特，或者道家的老子，他们也谈到美德的复利效应。

And and you've you've talked about how if you study stoic philosophers like Heraclitus or Taoists like Lao Tzu, they also talk about the compounding benefits of virtue.

所以，寻找那些能够复利的事物，或者有意识地培养复利行为——无论是善意、慷慨的精神，还是某些美德——这个想法非常深刻，我认为。

So this idea of finding things that compound or very consciously compounding, whether it's kindness or generosity of spirit or certain virtues, it's such a profound idea, I think.

也许正因为这些好处不会很快显现，我们常常忽略了眼前唾手可得的低垂果实。

Maybe because the benefits don't show up very quickly often, we kind of ignore this low hanging fruit that's right there.

我很想带你去一个地方。

I'd love to take you to a place.

你以前去过土耳其的以弗所吗？

Have you ever been to Ephesus before in Turkey?

加文，我没去过，我觉得没有。

Gavin I haven't, I don't think.

没有。

No.

我去过土耳其，但已经是很久以前的事了。

I've been to Turkey, but not for a long time.

我去的时候土耳其正非常热门。

I went when Turkey was was so popular.

我记得我们酒店的费用是每晚1200美元左右，幸好不是我付的钱。

I remember our hotel costs were, like, $1,200 a night, and and luckily, wasn't paying for it.

不过确实是这样的。

But it was yeah.

然后它就有点崩盘了。

And and then it kinda crashed.

现在我觉得我可能花更少的钱就能去一趟了。

Now now I think I could go for probably less.

所以我该再去土耳其一趟了。

So I I'm due for a a revisit of Turkey.

那我先给你埋个种子，我觉得你总有一天会去那儿的。

So I'll plant the seed, you'll you'll end up there someday, I think.

但那里有一座图书馆。

But it's a there's a library there.

它大概叫塞尔苏斯图书馆。

It was probably what it's called the it's called the library of Celsus.

关于塞尔苏斯，我们知道它大约建于公元100年左右，是当时最大的图书馆之一。

And all we know about Celsus, it was, you know, built shortly after about a 100 CE, and it was built as one of the biggest libraries of the time.

今天我们所知道的，只是它的立面，立面上有四位希腊女神。

And what we know of it today is this facade, and there's four Greek goddesses that sit in this facade.

如果你按顺序排列这些女神，我觉得她们的顺序其实正对应着我所理解的通向洞察力、通向批判性思维的路径。

And kind of if you order them, I think the order of the goddesses actually is the way that I think about the order of your path to insight, your path to critical thinking.

第一位女神是episteme。

And so the first goddess is episteme.

她是希腊的知识女神。

She's the Greek goddess of knowledge.

因此，我们在职业生涯的初期阶段主要是在积累知识。

And so we spend the beginning part of our careers kind of gathering knowledge.

我们阅读大量的书籍。

We're reading lots of books.

然后第二位是Sofia。

Then the second one is Sofia.

她是希腊的智慧女神。

So she's the Greek goddess of wisdom.

那么，什么是智慧？

And so what is wisdom?

智慧是应用的知识。

It's applied knowledge.

对吧？

Right?

让我们去积累经验。

It's let's get an experience.

我有二十年投资和研究企业的经验。

I got twenty years experience investing, studying businesses.

现在，我的智慧索菲亚开始与我的知识相伴。

Now I have Sofia, my wisdom, to kind of accompany my knowledge.

这就是那片认知的云。

So this is that cloud of knowing.

现在，这一切都是在回顾过去。

This is everything kind of looking backwards now.

然后我们进入一片未知的云，或者说，你懂的，这样一个阶段？

And then we get into this cloud of unknowing or this this period of you know?

下一个叫埃诺厄。

The next one is Enoea.

她是希腊智慧女神。

She's the Greek goddess of intelligence.

那么，什么是智慧？

And so what is intelligence?

智慧就是把复杂的东西变得简单。

Intelligence is taking something that's complicated and making it simpler.

而相反，无知或我说的不聪明，就是把简单的东西变得复杂。

And the opposite or ignorant or, I'd say, something that is unintelligent is taking something that's simple and making it complicated.

你在生活中经常能看到这种情况。

And you see that as pretty common in in lives.

但什么是天才呢？

But what is genius?

在这个相同的框架下，你知道吗？

You know, in that in that same framework?

那就是把一个问题或难题解决掉。

Well, it's taking a question or a problem and it's solving it.

实际上，如果你想想AlphaFold，当DeepMind和德米斯·哈萨比斯解决了蛋白质折叠问题时，这就是一种天才的表现。

It's actually taking if you think of like AlphaFold, when DeepMind and Demis Kasabe has kind of solved protein folding, that was a form of genius.

这是一种增强智能，真正让这个问题消失了。

It was augmented intelligence that actually made the problem go away.

所以，这种智能的概念是面向未来的。

So this this idea of intelligence is forward looking.

它关注世界以及世界正在如何变化。

It's looking at the world and how it's becoming.

它在减少熵。

It's reducing entropy.

它在创造智能。

It's creating intelligence.

因此，第四个，这回到了你的参考，是希腊女神的名字叫阿瑞特，她是希腊神话中的美德女神。

And so the fourth one, this comes around to your your reference, is the Greek goddess of Her name is Arete, and she's the Greek goddess of virtue.

而我所定义的美德或阿瑞特，也是品质，特别是动态品质。

And what I define as virtue or Arete is also quality and dynamic quality specifically.

所以当我们思考Arete，或者思考以高质量去做事时，我会想到罗伯特·皮尔西格的两本书，《禅与摩托车维修艺术》，这本书是尼克·斯利布最爱的，我们每年都会讨论。

And so when we think about Arete or we think about doing things with quality, you know, I think about Robert Persig's, you know, two books, Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance, which is a book that Nick Sleab loves and we talk about every year.

然后他的第二本书，更侧重于质量的形而上学或质量的哲学，他认为这是他最好的作品。

And then his second book, which really was much more about the the metaphysics of quality or the philosophy of quality, and he felt it was his best book.

当我读到这本书时，它彻底改变了我的认知方式。

And that is just when I read that, it just changed the way.

就像读到了尼克在共享中写的骨架一样，仿佛迷雾瞬间散去。

Was like it was like reading, you know, Nick's skeleton on shared, like, just the scales dropped from my eyes.

我心想，这就是了。

I'm like, this is it.

这本书叫《莉拉》，给不知道的人提一下。

And this book is Lila for people who don't know.

还有一本非凡的书，我最近和一群优秀的投资者讨论过，那就是佩里西格的文集《论质量》，我强烈推荐大家阅读，因为它包含了。

And and there's also an extraordinary book that that I I had a recent discussion with a bunch of great investors about this compilation of Perseix called On Quality, which I would really encourage people to read because it has yeah.

非常棒。

It's great.

我桌上也放着一本。

I have it by my desk as well.

书中收录了《丽拉》的摘录、《禅与摩托车维修艺术》的摘录，还有他妻子在去世后撰写的演讲、日记和信件摘录，讲述这些概念对她的意义。

It has excerpts from Lila, excerpts from Zen and the automotive cycle maintenance, and then also excerpts from speeches and diaries and letters from his wife who survived him talking about what these concepts meant.

这些概念相当深奥。

And they're quite esoteric concepts.

所以当你使用‘动态品质’这样的术语时，对很多人来说确实有点玄妙。

So when you use a phrase like dynamic quality, it's actually it's a it's a little bit mystifying to a lot of us.

但如果你把这种理念——这种对品质的执着——转化为你如何运用佩西格关于追求品质的洞见（‘武器化’这个词不太准确），它究竟如何帮助你？

But if you if you translate this into how this concept, this obsession with quality has actually how you've kind of weaponized what, it's the wrong word, but how you've weaponized what Persig figured out about the pursuit of quality.

我们该如何理解他所称的‘品质的形而上学’？他究竟发现了什么？

How does it actually help you, and how what what do we need to understand about what he figured out about the what he called the metaphysics of quality?

太精彩了。

Brilliant.

引言非常棒。

Great lead in.

在《丽拉》这本书中，也就是他的第二本书，他开始界定品质。

So in Lila, which was the second book, is where he started to delineate quality.

品质有两种类型。

There's two types of quality.

你有静态品质和动态品质。

You have static quality and dynamic quality.

我对静态品质的理解是，当我们给某物命名、对其进行分类时，它几乎就不再具有动态性了。

And the way I think about static quality is when we name something, we categorize it, it almost ceases to be dynamic.

它不再处于前沿边缘。

It's not on the horizon edge anymore.

它不再处于列车的最前端，这是罗伯特提到过的一个概念。

It's not on the leading edge of the train, which is something that that Robert talked about.

我认为我们有一种观念，认为我们了解某物，于是对其进行分类，把它放进一个方块里，用一个圈把它围起来。

And I think we have this notion that we we know something, that we categorize, we put it in a block, we put a circle around it.

当我们这样做的时候，它就不再具有动态性了。

When we do that, it it ceases to become static.

当企业因为官僚体系而开始产生熵时，比如GEICO就是一个完美的例子。

And when businesses start to create entropy in there because they have bureaucracies, I mean, GEICO is a perfect example.

当托德·图伯伯担任GEICO首席执行官时，它已经不再具有动态性。

When Todd Tuberber GEICO is CEO, it had ceased to become dynamic.

它变得静态了。

It had become static.

这是伯克希尔的皇冠明珠，但它已经不再具有动态性。

This is the crown jewel of Berkshire, and it had ceased to become dynamic.

这怎么可能呢？

How's that possible?

要知道，这是世界上最好的企业之一。

Know, this is one of the best businesses in the world.

这是因为官僚主义，领导层没有推动变革，你必须减少那些在那里形成的熵层级。

Well, bureaucracy, the leadership wasn't driving change, and you had to reduce those layers of entropy that were that were created there.

幸运的是，由于他们拥有成本优势和独特的所有权结构，能够更着眼于长期，因此可以重新恢复动态性。

And luckily, because they have this cost advantage and and uniqueness because of the ownership profile that they can be more long term oriented, they can come back to being dynamic.

但这种区分至关重要。

But that's that delineation's everything.

而且，正如尼克所描述的，我也这么认为：当你过着充满动态品质的生活时，你所做的每一件事、你接触的每一个事物，都是表达生活中动态品质的机会。

And, you know, the the way Nick talked about it and the way I think about it too is, you know, when you live a life of dynamic quality, everything you do, everything you touch is this opportunity to express dynamic quality in your life.

这体现在你泡一杯咖啡的方式，也体现在你每一次互动中，言而有信。

It's the way you make a cup of coffee, and it's the way that you every every interaction, being impeccable with your word.

我认为这些都构成了对一种品质文化、一种……的贡献。

I think all of these things are contributions to a culture of quality, a culture of.

这就是我对它的理解。

So that's how I think about it.

这是一种难以明确指出，但你却能感受到其存在的东西。

And it's one of those things where it's hard to it's hard to, like, pinpoint it, but you know it's there.

这是一种体验性的品质。

It's an experiential quality.

这是一种真实存在的体验性观察。

It's an experiential observation that exists.

当它不存在时，你也能感觉到。

And when it's not there, you also know it.

我本来想说，我在我的书里写过这个话题，既在关于尼克和扎克的章节里，也在‘补充资料与资源’部分做了备注。

I was just gonna say I wrote about it in my in my book, both in the chapter about Nick and Zach, but also in the in the notes on source I I guess called notes on additional sources and resources.

因为这是一个美好而深刻的理念，虽然模糊不定，却极其有力且实用。

Because it's such a beautiful and profound idea, and it's so it's so vague and nebulous, but actually incredibly powerful and helpful.

对于尼克和扎克来说，他们有一个非常简单的判断标准：这里什么是高质量的决定？

And so for Nick and Zach, they would have this very simple filter where they would say, well, what's the high quality decision here?

因此，他们会做一些事情，比如调整收费结构，让自己和扎克越来越难赚钱。

And so they would do things like changing their fee structure so that they made it just increasingly bad for him and him and Zach.

于是他们会说：好吧，我们怎么给自己找点苦头吃，让事情变得更艰难？

And so they would say, all right, so how do we put on a hair shirt and make it tougher for ourselves?

所以他们会说：好吧，我们把激励费用放在一个暂存账户里，好几年都拿不到手。

So they would say, all right, we'll take our incentive fee and we'll put it in holding pen so we won't get it for several years.

如果我们后续表现不佳，那就多年都拿不到报酬。

If we subsequently underperform, we won't get paid for years.

因此，他们一直在不断尝试以最优质的方式做事。

And so they were just constantly trying to do things that were the high quality way to do it.

我不知道，我觉得这是一种非常实用且有帮助的看待事物的方式。

And I don't know, I found this an incredibly practical and helpful way to view things.

当你在思考一些实际的事情时，我记得曾有过一场争论，有人打算大量购买我的书作为礼物。

When you're thinking about something practical, like I remember having this debate where someone was gonna buy a large quantity of my book to give as gifts.

我当时想，我觉得他们并没有拿到最好的优惠。

And I was like, well, I don't think they're getting the best deal.

我能理解为什么我的公关人员没有给他们最好的价格，因为这对我更有利——如果他们通过这家零售商购买，会帮助我提升畅销榜排名之类的。

And I can see why my publicist is not giving them the best deal because it'll help me more because if they buy it through this retailer, it'll benefit me in terms of bestseller lists and stuff.

所以你就会想，什么是这里最优质的选择？

And so you just feel like, well, what's the high quality decision here?

于是你会告诉对方，这种方式为什么对你不利，以及他们为什么这样安排。

So you would tell the person, here's how this isn't benefiting you, and here's why they're structuring it this way.

而令人惊讶的是，实际上我和莫尼什·帕布拉做过这样的事。

And then what was remarkable, and actually this is Monish Pabra I did this with.

莫尼什随后回来表示，是的，我会按照对你有帮助而不是对我有利的方式来做。

Monish then came back and said, yeah, I'll do it in the way that helps you, not me.

真正非凡的是，当你与真正高质量的人打交道时，如果你做了违背自己利益的事，他们反而会违背自己的利益来帮助你。

And so what was really extraordinary was when when you're dealing with really high quality people, if you if you do something that goes against your own interests, they then they then operate against their own interests to help you.

这难道不令人惊叹吗？克里斯，这些话有引起你的共鸣吗？

It's a it's an extraordinary does any of that resonate at all, Chris?

完全同意。

Oh, completely.

完全同意。

Completely.

我们内部有一个框架，用来思考企业如何与其交易对手互动。

And we have an internal framework that we think about with how you treat how a business interacts with its counterparties.

因此，我们将此称为双赢的本质。

And so we call this the essence of win win.

我们认为，任何不是双赢的模式，最终都难以持久。

And, you know, we think that anything that's that's not win win is unsustainable through time.

所以，你是否与每一个交易对手都保持一种高质量的关系？

So do you interact in a in a relationship of quality with every counterparty?

你知道的。

You know?

这包括你的员工。

That's your employees.

包括你的供应商。

It's your suppliers.

包括你的股东。

It's your shareholders.

还包括自然和社区，这正成为一个越来越重要的议题。

It's your nature and community, which is becoming a bigger topic.

而且，投资者正在要求与社区、气候变化以及整体自然建立一种关系。

And it's it's something that, you know, investors are demanding a relationship with with community, with climate change, with nature in general.

还包括监管机构。

It's with the regulators.

你和监管机构之间是双赢的关系吗？

Do you have a win win relationship with regulators?

你是否让监管机构更容易完成他们那项艰难的工作——找出那些行为不当的主体？当然，也要让客户更容易配合。

Do do you make it easy for the regulators to to to kinda do a hard job, which is to kinda find those, you know, actors that are not behaving, you know, make it easy for them, and certainly the customers.

实际上，我们在这个双赢框架中还加入了第七个要素，那就是竞争。

And actually, a a seventh one that we kind of include in our in our essence of win win framework is is competition.

听起来有点奇怪，但其实不然，因为如果你采取短期策略，破坏了整个行业的经济生态，那对你和你的竞争对手来说都是输家。

You know, how is which sounds kind of strange, but it's not really because if you are taking a short term tact, which is going to destroy the economics of your industry, well, that's win lose for you and for your competitor.

这种做法无法长期持续地创造和提升价值。

That's not long term sustainable to building and creating value.

因此，我们也会审视竞争动态中的双赢结构。

And so we look at the win win structure of competitive dynamics as well.

这真的——

It's really-

我认为这是一种高质量的行动。

That's an act of quality, I think.

是的。

Yeah.

人们听到这些时很容易走神，不再留意。

And it's really easy for people to hear this and for their eyes to glaze over and not to pay attention.

我真的想停下来，强调一下这一点，因为这实际上是我从你那里学到的最重要的见解之一——我认为，通过阅读你数百页极其出色的年终信件，我学到的就是这种与所有交易对手建立共赢关系的专注。

I really wanna stop and pause here and have people pay attention to this because it's actually this is one of the most important insights that I've learned from you, I think, from reading hundreds of pages of your really fabulous year end letters, is this this focus on win win relationships with all counterparties.

这是一个非常深刻的见解。

And it's it's a very profound insight.

你曾写道：唯一能够长期持续的系统，是那种与所有交易对手实现共赢的系统。

And there's there's something where you wrote the the only system that is sustainable through time is one that has a win win with all counterparties.

任何其他系统结构都是不可持续的，最终都会衰败。

Any other system structure is unsustainable and will eventually decay.

这是一个极其重要的见解：如果你忽视环境问题，或者忽视公司对员工的恶劣对待或压榨供应商，某种脆弱性就会悄然滋生。

And it's such a it's such an important insight that if if you ignore, for example, the environmental thing or if you ignore the fact that a company treats its employees badly or squeezes its suppliers, there's some form of fragility that creeps in.

因此，我认为目前正出现一种强烈的反弹，许多人攻击ESG运动，说它在某些方面存在严重缺陷、虚伪，甚至只是绿色洗白。

And so I think there's there's such a backlash at the moment with so many people attacking the ESG movement and and saying that it's in some ways deeply flawed and in some ways hypocritical and in some ways just greenwashing.

而且它非常容易受到这些批评的影响。

And it's very vulnerable to all of these criticisms.

和华尔街的一切一样，很容易被操纵，用来推销ESG这些原则。

And as as with all things on Wall Street, it's it's very easy to manipulate and use it to sell, you know, these principles of ESG.

但我认为你触及到了一些真正重要的东西，你不能忽视像多样性、包容性、公平性以及对环境的敏感性这些问题。

But I think you're tapping into something really profoundly important that you can't really ignore these things like diversity and inclusion and and equity and and being sensitive about the environment.

因为如果你忽视了，迟早会因此受到惩罚，因为它会带来一种脆弱性。

Because if you do, it's going to come and bite you in the butt sooner or later because it introduces a form of fragility.

你能谈谈这一点吗？

Can you talk about that a bit?

因为这真的非常重要，它重新调整了我们对可持续性的理解。

Because I this is really profoundly important and it's a recalibration of how we think about what's sustainable.

是的。

Yeah.

谢谢。

Thank you.

这个表述非常好。

That's a great framing of it.

本·格雷厄姆的一个原则，一直对我们如何定位自己至关重要，那就是安全边际。

One of the principles of Ben Graham that has always been most important to how we orient ourselves is margin of safety.

这个概念直接来自《聪明的投资者》。

And that comes right from intelligent investor.

你提到了市场先生和安全边际，分别是第八章和第二十章。

You had mister market and margin of safety, chapters eight and twenty.

当你与任何交易对手处于零和博弈时，你就引入了永久性损失的可能性。

And when you have a win lose dynamic with any counterparty is you're introducing this idea of potential for permanent loss.

所以我们一直都在思考这一点。

And so we always thought of that.

即使是像沃尔玛这样的公司。

Even something like Walmart.

多年来，沃尔玛与供应商之间一直是一种零和关系，而这种模式确实奏效了。

Walmart for many years had a win lose relationship with its suppliers, and it worked.

他们压榨供应商，运作得还行，直到出现了替代方案。

They'd squeeze their suppliers and it functioned okay until there was an alternative.

当亚马逊的替代方案出现时，你就会看到，他们立刻意识到：哦，原来如此。

And when there was an alternative to Amazon came along, you saw just there was a very quick Inspire said, ah, okay.

我们有另一个来源了。

We have another we have another source.

看吧，问题来了。

Here we go.

所以脆弱性早就存在了。

So the fragility was there.

你在客户身上也能看到这一点。

You see it with customers.

你还能看到组织如何对待环境，这些都非常重要。

You see it with how organizations, you know, treat the environment, and and these are all just important.

因此，我们始终从安全边际的角度来定位自己。

So we've always oriented ourselves from this margin of safety perspective.

我们觉得，以某种方式宣传自己，声称我们比别人更优秀，这感觉非常不真实。

It felt really just unauthentic to, advertise ourselves in some way that we thought we were anything better than others.

我们是基于价值投资的原则在做这件事，同时也在考验我们自己的价值观：我们是否愿意让自己的资本与这些公司及其理念保持一致？

We're doing it from value investing principles, and we're doing it with our own values at stake is, do we feel good about aligning our capital with these companies and what they stand for?

这一直是我们的核心理念多年，甚至在它成为需要明确阐述的内容之前就已经如此。

It's always been a key part of our approach for many, many years, even before it became something that you had to articulate specifically around.

杰森，我们先休息一下，听一下今天赞助商的广告。

Jason Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors.

当你经营一家小企业时，招聘到合适的人才至关重要。

When you're running a small business, hiring the right person can make all the difference.

合适的员工能提升团队素质，提高生产力，推动你的业务更上一层楼。

The right hire can elevate your team, boost your productivity and take your business to the next level.

但找到这样的人，本身就像一份全职工作。

But finding that person can feel like a full time job in itself.

这就是LinkedIn招聘的用武之地。

That's where LinkedIn jobs comes in.

他们的新AI助手通过匹配真正符合你需求的顶尖候选人，消除了招聘中的猜测成分。

Their new AI assistant takes the guesswork out of hiring by matching you with top candidates who actually fit what you're looking for.

它不再让你翻阅大量简历，而是根据你的标准筛选申请者，并突出显示最匹配的人选，帮你节省数小时时间，在合适的人选出现时快速行动。

Instead of sifting through piles of resumes, it filters applicants based on your criteria and highlights the best matches, saving you hours and helping you move fast when the right person comes along.

最棒的是，这些优秀的候选人已经存在于LinkedIn上。

The best part is that those great candidates are already on LinkedIn.

事实上，通过LinkedIn招聘的员工，至少留任一年的可能性比通过主要竞争对手招聘的员工高出30%。

In fact, employees hired through LinkedIn are 30% more likely to stick around for at least a year compared to those hired through the leading competitor.

一次就招对人。

Hire right the first time.

免费在linkedin.com/studybill发布你的职位，然后推广它以使用LinkedIn的新AI助手，更轻松快捷地找到顶尖候选人。

Post your job for free at linkedin.com/studybill, then promote it to use LinkedIn jobs new AI assistant, making it easier and faster to find top candidates.

免费发布职位请访问linkedin.com/studybill。

That's linkedin.com/studybill to post your job for free.

条款和条件适用。

Terms and conditions apply.

亿万富翁投资者通常不会把资金存放在高收益储蓄账户中。

Billion dollar investors don't typically park their cash in high yield savings accounts.

相反，他们常常采用机构投资者常用的被动收入策略——私人信贷。

Instead, they often use one of the premier passive income strategies for institutional investors, private credit.

如今，得益于Fundrise收入基金，这种被动收入策略已向所有规模的投资者开放，该基金已吸引超过6亿美元投资，分配收益率为7.97%。

Now the same passive income strategy is available to investors of all sizes, thanks to the Fundrise Income Fund, which has more than $600,000,000 invested and a 7.97% distribution rate.

随着传统储蓄利率下降，私人信贷在近几年成长为万亿美元级别的资产类别也就不足为奇了。

With traditional savings yields falling, it's no wonder private credit has grown to be a trillion dollar asset class in the last few years.

访问 fundrise.com/wsb，只需几分钟即可投资Fundrise收入基金。

Visit fundrise.com/wsb to invest in the Fundrise Income Fund in just minutes.

该基金2025年的总回报率为8%，自成立以来的平均年总回报率为7.8%。

The fund's total return in 2025 was 8% and the average annual total return since inception is 7.8%.

过往业绩不预示未来表现。

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

当前分配收益率截至2025年1月25日12:30。

Current distribution rate as of twelvethirty onetwenty twenty five.

投资前请仔细考虑投资材料，包括目标、风险、费用和开支。

Carefully consider the investment material before investing, including objectives, risks, charges, and expenses.

更多信息可在 fundrise.com/income 的收益基金招股说明书中找到。

This and other information can be found in the income funds prospectus at fundraise.com/income.

这是一则付费广告。

This is a paid advertisement.

2026 年，你终于要行动了。

2026 is the year you finally do it.

这一年，你不再只是空想，而是真正将它变为现实。

The year you stop sitting on that idea and actually turn it into something real.

我们每个人都有技能、想法和副业，知道它们本可以更有成就，但梦想与行动之间的区别在于迈出第一步。

We all have skills, ideas, and side projects we know could be more, but the difference between dreaming and doing is taking that first step.

Shopify 为你提供了在线和线下销售所需的一切。

Shopify gives you everything you need to sell online and in person.

数百万企业家，包括我自己，都已经迈出了这一步，从家喻户晓的大品牌到刚刚起步的初创者。

Millions of entrepreneurs, including myself, have already taken this leap from massive household brands to first time founders just getting started.

使用 Shopify，创建你梦想中的店铺非常简单。

With Shopify, building your dream store is simple.

你可以从数百个精美的模板中选择，并自定义以匹配你的品牌。

You can choose from hundreds of beautiful templates and customize them to match your brand.

设置也非常快捷，内置的 AI 工具可以撰写产品描述，甚至帮助编辑产品图片。

Setup is fast too, with built in AI tools that write product descriptions and even help edit product photos.

随着你的业务增长，Shopify 也会与你一同成长，帮助你从一个仪表盘处理更多订单并拓展至新市场。

And as you grow, Shopify grows with you, helping you handle more orders and expand into new markets all from one dashboard.

在 2026 年，别再等待，立即用 Shopify 开始销售。

In 2026, stop waiting and start selling with Shopify.

注册每月 1 美元的试用期，今天就前往 shopify.com/wsb 开始销售。

Sign up for your $1 per month trial and start selling today at shopify.com/wsb.

前往 shopify.com/wsb。

Go to shopify.com/wsb.

就是 shopify.com/wsb。

That's shopify.com/wsb.

在今年年初，让Shopify陪伴您开启新篇章。

Hear your first this new year with Shopify by your side.

好的。

Alright.

回到节目。

Back to the show.

有个人，我不知道你们是否知道，叫乔·科斯塔，他出版了一份非常出色的通讯，叫做《价值投资世界》，我强烈推荐。

There's a guy, I don't know if you know, called Joe Costa, who publishes an excellent newsletter called Value Investing World, which I highly recommend.

我订阅它，因为每天都能收到这些精心挑选的链接。

I subscribe to it because you get these sort of curated links every day.

多年来，他在通讯中多次引用过你，所以我了解到他是你的粉丝和仰慕者。

And and he's quoted you a bit in the newsletter over the years, and and so I knew that he was a fan and an admirer.

所以几个月前我给他写了信，问：有什么问题是你希望我向克里斯提出的吗？

So I I wrote to him a couple of months ago and said, is there anything you'd like me to to ask Chris?

他重点关注了这一点。

And he honed in on this.

他说，在你的一封年终信中，你谈到了双赢关系这个概念，并写道：要始终如一，要善良。

He said, in one of your year end letters, you you were talking about this whole concept of win win relationships, and you wrote, be constant, be kind.

他提出了一个重要的问题：一贯的善意如何融入到促进双赢关系的整体理念中？

And he raised the important question where he said, how does consistent kindness factor into this whole idea of fostering win win relationships?

是的。

Yeah.

我认为一贯性是建立信任的绝佳要素。

I think constancy is such a brilliant ingredient for trust.

而且，你知道，当你值得信任时，我认为与所有这些合作伙伴的关系就会发生变化。

And, you know, I think this, when you deserve, I think trust with your, all of those counterparties, it just changes.

我记得，很早以前我就从巴菲特那里学到了这一点。

I remember, I learned this from Buffett early on.

他说：如果我们有一丝声誉受损，我会毫不留情。

He said, If you lose a shred of reputation for us, I'll be ruthless.

这真的太对了。

It's so true.

我认为，一旦失去信任，要重新建立需要很长时间。

I think it's something that when lost, it takes a while to get it back.

因此，我认为保持一贯的善意，就是在构建一种应得的信任之网。

And so I think to be constant, to be kind is you're building kind of the seamless web of deserved trust.

我认为，这对任何人或任何组织来说都极其宝贵。

And I think that's something that is incredibly valuable for for any person or any or any organization.

我认为这一点也被低估了。

I think it's underestimated as well.

你突然发现，二十年前你善待过的人，会为你做出一些非凡的事情。

You suddenly find that someone you were kind to twenty years ago does something to you that's absolutely extraordinary.

我很欣赏像盖·斯皮尔这样的朋友，他们非常有意识地谈论着善意的复利效应，还有汤姆·盖纳。

And it's remarkable where I see friends of mine like Guy Spier, who really very consciously have been talking about the compounding of goodwill or Tom Gayner.

这又是那种起初看起来并不特别引人注目的事情。

It's, again, it's one of these things where it it may not seem very striking initially.

也许这就像锻炼或健康饮食一样，你知道，二十年后，你会看到那些真正理解复利型良好习惯力量的人所获得的巨大收益。

Maybe it's like exercise or good nutrition where, you know, twenty years later, you see the overwhelming benefits that accrue to the people who actually understood the power of compounding good habits?

加文，是的。

Gavin Yeah.

我们经常谈论复利的乐趣，这我认为最早是由沃伦在他的早期巴菲特合伙信中提出的，但我也会思考快乐的复利。

We talk a lot about the joys of compounding, which is I think first articulated by Warren in his early Buffett partnership letters, but I think about the compounding of joy too.

我认为，你能够给予他人的那些小小的善意，比如面对一个对自己未来感到迷茫的学生，你可以多花一点时间，甚至愿意为他做推荐人。

And I think that those little bits of kindness that you can offer others, whether it's a student who's coming through uncertain about what he wants to do, and you can spend a little extra time and then maybe lend yourself to be a reference.

我刚刚为我以前的一位助教写了推荐信，他正在全球各地面试不同的职位。

I just wrote a reference for one of my former TAs who's interviewing different places around the world.

能做这件事，真让我感到无比快乐。

Man, that fills me with joy to be able to do that.

这真不错。

That's cool.

是的，这是一件很美好的事。

Yeah, it's a lovely thing.

我想到另一件与此相关、但有点偏离主题的有趣事情：你桌上有一个棱镜，我想那是来自一艘捕鲸船的六面体物件。

I thought another interesting thing on a side note related to this whole issue of win win situations with all the counterparties is that you had a prism on your desk that I think was this six sided object that had been on a whale ship.

你能谈谈这个吗？

And can you talk about that?

因为我觉得这是一个非常有趣的想法，即你拥有某些能提醒你特定原则的实物。

Because I think it's such an interesting idea that you have physical objects that can remind you of certain principles.

你能说说这个物品是什么，以及它是如何让你联想到所有交易对手的这一原则的吗？

Can you talk about what the object is and what the how it how it reminds you of this principle of all of the counterparties?

是的。

Yeah.

我真希望我办公室里有一个，那样我就能拿给你看了，但我特别喜欢符号。

I wish I had one in this office because it I I'd have a prop to show you, but it's I love symbols.

我喜欢那种学习方式，这也是我自身学习方式的一个转折点：你知道，我通常会像大多数人一样，大量阅读、贪婪地吸收信息。

I love you know, the way I the way I learn and this was an inflection of my own learning is, you know, I would be like, I think most people is reading and devouring as much reading as possible.

但在我生命中的某个时刻，我开始问自己：我真的记住了这些内容吗？

But there was one point in my my life where I said, am I really memorizing this material?

我真的能回忆起来吗？

Am I really able to recall it?

彼得·科夫曼在这方面真是太出色了。

And this is something that Peter Coffman's just so brilliant at.

所以我需要创造一种机制，让我能在记忆宫殿中回忆信息。

And so I needed to create a mechanism that I could have in a memory palace a way to recall information.

一旦我开始构建一套适合我的架构和框架，效果就出来了。

And once I started to develop an architecture and and framework to do this, that worked for me.

我的学习和记忆能力因此呈指数级提升。

My my learning in recall just just went exponential.

对我来说，有效的方法是——你可能会听到我这么做，虽然我通常不分享，但我为想记住的内容创建缩略词。

And so for me, what works is, you know, you'll hear me this is internal because I often don't share, but I create acronyms for things I'm trying to remember.

比如，它可能只是一个简单的缩写，像 PIPER。

And, you know, it could be something as simple like PIPER.

如果你仔细分析双赢的各方，你会发现它们恰好拼出了‘essence’这个词。

If you actually were to dissect the the win win counterparties, you'd see that they spell essence.

你会发现，八个层级或七个层级的竞争优势实际上也拼出了‘essence’这个词。

You'd see that the eight layers or the seven layers of competitive advantage actually spells essence.

所以当我思考时，它会以某种方式浮现出来，因为本质上，我们正在尝试找出一家企业的本质及其竞争优势。

And so when I'm thinking it, it kinda wings at me in a way because I'm you know, that's essentially what we're doing is trying to find the essence of of a business, their competitive advantage.

这让我觉得这是真理。

So this strikes me as truth.

所以你提到的甲板棱镜，那个你在捕鲸船上看到的奇妙装置，在没有照明的时代，它能将船甲板上的光线通过透明玻璃折射，照亮船舱底部的区域。

And so the question you have about the deck prism, the deck prism is this wonderful that you'd saw you saw on whaleboats, but it was a way that that in those days, pre illumination, that light from a deck of a boat would strike this clear glass object, and it would illuminate the bottom quarters of a ship.

它实际上是一个相当酷的装置，因为如果船舱下方发生火灾，而所有人都在甲板上，他们也能看到火情。

And it actually served as a pretty cool device because if there was a fire below deck and everyone was above decks, they could see the fire as well.

所以它就是一个如此奇妙的东西。

So it's just as this wonderful thing.

查尔斯·W·摩根号捕鲸船，是我们现存的唯一一艘捕鲸船。

And the Charles w Morgan whale boat, which is the only surviving whale ship that we have.

它位于康涅狄格州的神秘海港。

It's at Mystic Seaport in Connecticut.

我找到一个复制品，它的形状是六边形的。

They have one replica that I found that's a hexagon.

这是一个美丽的透明六边形。

And it's this beautiful clear hexagon.

你实际上可以买到一个，我就把它放在我的书桌上。

You can actually buy one, and I it sits on my desk.

它几乎像一个镇纸，但让我想到六个边的属性，中心是第七个点，而‘本质’恰好是一个美丽的七个字母的单词。

It's almost like a paperweight, but it reminds me of those six sided attributes with the center being the seventh point, and essence just happens to be this beautiful seven letter word.

所以，双赢的本质，或者护城河的本质，当我审视科技领域的投资时，我会想，好吧。

And and so the essence of win win or the essence of moat, these are things as I look at the the tech prison round, like, okay.

这照亮了原本会处于黑暗中的东西。

This is illuminating something that otherwise would be dark.

我认为如何构建你的物理环境，这是一个强大却常被低估的理念。

I think this idea of how to structure your physical environment is such a powerful and underappreciated one.

我记得在帮助盖伊·斯皮尔撰写《教育型价值投资者》这本书时，我们经常讨论这个话题。

And I I remember talking about this a lot with Guy Spier when I was helping him with his book, The Educational Value Investor.

他曾经打算拍摄基金所有合伙人的照片，把它们挂在图书馆的墙上，以此提醒自己：我所投资的对象就是这些人。

And he, at one point, he he was gonna have photos of all of his partners in the fund taken so that he'd have them on the wall of his library so it would remind him, this is who I'm investing for.

所以我们谈到沃伦办公室里挂着他父亲的照片，比如，他父亲显然具有极高的诚信。

And so we talked about Warren having in his in his office a picture of his father, for example, who obviously had tremendous integrity.

我 literally 说，当我这么说的时候，我手里拿着一块从以色列北部一个洞穴天花板上掉下来的石头，那里是佐哈尔的作者西蒙·拜奥凯揭示佐哈尔的地方，佐哈尔是一部伟大的灵性文本，我几乎每天都会阅读。

And I literally I mean, as I say this, I I mean, in my hand is a rock that fell from the ceiling of a cave in the North Of Israel where Shimon Bayochai, the author of the Zohar, revealed the Zohar, which is like this great sort of spiritual text that I I read kind of most days.

这块石头当时砸在我母亲头上，那时她就在那里，所以我把它留着。

And the the rock fell on my mother's head when she was there, and so I have it.

所以，当你进行访谈时，我会不自觉地摆弄它。

And so, you know, when I'm doing an interview, I I'm kinda fiddling with it.

其中一部分原因在于，它能帮助我超越自己的自我。

And part of the reason is it's from you know, it's trying to get me beyond my own ego in some way.

同样地，它也提醒我一些灵性原则，让我努力少做些蠢事，多一点正直，但这是一场艰难的斗争。

And and likewise, you know, because it's a reminder of spiritual principles that that you know, to try to be less of a schmuck myself and to be a little bit more righteous, which is a tough battle.

然后我想起我的朋友布莱恩·劳伦斯，我想是盖伊最初介绍我认识他的。

And then I think of my friend Brian Lawrence, who who I think Guy introduced me to originally.

布莱恩在全国不同地区拥有大约四个办公室。

And Brian has about four offices in different in different parts of the country.

我记得他带我看过他家里的一间办公室，里面有一尊列宁的小雕像。

And I remember him showing me one of his offices in a home of his, and it had a a little statuette of Lenin.

他告诉我，他每个办公室里都有这样的雕像。

And he told me that he has them in each of the the offices.

他说这是提醒自己警惕教条，我觉得这个想法非常深刻。

And he said it's a reminder to beware of dogma, which I thought was such a powerful idea.

对吧？

Right?

这些实物能提醒你一些你必须铭记的教训。

These physical objects that remind you of of certain lessons you need.

想想查理·芒格提到的他办公室里的那两样东西。

Think of the two you know, the the bus that Charlie Munger talks about that he has in his office.

你知道的，他那里有一尊本杰明·富兰克林的雕像，还有一尊新加坡前总理的雕像。

You know, he has one of Benjamin Franklin and then the former prime minister of Singapore.

李光耀。

Lee Kuan Yew.

是的

Yeah.

李光耀

Lee Kuan Yew.

它们只是卓越的象征。

And, know, they're just symbols of of excellence.

当我环顾我的办公室时，我找到一个符号，当时我正在研究埃及象形文字，那是一个头发在波浪上方的图案。

And, you know, as I look around my office here, you know, there was one symbol that I found when I was kinda looking at Egyptian hieroglyphs, and it's a hair over a wave.

当我看到头发在波浪上方时，我觉得这是一个非常美的象征，于是我开始查阅相关资料。

And when I saw the hair over the wave, I'm like, that is a that is a beautiful symbol, and I started reading about it.

头发在波浪上方的象形文字代表字母W，或者希腊女神Wenit。

And, you know, the hair over the wave hieroglyph is the the letter w or the Greek goddess Wenit.

Wenit是被认为赋予生育力或带来更新的女神，她为尼罗河带来水源的更新，从而灌溉庄稼。

And Wenit was the the goddess that was believed that gave fertility or renewed, basically, the the renewal of water to the Nile, which then irrigated crops.

因此，它象征着重生。

So it was the symbol of rebirth.

所以，当我看到这个符号——我已经把它当作自己的象征时，我会思考：有哪些观念或教条是我可能带有确认偏见的？我是否愿意为了这些观念而‘赴死’，即放它们离去，以便我能重生为更真实、更深刻、更有洞察力的存在？

And so when I when I look at the symbol, which I've kinda taken to be my own, I think about what are those ideas or dogma that you say that I might have confirmation bias around that I that I'm willing to to die to those ideas, meaning let them go away so I could be reborn to something that's more true, more profound, more more insightful.

因为我们所有人都固守着这些本质上静止的偏见。

Because we all hold on to these biases that are kind of static in nature.

因此，这根波浪上的头发对我而言只是一个提醒：我在表达——比如我的投资组合，或者思维方式——时，是动态的还是静态的？是否在持续更新？

And so that hair over the wave is just a symbol for me to remind me of, am I being dynamic or static in my expression of, you know, maybe it's an investment portfolio that I have or or ways of thinking and just constant renewal.

你对待投资和生活的独特之处在于这种跨学科的学习方式：你研究土耳其神庙里的神祇与女神，研究埃及象形文字，或钻研物理学、生物学等不同科学领域，也研究东方哲学和历史。

One of the things that's very distinctive about your approach to investing in life is this this multidisciplinary type of learning where you're studying, gods and goddesses in temples in Turkey, or you're studying Egyptian hieroglyphs or different areas of science like physics and biology, or you're studying Eastern philosophy or history.

我记得你曾说过，你认为这种知识的跨学科复利效应，可能是个人最持久的优势。

And I remember you saying at one point that you think that this kind of interdisciplinary compounding of knowledge may be an individual's greatest enduring advantage.

你能谈谈这个观点的重要性吗？我认为这个观点深受查理·芒格和彼得·考夫曼的启发，你是如何自己培养这种优势的——深入不同领域，进行深度探索，然后从中提炼出对你的投资实践有实际意义的观念和思维模型？之后我们再聊乔什·韦德，因为他用了一个非常美妙的词——‘主题互联性’。

Can you talk about the importance of this idea that I think is very much inspired by Charlie Munger and by Peter Kaufman and how you develop this advantage yourself of of going into these different areas, doing these deep dives, and then drawing different ideas and mental models out of these areas that have a practical resonance for you as an investor because And then we'll talk about Josh Wade skin more later because Josh uses this beautiful phrase where he talks about thematic interconnectedness.

我认为，你正在触及的一点是：当你研究像埃及象形文字这样的领域时，你能看到某种主题上的互联性，这种互联性能照亮投资中的某些本质。

I think this is one of the things that you are tapping into is that when you study an area like Egyptian hieroglyphs, you're able to see some sort of thematic interconnectedness that that illuminates something in investing.

这虽然不寻常，但我认为，这对你而言是一种非常强大的优势。

And it's it's unusual, but it's a it's a very powerful advantage, I think, for you.

是的

Yeah.

我记得在学习初期，我对自己的思维过于单一感到沮丧。

The I remember early on in my learning process, I was frustrated with being one dimensional in my in my thinking.

单一思维可能表现为只在某一领域有深度知识，比如对某个行业非常了解。

And one dimensional can manifest by being having one depth of knowledge, so you know a lot about an industry perhaps.

但你也可能因为知识面太广却只浅尝辄止而变得单一，这种感觉非常不足。

But you can also be one dimensional by having a breadth of knowledge, but you just don't know a little about a lot of things, and that that felt very inadequate.

因此，我立刻思考：如何建立一个系统，让我既能拥有深度知识，又能具备广度知识？

So right away, I was like, how do I build a system where I can actually have a depth of knowledge and a breadth of knowledge?

于是我不得不重新调整自己的学习方式。

And so I had to reformulate how I was how I was learning.

于是我开发了一种方法，就是划分出一段段的时间块。

And so I developed a a method for, you know, taking blocks of time.

我会选择三个月为一个周期，在这段时间里尽可能深入钻研一个主题。

So I would take three blocks, three months, and I would go as deep as I could on a subject in those three months.

我会设定一个截止日期，然后继续下一个主题。

And I would set a deadline, and I would move on.

但这个主题可以是进化论，我会从全方位的角度来研究它。

But the subject can be something like evolution, and I would I would approach the subject from a 360 degree view.

有时我会通过艺术来探索，有时则通过诗歌。

Sometimes I'd approach it through the arts, sometimes through poetry.

我会从它的历史角度来研究，只想从它的起源开始，一直追溯到当下。

I would I would look at it through its the history of it, and I just wanted to touch it from all different well to find it from its origin story on, take it to the present.

这些主题可能涉及人类历史的领域。

And those would be I could be in areas of human history.

我可能研究生物学。

I could be in biology.

我可能研究物理学。

I could be in physics.

随着时间推移，我想：好吧。

And then over time, I was like, okay.

我的思维方式变得更加二维了，但我也在深度和知识广度上有所提升。

I'm I'm developing more I'm more two dimensional in my thinking, and I've I've developed a little bit more depth, more breadth of knowledge.

但后来我意识到，这并不是学习的最终表现形式。

But then I realized that wasn't really the the final expression of learning.

彼得向我介绍了这样一种观点：通过时间线来看待事物，发现事物在时间中有一条相互关联的线索。

And, you know, Peter kind of introduced me to this this idea of looking at a timeline and how there's an interconnected thread through time about how things manifest.

所以这第三维度是高度。

So this third dimension is is height.

当你从高度、而不仅仅是深度和广度来观察事物时，你就能看到全局。

And so when you view things from a height, not just depth and breadth, but height, you start to see the whole picture.

我提到了斯宾诺莎的那句名言：以永恒的视角看待事物，就是看到进化的整个时间线，事物是如何演变和进步的。

And I talked about that that Spinoza quote, to see things under the aspect of eternity is to see the the timeline of evolution, how things have have evolved, how they've progressed.

这正是对学习的一种情境化表达。

This is very much a contextual expression of learning.

你知道吗？

You know?