RWH033：与克里斯·布卢姆斯特兰探讨巴菲特与伯克希尔的启示

你知道吗，我偶尔会洗一下碗。

You know, I occasionally do some dishes.

我不洗衣服，草坪修剪外包出去了。

I don't do the laundry, outsource the lawn mowing.

我小时候总是拿着割草机，做所有的工作和项目，洗衣服、扫地、吸尘都干过。

You I kind of grew up with a lawn mower in my hand and doing all the all the jobs and all the projects, and I did the laundry and I swept the floors and vacuumed the carpets.

我的生活很奢侈，但我有足够的时间去做我想做的事，那就是我谋生的工作，但感觉并不像在工作。

I've my life, it's luxurious, but I have all the time to do what I'm interested in doing, and that's doing what I do for a living, which doesn't feel like I'm doing it for a living.

这纯粹是我喜欢做的事情。

It's just something I enjoy.

我的所有朋友、同事，再说一个我常对学生说的教训：如果你生活中有糟糕的人——我多年来一直用这个说法——就把这些毒瘤从你生活中清除掉。

And all of my friends, my colleagues, again, another lesson that I tell students is, look, if you've got bad people in your life, and I've been using this message for years, Get the cancers out of your life.

我说，你环顾一下这个房间，这个教室。

I said, you're gonna look around the room, the classroom.

这些人的绝大多数都不会成为你永久的朋友，除非你处在像哥伦比亚大学MBA项目这样的地方，那里你会拥有一个很棒的人际网络。

Very few of these people are gonna wind up being permanent friends, you know, unless you're in a a place like Columbia's MBA program where you're gonna have a great social network.

但是，我的意思是，你至今还和多少高中朋友保持联系呢？

But, I I mean, how many high school friends do you still spend time with?

你有多少大学朋友已经不再来往了？

How many of your college friends you don't?

我说，当你有了家庭，只要有了孩子，你的朋友圈就会随着孩子的活动和他们上学的地方而改变。

And I said, when you have families, to the extent you have families, your friend group is gonna change based on your kids' activities and where they go to school.

如果他们参加体育队，你就会花时间与那些体育队家庭相处，也会和学校里的其他家庭以及他们孩子的兴趣和活动相关的人来往。

If they're playing sports teams, you're going to spend time with the families of the sports teams and you're going to spend time with the families at schools and whatever their interests and activities are.

但从职业角度来看，如果你喜欢自己的职业，你的朋友和你的职业是相关的。

But from a professional standpoint, your friends and your profession, if you like your profession.

首先我说，如果你不喜欢你正在做的事情，每天到4点55分就看钟，那就说明你迫不及待想回家。

First I say, if you don't like what you're doing, you're looking at the clock at 04:55, it means you can't wait to go home.

如果你能找到其他更想做的事，那就去做吧。

If you can find something else to do with your life, do it.

因为如果你能找到一份既喜欢又能赚钱的工作，那真是再好不过了。

Because if you find something you can get paid to do that you like doing, you know, that's that's a great combination.

但我说过，要谨慎地构建你的朋友圈。

But I said, build build your friend group carefully.

而且，这些年我真的很幸运，结识了一些志同道合、并非千篇一律的绝佳朋友。

And, you know, I've been really, really blessed and lucky over the years to develop some wonderful friendships with like like minded, not cookie cutter.

我们看股票的方式并不相同。

We don't we don't look at stocks the same way.

但我有一群二十五到三十个非常要好的朋友，其中有几个我经常长时间交谈。

But I have a group of 25 or 30 really good friends, a handful in particular that I spend a lot a lot of time talking to.

有一个朋友，我通常每周会和他聊三四次。

One who I talk to three, four times a week, typically.

还有两个这样的朋友，一个我经常在本地当面交流，另一个则经常打电话联系。

Then two like that, spend a lot of time with one in person here in town and another on the phone with.

但如果你生活中出现了坏人，遇到了不道德的人——也许这是我小时候学到的教训，这很有趣，因为我立志过一种与我所见完全相反的生活，结果却有点像回旋镖效应。

But if you have bad people that enter your world, if you have immoral people, and maybe this is lesson that I learned when I was a kid, which is interesting because I lived and I set out to live an exact opposite life of what I had seen, a little bit of a boomerang effect there.

我家里还有一个兄弟，在同样的环境下，观察着相同的行为模式，却采纳了我觉得极其反感的行为方式，并选择这样生活，这至少是相当耐人寻味的。

I had another, my one brother in the house who, you know, in in the same setting, observing the same sets of behavior, co opted the behavior that I found so repugnant and has chosen to live his life that way, which is very interesting at minimum.

但我想对学生说的是：如果你身边出现了不道德、不正直的人，如果你身边的人因为虐待服务员之类的行为让你感到不舒服，那就把他们赶出你的生活。

But the message to students is, look, If if if you wind up with immoral, unethical people, if you wind up out with people that don't make you feel comfortable because they're abusive to servers, get them out of your life.

多和善良、正直的人为伍。

Surround yourself with kind people, good people.

所以，克里斯，我其实一直犹豫要不要问你这个问题，但你已经提过几次了，作为记者，我实在忍不住，希望你别介意。

So, Chris, I I sorta I I keep hesitating to ask you about this, but you've referred to it a a a few times, and there is the journalist in me that can't resist, so forgive me.

但你已经几次提到你成长的环境。

But, but you you've you've mentioned a few times the growing up situation.

我想知道，这是你的父亲吗？

I'm wondering, is this your father?

是你的继父吗？

Is it your stepfather?

你知道的？

You know?

当时到底发生了什么？

And what what was going on?

因为这显然对你产生了深远的影响，让你通过避免成为那样的人，而倾向于像鲍勃·史密斯、芒格和巴菲特这样的人，也包括你成长过程中对你产生深刻影响的足球教练们，他们都是你道德上的榜样。

Because it's obviously had such a profound impact on you in terms of you defining yourself by not being that way and by gravitating towards people like Bob Smith or towards Munger and Buffett or or also to your football coaches when you were growing up who who've obviously had a really profound impact on you as moral exemplars.

所以，如果你不介意我问一下，我想了解一下，你具体指的是什么？

And so I I just wanted to get a sense, if you don't mind me asking, of, like, what what is it you're referring to?

因为显然，你在那里经历了一段非常强烈且近乎创伤性的成长历程。

Because you obviously had a very intense and kind of traumatic formative experience there.

我不想过多涉及，也不会深入太多细节。

Well, I don't wanna get and I won't get into too much

是的。

Yeah.

说来话长。

To tell.

但今年我失去了我的母亲。

But I lost my I lost my mother this year.

她去世了。

She passed.

她简直就是不该吸烟的典型例子。

She'd be the poster child of why you shouldn't smoke.

她从12岁开始吸烟，每天抽几包，最终死于慢性阻塞性肺病。

She smoked from the age of 12 on a couple packs a day and wound up ultimately passing of COPD.

但她却和一个我从一开始就非常不喜欢的人走到了一起，原因有很多。

But she wound up in a in a relationship with somebody I really just didn't like for a whole host of reasons from the get go.

我觉得他的行为让人不安。

I found the behavior unsettling.

我只是观察到了一种并不美好的生活方式。

I just observed a way to live a life that that was not great.

在她的一生中，充斥着大量不诚实，以及对女性的不公待遇。

And throughout her life, there was just a lot of dishonesty the way women are treated.

我有意识地选择过一种完全相反的生活。

Very much in with intent chose to live my life a 180 degrees opposite.

我决心要做一个不同的父亲。

And I I set out to to be a different father.

因此，我特意以不同于我童年经历的方式抚养我的孩子。

And so I've gone out of my way to raise my kids differently than the experience that I had when I was a kid.

对我来说，积极参与他们的生活和活动，善待他们、公平对待他们，非常重要。

It was important to me to be involved in their lives and their activities, to be good to them, be fair with them.

能够担任他们一些青少年运动队的教练是一种荣幸，你也提到了我的橄榄球教练。

What a privilege to coach some of their youth teams, and you mentioned my football coaches.

我会逐一回顾他们每个人的名单，他们每个人都对我的人生产生了影响。

I go through the roster of each of them, and they all had impact to my life.

他们都是真正正直的好男人。

And they were all genuinely good men.

我与我的高中橄榄球教练布莱恩·麦格雷戈在生活里成了非常好的朋友。

I've got to be very good friends with my high school football coach, Brian McGregor, in life.

这些人都有原则，诚实正直，而且大多数人非常严厉。

And these were all men of integrity, and they were men of honesty and and most of them were hard.

我的意思是，橄榄球教练本来就很严厉。

I mean, football coaches are hard.

他们对球员要求严格。

They're hard on players.

但本质上，他们公平公正，教会了我许多关于如何做人、如何谦逊处世的人生道理。

But at bottom, they were fair and so many lessons of life on how to behave and how to behave with modesty.

所以，不是这样的。

So no.

我母亲刚在四周前去世。

I just lost my mom four weeks ago.

她接受了四周到五周的临终关怀，最后阶段发生了许多糟糕的事情，也许哪天我们喝啤酒时我再告诉你。

She was in hospice for four or five weeks, and there were just a lot of horrible things at the end that maybe I'll tell you over a beer sometime.

但是

But

是的。

Yeah.

我非常难过，感谢你与我分享这些。

I'm so sorry, and I I appreciate you sharing that.

我很抱歉让你经历这些。

I'm so I'm sorry to put you through that.

我在读你的年度报告时深受触动，尤其是在信的结尾，你提到她本应拥有更多快乐，而她的一生却缺乏足够的幸福，显然她经历了非常艰难的人生。

I I was very struck in reading your annual report that at the end of the letter, I mean, you you said she she deserved more joy in a life filled with not enough of it, and she'd she'd obviously had a very hard life.

但我也被你提到的另一部分深深打动，你说我不确定把年度投资信专门献给某人是不是一种惯例。

But then I was also really touched by a part where you were saying I I'm I'm not sure dedicating an annual investment letter is a thing.

我想以我母亲的精神说一句：不要让任何一天过去而不去经营你与最亲近之人的关系。

I do wanna say in the spirit of my mom, don't let a day go by that you don't work on relationships with those closest to you.

要尽可能经常让他们知道你有多爱他们。

Let them know as often as you can how much you love them.

在信的结尾，你还提到了一件非常动人的事，关于你之前提到的朋友杰夫·古德all，这位海军陆战队的成员，显然是一位身高六英尺四英寸、体重二百九十五磅的壮汉，目前正在与癌症抗争。

And then there was a really beautiful thing towards the end of the letter where you were talking about a friend of yours who you mentioned before, Jeff Goodall from the marines, who, you know, is obviously a big tough six foot four, two hundred and ninety five pound guy who said is beating the hell out of cancer at present.

你说，他总是会站在你身边，而且从来没人敢招惹他。

And you said, he was someone who would always kinda stand by you and and someone who could never be messed with.

然后你说：抱歉，杰弗里。

And you said, but sorry, Jeffrey.

你现在是第二名。

You're now number two.

没有人像鲍勃、你妈妈那样保护过我，你说她的孩子们是她生命的全部。

Nobody protected me like Bob, your mother, and you said her her children were her universe piece.

所以我觉得这是一个非常温馨的致敬之夜，就像我们之前谈到史密斯先生时那样，我想纪念你妈妈的回忆，她显然是一位了不起的人，无论在你童年还是后来的生活中，都始终坚定地守护着你。

And so I thought it was a it was a lovely tribute night in the same way that we talked about mister Smith before I wanted to, you know, honor the memory of your mom who clearly was remarkable in, you know, being this sort of staunch defender of you in through thick and thin as a child, but also later in life.

是的。

Yeah.

小时候，她确实如此。

As a kid, she she did.

我的意思是，她的一生都围绕着她的孩子们。

I mean, her life was all about her children.

我认为她忍受了一段本不该拥有的关系。

And I think she tolerated a relationship she really shouldn't have been in.

当这种行为变得如此恶劣时，作为成年人，我确实努力试图劝她结束这段关系。

And when the behavior got so bad, as an adult, I really worked to try to convince her to not be in the relationship.

但其中甚至还带有一点斯德哥尔摩综合征的成分。

But there was even a little bit of Stockholm syndrome to it.

如果我对我和母亲的关系有什么遗憾的话，那就是——我还没有完全想清楚，但可能是我没有足够努力帮她脱离那段关系。

And if I if I have any regret about my relationship with my mother, it's and I haven't thought this fully through, but it'll be that maybe I didn't do enough to get her out of that relationship.

但你知道，她自己也要为自己的决定负责，家庭对她来说很重要，尽管这段关系如此 misguided 和不寻常，也许我本可以、也应该做得更多。

But, you know, she also you make your own decisions, and family was important to her as misguided as and and and as unconventional as this relationship was, you know, perhaps I could have and should have done more.

但我，是的。

But I Yeah.

每个人都要为自己的决定负责，但要对母亲说‘你应该这样生活’，这真的很难。

She was say everyone's responsible for their own decisions, and it's hard with a mother to be the one who's like, here's how you should live your life.

是的。

Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

我告诉你，在她生命的最后几天里，临终关怀领域的人们都非常了不起。

And I tell you, being in hospice in her last days, the people in that world are wonderful.

而且，你知道，他们看到了，他们理解发生了什么。

And, you know, they saw they they they understood what was going on.

他们了解她的行为。

They they knew of behavior.

事实上，她的邻居们知道她的行为，也了解她生活中发生的很多事情，甚至一直到她生命的尽头。

Her neighbors, in fact, knew of the behavior, and they knew of a lot lot of what had gone on in her life and even to to the end.

他们对她非常支持。

And they were very supportive of her.

所以她有了一点点支持网络。

And so she had a little bit of a network.

但在她生命中，尤其是在她生命的最后阶段，有那么多善良的人。

But there were so many good people in her life, especially at the end of her life.

在我们最后的五六年里，是邻居们。

In our last five or six years, neighbors.

而在最后五个月里，她临终关怀团队中的一些成员设法给她带来了许多快乐，正如我在信中所说，在一个缺乏足够快乐的世界里。

And then in the last five months, certain members of her hospice team that managed to bring her a lot of joy, as I said in my letter, in a world that was devoid of enough joy.

所以最后甚至还有冲突，我就不细说了。

So and there was even strife at the end, and I won't get into the details.

最后几个月变得相当糟糕。

It would it got pretty ugly in the last few months.

但是

But

我真的很抱歉。

I'm so sorry.

她经历了一段我本不希望她陷入、更希望她能早点脱离的关系。

She she endured she endured a relationship that I wish she hadn't gotten into and I wish she had gotten out of earlier.

但我想，她这么做很大程度上是出于她心中想要维系家庭完整的愿望。

But she I think she did it in large part for her perception of trying to keep in her mind what was a family together.

我认为她忍受了大量疯狂的行为，是出于认为这对她的两个儿子来说是正确的选择。

And I think she tolerated a lot of a lot of madness in the spirit of thinking it was the right thing for her two sons.

所以我觉得你和我年龄差不多。

So I think you and I are pretty much the same age.

我想我们都是1968年出生的，如果我没记错的话。

I think we were both born in 1968, if I remember rightly.

这有点不公平，从很多方面来说，我的人生道路比你轻松，因为我的父母都非常爱我。

And it's kind of mean, I in many ways had an easier path than you because, you know, I had two very loving parents.

有时也有缺陷。

Flawed at times.

我母亲没有，但谁会听这个呢？我父亲那边偶尔有些缺陷。

Not my mother, but who who will be listening to this, but occasionally flawed, on my father's side.

我想知道，你是如何从如此艰难的童年中脱颖而出的？因为你拥有极其成功的职业生涯。

And I'm I'm wondering, like, how you how you were able to rise above this very difficult childhood because you had an extraordinarily successful career.

看起来你父亲也是一个很严厉的人。

It seems like it's I mean, it seems like your dad was also a tough guy.

我记得你好像写过一个故事，说他夏天让你去工作，要求你极其专注地干活。

I mean, I remember you you I think writing a story about how he would get you to work during the summer and work incredibly intensely.

究竟是什么让你没有被这段艰难的童年毁掉，反而成长为一个非常成功且健全的人？

Like, what what was it that enabled you not to be messed up by this really difficult childhood, but actually to become a very successful and functional human being?

这背后有很多原因。

I there's a lot to it.

我想，这可能是一种信任的问题。

I suppose I suppose it was it was it was probably a trust thing.

你知道，我始终对母亲当初陷入这段关系感到有些愤怒。

You know, I always harbored a little bit of anger toward my mother for being in that relationship in the first place.

但后来我逐渐学会了如何信任值得信任的人，而不信任那些不值得信任的人。

But I think what evolved of that is the ability to learn how to trust those that deserved it and not trust those that didn't.

也许这正是促使我采取逆向投资思维，以及以怀疑的眼光看待文字和言语的原因。

And maybe that's what led itself to the approach of the contrarian approach to investing and approaching the written word and the spoken word with a skeptical eye.

我的意思是，这会让你变得非常谨慎。

I mean, it's you know, it makes you a very guarded guarded person.

这最终也让我变得非常渴望成功。

And it may it it wound up making me very driven to succeed.

我的意思是，我必须把精力倾注到某个地方。

I mean, I had to channel my energy somewhere.

所以在橄榄球方面，我从不在举重室或赛前准备上被别人超越。

So I in in football, I was never gonna get outworked in the in the weight room or in preparation.

我从不在训练中被超越，对待学业也抱有同样的严谨态度，尽管学校对我来说非常轻松，但正如你所说，我真希望当时能学点希腊语和一些经典著作。

I did I'd never got outworked in a in a practice, approached academics with similar rigor, although school was very easy for me, and I wished I'd, to your point, studied Greek and some of the classics.

但我只是勉强应付过去而已。

But I I just did enough to get by.

我是个学术上的极简主义者。

Was an academic minimalist.

但当我真正投入到投资这个学术领域时，我却充满热情，因为我热爱它。

But then when I approached the academic side, my but the the the real academic side, my academic side of investing, I approached it with a vigor because I loved it.

但那并不是来自布斯商学院的表面知识。

But it wasn't what was the top side from from the Booth School.

而是你如何拆解一家企业？

It was how do you break down a business?

还有持续学习并热爱阅读财务报表。

And it was the cumulative learning and loving to read financial statements.

因此，我想我过去的某些经历一直让我充满动力，并且非常依赖自己。

And so I I suppose some of that background always made me driven and very just very dependent upon myself.

我非常愿意照顾好自己，确保自己一切安好。

Very willing to take very, very I needed to take care of myself and make sure I was okay.

但这些经历也塑造了我认为的自己，以及我对待他人的方式。

But that then lent itself toward who I think I am and how I treat people.

所有这些因素的综合影响。

The whole whole combination of things.

我从未真正清晰地表达过，也从未在对话中完整梳理过这一切。

I haven't I haven't I've never really articulated it and gone through it all in in conversation.

我心里很清楚，这一切是如何逐步演变的。

I have clarity in my mind about how things all evolved.

高中最后一年，我断断续续地住在朋友家的地下室里。

Senior year of high school, lived with friends in their basements off and on.

说实话，我八岁的时候就已经准备好独立了。

Just I was ready to be on my own when I was eight years old, frankly.

所以，很明显，你的职业道德是你摆脱困境的关键部分。

And so, I mean, it's it's clear that your work ethic was a huge part of getting you out of the mess.

我在你2020年写给客户的信中深受触动，你提到，我认识的最优秀的投资者似乎都带着一种被低估的斗志。

And I I was very struck in your 2020 letter to clients that you said the best investors I know seem to come at investing with a chip on their shoulder.

他们会比你更努力工作。

They will outwork you.

他们会比你更有竞争力。

They will outcompete you.

你还谈到了马里奥·加贝利的一句俏皮话：他想招聘博士，但这里的‘博士’并不是指拥有博士学位的人，而是那些贫穷、饥饿且充满动力的人。

And you talked about Mario Gabelli, his quip of, wanting to hire PhDs, but that's standing not for people with doctorates, but who are poor, hungry, and driven.

显然，你就是这样的人，你身上始终有一种强烈的专注和激情。

And that was clearly the case with you that there was there was always this intensity to you and this kind of fire to you.

在我看来，当你在教练孩子们踢足球，或在校园里指导年轻人时，这一点反复出现——那就是拥有出色的职业道德，这显然让你成为了一名杰出的橄榄球运动员，也让你成为了一名杰出的投资者。

And and it seems to me that's something that when you're when you're coaching kids football or you're mentoring kids on campuses, that that comes up again and again, just this idea of, like, having a really good work ethic, which which obviously got you to be an exceptional football player, got you to be an exceptional investor.

这么说公平吗？职业道德对你而言是否一直至关重要？

Is that is that fair to say that work ethic has just been absolutely central for you?

是的，确实如此。

Oh, it is.

当足球因伤比我预期更早结束时，我不得不寻找其他方式来转移我的精力。

And and when the football ended sooner than I thought it was gonna end for injury, I had to find something to rechannel my energy in.

我早已对投资产生了浓厚兴趣，它完全占据了我所有的注意力。

I'd become so curious about investing already that it it absorbed all of my focus, 100% of my focus.

你们关系很亲密吗？

And were you really close?

至今仍是如此。

Still does.

你当时有潜力成为一名NFL球员吗？

Like, could you have been a a an NFL player?

你在大学时，还没受伤、脚骨骨折之前，水平真的那么高、那么认真吗？

Like, were you that good and that serious when you were at college before you got injured and broke your foot?

嗯，很难说，谁知道呢？

Well, hard I mean, who knows?

那一直是我的目标和计划。

That was always the goal and the plan.

你知道，一个好朋友最终成了我的替补，事实上，他还为钢人队打了三年球。

You know, a good friend wound up my backup at at the roommate, in fact, wound up playing for the steelers for three years.

我的意思是，你首先得在健康方面坚持足够长的时间，才能达到那里。

I mean, you have to first, you have to survive health wise long enough to get there.

我想，如果我没有受伤，继续打球并积累足够的训练经验，凭借我的敬业精神和与生俱来的运动天赋，我是八大联盟最强的球员。

I I think had I had I had I not been hurt and played, and gotten the repetitions, you know, given the work ethic, given some of my just innate athleticism, I was the strongest player in the big eight.

我整天泡在健身房，全身心投入锻炼。

Spent just lived in the weight room, lived for working out.

我非常敏捷，但谁知道呢？

And I was very quick and I I who knows?

但我确实知道，如果我继续打球，以我现在对这项运动几十年的观察，包括那些早期年份，我打的是防守线。

But but I do know had I played, having watched the game now for a lifetime and even even in those early years, I played defensive line.

回过头来看，我觉得我可能更适合打进攻截锋或中锋，而不是防守端。

I think I probably would have been a better offensive guard or a center than on the defensive side of the ball in retrospect.

但当我看到像沃伦·萨普这样的人打球时，那些名人堂级别的球员，天啊，我根本不可能达到那个水平。

But, when I saw guys like Warren Sapp play the game, hall of famers, dude, no way was I ever gonna play on that level.

我的意思是，那种体型加上运动能力，再加上原始的凶悍。

I mean, that just size mixed with athleticism, mixed with raw meanness.

我确实很凶狠。

I was very mean.

我的意思是，我确实挺凶的。

I mean, I was a very yeah.

我认为在足球世界里，你必须如此。

I think you have to be in the football world.

你必须得有点凶狠。

You have to you have to be have you have to be a little mean.

但像沃伦·萨普这样的球员，他打的是另一个层次的比赛。

But a guy like Warren Sapp was he played at a different level.

所以，你知道，我可能就是那种人。

So, you know, I would have been one of those.

如果你了解职业橄榄球的运作方式，就会知道你在三年后成为自由球员。

If you know how pro football works, you'd you hit free agency at three years.

你根本拿不到任何报酬。

You don't get paid anything.

我认为当我大四那年赢得全国冠军时，联盟的最低工资是那样的。

I think the league minimum when I was a senior we won the national championship my senior year.

但我大四那年因为伤病没能上场，那是脚踝骨折和膝盖问题造成的。

Didn't get to play my senior year for the injuries, which took me out the broken foot and the knees.

好吧，我们先短暂休息一下，听听今天赞助商的信息。

Well Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors.

当你经营一家小企业时，雇对人至关重要。

When you're running a small business, hiring the right person can make all the difference.

合适的员工能提升你的团队，提高生产力，让你的业务更上一层楼。

The right hire can elevate your team, boost your productivity and take your business to the next level.

但找到这样的人本身可能就像一份全职工作。

But finding that person can feel like a full time job in itself.

这就是LinkedIn职位的用武之地。

That's where LinkedIn jobs comes in.

他们的新AI助手通过为你匹配真正符合你需求的顶尖候选人，消除了招聘中的猜测成分。

Their new AI assistant takes the guesswork out of hiring by matching you with top candidates who actually fit what you're looking for.

无需再翻阅大量简历，它会根据你的标准筛选应聘者，并突出显示最匹配的人选，帮你节省数小时时间，在合适的人选出现时快速行动。

Instead of sifting through piles of resumes, it filters applicants based on your criteria and highlights the best matches, saving you hours and helping you move fast when the right person comes along.

最棒的是，这些优秀的候选人已经都在LinkedIn上。

The best part is that those great candidates are already on LinkedIn.

事实上，通过LinkedIn招聘的员工，至少留任一年的可能性比通过主要竞争对手招聘的员工高出30%。

In fact, employees hired through LinkedIn are 30% more likely to stick around for at least a year compared to those hired through the leading competitor.

一次就招对人。

Hire right the first time.

免费在linkedin.com/studybill发布你的职位，然后推广它以使用LinkedIn职位的新AI助手，让寻找顶尖候选人变得更简单、更快速。

Post your job for free at linkedin.com/studybill, then promote it to use LinkedIn jobs new AI assistant, making it easier and faster to find top candidates.

免费发布职位，请访问linkedin.com/studybill。

That's linkedin.com/studybill to post your job for free.

条款和条件适用。

Terms and conditions apply.

每一家企业都在问同一个问题。

Every business is asking the same question.

我们如何让人工智能为我们所用？

How do we make AI work for us?

可能性无穷无尽，而盲目猜测风险太高。

The possibilities are endless and guessing is too risky.

但袖手旁观绝非选项，因为有一件事几乎可以肯定：你的竞争对手已经在行动了。

But sitting on the sidelines is not an option because one thing is almost certain, your competitors are already making their move.

借助甲骨文的NetSuite，今天你就可以让人工智能发挥作用。

With NetSuite by Oracle, you can put AI to work today.

NetSuite是超过43,000家企业信赖的头号AI云ERP系统。

NetSuite is the number one AI cloud ERP trusted by over 43,000 businesses.

它是一个统一的套件，将你的财务、库存、电商、人力资源和客户关系管理整合为单一数据来源。

It's a unified suite that brings your financials, inventory, commerce, HR, and CRM into a single source of truth.

这些关联的数据让您的AI更智能，不再只是猜测。

That connected data is what makes your AI smarter so it doesn't just guess.

现在，借助NetSuite AI连接器，您可以使用任何您选择的AI，连接到您的真实业务数据，并提出您曾经想过的每一个问题，从关键客户到现金状况，再到库存趋势。

And now with NetSuite AI Connector, you can use the AI of your choice to connect to your actual business data and ask every question you ever had, from key customers to cash on hand to inventory trends.

无论您的公司年收入达到数百万甚至数亿，NetSuite都能帮助您保持领先。

Whether your company earns millions or even hundreds of millions, NetSuite helps you stay ahead of the pack.

现在，NetSuite免费提供商业指南《AI不再神秘》，请访问 netsuite.com/study 获取。

Right now, NetSuite's free business guide, Demystifying AI at netsuite.com/study.

这份指南免费提供，访问 netsuite.com/study 即可获取。

The guide is free to you at netsuite.com/study.

2026年，您终于要付诸行动了。

2026 is the year you finally do it.

这一年，您将不再只是空想，而是真正将其变为现实。

The year you stop sitting on that idea and actually turn it into something real.

我们每个人都有技能、想法和副项目，知道它们本可以做得更好，但梦想与行动之间的区别，就在于迈出第一步。

We all have skills, ideas, and side projects we know could be more, But the difference between dreaming and doing is taking that first step.

Shopify 为您提供在线和线下销售所需的一切。

Shopify gives you everything you need to sell online and in person.

数百万企业家，包括我自己，已经从大型知名品牌跃升为刚刚起步的初创创始人。

Millions of entrepreneurs, including myself, have already taken this leap from massive household brands to first time founders just getting started.

使用 Shopify，打造您的梦想店铺非常简单。

With Shopify, building your dream store is simple.

您可以从数百种精美的模板中选择，并自定义以匹配您的品牌。

You can choose from hundreds of beautiful templates and customize them to match your brand.

设置也非常快速，内置的 AI 工具可以撰写产品描述，甚至帮助编辑产品图片。

Setup is fast too, with built in AI tools that write product descriptions and even help edit product photos.

随着您的业务增长，Shopify 也会与您一同成长，帮助您从一个仪表板处理更多订单并拓展新市场。

And as you grow, Shopify grows with you, helping you handle more orders and expand into new markets all from one dashboard.

在 2026 年，别再等待，立即用 Shopify 开始销售。

In 2026, stop waiting and start selling with Shopify.

注册每月 1 美元的试用版，今天就前往 shopify.com/wsb 开始销售吧。

Sign up for your $1 per month trial and start selling today at shopify.com/wsb.

前往 shopify.com/wsb。

Go to shopify.com/wsb.

那就是 shopify.com/wsb。

That's shopify.com/wsb.

在新的一年里，让 Shopify 伴你聆听第一声胜利。

Hear your first this new year with Shopify by your side.

好的。

Alright.

回到节目。

Back to the show.

你曾经说过，当你回顾你的高中和大学橄榄球教练时，你说从他们那里学到的一切都能迁移到投资领域。

You also you you once said that when you look back at your high school football coaches and your college football coaches, you said everything I learned from those guys carries over to the investment arena.

当你想到橄榄球生涯中那些真正适用于投资的东西时，你具体在想哪些方面？

What what what are you thinking of when you think of the stuff that really applies from your football days that's that's really helpful?

我认为是坚持过程的态度。

I think it's the it's the it's the dedication to the process.

这是对练习和投入工作的执着。

It's the dedication to practice and the work that goes into it.

但我知道，另一个收获是与人的互动。

But I you know, the other takeaway is I think the interaction with people.

我认为这是对朋友网络的培养。

I think it's this cultivation of my friend network.

我的很多思维方式和对待世界的方式，都源于能花时间与好友相处。

I mean, you know, a lot of how I think and how I approach the world to being able to spend time with my good friends.

我们每年会聚一次。

We have a group that gets together once a year.

在这里，圣路易斯，我们会待上三天，讨论十到十二个想法。

Here in St.

这些人都是杰出的投资者和分析师，但也都非常友善。

Louis, we spend three days and get through 10 or 12 ideas.

这些人都很善良。

These are all marvelous investors and analysts, but they're all kind people.

我回到我的第一所高中。

I go back to my first high school.

上高中时，我八九岁就遇到了我的第一位橄榄球教练，一位名叫肯·艾克尔的先生。

High school, I met my first football coach when I was eight and nine years old, gentleman named Ken Acker.

他可能和我年纪相仿，但我当时只有八九岁，觉得他特别老。

He was he was probably my age, and I thought he was really old because I was eight and nine years old.

但他后来给了我极大的支持。

But he wound up being so supportive.

随着我早期打球逐渐变得非常刻苦，对这项运动的热爱也急剧增长，我们曾输掉一场对阵哥伦拜恩的比赛——就是那所著名的高中，不过它属于杰斐逊县的学校。

And as I evolved in my first years of playing to be a very driven player in practice and my love for the game exploded, We had a game that we lost against, Columbine, which is the Columbine with the high school, but it's a Jefferson County school.

我们输给了那些后来成为朋友的人，但没错，我们当时有一支很棒的橄榄球队。

And we lost a game against some of those guys who became friends later in life, but, yeah, we had a good football team.

我们队里有一些非常出色的橄榄球运动员。

We had some really good football players.

事实上，那支少年队是我们瓦塔雏鹰队。

Turns out on that little league, our Vata midget football team.

我们输掉了一场比赛，但我拼尽了全力。

We lost a game, and I played my heart out.

回想起来，我觉得我封堵了一次附加分射门和一次弃踢。

I mean, in retrospect, I think I blocked an extra point and a punt.

后来我开始想，以我那时的年纪，为什么有人会去踢附加分或弃踢？因为我后来也教过小孩子。

And then I'm thinking, why at that age is anybody kicking an extra point in a punt having coached little kids later in life?

我的意思是，八九岁的孩子踢球时，只会发生糟糕的事情。

I mean, only bad things can happen when you kick the ball when you're eight years old, nine years old.

但那场比赛后，我情绪很低落。

But I was I was pretty down after the game.

在那种场合下，他本不必这么做，但他注意到了我情绪低落。

And in a in a setting, he didn't have to do this, but he saw that I was down.

在所有队友和家长面前，大家赛后喝着百事可乐或可口可乐——我们当时也得到了这些饮料——他走过来，搂着我的肩膀，长时间地跟我谈我的品格、对比赛的热情，以及我是如何打球的。

And in a setting of all of my teammates and all of the parents, and you're having your your Pepsi and your Coke, whatever it was after the game, which we got, he came over and put his arm around me and talked at length about my character and passion for the game and how I played the game.

那个信息，就在那一刻，那个男人的善意，彻底改变了我。

And that that message, well, boy, that that at that moment, I mean, that that kindness from that man changed who I was.

真的吗？

Really?

怎么会这样？

How how so?

我只是觉得，你知道，当他让你有这种感觉时，他就让你觉得自己很重要、很好。

I just thought, you know, that when he makes you feel that, he just it it it made you feel that important and that good.

我想，这就是对待他人的方式。

And I thought, you know, what a way to treat other people.

即使在那么小的年纪，如何对待他人这一课，我觉得已经深深烙印在我的骨子里了。

And even at that early age, that lesson of how to treat other people, I think, became hardwired in my DNA.

是的。

Yeah.

我觉得这真的很鼓舞人心，当我回顾你的职业生涯时，看到你从一个非常艰难的起点出发，并且有意识地决定要做什么样的人。

I think that's something really inspiring when I when I look at your career and I see, you know, this trajectory where you came out of a very a very difficult beginning and, you know, you made a conscious decision about the type of person you wanted to be.

我不知道。

And I don't know.

这很有趣。

It's interesting.

看到你从 mentoring 大学生、商学院学生，以及通过 CFA 协会帮助人们，甚至多年来还参与青少年足球队等活动，给予回馈，这种喜悦真的让人感到非常温暖。

It's it's also really nice to see the amount of pleasure you get from mentoring college kids and business school students and people through the CFA Society that I know I know you've played an important role in, but also, you know, kids football teams and the like, really giving back over the years.

是的。

Yeah.

而且我觉得，嗯。

And I think, uh-huh.

你知道，我会想到这个形象，大概是我使用 Twitter 以及我在这个平台上所做的一些事情所塑造的，无论对错。

You know, I think about this this image, I suppose, that's developed by my being on Twitter and what I've done a little bit with that platform rightly or wrongly.

但你知道，我选择去揭露那些剥削散户投资者的骗子。

But, you know, I've chosen to take the the abusers of the retail investors, the charlatans.

当有人在电视上告诉他们的观众，你每年能赚 40%、50% 的时候。

You know, when somebody tells her constituents on TV that you're gonna make 40% then 50% a year.

如果我指出这种行为，我想很多人会觉得我可能是个相当讨厌的人。

And if I call that behavior out, I think there are a lot of people that think I'm probably quite a bit of a jerk.

上个月我刚参加了在瑞士举行的约翰会议。

And I was just at the at the John conference in Switzerland last month.

其中一位只通过推特认识我的人发了一张我们三个人的照片，他的评论是：和克里斯相处一下，你会发现他其实是个非常友善的人。

And one of the guys who I think who only knew me, I think, from Twitter, put out a a picture of three of us, and his comment was spend time with Chris, and he's remarkably a very nice guy.

所以

So

我觉得你对人们被虐待、被欺骗、被蒙蔽有一种正义的愤怒。

I think you have a sense of righteous indignation about people being abused, lied to, deceived.

我不知道该怎么说。

And it's I I don't know.

我认为从心理学角度来看，这和你经历过的那些事情是相符的。

I think I think it makes a lot of sense psychologically given what you came through.

我觉得你已经以一种非常有力的方式将这种情绪转化了，因为投资行业确实存在大量欺骗行为，正如你所说，还有那些骗子的宣传。

And I I think you've harnessed it in a really powerful way because there is there is a lot of deception, and as you put it, Charlatan promotion within the investment industry.

而这些涉及的是人们的毕生积蓄。

And this is people's life savings.

我的意思是，对很多人来说，这都是血汗钱。

I mean, it's it's it's blood money for a lot of people.

所以，我的意思是，我通常不太会点名批评别人，因为我不确定。

And so I I mean, I I tend not to call people out because I don't know.

我有点像那种压抑的英国人，而且我也怕对别人太过苛刻。

I'm sort of a repressed Englishman and also because I I don't wanna be too judgmental of other people.

因为我觉得那样会招来别人对我的评判。

So because I think it would invite judgment of myself.

所以我通常不会去采访那些我认为缺乏诚信的人。

And so I tend I tend just not to interview people who I think don't have great integrity.

所以我尽量去关注那些我认为令人钦佩、能作为榜样的人，那些我们可以学习的人。

So I sort of I try to shine a light on the people who I think are impressive and a good role model, sort of people we can we can learn from.

但我非常赞赏你敢于站出来，指出这些矛盾之处，因为你确实具备足够的专业知识，能够准确指出这些不一致的地方。

But I I I applaud you for the fact that you take a stand and that you you call out these inconsistencies, because you also you have the actual granular knowledge to be able to point out the inconsistencies.

当我想到像查马斯·帕利哈皮蒂亚这样的人时，印象非常深刻——如果我发音还算正确的话——他显然是一位非常聪明的人。

And I was very struck when I mean, again, I I don't really wanna be disrespectful of individuals, but, you know, I think of someone like Chamath Palaihepatthaya, if I'm pronouncing it even vaguely correctly, who obviously is a brilliant guy.

我的意思是，我记得曾经在一次会议上见过他。

I mean, I remember once seeing him at a at a conference.

我的天啊。

Mean, like, god.

这人真聪明。

This guy's smart.

但同时，他也是一位出色的推销者。

But at the same time, a brilliant promoter.

当他开始声称自己的回报率超过沃伦时，你那番剖析回报率扭曲的反驳非常有力。

And, you know, when he was starting to say that he his returns were better than Warren's, Your takedown that actually kinda analyzed the distortion of the returns and the you know, was very powerful.

是的。

Yeah.

我认为这是必要的。

And I think it was necessary.

你知道，伯克希尔的业绩其实并不需要辩护，但那种比较被严重歪曲、极不道德，以至于如果你没做过这个比较，我根本不会听说过他，或者根本不会注意到这个比较。

You know, not that the Berkshire record needed defending, but it was the compare the comparison was so maligned and so unethically done that, you know, I kinda reflexively you know, I never would have even heard of the guy had he not made the comparison or I'd seen the comparison.

结果，他这么做过好几次。

And wound up, he'd done it a few times.

在他最新的推特版本中，有人提到了他与伯克希尔的比较，而他声称自己从未做过这种比较，这真是非同寻常。

In his most latest in his most latest iteration on Twitter, somebody brought up the the his comparison to Berkshire, which he claims to have never made, which is extraordinary.

是的。

Yeah.

所以我认为这与其说是针对查马斯的恶意攻击，不如说——正如我所说，当我听他讲话时，我对他的聪明才智印象深刻。

So I don't I don't think it's so much about, you know, maligning Chamath who you know, as I say, I was impressed at how smart he was when I was just listening to talking.

他是个聪明且有魅力的人，或者像凯茜·伍德这样我从未见过或采访过的人，但我真希望有一天能采访她。

He's a smart, charismatic guy or Cathy Wood, who I've never met or interviewed, but I I'd like to interview her one day.

我认为她是一个有趣的现象。

I think she's an interesting interesting phenomenon.

更重要的是提醒我们的听众，你必须非常谨慎。

It's more about reminding our listeners that you gotta be really careful.

这是一个利益和激励严重错位的行业。

This is an industry where there's a lot of misalignment of interests and incentives.

而且，如果你能让自己与那些真正有良好道德、不向你收取过高费用的人站在一起，想想你多年前刚投资时的情景，上大学那会儿，佣金可是高达10%。

And, you know, if you can if you can align yourself with people who actually have good ethics and who aren't overcharging you and not I mean, even you think back at your first investment all those years ago, college, I I think, you know, the commission was 10%.

这可以说是很好地让你初次领略了华尔街的赌场本质。

It was kind of a a pretty good introduction to the casino aspect of of Wall Street.

所以，我不确定。

And so I I don't know.

如果非要说有什么建议可以带给我们的听众，那就是你必须对价格和估值保持谨慎，真正评估一下你所合作的人是否正直，或者是否有过不为股东着想、只做推销的记录。

I I if there's if there are messages for our listeners to take home, one of them is you gotta be diligent about things like price and valuation, and you've gotta really assess whether the people you're getting in bed with have integrity or, you know, a record of not looking out for their shareholders and just being promoters.

你不能盲目信任这些事情。

You you can't take this stuff on trust.

不行。

No.

确实不能。

You can't.

而且，就在伯克希尔最近几封致股东的信中，包括最新的一封。

And, you know, and and the last in the latest chairman's letter out of Berkshire, even the last several.

我的意思是，沃伦一直说，这些年来我们一直值得信赖。

I mean, Warren has said, essentially, we have deserved trust over all these years.

而且，你知道，我们有这么多长期信任我们的股东。

And, you know, we have owners who have trusted us for this long.

所以本质上，他是在说，你可以信任我们。

And so in essence, was saying, you can trust us.

但要分辨谁是骗子、谁是推销者，谁才是真正正直地做事的人，对普通投资者来说实在太难了。

But it's such a hard thing trying to figure out, you know, who the charlatans are and who the promoters are from, you know, who's, legitimately doing it the right way is so difficult for the the ordinary investor to ferret it all out.

而且，考虑到人们的注意力如此短暂，我想说，大多数人花在分析下一辆车该怎么买上的时间，比花在寻找未来三十年帮他们管理资本的人身上的时间还要多。

And with attention spans being sure, I'd like to say most people spend more time analyzing what their next car purchase is gonna be than they do who's gonna shepherd their capital for the next thirty years.

但你缺乏分析工具，既不知道如何为自己投资，也不知道如何将资本委托给他人，这正是为什么我认为沃伦说，对于不懂行的普通投资者来说，标普500指数是最佳的默认选择，因为它消除了费用带来的摩擦成本，同时实现了资产分散。

But you're not armed with the tools to analyze either whether how to go about investing for yourself or how to allocate allocation of that capital to somebody else, which is why I think Warren says the default of the S and P 500 for the typical investor that doesn't know what they're doing is such a suitable thing to do because you're eliminating the frictional cost of fees and you've got a diversified portfolio.

查理也不会反对，他会说，伯克希尔不是更好吗？

And Charlie wouldn't beg to differ and say, well, think Berkshire's better.

他可能会说，确实有一些主动管理者更出色，但你怎么找到他们呢？

He might say there are active managers that are better and there are, but how do you go about finding them?

如今，市场顶部又出现了如此集中的局面。

Today, you've got, again, such a concentration at the top of the market.

三十个百分点集中在七个公司身上，它们当前的市盈率远超30倍，这变得很危险。

Thirty percent and seven names, that group trading at at well north of 30 times earnings today, it becomes dangerous.

所以，如果你是一个刚开始通过401(k)计划进行双周储蓄的家庭，即使你为第一批标普500指数份额支付了过高的价格，也没关系。

And so, you know, if you're the family that's just starting out on a on a biweekly saving plan through your four zero one k and you overpay for your first S and P 500 shares, that's okay.

如果你一生都坚持有决心、有规律、持续地储蓄，最终你总会买到一些价格合理、甚至被低估的股票。

If you have a determined, regimented, consistent saving plan over a life you're going to wind up eventually getting some shares that are reasonably priced, some shares that are undervalued.

但如果你现在手头有大笔资金，却买进了那些市销率极高、定价近乎完美、已经计入了不可能实现前景的企业——尤其是现在像苹果这样的大公司，它在伯克希尔投资组合中的占比已达50%。

But if you have real money today and you've backed into these high price to sales businesses that are pricing almost too much perfection, pricing in the implausible outcome, especially now with some of these bigger business, even Apple that's now 50% of the Berkshire portfolio.

伯克希尔的沃伦已经把自己逼进了‘永不卖出’的死胡同。

Berkshire's Warren's kind of cornered himself into the box of, Well, it's become a never sell.

它占了一半，市盈率高达33倍。

Well, it's half and it's 33 times earnings.

你面对的是一个规模庞大的企业，其营收已经足够巨大，即使在回购股票之后，每股收益的增长率也很难再超过个位数的高位。

And you've got a big business, you know, doing sufficiently large number of sales revenue that that thing can't grow much more than maybe a high single digit on a earnings per share basis after share repurchases.

所以，他知道得晚了些，可可可乐在市盈率达到50倍左右时本该卖出。

And so, you know, he acknowledged later in the game that Coca Cola probably should have been sold when it traded at at, say, 50 times earnings.

所以，我希望苹果的持仓能在某个价位被减持，因为即使扣除21%的企业税率后，其收益前景也足以证明减持是合理的。

So, you know, I hope there's a price at which an Apple position might be trimmed because the economics of what you can earn out of it, even on a net of 21% corporate tax rate basis, now, you know, would justify a trimming of the position at least.

他几年前确实减持过一部分，但后来后悔了，因为股价和公司业绩都表现得非常好。

He did trim the position a couple years ago and regretted it because the stock did so well and the business did so well.

但任何资产，包括伯克希尔，都应该在某个价位被减持或卖出。

But there there's a price at which anything ought to probably be trimmed or sold, including Berkshire.

在某些价格水平上，我会减持我的伯克希尔持仓，尤其是从机会成本的角度来看。

And there are prices at which I would sell down my Berkshire position, especially from an opportunity cost standpoint.

但我一定会以税务高效的方式操作。

But I'm going to do it tax efficiently.

我需要尽可能多地保留税后收益，以便在机会成本排序最高的地方买入我最看好的标的，这才对得起向政府缴纳的税款。

I need to have as much after tax proceeds available to buy my best idea at the top of the opportunity cost stack to justify that shave to the government.

因此，应税资金和非应税资金之间存在细微差别。

And so there are nuances between taxable money and nontaxable money.

但你知道，这其实是个非常难的游戏，并不容易。

But, you know, it's it it it's a it's a really hard game, and it's not easy.

但它需要持续的思考、不断的担忧和风险管理。

But it it requires constant thought, constant worrying, risk management.

我认为，如果观察大多数伟大的投资者，他们会花更多时间思考可能会出错的地方，而不是会成功的地方。

And I think probably if you took some similarity to most of the the great investors, they spend a lot more time thinking about what's gonna go wrong than what's gonna go right.

而非专业投资者，甚至我认为大多数专业投资者，都不具备进行这种思考所需的心理素质或性格特质。

And the the the nonprofessional investor and even I think the majority of professional investors aren't armed with either the psychological wiring that's required to do that or the the temperament for approaching it that way.

是的。

Yeah.

或者技术知识。

Or the technical knowledge.

我的意思是，想想你在年度信中提到的四种估算伯克希尔价值的方法。

I mean, you you think of, you know, in your annual letter, the the four different approaches you take to estimating the value of Berkshire.

要拆解这些内容，需要付出巨大的工作量。

That's an enormous amount of work to break that down.

而且在2022年底，如果我没记错的话，我记得你说过，你的计算显示其价格大约在公允价值的74%左右。

And and at the end of at the 2022, if I remember rightly, I think you said your calculation was that it was basically at around 74% of fair value.

当时它的交易价格存在相当可观的折价。

It was trading at a pretty at a pretty generous discount.

而你当时的观点是，在未来十年里，它将跑赢标普500指数。

And your view then was that over the next ten years, it would outperform the S and P five hundred.

而现在，尽管它已经表现不错，但标普500也包含了许多被高估的成分。我知道你每季度都会更新你所持有股票的内在价值估算。

And now now that it's had a pretty good run, but also the S and P has a lot of inflated stuff, I know that you update your intrinsic value estimates every every quarter, I think, for for all of the stocks you own.

我问这个问题完全是出于私心。

I'm asking this very selfishly.

在未来十年，我是否仍应感到满意于持有伯克希尔？

Should I, over the next ten years, still feel happy to own Berkshire?

哦，伯克希尔的股票组合今年上涨了20%。

Oh, Berkshire's stock portfolio is up 20% this year.

苹果公司股价已回升，目前占投资组合的50%，创下历史新高。

Apple's grown back to where it's now at a record 50% of the portfolio.

但这些股票在投资组合中的占比，远低于可口可乐当年在伯克希尔还主要是保险业务时的比例。

But the stocks are a much smaller percentage of the portfolio than Coke was when Berkshire was much more of a pure insurance operation than it is today.

你得看看伯克希尔的各个组成部分，比如能源业务的盈利能力，其中伯灵顿北方圣达菲铁路公司有能力保留资本。

You take the moving parts of Berkshire, the profitability from the energy business where the Interbisions has the ability to retain capital.

它们每年赚取50亿美元，并全部保留，同时再增加同等规模的债务。

They're earning $5,000,000,000 retaining all of it, augmenting it with a like amount of debt.

这里就有50亿美元。

You've got 5,000,000,000 there.

铁路业务贡献了接近80亿美元的收益，回报率在个位数出头，基于企业本身的资本。

You've got what's pushing $8,000,000,000 from the railroad earning low teens returns on essentially the capital of the business.

制造业、服务业和零售业集团又带来了130亿美元的收益，这些业务在无杠杆资本下实现了合理的回报。

You've got another 13,000,000,000 coming from the manufacturing service retail group that are earning adequate returns on unlevered capital.

保险承保业务通常贡献30亿美元，还有来自持股比例不足100%但超过50%的子公司的数十亿美元收益，再加上你对股票投资组合的估值——目前约为3600亿美元的股票，占总投资组合的30%。

3,000,000,000, let's say, on a regular basis from underwriting, a few billion from the less than the the more than 20, less than than a 100% held businesses, and then whatever you think the equity portfolio is at what's now 300 and probably $70,000,000,000, dollars $360,000,000,000 in stocks.

你知道，这现在占了伯克希尔资产的三分之一。

You know, that's now a third of Berkshire's assets.

它们的资产将超过一万亿美元。

Their assets are going to be over a trillion dollars.

因此，所有这些收入来源的组成部分，使得伯克希尔今天的估值不如年底时那么便宜。

And so all those moving parts of the income streams, Berkshire's less cheap today than it was at year end.

今年股价上涨了大约11%到12%。

The stock's up what, 11% or 12% for the year.

所以在前六个月里，仅仅一个月——我们现在是七月中旬——它可能已经赚到了应有的利润，并且当前股价处于合理水平。

And so you've basically earned in the first six months in a month, here we are in mid July, it's probably earned what it should and it's trading at a reasonable price.

我认为它的交易价格有折价。

I think it's trading at a discount.

但如果它能维持140%的账面价值倍数，那么如今的账面价值比以前更高了，因为苹果公司的估值高多了。

But if it if it maintains this 140% a book and it's it's a more expensive book today than it was because, again, Apple is so much more expensive.

在2021年底时，我在估值中已经将苹果持仓下调了500亿美元。

A year at year end '21, I'd shaved the Apple position in my appraisal by $50,000,000,000.

去年股价大跌。

The stock got killed last year.

我取消了调整。

I eliminated the shave.

今天我会把它下调500亿到600亿美元。

I'd be shaving it by 50 or $60,000,000,000 today.

但总体而言，标普指数目前交易在21到22倍之间。

But all all in all, you have the S and P trading at 21 or 22.

利润率尚未恢复。

Margins have not recovered.

我刚刚完成了季度末的标普和投资组合分析。

I just did my S and P workup and the portfolio workup for quarter end.

标普500的每股收益为2.04美元，比2021年底低了4美元。

Earnings at $2.00 4 for the S and P 500 are $4 below where they were at year end '21.

销售额可能增长了17%。

Sales are up probably 17%.

因此，利润率从可能的峰值出现了压缩。

So you've had margin compression from what was probably a peak.

但你正在为22倍的估值买单，而这些利润 margins 很可能已经触顶，不太可能再上涨。

But you're paying 22 times what's probably kind of what's still peaky type profit margins where they're just all likelihood not going to grow higher.

如果你遭遇持续通胀——虽然目前通胀正在放缓，但未来十年或二十年可能出现持续通胀，那么你更有可能面临利润率压缩。

If you get inflation rolling, it's in decline at the moment, but you may have rolling inflation for the next decade or two, you're more likely than not to get margin compression.

我认为最乐观的情况下，目前指数的回报率在5%到6%之间。

I think the best case, the index at the moment is a five or 6% return.

在未来十到十五年里，你更有可能经历一段时期，其表现远低于预期。

More likely than not, you'll have periods where it's substantially underwater in the next ten or fifteen years.

而伯克希尔的回报率保守估计在10%到12%，前提是你保持当前的估值不变。

And Berkshire's a very conservative 10 to 12 if you hold the current you hold the current valuation constant.

它拥有非常稳健、可预测的收益流。

It's a very durable, predictable earning stream.

因此，我认为在当今这样的估值环境下，伯克希尔无疑是明确的选择。

And so I think Berkshire's hands down an easy bet from a valuation climate like you have today.

当一切都被洗牌时，就变成碰运气了。

When everything gets washed out, it's crapshoot.

我的优势在于，从1980年代末到1990年代初，当我的投资组合下跌20%，而市场下跌40%时，我的优势不如今天这么大——如今我的投资组合再次以9.5倍市盈率交易，收益收益率达到10.5%，是指数市盈率的一半。

My advantage, prospectively, in late 'eight, early 'nine, when I'm down 20 and the market's down 40, my advantage is less than it is in a period like today when I get a portfolio trading at nine and a half times earnings again, 10 and a half percent earnings yield, which is half the multiple of the index.

我认为我们拥有一支更优秀的公司和管理团队。

And I think we've got a better roster of businesses and managers.

伯克希尔的管理能力更强，从净额、基本上无杠杆的角度来看，你不会把自己搞垮。

Berkshire's just a better manager And on a net, essentially unlevered basis, you're not going to blow yourself up.

你永远不会醒来发现头条新闻写着‘伯克希尔哈撒韦正在与债权人谈判’。

You'll never wake up with the headline Berkshire Hathaway negotiating with creditors.

我的意思是，他们确实在和债权人谈判，但那是他们在收购那些因破产而出售的企业时的谈判。

I mean, they're negotiating with creditors, but it's the one where they're buying businesses because somebody's going bankrupt.

伯克希尔从来不需要担心资产负债表的问题。

It's not Berkshire ever having to worry about the balance sheet.

所以我把它看作是一只债券。

And so I look at it as a bond.

这是一家以10%到12%的净资产收益率盈利、并且交易价格仅略高于净资产的公司。

It's a business that earns 10 to 12 on equity that trades at a pretty modest premium to equity.

你知道，在低利率的世界里，这是一个能获得10%到12%回报的地方。

And you know, it's a place where you can make 10 to 12 in a world of low interest rates.

我认为，一些关键组成部分中内置了某些抗通胀机制，这使得它在当前环境下非常有吸引力。

And I think it's got some inflation protections built into some of the big moving parts that make it very attractive in the current setting.

我们都明白，它不可能再像前35年那样表现，但相比之下，我认为伯克希尔能实现的回报可能只有一半左右。

And we all know that it's not gonna do what it did in its first thirty five years, but, you know, relative to what I think is, you know, maybe a half return of what Berkshire can earn.

在我们当前的环境中，以当前价格来看，它至少值得持有大仓位。

It's deserving, at least in our world, at present prices of big position.

是的。

Yeah.

我也不确定。

I and I don't know.

每个人都想一击制胜。

Everyone always wants to kinda hit the ball out of the park.

我非常重视生存能力。

I kind of put a pretty high premium on survival.

我想冲到终点线，我总是觉得，比起其他许多事情，和伯克希尔一起我更有可能到达终点。

I wanna get to the finish line, and I always feel like I'm I'm more likely to get to the finish line with Berkshire than with many other things.

像巴菲特对生存的重视，深深打动了我。

Like like, Buffett's emphasis on survival resonates pretty deeply with me.

是的。

Yeah.

昨天我跟一个人通了电话。

I was on the phone with a guy yesterday.

我们在讨论资本回报和资本收益的概念，而不是所谓的收益率，而是在信贷领域回到面值的问题。

We were talking about that, you know, the the the notion of return of capital and return on capital and not so much not so much yield, but return to par in the credit world.

企业资产负债表上的杠杆率太高了。

You've got so much leverage on corporate balance sheets.

我们整个系统的总杠杆率仍然是GDP的350%。

The total leverage in our system is still 350% of GDP.

企业杠杆率非常高。

Corporate leverage is very high.

如果我们长期保持高位、尽管是滚动的利率，我的意思是，如果我们陷入衰退，美联储将再次回到零利率。

If we have persistently high, albeit rolling interest rates I mean, if we have a recession, the Fed will be back at zero.

他们会进入下一轮量化宽松。

They'll be at the next iteration of QE.

但企业资产负债表上的杠杆率太高了，而且大部分是短期和中期债务，许多将在2024年和2025年到期，在当前利率水平下，利息负担将从几乎可以忽略不计飙升到非常显著的水平，这将对利润率造成巨大冲击。

But we have so much leverage on the corporate balance sheet, and so much of it is short term and intermediate term, a lot of it coming due in '24 and '25, fuel rates at current levels, you have a massive hit to profit margins coming because the interest burden is going to grow from something that was almost nonexistent to something that's very real.

因此，如果你的运营位于EBITDA线以下而非以上，当利率高企且持续上升、你需要用更高利率的债务来再融资低息债务时，杠杆将在一个整体资产负债表过度加杠杆的世界中变得极其棘手。

And so again, if you live below the EBITDA line and not above it, leverage in a world of high and rising interest rates when you've got to refinance low coupon debt with higher yield, higher coupon debt will become very problematic in a world that's allowed too much leverage to build up on the aggregate balance sheet.

因此，处于无杠杆或低杠杆的一方，能让你实现你所说的生存能力。

And so being on the unlevered or less levered side of things allows for the survival that you talk about.

在我放你走之前，我想最后问你一件事。

I wanted to ask you one final thing before I let you go.

我记得听过你讲过一个很动人的故事。

There's a lovely story that I remember hearing you tell.

也许我在你的年报里读到过，关于一位叫艾伦·波特的高尔夫球手，她曾教过你女儿的高中球队。

Maybe I I read it in one of your annual reports about a golfer, Ellen Porte, and she had been teaching, I think, your your daughter's high school team.

她讲了一个非常精彩的故事，很好地体现了我们在讨论的关于在保持竞争和成功的同时选择正直之路的主题。

And she told a really wonderful story that gets at a lot of what we've been talking about in terms of choosing the path of integrity while also being competitive and successful.

我不知道是否可以请你讲一讲埃伦·波特的故事，如果你还记得的话，因为我知道你经常对大学生们讲这个故事。

And I wonder if I could ask you just to tell a story if you remember it of what happened to Ellen Porte, because I know it's a story you've often told to college students.

我记得很清楚。

I remember it well.

埃伦是我女儿的良师，也是我的好朋友。

Ellen was a was a great mentor to my daughter, and she's a great friend of mine.

她和她的丈夫都是很棒的人。

She and her husband are wonderful people.

她在高尔夫界非常有名，但在高尔夫圈外却几乎无人知晓。

Very well known in in the golf world, but but not known at all outside the golf world.

埃伦在二十多岁时才开始打高尔夫。

Ellen took up the game of golf in her early twenties.

她是一位出色的运动员。

She was a great athlete.

她原本是一名网球运动员，从小在高尔夫球场周围长大，但从未打过竞技高尔夫。

She was a tennis player, but grew up with around the golf course, but never played golf competitively.

她在成年后才开始打高尔夫。

She took up the game in her adult life.

她是一名教师，但后来开始打高尔夫，并在这些年里不断精进。

And she was a teacher, but took up the game of golf and wound up over all these years.

她现在——你知道的，我不会说她具体多大，但估计很容易就能看出来。

She's now, you know, I won't tell you how old, but she's probably easy.

她靠着本地的指导，就能把球技练到如此高水平。

Mean, she's she's eligible get the game at such a level with local instruction.

她开始赢得一些本地赛事。

She started winning some local tournaments.

她去找到了汉克·哈尼训练，但手头并不宽裕。

And she went down and worked with Hank Haney and didn't have the money.

汉克对她非常好，看到了她的拼劲，后来曾对俄克拉荷马州立大学男子高尔夫球队的人说：‘你们有谁早上六点在练习场见过那位在山坡上的女士吗？’

And Hank was very good to her and just saw the drive and at a point told the Oklahoma State men's golf team, that lady up on the hill, I mean, how many of you were here on the driving range at 06:00 this morning?

她把高尔夫球带进了小屋，因为她想在我上课前出来，练上两个小时。

Well, she took golf balls into her cottage because she wanted to get out before my lesson and get two hours of work in.

他说，你们有多少人早上和艾伦一起练球的？

He says, now how many of you were out hitting balls before with Ellen in the morning?

我知道，当然一个都没有。

I know, nobody, of course.

与此同时，艾伦作为业余高尔夫球手，已经赢得了七项美国高尔夫球协会锦标赛。

So Ellen, in the meantime, has now won seven USGA championships as an amateur golfer.

她就和杰克·尼克劳斯、泰格·伍兹一样，稳居顶尖四人之列。

And she's she's like right there in the top four with Jack Nicklaus, Tiger Woods.

她赢得了三届USGA女子中年业余赛和四届 senior amateur 赛事，至今仍以极高的竞技水平打高尔夫。

She's won, I think, three USGA women's mid ams and four senior ams, and she's still playing golf at a highly competitive level.

她还参加过柯蒂斯杯比赛。

And she's played on Curtis Cups.

三年前刚刚设立了女子元老公开赛，但她曾有幸担任过柯蒂斯杯的教练。

They just introduced a couple three years ago the women's senior open, but she was honored to coach a Curtis Cup.

我想说的是六七年前。

I'm going to say six or seven years ago.

对于那些不了解高尔夫的人，我们有沃克杯和柯蒂斯杯。

The Curtis Cup, for those that aren't in the golf world, we have the Walker Cup and the Curtis Cup.

男子方面是沃克杯，女子方面是柯蒂斯杯，都是顶尖业余高尔夫球手的赛事。

And it's the top amateur golfers on the men's side with the Walker Cup and on the women's side with the Curtis Cup.

他们对阵来自英国和爱尔兰的顶尖选手。

They play against the top players from Great Britain and Ireland.

所以这就像业余级别的莱德杯，美国对阵英国和爱尔兰。

So it's a Ryder Cup type format at the amateur level with The US against GBNI.

你知道，高尔夫是一项讲究诚信的运动。

You know, golf is a game of integrity.

你会自己给自己判罚。

You call penalties on yourself.

规则手册里有专门关于礼仪的章节。

It's the the the rule book has sections on etiquette.

艾伦把这一点深深记在心里。

Ellen takes that, just to heart.

这就是她作为一个人的本质。

It's who she is as a human being.

你知道，当你谈到鲍勃·史密斯的善良和出色，以及他极高的道德与伦理标准时。

You know, you talk about Bob Smith being kind and wonderful and all the the high level of morality and ethics.

我把库伦也放在同样的崇高位置上。

I put Cullen on a pedestal on the same level.

所以露西和我受邀前往圣路易斯乡村俱乐部，参加赛前媒体见面会，听她发言。

So Lucy and I were invited to Saint Louis Country Club to listen to her talk to the media in a gathering before the Curtis Cup.

她讲了一个关于参加一场

And she told a story about playing in one

的

of the

美国高尔夫协会锦标赛的故事。

USGA championships.

我想当她参加业余锦标赛时，你们要打两轮比杆赛。

And I guess she was in so you play when when you're playing amateur championships, you have you have two metal rounds.

我觉得参赛人数是128人，最后只有前64名能进入淘汰赛阶段。

There's a field of 128, I think, and you wind up with the top 64 that wind up in match play.

然后比赛一路淘汰下去，你必须赢下六场比赛才能最终成为冠军，这非常艰苦。

And then it plays all the way down, so you've got to win six matches to eventually be champion, and it's it's grueling.

所以她当时进入了淘汰赛，我想，像往常一样，她要么领先全场，要么差不多。

So she was in mental play, and I think she was, you know, as as she normally was, she was leading the field or not.

但她提到，每天晚上睡觉前，她都会在脑海中回放当天的高尔夫球局，思考自己哪里可以做得更好，哪里本可以做得不一样。

But she she said, you know, every night when she when she's going to bed, she replays the round of golf in her head, in her mind, and try to figure out what I could have done here, what I could have done there.

我不记得她当时排在第几名了。

I don't remember where she was.

我觉得那是在密歇根州某座著名球场举办的一场锦标赛。

I think it was I think it was one of the championships in one of the courses, great courses in Michigan.

我可能记错了。

I could be wrong.

但不管在哪里，她来到了一个三杆洞。

But wherever it was, she got to a par three.

她说：天哪，艾伦，你没有标准杆上洞。

And she said, oh my god, Ellen, you did not par the hole.

你打了柏忌。

You made a bogey.

她的球伴知道，在高尔夫比洞赛中，甚至在比杆赛中，你都要记录对手的分数，然后轮流记录。

And her playing partner did you know, in golf, in match play, and in even in metal play, you keep the opposite player score in your group, and so you rotate that around.

好吧，你知道，他们都记了三杆。

Well, you know, they they all wrote down three.

他们以为艾伦打了三杆。

They thought Ellen had made a three.

那轮比杆赛没有电视转播。

That metal round play wasn't on TV.

跟着球组走的记分员，你知道，大家都以为她打出了自己以为的分数。

The the the the the scorekeepers that walk with the group, you know, everybody thought she'd made whatever she thought she had made.

也许她报了分数。

Maybe she said the score.

接下来她说，第二天开车回家是她一生中最漫长的一段车程。

And the next thing she said was the she said the drive home the next day was the longest drive of my life.

而且，你知道，有些孩子根本不了解高尔夫，或者等等。

And, you know, had, you know, kids that don't know golf or wait.

发生了什么？

What happened?

发生了什么？

What happened?

她自己从比赛中退出了。

Well, she disqualified herself from the tournament.

没人知道。

Nobody knew.

你知道，本可以轻松晋级到比洞赛轮次的，但她填写了错误的记分卡，这会导致被取消比赛资格。

You know, it would have been that easy to move on to the match play around and but, you know, she she recorded an improper scorecard, which is is a disqualification from the turn runner.

就是在那个时候。

It was at that time.

所以她主动放弃了获胜的机会，因为如果她赢了这场第八届USGA锦标赛，我认为她就与职业或业余层面的历史最高纪录并列了。

And so she took herself out of the chance to win because, I mean, she's literally when she's if she wins the eighth USGA championship, I think she's tied for all time at either the professional or the amateur level.

而在如此高水平的比赛中，你经常要问学生：反思一下自己，是否也能做到这样的事。

And and, you know, out of out of that at that high of a level of a game, you know, just ask the students all the time, look inward as to whether you can do something like that.

我只想到艾伦的世界，她太棒了，能这样构建自己的人生，真是无比恰当。

I just I think of the world of Ellen, and she's so awesome, and what a what a proper way to construct your life to be able to do something like that.

是的。

Yeah.

我认为，丹，这是一个很好的总结。

I think that's a a great note on which, Dan.

这让我想起杰森·茨威格在我采访他时在播客里说的一件美好的事，他说：人们更应该问的是，我会把这推荐给我的妈妈吗？

It reminds me of a lovely thing that Jason Zweig said to me on the podcast when I was interviewing him where he said something like, what more people should say, would would I sell this to my mother?

我认为这种向内自省、问自己‘是的’的想法很可贵。

And I think that idea of looking inward and saying, yeah.

我最好别这么做，这主意不错。

I better not do that is is pretty good.

总之，我真的很享受和你的聊天，过去一周里，通过研读你的作品，我学到了很多，很高兴我们能如此深入地交谈，希望不久的将来我们能有机会当面见面。

And so, anyway, I've just really enjoyed chatting with you, and I I've I've learned a lot from studying your your writing over the last week, and it's I I'm I'm thrilled that we got a chance to talk in such depth, and I hope we'll we'll get a chance to actually meet in person before too long.

也许今年晚些时候在奥马哈。

Maybe in Omaha this coming year.

当然，越快越好。

By all means or sooner or sooner.

那太好了。

That'd that'd be great.

我十月份会去纽约。

I'll be in I'll be in New York in October.

很好。

But Great.

嗯

Well