RWH036：简约的力量 与安东尼·金斯利

你将拥有漫长的白昼、令人惊叹的美食、漂浮在奥斯陆峡湾上的桑拿房，而且你所有的对话对象都是真正塑造未来的人。

You got long days of daylight, incredible food, floating saunas on the Oslo Fjord, and every conversation you have is with people who are actually shaping the future.

这就是奥斯陆自由论坛。

That's what the Oslo Freedom Forum is.

从2026年6月1日到6月20日，奥斯陆自由论坛将迎来第十八年，汇聚来自世界各地的活动家、技术专家、记者、投资者和建设者。

From June 1 through the third twenty twenty six, the Oslo Freedom Forum is entering its eighteenth year bringing together activists, technologists, journalists, investors, and builders from all over the world.

其中许多人正站在历史的最前沿。

Many of them operating on the front lines of history.

在这里，你可以亲耳听到人们如何使用比特币应对货币崩溃，如何利用人工智能揭露人权侵害，以及在审查和威权压力下构建技术的故事。

This is where you hear firsthand stories from people using Bitcoin to survive currency collapse, using AI to expose human rights abuses, and building technology under censorship and authoritarian pressures.

这些不是抽象的概念。

These aren't abstract ideas.

这些是人们当下正在实际使用的工具。

These are tools real people are using right now.

你将与大约2000位非凡的人物同处一室——异见者、创始人、慈善家、政策制定者，这些是你不仅会聆听、最终还会共进晚餐的人。

You'll be in the room with about 2,000 extraordinary individuals, dissidents, founders, philanthropists, policymakers, the kind of people you don't just listen to but end up having dinner with.

在三天的时间里，您将体验到富有力量的主舞台演讲、关于自由科技与金融主权的动手工作坊、沉浸式艺术装置，以及在会议结束后仍持续进行的深入对话。

Over three days, you'll experience powerful main stage talks, hands on workshops on freedom tech and financial sovereignty, immersive art installations, and conversations that continue long after the session's end.

这一切都将在六月的奥斯陆发生。

And it's all happening in Oslo in June.

如果这听起来像是您会喜欢的场合，那您运气不错，因为您可以亲自到场参加。

If this sounds like your kind of room, well, you're in luck because you can attend in person.

标准票和赞助者票可在 oslofreedomforum.com 购买，赞助者票提供深度参与机会、私人活动，以及与演讲者的小团体交流时间。

Standard and patron passes are available at oslofreedomforum.com with patron passes offering deep access, private events, and small group time with the speakers.

奥斯陆自由论坛不仅仅是一场会议，它是一个理念与现实交汇的地方，未来正由亲历者们在这里构建。

The Oslo Freedom Forum isn't just a conference, it's a place where ideas meet reality and where the future is being built by people living it.

初创公司行动迅速。

Startups move fast.

借助人工智能，它们的开发和发布速度更快，也更早吸引到企业客户。

And with AI, they're shipping even faster and attracting enterprise buyers sooner.

但大单交易也带来了更大规模的安全与合规要求。

But big deals bring even bigger security and compliance requirements.

SOC 2 并不总是足够的。

A SOC two isn't always enough.

正确的安全措施可以促成交易，也可能毁掉交易。

The right kind of security can make a deal or break it.

但有多少创始人或工程师能抽出时间来处理这些，而不耽误公司建设呢？

But what founder or engineer can afford to take time away from building their company?

Vanta 的人工智能和自动化功能，能让您在几天内准备好应对大客户的需求。

Vanta's AI and automation make it easy to get big deals ready in days.

而且 Vanta 会持续监控您的合规状态，确保未来的交易不会被阻拦。

And Vanta continuously monitors your compliance so future deals are never blocked.

此外，Vanta 会随着您的业务一同成长，并在每一步都提供及时的支持。

Plus Vanta scales with you, backed by support that's there when you need it every step of the way.

随着人工智能改变法规和买家的期望，Vanta 清楚需要什么以及何时需要，并已打造了最快、最简便的路径帮助您达成目标。

With AI changing regulations and buyers' expectations, Vanta knows what's needed and when, and they've built the fastest, easiest path to get you there.

这就是为什么认真的初创公司会早早选择 Vanta 来确保安全。

That's why serious startups get secure early with Vanta.

我们的听众可以通过访问 vanta.com/billionaires 获得 1000 美元优惠。

Our listeners can get $1,000 off at vanta.com/billionaires.

访问 vanta.com/billionaires 即可享受 1000 美元优惠。

That's vanta.com/billionaires for $1,000 off.

好了，回到节目。

All right, back to the show.

所以我认为你们流程中一个非常独特的地方是，它围绕着另一个经过装订的清单展开，那就是你们的投资理念清单。

So I think a really distinctive aspect of your process is that it's built around this other laminated thing, which is your investment philosophy checklist.

如果我没理解错的话，你基本上是借鉴了詹姆斯·芬德利早期写下的关于市场有效策略的七八页信念内容，并将其转化为了一个投资理念清单。

And if I'm right in thinking, you basically took what James Findlay had done early on in terms of writing down seven or eight pages of his beliefs about what works in markets, and you then turned it into an investment philosophy checklist.

你能谈谈你是如何完成这个过程的吗？它如何帮助了你？在制定这种具体、固定的投资理念清单时，你是否受到了阿图·葛文德或其他人的启发？

Can you talk about how you went about that process and how it benefits you and how it was influenced by Atul Gawande or whoever in figuring out the importance of having this type of very tangible written down, written in stone philosophy checklist?

我从大约 2015 年开始，断断续续地与詹姆斯共事了二十年，但自从我职业生涯起步以来，如我所说，我于 2002 年重新加入了芬德利公园。

So, I've been working with James for twenty years in sort of 2015 on and off, but since the start of my career, as I mentioned, and then rejoined Findlay Park in 2002.

我们一直关注网站上那份文件，那是詹姆斯基于 1987 年经验撰写的投资理念，它是一份非常具有持久价值的文档。

And we'd always looked at this document on the website, which was James' investment philosophy from, you know, the 1987 experience, and it was a pretty timeless document.

但我觉得当我2015年左右接任首席投资官时，他们对我说：‘孩子长大了，让他自己试试吧。’

But I think the thing when I became CIO, I mean, handed over to me in sort of 2015, 'sixteen and said, The kid's grown up, let kid have a go.

所以我们曾有一段时间是联合首席投资官，后来他正式交棒给我，我说：‘拥有这份投资哲学很好，但我们怎么知道它真的被落实了呢？’

And so we were sort of joint CIO for a while, then he sort of handed over to me, and I said, Well, look, it's great to have this investment philosophy, but why don't how do we know we're implementing it?

我感觉在某些时候、某些情况下，我们并没有完全贯彻它，尤其是当新成员加入时。

And I didn't feel in all cases all the time we were implementing it, and especially as you bring new people in.

我当时读了阿图·葛文德的那本书，《清单革命》，大概就是那时候，或者几年前。

I'd read this Atul Gawande book, know, the Checklist Manifesto, I think at around that time or maybe a few years before.

书中提到，飞行员在起飞前会使用检查清单，即使他们完全知道该怎么做。

And the idea that a pilot has a checklist, and before they take off, they run through the checklist.

即使他们知道该怎么做，他们依然会逐项核对检查清单。

Even though they know what to do, they run through the checklist.

外科医生在手术室里也会使用检查清单，即使他们早已熟知手术流程。

A surgeon in an operating room has a checklist, even though they know what to do.

基金经理们却往往没有这样的检查清单。

You run through a checklist, fund managers tend not to have that.

他们以为自己能记住所有事情，甚至能靠一份八页的文档记住一切。

They think they can keep everything in their head and they can remember everything in an eight page document.

我知道自己没聪明到能这么做。

And I know that I'm just not smart enough to do that.

于是我跟团队说，我们为什么不把这份文件改成一份检查清单呢？

So I said to the team, why don't we try and put this checklist into Sorry, put this document into a checklist?

这真的是团队共同努力的结果。

And so it was really a team effort.

我们将其精简为29个要点。

We distilled it into 29 points.

七八年过去了，我们至今仍在使用它。

And seven or eight years on, we're still using it.

这些年来我们稍作了一些调整，修改了几个问题，但核心内容依然是自九十年代初以来经过验证的投资理念。

We've tweaked it a little bit over the years and tweaked a few questions, but essentially it is the investment philosophy that's been tried and tested since the early nineties.

我认为，它已经证明了自己的价值。

And it's proved its worth, I think.

这很有趣。

It's funny.

我第一次和查理·芒格交谈时，曾问他是否使用过清单。

I once asked Charlie Mungo, when I first spoke to him, I think, about his own use of a checklist.

他说：不，我都能记在脑子里。

He's like, No, I can just keep it all in my head.

我当时说：是的，但我觉得其他人做不到这一点。

And I was like, Yeah, but I don't think anyone else can do that.

我觉得——没几个人

I don't think- Not many

能像查理·帕克那样。

people are like Charlie Parker.

我的意思是，我是个智力很普通的人。

Mean, you know, I'm a person with very average intelligence.

我根本记不住所有这些事情。

I simply can't remember all of these things.

所以你就把它们写在清单上。

And so you put them down a list.

但这些问题本身，再次强调，都是常识。

But the questions themselves are, again, it's common sense.

其中超过一半与业务相关。

More than half of them relate to the business.

也就是业务质量和业务竞争优势。

So a business quality and business competitive advantage.

最终，我们想弄清楚什么是真正的质量。

And ultimately, we're trying to get to what is that quality?

我们希望投资于那些具有持久竞争优势的质量企业，这样我们才能对结果的必然性充满信心。

We want to invest in quality businesses that have enduring competitive advantage so that we can feel confident about the inevitability of the outcome.

而其他一些问题则涉及财务、自由现金流、杠杆、管理激励、对管理团队的信心、企业文化与使命。

And then a number of the other questions are around finance, financials, free cash flow, and leverage, and management incentives, and confidence in management, culture, purpose.

但其中很大一部分都与业务质量和竞争优势有关。

But the big chunk of them are related to business quality and competitive advantage.

我们试图投资于高质量的企业，这些企业能产生良好的回报，你可以长期持有，让它们复利增长。

We're trying to invest in high quality businesses that generate good returns, where you can just hold them and let them compound.

让我感到好奇的是，这份检查清单的三大核心部分之一，似乎聚焦于管理层，比如我们会问：我们是否认同他们的企业使命和文化？

It was curious to me that one of the three big chunks of the checklist appears to be about management and asking questions like, do we like their corporate purpose and culture?

他们是不是优秀的资本配置者？

And are they good capital allocators?

你能谈谈为什么你如此重视所投资公司的文化和使命吗？

Can you talk about this issue of focusing on the culture and purpose of companies that you invest in?

因为这听起来有点模糊、抽象。

Because it's a bit of a nebulous, vague thing.

但事实证明，这一点极其重要，无论是像伯克希尔或好市多这样的公司——我认为你都持有它们——还是亚马逊。

Yet it turns out to be hugely important, whether it's a company like Berkshire or Costco, both of which I think you own, or Amazon.

我记得你曾经说过，对于与文化相关的问题，你会在检查清单上给自己双倍评分？

And I think at one point, didn't you decide to give yourself a double score on the checklist for questions related to culture?

这对你的重要性非同寻常。

It's inordinately important to you.

没错。

That's right.

我认为，当你回望一些公司并思考它们为何成功时，虽然并不总是如此，但文化常常被低估了。

I think when you look back and you look at certain companies and why they've been successful, it's not always the case, but often culture is something that's been underestimated.

因此，那些显然重视股东利益的公司很重要。

And so companies that obviously look after shareholders are important.

我们在这里的目标是盈利和为股东创造回报。

We're trying to make a profit here and a shareholder return.

但我相信，那些善待员工、拥有良好Glassdoor评分、员工满意度高的公司，以及那些重视客户并具备强大客户价值主张的公司，更有可能取得成功。

But I believe that companies that look after their employees that have good glass door scores and where you've got satisfied employees, companies that look after their customers and have a strong customer value proposition, are well placed to succeed.

所以，文化和使命——在我们考察的事项中，我们不喜欢那种产品是客户必需的、但客户却痛恨这家公司的企业。

So culture and purpose, I mean, of the things that we look at is we don't like businesses where they have a product that customers have to have, but customers hate hate the company.

它们拥有定价权，因为客户别无选择，无处可去。

They've got pricing power because the customers have got no choice and nowhere else to go.

最终，我认为这并不会带来一个必然良好的结果。

Ultimately, don't think that leads to a very inevitable outcome.

而像好市多这样的公司，持续让客户感到愉悦，善待员工，给予他们优厚的薪酬，将这些因素结合起来，就能通过关注所有利益相关者并建立良好的文化，长期实现超常回报。

Whereas if you're like a Costco and you are permanently delighting customers, you look after your employees, you pay them well, you put all these things together, you can deliver supernormal returns over time by considering all the stakeholders and building a good culture.

我认为我们在芬德利公园也在努力这样做。

I think we try to do that at Findlay Park.

我认为芬德利公园成功的原因之一，坦率地说，是我们有着明确的目标：为客户提供卓越的回报，同时营造一种让员工能充分发挥才能、享受工作并为利益相关者创造价值的环境。

I think one of the reasons for the success of Findlay Park is frankly, you know, a very focused purpose to generate great returns for our clients, and a culture of creating environment for employees to do their best work, to have fun, and to deliver you know, to deliver for our stakeholders.

所以我认为，文化与使命，我们过去可能低估了它们的重要性，因此我们现在特别重视这两点。

So I think culture and purpose, I believe we've probably underestimated in the past, and that's why we've sort of double scored it.

我们特别重视一些因素，比如文化、定价能力以及无杠杆情况下的回报率，这些我们认为是关键的超级因素。

A few questions we double score like culture, like pricing power and returns without leverage, a few things that we think are kind of super factors.

所以当你在判断一家公司的文化时，显然会进行大量尽职调查，与部门负责人、前员工乃至竞争对手交谈。

So when you were trying to figure out the culture of a company, you're obviously doing a lot of due diligence in talking to divisional leaders and former employees and the like, and competitors.

你会寻找他们说法中的不一致之处，比如有人会说：‘是啊，是啊，这真是个很棒的工作环境。’

Are you looking for inconsistencies in what they're saying to see whether someone is saying, Yeah, yeah, no, it's a lovely place to work.

但当你跟其他人聊的时候，却发现：‘天啊，真希望我的老板别那么讨厌。’

Then you talk to people and you're like, God, I just wish my boss weren't such a ass.

是的，我的意思是，要随着时间推移逐渐拼凑出完整的图景。

Yeah, I mean, build up a picture over time.

你研究一家公司时，会接触管理层，也会接触不同层级的管理者。

You cover a company and you meet management, you meet different levels of management.

如今，通过Glassdoor以及其他渠道，你可以获得员工反馈和满意度方面的数据，了解存在的问题。

Obviously Glassdoor and in her side there's other ways getting data these days on employee feedback and satisfactions, where some of the issues are.

在我看来，员工满意度与股东回报之间存在某种关联。

And if you're in the top I mean, is a correlation in my opinion between satisfies employees shareholder returns.

如果你是标普500中Glassdoor评分排在第500位的公司，你大概很难实现出色的回报。

And if you're the five hundredth company in the S and P 500 on the Glassdoor scores, you're probably going to be challenged to deliver really great returns.

因此，我们有一些外部数据来源，可以访谈管理层。

So there's some outside data we We can can interview managements.

我们也可以借助专家网络，接触员工、前员工和竞争对手，以了解情况。

Can also use expert networks to access employees, former employees, competitors to get a sense of that.

我们非常关注领导层。

We're very focused on the leadership.

每当领导层发生变化时，这可能会如何影响企业文化？

Anytime the leadership changes, how does that how might that impact the culture?

所以我们是逐步建立起对企业的整体认知的。

So we build up a picture over time.

我们整理了一份大约六个问题的清单，帮助我们深入探究企业文化。

Produced a list of sort of half a dozen questions that help us probe on culture.

什么是企业文化？

What is the culture?

它在整个组织中是如何体现的？

How is it manifested throughout the organisation?

组织？

Organisation?

它随着时间发生了怎样的变化？

How has it changed over time?

为什么它会随着时间发生变化？

Why has it changed over time?

因此，我们还开发了一系列问题，帮助我们深入探究这个问题。

So there's a series of questions also we've developed to just help us sort of get to the bottom of it.

你永远无法获得完整的图景，但随着时间推移，你可以逐步构建起一幅画面，而我们确实已经尽力了。

You never really get a full picture, but you can build up a picture over time, and we've certainly given it a good go.

我也深深注意到，你们的文件在ESG方面涉及得非常广泛。

I was also really struck by the extent to which your documents really deal extensively with ESG.

显然，最近在美国出现了对ESG的反弹，围绕这一议题的分歧十分严重。

And obviously there's been an ESG backlash here in The US recently and lots of polarization about the issue.

我多少能理解那种观点，即存在绿色洗牌的风险，华尔街非常擅长推销任何东西。

And I guess I have some sympathy towards the view that there is a danger of greenwashing and that Wall Street is pretty good at selling anything.

只要他们能通过宣称某产品符合ESG标准来销售，他们就会这么做。

If they can sell stuff by saying that it meets their ESG criteria, they'll do it.

我认为对此保持一定程度的怀疑态度是恰当的。

I do think it's appropriate to be somewhat cynical about it.

但我同样认为，环境、社会福祉和公司治理这些议题至关重要。

I also think these issues of environment and social good and governance are hugely important.

我认为，利用这种反弹和虚伪的指控来否定这一真正重要的事情，存在真正的危险。

And I think there's a sort of real danger of using that backlash and the allegations of hypocrisy to kind of dismiss this thing that's actually really important.

因此，我很感兴趣看到ESG在你们的检查清单中占据多大比重。

And so I was interested to see the extent to which ESG runs through your checklist.

我认为你们还使用了一种负责任的投资评估标准，包含大约19个与气候和环境、人力资本、商业道德和声誉、网络安全以及数据隐私相关的因素。

And I think you have also a responsible investment gauge that you use that has something like 19 different factors related to climate and environment and human capital and business ethics and reputation and cybersecurity and data privacy and all of these things.

你能谈谈ESG如何真正成为发现可持续发展企业并实现长期成功的重要方面吗？

Can you talk about this whole issue of ESG actually being a really important aspect of finding businesses that are sustainable and achieving long term success.

这实际上是一种务实和实用的做法，而不仅仅是我们应该在政治上争论的问题。

So it's actually a practical and pragmatic thing and not just something that we should be debating politically.

是的。

Yeah.

不，不是的。

No, no.

谢谢你，威廉。

Thanks, William.

我很感谢有机会讨论这个问题，因为你知道，我认为钟摆曾经大幅偏向一个方向，而现在似乎又大幅偏向了另一个方向。

I appreciate the opportunity to discuss this because you know, I think the pendulum swung a long way in one direction, and now it seems to be swinging a long way in the other direction.

我认为我们采取的是更为务实的方法。

I think we take rather a more pragmatic approach.

我的意思是，ESG到底是什么？

I mean, what is ESG?

它可能是ESG，也可能是SGE，或者谁知道是谁定了ESG这个顺序。

It could be ESG, it could be SGE, it could be you know, I don't know whoever chose the order of ESG.

目前，E（环境）方面受到了很多关注。

The E seems to be getting a lot of attention at the moment.

但事实上，我们认为管理得当的公司最有可能为我们的客户带来出色的复合回报。

But the truth is that we believe that responsibly managed companies are best placed to produce great compound rate of return, compound returns for our clients.

因此，我们非常关注这些因素。

And so we do pay close attention to those factors.

我的意思是，良好的治理是我们考察公司时的一个重要因素。

I mean, governance, good governance, is an important factor when we look at companies.

它有没有一个合理的董事会？

Does it have a sensible board?

管理层的激励机制是否与股东利益一致？

Are management incentives we talked about incentives aligned with those of shareholders?

这些激励机制合理吗？

Do they make sense?

我们是否信任管理层能够良好且成功地运营这家公司？

Would we back management to run this company well and successfully?

因此，治理（G）因素完全融入了我们的理念检查清单中。

And so the G is that's absolutely integrated into our philosophy checklist.

同样，社会（S）因素也融入了我们的理念检查清单中。

Equally, the S is integrated into our philosophy checklist.

我们希望投资那些能为客户提供良好价值主张的公司。

We want to have companies that are delivering good customer value propositions.

我提到了Glassdoor的评分。

And I mentioned the Glassdoor scores.

我们希望投资那些最终善待员工、关心员工，并创造良好环境让员工能充分发挥潜力、茁壮成长的公司，从而吸引和留住最优秀的人才，实现成功。

Want to have companies that ultimately are treating employees well, looking after employees, and creating an environment where they can do their best work and thrive, and they can retain and attract the best people so that they can be successful.

所以，你知道，我们一直认为其他利益相关者也很重要，当你考虑到客户和员工时，股东也会获得更好的回报。

So, you know, thinking about we've always thought about other stakeholders, you know, that when you think about customers and employees, you get better results for shareholders.

我们谈到了好市多，还有很多很多其他的例子。

We talked about Costco, and there are many, many other examples.

因此，这一点已经融入我们的流程中。

So that is integrated into our process.

在环境（E）方面，我们投资了许多公司，它们提供的产品和服务有助于创造一个更可持续的世界。

On the e side of things, we've got many companies that we think are providing products and services that are helping to create a more sustainable world.

例如，我们持有的建筑保温材料公司TopBuild，是我们的重要持仓之一。

For example, some of our building insulation companies we own TopBuild, we own a nice holding in that, it's one of our bigger holdings.

它们是为住宅和商业房屋提供保温材料的主导企业。

And they are the dominant company in providing insulation to residential and commercial houses.

也就是住宅和商业物业。

Well, residential houses and commercial properties.

当然，隔热材料实际上是减少碳足迹的最佳方式之一。

And of course, insulation actually is one of the best ways that you can reduce your carbon footprint.

所以这并不意味着TopBuild在我们的理念检查表上得分不高。

So now it doesn't mean that actually TopBuild is not a high scoring company on our philosophy checklist.

最初的出发点是，这是否是一个好企业？

The starting point is, is it a good business?

它是否符合我们的标准？

Does it fit?

但它也可能带来机遇。

But it can also create opportunity.

因此，对我来说，ESG是一种融入我们投资流程的工具，帮助我们管理机遇与风险。

And so for me, I see ESG as a tool that is integrated into our investment process that helps us manage both opportunity and risk.

管理风险，特别是下行风险，同时寻找机遇。

Manage risk, downside risk, and find opportunity.

我们在这里采取非常务实的态度，希望在这方面从未进行过绿色洗白。

And we take a really pragmatic approach here, and hopefully we've never greenwashed here on this front.

我们通常不会在ESG相关的材料中使用幻灯片，但我们一直都在实际推进这项工作。

Tend not to have slides in our pack around ESG, but we just sort of get on and do it we've always been doing it.

我们确实有一个负责任投资评估体系，会关注其他因素并整合其他信息和数据。

We do have this responsible investment gauge where we look at other factors and pull in other information and data.

同样，这有助于我们管理机遇与风险。

Again, help us manage opportunity and risk.

威廉，是的。

William Yeah.

我注意到你们的务实态度：一方面，你们仍然持有像EOG资源公司和康菲石油这样的化石燃料公司，我认为它们是低碳的油气生产商。

I was struck by that pragmatism where on the one hand you do still own some fossil fuel companies like EOG Resources, which I think is a low carbon producer of oil and gas, and Conoco as well.

但正如你们过去所指出的，这些公司在能源转型中仍将发挥重要作用。

But these are companies that, as you've pointed out in the past, are going to play an important role in the energy transition.

但与此同时，你们在2021年还向评估清单中增加了一个问题：该公司是否是气候经济的净受益者？

But at the same time, you also have a question, I think you added in 2021 to your checklist where you say, is the company a net beneficiary of climate economics?

所以你们的做法非常务实。

So it's very pragmatic.

这表明环境方面存在一种趋势，我们希望与这一趋势保持一致。

It's saying there is a trend here in terms of the environment, and we want to align ourselves with that trend.

我们希望确保不会被它突然击中，但也不至于陷入意识形态的极端，我

We want to make sure that we're not blindsided by it, but also not the Yeah, ideological, I

我觉得这是对的。

I think that's right.

我的意思是，我们一直力求务实。

I mean, we've always tried to be pragmatic.

我的意思是，显然这是一个重要的趋势。在我看来，尽管在言辞和基金管理公司声称自己是否与之对齐方面，风向可能略有变化，但如果你看看企业本身，看看它们在做什么，就能明显看出它们正在减少环境足迹、向更可持续方向发展的强劲势头。

I mean, clearly I think it is an important trend, which in my view, although the tide may be shifting a little bit in terms of the rhetoric and the fund management companies saying I'm aligned with it or I'm not aligned with it, if you look at businesses, if you look at what businesses are doing, there's clear momentum to reduce their environmental footprint and become more sustainable.

我认为这是一个持久的趋势，因此我们提出了一个问题。

I think it is an enduring trend, and so we have got a question there.

一个问题是，我们29个问题中的一个。

One question, one point on our 29 question.

但同时，我们也充分认识到必须实现能源转型，如果没有化石燃料，世界今天就会停止运转。

But at the same time, we've fully recognized that there needs to be an energy transition, and the world would simply stop functioning today if we didn't have fossil fuels.

那么，我们如何通过负责任管理的企业，以负责任的方式实现从A到B的转变呢？

And so how do we we get get from A to B in a responsible way through responsibly managed businesses?

因此，我们从未采取过一种剥离策略，比如只投资于AAA评级的ESG公司。

And so we've never operated a sort of divestment strategy here of saying, Well, we only want to be in AAA rated ESG companies.

我们采取了更加务实的方法。

We've taken a much more pragmatic approach.

事实上，在我们的负责任投资评估指标（RIG）中，像EOG这样的公司，在我们所关注的所有因素上得分相当高。

And in fact, on our RIG, our responsible investment gauge, a company like EOG actually scores quite well relative to all the sort of factors that we look at.

相比之下，一些由第三方机构给予高评级的社交媒体公司，其得分却并不理想。

By contrast, some of the social media companies, which get quite high ratings from third party vendors, don't score so well.

因此，每个人衡量这些事情的方式都不同，但归根结底，我们是务实的。

And so everyone has their own different ways of measuring these things, but ultimately, yeah, we are pragmatic.

所以像Meta和X（前身为Twitter）这样的公司，就像Glif（前身为Prince）现在叫X一样，它们的得分并不高吗？

So things like Meta and X, formerly known as Twitter, in the same way that Glif, formerly known as Prince is now X, they don't score very well?

这些社交媒体公司，是不是那些得分不高的公司？

These social media companies, would they be ones that don't score great?

它们确实不达标。

They don't.

在芬德利公园，我们通常会避开这些公司。

And we've tended to avoid those companies at Findlay Park.

我的意思是，出于各种原因，它们在我们的投资理念检查清单上得分也不高。

I mean, for various reasons they don't score that highly on our investment philosophy checklist either.

你知道，目前芬德利公园对大型科技股的配置比例相当低。

Know, So Finley Park right now, we're pretty underweight, you know, the mega cap companies.

尽管我们是一只全市值美国基金，但我们对这些大型科技股的配置比例可能达到了历史最低水平。

We probably got about as low a weight although we're an all cap American fund, we probably got about as low a weight as we've ever had in those mega cap companies.

尽管如此，该基金的表现依然相当出色，因为投资并不仅仅关乎指数的表现，有时更关键的是你持有哪些标的。

And notwithstanding that, the fund still continues to perform quite well, because also it's not about what you Sometimes it's also just about what you own and not sort of what the index is doing.

只要其他公司表现良好，你依然能实现不错的复合回报率。

Long as you've got other companies that are performing well, you can still produce a good compound rate of return.

是的。

Yeah.

我的感觉是，也许这种情况已经变了，但几周前我的感觉是，你们持有微软、英伟达和字母表公司，这些公司你们已经持有很长时间了。

My sense, maybe this has changed, but my sense at least a few weeks ago was that you own Microsoft, NVIDIA, and Alphabet, all of which you'd owned for quite a while.

所以我想，这八个市值在三千亿到五千亿甚至一万亿美元以上的超级大盘股中，你们持有其中三个，但其他的像Meta、奈飞、特斯拉、亚马逊，

So I guess three of those eight mega cap companies that have market caps of thirty:fifty 100,000,000,000 or more, but the others like Meta, Netflix, Tesla, Amazon,

苹果，持得不多。

Apple, not so much.

这么说公平吗，你们

Is that fair to say that you

没错。

were That's right.

我们回避了这三家公司。在我们上一次的持仓报告中，有三家公司合计约占基金的10%。

Avoiding have three Our last filing, we had three companies which made up, call it, approximately 10% of the fund.

如果你看看今年以及过去几年一直推动市场的那些超级大盘股的话。

And if you look at those mega cap company, which have been driving the market this year and for a number of years.

回顾过去十年，有八家公司贡献了标普500指数60%的收益。

Think in the last decade, eight companies represented 60% of the performance of the S and P.

这些公司占指数的25%到30%，而我们的持仓大约在10%。

Those represent 25% to 30% of the index, and we're around 10%.

因此，我们的投资组合比指数更加广泛分散，而现在的指数看起来略显狭窄。

So we have a much broader diversified portfolio than index, which looks a little bit narrow today.

而且看起来你们有意识地重新转向侧重于中型股。

And it seems like you've been very consciously shifting back towards an emphasis on mid caps.

在最初阶段，这只基金主要投资于小盘股，后来略微加入一些中盘股，然后逐渐演变为全市值基金。

In its original iteration, the fund was very much a small cap fund and then a little bit mid caps, and then gradually became an all cap fund.

而现在，它似乎又重新转向对中型股的显著侧重。

And now it seems that it's shifting back towards a pretty heavy emphasis on mid caps.

这是否部分反映了，正如你所说的，那八大巨头在过去十到十二年里涨得太疯狂，估值已经不再具有吸引力？

Is that partly a reflection of the fact that, as you call them, the mega cap eight have gone kind of crazy over the last ten, twelve years and that the valuations are just not that attractive?

首先，巨头股的问题在哪里？中型股的相对吸引力又是什么？

First, what's the problem with the mega caps and what's the comparative attraction of the mid caps?

是的。

Yeah.

大型科技公司的挑战在于，过去十年左右，它们几乎独占了市场，比如谷歌在搜索领域，亚马逊在云计算领域，微软在办公生产力软件等领域。

So the challenge with the mega caps is that in the last decade or so, they pretty much had the sort of rails to themselves, you know, whether it's Google in search or, you know, Microsoft in cloud sorry, Amazon in cloud or Microsoft in, you know, office productivity and so on.

如果你看看今天的情况，竞争明显多了起来。

If you look today, there's just a lot more competition.

未来竞争还会更多，重叠也更严重。

There's going be more, there's more overlap.

谷歌、亚马逊和微软现在都在云计算领域相互竞争。

You know, Google and Amazon and Microsoft are all competing in cloud.

这已经是一个竞争更加激烈的领域了。

You know, it's just, it's a more competitive area.

在社交媒体方面，脸书面临着更多挑战，比如抖音的崛起，这些公司之间的竞争也更加激烈。

You know, social media, Facebook has got, you know, more challenges there, you know, TikTok and there's just more competition between those companies.

它们今后不太可能像过去那样随意收购其他公司了。

They're not going be allowed to acquire companies in the way they have in the past.

过去十年左右，它们的收入年均复合增长率大约为25%，这相当惊人。

They compounded revenues at sort of 25% roughly for the last decade or so, which is pretty extraordinary.

但如果估值继续上升，如果它们在未来十年再次这样做，它们的规模可能会达到GDP的三分之一。

But if the valuation's moved up, if they're going to do that again over the next decade, they probably become a third of GDP.

所以我认为这只是一个数学上的挑战。

So I think it's just a mathematical challenge.

这些公司的合计收入达到了1.5万亿美元。

This is 1 and a half trillion of collective revenue.

它们正受到来自监管和竞争层面更为严格的审视。

And it's being scrutinized to far greater extent from a regulatory perspective and from a competitive perspective.

这是其中一个角度。

That's sort of one angle.

第二个角度是我们对中型公司实际上非常看好。

The second angle is we're actually really excited about mid caps.

随着大型公司的主导地位增强，我们认为中型公司在估值上的机会正回到上世纪90年代末期的水平，那时我们更关注小型公司。

As these large cap companies have dominated, we feel that the opportunity in mid caps on valuations we're sort of going back to where we were in the sort of late 90s when we were much more focused on small cap companies.

我不会说它们被忽视了，但它们的表现不佳，因此受到的关注也更少。

And I wouldn't say they've been ignored, but they've not performed, and so they've had less attention on them.

在过去十八个月里，我们发现进入基金的创意中，大约有75%集中在30亿美元到500亿美元市值的范围内。

We are finding probably about 75% of the ideas that come into the fund over the last eighteen months have been in this sort of 3,000,000,000 to $50,000,000,000 market cap range.

因此，目前基金中约三分之二的持仓市值低于1000亿美元，而标普指数中三分之二的成分股市值超过1000亿美元，我们正朝着这个方向演变。

And so today, probably two thirds of the fund is under $100,000,000,000 whereas two thirds of the S and P is over $100,000,000,000 And we're evolving in that direction.

这里还有另一个因素，那就是去全球化，以及在走向更去全球化世界的过程中，更专注于国内市场的公司可能获得的优势。

There is another factor here, which really is around deglobalization and the advantage that maybe more domestic oriented companies are going to have as we move to a more deglobalized world.

我的意思是，这完全是另一个话题了。

I mean, that's another conversation entirely.

我很乐意深入探讨这一点。

I'm happy to get into that.

但我们更侧重于国内业务，那些将受益于美国制造业回流和近岸外包的公司，我们对这一机会非常看好。

But we've got a more of a domestic focus, companies that are gonna benefit from US reshoring, near shoring, and we're really excited about that opportunity.

是的，这些公司很多我们的听众可能都没听说过，因为它们可能是工业公司或基础设施服务公司，主要客户是美国本土市场。

Yeah, so these are companies that a lot of our listeners won't have heard about because maybe they're industrial companies or infrastructure services companies with a more domestic US buyer.

所以我看了下你们的投资组合，比如Ferguson这样的公司，主营供暖和管道设备，这些公司并不是人人都熟悉。

So I was looking at your portfolio and there are things like Ferguson in heating and plumbing, these companies that not all of us have heard of.

但我还注意到，你们以一种有趣的方式参与了人工智能热潮，尽管你们持有英伟达、微软和阿尔法贝特这些规模较大的仓位，但你们也非常重视所谓的‘采矿工具’类公司，即那些将从人工智能相关的IT支出中受益的产品和服务提供商。

But then I was also struck that you were playing the AI boom in an interesting way that although you own NVIDIA and Microsoft, which are both pretty big positions, and Alphabet, There's also a big emphasis on what you've called the picks and shovels providers of products and services that are going to benefit from IT spending on things like AI.

你能谈谈像埃森哲或盖纳特这样的公司吗？它们可能没那么庞大。

Can you talk about things like Accenture or Gartner, these things that are maybe not as huge?

它们不是这些超级巨头公司，但它们在把握人工智能热潮方面定位非常优越，而且我认为，它们的价格可能不像那些超级巨头股票那样昂贵。

They're not these mega cap companies, but they're very well positioned to take advantage perhaps of this AI boom, and they're not quite as pricey perhaps, I think, as some of these mega cap stocks.

我的意思是，也许先退一步看，我们投资组合中大约有40%属于我所说的这类‘采矿工具’型公司，这些公司大多数人觉得有点无聊，增长性不够，但我们非常喜爱。

I mean, maybe just stepping back a bit, we probably have 40% of the portfolio in what I would call sort of these picks and shovels type companies, you know, which most people find a bit boring and not growthy enough, but we absolutely love.

我所说的这类公司，通常提供的是对客户价值很高、但占其总成本比例极低的关键产品和服务。

So whether it's and what I mean by that is often they are providing, you know, essential products and services that are a high value to customer, but a very, very low percentage of their total costs.

比如信实涂料公司，油漆在整项涂装工程中的成本占比其实不高，但使用高质量的油漆却非常重要。

So you take Sherwin Williams, for example, in paint, you know, actually paint as a percentage of the paint job is not a lot, but it's, you know, having good quality paint is important.

马丁·马里埃塔公司的骨料产品。

Martin Marietta in aggregate.

用于新建工业气体设施或生物技术工厂的骨料材料。

The aggregates that go into new industrial gas facility or biotech plant.

成本占比虽然很小，但这是一个寡头垄断市场，你必须拥有这个产品，并且有一定的定价权，而且你必须在需要的时候就能拿到。

It's a pretty small percentage of the cost, but, you know, it's sort of an oligopoly, you've got to have the product, and you've got a bit of pricing power, and you just need you need to have it when you need to have it.

看看德州仪器或模拟器件公司在模拟半导体领域的表现，它们的产品单价可能只有50美分到1美元，但每辆汽车中使用的半导体内容价值可能高达几百美元。

If you look at Texas Instruments or analogue devices in analogue semiconductors, mean, sell products for 50¢ for a dollar, but the content is maybe a few $100 that goes into a car.

但这些产品至关重要，而你并不是在押注特斯拉、宝马、通用汽车或某家中国电动车公司会成为赢家。

But they're critical products, but they're not, you know, you're not betting on Tesla or BMW or GM or some Chinese EV company being the winner.

你买的是像德州仪器这样的 picks and shovels 公司，它们为全球所有汽车制造商提供模拟半导体。

You buy the picks and shovels company like Texas Instruments, and they provide analog semiconductors to all car manufacturers all over the world.

无论是中国、印度、特斯拉还是德国公司，你其实不需要那么聪明去预测谁会赢，因为只要他们需要这种产品，就会去找德州仪器。

And, you know, whether it's the Chinese or the Indian or the Teslas or, you know, the German companies, don't you actually have to be that smart and make a bet on who the winner is because if they need the product, they'll go to Texas Instruments.

我们知道，汽车中的电子化内容会随着时间推移不断增长。

And we know the auto content in cars grows over time.

这就是我所说的高价值、低成本但至关重要的产品。

So these are what I mean by high value, low cost, but critical products.

在IT服务领域也是如此。

And it's the same in IT services.

这些可以说是提供铲子和镐子的公司，无论是在IT服务领域，比如埃森哲在咨询方面，还是盖特纳在提供科技建议方面，亦或是CDW在IT服务方面，我们都非常喜欢这类公司。

These are sort of picks and shovels providers, whether it's in IT services, whether it's Accenture in consulting, or whether it's Gartner in providing technology advice, or whether it's CDW in IT services, we just love these companies.

热力科学、丹纳赫在医疗健康领域。

Thermo Fisher, Danaher in healthcare.

你知道，我们迄今为止在芬德利公园从未投资过任何制药或生物技术公司，你可能会问，安东尼，为什么呢？

You know, we have actually never invested at Findlay Park in a pharmaceutical or biotech company in our history, and you may say, Well, Anthony, why not?

问题是，我们不够聪明，无法预知哪些产品会获得批准，这些产品的生命周期是怎样的，当专利到期后，他们是否有新产品来替代？

The problem is, is we're not smart enough to know which products are going to get approved and what is the life cycle of that product, and when it comes off patent, do they have a product to replace it?

如果你是热力科学或丹纳赫，为科学家提供生命科学工具和耗材，并服务于所有制药公司、生物技术公司、仿制药公司以及印度和中国的企业，只要你相信科学在进步，那么大多数年份你的收入都会持续增长，利润率也能小幅提升，并能产生自由现金流，再将这些资金用于更多收购、分红或股票回购。

If you're Thermo Fisher or Danaher and you're providing the life science tools and consumables to scientists, and you're serving all the pharma companies, all the biotech companies, all the generic companies, all the Indian and Chinese companies, as long as you believe in science advancing, you're going to generate more revenue every year most years, and you can grow margins a bit and you can generate free cash flow and reallocate that into more acquisitions or dividends or buybacks.

抱歉，这个回答有点啰嗦，但这些正是帮助我们控制下行风险的企业类型。

These are sorry, it's a slightly long winded answer, but these are the types of businesses that help us manage downside risk.

对大多数人来说，这些公司可能相当平淡，但即使你判断错了，也不会亏太多钱。

And to most people, they might be quite dull, but you're not gonna lose a lot of money in them if you're wrong.

而且我觉得我在你们的某份报告中读到过，这些不太炫目的中型公司估值，相比大型巨头公司的估值，已经跌至近二十五年来的最低水平。

And I I think I read somewhere in one of your reports that the valuations for these slightly less exotic kind of mid cap companies are at basically twenty five year lows compared to the valuations of the mega caps.

是这样吗？这种巨大的差异让我们想起了1998年或1995年的情况？

Is is that right that there's a really big disparity that reminds us of, say, 1998, 1995?

是的。

Yeah.

我们的演示文稿中有一张图表，展示了中小盘股的相对估值。

We have a chart in our slide deck which shows the relative valuation of mid caps.

你也可以将它与小盘股相对于标普500指数的估值进行比较，而标普500显然是一个偏向大盘股的指数。

You can plot this against small caps as well relative to the S and P 500, which is obviously a larger cap biased index.

目前它的估值水平接近1998年底至1999年初的水平。

It is trading close to where it was in sort of late nineteen ninety eight, early nineteen ninety nine.

你知道，我们一直以来都致力于为客户实现良好的绝对复合回报率。

And you know, one of the things that we did is we always were trying to produce a good, absolute compound rate of return for clients.

你知道，小盘股和中盘股已经被过度挖掘了。

You know, small cap, mid caps got really rather picked over.

你知道，许多大型基金公司——那些你都熟知的知名机构——在2000年代关闭了它们的小盘股和中盘股基金，因为它们管理的资金太多，而这个领域之前一直很受欢迎。

You know, a lot of the big fund houses, the well known ones that you all know, closed their doors in the 2000s to small and mid cap money, they had too much money, and it had been a great area and out of favor sorry, in favor.

而且，你知道，标普500指数的公司当时并不受欢迎。

And, you know, S and P 500 companies were well out of favor.

正是在那个时候，我们做出了调整，决定实际上需要关注所有规模的公司，因为你可以用12倍市盈率买入微软，用11倍市盈率买入沃尔玛等公司。

And that was the point at which we pivoted, and we said, well, actually we need to look at all cap companies because you can buy Microsoft on 12 times earnings and you can buy, you know, Walgreen on 11 times earnings, etc.

我们可以买入那些长期表现不佳的高质量公司。

And we can buy these high quality companies that have underperformed for a while.

我们不断进化，如今，距离Findlay Park 3.0已经过去二十五年，我觉得这有点像是回归未来。

We evolved, and now I think Findlay Park three point zero, twenty five years on, I'm calling it sort of back to the future.

我们正在稍微回归到我们的初心。

We're going back a little bit to our roots.

如今，我们的投资组合更接近早期的样子，市值在30亿到500亿美元之间的中型公司占我们投资的40%以上，市值低于1000亿美元的公司占我们投资的60%以上。

Today we look more like we did in those early days with sort of mid cap companies, dollars 3,000,000,000 to $50,000,000,000 market cap companies being 40 plus percent of what we do, less than $100,000,000,000 60% plus of what we do.

这真的令人兴奋。

And it's really exciting.

在过去十年里，我们某种程度上一直坚持在这个领域。

And we sort of stayed in the game in a way in the last decade.

我们在一个零利率、资金免费的时期坚持了下来，这在某种程度上并不是芬利公园管理下行风险、低杠杆的绝佳环境。

We hung in there in a period where you had zero interest rates, free money, you know, not the best environment in a way for Finlay Park, managing downside risk, low leverage.

但现在利率回到了5.5%，资金有了真正的成本。

But now we're back at 5.5% interest rates, you know, there's a real cost to money.

我们进入了一个新时代。

We're in a new era.

现在快一点半了。

It's really one:thirty

很令人兴奋。

exciting.

我认为回归我们的根源，投资这些略微被忽视、不被看好的公司，将会非常出色。

I think going back to our roots a bit with these slightly undercovered, unloved companies is going to be fantastic.

让我们短暂休息一下，听听今天赞助商的介绍。

Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors.

当你经营一家小企业时，雇对人至关重要。

When you're running a small business, hiring the right person can make all the difference.

正确的招聘人选能提升你的团队，提高生产力，并将你的业务推向新高度。

The right hire can elevate your team, boost your productivity and take your business to the next level.

但找到这样的人可能本身就像一份全职工作。

But finding that person can feel like a full time job in itself.

这就是LinkedIn职位服务的用武之地。

That's where LinkedIn jobs comes in.

他们的全新AI助手通过为你匹配真正符合需求的顶尖候选人，消除了招聘中的猜测成分。

Their new AI assistant takes the guesswork out of hiring by matching you with top candidates who actually fit what you're looking for.

不再需要翻阅大量简历，它会根据你的标准筛选求职者，并突出显示最匹配的人选，帮你节省数小时时间，在合适人选出现时迅速行动。

Instead of sifting through piles of resumes, it filters applicants based on your criteria and highlights the best matches, saving you hours and helping you move fast when the right person comes along.

最棒的是，这些优秀候选人已经活跃在LinkedIn上。

The best part is that those great candidates are already on LinkedIn.

事实上，通过LinkedIn招聘的员工至少留任一年的可能性比通过主要竞争对手招聘的员工高出30%。

In fact, employees hired through LinkedIn are 30% more likely to stick around for at least a year compared to those hired through the leading competitor.

一次就招对人。

Hire right the first time.

在 linkedin.com/studybill 免费发布职位，然后推广该职位以使用 LinkedIn Jobs 的全新 AI 助手，更轻松快捷地找到顶尖候选人。

Post your job for free at linkedin.com/studybill then promote it to use LinkedIn jobs new AI assistant, making it easier and faster to find top candidates.

免费发布职位请访问 linkedin.com/studybill。

That's linkedin.com/studybill to post your job for free.

适用条款和条件。

Terms and conditions apply.

每一家企业都在问同一个问题。

Every business is asking the same question.

我们如何让 AI 为我们所用？

How do we make AI work for us?

可能性无穷无尽，但盲目猜测风险太大。

The possibilities are endless and guessing is too risky.

但袖手旁观绝非选项，因为有一件事几乎可以肯定：你的竞争对手已经在行动了。

But sitting on the sidelines is not an option because one thing is almost certain, your competitors are already making their move.

借助甲骨文的 NetSuite，今天就能让 AI 为你工作。

With NetSuite by Oracle, you can put AI to work today.

NetSuite 是全球超过43,000家企业信赖的头号AI云ERP系统。

NetSuite is the number one AI cloud ERP trusted by over 43,000 businesses.

它是一个统一的套件，将您的财务、库存、电商、人力资源和客户关系管理整合为单一数据源。

It's a unified suite that brings your financials, inventory, commerce, HR, and CRM into a single source of truth.

这种互联的数据让您的AI更智能，不再只是猜测。

That connected data is what makes your AI smarter so it doesn't just guess.

现在，借助NetSuite AI连接器，您可以使用任何您选择的AI工具，连接到真实的业务数据，提出您曾有过的所有问题，从关键客户到现金状况，再到库存趋势。

And now with NetSuite AI Connector, you can use the AI of your choice to connect to your actual business data and ask every question you ever had, from key customers to cash on hand to inventory trends.

无论您的公司年收入是数百万还是数亿，NetSuite都能帮助您保持领先。

Whether your company earns millions or even hundreds of millions, NetSuite helps you stay ahead of the pack.

现在，NetSuite免费提供商业指南《揭开AI的神秘面纱》，访问 netsuite.com/study 获取。

Right now, NetSuite's free business guide, Demystifying AI at netsuite.com/study.

这份指南免费提供，访问 netsuite.com/study 即可获取。

The guide is free to you at netsuite.com/study.

2026年，就是您终于付诸行动的一年。

2026 is the year you finally do it.

这一年，你不再只是抱着那个想法，而是真正把它变成现实。

The year you stop sitting on that idea and actually turn it into something real.

我们都有那些本可以更上一层楼的技能、想法和副业，但梦想与行动之间的区别，在于迈出第一步。

We all have skills, ideas, and side projects we know could be more, But the difference between dreaming and doing is taking that first step.

Shopify 为你提供了在线和线下销售所需的一切工具。

Shopify gives you everything you need to sell online and in person.

数以百万计的创业者，包括我自己，都已经完成了这一跃——从家喻户晓的大品牌到刚刚起步的初创者。

Millions of entrepreneurs, including myself, have already taken this leap from massive household brands to first time founders just getting started.

使用 Shopify，打造你的梦想店铺非常简单。

With Shopify, building your dream store is simple.

你可以从数百个精美的模板中选择，并自定义以契合你的品牌风格。

You can choose from hundreds of beautiful templates and customize them to match your brand.

设置也非常快捷，内置的 AI 工具能帮你撰写产品描述，甚至协助编辑产品图片。

Setup is fast too, with built in AI tools that write product descriptions and even help edit product photos.

随着你的成长，Shopify 也会与你一同成长，帮助你从一个仪表板处理更多订单，并拓展至新市场。

And as you grow, Shopify grows with you, helping you handle more orders and expand into new markets all from one dashboard.

在2026年，停止等待，立即用Shopify开始销售。

In 2026, stop waiting and start selling with Shopify.

注册每月1美元的试用版，今天就前往shopify.com/wsb开始销售。

Sign up for your $1 per month trial and start selling today at shopify.com/wsb.

前往shopify.com/wsb。

Go to shopify.com/wsb.

就是shopify.com/wsb。

That's shopify.com/wsb.

在新的一年里，让Shopify陪伴你聆听你的第一个成功声音。

Hear your first this new year with Shopify by your side.

好了，回到节目。

All right, back to the show.

有趣的是，你们从一开始就做出的最重要决定之一，决定了Findlay Park的成功，那就是你们选择专注于一个国家。

It's also interesting that probably one of the most important decisions you guys made from the very start that determined the success of Findlay Park was that you made the choice to focus on one country.

很早就选定了美国，这要感谢James和Charlie对美国股票的专长。

Picked America very early on, thanks to the good fortune of James and Charlie being experts on US stocks.

你对美国有着独特的视角，因为你住在英国，职业生涯早期曾担任过五年欧洲股票分析师，但你花了二十多年时间分析美国股票。

You have an unusual perspective on The US because you live in The UK, you spent five years early on in your career as a European stock analyst, I think, but you spent over twenty years analyzing US stocks.

你对美国保持超然和客观，但同时又非常了解并深度融入其中。

You're detached an objective about The US, but at the same time, very knowledgeable and very immersed in it.

我觉得人们经常低估了美国的活力，他们只看到各种问题，总是说‘美国完了，看看那个即将取而代之的国家’。

And I feel like people routinely underestimate the dynamism of The US, and they look at all these problems and they always say, America's finished, look at this country that's gonna take over.

无论是几十年前的日本，还是近年来的中国，每当人们都说‘这个国家将取而代之，美国完了’时，美国衰落的预言似乎总是过于仓促。

And then whether it's Japan decades ago or then China in more recent years, these countries that everyone says, Oh, this is gonna take over and The US is finished, The predictions of The US's demise always seem to be somewhat premature.

我想知道你能否谈谈，为什么美国不仅现在是投资的绝佳之地，而且一直以来都是投资者的理想选择。

And I wondered if you could talk about why The US simply is a very attractive place to invest, not just now, but it's just such a sweet spot to be an investor.

是的。

Yeah.

不，确实如此。

No, it's so true.

我的职业生涯初期，我是在詹姆斯·芬利的美国业务团队工作，我觉得那是学习的好地方。

I mean, spent the first part of my career, I'd say, working with James Finley on the American desk, and I thought that's a great place to learn.

但事实上，最终我住在英国，我本应该主要研究英国和欧洲的公司，所以我决定做出这个转变。

But actually, ultimately, I live in The UK and I should probably cover UK and European companies, so I decided to make that switch.

五年后，我又回到了研究美国公司的工作。

After five years, went back to working with chains again.

其中一个教训是，英国和欧洲市场上高质量公司的数量远远不及美国。

And one of the lessons was there's just simply not the depth of companies, of quality companies that you have in The US.

当你确实找到一家优质公司时，会有多达35位卖方分析师关注它，这些公司早已被反复研究，估值可能已经很高，因为高质量企业的选择实在太少，它们的估值倍数普遍偏高。

Where you do have a quality company, there's 35 sell side analysts and they're picked over and they're probably actually quite highly rated because there's so few choices of high quality businesses, they're trading on quite high multiples.

美国拥有成百上千家不可能被所有人完全分析的公司，还有无数卓越的企业。

America has just got hundreds, thousands of companies that can't possibly be fully analysed by everyone and just extraordinary companies and businesses.

说到美国的优势，显然你拥有一个非常高效、高度流动的资本市场。

I mean, thinking about the America advantages, obviously you've got a capital market that's very, very liquid that works.

你有三亿消费者，对吧？

You've got 300,000,000, is it consumers?

同样，这也是你商业模式的杠杆优势。

Again, switch to sort of leverage your business model.

你有一套有利于商业的监管文化。

You've got a culture of business friendly regulation.

你有法治精神、创业精神，而且坦率地说，美国有着创立新公司的悠久历史。

You've got rule of law, entrepreneurial spirit, and frankly, just a history of America creating new companies.

我的意思是，看看今天的标普500，当我们谈论那些顶级持仓时。

I mean, look at the S and P today and when we talk about look at those top holdings.

我的意思是，现在大家都在谈论英伟达，你知道的，市值上万亿美元。

Mean, we talk about Nvidia today, everyone's talking about Nvidia at the moment, you know, trillion market cap.

我的意思是，英伟达以前在哪？

I mean, where was NVIDIA?

二十五年前，它可能根本还没被发明出来。

Twenty five years ago, it probably wasn't even invented.

美国有能力不断创新，孕育出这些公司，无论是特斯拉、奈飞、微软还是苹果，在某个阶段。

America has the ability to just innovate, bring these companies, whether it's Tesla or Netflix or Microsoft or Apple at some stage.

而你看看欧洲，看看英国，英国的新公司都在哪？

And you look at Europe, look at The UK, where are the new companies in The UK?

我们也许曾经拥有Arm，但现在已经卖掉了。

Maybe we had Arm for a while, that's been sold.

而且实际上，我认为它即将在美国重新上市。

And actually, think it's gonna be relisted in The United States.

所以根本不是这样。

So just isn't.

你看看英国，只有几家银行、一些石油公司和电信公司。

You look at The UK, you've got some banks and some oil companies and some telecom companies.

美国是一个充满活力的环境，我认为你说得对，它的潜力一直被低估。

America is just such a dynamic environment, and I think you're right, it's consistently underestimated.

当你阅读英国媒体对美国的报道时，总是充满负面情绪。

When you read The UK press around America, it's always been negative.

我本人天性比较乐观，一直对美国及其活力、推动无与伦比创新的研发，以及杰出的公司和财富充满信心。

I mean, I'm naturally a slightly optimistic person, and I'm always quite optimistic about America and its dynamism and the R and D that drives unparalleled levels of innovation and extraordinary companies and wealth.

还有极其出色的工作精神。

Also an incredible work ethic.

我昨天跟妻子说，我觉得自己昨晚大概十一点才下班，而她到十点半才下班。

I was saying to my wife yesterday, I think I finished work at about eleven something last night, and she finished work at like 10:30.

我想知道，世界上还有哪里的人会在夏末时节如此规律地拼命工作呢？

It's like, where else in the world are people just sort of routinely working that ridiculously hard at the end of summer when I don't know.

我这么说并不是为了自我夸耀。

And I sort of feel I I'm not saying that to be self congratulatory.

我只是环顾四周，看到我认识的这些人在这里都工作得非常努力，我也曾在英国和香港工作过。

I just look around and I see the people I know working really hard here, and I've worked in England, and I've worked in Hong Kong.

在香港，我认为他们的工作态度非常出色。

In Hong Kong, I think they had a tremendous work ethic.

但这里似乎有一种活力、强度和生产力，还有大量资本源源不断地流向好点子。

But it just seems like there's a kind of a dynamism and an intensity and a productivity here, and also this tremendous flow of capital to good ideas.

我觉得你讲得非常好。

I think you put it extremely well.

这就是美国梦。

It's the American dream.

实际上，美国的大学也很有意思，迈克，我儿子刚上美国的大学，我大儿子，我们刚送他到那里。

Even actually US college is interesting, Mike, just my son has just started at US college, my eldest son, and we just dropped him off there.

我的意思是，英国人通常在九月或十月开始上大学，而他八月十五日就开学了。

I mean, most people in The UK start equivalent of UK university here at the September, October.

他八月十五日就开学了。

He started on August 15.

你跟他说，在美国读书，假期可没那么多。

And you tell him, you're not going to get nearly as much holiday studying in America.

他却说，是的，爸爸，我知道，但他已经下定决心了。

He's like, yeah, dad, I know, but he's committed to that.

但无论是学习，还是人们只有两周假期，想想美国吧。

But whether it's, you know, studying, whether it's people have two week holidays, think, America.

在这里，人们通常有四五周的假期。

Here, expect five weeks, four or five weeks.

所以，是的，我们有很多国家法定假日。

So, yeah, we've got a lot of national holidays.

我觉得这是文化差异。

I think it's a cultural thing.

你觉得，单看英国，是不是有点迷失方向了？

Do you feel, just looking at The UK, that it's lost the plot a little bit?

我的意思是，随着脱欧以及像大卫·卡梅伦和鲍里斯·约翰逊这样的伊顿公学出身的前首相们带来的种种灾难——他们跟我上同一所学校——你有没有一种感觉，英国已经失去了活力，不再是一个充满动力和重要性的经济力量？

I mean, with Brexit and the like and with the disasters of all your old Etonian prime ministers who went to school with me, David Cameron and Boris Johnson, is there a sense that The UK has lost its mojo and it's just not such a dynamic and important force economically?

还是说，从商业和投资的角度来看，这个国家的前景依然相当乐观？

Or does it feel like the prognosis for the country is still pretty good in terms of business and investing and the like?

我觉得我们目前处境艰难，但我对我生活和工作的这个国家依然充满乐观，这里依然存在许多成功的机会。

I think we're in a tough spot, but I am hugely optimistic about this country where I live and work and the opportunities still in this country to succeed.

我认为英国的优势依然显著，尽管人们很容易抱怨脱欧或当前的领导层。

And I think that the advantages in The UK are still significant as much as it's easy to kind of moan and say, Brexit this or the current leadership.

我依然对英国能够渡过这一难关充满信心。

I'm still very optimistic about The UK's ability to sort of pull through this.

英国和美国之间有很多相似之处。

Think there are a lot of parallels between The UK and The US.

我认为我们必须制定正确的政策。

I think we've got to get the policy right.

我认为这是关键。

I think that's key.

但我认为我们这里仍然有很多优势。

But I think we've still got a lot of advantages here.

前几天我查看了自1997年底以来富时100指数——这个英国主要指数——与美国市场的回报率，当时我有点惊讶。

I was slightly surprised when I I was looking the other day at the returns since late nineteen ninety seven of the FTSE 100, this big British index, versus The US market.

所以这是从1997年以来很长一段时间，大约二十六年左右。

And so this is a long period of time since 'ninety seven, so what, twenty six years, something like that.

富时100指数的年均回报率为3.7%，而标普500指数虽然不算惊艳，但也还过得去，年均回报率为8.3%。

And the FTSE has averaged 3.7 a year, whereas the S and P, which hasn't been stunning but has been okay, has been 8.3%.

也就是说，在这么长的时间里，回报率一直相当低迷。

And so, I mean, just a very long period of pretty dismal returns.

为什么会这样？

Why is that?

为什么英国——这个我出生并最初在21、22岁离开前往纽约的国家——在过去二十五年里表现得如此平庸？

Why has The UK, the country that I came from and that I sort of left initially when I was about 21, 22 to move to New York, why has it been so lackluster for the last quarter century?

嗯，部分原因我们刚才已经讨论过了。

Well, think part of the explanation is what we were just talking about.

美国具备自我更新、重新构想和创造新企业的能力。

America's ability to renew, reimagine, create new businesses.

如果你把那些巨头公司从指数中剔除，只看通用电气、埃克森美孚和一些银行，结果可能并不会差太多。

If you take those mega cap companies, if you take some of those new companies out of the index and you just were to measure GE and Exxon and some banks, you probably wouldn't have a dissimilar result.

所以我认为，美国的优势在于能够创立企业，利用庞大的消费市场，并将这些优势扩展到全球。

So I think it's America's ability to create companies, leverage that over a large consumer base and then leverage those internationally.

我认为英国在这方面由于规模和体量的限制，处于某种劣势。

I think The UK is at somewhat of a disadvantage there in terms of the size and scale.

英国确实有很多创新和优秀的企业，但它们往往被收购了。

You do get a lot of innovation and great companies, but they do get taken out.

当它们估值达到50亿、100亿、200亿美元时，就消失了，或者重新在美國上市。

Disappear at 5,000,000,000, 10,000,000,000, 20,000,000,000 or they relist in America.

弗格森就是一个很好的例子。

Ferguson's a great example.

我的意思是，他们重新定位了自己的业务，专注于美国市场，并在美国重新上市，成为了一家非常成功的企业。

I mean, they reimagine their business to just a US business and they relist it in The United States, actually being a very successful company.

所以我认为这就是关键所在。

So I think that's it really.

这是美国创造新兴活力企业的能力。

It's America's ability to create new dynamic businesses.

英国呢，你看看它的指数，仍然由十年前、二十年前差不多的公司组成。

UK, sort of you look at the index, still composed of much the same sort of companies as ten, twenty years ago.

你曾简短提到你儿子去美国上大学。

You mentioned briefly your son going off to American University.

如果我没记错的话，你只有一个孩子。

I think you just have the one child, if I remember rightly.

几个月前我们刚开始非正式安排这次对话时，你最后时刻给我发消息说，你儿子即将在哈罗公学打最后一场足球赛，你想去现场看他比赛。

And when we when when when we first scheduled a conversation a few months ago, just informally, you you wrote to me at the last minute, and you were like, my son is about to play his last soccer game at Harrow, and I wanna go watch watch him play.

我们能改到今天晚些时候再聊吗？

Can we reschedule for later in the day?

作为有两个孩子的父母，我非常理解这一点，尽管我其实没去看过他们多少场比赛。

Which I which I I I loved as the parent of two children, although I never made it to quite many of their games.

这就引出了一个问题：你是如何平衡这份极其紧张的工作——带领十三、十四、十五位投资者，管理一百零五亿美元，运营这样一个成功的基金——同时还要兼顾家庭、生活和一些兴趣爱好呢？

And it it just raises this question of how you've managed to balance this pretty intense job of leading a team of thirteen, fourteen, 15 investors, managing 10 and a half billion dollars, managing this very successful fund, and at the same time, trying to have a family and some kind of life and some sort of hobbies.

你发现了哪些管理时间的方法，能在保持高水平表现的同时，又不让自己精疲力尽？

What have you figured out about how to manage your time and perform at a high level while also not burning out?

是的，这是个很好的问题。

Yeah, no, it's a great question.

我儿子会说：爸爸，你可能去了那场比赛，但你知道有多少其他父母——爸爸和妈妈——也都在这些比赛现场吗？你最终出席了多少场呢？

My son would say that dad, I may have gone to that match, but dad, do you know how many other dads, moms and dads are at these matches and you know, you turned out to X many?

所以，我不得不承认，我确实感到有些愧疚，但我也已经尽了最大努力。

So I'm afraid I get the, you know, I do feel rather guilty that I've, you know, I've done my best.

你只能尽力而为。

You just try and do your best.

我的一个秘诀是睡眠很少。

I mean, I think one of the secrets for me is I don't sleep very much.

从二十多岁开始，我就靠很少的睡眠撑过来。

And I, you know, since my 20s I get by on limited amount of sleep.

所以我能很好地平衡工作、家庭时间，以及我自己想做的其他事情，比如锻炼、运动或爱好。

And so somehow I can manage and balance my work, you know, my work, my sort of family time, and then the other things that I want to do for myself, you know, whether it's exercise or sport or, you know, hobbies.

我觉得我在这方面还算平衡得不错，但这确实是个挑战。

You know, I think I've balanced that sort of reasonably well, but it's, you know, it's a challenge.

你每天睡多久？

How little do you sleep?

我每晚大概睡四五个小时。

Well, I probably sleep about four or five hours a night.

事实上，今天早上我醒来时，今天日程很满，昨天晚上也很忙。

In fact, I woke up this morning and I had a very busy day today, it's a big busy day yesterday night.

我妻子通常七点起床，她七点就醒了，而我还躺在床上。

And I woke up at, my wife wakes up about seven and she woke up at 07:00 and I was still in bed.

她看着我，问我：‘怎么了？’

And she looks at me and she went, What's wrong?

怎么了？

What's wrong?

你还好吗？

Are you okay?

这让我想起，事实上，当她醒来时，我从来不在床上，因为我会在五点半左右起床，做些运动，或者开始一天的工作，我的大脑总是很活跃，我每周七天都这样。

It just reminded me that in fact, you know, when she wakes up, I'm never in bed because, you know, I get up at like 05:30 or whatever, do my, and just my brain is buzzing, I'm doing some exercise or I'm starting the day, and I do that seven days a week.

所以我觉得自己在工作、家庭和娱乐之间确实保持了不错的平衡，但这一直是个挑战。

So I feel like I actually have got a good balance between, you know, work, family, and and and play, but it's always a challenge.

这很有趣，因为我写过一些关于健康之类的话题，因此采访过很多这样的人，比如写了《我们为什么睡觉》这本书的马修·沃克。

It's interesting because I've written a bit about, like, health and the like, and so I got to interview all of these people like Matthew Walker who who wrote this book, Why We Sleep.

所以，现在几乎形成了一种宗教般的共识：你必须睡七小时以上，最好八小时，我们就是需要这么多睡眠。

So it's really become almost this religious orthodoxy that you have to sleep seven plus hours, maybe eight hours, and that we just need it.

如果你睡得少，简直就像酒驾一样危险，会对健康造成一系列灾难性的影响。

That you're basically driving drunk if you're sleeping less, and it causes all of these catastrophic effects on your health.

我对此想了很多，我不确定。

And I've thought about it a lot, I I don't know.

我觉得我整个来说每天只睡六个半小时左右。

I think I only sleep about six and a half hours on the whole.

在我职业生涯早期，我觉得我们都某种程度上推崇少睡的理念。

And and earlier in my career, I think we'd all kind of glorified the idea of sleeping less.

我记得听说过像撒切尔夫人这样的人只睡四个小时。

I remember hearing that people like Margaret Thatcher slept four hours.

我记得我以前在时代公司的一位老板，负责大约150本杂志，也规定自己只睡四个小时。

And I remember an old boss of mine at Time Inc, who was in charge of like 150 magazines, was set to sleep four hours.

这当时是一种男子气概的象征。

And this was a sort of macho thing.

我记得马修·沃克对我说过，是的，但像里根和撒切尔这样睡得很少的人最终都患上了阿尔茨海默病。

And I remember Matthew Walker saying to me, yeah, but people like Reagan and Thatcher who slept very little ended up with Alzheimer's.

所以这真是一个很有趣的问题。

And so it's a really interesting thing.

我不知道，我们被潜移默化地认为这些东西对健康有害，这在多大程度上是被灌输的，又在多大程度上是真实的。

I don't know whether to what extent we're being kind of brainwashed into thinking this stuff is really bad for our health and to what extent it's really true.

但同样地，感觉钟摆已经完全摆到了另一端。

But again, it feels like the pendulum has totally swung to the other side.

而且有一种感觉——

And there's a sense-

我的意思是，我读过马修·沃克的书，也读过《为什么我们要睡觉？》。

Well, mean, I've read Matthew Walker and I've read that Is It Why We Sleep?

我几年前读过，觉得很有道理。

I read it a few years ago, and I thought it made a lot of sense.

那是一本非常出色的书。

And it was a brilliant book.

我试着给自己这样的机会。

And I tried to give myself the opportunity.

其中一部分，就是给自己这样的机会。

Part of it is giving yourself the opportunity.

你需要给自己机会去偷懒。

You need to give yourself the opportunity to steal.

我给自己创造了机会，但我就是做不到。

I gave myself the opportunity, but I just couldn't do it.

我用了Fitbit，努力尝试、管理和监测我的睡眠，可我还是做不到。

And I had the Fitbits and I was trying and managing and measuring my sleep, I just couldn't do it.

你知道的，我失败了。

And it just, you know, I failed.

我的意思是，我可能比我的妻子早死几年，但在我一生中清醒的小时数可能实际上和她差不多，即使她比我多活十年。

I mean, figure that I'll probably die a bit earlier than my wife, but the number of waking hours that I'm awake during my lifetime might actually be similar, even if she lives ten years longer than me.

听好了，我们走着瞧吧。

Listen, we'll see.

是的。

Yeah.

所以这有点

So it's sort

我在采访马修时发现，他在私下对话中比作为公开倡导者时更坦率地谈论这个问题。

that Matthew doesn't when I interviewed him, I think he's he's more open about this in private conversation than he is as a sort of public proselytizer.

我认为他是一个非常重要的公共倡导者，睡眠极其重要。

And I think he's a very important public proselytizer, and sleep's hugely important.

但我认为他在私下里更坦诚地承认，我们之间存在着巨大差异。

But I think he's more open in private about the fact that we are very, very different.

他给我的一条很有帮助的建议是：看看周末你不设闹钟时会发生什么。

And one piece of advice he gave me that was helpful was he said, See what happens at the weekend when you don't set your alarm.

看看你白天不设闹钟时会发生什么。

See what happens during the day when you don't set your alarm.

看看你什么时候自然醒来。

See what time you wake up.

所以在新冠疫情期间，我开始这么做。

And so during COVID, I started to do that.

我再也不设闹钟了。

I just wouldn't set my alarm ever.

我仍然会在差不多相同的时间醒来，但我认为自己被严重扰乱了，因为我基本上每周要喝300杯咖啡。

I still wake up kind of around the same time, but I think I'm so screwed up by the fact that I basically subsist on about 300 cups of coffee a week.

所以我想我可能是地球上最糟糕的例子了。

And so I think I may just be the worst example on earth.

但我不想在这方面自我指涉，除了这些，你在提高生产力、应对压力以及高效运作方面，还发现过哪些对你特别有帮助的方法吗？

But I without wanting to be self referential about this, like, are there other things in terms of productivity and and handling stress and operating at a high level that you've just found very helpful for yourself?

我觉得我……我的意思是，我热爱我所做的事情。

I think I'm, I mean, I love what I do.

人们常说老生常谈，比如，你对年轻人有什么建议吗？

People say cliche, know, actually have you got any advice for young people?

那就是，追随你的热情，做你喜欢的事。

It's like, you know, follow your passion, do you do, do what you enjoy.

但我觉得自己非常幸运。

But I think I've been very lucky.

我当初对这个行业一无所知，而我是在资产管理工作还无人知晓的时候进入这一行的，我的大多数朋友那时甚至都不知道什么是资产管理。

I had no idea about this business, and I say I got a job in asset management at a time when no one knew what asset management was, most of my friends didn't.

他们知道投资银行是做什么的，而我其实并不了解。

They knew what investment banking was, and I didn't really know.

我某种程度上幸运地加入了一家了不起的公司，在那里我可以倾听并从很多人身上学习，詹姆斯·芬尼是我生命中最重要的导师，我真的很喜欢。

I sort of landed on my feet in a way in this amazing company that, you know, I could listen and learn from a lot of people, and James Finney, this greatest mentor in my life, I just love it.

我热爱我所做的事情。

I love doing what I do.

所以这使得过去三十年的生活变得非常美好。

So that makes life, you know, the last thirty years really great.

我的意思是，你不仅能赚钱，还能了解这个世界，做出一些判断，犯一些错误，然后从中学习并变得更好。

I mean, you get paid to learn about the world and make a few bets and make a few mistakes and hopefully learn from those and get better.

而且我真的热爱我所做的事情。

And it's just I love what I do.

所以我认为这对心理健康真的非常重要。

So I think that's really, really important in sort of mental well-being.

我有一位了不起的妻子，她是我的支柱。

I have an amazing wife who is my rock.

我的意思是，她非常支持我。

I mean, she's incredibly supportive.

我们从20岁起就在一起了。

We've been together since we were 20.

每当我遇到难题，比如需要解决某个问题，而工作中又没人可以倾诉时——虽然我和我的管理合伙人西蒙关系坦诚，但妻子一直帮我解决问题，应对偶尔的麻烦，或在需要做关键决策的重要转折点上给予我极大帮助。

And if I ever have issues where I'm thinking about this issue I need to solve or sometimes there's not someone at work you can talk to about it, mean I have my managing partner here Simon who we're open with, but she's been incredibly helpful in helping me solve problems and manage through the odd issue here or there, or key turning points when decisions need to be made.

我有一个非常支持我的妻子，她自己也有一个充满支持的家庭，而她本人也一直非常支持我。

I've got a very supportive she's got a very supportive family, and she's also been incredibly supportive.

这让我过得相当轻松，我想我们 somehow 找到了一种良好的平衡方式。

So it has made it pretty easy, and I think somehow we've sort of found a way to have a good balance.

她总是会说，安东尼，我希望你多休点假，别那么拼命工作，但你看，这就是我的工作，我热爱它，这是一种责任，我认真对待它。

And when you she look should always say, you know, Anthony, I'd like you to take a bit more holiday, I'd like you to work a bit less hard, but look, this is the job I have and I love it, and it's a responsibility, and you take that seriously.

现在，当你回顾过去三十年的成功时，显然你付出了巨大的努力和技能，拥有良好的原则、优秀的导师和良好的性格等等。

And now when you look back on your success over the last thirty years, obviously there's been a great deal of hard work and skill, you had good principles a good mentor and good temperament and the like.

但我很好奇，你觉得运气在其中扮演了什么角色？毕竟，你恰好进入了那个培训项目，加入了那位伟大的投资者詹姆斯·芬尼的团队。

But I'm wondering how you feel luck has factored into it, because you did just land there in that training program, the graduate training program with this great investor, James Findlay.

你很幸运地将注意力集中在了美国这个好市场上。

You had the luck of focusing on a good market with The US.

我的意思是，如果你过去二十五年专注于富时100指数股票，结果就不会这么好了。

I mean, wouldn't have been so good if you'd spent the last twenty five years focusing on FTSE one hundred stocks.

你如何分配成功中百分之三十来自运气、百分之五十来自技能的比重呢？

How do you apportion the degree of success thirty:fifty that's come from luck and the degree that's come

你觉得呢？

from skill, do you think?

我觉得这完全是运气使然。

I think it's a hell of a lot of luck.

我的意思是，正如你所说，我对资产管理一无所知。

I mean, as you said, you know, I didn't know anything about asset management.

我被安排到美国交易台，和当时的上司安德鲁·巴克尔、詹姆斯·芬利一起工作。

I sort of got put on the US desk working with Andrew Barker, who was my boss at the time, James Finley.

看到一个比我大十五岁的人——我说的‘年轻人’，其实我当时才是年轻人，但他是个三十多岁的小伙子，正在打拼，我们一拍即合，建立了默契。

And seeing this kid who was fifteen years older than me, I say kid, I was the kid, but he was a young guy in his sort of mid-30s making his way, and we hit it off, we connected.