RWH038：2.6万亿美元的男人 与里克·里德

你知道，我职业生涯中也经历过亏损，正如我所说，我只是想确保自己能尽量避免这种情况。

Know, I've had and like I said, I've taken losses over my career, and, you know, I just want make sure that I'm that I'm trying to insulate from that.

但这一点深深印在我的脑海中，那就是随机游走与趋势并存的哲学，务必谨慎优化，而不是站在趋势的反面。

But it it just emblazoned in my mind the philosophy around, you know, the random walk alongside of a trend and just make sure you're being thoughtful about optimising it versus being on the wrong side of it.

是的。

Yeah.

你的策略或成功中，很大一部分似乎就是避免灾难——你成功地留在了游戏中，而许多非常有才华的交易员和投资者却早已爆仓。

It seems like a a huge part of your your processes or or your success is simply this avoidance of catastrophe, the fact that you've managed to stay in the game, whereas a lot of a a lot of very talented traders, very talented investors have just blown themselves up.

我记得你曾经说过，你会看到一位出色的交易员连续三次押对了，却在第四笔交易中爆仓。

I I remember you once saying you would watch a great trader who'd get three three bets right and then would blow themselves up on the fourth trade.

你能谈谈这个吗？

Can can you talk about that?

我的意思是，从人性角度来说，到底发生了什么？就像本·格雷厄姆说的，我们投资者最大的敌人往往是自己。

Like, what I mean, what's what's happening just in human terms that people temperamentally, as as Ben Graham would say, we're our own worst enemy as as investors.

我先说第一点。

So I'll say the first thing.

当你说‘成功’的时候，我其实并不觉得自己算成功。

I really don't regard myself when you say successful.

比如，我一直觉得推动我的一部分原因是，我不太把自己看作已经定型的人，这更像是一个持续的挑战。

Like, I always think part of what motivates me is I don't really regard my I think it's a constant challenge.

比如，我回望过去，会想有些事情我本该做，或者有些事情，我觉得促使人们避免走向崩溃的原因之一，就是我始终觉得，我还没真正搞明白。

Like, I, you know, I look back and I said, like, there are things I should have done or things like, I I think part of what motivates people to to, you know, not be in that where you where you blow up is like like, I don't, you know, I don't think I figured it out.

我觉得我并没有真正成功，但我也确实做过一些不错的事，并因此获得了一些认可。

Like, I don't think I'm you know, and I think I do I think we do some good things and you get some, you know, recognition for doing some good things.

但你知道，我觉得真正发生的是——我研究过这个，真的很有趣。

But, you know, I think what happens is and and we I studied this, and, it was really cool.

我们做了一些分析，来看看究竟是谁能够取得成功。

We did some things on, to look at, you know, who succeeds.

有趣的是，尤其是在男性身上，存在一种关于自信心建立的动态机制。

And it's interesting in in in in and it happens to be more in males that there is this this dynamic around where you build a confidence level.

我永远不会忘记这项研究，它提到了网球运动员，不过我不确定要不要谈网球。

And I'll never get this study that showed tennis players I'm not sure if talk about tennis.

我更喜欢高尔夫。

I prefer golf.

但网球选手，你知道，当他们处于有利位置时，男性往往倾向于全力出击。

But tennis players, you know, when they when they are set up, how men tend to try and go for it.

当他们领先时，往往会更加激进。

And when they're ahead, they tend to go for it.

我经常看到这种情况：有些人四笔交易中赢了三笔，却因为自信心过强、仓位过大，结果第四笔交易亏了钱。

And I see this all the time is people who get three out of four trades right, and then they're down money because they got their confidence level was too big, their positions got too big, and then the fourth position hurt them.

或者第四笔交易的仓位没有根据潜在亏损与潜在收益的比例进行适当调整。

And or the fourth position wasn't scaled to what is the downside versus the upside.

我认为这非常重要：在我的固定收益、债券投资理念中，债券到期时要么按面值偿还，要么下跌。

And I think that is such a big deal is, you know, part of my philosophy around in fixed income, in bonds, bonds mature at par or they go down.

所以我总是说，要多次小赚，多做相对价值决策，尽量避免一笔交易亏损达到三倍，因为在债券市场，一旦判断错误，价格可能下跌80点，而你原本只希望拿到100美分的面值。

And so I always say make a little bit of money a lot of times, make a lot of relative value decisions, You know, try not to have that one trade blow up to three because in, you know, bonds, if you're wrong, they go down 80 points and you're hoping to get a par of a 100¢ on the dollar.

所以，别变得过度自信，即使交易顺风顺水，也别过度自信。

So, you know, this idea of don't get overconfident, don't have one even though it's working, don't get overconfident.

我经常看到这种情况。

I see it all the time.

我的意思是，投资者和交易员的自信心总是不断增长。

I mean, all the time with investors, traders that you see the confidence levels growing.

我刚做了一笔好交易，接着又一笔，再一笔，然后他们最终受伤了。

I just had a good trade, another one, another one, and then they end up getting they and they end up getting hurt.

但我认为这在投资或交易中是个非常重要的问题。

But that but I think it's a really big deal around investing or trading.

我想特别强调给我们的听众，里克刚才提到的那句话非常重要，这可以说是他的座右铭：一次赚一点钱，多次积累，因为这正是里克投资理念的核心——不是追求全垒打，而是审慎分散风险，力求生存，追求相对稳定的回报，同时避免巨大下行风险。

I I I really wanna emphasize for our listeners the importance of that that line that Rick just mentioned, which is kind of kind of a a mantra or motto of his, which is let's make a little bit of money a lot of times because it's so central to Rick's approach of really not so much swinging for the fences as diversifying thoughtfully, trying to survive, trying trying to get relatively consistent returns without huge downside.

但某种程度上，这让我感到好奇，里克，因为这在某种程度上与查理·芒格的做法恰恰相反，我们上周读了很多关于他的内容，我过去也采访过他，而他几天前刚刚去世。

But in a way, it's curious to me, Rick, because it's sort of it's sort of the the opposite in some ways of the approach of someone like a Charlie Munger who we've read about a lot in the last week and who I've interviewed in the past and who just passed away a few days ago.

因为查理会谈论自己像一个捕鱼者，坐在溪边，只等待一条肥美的大鲑鱼，然后一叉刺中，之后就回去无所事事。

Because Charlie would talk about being a spear fisherman who would sit by the side of the stream and just wait for one big fat juicy salmon and would then spear it and then go back to doing nothing.

所以某种程度上，他非常推崇一种高度集中的策略——如果你真的知道自己在做什么，就等待真正绝佳的机会，除此之外，就什么都不做。

So in a way, he was a he was a great advocate of, at least if you really know what you're doing, having a very concentrated approach where because you don't know that many things, you wait for something that's a really great opportunity, and otherwise, you just don't do that much.

从某种意义上说，通往山顶的路有无数条，但我很好奇你能否为我剖析一下其中的差异，因为这里存在着一种在哲学和性格上截然不同的东西，而你恰恰体现了这一点。

And you in a way I mean, there are so many different paths up the mountain, but I wonder if you could unpack for me the difference because there's something very different philosophically and temperamentally going on here that you embody.

我想说几点。

So I'd say a couple of things.

首先，我认为股权和债务、债券是非常不同的。

You know, the first one is I think I think equity and debt is and bonds are very, very different.

我认同股权，就像你刚才描述的那样。

I believe in equity and similar to the to the description you had.

在股票投资中，你应该更加集中，因为它们的收益具有上行凸性。

In equities, you should concentrate more because they are convexed to the upside.

你想一想，公司会产生净资产收益率，不管具体数字是多少，尤其是科技公司和风险企业，如果你处在正确的领域，就有可能让利润和收入成倍增长。

You think about companies throw off return on equity, whatever the numbers are, and particularly tech companies, venture companies, you can, if you're in the right zone, can multiply your profits, and multiply your revenues.

而且而且

And And

所以在股票方面，我实际上主张集中投资，合理地扩大仓位

so in equities, I actually believe in concentration scaling your positions the right

如果你真的相信某件事，你就能把它做大。

if you really believe in something, you can grow it.

但债券不同，因为它们在下行方向具有凸性。

But bonds are different and because of they are convex to the downside.

所以在债券方面，我觉得应该多次小赚一点，分散投资。

So in bonds, I feel like this make a little bit of money a lot of times diversify.

但在股票方面，我实际上喜欢加仓。

But I like in equities, I actually like scaling.

这些年我非常非常看好的一些公司，包括今天仍然如此。

Some of the companies that are invested over the years that I really, really like, including today.

我的意思是，我们会持有更大的仓位，不仅加大仓位，还会使用期权来放大其上行潜力。

I mean, we take bigger positions and I think and not only take bigger positions, we use options to try and amplify the upside of it.

所以我认为，这是其中一部分。

So I think I think that is that is one part of it.

第二点是，你知道，这还取决于你是谁，以及你的目标是什么，比如我们是为客户管理资金，无论是警察、消防员、教师等等。

Second is, you know, I think it depends who you are and what your objectives are as well in terms of are you know, we're managing money for clients and, you know, whether it's policemen, firemen, teachers, etcetera.

而且，我非常认真地看待这一点，因为这关系到他们的退休生活，关系到他们的福祉，我不能随意去赌一把。

And, you know, I take it quite seriously that, you know, it's where their retirement, it's their well-being, and, you know, this idea that I'm gonna swing it.

我努力要做的，是以一种深思熟虑、高效的方式保护并增长他们的退休金，同时避免巨大的下行风险。

And what I'm trying to protect is grow their retirement pool in a deliberate, efficient way without that big downside.

我的意思是，如果你在管理自己的钱，或者管理你个人的资金，你愿意承担风险，因为你愿意承受个人的损失。

I mean, you're managing your own money or you're managing your own, whether your own specific, you're willing to take risks because you're willing to take your own personal downside.

我认为这是完全不同的一个框架。

I think that's a very different framework.

另外，我觉得思维方式也略有不同，伯克希尔是一个非常独特的地方。

Also think a little bit different, Berkshire's a pretty unique place.

但你也得看你所处的规模有多大。

But, you know, it also depends on the scale that you're operating in.

我们管理着大量资产，一旦做出了重大高风险决策，想要退出几乎是不可能的。

We run a lot of assets and the scale, the idea of we're going to get out if we've made a big risky decision, pretty darn hard.

我认为，如果你是一家保险公司，你面对的是长期负债，你的持有期可以长达二十年。

I think if you're an insurance company, you have long dated liabilities, your holding beard can be twenty years.

我们会根据客户的不同类型来衡量，有些客户投资于流动性很强的基金，几乎每天都关注回报。

We get measured, our clients, depending on who the clients are, we have some that are in very liquid funds, looking to returns almost every day.

那么，你有能力持有二十年吗？

And so do you have the ability to hold on for twenty years?

你的投资目标是什么？

What is your investment objective?

我们通常把大部分投资组合视为以六个月为周期来考量。

Tend to think of most of our portfolios, tend to think of things in six month increments.

这会有所不同。

It varies.

如果是私人投资，我的持有期限会更长。

If it's a private investment, I've got a longer throw to it.

如果是像国债或久期这样的投资，我的期限就会更短。

If it's you know, something like treasuries or duration, you know, I'm shorter.

所以这取决于你为谁投资。

So it depends on, you know, who are you investing for?

你的目标是什么？

What's your objectives set?

你的规模有多大？

How big is your know, what's your scaling?

是债务还是股权？

Is it debt versus equity?

我认为所有这些因素都会影响决策。

And so I think all of that goes into the equation.

我觉得你刚才提到的长期持有的能力真的很重要。

I think also what you just said about the ability to hold on is is really important.

我读到过你的一句话，印象非常深刻，你说：无论我投资于信贷、股票还是其他任何东西，真正重要的只有三件事。

And I I was very struck by a quote of yours that I'd read where you said, I've always found when I've invested in credit or equities or anything, there are only three things that matter for investing.

那就是杠杆、流动性和现金流。

And that's leverage, liquidity, and cash flow.

你提到，如果杠杆很高，但流动性充足且现金流强劲，那你就没问题。

And you talked about how if your leverage is high, but you've got plenty of liquidity and your cash flow is high, you're okay.

你可以挺过去。

You can survive.

但你说这完全取决于你如何偿还我的债务。

But so you said it's all about how you can service my debt.

从某种意义上说，这又回到了你早期在加拿大债券上惨败的那段经历。

And in a way, it goes back to that very early experience where you got blown up on that Canadian bond.

是的。

Yeah.

不。

No.

我的意思是，顺便说一句，能成为这些关键因素之一，确实是一种莫大的荣誉。

I mean, by the way, it's quite an honor that one of these things that are really when when looking at these things.

所以，我认为，我确实认为只有三件事最重要：杠杆、流动性、现金流。

So, you know, I think the I think there's I literally think there's only three things that matter, leverage, liquidity, cash flow.

而且，我知道，你可以承担很高的杠杆。

And, you know, I've learned that you can run a lot of leverage.

顺便说一下，我认为这对美国政府来说是一个当前严峻的问题。

And by the way, I think this is a this is an acute problem for the US government today.

只要你的现金流足够，只要你有流动性，就可以承担大量杠杆。

You can run a lot of leverage as long as as long as your cash flow exceed as long as you have a liquidity.

如果你的流动性耗尽了，那就完了。

If it if you run out of liquidity, it's over.

所以你必须深刻理解你的流动性是什么，以及什么会破坏你的流动性，因为一旦失去流动性，游戏就结束了。抛开这一点，剩下的就是你的现金流与杠杆之间的关系。

And so you got to know deep down what is your liquidity and what can disrupt your liquidity because it's game over if that So to put that aside, then it's your cash flow versus your leverage.

你可以像美国政府那样承担大量杠杆，只要你的现金流——也就是税收或收入来源——足够高，并且你的债务成本足够低，也就是说你的现金流高于债务成本，你的现金流就充裕。

You can run, like US government, you can run a lot of leverage as long as your cash flow, your tax stream or your revenue stream is high enough and your cost of the debt is Meaning your cash flow exceeds your cost of the debt, your cash flow is high.

对美国政府来说，这是一件非常重大的事情。

Think for the US government, it's a really big deal.

我们现在以5.5%的利率为国家融资，这和过去长期以零利率或1%的利率融资是完全不同的。

We're funding the country at 5.5% is different than when we were funding at zero or 1% for a long time.

在我看来，这就是全部关键所在。

To me, that is the whole deal.

我审视一切，无论是股票、债券，还是房地产、杠杆流动性、现金流。

I look at everything, whether it's an equity, whether it's a bond, whether it's a piece of real estate, leveraged liquidity, cash flow.

而且，你知道，这些因素在不同形式中所占的比重可以有所不同。

And, you know, it can be on different forms how much emphasis you put on each of them.

但这些是每个资产都必须考虑的三个关键点。

But those are the three things on every single asset.

我想挑战一下人们。

I wanna challenge people.

比如，我可能是个文盲，不是说我完全搞懂了，但我感觉我能把一切东西拆解，归入这三个类别中。

Like, I can I'm an illiterate not that I not that I necessarily have it figured out, but I but I feel like I can put those I can take everything and put and figure out those buckets.

然后说，即使是很复杂的、分层的CLO房地产证券化产品，从超级优先级到股权和夹层，我也只想弄清楚这三个指标。

And then say, you know, even if it's sophisticated, trancheed CLO real estate securitization, you've got super senior down to equity and mezz, and I just wanna know those three metrics.

然后你处于这个谱系的哪个位置？你是处于现金流分配的顶端，还是底层？

And then where are you in that in that spectrum of are you at the top of the stack, at the bottom of the stack in terms of how your cash flow gets to you?

我真的不知道。

And I I I don't know.

我觉得用这种方式可以孤立任何投资。

I'd feel really feel like you can isolate any investment that way.

而且

And

我记得我当时非常天真，我的意思是，我现在依然挺天真的，但二十岁出头的时候更天真。

I remember it's a very naive I mean, I'm still pretty naive, but I was even more naive in my in my early twenties.

我和我哥哥在纽约买了一套公寓，因为他想离他正在约会的女生更近一些。

My brother and I bought an apartment in New York because he wanted to be nearer to this girl he was dating.

我不想让他发财而把我甩在后面。

And and I didn't want him to get rich without me.

所以我买下了这套公寓的一小部分产权，那时是八十年代末，房地产市场开始崩盘。

So I bought a small stake in the apartment, and then it was the late eighties and the property market kinda collapsed.

我们当时太天真了。

And we were so naive.

我们有一笔可调利率抵押贷款，而利率却飙升到了不可思议的程度。

We had an adjustable rate mortgage and interest rates went something crazy.

我觉得我们当时付的利率大概是14%左右，简直太离谱了。

Like, I think we were paying something like 14% or something crazy.

我当时是个年轻的作家。

And I was a young writer.

我的收入并不多。

I didn't have much of an income.

我记得那种恐惧感——钱不断花出去，却没多少进账。

And I remember the terror of having lots of money going out and not that much money coming in.

就像你早期投资加拿大债券失败的经历一样，我再也不想陷入任何一次资金短缺、面临风险的境地，所以我一直量入为出，从不背太多债务。

And I think in the same way as your early experience with the the Canadian bond that went wrong, I just never wanted to be in a position ever again where I was caught short, where I was at risk of just finding so so I've just always lived within my means that I've never had much debt.

当我读到你谈到流动性的重要性时，我深有共鸣，真的非常有共鸣。

And I I think it was just such a that so so when I read you talking about just the importance of liquidity, it just deeply resonated with me personally, I think.

所以你知道吗，我看很多风险投资领域的公司，它们都在增长。

So, you know, I I I find it like I look at a lot of companies in venture space, and, you know, and they grow.

其中一些公司在扩张时非常务实。

You know, some of them are very pragmatic about how they grow.

因为他们通常需要消耗大量现金，因为你正在建立业务。

And they because they've gotta usually, they burn a lot of cash because you're building the business.

你得在研发和资本支出上花钱，还得雇人，你必须不断扩张。

You gotta spend on r on r and d and CapEx and hire people, and you just gotta grow.

因此，你常常会看到他们扩张得太快，却没有有效管理流动性。

And you and so oftentimes, you see where they grow too fast, and they're not managing their liquidity effectively enough.

你可能拥有一个会爆炸式增长的绝佳商业模式。

And you could have the greatest business model that will explode.

但结果却并没有发生。

And and then and then it doesn't.

然后突然间，比如出现了某种外部因素，你的流动性枯竭了，这个原本了不起的商业模式就消失了。

And then all of a sudden, like, you know, something happened exogenous and your liquidity dries up and that this unbelievable business model goes goes away.

我认为确实是这样。

And I think it is yeah.

我认为你必须明白，当你想到房地产时，比如我早期做过一些销售，就像你描述的那样，当时市场下跌了，而我手头没有任何资金。

I think you have to understand that that that that you know, when you think about it in real estate, like, I've made some sales of of, like you were describing, you know, early early on where, you know, like, market went down and, like, you know, I didn't have any money.

所以呢，你知道，你有个卖家。

And so you, you know, like, you you got a seller.

你得想办法，不然就得在不想卖的价格上出手。

You've gotta, figure you out something, or you sell at a price that you don't wanna sell at.

所以我觉得，你得确保自己的流动性。

And so I, you know, I think you just gotta make sure your liquidity.

对我来说，这是第一要务。

Like, that to me is the first thing.

每天我们都在看新的投资机会，尤其是当你在看股权、风险投资或更具投机性的投资时。

And and and every day, we're looking at new investments, and and particularly when you're looking at equity or venture or more speculative investments.

他们有没有考虑过应急流动性？

And have they thought through contingent liquidity?

你可以做很多事，比如银行授信额度之类的，但如果情况突变，你的应急流动性是什么？

There's a lot of things you could do around bank revolvers and things about, but what is your contingent liquidity if x hits the fan?

在我看来，这太重要了。

To me, that is such a big deal.

让我们短暂休息一下，听听今天赞助商的发言。

Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors.

好的。

Alright.

我想让你们想象一下，在夏季高峰期待在奥斯陆的三天。

I want you guys to imagine spending three days in Oslo at the height of the summer.

你有漫长的白昼、绝佳的美食、漂浮在奥斯陆峡湾上的桑拿房，而且你每一次交谈的对象都是真正塑造未来的人。

You got long days of daylight, incredible food, floating saunas on the Oslo Fjord, and every conversation you have is with people who are actually shaping the future.

这就是奥斯陆自由论坛。

That's what the Oslo Freedom Forum is.

从2026年6月1日到6月20日，奥斯陆自由论坛将迎来它的第十八个年头，汇聚来自世界各地的活动家、技术专家、记者、投资者和建设者。

From June 1 through the third twenty twenty six, the Oslo Freedom Forum is entering its eighteenth year bringing together activists, technologists, journalists, investors, and builders from all over the world.

其中许多人正活跃在历史的最前沿。

Many of them operating on the front lines of history.

在这里，你可以亲耳听到人们讲述如何用比特币应对货币崩溃、用人工智能揭露人权侵犯，以及在审查和威权压力下构建技术的故事。

This is where you hear firsthand stories from people using Bitcoin to survive currency collapse, using AI to expose human rights abuses, and building technology under censorship and authoritarian pressures.

这些不是抽象的概念。

These aren't abstract ideas.

这些都是现实中的人正在使用的工具。

These are tools real people are using right now.

你会和大约2000位非凡的人物待在同一间房间里——持不同政见者、创始人、慈善家、政策制定者，这些是你不仅会聆听，还会与之共进晚餐的人。

You'll be in the room with about 2,000 extraordinary individuals, dissidents, founders, philanthropists, policymakers, the kind of people you don't just listen to but end up having dinner with.

在三天里，你将体验到震撼人心的主舞台演讲、关于自由科技和金融主权的动手工作坊、沉浸式艺术装置，以及在会议结束后仍持续进行的深入对话。

Over three days, you'll experience powerful main stage talks, hands on workshops on freedom tech and financial sovereignty, immersive art installations, and conversations that continue long after the session's end.

这一切都将在六月的奥斯陆发生。

And it's all happening in Oslo in June.

如果这听起来像是你感兴趣的场合，那你运气不错，因为你可以亲自参加。

If this sounds like your kind of room, well, you're in luck because you can attend in person.

标准票和赞助者票已在oslofreedomforum.com开放购买，赞助者票提供深度参与机会、私人活动以及与演讲者的小团体交流时间。

Standard and patron passes are available at oslofreedomforum.com with patron passes offering deep access, private events, and small group time with the speakers.

奥斯陆自由论坛不仅仅是一场会议。

The Oslo Freedom Forum isn't just a conference.

这是一个理念与现实交汇的地方，未来正由亲历者们亲手构建。

It's a place where ideas meet reality and where the future is being built by people living it.

我们许多人已经在退休账户之外购买了比特币，零零散散地积累一些比特币。

A lot of us have been buying Bitcoin outside of our retirement accounts, stacking some Bitcoin here and there.

但我们的大部分财富仍然躺在传统的401(k)或IRA账户里，被锁定在那些我们不再真正相信的股票、债券和基金中。

But most of our wealth, it's still sitting in traditional four zero one k's or IRA's locked in the stocks, bonds, and funds we don't really believe in anymore.

但大多数人并不知道的是。

But here's what most people don't know.

你可以将这笔钱投资到一个持有比特币的税收优惠退休账户中。

You can invest that money into a tax advantage retirement account that holds Bitcoin.

这被称为比特币IRA。

It's called a Bitcoin IRA.

如果操作得当，你不是通过某个ETF来换取对比特币的间接敞口，而是将真正的比特币存放在一个由你掌控密钥的保险库中。

And if you do it right, you're not just swapping stocks for Bitcoin exposure through some ETF, You're holding real Bitcoin inside a vault where you hold the keys.

这就是Unchained比特币IRA与众不同的地方。

That's where Unchained Bitcoin IRA is built different.

这是真正的多重签名，真正的链上比特币，由你掌控。

It's real multisig, real Bitcoin on chain in your control.

这意味著什么？

Here's what that means.

你享有传统罗斯IRA或SEP IRA的所有税务优惠，但并未放弃主权。

You get all the tax advantages of a traditional Roth or SEP IRA, but you're not giving up sovereignty.

你持有两个密钥，Unchained持有其中一个。

You hold two keys, Unchained holds one.

没有单一故障点。

There's no single point of failure.

你甚至只需点击几下，就可以将旧的401(k)转入比特币IRA。

You can even roll over your old four zero one k into a Bitcoin IRA with just a few clicks.

当需要传承时，内置了继承协议。

And when it's time to pass it all on, there's a built in inheritance protocol.

你的家人将获得密钥。

Your family gets keys.

没有烦恼。

No headaches.

Unchained 自2016年以来一直从事这项业务。

Unchained been doing this since 2016.

他们为超过12,000名客户保障了超过120亿美元的比特币。

They secured over 12,000,000,000 in Bitcoin for more than 12,000 clients.

这约占全球比特币总量的二百分之一。

It's about one out of every 200 Bitcoin in existence.

所以，如果你认真考虑长期持有比特币，并希望以正确的方式——主权、安全、税务优惠——在退休账户中持有，請前往 unchained.com/preston，并在结账时使用代码 Preston 10，享受首次购买10%的折扣。

So if you're serious about holding Bitcoin for the long run and you wanna do it inside a retirement account the right way, sovereign, secure, tax advantaged, go to unchained.com/preston and use code Preston 10 at checkout to get 10% off your first purchase.

别再等待，未来由你掌控。

Don't wait, the future is yours to hold.

特雷，如果你经营企业，最近你可能也产生过同样的想法。

Trey If you run a business, you've probably had the same thought lately.

怎么

How do

我们如何让人工智能在现实世界中发挥作用？

we make AI useful in the real world?

因为潜在收益巨大，但靠猜测进入这个领域风险很高。

Because the upside is huge, but guessing your way into it is a risky move.

借助甲骨文的NetSuite，您今天就能让人工智能发挥作用。

With NetSuite by Oracle, you can put AI to work today.

NetSuite是全球超过43,000家企业信赖的头号AI云ERP系统。

NetSuite is the number one AI cloud ERP trusted by over 43,000 businesses.

它将您的财务、库存、电商、人力资源和客户关系管理整合到一个统一的系统中。

It pulls your financials, inventory, commerce, HR, and CRM into one unified system.

而这种互联的数据正是让您的AI变得更智能的关键。

And that connected data is what makes your AI smarter.

它能自动化日常任务，提供可操作的洞察，帮助您降低成本，同时自信地做出快速的AI驱动决策。

It can automate routine work, surface actionable insights, and help you cut costs while making fast AI powered decisions with confidence.

现在，借助NetSuite AI连接器，您可以自由选择任何AI工具，直接连接到您的真实业务数据。

And now with the NetSuite AI Connector, you can use the AI of your choice to connect directly to your real business data.

这不是什么附加功能，而是内置在运行您业务的系统中的AI。

This isn't some add on, it's AI built into the system that runs your business.

无论您的公司年收入是数百万还是数亿，NetSuite都能帮助您保持领先。

And whether your company does millions or even hundreds of millions, NetSuite helps you stay ahead.

如果您年收入达到七位数以上，请免费获取他们的商业指南：访问 netsuite.com/study 了解如何揭开AI的神秘面纱。

If your revenues are at least in the 7 figures, get their free business guide, Demystifying AI at netsuite.com/study.

这份指南免费提供，访问 netsuite.com/study 即可获取。

The guide is free to you at netsuite.com/study.

netsuite.com/study。

Netsuite.com/study.

好的。

Alright.

回到节目。

Back to the show.

我也认为，有必要强调一下，您在华尔街经历了如此多的动荡，却能凭借智慧与好运成功应对并渡过难关。

I I also think it's it's it's worth emphasizing the degree to which you've seen chaos on Wall Street, and you've managed to survive and navigate it through a mixture of smarts and good fortune.

因为你加入的时候，运气非常好，我记得你是在1987年7月加入EF Hutton的。

Because you joined and and there was a very significant amount of good fortune because you joined EF Hutton, if I remember correctly, in July 1987.

然后在1987年10月19日，我们遭遇了黑色星期一，道琼斯指数一天内暴跌了22.6%。

And then 10/19/1987, we had Black Monday, and the Dow fell 22.6% in a day.

于是这家成立于1904年的公司，突然被迫以不到十亿美元的价格并入雷曼兄弟。

So this firm that had been founded in nineteen o four is suddenly forced into the arms of Lehman Brothers for less than a billion dollars.

于是你加入了雷曼的培训项目，之后几乎在雷曼工作了整整十九年。

So you then move to Lehman's training program, and then you work at Lehman basically for the next nineteen or so years.

然后你在雷曼破产前离开了公司。

And then you leave Lehman right before Lehman goes under.

而雷曼，这家成立于1850年的公司，突然崩塌，成为美国历史上最大的破产案。

And Lehman, this firm that was founded in 1850, suddenly implodes and is, like, the biggest bankruptcy in US history.

我记得它曾经几乎是美国第四大投资银行，拥有两万五千名员工，其中包括大量极其优秀的人才，却在眨眼之间彻底消失。

And and I I think it went from basically being the fourth largest investment bank in the country with 25,000 employees, including a hell of a lot of really talented people, to suddenly just being gone in the blink of an eye.

我想知道，你亲历了EF Hutton和雷曼这两家历史悠久、虽有诸多缺陷和人性失误却曾显赫一时的机构的衰亡，这些经历对你理解我们所处的这个充满熵增、事物终将崩解的世界，产生了怎样的影响？

And I I wonder if you could talk about what those experiences of actually seeing EF Hutton and Lehman, these two great kind of august institutions with plenty of flaws and plenty of human failures and the like, what impact that had on you in terms of understanding how how we live in a world of entropy where things fall apart.

你知道的。

You know?

而且，是的，你说了一件事，我觉得人们并没有意识到。

And and, yeah, I mean, you said something that I think is people don't realize.

我的意思是，就连在EF Hutton，我也记不太清了。

I mean, you know, even at EF Hutton, I don't remember that that well.

但我想到所有那些在EF Hutton之后取得了非凡成就的人，他们现在都在做着了不起的事情。

But I think about all the people at EF Hutton that have gone on to do some pretty incredible thing today that are doing some pretty incredible things.

人们总是会想，这不就是个实习生吗？

People always, you know, is it just a trainee?

我知道，我本人也对它充满敬意，很多人后来都做得非常出色。

You know, I was and, you know, I've had a lot of respect for it, a lot of them just done extremely well.

显然，雷曼兄弟也是如此。

And, obviously, Lehman is the same.

你知道，一个企业可能拥有大量才华横溢的人才、创新者和深思熟虑的实践者。

You know, you can have a business that's got an incredible number of talented people and and innovators and and, you know, thoughtful practitioners.

你必须时刻思考商业模式，不是回到那个点，而是商业模式到底是什么？

And then you just got to think about the business model all the time and what is not to go back to that point again, but what is the business model?

你在管理你的资产与负债匹配吗？

Are you managing your asset liability mix?

所以你在管理或有流动性，应对那种非常、非常极端的尾部风险。

So you're managing your contingent liquidity, you're managing for that you know, very, very tail scenario.

我观察了一些多年来取得成功的公司，它们经历过艰难时刻，但苹果的故事简直令人惊叹。

And I watch some of the companies, you know, that I think have been successful over the years that have had, you know, tough experiences, but, you know, Apple's a pretty incredible and pretty incredible story.

你关注的是史蒂夫·乔布斯是如何管理的吗？

Is that what you watch about, you know, how Steve Jobs managed.

我知道他经历过失败，但他后来采用了不同的管理方式，还有他在谷歌的融资方式，以及他们如何度过更艰难的时期。

I know the failures out of but then but then he, you know, had different ways to manage it and how he raised in Google as well and how they managed, you know, through some more stressful periods.

你知道，你必须不断进化、创新、改变，也要时刻提醒自己：别让商业模式、组织结构、资本结构或流动性不足破坏这一切。

And, you know, thought about you've got to evolve, you got to innovate, you got to change, and you and you got to think about the same point about just don't let the business model in a you know, or your structure, your capitalization, your lack of liquidity disrupt that.

是的。

And, yeah.

不。

No.

即使是最有才华的人，如果结构安排不当，也可能遭遇毁灭性的打击，最终导致彻底失败。

It's a pretty you know, even with the most talented people, you know, you can you can certainly if it's not structured the right way, you can have, like, epic disruption that end that ends the game.

幸运在其中所起的作用也相当惊人。

It's also quite striking the degree to which luck plays a role.

对吧？

Right?

我记得霍华德·马克斯曾经对我说，看到那些才华横溢却在50岁时被市场淘汰的人，他都会心碎，因为他们只是运气不好，恰好在危机来临时身处错误的位置。

I mean, I I remember Howard Marks once saying to me, he it it would sort of break his heart that he would see these people who got washed out at the age of 50 who were just really talented, and they just got really unlucky with where they happened to be when things fell apart.

你能谈谈运气吗？

Can can you talk a bit about just luck?

因为运气似乎在你的生活中扮演了极其重要的角色。

Because it it seems to have played a huge role in in in your life.

而且，显然你一直在与市场打交道，而市场有时会毫无道理地朝你不利的方向发展，带来沉重的打击？

And, obviously, you're dealing constantly with markets where things can just go go against you that sort of undeservedly and can kind of hit you really painfully?

所以，Mana，首先我想说，说实话，我一直以来都很幸运，因为我通常会努力让自己处于一个更有规划的位置，而不是单纯依赖运气。

So, Mana, so first of all, I'd say, you know, I'd say, finally, you know, I've been lucky I found is generally the you you usually put yourself hopefully in a position that is more designed, that is not just based on fortune.

但我的职业生涯中也经历过一些相当糟糕的时刻，就像你说的，有些事情完全背道而驰，纯粹是运气不好，但我觉得你唯一能做的，就是尽量让自己身处一个能提前预判并思考如何应对这些不幸的环境。

But I've had some pretty bad, I would say, over my career, like you say, some things that have worked against that are just surprising and bad luck are being so, you know, but I think the only thing you can do is try and orient yourself in a place where that misfortune at any given point in time, you've you've tried to anticipate in some way how you would manage through it.

但你瞧，我经常看到这个行业里有些人，只做了一笔成功的交易，加上一些不错的努力和大量的运气，之后就试图不断复制它，但第二次、第三次就不管用了。

But listen, think I've always found, you see a lot of people in this industry who had one good trade and they got, and I would say maybe some good work and a lot of luck, and then they try and replicate it over time and they're like, doesn't work the second time, the third time.

我在交易和投资中也发现过这种情况。

And I found this with trades and investments.

你知道，通常当你有一笔很棒的交易后，你会想：天啊，我记得那次。

You know, usually, if you have a great trade and you're like and then you think about, gosh, I remember that.

那次确实发生了，现在我又看到了类似的情况。

That's you know, that happened, and I'm seeing that again.

但第二次再做，几乎不可能再达到第一次那样的成功幅度，通常都不会奏效。

It usually never is successful a second time of the same amplitude the the the first time, Usually, it doesn't work.

所以你总得思考：如果你已经做了充分的准备，并且意识到，现在所处的环境条件很可能与上次成功时完全不同，那就得仔细分析，这些新的环境因素究竟会促成还是阻碍你的成功。

So you always think about If you've done your work and you're trying to think about there's a series of environmental conditions that are probably completely different from the last time you did something that worked, and then just think through what are these new environmental conditions that can make that successful or not.

我对你看到的那些只有一击成名的人难以复制成功感到非常惊讶。

I'm pretty blown away by you see a lot of people that have the one big hit and then it's hard to replicate it.

然后你就会看到极少数人。

Then you see a very, very select few.

我不一定把自己算在这一类里。

I wouldn't necessarily consider myself in this.

他们是极少数似乎更频繁地因自身理念的精准定位而走运的人。

Are a very, very select few that seem to get lucky on their positioning of their ideas more often.

我倾向于认为，他们是通过大量的智慧、努力和深思熟虑的布局，才达到这种境地的。

I tend to think that they've you know, through a lot of guile and work and thoughtful positioning, got to that position.

我们会再多聊聊这个，因为我觉得有两件事对你的持续成功至关重要。

Well, we'll we'll talk about this some more because I I I think a lot of I wanna talk about two things that I think have been really key to your enduring success.

其中之一是纯粹的专注与驱动力，另一件则是对数据的痴迷。

One of which is sheer intensity and drive, and one of which is an obsession with data.

我觉得可以从其中任何一点开始，因为在我看来，这两者都是你能在这一行生存下来的核心原因。

And it seems we could start with either of them because it seems to me they're both so central to why you have actually survived in this business.

我的意思是，这部分似乎是你运气好，最终去了黑石，对吧？你在2008年5月成立了一只信贷对冲基金，就在雷曼破产之前。

I mean, part part of it seems to be mean, I I guess the good the good fortune that you ended up at BlackRock, right, where you you you'd set up this hedge fund in 05/00/2008, right, a credit hedge fund right right before Lehman went under.

而雷曼持有这只基金的股份。

And Lehman had a stake in it.

黑石也持有这只基金的股份。

BlackRock had a stake in it.

所以当债券市场彻底崩盘时，你带着大约42人的团队去了黑石，而那只基金遭受了重创。

So then you go with your team of about 42 when everything goes haywire in the in the bond market and the the fund got clobbered.

你随后加入了黑石。

You go work at at BlackRock.

因此，你在那里获得了海量的数据和顶尖的人才资源。

So so so so you had enormous access to incredible amounts of data and human human intelligence there.

如今，拥有如此庞大的数据资源，究竟如何成为你最核心的优势和关键竞争力？

How has just the fact that you have enormous data resources really been kind of the the central the central advantage, the central edge that you actually have these days?

我的意思是，我认为这全在于——你知道，我当初之所以对加入黑石如此感兴趣，是因为我们当时经历了一段艰难时期，但到了2009年，情况开始好转。

I mean, I I mean, I think it's all about I mean, part of what you know, part of why I was so intrigued to come to BlackRock I mean, we had a tough go, and then, you know, and then things were doing better in o nine.

我之所以对加入黑石如此感兴趣，是因为当时我认为它是金融的中心，而事实证明，它的重要性远超我的预期。

And part of why I was so intrigued by coming to BlackRock is it was, at the time, I thought the epicenter could be the epicenter of finance it turned out to be more so than I certainly would have anticipated.

但风险管理工具、分析系统，甚至像阿拉丁这样的系统，都相当惊人。

But risk management tools, analytics, even if a system called Aladdin, that is pretty incredible.

它让我能够进行压力测试、情景分析，每天查看收益归因，了解哪些方面表现良好，哪些方面出了问题。

It allows me to stress test, scenario analyse, look at return attribution daily, what's going right, what's going wrong.

这些数据非同寻常。

And that data is extraordinary.

你有能力做出一些错误的判断。

Your ability to can make some bad calls.

我确实经常做出错误的判断。

I do make a lot of bad calls.

只要我知道原因——因为我已经做过压力测试，看过情景分析，只要我知道我的下行风险有多大，它会对投资组合的其他部分产生什么影响，相关性如何运作，

As long as I know, because I've stressed it, I've looked at the scenario analysis, as long as I know what's my downside, how will it impact the rest of the portfolio, how does correlation work?

所以如果我在某一件事上判断错了，它会不会影响投资组合的其他部分？或者会不会有其他部分同时遭受损失？

So if I'm wrong on one thing, does it impact the other parts of the portfolio, or will other parts suffer at the same time?

对我来说，这整个就是关键所在。

Like, that to me is like the whole gig.

如果你能，你知道的，如此出色地预测市场或经济走势的话。

Like, if you have, you know, this incredible you know, anticipating anticipating markets or the economy.

所以我完全不理解自上而下的投资方式。

So I'm a I don't understand top down investing at all.

我不，我不，我的意思是，我完全是自下而上的。

I don't I don't I mean, I'm very much bottoms up.

也就是说，我会研究公司。

And meaning like, you know, I study companies.

我喜欢关注调查，我觉得人们太依赖这些调查来理解，人们的态度倾向如何。

Like, I like people follow surveys, I think, way too much to understand, like, how are people leaning?

我认为这些调查的影响被严重高估了。

And I think these surveys are crazy overstated in terms of influence.

但如果我能研究，为什么一家公司要在研发上投入？为什么他们要裁员？为什么他们在扩张？为什么他们的库存增加了？

But if I can study, why is a company spending on R and D or why are they laying off people or why are they growing why are their inventory levels up?

是什么导致了他们的库存水平上升？

What has driven their inventory levels up?

如果你观察一系列公司，突然间你就能明白，为什么经济中的就业开始放缓，或者类似的情况。

And then if you look at it across a series of companies and all of a sudden you can say, okay, now I understand why employment in the economy is starting to slow or what have you.

但我觉得唯一有效的方法就是这个。

But that's the only thing I think works.

我觉得从上往下做投资，我认为是不可持续的，因为你无法理解推动经济或经济某个部门的根本催化剂或诱因。

Like, I think trying to do it from the top down, I just don't think it's durable because you don't understand the underlying catalysts or instigants to drive the economy or a certain sector of the economy.

所以我真的相信，你必须深入了解，比如AI如此令人兴奋的原因就在于它能够大规模地执行这种分析，运行模型和AI来判断：房地产开发商，他们在推动业务时自己提供了多少融资？

So I really believe you gotta get, you know, intent part of why AI is so exciting is the ability to do this at scale and to actually run models and run AI to say, you know, homebuilders, what's happening in home builders around how much have they had to provide in their own financing to drive their business.

如果你能大规模地分析不同领域，而这些行业是分散的。

If you do it over scale and look at different it's fragmented industry.

如果突然间我能通过AI来观察整个行业，那简直太令人兴奋了。

If all of a sudden I can look at the industry through AI, you know, that's pretty darn exciting.

所以我真的相信，你必须从底层开始，逐步向上推进。

So I I really believe in that, that you gotta start from the bottom and work your and work your way up.

而且，把尽可能多的数据融入你的流程中，是关键所在。

And and, you know, assimilating as much data into your process is, is a key to that.

所以你拥有的数据比几乎任何人都要多。

So you you have access to more data than almost anybody.

从某种意义上说，这让你面临的问题比我们大多数人更极端，那就是如何区分信号与噪音，如何找出真正相关的信息。

And in a way, that puts you in a more extreme version of of the, the challenge that most of us face, which is somehow distinguishing signal from noise, somehow figuring out what actually is relevant.

你还会举办那些传奇般的月度电话会议。

And you you do these kind of legendary monthly calls.

对吧？

Right?

我认为有时有上千人会拨入这些电话会议，听你对市场、经济走势等发表见解。

I think over a thousand people sometimes call in for these calls to hear you opine about the markets and the direction of the economy and the like.

我想了解一下，你是如何处理这些海量信息和海量数据的？

And I I wanted to get a sense of what your process is where you're taking this immense amount of information, this immense amount of data.

其他人或许也能接触到部分数据，但你似乎能对其进行分析、提炼和整合，从而形成自己的观点，指引方向，并在此框架内进行交易。

A lot of other people, I guess, have access to some of it, but you're kind of somehow crunching and distilling and synthesizing it so that you can take a view, so that you can kind of point the ship in the right direction and then and then kind of trade within that framework.

这个过程是怎样的？我们能从中学习到什么，以区分真正的新闻和噪音？

What's the process, and what can we learn from that about how to distinguish real news from just noise?

我的意思是，我认为这是投资的关键之一。

So, I mean, I think that's one of the keys to investment.

我见过的一些伟大投资者，其关键能力就在于能够真正地筛选出来。

One of the great investors I've seen is just the ability to actually isolate.

这才是重要的新闻。

That's an important piece of news.

所以唯一的办法可能是——也许这听起来有点尴尬。

So the only way and and maybe it's embarrassing.

这有点过时了。

It's it's somewhat archaic.

比如，我会和我的团队一起头脑风暴，提出一些想法。

Like, look at I brainstorm with my team and we say, I throw out some ideas.

这个怎么样？

What about this?

那这个呢？

What about that?

那这个呢？

What about this?

然后团队开始收集大量数据，制作图表，查看表格等等。

And now the team starts to pull a bunch of the data and put it on graphs and look at tables and what have you.

然后我 literally 在周末花很多时间——这听起来很疯狂，但我在周六做这些月度电话，通常要花整整十个小时，周日也差不多花同样多的时间。

And then I'd literally spend, like, on a weekend this is crazy, but I I spend on Saturday you know, Saturday, I do these monthly calls, I mean, a good ten hours, and then Sunday, probably probably about the same.

然后我会试着仔细查看所有数据，思考，然后你就会有那种顿悟的时刻，也许就像我说的，这种做法有点过时，需要花很长时间去想：为什么美元兑日元会这样波动？

And then I try and literally put a you know, look at all the data and say and then, you know, you get these moments, and maybe it's just, like I say, archaic that, that it takes a while to think of, like, why is dollar yen doing what it's doing?

为什么两年期互换利率会这样变动？

Why are two year swaps doing what they're doing?

交叉货币基差发生了什么？

What's happening on the cross currency basis?

然后突然之间，你就会发现某些东西开始串联起来，比如：我明白了，我真的明白了。

And, like, all of a sudden and then you see, like, some things tend to, like, come together like, I got it, and I and I got it.

我认为这么多人参加这些月度会议的唯一原因是我们试图把所有这些数据整合成一个相对连贯的模式，说明这件事发生了、那件事也发生了。

And I think the only reason why I think so many people dial into these monthlies is, we try and take all this data and put together a somewhat cohesive pattern of of this happening and that's happening and that's happening.

结论应该是X、Y和Z，但这些结论并不总是正确的。

The conclusions should be x, y, and z, which are not always right.

但我们之所以投入大量密集的数据来试图得出一套结论，我只是还没找到其他方法来做这件事。

But, but we've but the idea of you take so much intense data to try and, to try and come up with your set of conclusions, and I just haven't figured out another way to do it.

正如我所说，人工智能正在帮助我们获取更多的信息和数据。

And, you know, like I say, AI is helping us get more of the information and the data.

我与一些交易对手合作，他们帮我处理大量工作，他们有自己的内部系统，或者能接触到研究流。

I work with counterparties who help me with a ton of it, who have, you know, their own internal systems and or see flows of research.

然后他们会帮助我，根据我正在探索的某个研究方向，发送给我一堆信息。

And then they help me and they send over a bunch of information based on, you know, I'm trying to go down a certain stream of investigation.

然后他们会说，我来把这些整理好。

And then, you know, they're like, I'll put it together.

顺便说一句，你真正需要的资料中，有90%以上其实都是噪音，是垃圾。

And by the way, like, 90 something percent of what you really it's like noise is garbage.

嗯，好吧。

And like, okay.

你知道，这种情况发生是因为有人持多头或空头头寸，推动了货币达到某个水平。

You know, this is happening because somebody was long or somebody was short, it's driven the currency to a certain level.

然后你试着想，嗯，这说不通。

And you try and like, okay, that doesn't make any sense.

但所有这些片段似乎都有一条连贯的线索，你知道吗？

But all the you know, these pieces seem to have a cohesive stream to it that you know?

所以，我们，嗯，我倾向于更多地围绕这些因素调整我的仓位。

And so we, you know, we I tend to move my position around more around those.

幸运的是，这些不是每周一次的，不然我都该离婚了。

Thankfully, they're not weekly or I'd be divorced.

但幸运的是，我妻子允许我每个月有一个周末独自闭关。

But the the you know, thankfully, my wife lets me spend one weekend a month socially isolated.

然后，嗯，我就是想把这些东西都拼凑起来。

And they and and then the you know, I'm just trying to put all these things together.

但我发现，这是关键节点，决定了我们如何定位和管理它。

But it I found it's like the critical node to our know, you to how we position and we manage it.

但接着我想，幸运的是，我觉得很多人都觉得这些内容很有趣。

But then I think, you know, thankfully, I think a lot of, you know, a lot of people have found them interesting.

所以，如果你被迫只关注少数几组数据，比如有人告诉你：看。

So if you were actually forced to focus on just a a handful of pieces of data, like, if if if you were told, look.

你只能保留两三个数据点，其他所有信息都不可用。

You can only have two or three pieces of data, and you just abandon everything else, just not available to you.

当你试图判断通胀、利率、债券收益率等未来走势时，如果你必须提炼出对你而言最重要的核心要素，你会关注什么？

When you're trying to figure out the future direction of inflation and and interest rates and bond yields and the like, If you really had to distill it down to the absolute essence of what's most important to you, what do you pay attention to?

对你来说，什么最有价值？

What would be most valuable to you?

哇。

Wow.

这是个好问题。

That's a good question.

那么，我该如何思考这个问题呢？

The, so how do I how do I think through this?

你知道，我会抛开很多调查数据，因为我觉得它们是噪音。

The, you know, I say I would throw out a lot of survey data because I think it's noise.

而且，我不该说所有数据都是噪音。

And oftentimes, I shouldn't say it's all noise.

通常来说，人们的立场是有帮助的。

Like, oftentimes, how people are positioned is helpful.

而且，你知道，在转折点附近，它有时能给你一些方向性的提示，但我发现大多数调查能准确预测九分之三的事件。

And, you know, it gives tends to gives you gives you some directional help at times around inflection points, but I find that most surveys predict nine out of three right events.

如果你告诉我，我只能使用两到三个数据点，我一定会倾向于关注企业活动，阅读大量关于公司动态的资料，以及消费者数据。

If you said to me, I can only use two or three pieces of information or data, I would always on the side of looking at corporate activity and looking, reading too many documents around what's happening with companies and then the consumer data.

我的意思是，美国经济的70%都是消费导向或服务导向的。

I mean, 70% of The US economy is consumption oriented or service oriented.

而今天，对我来说，我总是感到惊讶。

And today, to me, I'm always amazed.

人们总是拿七八十年代经济运行的类似模式来对照现在，但现在的经济要复杂得多，更偏向服务业，技术也更成熟。

People look at the same analogues for how the economy operated in the seventies and eighties, and the economy is much more sophisticated, much more service oriented, much more mature technology oriented.

所以我特别喜欢深入研究消费者服务领域，看看是什么在推动服务业的发展。

And so I really like digging in in terms of consumer service, what's driving the service sector.

这对我来说能提供更好的洞察，我仍然难以相信，人们竟然花这么多时间关注某些制造业活动，要知道，这些早已不是今天驱动经济的主要因素，尤其是在人口老龄化背景下，真正重要的是医疗、教育、服务和技术。

And that, you know, that to me gives me a better like, I still can't believe that people spend so much time on some of the manufacturing activity, you know, which is, you know, like, not not what drives the economy today, particularly in an aging demography, where it's health care and education and service and technology.

我不知道。

I don't know.

我更倾向于关注这些方面，但确实需要依靠扎实、高质量的硬数据。

Those are the things I tend to focus more on, but it is definitely the hard data, really good hard data.

很多时候，大型经济数据发布其实是一团乱麻，它们只会告诉你：‘增长了0.2%。’

And oftentimes, the big economic releases are an aggregated mess because they tell you, oh, it's up 0.2.

但增长0.2%根本说明不了任何问题，因为一个行业在狂飙，另一个行业却在崩溃。

Well, up 0.2 means nothing because you have one sector that's killing another sector that's getting crushed.

这到底能告诉你什么？

What is it telling you?

我觉得这甚至没什么意义。

I don't even think it's that meaningful.

唯一的是，市场会对它做出反应。

The only thing is markets respond to it.

所以我明白了，我们必须尊重你的数据。

So I've learned, we can you have to be respectful of your data.

市场是根据情绪波动的。

Markets move on sentiment.

如果你能了解通胀的真实情况就好了，我们研究过上百万个价格，但市场只关注CPI报告。

And if you could know what's happening on inflation, we've studied the million prices and look at but the markets focus on the CPI report.

如果上涨了0.4、0.3或0.2，那就是市场关注的焦点。

If it's up point four, up point three, or point two, it's like that's what the markets move on.

所以你得有个好日子，但同时也要认真思考，市场是否会反应于那些不够稳健的消息。

So you gotta have the good day, but then be really, you know, thoughtful about if the markets are gonna react to, you know, some pieces of news that are, you know, less robust.

在你的投资过程中，你也必须考虑这一点。

You also have to consider that in your investment investment process.

是的。

Yeah.

我记得你曾经说过，市场完全取决于数据的转折点。

I I I remember hearing you say at one point, markets are are all about turns in the data.

那是我一度听到的观点，看似显而易见，但我之前从未真正思考过，因为我想我所关注的投资者大多是长期投资者。

And it was one of those things that's sort of so obvious and yet that I hadn't really thought about that that because I guess so many of the investors that I focus on on the whole are these much more long term investors.

这其实回到了本·格雷厄姆那句著名的话：短期内，市场是一个投票机；长期内，它是一台称重机。

And in a way, it goes back to the famous Ben Graham statement where he said in the in the in the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run, it's a weighing machine.

因此，我所关注的大多数投资者，像芒格和巴菲特这类人，他们的前提是希望市场成为他们的工具。

And so most of the investors I look at, sort of Munger Buffett types, they're working on the basis that they want the market to be their servant.

他们利用短期波动，来布局这些长期交易。

And so they're taking these very long they're they're taking advantage of the short term volatility to place these kind of long term trades.

而你，某种程度上，做的恰恰是格雷厄姆所说的市场作为投票机的那一部分。

You in a way is often doing something very different, right, where you're you're playing the part of Graham's statement about the market being a voting machine.

我想说几点。

So I'd say a couple of things.

首先，我并不喜欢牛市。

First of all, I don't really like bull markets.

你知道吗？

You know?

我在牛市里会变得烦躁，因为我觉得这种时候机会集——对我来说——拉平了所有人的起跑线。

I'm like, I get grumpy in bull markets because I think the opportunity set like, know, that to me levels the playing field.

每个人都追着趋势跑。

Like, everybody jumps on the trend.

我们都一起买入，这一点在一些新发行市场中很明显，无论是IPO市场、股票市场，还是信贷市场的新发行市场。

Like, we're all buying together, and you see this in some of the new issue markets, whether it's the IPO market, the equity market, or the new issue market in credit.

大家都喜欢手拉手，享受一起买入时的温暖感觉，共识推动着市场上涨。

Everybody likes to hold hands, get a warm feeling around, we're all buying together, it all feels good and the consensus move under.

我觉得这极其没有成就感。

Find that incredibly unfulfilling.

而且我认为这赚不了多少钱，因为所有人都在同一时间做同样的事，很可能在错误的时间追高。

And I'm perfectly I don't think there's a lot of money in it because everybody is doing the same thing at the same time and probably getting long at the wrong time.

我实际上觉得那些碎片化、脱节的市场，尤其是熊市，要有趣得多，因为那里能产生更多的回报。你知道，价格下跌的速度往往比上涨快五倍。

I actually find fragmented, dislocated markets and often those which are bear markets are much more interesting and where there's much more return to be generated because, you know, you are you know, prices people I I always say this market's going to have five times faster than they go up.

市场确实是一步步上涨的，人们会获利了结。

It's really the case that markets iterate higher, people take profits.

当市场下跌时，人们不喜欢亏钱。

When they go down, people don't like to lose money.

而真正的机会就在这里。

And that's where there's real opportunity.

我认为这才是更有趣的地方，你可以运用你的研究和数据分析，去发现天啊，某样东西被过度反应了。

And that's where I think it becomes much more interesting, where you can use your research user analytics and try and figure out, gosh, something is overdone.

对我来说，这比只是随大流要有趣得多。

And that to me is a whole lot more interesting than just playing along.

顺便说一下，有时候你不得不这么做，有时候共识在一段时间内可能是对的，你就得跟着走。

By the way, sometimes you got to do this, sometimes you got the consensus can be right for a period of time, you just got to ride alongside of it.

但我发现，这远不如那些脱节、混乱的市场让人满足，在那些市场里，你可以做自己的研究，真正去识别、猜测哪里藏着真正的价值。

But I don't find that nearly as fulfilling as markets that are dislocated, disjointed, where you can do your work and really try and, you know, isolate, guess, some real value here.

我认为，像大卫·泰珀这样的一些人，比如在阿波罗卢宗的那位，简直不可思议。

And I think some of the, you know, some of the people that I that I found that that are, like, know, David Tepper at at, you know, Apple Luzon's like, he's unbelievable.

当市场陷入混乱时，他就开始行动了。

And, like, when markets are broken, like, he goes to work.

我认为，这才是真正赚钱的地方，我觉得这才是真正有意思的地方。

And I think that's, you know, I think that's a very cool way to, you know, that's where I think the real money is.

当你看看你的朋友，比如大卫·泰珀、雷·达利奥、保罗·都铎·琼斯，或者斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒，这些传奇投资者，他们某种程度上更像是投机者或交易员。

When you look at friends of yours like David Tepper or Ray Dalio or Paul Tudor Jones or, I guess, Stanley Druckenmiller, these these legendary investors, often often kind kind of speculators in a way, traders.

他们有什么共同点？

What do they have in common?

我的意思是，这些特质是否在某种程度上让你联想到你自己所看到的东西？

I mean, what's the and and does it in some way remind you of what you see?

我知道你是个狂热的体育迷。

I I know you're a huge sports watcher.

这是否让你联想到那些伟大的运动员？

Does it remind you of what you see in the great athletes in a way?

我的意思是，他们都承担了很大的风险。

So, I mean, taken you know, they all take a lot of risk.

而且，你知道，他们都喜欢在比赛最后时刻掌握球权，用体育比喻来说就是这样。

And they, you know, they all, you know, they all are are, they all like having, you know, maybe to use that sports metaphor, they all like having the ball in their hand at the end of the game.

而且，你知道，他们喜欢做决策者。

And they're, you know, they're pretty you know, they like being the decision maker.

他们喜欢处在转折点上，愿意承担那种风险。

They like being the one who is at the inflection point, like to be the person, you know, willing to take that risk.

我认为这些人必须尝试过，他们在创造阿尔法收益或回报的方式上非常不同。

And I think all of those people have had to try they're very different in terms of how they create alpha or how they create returns.

他们的理念截然不同。

They're very different philosophies.

但我觉得，他们都非同寻常，因为他们喜欢承担风险。

But they're all I think they're all pretty extraordinary in that they like taking risks.

他们喜欢做出决策。

They like being making the decision.

而且他们以非常不同的方式，都是市场的杰出观察者，致力于理解市场动态。

And they and in very different ways, all of those are incredible students of the market and what trying to do.

有些人非常擅长技术分析。

And some are really, really good at technical.

有些人则擅长把握大局，理解当前形势与历史的对比。

Some are really good at big picture, where we are versus history.

有些人擅长处理困境并理解困境，但他们都是市场的杰出观察者，愿意承担风险。

Some are really good at distress and understanding distress, but they're incredible students of the markets, they're willing to take risk.

我的意思是，他们愿意说：好吧，我们得把新闻和噪音区分开来。

I mean, they're willing to say, okay, I'm willing we talk about to separate the news from the noise.

他们理解新闻，知道什么是关键的转折点或市场 regime，我花了很多时间思考 regime，而他们则以各自独特的方式判断：这是 regime 的演变，该行动了。

They understand the news and what's a critical inflection point or the regime, and I spent a lot of time trying to think about regime, and they're really, really good in different ways of saying, okay, this is a regime evolution, Time to time to go.

而且，我认为他们在做这件事上都非常一致。

And, you know, I think they're all pretty consistent around doing that.

这似乎也构成了你流程的核心——识别 regime，判断我们所处的环境类型，然后以与该 regime 相契合的方式进行定位，并在这一框架内交易。

That seems also very central to your process, this this idea of regime identification of of identifying the type of environment we're in and then positioning yourself in a way that's that's sympathetic to that kind of regime and then trading within that framework.

既然这是你方法中如此核心的部分，那么当你审视我们今天所处的位置，无论是六个月还是一年的视角，我们现在在哪里？

Given that that's something that's so central to your approach, when when you look at where we are today, say with a six month view or a one year view, where are we?

你对利率、通胀、债券收益率等有何看法？你的判断是什么？

What do you what's what's your bet in terms of interest rates, inflation, bond yields, the like?

如果你必须简化一下，描绘出当前市场摆动周期中的位置，我们现在处于哪里？

Like, is you know, if you if you had to distill it down to give you a picture of basically where we are in in this sort of the the pendulum swing of markets, where are we now?

你知道，我其实并不认同媒体或昨天电视上经常谈论的那种‘软着陆’或‘硬着陆’的说法。

So, you know, I don't I actually don't think like, you know, know in the media in the in the TV yesterday or other, you know, they talk about a weak soft landing, hard landing.

我认为，一个以服务业为主导的现代经济，通常不会经历那种剧烈的周期性波动。

And I I actually don't think like, a modern economy that is driven by services tends not to go through those epic cycles.

它往往更加稳定。

It tends to be much more stable.

我认为我们现在正处于一个经历了大规模财政和货币刺激的时期。

And I think we're in a period of we went through massive amounts of fiscal monetary stimulus.

因此，从中期来看，经济往往会非常一致地跟随人口结构的变化趋势。

And so what happens is the economy tends to follow the demographic curve with incredible consistency over the intermediate term.

但一旦你积极运用政策，就会偏离曲线，然后你必须重新回到曲线上来。

But then once you use policy aggressively, you come off the curve, but then you gotta get back on the curve.

随着时间推移，你终究会重新回到曲线。

And over time, you're gonna get back on the curve.

我认为我们现在正处于重新回到曲线的过程之中。

And I think we're in the process of getting back on the curve.

我之前提到过，美国经济背负了过多的债务。

And we gotta you know, part of what I talked about is too much debt on The US economy.

这些债务实际上被用来应对疫情，因为疫情对整个系统造成了极其严重的冲击。

So it really was utilized to to get off the curve because the pandemic was so was so brutal for the, for the the system.

但现在我们必须重新回到曲线，包括偿还部分债务，以及为所有这些债务提供资金。

So but now we gotta get back on the curve, including repaying some of the debt, including funding all this debt.

我认为现在发生的情况就是我们正在重新回到曲线。

I think what's happening is we're getting back on the curve.

顺便说一句，别以为消费者已经没有储蓄了。

By the way, don't think it's still have a consumer that's got savings.

在经历了这场大规模的货币和财政刺激之后，你仍然拥有一个合理的财富效应。

You still have a wealth effect that's reasonable on the backside of this epic monetary and fiscal stimulus.

因此，你们在企业资本支出上投入了大量资金用于技术和创新，主要是因为你们现在必须降低成本，因为你们不能再继续降价了。

So you you and and you have corporate CapEx that's spending on technology and innovation largely because you have to bring your costs down now because you can't you can't keep decreasing price anymore.

我认为价格弹性正在回归。

I think price elasticity is coming back in.

我们已经提过价了。

Like, we've we've raised the price.

不能再提价了，因为经济正在放缓。

Can't raise the price again because economy is moderating.

降低成本。

Cut costs.

这意味什么？

What does that mean?

我认为通胀正在放缓。

I think inflation is moderating.

增长将会放缓。

Growth is gonna is coming down.

但我认为会回落到一个合理的水平，顺便说一下，经过如此高名义GDP增长之后，经济仍处于相当不错的状态，足以让企业产生现金流等。

But I think to a reasonable place that and and and by the way, the level of where the economy is after you grow nominal GDP at such high levels, you're still in a pretty darn good economic condition that allows companies to throw off cash flow, etcetera.

所以无论如何，我认为我们正处在从远高于趋势水平回归温和的状态。

So anyway, think we're in this period of moderation from being way above the curve.

我不认为这预示着真正的衰退或深度衰退。

I don't think it augurs for real deprived recession or deep recession.

欧洲部分地区需要谨慎，中国也需要谨慎，但我认为美国经济要好得多；顺便说一句，我认为这两者也都会没问题。

Different in parts of Europe where you got to be a bit careful, China got to be a bit careful, But I think The US economy is much more of a by the way, I think both of those will be fine as well.

但我认为我们正在走向温和，从现在开始，投资策略应该是创造大量收入，因为我们现在拥有一个绝佳的利好——收益率非常高。

But I think we are moderating, and I think the investment paradigm from here is create a lot of income because now we have this incredible blessing of this, you know, our yields are really high.

由于这一点，你可以以非常有吸引力的水平创造收入，然后尝试将这种收入与股票市场相结合，无论是风险投资还是其他领域，它们在未来一段时间内只会表现一般。

And you can create income at, at very attractive levels because of that, and then try and marry that to a to a stock market or, you know, whether that's venture capital or others that, are going to be just okay for a period of time.

所以，多获取收入，然后管理贝塔或股权类投资的回报，因为从现在开始，这些投资的回报将不再那么惊人。

So get a lot of income and then try and manage return in beta or equity like investments for what is less spectacular return from here.

特雷，让我们短暂休息一下，听听今天赞助商的介绍。

Trey Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors.

不，这不是你的错觉。

No, it's not your imagination.

风险和监管正在加剧，客户现在要求提供安全证明才能开展业务。

Risk and regulation are ramping up, and customers now expect proof of security just to do business.

这就是Vanta成为变革者的原因。

That's why Vanta is a game changer.

Vanta自动化了您的合规流程，将合规、风险和客户信任整合到一个由AI驱动的平台上。

Vanta automates your compliance process and brings compliance, risk, and customer trust together on one AI powered platform.

无论您是在准备SOC 2审计，还是在运行企业GRC项目，Vanta都能确保您的安全并推动交易进展。

So whether you're prepping for a SOC two or running an enterprise GRC program, Vanta keeps you secure and keeps your deals moving.

Ramp和Ryder等公司使用Vanta后，审计时间减少了82%。

Companies like Ramp and Ryder spend 82% less time on audits with Vanta.

这不仅仅是更快的合规，更是为增长争取了更多时间。

That's not just faster compliance, it's more time for growth.

我喜欢Vanta让你轻松跟上合规要求，而不会完全打乱你的工作流程。

I love how Vanta makes it easy to stay on top of your compliance without it taking over your entire workflow.

它只是简化了通常远比必要更痛苦的过程。

It just simplifies something that's usually way more painful than it needs to be.

立即前往 vanta.com/billionaires 开始使用。

Get started at vanta.com/billionaires.

那就是 vanta.com/billionaires。

That's vanta.com/billionaires.

开始新事物不仅困难，而且确实有点吓人。

Starting something new isn't just hard, it's honestly kind of terrifying.

我仍然记得在我真正决定做播客之前的那些时刻。

I still remember those moments right before I really committed to podcasting.

半夜躺在床上想：如果没人听怎么办？

Lying awake at night thinking, What if no one listens?

如果这完全失败了怎么办？

What if this completely flops?

或者，如果我只是纯粹在浪费时间呢？

Or what if I'm just straight up wasting my time?

尽管克服这种怀疑并不容易，但迈出这一步最终成了我做过的最好的决定之一。

And even though pushing past that doubt was not easy, making the leap ended up being one of the best decisions I've ever made.

我要说的是，当你有合适的工具相助时，事情会容易很多。

And I'll say this, it helps a lot when you have the right tools on your side.

这就是Shopify发挥作用的地方。

And that's where Shopify comes in.

Shopify是数百万企业的电商平台，占美国电子商务总量的约10%，从家喻户晓的大品牌到刚刚起步的新锐品牌都在使用。

Shopify is the commerce platform behind millions of businesses and about 10% of all e commerce in The US, from massive household names to brands just getting started.

如果你曾经想过，‘如果我不知道怎么建店怎么办？’

If you've ever thought, What if I don't know how to build a store?

Shopify提供数百个精美且即用的模板，完美契合你的品牌风格，让建店变得轻而易举。

Shopify makes it easy with hundreds of beautiful, ready to use templates that actually match your brand.

或者，如果我没有时间做所有事情呢？

Or what if I don't have time to do everything?

Shopify 内置的 AI 工具可以帮助撰写产品描述、标题，甚至优化产品图片。

Shopify's built in AI tools help write product descriptions, headlines, and even enhance your product photos.

是时候用 Shopify 将这些‘如果’变为现实了。

It's time to turn those what ifs into with Shopify today.

今天就前往 shopify.com/wsb 注册，享受每月 1 美元的试用。

Sign up for your $1 per month trial today at shopify.com/wsb.

前往 shopify.com/wsb。

Go to shopify dot com slash wsb.

那就是 shopify.com/wsb。

That's shopify.com/wsb.

亿万富翁投资者通常不会把资金存放在高收益储蓄账户中。

Bill Billion dollar investors don't typically park their cash in high yield savings accounts.

相反，他们常常采用机构投资者常用的被动收入策略——私人信贷。

Instead, they often use one of the premier passive income strategies for institutional investors, private credit.

如今，得益于 Fundrise 收入基金，这种被动收入策略已向所有规模的投资者开放，该基金已吸引超过6亿美元投资，分红率达7.97%。

Now the same passive income strategy is available to investors of all sizes, thanks to the Fundrise Income Fund, which has more than $600,000,000 invested and a 7.97% distribution rate.

随着传统储蓄利率下降，私人信贷在过去几年中成长为一个万亿美元的资产类别也就不足为奇了。

With traditional savings yields falling, it's no wonder private credit has grown to be a trillion dollar asset class in the last few years.

立即访问 fundrise.com/wsb，只需几分钟即可投资 Fundrise 收入基金。

Visit fundrise.com/wsb to invest in the Fundrise Income Fund in just minutes.

该基金在2025年的总回报率为8%，自成立以来的平均年总回报率为7.8%。

The fund's total return in 2025 was 8% and the average annual total return since inception is 7.8%.

过往业绩不预示未来表现，截至2025年1月23日的当前分配率。

Past performance does not guarantee future results, current distribution rate as of twelvethirty onetwenty twenty five.

投资前请仔细阅读投资材料，包括投资目标、风险、费用和开支。

Carefully consider the investment material before investing, including objectives, risks, charges, and expenses.

更多相关信息请参阅 fundrise.com/income 上的收入基金招募说明书。

This and other information can be found in the income funds prospectus at fundrise.com/income.

这是一则付费广告。

This is a paid advertisement.

好的。

Alright.

回到节目上来。

Back to the show.

如果你是个普通投资者，对债券不太兴奋，但你知道2022年债券大跌之后，市场环境正在发生一些变化，机会也多了起来。

If you're a regular investor and you you you're not, like, hugely excited by bonds, but you're aware that after they got crushed in 2022, there's the environment is sort of changing a bit and there's a little more opportunity there.

我的意思是，你是黑石内部资产配置方面的专家。

I mean, you're an expert on asset allocation within BlackRock.

如果我们有一个多元化投资组合，想降低风险并获得可观的收益，该如何利用这些机会呢？

How should we be thinking about taking advantage of the opportunities if, say, we have a diversified portfolio and and we wanna reduce risk and and get some generous yield?

比如说，我们想在不承担巨大风险的情况下，从债券中获得6%到7%的收益。

Say, we wanna make six or 7% off bonds without crazy risk.

你有什么简单的方法，不需要成为债券专家就能做到这一点？

What do you what's the simple way to do it without needing to be a bond expert?

我的意思是，现在有各种ETF和共同基金，它们会研究不同投资风格之类的，能帮你实现6.5%到7%的收益。

I mean, I think today, I mean, a, there there's ETFs, there's mutual funds that are, you know, studying people's style or what have you that can get you six and a half, seven.

而且，如果利率下降，可能收益会降到6%、5.5%或6%。

And, you know, it's you know, if rates come down, maybe the maybe that is six, five and a half, six.

但我觉得我们还有一些时间。

But I think we have some time.

我认为央行们仍然会维持利率。

I think the central banks, you know, still keep rates.

他们希望确保遏制通胀。

They wanna make sure they put a stake in inflation.

不过，顺便说一句，国债是有效的。

But, boy, you know, by the way, treasuries work.

你知道，像高质量资产、机构抵押贷款、投资级信贷这些东西，有一些ETF和基金可以帮你实现。

You know, things like high quality assets, agency mortgages, investment grade credit, and there's some ETFs, there's some funds that get you that.

这真是一个难得的时机，你居然能买到高质量资产并获得可观的收益。

And you don't I mean, this is one of these unique points in time where, gosh, you can buy high quality assets and clip a lot of yield.

但这并不意味着其他时候你非得用新兴市场。

And so it doesn't mean other points of time you gotta use, like, the emerging markets.

你是想买巴西的债券，还是阿根廷的？

Do you wanna buy Brazil versus Argentina?

这变得非常复杂。

That gets really complex.

你想买那种复杂的商业抵押贷款证券吗？

Do you wanna buy, you know, you know, tranche, complex commercial mortgage security?

很难。

Hard.

很难操作。

Hard to do.

有一些基金我认为做得不错。

There's some funds that that I think do it well.

希望我们有一些在这方面表现良好的基金。

Hopefully, we have we have some of those that do that do well at it.

但除此之外，如今的环境是，哇，国债相当有吸引力。

And they, but otherwise, today, we're in an environment like, gosh, treasury's pretty attractive.

抵押贷款是投资级的。

Mortgage is investment grade.