RWH040：与劳拉·格里茨共赴全球

如果你做国际股票，我可以告诉你，对于任何考虑成为分析师或投资组合经理的年轻人来说，你的工作没有明确的开始和结束，因为总有一个市场在某个地方开着。

If you're doing international equities, I can tell you, for any young person thinking about becoming an analyst or portfolio manager, I mean, there is sort of no, you know, end and beginning to your day because some market is always open somewhere.

但对我们这些从事国际业务、并承受长时间工作的人来说，我们真的非常热爱了解不同的文化、地域、股票，以及与不同的人交流。

But, I mean, most of us who do international and, you know, with the long hours of international also just absolutely love, you know, learning about different cultures and places and stocks and talking to different people.

这带来了一种不同的回报。

There's a different level of reward, you know.

你通过在这些独特市场中工作所获得的知识，来补偿你投入的时间。

You're compensated for the hours worked by the knowledge that you gain from doing these unique markets.

是的，我想我之前跟你说过，或者提到过，当我离开并决定创业时，我的目标是创造一个榜样，或在行业中开辟一条新路。

Yes, that was I think I told you or mentioned this to you, but when I left and decided to start, it was with a greater purpose of trying to do something to create a role model or strike out in the industry.

这绝对不是为了金钱，因为创业——我的一个朋友开玩笑说，我们把创业称为‘非营利’。

It certainly wasn't for monetary reasons because it's it's you know, starting a business and one of my friends jokes, who did a startup company, we called startup not for profit.

所以，要达到能再次赚大钱的规模，是非常非常困难的。

So it's very, very difficult to get to the level of scale where you're making a lot of money again.

我从未打算再赚到在其他公司工作时那样的收入。

It was never my intention to earn the kind of money I made working for other companies.

就是要尝试做一些改变我们行业的事情。

Was about trying to do something to change our industry.

是的，我离开Wasatch时看到的情况，和我刚入行时看到的一模一样。

Yeah, what I saw when I left Wasatch was exactly what I saw when I started in the beginning.

行业中剩下的女性人数实际上减少了，我认为从事实际研究的女性数量比我还刚入行时还少，现在在美国世纪资本，女性员工我能用一只手数出来，再加一根手指就差不多了。

Actual number of females who were left in the industry it was actually, I think the number of females in actual research had gone down So from when I started, and I can count on one hand, maybe add a finger, how many people are at American Century, you know, who were female.

真的吗？

So- Really?

是的。

Yes.

所以，当时有一位女性是我的榜样。

So I mean, there was one woman who was a role model for me.

她和我有相似的职业路径，但在四十多岁时就辞职了。

She actually came up in a similar way to me and she quit in her forties.

她只是自己开创了一番事业。

She just set it up.

让我们稍作休息，听听今天赞助商的介绍。

Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors.

好的。

All right.

我想让你们想象一下，在夏季高峰期的奥斯陆度过三天。

I want you guys to imagine spending three days in Oslo at the height of the summer.

你有漫长的白昼、绝佳的美食、漂浮在奥斯陆峡湾上的桑拿房，而且你每一次交谈的对象，都是真正塑造未来的人。

You got long days of daylight, incredible food, floating saunas on the Oslo Fjord, and every conversation you have is with people who are actually shaping the future.

这就是奥斯陆自由论坛。

That's what the Oslo Freedom Forum is.

从2026年6月1日到6月23日，奥斯陆自由论坛将迎来它的第十八个年头，汇聚来自世界各地的活动家、技术专家、记者、投资者和建设者。

From June 1 through the third twenty twenty six, the Oslo Freedom Forum is entering its eighteenth year bringing together activists, technologists, journalists, investors, and builders from all over the world.

其中许多人正活跃在历史的最前沿。

Many of them operating on the front lines of history.

在这里，你可以亲耳听到人们如何用比特币应对货币崩溃，如何用人工智能揭露人权侵害，以及在审查和威权压力下构建技术的故事。

This is where you hear firsthand stories from people using Bitcoin to survive currency collapse, using AI to expose human rights abuses, and building technology under censorship and authoritarian pressures.

这些不是抽象的概念。

These aren't abstract ideas.

这些是现实中的人们正在使用的工具。

These are tools real people are using right now.

你会和大约2000位非凡的人物同处一室——持不同政见者、创始人、慈善家、政策制定者，这些是你不仅会聆听、还会与之共进晚餐的人。

You'll be in the room with about 2,000 extraordinary individuals, dissidents, founders, philanthropists, policymakers, the kind of people you don't just listen to but end up having dinner with.

在三天里，你将体验到震撼人心的主舞台演讲、关于自由科技与金融主权的动手工作坊、沉浸式艺术装置，以及远超会议结束时间的深入对话。

Over three days, you'll experience powerful main stage talks, hands on workshops on freedom tech and financial sovereignty, immersive art installations, and conversations that continue long after the session's end.

这一切都将在六月的奥斯陆发生。

And it's all happening in Oslo in June.

如果这听起来像是你感兴趣的场合，那你运气不错，因为你能够亲自到场参加。

If this sounds like your kind of room, well, you're in luck because you can attend in person.

标准票和赞助者票已在oslofreedomforum.com开放购买，赞助者票提供深度参与、私人活动以及与演讲者的小范围交流时间。

Standard and patron passes are available at oslofreedomforum.com with patron passes offering deep access, private events, and small group time with the speakers.

奥斯陆自由论坛不仅仅是一场会议。

The Oslo Freedom Forum isn't just a conference.

这是一个理念与现实交汇的地方，未来正由亲历者们亲手构建。

It's a place where ideas meet reality and where the future is being built by people living it.

我们很多人已经在退休账户之外购买了比特币，零零散散地积累一些比特币。

A lot of us have been buying Bitcoin outside of our retirement accounts, stacking some Bitcoin here and there.

但我们的大部分财富，仍然躺在传统的401(k)或IRA账户里，锁在那些我们不再真正相信的股票、债券和基金中。

But most of our wealth, it's still sitting in traditional four zero one k's or IRA's locked in the stocks, bonds, and funds we don't really believe in anymore.

但大多数人不知道的是。

But here's what most people don't know.

你可以将这笔钱投资到一个持有比特币的税收优惠退休账户中。

You can invest that money into a tax advantage retirement account that holds Bitcoin.

这被称为比特币IRA。

It's called a Bitcoin IRA.

如果你操作得当，你不是通过某个ETF来换取对比特币的间接敞口，而是将真正的比特币存放在一个由你掌控密钥的保险库中。

And if you do it right, you're not just swapping stocks for Bitcoin exposure through some ETF, you're holding real Bitcoin inside a vault where you hold the keys.

这就是Unchained比特币IRA与众不同的地方。

That's where Unchained Bitcoin IRA is built different.

这是真正的多重签名，真正的链上比特币，由你掌控。

It's real multisig, real Bitcoin on chain in your control.

这意味著什么？

Here's what that means.

你享有传统罗斯IRA或SEP IRA的所有税务优惠，但并没有放弃主权。

You get all the tax advantages of a traditional Roth or SEP IRA, but you're not giving up sovereignty.

你持有两个密钥，Unchained持有其中一个。

You hold two keys, Unchained holds one.

没有单一故障点。

There's no single point of failure.

你甚至只需点击几下，就可以将旧的401(k)转入比特币IRA。

You can even roll over your old four zero one k into a Bitcoin IRA with just a few clicks.

当需要传承时，内置了继承协议。

And when it's time to pass it all on, there's a built in inheritance protocol.

你的家人将获得密钥。

Your family gets keys.

没有烦恼。

No headaches.

Unchained 自2016年以来一直在做这件事。

Unchained been doing this since 2016.

他们为超过12,000名客户保障了超过120亿美元的比特币。

They secured over 12,000,000,000 in Bitcoin for more than 12,000 clients.

这大约占了现存比特币的二百分之一。

It's about one out of every 200 Bitcoin in existence.

所以，如果你认真打算长期持有比特币，并希望以正确的方式——主权、安全、税务优惠——在退休账户中持有，前往 unchained.com/preston 并在结账时使用代码 Preston 10，即可享受首次购买10%的折扣。

So if you're serious about holding Bitcoin for the long run and you wanna do it inside a retirement account the right way, sovereign, secure, tax advantaged, Go to unchained.com/preston and use code Preston 10 at checkout to get 10% off your first purchase.

别再拖延了。

Don't wait.

未来由你掌控。

The future is yours to hold.

如果你经营企业，最近可能也产生过同样的想法。

If you run a business, you've probably had the same thought lately.

我们如何让人工智能在现实世界中发挥作用？

How do we make AI useful in the real world?

因为潜在收益巨大，但靠猜测进入这个领域风险很高。

Because the upside is huge, but guessing your way into it is a risky move.

通过甲骨文的NetSuite，您今天就能让人工智能发挥作用。

With NetSuite by Oracle, you can put AI to work today.

NetSuite是超过43,000家企业信赖的头号AI云ERP系统。

NetSuite is the number one AI cloud ERP trusted by over 43,000 businesses.

它将您的财务、库存、电商、人力资源和客户关系管理整合到一个统一的系统中。

It pulls your financials, inventory, commerce, HR, and CRM into one unified system.

而这种互联互通的数据，正是让您的AI变得更智能的关键。

And that connected data is what makes your AI smarter.

它能够自动化日常任务，提供可操作的洞察，帮助您降低成本，同时自信地做出快速的AI驱动决策。

It can automate routine work, surface actionable insights, and help you cut costs while making fast AI powered decisions with confidence.

现在，借助NetSuite AI连接器，您可以使用自己选择的人工智能，直接连接到您的真实业务数据。

And now with the NetSuite AI Connector, you can use the AI of your choice to connect directly to your real business data.

这并不是什么附加功能，而是内置在支撑您业务的系统中的AI。

This isn't some add on, it's AI built into the system that runs your business.

无论您的公司年收入达到数百万甚至数亿美元，NetSuite都能帮助您保持领先。

And whether your company does millions or even hundreds of millions, NetSuite helps you stay ahead.

如果您年收入至少达到七位数，请免费获取他们的商业指南《揭开AI的神秘面纱》，访问 netsuite.com/study。

If your revenues are at least in the 7 figures, get their free business guide, Demystifying AI at netsuite.com/study.

这份指南免费提供给您，访问 @netsuite.comslashstudy。

The guide is free to you @netsuite.comslashstudy.

netsuite.com/study。

Netsuite.com/study.

好的。

Alright.

回到节目。

Back to the show.

我记得你曾经对我说过，我这里还保留着那句话，因为昨晚我翻看了过去采访的所有笔记。

I remember you once saying to me that actually, I have the I have the quote here because I was looking at through all my notes from our past interviews last night.

这真的让我深受触动。

And this really struck me.

你谈到商业中的Alpha男性时，说认识的大多数女性到了四十岁就离开了这个行业。

You're talking about alpha males in the business, and you said most of the women I know in the business have quit in their forties.

她们对此感到厌倦了。

They got tired of it.

部分原因在于，被那些与你性格不合的人包围着，会让人精疲力尽。

Part of it is that it's draining to be surrounded by personalities that don't fit yours.

那种线性思维、好斗张扬的性格，总想在还没取得足以登上杂志封面的成功之前，就先把自己推到聚光灯下。

This linear thinking, chest beating personality, the desire to be on the cover of a magazine before doing anything that generates the success that warrants that.

你能谈谈这种感觉吗？就像你所说的，有那么多人想打扮得像马克·莫比乌斯一样，拍着胸脯炫耀，但实际上远没有马克·莫比乌斯那么成功？

Can you talk about that, that sense that there as as you put it, there were all of these people who wanted to dress like Mark Mobius and thump their chest, but weren't actually as successful as Mark Mobius?

你知道吗，也许生活让我逐渐学会了掌控自己的命运。

You know, maybe life has gotten a little kinda controlling my own destiny around her.

也许这几年我的境况有所改善，因为在过去五六年里，我开始选择那些真正优秀的伴侣，他们属于另一种类型的男性。

Maybe it's gotten a little better for me because I've sought out sort of men who are great partners in the last at least five or six years of my career as a different type of male.

我的生活中其实也有积极的男性。

I mean, we didn't talk about the positive males in my life.

这些年来，我也遇到过一些最好的男性导师和支持者，他们一直支持推动行业更多元化。

I have had some of the best male mentors and men who have supported this push for more diversity in the industry through the years as well.

所以我总是说，你知道，我并不只是说那些负面的。

So I always say, you know, I don't yeah.

我们俩都是《马丁之路》的忠实粉丝。

Know we're both big fans of Martin's Way.

所以，那本小书帮我省了不少钱。

So, you know, the little book is saved money.

他有那种

He has that

哦，杰森·茨威格。

Oh, Jason Zweig.

是的。

Yeah.

是的

Yeah.

杰森

Jason.

杰森

Jason.

杰森

Jason.

我不知道为什么

I don't know why

你这么说。

you said that.

谢谢

Thank you

非常感谢

so much.

但没错，那本《安全理财小书》。

But, yeah, the little book of safe money.

对吧？

Right?

我非常推崇那本书。

I'm a huge fan of that book.

但书中有一章颇具挑衅性地命名为‘性’。

But there's that great chapter provocatively titled sex.

对吧？

Right?

是的。

Yeah.

关于行业中的性别偏见。

On gender perries in the industry.

我认为，你知道的，我作为理财经理最出色的几年，都是当我与异性搭档的时候。

And I think, you know, some of my best years as a money manager have been when I have been paired, male and female paired together.

我认为在资产管理中，这种搭配非常出色。

I think that's just a great pairing in money management.

再说，当你谈到传统刻板印象中的女性特质时，这其实牵涉到我们行业中的天性与后天培养问题，对吧？

Again, I think a lot of them When you talk about the traditional stereotypical female personality, well, this gets all into nature and nurture in our industry, right?

但很多优秀的价值投资者都具备这些特征，类似于你所描述的女性投资者的特点。

But, you know, a lot of the great value investors have these characteristics that are similar to, you know, how you describe a female investor.

既要管理风险，也要追求回报。

Manage for risk as well as returns.

我最敬佩的几位导师都是这些杰出的男性价值投资者。

A lot of my greatest influencers are these great male value investors.

所以，总之，我觉得这些都很有意思。

So anyway, think that's all interesting.

我在这里说得有点混乱，但我经常思考我们行业中天性与后天培养的差异。

And I'm confusing what I'm saying here, but I think a lot about nature versus nurture in our industry.

我认为许多投资者的行为模式都源于他们早期或投资生涯奠基阶段的经历。

I think a lot of investors are a product of their early years or their foundational years when they're investing.

我开始投资时，科技泡沫正在膨胀。

I started investing, the tech bubble was starting to blow up.

所以我天生就厌恶风险。

So I'm naturally risk averse.

当然，我也被培养得更加厌恶风险。

Then, of course, I was nurtured to be risk averse as well.

但回顾过去十二年，你的投资组合贝塔值越高，承担的风险越大，杠杆越多，回报就越好。

But then I look over the last twelve years, when it's been sort of the higher the beta of your portfolio, the more you've returned, the more risk you've taken, the more leverage you've had, the better your returns.

我的意思是，你这一代投资者，无论男女，都被培养得敢于承担风险。

I mean, I think you have a whole generation of investors, male and female, who've been nurtured to take risk.

是的。

Yeah.

我认为你深受成长环境中市场影响的观点非常有力，因为我和你一样，真正开始关注华尔街是在九十年代末。

I I think that that that idea that you're very much shaped by the market in which you grow up is really powerful because I I, like you, I I started covering Wall Street, I guess, really in the late nineties.

我从1997、1998、1999年到2000年开始认真投入。

I got serious about '97, '98, '99, 2000.

于是我一直在观察这种疯狂的行为，以及它最终崩盘的过程。

And so I was watching the craziness, the crazy behavior, and then it coming undone.

我当时和像马丁·惠特曼这样的人一起投资，你也曾与他们合作。

And I was invested with people like Marty Whitman, you'd invested with.

我认为那是你赚到的第一笔基金。

I think that was the first fund you ever you ever earned.

这些真正坚定的价值派幸存者，他们天生具备韧性。

So these really hardcore deep value survivors, people who were built for resilience.

因此，当我们看到一切分崩离析时，这在某种程度上印证了我们那种倾向于规避风险、害怕事物崩溃的性格倾向。

And so then when we saw everything fall apart, it kind of confirmed for us in some way this probably temperamental tendency to be risk averse, to be afraid of things falling apart.

我知道。

I know.

我觉得你说得对。

I think that's right.

所以，想想看，如今投资界多么被一种冒险心态所主导，仅仅是因为——我认为，低利率或宽松资金的时期持续得太久了。

So, I mean, just think about how much the how much sort of a risk mentality is dominating investing right now because just of how I mean, I'm a believer that a period of pre money or easy money went far too long.

因此，我认为这种冒险文化已经根深蒂固，而在霍华德·马克斯所描述的这种利率可能长期维持高位的新环境中，这种文化可能很危险。

And so I think it's ingrained this culture of risk taking that might be dangerous in a world where, again, Howard Marks' sea change where rates may be higher for longer.

我的意思是，在这种环境下，你必须彻底转变你的思维——再说一次，我会用达利奥的话来说，现金是垃圾，但我对本·格雷厄姆的理念深信不疑。

Mean, you're having to rotate your mentality dramatically in this environment from one well, again, I'll use Dalio here, cash is trash, which I am a diehard believer in of Ben Graham.

对我来说，现金从来就不是垃圾。

Cash is never trash to me.

现金所具有的选择权价值非常重要，这种价值是韧性的关键所在，因此现金至关重要。

There is an optionality value of that cash that is very important for sort of a resilience factor in that cash is important.

但我的意思是，过去十二年我们一直处在现金是垃圾的环境中。

But I mean, that was the environment we've been in for twelve years where cash is trash.

所以现在，当你能从三十年期或十年期国债获得5%的收益时，现金就不再是垃圾了。

So now I think when you're getting 5% on a thirty year or ten year treasury, cash is no longer trash.

我认为，关于债务或杠杆的思维模式必须改变。

I think the sort of mentality of debt or leverage has to change.

你觉得正在发生某种转变吗？

And you you think there's some kind of shift going on.

我的意思是，像霍华德·马克斯这样你一直敬仰、我也极其敬仰并 extensively 撰写过的人，总是谈到这种钟摆效应——当你开始觉得某种方式有效时，另一种方式就开始起作用了。

I mean, as as Howard Marks, who you've always revered and who I I I revere and have written about extensively, always talks about this kind of pendulum effect where just when you start thinking one thing works, the other the other thing starts to work.

因此，你和你的同事布莱克·克莱顿合写了一篇论文，他是你们公司Rendure的联席首席投资官兼投资经理，发表了一篇白皮书，讨论自2010年以来这场完美风暴之后，新兴市场有多么不受欢迎。

And so you wrote a paper with your colleague Blake Clayton, who's the co CIO and a portfolio manager at your firm, Rendure, a white paper saying talking about how deeply out of fashion emerging markets have been after this kind of perfect storm since 2010.

你强烈认为，未来几年这种状况很可能会发生转变。

And you have this strong sense that that it's very likely to shift over the coming years.

你能谈谈为什么在几乎所有人都决定不再投资新兴市场的时候，它们仍然值得投资吗？

Can you talk about that, what the case is for emerging markets at a time when pretty much everyone has decided, don't wanna do this anymore.

我的意思是，就像让·玛丽·埃韦亚德等人在上世纪九十年代末因坚持国际价值投资而遭受惩罚一样，现在人们也失去了兴趣。

I don't you know, they've lost interest in the same way that people like Jean Marie, Eveyard were were penalized in the late nineties for being international value investors.

我的意思是，美元最近简直太强势了，正如那句名言所说——‘美元是我们的货币，却是你们的问题’，它已经压垮了全球市场。

Well, I mean, the dollar has just literate I mean, that quote, right, the dollar is our currency and your problem has just squashed everything around the world.

所以，我认为，如果这种情况逆转，你将面临两大驱动力，不仅对新兴市场，对所有国际股票都是如此：一方面，全球货币普遍疲软，另一方面，估值相对低廉。

So, I mean, I think your chase is, if that ever reverses, you have two drivers of really not just emerging markets, any international stock right now because you have weak currencies around the world and then you have relatively cheap valuations.

因此，即使在利率更高的环境下，估值也已经大幅下降。

So even in a world of higher interest rates, valuations have come down.

我认为，当我们刚开始时，我确实觉得美国大盘股相当有吸引力。

I think you have When we started, Ranger, I thought large cap US stocks were actually quite attractive.

我最初是一名全球大盘股分析师，那时大盘股很受欢迎，我非常清楚微软正好处于质量、价值和动量的完美交汇点，因为美联储通过很长一段时间维持了动量周期。

I mean, I started as a large cap global stock analyst in a period when big caps were in favor, I was very aware that Microsoft looked like it was like the perfect intersection of quality and value and momentum because the Fed kept the momentum cycle going through a very long period of time.

你确实有这些因素，但我认为今天的世界不再像以前那样完美了。

You had that, but I don't think that world looks quite as perfect today.

质量还在，这些大盘股的动量也还在，但价值感不如以前那么强了，而国际新兴市场股票——至少那些高质量的——反而具备了价值。

The quality is there, the momentum in these big caps is there, and the value isn't there as much as it used to be, and the value is there in international emerging market stocks, at least in the high quality ones.

所以，我认为总有一天，美元的走势会成为催化剂，而这些股票本身就具有价值。

So at some point, I'd like to think that of the dollars is the catalyst, and these stocks have value.

在你和布莱克·克莱顿合写的那篇论文中，我对你们引用的关于周期变化的统计数据印象深刻。

In that paper that you wrote with Blake Clayton, I was very struck by some of the statistics you used about the cycles that have occurred.

你们提到，从2010年到2022年，标普500指数上涨了355%，而MSCI新兴市场指数仅上涨了26%。

And and so you wrote that from 2010 to '22, the S and P rose 355%, whereas the MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose 26%.

我的意思是，这种表现落后简直令人震惊。

So, I I mean, just an astonishing underperformance.

但你指出，过去曾有过截然不同的时期，这一点我在我的书中经常提到。

But then you pointed out that there were these previous periods that were very different, which is something that that I write about a lot in my book.

也就是本·格雷厄姆所说的‘先来的将变成最后的，最后的将变成先来的’这种理念。

The, you know, the the sort of Ben Graham idea of the first shall be last and the last shall be first.

对吧？

Right?

因此，在1999年至2010年期间，随着金砖国家的崛起，新兴市场表现优于美国。

So so emerging markets outperformed from 1999 to 2010 with the rise of the BRICS.

再之前，从1994年到1999年，美国市场表现更优。

And then before that, from 1994 to 1999, The US outperformed.

再往前，从1989年到1994年，柏林墙于1989年倒塌后，新兴市场表现更优。

And before that, from 1989 to 1994, after the Berlin Wall fell in 1989, emerging markets outperformed.

因此，我们似乎总在经历这样的周期：人们深信美国和大盘股将永远持续跑赢。

So there's this sense that we go through these cycles where it's like holy writ that The US and large cap stocks must outperform forever.

我认为投资者常常忘记了这一点。

And I think investors forget this.

我的意思是，我们还没太谈到的一点是，如今对新兴市场的配置已经降到个位数了，因为回到这一代投资者，确实有一大批投资者只见过美国股市上涨，尤其是美国少数几只股票的上涨。

I mean, I think one thing we didn't talk about too is I think allocations are down in the single digits now to emerging markets, because going back to this generation of investors again, mean, there's a very large generation of investors who have only seen The US go up, and particularly a few stocks in The US go up.

我认为这也是我们所处的宽松货币时期的产物。

Think that's also the product of the easy money period we've been in.

我的意思是，资金有利于规模化。

I mean, money benefits scale.

它有利于最大的公司和最大的国家。

It benefits the biggest companies and the biggest countries.

我们在文章里没写过这个。

We didn't write about this in the article.

那是另外一回事。

Was separate.

我们有时会发布白皮书，因为觉得人们的注意力持续时间已经不够了，然后我们就把白皮书叫做白皮书。

Sometimes we do white sheets because we don't think the the attention spans are there anymore, and then we call white sheets a white paper.

五份白皮书等于一份白皮书。

Five white sheets equal a white paper.

但另一方面，如果你真的去实地看看，就会觉得这简直难以置信，想真正深入现场并不容易。

But there's also, like, it's it's unbelievable if you look at, like it's hard to, like, you know, wanna be boots on the ground.

我个人非常喜欢深入实地，但你看看，世界上其实只有一个强大的影响力来源。

I love being boots on the ground personally, but you look, you know, there has been one heavy influencer in the world.

我还是要再提一下霍华德·马克斯，他在《海链》中谈到全球央行在投资领域所拥有的主导性影响。

And again, I'm gonna again, we keep going back to Howard Marks, but in Seachains, he just talks about the dominance of the global central banks in terms of its influence on investing.

我认为这正是他们对利率环境的掌控，以及由此带来的财富效应的积累与消退，将深刻影响股票的表现。

I think that is just their control, this control of the interest rate environment and the consequence of building of the wealth effect and then the unraveling of the wealth effect is going to heavily influence how stocks do.

但我们看到这种影响如何传导到国际市场或新兴市场，就是如果利率下降，美国首先会感受到：利率一降，股市就涨，消费者口袋里多了点钱，就开始消费。

But how we see it percolate in international or emerging markets is if interest rates come down and The US can see the first thing, if interest rates go down, stocks go up, the consumer starts to get a little extra money in their pocket and they go out and spend.

然后就业市场也会好转。

Then the job market gets better.

这其实就是财富效应的逐步积累。

It's just this building wealth effect.

但这种效应对最大的那些国家尤其有利。

But that was highly beneficial to the biggest of big countries.

这对韩国和台湾非常有利，因为它们生产了美国消费者所消费的所有芯片和半导体芯片以及汽车。

Was beneficial to Korea and Taiwan who make everything that The US consumer consumes in the form of chips, semiconductor chips and cars.

它们可以说是为美国消费者服务的工厂。

Are the factory, I think, for The US consumer.

而中国也从中受益巨大，得益于中国的规模和绝对体量。

And then it benefited China to a great degree because of scale, the scale of China, the absolute size of China.

这些非常复杂的事情其实可以简化为一个简单的因果关系。

These really kind of complicated things can be boiled down into kind of one simple cause and effect.

这就是我们一直以来所处的世界。

That's the world we've kind of been in.

所以，这些市场要么占优势，要么不占优势。

So it's either those markets are in favour or they're not.

要么占优势，要么不占优势。

Then they're in favour or they're not.

我认为，作为一个投资者，现在是个有点乏味的时期，因为叙事或利率环境主导了基本面。

It's sort of an uninteresting time as an investor, I think, where sort of narrative dominates or interest rate environment dominates fundamentals.

是的

Yeah.

值得提醒我们的听众这个永恒的真理：钟摆总会摆动，但你永远无法预知它何时发生。

It's worth it's worth just reminding our listeners of this sort of eternal truth that the pendulum swings, but you just never know when it will.

我正在查看克利福德·阿斯内斯的一项统计数据，他说美国投资者仅有六分之一的股票配置在海外市场。

And so I I was looking at this statistic from Clifford Asness who said that US investors have only one sixth of their equity allocation in overseas markets.

这怎么可能算是明智的呢？

How how can that be smart?

我的意思是，这根本感觉说不通。

We I I mean, it just doesn't feel like it can be to me.

你知道的。

You know?

你看估值的话。

Like, I you look at valuation.

我是个坚定的信仰者。

You look at I mean, I'm a a big believer.

我的意思是，实际上，我也非常欣赏纳西姆·塔勒布。

I mean, actually, know, I'm a huge Nassim Talib fan too.

你知道的？

You know?

他现在称之为白天鹅。

He he calls it a white swan today.

对吧？

Right?

他说，这本该是显而易见的。

He's like, it's this should be obvious.

美国让资金过度泛滥，你知道的？

The US has let money go be you know?

我们把资本成本维持在过低水平太久太久。

It's we've kept the cost of capital too cheap, too long.

他认为，这几乎就像在思考黑天鹅事件一样，对吧？

He thinks, It's almost like thinking about Crackatilla, right?

在这个系统中，风险正在累积，我认为分散投资反而更有意义，而且这种情况持续得越久，分散投资就越重要。

You've got this risk building in a system where I think diversification, if anything, the longer this occurs, the more diversification makes sense.

集中投资于美国大型股的观念长期奏效，以至于人们忘记了，我同意这种钟摆效应确实正在转变。

This notion of concentration and concentration in The US big caps has been what has worked for so long that I think people forget that I agree that pendulum shift.

我们实际上认为布莱克·克莱顿是个非常聪明的人，他经常谈到中国和台湾的钟摆效应加速了两到三倍。

We actually say Blake Clayton's a really smart guy, but he actually talks a lot about the pendulum swinging double and triple time in in China and Taiwan.

在韩国，你知道吧？

In Korea, you know?

它的摆动速度太快了。

It swings so fast.

中国是一个特别有趣的案例，因为正如你和布莱克指出的，它是MSCI新兴市场指数中占比最大的部分。

China is a particularly interesting case because as as you and Blake pointed out, it's it's by far the largest component of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index.

我认为它目前约占33%左右，而2020年时大约是42%。

It's, I think it's 33% or thereabouts down from about 42% in 2020.

当你对比墨西哥（我认为约占2%）或巴西（约占5%）时，就能看出中国的重要性有多高。

And when you compare places like Mexico that I think is 2% or Brazil, it's 5%, you see just how important China is.

因此，如果你大量投资新兴市场——而你确实如此——那么你就极度依赖中国是否受欢迎。

And so there's a sense in which if you're investing in emerging markets heavily, which you are, you're so dependent on whether China is popular or not.

中国显然经历了一段艰难时期，首先是由于新冠疫情的封锁政策，政府对私营企业的敌意，以及对阿里巴巴等公司的打压，我当初在它便宜得离谱时买入，结果它还在继续跌。

And China obviously has gone through this terrible period, but first, partly with the COVID lockdown policy, the hostility of the government towards private enterprise, the clobbered things like Alibaba, which I bought when it was incredibly cheap and just it keeps getting cheaper.

但如今房地产行业面临着巨大的债务问题。

But, massive debt problems in the property sector now.

而且你在中國投入了相当多的资金。

And you have quite a lot of money in China.

我的意思是，我记得上次查看时，Ronja新世界基金的20%资产都配置在中国的18只不同股票上。

I mean, I think when I last looked, 20% of your portfolio at Ronja, New World Fund was in in China in about 18 different stocks.

你怎么看待中国？现在很多人说中国已无法投资，即将崩溃，已经到达顶峰，未来一片黯淡，人口劣势令人绝望？

How do you think about China, which so many people at this point are saying is uninvestable and it's just gonna fall apart and it's peak China and the future is terrible and the demographic disadvantages are appalling?

它为什么对你有吸引力？

Why is it attractive to you?

嗯，我的意思是，人口问题在世界各地都很糟糕。

Well, I mean, the demographics are are bad everywhere.

我总想起那个《冰河时代》里的场景，你知道的，渡渡鸟在玩西瓜，踢足球，它们把西瓜扔出去，西瓜滚下了悬崖，雌性渡渡鸟也跟着冲下悬崖摔了下去。

I keep thinking of I I love that, you know, Louie ice age when, you know, the dodos are out playing with the watermelon, playing football, and, they throw the watermelon, it goes over a cliff, and their female runs over the edge of the cliff and falls.

渡渡鸟们说：‘哎呀，我们的最后一只雌性没了。’

The dodos are like, Oops, there goes our last female.

我的意思是，这其实是全球性的问题。

I mean, that's a problem around the world.

我的意思是，这并不仅仅是中国的特有问题。

I mean, it's not just a China specific problem.

所以我喜欢花时间在日本，因为那里就像是一个培养皿，集中了世界上其他地方即将面临的所有问题。

That's why I love spending time in Japan too, because it's such a petri dish for all these problems that are coming from the rest of the world.

长期存在的宽松货币政策，再加上人口持续减少，该如何应对这些问题。

Easy money policies that have prevailed there for so long, and then shrinking demographics, and how deal do with that.

所以我认为，这不是中国独有的问题，而是普遍存在的。

So I think that's a common problem that isn't unique to China.

这是一个全球性的问题。

It's a global problem.

我们真的致力于投资那些我们认为非常优秀、即使在这样的宏观环境下也能成长的公司。

We really try to invest in companies that we think are quite good, that can grow in spite of sort of this macro landscape.

我们的投资流程听起来和本·格雷厄姆的方法没有太大不同，或者说，是本·格雷厄姆和沃伦·巴菲特在全球市场中的结合。

Our process doesn't sound all that different than Ben Graham on or, you know, Ben Graham it's a combination of Ben Graham and Warren Buffett, you know, in global markets.

你知道，关键是哪些公司能够有远见地长期增长，哪些是优秀的资本配置者，会回购股票、支付股息。

You know, it's what companies grow thoughtfully over time, who is a good capital allocator, buys back shares, pays dividends.

因此，我们认为这些聪明的公司在这个环境中依然能够成长。

So there's sort of these smart companies that we think still can grow in this landscape.

我的意思是，我认为中国最终必须变得更加像世界其他地区。

I mean, I think China is going to have to look more like the rest of the world.

它必须成为一个以消费为主导的国家。

It's going to have to become a nation of consumers.

它能否做到这一点，我不知道。

Whether it can pull that off or not, I don't know.

但我们确实太早了。

But we've been too early.

我不确定我们是太早了还是太晚了。

I don't know if we were too early or too late.

在我们的世界里，我们一直以相对权重的视角来看待问题，至少我们本应根据指数权重来配置，但我们始终是低配的。

We've always had an I guess in our world where we think in terms of relative where at least we're supposed to think in terms of weight relative to the index, we've always been underweight.

正是因为你们所指出的那些具体问题，我们才一直低配中国。

China just because of the exact problems you point out.

你知道，符合我们质量标准和透明度标准的公司非常少，我们认为这些公司不太受政府强力干预的影响。

You know, there's such a small set of companies that fit our quality criteria, transparency criteria, you know, where we think they're less influenced by the hand of the the large hand of the government.

是的。

Yeah.

我看了下你们的持仓，像阿里巴巴这样的公司，我一直觉得这是我犯的一个代价高昂的错误，但幸运的是，因为我在里面投得不多，所以也没那么严重。

And I I was looking at your your holdings, and they were things like Alibaba, which I I was saying has been a a costly mistake for me, but luckily not that costly because I didn't have that much in it.

但是

But

至少现在走势是横盘整理。

Going sideways now at least.

你知道吗？

You know?

是的。

Yeah.

当一天不跌几个百分点时，这简直是一种享受。

That's a treat when it doesn't go down a couple of percent a day.

这对我来说是不错的一天。

That's a good day for me.

还有腾讯控股，很多优秀的投资者认为它很便宜。

And then Tencent Holdings, which a lot of good investors think is cheap.

还有像百胜中国控股、中国旅游集团免税品和星岛啤酒这样的公司。

And then things like Yum China Holdings and China Tourism Group Duty Free and Singtao Brewery.

所以看起来你寻找的共同点是相当保守的公司，它们很可能在任何情况下都能生存下来。

And so it looks like there's a sort of common denominator that you're looking for fairly conservative companies that are likely to survive whatever.

极其稳健的企业。

Insanely molded businesses.

对吧？

Right?

我的意思是，我们在寻找财务特征良好的公司，比如资产负债表强劲、现金流表现优异，并且在困境中也能有效利用现金流的能力。

I mean, we're looking for financial characteristics, great balance sheet, good cash flow characteristics, and the ability to use that cash flow well even in bad times.

我的意思是，经济低迷或市场不景气的好处之一，就是优质企业往往能在这些时期获得优势，因为其他公司都会倒闭。

I mean, part of the good thing about a bad economy or a bad market is good businesses tend to gain advantage during those periods because everything else goes under.

我的意思是，回溯到2000年，我现在有点记不清年份了，但你回想一下中国上次的市场低谷，大概是2015年吧？那时候中国的企业开始整合，真正形成了令人惊叹的护城河。

Mean, I go back to 2000, I it was I get my time years confused these days, but you go back to the last market in China, 2,000, I think that was 'fifteen, that was a time frame when China, the businesses there consolidated, so you actually had these incredible moats forming.

从分散化走向了整体化或垄断性行业。

Were going from fragmentation to all of the holistic or monopolistic industries.

因此，那段时间你看到的是，拥有强劲资产负债表和护城河的企业反而变得更强。

So that was actually a period of time where you see good balance sheets and businesses with the moat only get better.

所以，想想美国在宏观经济最糟糕的时期，依然有股票成为大赢家。

So you think about The US during the worst periods of the macro environment, you still had stocks that were big winners.

你总是在寻找那些价格合理、有望在任何环境下生存的优质公司，而且你常常是在那些此刻人人厌恶的糟糕国家里寻找它们。

And you're always looking for good companies that are at at a reasonable price that are likely to survive whatever, and you're often looking for them in horrible countries that everyone hates at that particular moment.

所以这与你多年来在土耳其等地的做法并没有什么不同。

So this is this is not dissimilar to your approach in places like Turkey over the years or elsewhere.

是的。

Mary Yes.

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，优质企业的估值变得更合理了。

So, I mean, that's good businesses got more reasonably priced.

大多数人在中国重仓投资，但我们觉得市场太贵了。

Most people had heavyweights in China, we thought the market was way too expensive.

当时市场情绪高涨，股票被高估了。

Mean, the animal spirits were incredible, stocks were overvalued.

所以我们在那里没什么投资。

So we didn't have much investment there.

我想这是几年前的事了。

I guess this was a couple of years ago.

我的意思是，这正是我们去年表现如此出色的部分原因。

Mean, it's part of why we had such a good year last year.

我们没有持有俄罗斯股票，当俄乌冲突发生时，我们完全没有持仓。

We didn't own Russia and we when Russia Ukraine happened, we didn't own any.

然后，你知道，当疫情导致中国股市过热时，我们大幅减持了中国资产。

Then, you know, we were dramatically we sold a lot of China when it got expensive during COVID.

所以，如果你还记得，疫情初期中国的政策是最积极的，股市因此暴涨，股价被严重高估。

So China, if you remember, their policies were the best at the beginning of COVID, so the stock market was on fire and stocks were expensive.

那时我们开始减持中国股票的仓位，我想这次我们可能太早退出了。

And that's when we were peeling back on our Shiner weights, and I think we've been too early this time.

你有一个非常独特的流程，我想请你简单向大家解释一下：这个流程始于你对全球约七万家公司进行基本面筛选，以识别出被低估或高估的股票，以及需要避开的领域。

You you have this unusual process that I wondered if if you could explain quickly to people because it starts with you doing this bottom up screen of something like 70,000 companies around the world to give you a sense of where there are patterns of, of underpriced stocks or overpriced stocks, places you need to to avoid.

你能谈谈这个庞大、耗时且繁琐的筛选过程是如何迭代进行，并帮助你规避风险的吗？

Can you talk about how how this this iterative process of doing this enormous and very time consuming and arduous screen helps to guide you and keep you out of trouble?

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，如果我们读过《聪明的投资者》，并回头去研究你的智慧，你就是一个投资者。

I mean, we it's I mean, honestly, it's if you read Defence of Investor and you go back to read your intelligence, you're an investor.

我的意思是，我们从该死的老爷子那里学到了很多东西。

I mean, we have stolen a lot from the damn grand.

我的意思是，我们从资产负债表开始分析。

I mean, we look we start with the balance sheet.

我的意思是，这正是我和Wasatch的不同之处。

I mean, that's that's where I differ from Wasatch.

我最初的导师都是价值投资者。

My original mentors were value investors.

说来奇怪，我最初在American Century这家成长型公司工作，我的导师们实际上在教我格雷厄姆和巴菲特的理念，而我当时根本不知道他们在教这些。

Go by oddly enough, at a growth firm in American Century, my mentors I was an accidental tourist to Graham and Buffett.

他们当时教我时，我才25岁，教的是格雷厄姆和巴菲特，但我完全没意识到他们教的是这些。

They were teaching me I was 25 years old, they were teaching me, Graham and Buffett, and I had no idea that's what they were teaching me.

所以我们只是把这套方法应用到国际市场。

So we just apply that to the international markets.

我们的筛选标准从资产负债表入手，它能反映出一家公司资产负债表的状况。

Mean, we look, we started the screen, it encapsulates what does a balance sheet of a company look like.

回溯十年、十五年，分析资产负债表的历史、现金流，以及公司是否创造了经济价值。

Goes back ten, fifteen years, fifteen years, but looks at the balance sheet, the history of the balance sheet, the cash flow, whether the company adds economic value.

我们从资产负债表开始，问：这家公司是否有合理的杠杆水平？

We start with balance sheet and you say, Does this company have reasonable leverage?

还是说，资产负债表上的债务正在改善？

Or is the debt on the balance sheet improving?

因此，你在业务中寻找这些特征，然后判断：这是否是一种可以承受一定债务的业务？

So you're looking for these terms in the business, and then you're saying, Is this the type of business where it's acceptable to have some debt?

这是否是一种具有高比例经常性收入的业务，或者是一种简单的业务，即使经济不景气，消费者仍会购买方便面或啤酒？

Is it a business where there's a high level of recurring revenue or a simple business where consumers tend to consume even when it's fat, ramen noodles or buds?

接着我们看现金流，公司是如何使用现金流的？

Then we look at the cash flow, how does the company use the cash flow?

它们是否在为增长进行投资？

Are they investing for growth?

他们支付股息吗？

Do they pay dividends?

他们回购股票吗？

Do they buy back shares?

最后但同样重要的是，我们真的会看——这来自像研究沃伦·巴菲特投资方式这样的书籍——他们的利润率是否表明他们具有竞争优势？

Then last but not least, we really look at I mean, this is from this kind of book, like studying how Warren Buffett invests, but does their margin suggest that they have a competitive advantage?

然后是格雷厄姆，他们的增长是稳定还是持久的？

And then Graham, does they have stable or durable growth?

我们不是在寻找增长最快的公司，而是在寻找那些在各种不同环境中都能持续增长的企业。

We're not looking for the fastest growth, but we're looking for a business that has a history of growing through a lot of different environments.

然后我们逐步缩小范围。

And then we whittle that world down.

信不信由你，当你今天缩小范围时，符合这种高质量标准的公司数量，远比你环顾全球时想象的要少。

Believe it or not, it's when you whittle the world down today, there aren't that many companies that fit that level of quality as when you look around the world.

所以，这是我们谈到国际新兴市场时还没提到的另一个原因，但你总听说：小盘股公司的质量一定很差，对吧？

So Here's another reason when we talk about international emerging markets that we haven't gotten to, but you always hear this, quality of the company must be terrible in small cap land, right?

在美国，股价一路飙升，我认为在小盘股领域留下的公司，加上我们经历了高通胀，我们对小盘股的定义可能需要调整。

In America where stock prices have gone up, up and up, I think what has been left in small cap, and given we've had high levels of inflation, how we define small cap should probably change.

但如果你使用通胀前的老定义来界定小盘股，那么这里的中小盘股质量可能确实不太理想。

But I think if you're using old definitions of small cap pre inflation, then yeah, the quality of a small cap here probably isn't all that good.

你有

You've got

如今小盘股领域充斥着大量亏损公司。

a lot of unprofitable companies in small cap land today.

但我们要面对的是小国市场。

But I mean, we're dealing with small countries.

你像新西兰这样的国家，人口非常少，或者澳大利亚。

You've got countries like New Zealand where the population is just tiny, or Australia.

我们面对的是新兴经济体。

We're dealing with nascent economies.

这意味着，当你放眼海外时，在小盘股领域可能会出现一头800磅重的大猩猩。

That means you can have an 800 pound gorilla in the small cap land when you look overseas.

我的意思是，小市值公司的质量其实不错，尤其是在海外，因为它们长期不受青睐。

I mean, the quality of company is quite good down cap, it's overseas, especially because it's been out of favor so long.

所以我们并没有在小市值领域牺牲质量。

So we're not sacrificing quality down cap.

一方面，你有一套非常系统化的过程，每年进行两次极其详尽的筛选，然后你每周的大部分时间都在逐家分析这些公司，看它们是否符合这些要求。

So you have this very systematic process on the one hand where you do this ridiculously detailed screen, I think, twice a year, and then you spend much of your work week going through these companies one by one seeing whether they fit fit these requirements.

这样你就能把这7万家公司缩减到大约300到500家，作为你的目标清单。

So you can reduce the those 70,000 companies to something like 300 to 500 companies maybe that's your target list.

而真正独特的是，你会疯狂地出差旅行。

And then the thing that's really distinctive is you go travel like crazy.

我记得你曾经告诉我，你每年有六个月到九个月都在路上。

I I remember you once telling me that you would travel six to nine months a year.

你过去也跟我提过，你的投资风格类似于无拘无束的自由诗。

And and you've talked to me about in the past your investing style resembling unconstrained free verse.

比如这家公司叫Grandeur，对吧？名字取自沃尔特·惠特曼一首诗中的段落。

Like like, there's this and the company is named Grandeur, right, after a passage from a Walt Whitman poem.

所以一方面，有一个非常系统而严谨的过程。

So so on the one hand, there's this very systematic rigorous process.

另一方面，则是一个非常自由、灵活、更具创造性的过程，核心是广泛地旅行和阅读。

And on the other hand, there's this very free, flexible process that's more creative that really revolves around travel and reading in an incredibly broad way.

所以我想要转向这个话题，因为我认为这正是你投资方式中非常独特且极具个人特色的地方。

And so I wanted to switch to that topic because I think it's something that's so distinctive about your approach, and it's very idiosyncratic.

在投资行业里，这并不常见。

It's not common in the investment industry.

那么首先，我们谈谈旅行。

So first, let's talk about travel.

这些年来你去过多少个国家？

How many countries have you been to over the years?

75个。

75.

在这些国家中，很多地方都拥有大量高质量的现代企业，有些国家我去过很多次。

And many of those countries, if you think about where there's a broad array of high quality, modern businesses, some countries I've been to many times.

我的意思是，当你去韩国的时候，韩国仍然是一个交换名片的国家。

I mean, you know when you go to Korea, Korea is still a country where you exchange business cards.

我知道，当我走进一场公司会议时，他们并不想和我交换名片。

And, you know, I walk into a corporate meeting and they don't want to exchange cards with me.

你知道，这可能说明我已经参加过好几次会议了。

You know, it's probably a sign that I've been in meetings a few times.

但确实如此。

But yeah.

所以有些地方，你知道，我只去过一两次，而有些地方我去过很多次。

So there there are some places, you know, I've only been once or twice and some I've gone to many times.

你能谈谈这种经历带来的模式识别吗？

And can you talk about the pattern recognition that comes from that?

因为我觉得你去各地时，比如去土耳其，我记得你曾经告诉我，你看。

Because I I I I think of you going whether it's to a place like Turkey where I remember you once telling me, look.

我曾经在那里住过每晚1200美元的酒店，也住过每晚75美元的酒店。

I I I was there when the hotels were $1,200 a night, and I was there when the when the hotels were $75 a night.

你能谈谈这些反复实地考察所带来的模式识别吗？

Can you talk about the pattern recognition that comes from these repeated boots on the ground trips?

嗯，我最近在日本的时候，举个例子吧。

Well, we just we I was in when I was in Japan, this I'll give you an example.

我这次在日本时，写了一封季度信，讲的是汉堡经济学。

When I was in Japan this last time, I actually wrote my quarterly letter on the hamburger economics.

我谈到了巨无霸指数，但我也留意了过去五个月我们去过的每一个国家。

I was talking about the big Mac index, but I noticed every country we've been to over the last five months.

所以，所有非美元计价或非美元导向的国家，现在的汉堡都特别便宜。

So everything that's not dollar denominated or dollar oriented has really cheap hamburgers right now.

这又回到了今天的国际市场。

So this goes back to international markets today.

它们现在很便宜。

They're cheap.

你知道吗？

You know?

几乎你去任何地方，无论是新兴市场还是发达市场。

Almost anywhere you go, emerging, developed.

你知道吗，这很有趣，我们在这里读到这些东西。

You know, it's funny, we read that stuff here.

我们读到这些内容，知道美元很强，但除非你真正身临其境，否则你可能意识不到如今美元有多强势。

We read that stuff, and we know, like, the dollar is strong, but I don't think you realise it until you're really truly realise it until you're on the ground just how strong that dollar is today.

所以，这些是我们亲眼所见的事情。

So, you know, these are things we see.

我想因为我是一名消费分析师，而且你知道，我最初接受的是消费领域的训练，那是我第一个研究的行业。

Think because I'm a consumer analyst and, you know, I was trained first in consumer, that was my first sector.

因此，我所做的很多工作，或者我们投资的公司类型，或者我的能力圈所在，都是实实在在的。

And so, so much of what I do or the types of companies that we invest in or where my circle of competence lies is tangible.

所以，你知道，我可以观察人们的行为，这对我了解他们正在做什么非常有帮助。

So, you know, I can watch people's behaviour and that's really helpful to me to see what they're doing.

你说得对。

You're right.

我的意思是，这背后有一种严格的限制，因为我们时间不多。

I mean, there's a combination of this real rigor of we don't have a lot of time.

我们所处的这个行业，你知道，必须以一种合理的方式缩小范围，筛选出重点。

We're in this industry that's, you know, we've got to narrow down or whittle down the world in a way that makes sense.

我们会缩小范围，确定要关注的公司类型或业务领域。

We narrow down, these are the types of companies or the businesses we're going to look at.

然后亲自外出走访，能实现多个目的。

And then getting on the road serves multiple purposes.

我认为，这又回到了今天一切相互关联这一点上。

I think again, it goes to everything today is interconnected, I think.

没有任何一家公司是孤立存在的。

There's no company that exists in a vacuum.

它存在于全球经济之中。

It exists within a global economy.

因此，要想弄清楚这家公司的核心驱动因素，仅仅阅读一份卖方机构的季度报告是远远不够的。

So for me to try to go out and solve for what makes this company tick, it requires doing a lot more than just reading a sell side report on the quarter.

你们的方法中另一件非常不寻常的事情是，你们不仅频繁前往不同国家拜访公司，还实际上在许多国家长期定居。

Another thing that's very unusual about your approach is that you're not just constantly traveling to countries to visit companies, but you've actually planted yourself in many different countries for extended periods of time.

你能谈谈过去你曾在哪里长期居住，你是如何做到的，以及这为什么对你如此有帮助吗？

Can you talk about what you've done in the past, some of the places where you've put yourself and how you do it and why that's been so helpful to you?

是的。

Yeah.

这其中也有一部分原因，你知道的。

There was a part of it, you know, too.

我的意思是，当共享经济兴起时，这些公寓突然变得非常经济实惠。

I mean, it was actually when, you know, when shared the shared economy came about, all these apartments, you know, it actually became frugal.

实际上，飞机票往往是旅行中最昂贵的部分。

It's actually because this plane ticket is actually often the most expensive part of travel.

你会去那里租一套公寓，适应当地的时区。

You'd go and you'd rent this apartment in this place, you'd get on the time zone.

我认为最重要的一点是保持自己的健康，与这些公司处于同一时区。

Think one of the biggest things was saving your own health, getting in the same time zone with these companies.

在美國時區和美國思維模式下運作，能完成更多事情。

Were able to get a lot more done operating in The US time zone and a US frame of mind.

所以當我走訪非洲時，經常從歐洲中轉。

So I've hugged out of when I was covering Africa, used to hug out of Europe a lot.

如果我要去法語區非洲，我會從巴黎中轉，因為那裡的航班非常多，也很方便。

If I were going to French speaking Africa, I would hug out of Paris because the flights were really common, you know, and easy.

所以如果我要去英語區非洲，我就會從英國中轉。

So if I were, you know, traveling to English speaking Africa, I've hubbed out of The UK.

我還從日本中轉過。

I've hubbed out of Japan.

我在印度尼西亞待過好幾週。

I've spent weeks in Indonesia.

我也不是那種人。

I'm not one either.

你知道，你常聽說有些人去泰國生活，然後從海濱城市出發旅行。

Like, you know, you hear about people who, you know, they go live in Thailand and they go pub out of, you know, a beach city.

我的意思是，我喜欢曼谷，所以我会待在曼谷。

I mean, I like Bangkok, so I'll stay in Bangkok.

我觉得这非常有趣，当你在这些地方待上一段时间时，你会学到很多关于人们行为方式的知识。

I find it fascinating, and you learn a lot about how people behave when you're in when you spend time in these places.

你会对文化有更深的了解。

You learn a lot about culture.

我想我记得你曾经跟我说过，你还长时间待过阿布扎比和迪拜，有一段时间你在肯尼亚待了一个月，还去过坦桑尼亚，以便更深入了解东非。

I think I remember you saying to me you'd also spent a lot of time staying in places like Abu Dhabi and Dubai, and you'd spend a month in Kenya at one point, and you'd go to Tanzania so you could learn more about East Africa.

而且我记得你曾经在阿姆斯特丹待了很长一段时间，在巴黎也待了很长一段时间。

And I think there was a time you you stayed in Amsterdam for an extended period, Paris for a extended period.

所以还有泰国、新加坡。

So there's a Thailand, Singapore.

这是一种非传统的建立竞争优势的方式——通过深入了解世界某个特定区域的运作方式和当地文化。

So there's a this is an unusual way to build a kind of competitive advantage by having a deep sense of how a particular part of the world operates, what the culture is like there.

我觉得这也能节省很多时间。

I think it saves a lot of time too.

我最近和两三位不同世代的投资者一起旅行过，包括刚入行的新手投资者、职业生涯初期的投资者，以及中期的投资者。

I travelled recently with two or three there were three different generations of investors, sort of entry level or new investors, like beginning of their career, kind of mid career investors.

如今，我通常是房间里资历最深的人。

Then, you know, I'm usually the most senior person in the room these days.

但你知道，人们处理事情的方式非常有趣，因为对我来说，这其中蕴含着文化的微妙差异。

But, you know, it's so interesting how you approach things because for me, there's this nuance of culture.

我说不清楚，但很多会议的开头部分都因为文化差异而被误解了。

I don't know how to explain it, but the first part of a lot of meetings is lost in translation.

我认为，当我们参加国际会议时，由于不了解这些文化差异，我们浪费了大量管理时间。

I think we all waste a lot of managerial time by sort of not understanding these cultural things when we go into the meetings.

我的意思是，这让我能够更快地抓住投资的核心——通过理解公司在其特定文化背景下的运作方式。

I mean, I think one of the things that it has enabled me to do is cut to the chase of what makes the investment tick a lot quicker by understanding how the company functions within its particular culture.

我认为这很重要，而且真的能带来巨大优势。

I think that's important, and I think that that can really counts for marine a lot.

你还有这种对当地文化的尊重感，我认为这与许多张扬的美国人有所不同。

You also have this sense of, I I I would say, respect for the local cultures that's different, I think, from a lot of the brash Americans.

我把自己算作一个荣誉性的直率美国人，因为我从二十岁出头就住在这里，尽管途中我还在香港和伦敦生活过。

And I count myself as an honorary brash American having lived here since my early twenties, although I did live in Hong Kong and London along the way.

但我记得你曾经跟我谈起过日本，而且你多年前在京都买过一套房子，所以你在那儿待了很长时间。

But I remember you talking to me about Japan, and and you obviously, years ago, had bought a home in in Kyoto, so you spent a lot of time there.

你跟我讲过，日本公司的实际优先事项与美国公司有多么不同。

And you talked to me about just how different the actual priorities of a of a Japanese company are to the priorities of a US company.

你能给我们讲讲这种差异吗？

Can can you give us a sense of that?

因为这完美地体现了为什么你不能只是把自己的价值观强加给所访问的文化。

Because it just it's a perfect embodiment of why you actually need not just to impose your own values on the cultures that you're visiting.

玛丽，这其实早在ESG或负责任投资成为潮流之前就存在了，对吧？

Mary And ESG or responsible investing before it was fashionable, right?

我的意思是，这是关于利益相关者、客户。

I mean, it's stakeholder, customer.

客户第一。

Customer comes first.

我们忽视了这些角色，主要是员工。

There's these actors that we don't count, mainly employee.

在西方文化中，我们很少考虑员工，而是更关注客户。

We don't think as much about employees in Western culture, customers.

这其实是一种为季度业绩而管理的氛围，你知道的，追求利润最大化，对吧？

It's really this environment of managing for the quarter, you know, maximizing profit, right?

是的。

Yeah.

短期追求利润最大化， versus 长期生存，我认为这两种文化截然不同。

Profit maximization, right, in the short term versus, you know, surviving for the long term, I think I think it's dramatically different culture.

顺便说一下，我知道，我们俩都有一个共同点，我觉得我们都喜欢格雷厄姆·格林。

And I know, by the way, I know, you know, we both have one, I think we both love Graham Green.

我是格雷厄姆·格林的超级粉丝。

I'm a huge Graham Green fan.

我最喜爱的书之一，也是我一生中最爱的书之一，就是《安静的美国人》。

Favourite, one of my favourite books of all time is The Quiet American.

这大概很好地概括了我是怎样的人。

That probably sums up who I am a lot.

我的意思是，我经常为海外的美国人感到羞愧，而我也曾因为自己是美国人而在海外出过丑。

Mean, I'm embarrassed by Americans overseas often, you know, and I've embarrassed myself a few times by being American overseas.

但我的意思是，所谓‘没有安静的美国人’这种说法，我认为是成立的。

But, I mean, this notion of there's no such thing as a quiet American, I think is is I think that statement rings true.

所以我尽量不在全球投资中带入我的美国特质。

So I try not to bring my American ness to global investing.

我想也许你还没意识到，我们在思考时采取了一种独特的方式。

I think maybe you haven't we we take a unique approach, you know, when we think.

当我们思考作为负责任的投资者应该成为怎样的人时，我不想沿袭这种西方观念——我认为美国的问题，嗯，这些正在改变，而你看欧洲，很多问题其实是富人的问题。

When we thought about, like, who we wanted to be as responsible investors, We wanted sort of this well, I didn't want this Western notion, you know, of I think the problems in The US, I mean, this is changing and, you know, you look at Europe, a lot of these problems are rich people's problems.

我一直在说，经过在非洲的大量经历后，贫穷是没有碳足迹的。

I've always said after spending all kinds of time in Africa, poverty has no carbon footprint.

这完全正确。

That's completely true.

所以，我们认为在进入每个不同国家时，应该尊重当地文化，以公司的视角而非我们自己的视角来沟通。

So you think how we tried to approach going into each different country was with respect for the culture and trying to speak on company's terms and not our own.

那你认为，我们该如何

And how do you I think think

我不会去告诉在印度经营公司的企业该如何运营。

I any business selling a company in India how they should run their business.

我没有这种想法，威尔。

I don't have that, Will.

这个观念是，我听你的播客时，年纪越大，反而知道得越少。

This notion of like, I am listening to your podcast, the older I get, the less I know.

这太真实了。

It's so true.

在一个星球上，我怎么能去告诉一个一生都在印度生活并经营企业的人该如何运营他们的公司呢？

On one planet should I be going into India telling someone who's lived and run a business in that culture forever how to run their business.

我只是觉得我不应该这样做。

I just don't think I should.

我记得蒙ish Pabrai曾经跟我谈起过一位著名的投资者，他去日本时告诉当地人：‘这就是你们修复经济需要做的事情。’

I remember Monish Pabrai once saying to me talking to me about a famous investor who who had gone into Japan and was telling them, you know, here's what you need to do to fix your economy.

而他，你知道的，这位是日本的一位大富豪型积极投资者，他说：‘这 guy 绝对会碰一鼻子灰。’

And he, you know, he was this sort of big billionaire activist investor in Japan, and he's like, this guy's just gonna get his head handed to him.

这是一个非常典型的例子，说明一个外国人——我想是个英国人——带着一种傲慢的念头，以为自己能去教化当地人，告诉他们如何变得更好、更聪明。

And it was a kind of wonderful example of a foreigner, in this case, an Englishman, I think, so wary, clear to blame, a foreigner thinking we could go in and civilize the locals and tell them how to how to be better and smarter.

我的意思是，即使是语言本身，你知道的，语言的细微差别。

I mean, I think even just language, you know, like, the nuances of language.

美国人说话很直接。

Americans are direct.

很多文化并不直接。

So many cultures are not direct.

所以我认为，如果带着‘所有人都很直接’这种观念去介入，很多时候人们会说一些你爱听的话，尤其是我觉得亚洲文化最典型——因为我对它们最了解——他们会为了让你尽快离开，而说些你希望听到的话。

And so I think by going in with this notion that everyone is direct, I mean, a lot of times people will say something and especially, I think, I'll speak to Asian cultures because because I know they're the best, but you're like, they will tell you what you wanna hear just to get you to leave not alone.

你懂的？

You know?

所以，我的意思是，你得去参加一场会议。

So, I mean, you have to go into a meeting.

你知道的。

You know?

这再次说明了阅读有多么重要。

This is, again, why reading is so important.

综合分析法对我而言至关重要，因为大多数文化都不会直接告诉你真相。

Mosaic theory is so important to me because most cultures are not going to tell.

我觉得美国人也会告诉你他们想听的话，即使他们的观点已经过时甚至错误，他们也会极力坚持。

I don't think Americans, they'll tell you what you want to hear too, and they'll strongly moist their opinions, even if their opinions are dead and wrong.

因为我觉得，尤其是我年轻的时候，对吧？

Because I think particularly when I was younger, right?

也许我年轻时是个更勇敢的投资者，因为我以为自己是对的，或者确信自己是对的。

Maybe I was a braver investor when I was younger because I thought I was right or knew I was right.

我现在总觉得我总是错的。

I feel like I'm wrong all the time.

随着时间的推移，我越来越强烈地感受到，自己并不知道所有我想知道的事情。

Just this immense sense as time goes on of not knowing all the things I want to know.

所以，我认为这种对文化层面的谦逊与细微差别非常重要。

So anyway, I think that sort of level of humility and nuance of culture is important.

我总是告诉日本的人，你知道吗，'是'可能意味着'不'。

I always tell people in Japan, you know, yes may mean no.

我会试试'的意思就是'不'。

I will try means no.

'也许'的意思就是'不'。

Maybe means no.

'或许'的意思就是'不'。

Perhaps means no.

如果你让他们说'不'，那你就真的说错话了。

And if you get them to say no, then you really said something wrong.

这完全是另一个世界。

It's just a different world.

我觉得北亚的很多地方也属于这种模式，你知道的。

I think a lot of North Asia is fits in that mode as well, you know.

当我去非洲旅行时，我惊讶地发现那里的群体或社区文化更加普遍。

I was surprised when I traveled to Africa, how much sort of the culture of group or community was more pervasive there.

几乎感觉像亚洲式的，而不是西方的，我想，如果我们用‘西方’这个词的话。

Almost felt Asian in nature versus Western, I guess, if we're using Western.

你

You

你曾经给我讲过一个很美的比喻，说世界就像俄罗斯套娃，而你觉得自己才刚接触到第二层。

once had a lovely image that you explained to me where you were talking about seeing the world in terms of nesting dolls and having this sense of of only having got to the second layer.

你能解释一下你是什么意思吗？

Can can you explain what you meant?

因为这是一种非常棒的方式，可以形象地理解我们对自己无知的接纳。

Because it's a it's a very good way to to visualize this kind of acceptance of our own ignorance in a way.

现在我觉得我可能连第一层都还没完全进入，但你知道，北美这个世界真是个复杂的地方。

Now I think I might only be on the first, but, you know, but yeah, now North America, world is a complex place.

我的意思是，这正是我无论如何都要避免商业复杂性的原因之一。

I mean, think it's one of the reasons I avoid complexity in businesses at all costs.

第一，我觉得自己并不够聪明，所以我只做简单的生意。

One, I don't think I'm very smart, so I stick to simple businesses.

但我的确非常相信，在一个复杂的世界里理解一个简单的生意。

But I mean, understanding a simple business in a complex world is something I believe tremendously in.

我觉得每次旅行，你都会发现一些新的东西。

I feel like with each trip, you discover something new.

而这些发现往往不是你出发前以为会找到的。

And it's not what you think you're going to discover when you go.

所以，每次旅行我都会对最终发现的东西感到意外。

So, like, it's it's always a surprise to me what what it is I find out on a trip.

你曾经给我一个形象的比喻，就是俄罗斯套娃，有一层层的结构，而我们总是在最外层。

The image you had given me was you like with those Russian nesting dolls, there's a whole series of layers, and and we're always sort of on the outside.

也许你能到达第二层，但离中心还远得很。

Maybe you get to the second layer, but you're nowhere near the center.

我认为这是一种非常有助于理解我们自身无知或知识水平的方式。

And I I think that's a really helpful way to visualize our own ignorance or level of knowledge.

我想，随着我阅读得越多，你也知道，我只是复杂世界中的一个人。

I think a lot of it too, the more I read I mean, you can take, I'm just one person in a complex world, you know?

我所能知道的终究有限，所以通过读书，我依然能汲取他人的智慧，了解不同性格类型的人如何看待这个世界。

There's only so much I can know, so by picking up a book, I can still harness somebody else's knowledge, a different personality type so they may be seeing the world in a different way.

我认为，不读书、不旅行，我其实也做了所有基础性的工作。

And I think, you know, like, not reading or not travelling, and I do all the fundamental work too.

我的意思是，疫情期间我读了更多10-Q和10-K报告，而且乐在其中。

I mean, COVID I read more 10 Qs and Ks and I was loving it.

你可以想象我构建模型，但当你看到它时，就像你入住Airbnb时发现桌上放着一个拼图，而外面正在下雪。

You know, you can imagine I build models, but you look and you think It's sort of like when you check into an Airbnb and you see a puzzle and it's snowing.

换一种思路，当你拼到一半时，突然发现少了十块，这会让人抓狂。

I think the other way to think about it is you get partially done with the puzzle and then you realize 10 pieces are missing, so it kind of drives you crazy.

所以对我来说，旅行和阅读就像是在发现那些缺失的拼图碎片。

So to me, travelling and reading is kind of discovering those missing puzzle pieces.

我的同事布莱克去了中国，我想这个季度他还去了印度尼西亚。

And my colleague went to, Blake went to, he was in China and I think he was in Indonesia this quarter.

上个季度他去了菲律宾，而我则在日本待了几个星期。

Last quarter he was in The Philippines, I was in Japan during a couple weeks.

我的顿悟并不是觉得金融行业可能再次出现了有趣商业模式，因为存在杠杆，而且我认为强者将生存下来。

It wasn't my epiphany was like, Oh, know, the finance industry may have interesting business models again because there is leverage and I think the strong are going to survive.

你可能会在日本看到一些意想不到的行业整合。

You might have consolidation in Japan that you weren't going to expect.

每次旅行中，你总会发现一些三十比五十不同的东西，真正发现的往往不是你原本以为会发现的。

So it's always something thirty:fifty different that you discover on a trip, it's not what you think you're going to discover that you discover.

让我们稍作休息，听听今天赞助商的信息。

Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors.

特雷，不，这不是你的错觉。

Trey No, it's not your imagination.

风险和监管正在加剧，客户现在甚至只是为了开展业务，就要求提供安全证明。

Risk and regulation are ramping up and customers now expect proof of security just to do business.

这就是为什么Vanta是一个变革者。

That's why Vanta is a game changer.

Vanta自动化您的合规流程，将合规、风险和客户信任整合到一个由AI驱动的平台上。

Vanta automates your compliance process and brings compliance, risk, and customer trust together on one AI powered platform.

无论您是在准备SOC 2审计，还是在运行企业GRC项目，Vanta都能确保您的安全并推动交易顺利进行。

So whether you're prepping for a SOC two or running an enterprise GRC program, Vanta keeps you secure and keeps your deals moving.

像Ramp和Ryder这样的公司使用Vanta后，审计时间减少了82%。

Companies like Ramp and Ryder spend 82% less time on audits with Vanta.

这不仅仅是更快的合规，更是为增长争取了更多时间。

That's not just faster compliance, it's more time for growth.

我喜欢Vanta让合规管理变得轻松，而不会完全占据您的整个工作流程。

I love how Vanta makes it easy to stay on top of your compliance without it taking over your entire workflow.

它简化了通常远比必要更繁琐的事情。

It just simplifies something that's usually way more painful than it needs to be.

立即访问 vanta.com slash billionaires 开始使用。

Get started at vanta dot com slash billionaires.