RWH041：远离人群，与超级投资者布鲁斯·伯克维茨同行

但到那时候，我们已经搬走了。

But by that but that by that time, we had moved.

我们搬到了河的南边。

We moved south of the river.

但，是的，那座大楼宏伟而美丽，你所在的那个地方。

But, yeah, that was in the grand old that was a beautiful building as well where you

哦，我刚建的。

Oh, I just built.

就在那儿。

It was right.

不是。

It was no.

那是一座很棒的建筑。

It's a fabulous building.

是的，我告诉了那里的总经理他想知道的事，结果得到了一份工作。

And, yeah, so I told the managing director there what he wanted to know and ended up with a job.

他说，你知道，我们为什么要雇你？

He said, you know, why should we hire you?

你家境并不富裕。

You don't come from any money.

你不是英国人？

You're not from England?

我说，是的，但我认为我会为你赚很多钱。

I said, yeah, but I think I'm gonna make you a lot of money.

不知为何，他欣赏这一点，于是聘我当了一名年轻经纪人，我非常幸运。

Then for some reason, he appreciated that, and he hired me as a young broker, and I was I was very lucky.

你觉得自己为什么这么擅长这份工作？

Why do you think you were so good at it?

你身上有什么特质让你成为出色的销售员和股票挑选者？还是说你当时还不太会选股票？

What what was it about you that made you good as a salesman and good at picking stocks, or were you not yet good at picking stocks?

你不需要很厉害，因为我们正处于从1980年开始，利率从极高水平逐渐下降的时期。

You didn't have to be good because we were in that period from molker, ultra high interest rates starting to head down from 1980.

所以如果你涉足固定收益市场并且看涨，那简直不可能不赚钱。

So if you were involved in fixed income and you were bullish, I mean, you couldn't help but make money.

那时候零息债券、三十年期贴现证券、老虎债券、猫债券和贴现债券的认股权证盛行，那是一个令人惊叹的领域，表现非常出色。

And those were the days of zero coupons and thirty year strip securities and tigers and cats and and warrants on strips, and it it was an amazing area and did very well.

而且表现非常出色。

And it was did very well.

每当我想要奖金时，最后得到的都是某个俱乐部的会员资格。

And every time I wanted a bonus, I ended up with a membership to a club.

马克俱乐部、哈里酒吧。

Mark's Club, Harry's Bar.

那真是太棒了。

It was great.

但这种情况持续了很长时间，我开始赚到一些相当可观的钱。

But it went on and on, and I started to make some reasonably good money.

后来，雷曼兄弟找到了我。

Then I was approached by Lehman Brothers.

我想更多地参与美林证券。

I wanted to do more Merrill Lynch.

他们对我所做的工作非常满意，我想转向资产管理领域，因为我觉得自己现在已经赚够了。

They were very happy with what I was doing, where I wanted to go into the asset management side because I thought that I need now I've made enough now.

我想开始投资自己的钱，并且制定一条规则：我只会以投资自己钱的方式去投资别人的钱。

I want to start invest my own money, and I want to develop a rule where I'll only invest other people's money the way in which I will invest my money.

所以这个想法在经纪行业并没有得到很好的接受。

So we'll and that didn't really go over very well in the brokerage world.

这被认为是利益冲突。

That that was considered a conflict of interest.

于是我最终在西区开设了雷曼兄弟的办公室。

So I ended up opening up the Lehman Brothers office in the West End.

是的。

Yeah.

所以你在雷曼待了几年。

So you were at Lehman for a few years.

对吧？

Right?

然后我也为他们在新泽西工作过，我想，担任高级投资组合经理。

And then and then went to New Jersey for them as well, I believe, as a senior portfolio manager.

是的。

Yeah.

去了曼哈顿，启动了一个投资组合管理项目，当时在雷曼兄弟被拆分时，我是唯一一个离开雷曼兄弟去史密斯弗罗尼资产管理公司的人。

Went, yeah, went to Manhattan, started a portfolio management program, and then I was the only employee that left Lehman Brothers to go to Smith Fronnie Asset Management at the time when Lehman Brothers was being shut was being separated out.

当你回顾那些年份时，你显然看到很多普通投资者在做蠢事并失败。

When you look back on those years, you obviously saw a lot of regular investors doing dumb things and failing.

因此，你能看到他们被其他不道德的经纪人或不懂行的人推销的垃圾产品。

And so, I mean, you could you could see the rubbish they were being sold by other unscrupulous brokers or people who didn't know what they were doing.

你能看到高昂的费用等等。

You could see high expenses and the like.

我猜你能看到所有情绪都处于高位。

You I assume you could see all of the emotions running high.

比如，你从内部看到了什么，让你明白过来。

Like, what did you see sort of from the belly of the beast that enabled you to understand, okay.

嗯，那种类型的投资者，我不想成为那样的人。

Well, that's that's the type of investor I don't wanna be.

从最纯粹的角度来说，这就像一场赌博。

Well, in its purest form, it's a bucket shot.

有些人就是想方设法通过佣金和隐藏费用从有钱人身上赚钱。

There were people, you know, just figuring out ways to take money from people who had it in the form of commissions and and hidden fees.

这真是令人震惊。

It was it was shocking.

那时候我有个朋友。

I had a friend in those days.

我在伦敦的一个朋友让我开了个经纪账户，那时我大概才21岁。

A friend of mine in London got me to open a brokerage account back I mean, I must have been about 21.

对吧？

Right?

我的意思是，我当时只有大约3美元。

I mean, I had about $3.

他当时说，是的。

And and he was like, yeah.

不。

No.

这会很棒，因为你可以几周后就取消，但我能为你拿到开户奖励积分。

It'll be great because you'll be able to you you can cancel it in a few weeks, but I'm gonna get the points for you, you know, the incentive for you opening it.

所以他实际上是把整个系统都操纵了。

And so he he just had sort of rigged the whole the whole system.

这一切根本就跟客户毫无关系。

None of it really was to do with the client at all.

对。

Right.

没错。

And yes.

你能看到那里人们的举止。

And you could see the behaviour of of the people there.

他们内心深处知道，自己所做的是错误的，而且他们非常自我毁灭。

They knew deep down inside, they knew what they were doing was wrong, and they were very self destructive.

但我记得，在回到美国之前，当我加入雷曼兄弟时，又开始投资了。

But I remember, and it was before going back to United States, when I joined Lehman Brothers, started, you know, again, investing.

固定收益市场表现得不可思议地好，但我决定有一种更好的投资方式。

The fixed income markets were doing unbelievably well, but I decided there's a better way to invest.

就像大多数人偶然发现本杰明·格雷厄姆、沃伦·巴菲特、彼得·林奇或比尔·米勒一样，你阅读、再阅读，然后说：好吧。

And as most people by accident, you find out about Benjamin Graham and Warren Buffett or Peter Lynch or Bill Fisher, you read and you read, and you say, alright.

这说得通。

This makes sense.

这比经纪公司告诉你的东西合理得多。

This makes a lot more sense than what you're hearing from brokerage firms.

然后你尝试以自己的方式去做，但这是一种不同的投资方式，对经纪公司或经纪人来说利润更低。

And then you try and do it in your own way, but that is a different way to invest, and it's not as profitable for the brokerage firm or for the broker.

所以你必须经历一个过程，实际上你需要后退两步、三步、四步甚至五步，才能向前迈进。

So there was a process that you have to go through where you're literally taking two, three, four, five steps back in order to go to go forward.

你知道，买入并持有的理念，并不怎么赚钱。

You know, the idea of buying something and holding it, it's not very profitable.

你很早就形成了投资生涯中几乎定义性的特点，那就是极度集中于极少数股票。

And you came very early to this almost defining feature of your investment career, which is a tremendous amount of concentration in a very small number of stocks.

我猜得对吗？在你任职于史密斯巴尼投资顾问公司时，你的投资组合基本上只有两只股票，其中一只就是伯克希尔？

Am I right in thinking that there was a point when you were at Smith Barney Investment Advisors where basically your portfolio was, like, two stocks, one of which was Berkshire?

伯克希尔。

Berkshire.

是的。

Yes.

伯克希尔·哈撒韦。

Berkshire Hathaway.

伯克希尔·哈撒韦。

Berkshire Hathaway.

当时我们持有消防员基金、美国企业基金，有一段时间，富国银行的仓位也非常大，当时银行股正遭受重创。

We had fireman's fund at the time, Fund American Enterprises, or at one point, it was a huge position, Wells Fargo, when the banks were getting hit.

是的。

Yes.

我总是喜欢深入细节，努力理解企业的本质，而不是泛泛地了解很多东西；我更希望集中精力，深入理解更少的行业。

I always enjoy getting into the minutiae and trying to understand the business as opposed to sort of roughly understanding a lot of things I wanted to try and better understand fewer industries.

你的上司有没有对此提出反对？

Was there a lot of sort of kickback from your bosses?

我的意思是，他们是否对你的投资组合如此集中、只持有少数几只股票感到震惊，还是根本不在意？

I mean, were they appalled at the idea that you would have so much money and so few stocks, or did it not really matter?

哦，在资产管理领域，这确实很重要。

Oh, it did matter in the in the asset management area.

我的意思是，他们不可能让我管理他们的任何一只基金。

I mean, there was no way I was going to manage one of their funds.

我有自己的客户。

I had my clients.

我的客户对我的风格很满意，但这完全违背了所有所谓投资经理管理资金的方式。

My clients were fine with my style, but it was totally against what what every so called portfolio manager was doing with the money.

那些所谓的‘ closet indexers ’（ closet 指数基金投资者）必须像一群旅鼠一样抱团，这样无论发生什么，都不会有人被责怪。

It's just the the closet indexers who need to be in a lemming like group so that no matter what happens, no one gets blamed.

我们短暂休息一下，听听今天赞助商的广告。

Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors.

好的。

All right.

我想让你们想象一下，在夏季高峰期待在奥斯陆的三天。

I want you guys to imagine spending three days in Oslo at the height of the summer.

你有漫长的白昼、绝佳的美食、漂浮在奥斯陆峡湾上的桑拿房，而且你每一次交谈的对象，都是真正塑造未来的人。

You got long days of daylight, incredible food, floating saunas on the Oslo Fjord, and every conversation you have is with people who are actually shaping the future.

这就是奥斯陆自由论坛。

That's what the Oslo Freedom Forum is.

从2026年6月起，奥斯陆自由论坛将迎来它的第十八个年头，汇聚来自世界各地的活动家、技术专家、记者、投资者和创造者。

From June 2026, the Oslo Freedom Forum is entering its eighteenth year bringing together activists, technologists, journalists, investors, and builders from all over the world.

他们中的许多人正活跃在历史的最前沿。

Many of them operating on the front lines of history.

在这里，你可以亲耳听到人们如何使用比特币应对货币崩溃，如何利用人工智能揭露人权侵犯，以及在审查和威权压力下构建技术的真实故事。

This is where you hear firsthand stories from people using Bitcoin to survive currency collapse, using AI to expose human rights abuses, and building technology under censorship and authoritarian pressures.

这些不是抽象的概念。

These aren't abstract ideas.

这些都是人们目前正在使用的实际工具。

These are tools real people are using right now.

你将与大约2000位非凡的人物同处一室——异见者、创始人、慈善家、政策制定者，这些是你不仅会聆听、还会共进晚餐的人。

You'll be in the room with about 2,000 extraordinary individuals, dissidents, founders, philanthropists, policymakers, the kind of people you don't just listen to but end up having dinner with.

在三天的时间里，你将体验到震撼人心的主题演讲、关于自由科技与金融主权的实践工作坊、沉浸式艺术装置，以及在会议结束后依然持续的深入对话。

Over three days, you'll experience powerful main stage talks, hands on workshops on freedom tech and financial sovereignty, immersive art installations, and conversations that continue long after the sessions end.

这一切都将在六月的奥斯陆举行。

And it's all happening in Oslo in June.

如果这听起来像是你向往的氛围，那你运气不错，因为你可以亲自到场参加。

If this sounds like your kind of room, well, you're in luck because you can attend in person.

标准票和赞助票可在 oslofreedomforum.com 购买，赞助票提供深度参与机会、私人活动以及与演讲者的小团体交流时间。

Standard and patron passes are available at oslofreedomforum.com with patron passes offering deep access, private events, and small group time with the speakers.

奥斯陆自由论坛不仅仅是一场会议，它是一个理念与现实交汇、由亲历者共同塑造未来的地方。

The Oslo Freedom Forum isn't just a conference, it's a place where ideas meet reality and where the future is being built by people living it.

特雷，最近有一个投资话题频频登上头条，其实它一直就在明处。

Trey There's one investment making the headlines lately that's been hiding in plain sight.

我们最早是在2020年左右发现这个群体的，自那以后，投资者已投入约13亿美元。

We first found out about this group around twenty twenty investors have allocated about $1,300,000,000 since then.

这是一种资产类别，自1995年以来表现优于标普500指数，且与之相关性接近于零——不是黄金、房地产，也不是加密货币。

It's an asset class that's outpaced the S and P 500 overall with near zero correlation since 1995, not gold, real estate, or crypto.

这是一种通常只对超高净值人群开放的策略，其表现独立于其他主流市场。

It's a strategy typically exclusive to the ultra rich that's moved independently of other popular markets.

但现在，你可以访问 masterworks.com/billionaires，投资由班克西、巴斯奎特和毕加索等艺术家创作的数百万美元艺术品的份额。

But now you can go to masterworks.com/billionaires to invest in shares of multi million dollar artwork by artists like Banksy, Basquiat, and Picasso.

Masterworks 在2021年成为独角兽初创公司，由一位连续创业者和顶级百大艺术收藏家领导。

Masterworks became a unicorn startup back in 2021 led by a serial entrepreneur and top 100 art collector.

截至目前，他们已完成了26笔交易，年化净回报率分别为14.6%、17.6%和17.8%，并已支付数千万美元。

They've posted 26 sales to date with annualized net returns of 14.6, 17.6%, and 17.8% with tens of millions of dollars paid out.

作为我们的听众，您可以访问 masterworks.com/billionaires 获取优先权限。

As one of our listeners, you can go to masterworks.com/billionaires for priority access.

网址是 masterworks.com/billionaires。

That's masterworks.com/billionaires.

过往表现并不预示未来收益。

Past performance is not indicative of future returns.

详情请见 masterworks.com/cd 上的重要披露信息。

See important disclosures at masterworks.com/cd.

如果你经营企业，最近很可能也产生过同样的想法。

If you run a business, you've probably had the same thought lately.

我们该如何让人工智能在现实世界中真正发挥作用？

How do we make AI useful in the real world?

因为潜在收益巨大，但盲目尝试进入这一领域风险极高。

Because the upside is huge, but guessing your way into it is a risky move.

通过甲骨文的NetSuite，您今天就能让AI发挥作用。

With NetSuite by Oracle, you can put AI to work today.

NetSuite是超过43,000家企业信赖的头号AI云ERP系统。

NetSuite is the number one AI cloud ERP trusted by over 43,000 businesses.

它将您的财务、库存、电商、人力资源和客户关系管理整合到一个统一的系统中。

It pulls your financials, inventory, commerce, HR, and CRM into one unified system.

而这种互联的数据正是让您的AI更智能的关键。

And that connected data is what makes your AI smarter.

它能自动化日常任务，提供可操作的洞察，帮助您降低成本，同时自信地做出快速的AI驱动决策。

It can automate routine work, surface actionable insights, and help you cut costs while making fast AI powered decisions with confidence.

现在，借助NetSuite AI连接器，您可以使用自己选择的AI工具直接连接到真实的业务数据。

And now with the NetSuite AI connector, you can use the AI of your choice to connect directly to your real business data.

这并非额外附加功能，而是内置在支撑您业务运营系统中的AI。

This isn't some add on, it's AI built into the system that runs your business.

无论您的公司年营收达数百万还是数亿，NetSuite都能助您保持领先。

And whether your company does millions or even hundreds of millions, NetSuite helps you stay ahead.

如果你的年收入达到七位数以上，请免费获取他们的商业指南《揭开AI的神秘面纱》，访问 netsuite.com/study。

If your revenues are at least in the 7 figures, get their free business guide, Demystifying AI at netsuite.com/study.

这份指南免费提供，访问 netsuite.com/study 即可领取。

The guide is free to you at netsuite.com/study.

好的。

Alright.

我们继续回到节目。

Back to the show.

你认为自己为什么能在情感和心理上承受如此高度的专注？

Why do you think you could handle it emotionally and psychologically, the this tremendous concentration?

因为正如我们后面会谈到的，当我查看你最近的Fairhound基金持仓时，你有一只股票占比高达82%，那就是St.

Because now as we'll get to later, I mean, when I looked at your most recent for the Fairhound Fund, you had about 82 in one stock, which is St.

Joe，这个我们稍后会详细讨论。

Joe, which we'll talk about more.

你在企业产品合作伙伴上的仓位很小，不算小，但也不大，还有像伯克希尔和Imperial Metals这类几乎可以忽略不计的持仓。

The tiny stake in enterprise well, not tiny, but not big in enterprise products partners, and then sort of rounding errors in things like Berkshire and Imperial Metals and like.

所以这实际上就像一个两只股票的投资组合，甚至几乎像一只股票的投资组合，很多人看了都会觉得这太疯狂了。

So it's really like a two stock portfolio and almost like a one stock portfolio, which a lot of people would look at and be like, that's insane.

我在想，是你性格中的什么特质，以及你对如何赢得投资游戏的理解，让你采取了这种极度的集中策略。

And I'm wondering, like, what it is in your in your personality and and in your intellectual understanding about how to win the game of investing that that led you to this real ultra concentration.

嗯，将82%的资金投入一家公司确实非常不寻常，你必须理解这种情况是如何形成的。

Well, to have 82% in one company is very unusual, and you you have to you have to understand how that developed.

我的意思是，当我当初买入圣。

I mean, when I when I bought St.

乔，它在费尔霍姆基金中曾是一个3%的仓位。

Joe, it was a 3% position in the Fairholme fund.

随后这些年，这个仓位不断增长，而我在基金取得的巨大成功后，却遭遇了基金份额持有人的大幅赎回。

And then over the years, the position grew, and the huge success that I had in the fund was followed by huge declines in the shareholders of funds.

因此，随着基金规模缩水且该仓位升值，它占基金的比重变得越来越大。

So it became a bigger and bigger position as there was less money in the fund and as the position appreciated.

所以你知道，如果有人赎回基金份额，除非你决定按比例减持——而我并没有这样做——那么剩余的份额持有人就会持有更多基金里剩下的资产。

So as you know, if someone's selling the fund, the remaining shareholders are buying more of what's left in the fund, unless you decide to to sell it on a pro rata basis, which I did not.

我一直长期参与这家公司。

I've, you know, I've been involved in the company for a long time.

我是这家公司的董事长。

I'm chairman of the company.

在过去十到十五年里，我一直在寻找一种方式，使我能够做出一些经得起时间考验的投资。

And in the last ten, fifteen years, I've been trying to figure out a way in which I can make certain investments that potentially can stand the test of time.

我希望这些投资能让我和我的孩子们、甚至孙辈们放心持有，只要可能的话。

That's something that I'll feel comfortable with my children and their children owning to the extent that that is possible.

所以，当你研究美国及全球的财富时，一个有趣的发现是，大部分财富都是建立在房地产、尤其是能产生收入的房地产之上的。

So one study, when you look at wealth in The United States and around the world, it's fascinating to the extent that that wealth is built upon real estate, income producing real estate.

我试图理解其中的原因。

And I tried to understand why.

我最终搬到了佛罗里达。

I ended up moving to Florida.

我了解了St。

I learned about St.

乔公司是由杜邦公司在大萧条时期开发的，曾一度是佛罗里达州最大的土地所有者。

Joe Company, which is developed by DuPont around the Great Depression, who at one point was the largest landowner in Florida.

我观察了迈阿密以及东海岸和那不勒斯西海岸发生的一切。

And I saw everything that was going on in Miami and up and down the East Coast and the Naples, the West Coast.

我认为，类似的事情迟早也会在佛罗里达西北部发生，那里非常像汉普顿，拥有东西海岸的海滩，但佛罗里达西北部的沙丘比汉普顿的要好得多。

And I thought it was just a matter of time that such events would happen in Northwest Florida, which is very very reminiscent of the Hamptons with the East West Beaches, except the dunes are much nicer in Northwest Florida than they are in the Hamptons.

你也在汉普顿有一栋房子。

And you have a house in Hamptons as well.

对吧？

Right?

所以你

So you

是的。

Yes.

是的。

Yes.

是的。

Yes.

我妻子在汉普顿有一套房子，那是她搬去佛罗里达的条件。

My wife has a house in the Hamptons It was her bribe to move to Florida.

她担心自己会不喜欢佛罗里达，所以那套汉普顿的房子是她五十岁的生日礼物，意思是：我们试试佛罗里达吧。

She was worried about not not enjoying Florida, so the house in the Hamptons was her fiftieth birthday present to say, let's give Florida a shot.

万一最糟的情况发生，你们也可以搬去汉普顿。

And worse comes to worse, you you can move to the Hamptons.

真不错。

Nice.

所以你大概是2008年开始买入，然后2009年，到2010年左右就停止购买了。

So so you started buying back in, I think, 2008 and then 2009, and then you stopped buying around 2010.

然后这是一条漫长而曲折的路，和圣。

And then this is a long and winding road with St.

乔。

Joe.

对吧？

Right?

你基本上在2011年把首席执行官赶走了，然后通过进入董事会并选任其他董事会成员，最终持有公司约30%的股份。

Like, you pushed out the CEO more or less in 2011 and ended up owning about 30% of the company's shares in going on the board and and selecting other members of the board.

所以你实际上掌控了自己的命运。

So you really took control of your destiny in a way.

你能谈谈掌控自己命运的重要性吗？我的意思是，这或许部分源于你在西尔斯的那些不顺经历，我们也可以聊聊那些事。

Can you talk about the importance in a way of I mean, I guess this is partly the lesson of your misadventures with Sears, which we can talk about as well.

学会掌控自己的命运有多么重要，尤其是当你要做如此重大的押注时。

The learning learning the importance of having control over your own destiny if you're gonna have a really big bet like this.

是的。

Yes.

你必须对所有股东负责。

And you have to be responsible to all shareholders.

我的意思是，我和那些乔的人之间的争斗在于，他们浪费了股东的钱，他们真的完全不知道自己在做什么。

I mean, my my fight with the Joe people that they were wasting the shareholders' money, they they really did not know what they were doing.

必须理解St. Joe是如何起步的。

Have to understand that how St.

Joe是如何开始的。

Joe started.

St. Joe的股权结构是。

The ownership of St.

Joe的股权基本上属于。

Joe basically St.

我应该说，Joe实际上由两个信托持有：杜邦信托和诺里斯信托。

Joe, I should say, was basically owned by two trusts, the DuPont Trust and the Norris Trust.

因此，杜邦家族一位已故成员的姻亲接管了公司，还有几位高管，但本质上，拥有Joe的是一个慈善信托。

So it was from a DuPont who passed away, his brother-in-law took over a couple more executives, but it it was really a charitable trust, which were the the owners of St.

Joe。

Joe.

而受托人，也就是Joe的董事会成员。

And the trustees the trustees, the directors of St.

乔，他们把它当成自己的私人游乐场。

Joe, they treated it as their own personal playground.

所以我努力劝他们离开，我认为这家公司拥有如此出色的资产，至今依然如此，但他们却在慢慢流失或耗尽这些资源，尤其是在寒冷的季节里，他们必须离开，而公司其实可以用更少的资源运营，必须专注于股东和所有者，每个人都应得到妥善对待。

So I made a concerted effort to ask them to leave, and I thought that this company had such wonderful, wonderful assets and still does, but and that they were slowly given away or burned up when it was cold out, that they had to go and that the company could be run for much less and needed to focus on their their shareholders, their owners, and everyone had to be treated well.

于是我把自己置于这个位置，我想既然如此，不如继续推进——如今的圣乔一年的成就超过了过去十五年的总和，我们正见证着大规模向南迁移的趋势，佛罗里达和德克萨斯正成为热门之地。

So I ended up putting myself in that position, so I thought I might as well carry on and, you know, Saint Joe today is doing more in a year than they've done in ten, fifteen years, and we're witnessing the great migration south now where Florida is the place to be, Texas.

人口迁移的趋势令人惊叹，房地产价值、办事效率、安全性，所有这些因素都在显现，而圣乔……

The the the the, you know, the migration trends are quite amazing, Property values, the ability to get work done, all important issues, safety, it's all coming across, and St.

乔正是这些趋势的主要受益者。

Joe is a major beneficiary of those trends.

你说现在它是美国第三大人口州，并且拥有最快的人口增长率。

You were saying it's it's now the third most populous state The US and has the largest population growth rate.

我认为你提到过，佛罗里达西北部——也就是这里总部所在地——的增长速度甚至比佛罗里达其他地区还要快。

And I think you were saying that Northwest Florida, where where this is based, is growing even faster than the rest of the Florida of Florida.

所以某种程度上，是的。

So in some ways Yeah.

你正在顺应你所说的这场长达数十年的浪潮。

You're aligning yourself with what you've called a a multi decade wave to surf.

这么说公平吗？

Is that fair to say?

是的。

Yes.

我的意思是，我在那里盖房子。

I mean, I'm building a home there.

我不知道能不能说服我妻子搬过去，但我打算试试。

I don't know if I can convince my wife to move there, but I'm gonna give it a shot.

那里非常宜人。

It's very pleasant.

人们喜欢工作。

People like to work.

那里有一种自由主义的自由氛围，同时尊重法律与秩序。

There's there's a sort of libertarian freedom, and there's respect for law and order.

天气非常好。

The weather is fantastic.

生活成本相当合理。

The cost of living is quite reasonable.

你知道的。

You know?

学校系统都在稳步发展。

The school systems are all developing nicely.

基础设施正在建设中，而且运行良好。

The infrastructure is being laid in, and it's working.

公司每年都在取得很好的进展，并且未来有五十年的发展前景——只要人们持续向南迁移，这家公司就有大量的土地和资源可以利用这次人口迁移。

And the company is making very nice progress on a yearly basis and has a fifty year road ahead of it where as long as people keep moving south, the company has a huge amount of land and resources to take advantage of that migration.

从某种意义上说，这与你当年在美林和雷曼等人那里所做的事情，或者你的同行们所做的事情，在哲学上相去甚远。

In a way, it's about as far philosophically from what you were doing or what your peers were doing back in those days at Merrill and Lehman and the like.

对吧？

Right?

我的意思是，这与投机相去甚远，更接近于把投资当作经营企业来看待。

I mean, this is it's about as far from speculation, much closer to viewing investing as running a business.

是的。

Yes.

我也是。

Me too.

你知道吗？

You know?

为了持续前进，我的追求是经营好企业，并更好地理解其中的运作机制。

To keep going, I am my pursuit is towards running the running businesses and to better understand the dynamics.

我认为，投资最好是以最像经营企业的方式来进行。

I think investing is best done when it's most businesslike.

这并不意味着我没有犯过错误，显然我犯过。

That doesn't mean I haven't made mistakes, and clearly I have.

但圣

But St.

乔是一个关于防御、不亏损、抵御通货膨胀、让时间成为宝贵资产以及人口增长的绝佳例子。

Joe is a very good example about defense, not losing, protecting against inflation, making time a valuable asset, population growth.

这其中包含很多要素。

There's a lot of elements to it.

而且要能坦然担任那个说真话的董事长角色。

And feel comfortable being the chairman of saying shit.

我认为我们有一支非常出色的管理团队，他们确实做得很好，持续取得进展。

I think that we have a great management team who, you know, really doing quite well, continuing to progress.

这些成果已经显现出来了。

And it said it's showing.

这些成果体现在，你知道的，

It's showing in the you know?

这个领域就像一张白纸。

The area is a blank canvas.

现在已经在酒店和公寓上体现出来了，以前从未有过，住宅社区正在各地兴起。

It's showing now in hotels and apartments, which were never done, residential communities going up everywhere.

这是一个城镇的发展过程。

It's the development of a town.

这让我稍微想起了《模拟城市》这个游戏，你一开始有一张白纸，必须把所有基础设施都规划好。

Sort of reminds me a little bit remember the the game Sim City, where you had a blank canvas, and I would say you had to you had to lay you have to lay in all infrastructure.

这很有趣，因为根据我的理解，从我阅读的相关资料来看，你通过多种方式降低了投资风险。

It's interesting because in in in some ways, it seems from my understanding, from my reading about it, that you derisked the investment in various ways.

对吧？

Right?

这原本是个亏钱的生意。

It was a money losing business.

所以你更换了管理层。

So you changed the management.

你重组了业务。

You restructured the business.

在某个阶段，公司进行了股票回购。

At a certain point, there was a buyback of stock.

当时有

There was So

我们以非常好的价格回购了公司37%的股份。

we bought a third of the company, 37% of the company back at a very good price.

你知道，公司在企业层面没有净债务，流动性非常充足，杠杆率非常保守，而且业务不断增长，从每年建造100套住宅发展到接近每年2000套住宅和住宅用地，从零公寓发展到超过1000套公寓，从一家小型酒店发展到超过10家酒店，还有俱乐部，数千名会员，以及高尔夫和海滩设施。

There's no you know, they're they're net debt free at the corporate level, you know, plenty of liquidity, very conservatively leveraged, and, you know, building up, going from a 100 homes a year to approaching, you know, 2,000 homes and home sites a year, from zero apartments to, you know, over a thousand apartments to one small hotel to over 10 hotels, you know, a club, you know, thousands of members, there's golf, beach.

这是一个完整的生态系统，圣乔公司非常出色地支持社区，捐赠土地用于国际机场、学校系统或医疗园区。

It's the whole ecosystem, and and Saint Joe does a very good job of helping the community, donating land for whether it was the international airport or for school systems or for a medical campus.

看到它顺利运作真好。

It's nice to see it working.

看到现金流也不错。

It's nice to see the cash flows too.

我觉得这很有趣，因为在某种程度上，它体现了你整个职业生涯中一个更广泛的主题——做一个有韧性的投资者，对吧？努力生存下去。

I I mean, it's interesting to me because in some ways, it gets at this broader theme in your whole career of trying to be durable investor, right, trying to survive.

当我们回望像美林和雷曼这样的公司时，它们都倒闭了。

And it's interesting when we look back at things like Merrill and Lehman, both of them went under.

对吧？

Right?

所以，从某种意义上说，当你思考生存以及雷曼倒闭、美林被救助的教训，以及你如何打造圣乔公司以确保其生存时。

So, I mean, in a way, when you think about survival and the lessons of Lehman's demise, Merrill's rescue, and how you've tried to set up St.

圣乔公司如此设计，以确保其能够生存。

Joe's so that it survives.

这告诉我们，作为长期投资者，究竟该如何真正实现生存？

What what does this tell us about how to actually survive as a long time investor?

也许，如果我是个受虐狂，我不知道，总是后退五步，希望最终能前进得更远。

Well, maybe if I'm a masochist, I don't know, constantly taking five steps backwards in order to hopefully advance much further.

但你知道，现在这关乎我的剩余投资者、我的家人，以及努力建立一些持久的投资，让我无需再为此担忧。

But, you know, this, but, yeah, this now is about, my remaining investors, my family, and and trying to lay in some durable investments that I don't have to that I that I won't have to worry about.

我的意思是，你总是需要研究各种情况，唯一不变的就是变化。

I mean, you always have to study situations, and the only constant is is change.

但房地产已经经历了多代的成功，它最初是一场缓慢的游戏，而且由于最终价值的复杂性，它有点难以理解。

But, there have been multiple generations of success with real estate, and it's it's a it's been an initially a slow game, and it's it's a little hard to understand because of the the end values.

大多数人真的看不到几年之后的事情，五年、十年后，一切都被折现为零。

Most people really can't see beyond a few years, and then after five, ten years, everything's discounted to zero.

但你知道，当你经历十年，你的收益翻了四倍、五倍，而且只用了极少的土地、很小的比例，你就会开始感受到未来可能实现什么。

But, you know, you go through ten years and you, you know, you you quadruple, quintuple earnings, and you do it with using very little, a small percentage of land, you start to get a a sense of what's what's possible in the future.

这不过是迈阿密、劳德代尔堡、萨拉索塔、那不勒斯或任何发展起来的社区曾经发生过的历史。

It's no more than the history of what happened in Miami or Fort Lauderdale or Sarasota or Naples or or any community that's developed.

我给你举个奥兰多的例子。

I'll give you an example of about Orlando.

你知道吗？

You know?

很多年前，一位先生在远早于我出生的时代，几十年前，来到圣乔公司办公室，想见埃德·鲍尔，圣乔公司的首席执行官。

Years and years ago, a gentleman comes into the Saint Joe office way before my time, decades before my time, and wants to talk with the Ed Ball, the CEO of St.

埃德·鲍尔是佛罗里达州一位忙碌而重要的人物。

Joe.

埃德·鲍尔是佛罗里达州一位忙碌而重要的人物。

Ed Ball's a busy, important man in Florida.

他让对方一直等待，等待，再等待，最后这位先生收到了埃德·贝尔送来的一张纸条。

He keeps him waiting, waiting, waiting, and then eventually, this gentleman is passed a note from Ed Ball.

他打开纸条，读了上面的内容。

He opens the note, and he reads it.

纸条上写着：亲爱的迪士尼先生，很抱歉，我们不与游乐园相关的人做生意。

Says, dear mister Disney, I'm sorry, but we don't do business with carnival people.

迪士尼曾想在圣乔公司的土地上建造迪士尼世界。

Disney wanted to create Disney World on Saint Joe's Land.

那片土地拥有海洋、海滩和淡水湖泊。

It had every it had the ocean, the beaches, the freshwater lakes.

那里的地势也很理想。

It had the elevation.

很多人不了解，圣乔公司的土地平均海拔大约在二十到三十英尺之间。

A lot of people don't understand that Saint Joe's Land, the average elevation's, you know, twenty, thirty feet up.

你有海滩，然后是一道悬崖（海湾除外），再缓缓升高到大约七十到一百英尺。

You have the beach, then you have a bluff, except on the bays, and then it slowly rises to about 70 to a 100 feet.

佛罗里达州的最高海拔位于沃尔顿县，那是圣乔县之一。

The highest elevation in the the Florida is in Walton County, which is one of the St.

圣乔的县。

Joe's Counties.

所以沃尔特·迪士尼想明白了。

So Walt Disney figured it out.

这里就是迪士尼世界的理想之地。

This was the place for Disney World.

而鲍尔拒绝了，于是他悄悄开始在奥兰多收购农田。

And Bald said no, so then he quietly started to buy up farmland in Orlando.

剩下的，你知道的，就是那个故事了。

Rest you know the story.

所以，假设你在长期上是正确的，这仅仅是一种时间套利，你比大多数投资者更有耐心。

So so let's say you're right long term, and you this is just a a time arbitrage, and you just have a hell of a lot more patience than most investors.

即便如此，你如何回应那些认为将82%的投资组合集中在一只股票上是不负责任且鲁莽的人呢？这其实是一个很合理的观点。

How even so do you respond to people who cop that it's irresponsible and reckless to have 82% of your portfolio in one stock, which is a very it's a not unreasonable point to make.

对吧？

Right?

不，完全不是。

No, not at all.

我的意思是，我一直在卖出乔。

I mean, I keep selling Joe.

我一直在卖出圣。

I've been selling St.

我多年来一直在卖出乔。

Joe for years and years and years.

我卖出它，它在增长，人们已经从基金中撤资了。

I sell it, it's growing, people have taken money out of the fund.

现在我的关联方持有基金约38%，所以加上基金里的现金，我觉得这并不不合理。

I am now my affiliates own about 38% of the fund, so between 38% plus cash in the fund, I mean, don't find it unreasonable.

最坏的情况可能是，我是唯一剩下的持有圣股的股东。

The worst case may be that I'm the only shareholder left owning St.

乔，但并不是说我买了更多或者一直持有它。

Joe, but it's not as if I bought more or I've been holding it.

我的意思是，我一直都在卖出乔。

I mean, I've been selling St.

乔，试图把它减持，但乔去年表现非常好。

Joe to try and get that down, but St.

乔去年表现非常好。

Joe had a very good year last year.

抱歉。

Sorry.

它占80%。

To It's 80%.

到了某个时候，我会再卖出一些，到时候再说。

At a certain point, I'll sell some more, and we'll see.

股东们不喜欢这样，最后我可能会成为唯一的股东。

Shareholders don't like it, I'll end up being the only shareholder.

但我将继续减轻圣乔的负担。

But I will continue to lighten the load in St.

圣乔，当我找到其他投资机会时，我会开始进行投资。

Joe, and when I find other investments, I will start to make them.

但要知道，圣乔

But, know, St.

圣乔一直是一项繁重的工作，现在终于看到了一些初步的进展。

Joe has been a lot of hard work and just seeing the beginnings of progress.

另一项重要的投资——至少根据我看到的你最近的申报文件，仍然在基金中的是这家企业产品合作伙伴公司，我了解到它供应碳氢化合物及其衍生物等。

The other significant investment, at least when I saw your last filing that's still in the fund, is this company Enterprise Product Partners, which I I gather supplies hydrocarbons and their derivatives and the like.

它拥有大约五万英里的管道、两亿六千万桶液体储存容量和一千四百亿立方英尺的天然气储存能力。

So it's got something like 50,000 miles of pipelines and 260,000,000 barrels of liquid storage and 14,000,000,000 cubic feet of gas storage.

显然，它为碳氢化合物行业提供了至关重要的基础设施。

So, obviously, it's got this very important infrastructure for the hydrocarbon business.

你能谈谈它如何体现了你对企业的投资标准吗？

Can you talk about how that embodies what you look for in a in a business?

现在，企业拥有一个非常可观的收费站。

Now enterprise has a heck of a tollbooth.

它始于五十多年前。

It started fifty odd years ago.

邓肯家族，邓肯先生，

Duncan family, Mr.

据我所知，他最初只有两辆燃气卡车，如今已将公司发展成一家价值750亿美元的企业——虽然他已经去世了。

Duncan with I believe with his two gas trucks, and he's turned it into a well, well, he's passed away now, but the company's a $75,000,000,000 enterprise.

他们基本上构建了一套至关重要的能源运输高速公路系统，将烃类从A点运送到B点。

They basically have a critical highway system of getting hydrocarbons from point a to point b.

这是一家庞大的物流公司。

It's gigantic logistics company.

他们接收、分离、升级、储存，并将产品运送到需要的地方，而且只收取非常低廉的费用。

They take it, separate, they upgrade, they store, they get it to where it needs to be, and they do it for a fee, for a very small fee.

他们诚实高效地完成这一切。

And they they they do it quite honestly and efficiently.

它们将有助于推动更清洁的环境。

They're they will help to lead to a cleaner environment.

它们深度参与了公司的运营流程。

They're very much involved with the the company's process.

企业并不是唯一的例子，但在用天然气替代煤炭和木制品方面确实如此。

And an enterprise isn't the only one, but in the substitution of natural gas for, coal and wood products.

我们的煤炭消耗量比以往任何时候都多。

I mean, we burn more coal than we've ever burned.

我们燃烧的木材也比以往任何时候都多。

We burn more wood than we've ever burned.

我的意思是，仅用天然气这种更清洁的能源替代传统燃料，就能在改善环境方面发挥巨大作用。

I mean, just substituting natural gas, a much cleaner energy source would would be a huge element in cleaning up the environment.

尤其是在全球人口不断增长、世界各地的人都渴望拥有我们这样的生活条件时。

And especially when the world is growing and everybody around the world, they want what we have.

他们追求高品质的生活，而能源消耗与生活质量之间存在着直接关联。

They want a high quality of life, and there's a direct correlation between energy usage and quality of life.

当你研究一家公司时，你实际上是在试图找出它倒闭的原因。

When you research a company, what you're basically trying to do is kill the business.

你正在经历一个不断追问的过程，探究什么可能摧毁这家企业。

You're you're going through this process of asking these relentless questions about what could destroy the business.

所以当你看待像Enterprise或者St.这样的公司时……

So when you look at a business like Enterprise or or or like St.

Joe，当你和我们的听众讨论这些公司或其他公司时，你会提出哪些典型问题？这些问题在判断一家公司能否经受住‘千刀万剐’式的生存考验时，特别有帮助？

Joe, what are the sort of questions that you're asking that our listeners when whether they're looking at these companies or at other companies, the sort of emblematic questions that are really helpful in a process of trying to decide whether a company can survive that process of of of death by a thousand Bruce Berkowitz cuts?

就Enterprise而言，它们拥有非常庞大的可分配现金流，约为每股3.5美元。

Well, in the case of Enterprise, they they have a very large distributable cash flow, about 3 and a half dollars per share.

它们派发的股息分配比例为7.5%，但每股超过2美元。

They pay out seven and a half percent dividend distribution, but over $2 per share.

因此，在过去二十五年里，它们的年均投资回报率平均达到12%到15%。

So they've averaged, you know, twelve, thirteen to 15% per annum on the investment over the past twenty five years.

它们每年都提高股息，并且采取的经营方式使它们在各种价格环境下都能盈利。

They've increased their dividend every year, and they behave in a way that allows them to make money in all price environments.

当你回过头来看，石油、天然气或企业的价格都不重要。

When you go you look back, it doesn't it didn't matter the price of oil, natural gas, or enterprise.

它们基于收费模式，能够获得丰厚的利润。

They're on their fee basis allows them to make a good profit.

所以我说这是个收费站，或者你可以把它看作是有上行空间的年金；无论是在碳捕集方面——从烟道中捕获碳并将其封存地下，最终变成岩石——还是在氨氢价值链上，它们都将处于领先地位。

So it's a that's why I call it a tollbooth, where you wanna call it an annuity with upside, and they're they're gonna be in the they're gonna be in the lead with now carbon sequestration that is capturing of carbon from the flue stack and getting it underground, eventually turns into rock, or whether it's gonna be the, you know, the the ammonia hydrogen value chain.

碳氢化合物不会消失。

Hydrocarbons are not going anywhere.

我们97%的产品都需要它们。

We need them for 97% of all products.

如果你看看药品，比如泰诺、阿司匹林、布洛芬，不管叫什么名字，比如艾德维尔，它们都是石油基的。

If you take a look at medications, Tylenol, aspirin, ibuprofen, you name it, Advil, all the names, they're all petroleum based.

大多数药物都是如此。

Most drugs are.

所以这些产品是必需的。

So the product is needed.

如果要将它用于能源运输，必须以更清洁的形式输送。

It needs to be delivered in a cleaner form if it's going to be used for energy transportation.

这正在发生。

It's happening.

美国已经在减少其排放。

US is already reducing its emissions.

只是世界其他地区希望获得更高品质的能源，现在正在追赶上来。

It's just the rest of the world that that wants a higher quality that's catching up.

企业和其他机构在高效实现这一目标方面做得非常好，帮助美国实现能源独立，尤其是在俄罗斯、乌克兰以及伊朗局势变化的背景下。

And enterprise and others have done a very good job in, efficiently getting there, helping The United States to become energy independent, especially what's going on with Russia, Ukraine, whether it's Iran.

美国实现能源独立是好事。

It's good that The United States is energy independent.

美国能够在能源方面帮助其盟友，这是好事。

It's good that The United States is able to help their friends when it comes to energy.

但纵观历史，能源似乎一直是最终形式的财富或货币。

But throughout history, energy seems to have been the, the ultimate form of wealth or currency.

所以这个产品不会有任何进展。

So the product's not going anywhere.

这绝对是至关重要的。

It's absolutely essential.

我们会使用更多的它。

We're gonna use more of it.

我们会以更清洁的方式使用它，而企业将继续增长。

We're gonna use it in a cleaner way, and enterprise is gonna continue to grow.

还有，你们的7.5%分配比例，现在它是一个有限合伙企业，因此 MLP 有一些投资者需要考虑的特性，但它能带来良好的现金流。

And, you seven and a half percent distribution, now it's a master limited partnership, so there are some attributes to MLPs that investor has to think about, but it's a great cash flow.

无论市场上涨、下跌还是盘整，资金在过去二十五年里都持续流入，未来二十五年前景也相当乐观。

The money comes in in up markets, down markets, sideways markets, at least over the last twenty five years, and the next twenty five years look look pretty good.

这比St.的故事更容易讲清楚。

It's the it's an easier story than St.

乔。

Joe.

我希望我早点理解中游公司的本质。

And, I wish I understood the nature of midstream companies sooner.

但很抱歉。

But, I'm sorry.

有时候，你是如何从一个地方到另一个地方的，这过程有点随机。

It's a bit of a random process sometimes how you get from, from one place to another.

但我对这家公司印象深刻，而且你可以轻松计算现金流，这笔现金非常可观。

But I'm very impressed with the company, and you can count the cash easily, and the cash is quite significant.

你一开始的现金收益率大约是10%，即可分配现金流，而且它每年都会增长。

You're starting off with a 10%, roughly about a 10% cash yield, distributable cash flow, and it's been and it's gonna grow every year.

只要你能做到这一点，这一生就足以过得非常好了。

And that should that's all you need in this life to do very well.

想想过去世界上最富有的人，9%的回报率就足够了。

Think the richest man in the world in days gone by, think 9% was all he needed.

因为我告诉我的孩子们，只要你不亏钱，只要回报超过9%，你就已经做得很好了。

Because I tell my kids, you don't need to do much better than 9% as long as you don't lose.

你无法找到其他许多可以大规模纳入投资组合的业务，这是否反映了我们当前所处的环境？

Does the fact that you haven't been able to find many other businesses or any, really, to include in your portfolio at scale, say something about the environment that we're in at the moment?

这是否说明估值相对较高，机会有限，还是说你只是改变了投资方式，只想押注这两项长期前景极佳的投资？

Does it does it reflect the fact that valuations are relatively high and there are a few opportunities, or is it just that you've changed the way you invest and you wanna you wanna just bet on these two things that are incredibly long running investments?

这里到底发生了什么？

What what's going on here?

我不得不改变我的投资方式。

I've been forced to change the way I invest.

我的投资历史始于富国银行。

I mean, if you look at my history, it was Wells Fargo.

然后是高盛。

It was Goldman Sachs.

接着是美国银行的回归。

It was Bank of America coming back.

还有AIG，之后是房利美和房地美。

It was AIG, and then it was Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

但房利美和房地美在创造了数千亿美元的利润后，仍然处于接管状态，而我在美国最高法院就政府是否有权继续保留房利美和房地美所有收益的问题上输掉了九零亿美元的诉讼。

And but Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were in are still in conservatorship after generating hundreds of billions of dollars, and after I lost 9 zero in the Supreme Court of the United States on the issue of can the government continue to keep all the money that Freddie and Fannie earns?

你不得不得出结论：在高度监管的行业中，所有权可能只是一种幻觉。

And you have to come to the conclusion that in highly regulated industries, there's a possibility that ownership is an illusion.

换句话说，如果一个官僚可以单方面决定，以国家安全或其他任何理由，接管两家资产高达56万亿美元的公司，那么这对你在这些公司中的所有权地位意味着什么？这些公司的股东既无发言权，也无投票权，甚至公司根本不会与股东沟通。

In other words, if one bureaucrat can decide that two companies with $56,000,000,000,000 of assets can be taken in the name of national security or whatever you wanna come up with, then what does that have to say about your ownership position in those companies where the owners had no say, no vote, and where companies don't even talk to the owners.

通常情况下，鉴于当前利率上升，我会大量投资银行股。

It's so, normally, I would be a very heavy investor in banks today given the rising interest rates.

利率上升会导致银行资产和负债的公允价值发生巨大变化，这一点显而易见。

It was pretty obvious what was going to happen with interest rates going up, and the fair market value of banks' assets and liabilities dramatically changing.

但你如何投资一家企业，而这家企业的资产可能在一个监管者恐慌的某一天就被轻易剥夺？

But how do you invest in a business where, again, one regulator on one panicky day can take your assets away from you.

真的吗？

Really?

因此，由于你对房利美和房地美的经历，你的投资方式发生了显著转变。为了让我们听众更清楚，我的理解是你曾以接近清算价值五分之一的价格买入优先股，然后政府在2008年将这两家公司置于接管状态，并实际上拿走了公司约80%的收益。

So there's been a very marked shift in your approach to investing because of your experience with Fannie and Freddie, where you just to fill in our our listeners, my sense is you'd bought preferred stock for something like a fifth of liquidation value, and then the government put them both in conservatorship in 2008 and and basically took something like 80% of the companies.

我可能理解错了。

I'm probably getting this wrong.

然后承诺注入数百亿美元，但到了2011年和2012年左右，他们基本上改变了计划，说不。

And and then promised to inject tens of billions of dollars and then basically changed the plan around 2011 and 2012 and said, no.

不。

No.

实际上，我们就直接把股息当作自己的利润了。

Actually, we'll we'll just we'll just keep the dividends as profits for ourselves.

这基本上就是发生的事情吗？

Is that basically what happened?

是的。

Yeah.

两个政府机构彼此达成协议，如何保留所有资金，并在不确定的时间内将所有股东排除在外。

The government two government agencies did a deal with themself with each other as to how to keep all the money and push out all the owners for a undetermined amount of time.

对。

Yes.

这基本上就是发生的事情。

That's basically, what happened.

在接管状态下，接管人——以房利美和房地美为例，联邦接管人——可以为了不仅保护资产，而且为了国家的最佳利益而采取任何行动，而这实际上对‘接管’的定义略有不同。

They, under conservatorship, a conservator or in the case of Fannie and Freddie, a federal conservative can do whatever in the best interest of not just the estates, but for what's best for the country, which is a turns out to be a slightly different definition of what it means to be in conservatorship.

如果你看看最近的银行接管事件，就会发现这一点。

And if that's the and you you saw it recently with the, bank takeovers.

前一天还风光无限，第二天就消失了。

High flying one day gone tomorrow.

股东们根本没有机会注入更多资金。

The owners did not have a chance to put more money in.

他们对这件事没有任何发言权。

They did not have a say in the matter.

他们只是被告知：你的股权归零了。

They were just told that you're wiped out.

所以，考虑到利率已从零上升到今天的水平，如果银行真的按照市场价值对所有资产进行重估，而不仅仅是投资，还包括贷款。

So if you know, given how interest rates have risen from zero to where they are today, if banks truly marked all of their assets to market, not just their investments, but their loans.

例如，如果美国银行给我一笔3%利率的三十年期住房抵押贷款，那么今天这笔银行持有的抵押贷款价值是多少？

For example, if Bank of America gives me a a home mortgage, a thirty year mortgage for 3%, what is that mortgage that they're holding worth today?

它并不是面值一美元值一美元，但这笔贷款在银行账面上仍按面值一美元值一美元记录。

It's not a 100¢ on the dollar, but that loan, that mortgage will be on their books at a 100¢ on the dollar.

如果监管机构决定进入一个全新的会计监管时期，要求所有资产都按其可售价格重新估值——包括贷款和投资——那么许多主要机构将面临严重的股权赤字。

And if a regulator ever decides that we're going we're entering a new period of regulatory accounting where all assets must be marked to what they can be sold for, both loans and investments, then a lot of major players would be have significant equity deficits.

然后，是否胜出、是否破产、谁生谁死，就只能由一两个人来决定。

And then it would be up to one or two individuals to decide who wins, who loses, who lives, who dies.

这肯定不会由公司的股东来决定。

It surely will not be up to the owners of the company.

所以某种程度上，你之所以成名，是因为你敢于进入那些大多数人不敢涉足的模糊领域，比如在AIG，你成为政府之后的第二大股东；又比如在2009年或2010年左右的美国银行。

So you you in a way rose to stardom by going into these fairly murky situations where most people feared to tread, whether it was AIG where you became the second largest shareholder after the government or Bank of America, I think, back in about 2009, 2010, something like that.

你当时进入的这些公司，要么状况极差，要么正处于破产边缘。

So you were you were going into these companies that were very ugly or general growth properties when it was in going into bankruptcy.

所以，你那时的投资方式，听起来和你现在做的事情很不一样。

So the way that you were investing back then was was very different than what you're doing now, it sounds like.

是的

Yeah.

我当时确实是在计算这些公司的现金流，尤其是在查看银行的收益时——扣除税项和拨备前，你能看到巨大的现金流，而这些现金流将被用于解决它们账面上可能存在的不良贷款，就像一条蟒蛇吞下一只猪，但时间是有限的。

I was literally counting the cash flows of the companies in the case of the banks when you looked at their their earnings, you know, pretax, pre provisioning, you saw, like, huge cash flows, and that those cash flows were going to be needed to resolve bad loans that they may have put on the books, like the proverbial pig going through the python, but there would be a limited amount of time.

与此同时，银行在最困难的时期反而发放了最优质的贷款。

At the same time, banks put on the very best loans during the most difficult of times.

它们收紧了放贷标准，提高了利率，提出了更多要求，并要求更多股权。

They tighten up their standards, they charge more, they ask for more, they want more equity.

经济困难时期，银行反而发放资金，提供优质的、最安全的贷款。

Tough times, banks put on money, good loans, the safest of loans.

因此，你很容易就能看出这一切最终会如何收场，而且结果会相当不错。

So you could easily see how this was all going end, and it was going to end fairly well.

公司本身的盈利能力绰绰有余。

There was more than enough earnings power from the company.

那就是我很多年前写关于富国银行那篇文章的时候。

That's when I wrote the piece on Wells Fargo many moons ago.

你看看他们的税前、拨备前利润，发现他们完全有能力渡过难关。

And you looked at their pre perc you looked at their pre provision, pre tax, and they had more than enough wherewithal to get through their problems.

他们将会走出困境，并实现惊人的盈利。

They were going to come out, and they were going to hit spectacular earnings.

如今，这种说法对银行来说本应成立，除非规则发生变化——但问题是他们的权益与资产比率，如果严格按照10%、12%、15%的权益与资产比例来核算，他们根本达不到要求。

Now the saying should be true of the banks today unless the the you know, unless the rules change or or but there is this problem with their their equity to assets, and if they're required to keep the 10%, 12%, 15% equity to assets, and it was really accounted for properly, they would not have it.

这意味着，你将看到大规模的国有化现象。

Meaning, you would see significant nationalizations across the board.

所以，如果我理解正确，如果我认为规则不会改变——而它们很可能也不会变——那么市场上可能存在一些非常不错的投资机会，我正在关注几家银行。

So if I understood if I didn't if I thought the rules would not change, and they probably will not change, then there are potentially some very good investments out there, and I am looking at a few banks.

但实际情况比金融机构的季度报告所展现的要糟糕得多。

But the situation is a lot worse than portrayed in the quarterly reports of financial institutions.

我在想，过去当你是个赌注经纪人时，某种程度上事情是有规律可循的，但也会有突如其来的疯狂时刻，比如上面的人会说‘别再这么干了’，或者有人决定要揍谁一顿之类的。

I'm I'm thinking in a way about the old days when you were a bookmaker and there was a sort of predictability in some ways, but then there were these moments of wildness where the guy upstairs could say, don't ever do that again, or someone could decide, you know, that they wanted to beat someone up or whatever.

你知道，这就像一场不可预测的游戏。

You you know, it's a sort of unpredictable game.

某种程度上，这里再次发生的情况是，随着房利美和房地美以及银行被接管，你开始意识到这个游戏并不像以前那样可靠和稳定。

It feels like in a way what's happened here again is that with Fannie and Freddie and Banks getting taken over, you start to realize the game's not as reliable and dependable.

规则太不可靠了，我无法再确定自己还拥有优势。

The rules the rule the rules are so unreliable that I can't be sure that I have an edge anymore.

这个类比公平吗？

Is that a fair analogy?

我觉得政府比那位‘上面的人’更不可靠。

I I think the government is less reliable than the guy upstairs.

我再也无法预测局势了。

I I I can't handicap it anymore.

如果有人告诉我，我在美国最高法院就所有权问题输得一败涂地，而且连34360亿美元投资中优先股股东是否有发言权这种事都决定不了，我一定会觉得你疯了。

I thought that it was that it if you told me that I would lose nine to zero in the Supreme Court of the United States over an issue of ownership and whether or not preferred share owners had a say on $3,436,000,000,000 dollars of investments, it would think you'd some say.

这个国家正滑向一条非常危险的斜坡。

It's a very country's going down a very slippery slope.

我知道有些人认为这不得不做，但说真的。

Now I understand some people thought this had to be done, but come on.

他们赚了数千亿美元，现在却成了社会项目的提款机。

They've made hundreds of billions of dollars, and now they're just a piggy bank for social programs.

这这，我

It's it's I

我的意思是，这对政府来说简直就是可卡因。

mean, it's it's crad it's crack cocaine for the government now.

我的意思是，当你想扩大社会保障网络、或者面临选举、或者想表明赤字没那么严重、又或者想每年用数千亿美元做其他事情时，你怎么可能放弃这种每月的收入呢？

I mean, how do you how how are you gonna give up that kind of monthly income when you when you wanna make you know, when you wanna expand this social services net or you have an election coming up or you wanna show the deficit's not as bad or whatever you wanna use tens of billions of dollars a year for.

特雷，我们先休息一下，听听今天赞助商的广告。

Trey Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors.

特雷，不行。

Trey No.

这不是你的错觉。

It's not your imagination.

风险和监管都在加剧，如今客户甚至要求提供安全证明才愿意开展业务。

Risk and regulation are ramping up and customers now expect proof of security just to do business.

这就是为什么Vanta是颠覆性的改变。

That's why Vanta is a game changer.

Vanta自动化你的合规流程，将合规、风险和客户信任整合到一个由AI驱动的平台上。

Vanta automates your compliance process and brings compliance, risk and customer trust together on one AI powered platform.

无论你是为SOC 2做准备，还是在运行企业GRC项目，Vanta都能让你保持安全并推动交易进展。

So whether you're prepping for a SOC two or running an enterprise GRC program, Vanta keeps you secure and keeps your deals moving.

像Ramp和Ryder这样的公司使用Vanta后，审计时间减少了82%。

Companies like Ramp and Ryder spend 82% less time on audits with Vanta.

这不仅仅是更快的合规，更是为增长争取了更多时间。

That's not just faster compliance, it's more time for growth.

我喜欢Vanta让你轻松掌控合规，而不会完全打乱你的工作流程。

I love how Vanta makes it easy to stay on top of your compliance without it taking over your entire workflow.

它只是简化了通常远比必要更痛苦的过程。

It just simplifies something that's usually way more painful than it needs to be.

立即访问 vanta.com/billionaires 开始使用。

Get started at vanta.com/billionaires.

那就是 vanta.com/billionaires。

That's vanta.com/billionaires.

开始一件事不仅困难，而且真的有点吓人。

Starting something new isn't just hard, it's honestly kind of terrifying.

我仍然记得在真正决定做播客之前的那些时刻。

I still remember those moments right before I really committed to podcasting.

半夜醒着，想着如果没人听怎么办？

Lying awake at night thinking, what if no one listens?

如果这件事彻底失败了怎么办？

What if this completely flops?

或者如果我只是在白白浪费时间呢？

Or what if I'm just straight up wasting my time?

尽管克服那种怀疑并不容易，但迈出这一步最终成了我做过的最好的决定之一。

And even though pushing past that doubt was not easy, making the leap ended up being one of the best decisions I've ever made.

我要说，当你有合适的工具相助时，这会帮助很大。

And I'll say this, it helps a lot when you have the right tools on your side.

这就是Shopify发挥作用的地方。

And that's where Shopify comes in.

Shopify是数百万企业的电商平台，占美国电子商务总量的约10%，从家喻户晓的大品牌到刚刚起步的新锐品牌都在使用。

Shopify is the commerce platform behind millions of businesses and about 10% of all e commerce in The US, from massive household names to brands just getting started.

如果你曾经想过，如果我不知道怎么建店怎么办？

If you've ever thought, What if I don't know how to build a store?

Shopify提供数百种精美且即用型模板，完美契合你的品牌风格。

Shopify makes it easy with hundreds of beautiful, ready to use templates that actually match your brand.

或者如果我没时间做所有事情怎么办？

Or what if I don't have time to do everything?

Shopify内置的AI工具能帮你撰写产品描述、标题，甚至优化产品图片。

Shopify's built in AI tools help write product descriptions, headlines, and even enhance your product photos.

是时候用Shopify把那些‘如果’变成现实了。

It's time to turn those what ifs into with Shopify today.

立即前往shopify.com/wsb，以每月1美元的价格注册试用。

Sign up for your $1 per month trial today at shopify.com/wsb.

前往 shopify.com/wsb。

Go to shopify.com/wsb.

就是 shopify.com/wsb。

That's shopify.com/wsb.

亿万富翁投资者通常不会把资金存放在高收益储蓄账户中。

Bill Billion dollar investors don't typically park their cash in high yield savings accounts.

相反，他们常常采用机构投资者常用的被动收入策略——私人信贷。

Instead, they often use one of the premier passive income strategies for institutional investors, private credit.

如今，得益于 Fundrise 收入基金，这一被动收入策略已向所有规模的投资者开放，该基金已吸引超过6亿美元投资，派息率为7.97%。

Now the same passive income strategy is available to investors of all sizes, thanks to the Fundrise Income Fund, which has more than $600,000,000 invested and a 7.97% distribution rate.

随着传统储蓄利率下降，私人信贷在近几年成长为万亿美元级资产类别也就不足为奇了。

With traditional savings yields falling, it's no wonder private credit has grown to be a trillion dollar asset class in the last few years.

访问 fundrise.com/wsb，只需几分钟即可投资 Fundrise 收入基金。

Visit fundrise.com/wsb to invest in the Fundrise Income Fund in just minutes.

该基金2025年的总回报率为8%，自成立以来的平均年总回报率为7.8%。

The fund's total return in 2025 was 8% and the average annual total return since inception is 7.8%.

过往表现并不能保证未来结果。

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

截至2025年1月20日12:30的当前分配率。

Current distribution rate as of twelvethirty onetwenty twenty five.

投资前请仔细考虑投资材料，包括目标、风险、费用和开支。

Carefully consider the investment material before investing, including objectives, risks, charges, and expenses.

更多信息可在fundrise.com/income上的收益基金招募说明书中找到。

This and other information can be found in the income funds prospectus at fundrise.com/income.

这是一则付费广告。

This is a paid advertisement.

好的。

Alright.

回到节目。

Back to the show.

谈谈西尔斯吧，我想那是你近年来经历的另一件非常糟糕的事，你从2005年开始买入，后来成为仅次于埃迪·兰珀特的第二大股东。

Talk talk to me a little about Sears, which was, I guess, the other really ugly thing that you went through in recent years where you had started buying back in 2005 and you became the second largest owner after Eddie Lampert.

在某个时候，你曾进入董事会，然后我认为你在2017年辞去了董事职务，最终西尔斯在2018年申请了第11章破产。

And at one point, were on the board, and then you stepped down from the board in, I think, 2017, and then eventually Sears filed for chapter 11 bankruptcy in 2018.

我在想，那里到底出了什么问题？

And I'm I'm wondering, like, what the what what went wrong there?

你犯了什么错误？

What was the what was the mistake you made?

埃迪·兰珀特犯了什么错误？

What was the mistake Eddie Lampert made?

到底发生了什么？哪些事情本是可以避免的？

Like, what what happened, and what was what what was preventable also?

我对西尔斯有一个非常简单的观点，那就是它是世界上最大的房地产帝国之一，一个失败的零售商也能衍生出一个出色的房地产组合。

Well, I had a very simple thesis about Sears, that it was one of the largest real estate empires in the world, and that from a failed retailer can come a great real estate portfolio.

这就是我的观点，也是我一直在推动的方向。

That was my point, and that's what I was trying to push for.

我觉得这非常合理。

I thought it was very reasonable.

我觉得这是明智的。

I thought it was sensible.

我从未认为西尔斯会成为下一个亚马逊，尽管亚马逊确实成了下一个西尔斯。

I did not think Sears was going to become the next Amazon, even though Amazon did become the next Sears.

但董事会不同意我的观点。

But the board didn't agree agree with me.

埃迪·兰珀特也不同意我的观点。

Eddie Lampert didn't agree with me.

今天，我认为他们正在做 exactly 这件事。

Today, I think that's exactly what they're doing.

他们正试图将所有剩余的房地产改造为富有成效的混合用途空间，这在我看来非常合理。

They're trying to convert all of their remaining real estate into productive mixed use places, which makes tremendous sense to me.

但早些时候就处理掉这十亿美元。

But that processing billion dollars earlier.

但这确实会是一个痛苦的过程，涉及员工等等，但这就是我的简单观点，而零售业的复苏似乎总是在眼前，却从未到来。

But it it would have been a painful process, yes, with employees and so on, but that was my simple point, and there always seemed to be the the recovery of retail always seemed to be right around the corner, but never came.

所以最终，我放弃了。

So eventually, I gave up.

我以为这会很容易。

I I thought it would have been easy.

埃迪·兰珀特是个聪明人。

Eddie Lampert's a smart guy.

我以为他很容易就能明白，真正的唯一出路是专注于房地产，就像过去的亚历山大与亚历山大以及其他零售案例那样，这些零售商曾经是非常受欢迎、土地价值极高的地方。

I thought it would be easy for him to see that the only true defense, you know, would be to focus on the real estate, similar to Alexander and Alexander's and other retail stories of the past, where, you know, these retailers were very popular places, very valuable land.

我们离人们的居住地并不远。

We're not far away from where people lived.

现在你到处都能看到这种情况发生，而这种转变本该发生在西尔斯身上。

And, oh, you're seeing it happen now everywhere, and it should have happened to Sears.

所以某种程度上，你在圣约瑟夫的投资——

So in a way, is your investment in St.

你在那里拥有更多控制权，这是否也是对西尔斯经历的痛苦的一种回应？你心想：我最终对埃迪·兰珀特能做什么并没有太多发言权和控制权？

Joe where you have where you have much more control also a reaction against the pain of Sears, where you're like, I didn't ultimately have that much say, that much control over what Eddie Lampert could do?