RWH042：与盖伊·斯皮尔一起生存与繁荣：第一部分

所以我认为，我可以描述三种不同的情境，在这些情境中，我的决策机制运作方式不同。

So I think that I can describe three different kinds of circumstances where my decision making apparatus works differently.

我认为，当我在审视一个明显没人关注的想法时，我的理性决策能力表现得最好。

So I think that my decision making, rational decision making, works the very, very best when I'm looking at an idea that it's reasonably clear that nobody else is is looking at.

他们已经放弃了它。

They've kind of discarded it.

如果我们看看这些投资，比如阿拉斯加牛奶或维他麦片。

And if we look at, these kind of investments in we've talked about Alaska milk or Weetabix.

它就摆在那儿。

It was just there.

没人关注它。

Nobody was looking at it.

相比之下，如果某个东西价格低廉但未被注意。

By contrast, if and they they were cheap and, not noticed.

我们再来看一种价格低廉但存在争议的情况。

We can then go to something that is cheap but is controversial.

我曾多次遇到这种情况，公司名字现在想不起来了，比尔·阿克曼会介入一些极具争议的事务。

And I've a number of times, and, the name of the company is not coming into my mind right now, where Bill Ackman would get involved in something that was super controversial.

Hubble Life 就是一个例子。

Hubble Life would have been one.

是的。

Yeah.

或者 Valiant 公司。

Or Valiant.

是的。

Yeah.

之前还有一家公司，销售类似法律费用订阅保险的产品。

And there was one previously which sold insurance, kind of like a subscription insurance for for legal fees.

这家公司叫 Prepaid Legal。

Prepaid legal was the company.

关于他们是否对这些长期合同进行了恰当的会计处理，曾引发过非常激烈的争论。

And there was some very serious debate over whether they were accounting for these long term contracts appropriately.

比尔·阿克曼持有一种观点，而市场则持另一种观点。

And Bill Ackman took up one view, and market took another view.

由于这场争议以及媒体和其他地方所呈现的强烈立场，我发现自己很难保持清晰的判断，或者说，我无法将市场带来的情绪、对是否被正确呈现的担忧，与我认为正确的分析区分开来。

And I found it very hard because of the controversy and because of the very strong views being represented in the media and elsewhere to have clarity in my own mind, or I think that I could have I I could not separate the emotion coming from the market and the fears over whether this was being correctly represented or not and the analysis that seemed correct to me.

所以，你可能会有一个未被发现的、非争议性的想法，我对这种分析很有信心。

So you can have, an, you know, an undiscovered idea, noncontroversial, and I'm confident in the analysis.

但一个类似的想法，因为具有争议性，因为出现了会计错误之类的问题，我开始不再信任自己的决策能力。

Then a similar idea, but because it's controversial, because there's been an accounting misstatement or something where, where I I don't trust my own decision making anymore.

我会看着像比尔·阿克曼这样的人，想：他到底是对的，还是只是在夸夸其谈？

And I would look at somebody like Bill Ackman and say, I wonder if he's right or if he's just being, you know, sort of like braggadocious.

然后你还可以进入第三种情况，我认为这时的决策机制又发生了变化。

And then you can go to a third area where I think the decision making apparatus kind of changes again.

所以我认为，我们之前也讨论过，我会持有那些已经上涨数倍的仓位。

So I think that, and we were talking about it, how I'll own a position that has gone up multiple times.

现在，简单来说，我会对这个仓位产生感情，以至于不再理性地评估它从已经上涨四到五倍的水平上再次翻倍或三倍的可能性。

And now, you know, the simple way to put it is I fall in love with the position in a way I'm not being rational about the likelihood that this thing is going to double and triple again from where it's gotten to after having already gone up four or five times.

所以我认为这不仅仅是微妙的问题。

And so I think that it's not just that it's subtle.

我们的运作模式会根据环境而变化。

It's like the modes by which we operate change depending on the circumstances.

为了成为我所能达到的最好投资者，考虑到我自身的条件，我确实需要尽可能深入地理解这种内在的心理状态。

And I think that to be the best possible investor I can be given my endowment of what I have is I really need to learn to understand that internal landscape as well as possible.

因此，我现在可以提醒自己，在与你和办公室同事的对话中提醒我：当这种情况发生时，记住我有容易过于投入、失去理性判断的倾向。

So I can now tell myself and help myself in conversations with you and people in my office, remind me when when this thing is, you know, remind me that, you know, I I I have a tendency to fall in love perhaps a little too much and lose that amount of rationality.

我认为，当存在争议时，对我而言采取谨慎态度是合理的，因为可能不止三种类型。

I think I'm I think it's sensible for me when it's a controversy so give those there are probably more than three different types.

随着我对自己的了解加深，我可能发现有五到六种不同类型。

You know, as I learn more about myself, I probably maybe have five or six.

但到目前为止，我更容易说：这件事有争议。

But up to now, it becomes easier for me to say, look, it's controversial.

我认为这个分析是正确的。

I think this analysis is right.

但我就是不喜欢卷入有争议的情况。

But I just don't like being involved in controversial situations.

这不是我的领域。

It's not my area.

从情感上来说，我不是特别擅长处理这类事。

It's not something that I do well with emotionally.

这可以说是一种明智的做法。

It's kind of like an intelligent thing to do.

当然，当某样东西上涨了五倍或六倍时，我就做不到这一点。

Of course, I can't do that when something's gone up five or six times.

我想，为了总结这个观点，要在情感与非情感之间找到平衡，是一片复杂的领域。

It's I guess, to to bring this idea to a close, the navigating the emotions in between emotional and unemotional is a complex landscape.

再回到比尔·米勒，我觉得当他进行纯粹的财务分析时，他是没问题的。

And just bring it back to Bill Miller, when my sense of him is that when it's pure financial analysis, he's fine.

而市场呢，你知道的，你下达买卖指令时，也基本上是不带个人情感的。

And the market's, you know, you're pushing buying and sell orders, are kind of impersonal as well.

但一旦涉及他有私人关系的人，那就极其困难了，这完全可以理解。

But the minute it impacts people that he has a personal relationship with, that's extraordinarily hard, understandably so.

我觉得你管理自己独特的性格和情绪状态的一种方式，就是尽量减少做决定。

I feel like one of the things that that you've done to manage your your own particular wiring and emotional landscape is that you tend just to make fewer decisions.

所以有时候，当我来编辑你的年度报告时，我会问：‘去年你买过什么吗？’

And so there'll be an entire year where I come to edit your annual report, and I say, so did you buy anything last year?

你会说：‘没有。’

And you're like, no.

去年你卖过什么吗？

Did you sell anything last year?

没有。

No.

这种情况已经发生过很多次了。

And that's happened so many times.

某种程度上，你的默认做法部分是因为你理解复利的重要性以及不随意干预，部分是因为你对自己的情绪持怀疑态度。

Like, in a way, your default almost partly because you understand the importance of compounding and not meddling and partly because you're suspicious of your own emotions.

我觉得你倾向于让事情保持原状。

I think you tend you tend just to leave things in place.

这么说公平吗？

Is that fair to say?

是的。

Yeah.

但我想让你知道，你知道的。

But but I just, you know, I want you to know.

我觉得你其实知道。

I think you do know.

而且我并不是在以一种自我辩解的方式说，这是正确的事。

And and I'm is that it's it's that's not with a self converse sort of like, this is the right thing to do.

我一直在质疑自己。

I'm questioning myself all the time.

你只是因为不频繁调整投资组合而显得理智吗？

Are you just being are you being sensible by not moving the portfolio around too much?

还是说你只是借着这个想法来逃避，因为你害怕做决定，或者因为你懒惰？

Or are you hiding behind that idea because you're afraid of making a decision or because you're lazy?

你知道的。

You know?

而且我在努力理解：我是因为懒惰才不作为，还是因为聪明才保持不动？

And trying to understand, am I being lazy or am I being smart by being inactive?

当然，这取决于投资组合接下来的走向。

And, of course, that depends on where the portfolio goes.

所以我经历过各种情况：资产多次上涨，我因为没动而庆幸；卖了一半仓位后，它又涨了好几倍，我对自己感到生气；资产多次上涨，我什么都没做——所有这些都发生过，所以我一直在质疑自己。

So I've experienced all the range of something going up multiple times and being glad that I left it alone, selling half a position, and then it going up multiple times after that and being angry at myself, something going up multiple times, not doing anything, then so all of those things happen, so I'm questioning the whole time.

但就我而言，证据表明，你干预得越多，回报就越低。

But in my case, the evidence shows that the more you meddle, the less your returns are.

所以我认为我是对的，即使我依然不断质疑，我在对投资组合做出任何操作之前，应该拥有极大的清晰度。

So I think that I'm right, even though I continue to question it, that the clarity that I ought to have before I make on the move a move on the portfolio ought to be enormous.

你应该明白，你不应该因为数字是51比49就做决定。

It should be you know, you shouldn't make a decision because it's 5149.

如果你愿意，你需要等到它涨到8020。

You need to wait till it gets to 8020, if you like.

但你知道，我在做这件事时一直在质疑自己，我想我其实会说，威廉，所以我会说，在我的情况下，环境中有各种各样的变化方式。

But, you know, I'm questioning myself as I do it because I think I I I actually would say, William so so I would say that in my case so so there's there's all sorts of ways in the environment in which the environment changes.

而且，众所周知，关于迁往苏黎世的讨论已经很多了。

And so we you know, it's been talked a lot about this move to Zurich.

我已经逐渐明白，你居住的城市、办公室的具体情况以及通勤方式，真的非常重要。

And I've kind of figured out, yes, the the city in which you live and the particular circumstances of the office and how you get to work, that's really, really important.

但事实上，更深刻的是，办公室所处的人际关系网络。

But actually, even more profound, the relationships within which that office sits.

所以在我个人的经历中，别无选择，我的工作环境经历了从无监管到有监管的根本性转变。

So in my case, I had no choice but my work environment went through a profound transition from being unregulated to regulated.

当你被监管时，最简单的事情就是会有更多人关注你——这本来就应该如此。

And the simple thing that happens when you get regulated is you have a lot more eyes on you as there should be.

金融危机后的一种应对措施是，我们之前没有足够关注各种不同参与者的行为，因此我们不在乎先生。

One of the responses to the financial crisis was we did not we were not looking closely enough at what all sorts of different actors were doing, and so therefore we don't care that Mr.

盖伊·斯皮尔从不做空，也不加杠杆。

Guy Spier doesn't short, doesn't leverage.

我们希望对他以及所有资产超过一定数额的人进行监督。

We wanna have eyes on him and everybody else who has more than a certain amount of assets.

现在和你交谈后，我更清楚地意识到，实现合规不仅仅是建立适当的机制。

And so and and what I realize more clearly now talking to you is that, you know, the the the work of getting regulated is not just, you know, getting the appropriate mechanisms in place.

而是要设计这些机制，使它们能够融入投资决策过程。

It's structuring those mechanisms such that they interface into the investment decision making process.

这是一项持续进行的工作，我们每天都会讨论，以确保我们所需的监管监督与投资风格相契合。

And that is an ongoing thing that we have discussions with on a daily basis, which is kind of making sure that the regulatory oversight that we're we're required to have fits with the investing style.

我认为这对我说来是一个适应过程。

And I think that this has been an adjustment for me.

我认为最终它在任何投资组合调整前都制造了相当多的阻力，可能阻力过大了。

And I think that ultimately what it did was it it it put quite a lot of friction in in in front of any particular portfolio move, probably a little too much friction.

因此，监管带来的阻力加上我天生倾向于不作为，可能使投资组合的变动比应有的更少，这是一个需要调整的过程，我正在做出调整。

So that friction from the regulatory side plus my natural desire to do nothing probably reduced the portfolio movement more than it should have, and it's an adjustment, and I'm making that adjustment.

为了让我们听众更清楚，举个例子，现在由于盖伊受到瑞士监管机构的监管，如果他在投资组合中进行一笔交易，他必须基本上以书面形式向他的同事解释这笔交易的理由。

Just to clarify for our listeners, an example of this would be that now because Guy is regulated by the Swiss authorities, if he makes a trade in the portfolio, he has to actually basically justify the trade more or less in in writing, I think, with a colleague of his.

因此，这就像一个断路器。

And so it acts as a kind of circuit breaker.

所以当盖伊最近在考虑是否应该卖出一些较小的持仓，以腾出资金进行新的投资时，他必须经过这个解释过程，而这个机制就像一个断路器，让你——我认为这在阿里巴巴的例子中体现得很明显。

So when Guy was thinking recently of of, you know, should should I sell some of my smaller positions to free up cash to make a new investment, he had to actually go through this process of of justifying what he was gonna do, and it provides this circuit breaker that made you I think this was in the case of Alibaba.

对吧？

Right?

当你真正开始审视它，并问自己：我真的想卖出它吗？当时发生了什么？

Tell us what happened once you actually started to look at it and say, well, do I really wanna sell it?

基本的监管原则是，我们需要记录下你做出这些决策的原因。

So the basic principle, regulatory principle, is we want a record of why you made these decisions.

这几乎就像很多投资者会说要写日记或个人笔记，而这就像是一个官方版的日记，记录下发生了什么以及为什么这么做。

And it's a very it's almost like I think that the benefit of doing that is that it's like, you know, many investors talk about keeping a diary, personal diary or a personal journal, and this is kind of like an official journal, if you like, of what happened and why did you do it.

我们看到这个操作被执行了，投资组合做出了这个决定。

And we see that this move was made and the portfolio made this decision.

这个流程有没有什么备用方案？

Is there any kind of, like, backup for this?

就我而言，我原本会写交易前检查表，但我们现在改进了流程。

So in my case, I I wrote my pre trade check for actually, we we've modified it.

我不必写下来。

I don't have to write it.

我只需要记录下来。

I just have to record it.

然后我们可以使用Otter之类的工具将其转录成文字。

And then and then we can use, you know, Otter or similar to transcribe it.

经过轻微编辑后，我们就有了书面记录，并且在纸上会有一个标记，表明我已经完成了想要买入的交易的交易前检查。我当时说，我们要建立一个大约3%到4%的仓位，并通过卖出这些较小的头寸来实现。

It gets edited lightly, and we have a written record, and there's a mark on a piece of paper that shows that so I'd done the pre trade check for the thing that I wanted to buy, And I kind of said, look, we're we're gonna make this, like, three or 4% position, and we're gonna sell these things to do it, these smaller positions.

首席财务官回复我说，买入部分没问题，但我们还需要更多内容。

And the CFO came back to me and he said, look, the buy side is fine, but we need a little bit more.

于是我便说，好吧，那我来写一份。

So then I said, okay, fine, I'll write it up.

我更仔细地看了看这些小仓位，然后说：等等。

And I I looked more closely at these smaller positions, and I said, wait a second.

我不愿意以这么低的价格卖出这些。

I don't I don't wanna sell this this cheap.

就好像根本没有。

It's like there's no.

所以我们回去调整了，没有买入4%的仓位，而是买入了我认为2%的仓位，剩下的部分还没买。

So we went back, and instead of buying a 4% position, we bought, I believe, a 2% position, and and the the balance is still to be bought.

所以，是的，它就像一种防止盲目决策的检查机制。

So, yes, it acts as a kind of a check for mindless decisions, if you like.

现在有人会说，如果这只是投资组合中很小的一部分，干脆直接清掉算了。

Now there is an argument for saying that if it's such a small proportion of the portfolio, just clear it out.

但至少那样的话，我得提出充分的理由。

But at least then I would have to make that case.

是的，它们很便宜，但监控这些仓位对我们来说是有成本的，而且我们投入的精力也不再值得了。

Yes, they're cheap, but there is a there is a cost to us to monitoring these positions, and there's a mental energy that we're in we're investing that we no longer want to invest in them.

但他阻止了我，我认为在当时那样做是正确的，或者说，他并不是在阻止我。

But he stopped me, and I believe that that was the right thing to do at that or in a sense, he wasn't stopping me.

他只是说，这没问题，但我需要知道原因。

He was saying, that's fine, but I need to know why.

所以，当然，这很微妙，因为有人可能会说，该死，我就想这么做。

So so, and, of course, it's delicate because somebody could say, damn it, I just wanna do it.

或者这难道不是显而易见的原因吗？

Or isn't it obvious why?

另一方面，你知道，比如威廉和我，我认为主要是通过和我妻子劳里的治疗对话，我们发现，当你感到烦躁时，我们第一反应总是觉得是别人在针对我们。

And on the other side, you know, if somebody I mean, William and I, I think, I've figured out mainly through therapy sessions with Laurie, my wife, that if you're getting agitated, then the first thing we do when we get agitated is we wanna think it's somebody else doing something to us.

他们可能确实是在针对我们，但那不是重点。

And they probably are doing something to us, but that's not the point.

重点是我们对自己做了什么。

The point is what we're doing to ourselves.

所以，如果我当时对那个回应感到烦躁，那本身就是一个值得关注的信号。

And so if I would have gotten agitated at that response, that in itself would have been something to pay attention to.

我没有生气。

I didn't get agitated.

我当时就想，是的，他说得有道理，天哪，快看这个。

Was like, yeah, he's got a good point, and, oh my god, check that out.

不。

No.

我现在不想做那件事。

I don't wanna do that right now.

所以他只是说，给我你的理由，并确保这些理由写在纸上。

So he's just saying, give me your reasons and make sure the reasons are on paper.

此外，从治理的角度来看，这意味着这些交易前检查或官方投资日志会有多双眼睛关注，这也让办公室的其他员工能够说，是的，事情正按应有的方向发展，或者天哪，这里出了点奇怪的问题。

It also, for what it's worth from a governance standpoint, means that there are there are multiple eyes on these pre trade checks or this investment, official investment journal, that also allows, for example, other staff in the office to say, yeah, this is going the way it ought to be going, or my gosh, there's something really weird going on here.

我需要给我们的董事打些电话，说你知道的，他有点失去理智了。

I need to put some phone calls into our directors to say this you know, he's he's lost his marbles, so to speak.

这对我来说是一个全新的世界。

So it's a new world for me.

我一直在学习如何适应这个世界，这个过程让我了解到自己需要成为什么样的人。

I've been learning to live in that world, and it's been interesting for me to learn what I needed to become.

但同时，我身边的人也开始信任我。

But also the people around me have come to trust me.

这个过程很慢，真的需要时间。

It took about it's it's it's a slow process.

特雷，我们短暂休息一下，听听今天赞助商的广告。

Trey Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors.

不。

No.

这不是你的错觉。

It's not your imagination.

风险和监管正在加剧，客户现在要求提供安全证明才能开展业务。

Risk and regulation are ramping up, and customers now expect proof of security just to do business.

这就是为什么Vanta是一个变革者。

That's why Vanta is a game changer.

Vanta 自动化您的合规流程，将合规、风险和客户信任整合到一个由人工智能驱动的平台上。

Vanta automates your compliance process and brings compliance, risk, and customer trust together on one AI powered platform.

无论您是在为 SOC 2 做准备，还是在运行企业 GRC 项目，Vanta 都能让您保持安全并推动交易顺利进行。

So whether you're prepping for a SOC two or running an enterprise GRC program, Vanta keeps you secure and keeps your deals moving.

Ramp 和 Ryder 等公司使用 Vanta 后，审计时间减少了 82%。

Companies like Ramp and Ryder spend 82% less time on audits with Vanta.

这不仅是更快的合规，更是为增长腾出了更多时间。

That's not just faster compliance, it's more time for growth.

我喜欢 Vanta 让我轻松掌握合规状况，而不会让合规占据整个工作流程。

I love how Vanta makes it easy to stay on top of your compliance without it taking over your entire workflow.

它只是简化了通常远比必要更繁琐的事情。

It just simplifies something that's usually way more painful than it needs to be.

立即访问 vanta.com/billionaires 开始使用。

Get started at vanta.com/billionaires.

访问 vanta.com/billionaires 即可开始。

That's vanta.com/billionaires.

开始一件事新东西不仅很难，而且真的有点吓人。

Starting something new isn't just hard, it's honestly kind of terrifying.

我仍然记得在我真正决定开始做播客之前的那些时刻。

I still remember those moments right before I really committed to podcasting.

夜里躺在床上想着，如果没人听怎么办？

Lying awake at night thinking, what if no one listens?

如果这件事彻底失败了怎么办？

What if this completely flops?

或者如果我只是纯粹在浪费时间呢？

Or what if I'm just straight up wasting my time?

尽管克服那种怀疑并不容易，但迈出这一步最终成了我做过的最好的决定之一。

And even though pushing past that doubt was not easy, making the leap ended up being one of the best decisions I've ever made.

我要说的是，当你有合适的工具支持时，事情会容易很多。

And I'll say this, it helps a lot when you have the right tools on your side.

而这就是Shopify发挥作用的地方。

And that's where Shopify comes in.

Shopify 是数百万企业的电商平台，占美国电子商务总量的约10%，从家喻户晓的大品牌到刚刚起步的新锐品牌都在使用。

Shopify is the commerce platform behind millions of businesses and about 10% of all e commerce in The US, from massive household names to brands just getting started.

如果你曾经想过，如果我不知道怎么建店怎么办？

If you've ever thought, what if I don't know how to build a store?

Shopify 提供数百个精美且即用的模板，完美契合你的品牌风格，让建店变得轻而易举。

Shopify makes it easy with hundreds of beautiful, ready to use templates that actually match your brand.

或者，如果我没有时间做所有事情怎么办？

Or what if I don't have time to do everything?

Shopify 内置的AI工具能帮你撰写产品描述、标题，甚至优化产品图片。

Shopify's built in AI tools help write product descriptions, headlines, and even enhance your product photos.

是时候用 Shopify 将这些‘如果’变为现实了。

It's time to turn those what ifs into with Shopify today.

今天就以每月1美元的价格注册试用，访问 shopify.com/wsb。

Sign up for your $1 per month trial today at shopify.com/wsb.

前往 shopify.com/wsb。

Go to shopify.com/wsb.

那就是 shopify.com/wsb。

That's shopify.com/wsb.

十亿美元级别的投资者通常不会把资金存放在高收益储蓄账户中。

Billion dollar investors don't typically park their cash in high yield savings accounts.

相反，他们常常采用机构投资者常用的被动收入策略——私人信贷。

Instead, they often use one of the premier passive income strategies for institutional investors, private credit.

如今，得益于拥有超过6亿美元投资规模且派息率为7.97%的Fundrise收入基金，这种被动收入策略已向所有规模的投资者开放。

Now the same passive income strategy is available to investors of all sizes, thanks to the Fundrise Income Fund, which has more than $600,000,000 invested and a 7.97% distribution rate.

随着传统储蓄利率下降，私人信贷在近几年成长为万亿美元级别的资产类别也就不足为奇了。

With traditional savings yields falling, it's no wonder private credit has grown to be a trillion dollar asset class in the last few years.

立即访问 fundrise.com/wsb，只需几分钟即可投资Fundrise收入基金。

Visit fundrise.com/wsb to invest in the Fundrise Income Fund in just minutes.

该基金2025年的总回报率为8%，自成立以来的平均年总回报率为7.8%。

The fund's total return in 2025 was 8% and the average annual total return since inception is 7.8%.

过往业绩不预示未来表现。

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

截至2025年1月20日12:30的当前分配率。

Current distribution rate as of twelvethirty onetwenty twenty five.

投资前请仔细考虑投资材料，包括投资目标、风险、费用和开支。

Carefully consider the investment material before investing, including objectives, risks, charges, and expenses.

更多信息可在fundrise.com/income的收益基金招募说明书中找到。

This and other information can be found in the income funds prospectus at fundrise.com/income.

这是一则付费广告。

This is a paid advertisement.

好的。

All right.

回到节目。

Back to the show.

我经常引用一句话，非常优美。

There's a beautiful line that I often quote.

听起来可能有点自大。

It sounds really pretentious.

我经常对我的孩子们，亨利和玛德琳，引用这句话，来自尼采，他说天才在枷锁中起舞。

I often quoted it to my kids, Henry and Madeleine, from Nietzsche where he talked about how the the genius dances within chains.

我总是从文学的角度来谈这个，认为拥有某些规则和限制其实很有帮助，比如诗人使用特定的韵律，或者莎士比亚必须用抑扬格五音步写作。

I always talked about it in in terms of of literature that it's kinda helpful to have certain rules and constraints, whether it's a a poet with certain types of of meter or whatever, you think of Shakespeare having to write with iambic pentameters.

对吧？

Right?

但即便如此，你依然能在这种押韵格式中写出精彩的作品。

It's like, And yet somehow you can write amazing things within that rhyme scheme.

而瑞士人对我们的约束，就像是这些枷锁。

And there's something about being regulated by the Swiss that it it's chains.

对吧？

Right?

我的意思是，但你依然可以利用它，比如说，实际上，有一个熔断机制迫使我在写作或口述时解释为什么我要卖出这个仓位，这反而很有帮助。

I mean and yet somehow you can make it work for you by saying, well, actually, it's kinda helpful to have a circuit breaker that forces me in writing or in a dictation to explain why I would sell this position.

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，我并不觉得自己是个有创造力的人，但奇怪的是，和你介绍给我的CeCe一起做节日贺卡时，我每次都玩得特别开心。

I mean, there's there's so I I'm not I don't consider myself a creative guy, but it seems to me the case that actually, funny enough, William, with CeCe that you introduced me to, every time I have so much fun doing these holiday cards.

CeCe是一位很棒的艺术总监，她曾在《时代》杂志担任杰出的艺术总监，我曾与她共事多年，她也为盖伊做了很多设计工作，包括《教育价值投资者》的封面。

CeCe is a wonderful art director who who is a great art director at Time who I worked with for years and has been doing lots of design stuff for Guy, including the cover of the Educational Value Investor.

是的。

Yeah.

没错。

Exactly.

抱歉刚才没解释清楚。

And sorry for for not, explaining.

至于节日贺卡，每次让我觉得特别有趣、和她合作愉快的原因，是我们有一些强有力的限制条件。

And, with the holiday cards, every time what makes the holiday card, and I have so much fun with her, is that we have some powerful constraint.

这些限制阻止了我们按照最初的想法去做。

So that prevents us from doing what we'd originally thought.

而正是在绕过这些限制的过程中，才诞生了一张真正有趣、出色的贺卡。

And then it's in the work of going around that constraint that a really, really fun card comes out.

所以，这种抑扬格五音步的概念，真奇怪，正是这些限制迫使你成为最好的自己。

So this idea of iambic pentameter, how strange that actually having those constraints forces you to become the best version of yourself perhaps.

而且，是的，我想监管工作也是如此。

And, yeah, so I guess that's true of the regulatory work.

我想说的是，你看。

What I wanted to say is that, you know, there look.

是这样吗？

Is it?

在过去的几天里，威廉，你好多次用了‘一个该死的关联接着另一个’这个说法。

It's one a few times, many times, these last few days, William, you've used the the phrase, it's one damned relatedness after another.

这个世界是复杂的。

And the world is complicated.

所以我过去很喜欢分布式办公这种模式。

So I used to love sort of like the distributed office.

所以，我们团队里有一位成员在纽约。

So, you know, we had a member of our staff in New York.

我们有一位员工在PVI。

We had a member of our staff in the PVI.

但在应对新的约束，比如监管约束，设计新系统时，最好集中在同一个办公室，因为你们需要频繁而深入地讨论如何让系统有效运行。

But in responding to the new constraints, for example, from regulatory constraints, working out new systems, far better to be in one office because you wanna have intense and regular conversations about how to make it work.

如果你身处不同的时区，仅靠电话沟通，就很难有足够的机会去摸索出这套系统。

And if you're in a different time zone and you're doing it over the phone, you kind of don't have enough opportunity to figure out that system.

因此我认为，监管约束虽然带来限制，但一旦你理解并应对这些约束，发展出理性的应对方式，反而能为你提供超越他人或卓越表现的机会。

And so I think the regulatory constraints, those constraints provide the opportunity for outperformance or excelling in a certain way once you've kind of grasped them, you've engaged with them, and you're developing a rational response to them.

同时，我觉得在过去，由于我们没有全天候的集中办公，所有员工都分散工作，这种应对方式的形成变得更加困难。我最终得出一个非常实际的结论：这些问题必须在一个办公室里解决，而不是在分布式团队中。

At the same time, I feel like in the past, developing that response was made more difficult by the fact that we didn't have a full office day with all of the staff who were and what I came to was just coming to something very practical, which was that that needs to be worked out in one office, not in a distributed team.

我对那些声称自己能在多个时区和广阔地理区域间高效开展分布式团队工作的人，越来越持怀疑态度。

And I've become very leery eyed of people who say that they can work effectively in a distributed team across sort of multiple time zones and and large geographies.

我认为，集中在一个地方有着巨大的优势。

I think there's an enormous benefit to being in one place.

当所有人都在同一地点时，我们的组织结构就能随着环境变化而不断调整。

And when you're all in one place, your structures can evolve to changing circumstances.

而当你分布各处时，这些结构就会僵化。

And when you're all distributed, they kind of become ossified.

尤其是那些不在核心位置的人，往往意识不到环境正在变化，团队的工作方式也需要随之调整。

Especially people not at the center don't realize that the environment is changing, and the way the team works needs to adapt.

我知道这并不是你向我提出的问题，但对我来说，这很重要，我必须说出来。

So I know that's not a question that you posed to me, but, it came up for me, it was important for me to say it.

现在你看到威廉这样看着我。

And now you get to William's looking at me in such a way.

你用那种眼神看着我，好像在说：明白了。

You're looking me in such a way that goes, okay.

现在我们能回到正题吗？

Now can we bring it?

你已经跑题了。

You've traveled off the reservation.

有趣的是，我和你一样都非常不按常理出牌，我本来准备了六七页的问题，但一开场就完全偏离了原定方向。

What's funny is and I are both so unlinear that I, you know, I started this interview with about six or seven pages of questions, and I immediately veered entirely into a totally different direction.

哦，你做到了。

Oh, so you did it.

那很好。

So that's fine.

是的。

Yeah.

不。

No.

有趣的是，我和盖伊都特别不按线性思维来，我一开始准备了六七页的问题，结果立刻完全跑题了。

So there's There's something wonderfully, characteristic of Guy and my conversations where we'll literally talk for two days without having covered the thing that we meant to cover, and then we'll feel guilty and we'll come back to the main theme.

所以我想问你一个非常重要的话题，这在过去一周里一直是我们对话的核心，那就是

So I did wanna ask you about a a very important topic that has been a really central part of our conversations over the last week, which

这，顺便说一句，是威廉把我们拉回正轨了。

is This, by the way, is William bringing us back on track.

我只是想让你知道，我其实有很多方式可以把话题带偏，但我正极力克制，因为那些方向实在太有趣了。

And I just want you to know that I had various ways in which I could have taken it off track that I'm resisting mightily because they're so interesting.

但说吧

But go

你一直在克制。

far you're resisting.

所以，我认为对我们许多听众和观众来说，一个非常核心且重要的主题是长期复利这个概念。

So a topic that's that's very central and important, I think, to a lot of our our listeners and viewers is this whole game of long term compounding.

你会发现，海蓝宝石是这一问题一个非常有趣的体现和例证。

And aquamarine, you'll find, is a really interesting embodiment and illustration of of this issue.

你在1997年9月设立了它。

So you set it up in September 1997.

这已经是二十多年前了。

So this is a little over twenty six years ago.

在这段时期里，你每年的平均回报率几乎正好是9%。

Over that period, you've averaged almost exactly 9% a year.

截至2023年底，恰好是每年9%。

This is through the end of of twenty twenty three, exactly 9% a year.

标普指数，我想想，让我查一下。

The S and P, I think, was let me check.

年化收益率是8.3%。

It was 8.3% annualized.

MSCI指数是7.1%。

The MSCI was 7.1%.

因此，该基金累计回报率为874%。

So cumulatively, the fund has returned 874%.

所以，它比标普指数高出约157个百分点，比MSCI指数高出371个百分点。

So it's about 157 percentage points ahead of the S and P, three seventy one percentage points ahead of the MSCI.

从某种意义上说，这很好地展示了长期复利的力量。

So in some ways, it's a beautiful illustration of the power of long term compounding.

前几天我们刚算过，发现如果在二十六年前刚开始时投资一百万美元，现在就变成了940万美元。

Like, we were calculating this the other day, and we figured out that a million dollars invested at the start of that journey twenty six years ago is now 9,400,000.0.

对吧？

Right?

所以，在某种程度上，这是长期复利力量的一个惊人例证。

So in some ways, it's an incredible example of the power of long term compounding.

但与此同时，这也让你感到深深的失望，因为你回望过去，想到自己二十六年前刚入行时，受巴菲特影响，以为自己能实现每年15%、20%的回报。

And yet there's also something deeply disappointing to you about it because you look back and you think, you know, when I started my career twenty six years ago and was influenced by Buffett, I thought I was gonna make 15% a year, 20% a year.

而你现在却只有每年9%。

And here you are at 9% a year.

在某种程度上，这是一个关于失望的道德寓言；在另一些方面，它又是一个关于长期复利惊人力量的道德寓言。

And in some ways, it's a morality tale about disappointment, and in some ways, it's a morality tale about the incredible power of long term compounding.

你能谈谈你对复利的力量、以及‘足够好’回报这一整个问题的思考吗？

Can you talk about how you've been thinking about this whole issue of the power of compounding, the power of good enough returns?

这里有很多值得讨论的内容。

There's so much to discuss here.

这让你想到了什么？

What what does this bring up for you?

我能说的第一件事是，威廉，在你来之前我做笔记时用的词是‘苦乐参半’。

So the first thing that I can say is that I think that the word that I used as I was making notes for before you came, William, is bittersweet.

所以这很甜蜜，因为这是复利的作用；但也很苦涩，因为这并不是我最初设定的目标数字，也无法很好地满足我的自尊心。

So it's sweet because it's compounding, and it's bitter because it's not the number that I set out to achieve, and it doesn't feed my ego in a great way.

就像我们之前讨论金融危机章节时那样，我可能本来就会以一种防御的方式去应对，因为这本就是人性自尊的本性。

And I I would say that the same way that we were talking about the financial crisis chapter, I'm I probably approached it in a defensive way anyway because that's the nature of the human ego.

但我足够信任威廉，愿意把这些分享给你。

But I I trusted trust William enough to kind of bring that to you.

某种程度上，我会说，这场对话、愿意坦诚分享，本身就是一种说真话的行为，就像你的人生会有一段伟大的冒险一样。

And in some way, I'd say that this conversation, being willing to share it, is is an act of sort of, like, tell the truth because you'll have a great adventure in life, something like that.

如果你想过一种有意义的生活，那当然要讲真话。

If you wanna live a meaningful life, certainly tell the truth.

这让我回想起在萨拉布·马丹邀请我演讲时，一位非常聪明的谷歌工程师向我提的问题，他说的话大致是这样的，而且他可能有点打断了我。

And I'm brought back to a question that was asked to me by a very smart Google engineer at the talk that I gave at the invitation of Sarab Madhan, where he said something along the lines of and he he probably kind of interrupted.

他在前五分钟就举起了手，说了一些类似这样的话：你怎么知道自己这么厉害？

He put his hand up in the first five minutes, and he kind of said something like, how do you know you're so good?

你到目前为止似乎跑赢了市场，但也许这仅仅是运气。

You seem to have beaten the market up to now, but maybe that's just luck.

而且，再次地，我必须坦诚地说：我们其实不知道，我也不知道。

And and, again, I had to be honest and say, well, we we don't know, and I don't know.

因此，关于这一点，我有很多疑问。

And so there's there's all sorts of questions that I have about that.

所以一种可能是，我只是一个普通的投资者，只是在头几年幸运地跑赢了市场；或者我本是个低于平均水平的投资者，只是暂时幸运地跑赢了市场，之后又长期跑输市场。

So one possibility is that I'm an average investor who was lucky enough in the first few years to outperform the market, or I may be below average investor who was lucky enough to outperform the market for a while, has underperformed the market for a while.

如果我们可以窥见至高者的双眼，他会揭示出：在漫长的时间长河中，我其实并不是一个出色的投资者，或者我确实是个出色的投资者。

And, actually, if we could look into the eyes of the almighty, he will reveal that over the course of the fullness of time, I wasn't a great investor or was a great investor.

我不知道现实究竟是怎样的。

I don't know what the reality is.

我真希望我知道。

I wish I did.

因此，我必须在这种不确定性中行事。

And so I have to operate within that uncertainty.

而且，在这种不确定性之上，我必须以这样的方式来构建我自己的决策以及基金的决策：鉴于我不知道自己究竟是怎样的投资者，也不知道现实会如何发展，我希望做出这样的个人选择——无论哪种情况为真，我最终都能获得良好的结果。

And over above that, within that uncertainty, I have to structure my own decisions and the decisions of the fund in such a way that given that I don't know what I really am like as an investor, and over above that, I don't know how reality would unfold, I wanna position myself in this kind of a personal decision such that no matter which one of those things is true, I will come out in a good way on the other side.

所以，你知道，我们可以构建一个包含许多不同可能性的矩阵。

And so, you know, we could do a sort of matrix of many different possibilities.

其中一个情况是，我还想提到肯·舒伯斯坦的一本书，我相信你曾编辑过这本书——你可能在某个具体的投资决策中拥有良好的决策流程，却因为世界以另一种方式发展而得到糟糕的结果。

In one, I'm actually so there's also referring back to a book of, friend Ken Schubenstein's that I believe you edited, you can have a good decision making process in a specific, say, investment idea and get a bad result because the world unfolded in a different way.

但这并不意味着你的流程是错误的。

And that doesn't mean that your process was wrong.

这仅仅意味着你得到了一个糟糕的结果。

That just means that you got a bad result.

相比之下，你可能在某个投资决策中采用了糟糕的决策流程，所有决定都基于错误的理由，却最终获得了惊人的结果。

By contrast, you can have a terrible decision making process in a particular investment, make the decisions for all the wrong reasons, and end up with a spectacular result.

我们所设想的情景，就像是一个人拿着火柴跑过一个炸弹工厂。

The idea that we have is somebody running with a match through a bomb factory.

你也许能平安穿过，但也可能引发爆炸。

You might get through on the other side, but it might have exploded.

因此，我需要构建我的决策体系，使得无论我是否是个优秀的投资者，或者环境是否对我不利，都能确保结果良好。

So I need to structure my decision making in such a way that given that so I could be a good investor and the environment was not good for me.

我可能是个糟糕的投资者，而环境也不利于我。

I could be a bad investor and the environment was not good for me.

有多种不同的选择。

There's multiple different options.

我需要考虑所有这些可能性，以及世界如何发展的各种不确定性，做出决策，以便最终能拥有一个美好而幸福的生活。

I need to take all of those into account and all of the uncertainty about how the world unfolds and make decisions such that on the other side, there's a there's a good life and a happy life.

昨天我和这位在ValueX这里的人聊天，我认为他写了一本关于遍历性的好书，作者是卢卡·达兰。

And, you know, we were talk I was talking yesterday to this this guy who's here at ValueX, who I think has got a wonderful book, Luca D'Lana, on ergodicity.

我们可以问一个问题：如果你年轻时立志当电影明星，你专注于像娜塔莉·波特曼或格温妮丝·帕特洛那样拥有极其成功的职业生涯。

And we can ask the question, if you have the ambitions as a young person to be a movie star, you know, so you're focused on, I don't know, Natalie Portman or some other Gwyneth Paltrow's had this super successful career.

但你没有看到那些同样优秀、同样努力、同样有天赋、同样热爱电影却未能取得辉煌成就的人，因为世界本质上是极其随机的。

But you don't see all the people who started off who didn't have that super successful career, are equally good actors and actresses, equally hardworking, equally talented, equally faced for cinema because the world is an extraordinarily random place.

所以问题来了：如果你刚开始人生，你是想赌一把那万分之一或百万分之一的机会成为格温妮丝·帕特洛之类的人，还是你也能接受其他所有可能的结果？

So the question becomes, if you're a person starting off in life, do you want to take the lottery ticket, the one in ten thousand or one in a million that you become Gwyneth Paltrow, whoever else it is, are you also willing to live with all of the other outcomes that you might have?

我认为，只要你开心，即使没有得到主角角色，没有实现你梦想中的事业，即使最终生活过得相当平淡，你也能坦然接受。

And I think that, you know, as long as you're happy, if you don't get that starring role and have that lucky thing that you get that career that you're dreaming of, you're also okay if it works out in a pretty boring way.

如果你一辈子都当服务员，或者其他任何工作，那也没关系。

You end up being a waitress your whole life for whatever else it is, then that's fine.

但当我审视Aqua Marine基金的运作，以及我自身、我的家人和我们的投资者的财务状况时，我发现，在某些世界情境下，结果会非常出色，但在其他情境下，我可能会彻底破产。

But when I look at running Aqua Marine Fund and looking at the financial affairs of myself, my family, our investors, an outcome where in some cases of the world, it's spectacular, but in other cases of the world, I blow up.

也就是说，你知道，有这样一类人，比如我职业生涯早期认识的一个人，他把所有投资者的资金都押在一只叫MCF的股票上，并加了杠杆，预期油价会从2美元涨到4美元、8美元、12美元，结果油价却从4美元跌到了2美元。

Meaning, you know and the the kind of person and there are stories like this of somebody that I know from the beginning of my career who put all of all of his investors' assets into one stock, the stock was called MCF, and levered with the expectation that the price of gas would go from $2 from $4 to $8 to $12, except it went from $4 to $2.

他现在已经不再管理基金了。

And he's no longer running a fund.

这对我来说是不可接受的结果。

That's not an acceptable outcome for me.

所有这些，是因为你可能会觉得——我要回到你最初的问题——我认为，在投资世界里，你不应该这样想：我要让我的投资组合以某种方式运作，确保未来二十年年化回报达到18%并大获成功，却忽视了在某些可能发生的现实情境中，这种策略最终可能归零，就像把所有资金押在一只股票上并加杠杆那样。

All of that, because you feel like and I'm gonna bring this back to your original question, I believe, is to say that I don't you know, so so you don't want in the investing world, I believe, to say, I'm gonna act in my portfolio in such a way that I can get my 18% annualized over the next twenty years and be super successful when in some proportion of the realities that may unfold, that turns into a great big zero, a la putting all of your investments in one stock and leveraging it.

因此，那些能让所有可能结果都维持在合理水平的策略，意味着你更有可能获得9%的回报，而不是12%、15%或20%。

And so the strategies that get all of the potential outcomes to a decent result mean that you're far more likely, say, to get 9% rather than twelve, fifteen, 20%.

所以，苦涩中的甘甜在于：生存才是最重要的。

And so the sweet part of the bitterness is that survival is everything.

复利原则的生存至关重要。

Survival of the principle of compounding is everything.

这才是最重要的，而不是实际的年化收益率。

That is the most important thing, not the actual annualized rate of return.

如果其他条件都相同，我能将收益率翻倍或提高两三个百分点，那也没问题。

And, if all other things being equal, I can double the rate of return or increase it by two or 3%, then that's fine.

但这些条件并不相同。

But they're not equal.

所以我不断提醒自己，有时我回头看，却发现情况并不清晰。

And so I'm constantly saying to myself and and sometimes I look at it, and and it's not a clear picture.

所以我可以回头再说，稍后就把话筒还给你。

So I can go back, and and I'll hand the mic back to you in a second.

我可以回顾一下，令人尴尬的是，我在2015年的投资组合中经历过一次破产。

I can go back into so I had a bankruptcy, embarrassingly enough, in my portfolio in 2015.

那是我以某种方式操作了投资组合中约10%的部分，而这种做法并不明智。

That was me acting with a certain proportion of the portfolio, about 10% of it, in a way that was not very smart.

这就像手里拿着点燃的火柴跑过炸弹工厂，结果对我而言并不顺利。

It was a bit like running with a lighted match through a bomb factory, and it didn't work out for me.

就我而言，这并不是投资组合的大部分，但偶尔我会看到一些头寸，它们可能是很棒的企业，但估值却非常高。

And that's not the vast majority of the portfolio in my case, but every now and then I look at some positions that maybe that they're great businesses, but they're very, very highly valued.

于是我问自己：我是不是在不知不觉中，以某种方式构建投资组合，使得它只在世界的某些特定情况下才能大获成功？

And I ask myself, am I am I actually doing a little bit of, you know, constructing the portfolio in such a way that it only works out great in certain versions of the world?

而我们希望它至少在所有可能的世界版本中都能表现得尚可。

And we want it to work out at least okay in all versions of the world.

我觉得我有点拐弯抹角了，但我想我可能已经把这一点说得太多了。

I think I'm kind of mincing my words a little bit, but I think I think I've made the point probably too much.

不。

No.

我们正在触及一个极其重要的问题，过去几天我一直在努力消化和整合这个观点，因为我觉得它极其重要。

We're getting at something that's really profoundly important, and I've been struggling to digest and synthesize this myself over the last few days because I think it I think it's vastly important.

这个想法是，很多人把投资设定成一场赛马，认为关键在于——好吧。

This idea you know, so many people set up the horse race of investing where it's about, okay.

我会获得这些出色的回报，并且跑赢市场。

I'm gonna get these great returns, and I'm gonna beat the market.

但对于大多数人来说，这其实并不那么重要。

And and for most of us, that's not really that important.

我们真正想要的是达到财务安全、财务独立的状态。

Really, what we want is to get to a position where we're financially secure, financially independent.

是否在过去二十六年里比市场高出150个基点、300个百分点，还是20个百分点，或者稍微落后一点，其实都没关系，只要结果是积极的，能让我们抵达终点就行。

It doesn't truly matter whether you beat the market by a 150 points over the last twenty six years or 300 percentage points or or 20 percentage points or if you if you trail, so long as it's, like, a really positive result that's getting us toward the finish line.

所以我觉得你一直在追求的，是对复利而不遭遇灾难——长期复利而不遭遇灾难——这一重要性的深刻理解。

And so I I feel like what you've been working towards is this much greater clarity about the importance of compounding without catastrophe, long term compounding without catastrophe.

我认为你之所以对这一目标如此清晰，是因为从一开始，基金的大部分资金——尽管当时规模很小——就来自你父亲的1400万美元。

And I think one of the reasons you're so clear about this as a goal is that from the very start, a huge portion of the money in the fund, and it was a tiny fund at the beginning, was like a $20,000,000 fund, right, with 14,000,000 from your dad.

他的1400万美元最初就是这么开始的。

Was his 14,000,000 started with.

对。

Right.

所以，你父亲一生作为企业家赚的所有钱，再加上他几位在瑞士的律师朋友等，这些人可能根本没参与过市场投资。

And so it was like your dad's all of the money that your dad had made in his entire career as an entrepreneur, basically, plus a few friends of his who were lawyers and stuff in Switzerland who might not have been invested in the market at all.

亲友和傻瓜。

Friends, family, and fools.

是的。

Yeah.

我是最早的投资者之一，大概在那之后几年，也就是1999年左右。

And I was one of the first investors, like, a little bit after that, probably a couple years after that in around 1999.

我除了这些年和你一起吃过几顿饭之外，根本没做过任何尽职调查。

And so having done no due diligence except had a few meals with you over the years.

因此，仅仅生存下来、达到一个良好的终点、持续复利并留在市场中，对你来说至关重要。

So this priority of simply surviving, of getting to a good endpoint and compounding and staying in the market was hugely important to you.

我认为大多数人并没有考虑过这一点。

And I I don't think this is something that most people think about.

我意识到，只要避免灾难、留在市场中、坚持参与、以足够好的速率持续复利，这一点被严重低估了。

And it strikes me that just avoiding catastrophe and staying in the market, staying in the game, continuing to compound at a at a decent rate, a good enough rate, it's underestimated.

但与此同时，存在一种危险，即基金经理会改变他们所玩的游戏，声称他们原本就是在玩这个游戏，仅仅因为他们在这场游戏中失败了。

But then at the same time, there's a danger that money managers end up changing the game that they're playing, saying that that's the game they were playing just because they failed at the game

超越市场表现。

of outperforming.

他们原本想参与的。

They wanted to play.

对我来说，浮现出来的是一个对我帮助极大的类比，这很有趣，因为我们正好在滑雪胜地，这直接来自卢卡·德兰诺的书。

I mean, what comes up for me and, is an analogy that was so helpful for me, and it's funny because we happen to be at a ski resort, and this is straight from Lucal Delano's book.

所以他问，我们所从事的业务是滑雪，目标是成为这个赛季最成功的滑雪者，当然，有优秀的滑雪者，现在我们从一个希望赢得整个赛季的个体滑雪者的角度来思考。

So he asked so, you know, the name of the game, we're in in the business of, skiing and being the most successful skier for the season, and obviously, there are good skiers, and we're now gonna take the perspective of an individual skier who wants to win the season.

一共有十场比赛，而作为滑雪者，他可以以最快的速度滑雪——这是一场速降赛。

And there are 10 races, and, you know, as the skier, he can he can ski this is a downhill race.

他可以尽全力滑雪，但这会增加摔倒和受伤的风险。

He can he can ski as fast as he possibly can, and there's a higher risk of, crashing and injuring himself.

他也可以比自己的最高速度慢一些滑雪。

And, he can ski slower than his top speed.

他承担了输掉这场个人比赛的更高风险，但降低了受伤并被取消比赛资格的可能性。

And he takes a higher risk of not winning that individual race, but he, reduces the risk that he gets injured and get taken out of the race.

我不会详细讨论概率，但我想我们都能明白，在一天的匆忙、兴奋和滑雪者所承受的压力下，人们往往会想要加速，以赢得比赛。

And I'm not gonna go through the probabilities, but I think that we can all see, and in in the rush and the excitement of the day and the pressures that the skier feels, there's a tendency to wanna push the, speed so you can win the race.

这位滑雪者可能赢得了第一、第二、第三、第四和第五场比赛，但他也在累积受伤的风险。

And the skier may doing that win races one, two, three, four and five, but he's taking a cumulative risk there of injury.

正如卢卡在书中所言，赢得赛季的滑雪者并不是速度最快的那位。

And as Luca puts it in the book, the skier that wins the race is not the fastest skier.

而是那个没有受伤的速度最快的人。

It's the fastest skier that doesn't get injured.

但对个人而言，当你面对观众时，看到有人飞速滑行会非常刺激。

But the individual and you've got an audience, and there it's super exciting to see the guy skiing super fast.

如果发生一场严重的事故，某种程度上反而更令人兴奋。

And it's even more exciting in a way if you get a massive accident.

但从滑雪者的角度来看，如果你能退后一步，告诉自己：我的目标是完成十场比赛，那么他可能会采取不同的滑行方式。

But from the perspective of the skier, if you can just step back and say, my goal is to survive 10 races, then he may ski differently.

因此，我认为这完美地体现了我们作为投资者所追求的目标，而追求单场胜利的压力是巨大的。

And so I think that this beautifully illustrates what we're trying to do as investors, and the pressure to try and win the individual race is just enormous.

顺便说一句，这在生活的方方面面都像一条准则：那些短期看似诱人、当天感觉最优的选择，往往并不利于周、年乃至更长远的规划。

And this, by the way, is is kind of like a a rule for life in all sorts of things where what is short term Expedia and what feels like optimal in the day is not optimal for the week, the year, and and many else.

举个投资方面的例子，我当时在华尔道夫酒店，白山保险正在做一场演讲，首席执行官杰克·伯恩正在台上，而伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司曾资助白山保险收购了一家陷入困境的保险公司，其估值可能仅为账面价值的一半甚至更低。

So and just to take it to an investing example, there I am at the Waldorf Astoria, and White Mountains Insurance is giving a presentation, and Jack Byrne is the CEO, and Berkshire Hathaway has funded White Mountains Insurance to buy a, distressed insurance company, which is probably at half or less of book value.

而如今，尽管这家公司整体股价仍低于账面价值的一半，白山保险却正在进行一次股权融资。

And now while the whole thing is still trading at less than half of book value, White Mountains Insurance is doing an equity issuance.

而杰克·伯恩——正是他将公司注册地迁至百慕大——此刻正穿着百慕大短裤站在台上。

And Jack Byrne, who's redoscent domiciled this company to Bermuda, is standing there in Bermuda shorts.

我当时还是个初出茅庐的年轻人，在融资路演结束后，想向他提一个问题。

And I'm there as a young whippersnapper after the presentation for the issuance and wants to ask him a question.

我对他说：‘杰克，股价这么大的折价，为什么还要融资呢？'

I say, but, Jack, it's trading at such a discount.

这次股权发行会稀释股东权益。

This this share issuance is dilutive.

如果你不进行这次股权发行，我们会赚更多的钱。

We will make so much more money if you don't do this share issuance.

你为什么要这么做？

Why are you doing it?

他用一种温和的眼神看着我。

And and he he basically he looked at me with these kind eyes.

我的意思是，我对他来说什么都不是，但他却全神贯注地盯着我。

You know, I mean, I'm just nothing to him and just, like, total focus on me.

他说，是的，如果一切顺利，我们确实会留下一些钱在桌上。

And he says this, yes, if the world works out perfectly, we would have left money on the table.

但如果情况严重恶化，这次股权发行能确保公司生存下来并安然无恙。

But if the work world works out really badly, doing this equity issuance ensures that the company will survive and do just fine.

我想让你知道，盖伊，这次发行得到了我们在奥马哈的朋友沃伦·巴菲特的认可。

And I want you to know, Guy, that this issuance has the blessing of our friend in Omaha, Warren Buffett.

这只是一个例子，说明沃伦说：别拼命往前冲。

And it's just an example of of, you know, Warren saying, don't race as fast as you can.

游戏的目标是完成这个赛季。

The name of the game is to finish the season.

不要因为不发行股权而冒险，导致无法完成这个赛季。

Don't take the risk by not issuing equity that you might not finish the season.

我们发行股权吧。

Let's issue the equity.

是的，我们的步伐会稍微慢一点，但无论世界如何发展，我们一定会完成这个赛季。

Yes, we're gonna be going a bit slower, but we will definitely finish finish the season no matter how the world unfolds.

这就是一个例子。

So that's an example of that.

当我这么说的时候，我想起了我当初决定留在霍斯黑德的决定，结果那里最终破产了。

And I would just tell you that as I say it, I think of the decision that I made to stick around in in Horsehead, which ended up as a bankruptcy.

在那种情况下，白山公司的类似类比就是，我没有发行股权，因为我希望尽可能多地赚钱。

And in that case, the equivalent analogy in White Mountains is that I didn't do the equity issuance because I wanted to make as much money as I possibly can.

因此，即使只针对投资组合的一部分，这种欲望也极其强烈。

And so the desire to do that, even with a part of the portfolio, is very, very high.

从那一刻的经历，以及阅读卢卡·达兰纳的著作、理解他的滑雪比喻，并看到沃伦·巴菲特所做的决定，我学到的是：在几乎所有情况下，都不要这么做。

And what I learned from that moment and from reading Luca Dallana and, you know, understanding his skiing analogy and seeing the decision that Warren Buffett made is that almost in all circumstances, don't do that.

你知道吗？

You know?

这一点在最近的伯克希尔·哈撒韦年会上也提到了。

And and it came up at the most recent Berkshire Hathaway meeting.

我不记得当时和谁聊的了，但有个人对基威特广场的决策过程相当了解。

I don't know who I was talking to, but somebody was pretty close to the decision making in Kewitt Plaza.

他们说，你无法想象沃伦在思考潜在下行风险上花了多少时间。

And they said, you cannot imagine how much of Warren how much time Warren spends just thinking about the downside.

这在我和克里斯·戴维斯的对话中也出现了，他现在是伯克希尔董事会的成员。

This came up in my conversation with Chris Davis, who who had who's now on the board of Berkshire.

如果你想核实这一点，这真是我最近和克里斯做的播客中一个非常有趣的部分。我当时问他，参加巴菲特和芒格的董事会是什么感觉，他说你根本想不到巴菲特花了多少时间讨论他为保护投资组合而防范的最极端情况，确保公司即使遭遇核攻击、金融危机、脏弹或其他任何可能的灾难也能安然无恙。

If you wanna check this, this is a fascinating part of the the recent podcast that I did with Chris where I asked him what it was like to be in a board meeting with Buffett and Munger, and he was saying, you wouldn't believe how much time Buffett spends talking about the most extreme circumstances that he's guarding the portfolio against, making sure that the company would be okay in the event of, you know, nuclear attacks, financial crises, you know, dirty bombs, whatever whatever it might be.

我觉得这是一个非常有趣的洞察，那就是他们对韧性的极度关注。

I thought that was a really interesting insight that that that focus on resilience.

但有趣的是，巴菲特既能把事情安排得极具韧性，又能对美国运通这样的项目做出极其大胆、高风险的投资——他投入了巨额资金。他是那种罕见的能同时做到这两点的人，但我认为几乎没人能做到这种程度的极致专注。

But what's interesting is Buffett has this ability both to set things up to be incredibly resilient and then to make these incredibly bold, racy bets on things like American Express where he put a huge so he's one of those rare creatures who can kinda do both, but I don't think I don't think almost anyone else can, right, take that sort of intense.

乔·格林布拉特也做过同样的事。

Joe Greenblatt did the same thing.

确实，我认为沃伦在他人生的不同阶段也这么做过。

It's it's true that I think also Warren did it at a different point in his life.

我觉得他现在不会这么做了。

I don't think he'd do that now.

即使他能，现在可能也没办法了，因为这实在太令人着迷了。

If he even if he could, he probably can't now anyway, because it's it's just fascinating.

因为对沃伦来说，他曾经将40%的投资组合都押在了美国运通上，当时正值沙拉油丑闻，这在某种程度上是个有争议的处境。

Because in in Warren's case, 40% of his portfolio in American Express and, you know, salad oil scandal and, in a way, a controversial situation.

我谈过这种争议——其实我不太喜欢说它有争议。

I talked about that sort of contro I don't like there was controversy around it.

换句话说，美国运通的名字当时几乎成了‘杜斯’。

I mean, in a way, American Express's name was Duhz.

而且，他有能力说：实际上，在金融圈子里或许如此，但作为消费品牌，它完全没问题，会成功并生存下去。

And the ability to say, actually, yes, in financial circuits or circles perhaps, but as a consumer brand, it's absolutely fine and it will succeed and survive.

他实际上说了什么，我可能会记错细节，但他大致对美国运通说：这里谁对谁错其实并不重要。

And he actually what he told, I'm I'm gonna get the details wrong, but he kind of said to American Express, look, it doesn't really matter who's at fault here.

直接赔付他们。

Just pay them out.

把这件事翻篇，你们就会没事。

Get this behind you, and you'll do fine.

即使你们完全没责任，你们也只想把这件事了结，因为你们的业务会很好，而且你们负担得起这笔赔偿。

Even if you weren't at fault at all here, you just wanna get this behind you because your business will be great and you can afford to do the payout.

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，我没那么聪明。

I mean, I'm not that smart.

我似乎没有能力做那种事情。

I'm not that able to to to do that kind of thing, it seems to me.

我也不知道，在多大程度上，稍微回溯一下，一个人是如何开始的。就我而言，如果我有机会重来，我非常感激自己现在所从事的工作。

I also don't know to what extent I mean, just rewinding slightly, the the the the the way in which one gets started so in my case, if I could've I I'm very grateful to be doing what I'm doing.

我非常感激我的父亲。

I'm extraordinarily grateful to my father.

我感激他做出了那些决定。

I'm grateful that he made the decisions that he did.

如果我能重新来过，我希望看到，如果我父亲没有把全部流动净资产都投给我，而是说：看，

If I wanted to be if I if I could, like, have my past again, I think that I would have liked to have seen how things would have unfolded if my father had, instead of dumping the whole of his liquid net worth into me, had said, look.

我会分批，每次给一部分。

I'm gonna dribble it out x amount at a time.

我的流动净资产，绝大部分都非常安全，你可以对这部分进行监管。

The the my liquid net worth, the vast majority of it is extremely safe, and you can have oversight over that.

你会专注于用一小部分资金实现高增长，而我会随着时间推移，当我们对它更有信心时，逐步追加投入。

And you're gonna work on growing a small chunk of it at a high rate, and I will add over time as we get more confident in it.

所以，我想，如果当时我有这种安排，我会更愿意去承担更大的风险。

So I I would have I think I would have been more willing to take bigger bets at the time.

我遇到的情况是，有来自三个不同投资账户的1400万美元到账，其中约50%被我投到了五年期债券里，因为我实在太害怕了。

And what happened with me is, I mean, I was given it was it was 14,000,000 from these three different investor accounts that came in, and, like like, 50% of it was in bonds for, like, five years because I was so super scared.

当我第一次为投资组合买入股票——达夫和菲利普斯时，就连我父亲都对我的投入金额之小感到失望。

And when I went and bought my first stock for the portfolio, Duff and Phelps, even my father was disappointed by how little I put into it.

但在1400万美元中，我实际上把大约25万美元投入了达夫和菲利普斯，最终赚了七倍的回报。

But out of 14,000,000, actually, I put about 2 quarter of 1,000,000 into Duff and Phelps and made seven times my money.

你知道吗？

You know?

如果我当时投入100万美元，然后赚了七倍回报，那情况会完全不同——顺便说一句，这整个记录都真实存在。

Instead of putting, say, 1,000,000 in and making seven times my money, which is, by the way, all in the track record.

我完全没有美化或掩饰过这些经历。

It's like I've not varnished that in any way, shape, or form.

没有任何内容被删减或隐瞒。

There's nothing that's been taken out.

有些人可能会说，哦，不如把现金部分去掉，只看股票部分的表现吧。

Some people might have said, oh, but let's remove the cash and just see the performance of the equities.

我根本没有做那些事。

I didn't do any of that.

好了，各位。

Alright, folks.

非常感谢大家收听我和盖伊·斯皮尔对话的第一部分。

Thanks so much for listening to part one of my conversation with Guy Spear.

如果你喜欢这一部分，请务必收听第二部分，现在在你收听播客的任何平台都可以找到。

If you enjoyed it, then please do check out part two, which is available now wherever you listen to the podcast.

在第二部分中，盖伊解释了哪些错误的、自我挫败的行为会阻碍你长期实现财富复利增长，他还具体说明了他有意识避免的常见错误，以及他回避的公司类型。

In part two, Guy explains what kind of misguided, self defeating behavior can prevent you from compounding wealth over the long run, and he specifically explains what common mistakes he consciously avoids and what kind of companies he avoids too.

我们还讨论了与家人和朋友建立牢固关系，作为投资和人生成功的关键。

We also talk about building strong relationships with family and friends as a key to success in investing in life.

我们聊了如何与那些信念和观点与我们相左的人互动，以及为什么揭示自己的弱点而非隐藏它们会更有帮助。

We chat about how to engage with people whose beliefs and perspectives conflict with our own, and we talk about why it's helpful to shine a light on our own weaknesses instead of hiding them.

我们还探讨了金钱在构建真正富足丰盈的人生中所扮演的角色，以及一些可能帮助我们变得更明智的好书。

We also talk about the role that money does or doesn't play in constructing a truly rich and abundant life, and we chat about some great books that have hopefully helped to make us a little bit wiser.

如果你想了解更多关于盖伊的内容，请查看本集和第二部分的节目说明，其中包含一系列有用的资源，包括我们之前在我和盖伊的播客上进行的几次对话的链接。

If you'd like to learn more from Guy, check out the show notes for this episode and for part two, which include an array of helpful resources, including links to several previous conversations that we've had both on my podcast and on Guy's podcast.

与此同时，请随时在Twitter或X上关注我，账号是William Green seventy two。

In the meantime, please feel free to follow me on Twitter or x at William Green seventy two.

和往常一样，请告诉我你对这个播客的体验如何。

And as always, please do let me know how you're enjoying the podcast.

我总是非常高兴能收到你的反馈。

I'm always really delighted to hear from you.

目前，好好照顾自己，保持健康。

For now, take good care, and stay well.

别忘了收听第二部分。

And don't forget to listen to part two.

干杯。

Cheers.

感谢收听TIP。

Thank you for listening to TIP.

请在您喜爱的播客应用上关注《更富有、更睿智、更快乐》，以免错过任何一期节目。

Make sure to follow richer, wiser, happier on your favorite podcast app and never miss out on episodes.

如需获取我们的节目笔记、文字稿或课程，请访问 investorspodcast.com。

To access our show notes, transcripts, or courses, go to the investorspodcast.com.

本节目仅用于娱乐目的。

This show is for entertainment purposes only.

在做出任何决定之前，请咨询专业人士。

Before making any decision, consult a professional.

本节目由投资者播客网络拥有版权。

This show is copyrighted by The Investor's Podcast Network.

未经书面许可，不得进行转播或再次播出。

Written permission must be granted before syndication or rebroadcasting.