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你正在收听TIP。
You're listening to TIP.
大家好。
Hi, folks.
我很高兴再次回到《更富有、更睿智、更快乐》播客节目。
I'm delighted to be back with you here on the Richer, Wiser, Happier podcast.
今天我们邀请的嘉宾是蔡志伟，他是纽约蔡氏资本公司的总裁兼首席投资官。
Our guest today is Christopher Tsai, who's the president and chief investment officer of a firm in New York called Tsai Capital.
自近二十五年前创立公司以来，蔡志伟的业绩大幅跑赢了标普500指数。
Christopher has beaten the S and P five hundred by a wide margin since he launched his firm nearly twenty five years ago.
他是如何做到的呢？
How has he done it?
他持有的投资组合非常集中，大约包含21只股票，通常会长期持有。
Well, he owns a pretty concentrated portfolio of about 21 stocks that he typically holds for long periods of time.
他倾向于投资像亚马逊、苹果、微软、万事达、维萨、丹纳赫、马克尔和好市多这样的行业主导型优质公司，相信它们在长期内会表现优异。
He tends to invest in dominant high quality companies like Amazon and Apple and Microsoft and Mastercard and Visa and Danaher and Markel and Costco, which he expects to outperform over the long run.
他最大也最具争议的投资是特斯拉，早在2020年初，当股市因新冠疫情担忧而崩盘、特斯拉股价暴跌时，他就开始买入。
His biggest and most controversial holding is Tesla, which he started buying back in early twenty twenty when the stock was plummeting at a time when the stock market was crashing because of fears about COVID.
自他买入以来，特斯拉股价在四年间上涨了四倍多。
Since he bought it, Tesla stock has risen more than four times in four years.
在这次对话中，克里斯托弗深入解释了他为何尽管外界对特斯拉及其极具争议的首席执行官埃隆·马斯克充满怀疑，仍对特斯拉保持极度看好的态度。
In this conversation, Christopher explains in-depth why he's still extremely bullish about Tesla despite all of the skepticism surrounding the company and its deeply polarizing CEO, Elon Musk.
无论你对埃隆和特斯拉持何种看法，听克里斯托弗分析这家企业的业务，并解释其他投资者对它有哪些误解，都非常有启发性。
Whatever your views about Elon and Tesla, it's very instructive to hear Christopher analyzing the business and explaining what he thinks other investors have misunderstood about it.
他还解释了为什么他认为人类一再低估了颠覆性技术的影响，无论是印刷机、内燃机还是电动汽车。
And also why he believes that humans repeatedly underestimate the impact of disruptive technologies, whether it's the printing press or the internal combustion engine or electric vehicles.
我们还讨论了克里斯托弗如何应对投资中的情绪压力。
We also discuss how Christopher handles the emotional pressures of investing.
我们谈到了帮助他保持内心平静的三个关键习惯。
We talk about three key habits that help him to maintain his peace of mind.
我们讨论了简单地不打断长期复利过程的重要性。
We discuss the importance of simply not interrupting the process of long term compounding.
他解释了为什么多年来他对分散投资的看法发生了变化，并分享了他从与两位传奇导师彼得·考夫曼和查理·芒格的友谊中学到的经验。
He explains why his views on diversification have changed over the years, and he shares what he's learned from his friendship with two of his legendary mentors, Peter Kaufman and Charlie Munger.
我们还详细讨论了克里斯托弗非凡的家庭背景。
We also talk at some length about Christopher's extraordinary family background.
正如你将听到的，他是著名动量投资者杰拉尔德·蔡的儿子，后者常被誉为美国首位名人基金经理。
As you'll hear, he's the son of a famous momentum investor named Gerald Tsai, who is often described as America's first celebrity fund manager.
当二十世纪七十年代初股市崩盘时，他那支炙手可热的共同基金崩溃，从此声名狼藉。
Gerald became notorious when the stock market crashed in the early nineteen seventies and his super hot mutual fund imploded.
但他后来成为第一家道琼斯工业指数公司的华裔首席执行官，并通过交易积累了巨额财富。
But he then went on to become the first Chinese American CEO of a Dow Jones Industrial company, and he'd made a fortune as a dealmaker.
因此，在许多方面，他取得了巨大的成功。
So in many ways, he was a massive success.
但正如你将听到的，他离过四次婚，并且有大约八年时间没有与克里斯托弗说过话。
But as you'll hear, he also divorced four times and didn't speak to Christopher for something like eight years.
这场对话的特别之处在于，克里斯托弗非常坦诚而深思熟虑地谈论了他家庭复杂而动荡的历史，并分享了他从中领悟到的如何构建真正幸福与成功人生的经验。
One thing that makes this conversation special is that Christopher is wonderfully open and thoughtful in discussing his family's complicated and tumultuous history and sharing what he's learned from it about how to build a truly happy and successful life.
随着这场广泛而深入的对话展开，我想你会明白我为何如此欣赏和钦佩他。
As this wide ranging conversation unfolds, I think you'll see why I've come to like and admire him so much.
无论如何，希望你们喜欢我们的对话。
In any case, I hope you enjoy our conversation.
非常感谢你们的参与。
Thanks a lot for joining us.
您正在收听《更富有、更睿智、更快乐》播客，主持人格林将采访世界顶尖投资者，探讨如何在市场和生活中取得成功。
You're listening to the Richer, Wiser, Happier podcast, where your host, Green, interviews the world's greatest investors and explores how to win in markets and life.
大家好。
Hi, everyone.
今天非常高兴能与克里斯托弗·蔡一起在这里。
I'm very happy to be here today with Christopher Tsai.
克里斯托弗是蔡资本的总裁兼首席投资官，著名的艺术收藏家、好朋友，也是一位极出色的人。
Christopher is the president and chief investment officer of Tsai Capital, the prominent art collector, good friend, and a wonderful human being.
克里斯托弗，见到你真好。
Christopher, it's lovely to see you.
非常感谢你和我们交谈。
Thanks so much for speaking with us.
威廉，见到你真是太好了。
William, it is so wonderful to see you.
我们过去有过许多美好而难忘的开场对话，今天能和你在一起，我感到非常荣幸。
We've had wonderful, memorable, opening conversations in the past, and it's just a privilege for me to be here with you.
威廉，我非常感激能有这段与你共度的时光。
I'm so grateful for this time with you, William.
很高兴见到你。
Nice to see you.
谢谢你。
Thank you.
我真的很高兴能进行这次对话。
I'm really delighted to be doing this.
我想从你的家庭开始聊起，因为你的家庭背景非常有趣，尤其是你父亲杰拉尔德·蔡，他是一位极其成功的著名投资者和首席执行官。
I wanted to start by asking you about your family because you have this fascinating family background, including an immensely successful father, Gerald Tsai, who is a famous iconic investor and a CEO.
但我认为，你们家族经历的种种，最终让你今天来到美国，真是非同寻常。
But it's extraordinary, I think, what your family actually went through that led you to be here today in The US.
我想先问问你家人在中国那段动荡的经历，你的祖母露丝经历了什么，以及你们是如何来到这里的。
And I wanted to start really by asking you about your family's tumultuous experience in China and what your grandmother Ruth lived through and how you all ended up here.
嗯，那是一段非常漫长的历史。
Well, that's a that's a long, long history.
我的祖母非常幸运。
It was very fortunate for my grandmother.
她的名字叫露丝。
Her name was Ruth.
她最终抵达美国后，在教会发表了一次演讲。
She gave a speech to her church when she finally made it over to America.
她住在纽约的斯卡斯代尔。
She lived in Scarsdale, New York.
她演讲的标题是《关于她在香港、中国和美国岁月的回忆》。
And the title of her speech was reminiscences of her time in Hong Kong, China in The United States.
如果没有那场演讲，我不会像今天这样了解这么多。
Without that speech, I would not have known as much as I know today.
正如你所提到的，我祖父母为了让我父亲和他妹妹来到美国，经历了很多艰辛，我由衷感激他们所做的一切牺牲。
What I know is, as you alluded to, my grandmother and my grandfather went through a lot to get my father to America, his sister to America, and I'm truly grateful for all the sacrifices that they made.
举几个例子，大概是上世纪三十年代末，日本军队占领了中国北方。
To give you a couple of examples, it was, I guess, in the late nineteen thirties when Japanese troops took over Northern China.
我祖母非常希望把我父亲送出国外，但这并不容易。
My grandmother really wanted to get my father out of the country, and it wasn't easy.
获得出境签证并不容易。
It wasn't wasn't easy to get an exit visa.
没人知道这件事，但她伪造了我父亲的护照。
Nobody knows this, but she forged my father's passport.
我父亲出生于1929年，她设法把‘9’改成了‘8’，让他提前一年离开了中国，但这个过程并不轻松。
So he was born in 1929, and somehow she made the nine look like an eight, got him out of the country one year early, but it wasn't an easy process.
她还需要钱来支付学费。
And she needed money as well to help pay for the tuition.
于是她开始从事房地产交易，因为当时似乎不需要执照就能做房地产买卖。
So she started trading real estate because you didn't need a license at the time, apparently, to trade real estate.
据我所知，她的人脉相当广泛。
And she was fairly well connected from what I understand.
所以她从这个领域开始做起。
So she started in that area.
她赚了一些钱，做房地产交易，后来最终成为上海证券交易市场上的股票、债券和商品交易员。
She made some money, traded real estate, eventually became a trader of stocks, bonds, and commodities on the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
她是一位先驱，因为她是第一个在 Shanghai Stock Exchange 交易大厅进行交易的女性。
She was a pioneer in the sense because she was the first woman to trade on the floor of the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
这一切都发生在中国各地的国际租界陆续形成的时候。
This was all happening when various international concessions in China were being formed.
当时有荷兰租界、葡萄牙租界、意大利租界和英国租界。
So there was the the Dutch settlement, the Portuguese settlement, the Italian settlement, the British settlement.
为了让我父亲和他妹妹能继续上学，他们不得不在不同的租界之间搬来搬去。
And in order to keep my father and his sister in school, they had to move around from different settlements.
所以我认为，我们很难理解这一点。
So it's hard for us, I think, to understand that.
但我从这篇演讲中了解到，在自己国家内被迫不断搬迁是极其屈辱的。
But from what I've read in this speech was that it was incredibly humiliating to be forced to move around within your own country.
然后，你知道，在她积累了一些钱之后，她在中国买了一个农场，离上海不远。
Then, you know, after she had accumulated some money, she bought a farm in in China, not far from from Shanghai.
我认为是在四川。
I believe in in Sichuan.
一天晚上，有人敲门，来的是共产党当局。
And one night, there was a knock on the door and the was the communist authorities.
共产党当局说，你们只有一晚的时间搬离，第二天就得离开这块地。
And communist authorities said you have, like, a a night to vacate day to vacate the property.
我们要没收你们的土地。
We're confiscating your land.
所以她在积累了一笔财富之后，却被剥夺了所有财产，不得不从头再来。
So she was stripped of her possessions after she had accumulated money, and she had to kind of start from scratch.
所以他们经历了很多。
So they went through a lot.
我的祖母和祖父曾多次被分开，每次长达十年左右。
And my grandmother and my grandfather were separated for multiple periods of, like, ten years each.
当孩子们成功抵达美国后，她与孩子们也一度分离。
She was separated from her her children once the kids made it over to America.
这是一段漫长而漫长的分离史，还曾多次被中国当局审问。
So it's a long, long, long history of separation, of being interrogated by Chinese authorities.
她与美国有着某种联系，因为她的丈夫杰拉尔德·蔡——不是我父亲，而是我父亲的父亲——曾在福特汽车公司工作。
She had this kind of connection with America because her husband Gerald Tsai, not my father, but my father's father Gerald Tsai worked for Ford Motor Company.
所以他们早已与一家美国公司有联系，之后我父亲就去了美国。
So there was already this connection to an American company, then my father went over to The States.
于是，露丝奶奶被共产主义当局每天审问三小时，持续了一年多。
And so grandma Ruth was then interrogated for three hours a day for over a year by the communist authorities.
这整个过程简直是一场小灾难。
There's a little whole whole ordeal.
不用说，当所有人最终团聚时，那是一个无比喜悦的时刻，而那时已经过去了许多年。
And needless to say, like, when everybody was eventually reunited, it was a just a joyous, joyous occasion, and that was years, years later.
那是一段极其紧张的时期。
It was an extraordinarily intense time.
我前几天读到相关资料时发现，在大概两年半到三年的时间里，你的祖母露丝一直在股票交易所买卖股票、黄金和
I I I was reading about it the other day, and there there was this period, I guess, of two and a half, three years where your grandmother Ruth was trading stocks and gold and
是的。
Yeah.
其他商品。
Other commodities on the stock exchange.
然后，基本上日本入侵了当时的上海公共租界——那是一个相对自治的区域。
And then, basically, the Japanese invaded the Shanghai International settlement, which was kind of an autonomous region, at the time.
我想那时它主要由英国和美国控制。
I guess it was it was more or less controlled by the British and the Americans.
尽管日本早在1937年就已占领了上海，但你仍拥有这样一个可以基本正常生活的避风港。
And so even though the Japanese had occupied Shanghai a few years earlier in 1937, you'd had this kind of oasis where you could just about live normally.
然后交易完全停止了。
And then trading just gets halted completely.
因此，这是一个引人深思的例子，当你研究历史时，你会意识到世事多么动荡，以及我们每个时代都多么容易受到不确定性和变化的影响。
And so it's a fascinating example where you realize when you study history just how tumultuous things are and just how much we're subject to uncertainty and change in every era.
我想知道，你家族历史中的这种不确定性感，外部环境如何突然破坏市场、摧毁经济、打乱家庭、颠覆一切，这些是如何影响了你对世界、对生活以及投资的看法的？
And I was wondering how that sense of your family's history, the sense of uncertainty, the sense of external circumstances that can come up and ruin markets, ruin economies, upseat families, overturn everything, how that's affected your view of the world of life of how to invest?
关于这一点，有几点我想说。
Well, a couple of things on that.
重要的是要记住，我父亲出生于1929年，而这一切发生时他大约十岁。
So important to remember, my father was born in 1929, and this was all happening when he was roughly 10 years old.
对吧？
Right?
所以他当时已经足够大，能够记得那些事。
So he was old enough to remember that.
如果你出生在动荡的时代，但年纪太小，就不会记得某些事情。
You know, if you're born in tumultuous times and you're too young, you're not gonna remember certain things.
他那时已经足够大，能够记住那些事。
He was old enough to remember that.
因此，当我还是青少年时，他能够跟我讲述他在中国的生活。
And consequently, he was old enough to talk to me when I was a teenager about his life in China.
当然，我在一个更加优越、稳定的环境中长大，即使到现在，我也无法完全理解他所讲述的内容。
Of course, growing up in a much more privileged, stable environment, even today, like, I'm not able to fully grasp what he spoke about.
但我认为，我有足够的认知去理解，我的祖父、祖母和父亲，他们为了让我过上今天这样的生活做出了巨大的牺牲——我的童年没有被颠沛流离。
But I think I have enough knowledge to understand that my grandfather, my grandmother, my father, they've made extreme sacrifices to allow me to live the kind of life that I'm living today, where I wasn't uprooted in my childhood.
我没有被迫从一个家搬到另一个家。
I wasn't forced to move from home to home.
我不用担心炸弹会落下，或者会发生什么。
I didn't have to worry about a bomb dropping or what was gonna happen.
我没有被切断与新闻的联系。
I wasn't cut off from from the news.
我没有被切断与朋友的联系。
I wasn't cut off from my friends.
对吧？
Right?
所以我非常感激他们为我所做的一切。
So I'm totally grateful for for the everything that they've done for me.
我明白，他们当初创造那笔初始资本有多艰难，正是这笔资本让整个家庭能够取得今天的成就。
And and I understand, like, how hard it was for them to create that initial kind of pot of capital that allowed the whole family to kind of do what they what what it's what it's done.
这种资本保值的理念，很早就深植于我心中，让我明白保值有多么重要。
And this idea of, like, capital preservation, it was instilled in me very early, like how important it is to preserve capital.
我们可以谈很多关于资本保值、复利，以及避免在人生中——不仅是生活上，还有财务上——倒退回去的重要性。
And we can talk, like, a lot about preservation of capital and compounding and the importance of, you know, not having to go back to go in life and in in in in with not just your life, but with money.
但这种资本保值的理念，早在我很小的时候就深深印在我心里了。
But this idea of capital preservation was instilled in me at a very, very early age
而且
and
尤其是通过父亲给我讲述的他童年经历，以及他和父母所面临的种种困难。
and certainly through these stories that my father told me about his life growing up and the difficulties that him and his mother and and father faced.
当我研究你们家族的故事时，我觉得他们必须具备极强的适应能力，这一点也非常引人入胜。
I thought it was fascinating also as I studied your family's story to realize how incredibly adaptable they had to be.
你以前讲过一个关于你祖母在农场处理表层土壤的精彩故事，能再讲讲吗？
So there there was this amazing story that you've told before about what your what your grandmother did, for example, with the topsoil in the farm?
你能讲讲这个故事吗？
Where can you tell that?
这真是一个绝佳的例子，展现了她有多么坚韧、强大和富有创造力，正是她的努力才让你今天能站在这里。
Because it it's such a it's such an interesting example of how, feisty and formidable and resourceful she had to be really to get you in this position that you're in today.
是的。
Yeah.
完全正确。
Totally.
在谈表层土壤的故事之前，我先讲一个简短的故事，其实我今天才刚刚了解到这个细节。
One quick story before we talk about the topsoil story, and I actually just learned about it today.
我以前一定读过，但为准备这次对话，我重新阅读了我提到的祖母所作的演讲。
I must have read it before, but as I was preparing for our talk, I was reading the speech that I had mentioned that my grandmother gave.
我偶然看到一段记载，说她小时候特别想去寄宿学校，因为当时寄宿学校是上海或周边地区最好的学校。
And, I came across a little section about how when she was just a child, you know, she she really wanted to to go to boarding school and get because the boarding schools were the best schools in Shanghai or around Shanghai at the time.
但她的父母不希望她去。
But her parents didn't want her to go.
她的祖母对她说，如果你太有文化，就永远找不到丈夫。
And her grandmother said to her that, if you're too educated, you'll never find a man.
你能相信吗？那时候的时代背景和现在有多不同？
Can you believe, like, how different the times were then?
但她坚持要去寄宿学校。
But she fought to go to boarding school.
她是怎么做到的？
How did she do that?
她把自己锁在房间里，绝食抗议，直到获得批准。
She locked herself in her room and refused to eat until she was given the okay.
这种倔强啊，她最终如愿以偿，进入了与蔡英文夫人同一所学校的顶尖学府。
So this kind of feisty oh, and and and she she she got her way, and she wound up going to the same school that madame Tsai Kaufman went to, a very prestigious school in in China.
但这种倔强的性格一直伴随着她。
But that kind of feisty mentality stayed with her.
所以说到土壤的故事，有一天晚上，中国当局敲响了她的门。
So to the topsoil story, so the Chinese authorities knock on the door one night.
他们说，你必须搬离这块她多年来省吃俭用准备购买的土地。
They say, you know, you have to vacate the the property that she had been saving up to buy for years.
这块土地最有价值的部分是表层土壤。
The vote the most valuable part of the land is the topsoil.
于是她没有与当局抗争。
So she didn't put up a fight with the authorities.
她说她会照办。
She said she'll do as she's asked.
但她在当局即将没收土地的前一晚，雇了一群人把所有的表层土壤都铲走并卖掉，以收回部分投资。
But what she also did was that the night before they they they were gonna confiscate the property, she hired a bunch of guys to strip all the soil off, the topsoil, and sell it so she could recoup some of her investment.
这件事没人知道，但据称她把这笔钱拿走了。
And this nobody knows, but apparently, she took that money.
她买了珠宝，后来离开中国前往香港时，把珠宝戴在头发上。
She bought jewelry, which she eventually put in her hair when she left from China and eventually got her exit visa to go to Hong Kong.
所以她成功把钱带到了香港。
So she was able to take the money the the money with her to Hong Kong.
太惊人了。
Amazing.
太惊人了。
Amazing.
你小时候和她相处了相当长的时间。
And you spent a fair amount of time with her as a child.
对吧？
Right?
因为她活到了93岁。
Because she died at 93.
所以我想知道，当你回望她对你的影响，以及她小时候教给你的那些事，有没有什么对你至今仍有帮助的，无论是在投资方面，还是在生活其他方面？
So I was wondering what when you look back on the influence that she had on you and the things she taught to to you as a kid, Is there anything that you've carried forward with you that's been helpful to you either as an investor or in life beyond investing?
并不是说投资之外就没有生活。
Not that there is life beyond investing.
她是个很棒的厨师，那时我可能大约十岁左右，甚至可能更小。
Well, she was a great cook, and I must have been maybe, like, 10 or 10 years old or something like that, maybe even younger.
我就坐在她旁边。
And I'm sitting around her.
顺便说一下，她住在一个非常简朴的公寓里。
She lived in a very modest apartment, by the way.
她本可以拥有任何她想要的家。
Like, she could have had any home she wanted.
到她住在斯卡斯代尔的时候，我父亲已经赚了很多钱。
My father had already made plenty of money by the time she was living in Scarsdale.
但她选择留在斯卡斯代尔那套简朴的公寓里，那实际上是保障性住房项目的一部分。
But she chose to stay in her modest apartment in Scarsdale, as actually part of the projects.
是的。
Mhmm.
它们并不是世界上最差的公寓，但确实是公共住房项目的一部分。
They they weren't, like, the the worst apartments in the world, but they were part of the projects.
我去过那里很多次。
I was there many, many times.
所以我坐在她那张小餐桌上，那是一张方形的桌子。
So I'm sitting at this her little dining table, and it's a a square one.
她正在做我最爱吃的几道菜。
And she was making some of my favorite dishes.
她看着我，说：你知道吗，看看这张桌子。
And she looked at me, and she said, you know, look at this table.
我本该买一张圆桌的。
I should have bought a round table.
她说：在人生中，为什么要做一张方桌，而不是圆桌呢？
She said, in life, why be a square table when you can be a round one?
她谈论的，我想，是我所指的意思，她直觉上了解戴尔·卡耐基。
She was talking about, I think, what I mean, she intuitively knew Dale Carnegie.
对吧？
Right?
她懂得如何与人相处。
She knew how to deal with people.
她知道尖锐的态度毫无意义。
She knew that it didn't make sense to be abrasive.
这种心态，这种与人相处的智慧，实际上帮助她获得了出境签证。
And that kind of mentality, that understanding of how to deal with people actually helped her get her exit visa.
举个简单的例子，当她接受审讯时，我前面提到过，据我了解，她每天被审讯三个小时，持续了一年左右。
So just a quick example, when she was being interrogated, I mentioned earlier that she was being interrogated for, like, three hours a day for about a year from what I understand.
有一天，房间里的一名男子显然说：听说中国的孩子吃不上饭，你怎么看？
Well, one day, the one of the guys in the room apparently said, you know, there are there are rumors about the Chinese children not having access to food.
你怎么看？
What do you think about that?
于是她拿出她胖乎乎的孙子孙女的照片，说：看看我的孩子。
And so she pulls out photos of her plump grandchildren, and she says, look at my children.
他们看起来瘦吗？
Do they look skinny to you?
据说，他们顿时安静了。
And apparently, they shut up.
哦。
Oh.
所以她非常擅长与人打交道。
So she was very good with people.
还有关于为什么要做一张方桌，而不是适应圆形的这种教训，就像戴尔·卡耐基在《如何赢得朋友与影响他人》中讲的那些道理。
And that lesson about, you know, why be as a a square table when you can be around one, the lessons of Dale Carnegie in how to win friends and influence people.
我认为这些教训都非常好，值得在自己的生活中适当借鉴和运用。
I think they're all very good lessons to to, you know, appropriate and apply it in one's own life.
因此，她在如何思考与人交往、建立人际关系方面，对我产生了深远的影响。
So she's was totally influential to me in in how I think about, you know, dealing with interacting with building relationships with people.
她显然也对你的父亲杰拉尔德·蔡小产生了巨大影响。
She also had a huge impact, obviously, on your father, Gerald Tsai junior.
我想深入聊聊他，因为他是个非常引人入胜的人物。
And I I wanted to talk about him in some depth because he's such a fascinating figure.
对于不了解他的人，简单介绍一下：他如克里斯托弗所说，生于1929年，2008年去世。
And for people who don't know, just a brief snapshot of him, he he was born in 1929, as Christopher said, and died in 2008.
他是第一位成为道琼斯工业平均指数成分公司CEO的华裔美国人。
He was the first Chinese American to become the CEO of a Dow Jones Industrial Average Company.
他做过一些大事，比如收购了史密斯巴尼，并将其更名为普利梅里卡，将其打造成一家金融服务业巨头，后来卖给了桑迪·韦尔，后者最终将其发展为花旗集团。
And he did things like he bought Smith Barney and changed the name to Primerica, turned it into a financial services giant that was sold to Sandy Weil, who eventually turned it into Citigroup.
我记得克里斯托弗曾经告诉我，他总共做过一百多笔交易。
So he did over a 100 deals, I remember Christopher telling me once.
但我最感兴趣的其实是他的投资生涯——他的公开投资生涯似乎很早就结束了，大概在三十岁出头。
But I'm most interested actually in his investment career that ended sort of his public investing career, I guess, ended relatively early, probably in his early thirties.
但他是一位极具标志性和传奇色彩的人物，某种程度上，他是他那个时代的凯茜·伍德。
But he was such an iconic legendary figure and in some ways was sort of the Cathy Wood of his time.
无论是好的一面还是坏的一面，这都像是一个复杂而引人入胜的黑色故事。
And and so both both the good and the bad, I mean, it's like a really complex, interesting, noir story.
你能跟我们讲讲他的投资生涯吗？他是如何成为全国第一位名人基金经理的，我觉得？
Can you tell us about his investment career and how he came to be, in some ways, the first celebrity fund manager in the country, I think?
是的。
Yeah.
我的意思是，今天很难再想象有哪个基金经理能像他那样真正成为名人。
I mean, it's it's hard to think about, like, real celebrity fund managers today to the same degree.
我的意思是，他当时显然上过很多媒体报道。
I mean, he had apparently, like, the articles.
我记得他的照片登上了《商业周刊》的封面。
His I think it was on the cover of of of Businessweek.
他还出现在《新闻周刊》上。
He was in Newsweek.
媒体把他当作一位名人形象来报道。
The press spoke about him as this kind of celebrity figure.
顺便说一下，他留着一条马尾辫。
He had a ponytail, by the way.
所以他塑造了自己的个人形象。
So, he had his he had kind of crafted his own image.
在基金管理界，他算得上是个另类，因为你要知道，那时候机构、养老基金、银行的信托部门都极其保守。
He's a bit of a of a of a boy within the world of fund management because you have to understand back then, you know, the institutions, the pension funds, the trust departments of banks were super, super conservative.
他们的关注点几乎全是电力公司、燃气公司、铁路公司，都是非常非常稳定的企业。
I mean, their their their kind of focus was on electric utility companies, gas companies, railroads, you know, very, very stable kinds of businesses.
而我父亲却几乎全身心投入于成长型公司。
And here, my father comes in, and he focuses almost entirely on growth companies.
他交易这些公司的方式也非常独特。
And the way he trades them was unique.
他的一位密友名叫约翰·罗森沃尔德。
So there's a guy by the one of his close friends was John Rosenwald.
约翰·罗森沃尔德曾是贝尔斯登的副主席。
John Rosenwald was vice chair of Bear Stearns.
他现在是摩根大通的副主席。
He's currently vice chair of JPMorgan.
我至今仍和约翰保持着联系。
I'm still in touch with John today.
约翰在我父亲的葬礼上发表了讲话。
John spoke at my father's funeral.
但约翰和我父亲做了第一批真正的大宗交易。
But John and my father did the first real block trades.
他们会一起买入这些成长型公司的大量股票，真正地推动市场波动。
So they would go in and they would buy huge blocks of these growth companies and really, really move markets.
当外界得知我父亲正在买入某一家公司时，这些公司的股价就会飙升。
And when news got out that that my dad was moving into one particular company, these companies would would soar.
相反，当消息传出他可能要卖出时，这些股票就会暴跌。
And conversely, when he news got out that he might be selling, these stocks would would plummet.
所以他确实极大地影响了市场，并颠覆了机构投资者只投资于公用事业公司和更稳定、更成熟企业的保守观念。
So he he really moved markets, and he shook up this institutional conservative mindset about investing just in kind of utility companies and more stable, more established businesses.
他最早是在富达资本基金做到这一点的。
And he did that at Fidelity Capital Fund first.
所以爱德华·约翰逊 senior 在我父亲大约29岁的时候，让他接管了富达资本基金，当时富达投资还很小。
So Edward Johnson senior gave my father when he was, I think, 29 or so, around that time, The role of running the Fidelity Capital Fund, Fidelity Investments was pretty small at that time.
他们的资产管理规模大概……我不记得确切数字，但我猜可能只有五千万到一亿美元左右。
They'd be like I don't know the exact figure, but I'm guessing maybe 50,000,100 million in AUM.
是的。
Yeah.
就这么多。
Like that.
到今天可能已经增长到4.5万亿美元了。
To maybe 4 and a half trillion today.
所以这真的是非常早期了。
So this is really early.
对吧？
Right?
也就是说，克里斯托弗的父亲基本上离开了波士顿大学——他父母送他去的地方——于1952年加入富达，担任分析师，然后在大约29岁时创立了克里斯托弗提到的富达资本基金。
This is so he I mean, Chris Christopher's dad basically leaves Boston University where his parents had sent him and and joins Fidelity in 1952 as an analyst and then starts this aggressive growth fund that Christopher mentioned, the Fidelity Capital Fund, at the age of about 29.
而且规模很小。
And it's tiny.
刚开始只有1200万美元，然后增长到3.4亿美元。
It's like $12,000,000 and then grows to 340,000,000.
他成为了富达的总裁，然后大约在1965年离开富达，创办了一个叫曼哈顿基金的项目，我想这是在露丝的鼓励下进行的。
And he becomes the president of Fidelity, And then basically leaves Fidelity around 1965 and launches a thing called the Manhattan Fund, I think with encouragement from Ruth.
这正好处于牛市的顶峰。
And so this is kind of at the peak of the bull market.
你能告诉我们后来发生了什么吗？
Can you tell us what happens?
因为某种程度上，这可以说是‘狂热年代’的一个典型代表，与你我刚开始对投资产生兴趣的九十年代末期颇为相似。
Because in a way, it's like it's it's a sort of really important emblem of the go go years that were not dissimilar, I guess, to the late nineties when you and I were starting to become fascinated by investing.
实际上，你从还在娘胎里就开始对投资着迷了，而我是在九十年代末才开始对它产生兴趣的。
Actually, you were fascinated by it from base basically the womb, but when I was getting fascinated by it in the late nineties.
是的。
Yeah.
所以给我们讲讲你爸爸在曼哈顿基金发生了什么吧。
So tell us the context of what what happened to your dad at the Manhattan Fund.
在谈曼哈顿基金之前，先简单问一下，他为什么离开富达？
Well, before we get to Manhattan Fund, just quickly, so why did he leave Fidelity?
这一直是我问他的一件事。
That that was always a question that I had for him.
因为据我所知，他是富达的25%股东。
Because from what I understand, he was a 25% owner of Fidelity
哇。
Wow.
要知道，当时富达管理的资产是501亿美元，听起来没现在这么惊人。
Which, you know, back then when they had $50,100,000,000 under management, sounds it's it's less impressive than it is now.
对吧？
Right?
但他想要最高职位，于是他去找了资深的埃德·约翰逊，埃德告诉他：你永远不可能坐上最高位置，因为我的儿子内德会接任。
But he wanted the the top role, and Ed Johnson, the, you know, senior, was he he approached Ed Johnson, and Ed Johnson said, you're never gonna have the top role because my son, Ned, is gonna take over.
这就是我所了解到的发生的事情。
That's that's what I understand to have transpired.
你提到我祖母对这些决定有影响，他几乎在做每一个决定前都会和母亲商量。
And you mentioned my grandmother being influential in these decisions, and he spoke to his mother about almost every decision that he made.
这上百笔交易，尤其是他在富达的这个职位。
These 100 plus deals, particularly this this role at Fidelity.
我父亲一直想主导全局。
And my dad always wanted to to run the show.
所以这正是他离开的原因。
And so that's really why he left.
此外，他早已遍访全国，无数次往返于各地区经纪商之间，走遍数百座城市，在富达任职期间建立自己的声誉，结识了全国各地的经纪人和经纪商。
Plus, he had circled the country, I mean, countless times, going to all these regional broker dealers, traveling to, you know, hundreds and of cities, building his reputation while he was at Fidelity, getting to know all the brokers and broker dealers throughout the country.
因此，当他准备离开富达自立门户时，已经拥有了这样的网络资源。
So when he was ready to leave Fidelity to start his own thing, he had already the kind of network.
于是他离开了富达，创办了曼哈顿基金。
So he leaves Fidelity, launches Manhattan phone.
所以当你今天开车进入曼哈顿时，会经过特雷博伦桥，紧接着就是FDR高速公路，这条公路现在已更名。
And so as you're driving into Manhattan today, you go over the the Tribor Bridge onto just before the FDR, which is now renamed.
路上有一块巨大的广告牌，你知道的，那些沿着高速公路排列的巨大广告牌。
And there's a big billboard and and and, you know, these big billboards that align the highway.
当我还在世的时候，我父亲就在你进入曼哈顿时能看到的那块巨大广告牌上做宣传。
So my father had that big, big billboard as you come in from when I was standing.
他为曼哈顿基金做了大量广告。
He had, you know, advertisements for Manhattan Fund.
他到处都做了宣传。
He advertised it all over the place.
因此，这些广告加上他的人脉，让曼哈顿基金在启动时就获得了巨额资本。
So the advertisements plus his relationships allowed Manhattan Fund to launch with a huge amount of capital.
他们启动时筹集了约2.5亿美元的资金，远超他原本预期的金额，成为当时美国共同基金历史上最成功的募资案例。
So they launched with about 250,000,000 of capital, which was multiples of what he expected to raise and was the most successful offering in in American mutual fund history at the time.
他在富达拥有卓越业绩记录后，赶上了牛市，推出了曼哈顿基金，他一向非常擅长把握买卖时机——无论是靠本事、运气，还是两者兼有，很可能就是两者兼有。
So he launched his Manhattan fund after a great performance record at Fidelity into a bull market, and he was always very good at timing his purchases and sales, whether that be skill, whether it be luck, whether it would be whether it was a combination of both, which probably was a combination of both.
无论如何，他在这一点上非常出色。
Regardless, he was very good at that.
更多的资金涌入该基金，他决定通过出售管理公司来退出，这家公司是蔡管理与研究公司。
And more capital flew into the fund, and he decided to exit by selling the management company, which was Tsai Management and Research.
这是一家为曼哈顿基金提供管理服务的公司。
That was a management company for Manhattan Fund.
他在市场顶部将公司卖给了CNA金融公司。
He sold it to CNA Financial right at the top of the market.
当然，我们知道之后发生了什么。
And, of course, we know what happens afterwards.
还有其他一些动量型经理，因为他被归入了动量派，比如两位弗雷德——弗雷德·卡，而他们后来都消失了。
There were other momentum types of managers because he gets labeled with the Momentum crowd, the two Freds, the Fred Carr, and and they they disappeared.
但我的父亲与众不同，他把出售所得的资金投入了一个完全不同的领域——创办企业。
But my father was unique in the sense that he took his capital from the sale, and he went into entirely different direction, which was building businesses.
但他的声誉在某种程度上一直困扰着他，这当然是毫无疑问的。
But the the the reputation kind of dogged him in a way that obviously For sure.
困扰着他。
Plagued him.
我想读一读我最喜爱的作家的作品。
And I I wanted to read something by one of my favorite writers.
这是乔·纳塞拉，当我还是个年轻记者的时候，每当我准备写一篇特稿——一篇长篇杂志特写，我的惯例总是先读乔在《财富》杂志上写的文章，因为这样我能慢慢领悟，哦，原来一篇好故事是这样写的。
This is Joe Nacera, who when I was a young journalist, I before I would write a feature story, a long magazine feature story, my ritual was always to read stories that Joe had written for Fortune because I could kinda get in my mind, oh, here's how a good story is written.
因此，在我二十七八岁到三十出头的时候，他一直是我心目中杰出杂志作家的典范。
So he was sort of my model of a great magazine writer in my late twenties and early thirties.
事实上，他曾编辑过我于2001年左右为《财富》杂志撰写的一篇关于比尔·米勒的八九页人物特写。
And he actually edited a sort of eight or nine page profile of Bill Miller that I did for Fortune back in about 2001.
所以，当你的父亲2008年去世时，《纽约时报》总会做一项年度专题，回顾当年去世的最重要人物。
And so when your father died in 2008, The New York Times always does this annual feature about basically the greatest people who died that year.
于是，乔被请来撰写一篇题为《追风投资者》的文章。
And so Joe was brought in to write a piece called The Go Go Investor.
他将你的父亲描绘为一个时代的象征——20世纪60年代牛市中那段辉煌的‘追风’岁月。
And he talked about your father as this symbol of an era, the great go go years of the 1960s bull market.
他将他描述为一个象征，就像迈克尔·米尔肯成为20世纪80年代垃圾债券过度投机的象征，亨利·布洛杰特成为互联网泡沫的象征一样。
And he described him as becoming this symbol in much the same way that Michael Milken became the symbol of the junk bond fueled excesses of the 1980s and Henry Blodgett, the symbol of the Internet bubble.
接着他谈到，从1958年到1965年，你父亲经历了一段非凡的巅峰时期，我只想念给你听几句话。
And then he talked about how basically from between 1958 to '65, your dad had was on this incredible hot streak, and I'm just gonna read you a few sentences.
他写道，人们被他大胆涉足当时热门股票的行为所震撼，比如宝丽来和LTV，这些股票似乎只涨不跌，而他似乎总能精准把握市场的每一次波动。
He says, people were dazzled by his squashbuckling forays into the glamour stocks of the day like Polaroid and LTV, which seemed only to go up and up and his seeming ability to time the market's every move.
观看他的反应真是一种美妙的体验。
It was a beautiful thing to watch his reactions.
当时富达的老板爱德华·约翰逊说：‘多么优雅，多么精准，太精彩了。’
Edward Johnson, then the owner of Fidelity said, what grace, what timing, glorious.
此前从未有人像他那样管理过基金，尤其是媒体将他描绘成一位投资天才。
Nobody had ever run a fund like that before, and the press in particular portrayed him as an investing genius.
杰拉尔德·蔡 junior 在《新闻周刊》上写道，在他声望的巅峰时期，他散发着十足的冷静与魅力。
Gerald Tsai junior wrote Newsweek at the height of his fame radiates total cool.
他是第一位在媒体上获得名人待遇的基金经理，这或许使得接下来发生的一切成为必然。
He was the first fund manager to receive celebrity treatment in the press, which probably made what happened next inevitable.
在1965年大放异彩之后，蔡志勇独自创业，试图为他在曼哈顿的新基金筹集2500万美元。
After dazzling 1965, Tsai set out on his own seeking to raise 25,000,000 for his new Manhattan fund.
结果他筹集到了十倍的资金，因为投资者争相涌入他的基金，等等。
He wound up with 10 times the amount as investors clamored to get into the fund, etcetera.
于是他说，在约翰·布鲁克斯和亚当·史密斯等人的著作中，当你们父亲的基金下跌了90%之后，蔡志勇在这些书中成了被鄙视的对象。
And so then he says, that in these books by people like John Brooks and Adam Smith, are both these legends after your dad's fund had gone down 90%, he said Tsai was a figure of scorn in their books.
他说，尤其是布鲁克斯，将蔡志勇的陨落描绘成对他投资风格的应得报应，象征着那个时代的过度狂热。
He says Brooks, in particular, portrayed Tsai's fall as a kind of deserved comeuppance for his investing style, a metaphor for the excesses of the age.
这些作者几乎没意识到，有一天成千上万的共同基金和对冲基金经理会效仿蔡志勇的投资策略，主要因为股价在上涨而买入热门股票——这种策略在牛市中有效，但在熊市中却行不通。
Little did the authors realize that one day thousands of mutual fund and hedge fund managers would copy Tsai's investing strategies, buying hot stocks primarily because they were going up, which works in good times, but not in bad ones.
只不过他们称之为动量投资。
Only they called it momentum investing.
所以我只是想知道，你怎么看？
So I was just wondering, what what do you think?
这让你对公平或不公平，或者其他任何想法，有什么感受？
What what what does that raise both in terms of your sense of unfairness or or fairness or any other thoughts that you have?
好吧，让我先从最有利于我父亲的角度说起，然后再给你另一个视角。
Well, let me first start with the side that would be most favorable to my father, and then I'll I'll give you another perspective.
据我了解，我父亲已经不再管理那只基金了。
From what I understand that is that my father stopped managing that fund.
尽管管理公司仍然参与其中。
He was still the the management company was still involved.
虽然出售交易尚未完成，但我父亲已经退出了该基金的投资组合管理。
There was the sale wasn't completed, but my father had stepped back from the portfolio management of of that fund.
而且，所有投资于该基金的朋友都离开了。
And all of his friends who were in that fund had left.
因此，当我父亲宣布出售时，他所有的朋友——比如拉里·蒂施，他后来成了我妹妹的教父，还有哈罗德·热内，他最终掌管了ITT公司——以及所有这些杰出的商人，都立即撤资了。
So when my father announced the sale, all of his friends like Larry Tisch, who became my sister's godfather, and Harold Jeanine, who eventually ran ITT, and all these brilliant businessmen who were invested with my father immediately left.
所以，不幸的是，是的，公众损失了大约90%的资金，我和我父亲谈过这件事，他说实际数字没那么高，因为还有股息。
So, unfortunately, yeah, the the public lost whatever it was 90% or and I spoke to my father about that, and he says, well, the number was less than that because there was a dividend.
但无论如何，这毕竟是一大笔钱。
And but regardless, it's, you know, it's it's it's it's a lot of money.
他们亏损的原因在于，这些基金投资的底层资产，比如宝丽来和LTV，正如你所提到的，其内在价值可能远低于持仓的市场价值。
And the reason why they lost that is because underpinning these investments that were in the fund, like Polaroid and LTV, as you mentioned, had probably, you know, very little intrinsic value relative to the market value of the holdings.
所以他的做法完全是基于动量的，正如你所说。
So his approach was very much momentum based as you as you said.
这肯定不是我的方式，但你也必须考虑到，我现在试着公平地看待他。
It's certainly not my approach, but you have to also keep in mind that, look, this was a very now I'm trying to be fair to him.
这仅仅是他职业生涯中一小部分，但意义重大。
This was a very small part, a small but meaningful part of his career.
换句话说，他在富达基金和曼哈顿基金从事基金管理的这十年左右，或许再多几年，但也没多太多。
In other words, these ten or so years in fund management at Fidelity and Manhattan Fund, maybe a few more than ten years, but not that many more than ten years.
这让他有足够的智慧去抓住机会。
That allowed him he was smart enough to capitalize.
他很早就涉足这种动量交易。
He was early to this kind of momentum trade.
他足够聪明地发起了一只基金，在那个时期募集了2.5亿美元，顺便说一句，当时的申购费高达6%、7%或8%，甚至更高。
Was smart enough to raise a fund, raised $250,000,000 during the period when the commissions, by the way, the load was like six, seven, or 8% or something like, you know, something huge like that.
所以他们轻松赚到了这笔钱。
So they just raked in this money.
管理公司Sun Management Research盈利非常丰厚。
The management company, Sun Management Research, was extremely profitable.
据我所知，他后来以大约三千万美元的价格卖掉了它。
He was able to sell that for something like $30,000,000 from what I understand.
以现值计算，这是一笔巨款。
In present value terms, that's a lot of money.
对吧？
Right?
他用这笔钱作为启动资金，开展了之后的所有事业。
And he used that as the seed capital to do everything else that he he did in light.
这虽然是他职业生涯中的一小部分，但在获得启动资金、从而开展更多事业方面却极为关键。
It's a small part of his career, but a very meaningful one in terms of being able to have that seed capital now to go on and do many, many more things.
我们先短暂休息一下，听听今天赞助商的广告。
Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors.
好的。
All right.
我想让你们想象一下，在夏季高峰期前往奥斯陆度过三天。
I want you guys to imagine spending three days in Oslo at the height of the summer.
你有漫长的白昼、绝佳的美食、漂浮在奥斯陆峡湾上的桑拿房，而且你所有的对话对象都是真正塑造未来的人。
You got long days of daylight, incredible food, floating saunas on the Oslo Fjord, and every conversation you have is with people who are actually shaping the future.
这就是奥斯陆自由论坛。
That's what the Oslo Freedom Forum is.
从2026年6月1日开始，奥斯陆自由论坛将迎来它的第十八年，汇聚来自世界各地的活动家、技术专家、记者、投资者和建设者。
From June 1 through the third twenty twenty six, the Oslo Freedom Forum is entering its eighteenth year bringing together activists, technologists, journalists, investors, and builders from all over the world.
其中许多人正站在历史的最前沿。
Many of them operating on the front lines of history.
在这里，你可以亲耳听到人们讲述如何用比特币应对货币崩溃、如何用人工智能揭露人权侵害，以及在审查和威权压力下构建技术的故事。
This is where you hear firsthand stories from people using Bitcoin to survive currency collapse, using AI to expose human rights abuses, and building technology under censorship and authoritarian pressures.
这些都不是抽象的概念。
These aren't abstract ideas.
这些是现实中的人们正在使用的工具。
These are tools real people are using right now.
你将与大约2000位非凡人士同处一室——异议人士、创始人、慈善家、政策制定者，这些是你不仅会聆听，还会共进晚餐的人。
You'll be in the room with about 2,000 extraordinary individuals, dissidents, founders, philanthropists, policymakers, the kind of people you don't just listen to but end up having dinner with.
在三天里，你将体验震撼人心的主舞台演讲、关于自由科技与金融主权的动手工作坊、沉浸式艺术装置，以及会议结束后仍持续进行的深入对话。
Over three days, you'll experience powerful main stage talks, hands on workshops on freedom tech and financial sovereignty, immersive art installations, and conversations that continue long after the session's end.
这一切都将在六月的奥斯陆发生。
And it's all happening in Oslo in June.
如果这听起来像是你向往的场合，那你运气不错，因为你可以亲自到场参加。
If this sounds like your kind of room, well, you're in luck because you can attend in person.
标准票和赞助者票已在oslofreedomforum.com开放购买，赞助者票提供深度参与、私人活动以及与演讲者的小团体交流时间。
Standard and patron passes are available at oslofreedomforum.com with patron passes offering deep access, private events, and small group time with the speakers.
奥斯陆自由论坛不仅仅是一场会议。
The Oslo Freedom Forum isn't just a conference.
这是一个理念与现实交汇的地方，是那些亲历未来的人们正在构建未来的地方。
It's a place where ideas meet reality and where the future is being built by people living it.
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我们很多人都在退休账户之外购买比特币，一点一点地积累一些比特币。
A lot of us have been buying Bitcoin outside of our retirement accounts, stacking some Bitcoin here and there.
但我们的大部分财富仍然躺在传统的401(k)或IRA账户里，锁在那些我们不再相信的股票、债券和基金中。
But most of our wealth, it's still sitting in traditional four zero one k's or IRA's locked in the stocks, bonds, and funds we don't really believe in anymore.
但大多数人并不知道的是。
But here's what most people don't know.
你可以将这笔钱投资到一个持有比特币的税收优惠退休账户中。
You can invest that money into a tax advantage retirement account that holds Bitcoin.
这被称为比特币IRA。
It's called a Bitcoin IRA.
如果你操作得当，你不仅仅是通过某个ETF用比特币替代股票，而是将真正的比特币存放在一个由你掌控的保险库中。
And if you do it right, you're not just swapping stocks for Bitcoin exposure through some ETF, you're holding real Bitcoin inside a vault where you hold the keys.
这就是Unchained比特币IRA与众不同的地方。
That's where Unchained Bitcoin IRA is built different.
它是真正的多重签名，真正的链上比特币，由你掌控。
It's real multisig, real Bitcoin on chain in your control.
这意味着什么。
Here's what that means.
你既能享受传统罗斯IRA或SEP IRA的税收优惠，又不会放弃主权。
You get all the tax advantages of a traditional Roth or SEP IRA, but you're not giving up sovereignty.
你持有两个密钥，Unchained持有其中一个，没有单点故障。
You hold two keys, Unchained holds one, there's no single point of failure.
你甚至只需点击几下，就可以将旧的401(k)转入比特币IRA。
You can even roll over your old four zero one k into a Bitcoin IRA with just a few clicks.
当需要传承时，系统内置了继承协议。
And when it's time to pass it all on, there's a built in inheritance protocol.
你的家人会收到密钥。
Your family gets keys.
没有任何麻烦。
No headaches.
Unchained自2016年以来一直在做这件事。
Unchained been doing this since 2016.
他们为超过12,000名客户安全保管了超过120亿美元的比特币。
They secured over 12,000,000,000 in Bitcoin for more than 12,000 clients.
这约占全球现有比特币的二百分之一。
It's about one out of every 200 Bitcoin in existence.
所以，如果你认真打算长期持有比特币，并希望以正确的方式——主权、安全、税收优惠——通过退休账户进行，那就前往 unchained.com/preston，结账时使用代码 Preston 10，享受首次购买10%的折扣。
So if you're serious about holding Bitcoin for the long run and you wanna do it inside a retirement account the right way, sovereign, secure, tax advantaged, Go to unchained.com/preston and use code Preston 10 at checkout to get 10% off your first purchase.
别再拖延了。
Don't wait.
未来由你亲手掌控。
The future is yours to hold.
如果你经营企业，最近很可能也产生过同样的想法。
If you run a business, you've probably had the same thought lately.
我们如何让人工智能在现实世界中真正发挥作用？
How do we make AI useful in the real world?
因为潜在收益巨大，但靠猜测盲目进入却风险极高。
Because the upside is huge, but guessing your way into it is a risky move.
使用甲骨文的NetSuite，您今天就可以让AI发挥作用。
With NetSuite by Oracle, you can put AI to work today.
NetSuite是超过43,000家企业信赖的头号AI云ERP系统。
NetSuite is the number one AI cloud ERP trusted by over 43,000 businesses.
它将您的财务、库存、电商、人力资源和客户关系管理整合到一个统一的系统中。
It pulls your financials, inventory, commerce, HR, and CRM into one unified system.
而这种互联的数据正是让您的AI更智能的关键。
And that connected data is what makes your AI smarter.
它可以自动化日常任务，提供可操作的洞察，帮助您降低成本，同时自信地做出快速的AI驱动决策。
It can automate routine work, surface actionable insights, and help you cut costs while making fast AI powered decisions with confidence.
现在，借助NetSuite AI连接器，您可以使用自己选择的AI工具直接连接到真实的业务数据。
And now with the NetSuite AI Connector, you can use the AI of your choice to connect directly to your real business data.
这并不是什么附加功能，而是内置在支撑您业务的系统中的AI。
This isn't some add on, it's AI built into the system that runs your business.
无论您的公司年营收是数百万还是数亿，NetSuite都能帮助您保持领先。
And whether your company does millions or even hundreds of millions, NetSuite helps you stay ahead.
如果你的年收入达到七位数以上，请免费获取他们的商业指南《揭开AI的神秘面纱》，访问 netsuite.com/study。
If your revenues are at least in the 7 figures, get their free business guide, Demystifying AI at netsuite.com/study.
这份指南免费提供，访问 netsuite.com/study 即可领取。
The guide is free to you at netsuite.com/study.
好的。
All right.
我们继续回到节目。
Back to the show.
从你个人生活的角度来看，这也非常有趣，因为某种程度上，作为投资者的你与过去完全不同。
It's also just so interesting in terms of your your own life because in some ways, you're totally different from that as an investor.
所以我非常感兴趣，我们稍后会更多聊聊你的投资理念，但我想深入了解其中的相似点与不同之处。
And so I'm really interested in, we'll talk more about your investing philosophy, but I'm really interested in in the similarities and differences.
因为某种程度上，我记得你父亲曾谈到，他拥有一组高度集中的优质成长型股票。
Because in some ways, I mean, I remember your father talking about how he had this fairly concentrated group of of very high quality growth stocks.
但他曾经对你说过，你不必非得一直持有某只股票。
But then he he once said to you, you know, something about, you know, you shouldn't feel like you have to stay with a stock.
这就像婚姻一样。
It's like a wife.
你知道的？
You know?
你不必非得留下。
You don't have to stay.
所以他并没有像你这样具备长远的眼光，但他确实也尊重优质资产。
And and so he wasn't you know, he didn't have the long term perspective that you have, but he also did have a respect for quality.
你能谈谈，拥有这样一位非凡且颇具传奇色彩的父亲，是如何塑造了你自己的投资理念的吗？
And so can you just talk about how having this background of this father who was an extraordinary and kind of iconic figure shaped your own investing philosophy.
是的。
Yeah.
我越在生活中体会，就越发现人们身上充满了矛盾。
I mean, it's the more I realize in life, like, people are full of contradictions.
对吧？
Right?
他们充满矛盾，说的是一回事。
They're just full of full of contradictions, and they say one thing.
做的是另一回事。
They behave another way.
我从小就明白了这一点，因为我在青少年时期曾为父亲工作，他可能是我遇到过的最严厉的老板之一。
His what I learned very early because I I did work for my father in my teens, in which he was probably one of the hardest bosses I had.
我有过两次实习经历，一次在马里奥·加贝利那里，一次在约翰·莱文那里，他是迈克尔·斯坦哈特的合伙人。
I had two internships, one with Mario Gabelli, one with John Levin, who was a partner with Michael Steinhardt.
那些都是严厉的老板。
Those were tough bosses.
直到今天我仍然和他们保持着联系。
And I'm still in touch with them today.
但我的父亲确实是个非常严厉的老板。
And but my father was a really tough boss.
所以有一次我在考察一家公司，那是家医疗产品公司，他就说——
And so I was looking at a company once, and he's you know, I was it was a medical products company.
他说，你去做一些研究。
And he said, you know, do some research.
回来找我。
Come back to me.
我们再聊聊这个。
Let's talk about it.
那时候你知道，你不能只是上网下载所有东西。
And in those days, you know, you couldn't just go online and just download everything.
至少我没有那样的访问权限。
At least I didn't have that access.
所以你要给公司打电话。
So you call up the company.
我会去拿10-Q和10-K报告，做所有的研究。
I'd get the 10 q's, the 10 k's, do all my research.
几周后，或者三周后，我回来对他说，我真的挺看好这个想法的。
I came back to him, like, couple weeks later or three weeks later, and I said, really like this idea.
我们应该为基金会买一些，因为我当时参与了他的基金会工作，也负责投资方面。
We should we should buy some for the foundation because I was help I was involved with his foundation and on the investment side.
他说，不行。
And he said, no.
别担心这个。
Don't worry about that.
我已经卖掉了那只股票。
I sold that stock already.
所以他已经买了一些，而我并不知道，而且他已经卖掉了。
So he had already bought some, which I did not know, and then he already had sold it.
于是我意识到，这并不是我想看待投资的方式。
So I realized that this is like this is not the way I wanna think about investing.
我很早就明白了，这真的不是我想看待投资的方式。
And I learned that very early, like, that is not the way I wanna think about investing.
这并不是我想花费我的时间和生命的方式。
That is not the way I wanna spend my time and my life.
幸运的是，我当时正在阅读本·格雷厄姆、彼得·林奇、菲利普·费雪以及其他一些基金经理写的投资书籍。
And fortunately, I was reading Ben Graham and and and Peter Lynch and Phil Fisher and and a bunch of other bunch of other, you know, investment books by other managers.
我自然而然地被价值投资的世界所吸引。
And I just gravitated to to call it the world of value investing.
于是，我们的投资方式走上了完全不同的道路。
And so we went in very, very different ways.
但回答你的问题，我从他那里学到了一些非常重要的东西。
But to answer your question, like, I learned some very, very important things from him.
我学会了不要仅仅因为一家公司的估值表面上看起来昂贵，就轻易否定它作为潜在投资的可能。
I learned not to dismiss a company's a company as a potential investment just because on the surface, its valuation looks expensive.
他一生中最好的投资，以及他大部分的财富，其实都来自于交易本身。
The best investments that he's made in his life and most of the money, by the way, he's made in deal making.
所以我认为，公众可能并不真正理解这一点。
So I think that probably the public doesn't really understand that.
但他大部分的财富其实都来自于交易。
But most of the money that he's made was in deal making.
我认为，如果我查看他在公开交易股票上的操作，表现并不算好。
I think that if I looked at his trades in in at publicly traded equities, not so good.
但他很早就参与了一些后来上市的私营公司，并且由于他与创始人和首席执行官是朋友，便长期持有这些股票，根本不会出售他与CEO关系密切的公司。
But he was involved early in some private companies that became public, and then he wound up holding them for very long periods of time because he was friends with the the founder and the CEO, and he just would not sell something that he was close to the the CEO.
因此，这迫使他不得不坚持持有这些投资。
So that kind of forced him to, you know, stick with these holdings.
我可以给你举很多例子，但他大部分的钱都是通过这些私人交易赚到的。
And I can give you a bunch of examples, but he made most of his money in these private deals.
我想在这里打断一下，因为这实在太有趣了。
That's I I just wanted to stop stop you there because that's such an interesting thing.
这有点像我们经常谈到的观念——本·格雷厄姆，价值投资的守护神，以买入便宜股票著称，但正如查理·芒格经常指出的，是的。
It's a little bit like, the realization that we often talk about that Ben Graham, you know, the patron saint of value investing and buying cheap, as Charlie Munger would often point out Yeah.
他大部分的钱其实是从GEICO这只高质量股票上赚来的。
Made much of his money off GEICO, a really high quality stock.
这里特别有趣的是，我想暂停一下，思考一下杰拉尔德·蔡 junior——动量投资的伟大代表——实际上大部分财富也是来自投资企业并长期持有，你怎么看？
It's really interesting here that I just wanted to to pause and ponder the fact that that Gerald Tsai Junior, the great icon of Momentum Investing, actually made much of his money from investing in businesses and then sticking with them for like, what what do you make of that?
这是一个非常有趣的见解。
It's such an interesting insight.
正如我所说，人们充满了矛盾。
Like I said, people are full of of contradictions.
本·格雷厄姆向他的学生宣扬分散投资，但他自己却在GEICO上高度集中。
And so Ben Graham was you know, preaches diversification to his students, and yet he's highly concentrated in GEICO personally.
对吧？
Right?
我父亲赚钱的生意，同样是那些从私有转为公开的公司，或者在交易中获利。
So the businesses that my father made money on were, again, the private ones that became public or in in deal making, he made money there.
而且，我学到了，他赚了很多钱。
And and but I learned and he made a lot of money.
我的意思是，相对于整个财富来说不算多，但他在房地产和艺术方面确实做得非常好。
I mean, not relative to the whole to the whole pie, but he he did very, very well in real estate and in art, incidentally.
在艺术方面，真的非常成功。
Like, really, really well in art.
从这一切中，我学到了一些东西，如果我审视他的错误和成功的话。
And what people what I learned from all of that, if I look at his mistakes and successes, I learned a couple things.
首先，他大部分的钱都是通过长期持有获得的，而不是他在公开股票市场中以动量交易闻名的方式。
The first is most of the money he's made by holding on to things, not the momentum trading that he was known for in public equities.
其次，他大部分的钱都是通过购买优质资产赚来的。
And number two, he made most of his money buying quality.
优质资产对他的成功至关重要。
Like, quality is is was was very, very important to his success.
这一点我从他身上学到了。
And that's something I've I've taken from him.
我真心相信，你成长的环境决定了你一生中会成为什么样的人、拥有怎样的心态。
And I truly believe, like, the environment in which you grow up dictates the kind of person and mentality you will have in life.
让我简单展开说一下。
So let me just quickly expand on that.
如果你在大萧条时期长大，我推测你会专注于节省每一分钱，寻找便宜、便宜、再便宜的东西。
If you grow up during the Great Depression, I would presume you're you're focused on saving every penny and looking for cheap, cheap, cheap.
我认为我只是在猜测，你这一生会更专注于购买雪茄烟蒂，而不是去寻找并可能为最高质量的资产支付溢价。
And I think I'm just taking a guess that you're gonna be much more focused on buying cigar butts in life than you might be on buying the highest quality asset you can find and maybe paying up for.
不知怎的，我父亲明白了真正的财富来自于最好的企业与更高品质的资产，他很早就把这一点灌输给了我。
Somehow my father figured out that the real money is in the best businesses and the higher quality assets, And he instilled that in me very early.
有时候，这些东西看起来很贵。
And sometimes these things look expensive.
所以我之前的观点是，他很早就教会我，不要因为某样东西表面看起来昂贵就轻易否定它，而要深入研究，真正理解你买的是什么以及它的实际价值。
And so my point earlier is that he taught me very early not to dismiss something that might look expensive on the surface before you do the deep work and really understand what you're buying and what it's worth.
我认为，很多价值投资者面临的问题是，他们都依赖筛选工具。
And the problem that a lot of value investors have, I think, is that they all screen.
他们全都用低市盈率、高股息收益率、低企业价值与现金流比率之类的指标来筛选，不管是什么，他们都在筛。
They all screen for low p ratios, high dividend yields, you know, low EV to cash flows, what whatever it is, they're screening.
而他们会错过机会，因为这类价值投资机会很容易被竞争抹平。
And they will miss because the kind of any value in that area can get competed away.
所以我更感兴趣的是那些表面上看起来昂贵、但实际上并不贵的企业。
And so I'm more interested in businesses that might look expensive on the surface, but actually aren't.
你必须小心，因为很多东西确实很贵。
You have to be careful because a lot actually are expensive.
对吧？
Right?
那里没有任何安全边际。
And there's no margin safety there.
但彼得·考夫曼说过，有神秘感的地方就有安全边际。
But there is Peter Kaufman said there is there's margin where there's mystery.
我觉得这太对了。
I think that's so true.
有神秘感的地方就有安全边际。
There's margin where there's mystery.
因此，有时最好的投资是那些被误解、看似昂贵但实际上优质的公司。
And so sometimes the best investments are those that are misunderstood and might appear expensive, and they're often quality kinds of businesses.
所以，由于他对我产生的影响，我倾向于选择优质企业，这说得通吧。
So I gravitate toward quality partly as a result of that influence he had on me, if that makes sense.
所以，让我们跳过我准备的四页问题，直接谈特斯拉，它实际上是这一理念的绝佳体现和例证。
So so let's jettison about four pages of my questions for you and go straight to Tesla, which is really an important embodiment of of this and an illustration of this.
几个月前我们在瑞士见面时，特斯拉还是你最大的持仓，也是你最具信心的投资，当时它的股价已经涨了六倍。
And, Tesla, when we were hanging out in Switzerland a couple of months ago, was your largest position and your highest conviction idea and had gone up about sixfold since you bought it.
你能谈谈特斯拉在某种程度上如何完美地体现了你的投资方法吗？它看起来可能很贵，被很多人认为定价过高，也一直是空头的最爱。
Can you talk about how Tesla is in some ways a perfect illustration of what you do, that it's something that maybe looked expensive, has been regarded as overpriced by a lot of people, it's been a favorite of short sellers.
但你仔细研究后却认为，其实并不是这样。
And you looked at it and thought, actually, no.
它比人们意识到的更具颠覆性。
And this is much more disrupt disruptive than people realize.
它的潜力远比人们想象的要广泛得多。
It's a much it's got much broader potential than people realize.
它远远不止是一家汽车公司。
It's much more than a car company.
它充分体现了你做事的方式。
It illustrates so much in the way that you do things.
但如果你能，嗯，让里普告诉我们，特斯拉首先说明了什么——表面上看起来很贵，但实际上可能并不贵。
But if you could so so, yeah, let let Rip tell us what Tesla illustrated about, for a start, something that that seemed expensive on the surface, but actually maybe wasn't.
好吧，我希望我能比我实际更聪明一些，你知道的，我希望我够聪明，能早早注意到特斯拉。
Well, I wish I were smart smarter than I, you know, I wish I was smart in the sense that I think that I was linked to Tesla.
我大约在2018年左右开始关注这家公司，当时它因为2019年实现盈利而大幅上涨。
I started looking at the company in 2018 or so that had this huge huge run up as it it turned profitable in '20 2019.
所以我错过了这一波上涨。
And so I missed this run up.
它引起我兴趣的原因有很多，我会一一说明。
It was interesting to me for a lot of reasons, which I'll get into.
但随后在2020年2月，我们经历了新冠疫情引发的抛售，或者说是股票在2020年2月的下跌。
But then we had this COVID sell off in February, or we had a sell off in the stock in February 2020.
就是在那时，我们建了初始仓位。
That's when we took our initial position.
是的。
Yeah.
我们的平均成本大约是每股41.66美元。
We our average, think, is about $41.66 a share.
从那时起，我们的表现非常好，但我认为这还只是刚开始，我也完全可能错了。
So we've we've done very well since that time, but I think it's it's early innings, and I could totally be wrong.
但我认为，这家公司是我过去25年左右为他人管理资金时见过的最被误解的公司之一。
But I think that this company is definitely, one of the most misunderstood companies that I've I've seen in my 25 or so of managing money for others.
这是一家非常有趣且被严重误解的公司。
It's it's such an interesting company, and it and it's so misunderstood.
我认为它被误解有几个原因。
And I think it's misunderstood for a few reasons.
第一，你有一个强大的个人特质，人们会根据埃隆当天说了什么来形成自己的看法。
One, you have this kind of overarching personality where people start to formulate opinions based on what Elon is is is has decided to say during the day.
人们把它当作一家汽车公司来看待，这一点我们可以讨论。
They people think about it as a as a as a car company, and we can talk about that.
我不认为从本质上讲它是一家汽车公司，这听起来可能很疯狂，但我稍后会解释。
I don't think fundamentally that it it it is, and that might seem like this crazy statement, but I'll I'll get into that.
第三，大多数人实际上并没有深入研究过。
And third, it is a most people haven't actually dived in.
对吧？
Right?
他们没有花上数百小时去研究这家公司，也没有真正仔细分析过财务数据以理解其商业经济模式。
They've not spent the hundreds and hundreds of hours on this company, and they haven't really gone through the financials to understand the the economics of the business.
因此，有几件事情正在共同作用，使得我认为这家公司仍然被严重误解。
So there are there are few things coming together where I think that this this company still remains misunderstood.
但既然自上市以来股价上涨了约15000%，这背后一定有原因。
But there's a reason why it's up, whatever, 15000% or so since the IPO.
而且它之所以能持续上涨，是因为确实有很多人真正理解了它。
And there is a reason why it continues to go higher over time, because there are plenty of people that do get it.
对吧？
Right?
而这种理解正越来越集中到我所谓的‘聪明钱’手中。
And that that's just getting more and more concentrated into what I would probably call hands of smart money.
但再说一遍，我可能错了。
But, again, I I could be wrong.
但市场似乎认同，这是一件非常特别的事情。
But the market seems to to agree that this is something very special.
那我们来稍微分析一下。
So let's break this down a little bit.
你提到过一点，就是怀疑者、批评者、做空者等人没有意识到，这不仅仅是一家电动汽车公司。
So one thing that you've said is that the skeptics and critics and the short sellers and the like fail to understand that it's really not just an electric vehicle company.
那它到底是什么？
So what is it?
我对这些都持中立态度。
And I'm I'm agnostic about all of this.
我只是在拆解分析这件事。
I'm just I'm just unpacking this.
我在这个问题上没有立场。
I I don't have a dog in this race.
我说它不仅仅是一家汽车公司。
I'd say it's not just a car company.
它确实是一家电动汽车公司，但不仅仅是一家汽车公司。
It is very much an EV company, but it's not just a car company.
让我给你一个框架。
So let me give you the framework.
让我解释一下我用来合理化自己投资决策的框架，不管对错。
Let or let me let me explain the the framework that I use at least to rationalize my decision to be invested whether whether right or wrong.
在二十世纪初，你知道，有一种叫马车的交通工具。
In the early nineteen hundreds, you know, there's this ice vehicle.
亨利·福特在1908年推出了T型车，当时人们对T型车非常怀疑。
Henry Ford comes out in nineteen o eight with the with the the model t, and people were really, really skeptical about the model t.
有一本叫《马车月刊》的杂志，其主编在当时是非常有影响力的。
There was a magazine called Carriage Monthly, and the editor in chief of the Carriage Monthly, which was like the this was a very popular magazine at the time.
《马车月刊》的主编说，人类几千年来一直依靠牲畜运输。
The editor in chief said that human beings have been carried by beasts by for thousands of years.
为什么未来会有什么不同呢？
Why would the future look any different?
当然，事实确实如此。
And, of course, it it it did.
为什么人们会持怀疑态度？
Why were people skeptical?
因为当时没有铺装道路。
Well, there were no paved roads.
供应链非常有限。
Supply chains were very limited.
加油站极少。
There were very few fueling stations.
制造能力非常有限。
There was very little manufacturing capacity.
听起来是不是和今天的电动汽车情况很相似？
Kinda sound familiar, right, to today in EV terms.
但内燃机汽车，亨利·福特在短短二十年内迅速颠覆了马车，而这恰好也是S型曲线形成所需的时间框架。
But ICE vehicles, Henry Ford disrupted the horse and carriage very quickly within twenty years, which is happens to be pretty much the time frame, during which s curves take formation.
对于几乎所有变革性技术——从印刷机、蒸汽机到纺车——这种颠覆期都是二十年。
It's a twenty year disruption period with respect to pretty much all these transformational technologies going back to the printing press and the steam engine and spinning wheel.
这一切都围绕着二十年展开。
It's all about twenty years.
所以我的观点是，尽管存在这么多质疑，马车仍然在与这种嘈杂的内燃机汽车竞争。
So my point is that there's all of this skepticism, and you had horse and carriage competing against this noisy ICE vehicle.
两者都是交通工具。
Both were forms of transportation.
它们都能把你从A点运到B点，但其中一种在本质上完全不同。
Both got you from point a to point b, but one was fundamentally different.
它之所以本质不同，是因为它实现从A点到B点的运输过程要高效得多。
It was fundamentally different because it was a much more efficient process of getting you from point a to point b.
这就是我从一个非常宏观的视角来看待特斯拉的视角。
And that is the lens from a kind of very high top down level that I look at Tesla.
而电动汽车整体而言，比内燃机汽车更能高效地将你从A点运送到B点。
And electric vehicles in general, they're just a much more efficient way to get you from point a to point b than ICE vehicles.
我的意思是，拥有成本和每英里成本都要低得多。
And what I mean by that is the cost of ownership and cost per mile is just much lower.
那么问题来了，风险是什么？
And so then it's a question of what are the risks?
特斯拉在电动汽车领域相对于其他竞争对手有哪些竞争优势？
What are the competitive advantage does Tesla have over the rest of the competition in EV?
特斯拉将如何在内燃机汽车中生存并繁荣？在我看来，内燃机汽车正走向恐龙般的灭绝。
And how will Tesla survive and thrive against ICE vehicles, which to me are going the way of the dinosaur.
这是一个很大的假设，但我相信它是正确的，因为我认为电动汽车的普及正遵循传统的S型曲线采纳阶段。
That that is a big assumption that I believe is is true because I think that EV adoption is following the traditional s curve adoption phase.
内燃机汽车所剩的时间已经不多了。
And there's not a lot of time left for for ICE vehicles to to exist.
在过去的几年里，你写了很多关于颠覆性变革的内容。
So you've written a lot in the last couple of years about disruption.
你能谈谈为什么作为人类，我们在理解颠覆性公司方面总是有困难吗？
And can you talk a little bit about why in a way we just have trouble as humans understanding disruptive companies?
这是我们所有人都有的进化问题。
It's an evolutionary issue that we all we all have.
因为从进化角度看，我们的大脑天生习惯于线性思维。
Because evolutionarily, our brains are wired to think in linear terms.
它们并不适合进行指数思维，而颠覆性创新和技术正是以S型曲线的形式发展的。
They're not designed to think in exponential terms, which is how disruptive innovations and technologies take their form as as an s curve.
因此，在任何颠覆性技术中，通常都会经历一个过程——你可以回溯到印刷术。
And so there's typically in in any disruptive technology, again, going back to the you can go back to the printing press.
你可以看看纺车、蒸汽机、有线电视的普及，以及内燃机汽车的普及。
You can look at the spinning wheel and the steam engine, the adoption of cable, the adoption of ICE vehicles.
对吧？
Right?
有线电视的普及，流媒体的普及。
The adoption of cable, the adoption of streaming.
它们都发生在大约二十年的时间内。
They've all happened within roughly a twenty year period.
我说的‘都发生’，是指它们都达到了90%的普及率。
And by all happened, I mean they've gone to 90% adoption.
所以，通常一开始进展很缓慢。
So, typically, you start out pretty slowly.
然后会出现一个临界点，S形曲线的指数部分开始显现。
And then there's a tipping point where this s curve formation really takes the exponential component of the s curve takes place.
随后就会出现大规模、快速且广泛的普及。
And there's just massive, very fast widespread adoption.
而我们的大脑并不适应这种思维方式。
And our brains are not wired to think like that.
这也是我们难以理解复利力量的另一个原因。
And that's another reason why we can't understand the power of compounding.
我们必须坐下来，拿出计算器，亲自算一算。
Like, we have to sit down and actually take the calculator out, and we can do the math.
我们可以算一算，你看。
And we can do the math and look at, look.
如果你当初投入1美元，现在会变成630美元吗？
What happens if you put $1 and you'd have $630 today?
所以你在66年里让资金增长了630倍。
So you have 630 times your money in sixty six years.
这可是10%的复利增长。
Like, it's and that's 10% compounded.
我们就是不会这样思考。
So we just don't think like that.
我认为电动汽车的普及也在发生同样的情况。
And I think that same thing is happening with the adoption of of electric vehicles.
几个月前，在盖伊·斯皮尔主办的价值X活动上，你和我在瑞士克洛斯特斯共进晚餐时。
When you and I had dinner in Closters in Switzerland at the Value X event that Guy Spier hosted a couple of months ago.
我记得你曾提到，如果没有马塞尔·普鲁斯特——他可能是我最喜爱的作家——你可能根本不会投资特斯拉。
I remember at one point you mentioning the without Marcel Proust, who's my favorite writer probably, you might actually not have invested in Tesla.
这是一个非常特别的评论，完美地激发了我的兴趣和认同。
And it's a it's an unusual comment that was perfectly designed to pique my interest and approval.
告诉我们吧，普鲁斯特在1913年左右写作时，究竟有什么深刻的见解？你来说说。
Tell us why, what the great insight was from Proust when he was writing around 1913 about well, you tell us.
嗯，我有个问题。
Well, I have this problem.
每当读小说时，我总在寻找一些可以从中提取并应用到投资世界的小故事。
Like, whenever I read fiction, I'm looking for a little anecdotes of of what I can take from that fiction and apply it to the world of investing.
我本该停止这样做，只是单纯地享受小说本身，但我就是改不了。
I should stop I should stop doing that, but and just enjoy the fiction.
但这次，普鲁斯特——那位创作了《追忆似水年华》的法国文学巨匠——正如你所说，他写下了这段话，我想应该是在《追忆似水年华》第四或第五卷里，当然你比我更清楚。
But in this case, Proust, who was the monumental French author who wrote in search of lost time, as you said, he wrote, I believe it was in you'll you'll know more better than I, like, you know, the the fourth or the fifth book within in search of lost time.
他说：真正的发现之旅不在于寻找新的风景，而在于拥有新的眼光。
He said, the real voyage of discovery is not in seeking new landscapes, but in having new eyes.
当我读到这句话时，我心想：哇。
That is so was when when I read that, I said, wow.
这正是马塞尔·普鲁斯特在谈论那些当前进行再投资、暂时压低盈利能力以创造未来更高内在价值的轻资产增长型企业。
This is this is this is Marcel Proust speaking about asset light growth businesses that are reinvesting now, penalizing their earning power now to create a higher intrinsic value later.
顺便说一下，亚当·西塞尔完全理解这一点。
And Adam Seesel, by the way, gets it.
亚当·西塞尔彻底明白了这一点。
Adam Seesel totally gets that.
需要记住的是，对于轻资产增长型公司，尤其是软件公司，这些投资通常会全额计入损益表。
And the thing to remember, like, with asset light growth companies, especially software companies, the investment is often hitting the income statement fully.
我的意思是，这些支出并不会被资本化。
So by that, I mean that there's no capitalization of the expense.
举个例子，如果你说的是制药公司，研发费用会直接计入损益表，影响当期利润。
So if you have a, let's say, if you're talking about a drug company, pharmaceutical company, the r and d is is is flowing through the income statement and hitting the income statement.
对于软件公司来说，情况也是一样的。
When you have a software company, the same thing is happening.
但如果你是一家钢铁公司，或者资产非常重的公司，你就会把这些支出分七年、十年，甚至十五年进行资本化。
But if you have, let's say, a steel company or a a very asset heavy company, you're capitalizing that expense over seven, ten, even fifteen years.
对吧？
Right?
所以后果是，市盈率会更低，因为你现在的盈利能力更强。
And so the the consequences, like, the multiple is gonna be lower because you're you're gonna have a higher earnings power today.
如果你现在全面压低了损益表上的收入，你的利润会更低，而市盈率则会更高。
If you're penalizing all of your your income statement now, your earnings are gonna be lower and your multiple's gonna be higher.
因此，这常常解释了为什么快速增长的轻资产公司，尤其是成长型公司，其市盈率比其他公司更高。
So that's often why, rapidly growing asset light, in particular, growth companies, have a higher multiple than other companies do.
理解这一点非常重要。
And it's super important to understand that.
就像普鲁斯特告诉我的那样，你必须用全新的视角来看待估值，以适应我们所处的这个世界。
Like and and that's that was Proust to me just understanding that you have to think about valuation with new new eyes to align with the kind of world that we're living in.
一个已经从重资产转向轻资产的世界。
A world that has moved away from asset heavy to asset light.
某种程度上，这让我想起比尔·米勒在2001年2月告诉我，他当时因为买入亚马逊15%的股份而受到批评。
In a way, it reminds me of what Bill Miller said to me back in February 2001 when he was getting Pillar It for buying 15% of Amazon.
比尔深受威廉·詹姆斯和维特根斯坦等哲学家的影响。
And Bill was hugely influenced by philosophers like William James and Wittgenstein.
这正是他能够对这些事情保持中立的原因之一，因为他可以说：让我用全新的眼光来看待亚马逊。
And that was one of the reasons why he could be so agnostic about these things because he could say, let let me let me look at Amazon with new eyes.
让我抛开偏见，仔细思考：这到底是什么？
Let me look at it without bias and say, well, what really is this?
它是一家亏损累累、注定失败、代表了互联网泡沫时代过度扩张的公司吗？
Is it a money losing company that's doomed to fail and is the embodiment of the excesses of the .com era?
还是说，它实际上拥有一个极具长远眼光的非凡首席执行官，他因极度耐心而推迟回报，并且拥有一个将在未来显现的成本优势？
Or is it something that actually has this unbelievable CEO who's very long term and is deferring the rewards because he's incredibly patient and it has a cost advantage that's going to become apparent down the road?
由于比尔是一个自由思想者，他所借鉴的资源与众不同——这些哲学资源使他能够以更中立、无偏见的方式看待事物，从而真正理解了亚马逊。
And so because Bill is such a free thinker and had a different set of sources that he was drawing on, philosophical sources that enabled him to see things more agnostically without bias, he was able to understand Amazon.
在我看来，他去年告诉我，他基本上是亚马逊最大的个人股东，仅次于贝佐斯。
And so it it seems to me and and, I mean, he he told me last year or so that basically he's the he's the biggest single individual shareholder of Amazon who isn't called Bezos.
这是在杰夫·贝佐斯的前妻改掉姓氏‘贝佐斯’之前的事，因为她显然也是大股东。
This before Jeff Bezos' ex wife changed her name from Bezos because she's obviously a huge shareholder.
但我觉得这触及了一个非常重要的问题，也就是普鲁斯特、维特根斯坦和威廉·詹姆斯在哲学领域所探讨的：你必须真正去定义，我所看到的到底是什么？
But so I think this gets at a really important issue, which is which I think Proust is getting at and Wittgenstein and William James got at in the field of philosophy, which is that you have to try to actually define, like, what is it that I'm looking at?
如果我以无偏见、全新的视角来看，我会看到大众没有注意到的东西吗？
And if I look without bias and with fresh eyes, will I see something that the crowd isn't seeing?
但在这方面，情况有些复杂，因为正如你在一些文章中指出的，我们正处在一个技术飞速变革的时代。
But it's complicated here in some ways because as you've pointed out in some of your writings, we're in this age of incredibly rapid technological change.
我们以前从未见过这样的情况。
We've never really seen this happen.
因此，很难去看待特斯拉，然后问：这到底是什么？
And so it's very hard to see Tesla and be like, well, what really is this?
因为正如你所指出的，它是一家汽车公司，还是说它还能颠覆其他哪些领域？
Because as you point out, is it a car company or is it a you know, what are the other fields that that Tesla can actually revolutionize?
所以我给你提供了一个看待特斯拉的初步视角，即它作为电动车公司与传统燃油车竞争，而电动车整体上比燃油车高效得多。
So I gave you the first kinda, like, lens at which I'm looking at Tesla as competing as an EV company against ICE vehicles and EV as a whole being much more efficient than than ICE.
但我还应该分享另一个视角：如果你不理解这一点，就无法真正理解这家公司——当然，这是在我假设自己正确的前提下。
But the other lens I should share is that I don't think you can understand this company if you don't understand, assuming that I'm assuming that I'm right.
对吧？
Right?
这完全可能是错的。
It could be totally wrong.
假设我是对的，我认为如果你不理解这一点，就无法真正理解这家公司——在我看来，它是一家先进的电子和软件公司，正在与传统的汽车制造公司竞争。
Assuming that I'm right, I don't believe you can understand the company if you don't understand that, to me, it's an advanced electronics manufacturer and software company competing against a traditional automobile manufacturing company.
那么，为什么这很重要？
And so why is this important?
我之所以这么认为是有原因的，我可以谈一谈。
And and there's a reason why I believe that, and I can and I can talk about that.
但为什么这很重要？
But why is this important?
这极其重要。
This is super important.
这是一家电子与软件公司，正在与传统汽车行业竞争。
It's an electronics slash software company competing against traditional auto.
理解这一点非常重要，因为有一些关键因素会随之产生影响。
It's super important to understand that because there's certain things that kind of, like, come into play.
有一位名叫西奥多·赖特的航空工程师，他提出了所谓的‘赖特定律’，该定律指出：每当累计产量翻倍时，成本就会以一个恒定的百分比下降。
There was a aeronautical engineer by the name of Theodore Wright, and Theodore Wright devised this concept called the Wright's Law, which states that for every doubling of cumulative production, that costs fall by a constant percentage.
当你明白特斯拉是一家电子软件公司时，你就能理解这家公司在这条赖特定律曲线上处于什么位置。
And when you understand that Tesla is an electronic software company, you understand, like, where is this company along this Wright's law curve?
特斯拉在这条曲线上远远领先于任何受制于非电子软件属性的燃油车。
Tesla is so much further along the curve than any of the ICE vehicles that are constrained because they're not electronic in software companies.
它们是传统的汽车公司。
They're traditional auto companies.
而且，特斯拉在这条曲线上也远远领先于其他电动汽车公司。
And it's Tesla's so much further along the curve with respect to other EV companies.
因此，当传统燃油车逐渐追赶时，特斯拉却继续在这条曲线上大幅前进。
And so as ICE vehicles, traditional auto catches up, Tesla just moves much further along the curve.
因此，特斯拉与其他电动汽车公司以及传统汽车公司之间的竞争优势差距实际上正在扩大。
And so the the the spread between the competitive advantage of Tesla, the other EV companies, and traditional auto is actually widening.
差距并没有缩小。
It's not getting more narrow.
由于规模巨大，特斯拉能够比其他任何公司更深入地推动成本曲线，因此差距正在扩大。
It's widening because of its massive scale, which allows it to push itself out along the the cost curve further than anybody else.
因此，该公司的一项主要竞争优势是其低成本生产的能力。
And so one of the major competitive advantages that the company has is that it's a low cost producer.
这一点非常重要，必须理解。
Like, that is very important to understand.
市场也看到了这一点。
And the street sees that.
市场看到他们为一座工厂投入了70亿美元。
The street sees that they spend $7,000,000,000 for a factory.
一座工厂每年可以生产一百万辆汽车。
A factory can produce a million vehicles.
目前每辆车的毛利润约为7200美元，这意味着他们用70亿美元建的工厂，一年内就能收回投资。
And the gross profit per vehicle right now is about 7,200, which means that they put up a factory for 7,000,000,000 and they're making their investment back in a year.
其他人做不到这一点。
Nobody else can do that.
福特每售出一辆电动车亏损约36,000美元，而特斯拉每辆车的毛利润约为7,200美元。
Ford is losing 36,000 or so on each EV sold while Tesla is making 7,200 or so gross profit per vehicle.
我不太喜欢用获客成本和长期价值之类的说法来看单位经济效益，诸如此类的东西。
And that's the that's like the I'm not a fan of, like, looking at unit economics in terms of CAC and and and long term value and and and blah blah blah.
但我非常推崇思考他们所销售产品的单位经济效益。
But I am a huge fan of thinking about what are the unit economics of, like, the what they're selling.
你知道的吧？
You know?
如果你卖一罐汽水，可口可乐每罐能赚多少？
If you're selling a soda can, how much is Coke making per can?
对吧？
Right?
如果你开一家麦当劳，每家店能赚多少？
If you have a McDonald's, how much is it making per restaurant?
如果你在考虑特斯拉，那么它每个工厂能赚多少呢？因为工厂才是它的核心产品。
If you're thinking about Tesla, well, how much is it making for each factory, which really is its core product?
是工厂吗？
Is it the factories?
你知道吗？他们每建一个工厂能赚多少？
You know, how much are they making per factory that they they put up?
那值多少钱？
And what's that worth?
你知道吗？这个的现值是多少？
You know, what's what's the present value of that?
所以我认为，理解这一点非常重要——当你把特斯拉看作一家电子和软件公司时，就会有不同因素起作用，比如赖特定律，还有热力学第二定律，对理解这家公司也至关重要。
So I think it's super important to understand that this you know, when you when you think about Tesla as an electronic and software company, different things come into play, like like Wright's law and second law of thermodynamics is also super important to understanding this company.
所以你说过，这家公司有很多优势。
So you've said that there are a lot of there are a lot of things going for the company.
对吧？
Right?
我的意思是，他们正处于向电动汽车大规模转型的早期阶段。
I mean, they they're in the early stages of this massive migration towards electric vehicles.
他们在电力存储和发电方面非常强大。
They're very formidable in power storage and generation.
还有你提到的这些其他独特的潜在机会。
There are all these other kind of unique optionalities that you've talked about.
比如，你曾说过，他们最终可能可以授权自己的自动驾驶技术，即完全自动驾驶技术。
Like, you've you've said that it may be that they can eventually license their technology for self driving vehicles, full self driving vehicles.
因此，这里有巨大的上升空间。
So there's a lot of tremendous upside.
那么，假设我们认同这一点。
So let's say we buy that.
但与此同时，市场却在告诉我们，这里存在一些严重的问题。
But then at the same time, the market is telling us that there's something deeply wrong.
对吧？
Right?
昨天《纽约时报》刊登了一篇文章，标题为《特斯拉的困境引发对其不可战胜性的质疑》。
There was an article in the New Times yesterday that was headlined Tesla's troubles raise questions about its invincibility.
文章指出，特斯拉的股价已从2023年7月左右的299美元跌至今天的约172美元。
And they were pointing out the stock's fallen from $2.99 back in, I think, July 2023 to about 172 today.
我们现在说的是2024年3月下旬。
We're talking in in in late March twenty twenty four.
所以这篇文章可能还要几周才会发布。
So it'll probably be a few weeks before this comes out.
显然，随着外界对特斯拉的观感发生转变，出现了各种问题。
So there are all of these there's this tendency, obviously, as the momentum in terms of perception of Tesla has changed.
一直以来都存在批评声音。
There's always criticism.
销量增长率正在放缓。
Sales growth is the sales growth rates are slowing.
像宝马和比亚迪这样的品牌正在向市场大量推出电动汽车。
The there are all these brands like BMW and BYD that are flooding the market with electric cars.
马斯克显然是一个极具争议的人物，人们总是说他精力过于分散、缺乏专注。
Musk is obviously an incredibly divisive figure, and people always say he's too thin stretched and unfocused.
我想他那超过500亿美元的薪酬方案最近被法官否决了，而《纽约时报》则抱怨自2020年以来特斯拉没有推出任何新车型。
And I guess his his pay package for over $50,000,000,000 got struck down by a judge recently, and the New York Times is complaining that there have been no new models of the car since 2020.
你对这一切怎么看？
What do you make of all this?
这只是一个在合理价格买入更多股票的机会，还是说这里真的出了什么问题？
Is this just an opportunity to buy more at a reasonable price, or is there something that's gone wrong here?
首先，我们实际上确实在当前价位买入了更多股票。
Well, first of all, we we actually did buy more around current prices.
这些论点，至少大部分——除了那500亿美元的薪酬方案——听起来都像是自公司上市以来你就能读到的那些老生常谈。
And these arguments, most of them at least, except for the 50,000,000,000 compensation package, most of these arguments sound like the same arguments that you could go back and read since the company went public.
如今的负面文章可能比2011、2012或2013年时少一些，但它们的内容却惊人地相似，而股价却从上市以来上涨了约15000%。
They're probably probably less negative articles today than there were around 2011, 02/1213, but they seem very, very similar, and yet the stock continues to go higher, up 15,000 or so percent since its IPO.
几乎每一支成长型公司，从亚马逊到微软，都会经历股价停滞的时期。
And what is what's the case with pretty much every growth company from Amazon to Microsoft, any any great growth company, there are always periods when the stock is not going up.
对吧？
Right?
自特斯拉上市以来，已经经历了多次大幅下跌。
There have been so many massive drawdowns in Tesla since its IPO.
比如，自上市以来，至少有十几二十次跌幅达到40%以上，或者至少30%的跌幅。
Like, there's about to be couple dozen, at least 40% drawdowns since its IPO or at least 30% drawdowns.
而这正是投资成长型公司的常态。
And that's just part of investing in growth companies.
没有哪家企业是一路直线上升的。
No no businesses.
我写过一篇题为《复利的力量与挑战》的论文，可以在我们的网站上找到。
And I and I wrote a I wrote a paper called the power and challenges of of compounding, which is on our website.
成长型公司的股价从来不会直线前进。
Growth companies just don't go in in straight lines.
它们的走势更像是一级一级地向上攀升。
They they move more like in a in a step formation.
如果你看特斯拉的长期走势图，特斯拉的走势就像亚马逊和微软一样，呈阶梯式上升。
And if you look at the kinda longer term chart of Tesla, Tesla's just kind of in a step formation just like Amazon was and Microsoft was.
我们再多聊聊你那篇关于复利的力量与挑战的论文吧。
Let's talk a bit more about that paper on the power and challenges of compounding.
你提到过论文中的一个统计数据：从1957年开始，投资于标普500的美元在66年间增长了630倍。
You mentioned the statistic in there that you talked about before that over sixty six years, dollars invested in the S and P five hundred in 1957 would have grown six thirty times.
于是你提出了一个非常重要的问题：为什么那么多人不是百万富翁，甚至不是亿万富翁呢？
And so then you raised this very important question where you said, why then are there not more millionaires or even billionaires?
我认为，你的答案是，绝大多数投资者无谓地中断了复利过程。
You said the answer, I believe, is because the vast majority of investors interrupt the compounding process unnecessarily.
你还引用了查理·芒格的话：焦虑的资金永远赢不了。
And you quote Charlie Munger saying nervous money never wins.
你能谈谈不打断复利过程的重要性吗？
Can you talk about the importance of simply not interrupting the compounding process?
因为这似乎是你投资哲学的核心，无论投资的是特斯拉还是其他任何东西。
Because it seems very central to your philosophy of investing, whether it's in Tazor or anything else.
我可以告诉你，我犯过很多错误。
Well, I can tell you that I've made so many mistakes.
我从11岁就开始投资了，不过我说的‘投资’是广义的。
I've been investing since I was 11 years old, and I use the term investing loosely.
你知道，我11岁的时候，投了大约100美元。
You know, when I was 11 years old, I invested, like, a $100.
但到了青少年后期，我实际上持有相当大一笔联合健康集团的股票。
But when I was in my late teens, I actually had a fairly sizable chunk of UnitedHealthcare.
不知为什么，我花了很多时间研究管理式医疗公司，也就是上市的管理式医疗企业。
For whatever reason, I was spent a lot of time on managed care companies, publicly traded managed care companies.
我当时把相当多的钱投进了联合健康集团。
And I've put quite a bit of money for me at the time in UnitedHealthcare.
结果不久之后，它们遭遇了大规模抛售。
And, they had this they had a massive sell off, like, shortly thereafter.
我慌了，把所有股票都卖了。
And I panicked, I sold everything.
这只股票现在肯定涨了数百倍。
And that stock must be up hundreds of times.
我决定不去看，因为那太痛苦了。
I decided not to look because I it's too painful.
但我卖出之后，这只股票肯定已经涨了数百倍。
But that stock must be up hundreds of times since I sold that.
多年来，在我参与股票投资的三十多年里，我卖出了很多其他公司。
I've sold many other companies over my you know, over the years, the three decades plus that I've been involved in in equities.
我过早地卖出了很多公司。
I've sold many companies prematurely.
我逐渐意识到，这才是真正的代价。
And what I came to realize that that's the real cost.
我最近在工作中和彼得·基夫进行了一次很棒的对话，他称之为‘沉默的杀手’。
The these Peter Peter Keefe, who I had this wonderful conversation with recently at work, calls it the silent killer.
对吧？
Right?
过早地卖出那些优秀的复利机器。
Selling great compounding machines too early.
所以我这一生中多次犯过这个错误，现在我意识到，这确实是一个巨大的成本。
So I've made that mistake many, many, many times in my life, and I've come to the point where I realized that that's that's a huge, huge, huge cost.
所以你不应该无谓地打断复利过程，但说起来容易做起来难。
So you don't wanna interrupt the compounding process unnecessarily, but that's easier said than done.
那你怎么做到呢？
To like, how do you do that?
我有自己的方法来应对，而且这个方法还在不断进化，但这并不容易。
And I have my own system for doing that, and it's an evolving system, but that's not easy.
你提到特斯拉面临的大量负面新闻，但其他持仓也存在不少负面报道。
And you're talking about all of the negative press regarding Tesla, but there's plenty of negative press regarding other holdings.
你持有的时间越长，遇到的负面文章就越多。
And the longer you hold something, the more you're gonna come across negative articles.
你还会遇到一些朋友试图影响你的判断。
You're gonna come across friends who will try to influence you.
但与此同时，你必须保持完全开放的心态。
And but at the same time, you have to be totally open minded.
对吧？
Right?
你不想陷入承诺一致性的偏见中。
You don't wanna get just in this commitment consistency bias.
你不想有承诺一致性，同时也不希望不必要的中断复利过程。
Don't you don't wanna have commitment consistency, and you you you also don't wanna interrupt the compounding process unnecessarily.
所以这并不容易。
So it's not easy.
对吧？
Right?
查理先生说，为什么一定要容易呢？
And mister Charlie said, why should be easy?
你向彼得·基夫提了一个重要的问题，我真的很建议我们的听众去更多了解彼得——他曾是这个播客的嘉宾，是一位杰出的长期投资者，一位了不起的投资者，也是一个非常有思想的人。
You asked an important question to Peter Keefe, who's I I would really encourage our listeners to learn more about Peter was a guest on this podcast and is is just an amazing long term investor, incredible investor, and very thoughtful person.
我会把我们的访谈内容放在节目笔记里。
I'll I'll include our interview in the in the show notes.
但当克里斯托弗采访他时，我昨晚在听拉蒂斯沃克会议的访谈录音。
But when Christopher was interviewing him, I was listening I was listening to a recording of the interview last night from the Latticework conference.
你问他，如何抵制出售复利机器的诱惑？
You said to him, how do you resist the temptation to sell compounding machines?
你多大程度上能接受市场价格超过你对内在价值的估算？
And to what degree are you comfortable letting market value exceed your estimate of intrinsic value?
我不禁想，你能否自己回答这个问题，因为这在我看来是一个极其困难、极具挑战性的问题。
And I wonder if you could answer that yourself because that seems to me an immensely difficult, challenging question.
当那些你钟爱的、优秀的公司变得非常昂贵时，你该怎么办？
What to do when these companies that you love, that are great businesses, become really pricey?
你是怎么看待这个问题的？
And how how do you think of that?
因为我在你过去给股东的信中看到过，你曾责备自己在Trupanion股价再次翻四倍前就卖掉了它。
Because I've seen you in the past in your letters to shareholders blaming yourself for selling Trupanion before it quadrupled again.
我看到你一直持有某些被人们抱怨的优质成长股。
I've seen you kind of holding onto some of these great growth stocks that people complain about.
同时，你可以说，你在某种程度上也犯了和你父亲同样的错误——买入这些备受喜爱但价格高昂的股票，并持有高度集中的投资组合，只不过你坚持持有它们的时间要长得多。
And then at the same time, you could say that in a way you're guilty of the same thing that your dad was guilty of, of buying these very high priced stocks that were beloved and having a concentrated portfolio, although you stay wedded to them for much longer.
你能为我们解释一下吗？
How do you unpack that for us?
是的。
Yeah.
我认为投资是一段非常个人化的旅程，你必须找到与你自身性格和投资方式相契合的风格。
So I think investing is a super, super personal journey, and you have to figure out the style that meshes or aligns with your own personality and your own approach to investing.
我减少过早卖出优质复利机器可能性的方法，是持有相当数量的持仓。
The way I have minimized the chance of selling great compounding machines too early is to have a fair number of positions.
所以，是的，从大多数人对投资组合的看法来看，我的持仓非常集中，但与其他一些基金经理相比，我的组合也相当分散。
So, yeah, I'm I'm I'm very concentrated with respect to how most people would think about the portfolio, but I'm also pretty diversified with respect to some other managers.
所以我们目前大约有21个持仓。
So we have about 21 holdings today.
我发现，持有更多股票实际上让我能够坚持持有那些可能正在经历困难时期或处于高估阶段的企业。
I have found that having more holdings actually allows me it allows me to be able to hold on to businesses that might be experiencing difficult times or might be in periods of overvaluation.
如果我把所有钱都投在一只股票上，比如反过来讲，那要避免打断复利过程就会困难得多，而如果有21家公司就不一样了。
If I had all of my money, let's say, you go the opposite direction, all of my money in one stock, it's gonna be a lot harder to not interrupt the compounding process than it would be if you had 21 companies.
因此，这21只股票的分散投资是关键因素，它帮助我坚持持有这些复利机器。
So that's that diversification across 21 companies is the key ingredient as that that has helped me hold on to compounding machines.
以特斯拉为例，你知道，我们的平均买入价大约是41.66美元。
And so if you think about Tesla, you know, our average price our average purchase purchase price around $41.66.
它曾经比现在高得多。
It was much, much higher than it is now.
我已经经历过不同的阶段，但如果我把所有钱都押在一只股票上，我还能做到这一点吗？
And I've ridden through different periods already, But would I be able to do that had I had all of my money in one stock?
那会困难得多。
It'd be a lot harder.
但当你拥有21台引擎在同时运转，持续创造内在价值时，我认为至少对我来说，当企业暂时表现不佳或出现回撤时，坚持持有它们要容易得多。
But when you have 21 engines firing, you know, and building intrinsic value over time, I think that it's, at least for me, it's a lot easier just to hold on to them when, you know, the businesses might not be firing on all cylinders or when there might be a drawdown.
你在股东信中解释过，我本周早些时候读过，这21只股票有一个共同点。
You've explained in your shareholder letters, which I was reading earlier in the week, that there's a common denominator among those 21 stocks.
这些公司本质上都是极其优质的公司，通常在未来可预见的时期内，销售额和每股收益都以高于平均水平的速度增长，并且往往具有高资本回报率和在庞大市场中持续再投资的能力。
That basically, are exceptionally high quality companies that are typically growing sales and earnings per share at above average rates for the foreseeable future, and they tend to have high return on capital and ability to reinvest into large addressable markets.
我最近查看时，你的前五大持仓是谷歌、亚马逊、苹果、好市多和特斯拉，顺序我不确定，可能完全搞反了。
And so your your top five positions when I was looking most recently were Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Costco, and Tesla, in no particular order that I may have got the order totally totally reversed.
你曾写道，我们希望与世界的发展方向保持一致，与世界级的管理团队保持一致，并与可扩展、可销售且有用的技术保持一致。
You've you've written, we wanna be aligned with where the world is headed, aligned with world class management teams, and aligned with scalable, saleable, and useful technology.
所以当你看这些公司时，我们之前已经深入讨论过特斯拉。
So when you look at these we we talked in some depth about Tesla.
当你观察亚马逊、谷歌和微软这样的大型持仓时，它们如何体现你核心的理念——即与世界的发展趋势保持一致，从而让你获得强大的顺风助力？
When you look at these big holdings like Amazon, Alphabet, and Microsoft, how do they illustrate this very central theme for you of of trying to align yourself with where the world is headed so that you have these big tailwinds at your back?
在范德比尔特和洛克菲勒的时代，铁路是经济的基础设施。
During the time of Cornelius Vanderbilt and, you know, Rockefeller and so forth, the the railroads were really the infrastructure of the economy.
而今天，我认为经济的基础设施存在于一些大型科技公司中，因为它们是云计算的支柱，而世界正朝着这个方向发展。
And today, the infrastructure of the economy, I believe, resides in some of these large tech companies because they are the backbone of the cloud, and that is where the world is moving.
弗兰克·斯利特曼做过一次简短的采访。
Frank Slitman had this short interview.
我忘了是在哪里看到的。
I forget where it was.
可能是在CNBC或者其他地方，他提到我们正处于数据从服务器向云端迁移的初期阶段。
Maybe it was on CNBC or somewhere, but he had mentioned how we're so in the infancy of the migration of data from server to cloud.
因此，我们希望参与这场从服务器向云端的数据迁移。
And so we wanna participate in that migration of data from server to cloud.
我们希望与当今经济的基础设施保持一致，就像杰克·戈尔德和科尼利厄斯·范德比尔特时代那样。
We want to align ourselves with the infrastructure of the economy today as it was during the time of Jake Gould and Cornelius Vanderbilt and and so forth.
这就是为什么我们持有 Alphabet、微软、苹果等公司的部分股份，这不仅是原因之一，也是部分原因。
That's why we own partly not not just just why, but partly why we own companies like Alphabet and Microsoft and Apple and so forth.
当你看Visa和万事达卡这样的公司时，你认为有哪些顺风因素在推动它们？
And when you look at things like Visa and Mastercard, like, what what are the tailwinds you're writing there?
有趣的是，这些顺风因素其实并没有真正改变。
Interestingly, the tailwinds haven't really changed.
我们几乎是在万事达卡首次公开募股时就买入了，而维萨卡在上市后不久我们也买入了。
We bought Mastercard pretty much at its IPO, and we bought Visa not too far after Visa went public.
万事达卡上市时，这些利好因素还没有像今天这样被充分理解，但它们本质上是相同的利好因素。
When Mastercard went public, some of these tailwinds were not as understood as they are today, but they're they they were the same tailwinds.
万事达卡上市时，我认为它的市盈率大概是15倍左右，可能更低。
So when Mastercard went public, I think it went public probably, like, at 15 times or so earnings, Maybe less.
也许当时我的估算收益是12倍左右。
Maybe, like, 12 times my estimate of earnings at the time.
而现在它的估值要高得多，但这些利好因素并没有改变。
And now it's, you know, much, much, much higher, but the tailwinds are the same.
这些利好因素就是全球从现金社会向无现金社会的转型。
The tailwinds are the migration of of, as the world moves from a cash based society to a cashless society.
基本上就是这么回事。
That's pretty much what it is.
它们本质上就像收费运营商。
And it they're they're they're essentially a toll operator.
对吧？
Right?
除了中国之外，他们能从全球每一起借记卡和信用卡交易中抽取一笔费用。
They get a a piece of every single debit and credit card transaction on the planet except in China.
所以，他们本质上是一家轻资产公司，几乎从每笔交易中收取费用。
So they're they're like, you know, a a very asset light company that that collects a fee on pretty much every transaction.
所以我们持有这两家公司。
So we own both of them.
所以我正在努力思考，我们应该向听众传达的一些核心原则，那就是你们在投资实体。
So I'm trying to I I'm trying to think about some of the essential principles that we should be sharing with our listeners that you're you're investing in bodies.
对吧？
Right?
有一个理念是不要打断复利的增长。
So there's this there's this idea of not interrupting compounding.
还有一个理念是买入这些优秀的复利型企业，并让它们持续增长。
There's the idea of buying these great compounders, letting them run.
还有一种偏好，就是不作为。
There's this preference free in inaction.
但正如你在所有信件中所说，关键在于时机。
But as you say in in all of your letters, it's all in the swing.
因此，当遇到好机会时，也要有全力出击的意愿。
So there's also this willingness to swing really hard when there's a good pitch.
所以你在2020年2月或3月新冠疫情期间买入了特斯拉这样的股票。
So so you bought something like Tesla during the COVID downturn in March 2020, February 2020.
我得说，那真的非常艰难。
So I have to say, like, that was so hard.
真的很难，因为当时股价暴跌。
Like, really hard because the stock was cratering at the time.
我爸爸有个说法，你得让脑袋和胃反过来。
It's just it's you just my dad had this expression, like, you have to reverse your head with your stomach.
说起来容易做起来难。
Easier said than done.
所以当你的直觉告诉你卖出时，你必须用理性去思考买入。
So when your stomach says sell, you have to use your head and and think about buying.
你觉得呢
Do you think
有意识地这样做吗？
about that consciously?
我当时
I was
当然了。
Oh, sure.
你会观察自己的身体，然后想，天啊。
Are you looking at your body and thinking, oh, man.
我感觉不舒服。
I feel sick here.
我确实经常在感到非常不适时，不过这种情况并不常见。
I I I definitely like, when I am very it's it's not often that I'm I feel uncomfortable.
这种情况不常发生。
It's not often.
但当我对某件事感到不安，或者接到大量关于某家公司可能下跌的电话时，我就知道这几乎已经接近底部了。
But when I am uncomfortable about something or I get a lot of calls about a particular company that might be going down, I know that's very close to the bottom.
通常确实如此。
It usually it usually is.
所以我强迫自己多买一些。
And so I forced myself to to buy more.
我记得，当时新冠疫情已经爆发，特斯拉股价暴跌，而我们就在那时买入了。
And I remember, like, I remember sitting because COVID started COVID already broke out and Tesla was was cratering when we we bought it.
我们当时在阿迪朗达克山上，因为离开了城市。
And we were up in the Adirondacks because we left the city.
我记得坐在这家酒店里，阿迪朗达克山的小书桌前，按下买入按钮，在大约60个账户上都进行了操作。
And I remember sitting at this hotel and, you know, this little desk in the Adirondacks and pushing the buy button and doing that across 60 accounts or so.
那真的非常非常艰难。
That was really, really hard.
哈里，我们先短暂休息一下，听听今天赞助商的话。
Harry Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors.
格雷格，不，这不是你的错觉。
Greg No, it's not your imagination.
风险和监管正在加剧，客户现在要求提供安全证明才能开展业务。
Risk and regulation are ramping up and customers now expect proof of security just to do business.
这就是为什么Vanta是一个变革者。
That's why Vanta is a game changer.
Vanta自动化你的合规流程，将合规、风险和客户信任整合到一个基于AI的平台上。
Vanta automates your compliance process and brings compliance, risk, and customer trust together on one AI powered platform.
无论你是为SOC 2做准备，还是在运行企业GRC项目，Vanta都能让你保持安全并推动交易进行。
So whether you're prepping for a SOC two or running an enterprise GRC program, Vanta keeps you secure and keeps your deals moving.
与其追逐电子表格和截图，Vanta为你提供跨三十五多个安全与隐私框架的持续自动化。
Instead of chasing spreadsheets and screenshots, Vanta gives you continuous automation across more than thirty five secondurity and privacy frameworks.
像Ramp和Ryder这样的公司使用Vanta后，审计时间减少了82%。
Companies like Ramp and Ryder spend 82% less time on audits with Vanta.
这不仅仅是更快的合规，更是为增长争取更多时间。
That's not just faster compliance, it's more time for growth.
如果我现在正在运营一家初创公司或扩大团队，这正是我想要的平台类型。
If I were running a startup or scaling a team today, this is exactly the type of platform I'd want in place.
前往 vanta.com/billionaires 开始使用。
Get started at vanta.com/billionaires.
那就是 vanta.com/billionaires。
That's vanta.com/billionaires.
当我开始自己的副业时，突然感觉一夜之间必须变成十个人，扮演各种不同的角色。
When I started my own side business, it suddenly felt like I had to become 10 different people overnight wearing many different hats.
从零开始做一件事可能令人兴奋，但也极其令人不知所措和孤独。
Starting something from scratch can feel exciting, but also incredibly overwhelming and lonely.
因此，拥有正确的工具至关重要。
That's why having the right tools matters.
对数百万企业来说，这个工具就是 Shopify。
For millions of businesses, that tool is Shopify.
Shopify 是全球数百万企业的电商平台，占美国电子商务总量的10%，涵盖从初创品牌到家喻户晓的企业。
Shopify is the commerce platform behind millions of businesses around the world and 10% of all e commerce in The US from brands just getting started to household names.
它为你提供了一站式解决方案，涵盖库存、支付和分析等功能。
It gives you everything you need in one place, from inventory to payments to analytics.
因此你无需在多个不同平台之间来回切换。
So you're not juggling a bunch of different platforms.
你可以使用数百个现成的模板搭建一个精美的在线商店，Shopify 还内置了多种实用的AI工具，能帮你撰写产品描述，甚至优化产品摄影。
You can build a beautiful online store with hundreds of ready to use templates, and Shopify is packed with helpful AI tools that write product descriptions and even enhance your product photography.
此外，如果你遇到任何问题，他们提供屡获殊荣的24/7客户支持。
Plus, if you ever get stuck, they've got award winning twenty four seven customer support.
今天就与业内最佳的商业伙伴Shopify一起开启你的事业，立即注册每月1美元的试用期，访问 shopify.com/wsb。
Start your business today with the industry's best business partner, Shopify, and start hearing Sign up for your $1 per month trial today at shopify.com/wsb.
前往 shopify.com/wsb。
Go to shopify.com/wsb.
那就是 shopify.com/wsb。
That's shopify.com/wsb.
亿万富翁投资者通常不会把资金存放在高收益储蓄账户中。
Bill Billion dollar investors don't typically park their cash in high yield savings accounts.
相反，他们常常采用机构投资者常用的被动收入策略——私人信贷。
Instead, they often use one of the premier passive income strategies for institutional investors, private credit.
如今，得益于Fundrise收入基金，这种被动收入策略已向所有规模的投资者开放，该基金已吸引超过6亿美元投资，分配收益率为7.97%。
Now the same passive income strategy is available to investors of all sizes, thanks to the Fundrise Income Fund, which has more than $600,000,000 invested and a 7.97% distribution rate.
随着传统储蓄利率下降，私人信贷在近几年成长为万亿美元级别的资产类别也就不足为奇了。
With traditional savings yields falling, it's no wonder private credit has grown to be a trillion dollar asset class in the last few years.
立即访问 fundrise.com/wsb，只需几分钟即可投资Fundrise收入基金。
Visit fundrise.com/wsb to invest in the Fundrise Income Fund in just minutes.
该基金2025年的总回报率为8%，自成立以来的平均年总回报率为7.8%。
The fund's total return in 2025 was 8% and the average annual total return since inception is 7.8%.
过往业绩不预示未来表现。
Past performance does not guarantee future results.
截至2025年1月23日的当前分配收益率。
Current distribution rate as of twelvethirty onetwenty twenty five.
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