RWH047：与布鲁斯·乌舍尔共谈气候变化时代的投资

在一些地区，天气非常炎热，所以空调都在运行。

It's, some parts the country, very warm, so air conditions are on.

或者在冬天，天气非常寒冷，供暖系统就会开启，等等。

Or in the winter, it gets very cold, so heating goes on and so on.

我们在下午会消耗大量电力。

We we draw a lot of electricity in the afternoons.

我们晚上睡觉时，电力需求就会下降。

We go to bed at night, our electricity needs drop.

是的。

Right.

在任何时刻，我们的用电需求和电力供应都必须保持平衡。

And depending on any moment, any time, our demands and our supply have to be kept in balance.

这是一件非常困难的事情。

This is a really tough thing to do.

因此，比如在全国各地有数百座我们所谓的峰值电厂。

And so for example, there are hundreds of what we call peaker plants all over the country.

这些是使用天然气发电的设施。

These are natural gas fired facilities for electricity.

几乎一整年，它们都处于关闭状态。

Fed's been almost the entire year, turned off.

我们并不使用它们。

We don't use them.

你会想，这是什么疯狂的资产啊？

You think, what kind of crazy asset is that?

它们只在需求极高的罕见日子里启用，这种情况被称为用电高峰。

They only get used on those rare days when demand is so high, they call it peaks.

你会启动这些峰值电厂。

You turn on the peaker plants.

让我们从一个事实开始：我们目前的模型并非完美的供需失衡。

So let's start from the fact that the the model we got right now is not a perfect imbalance.

它运行起来既简单又便宜。

Oh, it's so simple and and so cheap to run.

这实际上已经是件非常困难的事情了。

It's actually already a really difficult thing we're doing.

而现在我们又增加了风能和太阳能这些间歇性电源。

And now we're adding these intermittent sources of power, wind and solar.

在电力供应占比达到约20%之前，这根本不会改变储能问题。

Well, up to about 20% of power generation, this doesn't really change the storage issue at all.

换句话说，你可以向电网中增加更多间歇性电源，并像今天一样进行平衡。

In other words, you can add more intermittent power to the the grid and you balance it just as we do today.

到目前为止，这一直是个无关紧要的问题。

It's it's so up until now, it's been kind of a nonissue.

它现在成了一个问题，因为太阳能和风能太便宜、太有吸引力了。

It's becoming an issue because solar and wind are so cheap and attractive.

换句话说，这是个好问题，但终究还是个问题。

In other words, it's a good problem to have, but it's a problem.

所以我说，这种批评其实是正确的。

So that's where I say that, you know, this criticism is both, correct.

这是一个问题。

It's a problem.

它正在成为一个问题，因为我们有了如此优秀且高效的发电方式。

It's becoming a problem because we have such a good a good power generation source.

所以我们现在有了一个超级便宜、可大规模扩展的能源来源。

So now we've got this super cheap source that we can scale.

而且，是的，当你开始向电网中加入越来越多的可再生能源时，就会遇到一些间歇性问题，有时被称为‘鸭子曲线’问题，这需要更深入的讨论。

And, yes, the more you start to add to the grid, you start to run into some intermittency problems, sometimes called the duck curve problem, which is is a longer conversation.

但这里有一个有趣的要点。

But here's the interesting point.

解决这个问题有很多方法。

There's a lot of ways to solve that problem.

这并不意味着我们必须花费数万亿美元来建造大量电池。

It doesn't necessarily mean we gotta spend trillions of dollars building a lot of batteries.

让我给你一个简单的例子。

And let me give you one simple no.

不是那么简单，但这是一个例子。

Not not simple, but one example.

因此，在我们发展可再生能源的同时，道路上的电动汽车数量也在迅速增加。

So at the same time we're growing rental energy, we're also rapidly growing the number of electric vehicles that are on the road.

那么，什么是电动汽车？

So what's an electric vehicle?

电动汽车是一种带轮子的能量存储设备。

Electric vehicle is an energy storage device on wheels.

这本质上就是一个带轮子的大电池。

That's essentially a large battery on wheels.

事实证明，在美国，这个能量存储设备平均每天只使用48分钟，其余时间都处于闲置状态。

Well, it turns out that energy storage device on average in America is used 48 a day, twenty three hours a day plus.

它处于闲置状态。

It's it's idle.

当然，当它闲置时，如果需要更多电力，你可以给它充电，但你也可以让它放电。

And, of course, while it's sitting idle, you could charge it if it needs more power, but you can also discharge it.

这被称为车网互动。

That's called vehicle to grid.

我们拥有这些能源存储设备，它们很快将遍布全国、遍布道路，能够成为平衡电网这一解决方案的一部分。

So we've got these we've got these energy storage devices that will soon be all over the country, all over the roads, that can be part of this solution to balance the grid.

实现车网互动并非易事，其中存在一些缺点和复杂性，需要加以考虑。

Now it's not a simple thing to do, and and there's certain drawbacks and complexities you need to account for in vehicle to grid.

但这只是众多应对间歇性问题（这确实是个真实问题）的解决方案之一。

But it's just one example of how this intermittency issue, which is a real issue, is likely to get resolved.

此外，还有许多其他技术正在兴起，将有助于平衡电网。

And there are a lot of other technologies coming along that will help balance that.

所以我认为这是一个合理的担忧。

So I think it's a valid concern.

我对未来我们是否能妥善应对这个问题并不太担心。

I I'm not that concerned about whether or not we'll be able to to take care of it going forward.

让我告诉你，我比那些文章更担心的是什么。

Let me tell you what I am concerned about much more than those articles.

我真的很担心这个问题。

I I'm really concerned about it.

在对话一开始，我们谈到必须重建经济。

Beginning of a conversation, we talked about we gotta rebuild the economy.

结果发现，建造东西——这是一个技术性词汇，叫‘东西’。

Well, turns out that building stuff it's a technical word stuff.

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，你知道，在美国建造任何东西都真的很难。

I really mean You know, building anything in America is really hard to do.

之所以很难，是因为我们没有一个有利于建设的环境。

And it's really hard to do because we do not have a building friendly environment.

无论是联邦法规，还是更常出现的州级、地方社区或县级、市级的规则和监管，都让建设变得异常困难。

The rules and regulations, whether those are federal regulations, but much more often at sometimes at the state level, any of that local community or county level, city level, making readily difficult to build.

因此，太阳能、风能以及所有相关项目的一个大问题就是输电线路。

So a big problem with solar and wind and everything is transmission lines.

连接到电网。

Connecting to the grid.

这并不是，你知道的，没问题。

It's not, you know, okay.

保持电网平衡的间歇性，这是一个挑战。

Keeping the grid in balance intermittency, that's a challenge.

但你甚至无法连接到电网。

But you can't even connect to a grid.

那才是更大的挑战。

That's a much bigger challenge.

因为试图在国家范围内建设输电线路，会遭到各种阻挠和拖延。

Because try to build a transmission line in the country, it'll get blocked and sewage every which way.

而我更担心的是，我们知道该做什么。

And that's my much bigger concern here is that we know what we need to do.

我们有资金和产品。

We have the money and the products.

我们从物理上讲，我的意思是，当我说做不到时，指的是在合理的时间内无法完成。

We can't physically I mean, when I say can't, we can't do in a reasonable period of time.

你可以用六个月建成一个太阳能项目。

You You can build a solar project in six months.

我说的是大型太阳能项目，几百兆瓦规模的。

I'm talking about a big solar project, hundreds of megawatts.

你实际上可以在几个月内完成建设。

You can physically do it in a matter of months.

但要让这个项目获得许可并接入电网，却要花上很多年。

It'll take you many years to get that project permitted and connected to the grid.

让我们短暂休息一下，听听今天赞助商的发言。

Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors.

好的。

Alright.

我想让你们想象一下，在夏季高峰期待在奥斯陆的三天。

I want you guys to imagine spending three days in Oslo at the height of the summer.

你将拥有漫长的白昼、令人惊叹的美食、漂浮在奥斯陆峡湾上的桑拿房，而且你每一次交谈的对象，都是正在塑造未来的人。

You got long days of daylight, incredible food, floating saunas on the Oslo Fjord, and every conversation you have is with people who are actually shaping the future.

这就是奥斯陆自由论坛的真正含义。

That's what the Oslo Freedom Forum is.

从2026年6月1日开始，奥斯陆自由论坛将迎来它的第十八年，汇聚来自世界各地的活动家、技术专家、记者、投资者和建设者。

From June 1 through the third twenty twenty six, the Oslo Freedom Forum is entering its eighteenth year bringing together activists, technologists, journalists, investors, and builders from all over the world.

其中许多人正站在历史的最前沿。

Many of them operating on the front lines of history.

在这里，你可以亲耳听到人们如何用比特币应对货币崩溃，如何用人工智能揭露人权侵害，以及在审查和威权压力下构建技术的故事。

This is where you hear firsthand stories from people using Bitcoin to survive currency collapse, using AI to expose human rights abuses, and building technology under censorship and authoritarian pressures.

这些不是抽象的概念。

These aren't abstract ideas.

这些是人们当下正在实际使用的工具。

These are tools real people are using right now.

你将与大约2000位非凡的人物同处一室——异见者、创始人、慈善家、政策制定者——这些是你不仅会聆听，还会共进晚餐的人。

You'll be in the room with about 2,000 extraordinary individuals, dissidents, founders, philanthropists, policymakers, the kind of people you don't just listen to but end up having dinner with.

在三天的时间里，您将体验到富有感染力的主舞台演讲、关于自由科技与金融主权的动手工作坊、沉浸式艺术装置，以及在会议结束后仍持续进行的深入对话。

Over three days, you'll experience powerful main stage talks, hands on workshops on freedom tech and financial sovereignty, immersive art installations, and conversations that continue long after the session's end.

这一切都将在六月的奥斯陆举行。

And it's all happening in Oslo in June.

如果这听起来像是您会喜欢的场合，那您可真幸运，因为您可以亲自到场参加。

If this sounds like your kind of room, well, you're in luck because you can attend in person.

标准票和赞助者票可在 oslofreedomforum.com 购买，其中赞助者票提供深度参与机会、专属活动以及与演讲者的小团体交流时间。

Standard and patron passes are available at oslofreedomforum.com with patron passes offering deep access, private events, and small group time with the speakers.

奥斯陆自由论坛不仅仅是一场会议，它是一个理念与现实交汇的地方，是那些亲历未来的人们正在构建未来的地方。

The Oslo Freedom Forum isn't just a conference, it's a place where ideas meet reality and where the future is being built by people living it.

你是否曾想探索在线交易的世界，却一直不敢尝试？

Ever wanted to explore the world of online trading, but haven't dared try?

期货市场如今比以往任何时候都更加活跃，而 Plus500 正是理想的入门之选。

The futures market is more active now than ever before and plus five hundred futures is the perfect place to start.

Plus500 让您接触到广泛的投资工具。

Plus five hundred gives you access to a wide range of instruments.

标普500、纳斯达克、比特币、天然气，还有更多。

The S and P five hundred, NASDAQ, Bitcoin, gas, and much more.

探索股票指数、能源、金属、外汇、加密货币等。

Explore equity indices, energy, metals, Forex, crypto, and beyond.

通过简单直观的平台，你可以随时随地，直接用手机交易。

With a simple and intuitive platform, you can trade from anywhere, right from your phone.

最低存入100美元，体验你一直期待的快速便捷的期货交易。

Deposit with a minimum of $100 and experience fast accessible futures trading you've been waiting for.

看到交易机会了吗？

See a trading opportunity?

账户开通后，只需两步点击即可交易。

You'll be able to trade it in just two clicks once your account is open.

不确定自己准备好了吗？

Not sure if you're ready?

没关系。

Not a problem.

Plus 500为您提供无限量的免费模拟账户，内含图表和分析工具，供您练习使用。

Plus 500 gives you an unlimited risk free demo account with charts and analytic tools for you to practice on.

凭借二十多年的丰富经验，Plus 500是您通往市场的门户。

With over twenty years of experience, Plus 500 is your gateway to the markets.

访问 plus500.com 了解更多信息。

Visit plus500.com to learn more.

期货交易存在亏损风险，并非适合所有人。

Trading in futures involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

并非所有申请人都能通过审核。

Not all applicants will qualify.

Plus 500，让交易更胜一筹。

Plus 500, it's trading with a plus.

如果您经营企业，最近可能也产生过同样的想法。

If you run a business, you've probably had the same thought lately.

我们如何让人工智能在现实世界中真正发挥作用？

How do we make AI useful in the real world?

因为潜在收益巨大，但靠猜测进入其中却风险极高。

Because the upside is huge, but guessing your way into it is a risky move.

借助甲骨文的NetSuite，您今天就能让AI发挥作用。

With NetSuite by Oracle, you can put AI to work today.

NetSuite是超过43,000家企业信赖的头号AI云ERP系统。

NetSuite is the number one AI cloud ERP trusted by over 43,000 businesses.

它将您的财务、库存、电商、人力资源和客户关系管理整合到一个统一的系统中。

It pulls your financials, inventory, commerce, HR, and CRM into one unified system.

而这种互联互通的数据，正是让您的AI变得更智能的关键。

And that connected data is what makes your AI smarter.

它能自动化日常任务，提供可操作的洞察，帮助您降低成本，同时自信地做出快速的AI驱动决策。

It can automate routine work, surface actionable insights, and help you cut costs while making fast AI powered decisions with confidence.

现在，借助NetSuite AI连接器，您可以自由选择任何AI工具，直接连接您的真实业务数据。

And now with the NetSuite AI Connector, you can use the AI of your choice to connect directly to your real business data.

这并非某个附加功能，而是深度融入您企业运营系统的AI。

This isn't some add on, it's AI built into the system that runs your business.

无论您的公司年收入达到数百万甚至数亿美元，NetSuite 都能帮助您保持领先。

And whether your company does millions or even hundreds of millions, NetSuite helps you stay ahead.

如果您年收入至少达到七位数，请免费获取他们的商业指南《揭开人工智能的神秘面纱》，访问 netsuite.com/study。

If your revenues are at least in the 7 figures, get their free business guide, Demystifying AI at netsuite.com/study.

这份指南可在 netsuite.com/study 免费获取。

The guide is free to you at netsuite.com/study.

netsuite.com/study。

Netsuite.com/study.

好的。

All right.

回到节目。

Back to the show.

我非常好奇，您如何看待像伯克希尔·哈撒韦这样的公司？它们通过伯克希尔·哈撒韦能源公司大力投资可再生能源，显著推动了风能和太阳能等清洁能源的发展。

I'm very curious what you make of, say, a company like Berkshire Hathaway, which has these enormous investments in renewables through Berkshire Hathaway Energy, where they're obviously doing a great deal to invest in clean power through wind and and solar and the like.

但与此同时，它们又对石油和天然气等传统能源领域做出巨大投入，比如持有西方石油公司或雪佛龙的大量股份——我知道雪佛龙在直接空气捕集技术方面也做了许多创新工作。

And then at the same time, these this massive commitment to legacy energy sources like oil and gas through things like its huge stake in Occidental Petroleum or or Chevron, which I know is also doing a lot of very innovative stuff to do with direct air capture technology.

我有一部分想法认为，显然我们必须向可再生能源做出巨大的转变。

There's a part of me that thinks, okay, so it's clear that we have to make a really dramatic shift towards renewables.

我另一部分想法认为，像巴菲特和芒格这样的人所关注的，确实有其现实依据——我们仍然极度依赖化石燃料。

There's a part of me that thinks, well, there's clearly a pragmatic argument that people like Buffett and Munger are tapping into that we are still tremendously dependent on fossil fuels.

与此同时，我几天前看到新闻，埃克森美孚宣布以大约600亿美元收购一家页岩气巨头，这进一步加深了其对化石燃料生产的依赖，而与此同时，我们所有人却都在谈论转向更清洁的能源。

And then at the same time, I see the news a few days ago that ExxonMobil announced that it's acquiring a shale giant for something like $60,000,000,000 which again is deepening its reliance on fossil fuel production at the same time as we're all talking about shifting to cleaner energy.

我真的不知道该如何理解这种矛盾，该如何看待在迈向更清洁能源的同时，又不得不承认经济严重依赖这些高污染能源之间的现实张力。

And I don't really know how to place this in context, how to think about the pragmatic tension between becoming cleaner and at the same time, recognizing the fact that the economy is hugely dependent on these dirtier forms of energy.

首先，我同意。

So first of all, I I agree.

我们确实极度依赖化石燃料，这种依赖并不是说只要我们做对了事，就可以立刻停止使用。

We are hugely dependent and not dependent as in, you know, if we just, you know, did the right thing, we wouldn't use this anymore.

不。

No.

我的意思是，如今在燃料方面，可供飞行选择的替代方案非常少。

I mean, there's very few alternatives to to flying today in terms of fuels.

可持续燃料有那么一点点，但微乎其微。

A little bit of sustainability ish fuel, but it's tiny.

大多数汽车仍然由汽油等燃料驱动。

Most automobiles still are powered by gasoline and and and so on.

你明白吗？

You know?

如果我们突然停止使用化石燃料，我们就得倒退到，你知道的，穴居生活了。

If we we suddenly just stop using fossil fuels, we'd be back in, you know, living in caves.

而且，抛开伦理考量不谈，这完全不切实际。

And and and just bringing aside the ethical considerations is totally impractical.

那么这意味着什么呢？

So what does that mean?

首先，这意味着，是的。

It first of means, yes.

我们消耗大量化石燃料，并且在未来一些年里仍将继续如此。

We use a lot of fossil fuels, and we will continue in some years ahead.

更重要的是，我们对此应该做些什么？

If anything is more importantly, what should we be doing about it?

根据我所做的分析，我认为无论是通过道德论点还是金融上的撤资论点来施压企业，都是错误的做法。

And my belief in the analysis that I've done is that pressuring companies either through a moral argument is the wrong thing to do or even through financial, you know, divestment arguments.

我们不应该为这些公司提供资金。

You know, we we we shouldn't finance these companies.

这两种方式都相当无效。

Both of those are pretty ineffective.

首先，这些公司本质上是为了盈利而设计的。

First of all, more like, are designed to make profit.

这就是市场运作的方式。

That's the way the market works.

因此，试图说服它们做正确的事，虽然利润率有帮助，但不足以让任何人彻底放弃这个行业。

And so trying to convince them to do the right thing, the margin helps, but it's it's not gonna completely cost someone to to abandon the industry.

第二个原因是，试图切断对化石燃料的资本供应。

And the second reason is, you know, trying to sort of turn off the capital tabs to fossil fuels.

这其实行不通，因为全球90%的化石燃料供应由国家控制。

It's not really gonna work because, first of 90% of fossil fuels in the world is the supply is controlled by nation states.

所以，你知道，这不会有效。

So, you know, that's not gonna work.

其次，我们最近刚进行过一次大规模实验——一场可怕的实验，就是因乌克兰战争而切断对俄罗斯的能源供应。

And secondly, we we we tried it just recently with a big experiment, a horrible experiment, which was to turn off the taps in Russia because of the war in Ukraine.

因此，我们有了一个现实案例：在乌克兰被入侵后，美国政府和欧洲政府试图阻止俄罗斯出售石油和天然气。

So we have a real life example where after the invasion of Ukraine, the US government and European governments have tried to essentially stop Russia from from selling oil and gas.

这根本行不通。

It's the finest to work.

而且，总的来说，这并不奏效，因为这些东西是可以替代的，总会有人购买。

And, you know, by and large, it doesn't work because this stuff's fungible and someone else buys it.

他们以折扣价购买，但依然会买。

And they buy it a discount, but they still buy it.

那么，这一切意味着什么？

So what does all that mean?

这意味着，如果你希望加速从化石燃料向无污染能源的转型，我们就需要创造替代品。

It means that if you want to if you want to speed the transition from fossil fuels to non polluting, we need to create substitutes.

这就是人们所关注的。

That's what people react to.

当我提到替代品时，意思是你要为产品的最终用户提供的另一种产品，最好是更好的产品。

When I say substitute, substitute, it it means means you you need to give the ultimate end user of the product another product and ideally a better product.

唯一能让石油和天然气公司停止钻探的原因，就是看到他们的客户群正在流失。

That's the only thing that gives oil and gas companies to stop drilling for oil is when they see their customer base going away.

坦白说，国际能源署——代表国际能源公司，也就是化石燃料公司——确实看到了这一趋势。

And frankly, the IEA, which represents the international energy companies, really the fossil fuel companies, they do see that coming.

他们预测供应量将下降，因为他们已经看到了这些替代品的出现。

They're predicting declining supply because they're seeing these substitutes.

例如，在发电领域，由于可再生能源的发展，我们将开始减少使用天然气来发电。

So for example, electricity generation, we will start to use less natural gas and power electricity because because of renewables.

在交通领域，我们将开始减少使用汽油。

In transportation, we're gonna start using less gasoline.

我们仍然会使用化石燃料、石化产品以及其他相关产品。

We're still gonna use fossil fuels or petrochemicals and other other issues.

因此，这里真正的影响不是道德影响，也不是资本影响。

And so the real the real impact here is not the moral impact, and it's not the capital impact.

而是产品层面的影响。

It's the product impact.

我的意思是，关于特斯拉今天是不是一个好投资，或者埃隆·马斯克如何花他的钱，我甚至都不想评论。

I mean, Tesla I I I don't even say about whether Tesla's today a good investment, not a good investment, or, you know, how Elon Musk is spending his money.

但我可以告诉你，特斯拉在改变碳排放趋势方面所做出的贡献真的令人惊叹。

But I will tell you that what Tesla has done to change the arc of emissions is is really incredible.

现在，比亚迪和其他公司当然不再是孤军奋战了，因为人们正在购买电动汽车，而不是内燃机汽车。

And now BYD and other companies, they're certainly not alone anymore because now people are buying electric vehicles instead of instead of internal combustion engine.

这才是减少对化石燃料依赖的方式。

And that's how you reduce fossil fuel reliance.

是的。

Yeah.

而且我认为你在书中提到，交通运输占美国二氧化碳排放量的约28%。

And I I think you pointed out in the book that transportation accounts for something like 28% of US carbon dioxide emissions.

所以，拥有像特斯拉这样真正令人想购买的好产品——不是因为这么做很道德，而是因为它本身是一辆很酷的车——这能带来巨大帮助。

So actually having a great product there like the Tesla that you actually wanna buy not necessarily because it's a righteous thing to do, but because, it's actually kind

有点

of a

酷的车，这非常有帮助。

cool car is a is a huge help.

是的。

Yeah.

不过我不想说，威廉，这并不意味着我完全不同意你关于撤资的观点。

Now what I don't wanna say, William, it doesn't mean that I totally disagree with you the idea of the divestment.

明白吗？

Okay?

换句话说，如果投资者觉得他们不想投资化石燃料公司，因为这些公司的价值观与他们的不符，那我就会说，你为什么还要做这样的投资呢？

In other words, if an investor feels that they do not wanna invest in fossil fuel companies because their values are not aligned with that, then I say, why would you make that investment?

不要持有这些股票。

Don't hold those those stocks.

不要持有这些公司。

Don't hold those companies.

我的意思是，威廉，我不抽烟。

I mean, you know, William, I I don't smoke.

我不太喜欢吸烟。

I'm not a huge fan of smoking.

你知道，自从纽约市禁止吸烟后，去酒吧和餐厅感觉好多了，我更喜欢这样。

I you know, it's really nice to go to bars restaurants in New York City when since they no longer allow smoking, and I'm not I'd prefer that.

而且，我不太愿意把钱投到烟草公司。

And, you know, I I don't really wanna put my money into tobacco company.

这不符合我。

It's not me.

所以，我不投资烟草行业完全没问题。

And so I'm perfectly fine with not investing in tobacco.

还有很多人的看法和化石燃料类似。

And there's plenty of people who feel sort of the same way about fossil fuels.

不过化石燃料有点不同，因为即使撤资了，他们几乎肯定仍在使用这种产品，因为目前还没有替代品。

Now fossil fuels are a little bit different because even after divesting, they're almost certainly still using the product because they don't have a substitute yet.

再说，我的例子就是飞行。

And, again, my example is flying.

如果你今天坐飞机，你肯定在燃烧航空燃油。

If you fly on a plane today, you're certainly burning jet fuel.

但这并不意味着你必须投资于这种产品。

But that doesn't mean you have to invest in the product.

如果不出资符合你的价值观，那你就应该果断撤资。

And if if it aligns with your values not to invest, you should go ahead and divest.

但不要以为撤资就能解决气候变化问题，因为你并不能。

But don't think by divesting, you're solving climate change because you're not.

但这么做本身并没有错。

But there's nothing wrong with doing it.

我认为这样做的理由是充分的。

I I think there's good reasons for it.

是的。

Yeah.

我被您多年来提出的几个观点深深触动了。

I I was struck by a couple of arguments that you've made over the years.

其中一个就是您引用了耶鲁大学著名的投资经理大卫·斯文森的话，他说：

One of one of which when you quoted Yale's famous investment manager, David Swenson, who said, look.

与公司管理层直接对话是应对投资组合中气候风险最有效的方式。

Direct dialogue with corporate management is the most effective means of addressing climate change risk in the portfolio.

您指出，是的，一旦你卖出股票，你就失去了影响管理层的能力。

And you pointed out that, yeah, if you sell the stock, you kind of lose your ability to influence management.

在某些情况下，撤资可能反而适得其反。

It may actually be that divestment is in some ways counterproductive.

但另一方面，您又引用了学者兼活动家比尔·麦吉本那句精彩的话，他在推动这一撤资运动中发挥了关键作用：如果破坏气候是错误的，那么从这种破坏中获利也是错误的。

But then on the other hand, you have this beautiful quote from the academic and activist, Bill McKibben, played a very key role in starting this divestment movement, who said, If it's wrong to wreck the climate, then it's wrong to profit from that wreckage.

这真是一个非常有趣的观点。

And that's a really interesting line.

你如何看待麦肯宾的这一洞见？

What do you think of that as an insight from McKibben?

首先，这是一句非常有力的话。

Well, first of it's a very powerful line.

对吧？

Right?

要反驳这句话确实很难。

And it's pretty hard to disagree with that line.

我同意这一点。

I I agree with it.

所以对我来说，这又回到了价值观的问题上。

And so to me, it comes back to the values point.

换句话说，如果你觉得自己的价值观是不想成为加剧这一状况的一部分，举个例子，我不希望钱流向这个方向，那就别这么做。

In other words, if you feel that your values are, don't wanna be part of making a situation worse to ex in other words, I I don't feel like money should be going in this direction, then don't do that.

你知道的？

You know?

这完全正确，我完全同意，我能理解为什么人们会觉得从增加温室气体中获利是不对的。

That's that's absolutely I totally agree, and I can see why people would feel, you know, profiting off of additional greenhouse gases.

对许多人来说，这看起来确实是道德上错误的。

It can seem can seem it's for many people is is morally wrong.

我支持这一点。

I support that.

但撤资，我在一本书里详细讨论过。

But divestment, I go through a book in much much more detail.

我今天有时间跟你聊，但这对减少排放实际上没什么影响。

I got time for you today doesn't really make any difference in terms of reducing emissions.

不投资石油和天然气公司，并不会减少排放。

You're not gonna reduce emissions by not investing in oil and gas company.

正如斯旺森指出的，这甚至可能适得其反。

It can be counterproductive as as Swanson pointed out.

你不再有投票权了。

You no longer have a vote.

你不能再与管理层沟通了。

You can no longer talk to management.

你无法影响管理层了。

You can no sway management.

有一些理由认为，这种舆论可能会对你产生一些不利影响。

There's some some reasons to think that that traffic could can work against you a little bit.

我对这一点持观望态度。

I'm on a fence about that.

我认为他们无论怎么做都无所谓。

I don't think they they either way.

但再次强调，这并不是应对气候问题的解决方案。

But, again, it's not a climate solution.

这纯粹是一个基于价值观的决定。

It's it's it's a it's a it's a values based decision.

就我而言，就这样了。

And as far as I'm concerned, that's it.

说到价值观，你提出的五个推动资本大规模流向气候变化解决方案的趋势中的第三个，是不断演变的社会规范。

Speaking of values, the third trend out of your five trends that are driving this massive shift of capital into climate change solutions is evolving social norms.

自从你2004年左右开始教书以来，已经教过数千名学生了。

You've taught thousands of students since you started teaching in, I think, 2004.

我想你还有两个二十多岁的孩子。

I think you also have two children in their twenties.

我想知道，你观察到的态度和规范有哪些变化？这些变化如何实际影响企业及其行为？

And I'm wondering what you see in terms of evolving attitudes and norms and how this is actually having a very practical impact on corporations and their behavior.

尤其是在年轻人中，社会规范发生了巨大变化。

So there's been a big evolution in in norms, particularly among younger people.

我认为这很大程度上源于一种认知——气候变化是真实的，他们亲眼看到了其物理表现，并意识到自己的这一代人无论如何都必须面对这个问题。

And I think a lot of that is recognition or that climate change is real back to the physical manifestation and recognize that their generation is really gonna have to deal with this for better or worse.

而且，通过教学，我有一些亲身经历，比如今年在哥伦比亚商学院教一个小班课程时，顺便说一句，这所商学院相当传统。

And, you know, there's an I've had an anecdotal experience through teaching, you know, some teaching smaller class in this area to to this year where here at Columbia Business School, which, by the way, is a pretty traditional business school.

对吧？

Right?

或者，你知道，我们众多的知名之处之一就是价值投资。

Or, you know, or one of our many claims to fame is value investing.

而且，你知道，这远不是一个激进的自由派商学院，也不是非常大或非常重要的商学院。

And, you know, this is this is far from a a radical liberal business school or very, very major or very large business school.

今年我们开设了一门新的商业与气候变化课程，今年可能会有一半的学生选修这门课，如果我能找到更多教授来授课，人数还会更多。

We introduced a new business and climate change course this year, and we'll probably have half the class take the course this year, and we would have even more if I could just find more professors to teach it.

我的意思是，这门课严重供不应求。

I mean, it's massively oversubscribed.

这并不是因为学生说：哦，我必须选这门课，因为这是道德上正确的事情。

And that's not because students say, oh, I have to take this because it's, you know, it's a morally right thing to do.

而是因为他们看到了世界的现状和未来走向，并意识到这对他们个人、职业和商业来说可能非常重要。

It's because they see the world as it is and where it's headed, and they realize this can be a really important thing for them personally and for their careers and businesses.

所以，这只是个例。

So that's anecdotal.

许多研究表明了几个方面。

There's a lot of research showing a couple of things.

一是求职员工更倾向于选择他们认为具有可持续性的公司工作。

One is that employees looking to work in companies, are showing a marked preference to work for companies they believe are sustainable.

这其中有很多原因。

And there's a lot of reasons for that.

但归根结底，吸引最优秀的员工是企业的巨大竞争优势。

But at the end of the day, you know, getting the best employees is a big competitive advantage for companies.

所有公司都在争夺顶尖人才，这是一个明显的趋势。

All companies compete for really good employees, and, that's a big trend.

这表明，是的，这种趋势短期内不会改变。

And it suggests that, yeah, that's not gonna change anytime soon.

对吧？

Right?

员工希望为可持续发展的公司工作，这会促使企业采取更多行动提升可持续性，以吸引最优秀的人才。

It could be employees wanting to work for sample companies makes companies take more action to be more sustainable because they wanted the best people.

同样，我们在消费者身上也看到了这一点。

Similarly, we see that among consumers.

在消费者群体中，你知道，当你走进一家咖啡店，会看到很多关于咖啡是否可持续、是否有助于应对气候变化等大话题的宣传。

Now among consumers, you know, you walk in a coffee shop and there's, you know, these these big things in the world about how sustainable their coffee is and how much it's helping to address climate change and so on.

你会问自己，他们为什么要把这些贴在墙上呢？

And you ask yourself, you know, why did they put that on on a wall?

这和我咖啡的味道有什么关系？

Like, what does that do with the taste of my coffee?

答案是因为消费者喜欢这样。

And the answer is because consumers like it.

他们更偏好这样的产品。

They prefer it.

然而，证据显示，消费者普遍不愿意为可持续性支付太多额外费用。

Now the evidence is consumers are generally not willing to pay much more for it.

只有少数消费者真正愿意为可持续发展和应对气候变化多花钱。

Only a small number of consumers are really, really willing to pay up for sustainability of climate change.

但大多数企业销售的产品其实是某种意义上的可替代品，已经高度商品化了，比如咖啡。

But most businesses sell a product that's kind of, you know, it is kind of fungible, kind of kind of commoditized, you know, coffee.

市面上有很多不错的咖啡。

Good there's a lot of good coffee out there.

因此，你会看到越来越多的公司开始在可持续性属性上竞争，因为这是消费者想要的，是客户想要的。

And so you'll see you see companies more and more competing on sustainability attributes because it's what their consumers want, what their customer wants.

因此，这又推动了更多对企业层面的投资和变革。

And so, again, that's driving more investment and more change to business level.

然后你还有投资者本身。

And then you got investors themselves.

对吧？

Right?

而且，我们正看到越来越多的资金涌向那些在这些问题上表现良好的公司，几乎形成了一股洪流。

And then we've had this this increasing almost a wall of capital looking to invest in companies that do well on these issues.

这其中一部分原因就是整个ESG运动，而那又是另一个话题了。

And part of that is the whole ESG movement, which is another whole issue.

很高兴也能深入探讨一下。

Happy happy to dive into it too.

是的。

Yeah.

我们一定会谈到这一点。

We'll definitely get to that.

这是一个重要的问题。

It's an important issue.

没错。

Yep.

而且同样存在很多错误信息。

And and again, with a lot of misinformation.

我们回头再谈这个。

Let's come back to that.

但我认为，社会规范的转变如何改变企业的行为，这个问题非常有趣。

But I think this question of how shift in social norms is changing the behaviour of companies is really interesting.

我们看到许多知名企业在减少碳排放方面做出了非常雄心勃勃的承诺，声称将实现净零排放。

We've seen a lot of these businesses, very prominent businesses make really ambitious pledges that they're gonna reach net zero in terms of their their emissions.

我认为苹果公司表示将在2030年前实现净零，威瑞森在2040年，美国航空则计划在2050年达成。

I think Apple said it would get to net zero by 2030, Verizon by 2040, American Airlines by 2050.

然后你看到像福特和星巴克这样的公司也加入了进来。

Then you've seen companies like Ford and Starbucks and the like.

你还提到微软，我认为它承诺要清除自1975年公司成立以来所排放的所有碳。

And then you mentioned that Microsoft, I think, committed to removing all of the carbon it's emitted since it was founded back in 1975.

所以我很好奇，这些承诺究竟在多大程度上提升了它们的竞争优势？其中有多少是绿色洗白，又有多少是真正真诚的？而且鉴于每个人对这些概念的定义都截然不同，且全部属于自愿行为，这些承诺真的可衡量吗？

And so I'm curious how how these pledges actually help their competitive position and to what extent it's greenwashing and to what extent it's really sincere and to what extent it's it's even at all measurable given that everybody defines these things very differently and that it's all voluntary.

这听起来像是一个绝佳的方式，可以宣称自己道德高尚，但实际上并没有做太多实质性的努力。

Like, it sounds like a really great way to to to kinda claim that you're righteous while not actually doing that much.

没错。

That's right.

没错。

That's right.

所以我昨天专门开了一门关于这个主题的课程。

So I taught a whole course on this, a whole class on this yesterday.

我和商学院的学生们进行了一个非常有趣的三小时讨论。

It was pretty pretty interesting three hour discussion with my business school students.

你提出的所有问题都是正确的。

And, all the issues you raise are are correctly.

换句话说，有很多公司都在做出这些承诺。

So in other words, you've got a lot of companies making these pledges.

他们为什么要做这些承诺？

Why are they making these pledges?

因为他们受到了来自各方利益相关者——比如员工、消费者等——的各种压力。

Because they're feeling pressured to do so in various ways from their various, you know, stakeholders, their employees, their consumers, and else.

说真的，这看起来更像是一个明智的战略商业决策。

Seriously, it seems to be you know, it's it's just kind of a smart strategic business decision.

其中一些公司在做出承诺时，已经有了明确的脱碳计划。

Some of them in doing so have a pretty clear plan on how they're gonna decarbonize.

一般来说，因为这些行业实现起来并不那么困难。

Generally speaking, because they're an industry where it's not so difficult to do it.

所以你看像Meta或苹果这样的公司，它们的大部分排放都来自电力使用。

So, you know, you look at a, you know, a meta or an Apple or companies like this, most of their emissions are from electricity use.

解决这个问题的方法就是投资可再生能源。

And the way to solve that is to invest in renewables.

事实上，它们甚至在投资24/7全天候的可再生能源，正在研究如何实现全天候供电。

In fact, they're even investing twenty four seven renewables, so they're figuring out how to get power twenty four hours a day.

首先，它们知道如何实现脱碳。

And first of all, they know how to decarbonize.

有一条清晰的路径可以做到这一点。

There's a clear path to doing so.

而且这些是非常非常盈利的富裕公司，因此它们有足够的资本来做到这一点。

And these are very, very profitable wealthy companies, so they have the capital to to to do this.

对吧？

Right?

对他们来说，这相当直接。

For them, it's pretty straightforward.

然后你还有其他公司，比如美国航空等，它们也做出了这些承诺。

Then you've got other companies, airlines, American Airlines, and so on, which are making these pledges.

我得假设它们确实想做出承诺，但目前还没有明确的途径能切实减少它们的排放。

I gotta go on the assumption that they want to make the pledge, but there is no clear path for them to do so at this point in a way that's clearly going to reduce emissions.

我的意思是，人们会用碳信用之类的替代方案，但这类方案是否真正有效，存在一大堆问题。

I mean, there's sort of workarounds using things like carbon credits, but those are there's a whole raft of issues as to whether or not those are actually effective and so on.

还有许多中间级别的公司，都在不同程度上进行绿色洗白，如果你愿意用这个词的话。

And And there's companies, all the companies in between that are doing various amounts of greenwashing, you to use that term.

这种情况非常普遍，因为这些自愿承诺根本没有监管。

And it's rampant because, you know, there's no regulation around these natural pledges.

你知道，如果你许下承诺，把问题推到未来，又没人监督，其实根本没有任何惩罚。

You know, if you if you make a promise and it's prolong the future and you don't read it, there's really no penalty.

而且，至少夸大自己计划要做的事，甚至在最坏的情况下，根本就是欺骗，这背后有太强的动机了。

And and there's you know, it's just such a incentive to, at the very least, exaggerate what you plan to do and in the worst, why.

所以这种情况非常多。

So there's a lot of that going on.

而且我认为还存在一定程度的无意反悔。

And I also think there's a certain amount of accidental renoshing.

我的意思是，公司们确实有计划，但在如何为某些行业脱碳方面存在很大不确定性，比如钢铁和水泥。

What I mean by that is companies, they they have a plan, but there's a lot of uncertainty about how to decarbonize certain industries, things like steel and cement.

这些行业实际上碳排放非常复杂。

These are very complex actually carbonized.

他们有计划。

They have a plan.

他们开始实施计划后，才发现自己当初的假设并不正确。

They get there, they start working on that plan, and they realize they made assumptions that weren't correct.

这并不是因为他们愚蠢。

And that's not because they're foolish.

而是因为这些技术和创新本身就非常复杂。

It's because there's a lot of complexity to these to these technologies and this innovation.

然后他们到了那一步，才发现计划并没有像他们预期的那样奏效。

And then they get there, and they realize the plan isn't gonna work the way they thought it was gonna work.

所以他们做出了承诺。

And so they made a pledge.

你知道，这是不是绿色洗白？

You know, now is that greenwashing?

还是他们本意是想做正确的事，只是结果不如预期。

Or they're trying to do the right thing, it's just not working out the way they'd hoped.

所以我认为，这类情况还有很多，也很普遍。

So you got a lot of that I think a lot of that's going on as well.

对一些公司来说，这比他们最初意识到的要困难得多，也更复杂。

For some companies, this turns out to be harder than they they realize or more complex.

所以我认为，企业之所以这么做，是因为他们感受到了巨大的压力。

So I think what's going on with companies are doing it because of all the pressure they're seeing.

此外，在欧洲等某些地区，还存在切实而严格的监管压力。

Also, in certain parts of the world like Europe, there's a real late regular regulatory pressure as well.

我认为这些公司提出净零承诺是非常棒的。

And I think I think it's fantastic these companies are coming out with net zero pledges.

为什么？

Why?

并不是因为我相信它们都会实现这些承诺。

Not because I believe they're all gonna make their pledges.

并不是因为这些承诺存在很多问题，而是因为它们迫使这些公司至少去了解自己业务中排放的状况，并且最好能采取切实有效的措施来减少排放。

Not because there is a lot of problems with them, but because it's forcing them to, at the very least, try to understand what's going on in their business to reduce emissions and at the best, actually take action that works to reduce their emissions.

有很多公司已经真正快速地减少了排放量。

And there's a lot of examples in companies that have reduced emissions, truly reduced emissions pretty quickly.

归根结底，气候变化的排放主要源于商业活动。

And, you know, at the end of the day, climate change emissions are mostly result of business activity.

企业排放了大部分温室气体，更重要的是，企业拥有改变这一状况的解决方案。

Businesses emit most emissions, and more importantly, businesses have the solutions to change it.

作为消费者，我们只能稍微改变它们的行为。

You know, as as consumers, we can change their behavior a little bit.

你知道，我可以多骑点自行车。

You know, I can bike a little more.

我在这纽约市有一辆大自行车，但这不会有什么影响。

I I have a big bike here in New York City, but that's not gonna make a difference.

真正能带来改变的是公司推出新产品，改变他们的商业模式和供应链，采取减少排放的措施。

And what's gonna make a difference is companies coming up with products and changing their their business methods, their supply chains, doing things that reduce emissions.

如果一个净零承诺能促使公司真正去关注、讨论和报告这些问题，我认为这绝对很棒。

And so if a net zero pledge is what gets a company to really work on that and talk about it and report on it, I think that's absolutely fantastic.

这正是我们所需要的。

That's just what we need.

显然，人们更加关注分析环境表现、社会表现、治理问题等ESG因素。

There's clearly much more focus on analysing factors like environmental performance, social performance, governance issues, ESG as as it's known.

我知道你一直深度参与这一运动。

And I know you've been very involved in this movement.

我知道你至少担任了哥伦比亚大学社会责任投资咨询委员会的主席。

I know for one thing, you chair, I think, Columbia University's advisory committee on socially responsible investing.

所以你就在一线，为大学董事会提供关于这些伦理和社会问题的建议。

So you're right there in the weeds advising the university trustees on these ethical and social issues.

我知道

And I know

那

that

你工作的哥伦比亚大学气候学院已与联盟伯恩斯坦合作，试图找出如何将气候风险融入投资分析中。

Columbia, the the climate school where you work has partnered with Alliance Bernstein to try to figure out how to integrate climate risks in investment analysis.

我想知道，抛开关于ESG的喧嚣和政治炒作，从实际角度来看，当你分析一家公司时，纳入这些考量能带来什么实际好处？

And I'm wondering in practical terms beyond the noise and political bluster about ESG, what you find in terms of the benefits of actually incorporating these sort of considerations when you're analysing a company.

我的意思是，当你审视一家企业并决定其现金流的韧性时，考虑环境问题显然非常明智。

I mean, when you're looking at a business and you're actually deciding how resilient are the cash flows here, it seems to be pretty smart to be considering environmental issues.

远远超越了其中涉及的政治问题。

Like, way beyond the political issues involved.

这纯粹就是务实的做法。

It's just it just seems pragmatic.

这很务实。

It's it's pragmatic.

如今ESG领域的情况既令人着迷，因为它如此荒谬，又有点令人沮丧，因为它被严重误解了。

So what's going on in ESG today is both fascinating because it's so bizarre and and also a little depressing because it's so misunderstood.

让我们再次退一步来看。

Let's first again step back.

那么，问题到底是什么？

Well, what is the issue?

ESG很简单。

ESG is simple.

这是一个非常简单的概念。

It's a very simple concept.

简单到本不该引起太多关注，那就是：如果你是一名投资者，正在考虑进行投资，你 presumably 会进行一定程度的分析。

So simple, it shouldn't really get much attention, which is if you're an investor and you're considering making an investment, you're gonna presumably do a certain amount of analysis.

你会查看该资产（比如股票或建筑）的财务状况。

You're you know, review the financials of whatever that asset is, such as stock or or, you know, building.

你会关注管理层的质量。

You're gonna look at the the quality of management.

你会关注竞争对手。

You're gonna look at competition.

你会关注增长趋势，诸如此类的东西。

You're gonna look at, you know, growth trends, all that stuff.

你所看到的是，除了进行分析之外，你还应考虑哪些环境因素会影响该资产价值，哪些社会因素可能影响该资产价值，以及哪些政府问题会影响你的资产价值。

All you see is it says, in addition to the analysis, you should also consider what environmental factors are gonna affect that asset value, what social factors might affect that asset value, and what government's issues affect your asset value.

就是这样。

That's all.

我只是多做了一点分析。

I just do a little more analysis.

多做一点工作，这才是明智的。

Do a little more work, and that's smart.

因为在我们当今所处的世界、当今的现代经济中，这些因素确实会对资产价值产生重大影响。

Because in the world we're in today, the the the modern economy we're in today, those factors can really affect asset values.

你知道吗，五十年前，大多数股票都是根据账面价值交易的，也就是资产的实际有形价值。

You know, fifty years ago, most shares traded based on book value, the actual physical value of the assets.

你只是简单地把所有的建筑、一切东西加总起来。

You just sort of added up, you know, all the buildings, everything.

这就是公司的价值，你知道的，银行里的现金数额。

That's what the company's worth, you know, amount of cash in a bank.

如今，大多数公司的价值都体现在无形资产上。

Today, most companies, the value is in in intangibles.

如果你想要考虑标普500指数之类的例子。

You know, if you wanna consider the s and p 500 or something like that.

S和G因素确实会影响无形资产。

And the s and g factors can really affect intangibles.

它们会显著影响品牌价值。

They can really affect brand value.

它们会严重影响企业的风险以及其他相关因素。

They can really affect risk to businesses and the like.

所以这其实是个明智的想法。

And so it's kind of a smart idea.

或者用最简单的话来说，假设你在买一套房子，比如第二套住房或度假屋，而这个地方可能面临潜在的洪水风险。

Or to put it in, like, really simplistic terms, you know, it's trying to buy a home, let's say, a second home, a vacation home, and let's say it's a place that's perhaps exposed to potential flooding.

你知道，我在看房的时候，应该下去，打开门，到地下室去看看。

You know, I should probably, while I'm checking out the house, go down, open the door, go down the basement.

地下室会不会再次被淹？

And does it ever flood down again?

它多久淹一次？

How often does it flood?

洪水有多严重？

How bad's the flooding?

未来洪水会更频繁吗？

What's is it gonna flood more in the future?

有没有排水泵来降低我的风险？

Is there a sump pump to reduce my risk?

你知道，如果我不去看看地下室，那我就是个傻瓜。

You know, just I'd be a fool not to check out the basement.

好的。

Okay.

而这正是ESG理念的实质。

And that's kind of what the concept of ESG is.

现在，这里就出现了误解，甚至有点奇怪的地方。

Now here's where it gets, you know, misunderstood and a little bizarre.

ESG这个概念也被那些关心气候变化的人所采纳。

The idea of ESG has also been taken up by those who care about climate change.

其他问题认为，ESG是一种帮助解决气候变化的方式，因为其核心理念是将资本引导到那些将应对气候变化的公司。

Other issues to say ESG is a way of helping solve climate change because the whole concept is to move capital into companies who are gonna address climate change.

但这并不是它的本意。

And that's not what it is.

因此，人们产生了一种想法，认为ESG会把所有这些资本都引导到它该去的地方。

And so there's this idea that ESG somehow is going to put all that capital where it needs to go.

那不是ESG。

That's not ESG.

因此，有很多人持这种观点，认为ESG的问题在于人们做得还不够。

And so there's a lot of people sort of on that side of of of the argument saying, the problem with ESG is it's people aren't doing enough of it.

他们需要做得更好、更努力。

They need to do it better and and harder.

但这恰恰误解了ESG的真正含义。

Well, that just misunderstands what what ESG is all about.

还有一群人认为，ESG的问题在于它把资金从化石燃料行业抽走，损害了经济。

And then there's another group who are saying, you know, the problem with ESG is it's taking money away from fossil fuels, and it's it's it's hurting the economy.

这种说法也不对。

And that's not true either.

这其实只是市场行为。

It's really just the market.

这是投资者试图更聪明一些，意识到我们所处的世界比过去更复杂，因为这些因素确实很重要。

It's the investors trying to be a little bit smarter, recognizing that the world we're in is more complex than the world as it was because these factors really matter.

它们对商业很重要。

They matter to business.

它们对经济很重要。

They matter to the economy.

它们对社会很重要。

They matter to society.

在未来，它们的重要性会更大。

And in the future, they're gonna matter even more.

在政治上，它现在已经被完全政治化了。

Politically, it's now been politicized completely.

到目前为止，我觉得如果我再也听不到ESG这三个字母，我也不介意。

And at this point, I think it's, you know it it wouldn't bother me if I never heard the the the the letters of ES and G ever again.

我觉得这非常有趣。

I thought it was very interesting.

我曾在2020年看过拉里·芬克在CNBC的采访。

I I watched Larry Fink on CNBC back in 2020.

我昨天又重看了一遍，他现在已经成了那些对此事非常政治化的人的靶子，

I was rewatching it yesterday, and he's become a kind of punching bag for people who are very political about this as

他为什么再也不想听到ESG这三个字母了？

Why he doesn't wanna hear the letters yes and g ever again?

我知道。

I know.

没错。

Exactly.

对于不了解的人来说，他是贝莱德的首席执行官，而贝莱德是全球最大的资产管理公司，并且已经大力涉足这一领域。

And, you know, for people who don't know, he's the CEO of BlackRock, which is the biggest asset manager in the world and has made a huge move into this area.

他只是说，气候风险就是投资风险。

And he just said climate risk is investment risk.

在我看来，这显然再正确不过了，如果你想拨开迷雾，真正应该做的就是把这些因素纳入考量。

And that seems to me just so obviously true that if you want to cut through the nonsense, you want to actually be saying You want to include these factors.

然后他更激进、但也非常发人深省地说，对吧？

And then more outrageously, but very thought provokingly, Right?

所以，你在哥伦比亚的一位同事，希瓦·拉贾戈帕尔，希望我没有记错。

So a colleague of yours at Columbia, Shiva Rajgopal, I hope I'm sorry.

但是，是的，我

But, yes, I

知道。

know.

他为《福布斯》撰写了一篇非常有趣的分析，探讨了可口可乐在用水生产糖、碳排放以及未回收塑料瓶等造成的无效浪费等方面带来的负面社会影响，我想是这样。

Who wrote this very interesting analysis for Forbes about the negative social impact of Coca Cola in terms of things like water use to produce sugar and carbon emissions and the generation of unproductive waste from things like unrecycled plastic bottles and the like, I guess.

还提到了含糖饮料导致的糖尿病病例。

To mention diabetes cases caused by sugary drinks.

希拉的观点是，实际上这些社会成本超过了可口可乐当时约2350亿美元的市值。

And Xi'ra's argument was that actually the social costs are greater than what was then, I think, the $235,000,000,000 market cap of Coca Cola.

我只是觉得，这种观点非常有趣——人们开始意识到，这家公司之所以更脆弱，是因为它并没有为人类带来福祉。

And I just thought that was a really interesting line of argument where you're starting to see people say, this company is much more vulnerable because it's not doing good to mankind.

你觉得呢？

What what do you think?

你对这个有什么看法？

What's your reaction to that?

嗯，确实就是这样。

Well, exactly that's exactly right.

他在文章中的分析有点儿，你知道的，他是在极力推动某个观点，而这正是他的风格。

And analysis in his articles is is a little bit you know, he's he's pushing a point pretty hard, and, that's that's his style.

我喜欢和Shiva合作。

And, I like working with with Shiva.

但我认为，从根本上讲，我完全同意。

But I think fundamentally, I completely agree.

ESG的核心其实就是：由于这些过去从未被定价的因素，企业面临哪些风险？

And that's kind of what ESG comes down to is what are the risks in business because of these other factors that currently, historically, have not been priced in?

也许这些因素永远都不会被定价。

And maybe it will never be priced in.

也许可口可乐和那些生产含糖饮料的公司永远不会在意，或者说，根本无视与这些饮料相关的惊人医疗开支。

Maybe Coca Cola and the companies that make, these sugary drinks will you know, we'll never care for the fact that, or really, the health bill that's associated with them is is outrageous.

但你知道，说迟早会报应不爽，这个观点很有说服力。

But, you know, it's a pretty argument to say at some point, you know, the chickens are gonna come home in the roost, so to speak.

是的。

Yeah.

我们应该关注这一点。

We should care about that.

总有一天，这会影响这家企业的经营。

And one day, that's going to affect that business.

如果你认为这要几十年后才会发生，你也许会觉得有道理，但从投资角度来看，这无关紧要。

Now if you think that's gonna be decades in the future, you may say that's you're right, but it doesn't matter to an investment perspective.

因为几十年后才发生的事情，对今天资产的价值影响其实很小。

Because anything decades in the future does not affect really the value of an asset much today.

这可能涉及房地产。

It may be real estate.

而这也让我们重新回到气候变化的问题上，因为直到最近，所有影响都显得太遥远了。

And that's where we come back to climate change because up until pretty recently, everything was too far in the future.

你知道吗，马克·卡尼在担任英格兰银行行长时，发表过一篇著名的演讲，谈到了他所说的‘远期的悲剧’。

You know, Mark Carney, when he was governor of the Bank of England, had he made a famous speech where he talked about what he called the tragedy of the horizon.

这其实是对‘公地悲剧’一词的巧妙化用，用以描述气候变化问题。

And when that is, a play on the words tragedy of the commons, which is to describe the climate change problem.

所谓‘远期的悲剧’，是指当时气候变化看起来太过遥远，即便你是投资者，也会想：看吧。

The tragedy of the horizon was climate change was fell so far in the future at that point that even if you were an investor, you think you can go, look.

这些问题确实真实而严重，我们必须认真对待，并将其纳入我们的分析中。

This stuff is real and serious, and we gotta think about it and incorporate it into our analysis.

你做了计算，发现它太过遥远，根本不会对今天的资产价值产生实质影响。

You did the math, and it was so far away that doesn't really affect asset values today.

所以你会觉得：没什么好担心的。

So you go, not much to worry about.

但现在，这个远期的界限已经发生了变化。

Well, that trades the horizon.

这个远期目标现在已经近得多。

That horizon is now much closer.

我们现在开始看到它影响资产价值，也开始看到这种风险正在变得真实。

And we're now starting to see it affect asset values, and we're starting to see how that risk is becoming real.

正如你所说，我曾说过气候风险就是投资者风险，现在这些数字开始显现了。

And to your point, to quote from my saying climate risk is investor risk, and now those numbers are starting to show up.

是的。

Yeah.

这让我感到很有趣。

It was interesting to me.

我最近去伦敦参加了一个黑石公司关于房地产的活动并发表演讲。

I I I went to London recently to speak at a BlackRock event about real estate.

黑石公司的一位顶级人物，他们的全球策略师正在谈论驱动他们大量投资的四大宏观力量，其中之一就是脱碳。

And one of the top people at BlackRock, their global strategist was talking about the four mega forces that drive a lot of their investments, and and one of them was decarbonization.

所以这是他们所做事情的一个巨大驱动力。

So it's it's it's a huge driver of what they're doing.

但其中一位基金经理不经意间提到，首次出现了一种情况：如果你未能考虑到这些因素，房地产可能会完全失去价值。

But one of one of their money managers sort of mentioned in passing, he was like, well, for the first time, you could actually see a property losing all of its value because you fail to take into account these these factors.

听起来不可能。

Sounds impossible.

不过为了澄清一下，有时候有人会跟我说，气候变化会摧毁所有这些资产价值，所以我绝不会碰这个或那个行业等等。

Now just just to be clear, you know, sometimes you have people say to me, well, climate change, you know, it's gonna wipe out all these values, and and, hey, I would never touch this sector or that sector and so on.

这并不正确。

And that's not true.

我们必须将一切放在重要性的情境中来考量。

We do have to put everything in the context of materiality.

因此，对某些企业来说，这些因素目前并不那么重要。

And so for some businesses, these factors aren't that material at the moment.

我们之前谈过苹果公司。

You know, we talked about Apple before.

苹果公司对气候变化的暴露程度并不高，而且他们有能力实现脱碳。

Apple is not terribly exposed to climate change, and they kind of they can afford to decarbonize.

其他公司则面临很高的暴露风险。

Other companies are very exposed.

因此，我们需要确保理解不同企业当前和未来所面临问题的重要性。

And so we do need to, you know, make sure we understand the materiality of the problem both today and in the future for for different businesses.

并不是所有情况都一样。

It's not all the same.

有些东西之所以是很好的投资，仅仅是因为它们价格太低了。

And and things can be great investments just because they're so cheap.

我有几个朋友是知名对冲基金经理，他们一直在关注煤炭股，因为他们觉得，是的。

So I have a couple of friends who are well known hedge fund managers who've been looking at coal stocks because they're like, yeah.

我可以以一倍市盈率、两倍市盈率，或者更低的价格买入，简直便宜得离谱。

I can get them at one times earnings, two times earnings, whatever it is, like, incredibly cheap.

我完全理解，资产价值确实很低，或者只是普通水平，但在未来几年内，这并不会产生太大影响。

Totally get the asset value really low or it's modest, but within the next several years is not gonna make that much difference.

当然，这也取决于你是什么样的投资者。

You know, obviously, it also depends what kind of investor you are.

如果你是日内交易者，那就无关紧要了。

If you're a day trader, it's irrelevant.

是的

Yeah.

对吧？

Right?

如果你是，比如说，一个典型的基金经理，投资周期是几年，那这个问题就开始变得重要了。

If you're, you know, a typical, I would say, fund manager, you know, couple year horizon, it's it starts to become relevant.

如果你是在规划退休或养老金，这些因素很可能非常相关。

And if you're someone who's sort of planning your retirement or pension funds, probably these factors are very relevant.

所以时机在这里是个大问题。

And so timing is this is is a big deal here.

这确实引出了我想和你探讨的一个总体话题：如何在这个领域进行投资，因为显然存在一些巨大的机会。

So this does get at this general topic that I wanna explore with you of how to invest in this arena because there are some tremendous opportunities clearly.

你在书中提到，有各种不同类型的资金可以用来参与这个领域。

And and you mentioned in your book that there are various different types of of funds that you can use to play this stuff.

所以有化石燃料排除基金。

So there are fossil fuel free funds.

对吧？

Right?

我认为道富银行推出了一只非常受欢迎的ETF，跟踪标普低碳化石燃料指数。

I think State Street launched a very popular ETF that tracks an S and P fossil fuel free index.

这是一种撤资策略，人们可以说，是的，我不打算投资煤炭、原油、天然气和页岩气之类的资产。

So that's a kind of divestment approach where people can just say, yeah, I'm not gonna invest in coal and crude oil and natural gas and shale gas and the like.

然后还有这些主题型基金，你关注的是少数几个非常强劲的趋势，比如电动汽车、可再生能源，或者你可以称之为气候解决方案基金。

Then then there are these these thematic funds where you're looking for for a few really powerful trends, whether it's electric cars or or renewables, climate solution funds, I guess you would call them.

对于我们的听众——普通投资者来说，该怎么做呢？

What's an investor to do for our listeners, regular investors?

我的意思是，我们的许多听众确实是非常资深的专业投资者，但也有很多人不是，我们无法接触到风险投资基金和私募股权基金。

I mean, we have clearly, lots of our listeners are also very, very sophisticated professional investors, but lots of us are not, and we don't have access to venture capital funds and private equity funds.

你该如何布局，既避免被突然成为搁浅资产的旧有资产拖垮，又能在这场向低碳转型的重大变革中，在未来十年、十五年、二十年里受益？

What do you do to position yourself so that you're not gonna get crushed by legacy assets that suddenly become stranded, but you're also positioning yourself to benefit over the next ten, fifteen, twenty years as this major shift towards low carbon happens.

是的。

Yeah.