RWH049：与杰·鲍恩一起跨越50年的市场碾压之旅

我的意思是，以前那种方式真的让人痛苦不堪。

I mean, it it was so painful the way it used to.

从长期视角来看，情况有所改善，但他们每个季度都会扔下一份庞大的文件，分析并评判所有经理的夏普比率、贝塔值和阿尔法值。

It's gotten better in terms of the longer term approach, but they would plop down this massive document every quarter where they would analyze and critique all of the managers and what their Sharpe ratio was and what their beta was and what their alpha was.

随便挑一个希腊字母，挑一个现代投资组合理论的术语，他们就会对每位经理进行严谨的分析，判断谁表现不佳、谁表现优异。

And, you know, pick your Greek letter, pick your modern portfolio theory term, and they would and they would do a rigorous analysis of each manager and and which one's underperforming and which one's outperforming.

然后，好吧，现在是时候把资金从这位经理转移到那位经理身上了，因为他表现不佳。

And, okay, now I think it's time to shift money from this manager to this manager because he's underperforming.

说实话，有时候这种操作每季度都发生一次，而我们却在试图采取二十年的长期策略，这简直让人头大。

And literally, I mean, sometimes this was done every quarter, and here we are trying to take a twenty year approach, and it's just it just makes your head spin.

现在坦帕是个特例。

Now Tampa is unique.

他们从未接受过这种做法。

They've never bought into that.

他们从未接受过这种做法，但其他所有市政养老基金都深陷其中，随着时间推移，顾问逐渐成为核心机构，负责寻找经理人、制定资产配置策略、聘任和解雇经理、制作季度报告、评估和考核经理表现、告知董事会何时需要更换经理，当然，这种模式存在大量扭曲的激励机制，因为它在各种原因下鼓励了频繁的 turnover 和操作。

They've never bought into that, but all these other municipal plans, the consultant became the go to entity, became more and more important as the years went by in terms of doing manager searches, doing asset allocation strategies, hiring and firing managers, producing the quarterly reports, assessing and evaluating the managers, telling the board when they need to do a manager search, and of course there are a lot of perverse incentives with that model because it kind of encourages turnover and activity, you know, for for a variety of reasons.

所以他们在市政基金行业中的影响力越来越强，这简直就是教科书式的经典案例。

So they just got stronger and stronger in terms of their grip on the municipal fund industry, and it's just textbook classic.

你知道，无论是一个一亿美元的计划还是十亿美元的计划，他们都会聘请十到二十甚至三十位经理，涵盖各种领域、各种风格，全都基于你需要分散投资的理论，而这实际上源于将波动性等同于风险的观点。

You know, you have a, whatever, a $100,000,000 plan or a billion dollar plan, they're gonna have ten, twenty, 30 managers, all different disciplines, all different styles, all based on this theory that you need to be diversified, and it, you know, equating equating volatility with risk, really, which is what it what it flows from.

对我来说，当我看到这些真实数据时，这简直就是一套导致平庸的处方。

And it's just to me, when I look at the hard data, it's just been a prescription for mediocrity, really.

让我们稍作休息，听听今天赞助商的发言。

Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors.

好的。

Alright.

想象一下，在夏季高峰期的奥斯陆度过三天。

I want you guys to imagine spending three days in Oslo at the height of the summer.

你拥有漫长的白昼、绝佳的美食、漂浮在奥斯陆峡湾上的桑拿房，而你每一次交谈的对象，都是正在塑造未来的人。

You got long days of daylight, incredible food, floating saunas on the Oslo Fjord, and every conversation you have is with people who are actually shaping the future.

这就是奥斯陆自由论坛。

That's what the Oslo Freedom Forum is.

从2026年6月1日开始，奥斯陆自由论坛将迎来第十八个年头，汇聚来自世界各地的活动家、技术专家、记者、投资者和建设者。

From June 1 through the third twenty twenty six, the Oslo Freedom Forum is entering its eighteenth year bringing together activists, technologists, journalists, investors, and builders from all over the world.

其中许多人正身处历史的最前沿。

Many of them operating on the front lines of history.

在这里，你可以亲耳听到人们如何使用比特币应对货币崩溃，如何利用人工智能揭露人权侵犯，以及在审查和威权压力下构建技术的真实故事。

This is where you hear firsthand stories from people using Bitcoin to survive currency collapse, using AI to expose human rights abuses, and building technology under censorship and authoritarian pressures.

这些不是抽象的概念。

These aren't abstract ideas.

这些是人们正在当下实际使用的工具。

These are tools real people are using right now.

你将与大约2000位非凡的人物同处一室——异见者、创始人、慈善家、政策制定者，这些是你不仅会聆听，还会共进晚餐的人。

You'll be in the room with about 2,000 extraordinary individuals, dissidents, founders, philanthropists, policymakers, the kind of people you don't just listen to but end up having dinner with.

在三天里，你将体验震撼人心的主舞台演讲、关于自由科技与金融主权的实践工作坊、沉浸式艺术装置，以及会议结束后仍持续进行的深入对话。

Over three days, you'll experience powerful main stage talks, hands on workshops on freedom tech and financial sovereignty, immersive art installations, and conversations that continue long after the sessions end.

这一切都将在六月的奥斯陆发生。

And it's all happening in Oslo in June.

如果这听起来像是你感兴趣的场合，那你可来对了，因为你可以亲自到场参加。

If this sounds like your kind of room, well, you're in luck because you can attend in person.

标准票和赞助者票已在oslofreedomforum.com开放购买，赞助者票提供深度参与机会、专属活动以及与演讲者的小范围交流时间。

Standard and patron passes are available at oslofreedomforum.com with patron passes offering deep access, private events, and small group time with the speakers.

奥斯陆自由论坛不仅仅是一场会议。

The Oslo Freedom Forum isn't just a conference.

这是一个理念与现实交汇的地方，是那些亲历者正在构建未来的地方。

It's a place where ideas meet reality and where the future is being built by people living it.

如果你经营一家企业，最近很可能也产生过同样的想法。

If you run a business, you've probably had the same thought lately.

我们如何让人工智能在现实世界中真正发挥作用？

How do we make AI useful in the real world?

因为潜在的收益巨大，但靠猜测去摸索风险极高。

Because the upside is huge, but guessing your way into it is a risky move.

借助甲骨文的NetSuite，你今天就能让人工智能发挥作用。

With NetSuite by Oracle, you can put AI to work today.

NetSuite 是全球超过43,000家企业信赖的头号AI云ERP系统。

NetSuite is the number one AI cloud ERP trusted by over 43,000 businesses.

它将您的财务、库存、电商、人力资源和客户关系管理整合到一个统一的系统中。

It pulls your financials, inventory, commerce, HR, and CRM into one unified system.

而这种互联互通的数据，正是让您的AI更智能的关键。

And that connected data is what makes your AI smarter.

它能自动化日常任务，提供可操作的洞察，帮助您降低成本，同时自信地做出快速的AI驱动决策。

It can automate routine work, surface actionable insights, and help you cut costs while making fast AI powered decisions with confidence.

现在，借助NetSuite AI连接器，您可以使用自己选择的AI工具直接接入真实的业务数据。

And now with the NetSuite AI Connector, you can use the AI of your choice to connect directly to your real business data.

这并非额外插件，而是深度融入您企业运营系统的AI功能。

This isn't some add on, it's AI built into the system that runs your business.

无论您的公司年营收是数百万还是数亿，NetSuite都能助您保持领先。

And whether your company does millions or even hundreds of millions, NetSuite helps you stay ahead.

如果您年收入达到七位数以上，请前往netsuite.com/study免费获取他们的商业指南《揭开AI的神秘面纱》。

If your revenues are at least in the 7 figures, get their free business guide, Demystifying AI at netsuite.com/study.

这份指南在netsuite.com/study上免费提供给您。

The guide is free to you at netsuite.com/study.

netsuite.com/study。

Netsuite.com/study.

当我开始自己的副业时，突然感觉一夜之间必须变成十个人，扮演各种不同的角色。

When I started my own side business, it suddenly felt like I had to become 10 different people overnight wearing many different hats.

从零开始做一件事可能令人兴奋，但也极其令人不知所措和孤独。

Starting something from scratch can feel exciting, but also incredibly overwhelming and lonely.

因此，拥有正确的工具至关重要。

That's why having the right tools matters.

对数百万企业来说，这个工具就是Shopify。

For millions of businesses, that tool is Shopify.

Shopify是全球数百万企业的电商平台，占美国所有电子商务的10%，涵盖从初创品牌到家喻户晓的企业。

Shopify is the commerce platform behind millions of businesses around the world and 10% of all e commerce in The US from brands just getting started to household names.

它为你提供了一站式解决方案，涵盖库存、支付和分析等所有需求。

It gives you everything you need in one place from inventory to payments to analytics.

所以你不需要在多个不同的平台之间来回切换。

So you're not juggling a bunch of different platforms.

你可以使用数百个现成的模板搭建一个精美的在线商店，Shopify 还内置了众多实用的 AI 工具，能帮你撰写产品描述，甚至优化产品图片。

You can build a beautiful online store with hundreds of ready to use templates and Shopify is packed with helpful AI tools that write product descriptions and even enhance your product photography.

此外，如果你遇到任何问题，他们提供屡获殊荣的 24/7 客户支持。

Plus, if you ever get stuck, they've got award winning twenty four seven customer support.

今天就与业内最佳的商业伙伴 Shopify 一起开启你的事业，立即注册每月仅需 1 美元的试用版，访问 shopify.com/wsb。

Start your business today with the industry's best business partner, Shopify, and start hearing Sign up for your $1 per month trial today at shopify.com/wsb.

前往 shopify dot com slash w s b。

Go to shopify dot com slash w s b.

那就是 shopify.com/wsb。

That's shopify.com/wsb.

好的。

Alright.

我们继续回到节目。

Back to the show.

巴菲特曾说过，商学院更奖励复杂困难的行为，而不是简单的行为，但简单的行为更有效。

Buffett said at one point, business schools reward difficult complex behavior more than simple behavior, but simple behavior is more effective.

我认为这正是问题的关键所在：让人着迷的是请来一些顾问，他们用一大堆希腊字母，让你觉得这是一门科学，你可以根据过去的收益和波动率等数据进行极其细致的管理，这种想法确实很有吸引力，但同时也是一种幻觉。

And I think that's part of what this gets at is that there's something very seductive about this idea of getting some consultants in who are gonna use all of these Greek letters, are gonna give you this sense that this is a science that you can really manage in an incredibly detailed way based on past returns and volatility and stuff like that, that somehow there's something kind of very seductive about it, but also delusional.

不是吗？

No?

没错。

Right.

你提到科学，这挺有意思。

And it's funny you said science.

我的父亲曾经反复强调他教我的第一课之一。

I mean, my father used to hammer away one of the early lessons he taught me.

他会走进我的办公室，说：你看。

He would, he would come in my office and he would say, look.

这根本不是一门科学。

This is not a science.

这是一种艺术。

It's an art.

他会说，这就像画一幅画。

He would say, it's like painting a picture.

你知道吗？

You know?

你有一个投资组合，正在构建它，如果做得好，它就像一幅美丽的画作。

You got this portfolio and you're constructing it, and if you do it right, it's just like a beautiful picture.

你知道吗？

You know?

他总是这么说。

He would always say that.

他真的总是强调，你看。

He would really always emphasize that it's look.

在他看来，这并不是一门科学。

It's not in his viewpoint, that it's not a science.

话虽如此，我还是想说一点。

Now having said that, I will say this.

管理资金的方式有很多，也有很多人用其他方法做得比我成功得多。

There are plenty of ways to manage money, and there are plenty of people who do it that have been much more successful than I that that do it other ways.

他们可能使用黑箱模型，或者有某种公式，也可能完全是技术性的，这完全没问题。

They might have a black box or they might have a formula or they might it might be completely technical and more power to them.

我们一直觉得，把它看作一门艺术而不是科学，采取自上而下的主题性方法，更让我们感到舒适。

We just always felt the most comfortable viewing it more as an art than a science and taking a, you know, a top down thematic approach.

我知道这不是适合每个人的方法，也有人恰恰相反地操作。

I know that's not for everybody, and there are other managers who do it just the opposite.

我记得彼得·林奇，我非常崇拜他。

I remember Peter Lynch, who I'm a huge fan of.

彼得·林奇。

Peter Lynch.

我记得他曾说过，天哪。

I remember him saying that, well, gosh.

我的意思是，花五分钟做经济分析就是浪费时间。

I mean, five minutes spent on economic analysis is five minutes wasted.

你知道的。

You know?

他根本不关心这种事。

He he was he he he didn't care about that kind of thing.

所以，是的，它们是不同的。

And so, yes, they're different.

做这件事有各种各样的方式。

There are all kind of different ways to do it.

我们一直更倾向于把投资看作一门艺术而非科学，这一点是我父亲深深灌输给我的。

We've just always been the most comfortable viewing it more as an art than a science, and my father really instilled that in me.

我们来多聊聊‘自上而下的主题型投资者’这个概念吧，因为正如你所说，这有点不寻常。

Let's talk more about this idea of being a top down thematic investor because as you say, is kind of unusual.

首先，你指的是什么意思？

What do you mean by it for a start?

而且，你能不能让我们了解一下，这种投资方式是如何从你非同寻常的经历、尤其是你父亲那非同寻常的经历中发展出来的？他是在七十年代滞胀时期开始的，对吧？

And and also, can you give us a sense of how this approach kind of grows out of your unusual experience and and really out of your dad's unusual experience, right, that he he started, you know, in the seventies during a period of stagflation and stuff.

所以那是一个你需要具备宏观视角的时代，否则你会变得极其脆弱。

So it was a time where, actually, you kinda needed to have some top down understanding because otherwise, you were really, really vulnerable.

没错。

Right.

我觉得说得对。

I think that's right.

我想举个例子，当你看一些数据时，比如从1966年到1982年左右，市场其实根本没有上涨。

I mean, the the example I like to use is that when you look at some of these numbers, I mean, between 1966 and, I think, '82, the market really didn't go anywhere.

它的实际回报其实是负的。

I mean, it was it actually had a negative real return.

我觉得大概是负6%。

I think negative 6%.

我们一直认为，原因在于七十年代大通胀期间糟糕的政策——糟糕的货币政策和财政政策，本质上都是政策导向的问题。

And we always felt the reason for that was really bad policies, bad monetary policy, bad fiscal policy during the, you know, the great inflation of the seventies, really policy oriented.

所以当我进入这个领域时，说来有趣，我并不是一个擅长数字的人，也不是数学型的人，我的父亲在这方面要强得多，他的思维更偏向数学和数字。

So when I came along, and it's funny because I'm not a numbers person, I'm not a math person, I'm not, I mean, my father was much more oriented towards, his brain was much more more mathy numbers.

我则完全是从另一个角度出发，更多地受到我文科背景的影响，我根本不是数学型的人，但我却被政策辩论深深吸引。

I'm much I come at it really the other way, much more, you know, my liberal arts background, and and, I'm not not a math person at all, but I was completely captivated and drawn to the policy debate.

我觉得这太迷人了，比如货币政策对金融资产意味着什么，当出现价格稳定时期时，这对股票回报又意味着什么——比如1948年到1966年那段时期，价格非常稳定，市场实现了强劲的两位数复合增长。

I just found that fascinating, you know, what the monetary policy and what that meant for financial assets, and when you had periods of price stability, what that meant for stock returns like the 1948 to 1966 when you had an incredible period from a price stability standpoint, and and the market compounded at a strong double digit rates.

而随后从1966年到1981、1982年，我们经历了实际回报为负的时期，以及七十年代的大通胀。

And then you had this period from '66 to '81, '82 where you had negative real returns, and you had the the great inflation of the of the seventies.

所以当我进入这个领域时，甚至在我上大学之前，我就已经被政策辩论和当时正在发生的事情深深吸引。

And so when I came in, I I can remember even before I was even when I was in college, I very much was drawn to the to the policy debate and what was going on.

我会和我父亲讨论这些。

And I would talk to my father.

我们花了很多时间谈论1980年的总统大选以及它意味着什么。

You know, we spent a lot of time talking about the the nineteen eighty election and what that meant.

还有七十年代末期，当阿尔弗雷德·卡恩放松航空业和卡车运输业的管制，卡特任命沃尔克，随后里根当选时，这些变化又意味着什么。

And then the end of the seventies, what that meant when Alfred Khan was deregulating the airline industry and the trucking industry, and then Carter put Volcker in, and then Reagan was elected.

当时正在发生这些关于税收、监管和货币方面的变革性变化，当我提到自上而下的分析时，我们关注的就是这些。

And just these transformational changes on the tax regulatory and monetary fronts that were coming, when I talk when I say top down, it's that's what we were really looking at.

好的。

Okay.

这会意味着什么？

What is this gonna mean?

保罗·沃尔克对金融资产意味着什么？

What is Paul Volcker gonna mean to financial assets?

他对债券市场意味着什么？

What's he gonna mean to the bond market?

罗纳德·里根在1982年和1986年的税制改革，最终以1986年《税制改革法案》告终，这又意味着什么？

What is Ronald Reagan's tax reform of of 1982 and 1986 culminated with the tax reform act of 1986?

这对金融资产、对债券市场意味着什么？

What what's that gonna mean for financial assets for the for the bond market?

八十年代监管结构的变化又意味着什么？

What what's it gonna mean that the change in the regulatory structure that was going on on in the eighties?

我总是记得，甚至在我进入这个行业之前，我就和父亲讨论过沃尔克在做什么，他认为他将打破通货膨胀的势头，我记得父亲当时说，好吧。

And what I always remember is even before I was in the business, really, really talking to my father about what Volcker was doing that that he was gonna break the back of inflation, and I remember my father thinking, okay.

如果真的发生这种情况——如果货币方面出现价格稳定，同时由于税收改革和更高效的经济带来更高的税后回报率，以及更高的实际增长率，这肯定会带来重大影响，我说的正是自上而下的视角。

This is really gonna if if if this happens, if if you've got price stability coming in on the monetary side, and you've got higher after tax rates of return on the fiscal side because of of tax reform in a more efficient economy with higher real growth rates, this could really for certain and I say top down.

所以你要先回答这些宏观问题：货币、财政、监管领域正在发生什么？这些变化可能对不同行业和板块意味着什么？然后你再逐步细化。

So you start by answering these broad questions about what's going on in the monetary world, in the fiscal world, regulatory world, what that might mean for different sectors and industries, and you break it down.

当你聚焦于那些你认为可能表现相对较好的行业和板块时，就更接近传统的估值视角了，你会使用传统的估值指标。

And then when you focus on the industries and the sectors that you think might do relatively well, then it becomes more of a traditional valuation standpoint, you where you're using traditional valuation metrics.

我记得父亲在八十年代中期会打开《价值线》期刊，说：你看可口可乐的这张图表。

And and I can remember my father, he would open up the value line, and this is in the mid eighties, and he would say, look at this chart of Campbell's soup.

你看 Campbell's 汤的这张图表。

Look at this chart of Coca Cola.

你看吉列的这张图表。

Look at this chart of Gillette.

这些都是消费品必需品公司，当时它们的股价简直一潭死水，毫无起色。

These are all staples, consumer staples companies, and they had just gone I mean, absolutely just dead, dead, dead money.

他意识到，由于货币和财政方面的变化，现在正是大力布局这些公司的好时机。

And he got a sense that because of what was going on on the monetary and fiscal fronts that this was the time to really build big positions in these companies.

他这么做了。

And he did.

他这么做了。

He did.

他为坦帕建立了仓位。

He built for for Tampa.

他在可口可乐上建立了显著的仓位。

He built significant positions in Coca Cola.

我想他的成本价是一美元五十美分。

I think the call his cost was a dollar and a half.

吉列、一些食品股、Hanes、坎贝尔汤品。

Gillette, some food to Hanes, Campbell Soup.

我的意思是，它们当时完全停滞了。

I mean, they had just flatlined.

让我告诉你，牛市始于1982年8月。

And let me tell you, the bull market started in August 1982.

巧合的是，它始于1980年税改法案中，减税政策被推迟了几年。

Coincidentally, it started when the, you know, the tax cuts were delayed for a couple years during that tax reform act of 1980.

他们逐步实施这些减税措施，而我们一直认为这是个错误，因为它推迟了人们的行动。

They phased them in, which we always felt was a mistake because it delayed people's behavior.

但一旦减税真正生效，一切就都变了。

But once they kicked in, that was it.

我的意思是，必需消费品板块真的开始腾飞，因为你可以想象，当通胀下降、利润率得以扩大时，这些公司的经营杠杆会带来怎样的变化。

I mean, the the the staple sector really just took off because you can imagine what happens to their operating leverage when those margins are able to when inflation comes down and their margins are able to expand.

我跟乔之间有个笑话，他总会跑进我办公室，因为听说沃伦·巴菲特在买入吉列和可口可乐的股票。

My fuck my fuck with Joe, he would come in my office because, you know, he would hear that Warren Buffett was taking a stake in Gillette and Coke.

他会说：‘哦，沃伦·巴菲特又在抄我的作业了。’

He's, oh, well, Warren Buffett's copying me again.

我的意思是，他总会拿这事开玩笑，但这也反映了八十年代自上而下投资风格的一个特点——当时我们非常关注消费必需品板块，因为通胀的变化可能对这些公司的盈利能力产生重大影响。

I mean, we gotta he would he would laugh about that, but that, you know, that's kind of a flavor of of the top down work in the eighties, really focusing on the this consumer staple sector because of what was going on on the inflation front and what that might mean to their the profitability of those companies.

这是一种非常独特的方法，对吧？你从宏观经济学、政治和科技趋势等广泛分析入手，关注税收政策、贸易政策、财政政策、监管政策，甚至外交政策。

Well, it's a very distinctive approach, right, where you're beginning with a broad analysis of macroeconomic and political and technological trends and the like, and you're looking at tax policy and trade policy and fiscal policy and regulatory policy and even foreign policy.

然后你会问，这会对股票和债券产生什么影响？

And then you're saying, okay, so what's this gonna mean for stocks and bonds?

这会对通货膨胀和利率造成什么变化？

What's it gonna do to inflation and interest rates?

接着你再进行自下而上的分析，看看哪些公司会从中受益？

And then you're doing the bottom up analysis to say, okay, so who's gonna benefit from this?

在那些可能受益的行业中，我们该怎么做？

And what do we wanna do in this sector that's likely to benefit?

但我有个更广泛、近乎哲学性的问题：这些东西到底有多少是可预测的？

But I guess I have this almost broader philosophical question, which is how knowable actually is any of that stuff?

我的意思是，你究竟在多大程度上能预测这些？我明白这非常重要，但我一直有个偏见，觉得除非你有特别的天赋——也许你确实有——否则要对这些东西做出预测简直难如登天。

I mean, to what extent are you I can see that it's very relevant and very important, but I I always kind of had this prejudice that it was just unless you had particular gifts, which maybe you do, it was just incredibly difficult to make any predictions about this stuff.

确实如此。

It is.

我父亲总是提醒我，关于政治局势，你别指望根据选举来预测股市走势，因为股市可能朝各种方向发展，有时根本毫无规律可言，但我想你知道我的意思吧？

And my father would always warn me that, look, in terms of the political situation, you can forget trying to predict what the stock market's gonna do based on an election because it can it can just go so many different ways, and it it it it and there can be no rhyme or reason sometimes, but they're sure I think you know what?

我认为你提出了一个非常合理的观点。

And I I think you make a very valid point.

我认为在某些时候，自上而下的分析比其他时候更有价值。

And I think there's certain times where the top down work is more valuable than other times.

八十年代的情景深深印在我的脑海里，因为我亲眼目睹了当时货币和实体经济的剧烈变化，以及它们对利率、尤其是长期利率的影响。

That was just that's so seared in my mind, the eighties, because it was such a dramatic what I saw and what he saw going on on the on the monetary and physical front and what it meant to interest rates, to long term interest rates.

我的意思是，这场长达四十年的债券牛市，其根源就始于那个时期。

I mean, this forty year bull market in the bond market, I mean, that's the genesis of it was was back then.

这在当时意味着你应该如何配置债券市场的敞口。

What what that meant in terms of how what kind of exposure you wanted in the bond market.

关于债券方面，我们还没怎么讨论过投资组合中的债券部分。

And the bond side, we haven't talked about really the bond side of the portfolio.

在坦帕，人们是这么看待债券的。

That's viewed in Tampa.

这主要是为了应对收入的不稳定性。

That's viewed really for income instability.

这不是一个时间点问题，而是一种基于利率预期的时机策略。

It's not a time it's it's a timing strategy based on interest rate anticipation.

这不是一种交易策略，但就像八十年代股票方面有一些主题一样，在债券方面，那是一个将资金投入长期债券的绝佳时期。

It's not a it's not a trading strategy, but just as there was some themes in the eighties on the stock side, on the bond side, that was such a wonderful time to put money to work in long dated maturities on the on the on the bond side.

因此，我们把投资组合的股票部分主要视为资本增值，而债券部分则主要是为了应对收入的不稳定性。

So we really view the the stock side of the portfolio for capital appreciation, and the bond side really is there for income instability.

我们并不打算积极交易债券投资组合。

We're not trying to to aggressively trade the bond portfolio.

它主要是为了应对收入的不稳定性。

It's really there for income instability.

但我觉得你的观点很有道理。

But I think your point is valid.

我的意思是，有时自上而下的分析比其他时候更有价值。

I mean, there are gonna be times when the top down work is more more valid than than at other times.

我的意思是，再给你举个小例子，我父亲在八十年代初到中期所做的那些决策，确实为这个投资组合带来了数十年的强劲表现。

I mean, just to give you another small example, as we moved into the and and I'll say that the moves that my father made in the early and mid eighties, I mean, it really powered that portfolio for several decades.

我的意思是，当你看看他当年建立的这些仓位的成本基础时，真是非同寻常。

I mean, when you look at the the the cost basis of some of these positions he built back then, it was it was really something.

另外两家公司我至今记忆犹新，其中一些是自上而下的判断，另一些则没那么明显，但我记得八十年代后期，他走进我的办公室，把一本《财富》杂志放在我桌上，说：‘你看看这篇文章怎么样？’

And the other two companies I remember that had such an impact on me, some of this was top down, some of it was not as much top down, but I can remember in the in the latter part of the eighties, he came in my office and dropped this fortune magazine on my desk and said, see what you think of this article?

那是一篇封面文章。

And it was I think it was a cover story.

文章讲的是杰克·韦尔奇。

It was on Jack Welch.

他说，他认为一个人在组织中的重要性多么巨大，能够对一家公司的方向产生深远影响。

And he said, I think that he really emphasized how important one person can be in an organization, how it can make a huge difference in terms of the direction of a company.

我记得他当时说，我觉得这可能是个机会。

And I remember him saying that I think this I think this could be something.

当然，那只股票在八十年代初时是一家问题重重的公司。

And, of course, the stock, it was a very problematic company, particularly in the early eighties.

我认为韦尔奇是在八十年代初到中期上任的，我读了那篇文章，真是经典之作。

I think Welch came on in the early to mid eighties, and I read the article, and it was the classic.

这些人物简直让我想起军事将领。

It almost these guys almost remind me of military generals.

我的意思是，这是远见、战略和战术的结合。

I mean, it's it's it's vision, strategy, and tactics.

我的意思是，他们打算怎么做？

I mean, how are they gonna do it?

他们打算如何扭转局面？

How are they gonna turn around?

他们的愿景是什么？

What's their vision?

他们的战略是什么？

What's their strategy?

他们的战术是什么？

What's their tactics?

他们打算如何为股东提供非常良好的回报？

How are they gonna provide shareholders with with a really good good return?

我们俩只是想，哇。

And both of us just thought, wow.

我们需要仔细研究这家公司。

We we need to look at this company.

结果，这成了我们在接下来二十多年里最大的持仓之一，我认为该股票的回报率大约达到了4000%。

And that ended up being one of our one of our biggest holdings in over the ensuing twenty years or so, I think the stock returned something like 4000%.

我的意思是，这只是一个拥有单一愿景的人，这再次让我意识到，一个人能产生多么巨大的影响——在工业领域是这样，在消费领域，另一个让我终生难忘的案例则发生在九十年代初，那时我们的关注点似乎从上至下的角度略有转变。

I mean, it was just and that's one man with one vision, and that made me realize again how important one person can make the other one, that's on the industrial side, the other one that impacted me that I never have forgotten on the consumer side, and this was more in the early nineties, I think our emphasis shifted a little more from a top down standpoint.

这是在柏林墙倒塌之后。

This is after the Berlin Wall came down.

我们明显意识到，正进入一个一体化、相互关联的全球经济，那些拥有良好计划来开拓世界其他地区新兴市场的公司，我们认为在收益和盈利能力方面将拥有巨大优势。

It really became apparent that we were entering an integrated, interrelated global economy, and these companies that had a good plan to exploit these emerging markets in other regions of the world, we thought really, we're gonna have advantage from an earnings standpoint and profitability standpoint.

他给我看了关于罗本·马克的文章，他是高露洁的首席执行官，在高露洁取得了巨大成功，我想是从八十年代初一直到九十年代初。

And he showed me this article on Ruben Mark, who was the CEO of Colgate, had a great run at Colgate, I think from the early eighties to the into the February.

而且，这再次说明了一个人能产生如此巨大的影响。

And, again, this is an example of how one person can make such a difference.

可乐公司在九十年代初，你可能不信，它在亚洲的知名度比在美国还高。

Colgate Colgate back in the early nineties, believe it or not, it was better known in Asia than it was known in The US.

我的意思是，它在这些全球市场上有着极佳的渗透率，而许多公司有百分之五十、六十的收入来自海外。

I mean, it had a it had a great, great exposure to these global markets, and a lot of these companies had fifty, sixty.

甚至高达百分之七十的收入来自海外，因此这是我们在消费领域关注的另一个案例。

Even 70% of the revenue is coming from overseas, and so that's another one on the consumer side that we that we focused on.

但我认为这让我深刻认识到，拥有远见、战略和执行力的一个人有多么重要，无论是九十年代的杰克·韦尔奇或鲁本·马克，还是像霍尼韦尔的戴维·科迪，或是史蒂夫·乔布斯和蒂姆·库克。

But I think my it really taught me how important one person can be, you know, that has the vision, the strategy, the tactics, whether it's Jack Welch or Ruben Mark in the nineties or whether it's somebody like a David Cody at Honeywell in the February or or Steve Jobs and and Tim Cook.

你知道，很多头条CEO都备受关注，但也有一些默默无闻的英雄，他们可能在一些你没听说过的中小公司里，创造了非凡的业绩。

You know, there are a lot of headline CEOs that that get all the attention, but there are also some really unsung heroes out there that have just built maybe with smaller companies that you haven't heard of that have just built tremendous records.

但我从未忘记那个时期，尤其是韦尔奇和鲁本·马克，他们真正让我明白，当你审视这些组织和公司时，一个人真的能带来巨大的改变。

But I've never forgotten that period, and particularly the the Welch, Jack Welch, and and Ruben Mark that really really taught me that, boy, when you're looking at these organizations and at these companies, man, I mean, one person can make a tremendous difference.

我想回到你几分钟前谈到债券和平衡策略时说的一件事。

I wanna go back to something you were saying a couple of minutes ago when you were talking about bonds and having a balanced strategy.

我知道你经常在不同基金中配置，比如65%股票、35%债券，或者70%股票、30%债券，又或者是六四开之类的配置。

And I I know you've often with different funds, I guess, you you might have 65% stocks, 35% bonds or 70% stocks, 30% bonds, that's that's sort of or sixty, forty, that sort of thing.

当我查看你的长期回报时，让我感到惊讶的一点是，如果你完全不持有债券，表现可能会好得多。

And when I look at your long term returns, one of the things that's striking to me is how much better you would have done if you hadn't owned bonds at all.

而且是好得多得多。

And, I mean, massively better.

我经常在想，这可能部分是因为我在九十年代末刚入行时，那时有研究讨论股票的长期表现，比如杰里米·西格尔写的关于长期股票投资的内容？

And I've often wondered, I think this is partly because when I was kind of coming of age as an investor in the late nineties, and, you know, there were those studies on, was it Jeremy Siegel writing about stocks for the long term?

我那时就潜移默化地接受了这样一个观念：债券作为一种长期投资，回报相当差。

And I just sort of internalized this idea, that bonds, you know, was sort of a lousy long term bet.

实际上，从现在回头看，我当时对利率将大幅下降的判断可能是完全错误的。

Actually, was probably totally wrong in terms of, you know, writing that massive wave of of interest rates coming down.

但我的内心深处，一直对把太多资金投入债券持谨慎态度。

But there is a part of me that's always been kind of deeply wary of putting too much money in in bonds.

而如今，当你重新审视这个问题时，持有债券的理由是什么？与将投资组合的很大一部分完全配置在股票中相比，债券的优势在哪里？

And when you look at it now, like, what is the case for owning bonds versus having a very hefty portion of one's portfolio just in equities?

你明白的。

You're on it.

我懂了。

You got it.

就是这样。

That's it.

我一直都说，市政基金根本就不该持有债券。

Nobody really, I've I've said for for forever, municipal funds should not own bonds.

它们根本不该持有债券。

They should not own bonds.

数据实在太压倒性了。

It's just the overwhelming the data is so overwhelming.

听我说。

And listen.

这些市政基金是永久性的。

These municipal funds are in perpetuity.

它们是长期的。

They're long term.

它们是，你知道的，精算师喜欢20年方法，精算师钟爱二十年期方法，因为它与义务期限相匹配。

They're they're they're you know, the actuary they love the actuary loves the 20 we take a 20 approach, and the actuary loves the twenty year approach because it matches up to the obligate.

这大致相当于消防员或警察的职业平均寿命。

That's kind of the average life of a career of a fireman or policeman.

所以数据实在太压倒性了。

And so the data is so overwhelming.

我非常喜欢深入研究这个，我正开始真正深入挖掘这个课题。

I I like looking at I I'm really starting to sink my teeth into this.

大约十年前，我做了一项研究，我分析了我们金融历史中每一个二十年滚动周期。

About ten years ago, we did a I did a study, and I looked at every twenty year rolling period in our financial history.

没有一个二十年周期不包含牛市、熊市、投机泡沫、战争和经济衰退。

And there wasn't a twenty year period that did not include a bull market and a bear market and a speculative bubble and a war and a recession.

所以，你知道，十年周期可能不包含所有这些，但你永远找不到一个不包含所有这些变量的二十年周期。

So, you know, you got ten year periods that didn't include all that, but you could never find a twenty year period that didn't include all of these variables.

所以在我看来，这是衡量经理人能力的绝佳时期。

So to me, that was such a great period in terms of measuring the competency of your manager.

我的意思是，很多经理在牛市或熊市中都能表现得不错，如果配置得当，很多经理在熊市中也能表现得很好。

I mean, a lot of managers can look great in a bear a bull market, and a lot of managers can look great in a bear market if they're positioned correctly.

但在我看来，要全面评估经理的表现，最好的方法是查看他们二十年的滚动业绩。

But to me, the the way to see how you're to really look at how your manager's doing from a comprehensive standpoint is to look at their twenty year rolling performance.

我不但研究了坦帕二十年的滚动业绩，以及股票和整个基金相对于这些被动指数的表现。

And not only did I look at Tampa's twenty year rolling performance, how the stocks did, how the total fund did relative to these unmanaged indexes.

我还回溯到1926年，研究了所有这些资产类别在这些二十年滚动周期中的表现，这正印证了你所说的。

But I also looked at, going all the way back to 1926, how all of these asset classes did for these rolling twenty year periods, and you it's just what you're saying.

你只能挠头，心想：等等，这不对劲。

You just scratch your head, and you say, wait a second.

为什么这些设定收益养老金基金要持有债券？

Why are these defined benefit pension?

为什么它们要持有债券？

Why do they own bonds?

如果他们能采取长期视角，就不会出现资金不足的危机。

They would their performance, if they can take a long term approach, there would be no unfunded liability crisis.

你知道吗？

You know?

这总是逐州、逐市政地进行。

You you just and and it's it's always state by state, municipality by municipality.

他们有着严格的资产配置规则，全都包含相当大比例的固定收益资产，而他们这样做的原因是，这能在短期内让你看起来表现很好。

They've got the they've got these rigorous asset allocation rules, and they all include a a fairly hefty allocation to fixed income, and it's the reason they do it is because it can really make you look good over short term time periods.

当熊市来临——这几乎是不可避免的——债券组合通常能为你提供缓冲，让你的整体回报优于股票回报。

When you have the bear market, the inevitable bear market, typically, you know, the bond portfolio is gonna give you a cushion, and your total return is gonna be better than your than your stock return.

但在我看来，如果你能专注于长期目标——这些计划本就应该专注于长期——根本就没有理由持有债券。

But to me, if you can focus on the long term, which these plans should be focused on the long term, there there there is not a there just didn't a case to own bonds.

当然，像八十年代初那样的时期，你确实能锁定债券市场中非常有吸引力的利率。

Now granted, you're gonna have periods like in the early eighties when you could nail down some extremely attractive rates, interest rates in in the bond market.

当然，实际回报并不高，因为通胀高达两位数，但这些债券的名义回报率达到了17%。

Of course, your real return wasn't that great because inflation was double digits, but the nominal return on these bonds was 17%.

我的意思是，确实会有一些特定时期，这样做可能有道理。

I mean, so there are, you you know, there are gonna be certain periods where it might make sense.

但对我来说，我早就说过，如果我是市政基金的皇帝，我会说别买债券。

But to me, I've said for for quite a while, I mean, if I could wave a if I were the the the municipal fund emperor, I would say no bonds.

长期来看，二十年都全部投资股票。

Long term, twenty year approach in all stocks.

我曾经和先锋基金的创始人杰克·博格尔谈过这个话题，他说强烈建议投资单一的平衡型基金。

I once talked to Jack Bogle about this and, you know, the founder of Vanguard, and he said there was a tremendous argument for owning a single balanced fund.

于是我就在我的一个养老基金里这么做了。

And so I did this with a pension fund of mine.

当时我正在写我书里关于简化的那一章，这简直像是一次实验。

It was part I was writing the chapter on simplicity in my book, and it was sort of almost an experiment.

我想我曾经也为我妻子这么做过，就让她只持有一只先锋基金。

I I guess I did it for my wife at one point where I got her just one Vanguard fund.

我想那是那种目标日期基金，大约80%的资金投在股票上，20%投在债券上，债券部分还分成了外国债券和美国债券，股票部分也分成了外国股票和美国股票，但主要是美国资产。

I guess it was one of those target funds that has, like, 80% of the money in stocks and then 20% in bonds, and it's sort of split between foreign bonds and US bonds and foreign stocks and US stocks, but very heavily US.

我觉得这种方式有种简洁的美感。

And I thought there was something kind of elegant about it.

然后我也对我的一个养老基金做了同样的处理。

Then I did the same with a pension fund of mine.

所以我的投资中只有这一个，但说实话，有点让我困扰的是，这个基金里有20%是债券，但另一方面，我又想，你知道，博格尔经历过很多。

And so there's only like and it's only one investment of mine, but it's but, yeah, I'm sort of, it troubles me almost that I have, like, 20% of that fund in bonds, but then I sort of, in a way, I'm like, well, you know, Bogle lived through a lot.

他目睹过许多动荡，也明白拥有债券对生存至关重要。

He saw a lot of turmoil, and he understood why it was necessary to have bonds for survival.

你怎么看？

What do you think?

好吧，我这么说吧。

Well, I I will say this.

我的意思是，我本该在我之前的评论中提到这一点。

I mean, I should've I should've mentioned this in my comments on it.

你的年龄确实是一个影响因素。

It it your age does play a factor.

我的意思是，我们公司有一位女士工作了四十五年，她在我们的试用计划中持有相当可观的份额，而且她即将退休。

I mean, I I could like, one of the one of the ladies that worked for our firm for forty five years, she was had a nice stake in our probationary plan, and she was about to retire.

从各方面来看，在这种情况下，你永远无法预测短期内会发生什么。

And by all means, if it it in that situation, you never know what the day is gonna bring over short time periods.

我的意思是，我不希望看到她一半的资产因为某些事件——比如外部冲击——而蒸发。

I mean, I didn't wanna see half of her assets evaporate because we had a some event, you know, exogenous shock.

所以，我的意思是，根据你的年龄，这确实是一个需要考虑的因素，因为你最终需要根据自己的收入需求和财务状况，随着年龄增长，适当降低风险。

So, I mean, depending on your age, yes, I mean, that that's gotta be a factor in terms of whether you wanna I mean, at some point, you need to depending on what your income requirements are and what your financial situation is, depending on your age, you're certainly gonna wanna dial it back.

当然。

Absolutely.

是的。

Yeah.

我本该提到这一点的。

I should have mentioned that.

我主要关注的是这些永久性投资，是的。

What I'm mainly focused on are these in perpetuity Yeah.

市政养老金基金，那里其实无所谓。

Municipal pension funds where it it really it doesn't matter.

杰，我认为这引出了一个非常有趣且重要的议题，即在五十年或一个人的投资生涯中，通过避免灾难来实现生存。

Think that this gets, Jay, at a really interesting and important topic, which is the whole issue of survival by avoiding catastrophe over the course of fifty years or over the course of an individual's investment lifetime.

有一些方法可以帮助你实现生存。

And there are various things that you do that help you to survive.

其中一个明显的方法是持有一些债券。

So one obviously is having a bit of money in bonds.

我记得你曾经说过，你很少允许单只股票的投资占投资组合的比重超过5%。

One is I remember you saying at one point that you've rarely allowed a single investment in a stock to get beyond 5% of the portfolio.

你通常会适时减仓。

You tend to trim them back.

另一个是，你提到过，对于坦帕基金，你会持有大约50到60只股票；而对于规模较小的基金，比如一千万到五千万美元的基金，由于你还有其他客户，可能只需要持有30只股票。

Another, you've talked about owning, say, 50 to 60 stocks for the Tampa fund or with a smaller fund, like a 10 to $50,000,000 fund that you know, because you you have a lot of other clients, maybe that would be 30 stocks.

因此，股票投资组合中存在一定程度的分散化。

So there's some degree of diversification in the stock portfolio.

你能谈谈你是如何思考多元化这个问题的吗？确保自己能顺利到达终点。

Can you talk about how you think about this issue of diversification and just making sure that you're gonna get to the finish line?

因为我认为这对所有试图弄清楚‘我该如何生存并到达终点’的听众来说，有着非常重要的意义。

Because I think this has really important ramifications for all of our listeners who are trying to figure out, well, how do I actually survive and get to the finish line?

是的。

Yeah.

这真是个好问题，我很高兴你提到了，因为它让我有机会谈谈我认为重要的几点。

That's a great I'm really glad you asked that because it allows me to mention a couple things that I think are important.

第一，当我们建立仓位时，我最喜欢的做法是，如果幸运地做出了一个不错的投资，就把成本拿回来，也就是获利了结，这样股票的成本就归零了。

Number one, we my favorite thing to do when we establish a position is if I'm lucky enough to have made a good investment is to take the cost out of it, to to to take profits so you have no cost in the stock.

理论上，即使股票跌到零，你也不会亏钱。

So in theory, the stock could go to zero, and it was you didn't lose money.

我的意思是，当你通过盈利等方式完全收回成本后，剩下的都是纯利润，这种感觉本能上让人非常安心。

I mean, that's a that's just a instinctively comforting feeling when you've taken all the cost out through profits and everything else is is, you know, just gravy gravy, so to speak.

我们非常青睐这种状况，最近我们通过自上而下的研究，主要聚焦于第四次工业革命，就遇到了这种情况。

We we that that's really, really like that type of situation, and we've we've been faced with that recently through our, again, top down work mainly focused on the Fourth Industrial Revolution.

我们最终持有大量英伟达的股票。

We ended up with a very large position in Nvidia.

每次我们回头看，它都占投资组合的45%了。

And, I mean, every time we turned around, it was becoming 45% of the portfolio.

每一天都是如此，我们已经从这只股票中套现的利润超过了当前持仓成本，但它仍然是我们最大的持仓。

Again, every day is just and we took we've taken we've taken more profits in the stock than the current position, and it's still our largest.

我的意思是，它的表现真是太好了。

So I mean, that's how well it's done.

所以即使它跌到零，对我们来说也仍然是赚钱的。

So it could go to zero, and it would still have been a moneymaker for us.

所以我认为，真正要做的是把成本彻底移除。

So I think taking a look, really taking cost out of it.

而且，正如我之前提到的，这一点再次凸显出来。

And, again, you know, this is this brings up a point I mentioned earlier.

作为为市政养老基金管理退休资金的受托人，我认为我们必须采取谨慎的态度。

As a as a defined benefit is managing retirement money for a municipal fund, I just think we need to on the side of caution.

如果我们是对冲基金或某个私人实体，可以大胆押注，让仓位涨到10%、20%、30%，那也没问题。

And if we were a hedge fund or some private entity where we could really swing for the fences and we could let the position run to ten, twenty, 30%, that'd be fine.

但用纳税人的钱，我认为即使在已经赚取了大量利润后，只要仓位达到4%或5%，也该保持警惕。

But with with taxpayer money, I just think it's prudent to kinda keep your eye on it if a position becomes, you know, four or 5% even after taking a lot of profits.

这种情况确实可能发生。

That that can certainly happen.

我认为这是一种很好的纪律。

I I think that's a good discipline to have.

我的意思是，是的，你可能会错过一些上行空间，而我们确实错过了。

I mean, yeah, you might miss some upside, which we have.

对。

Yeah.

我们因为锁定这些利润而错失了一些上行空间，但我认为这样做能让你睡得更安稳——知道你已经减仓、已经榨干了所有收益，即使股价跌到零，这笔投资也依然不是亏损。

We miss some upside by by taking these profits, but I just think it allows you to sleep a little better, little better at night knowing that you've scaled back, you've taken all the cost out, this idea that if the stock goes to zero, it's was still not a loser, not a losing investment.

这多少让人感到安心。

That's all somewhat comforting.

你知道，通常像你说的，我们在坦帕会持有40到50只股票。

You know, typically, like you say, we'll own 40 to 50 names in in Tampa.

另外，我在多年来分析坦帕情况时认为很重要的一点是，一个人的影响力可以非常巨大，无论是杰克·韦尔奇、鲁本·马克、史蒂夫·乔布斯、大卫·卡迪，还是那些默默无闻却经营着卓越公司的英雄们。

And something else that I think is important when I when I analyze the Tampa situation over the years, just as one person can make a big difference in terms of whether it's Jack Welch or Reuben Mark or Steve Jobs or David Cuddy or some of these unsung heroes that run some incredible companies.

那么，单凭一个股票选择能带来多大的差异呢？

Boy, in keeping with that, how much of a difference one stock selection can make?

为了给你一个小例子，这并不完全准确，但当时这个决定非常痛苦，因为这只股票我们长期持有。

And just to give you a small example, this is not exact, but we and this was very painful because it had been a long term holding.

但我记得大约在2011年的时候，我决定退出我们的可口可乐持仓。

But I decided back in I think it's around 2011 to get out of our Coca Cola position.

它的成本基础大约是1.5左右。

It was it represented about I think the cost basis was something like one and a half.

所以这是一个艰难的决定。

And and so it's a tough it's a tough decision.

你永远不希望变得像我父亲常说的那样。

You never wanna become it's another lesson from my father.

你永远不希望对这些公司产生情感依赖，即使它们过去表现再好，你也只想确保它们未来的方向。

You never wanna become emotionally attached to these companies if you feel like there's a no matter how good it's been, you just wanna make sure where it's going.

由于我们在股票投资方面的限额，如果我们想建立新仓位，就必须卖出一些东西。

And it for us to us to us because of our limits on how much we can invest on the stock side, if we wanna establish a new position, we have to sell something.

资金不会凭空出现。

The the money just doesn't magically appear.

如果我们想建立新仓位，就必须卖出一些东西。

We've got to if we wanna establish a new position, we've gotta sell something.

我认为这是一个很好的例子，说明一个决定如何对投资组合产生巨大影响。

And so I think this is a good example of how just one decision can make a huge difference in a portfolio.

我不会每次都做对，也犯过很多错误。

And I'm not gonna get them all right, and I've gotten plenty of them wrong.

但你想想2011年被清仓的可口可乐，就在那时我决定买入苹果。

But you think about the Coca Cola that was liquidated in 2011, and the that's when we decide I decided to establish a position at Apple.

基本上，我的想法是从宏观主题角度出发，认为可口可乐是一家生活在二十一世纪全食世界里的二十世纪公司，我觉得它的全球消费影响力可能正在下降。

And, basically, the idea was some from a top down thematic standpoint that the Coca Cola was what I viewed as a kind of a twentieth century company operating in a twenty first century Whole Foods world type situation, and I felt like their global consumer footprint might be decreasing.

而相比之下，就我们现在而言，我认为苹果的全球消费者覆盖人数大约有20亿。

Whereas Apple, as we speak now, I think their global consumer footprint is something like 2,000,000,000 people.

所以某种程度上，你是在从一家消费公司转向另一家。

So in a way, you're switching from one consumer company to another.

我的意思是，行业不同，公司也不同。

I mean, industries, different companies.

好的。

Okay.

我们当时每只股票都建了2500万美元的仓位。

The the just say that back then we were building $25,000,000 positions each in each each stock.

好的。

Okay.

可口可乐在接下来的十三年里，直到2024年6月30日，我查了一些数据，年化复合增长率是8%，而苹果的年化复合增长率是25%。

The Coke, over the ensuing thirteen years through 2024 through through June 30, I was looking at some numbers, the compounded annualized at 8%, and Apple compounded annualized at 25%.

所以如果我们保留了可口可乐，它现在价值7500万美元，但苹果却涨到了5.5亿美元。

So if we had kept the Coke, it would have been worth 75,000,000, but the Apple became worth 550,000,000.

所以仅仅这一个投资决策，这个自上而下的想法，哇，我真的对苹果非常感兴趣，那么，我们该怎么为这笔购买筹资呢？

So just that one investment decision, that just that one top down idea, well, wow, we really I really like I'm intrigued with Apple and, okay, well, how are we gonna fund the purchase?

好吧，让我们看看一些消费类公司，也许它们的前景不如从前那么光明了。

Well, let's look at some of these consumer companies that maybe maybe the outlook is not as as as bright as it once was.

因此，我认为对于个人投资者来说，像这样的一个决策——最近另一个例子就是四五年前卖出强生，买入礼来。

And so that that's a I think a for individual investors, I mean, just one decision like that can I mean, another one recently was the decision to sell J and J four or five years ago and buy Eli Lilly?

这同样基于一些自上而下的分析，以及礼来在如今众多重磅药物上的专注。

Again, it was based on some top down work and the emphasis that Lilly has on, well, what now is, of course, a lot of blockbuster.

真正关键的是他们的研发管线。

It was it was really the pipeline.

他们确实拥有强大的研发管线，而强生则深陷诸多诉讼问题之中。

They really had the pipeline, and J and J was struggling under a lot of litigation issues and and so on and so on.

所以，你再看看这些数字，正是这一次切换，带来了数亿美元的差异。

So And again, you look at those numbers and just the hundreds of millions of dollars it made the difference, that one switch.

即使在数十亿美元的投资组合中，一只股票、一个仓位，也能产生巨大影响。

So even in a multi billion dollar portfolio, one stock, one position.

再者，听好了。

And again, listen.

我犯过很多次错误，也多次判断失误，就是你卖的股票涨了，而你买的股票却跌了。

I've gotten plenty of them wrong, and I've been wrong twice plenty of times, which is the stock you sell moves up and the stock you buy moves down.

我做过很多次这样的事，但如果你能对其中一些做出正确决策，仅仅一个投资决定就可能为个人带来巨大影响。

I've done that numerous times, but if you can get some of them right, just just that one investment decision can really make a big difference for individuals.

我们先短暂休息一下，听听今天赞助商的广告。

Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors.

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好的。

Alright.

回到节目。

Back to the show.

你提到过，杰，一个我想要深入探讨的重要宏观主题。

You mentioned, Jay, a very important top down theme that I'd like to explore a little bit.

你提到过‘第四次工业革命’这个说法，你在给股东的信中曾将其描述为一种触及各个领域的宏观主题，无论是工业、医疗还是金融行业。

You you used the phrase the Fourth Industrial Revolution, and you've described this in some of your letters to shareholders as as a kind of mega theme that touches everything, whether it's industrial sector, health care sector, financial sector.

你能谈谈你所说的‘第四次工业革命’具体指什么，以及你如何布局以抓住这一趋势吗？

Can you talk about what you mean by the Fourth Industrial Revolution and how you're actually positioning yourself to play this?

因为当我查看你的投资组合，看到像英伟达、泰利登或苹果、微软这样的公司时，我很好奇。

Because when I when I look at your portfolio and I see these things like Nvidia or Teledyne or or Apple, I'm I'm curious or Microsoft.

我想知道，第一，你如何看待这个巨大的宏观主题；第二，投资者如何长期布局，以期从中受益。

I'm curious, a, what you see as this huge mega theme, and, b, how one can position oneself to benefit from it over many years, hopefully.

是的。

Yeah.

我认为它确实影响了多种行业，而过去一两年来，人工智能无疑是这场第四次工业革命的核心支柱。

I think it does touch a variety of of of industries, and, of course, it's anchored as we've seen the last year or two by AI, I think, is kind of the anchor of this Fourth Industrial Revolution.

我所说的，是在计算机革命——也就是第三次工业革命——之后的延续，那次革命以计算机为核心，而这一次则是数字革命的进一步深化，带来了令人难以置信的技术创新，可能对各个行业和领域产生深远影响。

And, basically, what I'm talking about is on the heels of the computer revolution, the Third Industrial Revolution, which was anchored by computers, and this is kind of the follow on to that in terms of the digital more of the the digital revolution that's gonna from a techno that just incredible technological innovation in terms of what it might mean to different industries and sectors.

正如你所说，我认为仅人工智能这一主题就已经涵盖了方方面面。

And as as you say, I think it touches just just the just the artificial intelligence theme alone.

我的意思是，当你听到这些CEO们谈论时，我几周前听了美敦力CEO的讲话，他谈到了这对他们从医疗设备、药物研发、基因编辑、基因组学等方面意味着什么，这确实影响了整个医疗行业。

I mean, when you hear these CEOs I heard the CEO of Medtronic a couple of weeks ago talking about what it might mean for them from a from a in terms of medical device standpoint, drug discovery, gene editing, genomics, all it just it touches health care.

它也影响了工业领域和材料方面。

It touches the industrial side, the the the material side.

我认为，它对各种公司和行业可能产生的影响是广泛而深远的。

It it just has a wide ranging, I think, implications in terms of what it might mean for a variety of different companies and industries.

但除了人工智能之外，还有很多其他令人着迷的创新正在发生。

But in in addition to AI, you know, there there are other really fascinating innovations going on also.

比如工业领域的自动化。

Industrial automation, for instance, in the in the industrial area.

那里正在发生什么？

What's going on there?

还有各种不同的技术领域，比如纳米技术，那里正在发生什么？

You got different areas of of technology that you know, nanotechnology, for instance, what's going on there?

3D打印。

Three d printing.

现在有大量高科技创新，让我想起上世纪九十年代中期到晚期，那时曾有一个充满创新、敢于冒险、资本形成与货币价格稳定相得益彰的美好时期。

There there are just a lot of high-tech innovations that reminds me a little bit of the, mid to late nineties where you had just a wonderful period, innovation, risk taking, capital formation, congruent with price stability on the monetary side.

格林斯潘真的让经济自由发展。

Greenspan really let the economy run.

我至今记得清清楚楚，他在汉弗莱-霍金斯听证会上直接挑战了菲利普斯曲线，指出我们可以在保持价格稳定的同时，让经济增速超过趋势水平——这真是让我倍感振奋。

I can remember like it was yesterday, his Humphrey Hawkins testimony where he basically took a shot at the Phillips curve and indicated that we can grow the economy above trend rates with price stability, which was really music to my ears.

他确实放任经济自由运行，而当时这些创新主要与互联网相关，如今则与人工智能相关。

He let it you know, he did let it run, and you had these of course, back then, it was Internet related, whereas now it's AI related.

你知道，网景公司IPO是在1995年，我们都清楚后来由此引发了泡沫，但那时确实涌现了大量创新、资本形成和冒险精神。

You know, the Netscape IPO was 1995, and we all know where eventually where that led in terms of the the bubble situation, but you did have a lot of innovation in capital formation and risk taking.

当时有四大巨头，分别是戴尔、微软、英特尔和思科。

And, of course, you had the four horsemen back then, which was Dell and Microsoft and Intel and Cisco.

如果你没持有这些股票，那就别想了。

And if you didn't own those stocks, you could forget it.

如今的情况与当年的‘五巨头’或‘六巨头’非常相似。

It's very similar today to the magnificent five or six.

我们并没有持有这些股票的多数。

We did not own the majority of those stocks.

所以，当时我们经历了一段跑输市场的时期，抱歉，是表现不佳。

So we had a period of outperformance, excuse me, of underperformance back then.

我们只是从估值角度来看，觉得其中一些股票看起来有点贵，而我们错了。

We just thought from a valuation standpoint, they didn't some of them looked a little and and and we were wrong.

我的意思是，我们错过了一些股票，那是一个充满创新的时期，就像我说的，和今天不同，但依然有大量的互联网驱动的技术创新。

I mean, we missed we missed it with with some of them, And that that was a period where you had a lot of, like I say, different today, but still a lot of innovation, technological innovation that was flowing from from the Internet.

然后，当然，你经历了科技泡沫。

Then, of course, you had the you had the tech bubble.

我有点跑题了，但如果你没持有那四只股票，你就根本跟不上市场。

I'm I'm off track here a little bit, but if you didn't own those four stocks, there was no way you kept up with the market.

但长期投资策略的好处是，当一切崩盘时，如果你没持有那些股票，你依然能跟上市场。

But benefit of the long term approach is if you didn't own those stocks when it when it when everything burst, then you did keep up with the market.

所以，再次强调，当你以二十年的滚动周期来看时，我认为这是衡量表现的绝佳方式。

So, again, when you look at it in in in long twenty year rolling increments, I think that's a great way to to measure.

但从第四次工业革命的角度来看，我们真正关注的是那些具备远见、战略和战术来利用这些新技术的公司，这些技术有望提升这些公司的盈利能力。

But in terms of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, we're really after, from a top down standpoint, after the the the companies, again, that had the vision, strategy, and tactics to to exploit it, to exploit these new technologies that hopefully is gonna, you know, is gonna help these companies from a profitability standpoint.

所以当我查看你的投资组合时，我看到像英伟达、Tetra Tech（从事技术咨询和可持续解决方案）、Palo Alto Networks（从事网络安全解决方案）、Vertex Pharmaceuticals（从事生物技术）、Netflix、苹果和微软、Teledyne Technology这样的公司。

So when I'm looking at your portfolio, I can see names like Nvidia and Tetra Tech, which I think does technology consulting and sustainable solutions, and Palo Alto Networks, which does cybersecurity solutions, and things like Vertex Pharmaceuticals, does biotech and Netflix and Apple and Microsoft Teledyne technology.

因此，其中有很多科技公司，显然非常注重高增长速率的企业。

So there's there's a lot of tech there and obviously a big focus on companies with high growth rates.

但你也传统上寻找估值低于平均水平的公司。

But then also you've traditionally looked for companies with lower valuations than average.

我只是想知道，当你试图为未来二十年的持久、可持续成功做准备时，你是如何应对像英伟达这样股价变得非常昂贵的问题的？

I'm just wondering how you grapple with this problem as you try to set yourself up for sort of durable, sustainable success over twenty years, how you deal with the problem of things like Nvidia becoming very pricey.

是的。

Yeah.

我告诉你，几乎每天我都会想，如果我父亲处在这样的环境中，他会怎么应对，因为他更偏向于格雷厄姆和多德的价值投资理念。

And I I tell you, hardly a day doesn't go by when I wonder how my dad would have navigated this environment because he was much more of the Graham and Dodd, you know, the value line.

好吧。

Alright.

我们来看看这个。

Let's go look at this.

看看这个每股销售额。

Look at this sales per share.

看看这个净资产收益率。

Look at this return on equity.

看看这个自由现金流收益率。

Look at this free cash flow yield.

看看这个，你知道的，资产负债表。

Look at this, you know, balance sheet.

看看这个股息。

Look at this dividend.

你明白的，这更偏向价值投资，这在八九十年代非常有效。

You know, very very much more on the value side, which was great in the eighties and and nineties.

他会适应的。

He would have adapted.

我知道他会的。

I know he would have.

他肯定会想出办法，但现在的情况已经完全不同了。

He would have come up with something, but it's such a it's such a different game now.

差别太大了。

It's so different.

传统的做法是，你可以从估值角度构建一个完美的投资组合，但可能连续十年、十五年都被彻底碾压，你知道吗？

The the traditional I mean, you can put together this beautiful portfolio from a valuation standpoint and just get absolutely steamrolled for ten years, for fifteen years, for you know?

所以你真的必须适应，我认为查理·芒格提出的这个理念非常出色——他宁愿以合理的价格买入伟大的公司，也不愿以极佳的价格买入普通的公司，类似这样的话。

So you really do have to adapt, and I I think that that this concept that I think Charlie Munger, I think he's the one that's it's such a great statement that he would rather own great companies at good prices than average companies at great prices or something like that.

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

我认为这种适应是

And the I think the adaptation that

是的。

Yeah.

我觉得这是

I think it's

一家伟大的公司，好的企业以合理的价格买入，而不是平庸的企业以极低的价格买入。

a great great company, great businesses at fair prices rather than fair businesses at great prices.

所以，是的。

So Yeah.

所以他逐渐让巴菲特从‘雪茄烟头’投资转向了非常高品质的公司。

So he so he kinda shifted Buffett away from cigar butts towards very high quality companies.

但这里确实存在一个矛盾。

But there's a there's a real conflict here.

对吧？

Right?

比如，你如何解释持有英伟达，却又不敢不持有它？

Like, how how how you justify staying in Nvidia, but how you dare not to own it.

要衡量市场愿意为一家每年都稳定实现两位数回报和利润的公司支付多少价格，真的很难。

It's really tough to to gauge, okay, what is the market willing to pay if you have this company that is generating just consistently double digit returns and profits year after year.

那30倍的市盈率算高吗？

Well, is a 30 multiple?

我的意思是，你可以看看PEG比率，看看市盈率与增长率的比率，来以此评估。

I mean, then you look at the peg ratio, you look at the PE ratio to growth rate to to kinda gauge it that way.

当你这样看的时候，像英伟达这样的公司，相对于其增长率来看，市盈率显然并不贵。

And when you do that, something like an Nvidia, of course, does not look very expensive when you look at the PE relative to the to the growth rate.

但像好市多这样的公司，你就会挠头想，天啊。

But something like a Costco, for instance, you you just scratch your head and you think, gosh.

我的意思是，好吧。

I mean, okay.

什么时候这个估值倍数就过头了？我知道这是一家极其出色的公司，回报和盈利能力都很强，但我觉得这才是关键问题，我经常想，我父亲在这样的环境下会怎么处理，他该如何判断什么时候从长期价值投资变成了从估值角度看完全不合理的情况。

When is the multiple just I know there could it's a it's a fantastic company with great returns and profitability, and but but I think that's the big and I often wonder how my dad would handle this environment in terms of trying to sort out when it kind of shifts from a long term value to just a situation that just doesn't make sense anymore from a from a valuation standpoint.

我的意思是，像英伟达和许多这些持仓，它们表现得太好了，所以才成了我们最大的持仓之一，就是因为它们表现实在太好了。

I mean, with the Nvidia and with a lot of these holdings, they've done so well, which is why they're some of our largest just that they've just done so well.

从盈利能力的角度来看，我们已经从中提取了大量收益。

And we have taken an awful lot out of them from a profitability standpoint.

我认为我们还处于人工智能发展的早期阶段，就像1995年网景公司上市时那样。

I do think we're early in this AI situation just as in 1995 when Netscape had their IPO.

那确实是早期。

That was early.

我的意思是，你经历了多年资本投入和利润积累，这些公司取得了不错的收益，但随后整个市场失控，最终爆发了科技泡沫。

I mean, you had years and years of capital investment and profits, made good good earnings for a variety of these companies before the the whole thing careened out of out of control and the and and you and you had the tech bubble.

但我经常在思考这个问题。

But it's something I think about a lot.

这毫无疑问。

That's for sure.

我总是很喜欢特普尔顿常引用的那句话。

I I always love that quote that Templeton used to quote.

我不确定那是不是他自己的话，还是别人说的。

I don't know if it was his words or someone else.

他过去常说，智者在开始时做的事，愚者会在最后才做。

He used to say what what the wise man does in the beginning, the fool does in the end.

所以我认为，其中一部分原因是，你知道，你不想在这些资产已经上涨之后才最后冲进去，因为你被一种糟糕的错失恐惧感所驱动。

And so I think some of it is, you know, you just don't wanna be the last person to pile into these things after they've gone up because you're motivated by a terrible fear of missing out.

嗯，举个例子，我觉得这令人震惊。

Well, and here, just to give you an example, I think this is stunning.

在过去的几周里，有些日子我们看到，标普指数按市值加权后下跌超过1%，但有490只股票是上涨的。

Some of these days we've had in the last few weeks, you know, we had a day where the S and P, the market cap weighted S and P was off over 1%, and I think 490 stocks were up.

但由于市值加权的特性，那些少数下跌的股票拖垮了整个市场，是的。

But because of the market cap nature, you know, the handful that were down, it tanked the whole yeah.

那天，等权重的标普指数上涨超过1%，而市值加权的标普指数却下跌超过1%。

That was a day where the equal weight S and P was up over a percent, and the market cap S and P was off over a percent.

我认为，我们即将开始看到的不会是如此剧烈的转变，但我确实认为，在 headlines 层面，市场可能看起来没什么大动静，甚至可能显得有些盘整。

And I think that we're gonna start seeing not exactly that dramatic of a shift, but I do think you're gonna start seeing at the headline level, it might not look like the market's doing much, and it might look like it's churning a little bit.

甚至市值加权指数可能正在下跌。

It might even be the the market cap weighted index might be moving down.

但在表象之下，我认为真正有趣的是正在发生的事情。

But, what's going on under underneath the hood, I think, is really interesting.

我认为这种情况可能会持续下去，这引出了另一个观点。

I think this could continue, and it brings up another point.

多年来，我们投资组合中非常重要的一部分是所谓的未来蓝筹股，这些公司可能——我们更看重收入而非市值——年收入在十亿到五十亿美元之间。

A very important part of our portfolios over the years have been what we call future blue chips, and these are companies that might be, you know, from a we like to look at revenues more than market cap, but they might be, say, 1,000,000,000 to 5,000,000,000 in revenues.

但我们认为，凭借它们的领导力、远见、战略、战术和全球业务计划，它们未来将成为数十亿美元规模的公司。

But we think because of their leadership and vision and strategy and tactics and global business plan that they're gonna be multibillion dollar companies looking out.

这些公司常常代表着引人注目的长期价值。

Oftentimes, these companies do represent intriguing long term value.

很高兴你提到泰特科技，因为这正是我所说的那种公司，它在咨询和工程领域一直非常低调。

I'm glad you mentioned Tetra Tech because that would be one of these companies that I think it's been a very quiet situation, consulting and engineering.

这正是我所说的默默无闻的首席执行官。

This would be what I would call an unsung CEO.

那些获得大量关注的明星人物固然耀眼，但有些公司是由极其出色的管理者在运营。

You got these rock stars that get all this publicity, but there's some companies out there that are run by they're just superbly run.

如果你看看这些管理层在过去二三十年里创造的回报，虽然他们不是家喻户晓的名字，但他们恰恰处于基础设施这一主题的核心，这也是我们在建筑和工程领域的一个自上而下的重要主题。

And if you look at the returns that that management has been able to generate over the last ten to twenty years, it's not a high profile name, but they're just right in the heart of the infrastructure theme, which is another top down theme of ours from a con construction and engineering standpoint.

另一个例子是Badger Meter，主要从事流量控制和其他类似产品。

Another one, Badger Meter, which is flow control and some other products like that.

这是一个非常强大的细分市场。

That just a very powerful niche.

年销售额不到十亿美元。

A small under a billion dollars in sales.

但同样地，过去二三十年里，他们的管理团队为股东创造的回报极其出色。

But, again, the management team over the last ten and twenty years, the returns they produce for shareholders have just been tremendous.

因此，这些规模较小的公司一直是我们投资组合中非常重要的一部分。

So that's always been a very important part of our portfolio, these companies that are smaller.

由于技术细分、管理团队和商业计划等种种原因，我们认为它们未来将成为数十亿美元规模的公司。

And for one reason or another, the technological niche and the management and the business plan, we think they're gonna be multibillion dollar companies looking out.

这些公司常常会被收购，因为许多大型企业也在关注和我们一样的东西。

Oftentimes, these companies become acquired because a lot of the a lot of larger companies are looking at the same thing we're looking at.

我这些年能想到好几家。

I can think of several over the years.

Loctite被德国公司汉高收购，Lubrizol则被沃伦·巴菲特的伯克希尔收购。

Loctite was acquired by Henkel, the German company, and Lubrizol was acquired by Warren Buffett's Berkshire.

我们曾持有CPC国际这家食品公司，后来被联合利华收购。

We had CPC International, the food company acquired by Unilever.

华纳-兰伯特被我印象中是辉瑞收购了。

Warner Lambert was acquired by, I think, Pfizer.

我的意思是，市场上有一些非常优秀的企业，为股东创造了卓越价值，却不像那些大公司那样获得广泛关注。

I mean, you've got there's some great companies out there that are doing a wonderful job for their shareholders that that don't get the publicity that the the big ones do.

但过去五十年来一直如此。

But that's always been over the last fifty years.

这些我们称之为未来蓝筹的小公司，一直是我们投资组合中非常重要的一部分。

That's been a very important part of our portfolio for these these smaller, what we call future blue chips.

当你现在看整体背景时，我知道以你自上而下的关注视角，你总是会对财政状况、货币政策、监管环境等各方面形成自己的判断。

When you look at the backdrop at the moment, I know with your your top down focus, you're you're always taking a view on the fiscal situation, the monetary situation, the regulatory backdrop, all of those things.