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你正在收听TIP。
You're listening to TIP.
大家好。
Hi, folks.
很高兴能再次和你们一起收听《更富有、更睿智、更快乐》播客。
It's great to be back with you here on the richer, wiser, happier podcast.
正如你我都知道的,我们正经历着世界范围内剧烈的变化和不确定性。
As you and I both know, we've been going through a period of extreme change and uncertainty in the world.
无论你看向哪里,似乎政治、经济、社会和技术各方面都在经历动荡。
Wherever you look, it seems like everything's getting shaken up politically, economically, socially, technologically.
看看美国这里动荡、两极分化且充满张力的政治局势吧。
Just look at the tumultuous, polarized, and highly charged political situation here in The United States.
或者看看中东和乌克兰的地缘政治危机。
Or look at the geopolitical crises in The Middle East and Ukraine.
与此同时,我们正经历着日益极端的天气事件带来的破坏性影响,而技术进步正以令人屏息的速度改变着我们的生活和工作方式。
At the same time, we're experiencing the destabilizing forces of increasingly extreme weather events, and technological advances are transforming the way we live and work at a speed that almost takes your breath away.
鉴于人工智能的兴起,我们几乎可以肯定,当前所经历的变革速度只会进一步加快。
Given the rise of artificial intelligence, it seems certain that the pace of change that we're already experiencing is only going to accelerate.
面对这场变革与不确定性的漩涡,你我该如何保持情绪的稳定和思维的清晰,以便能够明智地思考和行动?
Faced with this maelstrom of change and uncertainty, how can you and I maintain our emotional equilibrium and our mental clarity so that it's possible to think and act wisely?
我们如何才能保持冷静与平衡,不仅能在市场和生活中做出明智的决策,还能为依赖我们的人提供一份稳定、安心与理性?
How can we be calm and balanced so that we can not only make smart decisions in markets and in life, but can also provide a measure of stability and reassurance and sanity to the people who depend on us.
在我的著作《更富有、更睿智、更快乐》第三章中,我深入探讨了这一根本性问题:一切都在变化,未来不可预知,但我们仍需做出决策,以期为未来做好准备。
In chapter three of my book, Richer, Wiser, Happier, I focus in some depth on this fundamental problem that everything changes and that the future is unknowable, and yet we still need to make decisions that will hopefully position us well for the future.
正如你可能记得的,该章的主角是霍华德·马克斯,他掌管着橡树资本超过两千亿美元的资产。
As you may recall, the main character in that chapter is Howard Marks, who oversees more than $200,000,000,000 at Oaktree Capital.
霍华德告诉我,世界正在不断、不可预测地以惊人的速度变化。
Howard told me, it's clear that the world is changing all the time, unpredictably, at incredible speed.
他说,一切都已不再如故。
Nothing is the same anymore, he said.
对于那些生活理念建立在稳定不变基础上的人来说,这一定非常令人不安。
And for people whose approach to life is based on sameness, that must be very upsetting.
正如霍华德向我解释的那样,至关重要的是要认识到变化是不可避免的,我们无法期望控制自己的环境。
As Howard explained to me, it's crucially important to recognize that change is inevitable and that we can't expect to control our environment.
相反,他说,我们必须适应环境。
Instead, he says, we have to accommodate to our environment.
我们必须预期并顺应变化。
We have to expect and go with change.
如何应对变化、不稳定和混乱这一主题,是本期播客的核心内容。
This subject of how to handle change and instability and disorder is the central theme of today's episode of the podcast.
我们的嘉宾是布拉德·斯图尔伯格,他著有 excellent 的著作《变化的高手》。
Our guest is Brad Stulberg, the author of an excellent book titled Master of Change.
他的书的副标题是:当一切都在变化,包括你自己时,如何脱颖而出。
The subtitle of his book is How to Excel When Everything is Changing, Including You.
在此之前,布拉德还写过一本畅销书《扎根的实践》,探讨了在任何情况下保持身心健康的重要性,以实现健康且可持续的成功。
Before that, Brad wrote a bestseller titled The Practice of Groundedness, which explores the importance of maintaining our mental and physical well-being under any circumstances so we can achieve healthy and sustainable success.
布拉德还是一位著名的教练,指导过包括首席执行官、企业家和世界级运动员在内的顶尖人物。
Brad is also a renowned coach to elite performers, including CEOs, entrepreneurs, and world class athletes.
因此,他在如何以最高水平成功运作方面积累了大量经过实战检验的实用智慧。
So he has a lot of practical battle tested wisdom about how to operate successfully at the very highest levels.
正如你将在本次对话中听到的,布拉德对我们需要具备的那种坚韧、适应各种环境的心态有着极其深刻的思考。
As you'll hear in this conversation, Brad is extremely thoughtful about the kind of resilient all weather mindset we need in order to adapt and thrive under any conditions.
他详细探讨了最有效的习惯和日常安排,这些能帮助我们在任何情况下都茁壮成长;他还有力地论证了,即使在最艰难的处境中,也要保持一种现实而充满希望的态度——伟大的心理学家和哲学家维克多·弗兰克尔称之为‘悲剧性乐观’。
He talks in detail about the most effective habits and routines that can help us to thrive no matter what, and he makes a compelling case for maintaining a realistic yet hopeful attitude even in the most challenging circumstances, a mindset that the great psychologist and philosopher Viktor Frankl described as tragic optimism.
我希望你们能像我一样,从我们的对话中获得帮助、安定和力量。
I hope you find our conversation as helpful and grounding and empowering as I did.
非常感谢你们的参与。
Thanks so much for joining us.
你正在收听《更富有、更睿智、更快乐》播客,主持人威廉·格林将采访世界顶尖投资者,探索如何在市场和人生中取得胜利。
You're listening to the richer, wiser, happier podcast, where your host, William Green, interviews the world's greatest investors and explores how to win in markets and life.
大家好。
Hi, folks.
今天能与我们的嘉宾布拉德·施尔伯格在一起,我感到无比高兴。
I'm absolutely delighted to be here today with our guest, Brad Stulberg.
布拉德是应对变化、混乱与颠覆时如何蓬勃发展的顶尖专家。
Brad is a leading expert on how to thrive amid change and disorder and disruption.
他撰写了两本畅销书。
He's the author of two bestselling books.
第一本是《扎根之道》,我就带在这里,副标题是:一条滋养而非压垮你灵魂的变革性成功之路。
First, The Practice of Groundedness, which I have here, which the subtitle is A Transformative Path to Success that Feeds, Not Crushes Your Soul.
第二本是更近期的一本书,同样非常出色,名为《变化大师》。
And second, a more recent book, which is also excellent, which is called Master of Change.
副标题是:当一切都在变化,包括你自己时,如何出类拔萃。
And the subtitle is How to Excel When Everything is Changing, Including You.
因此,在很多方面,这是一本关于如何在充满颠覆的世界中脱颖而出的实用指南,而我们正处处可见这种颠覆。
So in many ways, this is a practical guide on how to excel in a world of disruption, and we're seeing this on every side.
此外,布拉德还是一名教练。
So also Brad is a coach.
她为高绩效人士提供指导,包括顶尖高管、企业家、医生、运动员等。
She works with high performers, including top executives, entrepreneurs, physicians, athletes, and the like.
很高兴你来到这里,布拉德。
And it's lovely to have you here, Brad.
今天见到你我真的很开心。
I'm really delighted to see you today.
能来到这里是我的荣幸,威廉。
It's an honor to be here, William.
我们将深入探讨如何在变化、混乱和不确定性中茁壮成长。
We're gonna talk a lot about how to thrive amid change and disorder and uncertainty.
我想先问问你过去十年中自己的变化经历。
And I wanted to start by asking you about your own experience of change in the last decade.
我知道你经历过许多事情,这些经历让你认识到,正如你所写的,变化与混乱并非例外,而是常态。
Basically, I know that you've had a number of experiences that led you to see that change in disorder, as you write, not the exceptions, they're the rules.
在这本书出版前的几年里,发生了什么让你逐渐领悟到,我们所有人都必须学会适应变化,因为这并非系统的故障。
What happened in the last few years before this book came out that in a way prepared you for this insight that really all of us are gonna have to learn to adapt to change because it's not a glitch in the system.
它将长期存在。
It's here to stay.
是的
Yeah.
我认为,多种因素共同作用,促使我开始思考变化这一普遍问题,或者说至少促使我深入探索这个主题。
So a multitude of factors, I think, converged that led me to this question of change in general or at least this topic of change to explore.
在我的个人生活中,我离开了那份非常稳定的工作——当时我是全球最大的医疗系统之一的绩效教练,转而创立了自己的私人教练业务,并投入更多时间写作。
In my personal life, I left a very secure job where I was on staff as a performance coach at one of the largest health care systems in the world to develop my own private practice in coaching and spend more time writing.
这恰好与我从旧金山湾区搬到北卡罗来纳州阿什维尔的迁居同步,从一个人口密集的大都市搬到了一个规模小得多的山地小镇。
That coincided with a move across the country from the San Francisco Bay Area to Asheville, North Carolina, so from a major population center to a much smaller mountain town.
我第一次成为父亲,随后又第二次成为父亲。
I became a father for the first time and then again for the second time.
我的一本书成为国际畅销书,但同时,我也有一些非常期待的写作项目彻底失败了。
I had a book become an international bestseller, and I also had some writing projects that I was very hopeful for completely fail.
随后,我遭遇了一次伤病,使我不得不退出耐力运动,特别是铁人三项中的跑步,而跑步曾是我身份认同和自我认知中非常重要的一部分。
And then I experienced an injury that took me out of endurance sports, particularly running in triathlon that had been a very large part of my identity and how I saw myself.
我小腿的某种状况,最终导致我过早地提前退役,彻底告别了所有竞技耐力运动。
A condition in my calf really led to a very early premature retirement from all competitive endurance sports.
当然,还有社会层面的变化,其中一些变化在美国尤为独特。
And then, of course, there were the societal changes, some of which are rather unique to being an American.
地缘政治的转变,比如唐纳德·特朗普在2016年当选。
There's the geopolitical shift, election of Donald Trump in 2016.
然后是新冠病毒和新冠疫情。
Then there's the corona nineteen virus and pandemic.
因此,我亲身经历了这些个人变化,以及这些社会变化。
So I was living through all of these personal changes, then these societal changes.
我将自己的经历分享给了同事、朋友、邻居和其他社区成员,最先得到的回应是大量的共情。
And I shared my experience with colleagues, friends, neighbors, other folks in the community, and the first thing I got was a whole lot of empathy.
不只是我一个人这样。
It wasn't just me.
太多人感觉,无论是个人、职业还是社会层面,变化的步伐都大大加快了。
So many people feel like the pace of change has really accelerated both in personal and professional in societally.
我相信我们之后会深入探讨这一点。
I'm sure we'll get into it.
我对人们为何有这种感受有一些假设。
I have some hypotheses as for why people feel that way.
但归根结底,我这个人并不喜欢变化。
But, ultimately, I am someone that doesn't really like change.
当事情稳定时,我才能发挥得最好。
I thrive when things are stable.
在我的研究中,我最早了解到的一点是,这不仅仅是我一个人如此。
And one of the first things that I learned in my research is that it's not just me.
所有生物在稳定状态下才能茁壮成长。
All living organisms thrive when we have stability.
我研究中发现的第二点是,普通成年人一生中会经历超过35次重大生活变化。
The second thing that I learned in my research is that the average adult goes through more than 35 major life changes.
因此这里存在一个悖论:我们往往在稳定时感觉最好,但事实上,我们每个人的生活都几乎没有持久的稳定。
So there's a paradox there that we tend to feel our best when there's stability, yet none of us really have very much lasting stability in our life at all.
我感觉自己被困在两个极端之间:一边是试图否认和抗拒变化、执着于稳定,但这只会带来不安和焦虑;另一边是完全放弃抵抗,顺其自然,但这并不符合我的天性,也不符合许多人的天性。
And I felt very much stuck between extremes of trying to deny and resist change and cling to stability, which just seemed to lead to restlessness and angst versus completely throwing one's hands up and saying, I'm just gonna go with the flow and completely surrender, which isn't really in my nature and and is not in the nature of so many people.
这让我深入探索了我们为何以这种方式理解变化,我们是如何走到今天的,以及是否存在更好的工具、框架和思维模型来帮助我们应对变化。
And that really led me into this exploration of why we conceive of change the way that we do, how we got here, and and might there be better tools and and better frameworks and and mental models for thinking about navigating change.
2021年初,当你听到人们谈论新冠疫情,说‘但愿某天我们能回到正常状态’时,你开始思考这个问题。
Early in 2021, you started grappling with this question when you were listening to people talking about COVID and saying, well, let's hope that at some point we can get back to normal.
你开始思考这种变化带来的影响,并由此想到不同的应对变化的模型。
And you started thinking about the implications of that change and it led you to think about different models for navigating change.
其中之一是稳态,另一个是你发现的一个更适合作为理解变化的模型——即应变稳态。
Of which was homeostasis and one of which was a term that you tapped into, a term that you think is a better model for understanding change, which is allostasis.
你能为我们详细解释一下吗?
Can you talk us through that?
因为这是一个重要的智力框架,它让我们意识到,我们必须以不同的方式思考变化。
Because it's an important intellectual framework for understanding that we actually have to think about change differently.
是的。
Yeah.
没错。
That's right.
在那之前,我忘了提到过去十年中我经历的另一个巨大而重要的变化。
And and before I do that, I forgot another just huge significant change that I underwent in the last decade.
从童年、青年时期,甚至到中年早期,我一直有着非常良好的心理健康。
And that is throughout my childhood and early adulthood and even into middle adulthood, I had always, like, very sound mental health.
大约在30岁的时候,我突然遭遇了严重的临床抑郁症,来得毫无预兆,让我在将近一年的时间里都病得很重。
And around the age of 30, I suffered a very severe clinical depression that really came out of nowhere and made me quite sick for the better part of a year.
所以,这又是另一个我完全无法想象的巨大动荡,它同样发生在我写这本书之前这段充满变化的时期。
So that was another just huge disruption that I could have never never imagined, and that's within that same chapter preceding this book of of all this change.
因此,这真的是好、坏、丑陋的全部,但一切都感觉在不断波动、持续变化。
So it really was the good, the bad, the ugly, but everything just felt like it was constantly in flux and and constantly shifting.
所以我想要提一下这一点,因为我觉得这很重要。
So wanted to throw that in because I think that's important.
那么,稳态与应变稳态。
So homeostasis versus allostasis.
在我看来,许多——如果不是全部——播客听众都听说过稳态这个术语,它甚至可以追溯到17世纪初。
Homeostasis, my sense is that many, if not all, listeners of the podcast will have heard of this term, and it traces itself all the way back to the early sixteen hundreds.
所以在我们有任何所谓的科学之前,甚至在经验主义刚刚萌芽的时候。
So long before we had any sort of, quote, unquote, science and really just to the beginnings of empiricism.
也就是说,社区中的人们会观察到某种现象,然后再次观察,接着围绕它形成一种理论。
Meaning, people in the community would observe something, and then they'd observe it again, and then they develop a theory around it.
对吧?
Right?
就在这个时期,这种做法才刚刚开始出现。
This is what's just starting to happen at this time period.
稳态是一个术语,用来描述17世纪末人们生病时所观察到的现象。
And homeostasis is a term that describes what people saw when those in the late sixteen hundreds got ill.
大多数人的体温大约在98.6华氏度,但当你生病时,体温会升高发烧。
So most people would have a body temperature of around 98.6, and then you get sick and you spike a fever.
因此,当免疫系统调动反应时,你的体温会上升。
So your body temperature raises as an immune system marshals a response.
这远早于我们拥有抗生素或抗病毒药物的时代。
And this is long before we had antibiotics or antivirals.
所以你生病了,发了烧。
So you got sick, you had a fever.
那时候,有些人会去世,他们的体温再也无法恢复正常。
And what would happen back then is some people would die, and their body temperature never returned to normal.
而另一些人,随着时间推移,体温会恢复到正常水平。
And other people, over time, their body temperature would return to normal.
他们战胜了感染,恢复了健康。
They'd fight off the infection, they'd be healthy.
因此,稳态描述的是一种模式:从有序或稳定,到无序或不稳定,比如发烧。
So homeostasis describes change as a pattern of order or stability, then disorder or instability, in this case, a fever.
接着它指出,一个健康的系统会尽可能快地恢复到有序状态。
And then it says that a healthy system gets back to order as quickly as it can.
所以这是一个从有序到无序,再回到有序的过程。
So it's order, disorder, back to order.
最初,这个概念只是为了描述发烧,但在过去的五百年里,天啊,范围扩大得真厉害,它变成了描述一切变化的主流思维模型和框架。
And what started out truly to describe a fever over the last five hundred years, talk about scope creep, it became the prevailing mental model and framework for all change.
所以这不仅适用于人类生物学,也适用于人类心理学,不仅在个人层面,也在组织层面。
So not just for human biology, but for human psychology, not just on the individual level, but on the organizational level.
现在你可以在互联网上花时间思考:我该如何改变我的理财习惯?
And now you can spend time in the Internet and say, how do I change my financial habits?
我该如何改变我的健康习惯?
How do I change my health habits?
我该如何减肥?
How do I lose weight?
而所有这些搜索引擎结果的第一页,都会提到对抗稳态,或对抗那种想要保持原状、回归稳定状态的自然倾向。
And the first page of all those SEO hits is gonna be something about fighting against homeostasis or fighting against the natural urge to stay the same or go back to order.
因此,这一直是人们思考变化的主流模式。
So that had been the prevailing model of how people think about change.
而这种模式隐含的前提是:变化本质上是负面的,因为我们希望从混乱中回到原来的状态。
And baked into that model is that change is inherently bad, right, because we wanna move from disorder back to where we were.
因此,目标就是抵制变化、避免变化,或者当我们面对变化时,立即恢复稳定。
And the goal then is to resist change to avoid it, or when we're faced with change, to immediately get back to stability.
大约二十年前,一群主要来自宾夕法尼亚大学的前沿跨学科科学家产生了一个小小的顿悟:虽然稳态可以描述发烧时发生的情况,但它并不适合作为理解我们所经历的大多数其他变化的模型。
Now about twenty years ago, a cohort of cutting edge interdisciplinary scientists largely based out of the University of Pennsylvania, they had a little bit of an epiphany, which is essentially homeostasis, while it describes what happens when you have a fever, it's actually not a very good fit model for thinking about most other changes that we undergo.
他们对个体层面、组织层面乃至物种层面进行了大规模分析,研究那些能够持久并应对挑战的系统,它们的路径是什么?
And they did this big analysis of both at the individual level, but then also at the organizational level and even at the species level, how those that endure and weather challenges, what's their path?
它们遵循的模型是什么?
What's the model that they follow?
他们发现了一种称为‘异质稳态’的反应。
And what they found is they found this allostatic response.
他们创造了‘异质稳态’这个术语,其核心观点是:当面对变化时,一个健康的生物系统会从有序走向无序,再重新达到有序。
They coined this term allostasis, which essentially says that when faced with change, a healthy living system moves from order to disorder to reorder.
确实,我们渴望稳定,但这种稳定总是全新的状态。
So it's true that we crave stability, but that stability is always somewhere new.
我们不会回到原来的地方。
We don't go back to where we were.
我认为这些术语的词源非常优雅地概括了这个故事。
And I think the etymology of these words really elegantly sums up the story.
因此,homeostasis(稳态)来自拉丁语词根homo,意思是相同,以及stasis,意思是静止。
So homeostasis comes from the Latin root homo, which means same, and then stasis, which means standing.
所以它认为,我们通过保持不变来实现稳定。
So it argues that we achieve stability by staying the same.
对吧?
Right?
这就是目标。
That's the goal.
保持不变,实现稳定。
Stay the same, achieve stability.
Allostasis(适应性稳定)来自拉丁语词根allo,意思是变化或可变,而stasis再次意思是静止。
Allostasis comes from the Latin root allo, which means change or variable, and then stasis, which again means standing.
因此,适应性稳定认为,我们通过变化来实现稳定。
So allostasis says that we achieve stability through change.
它具有一个优雅的双重含义:第一,通过变化实现稳定是可能的。
And it has this elegant double meaning, which is that, one, it's possible to be stable through change.
其二,通过变化来实现稳定的方式就是变化,至少要在某种程度上做出改变。
And two, the way to be stable through change is through change, is by changing at least to some extent.
这两种不同的模型实际上形成了两种完全改变你应对不确定性、变化和不稳定性方式的心态。
And those two different models really become these mindsets that totally transform how you approach uncertainty, change, and instability.
对吧?
Right?
因为在一种模型中,变化本质上是一种威胁,目标是回到原来的状态。
Because in one model, it's inherently a threat, and the goal is to get back to where you were.
而在另一种模型中,这仅仅是热力学第一定律:事物趋向于混乱和熵增,我们始终存在于不断变化的系统中。
And in the other model, it is just the first rule of thermodynamics, that things move towards chaos and entropy, and that we're always existing in systems that are changing.
目标不是通过抗拒变化来保持稳定。
And the goal isn't to be stable by resisting change.
那是徒劳的。
That's a fool's errand.
目标是通过变化的过程、通过秩序、无序、再秩序的循环来实现稳定。
The goal is to be stable through the process of change, through those cycles of order, disorder, reorder.
我觉得有趣的是,你在书中也提到了这一点,这是灵性传统所理解的,而科学往往没有意识到。
I think curiously, and you tap into this in your book, this is something that spiritual traditions understood in a way that maybe science often didn't.
没错,你提到了基督教神学家理查德·罗尔,他谈到了从秩序到混乱再到重新秩序的过程。
So, right, you mentioned Richard Rohr, the Christian theologian who talked about going from order to disorder to reorder.
我的书《理查德·怀斯曼更快乐》中有一章就叫《一切都在变化》。
I mean, I have a chapter in my book, Richard Wiser Happier titled Everything Changes.
这一章以铃木俊隆《禅心·初心》的名言开篇,他说:一切都在变化,这是每个存在最基本的事实。
That begins with a famous quote from Shunryu Suzuki, the author of Zen Mind, Beginner's Mind, who said that everything changes is the basic truth for each existence.
没有人能否认这个真理,佛教的所有教义都浓缩于其中。
No one can deny this truth, and all the teaching of Buddhism is condensed within it.
他在那本出色的书中后来进一步说,如果我们不能接受‘一切都在变化’这一教义,我们就无法保持平静。
And one of the things that he then went on to say later in that book, which is a terrific book, is he said, If we cannot accept this teaching that everything changes, we cannot be in composure.
我在写这本书时深受触动,因为整个变化的主题在投资领域中无处不在。
And I was very struck when I was working on my book that this whole theme of change runs massively through investing.
你比如霍华德·马克斯就说:好吧。
You have someone like Howard Marks saying, Well, okay.
如果一切都在不断变化,包括经济、市场、行业、公司以及我们自己的生活,那么我实际上必须适应事物正在变化的现实。
If everything is in constant flux, including the economy and markets and industries and companies and our own lives, then actually somehow I have to accommodate myself to the reality that things are changing.
不能一味地否认这一点。
Can't just be in denial.
而这实际上帮助他成为了亿万富翁。
And so that's actually really helped him to become a multi billionaire.
同样,比尔·米勒——他那个时代最伟大的共同基金经理——二十多年前曾对我说过:世界在变化。
And likewise, Bill Miller, who was the greatest mutual fund manager of his generation said to me at one point twenty something years ago, The world changes.
这是市场最大的问题。
This is the biggest problem in markets.
所以我觉得有趣的是,这种看似抽象的‘变化’主题,几千年来一直贯穿于灵性传统,也贯穿于投资和商业,因为这正是我们生活、企业和投资所依赖的极其不稳定的流沙。
And so I think what's curious is that this whole theme of change, which seems kind of abstract, has actually run through spirituality for thousands of years and has also run through investing and business because it's just the incredibly shaky quicksand on which our lives and businesses and investments are constructed.
因此,我的感受是我们必须适应这一现实,无论我们是想构建霍华德·马克所说的‘反脆弱’生活,还是‘反脆弱’的投资组合。
And so my sense is just we have to accommodate ourselves to this reality, whether we're trying to construct, Howard Marks would say, an anti fragile life or an anti fragile portfolio.
抱歉说了这么长的一段话,但布拉德,这让你有什么想法吗?
Sorry for that long soliloquy, but does that raise any thoughts from you, Brad?
是的,确实如此。
Oh, it does.
首先,我不意外地同意你的观点。
So the first is I unsurprisingly tend to agree with you.
我认为在混乱与重新有序之间,常常存在许多机会。
I think that in between disorder and reorder, there are often many opportunities.
如果你是一名投资者,这可能是一个超越市场的机会。
So if you're an investor, that could be an opportunity to beat the market.
这可能是一个提前把握即将出现的重新有序趋势的机会。
That could be an opportunity to be a little bit ahead of what's already priced in on the coming reorder.
如果你是一名运动员,正在经历伤病,这可能是一个重塑你的打法或调整自己、以不同姿态回归的机会。
If you're an athlete that is undergoing an injury, that could be an opportunity to reshape your game or to make adjustments to come back a different player.
如果你身处一段关系中,无论是商业伙伴关系还是浪漫关系,混乱时期如果能通过共同克服挑战而重新走到一起,往往也是关系成长的契机。
If you are in a relationship, whether it's a business partnership or romantic partnership, a period of disorder can be a time for growth in the relationship if you can come back together having learned from the challenge.
在我们的个人生活中,当我们身处混乱之中时,尽管这可能感觉极其不适,有时甚至令人羞愧和痛苦,但研究表明,当我们度过这些挑战后,往往会从中获得某种意义和成长。
And in our personal lives, when we're in the midst of disorder, even though it can feel extremely uncomfortable and at times even mortifying and painful, the research shows that when we get to the other side of these challenges, we tend to derive some meaning and some growth from them.
所以我认为,不管我们喜不喜欢,一切都如你所说在变化。
So I think that it's just whether we like it or not, everything changes as you said.
无常是所有古老智慧传统的基本法则,也是物理学的第一条法则。
Like, impermanence is just a basic rule of every ancient wisdom tradition, and it is the first rule of physics.
因此,无论你从科学角度还是精神角度看待,都会得出相同的结论。
So whether you look at it from a scientific angle or a spiritual angle, you come to the same place.
无常是双向作用的。
And impermanence works both ways.
有时它带来真正的挑战和痛苦,有时它也带来美好的事物。
Sometimes it's a cause of real challenge and distress, and sometimes it's a cause of wonderful things.
它就是我们呼吸的空气。
It's just the air that we breathe.
我想说的另一件有趣的事情是,这在我的第一本书《扎根的实践》中是一个主题。
The other thing that I would say that I think is really interesting, and this is a theme that is in my first book, the practice of groundedness.
我来自一个投资者家庭。
So I come from a family of investors.
我不知道你是否知道这一点关于我。
I don't know if you know that about me.
我打破了常规,选择了成为作家和教练。
I kind of broke the mold and went off and became an author and a coach.
我的祖父是一位投资者。
So my grandfather was a investor.
我父亲也是一位投资者。
My father's an investor.
我的表亲接管了这项业务,曾经一直试图让我和他一起工作,不过大概十年前他就不再劝我了。
My cousin took over the practice and has been trying to get me to I guess he stopped about ten years ago trying to get me to work with him.
我从小就在金融环境中长大。
So I grew up around finance.
均值回归这个概念一直深深影响着我,让我明白在一种非稳态系统中,你会经历秩序、混乱、再秩序的循环。
And the concept of regression to the mean has always stuck with me in how in an allostatic system, you are going through these cycles of order, disorder, reorder.
有时,整个曲线会以非常难以预测的方式发生偏移。
And sometimes, the entire curve shifts in ways that are very hard to predict.
它们是无法预测的。
They're impossible to predict.
但一般来说,随着系统的发展和变化,所有变异中总会有一些线索。
But, generally, there's some signal amidst all the variants as the system progresses and moves towards change.
我认为这一点很重要。
And I think that's important to keep in mind.
因此,在一切不断变化的同时,也存在某种基本的稳定性,以及可能改变整个曲线的代际事件。
So at the same time that everything's always changing, there's some kind of base stability, and then there's these generational events that perhaps shift the entire curve.
我认为,良好地应对生活和市场,可能取决于同时保持这些相互矛盾的观点。
And I think navigating life well and navigating markets well probably depends on holding these competing ideas at the same time.
是的。
Yeah.
我认为,这正是你在书中非常擅长的一点,我们稍后会谈到:你有能力将相互矛盾或冲突的观点保持在某种动态张力中。
And I think that's one thing you're very good at in your books and that we'll come to later is you have this ability to hold contradictory or conflicting ideas in some sort of dynamic tension.
这通常是‘是的,而且’,而不是‘非此即彼’。
It's often yes and rather than either or.
我们稍后再谈这个。
We'll get to that later.
我想这正是那一章《一切都在变化》的主要主题之一,我当时在写霍华德·马克斯时提到,某种程度上你真的陷入困境,因为未来是不可知的,一切都在变化。
I guess this is one of the great themes of that chapter, Everything Changes, where I was writing about Howard Marks, is that in some ways you're in real trouble because the future is unknowable and everything is changing.
然而,我们必须对未来做出决策,无论是投资者、父母,还是选择居住地、从事什么工作,等等。
Yet we have to make decisions about the future, both investors and parents and where we're living or what job to take or anything like that.
另一方面,正如霍华德会指出的,你可以回顾过去的周期,看到某些事情会重复发生,比如人类的贪婪、过度兴奋和非理性繁荣。
And on the other hand, as Howard would point out, you can look at the cycles of the past and you can see that there are certain things that repeat, like patterns of human greed or overexcitement and irrational exuberance.
因此,有些事情会重复,也有些事情是全新的。
And so there are things that repeat and there are things that are totally new.
这正是投资如此难以捉摸和复杂的原因之一,因为你很难判断,这究竟是一个真正的全新范式,还是只是老一套的重演?
And this is one of the things that makes investing so unbelievably difficult and complex because it's hard to tell, like, is this really a new paradigm or is it just the same old thing?
所以,我真的很想深入问问你,我们有哪些工具可以用来应对变化,因为你非常务实,善于分析我们该如何应对,并为我们提供了切实可行的方法。
So anyway, I wanted to ask you really in some depth about the various tools that we can use to navigate change because you're so practical about analyzing how we can do this and giving us practical methods for doing this.
但首先,我想请你明确一下《变革大师》这个概念的核心——也就是‘坚韧的灵活性’这个术语。
But first, I wanted really to get you to define the idea, the concept that's really at the heart of Master of Change, which is this term rugged flexibility.
你能解释一下你所说的‘坚韧灵活’是什么意思吗?为什么我们需要同时具备这两种特质?
Can you define what you mean about it and explain why we need to be both rugged and flexible?
为什么我们需要这两种看似对立的能力,以便以巧妙而稳健的方式应对这个高度不确定的变革世界?
Why we need these two opposing capabilities so that we can navigate this very uncertain changing world in a deft and robust way?
所谓坚韧,就是坚定、耐用、非常强大。
So to be rugged is to be determined, durable, very robust.
纳西姆·塔勒布会称之为‘反脆弱’。
Nassim Taleb would say antifragile.
而所谓灵活,就是柔软、有弹性,容易弯曲而不折断。
And to be flexible is to be soft and supple and to bend easily without breaking.
表面上看,这两个词是相互对立的。
And on its face, these are two opposite terms.
对吧?
Right?
但在为这本书进行报道和研究的过程中,我发现那些能够承受变化并从变化中成长的人,并不是单纯地坚韧或灵活。
But in my reporting and research for this book, what I found is that those individuals that are able to withstand change and and grow from change, they're not rugged or flexible.
他们是既坚韧又灵活的。
They're rugged and flexible.
因此,他们在这两种特质上得分都很高。
So they would score very high on both of these traits.
当你放大视角,观察迄今为止规模最大、最根本的变革时,你就明白了我们今天为何会在这里,威廉。
And then you zoom out and you look at the empirical change for which is by far of the greatest magnitude, and and that's how you and I got here today, William.
这是进化,适者生存,物种选择。
It's evolution, the survival of the fittest and selection of species.
本质上,在地球尺度上,你会经历秩序的周期——先是稳定,然后是混乱。
Essentially, what happens on a scale of the planet is you have cycles of order where there's stability and then disorder.
比如气候变化。
So there's climate change.
比如陨石撞击。
There's a meteor.
某种顶级捕食者发生了变化,整个生态系统就会陷入混乱。
Something happens to an apex predator, and the whole ecosystem shifts into disorder.
然后就是重新排序。
And then there's reorder.
对吧?
Right?
结果会变得不一样。
It comes out different.
当你观察那些存活时间最长的物种时,进化生物学家发现,这些物种都具有坚韧和灵活的特性。
And you look at species that have survived over time for the longest durations, And what evolutionary biologists find is that those species are rugged and flexible.
这是我的说法。
Those are my terms.
进化生物学家会说它们具有高度复杂性。
An evolutionary biologist would say they're highly complex.
但这意味着,物种中有一些部分对其本质至关重要,如果这些部分发生变化,该物种将不再能被识别。
But what this means is that there are parts of the species that are so central and core to what they are that if those parts changed, the species would no longer be recognizable.
那就成了一个新的物种。
It would be a new species.
但在这些核心特征和关键部分之外,也就是我所说的韧性的基础,如果你在其他所有方面不够灵活,你也同样会被淘汰。
But outside of those central features and those core parts, what I call the basis of ruggedness, if you're not extremely flexible on everything else, then you're also gonna get selected out.
所以,如果你完全没有韧性,而全是灵活性,那就根本没有重心。
So if you have no ruggedness and it's all flexibility, then there's really no center of gravity.
那就没有了‘你’。
There's no you.
那就没有了力量。
There's no strength.
但如果你在各个方面都过于僵化,无法适应或在其他任何事情上灵活变通,那么当发生重大变化或局势转变时,你就会被淘汰。
But if you're so rugged across the board that you can't be adaptable and you can't be flexible on anything else, then when there's a big change or when something shift, you're gonna get selected out.
或者在个人层面上,你会遭受焦虑和神经质的折磨。
Or an individual level, you're gonna suffer from anxiety and neuroticism.
所以,我对行星尺度的进化不感兴趣,但我认为我们个人的进化、组织的进化,或者家庭的进化,都遵循着同样的框架,也就是这种顺序、混乱、重新排序、稳定、不稳定、新稳定的模式。
So I'm not interested in studying evolution at the planetary scale, but I think that our personal evolution and our organizational evolution or the evolution of a family, it follows that same framework, right, of this order, disorder, reorder, stability, instability, new stability.
而应对这些循环的方法,就是弄清楚什么才是核心,什么才是真正塑造你自我的东西。
And the way to work through those cycles is to know what's core and what makes you who you really are as a person.
或者作为一个投资者,你的原则、你的理念、你对市场的看法,这些都不能动摇。
Or if it's as an investor, your principles, your philosophy, your philosophy of the market, and not to budge on those things.
对吧?
Right?
这些才是你坚韧的源泉。
Those are your sources of ruggedness.
这些才是你愿意为之献身的原则。
Those are the hills to die on.
而在其他所有方面,则要愿意保持灵活、适应和改变。
And then to be willing to be flexible and to adapt and to change on everything else.
因此,必须非常清晰地认识到:哪些是你核心的价值观,哪些是你指导性的原则,而哪些只是可以改变的习惯。
So really getting really clear on what are your core values, what are your guiding principles, and then what is merely habit that you can be willing to change on.
这一点在你应对生活中某个领域变化时也同样适用。
And this holds true at the level of how you would navigate change in a certain domain of life.
比如,一个受伤的运动员,一个孩子离家的父母,一个即将退休的人。
So as an athlete that gets injured, is somebody whose kids are moving out of the house, is someone that's approaching retirement.
但当你从整体上思考自己的人生,思考自己如何随着时间推移而衰老和成长时,这种‘坚韧的灵活性’同样适用。
But it also holds true as you think about your life as a whole and just how you age and how you grow over time, this notion of rugged flexibility.
它真正解决了我个人在寻找新方式看待变化时所面临的困境。
And it really solved my personal problem of needing a new way to think about change.
正如我在书的开头以及本次对话开始时提到的,我本人对变化感到挣扎,但我也是一名现实主义者。
As I mentioned at the start of the book and as I mentioned in the start of this conversation, I personally struggle with change, but I'm also a realist.
我以能够有时看得太过透彻而自豪。
I pride myself on seeing things sometimes too clearly.
我意识到,一切都在变化,但我并不喜欢没有重心的感觉。
And I saw that, like, everything changes, but I didn't like the idea of not having a center of gravity.
对我而言,‘坚韧的灵活性’是一个能解决这个问题的框架——它允许你保持坚韧,通过某些核心特质来定义自己,拥有一个立足之地,同时又要求你在这些核心特征周围展现出极大的灵活性。
And rugged flexibility for me is a construct that solves that because it gives you permission to be rugged and to define yourself by something and to have a ground that you stand on while at the same time asking yourself to practice massive flexibility around those core features.
克莱,我们先短暂休息一下,听听今天赞助商的广告。
Clay Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors.
不行。
No.
这不是你的错觉。
It's not your imagination.
风险和监管正在加剧,客户现在要求提供安全证明才能开展业务。
Risk and regulation are ramping up and customers now expect proof of security just to do business.
这就是为什么Vanta是一个变革者。
That's why Vanta is a game changer.
Vanta自动化您的合规流程,将合规、风险和客户信任整合到一个由AI驱动的平台上。
Vanta automates your compliance process and brings compliance, risk and customer trust together on one AI powered platform.
无论您是在准备SOC 2审计还是运行企业GRC项目,Vanta都能确保您的安全并推动交易顺利进行。
So whether you're prepping for a SOC two or running an enterprise GRC program, Vanta keeps you secure and keeps your deals moving.
与其追逐电子表格和截图,Vanta为您提供跨三十五多个安全与隐私框架的持续自动化。
Instead of chasing spreadsheets and screenshots, Vanta gives you continuous automation across more than thirty five secondurity and privacy frameworks.
像Ramp和Ryder这样的公司使用Vanta后,审计时间减少了82%。
Companies like Ramp and Ryder spend 82% less time on audits with Vanta.
这不仅仅是更快的合规,更是为增长争取了更多时间。
That's not just faster compliance, it's more time for growth.
如果我现在正在运营一家初创公司或扩大团队,这正是我想要部署的平台类型。
If I were running a startup or scaling a team today, this is exactly the type of platform I'd want in place.
请前往 vanta.com/billionaires 开始使用。
Get started at vanta.com/billionaires.
那就是 vanta.com/billionaires。
That's vanta.com/billionaires.
如果你经营企业,最近很可能也产生过同样的想法。
If you run a business, you've probably had the same thought lately.
我们如何让人工智能在现实世界中真正发挥作用?
How do we make AI useful in the real world?
因为潜在收益巨大,但靠猜测进入这个领域风险很高。
Because the upside is huge, but guessing your way into it is a risky move.
借助甲骨文的 NetSuite,您今天就能让人工智能发挥作用。
With NetSuite by Oracle, you can put AI to work today.
NetSuite 是全球超过 43,000 家企业信赖的头号人工智能云 ERP 系统。
NetSuite is the number one AI cloud ERP trusted by over 43,000 businesses.
它将您的财务、库存、电商、人力资源和客户关系管理整合到一个统一的系统中。
It pulls your financials, inventory, commerce, HR, and CRM into one unified system.
而这种互联的数据正是让您的AI变得更智能的关键。
And that connected data is what makes your AI smarter.
它能够自动化日常任务,提供可操作的洞察,帮助您降低成本,同时自信地做出快速的AI驱动决策。
It can automate routine work, surface actionable insights, and help you cut costs while making fast AI powered decisions with confidence.
现在,借助NetSuite AI连接器,您可以使用自己选择的AI工具直接连接到真实的业务数据。
And now with the NetSuite AI Connector, you can use the AI of your choice to connect directly to your real business data.
这并不是一个附加功能,而是内置在支撑您业务的系统中的AI。
This isn't some add on, it's AI built into the system that runs your business.
无论您的公司年收入是数百万还是数亿,NetSuite都能帮助您保持领先。
And whether your company does millions or even hundreds of millions, NetSuite helps you stay ahead.
如果您年收入达到七位数以上,请免费获取他们的商业指南《AI解密》,网址为netsuite.com/study。
If your revenues are at least in the 7 figures, get their free business guide, Demystifying AI at netsuite.com/study.
这份指南免费提供,访问netsuite.com/study即可获取。
The guide is free to you at netsuite.com/study.
Netsuite.com/study.
Netsuite.com/study.
当我开始自己的副业时,突然感觉我必须在一夜之间变成十个人,戴上各种不同的帽子。
When I started my own side business, it suddenly felt like I had to become 10 different people overnight wearing many different hats.
从零开始做一件事可能令人兴奋,但也非常令人不知所措和孤独。
Starting something from scratch can feel exciting, but also incredibly overwhelming and lonely.
这就是为什么拥有正确的工具很重要。
That's why having the right tools matters.
对数百万企业来说,这个工具就是Shopify。
For millions of businesses, that tool is Shopify.
Shopify是全球数百万企业的电商平台,占美国电子商务总量的10%,涵盖从初创品牌到家喻户晓的企业。
Shopify is the commerce platform behind millions of businesses around the world and 10% of all e commerce in The US from brands just getting started to household names.
它为你提供了一站式解决方案,涵盖库存、支付和分析等所有需求。
It gives you everything you need in one place from inventory to payments to analytics.
因此你不必在多个不同平台之间来回切换。
So you're not juggling a bunch of different platforms.
你可以使用数百个现成的模板构建一个精美的在线商店,Shopify 还内置了众多实用的 AI 工具,能够撰写产品描述,甚至优化你的产品摄影。
You can build a beautiful online store with hundreds of ready to use templates and Shopify is packed with helpful AI tools that write product descriptions and even enhance your product photography.
此外,如果你遇到任何困难,他们提供屡获殊荣的 24 小时客户支持。
Plus, if you ever get stuck, they've got award winning 20 customer support.
今天就与业内最佳的商业伙伴 Shopify 一起开启你的事业,立即注册每月仅需 1 美元的试用期,访问 shopify.com/wsb。
Start your business today with the industry's best business partner, Shopify, and start hearing Sign up for your $1 per month trial today at shopify.com/wsb.
前往 shopify.com/wsb。
Go to shopify.com/wsb.
就是 shopify.com/wsb。
That's shopify.com/wsb.
好的。
Alright.
回到节目。
Back to the show.
我想和你深入探讨一些实用的工具、方法和策略,帮助我们在日常生活中培养坚韧的适应力。
I wanna talk in some depth with you about various practical tools and practices and strategies to develop rugged flexibility in our daily life.
因为这将极大地帮助我们的听众,无论是作为投资者、家庭成员,还是在构建职业生涯和对待健康等方面,方方面面都会受益。
Because this is gonna help our listeners a great deal as investors, as family people, as people constructing a career in our approach to our health, everything really.
所以我想详细地跟你探讨一些你写过的工具,不仅在这本最新著作中,还包括你之前的书和播客里提到的内容。
So I wanna go through in some detail various tools that you've written about, not only in this latest book, but also actually in your previous book and on your podcast, you've talked about it.
我会在节目笔记中包含大量这些参考资料和资源。
And I'll include a lot of these sources and resources in the show notes.
你刚才提到了核心价值观。
You mentioned core values a minute ago.
显然,这是非常重要的一环,即在一开始就要弄清楚你真正信奉什么,这样才能为你指明方向。
Obviously, that's really an important aspect of this, is figuring out what you really stand for in the beginning, so that's gonna guide you.
你能谈谈核心价值观作为指引你应对这些挑战、变化和动荡的北极星,其重要性吗?
Can you talk a little bit about the importance of core values as a kind of north star to guide you through these challenges and changes and disruptions?
同时,也请告诉我们,建立或明确我们自身价值观的明智流程是什么?
And also then give us a sense of what actually is a smart process for establishing or clarifying what our values might be.
核心价值观是你所遵循的原则,或是你所向往的品质。
Core values are your guiding principles or the qualities to which you aspire.
这些就是对你来说最重要的事情。
So these are the things that are most important to you.
一些例子包括健康、创造力、同情心、力量、善良、智慧、理性、严谨、正直、灵性、家庭、理性等等。
A few examples are health, creativity, compassion, strength, kindness, wisdom, intellect, rigor, integrity, spirituality, family, reason, so on and so forth.
大量心理学研究显示,当你拥有两到五个核心价值观,并且清晰地意识到它们是什么,以及如何践行它们时,你在面临威胁、挑战或变化时往往会感到更少的压力。
And a whole lot of psychology research shows is that when you have about anywhere from two to five core values and when you're acutely aware of what those are and also how to practice them, you tend to feel less stress when you are under threat or when there's challenges or changes.
而且你也更容易应对变化,因为你拥有一个指南针。
And you also tend to navigate change better because you have essentially a compass.
你有你的核心价值观来帮助你指引方向。
You have your core values to help guide you.
因此,了解你的核心价值观的价值在于,当你面对变化,感觉周围的一切都在动荡、变化,你脚下的根基被抽走时,如果你清楚自己的核心价值观,你就可以问自己:在这种情况下,富有创造力的做法会是什么?
So that's the value of knowing your core values is that when you're faced with change and when it feels like everything around you is in flux and shifting and the ground that you're standing on is swept out from under you, if you know your core values, you can ask yourself, what would the creative thing to do be here?
重视正直的人会怎么做?
What would someone who values integrity do?
重视智慧的人在这种情况下会怎么做?
What would someone who values wisdom do in this situation?
这些核心价值观会成为舵轮,帮助你在未知中前行。
And then those core values become a rudder to help guide you through the unknown.
关于推导个人核心价值观的过程,这正是接受与承诺疗法的核心,该疗法最初是为了帮助个体应对抑郁而发展起来的。
In terms of a process for deducing one's core values, this lies at the heart of something called acceptance and commitment therapy, which was really developed in first to help individuals through depression.
但自那以后,已有数百甚至数千项研究表明,它不仅是摆脱疾病的模型,更是促进人类繁荣与幸福的有效框架。
But since then, there's been hundreds, even thousands of studies showing that it's a good model for human flourishing and well-being beyond the absence of illness.
在接受与承诺疗法中,其基础非常简单:清晰地觉察并接受正在发生的事,然后承诺以与你核心价值观一致的方式行动。
And within acceptance and commitment therapy, the the basis is very simple, which is see clearly and accept what's happening and then commit to acting in alignment with your core values.
简单并不意味着容易,实践这一过程颇具挑战性。
Now simple doesn't mean easy, and the practice of this is quite challenging.
因此,第一步是确定你的核心价值观。
So the first step is to determine one's core values.
在书中,我列出了100个示例核心价值观,以帮助大家开启头脑风暴,但我发现最有效的方法是将相似的条目归类。
In the book, I list a 100 example core values just to get folks started with brainstorming, but the method that I find works best is to group like terms.
所以,先浏览一份清单,也许你最初列出了20个词。
So go through a list, and maybe you have 20 terms.
再次强调,你希望将核心价值精简到三到五个,甚至两个到五个。
Again, you wanna get down to three to five, even two to five.
然后,你把这20个词根据相似性进行分组。
And then you take those 20 terms, and you start to put them in groups based on similarities.
大多数人发现,最终会形成两到六个组,每组都指向一个较为凝练的主题。
And what most people find is you've got somewhere between two to six groups that are pointing at a somewhat condensed theme.
接着,你需要找到一个能准确代表这个主题的词,并用具体、实际的语言来定义它。
And then you wanna find the right word that represents that theme, and then you wanna define it in real concrete terms.
因为核心价值不应该是仅仅贴在办公室墙上的标语,或贴在镜子上的便利贴。
Because core values, they shouldn't just be something that is on a poster at your office or if it's on a little sticky note on your mirror.
它们应该有真正的分量。
They should have some teeth.
你应该能够践行它们。
You should be able to practice them.
这样,它们才能成为你日常生活中持久的稳定基础。
And that way, they become a basis for stability in your day to day life all the time.
尤其是在事物发生变化时,你可以回顾自己的核心价值观,以帮助指引你走向未知。
And particularly when things are changing, you can look back to your core values to help guide you into the unknown.
我认为一个能生动体现这一点的故事,就是网球巨星罗杰·费德勒的故事——他不仅以网球方面的卓越成就闻名,更以在体育界的持久生涯著称。
I think a story of this that really brings this to life is that of the tennis star Roger Federer, who's known obviously for his greatness in tennis, really for his greatness in sport, but also for his longevity.
费德勒一直打到三十多岁末期,甚至四十岁出头,而在他之前,大多数运动员在年满32岁前就会达到巅峰并退役。
So Federer played well into his late thirties, even early forties in a sport where prior to him, most people would peak and retire before they hit 32.
罗杰·费德勒的出现早于勒布朗·詹姆斯、汤姆·布雷迪和塞雷娜·威廉姆斯。
And Roger Feder, he came before LeBron James, before Tom Brady, before Serena Williams.
他确实是第一位重新定义运动中衰老与持久力的顶级运动员。
He was really the first power sport athlete to redefine aging and longevity in sport.
很多人不知道的是,在33岁到36岁之间,费德勒没有赢得任何一项赛事。
What a lot of people don't know about Roger Federer is that between the ages of 33 and 36, he didn't win a single tournament.
一项赛事都没赢。
Not a single tournament.
回看那段时期关于费德勒的报道,网球界的所有人和评论员都认为,每个网球运动员都会经历的年龄变化,终于追上了罗杰,是时候退役了。
So you look back at articles written about Federer during that time period, and everyone in the tennis community, all the critics, they said that the change that comes for every tennis player aging finally caught up to Roger, and it was time to retire.
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而且他能保持世界级水平到33岁,这本身就说明了问题。
And just the fact that he made it to 33 being world class.
对吧?
Right?
33岁,在这项运动里你简直就是老古董了。
Like, 33, you're a dinosaur in that sport.
那么费德勒做了什么?
So what did Federer do?
在他状态低迷的前一年半里,他基本上采用了维持平衡的模式来应对变化。
For the first year and a half of his slump, he essentially followed a homeostasis model to change.
他试图回到过去的状态。
He tried to get back to where he was.
所以他不断碰壁,一直说:我是历史上最伟大的球员。
So he just kept beating his head against the wall and said, I'm the greatest player of all time.
我仍然想继续打网球。
I still wanna keep playing tennis.
我觉得我可以。
I think I can.
发生什么事了?
What happened?
他反复受伤并表现不佳。
He repeatedly got injured and underperformed.
而在这种表现下滑和伤病持续了一年半左右后,他突然顿悟到自己已经不再是当年的那个球员了。
And then about a year and a half into this journey of underperformance and injury, he had this epiphany that essentially said he's not the same player he was.
他变老了。
He has aged.
费德勒退后一步,做了运动员最难做到的一件事:他将自己核心的价值观——在这个情境下是竞争、精通和对网球的热爱——与习惯区分开来。
And Federer steps back and does something that is so hard for an athlete to do, and he separates what his core values are, which for him in this context, competition, mastery, and the love of the game of tennis from what's habit.
对他来说,习惯就是使用威尔逊球拍、在底线击球、双手反手、每周训练七天。
And for him, what habit was was a Wilson racket playing at the baseline, a two handed backhand, training seven days a week.
所以费德勒说:我想保留我的核心价值观。
So Federer says, I wanna hold on to my core values.
这些才是我力量的源泉。
Those are my sources of ruggedness.
我想继续打网球。
I wanna keep playing tennis.
我想继续竞争,继续沿着精通的道路前进。
I wanna keep competing, and I wanna keep moving down the path of mastery.
但为了做到这一点,他意识到自己必须在其他方面保持灵活。
But in order to do that, he realized he has to be flexible on everything else.
于是他彻底重塑了自己的打法。
So he completely reinvents his game.
他学会了单手反手,以减缓球速。
He learns a one handed backhand to take speed off the ball.
他更多地上网打球,这样可以缩短回合,避免再和年轻选手在底线来回奔跑。
He starts playing at the net more, which has the effect of shortening points so he doesn't have to run back and forth on the baseline against the younger kids.
他彻底调整了训练计划,以留出更多时间休息和恢复。
He completely overhauls his training schedule to allow more time for rest and recovery.
然后他甚至换了球拍。
And then he even changes his racket.
对吧?
Right?
他从15岁起就一直使用同一款球拍,那款球拍让他成为当时史上最伟大的网球选手。
So he had used the same racket since he's 15, made him the greatest tennis player ever at the time.
他采用了新款球拍,配备了所有年轻选手都在使用的全新技术。
And he adopts a new racket that has brand new technology that all the younger kids are using.
结果就是,在37岁时,他取得了职业生涯中最高的胜率。
And and the result of this is at age 37, he has the best winning percentage of his career.
他赢得了两项大满贯冠军。
He wins two major championships.
他重新回到了世界前三的排名,并且一直保持良好状态,直到40岁。
He reclaims a top three ranking in the world, and then he continues to play well until he hits 40.
因此,在我看来,这是一个完美的例子:清楚自己的核心价值观、坚韧的支柱、那些值得为之奋斗的原则,并用它们来指导变革中的决策,同时在其他所有方面保持高度灵活。
So to me, that's this beautiful example of knowing your core values, your sources of ruggedness, the hills you're gonna die on, using them to help determine your next moves during change, but then being very flexible on everything else.
当我写这本书时,我观看了费德勒26岁时和38岁时的比赛录像。
And when I was writing the book, I looked at tape of Federer playing when he was 26 and then again when he was 38.
一方面,他还是同一个罗杰·费德勒。
And on the one hand, he's the same Roger Federer.
但另一方面,他又完全不一样了。
And on the other hand, he's completely different.
我认为,这正是坚韧与灵活的真谛。
And I think that that's what rugged flexibility is all about.
随着时间推移,你依然是二十年前的那个你,但你也已经大不相同了。
Over time, you are the same William as you were twenty years ago, but you're also very different.
这引出了书中核心的智力问题——在自我认知始终变化的情况下,‘自我’究竟意味着什么?
And that gets to kind of the intellectual question at the heart of the book in those wisdom traditions is, what does it mean to have a sense of self when our very senses of selves are always changing?
这可能会让理性化的西方头脑崩溃,但答案是:两者皆是。
And I think it can make a rational Western brain explode, but the answer is both and.
我既是同一个我,又不是同一个我。
I'm both the same and I'm different.
费德勒运用这些核心价值观,即坚韧的源泉,来应对未知,并最终引导自己实现一种服务于核心价值观的重构。
And Federer is someone that used those core values, that source of ruggedness, to navigate the unknown and to ultimately lead himself to a reorder that worked in service of his core values.
你在《变革大师》的结论中提到的一种实践或技巧,实际上是培养一种流动的自我认知。
And one of the practices or tricks that you talk about in the conclusion of the Master of Change is actually developing a fluid sense of self.
这显然与你刚才谈到的费德勒的情况密切相关。
It's clearly related to what you were just talking about with Federer.
你能稍微展开讲一下吗?
Can you expand a little bit on that?
我知道这还与你受伤后不得不停止从事一项曾是你身份重要组成部分的运动有关。
And I know that it had a lot also to do with what happened to you when you had an injury and had to stop playing a sport that had obviously been a huge part of your identity.
你能给我们解释一下,什么是流动的自我认知,以及它为何能帮助我们更好地适应变化吗?
Can you give us a sense of why having a fluid sense of self, a, what it is, and b, why it would actually be helpful in enabling us to adapt to change?
流动的自我认知本质上是要求你将自我身份视为既非完全静态,也非完全模糊不定的东西。
A fluid sense of self essentially asks you to view your identity not as something that is completely static, but not as something that is completely amorphous either.
相反,要围绕你的价值观构建身份,并以较为宽泛的层次来定义这些价值观,然后愿意在这个框架内进行调整。
Rather, to create an identity around your values and define those values at a fairly broad level and then be willing to shift within that structure.
这非常抽象。
So that's very conceptual.
例如,我曾经很长时间把自己定义为一名跑步者。
For example, I, for a long time, had defined myself as a runner.
那是我身份的核心部分。
That was a central part of my identity.
然后我受伤了,再也无法跑步了。
Then I had this injury, and I could no longer run.
我接受了骨科手术。
And I had orthopedic surgery.
我是说,为了接受特殊的治疗,我去了怀俄明州。
I mean, I I went to Wyoming for this special treatment.
在常规治疗失败后,我全力以赴,但还是没用。
After the normal treatment failed, I gave it my all, and it didn't work.
我学到的是,我的价值其实并不在于跑步。
What I've learned is that my value isn't actually running.
我喜欢跑步的原因是它让我能有明确的目标,并在群体中追求它们。
What I liked about running was having objective goals that I could chase in community.
我也喜欢运用自己的身体并挑战自我。
And I also liked using my body and challenging myself.
但这些并不是跑步本身。
But that's not running.
这些是精通。
That's mastery.
这些是社群,以及成为运动员。
That's community, and that's being an athlete.
如果我能将自我认同定义为重视精通、运动能力和社群的人,那么失去跑步并不意味着失去身份。
And if I could define my identity as someone that values mastery and athleticism and community, then losing running is not a loss of identity.
这只是我表达身份一部分的方式发生了转变,但并不会让我觉得失去了自我。
It's a shift in how I express that part of my identity, but it doesn't feel like a loss of who I am.
所以当我看到或听到人们将自己与某项具体活动紧密绑定时,我会劝他们思考:真正核心的是这项活动本身,还是背后更深一两层的东西?
So when I see people and I hear people identify very closely with a specific activity, I urge them to think about, is it really the activity that is core to who you are, or is it something that is maybe a layer or two deeper?
这与书中一个由人本主义哲学家埃里希·弗洛姆提出的框架密切相关,即‘拥有’与‘存在’。
This very much relates to a framework in the book that was first developed by the humanist philosopher Eric Fromm, having versus being.
‘拥有’是指你通过自己所拥有的东西来定义自己。
And having is when you define yourself by what you have.
我拥有这套技能。
So I have this skill set.
我拥有这份收入。
I have this income.
我拥有这栋房子。
I have this house.
我拥有这个孩子。
I have this child.
我拥有这段关系。
I have this relationship.
弗洛姆指出,你所拥有的一切终将改变,而且在某个时刻,很可能会被夺走。
And what Fram points out is that, well, everything that you have is gonna change, and at some point, it will probably be taken away.
所以,如果你用你所拥有的东西来定义自己,那么构建身份就变得非常脆弱。
So if you define yourself by what you have, it's a very precarious way to construct an identity.
而如果你用你是谁,或者他所说的‘存在’取向——也就是我所说的Core Values——来定义自己,那就没人能夺走这些。
Whereas if you define yourself by who you are or what he called your being orientation, what I call your core values, no one can take those away from you.
我经常听到听众提出一个问题:如果我的核心价值观改变了怎么办?
And a common question that I get listeners might have is, well, what if your core values change?
这完全正常。
And that's totally normal.
但即便如此,正是你旧的核心价值观引导你走向了新的价值观。
But even then, it's your old core values that lead you to your new ones.
你的自我认知和身份认同会变得更加流动。
And your sense of self and your sense of identity, it becomes more fluid.
它几乎变成了一种随着时间不断演化的进程,而不是一种你始终试图保护或紧抓不放的静态事物。
It almost becomes like this evolving process over time versus this static thing that you're always trying to protect or hold on to.
书中另一个许多专业人士尤其觉得很有帮助的身份相关框架,就是多元化你的自我认知。
Another framework in the book that so many professionals in particular have found really helpful around identity is this notion of diversifying your sense of self.
在投资方面,我有限的理解是,除非遇到非常特殊的情况,通常都建议你至少在一定程度上分散投资组合,这是一个非常基础的原则。
So in investing, my limited understanding is that it's a pretty foundational rule is that barring very interesting circumstances, you generally wanna diversify your portfolio to at least some degree.
之所以如此,是因为如果你所有的资产都集中在某一类上,而该资产类别发生了意外情况,那你可就完了。
And the reason for that if all your assets are in one class and something unforeseen happens to that asset class, you're SOL.
你将陷入困境。
You're in for it.
你会面临大麻烦。
You're in big trouble.
然而,在我们的身份认同上,我们常常把整个自我都寄托在某一个类别上,比如投资者、父母、运动员或公司领导者。
Yet with our identities, so often, we throw our entire sense of self into one asset class, and that can be the investor, the parent, the athlete, the leader of a company.
如果生活中这一领域发生了变化,尤其是负面变化,可能会让人感觉是对整个自我认同的攻击。
And if there's a change in that area of our life, especially if it's a negative one, it can feel like an attack on our entire sense of self.
如果我们仅凭这种方式来定义自己,那就会陷入麻烦。
And if that's the only way that we define ourself, then we're in for trouble.
对吧?
Right?
所以,就像我们分散投资组合一样,我在书中提出,适度地多元化自己的身份认同其实是很好的,让生活中拥有多个意义来源,这样当你的某一身份受到打击时,可以依靠其他身份获得力量。
So much like we diversify our investment holdings, I argue in the book, it's actually good to diversify your sense of identity a little bit, to have multiple sources of meaning in one's life so that if you take a hit in one area of your identity, you can lean on the others for strength.
是的。
Yeah.
这是一个非常重要的观点。
This is such an important idea.
为了给听众们举几个真实的例子,在我书的后记中,我写到了一位了不起的投资者卡普,他曾经是一位极其成功的对冲基金经理。
And I I mean, to give you a couple of very listeners a couple of very real world examples, in the epilogue of my book, I write about this great investor, Karp, who had been this unbelievably successful hedge fund guy.
他最初为史蒂夫·科恩工作,取得了难以置信的优异业绩,后来自己创办了对冲基金,创下了有史以来最快的基金启动纪录。
He'd started out working for Steve Cohen and had just ridiculously good results and then ended up running his own hedge fund, had the fastest ever startup of any hedge fund.
但后来情况开始恶化。
And then things started to go badly.
我记得当时采访他时,他说:当这一切开始出问题时,我根本不知道该怎么办,因为我从未失败过。
And I remember interviewing him at the time and he said to me, I didn't really know what to do when this started to go wrong because I'd never failed at anything.
他的整个身份突然陷入了混乱。
And his whole identity suddenly was in turmoil.
我曾在播客中采访过杰森,他令人惊叹的地方在于,他成功地重新调整了整个人生,并以一种非凡的方式重塑了自我。
What's kind of amazing about Jason, who I've interviewed on the podcast, is he managed to reorient his whole life and reinvent himself in a kind of spectacular way.
但我也在自己的生活中亲眼见过这种崩塌。
But I've seen that kind of disintegration also actually in my own life.
我当时正在编辑《时代》杂志的欧洲、中东和非洲版,后来在金融危机期间被裁员了。
I was editing the European, Middle East and African editions of Time magazine, and then got laid off in the middle of the financial crisis.
突然间,你会想:等等,我之前每周工作七十、八十个小时,做着我非常擅长的事,现在这一切都没了。
And suddenly you're like, wait a second, I've been working seventy, eighty hours a week at this thing I'm really good at, and now it's gone.
曾经能采访总统和总理,现在却不禁问自己:那我到底是谁?
And instead of getting to interview presidents and prime ministers, you're like, Well, actually, so what am I now?
因此,你不得不接受这样的现实:我是一个父亲、一个丈夫、一个作家,还有其他各种身份——这种根基的瓦解真的非常艰难。
And so having actually to be like, Well, I'm a father and a husband and a writer and all these, it's really hard, that kind of dissolution of the ground on which you stand.
所以我认为,正如你所说的,找到一种流动的自我认知,并且多元化地从多个方面获取生命的意义,这真的非常重要。
So I think this idea of actually finding, a, having, as you put it, a fluid sense of self, but b, diversifying where you're gonna get your meaning from is really important.
我常用来比喻这一点的是,把身份想象成一栋房子。
A metaphor of it I like to use is to think of identity like a house.
如果你的房子只有一个房间,而这个房间着火或淹水了,那你就完蛋了。
So if you have a house and it only has one room in it and that one room catches fire or floods, you're screwed.
这会让人非常混乱。
It's gonna be very discombobulating.
你不得不彻底搬出这所房子。
You're gonna have to move out of the house altogether.
但如果你的房子有多个房间,其中一个房间着火或淹水了,你就可以躲到其他房间,等你处理完火灾或水患。
Whereas if you have a house and it has multiple rooms in it and one room catches fire or floods, you can go into the other rooms to seek refuge while you figure out the fire or flood.
如果我们把身份也这样看待,我们的身份之屋也可以有多个房间。
And if we think about our identities the same way, we can have multiple rooms in our identity house.
可以有投资者的房间、配偶的房间、父母的房间、社区成员的房间、运动员的房间、爱书者的房间、旅行者的房间,有无限种可能。
There can be the investor room, the spouse room, the parent room, the community member room, the athlete room, the book lover room, the travel room, infinite options.
拥有不止一个房间至关重要,因为迟早每个房间都会经历动荡。
It's just so important that we have more than one room because at some point or another, all the rooms are gonna experience turmoil.
但它们不太可能同时经历动荡,因此你总能在身份之屋的其他地方找到避难所。
But odds are they're not all gonna experience turmoil at the same time, so then you get to seek refuge in these other places within your identity house.
还有几点我要说得特别明确一下。
And a couple of things to be really explicit about.
我并不主张平衡。
I don't argue for balance.
我不是说每个房间的大小都应该一样。
I'm not saying that the room should be the same size.
我不是说你应该在每个房间里花同样多的时间。
I'm not saying that you should spend the same amount of time in every room.
我实际上认为,优先分配精力非常好,比如在这个人生阶段,我想全身心投入某些房间,并在这些房间投入不成比例的大量时间。
I actually think that it's very good to prioritize and to say these are the rooms that for this season of life I wanna be all in on and spend a disproportionate share in those rooms.
我只是不认为你应该让那些对你身份至关重要的房间因长期闲置而发霉,因为你永远不知道何时会需要它们。
I just don't think that you should let any rooms that are core to who you are get moldy because you never know when you're gonna need them.
关于这个隐喻,我要说的第二点是——我之前已经提到了这一点。
The second thing that I would say about this metaphor is that and I alluded to this.
当我采访那些职业生涯接近尾声或已经退休、事业成功且人生充满满足感的人时,他们不仅在事业上取得了成就,也在生活中获得了真正的满足,而且他们是用正确的方式做到的。
When I've interviewed people that are towards the end of their careers or that have retired and that have done really well and also have been highly fulfilled and satisfied with not only their career but their life, and they've done it the right way.
所以他们并不是那些服用兴奋剂的运动员。
So they're not athletes that have doped.
他们没有参与欺诈行为。
They haven't engaged in fraud.
他们在通往成功的道路上一直保持着良好的诚信。
They've really had good integrity on their path to success.
我发现,如果你聚焦于他们生命中的任何一个节点,看起来都会非常不平衡。
What I find is that if you zoom in at any one juncture of their life, they look very unbalanced.
但如果你拉远视角,纵观他们的一生,就会发现他们其实相当平衡。
But if you zoom out and look across their whole life, they look quite balanced.
因此,他们的人生有不同的阶段,各有侧重,而他们擅长的是从不让重要的领域变得荒废。
So they have different seasons for different emphases in their life, and what they're good at is they just never let the important rooms get moldy.
也许某个阶段你会全身心投入事业,但婚姻这个领域依然至关重要。
So maybe there's a season where you're going all in on your career, but that marriage room is still really important.
你不能让它变得荒废。
You can't let it get moldy.
这并不意味着你要一直强调它,但你得弄清楚维持这个房间所需的最低有效投入,这样当人生阶段转变时,它依然在那里等着你。
Doesn't mean that you have to emphasize it all the time, but you've gotta figure out what's the minimum effective dose to maintain that room so that when the season of my life shifts, it's still there for me.
我可没让它烂掉。
I haven't let it go to crap.
所以我怎么强调都不为过,一定要明确你身份之屋里的各个房间,清楚知道自己在重点经营哪些房间以及为什么,同时确保从不完全忽视其他重要的房间。
So I just can't emphasize enough how important it is to define the rooms in your identity house, to be really clear about what ones you're emphasizing and why, and just to make sure that you never completely ignore any other important ones.
我觉得这个观点非常重要,因为我看到很多伟大的投资者最终都离婚了,或者孩子根本不和他们说话。
I think this is such an important idea because I look at so many of the great investors who've ended up divorced or with kids who don't talk to them.
前几天我和一个朋友聊天,他从事一份压力极大、节奏极快的工作。
And I don't know, was talking to a friend of mine the other day, who's in a very high powered, very intense job.
他因为不想忽视孩子,结果自己的健康彻底垮了。
And he's just let his health just fall apart because he doesn't wanna neglect his kids.
他不想忽视配偶。
He doesn't wanna neglect his spouse.
他在工作中肩负着难以置信的责任和紧迫的截止日期。
And he's got unbelievable responsibility and deadlines at work.
所以他把自己的身体搞垮了。
So he's just wrecked his body.
所以这个观点真的深深触动了我。
So yeah, this idea really resonates for me pretty deeply.
我想把话题转向另一个非常重要的工具、实践,或者更准确地说,一种心态,你称之为关键的生活技能——悲剧性乐观的心态。
I wanted to move us to another really important tool or practice, or in this case, a mindset, which you describe as a crucial life skill, which is the mindset of tragic optimism.
你能谈谈这个源自维克多·弗兰克尔的想法吗?他那篇著名的文章《悲剧性乐观的案例》,我认为这与你看待生活和宇宙的方式非常独特地契合。
Can you talk about this idea that originally comes from Viktor Frankl and this famous essay of his, The Case for Tragic optimism, because I think it's very distinctive also to your way of viewing life and the universe.
我很高兴你问到了这个问题。
I'm so glad you asked.
弗兰克尔最著名的作品是《活出生命的意义》,他在集中营里时,大部分内容都是在脑海中构思出来的。
Frankl is most known for his book, Man's Search for Meaning, which he wrote most of it, he composed in in his mind while he was in a concentration camp during the Holocaust.
然后他幸存了下来。
And then he survives the Holocaust.
他的许多家人和朋友都被纳粹杀害,而他活下来后,出版了这部名为《活出生命的意义》的作品。
So many of his family members and friends are murdered by the Nazis, and he comes out and he publishes this work called Man's Search for Meaning.
其中前半部分是他的回忆录,或者说接近回忆录,而后半部分他发展出了存在主义心理治疗。
The first half of which is his memoir, I'd say, or close to memoir, and then the second half, he really develops what becomes existential psychotherapy.
这是一部开创性著作,任何大学心理学专业的学生都读过这本书。
So it's this groundbreaking work, and any psychology major in in university has read this book.
但后来他又发表了一篇不太为人所知的论文,名为《悲剧性乐观主义的主张》。
But then he puts out this much lesser known essay later on called the case for tragic optimism.
在这篇文章中,弗兰克尔认为,作为人类,就意味着过着一种充满悲剧的生活。
And in it, Frankl argues that to be a human is to live a very tragic life.
他说,这是无法回避的。
And he says that there's no way around this.
这是不可避免的。
It's inevitable.
即使是最伟大的人生,也包含着悲剧。
Even the greatest human life has tragedy.
他定义了每个人都会面临的三种悲剧。
And he defines these three tragedies that everyone faces.
第一种是身体上的痛苦,因为我们是由血肉和骨骼构成的。
The first is physical pain because we're made of flesh and bone.
没有人能活着离开这个世界而不经历身体上的痛苦。
Nobody gets out of life without experiencing physical pain.
第二种是心碎与失望,这是因为我们大脑中发达的前额叶皮层让我们能够制定出种种美好的计划。
The second is heartbreak and disappointment, and that is because we have these big prefrontal cortices in our brains that allow us to make all these wonderful plans.
但有时这些计划无法实现,于是我们感到沮丧。
And sometimes the plans don't work out, and we're frustrated.
第三种悲剧是,据我们所知,我们是唯一一种深刻意识到自身死亡的物种——我们知道我们终将死去,我们所爱的人也终将死去。
And then the third tragedy is that as far as we know, we're the only species that's keenly aware of our own mortality so that we are going to die and and everyone we love is gonna die.
弗兰克尔说,我们没有必要掩耳盗铃或否认这些事实。
And Frankl says there's no reason to bury our head in the sand or to deny these.
我们必须接受,这些正是身为人类所固有的悲剧。
We have to accept that these are the tragedies inherent to being a human being.
然而,一个成熟成年人的使命,正是理解这些悲剧,并保持乐观与希望——不是无视这些悲剧,而是几乎因为它们而更加坚定。
And yet and yet, the work of a mature adult is to understand these tragedies and to maintain optimism and hope, not in spite of those tragedies, but almost because of them.
因为我们知道人生注定充满悲剧,所以我们有责任对自己保持乐观与希望,并找到快乐。
Because we know that life is gonna be full of tragedy, we have a responsibility to ourselves to maintain optimism and hope and to find joy too.
而且这并不非此即彼。
And it doesn't have to be this or that.
不必非得快乐或悲伤、悲剧或乐观。
Doesn't have to be happy or sad, tragedy or optimism.
它可以是悲剧性的乐观。
It can be tragic optimism.
我们可以在接受自己和世界中的苦难的同时,依然为自己和世界保持希望。
We can accept the suffering in ourselves and in the world while at the same time maintaining hope for ourselves and hope for the world.
我只是觉得,尽管弗兰克尔早在20世纪70年代就提出了这一观点,但如今它却比以往任何时候都更具预见性和现实意义。
And I just think that though Frankl first wrote about this in the nineteen seventies, it could not be more prescient and more timely now.
我经常看到这种情况。
I see it all the time.
你只要登录互联网的任何一部分,不久就会遇到这两种极端。
You log on to any part of the Internet, and it's not long before you have these two extremes.
我将其中一个极端称为有毒的积极乐观或波莉安娜极端,认为一切都很好。
One extreme I'm gonna call the toxic positivity or the Pollyanna extreme, which is everything's great.
别打扰我。
Don't bother me.
你知道,我已经想明白了。
You know, I figured it out.
我不想听你的烦恼。
I don't wanna hear about your problems.
生活很好。
Life is good.
你凭什么抱怨?
Why are you possibly complaining?
从来没有比现在更好的时代做一个人。
There's never been a better time to be a human.
而另一个极端是我所谓的虚无主义或绝望极端,认为一切都破败不堪,社会正在瓦解,所有这些制度和结构都如此落后,我这样一个渺小的个体又能做什么?
And the other extreme is what I'm gonna call the nihilism or despair extreme, which says that everything is broken, society's unraveling, all these systems and structures are so backwards that what can me little individual do?
然后你就陷入绝望和虚无主义。
And then you just fall into despair and nihilism.
表面上看,这两种态度是完全对立的。
On its face, these are polar opposites.
但仔细想想,它们实际上有一个共同点,那就是在某种程度上,它们都很容易成为你的思维模式,因为它们让你免于采取任何行动的责任。
But when you think about it, they actually have one thing in common, which is, in a way, they're kind of easy to adopt as mindsets because they absolve you of needing to do anything.
所以,如果一切总是很好,你也不想听任何世界上的问题,那么你就没什么需要去努力的了。
So if everything is great always and you don't wanna hear about any of the world's problems, well, then there's nothing to work on.
没什么需要改善的。
There's nothing to make better.
如果一切都很糟糕、很破碎、结构上已经彻底崩坏,你做的任何事都毫无意义,那你还为什么要行动呢?
If everything is so terrible and so broken and so structurally broken that anything you do is pointless, well, then why would you act?
所以,无论是有毒的积极心态,还是虚无主义或绝望,它们都让你免除了采取行动的责任。
So both toxic positivity and nihilism or despair, they absolve you of any responsibility to take action.
而弗兰克尔会说,我也认为,我们的责任恰恰是不要陷入这些极端之中,尽管这些极端极具诱惑力,我们要坚守中间立场,真正拥抱悲剧性乐观,认识到这个世界确实存在大量问题,需要大量改进,也确实有很多事情让人感到无比沉重。
And what Frankl would say and what I argue is that it is our job, and they're very seductive, these extremes, but it is our job not to fall into one of those extremes and to hold our ground in the middle and really embrace tragic optimism to realize that there is a lot that's broken about the world, and there is a lot that needs improvement, and there is a lot that feels so overwhelming.
如果我们能保持希望,我们就确实拥有一定的能动性,让自己的生活变得更好,也让世界变得更好。
And if we can maintain hope, we do have some agency to make our lives better and to make the world better.
因此,你常常会看到极端的观点。
And so often you see extremes.
你知道,靠自己的努力爬起来。
You know, pull yourself up by the bootstraps.
一切都归于个人责任, versus 一切取决于你出生在哪个邮政编码地区。
It's all personal responsibility versus everything structural, and all that matters is what ZIP code you're born into.
任何一个理性的人都会告诉你,这两者都很重要。
And any reasonable person will tell you it's both of those things matter.
个人责任和行为非常重要,而你出生在哪个邮政编码地区也同样重要。
Both accountability and personal responsibility and individual behavior is very important, and what ZIP code you're born into is very important.
我只是觉得,尤其是在互联网上,缺乏这种细微差别,极端化现象非常严重,但这种趋势已经渗透到西方世界的大部分讨论中,让人感觉你必须在这些极端之间二选一,而现实其实是混乱的,存在于两者之间。
And I just think that there's such a lack of nuance and extreme in especially on the Internet, but really it's pervaded so much of the discourse in the Western world where it feels like you have to choose into these extremes when reality is messy and somewhere in the middle.
我认为,悲剧性乐观是一个绝佳的概念,它让我们拥抱这种混乱,做一个现实主义者,却不陷入绝望。
And I think tragic optimism is just such a wonderful concept for embracing that messiness and for being a realist without falling into despair.
你在《变革的主人》中引用了一句很美的话,这句话来自布鲁斯·斯普林斯廷71岁时接受《大西洋》杂志的采访,他说,智慧的核心在于学会接受世界本来的样子,同时不放弃改变世界的信念。
There's a beautiful line that you quote in The Master of Change that's from an interview that Bruce Springsteen did when he was 71 with The Atlantic, where he talked about the heart of wisdom amounting to learning, quote, to accept the world on its terms without giving up the belief that you can change the world.
这是一种成功的成年,是你思维和灵魂成熟的过程,让你在认清生命的局限的同时,依然不放弃它的可能性。
That's a successful adulthood, the maturation of your thought process and very soul to the point where you understand the limits of life without giving up on its possibilities.
这是一个极好的洞见。
It's a wonderful insight.
我记得多年前,当我住在伦敦时,曾去温布利球场观看斯普林斯廷的演唱会。
I remember actually years ago when I was living in London going to see Springsteen in a concert, Wembley Stadium.
他出场了那么多次,我的意思是,返场了那么多轮。
He came on so many times, I mean, for so many encores.
我想那场演出持续了将近四个小时。
I think it must have lasted the best part of four hours.
对我来说,最精彩的时刻是,我想那是‘推土机’巡演期间。
And the highlight for me was, I guess it was the wrecking ball tour.
有一个瞬间,你看到这位年迈的歌手,身体已经衰弱,嗓音也沙哑,却依然在唱:‘给我你最棒的一击。’
And there was this moment where you see this aging guy with this broken body and this raspy voice basically singing, give me your best shot.
你只是感受到一种顽强的气质,这个男人接受了自己童年悲惨、身体衰败、嗓音受损、饱受痛苦的事实。
You just had this defiant sense of this guy who accepted the fact that he had a lousy childhood, that his body was breaking down, that his voice was breaking down, that he was in pain.
但令人振奋的是,尽管痛苦,他依然不断重返舞台。
But there was something kind of triumphant and exultant about the fact that he just kept coming back amid the pain.
所以我认为,他实际上体现了悲剧性乐观的精神。
So I think he kind of embodies that spirit actually of tragic optimism.
是的,完全正确。
Oh, 100%.
用简单的话来说,如果你自己变得支离破碎,就无法修复一个破碎的世界。
Another way to think about it in simple terms is, like, you can't fix a broken world if you become a broken person.
在我看来,向一个破碎的世界屈服,一方面没什么帮助,另一方面也谈不上美好的人生。
And to resign yourself to a broken world, in my opinion, is just, one, it's not very helpful, and two, it doesn't make for a great existence.
如果你任由这种心态恶化,它会很快演变成抑郁。
If And you let that spiral, it can very quickly become depression.
所以我认为,悲剧性乐观是一种在两种极端之间生活的态度——接受现实,但不陷入崩溃。
So I think that tragic optimism is, again, it's a way to live in between these extremes and to accept reality without spiraling.
关于布鲁斯·斯普林斯汀的另一件有趣的事是,现在有一位新的创作型歌手,已经逐渐成为流行明星。
Another thing on Bruce Springsteen that that's really interesting is so there's a new singer songwriter and really kinda has become a pop star.
他叫扎克·布莱恩特。
His name is Zach Bryant.
我觉得他大概只有25岁,可能26岁左右。
I I think he's only 25, maybe 26 years old.
我觉得他的音乐很有吸引力,但并不出色。
And I think his music's very catchy, but it's not great.
我的意思是,我不确定。
Like, I don't know.
也许是我有点跟不上时代了。
And maybe I'm dating myself.
他就是那种没经历过多少人生起伏的人,诸如此类吧。
He's just kinda like he hasn't lived that much, whatever.
但他却能售罄体育馆,Spotify上的下载量高达数百万。
But he's selling out arenas, millions of downloads on Spotify.
很容易看到像布鲁斯·斯普林斯廷这样的人会变得愤世嫉俗,说我不太了解这个家伙。
And it'd be very easy to see someone like Bruce Springsteen be a curmudgeon and kinda say, I don't know about this guy.
但布鲁斯·斯普林斯廷却和他合作了。
But Bruce Springsteen just did a collaboration with him.
斯普林斯廷那时多大年纪?
It aged how old Springsteen?
我73岁,或者74岁左右。
I was 73, 74 maybe.
我觉得,这也体现了一种悲天悯人的乐观态度——你本可以坐在那里抱怨音乐产业、抱怨一切都转向了流媒体、抱怨你必须长得好看、要在TikTok上表现优异才能走红。
And I think, like, that also embodies this kind of tragic optimism where you could sit there and complain about how the music industry, how everything's gone to streaming, and how you have to look a certain way and be good on TikTok to be popular.
对吧?
Right?
扎克·布莱恩最初是通过发布自己弹奏的一分钟短视频起步的。
Zach Bryan got started by posting all these one minute videos of him playing.
要变得愤世嫉俗、完全排斥这种做法实在太容易了,但斯普林斯廷却选择和他合作。
And it'd be so easy to fall into just, like, being grumpy and shunning that, but instead, Springsteen goes and does a collab with him.
我觉得,这真的太棒了。
And I think, like, that's really cool.
我比74岁年轻多了,我就是以他为榜样。
And and I'm much younger than 74, and and I I look to that.
我希望当我74岁的时候,也能拥有像布鲁斯·斯普林斯廷那样开放的心胸和思维。
And I hope that when I'm 74, I have that kind of open heart and open mind that Bruce Springsteen has.
比尔·沃尔顿最近去世了。
Bill Walton recently passed away.
他真是践行悲剧性乐观主义的典范。
What an example of someone that lived with tragic optimism.
这些榜样就在我们身边,他们往往是我们钦佩的人,但要在生活中始终保持这样的态度却非常困难。
So these examples are out there, and they tend to be people that we all admire, yet it's very hard to go through life with that sort of attitude.
你提到的另一个非常重要的做法,我想稍微展开说一下,就是为什么在混乱时期依靠日常惯例和仪式能带来稳定感。
Another practice that you talk about that's very important that I wanna break down a little bit is you talk about why it's so helpful to lean on routines and rituals to provide stability during times of disorder.
你能谈谈在面对混乱时,惯例的重要性吗?
Can you talk a little bit about the importance of routines when we're dealing with chaos?
因为我在书中写过,有一章是关于高效能习惯的。
Because I write in my book, there's a chapter on habits of high performance.
最成功的投资者有一个非常显著的特点,那就是他们对自己的习惯和日常安排极为执着。
One of the things that's very distinctive about the most successful investors is they're obsessed with their habits, their routines.
书中有一个地方,我引用了我的朋友肯·舒本斯坦,他是一位非常成功的投资者,后来成为了一名神经学家。
There's a point in the book where I quote a friend of mine, Ken Schubenstein, who was a very successful investor who then became a neurologist.
他谈到,在混乱时期,他始终回归的四个习惯——运动、睡眠、健康饮食和冥想。
And he talks about how basically the four habits he keeps coming back to in times of chaos, basically exercise, sleep, good nutrition, and meditation.
因为这些习惯我们都知道对认知健康和认知功能非常有益。
Because it's like those are the four that we know are great for cognitive health and cognitive function.
你对 routines 和 rituals 这个领域思考得非常深入。
You've thought very deeply about this whole area of routines and rituals.
请为我们详细讲讲,我们该如何看待日常习惯?应该开始采纳哪些最佳习惯?同时,你也对当前从胡伯曼到彼得·阿蒂亚等人推崇的优化运动持相当轻视的态度,谈谈你的理念。
Talk us through this, how we should think about routines, what are the best routines that we should start to adopt, and also your philosophy of being quite dismissive of the movement towards optimization, which we're seeing with everyone from Huberman to Peter Attia.
你可能会太客气而不点名,那我就替你点名了。
And you're gonna be too polite to name names, so I'm naming them for you.
好的。
Alright.
这是一个复杂而很好的问题。
This is a loaded question and a good question.
首先,我很欣赏你朋友提出的那些类别。
So first off, I love your friends for categories.
我唯一想补充的是,我相信他或她也会同意我的观点,那就是社群的重要性。
The only one that I would consider adding, and and my guess is he or she would agree with me, is the importance of community.
是的。
Yeah.
把与你重要的人相聚,无论是家人、同事还是朋友,作为你日常安排的基石。
In making gathering with people that matter to you, whether that's your family, colleagues, friends, a cornerstone of your routines.
好的。
Alright.
那么,首先,为什么日常安排如此重要?
So square one, why are routines important?
稍微讲点神经科学。
Little bit of neuroscience.
我们的大脑具有预测性。
Our brains are predictive.
它们总是在试图预测接下来会发生什么,而且这有充分的理由。
They are always trying to predict what's gonna happen next, and for very good reason.
世界上有太多刺激信息。
There's so much stimulus in the world.
如果我们的大脑不能提前想一步或两步,
Our brains couldn't think a step or two ahead.
我们就根本无法度过一天。
We would never make our way through the day.
我的意思是,想象一下我们正在交谈,我预测你会倾听然后回应。
I mean, imagine if we're having this conversation and I'm predicting that you're gonna listen and then respond.
但如果我的大脑无法做到这一点,不确定你是否会挂断电话,不确定会不会有小行星撞穿窗户,不确定你是否会保存这次采访,那这一切根本不可能实现。
But if my brain couldn't do that and my brain wasn't sure if you were gonna hang up the call, if there was gonna be an asteroid through the window, if you were gonna save it, the interview is going tear like, it would never work.
所以即使我们没有意识到,我们的大脑也在预测接下来会发生什么。
So even when we don't realize it, our brains are making predictions about what's gonna happen next.
而在变化、不确定性和混乱时期,预测接下来会发生什么变得非常困难。
And in times of change, in uncertainty, in chaos, it becomes very hard to predict what's gonna happen next.
习惯的作用在于,它让我们能够划定生活中的一两个或三个领域——无论你的习惯包含多少组成部分——在这些领域里我们可以做出预测。
What a routine allows us to do is allows us to carve out this one or two or three areas of our life, however many components we have of our routine, where we can make a prediction.
我每天早上都会去跑步。
I'm gonna go for a run-in the morning.
我每天下午两点都会泡一杯咖啡。
I'm gonna make my afternoon coffee at two.
我每天晚上都会坐下来祈祷、冥想、阅读或写日记。
I'm gonna sit down and pray or meditate or read or journal in the evening.
这些事情非常有可能实现,而当我们的大脑做出预测并看到它成真时,会在神经化学层面感到极大的满足。
That has a very high likelihood of coming true, And that is so satisfying for our brain at a neurochemical level to make a prediction and to have it come true.
这是我们生活中少数能够掌控的部分。
It's a part of our life that we have some control over.
所以,这就是习惯最重要的价值。
So that is the number one important value of a routine.
这意味着,习惯的具体内容并不重要,重要的是我们拥有它们。
Now what that means is what the routines are don't matter as much as the fact that we have them.
对吧?
Right?
对你来说,可能是听AC/DC的音乐。
For you, it might be listening to ACDC.
对我而言,可能是冥想佛陀教义的核心。
For me, it might be meditating to the heart of the Buddha's teaching.
这并不重要。
Doesn't matter.
只要你有这个行为,并且在固定的时间做,让你的大脑将它与生活中的掌控感和可预测性联系起来,那就很好。
As long as you have that thing and you do it at the same time and your brain starts to associate that thing with a sense of control and predictability in your life, then it's good.
它有效。
It works.
有一些注意事项,我会非常贴近你那位成为神经学家的朋友所说的话。
There are a few caveats, and I'm gonna go very closely to what your friend that became the neurologist said.
根据数十年的科学研究,我们确实知道,有一些相对普遍的要素,可以成为对几乎所有尝试或应用它们的人都有帮助的日常习惯。
We do know based on decades of science that there are a few somewhat universal elements that can become routines that are helpful for just about everybody that tries or applies them.
首先也是最重要的是锻炼。
And first and foremost, exercise.
身体活动是改善身体健康、心理健康和认知健康最首要的可改变行为。
Physical activity is the number one modifiable behavior for both physical health, mental health, and cognitive health.
第二是社交,某种形式的社会生活,一种仪式化的社交聚会。
Number two would be community, some sort of social life, the social gathering that's ritualized.
这可以是家庭晚餐。
Again, that can be a family dinner.
也可以是去教堂或犹太会堂。
That can be going to church or synagogue.
或者每月和朋友聚在一起打扑克。
That can be getting together with friends to play poker once a month.
重要的是,无论是什么活动,只要是你能期待的、定期发生的、涉及他人的事情就行。
Doesn't matter what it is, but something that you can look forward to that happens on a regular interval that involves other people.
我们人类是在部落中进化的。
Our species evolved in tribes.
我们是一种非常社交的物种。
We're a very social species.
正是这一点让我们能够抵御狮子等捕食者,因为一群人类的智慧胜过一只狮子、一群狮子,或者一群狼,我该说是一群狮子。
That's what allowed us to survive predators like lions is that a bunch of humans are smarter than one lion or a tribe of lions or a pack of lions, I should say.
因此,在面对挑战时,向社群靠拢深深植根于我们的本能之中。
So it's very much in our hardwiring during times of challenge to gravitate towards community.
睡眠非常重要。
Sleep is really important.
然而,关于睡眠,市面上充斥着大量无稽之谈。
However, there's a lot of nonsense out there about sleep.
如果你服用这些补充剂,追踪你的心率变异性,网上有个叫布莱恩·约翰逊的人,甚至在追踪自己睡眠时勃起的强度,以此作为健康指标。
So if you take these supplements, if you track your heart rate variability, there's some guy out there that's now tracking the strength of his erections during his sleep is a sign of his His name is Brian Johnson.
我很乐意提到他的名字,因为我觉得他简直疯了。
I'm happy naming his name because I think he's out of, like, insane.
但很多人喜欢他,你也可以不同意。
But a lot of people like him, and you can disagree.
然而,研究表明,我们越担心睡眠,就越难入睡。
However, the research shows that the more that we worry about sleep, the harder it is to sleep.
所以,如果你把睡眠变成一件需要追求卓越的事情,那么本应是你一天中最放松、最具恢复性的部分——睡眠,现在却变成了一项需要赢取的目标或一个需要追逐的指标。
So if you turn sleep into something to excel at, then what is supposed to be the most restful, restorative part of your day sleeping now becomes something to win at or a metric to chase.
当然,这样会更难入睡。
Well, of course, it's gonna be harder to sleep.
所以我认为,睡眠是日常规律体力活动的副产品,是确保你不感到孤独的结果,因为我们知道,感到孤立和孤独的人睡眠质量很差。
So I think that sleep is the byproduct of a regular physical activity throughout your day, of making sure that you're not lonely because we know that people who feel isolated and lonely, they don't sleep well.
此外,我认为营养也非常重要。
And then I would add nutrition is really important.
但市面上有各种各样的饮食法,其实关键只是避免摄入高度加工的食物。
But there, there's all these different diets, and it's really just about avoiding highly processed foods.
我想再回过头来谈一下,因为我知道你们的观众知识水平很高。
I I wanna loop back because I know you have a very heavy intellectual audience.
人们可能会说,布拉德到底在讲什么?
People might say, like, what's Brad talking about?
社交孤立和睡眠。
Social isolation and sleep.
对吧?
Right?
因为我并没有说,你需要补充镁来改善睡眠。
Because I didn't say, like, you need to take your magnesium to sleep better.
我说的是,如果你感到孤独,这可能是导致睡眠不佳的原因。
I said, if you're feeling lonely, that could be driving poor sleep.
这其中的原因非常有趣,因为我们的祖先曾生活在部落中。
And the reason for this is fascinating because, again, we evolved in tribes.
在人类早期历史中,当我们从外形更接近大猩猩或猿类的毛茸茸灵长类动物,逐渐演变成如今我们所认知的人类时,如果你独自一人,就永远无法安心入睡,因为你可能被山狮或其他捕食者袭击。
So early early on in our species history, right when we're turning from these hairy primates that look closer to a gorilla or an ape to what we now view as a human, if you are alone, you can never fall asleep because you could be picked off by a mountain lion or by a predator.
对吧?
Right?
literally,如果你脱离了部落,在草原上睡着了,你就会死。
Literally, if you lost the tribe and fell asleep on the savannah, you're dead.
你根本活不到足以传递基因的年龄。
You wouldn't survive long enough to pass on your DNA.
但如果你身处部落中,人多势众,你就能安心休息和睡觉,因为你知道自己并不孤单和孤立。
But if you were in a tribe and you had strength in numbers, well, then you could rest and you could sleep because you knew that you weren't alone and isolated.
这种机制一直延续到了今天。
And that still carries forth to today.
社会孤立对健康造成如此严重危害的首要原因,是它会升高血压并导致睡眠质量下降。
The number one reason that social isolation is so detrimental to our health is because it raises our blood pressure and causes poor sleep.
这难道不令人着迷吗?
Isn't that fascinating?
但这完全说得通。
But it makes total sense.
因为如果你独自一人,就会感到焦虑,总是处于警觉状态。
Because if you're alone, you're anxious, and you always are on guard.
你总是提防着,所以睡不好。
You're always on the lookout so you don't sleep well.
所以对我来说,最重要的两点是运动和社群,然后我会把营养放在第三位。
So for me, the big two are movement and community, and then I would put nutrition.
而且,是的,我认为围绕日常习惯的其他很多东西都非常个性化。
And, yeah, I think a lot of the other stuff around routine is very highly individualized.
我认为,任何告诉你有一个特定的补品、一个特定的呼吸练习,或一种特定的方法能帮助你建立提升表现的日常习惯的人,我几乎敢拿全部家当打赌,他们就是在推销那个东西。
And I think anyone that tells you that there's this one supplement or this one breathing exercise or this one way to do something to have a routine that helps performance, I'd almost bet my bottom dollar that they're selling that one thing.
让我们短暂休息一下,听听今天赞助商的信息。
Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors.
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并非所有申请人都能通过审核。
Not all applicants will qualify.
Plus500,交易更胜一筹。
Plus 500, it's trading with a plus.
亿万富翁投资者通常不会把资金存放在高收益储蓄账户中。
Bill Billion dollar investors don't typically park their cash in high yield savings accounts.
相反,他们常常采用机构投资者常用的被动收入策略之一——私人信贷。
Instead, they often use one of the premier passive income strategies for institutional investors, private credit.
如今,得益于Fundrise收入基金,这一被动收入策略已向所有规模的投资者开放,该基金已投入超过6亿美元,分配收益率为7.97%。
Now the same passive income strategy is available to investors of all sizes, thanks to the Fundrise Income Fund, which has more than $600,000,000 invested and a 7.97% distribution rate.
随着传统储蓄利率下降,私人信贷在近几年成长为万亿美元级别的资产类别也就不足为奇了。
With traditional savings yields falling, it's no wonder private credit has grown to be a trillion dollar asset class in the last few years.
立即访问 fundrise.com/wsb,只需几分钟即可投资Fundrise收入基金。
Visit fundrise.com/wsb to invest in the Fundrise Income Fund in just minutes.
该基金2025年的总回报率为8%,自成立以来的平均年总回报率为7.8%。
The fund's total return in 2025 was 8% and the average annual total return since inception is 7.8%.
过往表现并不能保证未来结果,当前分配率为2025年1月20日12:30的数据。
Past performance does not guarantee future results, current distribution rate as of twelvethirty onetwenty twenty five.
投资前请仔细阅读投资材料,包括投资目标、风险、费用和开支。
Carefully consider the investment material before investing, including objectives, risks, charges, and expenses.
更多信息可参阅Fundrise Income Fund的招募说明书,网址为fundrise.com/income。
This and other information can be found in the income funds prospectus at fundrise.com/income.
这是一则付费广告。
This is a paid advertisement.
好的。
Alright.
我们回到节目。
Back to the show.
我在书中写过关于简约的内容,真正的简约其实是一种高深的智慧——当你对一个主题理解得足够深刻时,就能将其简化并提炼出本质。
I wrote a length in my book about simplicity and the simplicity, really the sophistication that goes when you're basically so you understand a topic so deeply that you can simplify and distill it down to its essence.
我之前曾作为一名代笔作家和编辑,参与过一本关于长寿等相关主题的书籍,那本书几年前曾是畅销榜第一名。
I actually, I had done a lot of work as a ghostwriter and editor on a book about longevity and the like, which had been a number one bestseller a few years ago.
我不是什么健康典范,但我为此做了大量报道。
Not that I'm a paragon of good health or anything, but I've done a lot of reporting on this.
其中让我深深共鸣的一点,我在书的脚注中引用过,是生活方式医学之父迪恩·奥尼什跟我谈的,他通过四十年的研究,总结出所有能逆转心脏病、糖尿病等疾病的有效方法。
And one of the things that really deeply resonated for me that I quoted in a footnote of my book was something where Dean Ornish, the father of lifestyle medicine, was talking to me about what he'd figured out from forty years of research into everything that worked to reverse heart disease and diabetes and all of these things.
他说,其实我可以用八个字概括。
And he said, Really, I can sum it up in eight words.
他说:吃得好,多运动,少压力,多爱。
He said, Eat well, move more, stress less, love more.
而且真的如果
And really if
你——我太喜欢这句话了。
you- I love that.
是的,这句话太棒了。
Yeah, it's an amazing sentence.
如果你深入剖析每一点,'吃得好'其实更多是指多吃绿色食物、多吃蔬菜之类的。
If you unpack each of those things, really it's eat well is more about having more green stuff, more vegetables and the like.
多运动,正如你在很多文章中提到的,每天只要坚持运动三十到四十五分钟,方式并不重要。
Move more, as you say, in a lot of your writing, you talk about just moving thirty to forty five minutes a day in any way that you'll do consistently doesn't really matter that much.
减少压力,无论是呼吸技巧还是冥想;以及多爱,也就是社群的重要性。
Stress less, so anything from breathing techniques to meditation, and love more, which is the importance of community.
我觉得这真是一个绝佳的例子,将如此复杂的话题简化为本质且真实的要点。
And so I just thought that was a beautiful example of the reduction of this incredibly complex subject to something that was essential and true.
你在网站、博客和播客中写过、谈论过很多关于人们为了让我们相信复杂性而做的荒谬事情。
You've written a lot on your website and on your blog and talked about on your podcast about the bizarre things that people do to sell us on great complexity.
这很复杂,因为我们的受众都是高绩效者。
It's complicated because our audience, these are high performers.
我们希望在最高水平上表现。
We want to perform at the top level.
但你指出,像乔科·威尔宁和休伯曼这样的人,建议我们通过反复进行热桑拿、冷浴、再热桑拿、再冷浴来进行一次彻底的重置。
But you point out that all of these things like Jocko Willink and Huberman sort of saying we should do this factory reset by having hot saunas and then cold, and then hot saunas again and cold and doing it again and again.
或者休伯曼谈论获取大量晨光、推销AG1、测量我们的最大摄氧量,就像彼得·阿蒂亚会说的那样,或者佩戴Oura戒指、WHOOP手环、连续血糖监测仪、防蓝光眼镜等等。
Or Huberman talking about getting lots of morning sunlight or selling AG1 and measuring our VO2 max, as Peter Attia would talk about, or wearing the Oura Ring or the WHOOP strap or a continuous glucose monitor or light blocking glasses or whatever.
这很有趣,而且也很容易销售。
It's interesting and it's saleable.
我认为,如果你是一个顶尖的高绩效者,也许这些方法中有一些是有价值的。
And I think if you're an incredible top performer, maybe some of this stuff is valuable.
但我认为这让我有点不确定。
But I think it's so I don't know.
我在写那本书的调研期间买了很多这些东西,但现在一样都不用了。
I bought a lot of these things while I was reporting that book, and I don't use any of them anymore.
我认为我唯一还在用的东西,是一个非常奇怪的、绑在手臂上的小装置。
The only thing I think I continued to use was this really weird gadget that you strap onto your arm.
那东西叫什么来着?
What was it called?
它叫Apollo Neuro,会振动。
It's called an Apollo Neuro that vibrates.
它是由匹兹堡大学开发的,最初是为创伤后应激障碍患者设计的。
And it was developed, I think, at the University of Pittsburgh for people with post traumatic stress disorder.
不知为何,我觉得它特别令人放松。
And for some reason I find it unbelievably soothing.
当它失踪了好几个月,或者那段时间无法使用时,我记得重新找到它、戴上它时,几乎要哭出来。
And when I lost it for several months or it didn't work for several months, I remember finding it again and putting it on and just, I almost burst out crying.
能重新戴上它,我高兴极了。
Was so happy that I had it back on.
就像重新找到了一位老朋友。
Was like finding an old friend again.
所以,我曾经用过的那些东西,现在冰箱里堆着一大堆AG1,却从未动过。
So if all of those things that I used I have masses of AG1 sitting in my fridge untouched.
我不确定。
I don't know.
我的光环戒指也放在床边,从未使用。
My aura ring sitting beside the bed unused.
我并不是想冒犯任何人,但我认为这触及了一个非常重要的问题。
And I I don't mean to insult anyone, but I think this gets at something really important.
你对刚才我说的话有什么想法吗?
Do you have any thoughts about what I just said?
有。
I do.
这时间可真巧。
So it's funny timing.
我刚刚在《纽约时报》周日版上发表了一篇关于这个话题的评论文章。
I just had an op ed published in the New York Times, the Sunday Times on this very topic.
我打算引用其中一段。
And I'm gonna quote from it.
我说,在过去十年里,我研究了卓越,并在过程中与世界上一些最顶尖的运动员合作过。
I say that over the last decade, I've studied excellence, and I've worked with some of the world's best performers in the process.
这确实是事实。
And this is true.
我曾与铁人三项世界冠军、NBA王朝球队合作,真正接触过最顶尖的顶尖人才。
I've worked with Ironman world champion, NBA dynasty teams, really the best of the best when it comes to performance.
真正让职业运动员或奥运选手卓越的原因,并不是早上五点起床去冷水浴、凝视太阳。
And what makes a professional athlete or an Olympian great, it's not waking up at 5AM to cold plunge and gaze at the sun.
我的意思是,他们没人这么做。
I mean, none of them do it.
我从未与任何顶尖运动员合作过,他们还会担心早晨在低角度阳光下进行冷水浴。
I've never worked with an elite performer that's worried about a morning cold plunge in low angle sunlight.
一个都没有。
Not one.
但他们共同的特点是,对自身技艺的基本功有着不懈的专注,数年如一日地以严苛的稳定性执行这些基本功,培养正确的思维模式,并围绕自己聚集合适的人。
But what they all have in common is a relentless focus on the fundamentals of their craft, executing those fundamentals with ruthless consistency for years, adopting the right mindsets, and surrounding themselves with the right people.
当然,拥有良好的基因也非常重要。
And then having the right genetics is also really important.
就这么简单。
And that's it.
所以我认为,当你观察最顶尖的那批人时,没有人会去折腾这些荒唐的健康把戏,因为他们根本没有时间做这些。
So I think that actually when you look at the tippy top, no one is engaging in any of these kind of cockamamie health things because they don't have the time to do it.
他们专注于掌握基本功。
They're focused on nailing the fundamentals.
我想,我和摩根·豪塞尔讨论过这个问题,我相信你的观众都知道他,他是《金钱心理学》的作者,情况一直如此。
And I think what happens is I had a conversation about this with Morgan Housel, who I'm sure your audience knows of psychology of money and same as ever.
然后我和我表弟聊了聊,我和他关系非常亲密,他经营着一家非常成功的财务咨询公司。
And then I talked to my cousin who I'm very close with, who I mentioned runs a very successful financial advisory practice.
我认为投资者面临的陷阱是,你没有时间坐下来评估这些说法,你希望走在前沿,成为顶尖表现者。
And I think that the trap that investors face is you don't have time to sit around and evaluate these claims, and you wanna be on the cutting edge, and you wanna be a peak performer.
但我对他们的建议是,这和市场上流传的那些荒谬投资建议没什么不同。
But what I say to them is it's no different than all the cockamamie investment advice that goes around.
这类东西总是循环出现的。
And this stuff comes in cycles.
而现在,我们正处于健康与长寿的潮流中。
And right now, we're in a health and longevity cycle.
十五年后,我们可能又回到了加密货币的庞氏骗局。
Fifteen years from now, we might be back in a cryptocurrency Ponzi scheme.
这里有10种方法能在十天内击败市场,只要你购买我的在线课程。
Here's 10 ways to beat the market in ten days if you buy my online course schedule.
因为你有专业领域知识,你可以看看这些说法,然后说:不行。
And because you have domain expertise, you can look at that and you can say, no.
不行。
No.
不行。
No.
成为优秀投资者并积累财富的方法是,我不知道,因为我不是个优秀的投资者。
The way to become a great investor and to amass wealth is, I don't know, because I'm not a great investor.
但大概率存在一些相当枯燥的基本原则,你必须长期坚持它们。
But presumably, there's a set of fundamental principles that are rather boring, and you have to adhere to them for a very long time.
是的。
Yeah.
例如,评估一家企业的价值,然后以远低于其价值的价格买入。
For example, value a business and buy it for much less than it's worth.
你知道吗,乔·格林布拉特曾对我说,这就是所有投资的精髓。
You know, Joe Greenblatt has said to me that's the the essence of all investment.
每天运动,多去爱,避免食用超加工食品。
Move your body every day, love more, and avoid ultra processed foods.
就这么简单。
That's it.
但人们不想听这些,因为这看起来太简单了。
But people don't wanna hear that because it seems too simple.
我认为在健康和长寿这个领域,也需要注意一点,我从未亲自见过安德鲁·休伯曼。
And I think that it's important to also note in this health and longevity space and I've never met Andrew Huberman in person.
我从未见过彼得·阿蒂亚,所以我无法评判他们。
I've never met Peter Attia, so I can't judge them.
他们俩都非常出色。
And and they're both brilliant.
我并不是想贬低他们。
I don't mean to knock them.
我的意思是,
I mean,
他们很有天赋,是非常出色的沟通者,其中确实包含一些真理。
they're gifted They're very gifted communicators, and there is a kernel of truth to all of that.
比如,每天早起到户外接触自然光,无疑对人的昼夜节律有帮助。
Like, getting outside early in the day and getting natural light is undoubtedly helpful for one's circadian rhythm.
没有人会否认这一点。
No one would argue that.
然而,关于早晨低角度阳光的说法——必须是特定角度,且必须在醒来后九十分钟内——这是从五项针对小鼠的研究中推断出来的。
However, the notion of low angle morning sunlight, it has to be a certain angle, and it has to be within ninety minutes of your waking up, that's extrapolated from five studies that looked at mice.
明白吗?
K?
目前没有证据表明这会产生实际影响,尤其是当你因此焦虑、比平时更早起床、牺牲睡眠或放弃锻炼时。
There's no evidence that it makes a difference, especially if you're stressing about it and you're waking up earlier than you would in in forfeiting sleep or if you're forfeiting exercise.
彼得·阿蒂亚在进行VO2最大值测试。
Peter Attia in v o two max.
最大摄氧量当然很重要。
V o two max, it's great to have a good v o two max, of course.
但如何才能提高最大摄氧量呢?
But how do you get a good v o two max?
没有特别的训练计划。
There's no special program.
你只需要多活动身体。
You just move your body more.
你去锻炼。
You exercise.
我觉得很多这些传播者所做的,就是抓住了这些听起来很科学的复杂术语,而这些术语实际上只是对应一些非常枯燥的行为。
So I think that what a lot of these communicators have done is they've latched on to these kind of complex scientific sounding terms that are proxies for very boring behaviors.
然后人们就被那些听起来很吸引人的科学概念、炫目的新设备所吸引。
And then people get very caught up in the science that sounds sexy and the bright and shiny objects and the new device.
但归根结底,为了健康,还是规律锻炼。
But at the end of the day, for health, again, it's regular exercise.
避免食用超加工食品。
Avoid ultra processed foods.
这两点的结合应该能让你的体重保持在不肥胖的水平,因为这正是我们这里讨论的重点。
The combination of those two things ought to result in a body weight that is not obese, because that's what we're talking about here.
拥有社交支持、不使用烟草产品,如果要饮酒,务必适量。
Having community, not using tobacco products, and then if you're going to drink, do so in moderation.
如果你无法适量饮酒,那就完全戒酒。
And if you can't drink in moderation, then abstaining altogether.
就这么简单。
That's it.
实际上,没有其他事情真正重要了。
Like, there's nothing else really matters.
如果你想在体能方面成为顶尖表现者,那你就得选择一项运动,并为这项运动进行专项训练。
Now if you wanna be a great performer in a physical attribute, well, then you have to pick your sport and you have to train for that sport.
这和你在任何领域培养专长或精通技能的道理是一样的。
No different than how you develop mastery or domain expertise in anything.
最后,我想回溯一下你之前提到的一点,我完全同意。
And the last thing I'll say to loop back to something you said earlier, I couldn't agree more.
我理解精通的方式是:从简单到复杂,再回到简单。
The way that I like to think about mastery is you go from simple to complex back to simple.
当你刚接触某件事时,一切都很简单。
So when you're brand new to something, everything's simple.
你怎么才能完成600磅的硬拉?
How do you deadlift 600 pounds?
首先,你把所有重量集中在杠铃上,把它从地上举起来。
Well, you take all this weight and you lift the bar up off the ground.
然后你就进入了复杂阶段。
And then you get into complexity.
有交替握法和正握法的区别。
There's switch grip versus overhand grip.
有推地和拉起的不同方式。
There's pushing into the ground versus pulling.
有西莫式和传统式之分。
There's sumo versus conventional.
你可以在训练中做停顿硬拉。
There's pause deadlifts that you can do in your training.
你需要更强的股四头肌吗?需要更强的髋屈肌吗?
Do you need bigger quads, do you need stronger hip flexors?
如此种种,没完没了。
And on and on and on.
你可以花六年时间只研究如何把杠铃从地面举到臀部。
And you can spend six years just reading about moving a bar from the ground to your hips.
六年后,你该怎么硬拉?
And then after the six years, how do you deadlift?
你就直接把杠铃提起来。
You just pick the bar up.
所以它从简单到复杂,再回到简单。
So it goes from simple to complex back to simple.
是的。
Yeah.
这个想法非常深刻。
It's very profound, this idea.
我在关于简化的那一章中写了很多相关内容,还引用了乔什·韦德金的话,他也深谙这一理念,谈到掌握非常简单的技巧——通常成就成功的关键并不是多么复杂的技术。
And I write a lot about it in that chapter on simplicity and quote Josh Wadeskin, who's also a master of this idea of taking it talks about the mastery of very simple techniques that usually it's not something very complex that accounts for success.
关键是掌握一种非常简单的技巧。
It's the mastery of a very simple technique.
另外,为了培养这种坚韧的适应力,使我们能更好地应对变化和混乱,还有一个非常重要的方面,那就是控制我们对事物的反应。
So another thing just to change subject that's very important in terms of building this kind of rugged flexibility so that we can handle change and disorder well is controlling our reaction to things.
因为正如斯多葛哲学所言,我们无法总是控制发生在自己身上的事,但我们可以控制自己的回应方式。
Because as we know from stoic philosophy, we can't control what happens to us always, but we can control how we respond.
你在《变革大师》中提到的一个非常实用的技巧,就是你所说的‘四P技巧’。
One of the things that you talk about that's a very practical technique in Master of Change is what you call the 4Ps technique.
你能解释一下,你是如何运用这个技巧来减少反应性,从而不被外界事件所左右的吗?
Can you explain how you use this technique in a way to become less reactive so that we're not controlled what happens?
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