RWH052：智者云集：雷·达利奥、比尔·米勒、克里斯·戴维斯与迈克尔·伯格

我们需要正视自己的弱点，承认它，然后才能采取行动。

We need to lean into the weakness, acknowledge it, and then we can do something about it.

下一个片段来自我去年与克里斯·戴维斯的一次精彩对话，他是一位著名投资者，他的父亲和祖父也是传奇投资者。

The next clip comes from a wonderful conversation that I had last year with Chris Davis, a renowned investor whose father and grandfather were also legendary investors.

克里斯还与沃伦·巴菲特一同担任伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司的董事会成员。

Chris also serves on the board of Berkshire Hathaway alongside Warren Buffett.

在这次对话中，克里斯和我深入探讨了他从与沃伦·巴菲特和查理·芒格的友谊中学到的东西，他们都是对他非常重要的导师。

In this conversation, Chris and I talked in some depth about what he learned from his friendship with Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger, who are both very important mentors to him.

让我们先听一下这段片段，然后我再分享一些我的想法。

Let's listen to the clip, and then I'll share a few thoughts of my own.

好的。

Alright.

大家好。

Hi, folks.

我非常高兴今天能邀请到我们的嘉宾克里斯·戴维斯。

I'm absolutely delighted to welcome today's guest who's Chris Davis.

克里斯是家历史悠久且知名的投资公司——戴维斯顾问公司的董事长，我认为这家公司成立于1969年。

And Chris is chairman of an old and renowned investment firm named Davis Advisors, which I think was founded back in 1969.

他同时也是这家规模较小、不太为人所知的公司的董事会成员，你们中有些人可能听说过，那就是伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司。

And he's also a member of the board of directors of a small obscure company that some of you may have heard of, namely Berkshire Hathaway.

很高兴见到你，克里斯。

It's lovely to see you, Chris.

非常感谢你加入我们。

Thanks so much for joining us.

哦，我非常高兴能来到这里。

Oh, I'm so glad to be here.

我一直在期待这次对话，这可不常有，因为我觉得你看待生活、宇宙和一切的方式，让我对这次交流充满期待。

I've I've been looking forward to this, which I don't say about a lot of interviews, but I I feel like the way you approach life and the universe and everything has has made me look forward to this conversation.

非常感谢你。

Thank you so much.

在忘记之前，我想聊聊我们之前提到的‘三万天’这个概念，因为这个想法太美了，两小时后我可能就忘了我们谈过这个。

And and before I forget, since we were talking about it right before we we got on, talk to me about this idea of our thirty thousand days because it's such a beautiful idea, and two hours from now, I'm likely to have forgotten that we talked about it.

所以在我们开始其他话题之前，先谈谈这个想法的意义。

So so discuss the significance of this before we get started on anything else.

好吧，我得从我当会计师的日子说起，因为正是那时我开始思考这个问题。

Well, I'm gonna start I'm gonna go back to my days as an accountant because this is actually when it when I first sort of started thinking about it.

我不是那种喜欢庆祝生日的人。

I'm not much of a birthday celebrator.

但我特别注意到，那些重要的里程碑往往都和十、二十、三十、四十、五十、六十这样的整数年龄挂钩。

And but one of the things I'm particularly struck by is the ones that are hallmarks tend to be tied to ten, twenty, thirty, forty, fifty, sixty, so on.

在这些随机的十年节点上，生活其实并没有太多变化。

Not a lot of life changes around those sort of random decades.

当我还在道富银行当会计师时，我干的是最糟糕的工作——其中一部分职责是计算货币市场基金和债券基金的净资产值，这意味着要按天累计利息。

And when I was working back at State Street as an accountant, I had the worst job, which is I had to one part of my job was to calculate the NAV of money market and bond funds, and that meant accruing the interest by the day.

当时LOTUS 1-2-3刚推出，于是我用它写了一个小程序，来简化债券利息的计算和天数统计。

And so LOTUS one two three had just come out, and so I was using that to write a little program to make it easier to calculate bond interest and count all the days and so on.

在测试程序时，我输入了自己的生日，结果发现当时我大约已经活了9500天。

And when I was testing it, I put in my own birthday and it ended up I was at the time something like 9,500 old.

这正是这个想法的起源，我开始意识到我们一生大约有三万天，或者通常有三万天左右的高效生活。

And that was sort of the genesis of this idea where I started thinking we live about thirty thousand days or generally have thirty thousand really productive days.

而我们的人生更自然地以一万天为阶段划分。

And our life divides much more naturally on the ten thousand day increments.

度过一万天后，你大约二十七八岁，就在那个年龄段。

So after ten thousand days, you're about 27 or so, 28, somewhere in there.

人们通常认为第一个一万天是拓宽视野的阶段：尝试新事物、新地方、新职业、新人际关系、新城市。

And you often think that first ten thousand days is about going wide, experimenting, trying new things, new places, new professions, new people, new towns.

这是一个探索的时期。

It's a time of exploration.

21岁或20岁并不能准确捕捉这个阶段。

And 21 years old doesn't capture it or 20.

等到30岁来临，你通常已经进入了我所说的人生的第二阶段，也就是大约一万天的时候。

And by the time 30 comes around, usually you're already into what I would call that second phase of life, so right around ten thousand days.

到那时，通常平均而言，人们已经决定了自己想做什么、在哪里做、和谁一起做。

By then usually, on average, people have decided what they wanna do, where they wanna do it, who they wanna do it with.

而不再像前一万天那样广泛探索，而是转向深入。

And instead of going wide as they have for the first ten thousand days, it's about going deep.

通过婚姻、家庭、职业、专业以及同事关系，所建立的关系深度会逐渐加深。

The just the depth of relationships that comes through marriage, through family, through your vocation, your profession, your colleagues.

你有大约一万天的时间去执行、去实现和构建那些在很大程度上将成为你生命丰碑的东西——你的家庭、孩子和事业。

You sort of have ten thousand days to execute, ten thousand days to accomplish and build what in many ways will be the sort of monuments of your life, your family, your kids, your profession.

大约在五十五、五十六岁，或者五十多岁的某个阶段，但这时会发生什么？

And then right around fifty five, fifty six, fifty you know, somewhere in this fifties range, But what happens?

你的孩子已经长大，开始离开家。

So your kids are grown and beginning to to leave.

你在职业上所取得的成就已经相对稳定。

What you've achieved professionally is fairly settled.

有趣的是，这为许多人卸下了一副沉重的担子。

And in a funny way, it lifts an enormous weight off many people.

我认为这正是人们在步入五六十岁乃至七十岁时反而变得更快乐的原因之一，因为此时你又可以重新开始广泛探索了。

I think it's one of the reasons people actually end up growing happier as they get to their fifties, sixties, seventies, because you're in a time when you can in a sense go wide again.

你有了更广阔的视角。

You have more perspective.

你不再那么被日常的紧迫感所困扰。

You have less of that urgent depth of the day to day.

所以，无论如何，我记得我们刚开始谈话时，讨论的是如何完成可能的第二个一万天，以及现在如何思考接下来的这一万天——这个从现在到八十多岁的阶段。

So anyway, I know when we started talking, we were talking about this idea of both sort of completing the maybe our second ten thousand days and now looking at how we think about the the this next ten thousand, this chapter that sort of gets us from here till around in our eighties.

这如何影响你实际的生活方式？

And how does this affect the way that you're actually living?

这种对三个阶段的觉察，如何改变你对行为方式、关注重点以及当前所追求目标的看法？

Like, what is this awareness of these three phases do to your view of how to behave and what to focus on and what you're actually optimizing for at this point?

这其实与我对投资的思考方式息息相关。

Well, this sort of ties in with how I think about investing.

其中很大一部分关乎预期和准备。

There's so much about of it is about anticipation and preparation.

所以我认为，很多人在三十多岁时感到不快乐，部分原因是他们在想：我的青春去哪儿了？

So I think a lot of people go through unhappiness in their thirties in part because they're sort of thinking, where did my youth go?

我以前能做很多不同的事情，但现在被束缚住了。

I used to be able to do all these different things, and now I'm tied down.

而如果你拥有这种心态，你就会真正期待那种能够深入专注的特权。

And if instead you have this mindset, you really look forward to that, the privilege of being able to go so deep to concentrate.

我认为，这种想法对我如何看待接下来的这一万天产生了一点影响，那就是反过来思考：什么会阻碍这新的一万天成为人生中非常充实的阶段？

And I think how it's affected me thinking about this next ten thousand days is a little bit about this idea of inverting it and thinking about what would stand in the way of this ten thousand days being a very enriching time of life.

当然，健康是其中之一。

And, of course, health is one of them.

因此，当你展望进入人生的下一个阶段时，你会越来越多地思考如何照顾好自己。

So it becomes as you think about going into this next third, it becomes a a time where you think a lot about taking care of yourself.

你会思考如何投资人际关系。

You think about investing in relationships.

当你在抚养孩子、每天上班时，你的生活和社会交往很大程度上是被安排好的。

When you're raising a family, when you're in the office every day, you know, a lot of your life and your social life are structured for you.

当你进入下一个一万天时，人们可能会失去联系。

As you get to the next ten thousand days, people can lose touch.

所以我认为，这也是我投入大量精力维护、激活和重新连接关系的时期，深入了解我孩子们的伴侣和配偶，确保友谊的各个层面都能持续下去。

So I think it's also been a time when I've really invested in maintaining, invigorating, revisiting relationships, deeply getting to know my children's partners and spouses, making sure that there are aspects of friendships as people.

听好了。

Look.

我们或许会谈到这一点，但退休这个想法对我毫无吸引力。

We may get to this, but I the idea of retiring has no appeal to me.

我的意思是，我热爱我所做的事情。

I mean, I love what I do.

每当我想到我们研究如此有趣的东西却能获得如此丰厚的报酬时，我都觉得不可思议。

It always seems startling to me that we get paid so well for studying something so interesting.

这应该是一个随着时间推移而不断精进的职业，前提是我们不制造行为和心理上的障碍。

And it should be a profession where we get better over time, provided we're not creating behavioral and psychological roadblocks.

如果是这样，我希望能一直干下去，只要我还能做。

And if that is the case, I would like to continue as long as I could.

但当然，我也明白，这并不适用于我许多最亲密、最老的朋友。

But of course, I also recognize that's not the same for many of my closest and oldest friends.

当他们考虑退休、搬家和前往不同地方时，旧有的模式可能会逐渐消散。

And so as they contemplate retirement and moving and going to different places, old patterns can dissipate.

所以我认为，现在是时候真正为即将到来的这个激动人心的新篇章做好准备了。

So I think it's a time to really invest in being prepared for this sort of exciting chapter that's in front of us.

它可能不会有一个完美的结局，但一万天可是很长一段时间。

And it it may not end very well, but ten thousand days is that's a long time.

因此，我认为这确实影响了我对如何为这一过渡做准备的思考。

And so I think it certainly has impacted how I think about preparing for that transition.

我觉得伯克希尔的年度股东大会非常有趣，我想那正是你我上次聊天的地方。

I thought it was very interesting, the Berkshire annual general meeting, which I I guess that's where you and I last chatted actually.

我们在周日，也就是所有活动结束、大家都离开后，聊了几个小时。

We spoke for a couple hours on the Sunday, I guess, after it all ended, and air everyone had left.

你和我有幸和我另一位朋友坐下来聊天。

And you and I had the pleasure of sitting down with another friend of mine, and and chatting.

我在股东大会上注意到，巴菲特说了好几次。

I I was very struck at the AGM that Buffett said a couple of times.

他谈到了写讣告然后思考如何活出那样的人生的想法。

He talked about the idea of writing your obituary and then trying to figure out how to live up to it.

他说，你看。

And he said, look.

如果你想了解如何生活，那就先写好讣告，然后逆向推导，倒着来，这其实和尼克·斯利普所倡导的目的分析法非常相似——即设想一个幸福的结局，再……他并没有用这个词。

If you wanna know how to live your life, write the obituary, then reverse engineer it, go backwards, which is really not dissimilar to what Nick Sleep does with this whole idea of destination analysis of figuring out a happy ending and then well, he didn't use that phrase.

然后反过来思考需要哪些投入。

And then working backwards and thinking of the inputs.

开始感到不安。

Starting to feel unsafe.

对此我真的很抱歉。

I'm so sorry about that.

这里有个预警。

Trigger warning here.

然后开始逆向思考，要达成那样的结果需要哪些前提条件。

And then starting to work backwards to figure out what the inputs are to get that.

而且，你显然曾近距离接触过查理·芒格和沃伦·巴菲特，我们稍后会更深入地讨论这个话题。

And, obviously, you've been close to Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett, and we'll talk about this more.

我想知道，看到92岁的沃伦和99岁的查理以如此非凡的方式走过人生的最后篇章，这对你思考如何度过自己人生的第三阶段——无论它有多长——产生了怎样的影响。

I'm wondering how seeing Warren at 92 and Charlie at 99, seeing how they've lived the sort of the final chapters, the closing chapters in this kind of remarkable way, how that's had an impact on your sense of how you wanna live that third stage out of the three, however long it may be.

当然，我可以进一步扩展这个名单。

Well and I could expand that list.

我的意思是，沃伦和查理是很好的榜样，但我还有一位极具影响力的祖母。

I mean, Warren and Charlie are great examples, but I had an incredibly influential grandmother.

事实上，她照片就挂在我旁边的墙上，她活到了106岁。

In fact, her picture's on the wall here next to me who died at 106.

天啊。

And Wow.

我104岁的时候还带她划过皮划艇，100岁的时候带她骑过摩托车，她还拥有国际关系的博士学位。

I had her in a kayak at 104, and had her on a motorbike at 100, and she had a PhD in international relations.

我的意思是，她是一位了不起的智慧典范，祖母。

I mean, was an incredible intellect and model, grandfather.

凯瑟琳是什么样的人？

What what was Catherine.

她

Her

那就是凯瑟琳·戴维斯。

So that was Catherine Davis.

那你从她身上学到了什么？

So And what did you learn from her?

你观察到什么？

What did you observe that

嗯，她各方面都极其出色，但这会联系到沃伦、查理，以及我列在那张名单上的所有人，那就是他们始终保持着兴趣。

Well, she she was magnificent in every way, but this is gonna be a tie in to Warren, to Charlie, to all of the people that I would put on that list is one was this idea of they kept interested.

他们始终对生活充满投入。

They kept so engaged with life.

我母亲有一位非常亲密的朋友，我们小时候总是很钦佩她，因为她是一位极具反叛精神的强势女性，但随着她年纪渐长，我注意到她开始对科技带来的影响感到怨恨。

My mother has a a very close friend who we always admired as kids because she was that that powerful sort of irreverent woman, but one of the things I've watched as she's gotten older is she resents the impact of technology.

她不愿意学用手机，不愿意发邮件，更别提什么Instagram之类的东西了，结果就是她越来越与外界脱节。

She doesn't want to learn to use a cell phone, she doesn't want to do email, she doesn't certainly not gonna do Instagram or something, and the result is she is increasingly getting cut off.

所以，保持兴趣这个理念——如何对周围的世界持续保持兴趣。

So this idea of keeping interested, how you stay interested in the world around you.

我认为第二点是，他们都始终保持乐观。

I think the second thing is they all kept optimistic.

有一种非常普遍的‘老人病’，就是觉得世界正在走向毁灭。

There's a very common sort of old man disease, which is the world is going to hell.

当然，我们会有这种感觉，因为我们不再处于中心位置。

And of course, we feel like that because we're no longer at the center of it.

尤其是美国，但世界上很多地方都是如此。

America in particular, but a lot of the world is oriented.

所有的营销信息都针对人们收入和家庭生活的巅峰阶段。

Every marketing message is oriented towards people in their peak spending years, in their peak family years.

那时，你是所有人依赖的中心。

You're at the center of everybody depending on you.

我认为，随着时间推移，世界继续前进，而你变得越来越不相关。

And I think what happens is gradually, of course, the world moves on and you become less relevant.

人们不愿接受这一现实，反而责怪世界错了，觉得只要别人肯听他们的就好了。

And rather than have your ego absorb that reality, people rail that the world is wrong, that if only people listen to them.

因此，我认为一种悲观情绪开始主导了这些老人。

So I think you get a pessimism that begins to take over a ranker.

所以，我认为抵制这种倾向是下一步的关键。

And so I think resisting that is the next.

保持兴趣，抵制这种悲观倾向——这本质上只是将你自身衰亡的轨迹投射到整个世界上。

So keeping interested, resisting that pessimistic tendency, which is really simply the extrapolation of the approach of your own demise and projecting it onto the world.

与保持兴趣相关的一点是，我看到沃伦、查理、我祖母，还有那些活到八十多岁乃至更久的人，都一直在结交新朋友，我父亲86岁了，至今还在滑雪，也是如此。

A related one to keeping interested, and I've seen this so much with Warren, with Charlie, with my grandmother, people who are octogenarians and whatever the next two decades that come after that means, certainly with my father who's 86 and still skiing, is this they keep making new friends.

生命的其中一个令人深思的方面，就是人们衰老的方式差异如此巨大。

They just it is a very sobering part of life is how dramatically differently people age.

我小时候和青少年时期，不幸地没有经历青春期。

I had the enormous misfortune when I was a kid and a teenager of not hitting puberty.

事实上，直到高中最后一年，我才长到五英尺高。

In fact, I didn't break five feet tall until I was a senior in high school.

我只想说，其他一些关键成长里程碑的出现也来得比较晚，这让那段人生时光变得非常艰难。

I will just say the loss of other defining milestones happened somewhat later, and that that made that time of life very trying.

当然，正如查理·芒格喜欢指出的那样，除了遗传因素外，青春期发育得越晚，往往是预测长寿的最强指标之一。

And but of course, the other side of that, as Charlie Munger likes to point out, is one of the other than genetics, one of the strongest predictors of age is how late you hit puberty.

因此，你自然会看到朋友们衰老的速度各不相同。

And so, of course, you see it with friends aging at different rates.

所以，我祖母在晚年曾对我说，那对她来说非常艰难——她不仅活过了所有朋友，还活过了许多朋友的孩子。

And so that idea of my grandmother very late in her life said to me that it was very difficult for her, that she not only outlived all of her friends, she outlived many of her friends' children.

因此，对她而言，不断结交新朋友变得尤为重要。

And so for her it was keeping making new friends became a very important part of it.

所以，当我观察所有我敬佩的长者时，我会说，他们充满兴趣、乐观积极，不断结识新人并维系关系。

So what I would say when I look at all of these older people that I admire is they are interested, they're optimistic, and they're constantly meeting new people and pursuing relationships.

而自怨自艾并没有多少容身之地。

And there's not a lot of time for self pity.

一位朋友说，每天只参加一场管风琴演奏会。

To one friend said only one organ recital a day.

他们不需要花太多时间谈论哪些事情失败了。

They don't need to spend a lot of time talking about what's failing.

所以想想看。

So think look.

这不正是从自己的讣告或葬礼倒着思考人生的理念吗？

Isn't it ultimately that idea of living life backwards from your obituary or from your funeral?

这是一种非常有用的思维方式。

It is a very useful way to think.

我认为，始终保持这种视角在脑海中，是一种非常有益的练习。

And it it is keeping that perspective in the back of your mind, I think, is a very useful exercise.

大约三十年前，当我开始采访伟大的投资者时，我主要只是想弄清楚如何不弄脏双手、不拼命工作就能致富。

When I started interviewing great investors about thirty years ago, I mostly just wanted to figure out how to get rich without getting my hands dirty and working too hard.

但经过大量采访这些人之后，我逐渐意识到，他们提供了关于如何更好地思考和生活的极其宝贵的教训。

But what I gradually realized after interviewing a lot of these people is that they offer incredibly valuable lessons about how to think better and how to live.

在许多方面，我刚刚播放的与克里斯·戴维斯对话的这段视频，正是这种来自伟大投资者的世俗智慧的绝佳例证。

And in many ways, this clip that I just played from my conversation with Chris Davis is a beautiful example of that, of this kind of worldly wisdom that we can learn from the great investors.

我特别喜欢他在视频中谈到如何对待自己生命中最后的一万天的那个时刻。

I particularly like the moment when he talks in that clip about how to approach the last ten thousand productive days of his life.

他说，你真的应该反过来想，问问自己：我怎样才能毁掉自己生命中的最后一万天？

And he says, you really wanna invert and you wanna say, how could I screw up the last ten thousand days of my life?

这实际上是查理·芒格经常做的事情，他从一位著名的德国数学家古斯塔夫·雅各比那里借鉴了这个想法：逆向思考，总是逆向思考。

And this is really a great example of what Charlie Munger would often do, where he took this idea from a famous German mathematician called Gustave Jacoby, who said, invert, always invert.

于是芒格采纳了这一原则，并说：每当我要解决一个难题时，最好的方法之一就是反向思考，逆向推演。

And so Munger takes this principle and he says, okay, whenever I'm trying to solve a difficult problem, one of the best ways to do it is to solve it backwards, to invert it.

所以，如果你想弄清楚如何拥有成功的人生，那就先从弄清楚如何拥有失败的人生开始。

So if you want to figure out how to have a successful life, you start by figuring out how to have an unsuccessful life.

因此，克里斯·戴维斯在这里思考如何面对生命中最后的一万天时，他实际上是在说：好吧，如果我搞垮了自己的健康或破坏了人际关系，那就已经是个不错的开端了。

So what Chris Davis is doing here when he's thinking about how to approach the last ten thousand days is he's saying, okay, well, if I wreck my health or I wreck my relationships, that's a pretty good start.

这肯定会毁掉一切。

That's gonna ruin it.

所以你首先要弄清楚什么不该做。

So you first figure out what not to do.

我特别喜欢这种对思维方式的实际应用，芒格不仅将其应用于市场，还应用到生活的其他领域。

So I just love this as a very practical application of a particular way of thinking that Munger would apply not only to markets, but other areas of life.

因此，当我们研究伟大的投资者时，我认为最好的做法之一就是审视他们生活中哪些方面是成功的，哪些是糟糕的，然后决定我们要模仿哪些。

So I think one of the best things that we can do really when we're studying the great investors is to look at what aspects of their life we think are successful and what aspects are awful and decide what we're going to clone.

所以我喜欢研究巴菲特和芒格这样的人，并不是因为他们绝对完美，而是因为他们做对了太多事情。

And so I like studying people like Buffett and Munger, not because they're absolutely perfect, but because they got so much right.

所以克里斯是理解他们的一个绝佳渠道。

And so Chris is a great conduit for understanding them.

我的意思是，他们持续学习，持续投资于人际关系，从未陷入悲观，更不用说自我怜悯了——这一点查理曾多次提到。

I mean, this understanding that they continue to learn, that they continue to invest in their relationships, that they never fell into pessimism, or for that matter self pity, which is something that Charlie talked about a great deal.

因此，对我来说，我不断回到试图弄清楚这些人已经学到的东西，这样我就不用重新发明轮子了。

So I think for me, I'm just constantly coming back to trying to figure out what these people already learned so that I don't have to reinvent the wheel.

克里斯成为了这些伟人如芒格和巴菲特与我们之间的绝佳桥梁。

And Chris becomes kind of a great bridge between these greats like Munger and Buffett and us.

威廉，让我们短暂休息一下，听听今天赞助商的信息。

William Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors.

不，这不是你的错觉。

No, it's not your imagination.

风险和监管正在加剧，客户现在要求提供安全证明才能开展业务。

Risk and regulation are ramping up and customers now expect proof of security just to do business.

这就是为什么Vanta是一个变革者。

That's why Vanta is a game changer.

Vanta自动化您的合规流程，将合规、风险和客户信任整合到一个由AI驱动的平台上。

Vanta automates your compliance process and brings compliance, risk and customer trust together on one AI powered platform.

无论您是在准备SOC 2审计，还是在运行企业GRC项目，Vanta都能确保您的安全并推动交易顺利进行。

So whether you're prepping for a SOC two or running an enterprise GRC program, Vanta keeps you secure and keeps your deals moving.

不再追逐电子表格和截图，Vanta为您提供超过三十五个安全与隐私框架的持续自动化。

Instead of chasing spreadsheets and screenshots, Vanta gives you continuous automation across more than thirty five secondurity and privacy frameworks.

像Ramp和Ryder这样的公司使用Vanta后，审计时间减少了82%。

Companies like Ramp and Ryder spend 82% less time on audits with Vanta.

这不仅仅是更快的合规，更是为增长腾出更多时间。

That's not just faster compliance, it's more time for growth.

如果我现在正在运营一家初创公司或扩大团队，这正是我想要部署的平台。

If I were running a startup or scaling a team today, this is exactly the type of platform I'd want in place.

前往 vanta.com/billionaires 开始使用。

Get started at vanta.com/billionaires.

那就是 vanta.com/billionaires。

That's vanta.com/billionaires.

亿万富豪投资者通常不会把资金存入高收益储蓄账户。

Billion dollar investors don't typically park their cash in high yield savings accounts.

相反，他们常常采用机构投资者常用的被动收入策略——私人信贷。

Instead, they often use one of the premier passive income strategies for institutional investors, private credit.

如今，得益于 Fundrise 收入基金，这一被动收入策略已向所有规模的投资者开放，该基金已吸引超6亿美元投资，派息率达7.97%。

Now the same passive income strategy is available to investors of all sizes, thanks to the Fundrise Income Fund, which has more than $600,000,000 invested and a 7.97 distribution rate.

随着传统储蓄利率下滑，私人信贷在近几年成长为万亿美元资产类别也就不足为奇了。

With traditional savings yields falling, it's no wonder private credit has grown to be a trillion dollar asset class in the last few years.

立即访问 fundrise.com/wsb，只需几分钟即可投资 Fundrise 收入基金。

Visit fundrise.com/wsb to invest in the Fundrise Income Fund in just minutes.

该基金在 2025 年的总回报率为 8%，自成立以来的平均年总回报率为 7.8%。

The fund's total return in 2025 was 8% and the average annual total return since inception is 7.8%.

过往业绩不预示未来表现，截至 2025 年 1 月 20 日 12:30 的当前分配率。

Past performance does not guarantee future results, current distribution rate as of twelvethirty onetwenty twenty five.

投资前请仔细考虑投资材料，包括目标、风险、费用和开支。

Carefully consider the investment material before investing, including objectives, risks, charges, and expenses.

更多信息可在 fundrise.com/income 的收入基金招募说明书中找到。

This and other information can be found in the income funds prospectus at fundrise.com/income.

这是一则付费广告。

This is a paid advertisement.

当我开始自己的副业时，突然感觉一夜之间必须成为十种不同的人，扮演各种角色。

When I started my own side business, it suddenly felt like I had to become 10 different people overnight wearing many different hats.

从零开始做一件事可能令人兴奋，但也可能让人感到无比压力和孤独。

Starting something from scratch can feel exciting, but also incredibly overwhelming and lonely.

这就是为什么拥有正确的工具很重要。

That's why having the right tools matters.

对数百万企业来说，这个工具就是 Shopify。

For millions of businesses, that tool is Shopify.

Shopify 是全球数百万企业的电商平台，占美国电子商务总量的10%，涵盖从初创品牌到家喻户晓的企业。

Shopify is the commerce platform behind millions of businesses around the world and 10% of all e commerce in The US from brands just getting started to household names.

它为你提供了一站式解决方案，涵盖库存、支付和分析等功能。

It gives you everything you need in one place from inventory to payments to analytics.

因此你无需在多个不同平台之间来回切换。

So you're not juggling a bunch of different platforms.

你可以使用数百个现成的模板打造一个精美的在线商店，Shopify 还内置了众多实用的 AI 工具，能帮你撰写产品描述，甚至优化产品图片。

You can build a beautiful online store with hundreds of ready to use templates and Shopify is packed with helpful AI tools that write product descriptions and even enhance your product photography.

此外，如果你遇到任何问题，他们提供屡获殊荣的 24/7 客户支持。

Plus, if you ever get stuck, they've got award winning twenty four seven customer support.

今天就与业内最佳的商业伙伴 Shopify 一起开启你的事业，立即注册每月仅需 1 美元的试用期，访问 shopify.com/wsb。

Start your business today with the industry's best business partner, Shopify, and start hearing Sign up for your $1 per month trial today at shopify.com/wsb.

前往 shopify.com/wsb。

Go to shopify.com/wsb.

那就是 shopify.com/wsb。

That's shopify.com/wsb.

好的。

Alright.

回到节目。

Back to the show.

我们下一个片段来自我在2022年初与比尔·米勒的一次精彩对话。

Our next clip is from an amazing conversation that I had with Bill Miller in early twenty twenty two.

比尔，正如你所知，是我们这个时代最伟大的投资者之一。

Bill, as you know, is one of the great investors of our time.

他最著名的是连续十五年跑赢市场，这几乎是不可能的。

He most famously beat the market for fifteen years running, which is more or less impossible.

然后他在金融危机期间遭遇了著名的挫折，但此后实现了惊人的反弹，部分原因是他对亚马逊持有巨额个人股份。

Then he had a famous blow up during the financial crisis and since then has had an unbelievable rebound driven partly by the fact that he had an immense personal stake in Amazon.

有一刻，他告诉我，他是除了贝佐斯之外，亚马逊最大的个人股东。

At one point, he told me that he was the biggest individual shareholder of Amazon whose name wasn't Bezos.

但他还做出了一个巨大且非常逆向的押注——投资比特币，而价值投资圈的大多数人认为这简直疯狂。

But then he also made an enormous and very contrarian bet on Bitcoin, which most members of the value investing community regarded as kind of insane.

像巴菲特和芒格这样比尔非常敬仰的人，甚至把比特币称为‘鼠毒’。

People like Buffett and Munger, who Bill admires greatly, regarded as rat poison.

当我于2022年初与他交谈时，比特币刚刚经历了一次减半，正处于极度不受欢迎的时期。

When I was speaking to him in early twenty twenty two, Bitcoin had just halved and was very much out of favor.

而比尔自比特币早期就开始 aggressively 购入。

And Bill had been buying it very aggressively since the early days.

他曾告诉我，他最初以每枚200美元的价格买入，后来他的平均成本约为每枚500美元。

He had told me at one point that he had started buying at $200 per coin, and then his average price was around $500 a coin.

在这段对话中，他深入探讨了比特币，讲述了他从中看到了什么，以及他是如何将其本质提炼出来的。

And so in this clip, he's talking really in some depth about Bitcoin, what he saw in it and how he kind of reduced it to its essence.

他的见解异常具有前瞻性。

And it's kind of extraordinarily prescient.

我于11月15日录制这段内容，当天比特币价格高达91,235美元，令人惊叹。

I'm recording this on November 15 on a day when Bitcoin is at 91,235 astonishingly.

这真是一次非凡的逆向押注。

So this was an amazing contrarian bet.

我们与比尔讨论这个问题时，比特币正处于最受冷落的时刻。

We're talking to Bill about it at a time where it could hardly have been more out of favor.

让我们先听一听，然后我再分享一些看法。

Let's listen and then I'll share a few comments about it.

我想问问我们是否可以谈谈比特币和加密货币。

I wondered if we could turn to Bitcoin and crypto.

关于这方面，我有很多问题。

I have a lot of questions on this front.

我认为看待这个问题最明显的背景就是这种误解。

I think the obvious context to look at it in is this whole idea of misperception.

就像我们之前讨论亚马逊时提到的，你对它的看法与市场其他人的看法截然不同。

Because as we were talking about with Amazon, you had a very different perception than the rest of the market.

而比特币这里同样存在非常激烈的思想分歧。

And here again with Bitcoin, there are just these very, very heated ideological differences about Bitcoin.

这几乎就像关于比特币的某种宗教或政治分歧。

It's almost like a sort of religious or political difference about Bitcoin.

在我看来，你传统上的优势之一就是能够稍微超然地退后一步，问：这到底是什么东西？

And it seems to me traditionally part of your advantage has been to step back somewhat dispassionately and to say, what actually is this thing?

你能先谈谈这种看待世界的方式是从何而来的吗？

Can you talk first about where this way of thinking about the world comes from?

因为这显然部分源于你对维特根斯坦和威廉·詹姆斯的研究，以及这种更清晰地看待事物、减少偏见、追问‘这到底是什么’的理念。

Because it clearly stemmed in part from your study of Wittgenstein and William James and this whole idea of seeing things more clearly, not being so biased and trying to say, what actually is this thing?

所以在深入讨论比特币的细节之前，我想请你谈谈这种哲学性的问题：你如何真正地描述事物、清晰地看待世界，以免被自己的偏见和成见所困？

And so before we get to the detail of Bitcoin, I wonder if you could actually talk about that kind of philosophical problem of how you actually describe three:fifty things and see things clearly so that you're not just caught up in your own prejudice and bias.

是的，我认为这最初源于威廉·詹姆斯、维特根斯坦，然后是约翰·杜威，再到二十世纪的理查德·罗蒂，意思是，你可以回溯到康德，比如，或者叔本华。

Yeah, I would say it came out of a lot of initially William James, Wittgenstein, and then John Dewey, and then Richard Rorty in the twentieth century in the sense of, you go back to Kant, for example, or Schopenhauer.

叔本华很有趣，因为他花了无数年研究康德，最终认为康德大体上是对的，但遗漏了一些关键点。

And so Schopenhauer is interesting because he spent countless years just studying Kant and concluding that Kant had things mostly right, but he missed a few big things.

他真正忽略的是当他谈到‘物自体’时。

And the thing that he really missed was when he talked about the ding on seek, the thing in itself.

所以你根本没有能力直接看到事物本身。

So what you have is you don't have no ability to see things as they are themselves.

你所看到的实际上是事物的表象，而这些表象可能与事物的真实状态相符，也可能不相符。

What you see is effectively your representation of them, which may or may not fit the way that things actually are.

叔本华的洞见在于，你根本不需要‘物自体’这个假设。

And Schopenhauer's insight was that you don't have any need of the hypothesis of things as they are.

因为它对你没有任何用处，它是不可触及的。

And it doesn't do any work for you because it's inaccessible.

因此，你所拥有的只是你感知到的事物的表象。

Therefore, all you have is your representation of things as you perceive them.

因此，如果你继续向前看威廉·詹姆斯，他提出的一个观点，或者说我最初的想法是：没错，正是如此。

Therefore, if you then go forward to William James, one of the points that he made or personally, I guess initially was, yes, that's exactly right.

因此，你真正关心的只是这些观点在帮助你应对所处世界时有多有用。

And therefore, what you really care about is just how useful are these views that you have to navigate the world that you're in.

我认为，如果我理解得没错的话，这一点会浮现在脑海中。

And I think this comes to mind if I get it right.

有一个关于三位棒球裁判的故事，他们被问到是如何判好球和坏球的。

There's a story of the three baseball umpires and they're asked how they call balls and strikes.

第一位棒球裁判，可以称他为康德主义者或近康德主义者，他说：‘我判的是球本来的样子。’

And so the first baseball umpire who could be called a Kantian or a near Kantian, and he says, Well, I call them as they are.

如果是好球，我就判好球。

If they're strikes, I call them strikes.

如果是坏球，我就判坏球。

If they're balls, I call them balls.

这就是哲学，你把这种观点称为现实主义。

And then so that's philosophy, you call that realism.

按照事物本来的样子来判。

Call them the way that they are.

然后还有一类人，基本上是融贯论者，他们认为真理就是那些彼此一致、相互融贯的东西。

And then there's basically the coherence theorists who believe that truth is basically things that cohere consistently together.

融贯论者裁判说：‘我根据我看到的来判罚。’

The coherence theorist umpire says, Well, I call them as I see them.

如果我觉得是好球，我就判好球。

If I see them as strikes, I call them strikes.

我觉得是坏球，我就判坏球。

I see them as balls, I call them balls.

显然，他承认自己可能判错了，但这就是他看到的样子。

So obviously leaving open that he could be calling them the wrong way, but that's the way he sees them.

然后是实用主义裁判，他说：‘在我判之前，它们什么都不是。’

And then you get the pragmatic umpire, he says, They aren't anything until I call them.

所以我认为这才是关键。

So I think that's the key.

从我的角度来看，我对比特币本身并没有特定的立场。

From my standpoint, I don't have a particular view one way or the other about Bitcoin as it is.

查理·芒格认为比特币是对货币的威胁，是邪恶的。

Charlie Munger thinks it's a threat to currencies, it's evil.

2017年，许多金融专家对比特币持非常负面的看法。

A lot of finance mavens were very negative on Bitcoin in 2017.

现在有些人改变了态度，比如保罗·都铎·琼斯、拉里·芬克，还有橡树资本的霍华德·马克斯，他们当初曾严厉批评比特币，但现在认为这或许可以接受。

Now some have come around, Paul Tudor Jones, Larry Fink now, Howard Marks at Oaktree, who were denouncing it then and now that, well, this can be okay.

我们很可能在这方面是错的。

We probably are wrong about that.

杰米·戴蒙表示，称比特币是欺诈之类的是不对的。

Jamie Dimon says it was wrong to call it a fraud and stuff like that.

但巴菲特和芒格仍然持反对态度。

But Buffett and Munger are still out there.

我的观点是，这个东西有多大用处？

My view is how useful is this thing?

不管它是什么，它的用处有多大？

Whatever it is, how useful is it?

它在我的投资组合中能否完成其他东西无法替代的功能？

Does it do a job in my portfolio that I can't have done with something else?

在什么情况下它会表现良好？

Under what circumstances will it do well?

在什么情况下它不会表现良好？

Under what circumstances will it not do well?

因此，我对比特币的关键看法是，它是世界上唯一一个经济实体——当然也是货币实体——其供应量不受需求影响。

And so that's my key to Bitcoin is that it's the only economic entity in the world, certainly monetary, but it's just called economic entity in the world that the supply is unaffected by the demand.

比如黄金，现在大约是1800美元，如果黄金变成18000美元而不是1800美元，那么会有更多黄金被开采出来。

So if gold, which is what's gold, 1,800 say something like that, if gold was $18,000 instead of 1,800, there'd be a lot more gold mined.

因此，今天原本无利可图的黄金开采，就会变得有利可图。

So gold that was uneconomic to mine today would become economic.

我的意思是，查理·芒格曾在伯克希尔的会议上表示，他预计任何法定货币在一百年后都将变得一文不值，相对于今天的价值而言。

And I mean, Charlie Munger said, I think at the Berkshire meeting that he expects that any fiat currency in a hundred years will be worth zero compared to what it's worth today.

这是因为人们不断增发这种货币。

That's because they keep creating more of it.

而比特币今年的供应量预计只会增长约1.7%。

And with Bitcoin, the supply this year will grow about 1.7 maybe.

因此，关于比特币，你唯一需要问的问题是：从长期来看，需求是否会超过大约1.7%、1.5%，直至降至零？

And so the only question you have to ask about Bitcoin is over the long term, will the demand exceed in essence 1.71.5% then all the way down to zero?

我认为需求的增长速度会快于这个水平。

I think it's going to grow, demand's going to grow faster than that side.

再说明一下——抱歉，比尔，为了像我这样对这方面不熟悉的人能理解，这基本上是因为比特币的供应量固定在约2100万枚，目前已有约1900万枚被挖出。

Again- Sorry, Bill, just to explain that for people like me who are not experts on this, this is basically because the supply is fixed at about 21,000,000 coins and about 19,000,000 have been mined so far.

所以我们知道，你能解释一下吗？

So we know can you just explain that

从硬币的供应端来看？

for the idiots side to coin?

比特币的供应量有点像你从未见过的那种东西。

Supply of Bitcoin is a little bit like you've never seen that.

最近刚去世的那位发明家是谁？他发明了那个黑盒子。

Who's the inventor who just died recently who invented that black box.

当你打开开关，盖子一打开，一只手伸出来把开关再关上，然后又缩回盒子里。

When you flip the switch and the lid came up and a hand came out and it turned the switch back off again and went down to the box.

所以，基本上这就是比特币。

So basically that's what Bitcoin is.

它是一种协议，而比特币的数量有一个特定的特性，就是基本上会减半。

It's a protocol and effectively the number of Bitcoins has a certain feature that it basically goes in half.

新的供应量每四年减半一次。

The new supply goes in half every four years.

所以我想是每十分钟产生12个比特币吧。

So I think what is it, 12 Bitcoins every ten minutes are created.

所有这些计算机和矿工都在解方程，只是为了获得这些比特币，它们会被奖励给矿工，比例是三十比五十：如果

That's what all the computers and the miners are solving equations just so they can get those Bitcoins, which are given to them thirty:fifty): if

他们验证协议正常运行，没有双重支付之类的问题。

they verify that the protocol is functioning properly and there's no double counting and stuff like that.

所以这个数量是固定的。

So that's fixed.

总量是两千一百万个，到2140年，供应量就会用尽。

It's twenty one million and 2140, that's when the supply will run out.

那么对于比特币来说，谁来维护呢？矿工们将来会做什么？

Then for Bitcoin, who's so going to maintain the What are the miners going do that?

嗯，他们仍然会维护账本，只不过那时他们不是获得比特币，而是通过收取交易费用来获得报酬。

Well, they're still going to maintain the ledger and they're going to do that though, they get fees for that instead of getting Bitcoin.

同样的过程将继续进行，除非从所谓的工作量证明转向权益证明，我认为这目前对比特币构成潜在风险，但并不严重。

The same process will be underway unless they go from what's called proof of work to proof of stake, which I think is a potential risk to Bitcoin right now, but not a big one.

威廉，当你解释比特币看涨的核心论点时，你有一种将复杂事物简化为更容易理解的东西的天赋，那么这个核心论点本质上是不是供需关系——即供应极其有限？

William So when you explain the essence of the bull case for Bitcoin, and you have this kind of gift for simplifying things and reducing the complexity to something kind of more graspable, is the essence of the case basically the supply demand argument that there's very limited supply?

供应量正在以你刚才描述的这种缓慢方式增长，

The supply is growing three:fifty):

但需求却巨大且持续增长。

in this kind of poultry way that you just described, and yet there's enormous potential and growing demand.

这就是它的本质吗？

Is that the simple essence of it?

确实是，但让我说得更具体一点。

It is, but let me make it maybe more concrete.

我举两个例子，一个是人人都能理解的，第二个是大家理论上能理解，但可能不了解细节。

I'll give two examples, one that everybody will understand and the second one, they will understand theoretically, but maybe not the details.

所以人人都能理解的例子是，巴菲特说比特币是一种非生产性资产。

So the one that everybody will understand is when what Buffett says is that Bitcoin is a nonproductive asset.

他说，我不会为了世界上所有的比特币给你25美元，但如果我买一块农田，我可以用它种东西。

He said, I wouldn't give you $25 for all the Bitcoins in the world, but if I buy farmland, I can grow stuff with it.

如果我买一家公司，它能为我产生股息、收益和现金。

If I buy a company, can generate dividends and earnings and cash from me.

比特币却做不到这些。

Bitcoin doesn't do any of that stuff.

所以他说，比特币就像黄金，你只能坐在那里看着它。

So he says, it's like gold, you can sit there and look at it.

它只是占着你投资组合中的一个位置，但没有生产能力，因此他无法为它估值。

It sits in a place in your portfolio, but it's nonproductive and therefore he can't value it.

我觉得这说得挺有道理的。

And I think fair enough.

我的意思是，如果你认为唯一能估值的只有能产生收益的资产，那也没人逼你去买它。

Mean, if the only thing that you think you can value are productive assets, then no one's making you buy it.

所以就别管它。

So ignore it.

现在，对大多数人来说可能更常见的情况是，我曾经用这个例子跟我的好朋友克里斯·戴维斯讨论过，我想我可能跟你说过。

Now, other maybe more mundane thing for most people would be that I've used this, think I might've told you, used this with Chris Davis, my good friend, Chris Davis.

我对克里斯说，他参加过我所有关于比特币的重要会议，从比特币还值200美元的时候就开始了，但他从未买过。

And I said to Chris, who's been in every meeting, major meeting that I've been in on Bitcoin going back to when it was $200 and he's never bought it.

他的观点是，是的，我明白比特币可能是一种数字黄金。

And his argument is, well, yes, I understand that could be digital gold.

事实上，它可能比黄金更好，但我自己也不持有黄金。

In fact, it probably might be better than gold, but I don't own gold either.

它是一种非生产性资产。

It's a nonproductive asset.

他对这一点持有巴菲特的观点。

He's got a Buffett view on that.

我为什么要持有比特币？

Why would I own Bitcoin?

我给他的第一个回答是，投资的目的不是持有生产性资产，而是赚钱。

My first answer to him is, well, the objective of investing is not to own productive assets, the objective is to make money.

所以问题在于，你能靠这个东西赚钱吗？

So the question is, can you make money with this thing?

因为它不给你分红，但你可以靠它赚钱。

Because it gives you dividends, but you can make money with it.

我对他说，但听好了，换个更好的方式来想，克里斯。

What I said to him, said, but look, here's a better way to think of it, Chris.

你是保险领域的专家，对吧？

You're an expert in insurance, right?

他回答说，是的，我自诩是。

He's like, yes, I purported to be.

我祖父曾是纽约州的保险监理官，我父亲则是长期的保险分析师。

My grandfather was insurance commissioner of New York and my father was a longtime insurance analyst.

我年轻时出版过一份通讯，叫《保险分析师观察者》之类的。

I published a newsletter when I was young called the insurance analyst observer or something like that.

我说，那你怎么评估一份保险单的价值呢？

And I said, so how do you value an insurance policy?

他说，嗯，其实评估一家保险公司其实很容易。

He said, well, you can evaluate insurance company really easily.

你可以看看他们的风险敞口，看看资本状况，看看他们以往的经验，看看他们的投资组合质量，等等。

Can look at the exposures, you can look at the capital, you can look at the experience they've had, you can look at the quality of their investment portfolio on and on.

我说，我不是说保险公司，我说的是保险单。

Said, I didn't say an insurance company, I said an insurance policy.

他停顿了一下。

He paused a second.

我说，好吧，让我告诉你我是怎么想的，你告诉我我哪里错了。

I said, Well, here, let me tell you the way I think about that and you tell me where I'm wrong.

我说，你有买保险吧？

I said, You own insurance, right?

你有健康保险、汽车保险、房屋保险、人寿保险，类似的东西，对吧？

You have health insurance, you have car insurance, you have homeowners insurance, life insurance, stuff like that, right?

财产保险。

Property insurance.

他说，是的。

He's like, Yeah.

我说，这些保单的内在价值是什么？

Said, What's the intrinsic value of those policies?

你每年都要为这些保单支付一笔费用。

You write a check every year for those policies.

我说，那这些费用的价值又是什么？

And I said, And what's the value of those?

我说，我是这么看的：你实际上是在付钱给他人，买一份你希望永远用不上的保单。

And I said, The way I look at that is you are paying somebody else basically for a policy that you hope is worthless.

你并不希望过早去世。

You don't want to die prematurely.

你不希望患上重病。

You don't want to get serious illness.

你不希望家里被闯入。

You don't want to have your house broken into.

拥有一份在发生严重不幸时能赔付你的保障对你来说很有价值，只不过如果保险公司倒闭了，那保障就归你了。

And it's valuable to you to have something that will pay you if something really bad happens, except if company goes bad, it's yours.

自己拥有它，一旦发生这种情况，它就能解决你的问题。

Own it and it's going to solve your problem with that if that happens.

现在我们有黄金，它可以起到这种作用。

Well, right now we have something called gold, which could do that.

但同样，它的供应量并不是固定的，而其他所有东西，如果你住在委内瑞拉、尼日利亚、黎巴嫩，或者在乌克兰战争爆发时，或者在阿富汗美军撤出时，情况都是如此。

But again, its supply isn't fixed, but everything else out there is something that if you live in Venezuela or you live in Nigeria, live in Lebanon, you lived in Ukraine when the war broke out, all of that stuff, Afghanistan when the US pulled out.

当美军从阿富汗撤出时，西联汇款停止了向阿富汗汇款或从阿富汗接收汇款。

When the US pulled out of Afghanistan, Western Union stopped sending remittances there or taking them from Afghanistan.

但如果你拥有比特币，你就没事。

But if you had Bitcoin, you were fine.

你的比特币就在那里。

Your Bitcoin is there.

你可以把它发送给世界上任何一个人。

You can send it to anybody in the world.

只要有一部手机。

Have a phone.

因此，我认为比特币本质上是一种应对各种金融灾难的保险。

So I consider Bitcoin basically an insurance policy against financial catastrophe of one sort or another.

不一定要非此即彼。

Doesn't have to be all or nothing.

不一定要发生像美国爆发战争、银行全部停摆之类的极端情况。

Doesn't have to be like there's some war in The United States or some kind of thing where the banks are all shut and stuff like that.

只是看看疫情爆发时货币供应量发生了什么。

It's just the case that if there's a look what happened to the money supply when the pandemic hit.

当美联储在疫情期间介入，大举增加货币供应，实质上救助了抵押贷款房地产投资信托基金以及其他从事商业票据等业务的人时。

When the Fed stepped in in that pandemic and started gunning the money supply and bailing out in essence, the mortgage REITs and the other people that are doing commercial paper and stuff like that.

比特币运行良好。

Bitcoin functioned fine.

没有任何人挤兑比特币。

There was no run on Bitcoin.

它最初大幅下跌，但系统在没有美联储干预的情况下正常运行，每个人都拿到了自己的比特币，价格也进行了调整。

It went down a lot initially, but the system functioned without fed and without any interference and everybody got their Bitcoin and the price adjust.

当比特币用户和新比特币用户意识到：等等，我们即将面临百分之三十的通货膨胀时，

And then when the Bitcoiners and newer Bitcoiners realized, wait, we're going have inflation one:thirty down the

道路尽头，比特币价格飙升。

road, Bitcoin went through the roof.

所以我认为，从我的角度来看，它是一种保险政策。

So that I think is it's an insurance policy, the way I look at it.

你还说过一件事，对我产生了深远的影响。

You also said something that had a profound impact on me.

我想上一次或更早之前我们讨论比特币时，你告诉我，大约在2014年到2015年，你刚开始对它着迷，是因为你听到了文塞斯·卡萨雷斯谈论它。

I think the last time or the previous time we talked about Bitcoin, where you explained to me that back in about 2014, 2015, when you first started to get fascinated by it, it was because you heard Wences Casares talking about it.

他当时所描述的，正是你刚才说的：如果你来自美国，那里有运作良好的法律体系、相当不错的金融治理、财产权和法治，那么要理解比特币为何如此有价值确实非常困难。

And that he was explaining exactly what you were just saying, that if you came from The US where you had a functioning legal system and pretty good financial governance and property rights and the rule of law and all of that stuff, it was actually very hard to understand why this would be so valuable.

而他来自阿根廷，有着完全不同的视角，这恰好契合了我试图探讨的关于认知的问题。

And that he came from Argentina where he had a totally different perspective, which kind of fits into what I'm trying to talk about in terms of perception.

你能谈谈他具体说了什么吗？

Can you talk about what he said?

因为在我看来，这一点极其重要——他之所以看待事物不同，是因为他没有生活在奥马哈这样的地方。

Because that seems to me profoundly important, this idea that he just viewed things differently because he wasn't living in Omaha, for example.

是的，比尔。

Bill Yeah.

我的意思是，他说他的家族在阿根廷已经生活了一百五十年，却多次被政府摧毁——银行被国有化，存款被没收，通过通胀被洗劫一空。

I mean, what he said was his family had been in Argentina for one hundred and fifty years and had been wiped out multiple times by the government, nationalizing the banks and taking the bank accounts away, inflating them away through that.

事实上，有三件事：银行国有化、通货膨胀，我忘了第三件是什么了。

In fact, there were three different things, nationalizing the banks, inflation, I forget what the third one was.

但无论如何，他提到，我们家族已经被摧毁过好几次了。

But in any case, the fact is he said, We've been wiped out several times.

他说，但有了比特币，我们就不会

And he said, But with Bitcoin, we can't

被清零。

be The wiped out.

政府在某些时候直接没收了你的资产，是的。

Government just seized your assets at certain points, Yeah.

对吧？

Right?

他说，有了比特币，就不会被清零。

And he said, With Bitcoin, can't be wiped out.

比尔说，政府无法把我们的资产夺走。

Bill The government cannot take it away from us.

这让我想起了我之前跟你讲过的鲍勃·席勒的故事。

That's what I might have told you the story of Bob Schiller.

他去了哪儿来着？

He went to, where was it?

应该是爱沙尼亚。

Estonia, I guess it was.

他当时在那里会见了一些商人。

And he met with the business people there.

他正前往达沃斯，准备参加一个关于比特币的小组讨论。

And he was on his way to Davos where he was going be on a panel about Bitcoin.

所以他很好奇，自己见过的那些商人中，有没有人在一个有上百人参加的房间里听他讲演。

So he was curious about if anybody of the business people that he had met, was in a room with a 100 of them and giving a talk on whatever.

他问他们中是否有人拥有比特币，结果所有人都举起了手。

And he asked if any of them owned Bitcoin and everybody raised their hand.

他说他感到非常震惊，于是问他们为什么。

And he said he was shocked and asked him why.

他说：‘因为二战后俄罗斯占领我们时，他们把银行国有化，抢走了我们所有的钱——不是我们的钱，而是我们祖父和祖辈的钱。’

He said, Well, because when Russia took us over after World War II, what they did was they nationalized the banks and they stole all of our money, not our money, but our grandfather and grandfather's money.

对于普通公民来说是这样，但如果你真的拥有企业，就会被送到西伯利亚。

That's if you're a regular citizen, but if you actually owned a business, you were sent to Siberia.

他说，我们就紧挨着俄罗斯。

He said, We sit right up here against Russia.

他们又可以这么做。

They can do that again.

他说，但这次他们拿不走我们的钱了，因为我们有了比特币，可以把它转到任何地方。

And he said, But they can't take our money this time because we got Bitcoin and we can send it anywhere we want.

我认为这同样发生在维特根斯坦的父亲身上，他曾是世界上最富有的人之一。

I think that's what happened with also with Wittgenstein's father, who was one of the wealthiest people in the world.

他把百分之三十到五十的资产投资在奥地利境外。

He had money invested outside thirty:fifty of Austria.

他把钱存在

He had it

美国、英国以及世界各地，因为他觉得不能相信奥地利政府不会窃取他的财富。

in The United States and England and everywhere, because he said he couldn't trust the Austrian government not to steal it.

当希特勒接管奥地利时，他们确实这么做了。

And then when Hitler took over Austria, he did.

他基本上没收了所有犹太人的财产，然后把他们送进了集中营。

He basically took all the money from everybody who was Jewish and then sent them to concentration camps.

维特根斯坦家族实际上获得了一项特别法令，因为他们把大量资金存在国外，并同意将其交给希特勒，所以没有被送进集中营。

The Wittgenstein family actually got some decree where they weren't sent to the concentration camps because they had all this money outside the country and they agreed to give it to Hitler.

他说：好吧，那我就把你们算作部分犹太人，你们可以被赦免。

And he said, Okay, well, I'll count you as only partially Jewish then and you'll be spared.

这就是比特币的一个优势。

So that's one of the things about Bitcoin.

黄金可没有这种优势。

That's not the case with gold.

你不可能背着一袋袋黄金试图越过边境。

You can't carry gold around in sacks trying to get across the border.

所以这是比特币的另一个优势。

So that's another advantage that Bitcoin has.

贝莱德旗下的富达数字资产最近发表了一篇关于比特币的出色文章。

Bill Fidelity had one of the best pieces they wrote recently on Bitcoin, Fidelity digital assets.

他们提出的一个观点是，这是反对比特币的一个论点。

One of the points they made was that it was one of the arguments against Bitcoin.

一种普遍的看法是，斯坦·德鲁肯米勒曾经这么说，现在仍然这么说，但总有人会发明出更好的东西。

One of the perceptions is that Stan Druckenmiller used to say it, he still says it, but somebody is going to invent something better.

现在有成千上万种代币和加密货币，而加密领域的技术总是在不断变化。

There's thousands of these tokens and coins out there and technology is always changing in crypto.

所以总会有人发明出更好的，就像很多人认为以太坊比比特币更优秀一样。

So somebody is going invent one that's better, just like Ethereum was better than Bitcoin according to many people.

Solana 比以太坊更优秀。

Solana is better than Ethereum.

富达的这些人表示，我们认为这种看法其实是错误的，因为比特币本质上就像车轮。

And the Fidelity people said, Well, that's actually wrong in our opinion, because basically Bitcoin is like the wheel.

车轮被发明出来之后，没有人再需要重新发明它。

Nobody needed to reinvent the wheel after it was invented.

而以太坊实际上是一种专门化的实体。

Now Ethereum is actually a specialized type of entity.

它可能像是巨型拖拉机的轮子，或者是一种防爆轮胎，或者具备比特币没有的某些特性，但本质上它还是一个轮子。

It's maybe like a wheel for giant tractors, or it's maybe a wheel that's a run flat wheel, or it's got these things that Bitcoin doesn't have, but it's basically a wheel.

所以比特币就像轮子，是完美的轮子。

And so that Bitcoin is the wheel, it's the perfect wheel.

威廉，我非常喜欢这段我和比尔·米勒对话的片段，因为它让你感受到他作为投资者为何如此非凡。

William I love this clip from my conversation with Bill Miller, because I think it gives you a sense of just what makes him so extraordinary as an investor.

他在几乎整个价值投资圈都反对他、认为比特币是‘老鼠药’的时候，依然敢于大力投资比特币，这完全不影响他。

The fact that he was prepared to invest so heavily in Bitcoin at a time when almost everyone in his community, world of value investing, disagreed with him and thought it was rat poison didn't bother him at all.

比尔始终具备独立思考的能力，质疑所有人深信不疑的东西。

What Bill always had was this ability to think for himself and to question everything that everybody believed.

他有一种极其开放和中立的思维方式。

There's something extraordinarily open minded about him and agnostic.

我很多年前第一次写关于他的长篇报道时就看到了这一点，那是大约2000年或2001年，我为《财富》杂志写的一篇深度报道，当时他大举投资了亚马逊，而他圈子里的大多数人认为亚马逊会破产。

And I saw this many, many years ago when I first wrote about him, a long profile for Fortune magazine back in about 2001 or 2000, I think, when he had made this enormous investment in Amazon, which most people in his community thought was going to go bankrupt.

而这一次，他同样毫不在意。

And again, it just didn't bother him.

那时他已经买入了公司15%的股份，而股价从90美元跌到了6美元。

At that point had bought 15% of the company and the stock had gone down from 90 to six.

其他人认为它会倒闭，但这对他来说根本不是问题。

And the fact that everyone else thought it was going to go under just was not a problem for him.

比尔总是对那些具有巨大上行潜力的极不对称赌注感兴趣。

Bill was always interested in these very asymmetric bets where there was tremendous upside.

我记得大约一两年前，哥伦比亚大学的传奇教授布鲁斯·格林沃尔德告诉我，比尔是‘爆炸性上行’的专家。

And I remember Bruce Greenwald at one point, a legendary professor from Columbia, said to me a year or two ago that Bill was a specialist in explosive upside.

所以我认为，就像在亚马逊身上一样，比尔在比特币上看到的也是这种爆炸性上行的潜力和巨大的不对称性。

And so I think as with Amazon, part of what Bill saw with Bitcoin was this potential for explosive upside, this tremendous asymmetry.

即使比特币可能一无所获、他可能会赔掉所有钱，他也并不在意，因为他看到了如果成功，回报将极为可观。

And it didn't really bother him that it could go nowhere and he could lose all of his money on Bitcoin because he was able to see that there was this extraordinary upside if it did work out.

因此，他愿意在回报巨大但风险极高的不对称情境下下注，这最终成了巨大的优势。

And so his willingness to bet on asymmetric situations where the rewards were enormous, even if the risks were huge, it turned out to be a huge advantage.

所以你能感受到伟大投资者是如何以概率思维看待问题的，以及他们违背大众、做出这种押注所需的非凡勇气和坚定信念。

And so I think you get a sense of the way great investors think probabilistically, the incredible guts and conviction it takes to go against the crowd to make this sort of bet.

这件事本身就有些非凡之处。

And there's just something kind of remarkable about it.

比尔在投资时总是引用维特根斯坦、威廉·詹姆斯等哲学家的思想，这让我觉得他特别迷人。

The fact that Bill was drawing on all of these philosophers like Wittgenstein and William James when he was investing always made him very fascinating to me.

他感兴趣的不仅仅是钱。

He wasn't just interested in the money.

他在思考这些智力问题，比如：人们是如何误解像亚马逊这样的公司的？

Was looking at these intellectual questions like, how are people misperceiving a company like Amazon?

人们又是如何误解比特币的？

How are they misperceiving Bitcoin?

它到底是什么？

What really is it?

这些其实都是深刻的哲学问题。

And these are really philosophical questions.

但我认为，比尔还具备一种非凡的能力，能把事物还原到其本质。

But I think there's also an extraordinary ability that Bill has to reduce things to its essence.

我特别喜欢我们这次对话中的一个部分，就是他能够将比特币的本质提炼出来，看出其中存在供需失衡。

One of the parts that I love about this exchange that we had was when really he was able to reduce Bitcoin to its essence and see that there was this supply demand imbalance.

这是一种非常、非常了不起的洞察力。

And it was just a really, really remarkable perception.

显然，比特币的情况要复杂得多，我们还得拭目以待比特币未来的发展。

Obviously, case of Bitcoin was much more complex and we'll see what happens with Bitcoin down the road.

但我认为，比尔能比几乎所有的同行更早、更清晰地看到这一点，并且果断押注，因此从中赚取了巨额财富，这一点必须给予他极大的肯定。

But I think you have to give Bill a tremendous amount of credit for seeing this more clearly than almost all of his peers and seeing it earlier than almost all of his peers and also backing up the truck so that he just made a vast fortune off this bet that he got right.

这次对话后期还提到另一件我觉得非常有趣的事，那就是我问比尔，像查理·芒格和沃伦·巴菲特这样聪明的人，到底错过了比特币的什么。

The other thing that I think is really interesting that came up later in this conversation was when I asked Bill what people like Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett, brilliant as they were, missed about Bitcoin.

他提到的一点是——这是他的原话——他说：我认为每个人在某种程度上都有盲点，都会犯错。

And one of the things he said is, and this is an exact quote, he said, I think everybody's got blind spots in one way or another and they're error prone.

他说，其中一个盲点、一个问题在于，他们年纪大了，不习惯新事物。

And he said, but certainly one of the blind spots, one of the issues he said, is that they're old and they're not used to new things.

他们不是那种愿意拥抱新技术和不同做事方式的人。

And they're not the type of people who embrace new technologies and different ways of doing things.

他们只关注经过验证的传统方式，也不愿意承担太多风险。

They look at the tried and true and tested, and they also don't want to take a lot of risk.

所以我认为这是一个非常有趣的观察：无论你多么出色，像沃伦和查理那样，我们每个人都有自己的盲点。

So I think it's a really interesting observation just that we all have our blind spots in one way or another, even if you're as great as Warren and Charlie.

我记得曾经问过查理关于比特币的问题，问他什么情况下会认为自己错了。

And I remember once asking Charlie about Bitcoin and asking what would make him think he was wrong.

但他根本不愿意回应这个问题。

And he just didn't engage in the question at all.

我的意思是，我认为他只是把比特币视为一种社会弊病。

I mean, I think he just regarded it as a social ill.

他认为这是对社会有害的东西，因为需要强有力的货币，而比特币可能会削弱美元。

He regarded it as something that was bad for society because you needed strong currencies and this could undermine the dollar.

它可能会破坏现有的金融体系。

It could undermine the existing financial system.

所以他根本不关心它是不是一项好的投资。

And so he didn't care whether it was a good investment or not.

他并不关心赚钱。

He didn't care about making money.

他认为这是一种社会弊病。

He thought it was a social ill.

所以我说的不是他对还是错。

So I'm not saying that he was right or wrong.

我只是觉得他是通过某种特定的视角来看待这个问题，而他更倾向于其他赚钱的方式。

I just think he was looking at it through a particular lens and he saw other ways of making money that appealed to him more.

因此，我认为比尔·米勒的一大优势，就在于他能够不带偏见、不带成见地看待各种情况。

And so one of the great strengths, I think, of Bill Miller always is that ability to look at situations without prejudice, to look at it without bias.

我认为，比特币和亚马逊一样，都是绝佳的例子。

And I think Bitcoin, as with Amazon, is an extraordinary example of it.

这在很大程度上解释了他为何是一位如此卓越的投资者和思想家。

I think goes a long way to explain what a remarkable investor and remarkable thinker he is.

今天我要播放的最后一个片段，是完全不同的内容。

The final clip I'm gonna play you today is something completely different.

这是我和迈克尔·伯格的一次对话。

It's from a conversation that I had with Michael Berg.

迈克尔是一位杰出的学者和作家，他借助卡巴拉的古老灵性智慧，探讨如何构建真正更富足、更智慧、更快乐的人生。

Michael is a great scholar and author who draws on the ancient spiritual wisdom of Kabbalah to talk about how we can build lives that are truly richer, wiser, and happier.

过去十六年左右，我深入研究了迈克尔的教导，并从他那里学到了大量东西。

I've studied Michael's teachings pretty deeply for the last sixteen years or so and have learned an enormous amount from him.

因此，当我邀请他上我的播客时，我既非常兴奋，又有点紧张，因为他是我最敬佩的人之一。

So I was very excited and slightly nervous also to get him on the podcast because he's one of the people I admire most in the world.

在这段对话中，他谈到了如何从我们现有的财富中获得更多的愉悦。

In this clip, he talks about how to extract more pleasure from the wealth we happen to have.

我们来听一听，然后我会补充几句最后的评论。

Let's listen, and then I'll add a couple of final comments.

我想更详细地谈谈如何提升我们对现有金钱的享受，因为几年前你和你的妻子莫妮卡做过一期非常有趣的播客——《灵性饥渴》，当时你们讨论了如何以更平衡的方式享受金钱。

I wanted to talk in more detail about how to increase our enjoyment of the money we have, because you did a very interesting podcast a couple of years ago with your wife, Monica, the spiritually hungry podcast, where you talked about how to enjoy our money in a more balanced way.

你还提到自己小时候家境贫寒，不得不去旧货店买衣服，但从未感到匮乏。

And you talked about growing up without money yourself and having to buy clothes in thrift shops and the like, but never having any sense of lack.

所以你说，最重要的不是我们拥有多少钱，而是能够享受我们已有的财富，并从中获得快乐和满足。

And so you were saying that the most important thing is not how much money we have, but being able to enjoy what money we do have and get pleasure and fulfillment from it.

因此，我想更深入地探讨一下如何真正做到这一点。

So I wanted to talk in a bit more depth about how actually to do this.

如果我没记错的话，你提到的第一点是，这里有许多值得讨论的要点。

And the first thing you said, if I remember rightly, there are a whole slew of points that are worth discussing here.

但你提到的一个颇具争议的观点是，认识到钱从根本上说并不属于我们，这正是坦普尔顿所谈论的，即我们只是上帝财富的管家。

But one of the things you talked about that's kind of a provocative idea is the importance of recognizing that the money is not yours in the first place, which is something that Templeton talked about there, right, where he talked about being a steward of God's wealth.

你能谈谈这个观点吗？为什么这样想会有帮助？

Can you talk about that idea and why it's helpful to think this way?

是的。

Yes.

这非常重要。

It's very important.

首先，你说这有点争议，但事实上，只要你认真思考超过五秒，就会意识到这是真的。

So first of all, you say it's a little controversial, but the reality, of course, is that if you think about it for more than five seconds, you realize that it's true.

对吧？

Right?

没有一个富人能把自己的钱带进坟墓。

No wealthy man ever takes his money into the grave.

我的意思是，他或许能物理上带走它。

I mean, he might be able to physically take it.

但这对他是没有好处的。

She does him or her no good.

所以，从客观和哲学的角度来看，钱并不属于我们。

So objectively, philosophically, the money is not ours.

对吧？

Right?

这只是一个事实真相。

That's just a factual reality.

但更重要的是，如果我们理解一切皆为能量，更重要的是，我们所拥有的一切实际上都不属于我们，这不仅适用于金钱，也适用于智慧。

But more importantly, if we understand that everything is energy, and more importantly, that none of what we have is actually ours, and this is true, again, not just of money, it's true of wisdom.

有多少智者在一瞬间中风，所有那些智慧似乎瞬间消失？

How many wise people have a stroke, in a second, all that wisdom, what seems to no longer exist?

有多少人深爱着自己的车，却突然发生了意外？

How many times people have a car that they love and something happens?

对吧？

Right?

人们以为自己拥有某物，而它却消失的情况，占了99%的时间。

The times that people think that they own something, and then it goes away is 99% of the time.

它可能需要一年、五年、五十年，也就是我们赖以生存的这具身体。

It might take a year or five years, fifty years, this body within which we live.

认为这具身体属于我，这种想法很荒谬，因为我们都知道，不幸的是，到了某个时刻，它就不再为我们服务了。

To think that it is mine is ridiculous because we all know that, unfortunately, at a certain point, it no longer continues to serve us.

这一切都是想说明，我们所拥有的东西， ego 让我们以为是属于自己的，比如‘这是我的智慧’，

That is all to say that the false view of that which we have acquired, which the ego wants us to take ownership of, which is this is my wisdom.

这是我的钱。

This is my money.

这是我的车。

This is my car.

这是我的孩子。

This is my child.

这种来自自我、虚假的想法，客观上在物理上并不真实，但更重要的是，绝对在精神上也不真实。

That thought which comes from the ego and is false, it is not is a it is objectively not physically true, but more importantly, certainly not spiritually true.

我们所拥有的一切都是为了某种目的而给予的礼物，无论是为了享受、参与还是分享。

All we are given are gifts for purpose, either to enjoy, to partake, to share them.

当我们真正地将自己拥有的一切视为并非属于我们，而是被赋予我们来照料时。

When we really and truly view everything that we have as not ours, but as given to us, again, for to take care of.

如果拥有巨额财富，其中很大一部分其目的当然是用来分享。

If it's a tremendous amount of wealth, a big part of that, of course, will have to be its purpose is to share.

但这一点不仅适用于财富，也适用于我们的孩子。

But it's true about wealth, and even our children.

我们所感受到的最深痛苦之一，源于自我让我们相信：这是我的东西。

Some of the the greatest pain that we ever feel stems from the ego convincing us that this thing is mine.

当任何人试图夺走它，或者成功夺走了它，就会带来巨大的痛苦，因为原本属于我的东西现在被拿走了。

And then when anybody tries to either take it away from me or succeeds in taking it away from me, that causes great pain because this thing that was mine has now been taken away from me.

如果你认为：不，这从来就不是我的。

If you view it as, no, this is not this was never mine.

这从来就不是我的。

This was never mine.

它只是被赐予了我。

It was given to me.

也许它只是被赐予我一天。

Maybe it was given to me for a day.

也许它只是被赐予我一周。

Maybe it was given to me for a week.

首先，你会更充分地享受它，因为你的珍惜之情永远不会减退。

First, you have greater enjoyment of it because your appreciation for it never wanes.

而且，关于这种珍惜之情，我其实不想深入太多，但我觉得这是这一理念的基础。

And, again, I there's a lot I don't wanna go to this point of appreciation, which I think is foundational to to to this idea.