RWH056：风暴中的平静——与克里斯托弗·贝格同行

果然不出所料，去年我们经历了一个正常的年份，一个普通的火灾季节。

And lo and behold, last year, we had a normal year, a normal fire season.

结果如何？

And what happened?

股价从每股3美元飙升至14美元。

The stock went from three to fourteen dollars a share.

随着那片阴云散去——虽然总会有新的阴云——但当时的情况就是，好吧。

And as that cloud was removed and there's always clouds and, you know, it says, okay.

现在我们要解决哪些问题？

Now what are the ones we're working through?

因此当没有阴云时，我们内部讨论通常认为：如果没有风险因素，我们可能只能看到个位数的内部收益率，这时候或许应该考虑寻找替代投资。

And and so when there's no clouds, and internally our conversations are are generally if there's no clouds, we're probably looking at single digit IRRs, and we should probably be looking for, you know, something to replace that.

但这通常是有帮助的。

But that generally helps.

Perimeter是一家小型公司。

Perimeter is a a small company.

对吧？

Right?

我是说，它的市值大约15亿，业务涉及消防产品、设备、人员、物流等等。

I mean, it's a billion and a half market cap, something like that, and does these fire safety products and equipment and personnel and logistics and stuff.

所以有很多用于野外消防的化学品之类的。

So lots of firefighting chemicals for wildland firefighting and stuff.

我在想，鉴于你们总是关注长期趋势或者说像冲浪者所说的指数级浪潮，这是否部分押注于全球变暖和极端天气？

And so I was wondering, given that you always have this focus on secular tailwinds or as you would put it as a, surfer, exponential waves, is that partly a play on global warming and extreme weather?

比如，你们在利用什么样的长期趋势？

Like, what's what's going on there that you're playing in terms of a long term trend?

在我看来，Perimeter Solutions的情况是——我们自2009年起就投资了TransDigm。

The way that I see Perimeter Solutions is when we we've invested in TransDigm since 2009.

TransTime和Nicali可能是我们研究过的最佳运营公司之一，尤其在资本配置方面。

TransTime and Nicali, probably one of the best operator operated companies that we've ever studied, particularly as it comes to capital allocation.

我们经常问一个问题：你们会考虑从航空航天领域多元化发展吗？

And we often ask the question, would you ever diversify out of aerospace?

你们会考虑在其他垂直领域也这样做吗？

Would you ever do this in other verticals?

我认为他们看到了在航空航天领域的机会，而且这种思路非常纯粹。

And I think they saw their opportunity set in aerospace, and and there's the purity of thought.

我们会坚持专注于这个领域。

We're gonna stick to this.

但我认为尼克松心中始终有个疑问：当然，这套模式在其他垂直领域也能奏效。

But I think there was always a question in Nixon, like, of course, this is gonna work in other verticals.

如果我有足够的精力、资源和团队，或许我会尝试那么做。

And if I had the, you know, the the energy, effort, and people, maybe I would I would do that.

我想这就是Perimeter公司最初起步的缘由。

And I think that's how that initially kinda began Perimeter's journey.

于是他们成立了一家壳公司来收购Perimeter，但Perimeter将会发展出多项业务。

And and so they set up, you know, a shell company to acquire perimeter, but perimeter's gonna be many things.

阻燃剂业务只是我认为未来多条业务线的第一支柱。

So fire retardant is is the first leg of what I think will be many legs.

威廉，关于阻燃剂有一个长期趋势。

And there is a secular telling, William, when it comes to fire retardant.

不幸的是，随着气候变化，我们看到火灾越来越频繁。

You know, unfortunately, with with climate change, what we're seeing is we're seeing with more fires.

特别是在北美，我们看到荒野或森林与住宅的交界地带正在不断扩大。

But what we're also seeing is as we've you know, North America specifically, the interface between wild land or or forest and homes, you know, that edge continues to increase.

所以我们需要做好防护。

So we need to protect.

洛杉矶野火灾情就证明了这一点。

We saw this with the LA wildfires.

我们需要保护那片交界地带。

We need to protect that edge.

因此我们需要更多阻燃剂、更快响应能力，以及更早扑灭火灾的容量。

And so we need more retardant, faster, more capacity to kinda hit these fires earlier.

所以我们认为阻燃剂用量将长期保持增长趋势。

And so we think there's a long term secular tailwind of volume of fire retardant over time.

因此我们认为，这一业务板块的增长将远超GDP增速，Perimeter公司应该会表现相当出色。

So that leg, we think, is is gonna grow, you know, well above GDP, and we think, you know, Perimeter will do will do quite well.

他们刚刚启动了第二业务板块。

They just enter their second leg.

几周前我们发布公告，他们以3800万美元收购了一家印刷电路板企业。

So, we have a, an announcement a couple weeks ago where they made a $38,000,000 acquisition in printed circuit boards.

印刷电路板业务与您在航空航天零部件领域的定位非常相似。

And the printed circuit board business is very similar to kind of your position in aerospace parts.

一旦被指定为某款印刷电路板（PCB）的供应商，这个合作关系可能持续十五到二十年。

You get specked into a printed circuit board, PCB, and you may be in that for fifteen or twenty years.

这样既能获得批量订单，又具备一定的定价主动权。

So you get both the unit volume, you get some you get some pricing lever.

所以我们认为未来十年，PCB业务可能成为Perimeter公司非常重要的增长点。

And so we think that the PCB business could be a very important business for perimeter over the next ten years.

然后我们说，好的。

And then we say, okay.

第三个是什么？

What's the third?

第四个是什么？

What's the fourth?

我认为Perimeter可能会变得与现在截然不同，随着它的发展历程。

So I think Perimeter could be something very different than it is today as it as it kind of grows into its life.

但如果你从15亿市值开始陪伴它成长，了解他们的策略、管理团队、各项业务和资本配置，你就会知道结果将会非常出色。

But if you go on this journey with it from, you know, a billion 5 market cap, you understand what they're doing, you understand the management team, you understand the individual businesses, capital allocation, and you you know that the results are gonna be extraordinary.

我认为这就是我们的看法。

I I think I think that that's that's how we we view this.

我的意思是，当然，我们可以用现金流收益率等指标来衡量现状，非常有吸引力。

I mean, granted, we can measure what it is today for cash flow yield and so forth, very attractive.

但我认为我们前进方向中有些无形的因素，我认为是高度必然的，不知道这样说是否合理。

But I think there's something that's invisible about where we're going that I think is highly inevitable, if that makes sense.

我们稍事休息，听听今天赞助商的信息。

Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors.

有没有注意到聪明的投资者如何对冲尾部风险，却几乎从不谈论金融压制？

Ever notice how smart investors hedge against tail risk, but almost never talk about financial repression?

这里有一个令人不安的真相。

Here's the uncomfortable truth.

无论你如何谨慎构建投资组合都无济于事，因为如果围绕你资金的规则可以在一夜之间改变，你就是脆弱的。

It doesn't matter how careful you build your portfolio because if the rules around your money can change overnight, you're vulnerable.

问问加拿大卡车司机就知道了——他们的银行账户被冻结；或是古巴家庭——他们的汇款被国有银行劫持；还有数十个威权国家的公民——眼睁睁看着毕生积蓄在恶性通胀中蒸发。

Just ask the Canadian truckers whose bank accounts were frozen or Cuban families whose remittances were hijacked by state banks or citizens in dozens of authoritarian countries watching their life savings evaporate under hyperinflation.

这些并非孤立事件。

These aren't isolated incidents.

它们是一个全球模式的一部分。

They're part of a global pattern.

这就是人权基金会发布《金融自由报告》的原因——这份每周通讯追踪政府如何将货币武器化来控制人民，以及比特币如何帮助个人抵抗金融压制。

That's why the Human Rights Foundation publishes the Financial Freedom Report, a weekly newsletter that tracks how governments weaponize money to control people and how Bitcoin is helping individuals resist financial repression.

如果你关心健全货币、个人主权和金融自由，人权基金会的金融自由报告是必读材料。

If you care about sound money, personal sovereignty, and financial freedom, HRF's financial freedom report is essential reading.

这份报告我个人订阅后受益匪浅。

This is a report that I'm personally subscribed to and learn a ton from.

免费注册请访问financialfreedomreport.org。

Sign for free at financialfreedomreport.org.

网址是financialfreedomreport.org。

That's financialfreedomreport.org.

精明的投资者不只盯着美联储，他们放眼全球。

Smart investors don't just watch the Fed, they watch the world.

经营小企业时，招对人能带来天壤之别。

When you're running a small business, hiring the right person can make all the difference.

合适的员工能提升团队、促进效率，让业务更上一层楼。

The right hire can elevate your team, boost your productivity and take your business to the next level.

但找到这样的人选本身就像份全职工作。

But finding that person can feel like a full time job in itself.

这正是领英招聘能帮上忙的地方。

That's where LinkedIn jobs comes in.

他们新推出的AI助手能通过精准匹配符合您需求的顶尖候选人，消除招聘过程中的猜测。

Their new AI assistant takes the guesswork out of hiring by matching you with top candidates who actually fit what you're looking for.

无需筛选成堆的简历，它能根据您的标准过滤申请人并高亮最佳匹配，为您节省数小时时间，让您在遇到合适人选时能快速行动。

Instead of sifting through piles of resumes, it filters applicants based on your criteria and highlights the best matches, saving you hours and helping you move fast when the right person comes along.

最棒的是这些优质候选人早已在LinkedIn上。

The best part is that those great candidates are already on LinkedIn.

事实上，你的脸。也许你今天过得不好。

In fact, employees hired through LinkedIn are 30% more likely to stick around for at least a year compared to those hired through the leading competitor.

我很好，脸。也许你今天过得不好。

Hire right the first time.

脸。也许你今天过得不好。脸。也许你今天过得不好。

Post your job for free at linkedin.com/studybill, then promote it to use LinkedIn jobs new AI assistant, making it easier and faster to find top candidates.

脸。也许你今天过得不好。

That's linkedin.com/studybill to post your job for free.

脸。也许你今天过得不好。

Terms and conditions apply.

你知道是什么让顶尖企业脱颖而出吗？

You know what sets the best businesses apart?

正是他们如何利用创新将复杂性转化为增长。

It's how they leverage innovation to turn complexity into growth.

这正是亚马逊广告在AWS人工智能驱动下所实现的。

That's exactly what Amazon Ads is doing, powered by AWS AI.

亚马逊广告每天处理数十亿实时决策，在310亿美元的广告生态系统中优化广告表现。

Every day, Amazon Ads processes billions of real time decisions, optimizing ad performance across a $31,000,000,000 advertising ecosystem.

最终实现广告活动运行速度提升30%，并带来可衡量的规模化商业影响。

The result is campaigns that run 30% faster and deliver measurable business impact at scale.

而这正是亚马逊自身实现增长的方式。

And this is how Amazon itself drives growth.

其智能代理AI将营销从资源密集型流程转变为智能自主系统，最大化投资回报率，让营销人员能专注于创意与策略。

Their agentic AI transforms marketing from a resource heavy process into an intelligent autonomous system that maximizes ROI and empowers marketers to focus on creativity and strategy.

亚马逊广告正在证明：AI驱动的广告不仅是未来，更是新的竞争优势。

Amazon Ads is proving that AI driven advertising isn't just the future, it's the new competitive advantage.

更棒的是，每家企业都可以运用亚马逊内部完善的这套创新方法论。

And better yet, every enterprise can apply the same innovation playbook that Amazon perfected in house.

查看亚马逊广告案例请访问 aws.comai/rstory。

See the Amazon ad story at aws.comai/rstory.

网址是 aws.com/ai/rstory。

That's aws.com/ai/rstory.

好的。

Alright.

回到节目。

Back to the show.

是啊。

Yeah.

很有意思。

It's interesting.

这似乎某种程度上体现了你们工作的核心精髓。

That seems sort of part of the essence of what what you do.

我记得我们曾通过邮件或短信交流，当时我说——可能大家不知道——我在过去一两年里某个时间点投资了你们的项目。

And I I remember we were emailing or texting back and forth at one point, and I I was saying I have this very I I what people probably don't know is I invested with you at a certain point in the last year or year or two, I think.

我有种非常独特的投资方式：我只投资朋友，只投我信任的个人。

And so I have this very idiosyncratic way of investing where I have invested with friends, like, with people I trust, individuals I trust.

这种做法某种程度上颇具争议。

And it's kind of controversial in some way to do that.

我当时就这事给你发消息，你回复说'与善同行是智能复利的秘诀'。

And I was texting you about that, and you wrote back to me, getting into the river with goodness is the secret of intelligent compounding.

这就是我们在商业领域的做法——鲸道（Whale Road）。

It's what we do on the business side, the whale road.

能否解释下这个理念？或许我只是想给自己这种看似疯狂不理性的行为找个理由，但你当时是怎么想的？

Can you explain that, that idea that in maybe I'm just looking for a reason why I'm not totally nuts and irrational in doing this, but, what what were you thinking?

请为我们详细阐述下。

Unpack that for us.

你提到了一个关键点。

You you touched on something.

我曾两次坐下来撰写名为《鲸路》的年度信函。

So I've sat down to write an annual letter called the Whale Road twice.

这封信就是不愿被写出来。

It's just a letter that doesn't want to be written.

但它对我而言意义非凡。

And it's just as it it means something so big to me.

所谓鲸路，其实是对真理追寻的隐喻。

So the Whale Road is a reference to truth seeking.

它关乎提出越来越好的问题，从而让我们抵达——如你所说——那条将在眼前显现的复利之河。

It's about finding you know, asking better and better questions, which allows us to arrive at, you know, like you said, that river of compounding that will materialize in front of us.

你我曾花时间探讨过...虽然我们稍后可能会谈到这点...我们关注的是那些处于价值创造节点的企业，这些企业当前无法用所有标准衡量，但你知道它们未来会有许多建设性的重要发展维度。

You and I had spent some time on well, we'll probably get to this, but it's you know, we're thinking about businesses that are kind of in a a point of value creation, where you can't measure everything about the business today, and you know that there's gonna be a lot of vectors of that business that are gonna be quite constructive, quite important for that.

我们称之为价值3.0模式。

And and and what we call that we've called it value three point o.

而价值2.0模式是你能清晰预见的那种。

And value two point o is is something where you can see it.

它体现在自由现金流中。

It's in the free cash flow.

我们某种程度上是在推测它的未来走向。

We're kind of extrapolating where it's gonna go.

但这个价值3.0类别，虽然存在这些不确定性向量，但在我看来它们往往具有不对称性，且相当不可避免。

But this value three point o category, there are these vectors of uncertainty, but they are asymmetric in their in my view, oftentimes quite inevitable.

我认为，通过身体感知和直觉去探索那些拥有这些额外上升向量的企业，正是我们作为投资者成长过程中的魔力所在。

And I think that that feeling my way somatically, intuitively into the businesses that have these these extra vectors of upside is is a bit of the magic of of where we've grown as investors.

是的。

Yeah.

给大家多些背景信息，去年九月我和克里斯在英格兰同台参加了一个小组讨论，我采访了克里斯和我们的共同朋友弗雷德里克·布莱克福德——他是位风险投资人，还有传奇投资者詹姆斯·安德森，他在贝利·吉福德创下了惊人业绩。

To give people a little more background, Chris and I were on a panel together in England, I think, last September, and I interviewed Chris and our mutual friend, Frederick Blackford, who's a venture capitalist, and also a legendary investor named James Anderson who had this incredible record at Bailey Gifford.

尼克·斯利普当时在观众席，所以我也邀请他发表了看法。

And Nick Sleep was in the audience, so I I got to call on him as well.

我们当时就在讨论这个价值3.0的概念。

And so we were talking about this concept of value three point o.

弗雷德里克和克里斯当时指出，价值1.0版本更像是本杰明·格雷厄姆的理念，就是以大幅折价买入一篮子资产，而这些资产可能并不具备增长性。

And so Frederick and Chris made the point that value one point o was more like Ben Graham's version, right, where you're buying a basket of assets at a big discount, and they might not really be growing or anything.

然后芒格提出异议说：不对。

And then Munger comes along and says, well, no.

你应该以合理价格买入优质或卓越的企业。

You should buy, like, a good or excellent business at a reasonable price.

所以他某种程度上将价值与成长进行了融合。

So he's sort of merging value and growth a little bit.

接着比尔·米勒、尼克··斯利普等人提出价值3.0理论，认为实际上存在这些拥有强劲顺风和多重护城河的企业，但它们的自由现金流状况无法直观体现。

And then Bill Miller and Nick Sleep and the like are coming along with Value three point o and are saying, well, actually, there are these excellent businesses that have really great tailwinds and these layers of moats, but you can't really see it in the free cash flow.

这背后蕴含着深刻的理念差异，你们探索的正是这种哲学层面的差异——我是说亚马逊就是典型案例。

And so there's something very different going on philosophically that you guys are exploring that I I think I mean, is it fair to say I mean, that's that's Amazon.

我不知道。

That's I don't know.

那特斯拉呢？

Is that Tesla?

我是说，我们至少想和你深入探讨一下特斯拉。

I mean, we we we I at least wanna talk to you in-depth about Tesla.

从价值投资三点零的背景及其定义演变中，你产生了哪些思考？

What thoughts arise from just that background on value three point o and the evolution of of the definition of value investing?

威廉，你描述得非常精彩。

You did a beautiful job, William, describing it.

你知道，那种否定神学的观点。

You know, what the negative theology.

它包含什么？

What is in it?

它不是一点零版本。

It's it's not it's not one point o.

对吧？

Right?

它不仅仅是，你知道，我们做了很多价值二点零。

It's it's not just you know, we do a lot of value two point o.

那正是那正是最佳时机。

That is that is a sweet spot.

对吧？

Right?

如果我们能收购那些当前有自由现金流且现金流收益率在5%到10%之间的企业，然后运用我们的增长算法，最终实现15%更优的内部收益率，TransDigm就是这样的例子。

If we can buy things where there's current free cash flow and that current free cash flow yield, say, is five to 10%, and then we we kinda work our growth algorithm and we get to our 15% better IRR, TransDigm is that example.

Perimeter就是这样的例子。

Perimeter is that example.

但也会遇到当前自由现金流收益率较低的企业，可能只有个位数。

But then there are businesses that come our way that the current free cash flow yield may be low, maybe single digits.

我们通过回顾历史认识到这一点。

So and we know this through kind of looking back in history.

我们从Nick Sleep投资亚马逊的经历中也明白了这个道理。

We know this through Nick Sleep's experience with Amazon.

当你回顾时会发现，它们非常符合...

And they're very much when you look back here, oh, no.

这些曾是价值股。

These were value stocks.

它们必须是价值股。

They had to have been value stock.

你知道，它们以20%以上的复合增长率已经持续了十五到二十年。

You know, they've been compounding at 20% plus for over fifteen, twenty years.

这符合我的标准。

That meets That's my criteria.

那么我们该如何识别这些股票，当它们达到收益不对称性时，我们需要什么工具包？

So how do we what's the toolkit that we need to identify these when they're in their when they've kind of reached asymmetry of their returns.

对吧？

Right?

它们已经达到了逃逸速度。

They've they've reached escape velocity.

就像我之前说的，这些向量、路径是不对称的。

And the and like I said before, the vectors, the paths are asymmetric.

因此价值投资3.0正试图理解，我们处于S曲线的哪个位置。

And so value three point o is trying to understand, you know, where we are on the s curve.

我们是否处于S曲线的拐点？

Are we in the knee of the s curve?

我们是否处于S曲线的中部？

Are we kind of in the middle of the s curve?

我们处于S曲线的肩部位置。

We're in the shoulder of the s curve.

当企业达到这种逃逸速度，并开始长达可能数十年的非凡复利增长时——这种增长在盈利或自由现金流数据中并不明显——你需要做些功课才能发现。

And when a business reaches that escape velocity and it's just kind of has this long run, maybe multi decades of of this extraordinary compounding, not visible in the in the earnings or free cash flow numbers, you have to do some work to get there.

这就是我们在这里所指的那种情况。

That's the the kind of the what we're referring to here.

当然，能与詹姆斯·安德森同台讨论是莫大的荣幸，因为他以如此非凡的方式践行着这一理念。

Certainly, James Anderson, it's such a pleasure being on that panel with him because he's he's done this so in such an extraordinary way.

他可能是许多美国投资者不太了解的传奇人物之一，但詹姆斯确实是一位卓越的思想家。

Probably one of the legends I think that a lot of US investors don't may not be as as aware of, but James is just a wonderful thinker.

今年秋天我邀请他作为我课堂的第一位演讲嘉宾，我们开始建立起这份友谊。

I had him as the first speaker in my class this this fall and, you know, started to build that friendship.

我对詹姆斯长期在这个领域耕耘怀有深深的敬意。

And, I have a lot of respect for for James in in operating in this in this space for so long.

他写的信也相当优美。

Also writes some beautiful letters.

但你提到特斯拉——这确实是个颇具争议的名字，最近新闻里频频出现。

But you mentioned, you know, you mentioned Tesla, which is also a, you know, a a pretty controversial name right now, certainly in the news.

特斯拉就是价值3.0企业的典型代表。

And, you know, Tesla would be an example of a of a value three point o business.

对吧？

Right?

我们该如何分析这种情况？

How do, you know, it how do we work through that?

或者说——现在这个阶段是否还具有投资价值？

And and to kinda think about, you know, is this something that is investable here?

当然，如果你愿意的话，我们可以详细讨论这个话题。

And, you know, certainly, we could we can go through that if you'd like.

是的。

Yeah.

我们昨天还在发短信讨论，带着些许犹豫是否要触碰埃隆·马斯克和特斯拉这个敏感话题。

We were we were texting back and forth yesterday with some trepidation about whether whether to touch the third rail of Elon Musk and Tesla.

我当时对你说，我认为这对我们来说是个非常重要的讨论，不是出于任何政治原因，也不是作为股票推荐，而是因为它完美体现了你多维度的选股研究方法。

And I was saying to you that I I think it's a it's a really important thing for us to discuss, not for any political reasons or anything like that, not as a stock picker or anything like that, but actually because it's a it's a beautiful illustration of your multidimensional approach to stock picking, to to research.

因为去年四月2024年，当我在拉丁美洲拜访你时——你每年在那里生活半年——你刚开始认真思考特斯拉的问题，那时你正在进行大量访谈。

Because when I visited you in Latin America where where you live half the year, really a year ago from now, last April 2024, you were just starting to think really seriously about Tesla, and you were doing a lot of interviews.

我记得你当时对我说，你可能在等它下跌80%，那样的话会变得非常非常有意思。

And I think you sort of said to me at the time that you were kinda waiting maybe for it to fall 80%, and then it might be really, really exciting.

所以你对这个企业非常着迷。

So you're very fascinated by the business.

后来我们在2024年9月英格兰再次见面时，你可能已经小试牛刀了。

And then when we met in England a few months later, I guess, in September 2024, you'd maybe dipped your toes in a little bit.

我想你给孩子们买了一些股票，但没给自己或创始人买。

I think you bought a few shares for your kids, but not for yourself or your founder or anything.

你知道吗？

You know?

所以你这几个月才开始认真对待，而且确实开始大量买入了。

So you were just sort of and and my sense is that in the last few months, you got really serious, and and and you actually did start to buy seriously.

我很好奇，像你这样深度研究的人，是如何用几个月时间一步步分析这个问题的。

And I'm I'm interested to know, like, given the kind of depth of research that that you do, what your process was for breaking this down over months and months and months.

因为我记得你，你知道，我可能会说我曾认为马斯克是个有点糟糕的人。

Because I remember you you know, I would sort of say that I thought Musk was a sort of awful man.

而你会说，好吧，听着。

And you would say, well, look.

我已经系统性地阅读了他过去六个月每一条推文。

I've been reading every single one of his tweets for six months, like, systematically going through this.

所以这是关于超越偏见，真正触及某种更深层次的真相。

And so it's this is about getting beyond prejudice and actually getting at some sort of deeper truth.

比如，你具体做了些什么？

Like, what what did you do?

2023年9月，我受邀参加了瑞士采尔马特的一个静修活动。

So September '23, I was invited to go to a retreat in Zermatt, Switzerland.

那是个非常棒的静修会。

And wonderful retreat.

我已经去过两次了。

I've now gone twice.

这个活动每年九月举办。

It's every September.

25位投资者参加，都是很有见地的投资人，其中很多你都认识。

25 investors, really thoughtful investors, many that you know.

我们基本上就是在那里聚会。

We kind of meet there.

我们会徒步三天，徒步过程中我们会交流讨论，分享各种想法等等，之后还有个正式的会议环节。

We hike for three days, and then and during our hiking, we're talking, sharing into, you know, different ideas and so forth, and then we have a formal session.

其中一场预定的正式会议是，几位投资者想讨论特斯拉，他们邀请我主持这个小组讨论，因为我可以分享——我想和那年秋季我班上的学生分享其中一个环节。

One of the formal sessions that was scheduled was that a few of the investors wanted to talk about Tesla, and they asked me if I'd moderate the panel with the idea that I could share I wanted to share one segment with the students in my class that fall.

所以我们觉得，哦，这会是个很棒的内容可以分享给班级。

So we we thought, oh, this would be a great thing to share with the class.

这是个相当有趣的案例研究。

It's very kind of an interesting case study.

我之前对特斯拉完全没做过研究。

I had done zero work on Tesla.

所以坦白说，我当这个主持人很糟糕，因为我对此一无所知。

So literally, I'm like, I'm a terrible moderator for this because I know nothing.

而这些投资者都非常优秀。

And these are the wonderful investors.

所以我当时就想，好吧。

So I kind of like, okay.

我至少还懂得提几个问题。

I knew enough to at least ask some questions.

我参与了这次小组讨论。

And I I partake in this panel.

那些深思熟虑的投资者已经做了多年的研究。

Very thoughtful investors had done years of work.

通过那次经历我意识到，我在2023年9月20日离开时心想，根据我所听到的，可能对这家企业和埃隆本人存在误解。

And I realized just through that experience, I kinda left 09/20/2023, and I said, you know, I may have had an incorrect observation of of what this business is and and who Elon is potentially based on what I heard.

让我回归第一性原理重新理解它。

Let me go back and actually understand it from first principles.

让我真正投入研究。

Let me actually go through the work.

这件事对我来说足够有趣，值得深入研究。

It seemed interesting enough to me to actually go through it to the work.

于是我重新开始梳理。

So I go back to back.

我们研究新企业的常规流程是：从头开始阅读所有资料。

In our normal process when we start on a new business is, let's read everything from the beginning.

让我们仔细研究每一份财报、年度报告和投资者日资料。

Let's go through every earnings report, every annual report, every investor day.

以特斯拉为例，他们举办过电池日和AI日活动，你可以真正深入挖掘这些内容。

In the case of Tesla, they had a battery day and an AI day, and and you could really do a deep dive.

同时我说，其实我并不真正了解埃隆·马斯克这个人。

At the same time, I said, I don't really know who Elon Musk is.

我对他有个印象，觉得他不可投资。

I had this impression that he's uninvestable.

让我看看这是不是真的。

Let me see if that's true.

于是从那时起，我开始阅读他每一条X（推特）动态、回复和帖子，直到今天我仍在这样做。

And so at that time, I started to read every x or tweet, reply like, post, and I've done that till today.

这样就能直接理解他本人说了什么，而不是通过他人转述，让我根据原始材料自己做出判断。

So just understood not what someone said about what he said, but let me just look what he said, and and let me make that judgment from my from from just touching the source material.

在这个过程中形成的认知是——当我开始研究这家公司时，它的市值大约是7750亿美元（2023年9月我们举办小组讨论时）。

And so what formed over that time frame, when I we started to look you know, when I started to look at the business, it was about a 775,000,000,000 market cap, September 2023 when we did the panel.

在那段时间里，当你来拜访时，市值从7800亿跌到了3000多亿，股价大约139美元每股。

And over the course of that time frame when you came to visit, you know, it dropped from 780 to, you know, 300 something billion in market cap, you know, about a $139 a share.

所以这很有趣。

And so it that's interesting.

对吧？

Right?

你知道，当时公司周围乌云密布。

You you had this you know, clouds were forming around the business.

但我理解研究特斯拉过程的方式是，你知道，你有一家公司。

But the way that I would frame an understanding of the process of looking at Tesla is, you know, you have a company.

它具备护城河吗？

Does it have a moat?

它是否拥有长期顺风优势？

Does it, you know, have the secular tailwinds?

资本配置的执行历史如何？

What's the capital allocation execution history?

如果仅从流程来看，你会说他们在制造电动车方面拥有更先进的解决方案。

If you were looking at just process alone, you'd you'd you'd say, they have, you know, an evolved mousetrap in making EVs.

而这些电动车仅占全球汽车总销量的很小一部分，这是一个长期趋势。

And those EVs are a very small percent of the total, you know, cars sold globally, and that's a secular tailwind.

他们制造的车辆更便宜、更好、更快、更安全。

They make a cheaper, better, faster, safer vehicle.

明白吗？

You know?

所以仅凭核心电动车业务和资本配置历史，你就能论证它是有价值的。

So you can you can build a case just for the core EV business, history of capital allocation, that it's worth something.

它很有价值。

It's valuable.

这就是你对特斯拉作为电动车公司的基本定位。

It and you have a that's your kinda your base case of what Tesla is as an EV company.

然后你可以再看看能源业务。

And then you can look at the energy business.

能源业务主要销售Megapack和Powerwall。

The energy is selling Megapacks and Powerwalls.

Megapack是最重要的产品。

Megapacks are most important.

他们上个季度刚刚交付了10吉瓦的Megapack。

They just delivered last quarter, you know, 10 gigawatts of of mega packs.

所以这现在是一个实实在在的业务。

So this is a real business now.

我们来评估一下能源业务的价值。

Let's value the energy business.

这是一个长期趋势。

That's a secular tailwind.

好的。

Okay.

这两个因素实际上构成了估值的基础部分。

Those are two vectors that actually base a certain amount of the valuation.

显然，当你深入研究时，你会对他们为何选择这款电动车而非其他电动车、不同地区差异等因素产生兴趣。

And, obviously, you dive into that and you're interested why why their EV versus another EV, different different geographies and so forth.

第三项业务是全自动驾驶。

The third business is is full self drive.

如果你拥有一辆经过测试的车辆，你可以按月订阅服务，在车上安装自动驾驶解决方案，这项技术正在不断迭代并变得越来越好。

So if you have a a tested vehicle, you might sign up for a monthly subscription to have an autonomous driving solution in your vehicle, and that has been iterating and getting much, much better.

所以你可以将其视为一种软件。

So you could look at that as a software.

对吧？

Right?

这是软件收入。

It's a software revenue.

实际上有多少比例的车辆会采用这种订阅模式呢？

What percent of the cars out there will actually, you know, take that as a subscription.

但随着技术不断进步，这又构成了另一个增长点。

But as it gets better and better, that's another vector.

但要理解特斯拉未来五到十年的发展向量，真正重要的是其机器人出租车解决方案，这实际上是全自动驾驶技术的终极形态。

But the two things that are really important in understanding the vector of Tesla going forward over the next five and then ten years is going to be its robotaxi solution, which is the the the really solution of full self drive in being an autonomous solution.

第五个方向是人形机器人，这将是一个重大的应用产品发布，无论是作为工厂还是家庭用的消费产品，都需要从长期角度来考量。

And then the fifth leg, which is a humanoid robot, and the humanoid robot being a really big app you know, product release, consumer product release, whether that's in the factory, in the home, how to think about that over a long period of time.

如果完成所有这些布局，最终可能会获得一个长期价值被显著低估的企业。

And if you do all that work, what you might end up with is a business that's that's trading at a significant discount to its long term value.

对于每一个发展向量，你都可以评估说：好。

And each one of those vectors, you can say, okay.

我在这里有保障。

I'm protected here.

我在这里有保障。

I'm protected here.

而超越这些基础保障的回报向量，则可能从良好到非凡不等。

And then my vectors of return above that are from good to extraordinary.

这就是我们构建特斯拉长期投资假设的基本框架。

And so that's how we would build a a kind of an investment hypothesis on on Tesla over time.

那么乌云是什么？

Now what's the cloud?

特斯拉目前有什么乌云吗？

Are there any clouds in Tesla today?

嗯，你知道的，有人正在烧毁经销店，这可能是我见过的企业面临的最大乌云了。

Well, they're you know, you have people are burning down dealerships, and and this is probably the biggest amount of clouds I've ever seen of business.

这就像是美国运通的沙拉酱丑闻，巴特你知道的，把伯奇·阿瑟尔40%的资金投了进去。

This is like American Express salad dressing scandal that Butter, you know, invested 40% of Birch Athal into it.

这是一片很大、很大的乌云。

It's a big it's a big, big cloud.

对吧？

Right?

这么大一片乌云应该会让我们获得一个显著的价格折扣，无论它现在交易价是多少。

Big, big cloud should give us a price a significant price to wherever it's traded.

它目前从高点已经下跌了50%。

It's down 50% from highs right now.

所以，你知道，这是我们正在实时处理并理解的事情。

So, you know, that's something that is you know, we're real time working through it, understanding it.

这需要大量的工作。

It takes an enormous amount of work.

我无法将经验传授给没有实际做过这项工作的人，告诉他们这些就是你需要做的事情。

There's nothing I can transfer to someone who hasn't done the work to say this is something these are the things you need to do.

你必须真正去实践这些工作。

You have to actually do the work.

所以我们创建了一个智囊团，一个特斯拉智囊团，看看我们有多少人参与其中。

So we created a mastermind, a Tesla mastermind of let's see how many people we have in there.

大概有八九个人，我认为他们是全球范围内最了解这个行业、最有见地的人，我们实时共享信息。

Eight or nine, I think, are probably the most thoughtful people who understand this business globally, and and we share information real time.

所以我们实时学习、获取洞察，理解自动驾驶的演进节奏，了解人形机器人的迭代进展。

So we're real time learnings, insights, understanding the autonomous evolution and cadence, understanding where, you know, humanoid robot iterations are are coming through.

因此，你知道，这是一段有趣的旅程。

And so, you know, it's been an it's been an interesting journey.

五年后你还可以来找我。

You can have me on five years from now.

我会告诉你进展如何。

I'll let you know how how it goes.

但我们充满好奇。

But it's we are curious.

我们不断提出问题。

We're asking questions.

我们非常理解人们对本届政府的感受。

We're very empathetic to what people are feeling about this administration.

我们在做投资决策时保持非政治立场。

We're we're being nonpolitical when we we apply investment decisions.

所有这些情绪，我们都理解。

So all of those feelings, we we understand.

我们明白正在发生什么。

We understand what's happening.

但从投资考量来看，这非常有趣。

And but from an investment consideration, it's it's it's very interesting.

威廉，这就是我们想要的布局。

This is this is the setup, William, that, you know, we want to have.

三大支柱，庞大的云业务。

All three pillars, huge cloud.

我不想碰它。

I don't wanna touch it.

噢，这感觉非常不舒服。

Oh, it's it's it feels very uncomfortable.

我们会看情况发展的。

We'll see where we we'll see where we go.

你过去常提到的一点是对网络优势的兴趣，显然你过去在具有强大网络效应的公司投资上非常成功，无论是万事达卡还是其他许多最佳投资案例。

One thing you've talked about in the past is is your interest in network advantages, and you've also I mean, obviously, you've had a lot of success in the past with companies that are involved that that have these great network effects, whether it's a Mastercard or many many of your other best investments.

你也提到过图表，或者按美国人的说法——图谱。

You've also talked about graphs or as Americans would say, graphs.

你曾提到埃隆·马斯克是理解网络拓扑结构的大师——虽然我对此并不太懂——但你也讨论过星链计划，他发射了大量卫星，在约100个国家构建了这个惊人的网络。

And you've said that Elon Musk is sort of a master of understanding graphs and which is not something really I understand, but you've talked about Starlink, you know, where obviously he's putting up an enormous number of satellites and has created this incredible network in something like a 100 countries.

能否谈谈这里正在构建的架构？对于只看到那些粗犷大卡车或漂亮轿车的外行人来说，这个架构可能并不明显。

Can you talk about what the architecture is that's being created here that maybe isn't really obvious to most people just looking at, you know, these ugly kind of brutal big trucks that or or the quite handsome cars.

但实际上存在某种底层架构正在形成。像你和詹姆斯·安德森这样痴迷网络效应的人，以及你们从圣塔菲研究所获得的认知，对此会更加敏锐。

But there's actually some sort of architecture, an underlying architecture that's being created that I think people like you or James Anderson who are very interested in in network effects and what you've learned from the Santa Fe Institute and the like are much more attuned to seeing.

嗯。

Yeah.

这个问题确实非常非常重要。

So, you know, that question is is really, really important.

当你退后一步，从系统层面理解世界运作方式时，我认为万物皆可视为信息。

And and I think when you when you step back and kind of look from a systemic understanding of how the world works is I think of things as as information.

所有事物都是信息。

And so everything is information.

是集群化的信息。

It's clustered information.

信息本身想要有所作为。

The in information wants to do something.

它想要做的就是呈指数级增长。

What that wants to do is it wants to grow exponentially.

这是件非常奇怪的事。

That's a very strange thing.

那么它是如何实现指数级增长的呢？

So how does it grow exponentially?

它通过集群呈指数级增长，并减少熵值。

It grows exponentially by clustering, and it reduces entropy.

当你减少熵值时，就通过系统增加了信息量。

When you reduce entropy, you increase information through a system.

而当你通过系统增加信息量时，就创造了价值。

And when you increase information through a system, you create value.

因此我认为所有集群系统往往都在寻求创造价值。

And so I think all clustered systems are seeking to create value oftentimes.

当我从信息论的角度思考这个问题时，我意识到信息倾向于在网络或图谱上传播。

And what I realized when you look at this from a kind of an information theory perspective, that information wants to travel on networks or graphs.

节点与边——信息沿着边进行传播。

Node and edge, the travel information travels on the edge.

信息在网络或图谱中的传播越广泛，这个图谱的价值就越高。

The more it can information can travel through a network or a graph, the more valuable the graph becomes.

这意味着更低的熵会增加信息量。

Meaning, lower entropy increase increase information.

互联网是这样一个不可思议的价值创造时刻。

The Internet was this incredible value creation moment.

你知道，蒂姆·伯纳斯-李坐在欧洲核子研究中心写下了互联网的源代码，突然间，我们就有了一种方式。

You know, Tim Burgess Lee sitting at CERN writes down the source code of the Internet, and all of a sudden, we had a way.

你知道，最终演化出的是我们实际传输信息的方式。

You know, what evolved was a way that we can actually transfer information.

这创造了巨大的价值。

That created enormous amount of value.

万事达卡、Visa，你知道，我们当时没有支付转账的渠道。

Mastercard, Visa, you know, we didn't have a way to to to send payments.

好的。

Okay.

让我们创建一个图谱，为银行提供高效运作的方式。

Let's create a graph, a way for the banks to actually efficiently move.

这样金钱就成为了信息。

That was so the money was information.

如果你观察这个世界，这大概是我人生中最重要的顿悟——当我开始用图谱视角看待事物时。

And so if you look at the world, this is probably the most important epiphany I've had in my life is when I started to see things as graphs.

它具备图谱结构吗？

Does it have a graph?

它能从图谱中获益吗？

Does it benefit from a graph?

它的价值创造是基于图谱架构的吗？

Is its value creation based on graph architecture?

我当时就说，天啊，如果我专注于图表，我的记录会好得多。

And I said, jeez, if I only focus on graphs, my record would be so much better.

你知道吗？

You know?

做了这么多与图表无关的事情。

What doing all this stuff that's not graph related.

因为我回顾过去时说，天啊，万事达和维萨就是一个图表。

Because I look back and I said, jeez, you know, Mastercard and Visa was a graph.

你知道，Meta作为一个社交网络就是一个图表。

You know, Meta as a social network is a graph.

谷歌的网页排名系统实际上就是建立在图论基础上的。

Google was bay its pagering system literally was built on graph theory.

而图论可以追溯到十八世纪。

And so graph theory dates back to the seventeen hundreds.

莱昂哈德·欧拉当时正在解决一个叫做柯尼斯堡七桥的问题。

Leonard Euler, he was solving a problem called the seven bridges of Connorsburg.

他们记录下这些数学体系以便理解。

They wrote down these mathematical system to to understand.

这成为了后来图论的基础。

It became the the the basis of what became graph theory.

所以快进到现在，我在思考新的图结构会在哪里构建？

So fast forward, I kind of think where are new graphs being built?

它们会在哪里发展演变？

Where are they evolving?

而这些图结构又将在何处释放巨大的价值创造潜力？

And where are those graphs going to unleash an enormous amount of value creation?

所以当你观察特斯拉时，我认为埃隆的独特之处在于他能洞察降低熵值的能力，以及另一端的价值创造可能。

So when you look at Tesla and I think Elon is unique in being someone who sees the ability to reduce entropy and what the value creation can be on the other side.

你看，他会这样思考。

You know, he look at, okay.

这是一个——我想要创造一辆电动汽车。

This is a I wanna create an electric vehicle.

我认为它比内燃机更经济、更高效、更快速、更安全。

I think it's cheaper, better, faster, safer than an internal combustion.

但他接着思考，哦，超级充电网络的下一步是什么？

But then he kinda looks, oh, what's the next step on that supercharger network?

超级充电网络就是一个图。

Supercharger network is a graph.

对吧？

Right?

如果实现完全自动驾驶，800万辆机器人出租车可以组成一个图或网络运作，这将创造不同层次的价值。

Robotaxi, if we actually have a fully autonomous solution, 8,000,000 vehicles can be turned on to actually operate as a graph or a network, that's a different level of value creation that that that that is that's created in that moment.

然后我们每年能否生产200万辆机器人出租车加入这个网络？

And then can we build 2,000,000 robotaxis to put on the network each year?

好的。

Okay.

这很有趣。

That's interesting.

那是一个网络图。

That is a graph.

所以当我看到一个网络图时，威廉，我会停下来思考。

So when I see a graph, William, I pause and reflect.

我不只是想简单地说，哦，这里有什么可能性？

I don't I just wanna say, oh, what's possible here?

所以，你知道，我认为很多人没有意识到，当SpaceX发射猎鹰火箭超过400次时，他们每次都在部署23颗卫星。

So, you know, I don't think a lot of people appreciated that when SpaceX was launching, you know, Falcon in over 400, that they were putting up 23 satellites every time.

23颗卫星。

23 satellites.

突然间，我们就拥有了这个惊人的星座系统，也就是现在的星链，它创造了互联网连接——或者说为信息流动提供了更廉价、更优质、更快速、更安全的网络连接方案。

And all of a sudden, we had this incredible constellation, which is now Starling, which creates Internet connectivity or or one of the most cheaper, better, say, faster, safer graphs for connectivity of information to flow.

这一切正在发生。

That was happening.

我不认为所有人都意识到了这一点。

I don't think everyone appreciated.

这就是当时正在构建的。

That's what was being built.

对吧？

Right?

因此，我一直在关注图表的演变。

And so the evolution of graph is something that I look at all the time.

两年前当我开始思考这个问题时，我提出了一个疑问。

I asked a question two years ago when I started to think about this.

我当时问，下一个价值十万亿美元的图表在哪里？

I said, where's the next $10,000,000,000,000 graph?

它是什么？

What is it?

我并不知道答案，于是不断追问这个问题，直到我的朋友桑蒂说：'你得去德州奥斯汀找查理·伯戈因谈谈'。

I I didn't know what it could and I I kept asking the question, and a friend of mine, Santi, said, you gotta talk to Charlie Burgoyne in Austin, Texas.

他是个图表狂热分子。

He he's a he's a graph nut.

我说，好吧。

And I said, okay.

然后我就邀请查理来上课。

I go and I invited Charlie to come into the class.

我们上了一堂精彩的图论课。

We had an amazing class on graph theory.

但他表示，数据库架构其实并不基于图结构运作。

But he's like, you know, database architecture doesn't really operate on graphs.

它运行在SQL数据库上，所有数据都是孤立的。

It operates on SQL databases and everything's siloed.

他说，它应该作为一个图来运行，一个动态可遍历的图，可以实时访问信息。

And he's like, it should operate as a graph, a dynamic traversable graph where you can actually access information real time.

他说，那将是一个令人难以置信的价值创造时刻。

And he said, that will be an incredible value creation moment.

我说，那么，谁谁在做这件事？

I said, well, who who's doing it?

是有人在车库里打造它吗？

Is it someone building it in their garage?

或者我一直追问，是谁在构建那个图谱？

Or and I kept asking the question, who's who's building that graph?

快进到今天，那个图谱可能就是Palantir。

Fast forward to today, you know, that graph might be Palantir.

当你思考Palantir本体论的整体架构时——我们并未投资Palantir。

And when you think about the general architecture of the ontology of what Palantir is, we're not invested in Palantir.

实际上我们对其研究不多，但三个月前我突然顿悟。

We actually haven't really done much work on it, but it's it finally kinda hit me about three months ago.

我意识到：或许我寻找了二十年的企业就是Palantir。

I'm like, maybe that that business that I was looking for was being built for the last twenty years, and it's it it is Palantir.

所以这个结论还有待验证。

So TBD on that one.

是啊。

Yeah.

这就是我对图表的思考方式，每个企业对图论的应用都让我们非常感兴趣。

So that just is how I think about graphs, and it's each business's application of graph theory interests us a lot.

某种程度上，这相当于尼克·斯利普和凯·西卡里奥所说的，当他们意识到规模经济护城河是最佳商业模式时，那就是他们想要专注的方向。

So in a way, this is your equivalent of when Nick Sleep and Kei Sicario said, you know, when they figured out that Scale Economist Shed was the best business model and that that was just what they wanted to focus on.

尼克曾对我说过类似的话，是的。

And Nick said to me something like, yeah.

一旦你有了这样的想法，你就会意识到这可能是你一生中最好的想法，而其他一切，用他的话说——尽管我们过去会消音但现在不会——都不值一提。

Once you have an idea like that, you realize that might be the best idea you've had in your whole life and everything else, as he would put it, using language that we won't beep even though we in the past have.

他说相比之下其他一切看起来都逊色不少。

He said everything else looks a bit shit in comparison.

是不是类似这种情况：你突然有了重大发现，然后恍然大悟‘原来世界是这样运作的’？

Is that sort of what's happened here that you've come up with this kind of major revelation and you're like, oh, that's how the world works?

你知道‘全是乌龟’这个说法吗？

You know the expression, it's turtles all the way down?

其实是全是图，从头到尾都是图。

It it's graphs all the it's graphs all the way down.

当你从信息论的角度看问题时，这在某种程度上是成立的。

And it's when you when you see things kind of from a viewpoint of information theory, it's kind of true.

就像，下一个能解锁价值创造的图表会是什么？

It's like, what is going to be the next graph that's going to unlock the next amount of value creation?

如果你持续观察并提出这个问题，这种连接性，这种更无缝的信息流动，这种熵的减少。

If you continue to look and ask that question, that connectivity, that allowing more flow of information more seamlessly, that reduction of entropy.

是的。

Yeah.

它几乎超越了语言的范畴。

It it's a it it almost is above language.

对吧？

Right?

这很难表达，但你能感受到它、看到它。

It it's hard to express, but it's you feel it and you see it.

而我开始看到GraphIQ。

And I I started to see GraphIQ.

比如，谁天生具备GraphIQ，能将其视为洞察力的第二层色彩？

Like, who has a natural GraphIQ where they actually can see this as almost a second shade of of insight?

他们与世界互动的方式就是通过图视角来观察。

And it's the way they operate in the world is seeing by way of a graph lens.

所以，你知道，我正处于这种顿悟的早期阶段，希望沿途能找到更多志同道合的伙伴，发现那些也看到这一点的人，并识别出具备这些特质的新兴企业。

And so, you know, I'm in the earlier stages of this epiphany, so I'm hoping I'll gain more more kind of comrades along the way as I kinda, you know, find others that have kind of seen this and identify businesses that are kind of emerging that share these attributes.

去年秋天在古德伍德时，多亏弗雷德里克·布莱克福德的邀请，我们所有人聚在一起，我和尼克·斯利普交谈过。

When I spoke to Nick Sleep when we were all together at Goodwood last fall, thanks to Frederic Blackford who invited us all.

那次小组讨论时，我后来问尼克为什么他很难找到第四家像好市多、亚马逊和伯克希尔那样优秀的公司——这些都是他和萨克斯的绝佳投资。

This when we had the panel, I I was asking Nick afterwards why it had been so hard for him to find a fourth company that was as great as Costco, Amazon, and Berkshire, which were he and Saks, great investments.

他大致谈到了这有多困难，以及他曾考虑过特斯拉。

And he sort of talked about how difficult it was and how he had looked at Tesla.

他当时的反应是‘嗯’。

And he was like, yeah.

这确实很有趣，但这家伙有点古怪，对吧？

It's really interesting, but this guy's a little bit odd, isn't he?

尼克比我们认识的几乎所有人都要脚踏实地得多，你知道，这就是典型的英式低调说法。

And Nick is much more down to earth than almost everyone we know, and he's just you know, it's a very English understatement.

这家伙有点古怪，我不确定这是否是我想要合作的那种人。

The guy's a bit odd, and I I don't know if this is the kind of guy I wanna partner with.

所以他就这么把它归入了'太难'的那一堆。

And so he just sort of kinda went in the too hard pile.

所以我在想，你是如何看待埃隆这种天才与问题并存的人物，因为他既是划时代的历史人物，同时又极具争议性。

And so I'm wondering, like, how you think about the genius and the problem that is Elon because he is a kind of epochal historic figure and at the same time incredibly polarizing.

我看着这些事情，比如，你知道，事后他发帖谈论他现在改名为薇薇安的跨性别孩子时，居然说他的儿子泽维尔已经死了。

And I I look at stuff like, I look at things like, you know, I mean, the, you know, the the ex post when he was posting about his transgender child now called Vivian and and literally said, my son, Xavier, died.

我看着这些，简直不敢相信。

And, you know, I look at that, and I'm like, oh my god.

你知道，这得是什么样的怪人才会...

Like, you know, what sort of a mutant would sort of you know?

因为，你看，我的意思是...

Because I I you know, I mean, look.

我是两个孩子的慈爱父亲。

I'm a loving father of two kids.

我觉得，我的孩子们几乎不可能做出任何让我不再爱他们或认为他们不好的事。

I'm like, there's pretty much nothing my kids could do that would make me not love them and think they were great.

同样地，就像他说的那样，我们整个周末都在把美国国际开发署的援助物资扔进碎木机。

And likewise, I mean, the whole thing where he was like, we spent the weekend, you know, feeding USAID into the wood chopper.

我就想，等等。

And I'm like, wait a second.

比如，我最近听到阿图·葛文德在谈论他曾担任高级职位的美国国际开发署。

Like, I heard Ashok Gawande recently sort of, you know, talking about USAID where he'd been, you know, very senior.

他说，'好吧，将有数十万人因此丧生'。

And he's like, well, hundreds of thousands of people will die because of that.

我看着这些，心想，也许这就是问题的一部分——那些能理解图表、系统和网络的人可能在情感层面有所缺失。

And I look at that, and I'm like, well, maybe maybe that's a maybe that's a part of it that maybe the sort of person who can understand graphs and systems and networks maybe has something kinda missing in emotional terms.

我不知道，我也从未见过他。

I don't know, and I've never met him.

但我只是好奇，像这样一位显然才华横溢，但在某些方面又似乎有明显缺陷的人，该如何做出 nuanced（ nuanced 保留英文，中文常直接使用）的评价。

But I'm just wondering, like, how you how you get a sort of nuanced appraisal of this guy who's obviously, like, really brilliant, but kind of, like, in some ways, kind of seems pretty defective.

是啊。

Yeah.

我觉得彼得·考夫曼——他是我们非常亲密的朋友，从他身上我们学到了很多——他有个很棒的心智模型，他称之为...就像你看着一个橙子，剥开时你会想保留果肉，扔掉果皮。

I think Peter Kaufman, who's a a dear friend and and we learned so much from Peter, he has a wonderful mental model that he calls, like he calls it the you know, it's like, you know, if you look at an orange, and when you peel an orange, you're like, you know, you wanna keep the the meat of the orange, and you wanna throw away the peels.

这是他用来研究历史上各类人物时采用的心智模型。

It's his mental model for studying kind of everyone in history.

每个人都有缺点，卡内基、洛克菲勒，你知道的，随便举例子。

There's always peels with everyone, Carnegie and Rockefeller and, you know, you name it.

埃隆当然也有缺点。

And Elon has peals for sure.

对很多人来说——我非常理解这点——这些缺点现在确实让人情绪激动。

For for many people, and I'm very empathetic to this, those peals are are are really emotional right now.

所以我并不是来为他做过的事或人们对他行为的看法辩护，因为我不够了解情况。

And so I'm not here to defend anything he's done or the perception of anything that he's doing because I don't know enough.

但根据我自己的观察，我看到的是一个深切关心人类的人，这一点我是通过追踪他的行为得出的结论。

But I I do from my own observation, you know, I see someone that that cares deeply about humanity, and I see that because of, you know, following his his behaviors.

我认为他深信自己正在做的事情极其重要。当他审视当今社会、国家的整体状况时，我们需要做出某些决策来纠正航向。

I think he believes that he's doing something that is is really important When he's looking at the holistic view of where we are today as a society, as a country, there are certain decisions we need to make to kinda right the ship.

而所谓的纠正航向，指的是面对37万亿美元的债务。

And right the ship is, you know, $37,000,000,000,000 in in debt.

我们的预算赤字高达2万亿美元。

We have a budget deficit of $2,000,000,000,000.

这些都是无可争议、必须解决的问题。

These are inarguable things that that have to be addressed.

其中一部分措施包括一定程度上的支出紧缩和收入增加，不是吗？

And and part of that is some level of austerity on spending and then some level of revenue augmentation and not to you know?

我们今天已经在关税问题上看到了这种波动性。

We've seen the the volatility of that today in tariffs.

对吧？

Right?

因此当这种药方被实施时，它非常不受欢迎。

And so as this medicine is applied, it it it's quite unpopular.

所有这类药方都不受欢迎，尤其是考虑到我们当前的处境。

All medicine in these things are unpopular, particularly given the situation that we're in.

而且，你知道，所以他成了支出削减、紧缩政策的代言人，这是个非常不受欢迎的立场。

And and, you know, so he's the face of of spending cuts, of doge, and and that's a very unpopular position to be in.

他做的事算爱国吗？

Is it a patriotic thing he's doing?

有可能。

Potentially.

我们拭目以待。

We will see.

我认为看起来他正在从那个角色的聚光灯下退场，把重心重新放回商业上。

And and I think what it looks like is that I think he's stepping back from being the spotlight of that role and focusing, you know, back on the businesses.

所以，根据我作为商业运营者的观察，以及过去几年对他的关注，我看到的是一个认真负责、深切关心做正确之事的人。

And and so, you know, it seems that that is a but what I've seen from a a business operator and from some of the things just following him for the last couple years, I see a conscientious person that that cares deeply about doing the right thing.

是的。

Yeah.

而且你知道，听着。

And I you know, look.

我并不想把自己的偏见强加在这些事情上。

I'm not trying to impose my prejudices on these things.

我之所以有所保留，其中一个原因是我认识几位朋友，他们重仓投资了特斯拉，而我恰好持有几家对冲基金。

And one one reason why I'm kinda I kinda have a hedge here, which is I like the fact that I own a couple of hedge funds around my friends who both have invested heavily in Tesla.

这样某种程度上对冲了我自身的偏见，我很喜欢这种状态。

So there's a sort of hedge against my own bias, and I kinda like that position.

我不希望自己的投资决策被半生不熟的偏见和盲点所左右。

I don't I don't wanna have my investments driven by my half baked biases and blind spots and the like.

我认为这引出了一个有趣的观点——你曾提到要痴迷于提出更好的问题。

And I I think that gets us something kinda interesting, which is you've talked about being obsessed with asking better questions.

你还说过：你是在逼近答案，还是活在问题中？

And you said at one point, are you converging on an answer or living in a question?

我认为这种'活在问题中'的理念——保持开放心态，接受我们可能犯错、事物可能充满矛盾与复杂性的事实，在投资和生活中都极其重要。

And I think this idea of living in a question, like being open to the possibility that we're wrong and that things are paradoxical and complex is really, really important both in investing and life.

我想请你谈谈这对你意味着什么，这种'活在问题中'的理念，以及它如何应用于像解读埃隆·马斯克或特斯拉这类智力难题。

And I I wonder if you could just talk a little bit about what that means to you, this idea of of living in a question and how that applies to these these intellectual problems like solving an Elon Musk or a Tesla.

是的。

Yeah.

不。

No.

我觉得这非常棒。

I think that's that's wonderful.

我把问题看作一种波函数。

So I think about a a question as kind of a wave function.

对吧？

Right?

你并不一定想用答案来坍缩这个波函数。

You don't wanna collapse the wave function with an answer necessarily.

你希望波函数保持开放状态。

You wanna you want the wave function to be open.

你要保持好奇心。

You wanna be curious.

你要不断测试验证。

You wanna be testing.

这就是为什么假设这个概念给人感觉是对的。

That's why the idea of a hypothesis is just kind of it's kind of the right feeling.

对吧？

Right?

这是目前证据权重所指向的结论。

It's it's it's this is something that the weight of the evidence suggests today.

让我们看看明天的证据会指向什么方向。

Let's see what the weight of the evidence suggests tomorrow.

所以一切都像全息图或波函数，我们只是沿着好奇和提问的轨道前行。

And so everything is kind of this hologram or this wave function where we're just on a railroad of curiosity, of question asking.

我非常喜欢道格拉斯·亚当斯的书，《银河系漫游指南》，你知道的，这本书的精妙之处在于，那个终极问题的答案是42。

I love Douglas Adams' book, you know, Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy, where, you know, the kind of the the sweet spot of that book is where, you know, the the answer to the ultimate question is 42.

但点睛之笔在于：那么问题到底是什么呢？

But the punch line is, but what's the question?

我认为这是理解宇宙的绝妙方式——让我们不断提出更深层次的问题。

And I think that's such a wonderful way think about understanding the universe is let's continue to ask deeper questions.

但通常我们需要一个驱动力来提出更好的问题。

But we need a force function oftentimes for better questions.

我认为所有人都会陷入停滞状态，整个国家也会如此。

I think all of us get stasis, and I think we get stasis as a country.

当企业停止追问更深更难的问题时，我们就会陷入发展停滞。

We get stasis as a business when we're not asking deeper deeper, harder questions.

比如：我们该去火星吗？

Like, should we go to Mars?

我不知道。

I don't know.

但我知道尝试实现它的推动力。

But I know the force function of trying to do it.

那个提问的过程，所需的材料科学，通过这种推动力将会产生如此多的发现，我们作为一个物种将在许多不同方面得到进化。

That that question asking, that material science that's required, there's so much discovery that will happen through that force function that we will, you know, evolve as a species in in many different ways.

因此我在许多不同的系统中看到这一点：无论是写书、写年度信函，还是创造培养新习惯的挑战，这些推动力都能开启一个全新的学习、发现和洞察的层面。

And so I see this across many, many different way systems where the forcing function of writing a book, of writing an annual letter, of creating a challenge to nurture new habits, the forcing function opens up a whole level of learning, discovery, of insight.

所以这就是那个——如果我需要筛选新员工，那将是我首要考虑的特质。

And so that's the that's that curious I if I were to to screen, you know, for a new employee, that's the number one thing I'm looking for.

这个人是否充满好奇心？

Is this person curious?

那种天生就渴望与我同行，共同提出更好问题并发现精彩事物的内在好奇心。

Like, innately curious that wants to go on a journey with me to ask better questions and and and find, you know, find cool things.

这大概就是我试图在身边建立的朋友圈——他们也都像你一样在提出绝妙的问题。

And and that's kind of the tribe I've tried to build around me of friends that that they're also asking great questions like you.

当你进入一家公司试图评估时，显然你总是在提问，试图弄清楚管理层是否称职，他们是否在理性配置资本等等。

When when you go into a company and you're trying to figure out obviously, you're you're you're always asking questions and trying to figure out whether whether management is any good, whether they're allocating capital rationally and the like.

你曾说过，我记得是在2015年致股东信里写道，企业唯一真正可持续的长期竞争优势在于其文化。

And you said, I think it was in a 2015 letter to shareholders, you wrote the only truly sustainable long term competitive advantage lies in the culture of a business.

所以当你实地考察管理层和评估企业文化时，从非常实际的角度出发，你会提出哪些有助于判断的问题？

So when you're going in and you're trying to assess the management and assess the culture, what are the sort of questions that you try to ask in very practical terms that are that are helpful to you to figure out?

比如，他们的言论是否真的与执行一致？

Like, does their talk actually match the execution?

这里是否存在一致性？

Is there consistency here?

你具体会问些什么？

What are you asking?

是的。

Yeah.

关于企业文化，我意识到我所寻找的是企业所运用的变化速率和学习速率。

What I've realized with culture, what I'm looking for in culture is the rate of change, the rate of learning that is being employed in the business.

因此当你观察一家卓越企业时，会发现其学习速度和迭代速度都非常快。

And so when you look at an extraordinary company, is the rate of learning and iteration is very high.