RWH066：与霍华德·马克斯、尼玛·谢赫和威廉·格林探讨基本真理

哦，不。

Oh, no.

我不会太多地去想它。

I don't think about it that much.

我只是试着去做，你知道的，这些事情都有点反直觉，而且相当不合逻辑。

And I just try to do you know, all these things are kind of a little bit counterintuitive and a lot little illogical.

我只是试着专注于当下，去做好那些将来能过得去的事情。

I just try to think of laboring in the here and now to buy things that are gonna do okay.

那么你会说，是的。

Well, then you'd say, yeah.

但霍华德，要判断一个人是否能过得好，难道你不必须对未来有所看法吗？

But Howard, in order to know whether someone's gonna do okay, don't you have to have a view of the future?

是的。

Yeah.

嗯，某种程度上确实如此。

Well, you kinda do.

但所以，再次强调，别以为你什么都知道。

But so, again, don't think you know everything.

别以为你就是对的。

Don't think you have it right.

你引用了埃尔罗伊·邓普西的话。

You've quoted Elroy Dempsey.

未来并不是一个单一确定的事物，即使你足够聪明，也无法完全预测它会如何发展，然后它就会按你的预期实现，让你显得正确。

The future is not a set single thing that if you're smart enough, you can figure it out what it's gonna be, and it's gonna materialize and make you right.

未来是一个概率分布。

It's a probability distribution.

每件事都有一系列可能性，无论是明年的GDP增长、明年的通货膨胀、下一届选举谁会赢、下一届世界大赛谁会夺冠，还是我们是否会迎来地缘政治和平，诸如此类的事情。

It's a range of possibilities in each thing, whether it's GDP growth next year or inflation next year, or who's gonna win in the next election, who's gonna win the next world series, or or, you know, whether we're gonna have a geopolitical peace or or any of these things.

最终只会有一件事发生，但很多事都可能发生。

Only one thing will happen, but many things can.

你应该接受这一点。

And you should accept that.

你应该接受这一点：它为这个方程引入了不确定性，你不应该对某一种结果形成确定性并重注押注，除非你拥有特殊的专业知识，而很少有人具备这种能力。

You should accept that it introduces an uncertainty into the equation, and you shouldn't form a certainty around one outcome and bet heavily on it unless you have special expertise, which very few people do.

所以我认为，谦逊是避免陷入困境的一种绝佳方式。

So I think that humility is a, you know, is a great way to stay out of juggle.

我曾经在某个备忘录中写过我最喜欢的幸运饼干。

And and I once wrote in some memo or other about my favorite fortune cookie.

你可能也读过这个。

You probably read that one too.

但它说，谨慎的人很少能写出伟大的诗歌。

But it said that the the cautious seldom or write great poetry.

每个人都要为自己做出决定。

Every person has to decide for themselves.

我是想尝试写出伟大的诗歌，如果我的判断正确就能致富，还是想避免犯错，确保即使我的判断错误也能过得去？

Do I wanna try to write great poetry and get rich if my bench are right, or do I wanna avoid erring and be sure that I'll do okay if my bets are wrong?

这是一种选择。

It's a choice.

你不可能两者兼得。

You can't have both.

或者你可以尝试两者都做，但你必须侧重其中一方。

Or you can try to do both, but you have to put your emphasis on one or the other.

你不可能同时侧重两者。

You can't emphasize both at the same time.

所以我认为，这是一种心态，我认为大多数人应该采纳这种心态。

And and and and so I think that this is, you know, this is a matter of mindset that I think most people should adopt.

生活是不确定的。

And life is uncertain.

未来是不确定的。

The future is uncertain.

投资是不确定的。

Investing is uncertain.

你是要追求赢家，还是要尽量避免输家？

Are you gonna go for winners, or are you gonna try to avoid losers?

好的。

Alright.

这是霍华德·马克斯在我们去年十二月的采访中说的话。

That's Howard Marks again talking in our interview back in December.

这段话非常特别，我总觉得人们很容易忽视它的相关性和重要性。

It's kind of an extraordinary clip, this, and it I I think it's quite easy to miss the relevance of it, the importance of it.

但让我印象深刻的是，这段话精辟地总结了一位伟大投资导师兼当代最杰出投资者之一的实用智慧。

But what strikes me is that it's an absolutely remarkable distillation of practical wisdom from one of the great investment teachers, as well as one of the great investors of our time.

如果你仔细分析一下，这么短的一段话里竟包含了如此丰富、平衡而睿智的建议。

And so if you actually break it down, there's so much incredibly wise balanced advice here in such a short space.

所以，如果我回想起他说的那些话，没错，他说：要做一个长期投资者。

So if I think back at some of the things he said there, right, he said, be a long term investor.

不要在市场狂热时买入。

Don't buy things when things are exciting.

不要在资产暴跌时抛售。

Don't sell things when they're getting pummeled.

所以要保持情绪平稳。

So keep an even keel emotionally.

不要过度活跃。

Don't be hyperactive.

不要一直不停地交易。

Don't trade all of the time.

要明白，你长期表现良好的原因是经济在增长，企业盈利能力在提升。

Understand that the reason you'll do well over time is that economies grow and companies improve their profitability.

因此，你正在与这一强大趋势保持一致：随着经济成长，企业变得更加高效和盈利。

So you're aligning yourself with this very powerful force as economies grow and companies become more productive and more profitable.

所以你要尽早搭上这趟顺风车，然后一直坐着，别去干扰它。

So you wanna get on that gravy train early and then stay on it and don't tamper with it.

这就要求你控制好情绪，因为你只是想避免破坏它。

So that requires you to have your emotions under control because you're just trying not to mess with it.

同时，你也要避免过度冒险，确保自己能生存下来，因为你不想因为鲁莽而被踢出这个游戏，因为你所依托的这种基本力量本身已经极其强大。

And you're also at the same time trying not to overreach and making sure you survive because you don't wanna knock yourself out of the game because this basic force that you're riding is in itself so powerful.

所以你实际上并不需要成为一个能够精准选股、精准择时的顶尖投资者。

So you don't actually need to be an outperforming investor who picks exactly the right stocks and times the market or anything like that.

你需要做的，是顺应这种长期向上的强大趋势，不要被市场淘汰。

You need to align yourself with this very powerful upward trajectory over time and not get knocked out of the game.

然后我认为，他有一个非凡的坦诚，那就是他其实并不怎么思考未来。

And then I think there's that extraordinary admission he makes that he doesn't really think about the future.

他说他真正做的事情，我非常喜欢这句话。

That he says really what he's doing, and I love this phrase.

我认为他原话是说，他只是在当下努力购买那些表现尚可的东西。

I think the exact phrase was he said, He's laboring in the here and now to buy things that will do okay.

这种态度非常谦逊。

And there's something very modest about that.

我的意思是，事实上他取得了非凡的成功。

I mean, the truth is he's done extraordinarily well.

我的记忆中，在金融危机期间，他和布鲁斯·卡尔什所做的投资大约赚了90亿美元。

I mean, if I remember rightly during the financial crisis, the bets that he and Bruce Karsh made basically made something like $9,000,000,000.

所以有时候情况会比那更戏剧化一些。

So sometimes it is a little bit more dramatic than that.

但能够持续地活在当下，保持理智，努力做正确的事，购买被低估的资产，不被人们的狂热所左右，也不在他人恐惧时陷入绝望或害怕，更不妄自以为无所不知——这种能力几乎有种平凡的可贵。

But there's something almost prosaic about the ability to keep showing up in the here and now, trying to be sensible, trying to do the right thing, trying to buy stuff that's undervalued, not letting yourself get carried away by whatever people are overexcited about, and not getting despondent or fearful when other people are fearful, and not deluding yourself into thinking that you know everything.

因此，他基本的观点是，未来是一系列可能性的概率分布。

So his basic idea that the future is a range of possibilities, of probabilities, it's a probability distribution.

同样重要的是，你根本无法预知GDP增长、通胀率、选举结果、是战是和、是否会爆发大流行病，或者其他任何事情，因为可能发生的事情太多了。

It's also really important that you have no idea what's gonna happen with GDP growth or inflation rates or elections or whether there's gonna be war of peace or pandemics or whatever there's gonna be, and many things can happen.

所以，仅仅因为某件事发生了，并不意味着其他所有可能的历史路径就不会存在。

So just because one thing happens doesn't mean that there couldn't have been all of these other alternative histories.

正如他所说，你必须接受这种不确定性。

And so as he put it, you have to accept that uncertainty.

你必须认识到，我们所处的世界就是如此，不要自我欺骗，也不要承担过度的风险。

You have to recognize that this is the type of world we're living in and not delude yourself and take excessive risk.

我认为，除非你真的拥有特殊的专业知识，除非有理由——就像埃德·索普曾经对我说过的那样——你确实拥有某种优势，否则你很可能并没有，所以不要重仓押注。

And I think also that idea that unless you really have a special expertise, unless there's a reason, as Ed Thorpe once said to me, for you really to believe that you have an edge, You probably don't, so don't bet heavily.

因此，谦逊是避免麻烦的关键要素，必须认清自己的局限并坚守其中。

And so this idea that humility is a really vital ingredient of staying out of trouble is critical, to understand your limitations and stay within them.

而且要明白，正如先锋基金的创始人杰克·博格尔曾经对我说的，你不必非得出色。

And to understand that, as as Jack Bogle, the founder of Vanguard once said to me, you you don't have to be great.

对吧？

Right?

只要你能在人生早期就早早入场，量入为出，持续投入，并长期坚持，就能取得非常好的成绩。

You can still do really well just by getting in early, early in your life, living within your means, continuing to add to the pot, and staying in the game for a very long time.

这样就已经足够好了。

That's kind of good enough.

你不需要多么非凡。

You don't have to be extraordinary.

因此，霍华德的提醒也很重要：你需要了解自己的性格，弄清楚你真正追求的是快速致富，还是更倾向于保守策略。

And so also Howard's reminder, think, is really important that you need to understand your own personality and understand whether what you're trying to emphasize is getting rich quickly or whether you wanna be more defensive.

所以你要么追求大量赢家，要么努力避免输家。

So either you're going for lots of winners or you're trying to avoid losers.

因此，自我认知和自我觉察。

And so self knowledge, self awareness.

因此，你在这里看到的是，经过数十年观察市场、观察人们自我毁灭后提炼出的非凡实用智慧。

And so what you're seeing here is this really remarkable distillation of practical wisdom accrued over many decades of watching the market, watching people blow themselves up.

因此，这些内容没有一个是非黑即白的。

And so the trick, none of this stuff none of this stuff is really clear cut.

对吧？

Right?

正如他所说，这些事情的‘如何’很难把握，即你究竟该如何应用它们。

It's not, you know, as he said, the the how of these things is difficult, how you actually apply them.

但理解这些基本原理至关重要。

But understanding these basic principles is so important.

因此，我认为，真正停下来静心体会、理解他为我们提供的这种智慧提炼有多么强大，是极其有帮助的。

And so I think just really trying to pause and internalize this to understand what a powerful distillation of wisdom he's providing us with is just hugely helpful.

因此，从某种意义上说，这正是我说霍华德能让我脚踏实地的原因。

And so this is in a way, like, this is why I say that Howard serves to ground me.

他就像在高速公路上帮你保持方向，让你不会自毁，不会做出太冲动的举动，也不会做太愚蠢的事。

It's like he's keeping you straight on the highway so that you don't blow yourself up, so you don't do anything too rash, so you don't do anything too stupid.

是的，也许你不会以每小时125英里的速度飞驰，享受地球上最刺激的旅程，但只要你遵循他所提到的经过时间检验、实战验证的原则，你就能抵达目的地。

And yes, maybe you're not gonna drive 125 miles an hour and have the most exciting ride on earth, but you'll make it to your destination if you follow the kind of time tested, battle tested principles that he's talking about.

所以，是的，对我来说，真正的挑战在于，当听到这些常常听起来近乎陈词滥调的伟大真理时，不要让我的眼神变得呆滞。

So, yeah, so for me, really, the challenge is not to have my eyes glaze over when I hear these great truths that often feel almost platitudinous.

真正重要的是要将它们铭记于心，并付诸实践。

It's really to take them to heart and live by them.

接下来我们要听的片段，是我与一位非常睿智的年轻对冲基金经理尼玛·沙耶格的访谈。

The next clip we're gonna listen to is from an interview that I did with a wonderfully thoughtful young hedge fund manager named Nima Shayegh.

尼玛在加利福尼亚经营一家小型投资公司，名为鲁米合伙公司，以十三世纪的波斯诗人和苏菲神秘主义者鲁米命名。

Nima runs a small investment firm in California, which is named Rumi Partners after the thirteenth century poet and Sufi mystic, Rumi.

和霍华德一样，尼玛也在试图洞察投资的本质，但他采取的方式却截然不同。

And like Howard, Nima's trying to penetrate to the essence of investing, but he does it in a very different way.

尼玛通过寻找少数卓越的企业，深入理解它们的核心本质，然后长期持有它们来进行投资。

Nima invests by finding a handful of extraordinary businesses and trying to understand their deep essence and then holding them for a long time.

所以在这个片段中，虽然时间比较长，大约十分钟，但它非常精彩，充满了洞见与智慧。

So in this clip, which is relatively long, it's about ten minutes, but it's a beautiful clip and it's just full of insight and wisdom.

他在谈论超越数字、超越可量化数据的重要性，去洞察那些让事物真正卓越的深层真相。

He's talking about the importance of looking beyond the numbers, looking beyond what we can quantify to see some deeper truth about what makes things truly exceptional.

所以，不管怎样，我们来听一下。

So anyway, let's have a listen.

你上了加州大学洛杉矶分校，然后学习了数学和经济学。

And you went to UCLA and then studied mathematics and economics.

某种程度上，正如你过去向我解释的那样，你有一部分思维偏向于非左脑主导，你相信只要掌握了数学、统计学和经济学这些技能，就能理解现实。

So in some way, there was a part of you that was kind of very less left hemisphere oriented, as you've explained it to me in in the past, and sort of convinced that if you could master things like maths and statistics and economics, you'd have these skill sets to understand reality.

而我的感觉是，你逐渐意识到，仅仅依赖数字的舒适感和逻辑推理是不够的。

And my sense is that you gradually came to realize that actually comfort in numbers and logical reasoning and the like was not gonna cut it.

你能谈谈这种转变的过程吗？

What can you talk a little bit about that evolution?

是的。

Yeah.

当然。

Absolutely.

对我来说，这一切最终凝聚成一个关于枝干与根系的理念。

The way that it's actually come together for me is this idea of branches and roots.

鲁米有一句我非常喜欢的话，他说：也许你正在枝干间寻找那些只存在于根系中的东西。

Rumi has this quote that I love where he says, maybe you're searching among the branches for what only appears in the roots.

我认为这句话对投资者来说具有深远的意义。

And I think that that quote has a lot of significance for investors.

当我反思整个投资行业时，我不仅在自己身上看到了这一点，也在整个行业普遍中看到了这一点。

And when I just reflect on the investment industry broadly, I noticed it both in myself, but I noticed it in the industry in general.

那就是：如果你能更精确一些，如果你能量化现实，如果你能衡量事物，如今的行业已经彻底偏向了量化方向。

And it's this idea that if you can just get more precise, if you can quantify reality, if you can sort of measure things, the industry today has got has swung so far in the direction of quantification.

你可以在专家访谈、信用卡数据和网络爬虫技术中看到这一点。

You see it in, you know, expert calls and credit card data and web scraping technology.

今天我们拥有极其强大的工具，能够测量并试图预测正在发生的事情。

We have these extremely powerful tools today that can measure and try to predict what's going on.

但正如过去一个世纪的大部分时间那样，几乎没有人能长期保持极高的资本回报率。

But it's still the case as it's been for much of the last century that almost no one compounds capital at very high returns for all that long.

尽管有这些先进的工具，尽管有巨大的激励，尽管付出了巨大努力，但要做到这一点依然非常困难。

Despite the fancy tools, despite, you know, having tons of incentives, despite working really hard, it's just still very difficult.

因此，我对此进行反思，并想知道我们究竟忽略了什么？

And so I reflect on this, and I wonder what is it that we're missing?

我们究竟忽略了什么？

What is it that we're missing?

我究竟忽略了什么？

What is it that I'm missing?

因为我最初是个非常注重技术、专注于数学和量化的人，认为一切都要基于理性和科学。

Because I started out as being really technical and really focused on mathematics and quantification and if everything is about reason and science.

当然，但我觉得自己只是迷失在了枝叶中，而错过了根部。

And sure, but it felt like I was just lost in the branches and I missed the roots.

那么，关于投资，枝叶和根部究竟指的是什么？

And so what is it about What what is what are the branches and roots as it relates to investing?

所以，那些枝节是每个人都能看到和衡量的东西。

So the branches are what everyone can see and measure.

是上个季度的利润率。

It's last quarter's margins.

是本周的用户增长。

It's this week's unit growth.

是下个月的通胀数据。

It's next month's inflation print.

这些都是可量化的信息，却脱离了现实，缺乏背景。

You know, it's all of these these quantifiable pieces of information that are devoid of reality, devoid of context.

那么，什么是根呢？

And so what would be the roots?

企业的根是所有那些对未来发展经济状况具有因果作用的定性因素。

The roots of a business are all of these qualitative forces that are causal to the future economics of a business.

你知道，露·辛普森总是说，所有投资都是在弄清楚一家企业的未来经济状况。

You know, Lou Lou Simpson used to always say that all investing is figuring out the future economics of a business.

这个说法听起来可能很简单，容易被一带而过，但实际上它设定了一个极高的标准。

And that statement might sound easy enough to just blow right past it, but it actually creates an extraordinarily high bar.

大多数投资者往往专注于当前的经济状况，也就是当前的枝叶。

You know, most investors tend to fixate on the current economics, the current branches.

他们紧盯当下的现实。

They fixate on the present reality.

但偶尔，你也能对一家企业未来的经济前景产生深刻的理解。

But every once in a while, you can get a really deep sense for what the future economics of a business might be.

而在这些情况下，通常是因为你对那些根本因素有了把握。

And in those cases, it's usually the case that you have a sense for the roots.

那么，什么是根本因素呢？

And so what are the roots?

根本因素可能包括管理层的动机、公司文化、产品质量以及与客户的契合度。

The roots could be something like the motivation of management, the culture of the company, the quality of the product, the alignment with customers.

这些因素在任何电子表格中都看不到。

None of that shows up on any spreadsheet.

你无法建模，也无法量化，但它们实际上是企业最真实的部分。

You can't model it, you can't quantify it, but they're actually the most real parts of a business.

因此，对我来说，问题变成了：如果根才是真正重要的，为什么没有人专注于它们呢？

So the question to me became, if the roots are what truly matter, why isn't everyone focused on them?

从我的角度来看，挑战同时也是机遇在于，根需要一些直觉。

And the challenge from my perspective and actually the opportunity is that the roots require some intuition.

所以，这并不仅仅是提高Excel技能的问题。

So it wasn't all about getting better at Excel.

而说投资股票市场需要直觉，我认为会让很多人感到不安，因为它显得主观、模糊，而且很难传达。

And suggesting that investing in the stock market requires intuition, I think makes many people uncomfortable because it feels subjective and it feels squishy and it feels very hard to communicate.

但正是这些位于财务数据上游的、无形的定性因素，才是其他人所关注的。

But it's precisely those qualitative invisible factors that live upstream from the financials that everyone else is sort of focused on.

正如你提到的，你写了这篇《根与枝》的文章。

As you mentioned, you wrote this piece, Roots and Branches.

我认为它最初是你在2023年可能于克里斯·贝克老师的课上所做的演讲，后来变成了你的股东信。

And I I think it was originally a speech that you gave at Columbia, maybe in our friend Chris Beck's class in 2023, but then it became a shareholder letter of yours.

所以我在这两个地方都读过。

So I I I've read it in both places.

你在其中引用了佩西格关于前理性认知的论述，你还谈到了这种把握本质的能力是超越理性的。

And you quoted in there, I think, Persig talking about pre intellectual awareness and this you talked about this ability to apprehend essence being suprarational.

你能谈谈这种‘超越理性’的感觉吗？

Can you talk a little bit about that sense that it's kind of suprarational?

其中确实存在某种前理性的成分。

There's something there's something pre intellectual in it.

我有时也和克里斯·贝格讨论过这一点，他有一种感觉，即我们具备一种具身化的能力，能够判断某事是否真实。

It's something I sometimes have talked about with Chris Begg as well that he has this sense that we have an embodied ability to tell whether something is true or not.

比如，当你见到一位首席执行官，试图决定是否信任这个人时。

Like, when you when you meet a CEO and you're trying to decide, do I trust this person?

这个人是否真正正直？

Is this person actually honorable or not?

所以我认为，在大多数情况下，企业的根本因素太难判断了。

So I think that in most cases, the roots of a business are too hard to tell.

这并不明显。

It's sort of it's not it's not obvious.

我认为首先要明白的是，只有在情况非常明确时，你才应该行动。

And I think the first thing to note is that you only really wanna swing when it's pretty obvious.

在巴菲特的说法中，你知道，没有好球被算作好球。

In in Buffett's parlance, you know, there's no called strikes.

但有些情况下，你可以相当有把握地判断一家企业的根本所在。

But there are some cases where you can know with some confidence what the roots of a business are.

在波斯语中，我们有一个非常古老的表达，可能已经有一千多年的历史了。

And in Persian, we have this very old expression that is probably more than a thousand years old.

它的字面意思是‘心之眼’。

And it is, literally translates to eye of the heart.

这个说法认为，心远不止是泵血的器官。

And it's this idea that the heart is more than merely this organ that pumps our blood.

它实际上是一种感知能力，能够把握非物质的真理。

It's actually a faculty of perception, and it's capable of grasping nonmaterial truths.

无论我们是否喜欢，我们都生活在一个具有质性的现实中。

And whether we like it or not, we live in a reality that's qualitative.

我发现，在投资中，以质性的视角去观察是如此重要。

And seeing with a qualitative perspective is so important, I found, in investing.

关于那种前理性的认知，有时直觉被描述为一种需要培养的超能力。

And in terms of the the pre intellectual awareness, sometimes intuition is framed as this sort of superpower that you have to develop.

我认为，这与其说是发展或达成某种超能力，不如说是清除所有模糊我们感知的东西。

And I think that it's less about developing or sort of achieving a superpower and more about clearing away everything that's muddying or perception.

我真心相信，所有人类都具备辨别和感知非物质性质性真理的能力。

I truly believe that all human beings have this capability to discern and perceive nonmaterial qualitative truths.

这些特质比如可信度、真诚、抱负和美。

These are things like trustworthiness and sincerity and ambition and beauty.

你知道的？

You know?

这些是无法被建模或量化的品质。

These are qualities that you can't model them and you can't quantify them.

你无法

You can't

衡量它们，但有一种先于理智的能力，当你面对这些品质时，能够真正理解和识别它们。

measure them, but there's something pre intellectual that can actually grasp and recognize those qualities when you're in the face of them.

几周前我们聊天时，你举过一个很好的例子，说的是你开着特斯拉进入停车场，开启完全自动驾驶模式时的体验。

You had a lovely example of this when we spoke a couple of weeks ago where you were talking about the experience of, I think, going into the mall of a parking lot in a Tesla in, like, the full autonomous driving mode.

你能稍微谈谈这个吗？

Can you talk about that a little bit?

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，这其实非常及时，因为我们的特斯拉今天早上刚更新了系统，我出去测试了一下。

I mean, this is actually quite timely because our Tesla got an update just this morning, and I was out, you know, testing it.

这是公司推出的最新版本14.2。

It's version 14.2, which is the latest update that the company has rolled out.

说实话，很难解释这个产品究竟特别在哪里。

And, you know, I it's hard to explain what makes this product special.

但当我载着岳父母、父母或不熟悉的人出行时，绝大多数情况下都会出现一种惊叹的时刻。

But overwhelmingly, when I take my in laws for a ride or my parents or friends who are not familiar, there's this kind of moment of awe.

我之前提到的例子是，有一天晚上我们开车去好市多，我按下了车里的按钮，它自动穿过了所有施工区域，为应急车辆让路，驶上高速公路，再驶下高速。

And the example that I was talking about about before was that we were driving to Costco one one evening, and, you know, I clicked the button in the car, and it's navigating through all of these construction zones, and it pulls over for emergency vehicles, and it gets on the highway, and it gets off the highway.

整个行程中，我根本没有碰过方向盘或踏板。

I haven't touched the steering wheel wheel or pedals the whole ride.

然后它驶入了好市多的停车场，虽然有很多空位，但它决定跳过这些空位，再开远一点，看看能不能找到一个更好的停车位。

And then it pulls into the parking lot of Costco, and there's plenty of open spaces, but it decides I'm gonna skip these open spaces, and I'm gonna go a little further and see if I can find you an even better spot.

接着它完美地停了进去，然后停下。

And then it just pulls in perfectly, and it stops.

它自己找到了停车位。

It finds its own parking spot.

我在想，这种技术竟然真的存在，这简直像奇迹一样。

And I'm thinking, this is almost a miracle that this that this exists.

我认为，很少有人能在没有亲身体验的情况下，真正理解这项技术的力量。

And very few people, I think, understand the power of that technology without having felt had a direct perception of it themselves.

我认为，这正是直面卓越品质的一个例子。

And I think that that is one example of coming face to face with quality.

当然，还有很多其他的例子。

You know, there's plenty of other examples.

我相信，我们每个人第一次触摸iPhone时，都会觉得这简直是某种不可思议的黑魔法。

I'm sure the first time that we all touched an iPhone, we thought this is some incredible, you know, black magic.

当你第一次体验亚马逊的当日送达服务——比如你下单买一本书，两小时内它就送到你家门口——这些客户体验都值得认真聆听，因为它们揭示了造就这种体验的品质本质。

And the first time you got same day delivery from Amazon where you order a book and it shows up to your doorstep in two hours, you know, some of these customer experiences, it's worth just listening to them because they tell you something about the quality of of what's leading to that experience.

你之前用过一个很美妙的词，提到你和一位投资界朋友讨论过‘令人震撼感’这种品质。

You had a lovely word for it that you mentioned a while back that you and a friend, an investor friend, had talked about the quality of blown awayness.

是的。

Yes.

对。

Yes.

‘令人震撼感’正是我所指的这种体验。

Blown awayness is that that experience that I'm referring to.

但不幸的是，这不是一个可以量化为十分制的行业术语，但我认为它能让你对所遇到事物的质量有深刻的理解。

And, unfortunately, it's not an industry term that you can quantify one out of 10, but I think it tells you a lot about the quality of something that you're encountering.

它甚至可以简单到，比如你最喜欢的餐厅。

And it's anything as simple as, you know, your favorite restaurant.

你有一种直觉，能感知到那家餐厅的质量是提升了还是下降了。

You have a perception that tells you when the quality of that restaurant has either improved or deteriorated.

你内心深处其实知道。

There's something within you that knows.

而且，这常常是情感上的。

And oftentimes, it's emotional.

这是一种生理上的反应。

It's physiological.

我们普遍有一种根深蒂固的观念，认为作为投资者，你应该压抑自己的情感。

You know, we we we all have this commonly held dogma that you're supposed to turn off your emotions when you're an investor.

但我并不确定这总是对的。

And I'm I'm not sure that that's that's always right.

我非常喜欢这段我和谢伊的对话片段，因为我觉得它让你感受到投资的丰富性——它不仅仅是关于数字。

I love this clip from my conversation with Shaye because I think for one thing, it gives you a sense of the great richness of investing, that it's not just about the numbers.

是的。

Yes.

数字很重要。

The numbers are important.

正如英国著名投资者特里·史密斯不久前对我说的，他总是惊讶于人们竟然没有真正精通理解公司的财务报表。

As Terry Smith, one of the great British investors said to me a while back, he's always amazed that people don't actually get really proficient at understanding a company's accounts.

多年前，当他发现IBM财务报表中一个巨大的错误时，他感到震惊。

And he was shocked when he discovered some enormous mistake in the accounts of IBM many years ago.

所以，是的，你需要理解数字，但探索如何投资所蕴含的深度与美感，远远超越了数字本身。

So yes, you need to understand the numbers, but there's a kind of depth and beauty to figuring out how to invest that goes way beyond the numbers.

我认为尼玛在寻找体现品质的公司时，触及了一个深刻的真相——这种品质是无法用电子表格来表达的。

I think Nima is looking at a deep truth here when he's looking for companies that embody quality, that embody something that you can't really express in spreadsheets.

这让我想起几年前我和朋友廖岩第一次共进午餐时，他所说的一句话：品质自有其频率。

And it reminds me of a comment that my friend Yan Liao made when we first had lunch together a few years ago when he said quality has its own frequency.

当他这么说时，我浑身起鸡皮疙瘩，我一直认为这是我的身体在告诉我，某件事深深真实。

And I came up in goosebumps when he said that, which I always think is a way that my body has of telling me that something's deeply true.

因此，我认为寻找品质并能够欣赏品质——甚至可能在生理层面——确实会对我们的身体产生实际影响。

And so I think this issue of looking for quality and being able to appreciate quality, maybe even physiologically, that it actually has it it has a physical impact on us.

我们在身体上感受到它，这非常深刻。

We feel it in our body is really profound.

直觉在投资和生活中的作用是复杂而有趣的。

The role of intuition in investing in life is a complex one, an interesting one.

但我深受大卫·霍金斯的影响，他认为某些事物会让你感到强大，而另一些事物则会让你感到虚弱。

But I guess I'm sort of deeply influenced by David Hawkins, who has this sense that certain things make you go strong and other things make you go weak when you're in the presence of them.

还有罗伯特·佩塞格，他写了《禅与摩托车维修艺术》，他常说，做事有丑陋的方式，也有美丽的方式，你能感受到其中的区别。

And also Robert Persegg, who wrote Sand and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance, who would talk about how there's an ugly way of doing things and a beautiful way of doing things, and that you sense the difference.

当你身处一件精美制作的事物之中时，你的感受会与身处一件粗制滥造之物时截然不同。

When you're in the presence of something that's beautifully made, It makes you feel different than when you're in the presence of something that's slapdash.

因此，我认为尼玛在这里触及了一个非常重要的观点：关注产品如何让我们感受，关注我们在面对CEO或投资者时的感觉，是否信任他们；当你投资一家公司并逐渐了解它时，你是否更想继续投入，这一切都关乎你的感受，关乎产品带给你的感受。

And so I think Nima is onto something really important here about tuning into how products make us feel, to how we feel in the presence of a CEO or an investor, whether whether we trust them, whether as you invest in a company and you get to know it better, you want to invest more with it, how it makes you feel, how the product makes you feel.

我认为尼玛所采取的方法非常一致。

It's very consistent, I think, the approach that Nima is taking.

这与尼克·斯莱普和卡斯·西卡里亚的方法非常一致，我在《更富有、更睿智、更快乐》第六章中写过他们，他们真正关注的是少数几家体现品质的公司，深受禅宗与摩托车保养艺术的启发。

It's very consistent with the approach that Nick Sleip and Case Sicaria took, which I wrote about in Richer, Wiser, Happier in chapter six, where they really focused on just a handful of companies that embodied quality, really inspired by Zen and the automotive cycle maintenance.

这个理念认为，企业本身应当具有非常长远的视角。

This idea that the businesses themselves should, for example, be super long term in their perspective.

它们不应当仅仅为了取悦华尔街对短期利润的荒谬执着而行动。

They shouldn't just be trying to please Wall Street with its ridiculous obsession with short term profits.

对吧？

Right?

它们应当长期构建护城河。

They should be building a moat over the long term.

因此，他们最终非常专注于一种商业模式——规模经济共享，像亚马逊、好市多和伯克希尔这样的公司，由于具有长远眼光，随着规模扩大反而会变得更强大，因为它们会将规模经济带来的收益与客户共享，为你提供更好的优惠，就像亚马逊Prime或好市多不断降低成本、为你提供越来越优质的产品那样。

And so they focused very much on this one business model in the end, scale economies shared, where these companies that were very long term like Amazon, Costco, and Berkshire, they would gain in strength as they became bigger because they would take the economies of scale and they would share them with their customers to give them an even better deal, as you see with something like Amazon Prime or Costco constantly in the way they keep their costs down and just give you better and better products.

因此，这个播客播出后，那些欣赏这种思维方式的人如此热情地回应，我并不感到意外。

And so it didn't surprise me after this podcast came out that people who appreciate this way of thinking responded so warmly to it.

但当我收到尼克·斯利普的邮件时，我感到非常惊讶和欣喜，他说刚听了那次访谈，评价说：‘真是个了不起的人，说得太准了。’

But I was really surprised and joyful when I got an email from Nick Sleep saying that he'd just listened to the interview with And he said, what a super fellow, spot on.

他还说，在你采访的所有人中，从DNA层面来看，Nima可能是最接近我和扎克所做方式的人，只是他比我们年轻得多，这让人颇感谦卑。

And he said, of all the folks you've interviewed, he may be the closest DNA wise to doing what Zach and I did, except that he's so much younger than we are, which is rather humbling.

所以我认为这触及了一些非常重要的东西。

So I think this is getting at something really important.

对吧？

Right?

这种理念是寻找少数几家具备这些无形特质的伟大企业。

This idea of looking for a few great businesses that have these kind of intangible qualities that you sense.

你能感受到它们是否真正关心客户。

You sense whether they really care about their customers.

你能感受到管理层是否正直，并以长期视角来配置资本。

You sense whether the management is honorable and is thinking in the long term in the way they allocate capital.

在我和尼克·斯利普的邮件往来中，有趣的是，他说这种长期思维——正如沃伦·巴菲特和查理·芒格所秉持的——本应被市场套利掉。

And part of what was interesting in in my email exchange with Nick Sleep is that he said this this kind of long term way of thinking, which is very much how Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger thought, should have been arbitraged out by the markets.

但正如尼克指出的那样，这种情况并没有发生。

But as Nick pointed out, it hasn't.

他指出，在关闭Nomad之后，他和扎克的回报率基本保持不变，仅仅通过继续持有亚马逊、好市多和伯克希尔作为主要投资。

He pointed out that his and Zac's returns after they've closed Nomad have continued to be the same basically as they were when Nomad was open just by continuing to own Amazon, Costco, and Berkshire as their main investments.

因此，他表示，这种优势很大程度上可以归因于时间偏好。

And so he said a lot of this advantage basically can be attributed to time preferences.

所以，这些人在进行非常长期的投资，寻找少数几家真正令人钦佩的企业——因为它们关注正确的事情，具有长远眼光，我认为这非常深刻。

And so the fact that these guys are investing in this very long term way, looking for a few great businesses that in some sense make you go strong because they're looking at the right things, they're thinking long term, I think is quite profound.

但正如尼玛所说，你必须把握那些非物质的、定性的真相，比如：管理层是否值得信赖？

But as Nima says, you're having to grasp non material qualitative truths like, is management trustworthy?

他们是否真诚？

Are they sincere?

这些是你无法真正衡量或量化的特质。

These things that you can't really measure or quantify.

这让我也想起阿诺德·范登伯格不久前对我说过的一件事，他谈到他非凡的妻子艾琳时说，艾琳是用心在倾听。

And it reminds me also of something that Arnold Van den Berg said to me a while back where he he was talking about his remarkable wife, Aileen, and he said that Aileen listens with her heart.

这让我想起了之前提到过的那句话。

And it reminds me of the comment that talked about.

我想他引用了鲁米的话，说的是什么来着？

I think he he quoted Rumi saying that what was it?

是的。

Yeah.

灵魂被赋予了它自己的耳朵，去聆听心灵无法理解的事物。

The the soul has been given its own ears to hear things that the mind does not understand.

因此，我认为这是一个发人深省的观点：我们希望超越单纯的数字，关注这种略显模糊的质量感、震撼感，那些无法量化的、能引发特定情感反应的事物。

So it's a it's a thought provoking idea, I think, that we wanna go beyond just the numbers to focus on this slightly nebulous sense of quality, of blown awayness, of things that you can't quantify, things that just give you a particular emotional reaction.

我不知道，也许是因为我本身不太擅长数字。

And I don't know, maybe it's because I'm not particularly good with numbers.

我被这种理念深深吸引。

I'm extremely drawn to this approach.

因此，我发现自己最终与这些人一起投资。

And so I find myself with the people I end up investing with.

他们是我想信任的人。

They're people I trust.

他们是我喜欢的人。

They're people I like.

他们是我觉得希望留在自己生命中的人。

They're people I feel I want to have in my life.

因此，我越来越认真地对待这种对品质、诚信和正直的感受。

And so I've learned to take this feeling of quality and integrity and decency more and more seriously.

接下来我们要听的这段内容，是关于一位伟大的长期投资者。

The next clip that we're gonna listen to is about one of the great long term investors.

这位是路·辛普森，他有着非凡的投资记录，并被巴菲特誉为大师之一。

And this is Lou Simpson who had an extraordinary record and was hailed by Buffett as one of the greats.

他正是真正指导和教导尼玛的人。

And he's the person who really mentored and taught Nima.

因此，听尼玛谈论是什么让路·辛普森如此非凡，我认为对于如何明智地进行长期投资非常有启发性。

And so listening to Nima talking about what made Lou Simpson so extraordinary, I think is very, very instructive about how to invest for the long term wisely.

那我们来听一下。

So let's listen.

我想回到过去，更详细地谈谈 Lou Simpson，他在很多方面显然是你作为投资者生涯中的奠基性影响。

I wanna go back and talk in in much more detail about Lou Simpson, who's clearly been, in many ways, the formative influence in your life as an investor.

所以，我想你是在2016年左右搬到佛罗里达州的那不勒斯，并在2019年之前一直在他的公司 SQ Advisors 工作。

And so you moved to Naples, Florida in, I think, 2016 and worked until 2019 with Lou at his firm SQ Advisors.

对于那些还不了解他的人，刚才我们提到了他，Lou 曾是 GEICO 的投资负责人，这是一家现在完全隶属于伯克希尔·哈撒韦的汽车保险公司。

And for people who don't know, who've just heard us mentioning him, Lou was head of investments for GEICO, this auto insurance company that's now owned by Berkshire Hathaway, completely.

他在那里工作了三十一年，从1979年到2010年，在此期间大幅跑赢了市场。

And he was there for thirty one years, I think, from 1979 to 2010, and crushed the market over that period by a huge margin.

你向我推荐了一本书，我昨天刚读了其中关于 Lou 的一章，这本书是你朋友 Allen Benello 所写的《集中投资》，书中讲述了巴菲特最初聘用他的经过。

And you recommended to me a book that I I read a chapter on Lou yesterday, a book by your friend Allen Benello on Concentrated Investing, where he talks about the circumstances when Buffett first hired him.

巴菲特在见过他之后，有人问他关于个人投资组合的事，而巴菲特在见面后说了一些类似的话：‘停，停下音乐。’

When Buffett said after meeting him said some asked him about his personal portfolio, and then after meeting him said something like, stop stop the music.

我们找到他了。

We found our guy.

他后来简单地说，卢是投资界的大师之一。

And he later said, simply put, Lou is one of the investment greats.

这出自巴菲特在2010年写的一封信。

This is from a letter, I think, that Buffett wrote in 2010.

告诉我们，你第一次见到卢时是什么情景？

Tell us about what it was like when you first met Lou.

因为从某种意义上说，他所营造的文化与你在PIMCO所见到的文化截然相反。

Because in some ways, the culture that he created was diametrically the opposite of the culture that you had seen at PIMCO.

这并不是对PIMCO的批评。

And this isn't a criticism of PIMCO.

只是他身上体现的东西非常、非常不同。

It's just he embodied something very, very different.

当然。

Absolutely.

每当我想到卢，最常浮现的记忆就是我们第一次见面的情景。

You know, every time I think of Lou, I the memory that always comes is the first time that we met.

当时我二十多岁。

And I was in my mid twenties at the time.

正如我所说，正如你提到的，我当时在一家相对传统的投资公司工作，那就是PIMCO。

And as I said, you know, as you mentioned, I was working at a more or less traditional investment firm, which was PIMCO.

我记得，我第一份工作时带着一种过度分析的习惯。

And, you know, I remember the energy that I carried with me at my first job was this sort of over analytical habit.

我有一种刻板、严肃的态度。

I had this formality, this intensity.

当我第一次到芝加哥见Lou时，我带着满满的这种情绪。

And when I arrived in Chicago to meet with Lou for the first time, I carried a lot of that energy with me.

我们见面的背景是讨论一家我认为他可能会感兴趣的企业。

The context of our meeting was actually to discuss a company that I thought he might be interested in.

在我想象中，这位令人敬畏的投资传奇人物会严格地质疑我投资论点的每一个细节。

And in my mind, I imagined this very intimidating investment legend was going to rigorously cross examine, you know, every little detail of my investment thesis.

因此，出于不安全感，我带着厚厚一叠研究材料去了芝加哥，里面有图表、估值，什么都准备了。

And so mostly out of insecurity, I lugged along with me to Chicago, this very thick stack of research material with charts and valuations and did everything.

我准备好了。

I was ready.

我可以说是整装待发，从智力上做好了战斗的准备。

I was sort of ready to go to battle, intellectually speaking.

我记得穿着西装领带走进电梯时，心跳比平时快了一些，带着厚厚一摞研究资料和我的数据点。

And I remember stepping into the elevator with my suit and tie on and your heart's beating a little faster than usual, and I lugged along my my data points with me and my with a thick stack of of research.

那是漫长电梯上升途中，耳朵会微微发胀的那种体验。

And it's one of those long elevator rides up where your ears are sort of popping along the way.

我本以为会有人来接我，或者被领到某个等候区。

And I remember thinking, I'm gonna be met by an assistant or ushered into some kind of waiting area.

但结果呢，门是开着的，Lou本人就站在走廊里，非常平易近人，毫无拘束，也不装腔作势。

And instead, you know, the door's open, and it's just Lou himself standing in the hallway, very unassuming, no formality, no pretension.

他带我走进一间办公室，那和我前一天刚离开的办公室简直截然相反。

And he led me into an office that was really the polar opposite of the office that I had just been in, you know, the day before.

那里没有蓝色的交易终端。

There were no blue merch terminals.

房间里没有开着财经电视。

There was no, you know, financial TV on.

就像一位学者的图书馆一样，有一把舒适的椅子，几堆读物，那种宁静的氛围立刻打动了我。

It was like the library of a scholar, you know, a comfortable chair, couple piles of reading material, and this just very calm presence that immediately struck me.

他带我进去时，她看着我，他说，别把自己当外人。

And she looked at me as he led me inside, and he he said, you know, don't make yourself at home.

我给你煮杯咖啡吧。

Let me make you a coffee.

我记得那句话让我一下子愣住了，因为眼前这个人几十年来一直以世界级的水平积累财富，是沃伦·巴菲特多年来多次称赞的人，也是我从大学起就远远关注的对象。

And I remember that that line just sort of stopped me in my tracks because here was someone who had compounded capital at world class rates for decades, someone who Warren Buffett had praised many times over the years, and someone that I had been studying from afar since college.

你知道吗，我在大学上课间隙打发时间的方式，就是打开一份老版的伯克希尔·哈撒韦13F报告。

You know, my idea of passing time between classes in college was to pull up an old Berkshire Hathaway 13 f.

在那些早期年份，你真的可以往下扫一眼，分辨出哪些持仓是卢的，哪些是沃伦的。

And in some of those early years, you could actually scan down and see which holdings belonged to Lou and which holdings belonged to Warren.

所以我常常坐在加州大学洛杉矶分校的咖啡馆里，试图逆向分析卢为什么买入房利美或穆迪，为什么在九十年代初买入耐克并持有二十年以上。

And so I would sit there at the UCLA coffee shop trying to reverse engineer why Lou bought Freddie Mac or Moody's, you know, why he bought Nike in the early nineties and held it for twenty years or more.

而此刻，这位做出这些决策的人，却转身去为一个显然紧张、尚无成就、才刚刚踏上复利之旅的20岁少年煮咖啡。

And now, you know, here he was, this person behind these decisions, stepping away to make coffee for a probably visibly nervous 20 year old kid who hadn't done anything yet and who was so early in his compounding journey.

我记得当时心里想，应该是我给你煮咖啡才对。

And I remember thinking to myself, you know, I should be making you the coffee.

当他回来时，并没有开始长篇大论。

And when he returned, he didn't launch into some kind of monologue.

他也没有试图炫耀自己有多聪明。

He didn't try to assert how smart he was.

他带着真诚的好奇心提出问题，这种开放和接纳的态度，对于一个拥有如此经验和声誉的人来说，实在非同寻常。

He would ask these questions with this very sincere curiosity, and it was this remarkable receptiveness for someone with his experience and with his reputation.

那次初遇给我留下了深刻的印象，因为它为我打开了一扇窗，让我看到在这份事业中，原来还有另一种存在方式。

And, you know, that first meeting left such a deep imprint on me because it kind of opened a window that there was just a different way of being in this work.

它不必是那种拼命竞争、零和博弈的运作方式，也不必是那种过度活跃的状态。

It didn't have to be this hard charging zero sum way of operating, this kind of hyperactive way of operating.

Lou为人处世极少自我膨胀，这与投资界常见的那种典型形象截然不同。

Lou carried himself with remarkably little ego, and that was so different from the archetype of person that you typically run into in the investment world.

你知道，通常的经历是，你会遇到一些非常聪明、非常勤奋的人，但不知为何，他们总是喜欢夸大自己的成就，向你滔滔不绝地讲他们最近的投资胜利、管理的资产规模，还有诸如此类的事情。

You know, the normal experience is that you come across folks who are very bright, very hardworking, but for whatever reason, they insist on puffing up their accomplishments and telling you all about their, you know, most recent investment win and their assets under management and, you know, all this sort of thing.

而Lou却完全不一样。

And Lou was just so different from this.

他一些最非凡的成就，往往在你认识他多年后，不经意间才偶然透露出来。

Some of his most extraordinary achievements would just sort of slip out accidentally after having known him for years.

你知道吗？

You know?

他似乎刻意对自我吹嘘的那一面毫无兴趣。

He seemed deliberately uninterested in indulging that kind of self congratulatory aspect of himself.

他总是很快地说：我不知道。

He was quick to say, I don't know.

当有人反驳他或质疑他对某家公司的看法时，他从不防御。

You know, when someone would disagree with him or challenge one of his beliefs on a company, he wouldn't get defensive.

他只会简单地说：是的，也许你是对的。

He would simply say, yeah, you know, maybe you're right.

我应该更深入地思考一下这一点。

I should think about that more.

我真心认为，他的谦逊——也就是他缺乏自我中心——正是他成为优秀投资者的原因，这是他成为优秀投资者的关键原因之一，因为这让他对现实有了更清晰的认知。

And I truly believe that his humility was, you know, his lack of egoism was the reason why he was a good investor, was a big reason why he was a good investor, because it gave him a clearer one:thirty perception of reality.

让我们短暂休息一下，听听今天赞助商的信息。

Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors.

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Trading in futures involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

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Not all applicants will qualify.

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在我加入投资者播客之前，我一直在金融领域走着一条非常传统的道路。

Before I joined the investors podcast, I was on a pretty conventional path in finance.

我当时在标普工作，准备CFA考试，但我一直渴望摆脱朝九晚五的束缚。

I was working at S and P studying for the CFA, but I had this fixation on liberating myself from the nine to five grind.

我有过疑虑，但还是毅然跳了出去，而且

I had doubts, but I took the leap anyway, and

结果证明这

it turned out to be

这是我做过的最好的决定之一。

one of the best decisions I've ever made.

全球数百万企业家每年都要面对同样的选择。

Millions of entrepreneurs worldwide face that same decision every single year.

而让这个决定更容易的一个关键，就是从第一天起就拥有合适的合作伙伴。

And one of the things that makes it easier is having the right partner from day one.

对很多人来说，这个合作伙伴就是Shopify。

For a lot of people, that partner is Shopify.

Shopify是全球数百万企业的商业平台，占据了美国所有电子商务的10%。

Shopify is the commerce platform behind millions of businesses around the world and 10% of all e commerce in The US.

从Gymshark和Allbirds这样的大品牌，到刚刚起步开设第一家店铺的普通人，都在使用它。

We're talking everything from huge brands like Gymshark and Allbirds to people just getting their first store off the ground.

作为我自己经营企业的过来人，我特别欣赏的一点是。

Here's what I really appreciate as someone who runs a business myself.

Shopify把所有功能都整合在了一个地方。

Shopify puts everything in one place.

此外，如果你遇到任何问题，Shopify 提供屡获殊荣的 24/7 客户支持。

Plus, if you ever get stuck, Shopify has award winning twenty four seven customer support.

他们随时都在为你提供帮助。

They are always around to help.

所以，如果你一直有创业想法却犹豫不决，现在是时候用 Shopify 将这些‘如果’变为现实了。

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Sign up for your $1 per month trial today at shopify.com/tip.

前往 shopify.com/tip。

Go to shopify.com/tip.

就是 shopify.com/tip。

That's shopify.com/tip.

不，这不是你的错觉。

No, it's not your imagination.

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Risk and regulation are ramping up.

如今，客户在开展业务前都要求提供安全证明。

And customers now expect proof of security just to do business.

这就是Vanta之所以改变游戏规则的原因。

That's why Vanta is a game changer.

Vanta自动化了您的合规流程，将合规、风险和客户信任整合在一个基于人工智能的平台上。

Vanta automates your compliance process and brings compliance, risk, and customer trust together on one AI powered platform.

无论您是在为SOC 2做准备，还是在运行企业GRC项目，Vanta都能确保您的安全并推动交易持续进行。

So whether you're prepping for a SOC two or running an enterprise GRC program, Vanta keeps you secure and keeps your deals moving.

这里有一个让我印象特别深刻的数字。

And here's a number that really stood out to me.

像Ramp和Ryder这样的公司，使用Vanta后，审计时间减少了82%。

Companies like Ramp and Ryder spend 82% less time on audits with Vanta.

这不仅仅是合规更快了，更是为增长争取了更多时间。

That's not just faster compliance, it's more time for growth.

我特别欣赏的是，超过一万家公司，从初创企业到大型企业，都信赖Vanta来处理这些事务，以便他们能专注于真正推动业务发展的核心工作。

I love that over 10,000 companies from startups to big enterprises trust Vanta to handle this stuff so they can focus on what actually moves the needle.

立即前往 vanta.com/tip 开始使用。

Get started today at vanta.com/tip.

好的。

Alright.

回到节目。

Back to the show.

我跟他唯一的一次对话，我想我可能之前跟你说过。

The one conversation that I ever had with him I I think I may have told you this before.

那是我和查理·芒格以及几位像路易这样的人一起参加Zoom早餐会的时候。

This was when I had a Zoom breakfast with Charlie Munger and a few people like like Lou were on the call.

而路易——你知道的，他在2022年去世了——当时显然身体已经很不好了。

And Lou already, you know, who passed in in 2022, was already obviously pretty unwell, I think.

但他在这次通话中非常友善，整个通话感觉非常奇怪，因为我们的作业居然是去读理查德·塞勒的《更快乐》这本书，然后进行讨论。

And he was so lovely on the call, and it was a very it was a very strange call because, gosh, our homework is gonna be to study your book, Richard Wiser, Happier, and then we'll discuss it.

所以我处于一个挺尴尬的境地，心想：天啊，我居然在这里。

So I'm in this sort of embarrassing position where it's like, oh, here I am.

我要教Lou和Charlie怎么投资。

I'm gonna teach Lou and Charlie about how to invest.

当时有个时刻，你知道，Charlie在整个对话中非常主导，然后有人转向Lou问道：‘Lou，你觉得这本书怎么样？’

And there was a moment where someone turn you know, Charlie was very dominant through the conversation, and then someone turned to to Lou and said, what do you think of the book, Lou?

Lou对此非常友善，礼貌而迷人，他说拥有伟大投资的故事非常有帮助，因为我们通过故事来学习。

And Lou was really lovely about it, like, very polite and charming and said how helpful it is to have stories of great investments, like, because we learn through stories.

接着我们谈到了阿里巴巴，他和Charlie刚刚买入了这只股票。

And then we were talking about Alibaba, which he and Charlie had just been buying.

Charlie一直说：‘我全仓买入了。’

And the you know, Charlie had been saying, oh, I'm all in.

Lou则说了一句类似的话：‘我昨天刚买进，所以它肯定马上会跌50%。’

And Lou said something like, well, I just bought it yesterday, so it's bound to go down 50% immediately.

那种自我调侃的态度让人印象深刻。

And there was something sort of so self deprecating about it.

他并不是为了告诉你：‘我刚买了，你知道吗？’

Like, he wasn't there to tell you, I just bought the you know?

我问他为什么买它？

And I asked him why why did you buy it?

他说，你知道的，这是一个在快速增长国家里的主导企业，而且价格异常低廉。

And he was saying, well, you know, it's a it's a dominant business in a fast growing country, and it's it's extraordinarily cheap.

但有趣的是，它真的下跌了50%。

But it was funny because it did go down 50%.

所以，某种程度上，这非常符合他谦逊、自嘲的风格。

And so there in a way, it was, like, very typical of him that he was so humble and self deprecating.

某种程度上，这或许也反映出他意识到，这其实是一场非常艰难的游戏，你总会经历那些事情突然发生、无法掌控的阶段。

And in a way, maybe it was also a recognition of the fact this is a really hard game, and you are gonna know, there you are gonna go through these periods where just stuff happens.

是的。

Yeah.

当然。

Absolutely.

你知道，这让我想起一位朋友给我下过一个关于谦逊的定义，我觉得异常精准。

You know, it brings to mind a friend of mine offered me a definition of humility that I think is remarkably precise.

我认为这是对谦逊最精准的定义。

I think it's the best definition of humility that exists.

他说，谦逊是一种觉知。

He said that humility is the awareness.

它是你对自己完全依赖于一切存在、以及与周围所有人相互依存的觉知。

It's your awareness of your utter dependence on all that exists and your interdependence on everyone around you.

而谦逊的反面，当然是以自我为中心的视角，认为一切都是自己独自完成的，自己才是掌控者。

And the opposite of humility, of course, is like a self centered perspective to think that we did it all alone, that we're the ones in control.

这会蒙蔽你的判断。

That clouds your perception.

它会扭曲你的认知。

It distorts your judgment.

当路易谈到他的投资组合时，这种动态表现得非常明显。

And this dynamic was so clear when Lou talked about his portfolio.

你知道吗？

You know?

当其他人都在推销自己出色的点子时，路易却会说，我觉得这个投资组合只是还行。

When everyone else would pitch their great ideas, Lou would say things like, you know, I think the portfolio is just okay.

也许有点疲软了。

Maybe it's a little tired.

而这可是有史以来最伟大的投资者之一，他却对自己的投资组合如此低调。

And this is, you know, this is one of the best investors of all time, and he's just sort of ho about his portfolio.

而如果你去参加许多大型投资公司的周一早会，你会听到人们为许多平庸的点子拍桌子叫好。

Whereas if you went into the Monday morning meeting of many large investment firms, you would hear people pounding the table on probably mediocre ideas in many cases.

我认为他的谦逊中带有一种客观性。

And I think there's something that's objective about his humility.

它让你能够清晰地看待事物。

It allows you to see things clearly.

他的谦逊并不是做作的。

And the his humility wasn't performative.

并不是那种虚伪的、假装谦虚的自夸。

It wasn't like this inauthentic, humble bragging.

这源于一种真实的认知：我们实际上能控制的东西少之又少。

It came from a real awareness in how little we actually control.

我认为，巴菲特关于‘卵巢彩票’的说法，很好地捕捉了这种精神。

And I think, you know, Buffett's line about the ovarian lottery, I think, captures that spirit so well.

我们都喜欢相信，自己的成功完全归功于自身努力，认为一切皆可预测。

We all like to believe that we are the sole cause of our own success, that things are so deterministic.

但事实上，生活中投资中任何顺利的事情，很大程度上只是命运的恩赐。

But in truth, you know, so much of anything that goes right in life in investing is really just the beneficence of life.

艾伦·贝内洛的书中有一段话我很记得，多年前路易就说过：我们与许多投资者恰恰相反。

There's a really lovely line also in Allen Benello's book that I remember seeing before many years ago from Lou where he said, we are sort of the polar opposites of a lot of investors.

我们多思考，少行动。

We do a lot of thinking and not a lot of acting.

很多投资者则是多行动，少思考。

A lot of investors do a lot of acting and not a lot of thinking.

我想知道，你从他身上学到了什么，关于如何摆脱噪音、干扰，以及华尔街那种赌场般的氛围。

And I'm wondering what you learned from him about the importance of detaching ourselves from the noise and distractions and and the kind of casino element of Wall Street.

是的。

Yes.

我认为，在我认识他的那些年里，卢过着相当平衡的生活。

I think Lou lived a pretty balanced life in the years that I knew him.

他广泛阅读。

He would read broadly.

他有着惊人的幽默感。

He had this amazing sense of humor.

你知道吗？

You know?

他会把锻炼当作优先事项。

He would make it a priority to exercise.

他早上会去散步，或者去游泳。

He would in the mornings, he would go for a long walk or he would go for a swim.

记得有一次，那绝对是星期中，我想市场是开放的。

Remember on one occasion, it was definitely in the middle of the week, and I think the market was open.

我认为那天我们的投资组合可能下跌了不少。

And I think our portfolio was probably down quite a bit that day.

他只是给我打了电话，说你知道吗，芝加哥现代艺术博物馆有个新展览。

And he just called me up, he said, you know, there's this new exhibition at MoMA in Chicago.

你想和我一起去吗？

Do you wanna go with me?

我说，好啊。

And I said, great.

我们就那样整个下午闲逛，看看艺术作品。

And we just spent the afternoon wandering around, you know, looking at art.

你知道，这和你在许多投资公司可能经历的体验截然不同。

You know, this is this is very different from the kind of, the kind of experience that you might have at many many investment firms.

所以，我知道我无法对这个问题给出所有答案，但我知道的是，如果你打算进行长期投资，并且已经接受了这种波动性，那么如果你总是拼命奔跑、时刻紧绷、对每一个微小数据点都做出反应，只是盯着屏幕上的价格波动，也许这能帮你提升接下来一个月、两个月或六个月的表现。

So I, you know, I won't claim to have all the answers about this, but what I do know is that if you intend to have a long term investment journey and you have surrendered to a lot of this volatility, I know that if you're constantly sprinting and you're always wired and you're reactive to every little data point and you're just staring at ticks on a screen, maybe that will help your results for the next month or two months or six months.

但从长远来看，这会彻底摧毁你的健康。

But over the long term, it will completely destroy your health.

它会摧毁你的身心健康。

It will destroy your physical and mental health.

它会损害你的人际关系。

It will strain your relationships.

讽刺的是，它最终会让投资决策变得更糟。

And ironically, it will make the investment decision the worse at some point.

这种现象很反常：你越努力、越拼命地投资，你的生存时间就越短。

And it's sort of perverse that the harder you push, the harder you try at investing, the shorter your runway.

最终，你知道，复利的关键在于年数。

And in the end, you know, compounding is all about the number of years.

因此，我认为在生活里留出空间，是我从他那里学到的、无比宝贵的一课。

And so I think creating space in your life is something that I learned from him and something that's invaluable.

现代投资的很大一部分工作是撰写备忘录或更新模型。

So much of modern investing is preparing a memo or updating a model.

你知道，有太多即时反应了。

You know, there's so much reactivity.

正如他所说，很少有人会刻意留出时间进行反思。

And to his point, you know, so much little so so much so little time is intentionally devoted to reflection.

对大多数人来说，很难直观地意识到，散步可能比在Excel模型中增加另一个情景对投资组合更有帮助。

And it's not intuitive for most people to think that going for a walk may be better for your portfolio than adding another scenario to your Excel model.

这是尼玛·沙耶格在谈论伟大的卢·辛普森。

That's Nima Shayegh talking about the great Lou Simpson.

天啊，这里有很多教训，真不知道从哪里说起。

Man, there's so many lessons here that it's hard to know where to start.

但我只想快速聚焦其中几个。

But I'll just focus quickly on a couple of them.

首先，显然是谦逊的重要性，这一点我们之前讨论霍华德·马克斯时也提到过。

The first obviously is the importance of humility again, which is something that we discussed about Howard Marks.

这种愿意承认我们真正所知甚少、承认自己可能错了、开放接受他人观点、不同意见和反证的态度。

This willingness to admit how little we really know, to admit that maybe we're wrong, to be open to other people's views, to dissenting opinions and disconfirming evidence.

这不仅是生活中的美德，更是投资中的美德——这种能够放下自我、不自负的能力。

And that this is not only a virtue in life, but is actually a virtue in investing, this ability to have kind of lack of ego.

但我认为这在人生中也同样重要。

But I do think it's really important in life as well.

我记得很多年前，当我刚刚再次听这段录音时，就在思考这个问题。

And I remember many years ago, I was thinking of this as I was listening to this clip again just now.

我以前的一个同事是一位非常出色的作家，他曾在一个最大的投资公司工作过，帮助一位著名投资者撰写致股东的信件。

Someone I used to work with who's a a really superb writer had done a stint at one of the biggest investment firms where he had helped a famous investor write his shareholder letters.

我记得他告诉我，他第一次见到这位著名投资者时，这位投资者正在办公室里挥舞棒球棒，差点打到他。

And I remember him saying to me that the first time he met this famous investor, was managing one of the biggest funds in the world, the guy swung a baseball bat in his office so that it kind of nearly hit him.

这很吓人。

It was scary.

而且这种行为真的很不妥。

And it was just kind of a really unpleasant thing to do.

这位作家告诉我——我特意不点名——但他说，这位著名投资者的继任者行为方式截然不同。

And this writer told me I'm specifically not naming names, but the writer told me this because the successor to that famous investor behaved in such a different way.

他是个非常正派的人。

He was such a decent guy.

所以我不确定。

And so I don't know.

我非常喜欢听关于卢的谦逊的故事，我在与卢和查理的那次视频通话中确实感受到了这一点。

I I love hearing about about Lou's humility, and I certainly saw it in in that Zoom call that I had with Lou and and Charlie.

他真的有一种非常友善的态度。

Like, he he he just had this very kindly manner.

我想强调的另一个观点是，从尼玛对卢生活方式的描述中可以看出，我发现许多最优秀的投资者都以一种反主流文化的方式生活，他们从身体上、智力上和情感上与大众保持距离。

The other point that I I wanted to emphasize, which is something that I think comes through really clearly from Nima's description of Lou's lifestyle, is I see in so many of the best investors that they live in this countercultural way that they're detaching themselves from the crowd physically, intellectually, emotionally.

他们让自己与社会保持一定的距离。

They're they're setting themselves up at a kind of remove from society.

他们独立思考，大量阅读，坚持锻炼，研究艺术。

They're thinking for themselves, they're reading a lot, they're exercising, they're studying art.

他们不会对彭博终端上市场的每一次波动做出反应。

They're not reacting to every zig and zag of the market on their Bloomberg terminal.

他们也不会不断试图预测市场、经济或股价的下一步走向。

And they're not trying constantly to predict what's gonna happen next to the market and the economy or the stock prices.

我记得尼克·斯利普曾经不屑地对我说过，那种试图猜测市场波动的行为，他称之为‘摇摆猜测’。

And I remember Nick Sleep talking derisively to me once about that tendency to engage in wiggle guessing, as he called it.

因此，在尼玛对卢生活方式的描述中，你能感受到作为一种投资者，以及在生活品质上，拥有一个更缓慢、更沉思的生活方式是有优势的，这种生活方式让你真正专注于重要的事情。

And so I think in Nima's description of Lou's lifestyle, you get this sense that there's an advantage as an investor, but also in terms of the quality of your life, to having a slower, slightly more thoughtful lifestyle where you're really focusing on what matters.

我意识到，在过去几年里，我经常谈论这样一个问题：你究竟在追求什么目标。

And I realized that for the last few years, I've often talked about this question of what it is that you're optimizing for.

我意识到，这个想法实际上是我从几年前与尼玛的第一次对话中‘借用’来的，因为他在本次对话中重复了同样的表述——他始终在思考自己究竟在优化什么。

I realized that I've actually stolen the idea from probably my first conversation with Nima a few years ago, because he repeats the idea, the wording in this conversation that he's always thinking about what he's optimizing for.

因此，当尼玛在创立这家公司——鲁米合伙公司时，向卢寻求建议，卢明确告诉他：专注于做好业绩。

And so when Nima was setting up this company, Rumi Partners, and he asked Lou for advice, Lou was very clear in saying to him, look, focus on performing well.

别担心诸如尽可能多地筹集资本这类事情。

Don't worry about things like raising as much capital as possible.

尼玛非常清楚，他并不是在追求管理一个庞大的基金、管理大量人员、庞大的团队、募资或处理繁杂的行政事务。

And Nima is very clear that he's not optimizing for managing a huge fund or managing lots of people, a big team or fundraising or doing lots of administrative stuff.

他创造了一种极其简单的生活方式：他拥有的资产不到十项，基本上只是花时间分析企业，每年寻找一两个新的投资机会。

He's created this very simple lifestyle where he owns fewer than 10 and he's basically just spending his time analyzing businesses, looking for one or two new ideas a year.

而且有大量时间进行反思，有大量时间思考最佳商业模式，专心致志地研究优秀企业。

And there's lots of time for reflection, lots of time for thinking about the best business models, thinking without distraction about great businesses.

因此，当我观察这些伟大的投资者时，最让我钦佩的并不是那些像肾上腺素成瘾者一样拼命奔跑、试图通过比别人早几秒交易来战胜市场的投资者。

And so I think when I look at these great investors, the ones who inspire me most in many ways are not the ones who are like these adrenaline junkies, who are running as fast as they can, trying to beat the market by getting an edge where they're trading a few seconds before anyone else.

而是那些深思熟虑地寻找优秀企业、并像卢·辛普森常提到的那样，真正理解企业未来经济前景的人——而要做到这一点，你无法同时关注太多公司。

It's these people who are really thoughtful in looking for great businesses and understanding, as Lou Simpson often talked about, just understanding the future economics of a business, which you can't do with that many companies.

但有时你确实能做到，有时确实会有些清晰的洞察。

But sometimes you can, sometimes there is some clarity.

所以，归根结底，这关乎专注于最重要的事，专注于本质的东西，而霍华德·马克斯在这方面也有非凡的天赋，对吧？

So again, in a way, it's all about focusing on what matters most, focusing on what's essential, which is something that Howard Marks has a gift for as well, right?

这种智慧的提炼。

This distillation of wisdom.

所以你要专注于真正重要的、真正本质的东西。

So you focus on what really matters on what's really essential.

因此，当我听人谈论卢·辛普森时，这让我内心产生一种渴望：渴望过一种不那么肤浅、不那么匆忙的生活。

So I think for me, that's part of the inspiration here when I listen to talking about Lou Simpson is it creates a kind of yearning in me to have a less superficial life, less speedy life.

这很难，因为我总是给自己堆加更多事情。

And it's difficult because I'm always piling more stuff on myself.

我相信你也感觉到了，我们每个人在很多方面都负担过重、筋疲力尽。

I'm sure you feel the same that we're all overburdened and overstretched in so many ways.

但当我听尼玛谈论卢·辛普森时，我渴望拥有更从容的生活，拥有思考的时间。

But I feel like listening to Nima talk about Lou Simpson, it makes me wanna have a little bit more of a spacious life and and to have the time to think.

当越来越多的人从ChatGPT之类的地方获取肤浅、快速的答案时，我反而对那些关注长期、阅读书籍、思考伟大企业本质的人更感兴趣。

And the more the more people are, you know, getting very superficial quick answers from chat GPT and the like, it's interesting to me to focus on these people who are thinking about the long term, who are reading books, who are thinking about the essence of great businesses.

尼玛能随口引用教皇、鲁米等人的名言，真正汲取这位伟大思想家数百年来的苏菲智慧，这真是一个绝佳的优势。

The fact that Nima can quote the Pope Rumi left, right, and center, and is really drawing on centuries old Sufi wisdom from this great thinker.

这确实是一个非常了不起的优势。

That's a really wonderful advantage.

比尔·米勒也是如此，他前几天给我发邮件，谈到了他最近读的几本书，他正在制定或已经制定了一个‘临终书单’，因为他一向务实，觉得：‘这大概就是我余生还能读完的书的数量了’，毕竟你永远不知道自己还能活多久。

I see the same thing with Bill Miller, who he emailed me the other day about various books that he's been reading and he's creating a or has been creating an end of life book list because in typically pragmatic fashion, he's like, Well, this is probably the amount of time I have left in life because you never know how long you have, but this is probably the number of books that I can read.

所以他计划在未来十年里每年读40本书。

So he plans to read 40 books a year for the next decade.

我非常喜欢这一点，我们这一代最伟大的投资者之一，竟然还能抽出时间每年读40本书。

And I love that, the fact that one of the greatest investors of our generation is finding the time to read 40 books a year.

当他回顾一年时，会有点惊讶地说：‘哎呀，今年只读了24本’，但其中一本是《安娜·卡列尼娜》，那本书特别长。

He's sort of slightly aghast when he looks back at a year and he's like, well, only read 24 that year, but one of them was Anna Karenina, which is really long.

所以这种情况下，一本就算两本了。

So that kind of counts as two.

因此，当我想到比尔·米勒、卢·辛普森、尼玛或霍华德·马克斯这样的人时，我会希望自己更有耐心、更沉思、不那么匆忙、不那么肤浅，过一种更宁静的生活。

And so I think in a way, when I think about these people like Bill Miller, Lou Simpson or Nima or Howard Marks, it makes me wanna be more patient, more thoughtful, less rushed, less superficial to lead a little bit of a quieter life.

我记得当初写书的时候，我去采访过保罗·艾萨克斯，一位了不起的投资者，非常聪明，和吉姆·格兰特关系密切。

I remember once when I was working on the book, I went to interview Paul Isaacs, great investor, really smart guy, he's very close to Jim Grant.

他的办公室就像一座图书馆。

And his office was just like a library.

安静极了，平和极了。

Was just so quiet, so peaceful.

我认为这在很多方面都是一种巨大的优势。

And I think that's a great advantage in many ways.