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您正在收听TIP。
You're listening to TIP.
嘿,大家好。
Hey, everyone.
欢迎收看本周三发布的《无限科技》。
Welcome to this Wednesday's release of Infinite Tech.
今天,塞布·班尼和我再次回来,为大家盘点科技前沿最有趣、最疯狂的动态。
Today, Seb Bunny and I are back to cover all the most interesting and crazy things happening on the tech frontier.
在本期节目中,我们将深入探讨人工智能如何改变个性化医疗,从基因分析到实时补充方案,以及这对隐私和信任意味着什么。
On this show, we dig into how AI is transforming personalized health care from genetic analysis to real time supplement protocols and what that means for privacy and trust.
我们还将剖析谷歌和SpaceX在太空数据中心领域的布局,以及实现这一未来所需实现的发射成本降低十倍的挑战。
We also break down Google and SpaceX's push towards space based data centers and the 10x drop and launch costs that need to take place before that future is real.
接着,我们将转向教育领域,探讨个性化AI学习、虚拟现实课堂,以及传统教育模式为何难以跟上步伐。
From there, we shift to education, personalized AI learning, VR classrooms, and why the traditional model is struggling to keep up.
最后,我们以一个重大问题收尾:人工智能偏见监管,以及这些系统如何判断什么是有效信号,什么是噪音。
And we wrap with the big question, AI bias regulations and how these systems decide what is signal versus noise.
这绝对是您不容错过的精彩一期。
This is surely an episode you won't wanna miss.
那么,不多说了,让我们直接进入节目。
So without further ado, let's jump into the show.
您正在收听由投资者播客网络出品的《无限科技》,主持人是普雷斯顿·派什。
You're listening to Infinite Tech by The Investor's Podcast Network hosted by Preston Pysh.
我们以富足和稳健货币的视角,探索比特币、人工智能、机器人技术、长寿以及其他指数级技术。
We explore Bitcoin, AI, robotics, longevity, and other exponential technologies through a lens of abundance and sound money.
加入我们,一起连接塑造未来十年及更远未来的突破性进展,助您今日就掌握未来。
Join us as we connect the breakthrough shaping the next decade and beyond, empowering you to harness the future today.
现在,有请您的主持人,普雷斯顿·派什。
And now here's your host, Preston Pysh.
大家好。
Hey, everyone.
欢迎收听本节目。
Welcome to the show.
我再次和唯一一位塞布·邦尼坐在一起,我们准备了大量科技话题和新闻中正在发生的令人兴奋、迷人的事情。
I am back here with the one and only Seb Bunny, and we've got a whole array of tech topics and exciting things that are in the news and happening and fascinating, fascinating stuff.
我们在录制前正在为这些内容做准备。
We're preparing for these, before we hit record.
塞布和我都觉得,去了解世界上目前正在发生的这些令人兴奋的事情真的非常有趣。
Seb and I were both just like, this is really fun to go through all these exciting things that are happening in the world right now.
所以,塞布,很高兴你再次回来。
So Seb, excited to have you back.
你准备好深入探讨了吗?
Are you ready to dive into this?
哦,天哪,当然准备好了。
Oh, man, definitely ready.
说到这一点,我认为当你用不同的视角来看待某件事时,比如‘我要谈论这件事’,这真的非常有趣。
And kind of to that point, I think it's really fascinating when you look at something through a different lens, the lens being, hey, I'm about to talk about this thing.
我需要理解得更深一些,而不仅仅是停留在非常肤浅的层面。
I need to understand it a little more than just this very, very superficial level.
所以,是的,当你试图跟上科技的步伐时,世界变得如此迅速。
And so, yeah, the world is moving so quickly when you're trying to keep up with technology.
我想强调一下,如果你正在收听这个节目,并在X平台或互联网上的任何地方发现了一些从技术角度看非常有趣的内容,我们已经有一些听众在Twitter上与我们分享了这类内容。
I wanna emphasize, if you're listening to the show and you come across something on X or anywhere on the Internet that is just fascinating from a tech standpoint, we've had a couple people share stuff with us on Twitter.
我认为今天我们节目里要使用的一个内容就是其中之一,所以请与我们分享,指出来,为我们照亮它,让我们能把这些内容带到节目中。
One of the things I believe we're gonna be using today on the show, so share that with us, point it out, Shine a flashlight on it for us so we can, bring it on the show.
如果你是把这类内容带给我们的听众之一,我们会在节目中提到你。
And we'll mention you on the show if if you're one of the people that bring it to us.
那么我们开始吧。
So let's start off.
Seb,你说你有一件关于Gary Breca的事情想先聊聊。
Seb, you said that you had something with Gary Breca that you wanted to cover to start off.
当然。
Absolutely.
所以这并不一定是本周或上周我们看到的最新技术进展。
So this isn't necessarily the newest technology that we're seeing advancing in this week, last week.
这可能是我过去几年一直在研究的一个话题,那就是个性化健康。
This is something that maybe over the last few years I've been digging into, and it's this idea of personalized health.
对于不知道加里·布雷克是谁的人,他创立了一个他称之为‘终极人类’的项目。
So for people that don't know who Gary Brecker is, he founded something that he calls the ultimate human.
我认为这是一家公司,他们还有一个播客。
I think it's a company, they also have a podcast.
如果我稍微讲点背景,他以前是个寿险从业者。
And if I give a little bit of backstory, he used to be a life insurance guy.
他过去经常查看那些申请寿险的人。
He used to look at these individuals that are applying for life insurance.
寿险公司需要根据一个人的健康状况,来决定收取多少保费。
Life insurance company had to figure out, okay, based on this person's health, how much are we going to charge for these life insurance premiums?
因此,他会从一个人出生到现在整个生命周期的数据出发,试图判断这个人有多健康,还能活多久。
And so he would be looking at basically someone from birth through to present day to try and determine from like a data perspective how healthy is this person, how much life do they have left.
他越来越注意到,这些个体往往去看不同的医生,各自处理不同的健康问题,但没有人从整体上全面关注他们,导致出现相互矛盾的情况。
And what he noticed increasingly is many times these individuals would be going to separate doctors that have these health issues, but no single person is looking at them holistically and there would be conflicted issues.
比如,他曾在其中一个播客中提到一位女士,当时他在研究这个案例,这位女士正在看两位医生。
So for instance, one lady in particular, I think he talks about in one of his podcasts, was he was looking at this case and this lady was seeing two doctors.
两位医生给她开了不同的处方,而这些处方之间会产生相互作用,甚至可能致命。
Both of them were giving her a different prescription and those prescriptions actually interact with one another and could be deadly.
由于他当时在人寿保险公司工作,法律上不允许他介入并向她提出警告,所以他只能眼睁睁看着事态发展,最后他心想:我不能再这样下去了。
And he, given that he was working for the life insurance company, wasn't legally allowed to step in and voice this to her And so he just had to see this play out and he was just like, I cannot continue doing this.
我想帮助人们。
I want to be able to help people.
我想在人们的健康旅程中给予支持。
I want to be able to support people along in their journey.
我意识到,健康需要从整体角度来审视。
And I recognise that health is something that we need to look at holistically.
我们不能像当前许多医疗体系那样,只进行孤立的干预。
We can't look at it interventionistically, which is what a lot of our healthcare system does.
因此,我之所以觉得这非常有趣,是因为他关注的是我们的基因和甲基化通路。
So in essence the reason why I find it really fascinating is that he looks at what are called our genetics and our methylation pathways.
对于不熟悉这些概念的人,我来解释一下甲基化。我可能完全理解错了,但我的理解是,我们的身体有被称为甲基化通路的机制,它负责将营养物质转化为各种身体系统运行所需的物质,包括排毒、炎症控制、激素代谢、DNA修复等所有这些身体过程。
So for people that aren't familiar with what these are, methylation the way I interpret it and I could be completely wrong here the way I interpret it is that our body has these things called methylation pathways and it's how we take nutrients and then use that nutrients to be able to form various, have our bodily systems run, be able to extract and detoxify, inflammation control, hormone processing, DNA repair, all of these various processes in the body.
我通常这样理解:想象一下,如果你试图用原油给汽车加油,它是无法直接利用原油中的营养成分的,你必须先将原油转化为汽油。
And the way I kind of think about it is like imagine if you're trying to feed a car crude oil, it's not going to be able to take that crude oil and use the nutrients directly, you need to have it kind of converted into gasoline.
吃食物和蔬菜也是同样的道理,食物进入身体后,我们无法直接利用它们,必须通过甲基化通路将其转化为身体可以吸收利用的形式。
Well it's the same thing when we eat food and vegetables, we eat those food, comes into the body, we can't use it directly, we need to go through the methylation pathway to convert it into a source that's ready for us to use.
总之,简而言之,这位名叫加里·布雷克的人所做的,就是进行基因检测。
So anyway, long story short, what this guy Gary Brecker basically does is he does a genetic test.
他通常会检查五个特定的基因。
He looks at usually five specific genes.
这些基因包括MTHFR基因、MTR基因、COMT基因和CBS基因。
These are kind of like the MTHFR gene, the MTR gene, the MTR gene, the COMT gene and the CBS gene.
你不需要了解这些基因的具体功能,我也不打算深入讲解,但我强烈建议大家去深入了解。
Now you don't necessarily need to know what any of these things do and I'm not going go dive into them, but I definitely recommend people going and digging into it.
但基本上,这些基因构成了我们的甲基化通路,帮助我们排毒、能量代谢和炎症控制。当他分析这些基因时,就能确定每个人独特所需的营养补充剂,而不是盲目地乱买,比如‘我需要维生素D’、‘我需要这个’、‘我需要那个’。
But basically these are our methylation pathways which help us detox energy metabolism, inflammation control And so when he actually looks at these he s able to determine what supplements we need on a unique personal level as opposed to us just blindly throwing darts at the board going and buying oh I need vitamin D, oh I need this, oh need that.
我认为当今世界正在发生的事情非常酷,因为我们正开始迈向个性化医疗。
And so I think what's so cool about what is happening in the world today is we're starting to get like personalized healthcare.
我们正能够制定个性化的补充剂方案,而不是仅仅依靠直觉去感觉:‘我吃了这个东西,感觉好了一点。’
We're starting to be able to have a personalized supplement protocol as opposed to us trying to listen to our intuition and feel, ah, I'm taking this thing and I think I'm feeling a little better.
对我来说,我听Gary Brecker的讲解已经好几年了,这彻底改变了我的健康状况。
So I think that for me, I've noticed I've been listening to Gary Brecker for a few years and it has profoundly changed my health.
我的健康状况得到了极大改善,一旦开始融入这些方法,我就觉得自己非常幸运。
I've profoundly changed my health and I feel really lucky once they started kind of incorporating some of this stuff.
我已经四到五年没得过感冒了。
I actually haven't had a cold in four to five years.
这个周末我得了一次,是我四五年来的第一次。
I got one this weekend and it's the first one I've had in four to five years.
因为你本来就要谈这个。
Because you were gonna be talking about it.
是的。
Yeah.
百分之百,你会谈到这个。
A 100%, you're gonna be talking about it.
但我觉得这真的非常有趣。
But I just find it really, really fascinating.
我知道我提起这一点的原因之一是,我知道,普雷斯顿,我们当面经常讨论这个问题,关于我们如何表现、如何思考补充剂,以及如何以最佳方式支持我们的身体。
And I know one of the reasons why I bring this up is because I know, Preston, you and I talk about this a lot when we're in person, just how we show up, how we think about supplementation, how do we support our bodies in the best way possible.
因此,我只是想从健康的角度提出,技术正在飞速发展,让我们能够实现更个性化的护理,因为我认为直到现在,我们还把身体看作一个单一的整体,认为所有人都需要同样的东西,但事实并非如此,有些人需要更多这种成分,有些人则需要更少,有些人可能缺乏某种营养素,所以我认为个性化的医疗方式将改变我们看待健康的方式。
And so I just wanted to kind of bring up technology from a health standpoint is advancing so rapidly that we can start to have more personalised care, because I think up until now we look at the body as this kind of like singular thing that is just like, people need this, this and this' it's just like well that's not necessarily true, some people need more of this and less of this, some people may have a deficiency in this' and so I think having a personalised healthcare approach is going to change the way I think we view health.
是的。
Yeah.
他是健康与长寿领域的重要声音。
So he's a major voice in the health longevity space.
他就是那个一直穿着负重背心的人,如果我没记错的话。
He's the guy that's wearing, like, the weighted vest around all the time, if I'm correct.
是这样吗,塞布?
Is that right, Seb?
嗯。
Yeah.
嗯。
Yeah.
嗯。
Yeah.
当你提到这些时,我首先想到的是追踪所有的DNA数据,将其输入数据库,然后利用人工智能来分析,从而获得我们以前无法理解的洞察,因为AI在模式识别复杂信息方面的能力太强大了。
The first thing that comes to mind as you mentioned all this is just tracking all of your DNA data and ingesting that into some database and then running AI on it in order to get insights that we've never really been able to understand before AI and its ability to pattern recognize so much complexity.
所以,从技术角度来看,这当然是令人兴奋的部分。
So that's the exciting part, obviously, a technology standpoint.
我知道,我们有很多来自比特币社区、关注隐私的听众。
I know we have a lot of privacy folks that listen to the show through the Bitcoin community.
当你开始走这条路——采集你的原始基因代码、你独特的遗传信息,上传到这些模型中并运行在别人的服务器上时,人们立刻会担心这些数据可能被以非常恶劣的方式使用,比如23andMe曾进行DNA检测并保存所有记录,后来这些数据被其他方获取,这正是生物识别数据收集行业所面临的问题。
And one of the things that immediately comes up when you start down this path of taking your raw code, your genetic code, your unique genetic code, and putting it into these models and running it on somebody else's servers, people have concerns as to how that could maybe be used also in a very nefarious way and could be captured by, I know this 23andMe was one that was doing DNA testing and keeping track of all of those records, and then they were procured by different parties and what happens in the business of collecting biometric data.
我认为这是一个重要的反向观点,因为和你一样,我对这一切可能带来的意义感到无比兴奋和着迷——它意味着你能获得个性化的治疗,从而延长寿命。
And I think it's an important counter talking point to some of this stuff because like you, I am super excited and super fascinated by what this could mean, what it could mean for adding years to your life because now you're finally getting custom treatment.
我认为,当你看到你提出的这一点,塞布,也就是基于个性化DNA检测的定制治疗,这将是未来五到十年医学发展的方向。
I think when you look at what you're bringing up Seb, which is this custom DNA audit and then treatment based on that is where all of medicine is going in very short order in the coming five to ten years.
我认为这有可能带来显著的长寿成果。
And I think it has the potential to lead to some serious longevity results.
我不知道该如何在保护个人隐私的同时实现这一点,比如加密数据,确保个人数据得到保护,对吧?
I don't know how you possibly go about it in a way that protects the privacy of the people or that encrypts the data and you know that the person's data is protected or whatever, right?
这变得有些令人担忧,而很多人并不愿意谈论这一面。
It gets to be somewhat concerning and a lot of people don't want to talk about that side of it.
但我认为这是一个重要的补充观点。
But I think it's an important additional note.
我想知道你是否同意,或者你只是
I'm curious if you would agree or if you just
我完全同意。
I couldn't agree more.
关于隐私,我想分享一下我以前的天真想法:当23andMe被黑客攻击时,我很幸运地在被攻击前下载了我的数据。
And to share some of my naivety on privacy previously, when 23andMe was hacked, I was lucky enough one to download my data before 23andMe was hacked.
我几年前用过23andMe。
I used 23andMe years ago.
比如
Like
大概是2018年或2019年,我当时使用23andMe纯粹是出于好奇,想知道附近有没有我的亲戚,然后试着联系他们。
2018 maybe, 2019, I think I used 23andMe purely from the perspective of, oh man I wonder if there's any relatives of mine in the area and reach out to them.
我觉得挺有意思,但最终并没有给我太多具体信息,内容比较宽泛。
And I found it interesting but ultimately it didn't really give me much information, it was a little more broad.
所以我要说,真正让我着迷的是,在我考虑隐私问题之前,我把所有下载的数据都导入了ChatGPT——我本不该这么做的,现在很后悔,但我把数据输入ChatGPT后,开始追问自己的基因信息,这真的非常有趣。
And so I would say that what I found really fascinating though is before I went down the privacy route, I took all of the downloaded data, put it into chat GBT, I probably shouldn't have and now I regret doing this, but I put it into chat GBT and then I started interrogating my own genetic information and that was really, really fascinating.
你学到了什么?
What did learn?
你有学到什么吗?
Did you learn?
嗯,我当时能问它一些问题,比如我记得——具体数字记不清了,但那是一个Word文档,大概有14,000页吧。
Well I was able to ask it like we've got and I'm meaning I can't remember off the top of my head it was something like 14, it was a word document and it was 14,000 pages if I remember correctly.
它直接把我的电脑搞瘫了,电脑根本处理不了这么多数据。
It basically just completely jammed my computer, my computer couldn't process this much information.
但当我把数据导入ChatGPT并开始提问时,我就能说:嘿,加里·布雷克,我 basically 创建了一个加里·布雷克机器人,我说:我希望你能从加里·布雷克的角度来分析我的基因。
But once I put it into ChatGPT and started interrogating the data, I was able to say, hey, at the moment Gary Brecker, I basically made a Gary Brecker bot and I said, I want you to be able to look through my genetics from the perspective of Gary Brecker.
我想让你去找MTHFR基因、MTR基因、MTR基因,查找一下是否存在突变。
I want you to go and try and find the MTHFR gene, the MTR gene, the MTR gene, go and find and see if there's a mutation.
因为他经常提到MTHFR基因。
Because one of the things he talks about is take the MTHFR gene.
如果你的MTHFR基因有突变,那么你可以服用——如果我没记错的话——是B族维生素中的B12,这样就能显著改善你的甲基化通路,从而更好地吸收营养。
If you have a mutation on this MTHFR gene, then you can take, if I remember correctly, it's one of the B complex like B12 vitamins and all of a sudden it can massively improve your methylation pathways so you're able to process nutrients.
于是我仔细查找,发现我确实有这种突变,我认为很大一部分人群都有,而仅仅通过补充B12,我就明显感觉到健康状况有了巨大改善。
So I went through, looked, found out I did have this mutation, which I think a large portion of the population do, and just by taking b twelve I noticed a huge difference in my health.
巨大的改善。
Huge difference.
就像那是其中之一
Like that was one
最大的差异之一。
of the biggest differences.
你在这条路上走得比我远多了。
You are so much further down this path than me.
我对这些东西真的很感兴趣,但老兄,你已经走得远多了。
I I'm really interested in this stuff, but, dude, you are way down the path.
这太迷人了。
That is fascinating.
所以当你接触到人工智能时,它根据你的情况发现了这一点
And so it found when you ran into the AI, it found that for you based
没错。
on Absolutely.
哇。
Wow.
我认为你能做到这一点,我应该先说明一下,可能有医生在听这个,会觉得你可能误解了这些信息,而我认为我是以一种天真的视角来看待它
And I think that you're able to this and and I should preface this by probably doctors listening to this and just being like you're probably interpreting this information wrong and I think that I'm looking at it from a naive perspective
他们也不知道,他们也不知道。
They don't know either, they don't know either.
我发现,当你拥有这些信息时,我去用了ChatGPT,首先,我删除了所有个人信息,这样它就不知道这是否一定是我。
I found it really interesting that when you have this information I went and chat GBT and first off I removed all my personal information from it so it didn't know that it was necessarily me.
我说:嘿,我正在查看这个人的数据,你能告诉我这个基因是否发生突变吗?你能从这个基因中解读出什么信息?
Was saying hey I'm looking at this data for this person, are you able to let me know is this gene mutated, what are you able to grok from this gene and such.
于是我开始深入探究这些信息。
So I started interrogating the information.
还有很多其他基因能告诉我们患某些癌症或其他问题的倾向,我们可以去探究自己的基因。
There's a lot of other genes that give us insight into do we have a prevalence of certain cancers, certain other issues, and we can go and interrogate our own genetics.
所以我认为这非常有趣,未来如果能出现更多注重隐私的AI模型,让人们可以自行探究自己的数据,那就更好了。
So I think that's really fascinating what would be nice to see in the future is more privacy focused AI models where people can go interrogate their own information.
我忍不住笑,脸上笑得停不下来,因为我在想,这位医生可能正掏出笔记本,记录下你所做的一切,以便将来也能做类似的事情。
I'm laughing and I can't get the smile off my face because I'm thinking this doctor's probably, like, pulling out a notepad and asking, you know, to take notes on what you're doing in order to, like, go and do something similar.
这太有趣了,老兄。
That's fascinating, dude.
为你点赞。
Kudos to you.
你知道吗,我担心把数据输入到ChatGPT里,不过我们先放一放。
You know, I'm concerned about, you know, ingesting the data into ChatGPT, but we'll put that aside.
我们先把这事放一边。
We'll put that over here.
顺便说一句,你最后提到的这个主意真是个很棒的商业点子。
By the way, it's a great business idea there at the end.
完全没错,完全没错。
Totally, totally.
你知道吗,我见过一些人去医生办公室,他们向医生说:‘我最近有这些症状’或者‘我有这个问题’,但在2023年4月ChatGPT出现之前,医生都会给出自己的诊断。
You know what like I've seen a few people go into their doctor's office, they go and ask them hey I've been having these symptoms or hey I've been having this issue and up until what April or whatever it was of 2023 when chat GPT came out, the doctor was giving you their interpretation.
现在,我听说有无数人走进医生办公室,提出问题后,医生会说:‘等一下’,然后在ChatGPT里输入问题,ChatGPT给出答案,医生再转述给患者。
Now I've heard of countless individuals walking to their doctor's office, they ask them a question, the doctor's like oh yeah give me one second, types into ChatGPT, ChatGPT gives it an answer and then feeds it back to the person.
所以我认为现在很多医生已经开始使用ChatGPT,因为ChatGPT能分析更广泛的数据,而医生的视野则非常狭窄、专业。
So I think a lot of the doctors now are starting to use ChatGPT because ChatGPT is able to analyse just such a wider array of data and a doctor has a very specific narrow view a field view.
嗯。
Yeah.
嗯。
Yeah.
到目前为止,人工智能其实正在训练我们。
The AI is training us at this point, man.
顺便说一句,我最近在Netflix上看了一段杰里·赛恩菲尔德的脱口秀表演。
I was as a as a funny side note, I was watching the Jerry Seinfeld stand up comedy routine on Netflix.
他讲了一个段子,说你以为是你在带着手机到处走,其实不是。
And he went on this bit where he was like, you think that you're taking the cell phone around and all the no.
他说,是手机在带着你到处走。
He said, the cell phone's taking you around.
是手机在决定你该去哪里。
That cell phone is dictating where it's sending you.
这真是个特别搞笑的段子。
It's just like this really funny bit.
但不管怎样,我认为当你开始走上这条道路时,AI和所有这些人类互动都依赖于一种希望,即AI提供的内容能快速给你答案。
But anyway, I think that when you start going down this path of, like, the AIs and, like, all these human interactions are just relying on the hope that what it's feeding it because you need a fast answer.
这其实正是问题的核心:你没有一整天的时间去寻找一百个不同的资源来证明它是错的。
That's really kind of the the crux of the issue here is you don't have all day to go find a 100 different resources to prove it wrong.
你只是需要一个快速的答案,它不必完美。
You just kinda need a quick answer, and it doesn't have to be perfect.
只要差不多够好就行。
It just has to be kinda good enough.
随着整个世界不断推动这个‘便捷按钮’,我们正在生成数据,但这些数据并不一定是人类产生的。
And, like, as the whole world continues to, like, push that easy button, like, we're creating data, but it's data that isn't necessarily human generated.
我的意思是,你看看谷歌和其他公司发布的数据,这些平台上生成的代码量有多大。
I mean, you see these numbers coming out of Google and others and the amount of code that's being generated on these platforms.
那又怎样?
And what?
现在百分之七十、八十甚至九十的代码都来自AI,而不是人类。
Seventy, eighty, 90% of the code now is coming from AI and not even humans.
嗯。
So Mhmm.
这事儿真越来越怪了,老兄。
It is getting weird, dude.
你说这些的时候,让我想到我写《金钱的隐性成本》这本书的时候,我很幸运是在AI出现之前写的。
And, you know, like, as you're saying that, it makes me think about when I wrote the Hidden Cost of Money, my book, I feel really lucky that I wrote it pre AI.
我写这本书的时候,是从我的笔记应用出发的,里面记录了我读过的几百本书的笔记。
And I wrote it from the perspective of I looked at my note taking app and I had hundreds of books that I've taken notes on.
所以当我开始写这本书时,我已经吸收了所有这些信息,然后才开始动笔。
So when I started to write it, I'd already ingested all of this information and then I started writing the book.
但现在,如果我去查看一下AI出现前后每年出版书籍的数量,我一点都不惊讶会看到一个急剧上升的曲线,人们正在大量出版这些书籍。
But now it wouldn't surprise me if we were to have a look and I haven't done this, but if we were to have a look at the amount of books written and released every single year pre AI versus post AI, we see this hockey stick where people are releasing these books.
但这并不意味着这些书里的信息具有真实性,或者经过了深入的吸收和思考,因为我可以对AI说:嘿,你能帮我写一本关于这个主题的新书吗?
But it doesn't necessarily mean that the information in these books has validity or has been deeply ingested and thought about, because I can go to AI and say, hey you know what, want to write a new book on this subject.
你能给我列出12个章节和关键要点吗?
Can you please give me the 12 chapters and the key points?
现在你能把这些写出来吗?能提供来源吗?
Now can you please write these out and can you provide sources?
但我从未去读过所有这些来源,大多数人也不会去读AI生成内容中的原始来源。
But I never went and read all of these sources, and most people don't go and read the sources from these outputs from AI.
因此,我认为其中一个挑战是我们越来越信任这个东西,却不去核实所生成信息的有效性。
And so I think one of the challenges is we're putting increasing amounts of trust into this thing and we're not actually looking at the validity of the information being produced.\
AI的垃圾内容。
AI slop.
我们短暂休息一下,听听今天赞助商的消息。
Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors.
你曾经对挖比特币感兴趣吗?
Have you ever been interested in mining Bitcoin?
作为一名矿工,我过去几个月一直在使用Simple Mining,体验非常顺畅。
As a miner myself, I've been using Simple Mining for the past few months, and the experience has been nothing short of seamless.
我选择自己喜欢的矿池进行挖矿,比特币会直接发送到我的钱包。
I mine with the pool of my choice, and the Bitcoin is sent directly to my wallet.
总部位于爱荷华州锡达福尔斯的Simple Mining提供高端一站式服务,面向从个人爱好者到大规模矿工的所有人群。
Simple Mining based in Cedar Falls, Iowa offers a premium white glove service designed for everyone from individual enthusiasts to large scale miners.
他们已运营三年半,目前管理着超过10,000台比特币矿机。
They've been in business for three and a half years and currently operate more than 10,000 Bitcoin miners.
由于风能资源丰富,位于爱荷华州的他们所使用的电力超过65%来自可再生能源。
Based in Iowa, their electricity is over 65% renewable, thanks to the abundance of wind energy.
他们不仅通过顶级托管和现场维修服务简化了挖矿流程,还通过将您的运营作为企业来帮助您实现财务收益。
Not only do they simplify mining with their top notch hosting and on-site repair services, but they also help you benefit financially by running your operations as a business.
这种模式能带来显著的税务优惠,并提升您投资的盈利能力。
This approach offers significant tax advantages and enhances the profitability of your investment.
您是否曾担心过维护矿机的复杂性?
Do you ever worry about the complexities of maintaining your mining equipment?
他们能为您全面解决这个问题。
They've got you covered.
在前十二个月内,所有维修服务均免费包含在内。
For the first twelve months, all repairs are included at no extra cost.
如果您遇到任何停机时间,他们会为您补偿。
If you experience any downtime, they'll credit you for it.
如果您的矿机目前不盈利,只需暂停即可,无需任何罚款。
And if your miners aren't profitable at the moment, simply pause them with no penalties.
当您准备升级或调整设备时,他们独家的市场平台为您提供无缝的设备转售渠道。
When you're ready to upgrade or adjust your setup, their exclusive marketplace provides a seamless way to resell your equipment.
加入我以及众多已简化比特币挖矿流程的满意矿工吧。
Join me and many satisfied miners who have simplified their Bitcoin mining journey.
立即访问 simplemining.io/preston 开始您的挖矿之旅。
Visit simplemining.io/preston to get started today.
要开始今天的操作,请访问 simplemining.io/preston。
That's simplemining.io/preston to get started today.
通过 Simple Mining,他们让一切变得简单。
With Simple Mining, they make it simple.
克莱,想象一下,借助真正理解您客户的科技来扩展您的业务。
Clay Imagine scaling your business with technology that understands your customers, literally.
这就是Alexa和AWS人工智能背后的故事。
That's the story behind Alexa and AWS AI.
每天,Alexa在17种语言中处理超过10亿次交互,同时将客户摩擦降低40%。
Every day, Alexa processes over 1,000,000,000 interactions across 17 languages, all while reducing customer friction by 40%.
这不仅仅是让生活更轻松,更是关于转变客户互动并创造新的收入来源。
It's not just about making life easier, it's also about transforming customer engagement and generating new revenue streams.
在幕后,AWS人工智能驱动着70多个专用模型协同工作,实现自然对话,证明了企业如何以自信和安全的方式大规模部署人工智能。
Behind the scenes, AWS AI powers more than 70 specialized models working together to create natural conversations, proving how enterprises can deploy AI at scale with confidence and security.
Alexa的人工智能能力在亚马逊庞大的运营中经过实战检验,实现了大规模的可衡量影响。
Alexa's AI capabilities were battle tested across Amazon's massive operations, delivering real measurable impact at scale.
这些同样的创新现在为其他企业提供了经过验证的框架,以提升效率、解锁新的收入来源并获得持久的市场优势。
These same innovations now give other businesses a proven framework to boost efficiency, unlock new revenue streams and gain a lasting market edge.
在aws.com/ai/rstory了解Alexa的故事。
Discover the Alexa story at aws.comai/rstory.
那就是aws.com/ai/rstory。
That's aws.com/ai/rstory.
你的比特币持有量越多,面临的挑战就越复杂。
The more your Bitcoin holdings grow, the more complex your challenges become.
最初简单的自托管,如今已涉及家族传承规划、复杂的安保决策,以及一个错误就可能损失数代财富的严峻局面。
What started as a simple self custody now involves family legacy planning, sophisticated security decisions, and navigating situations where a single mistake could cost generations of wealth.
标准服务并未为这些高风险的现实情况而设计。
Standard services weren't built for these high stakes realities.
因此,长期投资者选择Unchained Signature——专为认真持有比特币的人士提供的高端私人客户服务,提供专业指导、稳健托管和持久的合作关系。
That's why long term investors choose Unchained Signature, a premium private client service for serious Bitcoin holders who want expert guidance, resilient custody, and an enduring partnership.
使用Signature服务,你将拥有专属的客户经理,他们了解你的目标,并在每一步为你提供帮助。
With Signature, you're paired with your own dedicated account manager, someone who understands your goals and helps you every step of the way.
你将享受全方位的入职服务、当日紧急支持、个性化教育、降低的交易费用,以及优先参与独家活动和功能的资格。
You get white glove onboarding, same day emergency support, personalized education, reduced trading fees, and priority access to exclusive events and features.
Unchained的协作托管模式旨在为那些希望自行保管私钥的人士,提供与全球最大比特币托管机构同等的安全保障。
Unchained's collaborative custody model is designed to provide the same security posture as the world's biggest Bitcoin custodians, but for those who prefer to hold their own keys.
了解更多关于Unchained Signature的信息,请访问unchained.com/preston。
Learn more about Unchained signature at unchained.com/preston.
结账时使用代码 Preston 10,可享受第一年10%的折扣。
Use code Preston 10 at checkout to get 10% off your first year.
比特币不仅关乎一生,更关乎世代传承。
Bitcoin isn't just for life, it's for generations.
好的。
Alright.
回到节目。
Back to the show.
我们进入下一个话题。
Let's go to the next topic.
好的。
Okay.
所以你除了上第一个之外,没有其他东西了。
So and you didn't have anything else except you get on the first.
就这些。
That's it.
好的。
Okay.
我们来讨论下一个话题。
Let's go to this next topic.
我要播放一段视频,这内容挺有意思的。
So I'm gonna play a clip, and this is this is interesting stuff.
这东西太离谱了。
This is this is out there.
这可能就是我为什么要播放它的原因。
It's probably why I'm playing it.
挺有趣的。
It's fun.
好的。
Okay.
我们开始吧。
Here we go.
我的意思是,随着时间的推移,谷歌一直为追求大胆的创新项目感到自豪。
I mean, over time, at Google, we're always proud of taking moonshots.
你之前提到了Waymo。
You mentioned Waymo earlier.
你知道,那已经花了十多年的时间。
You know, that's been over a decade in the making.
你们正在研究量子计算。
You're working on quantum computing.
本着这种精神,我们的一个大胆项目是:如何在未来实现太空中建立数据中心,从而更好地利用来自太阳的能量——这比地球上今天所有能源总和还要多一万亿倍。
In that spirit, one of our moonshots is to how do we one day have data centers in space so that we can better harness the energy from the sun that is 100,000,000,000,000 times more energy than what we produce in all of Earth today.
所以我们想把数据中心建在更靠近太阳的太空,我认为我们将在2027年迈出第一步。
So we wanna put these data centers in space closer to the sun, and I think we are taking our first step in '27.
我们会先发送小型的服务器机架到卫星上进行测试,然后逐步扩大规模。
We'll send tiny racks of machines and have them in satellites, test them out, and then start scaling from there.
但我毫不怀疑,十年左右后,人们会认为在太空中建设数据中心是一种更常规的方式。
But there's no doubt to me that a decade or so away will be viewing it as a more normal way to build data centers.
好的。
Okay.
所以埃隆·马斯克转推了这条内容。
So Elon Musk retweeted this.
这就是你刚才听到的谷歌CEO。
This is the CEO of Google that you heard talking.
而埃隆·马斯克以SpaceX创始人和运营者的身份,转推了这段视频,只附上了‘有趣’两个字。
And Elon Musk retweeted that video with just text that says interesting as the SpaceX, you know, founder and operator.
好的。
Okay.
那么这一切到底怎么回事?
So what in the world is all this about?
我得坦白一件事。
So I have I have a confession.
我之前去了瑞士卢加诺参加这个Plan B会议,我们搞了一个类似‘鲨鱼坦克’的环节,听了很多项目路演。
So I was out in, Lugano, Switzerland for this plan b conference, And we did this shark tank thing where we were hearing different pitches.
我很幸运能参加其中一个小组讨论。
And I was fortunate enough to sit on one of the panels.
一位先生上台介绍了在太空中进行比特币挖矿的想法。
And a gentleman came up and he presented Bitcoin mining in space.
我一开始就觉得,这简直是个糟糕透顶的主意。
And I was just kind of like right off the bat, immediately, was like, this is just such a bad idea.
我真的无法理解,为什么有人会认真地推销这个点子。
Like, I just couldn't understand why anybody was seriously pitching this.
因为这是我第一次听说这种想法。
Because it was the first time I'd heard of this kind of idea.
当我翻看幻灯片时,有一件事特别引起我的注意:要让这个想法可行,将设备送入太空的运输成本必须降低十倍。
And when I was going through the slides, one of the things that really stuck out to me was the cost that to make this even viable, the cost for a space transport to get the hardware just into space had to drop 10 x.
如果现在把设备送上去要花一千美元,那必须降到一百美元,这个计划才有可能真正实施。
So if it's a thousand dollars to put whatever up there, you got to drop it down to a 100 before this would even be viable to even begin doing this for real.
他们向我们推销的是这家试图用比特币矿机(而不是GPU或谷歌的TPU)在太空中进行运算的公司。
And they were pitching us for investment in this company that was trying to do it with Bitcoin miners, not GPUs, which is what was being or TPUs, the Google ones being set up in the space.
因此,在准备这次讨论时,我看了那段视频后,想起了卢加诺演讲中提到的那十倍数字。
And so in preparation for this, after I watched that clip, I went and I remembered that 10 x number from the Lugano pitch.
于是我把它输入AI,问:‘要让谷歌真正实现这个目标,成本需要下降多少?’
So I put it into AI and I was like, hey, what would the cost have to be a drop for Google to really kind of execute on this?
谷歌把这个项目称为‘太阳捕手’。
And this is called project suncatcher is what this is called at Google.
果然,计算结果显示,即使对于他们打算送入太空的TPU,也需要成本下降十倍。
And sure enough, the numbers came out that it needs a 10x drop even for the TPUs that they're trying to put in the space.
所以他称这为‘登月计划’。
So he's calling it a moonshot.
我同意,这确实是一个登月计划。
I would agree, this is definitely a moonshot.
这看起来并不像是近在咫尺的事情。
This doesn't seem like this is right around the corner.
他们正在进行这次试运行。
They're doing this test run.
让我念一下我的笔记,让大家更好地理解。
Let me just read through my notes here for people so they get it.
谷歌于2025年11月初公布了‘日光捕手’项目,计划在2027年初发射两颗原型卫星。
Google unveiled project Suncatcher in early November twenty twenty five with plans to launch two prototype satellites by early twenty twenty seven.
因此,我们距离在轨测试AI硬件大约还有一到一年半的时间,并将与Planet Labs合作开展首次任务。
So we're basically a year, year and a half out to test AI hardware in orbit partnering with Planet Labs for the initial mission.
他们提到,另一个数据是:在轨道上利用太阳能的效率比在地球表面高出八倍。
They're saying that, here's another stat, it's eight times more efficient than on earth for them to harness the sun out in orbit than to be doing it down here on the cross of the earth.
初步想法,塞布,你对这些有什么看法?
Initial thoughts, Seb, what do you think of some of this?
这很有趣,因为你之前发给我一段你将要讲的内容,所以我多想了一些,首先想到的是我对比特币挖矿的理解,以及为什么在太空中进行比特币挖矿可能存在延迟问题。
It's interesting because you sent me a text just with a little snippet of what you're going to talk about and so I was thinking about it a little more and the first thing that came to mind was also my understanding of Bitcoin mining and why bitcoin mining in space there may be issues with it around latency.
因此,根据我的理解,无论你把数据中心或比特币矿机放在哪里,使用光纤等技术传输数据时,我们都被光速所限制。
So depending on where you place this data center, this bitcoin miner, from my understanding like when you're using say fiber optics and stuff like that we are capped at obviously the speed of light in terms of moving data.
所以,在低地球轨道上,信息传回地球大约需要两到十毫秒。
And so low earth orbit, it takes like two to ten milliseconds to get information back to earth.
地球静止轨道,我不确定这到底是什么,大约需要240毫秒
Geostationary orbit, I'm not even sure what this is, is like two hundred and forty milliseconds
从太空来看。
from space.
地球同步是指卫星会始终停留在地球的同一位置上方。
Geospatial is that the satellite will stay over the same spot of earth.
当地球自转时,它会一直保持在那个固定点的正上方。
As earth is rotating, will stay right over that same spot the whole time.
所以你必须在特定的半径上运行才能实现这一点,而地球同步轨道的可用范围非常狭窄,以确保它与地球保持同步。
So you have to go out at a certain radius in order to get that, and geosynchronous orbit has like there's a very small band in order to make sure that it stays synced with the earth.
这是离地球非常受欢迎且极其拥挤的距离。
It's a very popular distance from the earth and very cluttered distance from the earth.
太疯狂了。
Wild.
是啊。
Yeah.
所以这说的是240毫秒,而月球则需要两秒半。
So that says two forty milliseconds and then you got the moon, which is two and a half seconds.
如果你在火星上,那就是五到二十分钟。
And if you're out in Mars, it's like five to twenty minutes.
所以从比特币挖矿的角度来看,如果你在太空中挖出一个区块,当你实际传播或推送该区块到区块链时,地球上的人可能已经找到了另一个区块,而所有人都会基于最新的区块继续构建。
So the issue is, from a Bitcoin mining perspective, if you mine a block in space, by the time you actually propagate that block or push that block to the blockchain, someone on earth may have already found a block and everyone builds on obviously the newest block.
因此,仅仅因为身处太空,你就已经处于劣势。
So you've got a disadvantage already just by being in space.
所以我一直在想,这和在太空中建立数据中心有什么关系?
So I was thinking about it like, well, how does this relate to being a data center in space?
我认为它可能适用于某些类型的信息,但不适用于其他类型的信息。
And I think that it probably works for certain types of information, but it doesn't work for other types of information.
因此,任何涉及实时交互、毫秒级响应的应用,比如高频交易、多人游戏、区块链挖矿,我认为我们不会在太空中使用这些。
So anything that is dealing with real time interactions, millisecond responses like high frequency trading, multiplayer gaming, blockchain mining, I don't think we'd be using that for the space.
但我认为,像AI模型训练、大规模模拟和批量处理海量数据这类涉及更大规模概念的应用,可能会产生深远影响。
But I think that anything that is dealing with some of these bigger ideas of AI model training, large scale simulations and batch processing huge amounts of information, I think it could be profound.
你发给我那段文字时,我就想到了这一点。
That's kind of what came up as you sent that over to me in a text.
我几年前采访过一位宇航员,天哪,是蒂姆·科普拉。
So I interviewed an astronaut, oh my goodness, a bunch of years ago, Tim Coppra.
蒂姆告诉我一件有趣的事,我不确定他是上节目时说的,还是私下告诉我的。我和他很多年前一起参加过伯克希尔·哈撒韦的股东会,这些年来他给我讲了很多故事。
And one of the interesting things that Tim told me, I don't know if he told me this on the show or told me this privately, him and I attended a Berkshire Hathaway shareholders meeting many years ago, and he's told me a bunch of stories throughout the years.
我印象最深的一件事是,当他们在建造国际空间站时,他曾进行过一次太空行走。
One of the things I remembered that stuck in my head is when they were working on the International Space Station, they would go out, he did a spacewalk.
他说,当你出舱进行太空行走,回到舱内脱下所有装备时,你手里拿着锤子、工具等所有东西,必须非常小心,别在进来时撞到锤子之类的工具,因为温度——我忘了具体的阈值是多少。
He said that when you went out and did a spacewalk and came back in and you're in the chamber taking off all the gear and you have a hammer, you have all your tools, like all those things, you had to be very careful that you didn't bump into, call it the hammer, when you came in and the temperature I forget what the threshold of the temperatures are.
温度在正负几百摄氏度之间剧烈变化。
It's hundreds and hundreds of degrees in both directions of hot and cold.
温度每四十五分钟就会变化一次,因为你们绕地球运行的速度就是这么快,至少在国际空间站的高度是这样。
And the temperature is changing every forty five minutes because that's how fast you're going around the planet, at least at that distance for the ISS.
他们可能四十五分钟在阳光下,四十五分钟在地球的阴影里,然后又是四十五分钟在阳光下。
They might be forty five minutes in the sun, forty five minutes on the dark side of the earth, and then forty five minutes in the sun again.
工具和所有设备的温度每四十五分钟就在正负几百摄氏度之间剧烈波动。
And the temperature of the tools and all of your equipment is swinging by hundreds of degrees in both directions every forty five minutes.
因此,当我身处卢加诺时,我记起了蒂姆说过的话,从可靠性角度来看,我思考的是硬件问题。
And so my question when I was in Lugano was I remembered this from Tim, and I'm thinking from a reliability standpoint, the hardware.
你能想象吗?这些硬件每四十五分钟就经历一次如此剧烈的温度循环,从可靠性角度看,这恐怕会带来灾难性的后果。
Could you imagine just that hardware cycling through those temperature changes every forty five minutes and what that would do to the hardware from a reliability standpoint, I would think would be disastrous.
于是我问了这个人这个问题,他说,有些轨道可以让卫星更多地处于阳光照射下,而不是每四十五分钟就交替一次明暗。
So I asked this guy that question, and he said that there's orbits that you can put the satellites in that will keep it more in the sun than it's cycling every 45 on, forty five minutes off.
这就是他在那次谈话中给我的回答。
So that was his answer to me during the thing.
但对我来说,我也只是从可靠性角度来思考这个问题。
But I guess for me, I'm also looking at it just from a reliability standpoint.
也许实际情况并没有那么严苛。
Maybe it's not as harsh.
也许这种环境反而更好。
Maybe this is a better environment.
我不知道。
I don't know.
这是一个非常有趣的话题,但我始终无法忽视的一点是,必须依靠成本降低十倍才能将它送入轨道。
It's a fascinating discussion, but the point that I could never get over was the reliance on the price reduction going down by 10x just to get it into orbit.
然后它还必须正常工作,而可靠性和其他所有因素相比之下都成了次要问题。
Then it's got to work and the reliability and all these other things that are completely secondary to this massive hurdle.
而且他说这简直是一次登月计划。
And I mean, he's calling it a moonshot.
我觉得他们进行这次试运行真的非常有趣。
Think it's really fascinating that they're doing a test run on this.
至于它的实际可行性以及是否真的能实现,我真的不知道。
As far as the actual viability and whether it's actually going to happen, I just I don't know.
这看起来实在太不切实际了。
It seems like it's just so out there.
你这么说的时候,我想起几年前读过一些东西,我刚刚在谷歌上查了一下,好像叫凯斯勒综合症,意思是随着我们送入太空的物体越来越多,就像我们在地球上看到的那样——太阳能电站那么多,只要一场巨大的冰雹,就能摧毁价值数亿美元的太阳能设备。
As you're saying that, I remember reading something years ago and I think as I was just looking up on Google, I think it's called Kessler syndrome and it's this idea that the more stuff we send into space, like we obviously already see on earth, like the amount of solar farms, all you need is a giant hailstorm, and you've just decimated, like, of dollars of solar, basically solar equipment.
嗯。
Mhmm.
那么,当小行星带飞过时,会发生什么情况呢?我不确定,但会不会直接摧毁大量这类物质?
Well, what happens in space when an asteroid belt kinda comes, I don't know, flying through and just kinda, like, decimates a whole bunch of this material?
然后,这些太空垃圾以每小时数万公里的速度四处飞溅,不断撞击所有这些卫星。
And then you've got all of this space junk flying around at speeds in excess of tens of thousands of kilometers an hour and they're just nailing into all of these satellites.
我们把这么多东西送入太空,会不会在未来阻碍我们进一步探索太空的能力?
Is there a point whereby us sending all of this stuff up into space we're impeding our ability in the future to be able to go further afield and such.
是的。
Yeah.
显然,这应该不是太大的问题,因为如果他们不认为这是条可行的路径,即使要克服像发射成本降低10倍这样的障碍,他们也不会费这么大劲。
Evidently, it must not be too much of a concern because I don't think that they would be going through any of these hoops if they didn't think that it was a very viable path if they could overcome some of those hurdles like the 10x reduction in the space cost for launch.
我们继续下一个吧。
Let's go on to the next one.
如果你正在关注这件事,并且愿意分享一些信息,我非常乐意了解更多。
And if you are a person who's tracking this and you wanna share some information, I would love to learn more.
我觉得整个这件事、整个想法都超级迷人。
I find this whole thing, this whole idea just super fascinating.
好的。
Okay.
你想谈谈定制化学习,是吗?
You wanted to talk about custom learning.
对吗,塞布?
Is that right, Seb?
对。
Yeah.
好的。
Okay.
我们来谈这个吧。
Let's do this one.
是的,简而言之,有人发帖提到了一位叫斯蒂夫的女士,S T E H U T,她问人工智能对学习领域有什么作用?
Yeah, so long story short, someone ended up posting a lady called Steph, S T E H U T and she was asking about what does AI do for the world of learning?
我觉得这个特别特别有趣。
And this one here I find really, really fascinating.
所以我一直在研究,就在想,现在AI在学习领域到底在哪里呢?
So I was kind of digging around and I was just like, I wonder where is AI in the world of learning right now?
就连我自己的学习经历来说,能够有一个AI助手根据我的好奇心向我推送信息,这帮助我以一种完全不同的视角理解世界。
And even from my own personal learning, being able to have this AI bot feed me information about my curiosities has helped me understand the world from such a different lens.
所以,经过一点研究后,我发现好像是在九月份,谷歌发布了一款叫‘Google的个性化学习’的产品。
So anyway, as I kind of did a little bit of digging, it turns out that I think it was back in September Google released something called Google's Learn Your Way.
本质上,这就像一个动态的、个性化的导师,能根据每个人的节奏、兴趣和背景进行调整。它可以将那些一成不变的、千篇一律的教科书内容,根据你的年级、兴趣和学习偏好,转化为思维导图、音频课程、叙事式幻灯片和互动测验。
Now in essence this is basically like a living dynamic tutor that's tailored to each individual's kind of pace, their interests, their background, and so it can take and ingest these like static one size fits all textbooks and it's able to take that material and convert it into basically depending on your grade level, your interests, your learning preferences, it's able to create mind maps, audio lessons, narrative slides, interactive quizzes.
在我看来,这可能会彻底改变我们的教育体系。
And so the way that I'm seeing this is this could profoundly change our educational systems.
目前,当我们回溯学校教育体系的起源时,我们会发现它源自维多利亚时代,当时我们试图培养一支劳动力队伍。
At the moment when we think about what is the school system, when you go all the way back, we've come from a bit of a Victorian era where we were trying to create a labor workforce.
我们希望人们完成非常具体的工作,铃声一响就切换到下一个任务,而这种模式并没有真正激发好奇心。
We want people to do very specific tasks and when the bell rings you move on to the next task and it didn't really incite curiosity.
所以我觉得特别酷的是,随着人工智能逐渐接管大量知识型工作,未来机器人也可能接管部分体力劳动,我认为人类真正擅长的领域在于更具创造性的方面。
And so what's really cool about this is I think as AI is taking over a lot of the knowledge worker space, as robotics in the future is going to take over potentially some of the labor space, I think where humans thrive is in more of the creative space.
因此,我认为这些AI导师将深刻改变孩子们培养好奇心的方式——想象一下,在课堂上却始终拥有一位一对一的老师随时支持你。
So I think some of these AI tutors are going to profoundly change the way kids are able to be curious because imagine being in a classroom but essentially having a one on one teacher at all times being able to support you.
所以,当你遇到一个问题,不管是数学、物理还是生物问题,如果它能根据你的兴趣来调整表达方式,这将极大提升你的学习能力。
And so if you're getting a question, I don't know a math question or a physics question or a biology question, and then they're able to phrase it in line with your interests, that is hugely going to increase your ability to learn.
目前在早期测试中,学生在记忆测试中的回忆率已经提升了百分之十一以上,对我来说,我当时想:‘哇,这好像有点低啊,我原本以为能提升好几百个百分点’,但我同时也相信,随着这项技术变得更加高效,孩子们能够以更契合自身水平和理解方式的方式获取信息,这一数字还会继续上升。
So already in very early tests it looks like students are increasing their recall rates by eleven percent plus just on recall tests and to me I was like, woah that's quite low, I was expecting it to be like hundreds of percent, but I also one:thirty believe that that is only going to increase as this technology becomes far more efficient and kids are able to communicate in a way that gets information that
这与他们的水平和理解能力相匹配。
is in alignment with their level and their understanding and such.
我很想听听你的看法。
I'm curious to hear your thoughts on it.
让我们短暂休息一下,听听今天赞助商的介绍。
Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors.
你知道是什么让最优秀的企业脱颖而出吗?
You know what sets the best businesses apart?
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它们通过利用创新,将复杂性转化为增长。
It's how they leverage innovation to turn complexity into growth.
亚马逊广告正是这样做的,其背后是 AWS 人工智能的支持。
That's exactly what Amazon Ads is doing, powered by AWS AI.
每天,亚马逊广告处理数十亿次实时决策,优化着一个价值 310 亿美元的广告生态系统中的广告表现。
Every day, Amazon Ads processes billions of real time decisions, optimizing ad performance across a $31,000,000,000 advertising ecosystem.
其结果是,广告活动运行速度提升 30%,并能大规模带来可衡量的业务影响。
The result is campaigns that run 30% faster and deliver measurable business impact at scale.
而这也是亚马逊自身实现增长的方式。
And this is how Amazon itself drives growth.
它们的代理式人工智能将营销从一个资源密集型流程转变为智能自主系统,最大化投资回报率,并赋能营销人员专注于创意与战略。
Their agentic AI transforms marketing from a resource heavy process into an intelligent autonomous system that maximizes ROI and empowers marketers to focus on creativity and strategy.
亚马逊广告正在证明,人工智能驱动的广告不仅是未来,更是新的竞争优势。
Amazon Ads is proving that AI driven advertising isn't just the future, it's the new competitive advantage.
更棒的是,每一家企业都可以应用亚马逊内部精心打磨的同一套创新方法论。
And better yet, every enterprise can apply the same innovation playbook that Amazon perfected in house.
在 aws.com/ai/rstory 查看 Amazon Ads 的故事。
See the Amazon Ads story at aws.comai/rstory.
网址是 aws.com/ai/rstory。
That's aws.com/ai/rstory.
初创公司行动迅速。
Startups move fast.
借助 AI,它们交付速度更快,并更早吸引企业客户。
And with AI, they're shipping even faster and attracting enterprise buyers sooner.
但大单会带来更大的安全和合规要求。
But big deals bring even bigger security and compliance requirements.
SOC 2 并不总是足够。
A SOC two isn't always enough.
适当的安全措施可以促成或破坏一笔交易。
The right kind of security can make a deal or break it.
但哪位创始人或工程师能抽时间离开公司建设呢?
But what founder or engineer can afford to take time away from building their company?
Vanta 的人工智能和自动化功能可在数天内轻松为大单做好准备。
Vanta's AI and automation make it easy to get big deals ready in days.
Vanta 持续监控您的合规状态,确保未来的交易不会受阻。
And Vanta continuously monitors your compliance so future deals are never blocked.
此外,Vanta 随您一同成长,并在每一步都提供及时的支持。
Plus Vanta scales with you, backed by support that's there when you need it every step of the way.
随着人工智能改变法规和买家的期望,Vanta 知道何时需要什么,并已打造了最快、最便捷的路径,助您达成目标。
With AI changing regulations and buyers' expectations, Vanta knows what's needed and when, and they've built the fastest, easiest path to help you get there.
因此,认真的初创公司都会尽早通过 Vanta 实现安全合规。
That's why serious startups get secure early with Vanta.
我们的听众可在 vanta.com/billionaires 获得 1000 美元优惠。
Our listeners get $1,000 off at vanta.com/billionaires.
访问 vanta.com/billionaires,立减 1000 美元。
That's vanta.com/billionaires for $1,000 off.
新的一年到了,这是最终实现您梦想创业的最好时机。
It's the new year, which means that it's the best time to finally start the business you've been dreaming about.
就在几年前,我创办了自己的电子商务业务,而Shopify正是我起步时需要的工具。
Just a couple years ago, I launched my own e commerce business and Shopify was exactly the tool I needed to get started.
尽管许多人不断推迟自己的梦想,等到明年再行动,但我在这里要告诉你,现在就是抓住眼前机遇的时候。
While many people continually push off their dreams until the next year, I am here to tell you that now is the time to capitalize on the opportunities right in front of you.
Shopify为你提供了在线和线下销售所需的一切。
Shopify gives you everything you need to sell online and in person.
数百万创业者,包括我自己,都已经从普通人跃升为刚刚起步的创业者。
Millions of entrepreneurs, including myself, have already made this leap from household names to first time business owners just getting started.
你可以从数百个精美的模板中选择,并自定义它们,同时使用其内置的AI工具撰写产品描述或编辑产品图片。
Choose from hundreds of beautiful templates that you can customize and use their built in AI tools to write product descriptions or edit product photos.
随着你的成长,Shopify也会在每一步与你共同成长。
And as you grow, Shopify grows with you every step of the way.
在2026年,别再等待,立即用Shopify开始销售吧。
In 2026, stop waiting and start selling with Shopify.
立即注册每月1美元的试用版,今天就开始在shopify.com/wsb上销售。
Sign up for your $1 per month trial and start selling today at shopify.com/wsb.
前往 shopify.com/wsb。
Go to shopify.com/wsb.
那就是 shopify.com/wsb。
That's shopify.com/wsb.
在新的一年里,让 Shopify 伴你开启新篇章。
Hear your first this new year with Shopify by your side.
好的。
All right.
回到节目。
Back to the show.
我认为这一切的重大突破在于人工智能能够感知孩子是如何学习的。
I think the big breakthrough on all of this is going to be just the AI's ability to sense how the child learns.
看看你的孩子,任何有孩子的人都知道,每个孩子之间的学习方式都非常不同。
Just look at your kids, anybody that's got kids, you know, between one and the other, they learn very differently.
有些孩子需要通过例子来学习。
Some have to go through examples.
有些人必须,你知道,每个人的学习方式都不同。
Some have to, you know everybody has a different way of learning.
我给你举个例子。
I'll give you an example.
我喜欢有声书。
I love audiobooks.
我更喜欢有声书而不是实体书,实际上我更喜欢阅读,当我翻页的时候。
I prefer an audiobook over the physical I actually I prefer reading to me as I'm flipping the pages ultimately.
但如果必须在两者之间选一个,我其实更喜欢音频版本,因为我就是这种学习方式,学得更好一点,每个人都不一样。
But if I had to choose one over the other, would actually prefer the audio version because I just kinda learn that way a little bit better, and it's different for everybody.
所以举个例子,AI将会学习这些不同的人所使用的技术,或者最适合他们的方法,这是最好的表达方式。
And so just as an example, the AI is gonna learn these different techniques that people have or that's most optimal for them, the best way to frame it.
举个有趣的例子,当我还在西点军校上学时,我们总是参加一些考试,题目都是以这样的方式呈现的:比如在数学课上,题目会说,你有一枚炮弹,你要把它射向某个目标。
As a funny example, when I was a student at the military academy at West Point, we would always have these tests that were framed from like if you're in a math class, it was like, you have an artillery round and you're going to shoot it at whatever.
而且这些题目总是用某种军事场景来表述。
And it was like always framed for some type of military example.
我们总是翻白眼,心想:天哪,你能不能给个正常的题目,别总是搞这些军事相关的?
We would always roll our eyes and be like, oh my God, can you just give us a normal question and not some military type question?
但我用这个例子来说明如何设定问题的背景。
But I use that as an example to frame the framing of the thing.
假设你的孩子喜欢足球,或者你的女儿喜欢跳舞,或者其他任何事情。
Let's say your kid is he loves football or your daughter loves dance or whatever.
这些例子完全可以根据他们真正感兴趣的内容和思维方式来设计。
Like, the examples could always be framed in a way that is exactly what they wanna hear and how they want to think about it.
对吧?
Right?
所以我觉得这一点将会非常重要。
So I think that that's gonna be huge.
现在我认为还欠缺的一点是,在新冠疫情期间,孩子们不得不通过Zoom在线上课。
Now the part that I think is still lacking, when we went through COVID, the kids had to do online Zoom call like classes.
说实话,塞布,那简直是一团糟。
And to be quite honest with you, Seb, it was disastrous.
就像,那简直是一场灾难。
Like, it was just it was a train.
任何经历过面对面教育和通过电脑屏幕学习的人,都会知道电脑屏幕有一些优势,但面对面学习也有很多优势。
Anybody who's gone to in person education versus learning through a computer screen, like there's some advantages for the computer screen, but there's a lot of advantages to in person.
我想知道,一旦你开始深入探讨——我不确定每个人都会同意这一点,但也许类人机器人AI会有所不同,因为你是在进行面对面的互动。
And I wonder if once you start getting into I don't know that everybody would agree with this, but maybe the humanoid robot AI is going to maybe have a difference because you're having a in person interaction.
所以,一旦到了
And so Once where
我们十年、十五年或二十年后,会在AI的这些想法上走到哪一步呢?
are we in ten or fifteen or twenty years with respect to some of these ideas with AI
你可以把东西带到真实环境中,去黑板前,或者去户外活动,亲眼看看各种东西。
you put something into the physical environment and you could go over to a chalkboard or you could go on a field day and you could see whatever.
我不知道。
I don't know.
我认为,当学习开始融入物理空间,而不仅仅是总盯着电脑屏幕时,学习就会进入一个全新的层次。
I think that the learning kinda takes on a whole new level when you start incorporating it into physical space versus just always looking at something on a computer screen.
也许你可以在VR环境中做到这一点。
And maybe you can do that with a VR environment.
我个人不喜欢这些戴在脸上的东西。
I personally don't like these things on my face.
我觉得它们非常烦人,但有些人可能喜欢,或者也能通过这种方式学习。
I find them to be highly annoying, but some people might like it or learn that way as well.
我觉得你说得非常对,这是一个非常重要的观点。因为当我们讨论这些科技播客中的任何一点时,我们往往在谈论最新的技术以及它如何影响我们,但任何与我们和我们的世界互动、影响我们行为的事物,都必然有其利弊。
I think you are spot on and I think that's a really important point to mention because I think that when we're talking about any of these points in any of these tech podcasts we do, we're kind of talking about what is the newest technology and how it's impacting us, but there's always going to be pros and cons to everything that kind of interacts with us and our world and how we show up.
当我想到教育时,我认为知识只是其中一方面,但当我们上学时,我们与同龄人在一起,与老师互动,这其中还包含了人际连接。
And what I think about when I think about education is that the knowledge is one aspect of it, but when we're in school, we're around our peers, when we're interacting with our teacher, there is also the human connection.
我认为,在我们成长的求学阶段,我们也在学习如何调节自己的神经系统。
And I think part of during our developmental years while we're in school, we're also learning how to regulate our nervous system.
因此,我们与老师共同调节情绪,当老师平静而稳定时,这有助于我们的学习。那么,当我们用数字实体取代这些真实的人时,这会带来什么影响呢?
And so we're co regulating with the teacher, the teacher when they're calm and grounded that helps us learn and so what does that do when we're replacing these physical beings with this digital entity?
这个数字实体能够具备情感吗?
Is that digital entity going to be able to be emotional?
它们会具备那种同理心和支持他们的能力吗?
Are they going to have that empathy and that capacity to support them?
还是说,你根本无法用数字实体来替代这种联系?
Or can you just completely not replace that with a digital entity?
从共鸣的角度来看,我们所互动的东西要多得多。
Like, there's far more from a resonance perspective that we're interacting with.
而这正是我觉得非常有趣的地方。
And and that's that's what I find really interesting.
我完全同意。
I wholeheartedly agree.
我告诉你,我妻子听到我说‘哦,是的’时,
I'd tell you my wife, hearing me say, oh, yeah.
你竟然会让一个AI人形机器人来教她,她一定会对此感到厌恶。
You're gonna have an AI humanoid robot, like, teaching the she would just be disgusted by such a comment.
我认为,有很多人可能会说:天哪。
And I think that there's a lot of people out there that probably would be like, oh my god.
这听起来像是一个绝对可怕的功能。
That sounds like a absolute nightmare of a feature.
而且,嘿,也许它对某些人来说确实是个噩梦,我不确定,但我能理解为什么有些人会需要这些功能,因为我觉得从中学到的个性化教育,远比一个精通历史、凡事都带着历史视角的老师要出色得多,而那个学生可能根本讨厌历史。
And, hey, maybe it is a nightmare of a few I don't I don't know, but I can see the demand for some of these things taking place because I think that the the customized education that you're gonna get out of that is so far superior than some teacher that is an expert in history and everything comes with a history lens and maybe the student that they're teaching hates history.
根本受不了历史,结果一整年你坐在那里,和另外30个学生一起,所有内容都被打上了历史的烙印。
Can't stand history and then everything is flavored with history for an entire year as you're sitting there with 30 other students.
所以我认为,当我们回望你我成长过程中所接受的教育时,会发现它将显得如此过时,我认为无论人们是否喜欢,教育的未来都将朝这个方向发展。
And so I think that when we look back at the education that you and I, you know, grew up with, it's gonna be so archaic to where I think a lot of this is going, whether people like that.
完全同意,而且有句著名的佛教格言是说,你不该用爬树的能力来评判一条鱼,我觉得学校系统对我来说,我百分百就是那条鱼,更像是一块躺在地上的石头,根本不可能爬得上树。
Totally and there's that famous, I think it's the Buddhist quote which is like, you shouldn't judge a fish by its ability to climb a tree and it's just like I think the school system, I was 100% the fish, was craving less so a fish as a rock just laying on the floor, there was no way that I could climb a freaking tree.
所以对我来说,上学时我从没觉得自己属于那里,但一旦离开学校,我找到了有声读物,才发现了自己真正适合的学习方式。
And so I think that school to me, I never felt like I fit in, once I left school and I was able to find audio books, I was able to find my ability to find how I learn.
天啊,那真是意义深远。
Oh my God, it was it was profound.
阿门。
Amen.
所以我认为,我们该如何在个性化学习和人际连接之间找到平衡呢?我认为最大的问题就是这个。
So I think that how do we find this balance between I think the biggest question is it's like, how do we find this balance between, like, personalized learning while also having human connection?
我认为,我们至今还没有找到这种平衡。
And I think I think that's something that we really haven't found that balance yet.
我经常和人们聊天,他们问我:‘你上学时是个什么样的学生?’
I have conversations with people all the time and they ask me, oh, what kind of student were you present?
说实话,塞布,我讨厌学校。
And to be honest with you, Seb, I hated school.
我讨厌它,因为我从没觉得学过任何我真正感兴趣的东西。
I hated it because I didn't feel like I was ever learning something that I actually had an interest in.
我总是被迫接受一些我毫无兴趣的内容,而且这些内容从不以让我感兴趣的方式呈现。
I was always being force fed this stuff that I had no interest in, and it was never framed in a way that interested me.
是啊。
Yeah.
我大学毕业后的经历也是一样。
And same experience after I got out of college.
我只是开始阅读一些我真正想深入了解的东西,然后我就爱上了,因为我专注于自己想学的内容。
I just started reading things that, like, I wanted to know more about, and then I just loved it because I was focusing on things that I wanted to learn about.
而在整个高中时期,我从未有过这样的体验。
And just truly never had that experience the whole time in high school.
我在大学里确实喜欢工程课,但除此之外,那些我不得不修的课程——比如,我大学时还被迫选了一门诗歌课,班上都是些,你知道的,我们当时多大?
And, I mean, I enjoyed the engineering classes I had in college, but beyond that, like all the other stuff that I I literally had to take a poetry class in college with a bunch of, you know, how old were we?
18、19岁的男生们,站在教室里互相朗读莎士比亚。
18, 19 year old dudes all standing in, you know, a classroom reading Shakespeare to each other.
天啊。
Like, good god.
杀了我吧。
Shoot me.
那真是最糟糕的经历,因为我根本不喜欢那种东西。
Like, it was the worst it was the worst experience ever because I I don't like that stuff.
对不起。
I'm sorry.
如果你喜欢这些东西,我很抱歉。
If you love if you love that stuff, I'm sorry.
我不喜欢这些东西。
I don't like that stuff.
而这正是学习这件事的核心——人们终于可以投身于自己真正感兴趣的事物。
And that's that's to the whole point of this learning thing is, like, people can lean into finally lean into things that really interest them.
我简直无法想象,如果从小就开始这样做,并持续二十年,一个人始终被引导去探索他真正感兴趣的主题,而且由世界上最好的老师来教授他所热爱的X和Z领域,会是什么样子。
And, like, I can't even imagine what that's gonna do from if you start that out early and you do it for twenty years where the person is being led down a thing that actually interests them, and you're being taught by the world's greatest teacher on subject x, and z that that person's interested in.
我无法想象,当他们到了二十岁左右时,会取得怎样的成果。
I cannot even imagine what those results would look like by the time they're, you know, 20 years old.
但问题就在这里。
That's the thing though.
只是在努力寻找那个平衡点。
It's just trying to find that balance.
我完全同意,但问题是,我们该如何实现这一点?
I I wholeheartedly agree, and it's just like, how do we achieve that?
我们如何找到这种平衡?
How do we find this balance?
人性的温度与技术。
The human touch and technology.
这是一个具有挑战性的问题。
This is a challenging one.
总会有取舍。
There's always a give and a take.
是的。
Yeah.
我有几个关于人工智能的话题想提一下。
I have a couple AI topics that I wanted to bring up.
第一个,我会在这里的屏幕上展示出来。
The first one, and I'm gonna put up here on the screen.
这个来自著名的AI人士安德烈·卡帕西。
This one's from Andre Kaparthi, the very famous AI.
他曾短暂担任特斯拉的AI负责人,后来成为OpenAI的创始人之一。
He was head of AI at Tesla for a little bit, and then he was one of the founders at OpenAI.
说实话,在我看过的所有教AI的YouTube视频中,他可能是我最欣赏的网络人士。
To be quite honest with you, of the YouTube videos I've watched of people teaching AI, he is probably my favorite of anybody on the Internet.
他是一位非常出色的老师,能把复杂的内容讲得通俗易懂。
He is such a great teacher, and he makes things so accessible.
他发过一条推文,我觉得这条推文非常有趣,值得在这里特别提一下。
And he had this tweet, and I just think that it's kind of really interesting tweet, and I think it's worthy of highlighting here.
他说,不要把大语言模型当作有意识的实体,而应将其视为模拟器。
He says, don't think of LLMs large language models as entities, but as simulators.
例如,在探索一个话题时,不要问:‘你对X、Y和Z有什么看法?’
For example, when exploring a topic, don't ask, what do you think about x, y, and z?
这里没有‘你’。
There's no you.
下次试试问:‘什么样的人群最适合探讨X、Y和Z?’
Next time, try, what would be a good group of people to explore x, y, and z?
他们会怎么说?
What would they say?
大型语言模型可以模拟多种视角,但它并没有像我们习惯的那样,长时间思考过x、y和z并形成自己的观点。
The LLM can channel simulate many perspectives, but it hasn't thought about x, y, and z for a while and over time and formed its own opinions in the way we're used to.
如果你通过使用‘你’来强迫它,它会根据其微调数据的统计特性,采用一个隐含的人格嵌入向量,然后模拟这种人格。
If you force it via the use of you, it will give you something by adopting a personality embedding vector implied by the statistics of its fine tuning data and then simulate that.
这样做没问题,但其神秘感远没有人们天真地向AI提问时所赋予的那么大。
It's fine to do, but there's a lot less mystique to it than I find people naively attribute to asking an AI.
所以他的主要观点是:不要说‘你怎么看’。
So his big point here is don't say what do you think.
他建议人们说:‘谁是最适合对此发表意见的群体?’
He's suggesting people say, who would be the best group of people to have an opinion on this?
然后问AI:‘这个群体的人会怎么想?’
And then ask the AI, what would this group of people think?
我觉得这种方法很有用也很重要,它触及了那些真正编程实现这些系统的人的核心。
I find that to be useful and important, and it gets to the heart of a person who's literally, like, programmed these things.
他正在揭示某种偏见,这种偏见能帮你获得更清晰、更准确的答案,而这正是你所追求的。
He's getting at something that is showing you a bias that will give you a cleaner and more accurate answer that you're going after.
所以我认为这一点对人们来说很重要。
So I think that that's important for people to understand.
对此有什么评论吗?
Any comments there?
如果我们有时间,我们可以讨论一下这个话题,这涉及到我们俩都听过的CEO日记播客,他在Deo中提到的一个观点让我觉得非常有趣,这个观点与我们当前讨论的内容一致:如果我们使用社交媒体,我们的算法会根据我们的兴趣推送信息。
There's so we may talk about this if we have time, and it's around kind of this idea of it was a diary of a CEO podcast that both of us have listened to and something that he mentioned in Deo that I thought was really interesting that kind of is in alignment with this is this idea that if we go on social media, our algorithm is giving us information based upon our interests.
它并不一定提供客观的信息。
It's not necessarily giving us the objective information.
他还讨论了这样一个观点:如果你去问AI,它对某个有争议的话题有什么看法?
And what he also discussed is this idea that if you go and ask AI what does it think about maybe this controversial subject?
根据你的地理位置,如果某个地区的人持有截然不同的观点,AI就会给出那个地区的答案。
Depending on your location, if in one location they have very different views, it's going to give you that answer.
如果你在另一个地区,它就会给出不同的答案。
If you're in another location, it's going to give you a different answer.
所以我觉得有趣的是,你得弄清楚如何提示AI,以获得最客观的答案。
So I think the thing that is interesting is that you've got to figure out how to prompt AI to give you the most objective answer.
这是我个人发现的一点,我很想听听你的看法,因为我一直在使用AI,并且能够给AI设定一个角色。
So this is something that I've personally found and I'm curious to hear your thoughts as I've been using AI, being able to give the AI a persona.
比如说,‘我希望你以一位精通X、Y和Z的专家开发者的身份提供你的观点’,我想听到这样的视角。
So saying like, hey, I want your perspective if you were say an expert developer that has a knowledge in X, Y and Z, I want that perspective.
因此,能够通过特定的视角来看待问题,我认为人们并没有要求AI从特定视角出发分析问题,而AI只会给出它认为你希望听到的答案,从而让我们更依赖AI。
And so being able to look at it through a specific lens and I don't think people ask AI to look at something through a specific lens And with that in mind, it's just gonna give us what it thinks we want to hear so that we're just more attentive to AI.
是的。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
我们稍后在节目中会播放这段采访的几个片段。
And we are gonna play a couple clips from that interview here later on in the show.
但没错,非常精彩的评论。
But, yeah, outstanding comment.
下一个话题有点政治性,我提出来是因为我觉得这个话题挺有意思的。
This next one's a little political, and I'm just I'm bringing it up because I I find it kind of an interesting topic.
总统最近出面,试图剥夺各州的权利。
The president has recently come out and he's trying to take away the state's rights.
我们美国有50个不同的州,每个州似乎都在制定自己的人工智能法律和规定。
So we have 50 different states here in The US and they all seem to be coming up with their own AI laws and rules.
而总统现在打算本周发布一项行政命令,强制所有州服从联邦层面的人工智能法规,以统一我们国家在这方面的做法。
And the president is now trying to say that there's going to be an executive order on AI this week that forces all of the states to fall under the federal level AI mandate of how we're going to go about this as a country.
作为一个坚定支持州权、主张尽可能将责任从联邦政府下放至州层级的人,这一点让我很痛心。
And as a person that firmly believes in states' rights and pushing responsibility as much out of the federal government and down to the state level as possible, this one pains me.
但与此同时,我也在思考,我理解这种逻辑:我们正处在一场全球竞赛中,面对的是其他超级大国的快速推进,不可能让一个州占优势而另一个州处于劣势。
But at the same time, I'm also looking at it and I understand the logic that we're in a global race and you're up against some other superpowers that are moving out and not in a situation that one state is advantageous, the other one is not.
于是大型科技公司会选择在更有利的州设立据点,但它们也担心当地政局的变动和政策的不稳定性。
So then the big tech companies set up shop and the one that's advantageous, but they also are concerned about the whims of that local government shifting and changing.
因此,它们不得不将整个基础设施迁移到另一个现在看起来对商业更有利的州。
And then they have to move all of this infrastructure to another state that now looks like it's more advantageous for doing business there.
我认为,我猜测正在发生的是,总统正受到大型科技公司的压力,要求他们出台一项统一的政策。
And I think what I suspect what's happening is the president is getting pressured by the big tech companies to have something that's unilateral across the board.
他们再也不用担心,在某个州XYZ被‘抽走地毯’,从而不得不将巨额资本支出转移到另一个州,还要承担成本、开支,最重要的是,转换到另一个州所需的时间。
They never have to think about, my words, getting rug pulled in state XYZ, so that they have to then move all of this huge amount of CapEx into another state and the cost and expense and most importantly, the time to make that conversion over to a different state.
我认为,他们正在游说总统这么做。
I think what they're doing is they're lobbying him to do this.
我想知道你对这些有什么看法。
I'm curious what you think about some of this.
我知道这是个关于美国和美国政治的话题,但我不确定。
I know this is a US topic, except US politics, but I don't know.
我能理解科技公司为什么这么做。
I can understand why the tech companies are doing this.
他们只是想尽量降低对自身的风险。
They just were trying to minimize risk to them.
我怀疑正是他们在推动这件事,但如果你有什么评论的话。
I suspect they're the ones that are pushing on this, but if you have any comments.\
这项监管措施让我非常纠结,我觉得他们正在陷入比特币的迷宫。
This regulation is something that I'm so torn on and I think they're going down the Bitcoin rabbit hole.
我认为很多比特币支持者都处于这种立场:算了,干脆去监管化吧。
I think a lot of Bitcoiners find themselves in this position where they're like, you know what, let's deregulate.
我们相信自由市场最清楚什么是最好的,如果你希望迈向一个有增长的社会,就不该阻碍信息进入自由市场。
We believe that the free market knows what is best and ultimately if you want to move towards a society with growth, you don't want to impede that information making it to the free market.
而我真正纠结的地方在于,我不认为这件事非黑即白。
And I think the thing that I really struggle with is I don't necessarily think that it is black and white.
不是完全无监管,就是全面监管,而是介于两者之间。
It's either no regulation or regulation, it's somewhere in between.
对我来说,一个完美的例子是:有些公司可以利用环境破坏来获利,却不必承担相应的成本。
Like a perfect kind of example to me is something around the lines of you can have a corporation that can be capitalizing off the destruction of the environment and they don't have to front that cost.
那么,监管机构是否应该介入,要求那些从自然环境中获利的企业承担相应的经济负担?毕竟他们通过破坏森林、开采矿物和提取其他自然资源来盈利。
And so then does a regulator have to put something in place where there is going to be a financial burden for then capitalising off the natural environment because they're making profit from destroying forest, extracting minerals, extracting XYZ from our natural environment.
因此,我认为这些公司的根本目标显然是利润,如果没有监管,他们就会继续肆无忌惮地从我们的自然环境中攫取资源。
And so I think that a lot of these corporations, their bottom line is obviously profit and there's no regulation, they're going to complete and they're going to continue to extract from our natural environment.
所以我认为,对于许多这些AI实体来说,情况也是如此。
So I think the same thing is true for a lot of these AI entities.
如果它们的目标是打造最快学习、最强大的AI引擎,即使存在毁灭人类的风险,我们也会继续这样做。
If their goal is how do we build the fastest learning, most powerful AI engine, even if there is a risk of destroying the human race, we're just going to keep doing it.
所以问题是,是否需要建立监管机制,因为自由市场没有能力对这样的事情进行抵制?
So it's just like, does there need to be regulation in place because the free market doesn't have the capacity to push back on something like that?
我不确定,我没有完全成型的观点,因为我能从两个方面来看待这个问题。
I'm not sure, I don't have a fully formed opinion on it because I can see it from both sides.
我不知道你的想法是什么。
I don't know what your thoughts are
那里。
there.
是的,从州权的角度来看,普雷斯顿,其中一个优势是它在各州之间创造了竞争。我们先不谈AI,就拿石油来说。
Yeah, from a state's rights standpoint, Preston one of the advantages is it creates competition between the states in that if And let's not use AI, let's just use oil.
假设你是一家炼油厂。
Let's say you're an oil refinery.
假设某个州的公民非常反感,因为这对环境造成了影响,或者从审美角度来说也不行,总之无所谓。
Let's say that citizens of one state just really don't like it because of what it does to the environment, what it does just from a aesthetic standpoint, whatever, doesn't matter.
明白吗?
Okay?
而另一个州却说:哦,我们不在乎。
And then another state is like, Oh no, we don't care.
我们希望所有这些产业都到我们这里来。
We want all that business to come in here.
我们希望所有的商业活动都来。
We want all that commerce.
所以我们将会对这个行业实行支持监管。
So we're going to be pro regulation around that particular industry.
所以,让我们来举个非常假设性的例子,只是为了说明一下利弊。
So let's and this is very hypothetical, just kind of illustrate the pros and cons.
那个允许这种情况发生并广泛蔓延的公司或州。
The company or the state that allows this to come in and just proliferate everywhere.
我们就说这有点过头了。
Let's just say that it's over the top.
而且这是世界上最丑陋、或者在美国最丑陋的居住地之一,而另一个限制更严格的州则要美丽得多。
And it's just one of the ugliest states in the world or in The United States to live, where the other one that was more restrictive is a much more beautiful state.
如果你是那种不想看到这些东西的人,那你就会搬走,用脚投票,搬到更符合你需求的另一个州。
If you're the type of person that doesn't want to be looking at that kind of stuff, well, then you'd move, you'd vote with your feet and move to the other state in the one that's more desirable for you.
我们假设那个支持石油的州有很多税收优惠。
Let's say there's a bunch of tax advantages in the one that that is pro oil.
对吧?
Right?
你不想多花钱,所以你会搬到那个州。
You don't wanna be paying more money than you have to, so you move into that state.
在这种情况下,你实际上是在创造一种竞争,促使人们迁移到最符合他们生活生态系统需求的州。
So in that scenario, you're creating competition for people to migrate to the state that aligns with what it is they want out of their ecosystem that they're living in the most.
当谈到人工智能时,这里有一点不同,那就是正在开发的产品。
When it comes to AI, where this is a little bit different is the product that's being built here.
我不知道这对一个州相比另一个州是利大于弊还是弊大于利,这正是为什么说这不同——因为你实际上是在构建智能。
I don't know that it has a benefit or a negative for that state over another one would be kind of the argument of why, hey, this is different because you're literally building intelligence.
我认为可以从数据中心的角度,即数据的规模、数据中心的占地面积及其能耗来论证,这些因素在各州之间会引发担忧。
I think you could make the argument from a data center standpoint in the footprint that the data and that that would be the argument, is the data center and the footprint and the size of that footprint and the energy consumption of that footprint would be concerning from state to state.
有些人可能出于各种原因不希望自己的州有这么多数据中心。
Some people might not want all of those data centers in their state for whatever reason.
但也有些人会欢迎,因为为了服务这些数据中心,将建设大量的能源基础设施。
Some might love it because of the energy infrastructure that's going to be built out to service it all.
所以这是一个很难的问题。
So those are it's a hard one.
确实是个难题。
It's hard one.
这个观点很有趣,因为我认为物理基础设施不应该由联邦层面来监管。
That's interesting point because I think the physical infrastructure, I don't believe that should be regulated on a federal level.
就像如果一个州想创造更多就业机会,想吸引更多数据中心,那当然应该是他们的自由选择。
It's just like if a state wants to open up jobs, they want to have more data centers, for sure by all means that's their choice.
然而,当一项技术的益处或负面影响不仅波及该州,还可能影响整个人类或国家时,突然间,一个州所做的决定可能影响的范围远超其本地范围。
However, when the benefit or the negative effects of a technology not only impact that state but they potentially impact humanity or the nation, all of a sudden it's just like a state could be making a decision that impacts far more than its locality.
这正是我觉得非常、非常有趣的地方。
That's the thing that I find really, really interesting.
那么,我们在什么时候需要某些监管,因为人们所做的决定在更大范围内造成了更严重的损害?
So at what point do we need certain regulation because people are making decisions that are far more detrimental on a bigger scale.
然后问题来了:谁在制定监管?我认为这触及了监管的核心——即使我们能实现完美的监管,也必须问清楚:究竟是谁在制定监管?谁来监管监管者,以确保监管的公正性?资金又从何而来以支持这些监管?
And then the question is, who is and this is I think what gets to the heart of regulation it's just like cool, okay this is great if we can have perfect regulation but you've got to ask who is actually creating the regulation and who is regulating the regulators to ensure the regulators are being fair and where's the money coming from to help fund this regulation?
很多时候,比如你看制药行业,负责监管制药的机构的资金其实来自大型制药公司。
Many times like if you look at, I don't know, the pharmaceutical industry, the pharmaceutical regulating agencies are funded by big pharma.
所以这就出现了利益冲突,因此情况变得极其复杂。
So it's just like there's these conflicts of interest, so that's where it gets so convoluted.
而且我们稍后在节目中还会讨论特里斯坦·哈里斯的对话,如果你对监管政策这个方向感兴趣,或者喜欢这个话题,我强烈建议你听完整个访谈,因为其中对是否应该监管这个问题的探讨非常深入。
And again, we're going to talk about this Tristan Harris discussion later in the show, and if you want to go down the regulatory policy path and if you like this particular topic, then I would highly encourage you to listen to that entire interview because it gets very heavy in this in this domain as to whether you should or shouldn't.
被采访者斯蒂芬·巴雷特的观点带有很强的偏见。
It's a very biased point of view by the person being interviewed, which is, Stephen Barlett.
对不起。
I'm sorry.
史蒂文·巴莱特正在采访特里斯坦·哈里斯。
Steven Barlette's doing the interview of Tristan Harris.
特里斯坦显然对此有非常强烈的观点。
Tristan obviously has a a very strong opinion in that.
但我认为,让人们听听这种相反的观点或论点,无论他们是否认同,都是有好处的。
But I think that it's good just for a person to kind of hear that counterargument or that argument and whether it you know, something that they agree with or not.
那么,我们来看一下我关于AI话题的最后一个内容。
So let's go to the last one that I have on just the AI topics here.
我要把这个放到屏幕上。
I'm gonna put this up on the screen.
这很有趣,因为我们正在讨论谷歌的泰坦。
And this is interesting because we're talking about Google's Titans.
这个人在这里发了这条帖子。
This person had this post here.
那么,这到底是什么?
And so, like, what is this?
Titans 是谷歌推出的一种新架构,它能让语言模型在运行时拥有类似长期记忆的能力。
Titans is a Google's new architecture type that gives a language model something like a real long term memory while the model is running.
他们在这里展示了一张图表,显示该模型能处理一千万个标记,并仍保持约70%的准确率,这简直不可思议。
And so they have a chart up here and they're showing how it's ingesting 10,000,000 tokens and it's still maintaining around 70% accuracy, which I guess is insane.
它还与其他一些模型在处理一千万个标记时的表现进行了对比,但这些模型的表现远不及谷歌在Titans上取得的成果。
It has some of the other models and what they do with 10,000,000 tokens and it's nowhere close to what Google has uncovered here with titans.
我觉得这个点很有趣,因为我经常想把很长的文档输入到一个超长上下文窗口中,希望它仍能正常执行,但结果总是变得很卡顿。
This one I found interesting because I find myself wanting to just put really large documents into a really long context window asking it to still perform, and it gets laggy.
显然,在长期记忆方面,目前还存在某种缺失。
And clearly, there's something missing when it comes to long term memory.
这篇论文发表于2025年。
So this paper came out in 2025.
它并不是上周发布的,但确实是在今年发布的。
It didn't come out this past week, but it did come out this year.
这篇论文的标题或副标题是‘在测试时学习记忆’。
And the title or the subtitle of the paper is learning to memorize at test time.
你在使用这个系统时输入的某些token大小,我曾试着去理解它是如何工作的。
And some of the token sizes that you're putting through this thing, I was playing around with it trying to understand how it works.
我这里有一段话,就直接念给大家听,让大家思考一下它是如何实现的。
I got this paragraph that I'm just going to read for folks to kind of think through how it's doing this.
想象一下,你正在浏览社交媒体动态,大多数帖子通常是表情包或朋友的午餐照片。
Imagine you're scrolling through your social media feed and most posts are usually stuff like memes or friends' lunch pics.
你的大脑,就像AI一样,预期这些无关内容,并大多会忽略或遗忘它们以节省空间。
Your brain, like the AI, expects that junk and mostly ignores or forgets it to to save space.
但突然间,出现了一条关于你最爱乐队的惊喜演唱会门票抽奖信息。
But suddenly, there's a post about a surprise concert ticket giveaway for your favorite band.
这个惊喜吸引了你的注意力,因此你会记住细节,比如报名截止时间和规则,同时让那些无聊的帖子逐渐淡出。
That surprise grabs your attention, so you remember the details like the entry deadline and rules while letting the boring post fade away.
在Titans中,AI利用基于梯度的计算所产生的‘惊喜信号’,从海量数据流中识别出意外或重要的信息,并决定将这些有用的信息存入长期记忆。
In titans, the AI uses a similar surprise signal from calculations based on gradients to spot unexpected or important info in the huge stream of data deciding to store that useful bit in its long term memory.
这样,它就能保留对后续任务(如回答问题)有价值的信息,而不会被无关的重复内容占据空间。
This way, it keeps what's valuable for later tasks like answering questions without cluttering up the irrelevant repeats.
所以我对这个问题的直接跟进是:好吧。
So my immediate follow on question for that was, okay.
那么,AI 是如何知道那个演唱会门票或那个特定乐队在信息流中是令人意外的呢?
So then how does the AI know that that concert ticket or that particular band is a surprise in the feed?
我得到的回答是,它只是在查看它所训练的海量数据,也就是整个互联网。
And what I got back was it's just looking at the sheer amount of training data that it was trained on, which is the whole internet.
当它处理包含数百万个标记的文档时,它会发现与它所训练的整个数据集相比独一无二的内容。
As it's going through said document that has these millions and millions of tokens in size, it is finding something that is unique in reference to the entire dataset that it was trained on.
而这个梯度正是让它能够说:‘哦,这和我预测或预期的不一样,所以我要记住它。’
And that gradient is what's allowing it to say, oh, that was different than what I would have predicted or expected, so then it remembers it.
我觉得特别有趣的是,多年前我采访过撰写克劳德·香农传记的作者。
And what I find so fascinating so, years ago, I interviewed the author that covered Claude Shannon.
当我们讨论信息论时,我清楚地记得他说:‘普雷斯顿,信息就是惊喜。’
And when we were covering information theory, I distinctly remember him saying, Preston is just surprise.
他的算法,他的数学算法,只是在寻找惊喜。
Like, his algorithm, his mathematical algorithm is just looking for surprise.
当它处理这个‘泰坦’内容时,我心想,哇,这简直就是信息论在实现长期记忆方面的应用。
And when it was going through this titans thing, I was just like, wow, this is literally just like information theory in order to do long term memory.
这太令人震撼了,对吧?
It's just mind blowing, right?
太迷人了,老兄。
It's fascinating, dude.
那是什么?
What was it?
信息论里有个词,比如我给你寄一封信,信里会有很多噪音,而你最终要找的是惊喜,是新的信息。这有点像是信息的反面——信息就是噪音,我们寻找的是噪音中的信号。就像你有一块大理石,要剔除所有多余的部分,才能找到里面隐藏的雕像。我一时想不起那个词了,但当你说到这个时,我想起我最喜爱的一场TED演讲之一,我想你也读过那本书,是唐纳德·霍夫曼做的,他讨论的是:我们看到的是现实本身吗?
There's that word in information theory which is if I send a letter to you there's going to be a lot of noise in that letter ultimately you're looking for the surprise the new piece of information and it was kind of like the inverse of information information is noise what we're looking for is the signal in that noise and so it's kind of like if you've got a block of marble you're cutting away all that excess to find the statue inside and I've got blanked on that but what comes to mind as you're talking about this is there's one of my favorite TED talks we've ever listened to, and I think you've read the book, is by a guy called Donald Hoffman and he talks about do we see reality as it is?
对。
Yeah.
他打了个比方,我强烈推荐大家去听一听,只要搜索TED演讲‘唐纳德·霍夫曼’,‘我们看到的是现实吗?’
And he gives the analogy and I highly recommend anyone going out and listening to this, just type in TED talk Donald Hoffman, do we see reality So as it good.
他提到澳大利亚有一种叫末日甲虫的生物,这种甲虫已经存在了大约三亿年。
And he mentions there's this it was like a doom beetle in Australia and this doom beetle has been around for something like three hundred million years.
所以你可能会认为,既然它已经存在了三亿年,那它肯定能看到现实的本来面目。
So you would assume if it's been around three hundred million years, of course it sees reality as it is.
但后来澳大利亚人开始把棕色短颈啤酒瓶扔进沙漠,突然间,这种末日甲虫几乎濒临灭绝,因为它在大脑中形成了一条启发式规则:越大、越棕,就越好。
But then the Australians started throwing these beer bottles, these brown stubby beer bottles into the desert, and all of a sudden this doom beetle nearly went extinct because it had effectively created a hack, a rule of thumb in its brain that is, hey, the bigger, the browner, the better.
它会去试图和这些棕色啤酒瓶交配,差点彻底灭绝。
And it just goes and tries to mate with these brown beer bottles, nearly went completely extinct.
因此,澳大利亚政府不得不介入,禁止使用啤酒瓶,之后这种甲虫才开始逐渐恢复。
So the Australian government had to step in, ban beer bottles, and all of a sudden that beetle started to kind of recover.
但我觉得这个演讲真正有趣的地方,以及他想表达的观点是:我们并不是为了看清现实本身而进化的,而是为了适者生存。
But what I find really interesting about this talk and what he's trying to get at is this idea that we are not optimised to see reality as it is, we're actually optimised for survival of the fittest.
因此,我们接收所有这些信息,剔除所有噪音,试图建立这些经验法则,以最大限度地提高我们的生存几率。
And so what we do is we take in all this information, we discard all the noise and we try and create these rules of thumb to basically maximize our chances of survival.
所以,当一列火车朝我们驶来时,我们并不会去处理所有信息,想:这到底是什么东西?
So if there's a train coming towards us, we're not processing all this information being like, what is this thing?
我想知道它有多快?
I wonder how fast it is going?
它以多快的速度撞上我的身体?
At what velocity does it going to hit my body?
我们忽略了所有这些数据,只是简单地想:火车朝我冲来了,我得赶紧躲开。
And we ignore all that data and we're just like, trains coming towards me, I need to get out of the way.
我们建立了一条经验法则,来识别这是危险的。
We've created a rule of thumb to recognize that this is dangerous.
我之所以说这些,是因为AI,什么会让AI感到惊讶?
Now the reason why I say all of this is because AI, what is surprise to the AI?
当它处理一千万个标记时,它如何知道哪些信息是有价值的?
What information when it's looking at 10,000,000 tokens, how does it know what is valuable?
它究竟在优化什么?
What is it actually optimizing for?
因为我们优化的是适者生存,那它又在优化什么?
Because we're optimizing for survival of the fittest, what is it optimizing for?
因此,我很好奇能更深入地研究这些模型,弄清楚它们究竟在试图提取什么信息——要么是开发者必须手动编码进去,告诉我们哪些类型的信息才是我们真正关注的;要么是模型自己发现的,而这些发现真的相关吗?
And so that's where I think I'm curious to dig deeper into these models and try and understand like what are they trying to pull out because either a developer has to code that in, this is the type of information that we're actually looking for or it's figuring that out itself and is that actually relevant?
我很想听听你对此的看法或想法。
I'm curious to hear your take or your thoughts on that.
我不确定自己是否充分了解这些梯度是如何确定的。
I don't know that I have enough information on how these gradients are determined.
我知道我见过埃隆·马斯克和其他人发的帖子,他们强烈指出,使用整个互联网、你能获取到的每一条数据作为训练集,并不一定能为任务X、Y、Z训练出最好的模型。
I do know that I've seen posts by Elon Musk and others that really speak to the idea that the training dataset, like using the entire internet, every single thing that you can get, isn't necessarily leading to the best model for task X, Y, and Z.
它能训练好吗?
Is it going to train?
它在理解英语或语言方面会表现得非常好吗?
Is it going to do really well for understanding English or the language?
会的。
Yes.
但如果你的目标是理解医学讨论,它会是最优的吗?
Is it going to be most optimal if you're trying to understand a medical discussion?
不。
No.
所以你需要深入思考,好吧,我们有一个完全或近乎完全理解语言的AI。
So then you got to get into, okay, so we have an AI that understands the language perfectly or near perfectly.
现在我们要将它应用到另一个模型上,这个模型更专注于我们输入的训练数据。
And now we're going to apply that to a different model that then is more focused on the training set as to what we're putting in it.
但所有这些都远远超出了我的理解范围,因为我对此所做的研究太少。
But all of that is way outside of my depth of understanding as far as how much research I've done on it.
我看到过很多该领域重量级人物的讨论,他们谈论数据集的筛选,确保你不会把所有东西都塞进去,因为这可能会带来灾难性后果,或者在特定任务中竞争会变得激烈。
Have seen a lot of conversations by heavy hitters in the space talking about curation of the dataset and making sure that you don't just put everything in there because it's somewhat disastrous or how competitive it'll be in particular tasks.
我认为这是一个非常重要的观点,即最终仍需由个人来判断什么是有价值的,什么是没有价值的。
I think that this is really an important point, which is that I think it still falls on the individual to determine what is valuable and what is not.
我认为你可能会看到一项庞大而庞大的研究或论文,它输出大量信息,声称这些是有效的、有效的、有效的。
I think that you can have this huge, huge research study or research paper that you're looking at and it's spitting out a whole bunch of information saying this is valid, this is valid, this is valid.
但对于普通人来说,也许会觉得:酷,这太棒了。
And to the average individual maybe like cool, this is rad.
但对于一位了解该领域的科研人员来说,他仍然能够再次筛选,区分出有用的信息与干扰信息。
But to a scientific researcher who understands the subject he's able to again filter through that again and separate out the signal from the noise.
我认为,正是在这一点上,人类在短期内不会被取代,因为各领域的专家能够辨别什么是有价值的,什么是没有价值的。
I think that's where ultimately humans aren't going to be replaced anytime soon because specialists in their field are able to see what is valuable and what is not.
就像我们比特币爱好者,当看到报纸文章或《纽约时报》的帖子说‘比特币的耗电量超过了阿根廷’时,我们立刻就能明白。
It's just how, as Bitcoiners, we can see when there's a newspaper article or a New York Times post or whatever that says, oh man, Bitcoin is consuming more energy than Argentina.
这明显具有误导性,并不准确。
It's just like, well, that's misleading and that's not necessarily accurate.
因此,我认为你仍然需要成为某一领域的专家,并深入理解该主题,才能判断这些模型输出结果的有效性。
So I think that you still need to be a specialist and deeply understand the topic to understand the validity of the output from a lot of these models.
是的。
Yeah.
塞布,我们进入本节的最后一个话题吧,时间有点超了。
Seb, let's go to our last topic for this show, and we're running a little long.
所以我想我们得安排另一期节目,把其他话题放进去,因为我甚至觉得我们可能都来不及讨论特里斯坦·哈里斯这个话题了。
So I think we're gonna have to schedule another one to put some other topics in there because I don't even think we're gonna get to this Tristan Harris discussion.
但你本来想聊聊远距离触觉反馈。
But you wanted to talk about long distance haptic touch.
那你来主导这个话题吧。
Go ahead and take this topic away.
当然。
Totally.
所以这件事啊,天哪。
So this is something that oh, man.
它让我大吃一惊。
It blew me away.
我甚至都不知道这东西存在。
I didn't even know this existed.
基本上,我偶然看到了马里奥·诺尔费尔特的这篇帖子,我不知道能不能打开帖子给你们看看。
Essentially, I stumbled upon this post by Mario Norfelt, I wonder if I can even open up the post and I'll show you guys.
前几天我刷推特的时候,偶然看到了马里奥的这篇帖子,科学家们实际上已经研发出了这种远距离触觉反馈技术。
So I was kind of scrolling Twitter the other day and I stumbled upon this post by Mario and basically what scientists have kind of created are these long distance haptic touch.
对于那些不熟悉‘触觉’这个词的人,简单来说,就是如何创建柔性贴片,将触觉引入虚拟现实、增强现实等领域。
So for those that aren familiar with this word haptic, s basically it s like how do we create flexible patches that bring touch into virtual reality, augmented reality and such.
这篇帖子中提供了一些信息,但我进一步深入挖掘,找到了这项研究的原始科学论文,它深入探讨了这一主题。
And so it gives a little bit of information in this post but I started to dig a little deeper and I found the original scientific study which kind of dove into this.
你可以在这里找到这项真正的科学研究,它被称为‘用于多功能增强触觉交互的皮肤附着式触觉贴片’。
The actual scientific study you can find here and it was basically called skin attached haptic patch for versatile and augmented tactile interaction.
因此,摘要中提到的第一部分是:可穿戴的触觉界面可以通过在皮肤上添加触觉模拟,与传递给用户的视觉和听觉信息相结合,从而增强沉浸式体验和虚拟增强现实系统。
And so this is basically the abstract says the first little bit, it's like wearable tactile interfaces that can enhance immersive experiences and virtual augmented reality systems by adding tactile simulation to the skin along with visual and auditory information delivered to the user.
对我来说,最让我感到非常非常着迷的是这些小小的触觉贴片。
And so to me what I found really, really fascinating about this is these little haptic touch patches.
如果我没记错的话,它们的尺寸约为1.1毫米,但体积虽小却功能强大,能够产生压力和高频振动。
Essentially they are, if I remember correctly, they're 1.1 millimeters in size and they're extremely powerful for their size and able to create both pressure and high frequency vibrations.
所以,如果你戴上一副装有这些触觉贴片的手套,而另一个人也戴着同样的手套,并触摸了纹理、形状、边缘、字母或三维表面,你就能通过这些触觉传感器感受到他们所感受到的一切。
So if you were to wear a glove with these haptic touches on your fingers, would be able to if someone else was say wearing the same glove and they went and touched textures, shapes, edges, letters, three d surfaces, you could feel what they are feeling through these haptic touch sensors.
那么,这有什么作用呢?
And so what does that do?
我觉得我们可以在很多不同的方面使用这项技术。
I think we could use this in so many different ways.
你可以通过Zoom与某人互动,比如现在我们正在交谈,如果我们想要拥抱或以涉及触觉的方式交流,我就能感受到你的感受,从而获得一种更三维、更细致的互动体验;同时,我们也可以从虚拟现实和增强现实的角度来看,你可以穿戴某些设备,比如手套或全身服,并戴上VR眼镜。
Either you could basically have an interaction with someone, let's say through Zoom, you and I are talking right now and if we went to hug or we went to communicate in a way that we wanted to involve touch, I could feel what you were feeling and have a much more like three-dimensional detailed interaction, but we could also look at it from the perspective of like virtual reality and augmented reality where you'll be able to wear certain things, whether it's gloves or a suit, and you'd be able to wear VR goggles.
你将置身于一个模拟环境中,不仅能通过视觉,还能通过物理触觉与这个模拟世界互动。
You'd be inside a simulation and you could be interacting with the simulation not just from the visual sense but also from the physical touch sense.
对我来说,这简直令人难以置信。
And that to me, I think, is is mind blowing.
所以我很想听听你对这种触觉传感器的看法。
So I'm curious to hear your thoughts on kind of this haptic touch sensor.
是的。
Yeah.
当塞布在说话的时候,对于只听音频的观众,我放了一段名为Fluid Reality的公司的视频。
So while Seb was talking there, for people that are just listening to the audio, I put up a a video of a company that it's called Fluid Reality.
这家公司正在研发这些触觉传感器。
And the company is putting these haptic sensors.
这家公司在使用这项技术时,旨在让人形机器人更好地感知它们所接触的物体,从而判断在与物体互动时,是该用力捏苹果还是轻柔地拿取。
The way that they're using that particular company is doing is they're trying to give the humanoid robots better sensing of how they're feeling different objects and whether they should be squeezing an apple very hard or very lightly as they're interacting with it.
现在你们在屏幕上可以看到,如果正在观看这段视频,会看到一个人正戴着一副手套,训练具有塞布所描述感知能力的人形手部。
Then you can see up on the screen right now, if you're seeing the video of a person that's wearing a glove that's training one of these humanoid hands with the sensing capability that Seb was describing.
当我们仅关注机器人执行某些任务的能力时,比如洗衣或其他工作,你很快就会意识到,机器人在与物体互动时施加的压力至关重要。
And when we just look at the robot's ability to do certain tasks, like let's say it's doing laundry or it's doing whatever, you can very quickly realize that the amount of pressure that it's applying to the objects that it's interacting with become really important.
这不仅关系到功耗管理,也关系到避免捏碎或损坏所持物体。
It becomes important from a power management standpoint, from just not breaking the object that it's holding or damaging it.
我认为,触觉技术是人形机器人发展中至关重要的一部分,也是未来发展的重点方向。
And I think that haptics are a huge part of humanoid robots and where a lot of that's gonna be going.
这绝对是值得我们关注的技术。
And this is something that is definitely worth paying attention to.
我这里还有几个视频,现在就快速放出来给大家看看。
And I have a couple more videos here I'm just gonna quickly put up on the screen for people to see.
这是特斯拉机器人,对于只听音频的观众,我来展示一下它的手部动作和机械结构有多么精准。
And this is the Tesla robot for people that are just on the audio showing you how crazy accurate the hand gestures and the mechanics in the hands are.
我不知道这个特定的人形机器人在触觉压力反馈方面进展到什么程度了。
And I don't know where they're at from a haptic pressure feedback standpoint on this particular humanoid robot.
但从手势来看,它似乎内置了很高的灵敏度。
But by the looks of the hand gestures, it looks like it has a lot of sensitivity built into it.
但我
But I
我认为,据我了解,触觉感知是机器人领域目前正努力克服的最大挑战之一。
think this is one of from my understanding, haptic touch is one of the biggest hurdles I think robotics is trying to overcome right now.
没错。
Yeah.
因为让一个像叉车那样四处移动、拾取集装箱、放下集装箱的机器人工作是一回事,
Because it's one thing to have a robot that is a forklift truck that is just going around doing its own thing, picking up containers, moving those containers, dropping those containers.
但让一个在厨房里操作的机器人能够拿起鸡蛋而不压碎它,或者能够进行更精细的压力敏感操作,比如使用螺丝刀并感知何时开始拧坏螺丝,或者进行手术、缝纫、烹饪等,这完全是另一回事——我认为,这些任务所需的精细运动技能远超我们人类通常所意识到的。
But it's another thing to have a robot that say operates in the kitchen and can pick up an egg without crushing it or to be able to do more pressure sensitive things like use a screwdriver and understand when it's starting to strip the screw or starting to do things like surgery or sewing and cooking and things where ultimately I think there's a lot more fine motor skills than we really take into account as humans.
我们的双手通过触觉感知提供了大量信息,我们基于这些信息自主做出决策,而将这种能力引入机器人领域,我认为我们还有很长的路要走。
We are being given so much information through our hands, through our sensory touch, and making decisions on that information that we're doing autonomously and being able to bring that into the robotic world, I think we're still a little ways away.
据我了解,这些触觉传感器一套手部设备的价格可能在1万到5万美元之间。
Because from my understanding a lot of these haptic touch sensors can cost anywhere from like 10,000 to $50,000 for a set of hands that are able to do things like this.
因此,我们离让每个家庭都能用上这种技术还很遥远。
So we're a long way off having this available to everybody in their household.
但正如你之前提到的,如果我们能实现十倍的性能提升,成本降低90%,突然之间只需几千美元就能做到,那就会容易得多。
But to your point earlier, if we get a 10x improvement, 90% reduction in price and all of a sudden you can be doing this for a few thousand dollars, I think it's going to be far, far easier.
但话说回来,我觉得无论是从机器人技术的角度,还是从个人体验的角度,这都极其迷人。
But again, I just think it's so fascinating both on the robotic side of things and on the individual side of things.
所以我想提一件事,想听听你的看法,我们是什么时候来着?
And so one thing that I just wanted to kind of bring up and I'm curious to hear your thoughts, we had a when was it?
三月份我们一起去杰克逊霍尔滑雪时,曾聊过一个话题,不知道你还记不记得,关于我们是否活在模拟世界中。
In March we were skiing in Jackson Hole together and we ended up having a conversation, don't know if you remember, on are we in a simulation?
当时我们坐在桌边,讨论了我们是否活在模拟世界中,以及AI和当今一些机器人技术是被创造出来的,还是被重新发现的——即它们其实早已存在?
We were kind of sat at a table and we had this conversation of are we in a simulation and this idea of is AI and say some of the robotics we're using today, is it being created or is it being rediscovered as in it already exists?
因此,当我想到触觉技术时,我会联想到电影《阿凡达》,想到作为人类,我们渴望融入社群。
And so when I think about haptic touch what comes to mind is the movie Avatar and I think about as humans we want to feel a part of community.
我们想要创造价值。
We want to create value.
我们希望感受到自己有目标。
We want to feel like we've got purpose.
那么我们该怎么做呢?
And so what do we do?
我们开始创造产品。
We start to create products.
我们开始创造技术。
We start to create technology.
我们开始建立公司。
We start to kind of create companies.
我们走进这个世界。
And we go out into this world.
作为回应,我们创造了生产力和效率的提升,并开始开发能够取代我们的技术。
In response, we create advancements in productivity and efficiency and such and we start creating technology that starts to replace us.
所以,当我们开始取代自己时,突然间就失去了那种意义感。
So all of a sudden when we start to replace ourselves, we're losing that sense of purpose.
我们失去了那种能感受到自己创造价值的社区归属感。
We're losing that sense of community where we feel like we're creating value.
因此,当社会正在衰退,突然间抑郁、自杀、药物滥用等问题激增时,作为社区,我们该怎么做?
And so at that point, if society is degrading and all of a sudden there's rising rates of depression and suicide and substance abuse and all of these things, what do we do as a community?
如果技术足够先进,你可以创建一个像《阿凡达》那样带有触觉反馈的模拟世界,让我们能够进入一个更简单、更原始的时代,重新开始创造价值,然后一遍又一遍地重复这个过程——我们究竟多少次已经踏入过这种潜在的模拟世界?
Well if technology is advanced enough you could create a simulation with haptic touch like Avatar where we're able to step into a world and move back to a much simpler time and back to that simpler time where we can start to create value again and then we go and do it again and again and it's like how many times have we stepped into a potential simulation.
现在,我并不是说这就是我相信的观点,但我认为这是一个有趣的想法,因为我们正处在一个节点上:在未来三到四十年内,如果我们能创造出令人难以置信的真实模拟世界,以至于无法区分物理世界和这些模拟世界,我一点都不会感到惊讶。
Now I'm not necessarily saying this is what I believe but I think it's an interesting thought because we are at a point where it wouldn't surprise me if in the next thirty-forty years we're able to create simulations that feel unbelievably realistic and we can't differentiate between the physical world and more of these simulations.
当提到模拟理论时,埃隆·马斯克最常提到的观点之一,正是你所描述的,塞布。
It's one of Elon Musk's biggest talking points when this topic of simulation theory comes up is exactly what you described, Seb.
但我们先把这个思想实验留给你。
But we'll leave you with that thought experiment.
我不知道。
I don't know.
对吧?
Right?
我没有明确的观点,但我觉得这是一个非常有趣的思想实验,很有趣去慢慢推敲。
I I don't have an opinion, but I do find it to be a fascinating thought experiment and fun to kind of just tease out.
因为速度——我们怎么知道呢?
Because the pace how would we know?
速度?另外一件我觉得很有趣的事是,这些AI环境都是临时拼凑出来的。
The pace Well, and the other thing that I that I find fascinating are all these AI environments that are just kind of ad hoc making up.
比如他们展示了这些环境的视频。
Like they're showing videos of these things.
我不确定我们之前有没有在播客里放过,但也许早前放过。
I don't know if we've ever put it on the screen of one of the podcasts, but maybe we did earlier.
但它们只是在构建这样一个环境,你看着一段视频,里面有人走在街上,看起来完全真实。
But it's just making up this environment and you're watching this video of somebody walking down a street and it looks completely real.
这完全是AI实时生成的。
It's just being made up on the fly by AI.
然后还有一个记忆组件,如果你转过身,几分钟前你看到一棵树,当你转身朝相反方向走时,那棵树在一段时间内仍然会在那里。
And then there's a bit of a memory component that if you turn around and that you saw a tree just a couple minutes ago, if you turn around and start walking back the other direction, the tree will still be there for a certain amount of time.
是的,这个环境就是被实时生成的。
And yeah, it's just that environment's being made up.
所以我无法想象二十年后,这种技术会发展到什么地步,以及在虚拟现实中,人们在虚拟世界中体验过的事物,其记忆回溯会是什么样子。
So I can't imagine in twenty years where this is and then the memory recall of what's been experienced in this made up world that somebody's going around and sensing in virtual reality.
我想我说这些,是因为你在提出的这个观点——你如何知道你所经历的是真实的世界?
And I guess I say all this because it's teasing out this idea that you bring up, which is like, how do you know what is real and what you're experiencing is reality?
因为当你进入任何这些理论物理学的讨论时,他们会告诉你,你以为自己知道的一切,根本不是那么回事。
Because you go into any of these theoretical physics conversations and they'll tell you that what you think you know is not that at all.
从量子力学的角度来看,情况截然不同。
It's very, very, very different from a quantum mechanics standpoint.
但不管怎样。
But anyway.
当然。
Absolutely.
我们在之前的节目中讨论过,英伟达正在创建一个名为Cosmos的模拟系统,让人们能够在进入现实世界之前,在模拟环境中测试机器人,而这些模拟世界如今已经变得极其逼真。
And we've spoken about it on previous episodes where NVIDIA is creating, I think it's Cosmos, which is their simulation so that people are able to test robotics in a simulated world before they enter the physical world and these simulated worlds are getting so realistic now.
它们具备流体动力学、重力,能够施加各种各样的物理压力等。
They have fluid dynamics, they have gravity, they're able to apply all of these very various physics pressures and such.
所以我认为我们所处的世界真的非常非常迷人。
So I think that the world we're living in is really, really fascinating.
我们正处在一个将物理世界与数字世界融合的阶段,以至于我们还能否将它们区分开来?
We're at a point where we're kind of joining the physical and the digital world to the point where it's just like, we going to be able to separate them?
因为我认为,有一些青少年和孩子在这样的新世界中成长,由于他们不断在数字世界中进行社交、情感互动,有时会分不清什么是真实的,什么不是。
Because I do think that there's these teenagers, there's kids that are growing up in this new world and sometimes they get confused between what is real and what's not because of that constantly interacting socially, digitally, everything emotionally in the digital world.
是的。
Yeah.
好了,各位。
Alright, guys.
我们今天就到这里。
We're gonna wrap here.
希望你们喜欢这次的对话。
I hope you guys enjoyed the conversation.
塞布,我们可能会在两周后再次进行这次讨论,来聊聊那些我们还没来得及涉及的其他话题。
Seb, we'll probably do this again in, like, two weeks to kinda cover the other topics that we didn't even get to.
最重要的是,我们想聊聊特里斯坦·哈里斯在CEO日记——史蒂文·巴特利特播客中的讨论。
Most importantly, we wanna cover this Tristan Harris discussion on the diary of a CEO, Steven Bartlett's podcast.
那里提到了几个不同的话题,我们想在节目中进一步探讨,同时也会继续聊更多科技相关的内容。
A couple different topics that were brought up there we wanna discuss on the show in addition to more tech topics.
如果你们喜欢这个节目,请在评论区告诉我们。
If you guys are loving this, let us know in the comments.
我们玩得很开心。
We're having fun.
希望你们在听我们分享这些多样话题时也感到有趣。
Hopefully, you're having fun hearing some of the the different topics that we're bringing to you.
如果你有任何想听的话题建议,请在X上告诉我们,我们一定会努力在下一期节目中融入这些内容。
And if you have any recommendations of things you wanna hear, bring them to us on X, and we'll be sure to try to incorporate it into the next show that we do.
所以,Seb,给大家推荐一下你的书或者其他你想推广的内容,然后我们就结束吧。
So Seb, give people a hand off to your book or anything else that you wanna highlight that's out there and then we'll go ahead and wrap.
当然,我们非常感谢任何愿意花时间去实践这些步骤和教训的人。
Absolutely and again, we really appreciate anyone who just takes the time to give these steps those lessons.
所以,如果你任何时候想听听我们对这项技术或那项技术的看法,欢迎随时在评论区分享。我们真的很想聊聊当今世界正在发生的事情,分享我们的观点。
So if at any point you're just like, oh man, I'd love to hear your guys' perspective on this technology or that technology, feel free to just share it in the comments And yeah, we really want to go talk about what's happening in the world today and just kind of share our perspective.
你可以在Twitter上找到我,用户名是said bunny,也就是B U N N E Y。我的书是《金钱的头号成本》或《B代表比特币》。
Yeah, you can find me at said bunny and that's B U N N E Y on Twitter and my book, The Heading Cost of Money or B is for Bitcoin.
但再次感谢大家收听。
But again, appreciate everyone giving us a listen.
感谢收听TIP。
Thank you for listening to TIP.
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