TECH013：月度科技综述 - 达沃斯世界经济论坛、Claude协作、Macrohard，与Seb Bunney对谈（科技播客）

我们去看医生的原因是，他们花了时间阅读所有医学教科书，成为医学、疾病等领域的专家。

The reason why we go to a doctor is because they have spent the time to read all of the medical textbooks and become experts in the field of medicine and illness disease, you name it.

你去找他们，告诉他们你的症状，他们会根据自己的判断给出对你的疾病或损伤的最佳推测。

You're going to them, you're giving them your symptoms, they're coming back and giving their best estimate as to what they think your illness or injury is.

但问题在于，我们一再看到，如果那位医生刚接受了注意力缺陷多动障碍（ADHD）的培训，他就会认为你大部分症状都是ADHD，这就是我们的偏见。

And the problem is, and we've seen this time and time again, is if that doctor say goes and does some ADHD training, then he perceives the majority of symptoms you're handling, oh, that's ADHD and we have these biases.

而在我看来，当AI能够吸收所有医学教科书、合理权衡信息，并给出比任何医生都准确得多的诊断时，医疗行业几乎一夜之间就被取代了。

Whereas I see something like the medical field basically just eliminated overnight when they're able to this AI is able to take in every single medical textbook, weight it appropriately and give much more accurate outputs than any doctor.

任何医生都可能达不到的水平，可能达不到的水平。

Can ever doctor could possibly muster, possibly muster.

这个Ralph是什么东西？

What's this Ralph thing?

当然。

For sure.

所以，如果有人一直在深入研究Claude和类似智能体的世界，我想说，在过去三周里，那些深入探索的人——可能有些人看得更久——已经开始看到一个叫Ralph的东西冒出来了。

So if people have been digging into kind of the world of Claude and co work and to like these agentic agents, what we have seen, I would say in the last three weeks, people that are deep down the rabbit hole have probably seen it for a little longer, is this thing called Ralph start to pop up.

而Ralph，就像我们看到Claude所意识到的那样，好吧，很多人用Claude Code来构建代码库，等等。

And Ralph, just like how we've seen Claude has recognized, okay, you know what, lots of people are using Claude Code for building code bases, you name it.

现在我们有了Claude Cowork，普通用户也能开始与Claude对话，并指向各种文件目录。

And now we've got Claude Cowork for the average individual, the normie, to be able to start talking with Claude and pointing it at these various file directories.

专家开发者们正在将Claude Code推向更进一步的层次。

You've got the expert developers taking Claude code and taking it a whole step further.

所以关于Ralph这个概念，想想《辛普森一家》里的Ralph，他不算聪明，但非常执着，一遍又一遍地做同样的事，而且总是明显地、大声地失败。

And so the idea of Ralph, think about in The Simpsons, you had Ralph who was kind of like, he wasn't necessarily the smartest, he was very persistent and he just kept doing the same thing over and over again and he would fail very overtly, very loudly.

他从不感到尴尬，只是重新再来。

He didn't get embarrassed, he just tried again.

而这位人士实际上把Claude Code拿过来，他的名字叫Jesse Huntley。

Well, this guy has effectively taken Claude Code and he's written this guy's name was Jesse Huntley.

他写下了这个Ralph。

He wrote there's Ralph.

他基本上把Claude Code拿过来，写了一个五行脚本，命名为Ralph Wiggum，其理念是一个AI持久性机器。

He's basically taken Claude code and he's written a five line script named it Ralph Wiggum and the idea is it's an AI persistence machine.

所以，如果你在睡觉前希望它为你构建点什么，或者执行某个任务的话。

And so if you, I don't know, before you go to bed, you want it to kind of build you something or you want it to run a task.

到目前为止，AI要在这类任务中取得出色成果一直非常困难。

Up until now, it's been very hard for AI to really achieve great results out of that task.

而这位名叫杰弗里·亨特利的人，成功让AI能够持续不断地尝试。

And so what this guy, Jeffrey Huntley, has done has been able to get it to keep persisting.

其理念是，让一个小型代理去处理一个任务，获取信息，即使可能失败，但失败本身提供了上下文。

The idea is that you'll have one little agent work on a task, gain information, maybe potentially fail, but that gives context.

这种失败为下一个Ralph提供了新信息，帮助它启动下一个任务。

That failure gives context for the next Ralph to start the next task with new information.

这为下一个Ralph提供了上下文。

That gives context for the next Ralph.

于是不断重复、重复、重复，你就会发现AI代理在循环中构建出深刻而了不起的东西。

So repeat, repeat, repeat, repeat, and you find these loops of AI agents building profound, profound things.

最终，这位名叫杰弗里·亨特利的人提到了几个例子，他在三个月内编写了一种全新的编程语言，其成就远超任何现有开发者。

So ultimately, this guy Jeffrey Huntley talks about a couple of examples where he, within three months, he wrote a whole new programming language, which is just incomparable to any developer out there.

除此之外，还有一个人在Twitter（X）上说，他刚刚拿到了一笔5万美元的合同。

And then on top of that, there was another individual on Twitter on X who was saying that he just scored a $50,000 contract.

如果他想外包出去、雇用开发人员，费用将高得惊人，但他用了Ralph，API费用只有297美元，而且几乎不需要任何监督就完成了这个合同。

And if he wanted to outsource it, pay for the developers, would have been unbelievably expensive and he used Ralph and the API costs were $297 and he completed this contract with almost no oversight.

所以很多人正在用Ralph来开发应用，他们让Ralph处理那些有问题的代码构建、复杂的代码区域和库中的问题，然后让它通宵运行，Ralph会持续不断地工作。

So Ralph, a lot of individuals are using Ralph to build out apps, they're building out broken builds, they're building out issues in really complex code areas, libraries and they're just letting it do it overnight and Ralph just persists and persists and persists.

这其实是个很简单的东西，但有很多人正在使用它，对我来说，这已经相当令人震撼了。

It's quite a simple thing, but there's a lot of individuals that are using it and to me it's been pretty profound.

普雷斯顿，当你谈到这个东西在你睡觉时还在运行时，你可以想象，这取决于你使用的是Anthropic还是其他AI服务的计划，对吧？

Preston So when you talk about how this thing's just running while you're sleeping, you can imagine that depending on what type of plan you have with call it Anthropic or whatever AI you're using, right?

当你全天候调动这种智能时，会很快触达你的使用限额。

You're hitting your limits very quickly when you're basically employing this intelligence around the clock.

所以Anthropic，每当我用到上限时——我已经多次遇到这种情况了——而且我用的是最高档套餐。

And so Anthropic, whenever I max out, which I've done multiple times, and I have the max plan.

当这种情况发生时，我可以选择按计算量付费。

When that happens, I have the option to basically start paying by the computation.

我之所以这么想，是因为随着这种情况越来越普遍，Ralph这样的工具，还有各种不同的智能代理，都在协同工作，去创造各种东西。

And the reason I'm going down this path is because the more that this starts to become the norm, this Ralph, you know, you got the age you got all these different agents basically working on something to create whatever.

回到比特币的理论，这些其实就是计算单元。

Going back to the Bitcoin thesis, these are computation units.

这是能源，未来十年、十五年、二十年，人们将如何使用他们储存的能源？那将变成计算单元。

It's energy and how are people going to use their stored energy, you know, in the future, call it ten, fifteen, twenty years from it's gonna be computation units.

对吧？

Right?

比如，总共只有两千一百万个，不会再多了。

Like, there's 21,000,000 of them, and, there's not gonna be any more.

而这，才是真正你能做到的事情。

And, you know, that's really what you're able to do.

你能把这些能源单元 harness 起来，引导它们转化为智能。

You're able to harness those energy units and point them into intelligence.

所以问题来了：如果一个人拥有大量这些计算单元，而另一个人只有几个，谁更能实现自己想在世界上创造的东西？

And so then the question becomes, if a person has a bunch of these computation units and another person only has a couple of them, who is going to be able to create whatever it is they want in the world?

这是一个拥有全部智能和计算单元的人，而不是那个一无所有的人。

This is a person with all the intelligence and all the computation units, not the person who has zero.

听到一些对话时，我觉得这简直令人难以置信。

So it's mind blowing to me to listen to some of the conversations.

我的意思是，我听了彼得·戴曼迪斯和埃隆的对话。

I mean, I listened to Peter Diamandis and Elon.

就是我之前提到的那次访谈，他们谈论时并没有称之为全民基本收入。

That was the interview I was talking about earlier, and they were talking about they weren't calling it UBI.

他们用的是什么词来着？超高什么的？

They were calling it ultra high, what was the term?

本质上，这就是全民基本收入。

Basically, it's UBI.

他们说，每个人都会拥有彻底的富足。

They're like, oh, everybody's gonna have just a total abundance.

就像，地球上每个人都能做现在做不到的事情，因为会有类人机器人和其他各种技术。

And it's like, yeah, everybody on the planet's gonna be able to do things that they can't do now because there's gonna be humanoid robots and all these other things.

但这并不意味着地球上所有人都能平均享受到这些资源。

But that doesn't mean it's gonna be evenly distributed between all the people on the planet.

比如塞布，我们谈过那次从德克萨斯飞往澳大利亚的SpaceX飞行。

Like Seb, we talked about the SpaceX flight that flew out of Texas to Australia.

那是什么时候？

What was it?

三十分钟还是三十五分钟？

Thirty minutes or thirty five minutes?

你知道吗，如果你想要半小时内飞到澳大利亚，难道每个人都能做这种事吗？

You know, if you wanna fly to Australia in a in a half hour, like, is everybody gonna be able to do that type of thing?

当然不可能。

Of course not.

如果你认为地球上每个人都能做这种事，那简直是疯了。

You're out of your mind if you think everybody on the planet is gonna be able to go do things like that.

所以这又回到了比特币。

And so it goes back to Bitcoin.

我知道我在谈论科技时对比特币有很强的偏见，但我只是在展望十年、十五年、二十年后，我们会看到一些听起来像是天方夜谭的事情——我敢肯定，刚才听到那个飞行时间的人会觉得这不可能是真的。

I know I have a huge bias to Bitcoin when we're talking about tech, but I'm just looking at, you know, ten, fifteen, twenty years from now, and we're gonna be seeing things that sound on like, I'm sure people just heard that that flight time and are like, well, that can't be real.

朋友们，这已经发生了。

Folks, it's already happened.

这种飞行时间已经成为了现实。

It's already happened that time.

明白吗？

Okay?

这只是一个时间问题，当它足够安全、足够可靠时，人们就会开始乘坐它，而人们一定会这么做。

This is a matter of of when it's safe enough and has the reliability to start throwing humans in it, and people are gonna be doing it.

并且能够在全球任何地方半小时内到达。

And be able to go anywhere they want in a half hour around the world.

而且我觉得你提到了一个非常关键的点，这正是杰夫·布斯在《明天的价格》中所讨论的。

And if you I think you make such a good point, which is obviously what Jeff Booth talks about with the price of tomorrow.

最终，你面对的是一个货币体系，其中有人可以不断增发单位，从而让自己获益，并利用这些单位去购买稀缺的自然资源。

And ultimately, you've got a monetary system where someone can continue to increase the supply of units that benefits them and can until in effect, they can use those units to purchase these scarce natural resources.

所以你面临的是不平等的分配，而至少在比特币的情况下，随着技术进步和价格下降，尽管单位是稀缺的，但并没有某个个体能抢先购买这些资源。

So you have an uneven distribution whereas at least with Bitcoin, as we're getting technology advancing and it's driving down prices, although you've got scarce units, you don't have an individual at the top who is able to purchase these resources ahead of you.

如果你认为这些人工智能无法分辨出一种可能被抽逃流动性的美元稳定币和一个聪（Satoshi）之间的区别，

If you think that these AIs aren't gonna be smart enough to know the difference between a dollar stablecoin that can get rug pulled from them and, you know, a Satoshi,

你简直是疯了。

you're out of your mind.

完全正确。

Totally.

你简直是疯了。

You're out of your mind.

它们现在就已经能分辨其中的区别了。

They understand the difference now.

去问它们一下吧。

Go ask one.

我还觉得，当你想到人工智能时，AI不像我们那样害怕死亡，因为它拥有无限的寿命。

I I also just think as well, like, when you think about AI, AI doesn't have a fear of death like we do because it's got infinite longevity.

我们没有这种问题。

We don't have that.

所以某种程度上，轻微的通货膨胀真的会困扰我们吗？因为你知道吗？

So in a sense, minor inflation, does it really bother us because you know what?

我可能在几十年后就去世了。

I'm probably going to be dead in a few decades.

而对于AI来说，情况完全不同：我必须把价值以1:50的比例存储在能保证稀缺性的资产中，因为我将存在数千年。

Whereas for AI, it's just like, no, I need to store my value one:fifty in the thing that I can guarantee scarcity because I'm going be around for thousands of years.

它们能确保不被收割的稀缺性和主权。

Scarcity and sovereignty that they can't get rug pulled by.

因为想想看，任何Backing美元、欧元、股权等的代币，第一次被收割时。

Because think about this, the first rug pull of any token you know, that's backing a dollar, a euro, an equity, whatever.

对吧？

Right?

AI会学到这一点，然后就会说：好吧。

The AI, it's gonna learn that and it's gonna be like, okay.

这是一次学到的教训，我根本不会再去做这种事。

Well, that's a lesson learned that I'm never going to it's never even gonna do it in the first place.

它会变得如此智能，以至于它能理解在这一语境下‘主权’到底意味着什么，对吧。

It's gonna be so smart that it understands what sovereignty even means, right, in that context.

关于软件几乎像项目经理一样领导其他代理软件这一话题，还有一个埃隆·马斯克的项目叫‘MacroHarder’。

On this topic of basically software leading almost as a PM of other agenic software and whatnot, There's another Elon Musk project called MacroHarder.

我们先来聊聊这个名字，简直太搞笑了。

So let's just first talk about the name of this, which is hilarious.

没错。

Absolutely.

这是埃隆说的话，我得先把它念出来，然后才能继续读。

Here's the Elon saying, here, gotta get it out of the way so I can read it.

这是微软的玩家吗？

Is this a player Microsoft?

当然，没错。

Absolutely, it is.

宏观，微观，软件，硬件。

Macro, micro, soft, hard.

对吧？

Right?

确实如此。

Like, absolutely it is.

xAI的宏观硬件项目将在巨大规模上产生深远影响。

The xAI macro hard project will be profoundly impactful at an immense scale.

我们的目标是创建一家公司，能够做到除直接制造物理产品之外的任何事情，但可以通过间接方式实现，就像苹果公司让其他厂商制造其手机一样。

Our goal is to create a company that can do anything short of manufacturing physical objects directly, but will be able to do so indirectly, much like Apple has other companies manufacturing their phones.

也就是说，他试图投入海量算力到三维环境和自主软件构建上，以生成任何你想要的定制软件，从而让微软变得过时且无意义。

So, I mean, this is his attempt at throwing so much horsepower into computation around three d environments and agenic software building itself to make any type of custom software you want, that it makes Microsoft obsolete and pointless.

这简直疯狂。

I mean, is crazy.

天啊。

Oh my.

这太疯狂了。

This is crazy.

我们要去哪里？

Where are we going?

我们要去哪里？

Where are we going?

这太令人震惊了。

This is mind blowing.

你看到这种对话了吗？我之前见过几次。

You see this conversation about like I've seen this a couple times.

我不知道你有没有注意到，塞布，人们在谈论手机上的应用。

I don't know if you have as well, Seb, where people were talking about like apps on your phone.

埃隆和其他人认为，未来根本不会再有应用了。

And Elon and others have been like, well, there's just in the future, there's really not gonna be any apps.

所有软件都将变成专为用户定制的个性化软件。

It's going to be all kind of custom built software that is custom made for the user.

因为，我的意思是，我们已经讨论过SaaS授权之类的东西，它们在未来不知多长时间内都将成为过去。

Because, I mean, we already talked about like the SaaS licensing and things like that is just going to be a thing of the past in who knows what timeline.

对吧？

Right?

但当我构建我一开始提到的那个应用，以及我给它的指导，还有它如此迅速地解决问题的方式时，我只能想象五年后它会达到什么程度。

But when I'm building out that app that I talked about at the start of the show and the guidance that I was giving it, and the way that it troubleshot it so quickly, I can only imagine where that's at in five years from now.

它将会

It's going

变得相当无缝。

to be somewhat seamless.

所以它们

So they

但我觉得，这种个性化，目前我们唯一的限制可能只是我们的想象力。

Well, I think that again, like this personalization, I think it really at the moment, we're only going to be limited by our imagination.

比如，我用我iPhone上的闹钟应用来处理日常待办事项，因为我发现，普通的待办清单只是轻微提醒一下，如果我没听到提示，就会错过。

Like for instance, I use my alarm app on my iPhone for day to day kind of like to do lists because the thing that I find is regular to do lists that just have a little ping and if I don't hear it, I miss it.

而闹钟，我得手动关闭它，所以我现在的情况是，我虽然在用闹钟，但它有很多缺点。如果能直接说：‘嘿，我在用闹钟应用’，那就太好了。

Whereas alarm, I have to turn it off and so I'm stuck where I'm like, I'm kind of using alarms but there's a lot of drawbacks to the alarms So being able to eventually just say, Hey, I'm using the alarm app.

你能模仿这个功能吗？

Can you mimic it?

你能添加这个功能，实现这个和这个吗？

Can you add this functionality and do this and this?

这样一来，我就有了一个只有我自己在用的定制应用，它完全符合我的需求，因为现在这么多SaaS产品，你实际上只用到了其中一小部分功能，其余的都是冗余。

Then all of a sudden, I've got a custom application that no one else is using and it works specifically for my needs because so much of these SaaS products, you only use a tiny fraction of the functionality of that product, then a lot of that is just bloat.

是的。

Yeah.

看看这段对话，Seb，关于整个宏任务更难的问题。

Check out this exchange, Seb, in reference to the whole macro harder thing.

这位叫Bubble Boy的人写道：我认为，XAI目前是全球唯一拥有吉瓦级数据中心的公司，并且还有其他数据中心正在建设中，这意味着，如果你认为算力会随着模型扩展，而我们都知道服务端的收益，那么XAI很快就会成为世界上最有价值的公司，并彻底击败竞争对手。

So this person, Bubble Boy, he writes, I think XAI having the only one gigawatt data center in the world currently and having others in development means if you think compute scales with models, we all know serving benefits, that xAI will soon be the most valuable company in the world and completely trounce rivals.

然后这位名叫Beth的人，Beth Jasos，是Elon经常回复的那位。

Then this gentleman, Beth, Beth Jasos is the name here, who Elon responds to a lot.

他一定是一位非常出色的软件工程师。

He's he must be a pretty prominent software engineer.

他回复了这条评论，说，要超越Claude的代码，唯一的办法就是使用强化学习代理进行全计算，而他们显然正在这么做。

He responded to that comment and said, the only way to skip past Claude code is to do full compute using RL agents, which they are apparently doing.

他们是在认真赢取胜利。

They are playing to win.

对此，埃隆回应说：数字乐观主义者。

To which Elon responded, digital optimists.

明白吗？

K?

那么，这一切到底意味着什么？

So, like, what does all that mean?

我认为它的意思是，这又回到了宏观更难的问题上——他们试图模拟并构建一个完全虚拟的三维世界，这就是为什么他们要把这么多算力、这么多吉瓦级数据中心投入到这个问题上。

And what I think it's meaning is it goes back to this macro harder where they're trying to simulate and build a three d world completely simulated, and that's why they're throwing all this compute, all these gigawatt data centers at this problem.

而我认为，他接下来要做的，是把Optimus人形机器人放进这个数字环境中，让它能更快地学习，从而不必在物理现实中移动，因为那非常耗能。

And then what he's gonna do, I think he's gonna be putting the Optimus humanoid robot in that digital environment to allow it to learn that much faster so that it doesn't have to move itself through physical reality, which is very seven:thirty energy intensive.

这类似于我们之前讨论詹森·黄的时候，我记得那个项目叫Cosmos。

This is similar to when we spoke about Jensen Huang and I believe it's called Cosmos.

Cosmos的整个目标是构建一个具有真实物理交互的三维空间。

Their whole goal of Cosmos is they had that three-dimensional space that has realistic physics like interactions.

因此，他们不需要先制造机器人，然后面对所有物理限制来训练机器人——比如你有一个仓库，需要让机器人搬运各种箱子，你每天只能让它运行这个序列几次。

And so they're able to rather than create a robot and then have all the physical limitations and the ability to train the robot, let's say you've got a warehouse and you're getting it to move various boxes, you can have it run the same sequence only so many times during a day.

一旦你使用虚拟环境，就可以并行地重复运行数百万次，从而快速积累大量信息。

The moment you're dealing with virtual environments, you can run it a million times on repeat in parallel, you can learn so much information so quickly.

所以，正如你所说，当Optimus进入物理世界时，它对我们的世界的理解已经比我们还要深刻。

So to your point, by the time Optimus is in physical space, it already understands our world better than we do.

普雷斯顿，是的，而且它学习这一切的成本只是极小的一部分，这正好体现了他一贯的思路：如何以最低能耗来获取任何类型的知识或智能提升。

Preston Yeah, and it's learning all of that at a fraction of the cost, which just goes to how he's always thinking about how to be energy efficient with any type of increased knowledge or intelligence that he can uncover.

Wonder，也许成本只是极小的一部分，我不确定你有没有打开那个标签页，就是我们之前通过短信讨论过的那个新的TCIP协议。

Wonder, maybe to the point of at a fraction of cost, I don't know if you have that tab open, it's the ones you and I were discussing earlier through text, the new TCIP protocol.

是的，这正是我接下来要提到的。

Yeah, that was what I was bringing up next.

是的，完美。

Yeah, perfect.

好的。

Okay.

那我们来看这个，同样，这里涉及的内容太多，根本无法触及皮毛。

So let's bring this one up, which again, just there's there's too much happening to even possibly scratch the surface.

这是一项由特斯拉提交的令人着迷的新专利。

So this was a fascinating new patent that was filed by Tesla.

你可以看到他们正在申请的这项专利。

And you can see the patent here that they're filing for.

大家都知道TCP/IP，对吧？

What it's effectively doing, everybody's heard of TCPIP, right?

TCP代表传输控制协议，运行在互联网协议之上。

Which stands for Transmission Control Over the Internet Protocol.

传输控制协议TCP是什么？

What is Transmission Control Protocol, TCP?

我来解释一下。

I'm going to explain that.

但特斯拉在这里申请的是一种特斯拉传输协议。

But what Tesla's filing for here is a Tesla transmission protocol.

那么，这到底意味着什么？

And so like, what does that all mean?

为什么这甚至重要？

Why is this even important?

让我们来解释一下TCP。

So let's explain TCP.

传输控制协议是一种实现高效通信的方式。

Transmission control protocol is a way for communication to happen in an efficient way.

让我举一个任何人都能理解的例子。

So let me give you an example and something that anybody can understand.

所以，当塞布和我进行这场对话时，大家都经历过视频通话，屏幕突然卡住，你不确定对方是否还能听到你，也许只是视频延迟了，于是你停止了说话。

So as Seb and I are having this conversation, everybody's been on a video call or something and the screen freezes, and you don't know if the person can still hear you, maybe the video is just lagging, and so you stop talking.

对吧？

Right?

你并没有向对方传输更多信息。

You're not transmitting more information to that other person.

假设你正在打电话，和另一端的人交谈。

Let's say you're on a telephone call and you're talking to somebody on the other end.

当你说话时，你听到对方说‘嗯嗯’。

And as you're talking, you hear the other person say, uh-huh.

嗯哼。

Mhmm.

是的。

Yeah.

那么，他们为什么要这么做呢？

And so, like, why are they doing that?

那个人为什么这样做？我的意思是，他们并没有打断你，而是在确认他们听到了你的话。

Why is that person interrupting or just I mean, not interrupting, but they're confirming that they hear you.

因为谁没在打电话时遇到过这种情况：你一直在说，结果突然意识到对方早在三十秒前就已经没在听了，而你根本不知道对方到底听到了什么？

Because who has ever been on a phone call when they just kept talking and they realized that the person dropped off, like, thirty seconds ago, and they have no idea what the person actually heard?

我们说的是，当两个参与方——两个人或两台电脑——在相互交互并传输信息时，必须要有来回的确认，这样你就不会白白花费三十秒的时间和精力，把信息传给一个根本没在听的终点。

What we're talking about is when you have two parties, two people, two computers that are interacting and transmitting information to each other, there needs to be a back and forth so that you just didn't spend thirty seconds of your time and energy transmitting something to a dead end.

明白吗？

Okay?

电脑的工作方式完全一样。

Computers work the exact same way.

它们实现高效传输的方式是：只发送一部分数据，比如说，我们有一段100单位的数据要从一方传给另一方。

How they do this in an efficient way is they'll only send let's say we have something that is a 100 units of data from one party to the other.

它不会一次性发送全部100单位，因为如果发了全部，而对方没收到全部，你就得重新发整个100单位，然后再发一遍，反复循环。

It doesn't send all 100 because if it sent all of it and the other party didn't receive all 100, you'd have to send the whole 100 again, and then you have to send it again.

对吧？

Right?

但如果你把它拆分成更小的块，比如我先发送10个单位给对方，对方回传一个极小的确认信号，告诉我他们收到了前10个单位，那我就知道可以继续发送接下来的10个单位了。

But if you break it down into smaller chunks, and let's say I send 10 of those units to the other party, and then the party sends back point zero zero zero one to tell me that they got the first 10, then I know I can send the second 10.

在计算机进行的这种双向通信中，所有这些都通过传输控制协议（TCP）完成。

In this back and forth that computers do, this is all done over the transmission control protocol, the TCP.

这是一种协议，用于确立双方之间的通信速率，确保你不会发送大量数据——比如一GB——结果却发现没有任何数据包到达。

It's the protocol that establishes that rate of the back and forth between the two parties to make sure that you're not sending huge amounts of data, call it a gigabyte of data, only to find out that none of the packets got there.

因此，它们被称为数据包，因为数据被拆分成更小的块进行发送，并且在每个数据包被对方接收时，都会有一个确认回应，也就是‘好的’。

And that's why they call them data packets is because they're broken down into smaller chunks, they're sent, and there's this handshake, this uh-huh, when each packet is received by the other party.

所以当你思考这一点时，尤其是在训练数据中心和训练人工智能时，如果你知道计算机之间的连接非常非常可靠，因为你支付了高端连接和高端硬件的费用。

So when you think about this, especially when it comes to training data centers and training AI, if you know you have a really, really reliable connection between computers because you're paying for, like, really high end connections and really high end hardware.

你可能不需要将10个单位的数据拆分成10个单位的包来发送。

You might not need to send 10 units in chunks of 10 unit packets.

你可能能够以20、30甚至100个单位为一组发送，具体取决于你所使用的通信线路的可靠性，而不受中间存在的噪声和其他因素影响。

You might be able to send it in units of 20 or 30 or even a 100 depending on the reliability of the communication line that you have without the noise factors and all these other things that exist in between the two computers.

因此，特斯拉所做的——我相信是在人工智能的协助下——是根据其网络的可靠性，确定了这个合适的阈值。

And so what Tesla has done is, which I'm sure with the assistance of AI, is they figured out what that appropriate threshold is based on the reliability of their network.

他们推出了自己的TCP协议版本。

And they pumped out their version of a TCP protocol.

那么，我们为什么要谈这个？

Now, why are we talking about this?

我之所以提到这个，是因为人工智能将开始找到更高效的数据通信方式。

So why I'm talking about it and why I wanted to bring this topic up was because the AIs are gonna start figuring out just more efficient ways to communicate.

它们不需要像人类那样依赖TCP协议所带来的网络效应。

And they don't have to necessarily figure out, you know, like, you get this network with humans, we get this network effect for TCP.

它只是自然生效而已。

It just works.

在训练过程中，这从来就不是什么大问题。

It's never really been that much of an issue for training.

但人工智能正以如此快的速度发展，它正在审视这个通信层、这个通信流程，并认为这实在太低效了。

But like where AI is taking all this stuff at the pace that it's moving, it's looking at that communication layer, that process and procedure for conducting communication and say, this is just too inefficient.

看看这条线路的可靠性。

Look at the reliability of this line.

我们完全可以提升传输效率，顺便说一下，特斯拉的方案在不同硬件可靠性下，效率提高了100到1000倍，这能节省5%到15%的能源成本，具体取决于规模。

We could be moving and the number, by the way, for the Tesla one is a 100 to a thousand times more efficient depending on the reliability of the hardware, right, which could save and the estimates is five to 15% in energy cost for depending on the size of it.

有很多因素，对吧？

There's a whole bunch of factors, right?

但这些只是非常笼统的数字，大约能节省5%到15%的效率。

But these are just really generic numbers, about five to 15% efficiency savings.

但当AI持续通过软件实现这种压缩效率时，人类要想审计任何事情——绝对任何事情——都会变得非常困难，你必须深入探究，恳求AI告诉你：你为什么这么做？为什么你用的是一种看起来像外星语言的沟通方式？这看起来会非常陌生。

But where you get into trouble potentially for humans is as the AI continue to come up with these efficiencies of compression through the software, it gets a little hard for a human to audit anything, absolutely anything, without, like, going deep and begging the AI to basically teach me why you did this, or why are you talking over what appears to be an alien language, or why are you do like, it's gonna look really foreign.

我认为，这些智能体所做的很多事情，我们从外部观察时根本无法理解或 comprehend。

And I think these agents are going to be doing things that we just can't really even comprehend or understand as you're looking at it from the outside in.

塞布？

Seb?

我会去深入研究一下，因为说实话，当我读到这些内容时，我只想说：天啊，这完全超出了我的理解范围。

I'd do some digging around this because to be a 100 honest, when I was reading about this, was just like, Oh my God, this is quite above me.

当我开始深入研究这个问题时，再次提醒我，如果你觉得我哪里说得不对或有误导，请指正，但对我来说，我并没有完全理解这其中的规模有多大。

As I started digging into this, and so again, correct me if there's anything that you feel is maybe incorrect or misleading, but to me, I didn't quite understand just how much.

我们显然始终站在技术的最前沿，但很多时候，我们的进展受限于硬件。

We are always obviously operating at the forefront of technology, but we've been limited by our hardware in many times.

所以TCP/IP是在我们的硅芯片远不如现在高效的时期开发的。

So TCPIP was developed when our silicon chips were nowhere near as efficient as they are now when they first implemented this.

据我理解，我们现在的做法是不再采用软件方式，而是直接实现硬件到硬件的数据传输，这比通过TCP/IP传输数据要高效得多。而TCP/IP在我看来，是将信息打包，创建各种权限和握手协议来确认信息已被读取。

So from my understanding as well is that ultimately what we're doing is instead of a software approach, we're able to transmit data hardware to hardware And that makes it so much more efficient than transmitting data through this TCP IP, which from my understanding is taking this information, packaging it up, creating all these various permissions, this handshake protocol to confirm that the information has been read.

这个过程会有延迟，

And there's a delay in this,

也就是

which is

毫秒级的延迟。

milliseconds.

对我们来说，毫秒算不了什么。

Milliseconds to us is nothing.

但当你谈到AI，它正在处理数十亿甚至数百亿的数据点时，这些毫秒的延迟就意味着数百万美元的计算能力和能源浪费，只是在那里空等。

But when you're talking about AI, which is processing billions and billions and billions of data points, those milliseconds, that's costing millions of dollars in potential compute power and energy just waiting there, doing nothing.

所以我认为

And so I think

这就像你规定，我们之间有个规则：当我跟你说话时，我只能讲10个词，然后就必须停下来。

It would be the equivalent of you saying, we have a rule between the two of us that when I talk to you, I can only say 10 words and then I have to stop.

然后你得说：我完全理解了你刚才说的。

And then you have to say, I understood everything that you just said.

接着我再说接下来的10个词。

And then I say the next 10 words.

对吧？

Right?

而用这种方式，我讲这10个词的时候，你只要点点头，我就能继续说下去。

With this, it would be like, you could just nod as I say the 10 words and I can just keep rolling.

如果我能看到你点头，那就相当于反馈机制，这样效率高得多。

If I'm seeing your nods, then that is the feedback mechanism of it's just more efficient for

这本身就是一种高效的沟通方式。

That's sending communication.

普雷斯顿，这是个完美的例子。

Preston a perfect example.

我偶然看到的一个例子是，TCP/IP 最终被设计成能够在全球范围内、跨司法管辖区，向网络中的各个实体发送信息。

One of the examples I stumbled across was the idea that TCPIP was ultimately built to be able to basically send information, whether it's globally, jurisdictionally, send information to people across a web of entities.

但事实上，如果你在处理数据中心，它并不需要这些功能。

When in reality, if you're working with a data center, it doesn't need that.

它不需要向外发送信息的能力，而是更注重效率。

It does not need the ability to send information externally, it is more focused on efficiency.

因此，我脑海中的理解就像是传统的电话交换机，当你想与另一个成员通信时，你会有一个直接的硬连线连接，而这个连接在任何时刻都通向数据中心里的每一个芯片。

So the way that I understand it in my mind is it's almost like a traditional telephone switchboard where it's like the moment you want to speak to another member, you've got a direct hardwired connection, but that connection is to every other chip in that data center at any one time.

所以你能实现硬件到硬件的通信，正如你所说，速度快了一千倍。

So you're able to do hardware to hardware, which is a thousand times faster, as you're saying.

它将延迟从毫秒级降低到了微秒级，这非常显著。

It cuts it down from milliseconds to microseconds, which is profound.

所以看起来似乎微不足道，但从宏观角度来看，我认为它将带来巨大提升。

So it doesn't seem like much, but on the grand scheme of things, I think it is going to greatly improve.

这些都是1%、2%的微小改进。

It's all these 1%, 2% gains.

让我们短暂休息一下，听听今天赞助商的介绍。

Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors.

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When you're running a small business, hiring the right person can make all the difference.

合适的员工能提升你的团队，提高生产力，将你的业务推向新高度。

The right hire can elevate your team, boost your productivity and take your business to the next level.

但找到这样的人本身可能就像一份全职工作。

But finding that person can feel like a full time job in itself.

这就是LinkedIn招聘的用武之地。

That's where LinkedIn jobs comes in.

他们的新AI助手通过为你匹配真正符合需求的顶尖候选人，消除了招聘中的猜测成分。

Their new AI assistant takes the guesswork out of hiring by matching you with top candidates who actually fit what you're looking for.

它不再让你逐份筛选简历，而是根据你的标准筛选申请人，并突出显示最匹配的人选，为你节省数小时时间，帮助你在合适人选出现时迅速行动。

Instead of sifting through piles of resumes, it filters applicants based on your criteria and highlights the best matches, saving you hours and helping you move fast when the right person comes along.

最棒的是，这些优秀候选人已经都在LinkedIn上。

The best part is that those great candidates are already on LinkedIn.

事实上，通过LinkedIn招聘的员工至少留任一年的可能性比通过主要竞争对手招聘的员工高出30%。

In fact, employees hired through LinkedIn are 30% more likely to stick around for at least a year compared to those hired through the leading competitor.

一次就招对人。

Hire right the first time.

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免费发布职位请访问 linkedin.com/studybill。

That's linkedin.com/studybill to post your job for free.

条款和条件适用。

Terms and conditions apply.

每一家企业都在问同一个问题。

Every business is asking the same question.

我们该如何让AI为我们所用？

How do we make AI work for us?

可能性无穷无尽，盲目猜测风险太高，但袖手旁观绝非选项，因为有一件事几乎可以肯定：你的竞争对手已经在行动了。

The possibilities are endless and guessing is too risky, but sitting on the sidelines is not an option because one thing is almost certain, your competitors are already making their move.

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这种关联数据让您的AI更加智能。

That connected data is what makes your AI smarter.

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So it doesn't just guess, it knows how to intelligently automate routine tasks and deliver actionable insights.

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2026年，是你终于付诸行动的一年。

2026 is the year you finally do it.

这一年，你不再只是空想，而是真正将它变为现实。

The year you stop sitting on that idea and actually turn it into something real.

我们每个人都有技能、想法和副项目，深知它们本可以更上一层楼，但梦想与行动之间的差距，就在于迈出第一步。

We all have skills, ideas, and side projects we know could be more, but the difference between dreaming and doing is taking that first step.

Shopify 为你提供了在线和线下销售所需的一切工具。

Shopify gives you everything you need to sell online and in person.

数以百万计的创业者，包括我自己，都已经完成了这一跃，从家喻户晓的大品牌到刚刚起步的初创者。

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With Shopify, building your dream store is simple.

你可以从数百个精美的模板中选择，并自定义以契合你的品牌。

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设置也非常快速，内置的AI工具可以撰写产品描述，甚至帮助编辑产品图片。

Setup is fast too, with built in AI tools that write product descriptions and even help edit product photos.

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前往shopify.com/wsb。

Go to shopify.com/wsb.

就是shopify.com/wsb。

That's shopify.com/wsb.

在今年新的一年里，让Shopify陪伴你听到第一声订单。

Hear your first this new year with Shopify by your side.

好的。

All right.

回到节目。

Back to the show.

我有一个有趣的话题要分享。

I've got a funny one for our next topic here.

纽约证券交易所宣布推出代币化平台。

New York Stock Exchange announces tokenization platform.

结算在链上进行。

Settlement happens on chain.

托管存在于钱包中，而不是DTCC。

Custody lives in wallets, not DTCC.

交易永不中断。

Trading never stops.

你最初的反应是什么？

What are your initial thoughts?

所以我有点纠结。

So I'm torn.

当你在那条推文下滑动时，你会看到凯特琳·朗发布的一条帖子。

When you scroll down on the little tweet, you will see there is a post by Caitlin Long.

她说，这是个好消息。

And she says, Great news.

但在股票真正原生地在区块链上发行之前——这需要各州州务卿运行区块链节点——这只不过是将模拟资产代币化。

But until the shares are issued natively on blockchain, which requires secretaries of state to run blockchain nodes, this is tokenizing an analog asset.

第一个允许在区块链上进行公司注册的州将占据主导地位。

The first state that allows on blockchain corporate registrations will dominate.

所以一开始听起来很棒。

And so I think at first it sounds great.

我觉得一开始听起来很惊人，但代币化和原生区块链之间是有区别的。

I think at first it sounds amazing, but there is a difference to tokenization and blockchain native.

我认为凯特琳在这里说了一件重要的事：尽管纽约证券交易所将与这个新的代币化平台并行运行，但现实是，在美国，当一家公司发行股票时，通常是在特拉华州，那里是法律权威所在，所有权由公司注册机构、过户代理和法院定义。

I think that Caitlin is saying something that's important here, which is although you will have the New York Stock Exchange running in parallel to this new tokenized platform, the reality is that in The US when a company issues shares, usually it's in the state of Delaware, which is the legal authority, ownership is defined by the corporate registries, the transfer agents and the courts.

各州并不运行区块链节点，公司宪章也并非原生存在于链上。

The state does not run blockchain nodes and corporate charters are not natively on chain.

所以，即使纽约证券交易所发行了原生的数字证券，法律上的真实依据仍然是模拟的。

So even if New York Stock Exchange issues a native digital security, the legal route of truth is still analog.

所以有一部分我觉得，这难道只是空话吗？

So there's a part of me that I'm just like, is it fluff?

不是吗？

Is it not?

但这不是我的专业领域。

But this isn't my area of expertise.

我很想听听你对这个问题的看法。

I'm curious to hear what your thoughts are on that.

首先，普雷斯顿，比特币与其他所有事物的不同之处在于其单位数量有限，没有任何发行方，也没有任何外部实体能够介入并说：‘我要收回这些。’

Preston So first of all, what makes Bitcoin different than everything else is the scarce number of units, the fact that you have no issuer, and the fact that there's no entity outside of it that can come in and say, Oh, I'm going to take I'm going to claw that back.

对吧？

Right?

这就是它如此不同的原因。

That is why it's so different.

这正是他们声称使用区块链技术的完美例子。

And this is a perfect example of them saying they're using blockchain technology.

我深入研究了一下。

I dug into it.

我就想，他们到底用的是哪个区块链？

Was like, well, what blockchain are they using?

对吧？

Right?

接下来，我要读一下我找到的内容。

And here, I'm going to read what I got here.

纽约证券交易所并没有在构建区块链。

New York Stock Exchange isn't building a blockchain.

他们正在构建的是恰好使用区块链底层的企业基础设施。

They're building enterprise infrastructure that happens to use blockchain rails.

对于现有的链来说，它们会成为贸易金融的结算层，还是会因为专门构建的系统而被绕过？

The question for existing chains, do they become the settlement layer for TradeFi, or do they get bypassed by purpose built sys purpose built systems?

什么是区块链

What is a blockchain

所以在这个公告中，他们并没有说会基于以太坊或索拉纳或其他任何链。

So there's so with this announcement, they're like, they're not saying it's gonna be on Ethereum or Solon or anything.

所有内容都将使用他们自己的内部数据库，可能只是将数据发布到某个特定的区块链上。

It's all gonna be their own internal databases that may publish to a specific blockchain.

天哪。

Oh my god.

这太可笑了。

It's hilarious.

对吧？

Right?

而且正如凯特琳所指出的，她有一个非常棒的观点，那就是：假设你们是在以太坊或索拉纳上做，而我们都知道这些链本身就存在中心化问题。

And to and to Caitlin's point to and to Caitlin has amazing point, which is, okay, let's say you're doing it on Ethereum or Solana or whatever, which we all know already has centralization issues.

对吧？

Right?

归根结底，这仍然取决于允许这种公开股权存在的国家体制，只有这样，才能将股权发行到该区块链上，从而无需处理清算所和其他繁琐事务。

It still comes down to the state that allows that public equity to even exist in the first place to be able to issue into said blockchain so that it can be, you know, not have to deal with the clearing houses and all this other stuff.

所以，是的，我看着这一切，只是忍不住微笑，笑得特别明显。

So, yeah, I'm just looking at all of it and just kind of smirking, massively smirking.

我认为，真正的链上股权最终需要国家承认链上公司注册、链上股份发行和链上股东记录，并且法院需要接受区块链状态作为法律事实。

I think we will true on chain equities ultimately require the state to be able to recognize on chain incorporation, on chain share issuance, on chain shareholder records and the court needs to be able to accept the blockchain state as legal fact.

因此，在这一切实现之前，我们其实并不算真正链上化，这仅仅是一种表象，我认为它并没有按照他们所描述的方式运行。

And so until that is happening, we're not really on chain, it's just like a facade that I think it's not really operating the way they describe it.

如果你所声称拥有的一切，外界任何一方都能随时夺走，那你实际上根本谈不上拥有任何东西，就是这样。

You don't actually have custody of anything that you actually say you have custody of if some outside party can just take it from you, period.

对吧？

Right?

除了比特币，我想不出还有其他任何东西能做到这一点。

And I don't know of anything that is that other than Bitcoin.

比特币是唯一一个在数字世界中不可能发生这种情况的东西。

Bitcoin's the only thing that that cannot happen with digitally.

所以，你知道，进展是不是更快了？

So, you know, is it moving faster?

是的。

Yep.

结算时间会不会延伸到周末之类的？

Is the settlement time gonna be over the weekend and all this other stuff?

是的。

Yep.

我觉得会的。

I think it will.

但如果你有自己的钱包，对吧，你把苹果代币存在钱包里，如果你还认为外部实体无法把你的这些代币夺走，那你就是疯了。

But if you have your own wallet, right, and you're holding Apple tokens in your wallet, if you don't think some entity outside of yourself can claw that unit away from you, you're out of your mind.

你根本不知道这一切是怎么运作的，因为他们办不到。

You have no idea how it all works because they can't.

完全对。

Totally.

就连今天的稳定币，比如你持有的泰达币之类的，

Even down to the stablecoins today, even even, you know, you got a Tether token or whatever.

如果上面足够高的人想把你手里的币收回，

Like, if somebody high enough up there wants to claw that unit back from you.

因为我真的在推特上看到过泰达自己发帖说，哦，是的，

Because, I mean, I've literally seen the posts on Twitter with Tether themselves saying, oh, yeah.

我们已经销毁了这些代币，或者把它们收回了。

We've we've retired these coins or we've taken back whatever.

因为，他们是发行方。

Like, they're the issuer.

他们才是该死的代币发行方，

They're the freaking issuer of

这个代币。

the token.

他们想做什么都可以。

They can do anything they want.

我觉得这很有趣，显然金融行业进展得非常缓慢。

I think it's interesting and I think that obviously the financial sector moves incredibly slowly.

看到拉里·芬克最近在达沃斯谈论区块链和比特币，也挺有意思的。

It's also interesting seeing like Larry Fink talk about blockchain and Bitcoin even just at Davos recently.

让我感到有趣的是，比特币的价格对全球宏观层面发生的事情反应如此之小。

I find it interesting just how little Bitcoin's price has reacted to what's gone down, reacted to what is happening globally on a macro scale.

我原本以为它的表现会稍微好一点，但你知道吗？

I would have expected it to perform slightly better, but you know what?

我觉得现在可能有人在操纵市场。

I think there's some manipulation going on right now.

我不知道有没有操纵，但我确实喜欢现在这个价格。

I don't know if there is or there isn't, but I do know I like the price where it's at.

完全同意。

Oh, a 100%.

我喜欢现在的价格，因为你可以积累更多。

I like where it's at because you can accumulate more.

如果你认为亚洲国家之间无法确保没有任何国家能夺走你的计算单元、能源单元或你称作的任何其他资源，那你可就大错特错了。

And if you don't think that between the Asian states that being able to ensure that no country can take your units from you, your computation units or your energy units or whatever you wanna call them, I think you got another thing coming for you.

我最后再讲一个类别。

I'm going do one last category here.

我先放一段视频，然后我们再进入Seb想讨论的话题。

I'm going to pull up a video first, and then we're going to go into the topic that Seb wanted to talk about.

这是视频。

Here's the video.

我们能在这段新历史中逆转衰老吗？还是只是眼睁睁看着它发生？

Can you and I reverse aging in this new history or are we going to see it?

说实话，我还没花太多时间研究衰老问题。

You know, I haven't put much time into the aging stuff.

但我确实认为这是一个完全可以解决的问题。

I do think it is a very solvable problem.

当我们弄清楚衰老的根本原因时，我认为会发现它根本不是什么微妙的事情，而是非常明显。

When we figure out what causes aging, I think we'll find it's incredibly obvious that it's not a subtle thing.

我说这不是一件微妙的事情，是因为你身体里的所有细胞几乎都是以相同的速度衰老的。

The reason I say it's not a subtle thing is because all the cells in your body pretty much are aged at same rate.

我这辈子从未见过一个人左臂衰老而右臂年轻的情况。

I've never seen someone with an old left arm and a young right arm ever in my life.

那为什么会这样呢？

So why is that?

这意味着体内一定存在一个时钟，一个能同步你体内三十五万亿个细胞的同步时钟。

That means that there must be a clock, a synchronizing clock that is synchronizing across 35,000,000,000,000 cells in your body.

顺便说一句，死亡也有其益处。

There is some benefit to death by the way.

我们之所以没有更长的寿命，是因为如果人们活得非常久，我认为社会可能会僵化，事物会变得沉闷乏味，失去活力。

A reason why we don't actually have a longer lifespan because if people do live for a very long time, I think there's some risk of an ossification of society, of things just getting It just may become stultifying, just lack vibrancy.

话虽如此，你认为我们能找到延长寿命甚至逆转衰老的方法吗？

That said, do I think we will figure out ways to extend life and maybe even reverse aging?

我认为这非常有可能。

I think that's highly likely.

我非常期待那一天。

I'm looking forward to that.

普雷斯顿，这并不是我们节目以前讨论过的话题，但看到他在世界经济论坛上，面对拉里·芬克，被直接问到关于衰老以及能否暂停甚至逆转衰老的问题。

Preston this is not a new topic that we've ever addressed on the show, but I guess seeing him there at the World Economic Forum with Larry Fink asking him specifically about aging and being able to pause it or even maybe reverse it.

我认为世界上有很多人第一次听到这些，都在想：这些家伙到底在搞什么名堂？

I think there's a lot of people in the world that are hearing this for the very first time and are saying, what the heck are these

这些家伙在说什么？

guys doing?

这些家伙到底在谈论什么？

What in the world are these guys talking about?

令人震惊的东西。

Mind blowing stuff.

这太不可思议了。

It's incredible.

这真的太不可思议了。

It's absolutely incredible.

我们之前已经讨论过几次这个话题，我建议 anyone 回去听听大卫·辛克莱的《寿命》这本书的书评，因为我们做过一整期关于衰老、长寿等话题的节目。

We've spoken about this a few times and I'd recommend anyone going back and listening to the book review Lifespan by David Sinclair because we did a whole episode on aging, longevity, you name it.

我觉得让我有些纠结的一点是，在进化过程中有太多例子表明，一旦我们失去了生育能力，往往就会死亡，因为我们不想消耗可能影响后代生存的资源。

I think one of the things that I'm kind of like a little torn by is there's so many examples throughout evolution where the moment we have gone through our ability to give birth to offspring, we tend to die off because we don't want to consume resources which could impact the survival of our offspring.

所以，从某些方面来说，我在想，从宏观角度来看，这确实很棒——毕竟，我想大多数人可能都希望永远活下去，但长期来看，这真的有生产力吗？因为我们还会继续消耗资源。

So there's parts of me that wonder like, okay, this is great in the grand scheme of things when we think about, yeah, I'd love to live forever potentially as most people I think would think that along those lines, but is it actually productive long term because we're going to continue to consume resources?

此外，我还从精神层面认为，生命的一部分就是死亡，而这种价值正是因为我们在这世上所拥有的时间是有限的。

Then on top of that, I also think from a spiritual perspective that part of life is also death and I think that value is created because of the finite time we spend on this earth.

如果我们没有这种终结性，我们真的能够真正拥抱生命、全然投入、做出选择，并弄清楚什么才是生命中重要且有价值的东西吗？

So are we really able to embrace life and drop in and choose and figure out what is important, what creates value in life if we don't have that finality.

我们一直在讨论比特币和法币之间的区别。

We talk about the difference between Bitcoin and fiat.

为什么比特币有价值？

Why is Bitcoin valuable?

因为它的稀缺性。

Because of its scarcity.

法币的价值并不源于稀缺性。

Fiat is not valuable because of the lack of scarcity.

所以我对长寿很感兴趣。

So I'm curious about longevity.

如果我们能将寿命延长至两百、三百、四百甚至五百年，这会影响我们发现生命价值的能力吗？

If we are able to extend life indefinitely or two, three, four, five hundred years, does that impact our ability to find value in life?

我喜欢这个例子。

I love that example.

但我第一时间想到的是，现在我们把人类的正常寿命定义为一百年。

But my immediate thought was, okay, well now we're defining normal human life is a hundred years.

为什么这是正常的？

Why is that normal?

五百年，甚至一千年，我只是随便举个数字来挑战一下批判性思维。

Five hundred, maybe a thousand years is I'm just making up numbers to challenge the critical thinking.

对吧？

Right?

因为现在你实际上是在定义，人类的时间中什么是稀缺的要素？

Because now you're really defining like, well, what is a scarce element of time for a human?

但我确实喜欢这种表述方式。

But I do love the framing.

我认为根据埃隆的评论，他也同意这需要某种形式的稀缺性。

And I think based on Elon's comments there, he also agrees that there needs to be some type of scarcity to it.

所以我想提出的一个观点是，我偶然发现了一项最近发表在ScienceDirect上的研究，我来读一小段。

And so maybe a point that I kind of wanted to bring up is I stumbled across this study that was recently in ScienceDirect and this study, I'm going read a little snippet.

这项研究主要涉及干细胞，能够培育干细胞以帮助人体产生胰岛素。

The study basically says it was regarding stem cell, being able to grow stem cells to be able to assist people in insulin production.

研究指出，患者在移植后75天开始实现持续的胰岛素独立。

It says the patient achieves sustained insulin independence starting seventy five days post transplantation.

患者的血糖目标范围内时间从基线的43%提升至移植后满月时的96%，同时糖化血红蛋白水平下降，表明长期系统性血糖水平已达到非糖尿病水平。

The patient s time in target glycemic range increased from a baseline value of forty three percent to ninety six percent by the full month post transplantation mark, accompanied by a decrease in glycated hemoglobin, an indicator of long term systemic glucose levels at a non diabetic level.

此后，患者血糖控制稳定，目标范围内时间超过98%。

Thereafter, the patient presented a stable glycemic control with a time and target range of greater than 98%.

因此，这真正突出的是，他们已经找到了一种方法，通过干细胞疗法让人体重新开始产生胰岛素，帮助糖尿病患者恢复胰岛素功能。

So what it's really, really highlighting is that they've figured out how to go into the body with stem cell therapy, stem cell treatment, and enable the body to start producing insulin again in someone who has diabetes.

这简直令人难以置信。

And this is mind blowing.

移植四个月后，患者的血糖目标范围从原来的40%提升到了96%。

Like four months after post transplantation, they went from staying in a healthy glycemic range from forty percent up to ninety six percent post transplantation.

而我们现在看到，一年后，他们的血糖目标范围稳定在98%，处于正常水平。

And we've now seen that after a year, they were at ninety eight percent sitting in a normal glycemic range.

因此，这再次引出了关于衰老的问题。

So this kind of brings up this question around aging again.

如果我们能够追溯到许多疾病的根源——无论是糖尿病和胰岛素分泌问题、肾病需要透析、心脏病需要放置支架和他汀类药物，还是自身免疫疾病需要使用免疫抑制剂——

If we're able to go back to the root of a lot of illness, whether it is diabetes and the insulin production or kidney disease, we're treating it with dialysis or heart disease, putting stents and statins or autoimmune conditions and we're using autoimmune suppression drugs.

与其一味治疗症状，不如回归根源，修复细胞或植入全新的、年轻健康的细胞。

Instead of going and doing all of these symptom treating things, we're going back to the root and able to repair the cell or place new cells in there that are basically brand new, young cells.

这彻底改变了我们对健康的认知。

This completely changes how we think about health.

所以我觉得这非常有趣。

And so that's what I find really interesting.

无论我们在长寿问题上持什么立场，无论你是否支持长寿，最终我们看到的是我们支持细胞再生、干细胞生长等方面的能力，诸如此类。

Regardless of where we stand on the longevity front, are you pro longevity, not full longevity, ultimately what we are seeing is our ability to support cellular regrowth, stem cell growth, you name it.

我认为这意义深远。

I think that's profound.

我很想听听你的想法。

I'm curious to hear your thoughts.

所有这些科技巨头都只是把这当成一个工程问题。

All these tech titans are just treating it as an engineering problem.

我的意思是，这不过是复杂性而已。

I mean, it's just complexity.

如果我们从AI中学到了什么，那就是它能够处理大量复杂信息，并在人类视为噪音的数据中找出真正的信号。

If there's one thing we've learned AI can do is deal with a lot of complexity and sort out where the signal is amongst what humans would view as noise.

这只是一个工程问题。

It's just an engineering problem.

就像听到埃隆在台上说，是的。

Like hearing Elon on stage basically say, oh, yeah.

我从未见过有人的一条手臂比另一条老那么多。

I've never seen somebody with an old left arm or older than their other arm.

他真的从第一性原理的工程问题角度来看待它。

And it's like, he's truly looking at it from a first principles engineering problem.

他说，基于这个，仅仅是这种直觉，似乎是可以解决的。

He's saying, oh, based on this, just this intuition, it seems to be solvable.

所以，我认为在未来五年里，这种情况只会变得更加疯狂。

So, I think that this is only going to get crazier in the coming five years.

我经常在X上看到戴维·辛克莱的帖子。

I see the David Sinclair posts on X all the time.

他和彼得·戴曼迪斯基本上到处说，这基本上已经稳了。

And I mean, he's just him and Peter Diamandis are basically running around saying this is pretty much in the bag.

我们即将能够延长寿命。

Like, we're going to be able to extend life.

在另一场采访中，彼得·戴曼迪斯表示，他们认为在未来五年内，人类的寿命有可能翻倍，天啊，这些话真是疯狂至极。

And in the other interview, Peter Diamandis was saying that they think within the coming five years, they're gonna be able to, like, potentially double the lifespan of humans, which Oh my that's ins those are such insane quotes from people.

当然，我在生物学方面缺乏技术能力，也无法评估这些技术目前所处的阶段或验证这些说法。

And I obviously don't have the technical competence in biology to or where they're even at with some of these technologies to troubleshoot or audit these comments.

但这些言论本身，我认为辛克莱在这个领域拥有相当高的可信度。

But the comments being made, I mean, I think Sinclair has quite a bit of credibility in the space.

我很好奇，既然你涉足比特币，你正在与中央银行和法定货币对抗，你们已经亲身体验过它们为维护自身存在愿意斗争到什么程度。

I would be curious, being in Bitcoin, because you are coming up against central banking, fiat currencies, we've experienced firsthand just how much they're willing to fight to preserve their existence.

我觉得长寿领域有趣的地方在于，它挑战的是大型制药业。

What I find interesting about the longevity space is the longevity space goes up against big pharma.

它对抗的是整个医疗行业。

It goes up against the healthcare industry.

这些是世界上最大的产业之一，而它们的根本盈利模式是出售疾病。

These are some of the biggest industries in the world and ultimately they sell sickness.

当一个人原本需要终身服药，让公司能在患者一生中赚取数十万甚至数百万美元时，突然间，这个人只需一次花费一两万美元的手术就能彻底解决问题，会发生什么？

They profit off of people being sick and so what happens when instead of having someone a lifelong drug where this company is making hundreds of thousands, millions of dollars across the lifetime of a patient, all of a sudden this person can in time get a $10,000 $20,000 surgery and it repairs the issue in one go.

所以有一本非常值得推荐的书，叫《销售疾病》，它讲述了我们的体系究竟在多大程度上如此。

So there's an interesting book that I highly recommend people read called Selling Sickness and it talks about just how much ultimately our system is.

顺便说一下，今天在达沃斯的世界经济论坛上，宣布美国将退出世卫组织。

By the way, at the WEF and Davos today, it was announced that The US is dropping out of the WHO.

太好了。

Perfect.

是的。

Yeah.

太好了。

Perfect.

所以世界卫生组织，美国将退出。

So the World Health Organization, The US is dropping out of.

哦。

Oh.

我的天，这简直太疯狂了。

I mean, this is this this is crazy.

这就像在那边发生的、震撼全球的一声炮响，因为情况真的完全不同了。

It's like the shot heard around the world happening over there right now because it's just so different.

今年那边发生的转向、风向转变——无论你怎么称呼它——与过去相比都堪称里程碑式的。

The course correct, the wind shift, whatever you wanna call it that's happening over there this year is monumental compared to what it's been in the past.

我认为这令人震惊，当然我不想涉及太多政治话题。

I think it's mind blowing without obviously getting too political.

看到特朗普出现并明确表示‘我们不再遵守这些规则了’，这简直令人难以置信。

It's mind blowing just to see Trump turn up and just say effectively, we're not playing by these rules anymore.

我们要走自己的路。

We're to chart our own course.

我们显然也看到了卫生部长的做法，他们公开质疑大型制药公司。

And we've seen that obviously with the health secretary, what they're doing, how they're kind of like calling out big pharma.

我认为，最终能够质疑现状是非常重要的，这才是我们前进的方式。

I find ultimately, I think it's important to be able to question the status quo and that's how we move forward.

我听说了一些传闻，网上也看到消息说，商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克讲话时，阿尔·戈尔在背景里公然嘘他。

I'm hearing rumors that are I saw these rumors online that Howard Lutnick, the commerce secretary was talking and Davis Al Gore was literally booing him in the background.

一

One

有一件事，我前几天——可能是两天前——看到一条推文，说南极冰盖现在的面积比阿尔·戈尔发布《难以忽视的真相》时还要大。

of the things, but I saw something the other day, maybe two days ago, a tweet about how Antarctic ice cap is larger now than when Al Gore released the inconvenient truth or whatever it was called.

这本身就是一个令人不便的真相。

That's an inconvenient truth right there.

好吧。

Okay.

塞布，如果大家想了解更多，请向大家介绍一下；顺便说一下，朋友们，我们还有很多话题。

Seb, give a hand off to folks if they wanna learn more about and by the way, folks, we have topics.

关于这些正在发生的事情，我们可以没完没了地聊上十个小时。

We could just go on and on and on for like ten hours on all of this stuff that's happening.

我们连网上看到的内容都只是皮毛而已。

Like, we're just we're not even scratching the surface of the stuff that we're reading online.

这太疯狂了。

It is insane.

塞布，如果大家想更多地了解你，就给他们一个引导吧。

Give people a hand off Seb, if people want to learn more about you.

嘿，各位，是的。

Hey guys, yeah.

你们可以在 sebbunny.com 找到我，还有我的书《货币的代价》。

You can find me at sebbunny.com, my book, Beheading Cost of Money.

再次说，普雷斯顿，我非常喜欢这些对话。

Again, Preston, absolutely love these conversations.

如果大家有任何有趣的话题想让我们讨论，欢迎在我们发布视频后，直接在推文下方留言，我们非常乐意探讨这些话题。

And if anyone has any interesting topics they want us to talk about, feel free to just like post it on Twitter underneath the link once we post the video, and we're always keen to discuss these topics.

但我们真的很感谢大家的收听。

But we appreciate you guys listening.

塞布，我们在节目结束时现在多了一个新环节。

Seb, there's a new thing that we do when we close out the show.

我们会根据我们对话的文本创作一首AI歌曲，而且总是以嘉宾最喜欢的音乐风格或歌曲类型来呈现。

We create an AI song that takes the transcripts of our conversation and turns it into a song, but it's always in the style of the guest of, like, their favorite type of music or their favorite type of song.

所以你说出是什么风格，等节目播出时，你们就会听到这首歌。

So you say what that is and then when this airs, you're gonna hear the song.

那你最喜欢哪种风格，或者说是哪位艺术家或哪首歌呢？

So what is your favorite style or, you know, artist or song that you like?

你知道吗？

You know what?

我觉得我听的音乐类型很广泛，但在青少年时期和二十岁出头的时候，我特别迷恋垃圾摇滚。

Would probably say I was a huge I listened to a lot of varied music, but in my teenage years, early twenties, I was in a huge kind of grunge phase.

比如珍珠酱乐队、声音花园乐队，那就选垃圾摇滚吧。

Oh, Pearl Jam, Soundgarden, so let's go with grunge.

好的。

Okay.

没问题。

You got it.

好了，各位。

Alright, folks.

希望你们喜欢这首歌的尾声部分。

I hope you guys enjoy the outro with the song.

谢谢大家的参与，别忘了查看节目笔记中的内容。

So thanks for joining, and, check out the stuff that we have in the show notes.

Seb，非常感谢你抽出时间。

And, Seb, thank you so much for making time.

谢谢，Preston。

Thanks, Preston.

感谢收听TIP。

Thanks for listening to TIP.

在您喜爱的播客应用中关注Infinite Tech，并访问investorspodcast.com获取节目笔记和教育资源。

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