TIP636：亿万富翁投资传奇李录与克莱·芬克

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大家好，欢迎来到《投资者播客》。我是主持人Clay Finck。今天我将分享我从亿万富翁价值投资者李录的投资方法中学到的东西。李录是喜马拉雅资本的创始人兼董事长，这家管理资产达数百亿美元的投资公司主要专注于亚洲和美国市场的长期投资机会。

Clay Hey, everybody. Welcome to the Investors Podcast. I'm your host, Clay Finck. And today I'm going to be sharing what I learned from studying the investment approach of billionaire value investor, Lee Liu. Li Lu is the founder and chairman of Himalaya Capital, which is a multi billion dollar investment firm that primarily focuses on long term investment opportunities in Asia and The US.

喜马拉雅资本由李录于1997年创立。截至2023年9月，该公司管理着约140亿美元的资产。李录以与查理·芒格和莫尼什·帕伯莱的亲密友谊而闻名，他很少公开露面。因此在本期节目中，我将分享通过梳理所有能找到的公开资料后的发现。事实上，当查理·芒格最近去世时，他25亿美元财富中的一部分就投资在李录那里，芒格称他为'中国的沃伦·巴菲特'。

Himalaya Capital was started by Li Lu back in 1997. And as of September 2023, it looks like the firm manages around $14,000,000,000 in assets. Li Lu is well known for being close friends with Charlie Munger and Monish Pabrai, and he rarely does public appearances. So during this episode, I'm going to be sharing what I found after scouring through all publicly available resources I could get my hands on. In fact, when Charlie Munger recently passed away, part of his $2,500,000,000 fortune was invested with Li Lu, who he referred to as the Chinese Warren Buffet.

那么，让我们直接进入正题。

With that, let's get right to it.

庆祝十周年及超过1.5亿次下载量。您正在收听的是《投资者播客网络》。自2014年以来，我们研究金融市场并阅读对白手起家的亿万富翁影响最大的书籍。我们让您保持信息灵通并为意外情况做好准备。现在有请主持人Clay Finck。

Celebrating ten years and more than 150,000,000 downloads. You are listening to The Investors Podcast Network. Since 2014, we studied the financial markets and read the books that influenced self made billionaires the most. We keep you informed and prepared for the unexpected. Now for your host, Clay Finck.

我想以分享喜马拉雅资本网站上的内容开始本期节目。网站顶部引用了查理·芒格关于'无缝信任之网'的名言。我引用原话：'文明能达到的最高形式是无缝的应得信任之网。不需要太多程序，只有完全可靠的人正确地相互信任。'引用结束。

So I wanted to kick this episode off and just share what's on Himalaya Capital's website. At the top, they share a quote from Charlie Munger on the seamless web of deserved trust. I quote, The highest form which civilization can reach is a seamless web of deserved trust. Not much procedure, just totally reliable people correctly trusting one another. End quote.

我不完全确定是什么促使他特别发布这句引言，但这让我想起了李录的早年经历，接下来我会详细讲述。在我研究过的所有投资者中，李录的背景故事是最引人入胜的之一。他在中国出生长大，父母曾被政府送往劳改营。因此他在成长过程中辗转于多家孤儿院和看护人之间。事实上，他10岁时曾在唐山大地震中幸存，官方记录显示那场灾难造成24万人遇难，其中包括李录养父母家的所有成员。

I'm not exactly sure what personally led him to posting this quote specifically, but it reminds me of the early days of Li Lu, which I'll be getting into a little bit here. So Li Lu has one of the most interesting backstories of all the investors I've studied on this show. He was born and raised in China and his parents were sent to labor camps by the government. So he transitioned through multiple orphanages and caretakers growing up. In fact, when he was 10 years old, he survived a catastrophic earthquake in Tangshan, which official records show killed two and forty thousand people, including all the members of Li Lu's adoptive family.

他在大学期间参与了学生组织的抗议活动，这最终导致他被列入政府通缉的21名学生领袖名单。李录在策划为期六天的绝食抗议中发挥了关键作用，此举激起了政府的反应。据报道，这场抗议活动聚集了100万人，政府不得不介入并最终向人群开火。李录因此成为当局想要抓捕的21名起义领导者之一。

When he was at university, he participated in protests organized by students. And this eventually led him to being put on the government's list of 21 most wanted student leaders. So Li Lu played a pivotal role in orchestrating a six day hunger strike, which provoked a response from the government. Reportedly, there were 1,000,000 people together at this protest and the government had to interfere and they ended up opening fire on them. Li Lu was then one of 21 people that they wanted to capture for leading this uprising.

后来他设法通过地下渠道逃离中国，辗转来到美国。初到纽约时身无分文且不会英语，最初依靠钦佩他在共产主义中国立场的国际人权组织的慷慨资助才得以维生。关于这段早期经历，李录专门写了本回忆录《移山——我的中国岁月》。此外FT杂志也有篇深度报道，我会确保将链接附在节目说明中。

He then somehow managed to escape China through these underground channels and make his way to The United States. He was in New York, he had no money, didn't speak English, and he was able to initially get by because of the generosity of human rights groups that admired the stand he had taken while he was in communist China. To learn more about his early days, Li Lu actually wrote a book about it. It's called Moving the My Life in China. There's also a FT Magazine article that I'll be sure to get linked in the show notes that dives into this as well.

通过研究他的经历可以发现，李录有着惊人的智慧和勤奋。他在入读哥伦比亚大学前仅用一个夏天就掌握了英语，并成为哥大首批同时获得三个学位（不仅是三个专业）的学生——经济学学士、MBA以及法学博士。

So Lee Liu, in doing all this research on him, he is just really ungodly smart and hardworking. He learned English in one summer before enrolling in Columbia University. He was one of Columbia's first students to ever get three degrees simultaneously. So not just like three majors, three degrees. So he had an economics degree, an MBA and a law degree.

这些成就是他在与八人合租的公寓客厅里完成的，而且是用非母语学习。查理·芒格曾表示，他喜欢与那些被抛到全新环境仍能白手起家的人合作——这正是李录早年的人生写照。据传他在大学期间的投资就极为成功，毕业时已拥有百万美元资产。

And he did this while staying in an apartment living room that he shared with eight other people. And he was doing these studying a language that wasn't even his first language. Charlie Munger has previously said that he likes to partner with people who can be dropped off into a completely new country or completely new environment without any resources and still end up making a fortune. And that's exactly what Li Lu did early on in his life. Apparently he had done so well in his investing endeavors in college that when he graduated, he had a million dollars.

他的投资本金来自学生贷款，这些贷款通常延期三四个月偿还。在此期间他将贷款资金用作投资浮存金，凭借这种操作获得惊人收益。芒格在2017年每日期刊中说道：'我研读《巴伦周刊》五十年，期间只发现一个几乎零风险却能赚取8000万美元的机会。后来我把这8000万交给李录，他将其增值到4-5亿美元。'

And the way he had this money to invest is that he would get these student loans and he'd pay these loans maybe three, four, five months later. And he'd use those loans as float that he would invest in the meantime. He just did so well investing in this manner. Munger had said in the 2017 daily journal meaning that I quote, I've read Barron's for fifty years and in fifty years I found one investment opportunity, out of which I made about $80,000,000 for almost no risk. I then took the 80,000,000, gave it to Li Lu, who then turned it into 400 or 500,000,000.

难怪查理称李录为'中国巴菲特'。李录大学刚毕业就创立了喜马拉雅资本，这在当时几乎闻所未闻。芒格结识后本想招揽他加入伯克希尔，但深知这违背李录天性——他和芒格一样渴望自主掌控人生轨迹。2004年李录新基金成立时，芒格将家族8800万美元交给他管理。

So it's no wonder that Charlie referred to Li Lu as a Chinese Warren Buffet. Li Lu started Himalaya Capital right out of college, which was practically unheard of at the time to do. And after Munger had met Lee Lou, he wanted to hire him at Berkshire, but Munger just knew this was totally against his nature. Lee Lou is like Munger in that he sort of wants to run the show and have full autonomy over his life. Once Lee Lou started a new fund in 2004, Munger gave him $88,000,000 of his family's money.

李录官网阐述了喜马拉雅资本的理念：秉承本杰明·格雷厄姆、沃伦·巴菲特和查理·芒格的价值投资原则，通过长期持有具有强大经济护城河、高增长潜力且由可信赖团队管理的优质企业来获取超额回报。网站还收录了李录在2009年版《穷查理宝典》中关于棒球传奇泰德·威廉姆斯的文章——这位七十年来唯一击打率超四成的球员，其秘诀是将击球区划分为72个网格（每个棒球大小），只挥击最佳落点区域，即使可能三振出局也要避开成功率最低的击球位置。

So on Lee Lou's website, it shares what Himalaya Capital does. It says, They embrace the value investing principles of Benjamin Graham, Warren Buffett, and Charlie Munger, and aim to achieve superior returns by being long term owners of high quality companies with substantial economic moats, great growth potential, and run by trustworthy people. The website also shared a piece that Lee Lou wrote in Poor Charlie's Almanac, the 2009 edition where he talks about Ted Williams, who was the only baseball player who had a 400 batting average in the last seventy years. His technique to doing so was to divide the strike zone for hitting into 72 different cells. So each represented the size of a baseball and Ted Williams would only swing at what he considered to be his best sales, even at the risk of striking out because the worst spots is where the ball ended up going and it would significantly reduce his chances of success.

将这一概念应用于股市时，他解释道：虽然市面上有各式各样的企业可供投资，但大多数时候你只需保持观察即可。偶尔会出现那种所谓的'绝佳机会'——缓慢、直白且正中你投资甜区的球，这时你就要全力挥棒。他认为许多投资者频繁出手，反而错失了充分利用最佳机会的能力。当我查看Dataroma浏览李录的投资组合时，看到20亿美元资金仅配置在五家公司。这当然不包括他的海外持仓，但已足够让我理解他的投资风格。

To apply this concept to the stock market, he explains how all sorts of businesses are out there that we can invest in, but for the most part, you don't have to do a thing or two other than be amused. Once in a while, the quote unquote fat pitch that is slow, straight, and right in the middle of your sweet spot comes along and then you swing hard at it. He argues that many investors tend to swing too often and this leads them to not being able to take full advantage of the best opportunities. When I pull up Dataroma to get a glimpse into LiLu's portfolio, I see $2,000,000,000 in assets under management that's allocated to five companies. This of course excludes his international holdings, but it still gives me a sense of how he invests.

他的持仓相当集中，且行动充满高度信念。截至2024年第一季度，他持有 Alphabet、美国银行、伯克希尔哈撒韦、华美银行和苹果公司的股票。在深入探讨我找到的资料前，需要说明有些内容只是他演讲的摘要，由于这些演讲未被录音或文字记录，仅靠听众笔记整理，未必完全准确。请谨慎参考。我发现李录有几句名言与查理·芒格的理念极为相似。

He's fairly concentrated and really acts with high conviction. So as of Q1 twenty twenty four, he had holdings in Alphabet, Bank of America, Berkshire Hathaway, East West Bancorp, and Apple. So before I dive into some of the resources I found here, I'll mention that some parts are just summaries of talks he gave and may not necessarily be 100% accurate because these talks weren't recorded or written and people had taken notes on them. Please take all of this with a grain of salt. There are a couple of quotes that I found from Li Lu that are very much like what you hear from Charlie Munger.

第一点是知识的复利效应几乎与金钱的复利如出一辙。事实上，只有当你的知识积累速度超过财富增长时，你的资金才是安全的。对我而言，这是段迷人的旅程，也是充实的人生。第二句名言是：'你应该把积累知识和能力视为道德责任'。因此李录不仅在财富复利方面，在知识复利方面同样有着令人钦佩的故事。

The first is that knowledge compounds almost in the same way that your money compounds. In fact, only when your knowledge compounds at a faster pace, your money is safe. To me, that is a very fascinating journey and a rewarding life. And the second quote here is, You should consider it a moral duty to compound your knowledge and ability. So Li Lu has such an admirable story when it comes to not only compounding money, but also compounding knowledge.

当他逃离中国时几乎举目无亲，身无分文且负债累累，只想着如何在新生活中维持生计。1991年前后，他偶然听到沃伦·巴菲特的演讲，李录意识到自己或许能在投资领域有所作为。

After he escaped from China, he didn't hardly know anyone. He had no money. He was deep in debt and he just wanted to figure out how to make ends meet in this new life. Then around 1991, he found himself in a lecture that was done by Warren Buffett. And Leeloo thought that he might be able to make something of himself in this investment business.

巴菲特分享了从本杰明·格雷厄姆那里学到的核心原则：投资股票时不要把自己当作证券持有人，而要当作企业所有者；只在安全边际足够大时投资；让市场先生做你的仆人而非主人。此时距李录来到美国才两年，他满脑子想的还是如何支付账单。

Buffett shared the core principles he had learned from Benjamin Graham. Don't think of yourself as a security owner, but a business owner when investing in stocks. Invest only with a huge margin of safety and let Mr. Market be your servant, not your master. This was two years after Li Lu had come to America and all he was thinking about is how he was going to pay his bills.

听完巴菲特演讲后，他相信价值投资需要大量阅读、数学运算、勤奋工作和良好判断——这些都是他自认能够胜任的。价值投资的基本原则深深吸引着他：以低价买入优质证券。如果判断错误损失有限，若判断正确则获利丰厚。李录发现像价值投资者那样思考是个机会，因为这类投资者仅占市场5%的少数派。从情感上说，真正以价值投资者的思维行事并取得超额回报是极其困难的。

So after listening to Buffett speak, he believed that value investing required a lot of reading, a lot of mathematics, hard work, and good judgment, all things that he thought he would reasonably be able to do. And the fundamental principles of value investing really appealed to him, buy good securities at a bargain price. If you're wrong, you won't lose a lot, but if you're right, you're going to make a lot. Lee Lou saw an opportunity in thinking like a value investor because something like 5% of all investors fell under this camp and were a minority in the market. Emotionally, it's very difficult to think like a true value investor and achieve superior returns.

当多数人倾向于随波逐流时，真正的价值投资者能够安于独处，甘当股东中的少数派。你必须接受这个观念：正确与否取决于你的推理和证据，而非他人的认同。这也是我在采访弗朗索瓦·罗森时他提到的概念。李录和弗朗索瓦都认为这像是种基因突变，因为大多数人天生就习惯随大流——这曾帮助我们的祖先生存并传递基因。当事实表明应该另辟蹊径时，多数人基因里就不具备脱离群体、独立思考的能力。

While most are prone to following the crowd, a true value investor is comfortable sitting all alone and being in the minority of shareholders. You have to adopt the idea that you're right because of your reasoning and evidence, not because other people agree with you. This is a concept that Francois Rochon also mentioned during my interview with him. Li Lu and Francois both considered it sort of a genetic mutation because most people are hardwired to just stick and follow with the crowd because this is what helped their ancestors survive and pass along their genes. Most people are not genetically capable of straying away from the crowd and thinking differently when the facts suggest they should do so.

这个思想实验很有趣：如果股市参与者100%都是真正的价值投资者，那么整个市场就无法正常运转。没有哪个理性的投资者会愿意将股票卖给要求极高安全边际的人。如果每个人都像李录那样投资，几乎没人会参与新股发行来获取上市公司股票。李录曾花了两年时间全力研究巴菲特和芒格，因为他参加过巴菲特的讲座。他意识到，即使没有特殊的资金渠道、人脉或其他资源，仅靠这种被称为价值投资的方法，也能在美国取得巨大成功。

It's an interesting thought experiment that if a 100% of stock participants were true value investors, then you wouldn't be able to have a functioning market overall. No well informed investor would want to sell to someone that demands a huge margin of safety. And if everyone invested like Li Lu invests, hardly anyone would be purchasing IPOs to get public company shares traded on the market. For two years, Li Lu did everything he could learning about Buffett and Munger because he had attended that Buffett lecture. He figured that without any special access to money, connections, or whatever else, he could be quite successful in America doing this thing called value investing.

大学毕业后，他进入投行工作，并用所有积蓄投资股市。他并不喜欢本职工作，而且投资收入已超过工资收入。他很快意识到自己完全可以靠全职投资谋生。于是在1997年创办了自己的公司，部分原因是受到巴菲特和芒格关于自主经营理念的启发。李录也是《价值线》的忠实读者，这是一家提供各类公司信息的出版机构。

After college, he went to work at an investment bank and used all the money he had saved to invest in the stock market. And he didn't like his job and he was already making more from investing than he was from his job. He quickly realized that he could comfortably make a living as a full time investor. So he started up his own firm in 1997, partially due to the inspiration of Buffett and Munger to run your own company. LiLu was also a big fan of Valuline, which is a publication service that prints out information on all sorts of companies.

据我所知，《价值线》会发布市值达到一定标准公司的概况，而李录会从头到尾完整研读。他认为这是最好的教育方式，因为这让他获得了百科全书式的企业知识。他查看《价值线》时首先关注的是新低名单——那些创52周新低、市盈率最低或市净率最低的股票。如果你还没看过他2006年在哥伦比亚大学的演讲（YouTube上有），我强烈推荐。在那次演讲中，他用制鞋服装企业添柏岚(Timberland)作为案例，我在此简要概述。

I think they share an overview of any company above a certain market cap and Lee Lou would just read the whole thing from beginning to end. And he believed it was the best kind of education because it gave him really an encyclopedic knowledge of companies. The first thing that he liked to check-in Value Line was the new low list, stocks that were at fifty two week lows or stocks that had the lowest PE or lowest price to book. If you haven't seen his talk at Columbia that's on YouTube from 2006, I would highly recommend it. In his talk at Columbia in 2006, he used the example of Timberland, a shoe manufacturing company in apparel that I'm going to outline briefly here.

他首先用五秒钟快速扫视企业概况：股价约等于账面价值，资产主要由可变现的有形资产、营运资本和1亿美元房地产组成。他们用2亿美元资本创造了1亿美元回报。该企业交易价格低于李录所说的'干净账面价值'（即我提到的1亿美元数据）。随后他自问：为何这家企业如此便宜？发现亚洲金融危机最严重时，因其业务涉及亚洲地区，销售额出现断崖式下跌。

He starts with a quick five second look at the business and sees that it's trading at around book value consisting mostly of tangible liquid assets, working capital and $100,000,000 in real estate. They had $200,000,000 in capital deployed with a $100,000,000 return. The business was trading below what Li Lu called clean book value, which is the $100,000,000 figure I mentioned there. Then he asks himself why the business would have become so cheap. He finds that at the height of the Asian financial crisis, they saw their sales fall off a cliff because anything with exposure to Asia was just a disaster.

接着他发现没有分析师跟踪这家公司。然后他研究了企业历史：一直保持增长，盈利能力良好，无需依赖资本市场融资。

He then finds that no other analysts were covering the company. Then he looked at the business' history. It had been growing. It was pretty profitable. It didn't need to tap into the capital markets.

这是家家族企业，控股家族拥有40%股权和98%投票权。深入调查后，他发现存在大量股东诉讼案件，怀疑家族可能在榨取企业利润为己用。为此他下载了所有诉讼法庭文件逐一研读，虽未发现重大问题，但仍不确定管理层是否值得托付。于是唯一办法就是化身调查记者——因为多数企业所有者都会留下可供追踪的痕迹，从中可以看出他们应对各种情况的方式。

It was family owned as the family had control of 40% of the company and had 98% of the voting rights. Upon further research, he finds that there are a bunch of share shareholder lawsuits and he thinks that maybe the family is milking the business' profits for themselves. From there, he downloads every court document lawsuit and reads every single one of them. He found nothing too concerning in the lawsuits, but he still wasn't sure if the managers were good people that he'd want to be running a business that he owned. So the only way to find out was to turn into an investigative journalist because most business owners leave a trail for you to follow and see how they deal with different situations.

大多数职业经理人不会把这视为本职工作。正因如此，从定义上说，大部分经理人都不具备成为前5%跑赢市场者的能力。对李录而言，投资并不意味着登录交易平台进行操作，他绝大部分时间都用在研究和保持强烈求知欲上。他深知，知识储备越丰富，作为投资者就越有利。

Most professional managers wouldn't see this as a part of their job. And that is why by definition, most managers aren't in the 5% that have the capacity to outperform the market. Investing for Li Lu doesn't mean hopping on his investment platform and making trades or investments. The vast majority of his time is spent researching and having that intense curiosity and learning. He knows that the more he knows, the better off he is as an investor.

这种想要彻底了解一家企业的驱动力不仅仅源于赚钱的欲望。如果他仅仅想从中获利，很可能就不会研读那么多资料、穷尽所能地了解一家公司。正是那种深入骨髓的好奇心推动着他进行如此详尽的研究。他会继续与管理者认识的人交谈，甚至走访他们的邻居，只为真正了解这些管理者的为人。最终他会发现，这些人都是品行高尚、恪守商业道德的精英。

And this drive to figure out everything he can about a business isn't just a desire to make money. If he wanted to just make money from it, then he probably wouldn't have gone through all those materials and figured out everything he could about a company. He needed that really deep curiosity to drive that intense research. He'd go on to talk to the people the managers knew and talk to their neighbors to really get a sense of who the managers were. He'd then come to find that they were high quality people and ethical businessmen.

在尽可能收集了关于这家企业的所有信息后，他认定股价被严重低估，而他的优势在于他付出的努力至少超过90%的投资者。李路总是告诫分析师们，他需要的是精确完整的信息。他声称大多数人在这些方面都严重不足。要达到这种程度，你必须比别人多付出三英里二十码的努力——那些别人根本不愿付出的额外代价。

After consuming all of the information he possibly could on the business, he decided that the stock was far too low and his advantage was that he had simply done more work than at least 90% of other investors. Leeloo would always tell his analysts that he always needs accurate and complete information. He claims that most people fail on both of these big time. To get there, you have to go the extra three:twenty mile that others simply aren't willing to go.

让我们稍事休息，听听今天赞助商的消息。

Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors.

有没有注意到聪明的投资者总会对冲尾部风险，却几乎从不谈论金融压制？这里有个令人不安的真相：无论你如何谨慎构建投资组合，只要资金规则可能在一夜之间改变，你就处于风险之中。问问加拿大卡车司机的银行账户如何被冻结，古巴家庭的汇款如何被国有银行截留，或是数十个威权国家民众如何眼睁睁看着毕生积蓄在恶性通胀中蒸发。这些都不是孤立事件。

Ever notice how smart investors hedge against tail risk, but almost never talk about financial repression? Here's the uncomfortable truth. It doesn't matter how careful you build your portfolio because if the rules around your money can change overnight, you're vulnerable. Just ask the Canadian truckers whose bank accounts were frozen or Cuban families whose remittances were hijacked by state banks or citizens in dozens of authoritarian countries watching their life savings evaporate under hyperinflation. These aren't isolated incidents.

它们构成了全球性趋势。正因如此，人权基金会推出了《金融自由报告》这份每周通讯，追踪政府如何将货币武器化来控制民众，以及比特币如何帮助个人抵抗金融压制。如果你关注健全货币、个人主权和财务自由，这份报告是必读刊物。这是我本人订阅并从中获益良多的报告。免费订阅请访问financialfreedomreport.org。

They're part of a global pattern. That's why the Human Rights Foundation publishes the Financial Freedom Report, a weekly newsletter that tracks how governments weaponize money to control people and how Bitcoin is helping individuals resist financial repression. If you care about sound money, personal sovereignty, and financial freedom, HRF's financial freedom report is essential reading. This is a report that I'm personally subscribed to and learn a ton from. Sign up for free at financialfreedomreport.org.

网址是financialfreedomreport.org。精明投资者不仅关注美联储，更关注世界动向。

That's financialfreedomreport.org. Smart investors don't just watch the Fed, they watch the world.

作为小企业主，你没有提前下班的奢侈。你的生意二十四小时都在你脑海中运转。因此招聘时，你需要找到与你同样勤奋的合作伙伴。这个招聘伙伴就是领英招聘。当你下班时，领英才开始工作。

As a small business owner, you do not have the luxury of clocking out early. Your business is on your mind twenty four seven. So when you're hiring, you need a partner that works just as hard as you do. That hiring partner is LinkedIn jobs. When you clock out, LinkedIn clocks in.

LinkedIn让您能轻松免费发布职位，分享给您的社交网络，并在一处管理所有合格候选人。LinkedIn甚至能帮您撰写职位描述，通过深度候选人洞察快速将职位展示给合适人选。您可以免费发布职位或付费推广以获得三倍合格申请者。使用LinkedIn，您可以自信获得最佳申请人——72%使用LinkedIn的中小企业表示这帮助他们找到高质量候选人。立即了解为何我们企业和超过250万家其他中小企业选择LinkedIn进行招聘。

LinkedIn makes it easy to post your job for free, share it with your network and get qualified candidates that you can manage all in one place. LinkedIn can even help you write job descriptions and quickly get your job in front of the right people with deep candidate insights. You can post your job for free or promote it to get three times more qualified applicants. And with LinkedIn, you can feel confident that you're getting the best applicants as 72% of small and medium sized businesses using LinkedIn say it helps them find high quality candidates. Find out why our business and more than 2,500,000 other small businesses use LinkedIn for hiring today.

免费发布职位请访问linkedin.com/studybill。即linkedin.com/studybill免费发布职位。条款与条件适用。OnRamp是为长期安心打造的一站式比特币金融服务公司。

Post your job for free at linkedin.com/studybill. That's linkedin.com/studybill to post your job for free. Terms and conditions apply. OnRamp is a full suite Bitcoin financial services firm built for long term peace of mind.

他们提供从顶尖机构级托管、低成本交易到遗产规划、借贷及保险等全套服务，旨在帮助客户长期保护和增值比特币资产。核心是获得伦敦劳合社支持的OnRamp多机构托管模式，通过将多重签名金库密钥分发给三家独立受监管托管方来消除单点故障。采用冷存储、链上可审计且完全由终端客户控制，同时免去私钥管理负担。随着行业最有效的比特币购买方式OnRamp Trade的推出，现在比以往更容易邀请亲友同事开启比特币之旅——他们需要的正是一个专注比特币的安全伙伴。

They offer everything from best in class institutional grade custody and low cost trading to inheritance planning, lending, and insurance. All designed to help clients protect and grow their Bitcoin over time. At the core is OnRamp's multi institution custody model backed by Lloyd's of London, which eliminates single points of failure by distributing keys of multisig vaults across three independent regulated custodians. It's cold storage, on chain auditable, and fully controlled by the end client, but without the burdens of private key management. And now with the launch of on ramp trade, the industry's most effective way to buy Bitcoin, it's easier than ever to onboard friends, family, and colleagues who want a secure Bitcoin only partner to start their journey.

注册流程无缝衔接，推荐人在 onboarding 过程中输入信息即可获得比特币奖励。从初始积累到跨代财富规划，OnRamp 让安全与简洁完美融合。详情请访问 onrampbitcoin.com。

Signing up is seamless and referrals can be entered during onboarding to earn rewards in Bitcoin. From initial accumulation to multigenerational wealth planning, OnRamp is where security meets simplicity. Learn more at onrampbitcoin.com. That's onrampbitcoin.com.

好的，我们回到节目。

All right. Back to the show.

这至关重要，因为最优秀的价值投资者大多数时候都处于与众人逆向而行的状态。这让我想起威廉·格林在其著作《更富有、更睿智、更快乐》中题为《甘于孤独》的章节，该章节聚焦于约翰·坦普顿爵士。现在正是买入我之前提到的Timberland股票的时机，但买多少？多数投资者只会建立微小仓位，但李录绝非寻常投资者。

This is so critical because the best value investors most of the time are standing alone relative to everybody else. I'm reminded of William Green's chapter in his book, Richer, Wiser, Happier titled The Willingness to Be Lonely. This is the chapter that was focused on Sir John Templeton. So now is the time to buy the Timberland stock that I had mentioned earlier, but how much? Most investors would take tiny positions, but Li Lu isn't like most other investors.

他建立超过10%甚至可能超过20%的大仓位。李录大举押注Timberland，两年后该股因盈利增长和估值倍数扩张上涨700%。市盈率从5倍升至15倍，同时保持30%的年增长率。他谈到自己如何付出巨大努力研究企业问题、评估真实价值并掌握一切可能信息——而多数基金远不会如此深耕，因此他们只敢建立微小仓位。

He takes these big chunky positions well over 10%, perhaps more than 20%. Li Lu bet big on Timberland and two years later, the stock went up by 700% propelled by increasing earnings and an expanded multiple. The stock went from five times earnings to 15 times earnings and was growing at 30% per year. He talked about how he goes to all this tremendous effort to figure out the issues within a business, how much it's really worth and figure out everything he can about it. And most funds wouldn't do near that work, so they take these small tiny positions.

李录不会仅仅为了建立1%或2%的头寸就做这么多工作。如果你发现几乎没有下行风险却有巨大上行空间，他认为你理应重仓押注。在2010年哥伦比亚大学的讲座笔记中，布鲁斯·格林沃尔德曾提到李录管理着查理·芒格的全部资金——当然不包括伯克希尔哈撒韦的股份。格林沃尔德还声称沃伦·巴菲特更希望由三个人来管理他的财富，这三人分别是赛斯·卡拉曼、格雷格·亚历山大和李录。

Li Lu isn't going to do all this work just to take a 1% or 2% position. If you figure out that you have virtually no downside and tremendous upside, then he reasons that you might as well bet big on it. In the notes on his lecture at Columbia in 2010, Bruce Greenwald had stated that Li Lu managed all of Charlie Munger's money, which of course excluded his shares of Berkshire Hathaway. And Greenwald also claimed that Warren Buffett would prefer that three people manage his money. These three people included Seth Klarman, Greg Alexander, and Lee Lou.

在2010年哥伦比亚大学的这场讲座中，他谈到当你在研究道路上发现真知灼见时，必须有胆量和勇气全仓押注，无视他人意见。这让你能感受到李录作为投资者的风格。他把自己训练成学习机器，致力于快速抓住机会——在列车离站之前。你需要构建这样的认知体系：掌握多数人不知道的信息。

At this lecture at Columbia in 2010, he talked about how when you find those insights along the road of study, you need to have the guts and the courage to back up the truck and ignore the opinions of everyone else. So that gives you a sense of the type of investor that Li Lu is. He trained himself to become a learning machine. He devoted himself to seizing the opportunities and seizing it fast before the train left the station. You want to find yourself in a setup where you can know something that most other people don't know.

多数人不采取这种深入方法，因为他们把股票视为可随意交易的代码。正因交易便利，他们认为无需深入理解。他不断寻找新思路，深知最佳创意稀缺且只能通过持续学习获得。他曾说人生可能只有5到10次关键顿悟时刻，而这些顿悟与重大理念能带来万倍回报。巴菲特说过：'如果在四十年职业生涯中找到10个优质投资，你就会变得极其富有。'

Most people don't take this sort of thorough approach because they view stocks as tickers that can easily be traded. And because they can easily be traded, they don't need to be well understood. He's constantly searching for new ideas and knew that the best ideas were rare and could only be gained from continuous learning. He stated that in life, you may only have five to 10 key moments of insight and those key moments of insight and those big ideas can deliver 10000x returns. Buffett said, If you can find 10 good investments over your forty year career, you're going to be extraordinarily rich.

对于想掌握关键洞察方法的人，他让实习生做一项练习：选择一家企业并真正理解它。想象远亲去世后你将继承该企业100%股权。带着这种心态，你就能透彻理解它。这家企业不必很优秀，任何企业都可以。

For those that want to learn how to come to these key insights, he tells his interns to work through a certain exercise. Pick one business and start to truly understand it. Imagine a distant relative passed away and you found out that you were going to inherit 100% of that business. Once you have that mindset, you can start to understand it inside out. And it doesn't have to be a great business, it could be any business.

要弄清它如何盈利、如何组织财务、管理层如何决策、与竞争对手的差异、如何适应环境、如何配置闲置资金及融资方式。这会让你站在100%所有者的角度思考，从而超越那些把股票当作可随意买卖代码的竞争者。但如果你继承了企业全部股权，你不会交易它，而是会真正探究其运作机制与管理之道。从内部运作入手，最终才能判断企业真实价值。

Understand how it makes money, how it organizes its finances, how the management team makes its decisions, how it compares to the competition, how it adjusts to the environment, how it invests extra cash and how it finances its business. This gives you an idea of how you would do as a 100% owner, which gives you a leg up on the competition who typically view stocks as a ticker that they can trade in and out of freely just because it's easy to do so. But if you inherited 100% of that business, you wouldn't be trading it. You would really seek to understand the inner workings of it, how it works, and how it should be run. If you start with the inner workings, you can eventually determine how much that business is worth.

每个长期投资者都会经历持仓股价暴跌的时期，2020年3月就是最新例证。当企业价值骤跌时，投资者面临考验。而这正是最佳机遇浮现之时，你的心性与判断力将发挥关键作用。对企业理解越深、估值越准，就越能在这种时期做出明智决策。最佳机会需要查理·芒格所说的'lollapalooza效应'——多种因素协同作用，而你既有洞察又敢重注。

Every long term investor is going to go through some period where the quoted share price of their holdings gets hammered, March 2020 being the most recent example of this. As business values plummet, investors were put to the test. And during this period is when the best opportunities arise and your temperament and judgment really come in handy. And the better you understand the businesses and how much they're worth, the better judgment calls you can make during those time periods. The best opportunities require what Charlie Munger calls the Lollapalooza effect, where a whole bunch of these factors are working together and you have that insight and you're willing to bet big on it.

他深知强烈好奇心终会带来新的伟大创意，这些创意无需频繁出现，但每次都必须把握。有些年份可能毫无机会，有些年份则机会纷呈，不可能指望它们均匀分布。基金成立第一年恰逢亚洲金融危机，他投资了优秀的亚洲企业及美加石油公司，当时投资者寥寥无几。

He knew that his deep curiosity would eventually bring him a new great idea and they didn't have to come often for him to make them count. There might be years without opportunities and there might be years with a lot of them. You can't expect them to come at a steady pace. In year one of his fund, he was in the middle of the Asian financial crisis and he bought into excellent Asian companies and oil companies in The US and Canada. He had very few investors.

该基金当年下跌了19%，他筹集更多资金时遇到了极大困难。对李录而言，这段时期心理上非常煎熬，因为他几乎入不敷出，且基金所有事务都需亲力亲为。他最终战胜了逆境，随后两年取得了惊人回报。但吸引新投资者仍很困难——大多数投资者尤其是机构投资者信奉的理论，被李录认为是荒谬的。

The fund was down 19% on the year and he had a really tough time bringing in more money. Psychologically, this was a very difficult period for Li Lu since he was barely making ends meet and he was performing every function related to the fund himself. And he fought through that adversity and ended up achieving exceptional returns over the two years that followed. But he still had trouble attracting new investors. Most investors, especially institutional investors believed in theories that Li Lu deemed to be absurd.

比如有效市场假说和风险等于波动性的观点。多数投资者与追随巴菲特、芒格的人仿佛说着不同语言。在李录、查理·芒格和沃伦·巴菲特看来，股市风险不在于价格波动，而在于是否会造成本金永久损失。因此股价下跌非但不是风险，反而可能蕴藏机会。有几年李录曾对基金和投资者做出妥协，例如增加空头仓位以试图平抑波动。

Things like the efficient market hypothesis and the idea that risk equals volatility. It was as if most investors spoke a different language than those who followed Buffett and Munger. In the view of Li Lu, Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett, risk in the stock market was not in the volatility of prices, but whether you will have a permanent loss of capital. So not only is a drop in the stock price not a risk, but it may present an opportunity. For a few years, Li Lu had made some compromises with his fund and his investors, such as adding to short positions to try and dampen the volatility of it.

这种做法确实降低了波动性，但也导致回报率下降。更重要的是，这分散了他寻找最佳机会的精力。2003年李录见到查理·芒格时，倾诉了与那些缺乏巴菲特、芒格式长期思维的股东打交道的困扰。芒格告诉他，除非重组基金结构，否则问题将持续存在。而若进行重组，芒格愿意投资。

And this was successful in dampening the volatility, but it also delivered lower returns. And most importantly, it distracted him from finding the best opportunities. When Li Lu met Charlie Munger in 2003, he had shared the issues he had in dealing with shareholders that really didn't think long term in the way that Buffett and Munger did. And Munger told him that his problems would continue unless he restructured his fund. And if he did restructure it, then Munger was willing to invest with them.

在查理协助下完成基金结构调整后，传统对冲基金的缺陷全部迎刃而解。同意长期留守的投资者签署了锁定期协议，同时他们也不再接纳新投资者。如今他不再受市场涨跌困扰，能将全部时间投入商业研究。自1998年1月起随后12年间，其基金年复合增长率超29%，十二年实现20倍增长。2004年底启动第二只基金后，回报更为优异。

Once he changed the fund structure with Charlie's help, all of the shortcomings of a typical hedge fund just withered away. Investors who agreed to stay and stick around for the long term signed lockup agreements and they also stopped accepting new investors. Now he wasn't bothered with the ups and downs in the market and could now devote all of his time to researching and understanding businesses. From January 1998, over the twelve years that followed, the compounded annual growth rate of his fund was over 29 and it increased 20 fold over just a twelve year timeframe. The returns were even better starting in late two thousand and four, which I believe is when he launched that second fund.

2004年第四季度至2009年间，新基金年均回报率达36%。除遵循格雷厄姆提出的基本原则外，李录深刻践行了查理·芒格的逆向思维模型——他首先考虑的不是如何赚钱，而是如何在每笔投资中避免亏损。这与安全边际原则直接相关：未来本质不可预测，总会遭遇意外，好坏参半。

From Q4, two thousand and four to the 2009, that new fund achieved an annualized return of 36% per year. In addition to the key principles originally outlined by Graham, Li Lu took to heart Charlie Munger's mental model of inversion. Instead of thinking about how he could make money, he first had to figure out how he could possibly lose in any particular investment. This ties in directly with the margin of safety principle as well. The future is fundamentally unpredictable and you're always going to be dealt surprises, some positive and some negative.

李录与查理私交甚笃，他为《穷查理宝典》中文版撰写的序言非常值得一读，其中提及一些关于查理的新鲜轶事。当我们研究众多传奇投资者及其投资方法时，很容易对新策略产生迷恋。有人曾问李录其方法与沃伦·巴菲特有何不同，他的回答令人激赏，在此引用部分：'投资这场游戏的部分意义在于找到最适合自己的方式'。

Li Lu was quite close to Charlie and his forward to the Chinese edition of Poor Charlie's Almanac is a really good read and touches on some things about Charlie that I hadn't read before. So when learning about all these different legendary investors and studying different investments, it's so easy to fall in love with a new investment or a new approach. Lee Liu was once asked how his approach differed from Warren Buffett's. And I really liked the answer he gave that I'm going to read here. So I quote, Part of the game of investing is to come into your own.

你必须找到完全契合个性的方法，因为投资中存在零和博弈成分：你买入时必有人卖出，你卖出时必有人买入。双方不可能同时正确，你必须确保自己比交易对手掌握更充分的信息、拥有更缜密的逻辑。

You must find some way that perfectly fits your personality because there is some element of a zero sum game in investing. If you buy, somebody else has to sell. And when you sell, somebody else has to buy. You can't both be right. You really want to be sure that you are better informed and better reasoned than the person on the other side of the trade.

这是个竞争激烈的游戏，你会遇到许多聪明勤奋的对手。要想获得优势，唯有通过长期艰苦的努力。做你热爱的事，这样你自然会持续投入其中。即便在休闲时，甚至在公园散步时。久而久之，这种自然而然的状态会让你积累巨大优势。

It is a competitive game, so you're going to run into a lot of very intelligent, hardworking fellows. The only way to gain an edge is through long and hard work. Do what you love to do so you just naturally do it and think about it all the time. Even if you're just relaxing and even if you're just walking in the park. Over time, you can accumulate a huge advantage if it comes naturally to you like this.

真正找到自己风格并坚持发挥天性的人将获得巨大优势。投资游戏是个发现的过程——发现你是谁、你的兴趣所在、你的专长、你热爱的事业，然后不断放大这些优势直到超越众人。如何确认自己确实更胜一筹？查理·芒格常说：除非我能成功反驳最聪明对手的最佳反论，否则我不会认为自己有资格持有某个观点。

The ones who really figure out their own style and stick to it and let their natural temperament take over will have a big advantage. The game of investing is a process of discovering. Discovering who you are, what you're interested in, what you're good at, what you love to do, then magnifying that until you gain a sizable edge over all other people. When do you know you're really better? Charlie Munger always said, I would not feel entitled to a view unless I could successfully argue against the best counter argument of the smartest opponent.

他这话说得很对。投资本质是预测未来，而未来本就不可预测。因此，唯一能做得更好的方法就是评估所有事实，真正明白自己知道什么、不知道什么。这就是你的概率优势。没有什么是100%确定的，但当你拥有压倒性优势时果断出手，长期来看你会做得很好。

He's right about that. Investing is about predicting the future and the future is inherently unpredictable. Therefore, the only way you can do it better is to assess all the facts and truly know what you know and know what you don't know. That's your probability edge. Nothing is 100%, but if you always swing when you have an overwhelmingly better edge, then over time you will do very well.

我很欣赏他提到的这其实是我们所有人的发现之旅——发现我们是谁、我们的兴趣所在和我们的专长。想想那些你天然被吸引且乐于学习的领域，这些很可能就是你能够建立优势的地方。当李录被问及能力圈时，他谈到自己对中国、亚洲和美国市场的深刻理解。

I like how he mentioned here that it's really a discovery process for all of us. Discovering who we are, what we're interested in and what we're good at. Think about the subjects that you naturally gravitate to and enjoy learning about. Those are some of the most likely areas where you're going to be able to gain an edge. When Li Lu was asked about his circle of competence, he talked about how he knew China, Asia, and the American markets very well.

他还谈到自己作为投资者的成长历程。刚入行时他首要考虑的是避免亏损，于是专注于那些极其廉价的证券，比如雪茄烟蒂型投资。但随着时间推移，他越来越熟悉不同的商业模式，更深入理解企业的DNA，观察企业如何随时间发展，以及为何有些企业如此强大。最终他深深爱上了优质企业，但始终保持着对超低价证券的最初偏好。

And he also talked about his development as an investor. When he was first starting out, he wanted to ensure he didn't lose money. He started to focus on these really cheap securities like the cigar butt types. But over time he became more and more acquainted with different business models and getting a better understanding of the DNA of businesses, how these businesses progress over time and why some businesses are just so, so strong. And over time, he really fell in love with strong businesses, but never lost his initial taste for really cheap securities.

他曾说：'我越来越被那些天生优越、更具竞争力、更易预测且拥有强大管理团队的卓越企业所吸引。'李录确实言行一致——根据13F文件显示，Alphabet是他最大的持仓（当然这不包括美国以外的投资）。Alphabet绝非疯狂低估的公司，而是一家他以合理价格买入的优质企业。截至2024年3月31日，他的基金在Alphabet上的投资超过8亿美元。看来李录经历了与巴菲特和芒格相似的转型——虽然从雪茄烟蒂投资中获得了最佳回报，但随着资金规模增长，这种投资方法确实难以持续。

He had said that I quote, I've become more attracted to looking for great businesses that are inherently superior, more competitive, easier to predict and with strong management teams. Lee Lou definitely puts his money where his mouth is as Alphabet is his largest holding according to his 13F filing, which doesn't include what is outside The US of course. But Alphabet is certainly not a crazy cheap company, but more so a high quality business that he was able to get in at a fair price. As of 03/31/2024, his fund had over $800,000,000 invested in Alphabet. It seems that Li Lu went a similar transition to Buffett and Munger in that he got probably his best returns out of the cigar butts, but this method of investing really doesn't scale as your capital grows.

当你管理50亿美元时，那些微型或纳米市值股票根本无足轻重。当被问及做空时，他表示已不再进行这种'职业生涯中最糟糕的错误之一'的操作。他指出即使做空判断100%正确，仍可能因无限亏损风险而破产。他现在完全不做空——我想我们大多数听众也是如此。李录曾被问及对资产管理行业的整体看法，我觉得他在这方面有些独到见解。

If you have $5,000,000,000 these tiny micro or nano caps really aren't going to move the needle for you anymore. He was asked about shorting stocks, which he said he no longer does and was one of the worst mistakes he's ever made. He mentioned that you could be a 100% right about your short, but still bankrupt yourself because you expose yourself to unlimited downside. He no longer shorts, which I suspect most of our audience doesn't do as well. Lee Lou was once asked about the asset management industry more broadly, and I thought that he had some interesting insights related to this.

资产管理行业确实很棘手，因为它是少数几个你购买服务时很难判断其质量的行业之一，而且不同管理人的水平可能天差地别。正因如此，李录认为所有投资从业者都应把追求真理和智慧作为道德义务，并有意识地避免让自身立场决定观点。他真正想强调的是激励机制问题——根据个人处境，人们自然会做对自己最有利的事而非对客户最有利的事。你真正需要的是让这两种利益保持一致。

The asset management industry is really tricky because it's one of the few industries where you're purchasing a service where you really have a hard time determining the quality of what you're buying and the quality can vary drastically across different managers. Because of this, Li Lu believes that all investment professionals should make it their ethical obligation to seek truth and seek wisdom and consciously refrain from allowing where you sit to determine what you think. So what he's getting at here really is incentives. Depending on someone's particular situation, they're going to naturally do what's in their best interest rather than what's in the best interest of their clients. You really want those interests to be aligned.

例如，采用'2%管理费+20%超额收益'收费结构的基金经理有动力扩大资产管理规模。因此他们可能花更多时间在基金募资、营销上，而非以最佳方式投资现有资产。他还说资产管理人必须培养受托责任意识，对待托管的每一分钱都要像对待父母毕生勤俭积攒的血汗钱。他表示：'当你能把客户的每分钱都当作父母的养老钱时，才会开始理解受托责任的真谛。'他建议只投资具备这种特质的经理人，并认为这种特质极难后天习得，几乎是与生俱来的。

For example, many managers who have a two and twenty fee structure have an incentive to grow their asset base. So they may spend more time on growing their fund, marketing their fund, or rather than investing their current assets in the best possible way. He also said that asset managers need to develop a sense of fiduciary duty and treat every single penny that's entrusted with them to be treated as if it were money your parents had worked really hard for and saved with thrift over their lifetime. He stated, When you can treat every penny of your client's money as their life savings of your parents, you will begin to understand the meaning of fiduciary duty. He advises only investing with managers who seem to have this trait and learning this trait is very, very difficult if not impossible as he believes it's something we're born with.

李录也是历史研究的集大成者。他发现长期来看股票是收益最好的资产类别——1801年至2014年间股票年化实际回报达6.7%，但每十年期的回报波动很大：可能先经历十年10%以上的高回报，接着十年市场整体停滞不前。他还发现尽管股市投资方法众多，但基于数据和统计，只有一种方法能长期为客户带来安全且卓越的回报。

Li Lu is also a big student of history. He saw that over the long run, stocks were by far the best asset class to invest in over the long run. From 1801 through 2014, stocks returned 6.7% per year after inflation, but the return profile from one decade to the next can be quite volatile. You might have one really good decade of 10% plus returns followed by a decade where the market overall really goes nowhere. He also found that despite there being a number of different approaches to investing in the stock market, there was only one method that based on data and based on statistics could deliver safe and outstanding returns to clients over a long period of time.

这就是价值投资。对李录而言，价值投资意味着遵循四条原则，其中三条来自本杰明·格雷厄姆，第四条来自沃伦·巴菲特。第一原则是股票代表企业的部分所有权。这意味着随着公司价值增长，你作为股东的财富也会同步增长。他指出很少有人能这样理解股票。

This was value investing. Value investing to LILU means that the investor adheres to four principles, three of which came from Benjamin Graham and the fourth came from Warren Buffett. The first principle was that stocks represent fractional ownership in a real business. This recognizes that as the value of the company increases over time, then your wealth as a shareholder will also increase with it. He argues that few people understand stocks in this manner.

第二原则是理解'市场先生'的角色。股市就像买卖企业部分所有权的拍卖会。成功的价值投资者会让市场先生服务于自己——当市场先生...

The second principle is understanding the role of Mr. Market. The stock market is like an auction to buy or sell fractional ownership of a business. Successful value investors let Mr. Market serve them in acquiring shares when Mr.

...以优惠价格提供企业部分所有权时买入，当同一家公司被市场先生充分定价或高估时卖出。市场先生永远无法告诉你股票的真实价值，只能告诉你当前价格。这是极其关键的洞见。

Market offers a good deal to acquire partial ownership in a company, and then sell shares when the same company is fully priced or overpriced by Mr. Market. Mr. Market can never tell you what the true value of a stock is, it can only tell you what the price is. This is a super critical insight.

第三原则是安全边际原则。由于投资需要预测未来，我们永远无法100%确定预测的准确性。因此成功的价值投资者在买入时会留足误差空间。如果以较大安全边际买入，判断错误时损失可控，判断正确时回报丰厚。最后，第四条原则来自...

The third principle is buying with a margin of safety. Since investing involves forecasting into the future and making predictions, we can never be 100% certain that our predictions are correct or accurate. This is why successful value investors leave a wide margin for error when making a purchase. If you buy with a large margin of safety, then your losses when you're wrong will be minimized your gains when you're right will reward you adequately. And finally, the fourth principle, comes from Mr.

巴菲特主张在能力圈内投资。通过大量阅读、积累经验和付出努力，投资者可以建立自己的能力圈，从而比绝大多数其他投资者更深入地理解企业和行业。凭借这种洞察力，这些投资者能更准确地预测公司的未来前景。关于这一点，李路曾写道，我引用原话：‘能力圈概念的核心在于知晓边界。真正的能力不可能是无远弗届的。’

Buffett is on investing within your circle of competence. With a lot of reading, experience, and effort, investors can build their circle of competence to understand the business and industry better than the vast majority of other investors. Given this level of insight, these investors can make more accurate predictions about what the future will look like for a company. With regards to this, Lee Lou wrote, I quote, The most important idea behind circle of competence is knowing the boundaries. No real competence can be limitless.

当你提出一个论点时，必须能够告诉我哪些前提会推翻这个论点。如果你能做到这点，你的论点就是健全的。如果你只是陈述结论而不提供前提，你的论点就经不起推敲，引用结束。

When you advance an argument, you must be able to tell me which premises will disprove this argument. If you're able to do so, your argument is sound invalid. If you simply state the conclusion without providing the premise, your argument will not stand up to scrutiny, end quote.

我们稍作休息

Let's take a quick break

听听今天赞助商的消息

and hear from today's sponsors.

初创企业行动迅速。借助人工智能，它们的产品迭代更快，能更早吸引企业买家。但大单交易会带来更严格的安全合规要求。仅SOC2认证往往不够，恰当的安全措施能决定交易成败。

Startups move fast. And with AI, they're shipping even faster and attracting enterprise buyers sooner. But big deals bring even bigger security and compliance requirements. A SOC two isn't always enough. The right kind of security can make a deal or break it.

但哪位创始人或工程师能抽离公司建设的时间？Vanta的人工智能自动化系统能在数日内帮你准备好大单交易。Vanta持续监控合规状态，确保未来交易永不受阻。其系统随企业成长而扩展，全程提供支持保障。面对AI引发的法规变化和买家预期调整，Vanta精准把握需求节点，为你打造最快最便捷的达标路径。

But what founder or engineer can afford to take time away from building their company? Vanta's AI and automation make it easy to get big deals ready in days. And Vanta continuously monitors your compliance so future deals are never blocked. Plus Vanta scales with you, backed by support that's there when you need it every step of the way. With AI changing regulations and buyers' expectations, Vanta knows what's needed and when, and they've built the fastest, easiest path to help you get there.

因此严肃的初创企业都选择Vanta提前筑牢安全防线。我们的听众可在vanta.com/billionaires获得1000美元优惠。访问vanta.com/billionaires立省1000美元。所有企业都在思考同一个问题：如何让AI为我们所用？

That's why serious startups get secure early with Vanta. Our listeners get $1,000 off at vanta.com/billionaires. That's vanta.com/billionaires for $1,000 off. Every business is asking the same question. How do we make AI work for us?

可能性无限而猜测风险太大，但袖手旁观绝非选择，因为有一点几乎可以确定。您的竞争对手已在行动，所以时不我待。借助甲骨文NetSuite，您今天就能运用AI。作为43000多家企业信赖的头号AI云ERP，NetSuite将财务、库存、商务、人力资源和CRM整合为统一真相源。

The possibilities are endless and guessing is too risky, But sitting on the sidelines is not an option because one thing is almost certain. Your competitors are already making their moves, so there isn't time to wait. With NetSuite by Oracle, you can put AI to work today. NetSuite is the number one AI cloud ERP trusted by over 43,000 businesses. It's a unified suite that brings your financials, inventory, commerce, HR, and CRM into a single source of truth.

智能自动化日常任务、降低成本并自信做出AI驱动决策。无论公司营收数百万还是数亿，NetSuite助您保持领先。若我需要这类产品，这正是我会选择的。立即获取免费商业指南《揭秘AI》，请访问netsuite.com/study。该指南在netsuite.com/study免费提供。

Intelligently automate routine tasks, cut costs, and make AI powered decisions with confidence. Whether your company earns millions or even hundreds of millions, NetSuite helps you stay ahead of the pack. And if I needed this product, it is what I would use. Right now, get their free business guide, Demystifying AI at netsuite.com/study. The guide is free to you at netsuite.com/study.

想象一下：午夜时分，您躺在床上浏览新发现的网站，将心仪商品加入购物车。准备结账时想起钱包在客厅，却不愿下床去取。正当您要放弃购物车时，那个紫色购物按钮映入眼帘——它已保存所有支付和配送信息，让您安享床榻时光。这就是Shopify。

Picture this, it's midnight, you're lying in bed scrolling through this new website you found and hitting the add to cart button on that item you've been looking for. Once you're ready to check out, you remember that your wallet is in your living room and you don't want to get out of bed to go get it. Just as you're getting ready to abandon your cart, that's when you see it, that purple shop button. That shop button has all of your payment and shipping info saved, saving you time while in the comfort of your own bed. That's Shopify.

包括我在内的众多企业选择Shopify有其道理。从结账到创建独立店面，Shopify让一切更简单。作为全球数百万企业的商务平台，它支撑着美国10%的电商交易。从美泰、Gymshark等家喻户晓的品牌到我这样刚起步的商家，Shopify提供全球转化率最高的结账系统。

And there's a reason so many businesses, including mine, sell with it. Because Shopify makes everything easier, from checkout to creating your own storefront. Shopify is the commerce platform behind millions of businesses all around the world and 10% of all e commerce in The US. From household names like Mattel and Gymshark to brands like mine that are still getting started. And Shopify gives you access to the best converting checkout on the planet.

让Shopify助您将宏大商业构想变为现实，日后您会感谢我的。立即注册每月1美元试用，今天就开始销售：shopify.com/wsb。访问shopify.com/wsb即可。

Turn your big business idea into reality with Shopify on your side and thank me later. Sign up for your $1 per month trial and start selling today at shopify.com/wsb. That's shopify.com/wsb.

好了，回到节目。

All right, back to the show.

市场总有办法暴露那些在能力圈外操作且不明就里的投资者。因为市场整体非常聪明，那些一时幸运的人终将看到运气消散。他认为投资市场真正的风险在于越出能力圈行事。我认为当您真正领悟这四个概念时，也会理解价值投资为何如此艰难。

The market really has a way of exposing those investors who are operating outside of that circle of competence and don't know what they're doing. This is because the market overall is very smart. And those who get lucky over time will see that luck fade away. He argues that the real risk investing in the market is investing outside of your circle of competence. And I think when you really learn these four concepts, you also understand why value investing can be so difficult.

市场打压股票往往有其道理，但价值投资者擅长发现价格与价值间罕见且巨大的错配。我认为从心理和情感层面，人们很难真正将自身对企业价值的判断与市场定价区分开来。李录也信奉投资优秀企业的理念，认为价值投资者的回报将来自企业内在价值的长期增长，以及市值向内在价值靠拢带来的潜在收益。李录多次谈及对中国市场的投资，据我所知这是他自入行起就深耕的领域。他还指出中国可能经历类似1929年大萧条或2008年金融危机的经济困境。

Oftentimes the market is right in beating down a stock, but value investors are the ones who are able to find the rare and large mismatch between the price and the value. I think psychologically and emotionally, people have a tough time truly detaching what they believe a business is worth from what the market says a business is worth. Li Lu also believes in investing in great businesses and that the return of a value investor will be achieved through the growth of the intrinsic value of that business over time, plus the potential return you get from the market value approaching the intrinsic value. Li Lu has also talked a good amount about investing in China, which to my knowledge is a market he studied and been invested in since the beginning. He's also stated that China could go through economic troubles similar to that of the great depression in 1929 or the great financial crisis in 2008.

我不认为李录是那种会随意预测的人。在与布鲁斯·格林沃德的访谈中，当被问及2021年市场状况时，他原话说道：'我们通常不太研究市场，除非处于极端情况。当前就是这样一个极端时期，我们在很多方面都处于未知领域——天量的流动性投放、利率水平与缓慢的增长速度。'这里要补充说明，2021年利率水平极低，而到2024年已明显上升。

And I don't think Li Lu is one to make those types of predictions. In an interview with Bruce Greenwald, when he was asked about the current market conditions in 2021, he had stated, I quote, We usually don't study the market too much except when they're at the extremes. Today is one of the more extreme periods and in many ways we are in uncharted territory. The amount of liquidity that has been printed, the level of interest rates and the slow pace of growth. I guess I'll mention here that interest rates in 2021 were quite low and they've risen here in 2024.

这些因素都相当不寻常。如何应对？我们认为历史不会简单重演，因为每次情况都有差异。与其猜测历史规律，我们更关注选择能穿越周期的企业。无论环境如何变化，商业活动总会继续，总有企业能脱颖而出。

All of these factors are quite remarkable. How do you deal with them? We don't think history repeats itself because every time is slightly different. Instead of guessing the patterns of history, we focus on selecting companies that can live through thick and thin. Whatever the environment, business will continue and somebody will do well.

在论证中国投资价值时，他首先指出美国股市长期能为投资者带来良好回报，这源于GDP增长带动企业利润提升，加之通胀推高股票价值。他对比了1991-2014年中美两国数据，期间两国股市表现俱佳：美国市场年化约10%（因指数而异），而中国指数年化收益在10%-13%之间，这同样得益于GDP增长和通胀因素。

In making the case for investing in China, he first outlined how it's well known that in The US, stocks over the long run tend to generate good returns for investors because of the growth in GDP, which leads to growth in corporate profits, in addition to inflation lifting up the value of stocks over time. He looked at data from 1991 to 2014 for both The United States and China, and both stock markets performed very well. US markets performed around 10% per year, depending on which index you look at. And then the Chinese indexes returned anywhere between 1013%. And again, this is due to GDP growth and then you have inflation as well.

但2014年后中美指数回报差距悬殊：截至当时，标普500年化回报略超10%，而中国沪深300指数基本持平，且波动剧烈。李录特别提到中国是高度杠杆化的经济体，且政府持有市场流通股的绝大部分，但他本人并不投资这些指数。

With that said, when I look at the Chinese index returns since 2014, the returns relative to The US really aren't even close. Since the end of 2014, the S and P 500 has returned to just over 10% annually And the SCI 300, which is the Chinese index is essentially flat. It's also had a lot of volatility along the way. Li Lu also points out that China is a highly leveraged economy and the Chinese government owns a lion's share of the stocks that are traded in the market. But Li Lu does not invest in these indexes.

他专注投资个股。中国有许多像美国市场那样的超级赢家企业，例如百度在十年间实现48%的内部收益率，涨幅达54倍。李录最著名的投资案例是比亚迪，根据网络信息，他在2002年公司尚未造车时就已经建仓。

He's investing in individual companies. There are plenty of well known companies in China that have been just massive winners, just like how you've seen all these massive winners in The US. Baidu, for example, had a 48% internal rate of return over a ten ish year period, increasing by 54 times. And Li Lu is well known for investing in BYD. And based on scouring around online, it looks like he bought it in 2002 before the company even produced a single car.

当时比亚迪还是电池制造商，2008年才转型电动车生产。这家毫无汽车行业经验的企业，最终打造出中国最畅销的单款车型，与那些拥有政府背景且资金雄厚的合资车企同台竞技。2002年李录通过喜马拉雅资本持股比亚迪无需披露，直到2005年持股超过披露门槛。他在2008年金融危机股价暴跌期间大幅增持，建立了可观的头寸。

At the time, the company was a battery manufacturer and it got into producing electric vehicles in 2008. And starting with little to no experience in the auto business, they went on to create the best selling single model vehicle in China while competing with these joint ventures that were working with the government and they had way more capital at their disposal relative to BYD. So back in 2002, there was no reporting requirements for Leilu to report Himalaya's ownership stake in BYD. But then in 2005, he crossed a threshold where he needed to report his holdings in it. And he purchased a substantial amount of his stake around the 2008 when the share price collapsed during the great financial crisis.

2002年时，他们持有约5500万股，估值大约在15亿美元左右。从李录买入的股价来看，该股已实现显著增值。伯克希尔哈撒韦在2008年也进行了投资，在金融危机期间以2.3亿美元购入股票，后于2022年减持。伯克希尔这笔投资的回报已达原始投资的25倍左右。

And then in 2002, they owned around 55,000,000 shares, which looked to be valued in the ballpark of $1,500,000,000 And from the prices Leeloo was buying in the stock, it's just seen substantial share price appreciation. Berkshire Hathaway also purchased a stake back in 2008. They bought $230,000,000 shares during the great financial crisis. Then they trimmed their investment back in 2022. Berkshire is up around 25 times on their original investment.

比亚迪股价自李录2002年首次投资以来已上涨约50倍。但具体数字仅供参考，因为我们并不清楚他2002年的确切买入价。莫尼什曾提到伯克希尔以每股约8港元的价格买入，而录制时股价约为211港元。许多投资者担忧中国不同的政治体制，但李录在《价值投资在中国的前景》一文中指出，他认为中国正处于现代化进程中，正在发展一个持续增长的经济体。

BYD shares are up around 50 times since Leeloo's initial investment in 2002. But don't quote me on that because we don't necessarily know the exact price he purchased at back in 2002. Monish had mentioned that Berkshire bought at around 8 Hong Kong dollars per share, and now it's around $2.11 Hong Kong dollars per share at the time of recording. But many investors are concerned about the different political system that China has. He outlines in a piece titled The Prospect of Value Investing in China, that he believes that China is in the works of modernization and it's developing an economy that will continue to grow.

他还认为西方存在误解，认为中国会因政治或文化原因偏离自由市场经济。他观察到中国市场存在大量脱节现象，因为主要投资者群体是散户。提及莫尼什时，我的搭档威廉·格林曾询问他如何看待查理·芒格对李录的评价。莫尼什谈到查理认为投资者需要能与之交流的同侪，因此查理每月会与李录和莫尼什共进午餐。

He also believes that there's a misunderstanding in the West that China will move away from a free market economy for political or cultural reasons. And he sees a lot of disconnect and dislocations in the Chinese market because a substantial portion of who's investing and who's buying and selling is retail investors. Since I mentioned Monish, my co host William Green had asked Monish Pabrai what he thought Charlie Munger saw in Li Lu. And Monish talked about how Charlie believed that as an investor, you had to have someone close to you that you could talk to as an investment peer. So Charlie would have lunch once a month with Lee Lou and Monish Pabri.

某次午餐会上，李录向莫尼什推荐了名为爱茉莉太平洋的公司。莫尼什查阅报告时发现全是韩文内容，便放弃了投资。后来他持续关注该股，结果股价如火箭般飙升——据莫尼什参与的播客所述，涨幅约达80倍。

At one of those lunches, Lee Lou suggested to Monish Pabri that he looked into a company called Amor Pacific as an investment. And this is a company Monish, he looked at the reports and he saw that everything was written in Korean. He just passed on the company. And then he just kept an eye on the stock and it just took off like a rocket. It went up something like 80 times according to that podcast Monish was on.

我认识一位与莫尼什密切合作的分析师。据她透露，李录职业生涯有两大成功投资：比亚迪和茅台（MOUTAI）。这也是莫尼什在与威廉的访谈中提到的案例。

I'm connected with someone who works closely with Monish. She's an analyst for him. And he had mentioned to me that Li Lu really had two big winners over his career. Was BYD and Moutai, M O U T A I. And this is another one that Modis mentioned in that interview with William.

在讨论中国时，李录不仅展现出极强的理性思维，还保持着乐观态度。他曾与布鲁斯·格林沃尔德探讨：当自由市场机制与现代科技相结合时，就会形成他称之为'范式转换'的现代经济体系——这种体系自工业革命以来持续推动经济增长。但同时也需要允许这种经济魔力发挥作用的政治环境。李录多年来认为这些经济力量将推动中国经济增长，这一判断基本正确，他预计这种趋势将长期持续。

And in talking about China, Li Liu not only comes across as someone who is extremely rational, but he's also fairly optimistic. He discussed with Bruce Greenwald about how when you combined a free market enterprise or a way of organizing economic affairs combined with the invention of modern science and modern technology, you created this modern economy that he referred to as a paradigm shift because it creates this continued and sustained economic growth ever since the industrial revolution. But what you also need is political environment that can allow that magical economic force to take place. So Li Lu for many years has said that these economic forces will lead to the growth of the Chinese economy, which he's been largely right on. And he sees that continuing over the long run.

好了，关于李录的内容就到这里。由于他重仓持有Alphabet，我也想简单谈谈这家公司——相信不少听众也对此感兴趣或已投资。我个人并未持有该公司，我的搭档斯蒂格·布罗德森邀请了TIP精英社区成员来做相关分享。

All right. So that pretty much wraps up what I wanted to cover related to Li Lu. Since one of Li Lu's top holdings is Alphabet, I also wanted to touch a little bit on this company, which I'm sure a number of our listeners are also interested in or invested in. I personally do not own this company. Stig Brodersen, my cohost invited a member of our TIP Mastermind community to do a presentation on this company.

我关注了这些信息，因为它们确实有助于更好地理解这家公司当前的状况及其在AI、聊天机器人、GBT等技术带来的竞争威胁中所处的位置。李录在2022年第二季度和第四季度都增持了Alphabet的股票。当时股价在每股90至120美元之间，而2024年5月股价已涨至每股173美元左右。观察李录的投资组合和他对Alphabet的持仓，可以明显看出他和巴菲特一样，现在的投资策略与早年已大不相同。

So I tuned into that as it was really helpful in getting a better understanding of the company and where it's at today and where it sits with the competitive threats we've seen through AI, chat, GBT and such. Li Lu added to his Alphabet stake in Q2 twenty twenty two and Q4, twenty twenty two as well. And at that time, shares were trading around $90 to $120 per share. And here in May 2024 shares trade around $173 per share. And I should also say that just looking at Li portfolio and seeing his position in Alphabet, you can quickly tell that like Buffet, he's had to play a much different game than he did in the earlier days.

对李录而言，筛选微型股或寻找无人问津的'雪茄烟蒂'投资机会的日子已经过去。他现在已进入大联盟，至少在其喜马拉雅资本的投资组合中关注的是规模大得多的公司。2023年，Alphabet近三分之二的收入来自搜索业务，而来自YouTube和云业务的收入占比正在提升。此外他们还有'其他赌注'业务板块，虽然收入占比很小，但也值得在此一提。

Gone are the days for Lulu of sifting through microcaps or finding these cigar butts that nobody's ever heard of. He's now in the big leagues, looking at these much bigger companies, at least in the Himalayan capital portfolio. In 2023, close to two thirds of Alphabet's revenue came from their search business. And then an increasing part of their revenue is coming from YouTube and their cloud business. And then they also have their other bet segment, which is also fairly minuscule in terms of revenue, but worth mentioning here.

搜索业务对他们而言是个巨大的板块，目前仍在增长。这主要得益于搜索结果数量的持续增加，进而带来更多广告展示，谷歌再通过点击量实现广告变现。2019年付费点击量为2400亿次，到2023年已增至4190亿次。

When you look at the search business, this is just a massive segment for them and it's still growing. And this is primarily driven by an increasing number of search results. And then this leads to an increasing number of ads delivered, which are then monetized by Google based on the number of clicks. So in 2019, the number of paid clicks was two forty billion. And in 2023, the number of paid clicks was four nineteen billion.

显然这仍是项增长中的业务，当然并不意味着增长会无限持续。AI和机器学习技术也带来了一些助力，帮助提高广告点击率。2019年点击率为4.8%，到2023年已提升至5.9%，这个趋势对他们很有利。

So clearly this is still a growing business, which of course doesn't mean that the growth will continue indefinitely. There's also a little bit of a tailwind with AI and the machine learning, figuring out how to increase the click through rates on their ads. So the click through rate in 2019 was 4.8%. And then in 2023, it was 5.9%. So that is also a trend that is working in their favor.

对于那些认为谷歌搜索已死或正在衰亡的人，我想指出2023年谷歌搜索的查询量达到7.1万亿次，这是个难以想象的数字。Alphabet的投资资本回报率也很出色，2019年为21%，2023年升至27%。目前来看这是资本效率极高、现金流极强的业务。

And for those of you who might think that Google search is dead or is dying, I'll just mention that in 2023, the number of search queries that were run on Google search was 7,100,000,000,000, pretty much an incomprehensibly high number. Alphabet's return on invested capital is also really good. In 2019, it was 21%, 2023, it's up to 27. So very capital efficient business, at least for the time being. They're very cash generative.

他们最近宣布了分红政策。过去三年每年回购近3%的股份，近期又批准了700亿美元的新股票回购计划。Alphabet面临的核心问题是风险——谷歌搜索的霸主地位还能维持多久？人们担心OpenAI等公司会颠覆搜索业务，但要改变用户习惯其实非常困难。

They recently announced a dividend. And over the last three years, they've bought back almost 3% of shares per year. Then they also recently authorized a new share repurchase program of $70,000,000,000 Now, the big question with Alphabet is the risk and how long Google search will be able to be the behemoth that it is. There's concerns on whether OpenAI or some other company is going to disrupt the search business. I think that it's going to be pretty difficult to get consumers to change their behavior.

谷歌作为众多平台的默认搜索引擎也是个优势。比如iPhone上的Safari浏览器。某种程度上，谷歌的护城河在于能支付300亿美元让苹果将其设为默认选项——这是AI初创公司根本无法企及的资金规模。谷歌的AI部门Gemini正致力于自主研发，以应对AI领域的竞争态势。

I think it also helps that Google is the default option on so many platforms. You look at Safari, for example, on the iPhone. So to some extent, Google's moat lies in having the ability to pay Apple $30,000,000,000 to make them the default option. And this is capital that an AI startup simply isn't going to have. Google's AI segment, which is referred to as Gemini, this is their segment where they're trying to create their own developments and sort of counter what's happening in the AI space.

Alphabet公司目前也正处于资本支出快速增长的阶段。他们正在建设数据中心，这部分资本支出正在增加。目前尚不清楚这些投资能带来多少回报，这还有待观察。对于许多大型科技公司而言，人工智能投资和数据中心的资本密集度正变得越来越高。

So Alphabet is also going through a period where their capital expenditures are increasing at a pretty rapid clip. They're building out data centers and that CapEx spend is increasing. It's unclear how well those returns are going to be. That's yet to be seen. AI investments and data centers are proving to be pretty capital intensive for many of these big tech companies.

尽管我们倾向于认为资本支出是为了增长而进行的再投资，但我认为其中很大一部分只是为了维持当前的竞争地位，而这似乎正变得越来越昂贵。从估值角度来看，搜索业务创造了600-700亿美元的利润，YouTube和云业务各创造了约100-120亿美元的利润。搜索业务显然是最大的业务，也是增长最慢的业务。我们可以给这部分业务一个保守的20倍估值倍数。

As much as we want to think that CapEx is reinvesting for growth, I think a lot of it is simply maintaining their current competitive position, which seems to be becoming more and more expensive over time. Zooming out and looking at the valuation, you have the search business that's producing 60 to $70,000,000,000 in profits. Then you have YouTube and the cloud business, each producing around 10 to $12,000,000,000 in profits. The search business is obviously their biggest business and also their slowest growing business. We can apply a conservative multiple of 20 to this segment.

如果我们给YouTube和云业务25倍估值倍数，这些业务的增长速度稍快。据此计算，Alphabet的内在价值大约在1.8-1.9万亿美元之间。而录制时其市值略低于2.2万亿美元，这意味着基于这些假设，股价略高于公允价值。因此我个人不认为以当前价格买入的投资者能获得超额回报，但我仍认为这是一家非常优质的企业。ChatGPT发布时引发的股价回调被严重夸大了。

Then if we assume a multiple of 25 to YouTube and the cloud, those businesses are growing a bit faster. This gives Alphabet intrinsic value in the ballpark of 1.8 to 1,900,000,000,000. And at the time of recording, we're sitting just under 2,200,000,000,000.0, which would imply that the stock is trading just above fair value based on these assumptions. So I personally wouldn't expect outsized returns for investors who purchase around this price, but I also believe that this is just a really high quality business. The pullback that happened when ChatGPT was released was far overblown.

我实际上在那次回调期间买入了一些股票，后来在2023年卖出，因为我发现了在5-10年时间框架内风险回报比更好的标的。观众可能也会对我卖出Alphabet的思考过程感兴趣。我持有大约六个月时间。通常卖出股票有三个原因：第一是企业不再优质。

I actually purchased some shares during that drawdown, which I then sold later in 2023 after I found names that I thought offered a much better risk reward over a five or ten year timeframe. I also thought the audience might be interested in my thought process around selling Alphabet. I held it for probably six months or so. Generally, there are three reasons to sell a company. The first is that the business is no longer a great business.

在我看来，Alphabet显然不属于这种情况。第二个卖出理由是股价变得极度高估，Alphabet同样不符合。第三个理由是找到更好的投资机会。所以如果你要卖出股票，最好有充分的理由。

And in my opinion, this definitely isn't the case with Alphabet. The second reason for selling is that a stock becomes extremely overpriced. Again, it's not the case with Alphabet. And the third reason is you find a better opportunity. So if you sell a stock, you better have a good reason for doing so.

当我展望5-10年的投资周期时，我认为市场上存在更好的机会。以我持有的Dino Polska为例，这家波兰食品零售商的投入资本回报率达到20%。

And when I looked out over a five or ten year time period, I thought I saw some better opportunities in the market. For example, let's use one of my holdings, Dino Polska, as an example, because I think it's so simple to understand. Kyle Grieve and I covered this on the show in late twenty twenty three. So Dino Polska is a grocer in Poland. Without going too much into the company, they have a return on invested capital of 20%.

他们将全部现金流都进行了再投资。虽然我认为Alphabet未来五年盈利增速可能在10-14%左右，但Dino Polska的盈利增速预计能达到20%甚至更高。因此我选择卖出优质企业Alphabet来换取更好的机会。这两家公司当时的估值倍数相近，当然投资Dino Polska的风险特征不同——它不是资本无限的大型巨头，但也意味着更大的增长潜力。

They've reinvest all of their cash flows. So while I believe that Alphabet is going to grow earnings at say the low teens over the next five years, say 10 to 14%, I think Dino Polska is going to be able to grow earnings at around 20%, potentially more. And then I was able to sell a great company in Alphabet for an even better opportunity. These were both companies that were at similar valuation multiples. So of course I'm taking on a different risk profile investing in Dino Polska in that it isn't a giant mega cap with unlimited capital, but it also means that there's more potential upside in terms of growth.

这些公司都存在一定的取舍关系。作为投资生涯前半段的投资者，我倾向于寻找这些高增长机会，并遵循一个投资原则：长期来看，股票价格最终会跟随每股自由现金流的增长。鉴于Alphabet产生如此庞大的现金流，我认为其股票回购和股息水平意味着，相对于那些拥有更多再投资机会的公司，其未来增长将相对有限。对我来说最理想的情况是，企业能将100%的收益重新投入这个复利机器，从而产生长期增长——这正是Dino Polska吸引我的原因。因此这并非对Alphabet或Dino Polska的买卖建议。

So there's a little bit of a give and take in each of these companies. As someone who's in the first half of their investing journey, I tend to look for these higher growth opportunities and fall back on the investing principle that stocks over the long run tend to follow the growth in the free cash flow per share. And with Alphabet just generating so much cash, I think that their level of share buybacks and dividends means that their growth going forward is going to be somewhat limited relative to some other companies that have a lot more reinvestment opportunities. The ideal situation for me is that a company can reinvest 100% of their earnings back into that compounding machine and then generate that long term growth, which is why Dino Polska is quite appealing to me. So this is not a buy or sell recommendation for Alphabet or Dino Polska.

这只是我的思考方式。时间会证明我购买这家99.99%美国人闻所未闻的公司究竟是明智还是愚蠢。或许我的增长假设完全错误，也许Alphabet会因AI崛起迎来新的增长点，而Dino Polska的增长会从20%降至12%？谁知道呢？

It's just the way I sort of think about it. Time will tell whether I look smart or look totally silly in buying a company that 99.99% of people have never heard of, here in The US at least. Maybe it's the case that my growth assumptions are just simply wrong. Maybe Alphabet has a new leg of growth with the rise of AI and it's going be Dino Polska that grows at 12% instead of 20%. Who knows?

投资本质上是概率游戏，我一直在努力让概率向有利方向倾斜。好了，这就是今天想分享的全部内容。希望你们喜欢这期关于李录的节目，我本人非常享受这次研究过程。

Investing is really a game of probabilities and I'm continually working to stack those probabilities in my favor. All right. So that's all I wanted to touch on today. I really hope you enjoyed this episode on Li Lu. I enjoyed doing all this research on this one.

筹备这期节目已有相当长时间，很高兴最终能呈现给大家。如果喜欢本期内容，请考虑在您常用的社交媒体平台分享，可以在推特或领英上标记我交流看法。非常感谢收听，我们下周再见。

I've been wanting to do this episode for quite some time now, and I'm glad that we are able to put this together. If you enjoyed this episode, please consider sharing it on your favorite social media platform. You can tag me on Twitter or LinkedIn to let me know your thoughts. Thanks so much for tuning in, and I hope to see you again next week.

感谢收听TIP节目。请确保在您常用的播客平台关注《亿万富豪研究》，随时获取最新内容。访问investorspodcast.com可查看节目备注、文字稿及课程。本节目仅供娱乐，决策前请咨询专业人士。

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