TIP657：摩根·豪塞尔与克莱·芬克共谈积累财富之道

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大家好，欢迎来到投资者播客。我是主持人克莱·芬克。在本期节目中，我将分享从《纽约时报》畅销书作家摩根·豪塞尔身上学到的最重要经验。摩根已多次做客我们的节目，他的两本书《金钱心理学》和《一如既往》绝对值得重温。

Hey, everybody. Welcome to the investors podcast. I'm your host, Clay Finck. On today's episode, I'll be sharing the biggest lessons I've learned from the New York Times bestselling author, Morgan Housel. Morgan has been on our show a couple of times now and his two books, The Psychology of Money and Same as Ever are certainly worth revisiting.

我制作这期节目是为了分享阅读这些书籍时发现最具影响力的观点。本期将探讨：为什么最好的故事会胜出？为什么最大的风险总是出人意料？悲观主义的诱惑与乐观主义的回报；明确目标与知足常乐的重要性；耐心与长期投资视野的价值；以及人类为何总会制造市场周期。我非常享受制作这期节目的过程，相信您也会喜欢。那么话不多说，请收听我从摩根·豪塞尔先生身上学到的宝贵经验。

I put this episode together to share some of the lessons I found to be most impactful from reading these books. During this episode, I'll explore why the best story wins, why the biggest risk is the one nobody sees coming, the seduction of pessimism and why it pays to be an optimist, the importance of knowing what your goals are and what is enough for you, the importance of patience and having a long investment time horizon, and why humans tend to create market cycles. I really enjoyed putting this episode together, and I think you'll enjoy it as well. So without further ado, I give you today's episode sharing the biggest lessons I've learned from mister Morgan Housel.

庆祝十周年暨超1.5亿次下载！您正在收听投资者播客网络。自2014年起，我们研究金融市场，阅读对白手起家亿万富翁影响最深的著作。为您提供前瞻资讯，助您未雨绸缪。现在有请主持人克莱·芬克。

Celebrating ten years and more than 150,000,000 downloads. You are listening to the Investors Podcast Network. Since 2014, we studied the financial markets and read the books that influence self made billionaires the most. We keep you informed and prepared for the unexpected. Now for your host, Clay Finck.

我决定将本期内容分为从摩根·豪塞尔（主要基于其著作《金钱心理学》和《一如既往》）学到的六大经验。摩根内容的可贵之处在于：在这个充斥着时效信息（其中绝大多数实属噪音）的世界里，他的见解往往历久弥新。无论你在2024年还是2054年阅读，其价值都不会减损——这也呼应了他第二本书名《一如既往》的深意。首先要分享的第一条经验是：最好的故事终将胜出。摩根在书中写道：胜出的永远是最动人的叙事。

I decided to break this episode up into six of the best lessons I've learned from Morgan Housel, primarily from his two books, The Psychology of Money and Same as Ever. What I really love about Morgan's content is that in a world full of timely information, which the vast majority of is frankly noise, Morgan's content tends to be timeless. Whether you've read his books in 2024 or 2054, I think much of what he says will be quite valuable, which of course ties into the name of his second book, Same As Ever. So the first lesson I wanted to start with is that the best story wins. In his book, Same As Ever, Morgan writes, the best story wins.

不是最棒的创意、最正确的观点或最理性的方案。只要能讲出引人入胜、让人频频点头的故事，就能获得回报。摩根在采访中向我解释：人们普遍健忘。你可以用大量数据论证某只股票被低估，但第二天对方就会忘得一干二净。他在节目中指出：统计数据本质上无法改变人们的想法。

Not the best idea or the right idea or the most rational idea. Just whoever tells a story that catches people's attention and gets them to nod their heads is the one who tends to be rewarded. And Morgan explained to me in my interview with him that people generally have short memories. You could give someone the best argument for why a stock is cheap based on all these numbers and all these statistics, and the next day, they're just gonna totally forget about it. Morgan stated on the show, by and large, statistics and numbers do not change people's minds.

但故事可以。因为数据枯燥难记，而故事生动鲜活。这源于人类本质上是情感动物——除非是像我这样的数学痴，数字通常无法激发情感共鸣。人们总是被故事吸引，正是因为它们能触动心弦。

Stories do. That's because statistics and numbers frankly aren't memorable, but stories are. I think this ties into the fact that we as humans are just very emotional creatures. Numbers generally aren't going to trigger your emotions unless you're a total math nerd like myself. People just cling to stories because they trigger that emotion.

拥有最佳答案的人不会领先，但拥有最佳故事的人会。商界最成功的人往往也是最会讲故事的人。对我来说，脑海中浮现的人物有史蒂夫·乔布斯、埃隆·马斯克、霍华德·舒尔茨、杰夫·贝索斯和沃伦·巴菲特。当然也存在例外。当我们作为投资者审视这些公司时，阿斯沃斯·达摩达兰在节目中告诉我们，需要围绕公司未来形态构建故事框架。

The person with the best answer doesn't get ahead, but the person with the best story does. The most successful people in business are oftentimes some of the best storytellers. So for me, the people that come to mind are people like Steve Jobs, Elon Musk, Howard Schultz, Jeff Bezos, and Warren Buffett. But certainly there are also exceptions as well. When we're looking at some of these companies as investors, Aswath Damodaran shared with us on the show that we need to be able to craft a story around what the company is going to look like in the future.

摩根曾指出，每家公司的价值都源于当下数字乘以关于未来的故事。以特斯拉为例，你可以查看当年盈利数据，再乘以反映特斯拉未来前景的市盈率倍数——至少是市场预期中的光明前景。科技泡沫时期，人们坚信互联网将颠覆一切的故事。而他们对当时的实际盈利几乎毫不重视。当人们对互联网的认知及相关叙事发生转变后，纳斯达克指数在两年半内暴跌了83%。

Morgan stated that every single company's value is derived from a number from today, multiplied by a story about tomorrow. For Tesla, you might look at the current year's earnings and then multiply that by a PE multiple that tells a story about how rosy the future is going to be for Tesla, at least in the market's expectations. During the tech bubble, people clung to the story that the internet was going to change everything. And they put little to no emphasis on the current earnings from that time. Once people's view of the internet and the story that was being told in relation to the internet changed, we then saw the NASDAQ fall by 83% over two and a half years.

再看亚马逊这类公司，其基本面持续改善，但股价仍暴跌91%。'最佳故事胜出'的理念不仅适用于投资领域。若你想推动职业发展、业务拓展或人际关系——任何涉及信息交换的场合——或许你只需要学会讲更好的故事。人们偏爱故事的另一个原因是：在忙碌的生活中，我们不愿费力筛选海量信息数据来获取正确答案。优秀的叙事者能将复杂话题转化为简单有趣的内容。

And then you look at companies like Amazon, their fundamentals continued to improve, but that didn't stop their stock from falling by 91%. And this idea of best story wins doesn't just have to apply to investing. If you wanna take the next step in your career, next step in your business, the next step in your relationships, anything where information is exchanged, maybe you just need to start telling better stories. Another reason that people like stories is that most of us just live busy lives and we don't want to have to sift through all this information and all this data to try and get the right answer. Gray storytellers can take a complex topic and turn it into something that's simple, entertaining, and interesting.

豪塞尔写道：'当话题复杂时，故事如同杠杆。'他在《金钱心理学》第18章'当你相信一切时'中探讨了故事的力量。书中假设外星人登陆地球监测经济：这个外星人观察了2007年初和2009年初的纽约经济状况。两个年份里，它看到同样多的派对人群、相似的街头匆忙人潮、数量相当的办公楼，以及城市周边规模相近的工厂仓库。

Housel writes, when a topic is complex, stories are like leverage. Housel also discusses stories in chapter 18 of the psychology of money titled When You Believe Anything. He explains the hypothetical example of an alien landing on earth with the job of keeping tabs on our economy. This alien looked at the economy in New York City at the start of 2007 and at the start of 2009. Both years, he sees plenty of partygoers, roughly the same number of people hustling through the city, roughly the same number of office buildings, and a similar number of factories and warehouses surrounding the city.

从经济层面看，2007到2009年其实变化不大。技术确有进步，但绝非天壤之别。这个外星人走访其他城市和国家后也发现相似趋势——经济基本面变动甚微。它最终得出结论：2009年经济状况与2007年相当，甚至可能更好。

So when looking at the economy, not really a lot changed from 2007 to 2009. Technology certainly improved, but it's not a night and day difference by any stretch of the imagination. Then this alien went to other cities and other countries and found a very similar trend. Not a lot changed in the economy. He comes to the conclusion that the economy is in the same shape, maybe even better in 2009 than it was in 2007.

令这个假想外星人震惊的是：2009年美国家庭财富比2007年缩水了16万亿美元，股市市值较两年前腰斩。豪塞尔解释道，真正改变的是我们关于经济的叙事。他写道：'2007年我们讲述着房价稳定、银行家审慎、金融市场准确定价风险的故事。到2009年，我们不再相信这个故事。'

What this hypothetical alien is surprised to find is that US households were $16,000,000,000,000 poorer in 2009 than they were in 2007. And the stock market is worth half of what it was two years before. Housel explains that what changed was the stories that we told ourselves about the economy. He writes in 2007, we told a story about the stability of housing prices, the prudence of bankers, and the ability of financial markets to accurately price risk. By 2009, we stopped believing that story.

这才是唯一的变化，却产生了天壤之别。这表明故事和叙事是经济中最强大的力量之一，因为它们是推动经济实体运转的燃料。我也认为故事会给投资者带来虚假的确定感——某人讲着动听故事且看似专业，并不代表他们真正全面理解世界。金融世界尤其充满不确定性与未知因素。

That's the only thing that changed, but it made all the difference in the world. It goes to show that stories and narratives are one of the most powerful forces in the economy because it's the fuel that lets the tangible parts of the economy work. I also think that stories can give us a false sense of certainty as investors. Just because somebody has a great story and they sound like they know what they're talking about, it doesn't mean they really have a complete view and understanding of the world. The financial world especially is full of uncertainty and full of unknowns.

豪塞尔在《金钱心理学》中写道：'大多数人在面对不理解的事物时，往往意识不到自己的无知，因为他们总能基于自身独特的视角和有限的人生经验，编造出看似合理的解释。我们都渴望在这个复杂的世界中找到确定性，于是用故事来填补认知盲区。'虽然故事能带来慰藉和确定感，但过度依赖错误的故事可能让我们财务崩溃——比如导致投资组合过度集中。

Housel writes here in the Psychology of Money, Most people when confronted with something they don't understand, do not realize they don't understand it because they're able to come up with an explanation that makes sense based on their own unique perspective and experiences in the world, however limited those experiences are. We all want the complicated world we live in to make sense. So we tell ourselves stories to fill in the gaps of what are effectively blind spots, end quote. Although stories may give us comfort and a sense of certainty, when taken too far, the wrong stories can absolutely crush us financially. They can lead us to over concentrating our portfolios.

这些故事会诱使我们使用杠杆，或让我们在自认为胜算很大时加倍下注错误选择。人类天生渴望掌控感，而故事恰好能满足这种心理。但作为投资者，我们必须承认金融市场有太多不可控因素。要么接受这个事实，要么选择视而不见并承受潜在恶果。

They can influence us to use leverage. They can fool us into doubling down on bad bets when we feel that the odds are in our favor. We as humans have this great desire to want to feel like we're in control and stories help give us that sense of control. But as investors, we have to accept that there's so much in the investing world that is simply outside of our control. You can either accept that or turn the blind eye and potentially get burned by it.

我认为人们总是高估已知事物的分量，低估未知事物的影响力。我们过分强调自身技能，却低估运气的作用。我常思考这些现象背后的原因——为何人类如此依赖故事？其中一个原因是：当我们听故事时，大脑会与讲述者产生同步。

I think we all put a lot of weight on the things we do know and underestimate the effect or the potential impact of the things we don't know. We overweight our skills and our prowess and underweight the role of luck. And I like to understand the why behind many of these things. So why is it that humans cling so much to stories? One of the reasons is that when we listen to a story, our brain synchronizes with that of the storyteller.

这使得我们仿佛亲历故事场景。故事还能激活大脑奖赏系统，释放多巴胺带来愉悦感，同时增强记忆力和注意力，使其比其他沟通方式更令人难忘。此外，故事会促进催产素分泌，这种激素能建立信任与共情。因此第一条启示是：最好的故事胜出。

So we experience the story as if we're living in it ourselves. And stories activate the reward system in our brain, releasing dopamine and making us feel good. Dopamine also enhances our memory and attention, making stories more memorable than other methods of communication. Stories can also trigger the release of oxytocin, which is a hormone that promotes trust and empathy. So lesson number one here is that the best story wins.

我要分享的第二条启示是：风险往往藏在视线之外。这个概念与第一章'命悬一线'的主题相呼应。摩根写道：'历史给我们的重要教训，就是意识到世界多么脆弱。历史上某些最重大转折，往往源于某个随机、不可预见、轻率的相遇或决定，最终引发奇迹或灾难。'该章节讲述了摩根在大雪后与两位好友滑雪时遭遇雪崩的往事。

Lesson number two I'd like to share is that risk is what you don't see. I think this concept ties in well with chapter one and same as ever titled Hanging by a Thread. Morgan writes, A big lesson from history is realizing how much of the world hangs by a thread. Some of the biggest and most consequential changes in history happened because of a random, unforeseeable, thoughtless encounter or decision that led to magic or mayhem, end quote. In that chapter, Morgan tells the story of how he lost two of his best friends while snow skiing in the mountains and then an avalanche hit.

摩根与好友布伦丹、布莱恩在太浩湖新雪后滑出安全区。首滑结束后，两位好友想继续滑行，摩根却鬼使神差地不想再滑——这个毫无逻辑的决定最终救了他的命，因为雪崩瞬间掩埋了他的朋友们。

Morgan and his two friends, Brendan and Brian, they had skied out of bounds after Lake Tahoe had seen some fresh snow. And after they skied their first run, Brendan and Brian wanted to go again. But for whatever reason, Morgan just didn't want to go for another run. Was just purely coincidence. This decision really had no logical explanation for Morgan, but it's a decision that probably saved his life as an avalanche sweeps through burying his friends in the snow.

那天他们根本没想到会有雪崩。作为从小滑雪的青少年，他们无数次滑出安全区都安然无恙。摩根写道：'世界的命运往往系于一线。研究历史的讽刺在于，我们清楚知道结局，却永远找不到故事真正的起点。'下面这个例子就是明证。

The possibility of an avalanche likely wasn't something that crossed any of their minds that day. They had skied out of bounds countless times as they'd been skiing, you know, most of their lives at this point in their teenage years and were super comfortable with skiing. Morgan writes here, so much of the world hangs by a thread. An irony of studying history is that we often know exactly how a story ends, but we have no idea where it began. So here's an example.

2008年金融危机的起因是什么？你必须先了解抵押贷款市场。什么塑造了抵押贷款市场？你必须先理解此前长达三十年的利率下降趋势。又是什么导致了利率下降？

What caused the two thousand and eight financial crisis? Well, you have to understand the mortgage market. What shaped the mortgage market? Well, you have to understand the thirty year decline in interest rates that preceded it. What caused falling interest rates?

你必须追溯到1970年代的通货膨胀，如此无限追溯下去。每件时事无论大小，背后都有无数促成因素，其中许多完全无法预测。事件以难以捉摸的方式相互叠加，这解释了为何预测复杂系统如此困难。例如，人们可能认为油价上涨会导致开车减少。

Well, you have to understand the inflation of the 1970s and so on forever. Every current event, either big or small has an infinite number of factors that led to it. Many of which are totally unpredictable. Events compound in unfathomable ways, which helps explain why forecasting complex systems is so hard. For example, one might think that higher gas prices would cause people to drive less.

但如果油价上涨促使更多人购买混合动力或电动汽车，反而可能导致行驶里程增加？又或者高油价刺激石油生产繁荣，结果阴差阳错导致价格下跌？摩根在此写道：'过往关联的荒谬性应该让你对预测未来保持谦卑。'这是个发人深省的提醒——多数结果在事后看来都显而易见，因为我们基于既成事实套用自洽的逻辑。一旦认识到世界的随机性与不可预测性，你就能觉察那些隐形的风险。

But what if higher gas prices leads more people to buy hybrid or electric vehicles, which may actually lead to people driving more. Or what if high gas prices leads to a boom in oil production, which coincidentally leads to low prices? Morgan writes here, The absurdity of past connections should humble your confidence in predicting future ones. And it's a humbling reminder that most outcomes look obvious with the benefit of hindsight because we apply this basic logic that makes sense to us based on what actually happened. Once we can appreciate how random and how unpredictable our world can be, you can appreciate the risks that we can't see.

他写道：'最大的风险永远是无人预见之事。因为若无人预见，就无人准备；若无人准备，其破坏力将在到来时被放大。'我特别喜欢他引用的卡尔·理查兹的话：'风险就是你以为考虑周全后剩下的那部分。'

He writes, the biggest risk is always what no one sees coming. Because if no one sees it coming, no one's prepared for it. And if no one's prepared for it, its damage will be amplified when it arrives, end quote. And I love the quote he shares here also from Carl Richards. Risk is what's left over after you've thought of everything.

观察真正改变世界的重大事件——摩根列举了新冠疫情、911事件、珍珠港事件、大萧条——它们的共同点不在于规模，而在于几乎出乎所有人意料。回顾1929年10月，股市正处于当时最疯狂的泡沫顶峰。经济学家欧文·费雪曾对听众断言'股价已达到看似永久的高原平台'。如今我们知道股市泡沫不可持续而觉得可笑，但史料显示当时确实无人预见到大萧条。

And if we look at the big events that have really changed the world, you know, Morgan shares COVID, nineeleven, Pearl Harbor, the great depression, the common trait among them was not that they were big, but that they were surprises that practically nobody expected. If we go back to October 1929, the stock market hit the peak of the craziest stock market bubble up until that point. And the economist Irving Fisher famously told an audience that stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau. We can laugh at comments like this from Fisher today knowing that stock market bubbles aren't sustainable. But when we look back at what other people were saying, it turns out that nobody forecasted the great depression at that time.

虽有人觉得市场估值过高，但没人预料到持续十年的萧条和89%的股市暴跌。摩根指出：'最重要的新闻、最大的风险、最具影响力的事件，永远在你视线之外。'以《经济学人》年度预测为例：2020年1月未提新冠疫情，2022年1月未涉及俄乌战争。

Some people believe that the market was overvalued, but no one expected a decade long depression with the market falling by 89 percent. Morgan writes, The biggest news, the biggest risks, the most consequential events are always what you don't see coming. So let's look at The Economist, which publishes a forecast each year for the year that lies ahead. In January 2020, COVID-nineteen wasn't even mentioned. In January 2022, Russia's invasion of Ukraine wasn't covered.

这再次谦卑地提醒我们预测未来何其困难。书中我最喜欢的金句是：'未来十年最大的风险与最重要的新闻，将是今日无人谈及之事。无论你何时读到本书，这个真理永不过时。'我认为这正是我们生活中需要设置安全边际的关键原因。

Again, it's a humble reminder of just how difficult it can be to predict the future. It brings me to one of my favorite quotes from his book here. The biggest risk in the most important news story of the next ten years will be something nobody is talking about today. No matter what year you're reading this book, that truth will remain end quote. And I believe this is a critical reason as to why we should implement a margin of safety into our lives.

为可能发生的坏事建立缓冲，因为它们可能降临到任何人身上。对我而言，这意味着储蓄比我认为必要的稍多一些，持有比舒适度略高的现金，确保不为投资支付过高代价，分散资产配置，避免过度负债，购买汽车和房屋保险以防范不可预见事件，提升自身技能以确保总有收入来源——但也要明白我们能防范此类风险的措施终归有限。纳西姆·塔勒布说过：投资于准备，而非预测。我们无法预知未来，但可以尝试为任何可能发生的情况做好准备。

Build a cushion for detrimental things to happen to you because they can happen to any of us. For me, this means saving a little bit more than what I deem to be necessary. Having a little more cash than what feels comfortable, ensuring I'm not paying too high of a price for my investments, diversifying my assets, don't have excess levels of debt, have car and home insurance to protect against the unforeseeable, build up my own skill sets to help ensure I'll always have a source of income coming from somewhere, but know that there's only so much we can do to protect ourselves against such risks. Naseem Taleb stated, Invest in preparedness, not in prediction. We don't know what's going to happen, but we can try and prepare for whatever does end up happening.

如果我假设自己从18岁到80岁都将是一名投资者，那么纯粹从常识出发，这期间必然会出现大量无法预料的灾难。因此我们现在可以过度准备。当灾难不可避免地来临时，我们就能处于有利位置，甚至可能抓住机遇。在2020年3月准备充分的人，或许遇到了人生中最难得的投资良机；而准备不足者，可能被迫在最糟糕的时刻平仓，只因遭遇了此前认为绝不可能发生的情况。

If I assume I'm going to be an investor from age 18 to age 80, then it's purely common sense to think that there's going to be a ton of calamities that are going to be impossible to predict. So as a result, we can be over prepared now. When that calamity inevitably does strike, then we can be well positioned and potentially even capitalize on such an opportunity. Someone who was over prepared in March 2020 may have taken advantage of some of the best investment bargains in their lives. While someone who was underprepared may have had their investments liquidated at the worst possible time because they came across something that they would have previously considered to be just impossible.

成功的投资必然包含运气和完全不可控因素。正如纳瓦尔提出的框架：如果我们在1000个平行宇宙中生活，你至少希望在其中900个宇宙里保持富裕。我们不该孤注一掷追求极端幸运的剧本（比如中彩票），而应竭尽全力降低运气成分。摩根在接受我采访时也说过：美好人生的定义，就是最终处于所有可能结果的前50%区间。

Successful investing inevitably contains some element of luck and things totally outside of our control. So Naval has this framework that if we lived out our lives in 1,000 different parallel universes, you wanna be wealthy in at least September of them. You don't wanna shoot for the moon and try and play out the scenario where you just get totally lucky, you win the lottery or whatnot. You wanna minimize the role of luck by all means possible. Morgan also said during my interview with him that the definition of a good life is that you end up in the top half of all the potential outcomes.

当然你总能做得更好，但至少已尽全力规避了毁灭性风险。这要求你必须从投资策略中剔除错失恐惧症（FOMO），或至少大幅削弱其影响。用1%-2%仓位押注高风险标的是一回事，但因FOMO全仓押注则截然不同。

You can of course have always done better, but at least you prevented the risk of ruin to the best of your ability. What this also requires you to do is to remove FOMO from your investment approach or at least largely eliminate it. It's one thing to put 1% or 2% of your portfolio into a moonshot play, but it's another thing to go all in because of FOMO.

普雷斯顿，我们稍事休息，听听今日赞助商的消息。

Preston Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors.

普雷斯顿，你是否注意到精明投资者总会对冲尾部风险，却几乎从不讨论金融压制？这个残酷的事实是：无论你如何谨慎构建投资组合，只要资金规则可能一夜突变，你就始终脆弱。问问银行账户被冻结的加拿大卡车司机，汇款被国有银行截流的古巴家庭，或是数十个威权国家中目睹毕生积蓄在恶性通胀中蒸发的公民——这些都不是孤立事件。

Preston Ever notice how smart investors hedge against tail risk, but almost never talk about financial repression? Here's the uncomfortable truth. It doesn't matter how careful you build your portfolio because if the rules around your money can change overnight, you're vulnerable. Just ask the Canadian truckers whose bank accounts were frozen or Cuban families whose remittances were hijacked by state banks or citizens in dozens of authoritarian countries watching their life savings evaporate under hyperinflation. These aren't isolated incidents.

它们属于全球性现象。正因如此，人权基金会推出《金融自由报告》周刊，追踪政府如何将货币武器化来控制民众，以及比特币如何帮助个人抵抗金融压制。如果你关注健全货币、个人主权和财务自由，这份我本人订阅并获益良多的报告不可或缺。免费订阅请访问financialfreedomreport.org。

They're part of a global pattern. That's why the Human Rights Foundation publishes the Financial Freedom Report, a weekly newsletter that tracks how governments weaponize money to control people and how Bitcoin is helping individuals resist financial repression. If you care about sound money, personal sovereignty, and financial freedom, HRF's financial freedom report is essential reading. This is a report that I'm personally subscribed to and learn a ton from. Sign up for free at financialfreedomreport.org.

这里是financialfreedomreport.org。聪明的投资者不仅关注美联储，更放眼全球。

That's financialfreedomreport.org. Smart investors don't just watch the Fed, they watch the world.

作为小企业主，你没有提前下班的奢侈。你的生意24/7占据着你的思绪。因此当你招聘时，需要找到与你同样勤奋的伙伴。这个招聘伙伴就是领英职场。当你下班时，领英开始工作。

As a small business owner, you do not have the luxury of clocking out early. Your business is on your mind 20 four seven. So when you're hiring, you need a partner that works just as hard as you do. That hiring partner is LinkedIn jobs. When you clock out, LinkedIn clocks in.

领英让你轻松免费发布职位，分享到人脉网络，并在一处管理所有优质候选人。领英甚至能帮你撰写职位描述，通过深度候选人洞察快速触达目标人群。你可以免费发布职位，或付费推广获得三倍优质申请者。72%使用领英的中小企业表示它能帮助找到高质量人才，让你对获得最佳申请人充满信心。了解为何我们和250万家中小企业选择领英招聘。

LinkedIn makes it easy to post your job for free, share it with your network and get qualified candidates that you can manage all in one place. LinkedIn can even help you write job descriptions and quickly get your job in front of the right people with deep candidate insights. You can post your job for free or promote it to get three times more qualified applicants. And with LinkedIn, you can feel confident that you're getting the best applicants as 72% of small and medium sized businesses using LinkedIn say it helps them find high quality candidates. Find out why our business and more than 2,500,000 other small businesses use LinkedIn for hiring today.

免费发布职位请访问linkedin.com/studybill。条款与条件适用。面对面交流有更优方案，非凡纸张专业之选。这是一款纸感平板，将纸张触感与数字功能完美融合的电子笔记本。

Post your job for free at linkedin.com/studybill. That's linkedin.com/studybill to post your job for free. Terms and conditions apply. There's a better way to meet face to face, remarkable paper pro move. It's a paper tablet, a digital notebook that combines the familiar feel of paper with the digital powers of a tablet.

从数十种内置模板开始手写笔记，随后将笔迹转为印刷体文字，通过邮件或Slack分享。细想之下，我们随时记录想法的方式各有局限：纸张难以整理易丢失，笔记本电脑笨重不便，手机则容易分散注意力。

Start by taking notes with any of the dozens of built in templates, then turn your handwriting into typed text and share it by email or Slack. Think about it, the ways we capture thoughts on the go, all have their drawbacks. Paper's hard to organize and easy to lose. Laptops are too bulky and uncomfortable. And on our phones, our attention can quickly get hijacked.

非凡纸张专业之选与你其他设备截然不同。它的屏幕观感、触感甚至声音都像真实纸张。能容纳所有笔记文档，单次充电续航两周，却能轻松放入外套口袋。最重要的是，它的使命是帮助你更专注思考——没有应用、社交媒体等干扰，只有你与思绪。

Remarkable Paper Pro Move is nothing like your other devices. It has a display that looks, feels, and even sounds like paper. It can fit all of your notes and documents and lasts up to two weeks on a single charge, but it slips easily into your jacket pocket. And most importantly, Remarkable's mission is about helping you think better. That means no apps, social media, or any other distractions, just you and your thoughts.

你可以免费试用非凡纸张专业之选50天。若不满意，全额退款。访问remarkable.com了解详情，立即获取你的纸感平板。官网：remarkable.com。

You can try the Remarkable Paper Pro Move for fifty days for free. And if it's not what you're looking for, you get your money back. Visit remarkable.com to learn more and get your paper tablet today. That's remarkable.com.

好的，回到节目中来。

All right, back to the show.

许多人后悔多年前没有投资特斯拉，认为如今的埃隆是个天才，错过了绝佳机会。但这些懊悔者很可能不知道，2018年特斯拉距离破产仅剩几周甚至几天时间。完全可以认为埃隆·马斯克极其幸运，因为特斯拉到2024年仍在运营。这就是典型的幸存者偏差。在某个平行宇宙里，可能有另一家科技公司股价涨了百倍，让无数人懊悔没早点买入。

Many people, for example, regret not investing in Tesla years back and thinking that Elon today is a total genius and they missed out on such an amazing opportunity. And these people, they feel like they missed out likely don't know that in 2018, Tesla was weeks, if not days from bankruptcy. One could easily argue that Elon Musk is extremely, extremely lucky just because Tesla is still in operational business in 2024. This is a classic example of survivorship bias. In some sort of parallel universe, there's another tech company that went up by a 100 times that a lot of people would have regretted not buying early on.

而根本不会有人谈论特斯拉这样的公司，因为它们早已破产倒闭。因此我们要押注的投资策略，必须是在一千个平行宇宙里绝大多数情况都能奏效的。既然未来十年的重大新闻是我们无法预见的，这也提醒我们预测有多困难。历史给我们的教训就是：计划永远赶不上变化。任何时候，金融精英们都能描绘出看似合理的发展蓝图。

And nobody would have ever been talking about a company like Tesla because they would have been out of business and bankrupt. So again, we want to bet on an investing strategy that we can put a lot of confidence in working out most of the 1,000 parallel universes. And since the biggest news story of the next ten years is something we simply can't foresee, it's also a reminder of just how difficult predictions can be. If there's one lesson from history, it's that we can only plan on things not going to plan. At about any point in time, financial luminaries can paint a story or paint a picture of how things are going to pan out.

在当时看来这些预测都很有道理，但事后往往显得荒谬可笑。既然预测如此困难，我们就需要构建投资组合时预设事情会偏离预期——因为历史总是如此。比如多数航空公司显然没做好全球旅行突然停滞还能存活的准备，这听起来像天方夜谭，但2020年3月就发生了。

And at the time, it's going to make a lot of sense most likely. But in hindsight, it oftentimes just looks absolutely ridiculous. So since forecasting is so, so difficult, we need to position our portfolios in a way where we can almost anticipate things not going to plan at some point because history tells us that this is the way it's always been. I suspect that most airline companies, for example, didn't position themselves in a way where they would survive just fine if global travel essentially came to a grinding halt. It seems like something that's almost an impossibility, but that's exactly what happened in March 2020.

比尔·盖茨是兼顾创新与风险防范的典范。1970年代他创立微软时，就预见互联网将让每张办公桌都有电脑。即便怀揣如此宏图，他仍以最保守的方式经营：始终保持巨额现金储备、零负债。他常说银行要有足够支付员工一年薪水的现金，即使零收入也能维持。

One example of somebody who did a good job of innovating and building a better future while at the same time preparing for the absolute worst in the near term is Bill Gates. Bill Gates in the 1970s created Microsoft, and he believed that with the rise of the Internet, there was going to be a computer on every desk in the world. Even with this out of the world grand vision, he managed Microsoft as conservatively as he possibly could. He would always have a ton of cash on the balance sheet and no debt. He always said that he wanted to have enough cash in the bank that he could pay employees for a year with zero revenues.

比尔·盖茨以绝妙方式应对世界的不确定性——确保任何灾难来袭时都能安然度过。接下来我想跳到第17章《悲观主义的诱惑》，这是本集第三个课题。在这个社交媒体和点击诱饵盛行的时代，人们极易陷入末日预言。豪塞尔引用历史学家迪尔德丽·麦克洛斯基的话：‘出于我无法理解的原因，人们总爱听世界要完蛋的论调。’

So Bill Gates approached this issue of the world fundamentally being so uncertain brilliantly. And he did this by positioning himself in a way where he was going to at least be okay no matter what catastrophe was thrown his way. Next, I wanted to jump to chapter 17 titled the seduction of pessimism, which is lesson number three for this episode. In this social media and clickbait driven world, it is so incredibly easy to get sucked into the doom and gloom predictions. Housel quotes historian, Diedre McCloskey, for reasons I have never understood, people like to hear that the world is going to hell, end quote.

这个话题令我深感兴趣，弗朗索瓦·罗雄在节目中也讨论过。他强调回顾过去百年人类进步时，我们在科技上取得的成就令人惊叹。所有这些都源自人类心智——不断创造新技术，持续找到更优解决方案。这种稳步进步使得过去世纪里，生活水平每25年就翻一番。

This is a topic that deeply interests me and is something that Francois Rochon discussed with us on the show as well. He highlighted that when you look back at how much mankind has progressed over the past century, it's truly amazing how much progress we've made technologically. All this has come from the human mind. And the human mind creating these new technologies and human ingenuity continually finding new ways to do things better and better and better. This steady progress has led to the standard of living doubling every twenty five years over the past century.

质疑持续创新就等于质疑人类会突然失去追求进步的意愿。从历史角度看，人类始终渴望改善现状。当然我们会经历暂时性的艰难时期，但历史表明这些困境终将过去——无论是疫情、世界大战、经济衰退还是其他挑战。以史为鉴，保持乐观对大多数人而言是最佳选择，因为世界在多数时候对多数人都在变得更好。但即便最聪明的人也容易被悲观情绪蒙蔽，在最黑暗的时刻认为乐观主义是天真的。

To bet against continued innovation is to bet against humans all of a sudden not wanting to strive to make things better. And from a historical standpoint, humans have generally always wanted to improve their current situation. Of course, we go through temporary periods where we come across something incredibly difficult, but history shows that these tend to pass and mankind continues to overcome them, whether it's pandemics, world wars, economic recessions, or whatnot. So with history as our guide, being optimistic is the best bet for most people because the world tends to get better for most people most of the time. But again, I think even the smartest people can be duped by pessimism, believing that optimism is naive in the worst of times.

2008年12月金融危机最严峻时，《华尔街日报》头版刊登了位俄罗斯教授对美国经济前景的预测。他认为美国将分裂为六个部分：阿拉斯加将回归俄罗斯控制，加利福尼亚会成为受中国影响的加州共和国，得克萨斯将成为受墨西哥影响的得克萨斯共和国核心。

In the depths of the financial crisis in December 2008, the Wall Street Journal ran a front page article by a Russian professor on the outlook of The US economy. This professor believed that The US would be breaking apart into six pieces. Alaska would be reverting to Russian control. California will be turned into the California Republic and will be under Chinese influence. Texas will be at the heart of the Texas Republic and under Mexican influence.

华盛顿特区和纽约将组成大西洋美国并可能加入欧盟。加拿大将吞并北部各州，形成这位教授所说的中北美共和国，最终被日本或中国控制。如今听来这简直荒谬绝伦，但这确实刊登在世界最负盛名报纸的头版。当然，糟糕的事情确实时有发生，有些国家经济会遭受重创。

Washington DC and New York will be part of the Atlantic America and may join the EU. Canada will grab the Northern states in what the professor referred to as the Central Northern American Republic would fall under Japan or Chinese control. Now this just sounds totally insane, but this was published on the front page of the most prestigious newspaper in the world. But there are still times where bad things do happen, of course. Some countries experience serious damage to their economy.

历史上这类例子比比皆是。但即便面对持续不断的悲观头条，人们往往比乐观新闻更认真对待这些预警。无论出于何种原因，悲观论调总显得更睿智可信。摩根写道：'告诉某人一切都会变好，他们要么敷衍以对，要么投来怀疑的目光；但若告知危险临近，立刻能获得他们全神贯注的关注。'

History is certainly full of examples of that. But even with the consistency of the doom and gloom headlines, people tend to take those much more seriously than the optimistic headlines. So for whatever reason, pessimism sounds smart and much more plausible than optimism. Morgan writes, tell someone that everything will be great and they're likely to either shrug you off or give you a skeptical eye. Tell someone they're in danger and you have their full undivided attention, end quote.

另一个有趣现象是：进步总是渐进式的。虽然进步日积月累，但灾难可能一夜降临。这让我想起巴菲特的格言：'建立声誉需要二十年，毁掉它只要五分钟。'由于摩根是位杰出作家，我忍不住再次引用：'增长源于复利效应，这永远需要时间。'

Another thing that's interesting is that progress is simply very gradual. While progress is made day by day, things can go absolutely terribly bad overnight. It reminded me of the Buffett quote that it takes twenty years to build a reputation and just five minutes to destroy one. Since Morgan is such a great writer, I just can't help but quote him. He writes, growth is driven by compounding, which always takes time.

'毁灭则源于瞬间发生的单点故障，或是顷刻间丧失的信心。'股市可能在六个月内暴跌40%，引发投资者各种恐慌情绪，但六年内140%的涨幅却可能无人察觉。人类天生厌恶损失，亏损带来的痛苦远胜盈利的喜悦。因此我们必须警惕经济中任何潜在危机。

Destruction is driven by single points of failure, which can happen in seconds and loss of confidence, which can happen in an instant, end quote. In the stock market, a 40% decline can happen within six months, stirring up all kinds of emotions and panic for market participants, but a 140% gain that happens over six years can go virtually unnoticed. And humans tend to be loss averse. So losses hurt much more than gains feel good. So we wanna keep an eye out for anything that might be potentially bad happening within the economy.

悲观主义者还常犯的错误是线性 extrapolation（外推）当前趋势，忽视市场适应能力。预测丑陋现状将持续很容易，却忽略了人类面对新问题总会创造更好解决方案。摩根·豪瑟著作中我想讨论的第四课是：明确目标并知足常乐。前文提到人类天生渴望更多，但问题在于——更多汽车、更大房子、更多物品、更多假期、更多财富，这些未必让我们更幸福。

Another issue is that pessimists tend to extrapolate present trends without accounting for how markets adapt. Assuming that what is ugly will stay ugly is an easy prediction to make and ignoring the fact that when given new problems, humans tend to come up with new and better solutions. The fourth lesson I wanted to discuss related to Morgan Housel's work is to know what your goals are and know what is enough for you. I had mentioned earlier that we as humans are hardwired to always want more and to better our situation. The problem is getting more cars, getting a bigger house, having more stuff to fill our house with, more vacations, more money, more assets, whatever it is, this stuff doesn't necessarily make us any happier.

往往事与愿违。有时我们追求更多时，反而会做出愚蠢之事。巴菲特说过，永远不要拿你已拥有且需要的东西，去冒险换取你既没有也不需要的东西。豪塞尔在《金钱心理学》中讲述了拉贾特·古普塔的故事——这个出生在加尔各答的少年，十几岁就成了孤儿。

Oftentimes, it does the opposite. And sometimes when we reach for more, we can really do foolish things. Warren Buffett stated, never risk what you have and need for what you don't have and don't need. Housel tells the story of Rajat Gupta in the psychology of money. Gupta was born in Calcutta and orphaned as a teenager.

他为自己打造了极其辉煌的职业生涯：四十五岁左右成为全球最负盛名的咨询公司麦肯锡的CEO，曾在联合国和世界经济论坛任职，与比尔·盖茨共事慈善事业。到2008年，据传他坐拥1亿美元资产——这笔钱远超常人想象中能花完甚至需要的数额。

He really built for himself an extremely successful career. So in his mid forties, he became the CEO of McKinsey, the world's most prestigious consulting firm. He held roles with the United Nations and the World Economic Forum. He did philanthropy work with Bill Gates. And by 2008, he was reportedly worth $100,000,000 more money than about anyone could imagine being able to spend or, you know, even need.

但古普塔始终缺一样关键东西：他觉得永远不够。他极度渴望成为亿万富翁。作为高盛董事会成员，他终日与全球最富有的投资者为伍。金融危机期间，他获悉巴菲特计划向高盛注资50亿美元，认为这将使股价飙升，于是利用这条内幕信息采取了行动。

But there was this one crucial thing that Gupta didn't have, and that was that he didn't have enough. He wanted to be a billionaire and clearly he wanted it badly. Gupta sat on the board of directors at Goldman Sachs, which surrounded him with some of the wealthiest investors in the world. During the great financial crisis, Gupta got word that Warren Buffett planned to invest $5,000,000,000 into shares of Goldman, which Gupta thought would send the stock soaring. So he acted on this insider information.

得知交易后，他立即致电对冲基金经理，要求买入17.5万股高盛股票，当天便轻松获利100万美元。最终古普塔和对冲基金经理因内幕交易入狱，事业声誉毁于一旦。这就是为不重要之事赌上重要之物的代价。摩根在此总结了四点启示：第一，最难的理财技能是让目标止步。

Immediately after learning about the deal, he called his hedge fund manager and told him to buy 175,000 shares in Goldman Sachs. In that day, Gupta earned a quick $1,000,000 Gupta and the hedge fund manager would end up going to prison for insider trading, and their careers and reputations were irrevocably ruined. That is the potential price to be paid for risking something important to you for something that is not really important to you. Morgan has four key takeaways he lists here that I'll share. First, the hardest financial skill is getting the goalpost to stop moving.

不断移动球门柱会让你感觉自己在倒退而非进步，而追赶的唯一方式就是承担越来越大的风险。第二，社会比较是症结所在。古普塔总是与身边更富有的人比较。即便年入百万，若住在纽约最富社区，比较之下仍会自觉贫穷。

When you continually move the goalpost, it can almost feel like you're falling behind instead of getting ahead. And the only way to catch up is to continue taking on greater and greater risks. Second, social comparison is a problem here. Gupta was surrounded by people wealthier than him who he compared himself to. You could be making a million dollars a year, but if you live in the richest neighborhood in New York City, then you'll probably feel broke if you're comparing yourself to those in your environment.

与他人比较将永远让你感觉不足，因为永远没有让你觉得'到顶'的天花板。赢得社会比较战的唯一方法就是不参与这场游戏。第三，'足够'并非太少。知足不是保守或错失机会，而是认识到贪得无厌终将引你至悔恨之境。

If you're comparing yourself to others, then you'll never feel like you have enough because there's no ceiling where you'll ever feel like you hit the top. The only way to win the battle of social comparison is to simply not play that game. Third, enough is not too little. The idea of enough is not being conservative and leaving opportunity on the table. In fact, it's realizing that the insatiable appetite for more will push you to the point of regret.

他用饮食作比喻：只有吃到呕吐才知道食量极限。少有人会尝试，因为这很痛苦——但这种逻辑在投资中并不适用。多数人只有在崩溃或被迫时才会停止索取。引用原话：'无论何时，无法拒绝潜在收益的诱惑终将反噬你。'

He uses the analogy of food here. The only way you know how much food you can eat is to eat until you're sick. Few are going to try this because it's very painful to do it, but this logic doesn't translate well into investing. And many will only stop reaching for more when they break or when they're forced to. I quote, whatever it is, the inability to deny a potential dollar will eventually catch up to you, end quote.

最后，第四条原则是：有些事物无论潜在回报多大，都不值得冒险。摩根在此列举了几样无价之宝：你的声誉、自由与独立、家人朋友、被所爱之人珍视的幸福——这些全都是无法用价值衡量的珍宝。

And finally, the fourth one here, there are many things never worth risking no matter the potential gain. Some things are simply invaluable and not even worth considering risking. Morgan lists a number of these things here that are simply invaluable. Your reputation, your freedom and independence, family and friends, being loved by those who you want to love you, happiness. All these things are invaluable.

知足常乐能帮你避免拿这些珍宝冒险。而明确个人目标正是知足的关键：想清楚人生追求、所需资金额度及用钱时间点。在《金钱心理学》中，豪塞尔提出个人财务应重合理而非绝对理性——电子表格可能显示未来五十年全仓股票收益最高，但多数人承受不了这种波动。

Knowing when you have enough can help prevent you from risking any of these things. And another part of recognizing when you have enough is knowing what your goals are. Consider what you want out of life, how much money that's going to take, and when you're going to need that amount of money. In the psychology of money, Housel also argues that we should be reasonable and not rational when it comes to our personal finances. So a spreadsheet might suggest to us that to get the highest returns over the next fifty years, we should put all of our portfolio into stocks the entire time.

为换取夜间安眠（比如股市暴跌50%时），人们会配置其他低波动资产。节目中摩根分享了他的极简投资法：绝大部分财富配置在先锋低成本指数基金。这既省心让他专注所长，也无需周末研读财报。

But some people simply can't handle this level of volatility, so they may add other assets into the mix in exchange for lower volatility so they can sleep better at night when the stock market happens to be down 50% during a big crisis. For example, Morgan and I discussed his own investment strategy on the show and Morgan takes a very simple approach to investing. So the vast majority of his wealth is invested in low cost Vanguard index funds. And I think part of the reason for this is that first, this is just a hands off approach and it lets him focus on what he enjoys doing and what he's really good at doing. He doesn't want to read 10 Ks on the weekends.

他只需将储蓄投入能长期获得满意回报的渠道。这种策略能助他稳步实现财务目标——不必追逐特斯拉IPO，只需坚持定投穿越牛熊。他甚至无需追求最高收益，

He just wants to allocate his savings in a vehicle that is likely to generate a satisfactory return over a long period of time. And I think the second thing here is that this approach will likely set him up to achieve his financial goals over time. He doesn't need to catch the next Tesla at its IPO. He just needs to generate a moderate return over time and ensure that he stays invested in dollar cost averages through the ups and downs in the market. And he doesn't need to generate the highest returns either.

因为他深谙'适可而止'的智慧。设定目标时，必须厘清个人真正的优先级，否则可能追逐本不需要的东西。接下来第五课：比起短期回报，更应关注投资期限。人们常纠结市场估值高低，

He's recognized what's enough for him and he doesn't overreach and risk shooting himself in the foot. In thinking about your goals, I think we also need to get crystal clear on what is most important to each individual person and what isn't important. If you don't determine what is most important to you, you may find yourself chasing something that you didn't even want in the first place. Next here, let's talk about focusing more on your time horizon and less on your returns, which is lesson number five. Many people oftentimes become concerned about whether the market is overvalued or undervalued.

但摩根在节目中指出：当投资期限足够长，当前估值根本无关紧要。即便1929年大萧条前最高点入市，持有四五十年的回报仍会回归长期均值。他说：'我的策略就是长期保持平庸——若能以先锋指数收益坚持五十年，最终反而能超越99%的投资者。'短期收益被高估，而长期主义被严重低估。

When Morgan and I chatted about his investment approach on the show, he mentioned that when your time horizon is long enough, it really doesn't matter if the market is overvalued or undervalued today. If you started investing at the peak in the 1920s in September 1929, prior to a decade long depression, then your investment returns still converged to the long term average if you had a forty year or fifty year time horizon. Morgan stated, The way that I invest in my strategy is to be average for an above average period of time. And I think if I can do that, if I can earn a Vanguard return for fifty years, then I'll probably end up in the top 1% of all investors, end quote. I believe that trying to maximize near term returns is overrated and maximizing your time horizon is underrated.

延迟满足者终获厚报。《金钱心理学》提到：无数书籍分析巴菲特致富之道，却少有人强调其核心秘诀——超长投资期限。他自幼开始投资，持续延迟满足超80年。录制本期时其净资产1356亿美元中，1353亿（99.8%）是在50岁后累积的。

The greatest rewards come to those who are willing to delay gratification. In the Psychology of Money, Housel explains that countless books are dedicated to explaining how Warren Buffett built his fortune, many of which are wonderful books and books I've discussed on the show. But few highlight the importance of Buffett's secret, which was his time horizon. He literally started investing when he was a child and he continually delayed gratification for over eighty years. As of the time of recording, Buffett is worth $135,600,000,000 and of that amount, 135,300,000,000.0 or 99.8% of it was accumulated after his fiftieth birthday.

巴菲特是一位杰出的投资者，但他成功的关键之一在于其投资年限之长。假设他三十多岁开始投资，六十多岁退休，你可能从未听说过他。豪塞尔写道，他的技能是投资，但秘诀是时间。这就是复利的魔力。另一点值得注意的是，对大多数人而言，实现巴菲特式的高回报既不现实，也非我们想要投入时间的方式。

Buffett is a phenomenal investor, but one of the real keys to his success is how long he's been invested. Had he started investing in his thirties and retired in his sixties, odds are that you never would have heard of him before. Housel writes, his skill is investing, but his secret is time. That's how compounding works. Another point worth highlighting is that achieving high returns like Buffett is impractical for the vast majority of people and not how a lot of us want to spend our time.

巴菲特在创造超额收益方面确实是个异类。但就投资 longevity（长期性）而言，只要我们尚未退休或临近退休年龄，任何人都能从中受益。我刚满30岁，希望还有50多年的投资跑道。为简化计算，让我们以30岁为起点，测算50年投资周期的威力。假设这位虚拟投资者在20多岁时勤于储蓄，到30岁已存下10万美元。

Buffett's just an out outlier in terms of his ability to generate outsized returns. But when it comes to investing longevity, any of us can take advantage of this, assuming that we aren't already in retirement today or we're nearing retirement age. I just recently turned 30, so hopefully I still have another fifty plus years of investment runway. For simplicity's sake, let's run the numbers on the power of investing over a fifty year time period, starting at age 30. Let's say this hypothetical investor was a diligent saver throughout their 20s and they were able to sock away $100,000 by age 30.

他们不纠结个股选择，而是认同摩根集团接受平均回报、着眼长期视野的策略。假设年化回报7%且不再追加投资，这10万美元到80岁将变成290万美元。若每月额外追加1000美元投资，最终金额将不是290万，而是接近800万美元。在这个虚拟场景的第50年，账户单年增值就超过50万美元。

Instead of worrying about stock picks, they were okay with the approach that Morgan takes of accepting an average return and taking very long term time horizon. So if we assume a 7% annual return without any additional contributions, this $100,000 would turn into 2,900,000.0 by age 80. These returns become supercharged when we factor in additional contributions. So let's just say if we add an additional $1,000 per month of contributions during this time period, instead of it growing to 2,900,000.0, it would grow to nearly 8,000,000. In the fiftieth year in this hypothetical scenario, the value of the account increases by over 500,000 in just that one year.

这生动展现了长期复利的巨大威力。它提醒我们，人类大脑本就不擅长指数级思维——线性思维比指数思维直观得多。多数人不愿延迟满足，不想让投资沉淀数十年。

This helps illustrate the enormous power of long term compounding. It's a good reminder that our brains aren't hardwired to think in these exponential figures. Linear thinking is much more intuitive than exponential thinking. And most people don't want to delay gratification. They don't wanna sit on their investments for decades.

他们想要本月或本季度的回报。正因如此，长期延迟满足的回报才如此丰厚。作为选股者，我希望能在我选择合作的经理人身上，以及我所持股的企业中，发现这种延迟满足的特质。比尔，我们...

They want returns this month or this quarter. And that is why the rewards of delaying gratification for that long are so great. As a stock picker myself, I want to find this trait of delayed gratification in the managers that I choose to partner with through the ownership and the businesses that I own. Bill Let's take a

稍事休息，听听今日赞助商的消息。

quick break and hear from today's sponsors.

比尔，初创企业行动迅速。借助AI，它们产品迭代更快，更早吸引企业客户。但大订单会带来更大的安全和合规要求——SOC2认证往往不够。恰当的安全措施能成就交易，也能毁掉交易。

Bill Startups move fast. And with AI, they're shipping even faster and attracting enterprise buyers sooner. But big deals bring even bigger security and compliance requirements. A SOC two isn't always enough. The right kind of security can make a deal or break it.

但哪位创始人或工程师能抽身离开公司建设？Vanta的人工智能与自动化让您在数日内轻松搞定大单。Vanta持续监控合规性，确保未来交易畅通无阻。Vanta随您业务扩展而成长，全程提供支持保障。面对AI重塑法规与买家预期的时代，Vanta精准掌握需求节点，为您打造最快最便捷的实现路径。

But what founder or engineer can afford to take time away from building their company? Vanta's AI and automation make it easy to get big deals ready in days. And Vanta continuously monitors your compliance so future deals are never blocked. Plus Vanta scales with you, backed by support that's there when you need it every step of the way. With AI changing regulations and buyers' expectations, Vanta knows what's needed and when, and they've built the fastest, easiest path to help you get there.

这就是为什么严肃的初创公司都选择Vanta早期筑牢安全防线。我们的听众可在vanta.com/billionaires获得1000美元优惠。每个企业都在思考同一个问题：如何让AI为我们所用？

That's why serious startups get secure early with Vanta. Our listeners get $1,000 off at vanta.com/billionaires. That's vanta.com/billionaires for $1,000 off. Every business is asking the same question. How do we make AI work for us?

可能性无限但试错风险太高。袖手旁观绝非选择，因为几乎可以肯定您的竞争对手已在行动。没有时间等待——Oracle的NetSuite让您即刻部署AI。作为43000+企业信赖的头号AI云ERP，

The possibilities are endless and guessing is too risky. But sitting on the sidelines is not an option because one thing is almost certain, your competitors are already making their moves. There isn't time to wait. With NetSuite by Oracle, you can put AI to work today. NetSuite is the number one AI cloud ERP trusted by over 43,000 businesses.

这套统一系统将财务、库存、商务、人力资源和客户关系管理整合为单一数据源。智能自动化日常任务，降低成本，助您自信做出AI驱动决策。无论企业规模大小，NetSuite助您保持领先。若我需要这类产品，这正是我的选择。立即获取免费商业指南《AI解密》请访问netsuite.com/study。

It's a unified suite that brings your financials, inventory, commerce, HR, and CRM into a single source of truth. Intelligently automate routine tasks, cut costs, and make AI powered decisions with confidence. Whether your company earns millions or even hundreds of millions, NetSuite helps you stay ahead of the pack. And if I needed this product, it is what I would use. Right now, get their free business guide, demystifying AI at netsuite.com/study.

免费指南获取地址netsuite.com/study。想象这个场景：午夜时分，您躺在床上浏览新发现的网站，将心仪商品加入购物车。结账时想起钱包在客厅，却不愿离开被窝。正欲放弃之际，您看到了那个紫色购物按钮——它已保存所有支付与配送信息，让您足不出被窝轻松完成交易。

The guide is free to you at netsuite.com/study, netsuite.com/study. Picture this, it's midnight, you're lying in bed scrolling through this new website you found and hitting the add to cart button on that item you've been looking for. Once you're ready to check out, you remember that your wallet is in your living room and you don't want to get out of bed to go get it. Just as you're getting ready to abandon your cart, that's when you see it, that purple shop button. That shop button has all of your payment and shipping info saved, saving you time while in the comfort of your own bed.

这就是Shopify，包括我在内的众多企业选择它的原因。从结账到创建专属店面，Shopify简化一切流程。作为全球数百万企业的商业后台，它支撑着美国10%的电商交易，既有美泰、Gymshark等知名品牌，也有像我这样刚起步的商家。Shopify为您提供全球转化率最高的结账系统。

That's Shopify, and there's a reason so many businesses, including mine, sell with it. Because Shopify makes everything easier, from checkout to creating your own storefront. Shopify is the commerce platform behind millions of businesses all around the world and 10% of all e commerce in The US. From household names like Mattel and Gymshark to brands like mine that are still getting started. And Shopify gives you access to the best converting checkout on the planet.

让Shopify助您实现宏伟商业构想，日后您定会感激。立即注册享受1美元月试用，今天就开始销售：shopify.com/wsb。

Turn your big business idea into reality with Shopify on your side and thank me later. Sign up for your $1 per month trial and start selling today at shopify.com/wsb. That's shopify.com/wsb.

好的，回到节目中来。

All right. Back to the show.

高塔姆·巴特在其著作《复利的喜悦》中深入阐释了这一概念。巴特写道，管理团队往往过分关注公式中的回报变量，追求短期高利润率和高每股收益增长的即时满足，而非那些能为多年后创造更大企业价值的举措。这导致许多管理团队放弃能创造长期价值但会使近期会计数据难看的投资。分析师的压力可能无意中促使企业从现有客户身上榨取最大利润以呈现亮眼季度报表，而非通过公平定价建立持久商誉和多方共赢的长期关系。

Gautam Bate explains this concept in-depth in his book, The Joys of Compounding. Bade writes, all too often management teams focus on the return variable in the equation. They seek instant gratification with high profit margins and high growth in reported earnings per share in the near term as opposed to initiatives that would lead to a much more valuable business many years down the line. This causes many management teams to pass on investments that would create long term value, but would cause accounting numbers to look bad in the near term. Pressure from analysts can inadvertently incentivize companies to make as much money as possible off their present customers to report good quarterly numbers instead of offering a fair price that creates enduring goodwill and a long term win win relationship for all stakeholders.

多数企业未能理解短期高利润与通过自律定价和提供优质客户价值带来的企业 longevity 之间的微妙权衡。以Valiant制药为例，他们从创新公司购买罕见病救命药后实施掠夺性定价。虽然当时因每股收益快速增长使财务指标看似诱人，但这种与客户的寄生关系不可持续，最终摧毁了股东价值。反观亚马逊的杰夫·贝索斯则采取完全相反的策略。

Most businesses fail to appreciate this delicate trade off between high short term profitability and the longevity accorded to the businesses through disciplined pricing and offering great customer value. So to look at two contrasting examples, we can look at the case of Valiant Pharmaceuticals. They would buy life saving drugs for rare diseases from innovative companies and then resort to predatory pricing practices. The financial metrics at the time might have looked really attractive due to the rapid EPS growth, but this type of parasitic relationship with customers simply wasn't sustainable and ended up destroying shareholder value in the future. On the other hand, we have someone like Jeff Bezos from Amazon who would do the exact opposite.

当有机会获取更多利润时，他反而降低亚马逊售价，相信这将赢得客户信任，并通过建立极度忠诚的客户群体为股东创造长期价值。做客《更富足·更智慧·更快乐》播客第13期的投资者汤姆·鲁索称此为'承受痛苦的能力'。对企业而言，这意味着以牺牲短期报表利润为代价进行再投资以构建长期竞争优势。在股市寻找这类长期赢家时，我青睐资本回报率高、管理层具有长远眼光、善于资本配置并为未来增长再投资的企业。

When he had the opportunity to earn more profits, he would lower prices at Amazon, trusting that this would gain trust with customers and deliver more shareholder value over the long run as he built out an extremely loyal customer base. Investor Tom Russo, who was a guest on the Richer Wiser Happier podcast, in episode 13, he referred to this as the capacity to suffer. And in a business's case, this really means the capacity to reinvest and build that long term competitive advantage at the potential cost of depressing short term reported earnings. In looking for these long term winners in the stock market, I want companies that earn high returns on capital. They have managers who think long term and they're managers who allocate capital well and they reinvest for that future growth.

我认为与高塔姆书中观点相关的好指标是：寻找那些不为下季度盈利提供指引的管理者，他们愿意尝试新想法，进军风险低且收益不对称的新领域。巴特认为，拥抱延迟满足能为投资者带来最大优势。《百倍股》作者托马斯·菲利普斯说过：'在股市赚钱需要发现好股票的眼光，买入的勇气，以及持有的耐心——而耐心是三者中最稀缺的。'豪塞尔在《一如既往》中关于耐心的章节题为《太多、太早、太快》。

So I think good indicators in relation to what Gautam's talking about in the book is that looking for managers who don't issue guidance for next quarter's earnings, they're willing to test out new ideas, venture into new territory that offers a low risk and asymmetric payoff. Bate argues that embracing deferred gratification is what leads to the single biggest edge for an investor. And Thomas Phelps, who wrote a 100 to one, the stock market, he stated, to make money in stocks, you need to have the vision to see them, the courage to buy them, and the patience to hold them. Patience is the rarest of the three. Housel has a chapter in Same As Ever on Patience titled Too Much, Too Soon, Too Fast.

当人们发现好点子或有价值事物时——比如暴利投资或特殊技能——本能反应是追问'能不能更快获得？能否加倍努力？能否规模翻倍？能否榨取更多价值？'摩根指出这种追问虽自然，但万物皆有天然规模和速度，过度强求只会适得其反。

Whenever people discover a good idea or something that's valuable, such as a lucrative investment or a special skill, the natural tendency is for us to ask ourselves, great, but can I have it all faster? Can we push it twice as hard? Can we make it twice the size? Can we squeeze a little bit more juice out of it? Morgan explains that it's a natural question and it's understandable, but most things have a natural size and a natural speed, and it backfires quickly when you push things too far.

这提醒我们真正伟大的成就需要时间沉淀。摩根在播客中引用沙莫斯的名言：'事物成长的速度，往往也是其毁灭速度的标尺。'难怪当有人试图快速致富、将十年收益压缩到一个月时，结局往往惨淡。摩根写道：'投资史的终极总结是——股票长期回报丰厚，但若急于求成就会招致惩罚性损失。'就单月而言，股价涨跌本质上只是抛硬币。

It's a reminder that truly great things take time. Morgan shared a saying from Shammoth on the podcast that however fast something can grow, that's the half life at which it can be destroyed. So it's no wonder when someone tries to get rich quick and compress the returns of a decade into a single month that things tend to end up pretty badly for them. Morgan writes, I quote, a good summary of investing history is that stocks pay a fortune in the long run, but seek punitive damages when you demand to be paid sooner, end quote. So over a one month period, whether stocks go up or stocks go down, it's essentially a coin toss.

52%的月份里你会看到股票上涨。但当你以十年为投资周期时，经通胀调整后美股88%的时间都在上涨。因此在股市中投资周期越长，对运气的依赖就越小。在这个充斥着短期头条、短期预测、短期每股收益指引和短期价格目标的世界里，做一名耐心的长期投资者终将获得回报。我认为培养长期财富所需的耐心，也让我们能更充分地珍视这份财富。

In 52% a month, you'll see stocks increase. But when you invest over a ten year time horizon, US stocks increase 88% of the time after adjusting for inflation. So the longer one's time horizon in the stock market, the less one is relying on luck. In a world with short term headlines, short term forecasts, short term EPS guidance, and short term price targets, it pays to be a patient long term investor. I think that the appreciation of the patient that it takes to build long term wealth also allows us to fully appreciate that wealth as well.

生活中大多数珍贵事物的价值都源于两样东西：耐心与稀缺性。耐心让我们见证成长，稀缺性使我们珍视成果。但长期投资者并不意味着前路永远坦途。摩根在关于投资周期的章节中写道：‘长期主义比多数人想象的更难，这也正是它比许多人预期的更有利可图的原因。’事实上，投资周期越长，你将经历的灾难与挫折就越多。

Most great things in life gain value from two things, patience and scarcity. Patience allows us to let something grow and scarcity helps us fully appreciate what it grows into. But just because you're a long term investor doesn't mean that it's all sunshine and roses going forward. Morgan writes in his chapter on time horizons that, I quote, long term is harder than most people imagine, which is why it's more lucrative than many people assume, end quote. In fact, the longer your time horizon is, the more calamities and the more disasters you're going to experience.

摩根还提出一个精辟观点：仅凭自己对长期主义的信念是不够的，必须获得他人的认同。比如经营企业时，你需要与合伙人和员工达成共识。难怪那么多上市公司管理者都在迎合短期问题——因为这正是分析师和投资者想要的。作为某些个股的投资者（像我们许多听众一样），我们必须警惕不要把固执伪装成长期思维和耐心。

Morgan also makes the brilliant point that your belief in the long run isn't enough. Others have to be on board with you as well. So for instance, if you're running a business, you need to be aligned with your partners and aligned with your employees. And it's no wonder that so many managers of public companies, they are pandering to these short term issues because it's what the analysts and it's what the investors want. As an investor in some of these individual companies, like many in our audience, we have to be careful that we aren't taking stubbornness and disguising it as thinking long term and being patient.

摩根这样写道：‘世界在变化，因此改变想法不仅是明智之举，更是生存必需。但改变想法之所以困难，是因为自我欺骗远比承认错误容易。长期思维可能成为错误者的拐杖——他们不愿改变立场，只说‘我只是出手过早’或‘其他人都疯了’，无法放下那些曾经正确但已被时代淘汰的观念。’

So Morgan writes here, the world changes, which makes changing your mind not just helpful, but crucial. But changing your mind is hard because fooling yourself into believing a falsehood is so much easier than admitting a mistake. Long term thinking can become a crutch for those who are wrong, but don't want to change their mind. They say, I'm just early, or everyone else is crazy. When they can't let go of something that used to be true, but the world has moved on from, end quote.

长期主义与固执思维之间的界限如此微妙，因为世界从来非黑即白。但当我们能确认最初的投资逻辑明显错误时，及时纠错就至关重要，以免陷入持续持有不良资产的陷阱。这让我想起克里斯·梅耶在节目中的观点：当你发现一家优秀企业时，必须明确决定其十年成败的两三个关键因素或绩效指标。这样面对短期新闻时，就能判断这些消息对根本变量的影响。以十年周期来看，这些往往只是制造头条的短期波动，长期而言无足轻重。

So long term versus this stubborn thinking is such a tricky line to walk because the world just isn't black and white. But when we're able to recognize that our original investment thesis was clearly wrong, then moving on from such a mistake is critical to ensure that we don't make the mistake of continuing to hold on to a poor investment. I'm also reminded of the point that Chris Mayer told me on the show, when you find what you believe to be a great business, you need to identify the two or three key factors or the two or three key performance metrics that are going to determine the success or the failure of that investment over a ten year time period. So then when you have these short term news headlines, you can ask yourself how those headlines impact those variables that ultimately matter. When you look out over that ten year time horizon, I think you'll find oftentimes it's just a short term blip that made for an interesting news headline, but over the long run, didn't really matter at all.

接下来谈谈市场周期——这是本期第六个也是最后一个课题。其实我在第559期节目深入探讨过这个概念，当时解读了霍华德·马克斯的《掌握市场周期》。但摩根对此的阐述同样精彩：经济始终在贪婪与恐惧、乐观与悲观的循环中往复。

Next, let's talk about market cycles. So this is the sixth and final lesson from this episode. So I actually went in deep on this concept of market cycles back on episode five fifty nine, where I discussed Howard Marks' book, Mastering the Market Cycle. But Morgan has such a great way of covering this concept as well. So economies go through these continuous cycles of greed and fear, optimism and pessimism.

经济呈现周期性波动的根源在于人类总容易走向极端。当经济稳定时，人们变得乐观；乐观情绪催生债务；债务积累又导致经济失衡。海曼·明斯基提出的开创性理论指出：稳定本身就会孕育不稳定性。

And the reason that economies go through these cycles is because we as humans have a tendency to take things too far. When an economy becomes stable, people get optimistic. When they get optimistic, they go into debt. And when they go into debt, the economy becomes unstable. Hyman Minsky put together what he called the seminal theory, which was the stability itself is destabilizing.

经济衰退的缺失恰恰为下一次衰退埋下了种子，这就是为什么我们似乎永远无法摆脱它们。一旦我们理解市场周期与人类天性直接相关，就能更好地应对这些必然发生的周期。豪斯分享了卡尔·荣格的理论——物极必反。当经济体长期未经历衰退时，会给市场参与者一种风平浪静、环境安全的错觉。而现实是，当人们认为最安全的时候，往往才是最危险的时刻。

So a lack of recessions plants the seeds for the next recession, which is why it seems that we can never get rid of them. Once we understand that market cycles are directly tied to our innate human behavior, we can be more equipped to deal with these cycles that inevitably play out. Household shared a theory from Carl Jung, which was the idea that an excess of one thing gave rise to the opposite. So when an economy hasn't experienced a recession for quite some time, it gives market participants the illusion that the coast is clear, the environment's safe. And the reality is that things can become most dangerous when people perceive them to be the safest.

我同样喜欢他关于市场泡沫的观点。他认为乐观与悲观总会超越合理范畴，因为探索可能性边界的唯一方式就是稍微越过这些边界。他以杰瑞·宋飞为例——这位演员在拥有最热门电视剧时选择退出。或许节目本可以更受欢迎，也可能不退出就会开始衰落，但他对经历后者毫无兴趣。豪斯写道：如果你想理解为何经济与市场总在疯狂边缘游走，在繁荣与萧条、泡沫与崩盘间循环，原因就在于极少人具备宋飞这种心态。

I also loved the point in relation to market bubbles. He argues that optimism and pessimism always have to overshoot what seems reasonable because the only way to discover the limits of what's possible is to venture a little ways past those limits. He uses the example of Jerry Seinfeld, who had the most popular show on TV and then he quit. Maybe it could become an even more popular TV show, or maybe it would have started to decline had he not quit, but he had no interest in experiencing that. Hauzle writes, if you wanna know why there's a long history of economies and markets blowing past the boundaries of sanity, bouncing from boom to bust, bubble to crash, it's because so few people have Seinfeld's mentality.

我们总执着于寻找顶点，而唯一确认顶点的方式就是不断推进直至越过界限。直到回望时才能恍然：'啊，那大概就是顶点了'。短期来看，股票乃至所有资产的价格都取决于当下有人愿意支付的价格，而支付意愿又取决于人们的情绪、信念，以及他人讲述的故事有多动人——这些根本无从预测。

We insist on knowing where the top is, and the only way to find it is to keep pushing until we've gone too far. When we can look back and say, ah, I guess that was the top, end quote. In the short term, stocks and really any asset is priced based on what someone's willing to pay for it at that given moment. What someone is willing to pay is based on how they're feeling, what they wanna believe, and how persuasive of a story people can tell. And these things can't really be predicted.

我特别认同他这个观点：'每隔几年就会有人宣称市场失效了，说它们全是投机或脱离基本面。但历来如此。人们并非丧失理智，只是在试探其他投资者愿意相信的边界。'

And I love his point here. I quote, every few years, there seems to be a declaration that markets don't work anymore, that they're all speculation or detached from fundamentals. But it's always been that way. People haven't lost their minds. They're just searching for the boundaries of what other investors are willing to believe.

结束引用。对了，我忍不住要补充一个额外收获——摩根最近做客霍华德·马克斯的播客《备忘录》，他们关于债务影响的讨论令我茅塞顿开。摩根在《我的债务观》一文中提到：日本拥有140家至少500年历史的企业。

End quote. All right. So I also couldn't help but add just one more bonus takeaway here since Morgan was actually just on Howard Marks' podcast, The Memo, where Morgan and Howard discussed the impact of debt that I just found to be so incredibly insightful. So I think you're going to enjoy it as well. Morgan talked about how Japan in his article titled, How I Think About Debt, Japan has 140 businesses that are at least 500 years old.

其中有些甚至声称存在超过千年——想想这期间经历的各种灾难、疫情、经济衰退等，实在令人惊叹。这些超长寿命企业有两个共同点：一是持有大量现金，二是零负债。摩根写道：'随着债务增加，你能承受的生命波动范围就变窄了。'

And then some of these businesses have even claimed to be around for over one thousand years, which is just incredible to think about considering all the catastrophes and, you know, pandemics, recessions, all the things that happen over a fifty or even a hundred year time period. These ultra durable businesses share two common characteristics. First, they hold a ton of cash. And second, they have no debt. Morgan writes, As debt increases, you narrow the range of outcomes you can endure in your life.

其核心逻辑是：当环境平稳向好时，人们和企业总会开始负债，假设好时光将持续。可惜世界从不如此仁慈。波动与意外本就是游戏的一部分，且不可避免。零负债时，个体能承受的波动事件相当多；但随着债务引入，你的承受范围就会急剧收缩。

The thinking here is that when things are calm or things are generally good, people and businesses, they start to take on debt assuming that things are just going to continue to be that way. If only the world were so kind. Volatility and unexpected events is really just a part of the game and really inevitable. With no debt, the number of volatile events one can withstand is fairly high. But as you introduce debt into the equation, your range of what you can endure shrinks.

当你背负巨额债务时，只需一次经济冲击就能让你倾家荡产。霍华德·马克斯在2008年末金融危机期间写过一份备忘录，标题是《波动性加杠杆等于炸药》。简单来说就是：你使用的杠杆越多，陷入困境的频率就越高；用借来的钱购买波动性越大的资产，你惹上麻烦的概率就越大。而杠杆与波动性的双重叠加，最终会导致财务崩盘。既然摩根打算做未来五十年的投资者，那么经历重大战争、经济衰退、恐怖袭击、疫情、家庭变故、突发健康危机或其他完全不可预知事件的可能性——这些情况至少发生一种的概率是100%。

And when you introduce a ton of debt, you know, just one economic shock can just wipe you out. Howard Marks wrote a memo in late two thousand and eight during the great financial crisis titled, Volatility plus Leverage equals Dynamite. The easy way to think about this is the more leverage you use, the more often you're going to get yourself into trouble, And the more volatile the assets you buy with that borrowed money, the more you get in trouble. And the combination of both leverage and volatility just can really lead to one blowing up financially. Since Morgan wants to be an investor for the next fifty years, the chances of enduring either a major war, a recession, a terrorist attack, a pandemic, a family emergency, an unforeseen health crisis, or something, you know, totally unthinkable, the chances of at least one of those things happening is a 100%.

当你认真对待这个事实时，就会更严肃看待债务的影响。不是说永远不该举债，而是使用时必须尽可能负责任。我认为这不仅适用于个人财务，也适用于我们经营或投资的企业。霍华德在那期播客中延伸了摩根的观点：企业陷入财务困境时，几乎每次都与债务有关。如果你零负债，就不会面临止赎或被迫破产。

When you take that fact seriously, you start to take the impact of debt more seriously. It's not that debt shouldn't ever be used, but when it is used, we should try and use it responsibly by whatever means possible. And I think we can apply this to not only our own personal finances, but also to the businesses we operate or the businesses we invest in. In that podcast, Howard expanded on Morgan's ideas by saying that when a company gets into financial trouble, in essentially every instance, it's related to debt. You can't be foreclosed on or you can't be forced into bankruptcy if you have zero debt.

霍华德联想到拉斯维加斯的赌场经理——他总提醒赌客们下注越大，赢钱时获利就越多。这话听起来诱人，但同样适用于市场：用两万本金投资获胜时，收益确实比用一万时多。但赌场经理没说的是：你输钱时下注越大，亏损就越惨重。如果用借来的钱加注，更可能被迫破产。

Howard was reminded of the pit boss in Las Vegas who comes around and he tells the gamblers to remember that the more you bet, the more you win when you win. This sounds great and it sounds enticing, but this obvious point also applies to markets. You make more on your winning investments when you bet 20,000 instead of betting 10,000. However, the pit boss failed to mention that the more you bet on your losing hands, the more you're going to lose. And when you bet more with borrowed money, you can be forced into bankruptcy.

摩根还分享了里克·古伦的轶事。这位1960年代与巴菲特、芒格共同投资的合伙人，当年三人持仓相似的股票和企业时都收益颇丰。但如今世人只知沃伦与查理，莫尼什·帕伯莱不得不向巴菲特询问古伦的下落。

Morgan also shared this fascinating story of Rick Gurren. Rick Gurren invested alongside Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger in the 1960s. And the three of them were all investing in many of the same stocks and businesses, and they were just doing exceptionally well. But today, most of us only know about Warren and Charlie. Monish Pabrai had to ask Buffett what happened to Rick Gurren.

巴菲特回应说古伦当时和他们买同样的股票，但用了保证金交易。'他和我们一样聪明，只是太心急。'在1973-74年熊市中，古伦尝到了杠杆的苦果，被迫在最糟糕时刻平仓——他甚至以每股不到40美元的价格将伯克希尔股票卖回给巴菲特。如今这些股票价值约70万美元。不过古伦后来还是恢复了财务状况。

And Buffett had said that Rick was buying the same stocks that him and Charlie were, but he was doing so on margin. Buffett stated that Rick was just as smart as us, but he was in a hurry. In the nineteen seventy three, seventy four bear market, Durran experienced the impact of leverage on the downside and he started to get margin calls forcing him to sell his positions at the worst possible time. Gurren actually sold his Berkshire Hathaway shares to Buffett for under $40 a share. And those shares today trade for around $700,000 Despite these challenges, Gurren managed to recover financially in the subsequent years.

他在1965-1983年管理的投资组合最终实现了32.9%的年化复合回报率（不含费用）。而巴菲特和芒格虽然明白使用杠杆能获得更高收益，却更注重持久性。看看伯克希尔如今2760亿美元的现金储备，这家公司几乎坚不可摧。霍华德还谈及股市固有的波动性。

His investment partnership, which he managed from 1965 to 1983, it ultimately achieved an impressive annual compounded return of 32.9% excluding fees. Now Buffett and Munger on the other hand knew that they could achieve, you know, higher returns like Gurren before things went south, you know, using leverage, but they were much more focused on endurance and longevity. Just look at Berkshire Hathaway's $276,000,000,000 cash pile today. They're set up in a way where the company is virtually indestructible. And then Howard also touched on the inherent volatility of the stock market.

观察GDP增长率通常在1%-4%之间浮动，平均约2%-3%。但由于企业经营和财务杠杆的存在，企业利润波动远大于GDP波动。再加上投资者心理和债务使用因素，股价波动又远超企业利润。豪塞尔还提出观点：经济繁荣期反而会埋下下次衰退的种子。我们经历的上次大衰退和股市崩盘正是2008年金融危机。

So GDP, when you look at how much GDP grows, it tends to range anywhere from 1% growth to 4% growth and averages around 2% to 3%. But since companies have operating and financial leverage, company profits tend to fluctuate much more than how much GDP fluctuates. And then after you factor in investor psychology and the uses of debt, stock prices can fluctuate even more than corporate profits. Housel then also discussed the idea of how the lack of recessions can actually sow the seeds of a next recession. And the last big recession and big stock market crash we had was the great financial crisis.

我在想这是否会导致市场内在的脆弱性，因为我认为很多投资者可能相信大幅回调不太可能或根本不可能发生。但根据豪塞尔的观点，正是这种认为大幅回调不可能发生的信念，为下一次大幅回调埋下了种子。比如霍华德·马克斯解释道，在二月份时，人们回顾历史后声称从未出现过全国范围的抵押贷款违约潮。于是他们采取了那些恰恰会导致全国性抵押贷款违约潮的做法。多么讽刺啊。

And I wonder if this is causing inherent fragility in the markets because I think a lot of investors probably believe that a major correction just isn't likely or isn't possible. But according to Housel, I think it's the belief that major corrections aren't possible, which sows the seeds for the next major correction. For example, Howard Marks explains that in the February, people looked at history and they said that there's never been a nationwide wave of mortgage defaults. So they engaged in practices that guarantee that there would be a nationwide wave of mortgage defaults. So how ironic.

投资中也需要平衡，某种意义上说，如果你回避所有债务和任何涉及风险的事物，那么你也在回避所有获得回报的可能性。霍华德将此称为风险管理而非风险规避。关键在于找到适合你所追求回报的风险水平，你愿意承受的波动幅度，并制定符合你性格特点且能长期坚持的策略。在任何投资策略中，波动和潜在亏损本就是游戏的一部分。重要的是你会有多少亏损，亏损的严重程度，以及这些与你盈利的关系。

There's also a balance when it comes to investing in a sense that if you avoid all debt and you avoid anything that involves risk, then you're avoiding any possibility of returns. Howard refers to this as risk management rather than risk avoidance. This is finding the right level of risk that suits the returns you're looking to get, the volatility you're willing to endure, and finding a strategy that suits your temperament and allows you to stick with it for the long run. In any investing strategy, volatility and the potential for loss is really just a part of the game. What matters is how many losers you have, the severity of your losers, and how that corresponds to your winners.

既然知道亏损和波动本就是投资游戏的一部分，这有助于确保当它们不可避免地来临时我们不会感到意外。我很喜欢摩根与霍华德对话结束时强调的观点。他重申了霍华德的观点，即这些债务概念其实都是经济学基础课程的内容，非常浅显。但金融界最聪明的人却很容易忘记。当形势大好或遇到绝妙点子时，运用杠杆的想法听起来如此诱人，以至于他们完全忽视了当时根本看不到的下行风险。

Knowing that losses and volatility are simply a part of the investing game, it helps ensure that we're not surprised when it inevitably comes. And I love the point that Morgan wrapped up with during that conversation with Howard. He had reiterated Howard's point that these concepts of debt are really econ 101 and just very basic stuff. But the smartest people in finance can be very quick to forget it. When things become good or they can come across a really great idea, the idea of applying leverage, it just sounds so enticing that they just become blind to the downside risk that they really just can't see at the time.

他们相信这次会不一样。他们比所有人都聪明。也许这种做法能持续奏效一段时间，但只需要一次黑天鹅事件就能彻底摧毁过度杠杆化的人。记住目标不是要熬过普通的负面事件，而是要能经受住几乎所有可想象的事件，因为黑天鹅每十到二十年就必然会出现一次，具体周期取决于我们面对的具体情况。

They believe this time's different. They're smarter than everyone else. And maybe it works over a sustained period of time, but all it takes is that one black swan event to just wipe out a person that is way over leveraged. Remember that the goal isn't to survive the average negative event. The goal is to survive almost any event imaginable because black swans inevitably come around every ten or twenty or so years, depending on what exactly we're dealing with.

好了，以上就是本期节目分享的从摩根·豪塞尔那里学到的六个关键经验。制作这期节目非常有趣，希望你们喜欢并从中获得对自己投资工具箱有价值的内容。如果还没听过我们与摩根·豪塞尔的往期节目，我强烈推荐你去听听。绝对是本节目最受欢迎的几期之一。

All right. So that wraps up today's episode sharing the six key lessons I learned from Morgan Housel. This was a really fun one to put together, so I hope you enjoyed it and found parts of it valuable for your own investing toolkit. If you haven't tuned into our episodes with Morgan Housel, I'd encourage you to check those out. Certainly some of the most popular episodes on the show here.

今年我在第602期节目中采访过摩根·豪塞尔，聊了《一如既往》这本书。崔·洛克比曾在第351期节目中采访摩根讨论《金钱心理学》。如果想与志同道合的价值投资者建立联系，你可能会有兴趣加入我们的TIP智囊团社区。TIP智囊团是我们为私人投资者、基金经理和高净值人士量身打造的付费社区。想了解详情并加入候补名单，可以访问theinvestorspodcast.com/mastermind。

I interviewed Morgan Housel this year back on episode six zero two chatting about same as ever. And then Trey Lockerbie interviewed Morgan back on episode three fifty one chatting about the psychology of money. And if you'd like to network with like minded value investors, you may be interested in joining our TIP Mastermind community. The TIP Mastermind community is our paid community tailored for private investors, portfolio managers, and high net worth individuals. To check it out and join the waitlist, you can head to theinvestorspodcast.com/mastermind.

非常感谢大家的收听，我们下周再见。

Thanks so much for tuning in, and I hope to see you again next week.

感谢您收听TIP节目。请务必在您喜爱的播客应用上关注《我们研究亿万富翁》，不错过任何一期节目。如需获取节目笔记、文字稿或课程内容，请访问investorspodcast.com。本节目仅供娱乐，在做出任何决策前请咨询专业人士。

Thank you for listening to TIP. Make sure to follow We Study Billionaires on your favorite podcast app and never miss out on episodes. To access our show notes, transcripts, or courses, go to the investorspodcast.com. This show is for entertainment purposes only. Before making any decision, consult a professional.

本节目版权归The Investor's Podcast Network所有。未经书面许可，不得进行任何形式的转播或重播。

This show is copyrighted by The Investor's Podcast Network. Written permission must be granted before syndication or rebroadcasting.