TIP751：2025年第三季度智囊团：优步、默克与Bath & Body Works

您正在收听的是TIP。

You're listening to TIP.

我一直很期待与我的好友托比亚斯·卡莱尔和哈里·拉马坦德拉一起录制我们的《智囊团》节目。这些是我最喜欢的对话之一，因为每季度我们每人都会向小组推荐一支股票，然后我们一起探讨其看涨和看跌的理由。这绝不是单纯为我们喜欢的公司摇旗呐喊，而是真正检验我们的想法、提出尖锐问题，并发现我们可能犯错的地方。多年来，我发现这种形式不仅让我成为更好的投资者，也让我保持踏实和好奇的心态。

I always look forward to recording our Mastermind episodes with my good friends Tobias Carlisle and Hari Ramatandra. These are some of my favorite conversations because once a quarter we each bring a stock to the group, And together we explore both the bull and the bear cases. It's never about just cheerleading a company we like. It's really about testing our ideas, asking the hard questions, and seeing where we might be wrong. Over the years, I've found this format not only makes me a better investor but also keeps me grounded and curious.

我真心希望这对你也能起到同样的作用。在今天的节目中，我将推介优步——全球最大的网约车公司。这是我们许多人经常使用的服务。但当你深入研究数据时，会发现一个关于规模效应、网络效应以及该公司如何构建超越打车业务的扩展生态系统的精彩故事。托比亚斯将分享他对Bath & Body Works的看法，这是家居和个人香氛领域的品类领导者。

And I really hope it'll do the same for you. In today's episode, I'll be pitching Uber, the world's largest rod hailing company. It's a business that many of us use frequently. But when you dig into the numbers, you see there's a fascinating story about scale, networking effects, and how the company is building an expanding ecosystem well beyond just rides. Tobias is sharing his thoughts on Bath and Body Works, which is a category leader in home and personal fragrance.

这类公司可能被许多投资者忽视，但它拥有极强的品牌认知度、客户忠诚度，并产生大量自由现金流。最后，哈里的选择是默克制药——医药行业最知名的巨头之一。默克如今最著名的是其改变癌症治疗格局的肿瘤学重磅药物。但与许多制药公司一样，它也面临着关键药物专利悬崖的挑战。我们将深入探讨这对长期投资者意味着什么。

It's one of those companies that might fly under the radar for many investors, yet it has an incredibly strong brand recognition, customer loyalty, and generates a ton of free cash flow. And finally, Hari's pick is Merck, one of the biggest names in pharmaceuticals. Merck is best known today for its blockbuster oncology drug, which has changed the landscape of cancer treatment. But like many other pharma companies, there's a challenge ahead with a Lumen patent cliff. And we'll be digging into what that means for long term investors.

所以请端杯咖啡，放松心情，加入我们探讨这三家截然不同的企业。我们将分析它们的吸引力所在、需要警惕的风险，并希望能为你的投资之旅带来一些新思路。

So grab a cup of coffee, get comfortable, and join us as we dive into three very different businesses. We'll cover what makes them compelling, risks to look out for, and hopefully leave you with a few new ideas for your own investing journey.

自2014年以来，通过超过1.8亿次下载，我们研究金融市场，阅读对白手起家亿万富翁影响最深的书籍。我们助您保持信息灵通，为意外做好准备。现在有请主持人斯蒂格·布罗德森。

Since 2014 and through more than 180,000,000 downloads, we've studied the financial markets and read the books that influence self made billionaires the most. We keep you informed and prepared for the unexpected. Now for your host, Stig Brodersen.

欢迎收听《投资者播客》，我是主持人斯蒂格·布罗德森。今天和往常一样，托比和哈里也在现场。詹斯，你今天好吗？

Welcome to The Investor's Podcast. I'm your host, Stig Brodersen. Today, as always, I'm here with Toby and Hari. How are you today, Jens?

嗨，菲莉丝。见到你真好。谢谢你让我留下来。

Hi, Phyllis. Good to see you. Thanks for having me stick.

斯蒂格，是啊。见到你们俩真好。谢谢招待我们。

Stig Yeah. Good to see you both. Thanks for having us.

斯蒂格，太棒了。詹斯，我要毫不掩饰地直奔主题了。我选择的是优步，这支股票市值1900亿美元，想必听众大多都听说过。我第一次真正注意到这支股票，不是作为服务，而是作为投资标的，是在收听我的搭档丹尼尔和肖恩在《内在价值》播客中讨论并建仓的那期节目后。向你们推荐同一支股票让我有点不安，但显然还没到让我放弃的地步，所以我还是来了。

Stig Amazing. And Jens, I'm going to shamelessly, I'm just going to go straight to the pitch here. My pick is Uber, certainly a stock I think most in the audience have heard about before, dollars 190,000,000,000 in market cap. The first time the stock really came on my radar was not as a service, I should say, but as a stock worth investing in was whenever I listened to this episode that my co host, Daniel and Sean, on the Intrinsic Value podcast, whenever they did that and took a position. I feel a little uneasy about pitching the same stock to you guys, but apparently not so much that I won't do it because here we go.

但我投资的股票极少。上次买入新股票已是一年多前的事了。所以我想对我们所做的一切保持完全透明，如果我做出荒唐事（这很可能），真的希望你们能阻止我。总之，我的静默期要到9月22日才结束。因此郑重声明：我目前没有持仓。

But I invest in so few stocks. It's more than a year ago since I last bought a new stock. So I want to be very transparent about everything that we do and I really want you to save me if I do something ridiculous, which I probably will. But anyways, I have a blackout period until September 22. And so with full disclaimers, I'm going to say I don't have a position.

TIP上有些人有持仓，但我个人没有，且在9月22日前不能投资。按当前91美元的价格，我可能会建立1%的仓位。我坚信未来十年这将实现两位数复合增长——究竟是10%还是20%，时间会证明。我们将在估值环节深入讨论。斯蒂格，但你可能在想：既然确信收益率在10%-20%之间，为何初始仓位只有1%？

Some here on TIP have, but I don't have a position myself and I can't invest before September 22. I probably would take a position, a 1% position here at today's price of $91 I strongly believe that this is a double digit compound over the next decade. Now, whether it's a double digit as in 10% or as in 20%, time will tell. We're going to discuss a lot more about that in the valuation segment. Stig But you might also be thinking, if you really have such a high conviction that it's anywhere between 1020%, why only a 1% startup position?

这确实是因为我还没聪明到能直接建立10%的标准仓位。我需要先持有股票，通过实践学习。真希望自己能聪明到一步到位，但每次这么做似乎都会吃亏。

It's really because I'm just not smart enough to scale to a full position of which for me is 10%. I need to first own the stock. Learn differently whenever I own a stock, I guess. I wish I was smart enough to do it just right out of the gate, just go full position. Every time I do that, it seems like I just get burned.

我已经不再这样做了。斯蒂格，另外我也担心陷入TIP的信息茧房。所以真心希望你们能告诉我优步为何是糟糕的投资。斯蒂格，我第一次接触优步是2014年伯克希尔年会上，那场景至今历历在目。

I've stopped doing it. Stig And then I also kind of feel like I run this risk of being stuck in this TIP echo chamber. So I really hope that you'll tell me why Uber is a terrible investment. Stig So the first interaction I had with Uber was at the Berkshire meeting in 2014. And I remember it vividly.

我当时在康瑟尔布拉夫斯，正和我的联合创始人普雷斯顿一起在大厅里想办法怎么去奥马哈。他向我介绍了这家叫Uber的神奇新公司，现在听起来可能很可笑，但当时我震惊了，因为他给我看了这个能实时追踪车辆位置的应用程序。在2014年这还是很新奇的事。那次会面对我来说很特别，还有个原因——既然哈里也在线上，我就提一下——正是在那次会面中，坐在普雷斯顿旁边的哈里首次萌生了TIP项目的构想。

I was in Council Bluffs and we were trying to figure out how to get to Omaha. And I was standing in the lobby together with my co founder Preston and he told me about this amazing new company called Uber, which probably sounds ridiculous whenever you hear it now, but I was blown away because he showed me this app and then you could track where the car was. It was a normal thing in 2014. To me, there was something very special about the meeting, also because I'm just going to mention this because Harry here is on the call. It was from that meeting when Harry actually sat next to Preston out of Omaha and conceived the idea of TIP in the first place.

总之这只是个插曲。作为用户，我早就知道Uber，相信我们节目的很多听众也是。但我一直对投资亏损企业抱有强烈的抵触——

Stig So anyways, and so it was just a side story. So of course, as a customer, I've known Uber for a long time, as I'm sure a lot of listeners here of our show, and I always had a really thirty:fifty hard

投资那些不盈利的公司让我很纠结。

time investing in companies that were unprofitable.

记得我们节目多年前讨论亚马逊时，尽管它已家喻户晓却仍在烧钱。我们当时感叹：天啊，谁会为年亏数十亿的公司买单？我自诩价值投资者（或许不是），现在却要推介Uber。作为受巴菲特-芒格思想熏陶的人，投资长期亏损的Uber确实艰难。但有趣的是，这些企业最终都实现了盈利——虽非突然，却水到渠成。

I remember that we've talked here on the show about this company called Amazon many, many years ago, even whenever people knew Amazon but they were still burning cash. We were like, Phew, how much one:thirty money are you really willing to pay for a company that loses billions? I'd like to think I'm a value investor, perhaps I'm not, now pitching Uber. But for someone who is sort of like being brought up at the church of Buffett and Munger, I feel it's been very difficult for me to invest in companies that are unprofitable, and Uber has been unprofitable for the longest time. Stig So one of the things that's interesting then is that you then have these businesses that all of a I wouldn't say called all of a sudden, but they eventually turn profitable.

这让我更容易下定决心。当然市盈率可能仍高得离谱——假设利润1美元而市值10亿，表面看市盈率是10亿倍（实际并非如此）。但希望本次讨论能说服各位，或纠正我的认知，真正剖析Uber的内在价值。

And so that just makes it a little bit easier for me to make the plunge. But of course, the multiples can still look absolutely ridiculous. Simplistically, if you have a $1 profit and there's a market cap of a billion dollars, it looks like the multiple is a billion. That's obviously not the case, thirty:fifty but some of the multiples, if you just at a glance look at Uber, they look absolutely ridiculous. But what I hope that I can convince you, or even better be told that I'm wrong, throughout this discussion is really to look under the hood and see what's there.

很大程度上，并非因拐点将至，而是Uber的体量（近1900亿市值）让我却步。我不禁思考：它的天花板在哪里？这让我想起投资Alphabet时的感受（它也是Pits持仓股）。2018年5月伯克希尔大会前，我建仓了Alphabet——

Stig To a large extent, not necessarily because of the inflection point, but I also find it difficult to invest in a company at the size of Uber. At least it's 190,000,000,000 bargain cap. So a part of me is thinking, Oh, how long can it How big can it get? And I almost have the same feeling as I had whenever it come to Alphabet, which is another stock of Pits here. I took a position back in May 2018, just before Berkshire.

我所有持仓都与伯克希尔有渊源。当时赴会途中研究Alphabet，尽管2018年它已众所周知，但7000多亿市值仍让我觉得成长空间巨大。如今它已成为万亿美元巨头，且仍保持高速增长态势。

All my positions have this thing about Berkshire. Anyways, I was on my way to Berkshire and I've been looking at this company, Alphabet, and not that people didn't know the company in 2018, but it looked so big. The market cap for more than $700,000,000,000 and it just seemed to have such a long runway of growth and I bought into it. Since then, now today it's a multi trillion dollar company. It still looks like it can grow at really high rates for a very long time.

斯蒂格 正是带着这种心态，我审视优步时认为，它很可能在下一个十年内达到万亿美元市值。虽然存在让它增速更快的充分理由，但若要在十年内实现万亿目标，意味着年复合增长率需达到17.5%（其他条件不变）。斯蒂格 言归正传，我们来聊聊业务。优步有三大板块：出行、外卖和货运，今天重点讨论前两项。

Stig And so it's also with that mindset that I look at Uber and I think, Well, this could probably get to a trillion dollars within the next let's just say next decade. I think there are good reasons why it can go a lot faster, but if it will go to a trillion dollar in the next decade, we're talking about a CAGR of 17.5%, everything else equal. Stig Anyways, let's talk more about the business. So there are three segments here of Uber, mobility, delivery, and freight. It's really the two form I want to talk about.

出行板块占总营收58%和调整后息税折旧摊销前利润的69%。当人们想到优步时，最先浮现的通常就是这个将乘客从A点运至B点的业务。外卖板块占营收32%（调整后数据为31%）

Mobility, 58% of revenue and 69% adjusted EBITDA. Mobility segment, that's what most people think about probably whenever they think about Uber. That is delivering people from point A to point B. Then they have the delivery segment, which is 32% of revenue or 31% of adjusted one:thirty

关于调整后EBITDA这点简直让我抓狂，不过稍后在做推介时会详细说明。

EBITDA. I'll get to this point about adjusted EBITDA that absolutely drives me crazy, but I'll get to that later here in this pitch.

外卖业务90%是食品配送，但也包含杂货等其他品类。斯蒂格 最后是仅占营收10%的货运板块，目前尚未盈利，甚至传闻将被出售，我们暂且搁置不谈。斯蒂格 有时最意想不到的细节会让你重新审视公司——对我而言，正是其嵌入式广告业务引起了注意。

That is mainly food. 90% of what's in the delivery segment is food, but but they also do other things. Have some groceries, they have different things in that unit. Stig And then the last segment, it's just 10% of revenue, they don't really make any money, they're even chatter about selling it off, so let's just disregard that for the time being. Stig And so it's sometimes the weirdest things that makes you look closer at a company and for whatever reason, it was really the embedded the advertising business that really drew my attention to Uber.

某些股票总会有让你顿悟的闪光点。长期关注优步的我，当了解到其广告业务潜力、用户数据储备及精准投放能力时，瞬间明白了其价值。需要说明的是，广告目前仅占营收3%，但利润率远高于现有业务。在AI时代，赢家似乎分两类：掌握核心技术的科技巨头，以及拥有海量数据赋能的企业。

And sometimes there's just something about a stock that just clicks. And for whatever reason, knowing Uber for the longest time, whenever I heard about this idea of advertising and how much data they really have for you and how they can target you with advertising, that was really what made it click for me. And I should say for the record, we are only talking about three percent of revenue whenever it comes to advertising. Obviously, it's a lot higher margin business than the current business that they have, but there is thirty:fifty something And it really seems like in this world of AI, there seem to be two types of winners. There are the winners who own this technology, such as the big tech companies, but then they also have the big enablers of big data.

例如Spotify、YouTube（虽属Alphabet旗下），或是优步这类掌握海量用户数据的公司。斯蒂格 正如你所想，这些数据对广告商而言极具价值。

It could be Spotify, that's one example. Could it be a company like YouTube? I know it's owned by Alphabet. Or a company like Uber, because they have so much data about the users. And Stig as you can imagine, the value of that data is really valuable for advertisers too.

斯蒂格 现在谈谈竞争优势与竞争对手。网络效应极其强大——听众们都知道优步是全球化企业，尽管某些市场竞争激烈，但整体而言其全球网络效应显著。不过还需注意

Stig So let's talk a bit about the competitive advantage in some of the competitors. The networking effects is just really, really strong. Uber, as our listeners would know, that it's just a global company. Are certain markets where it's very difficult for them to compete, but by and large it's a global company. And the networking effects are strong, but it's also important to understand thirty:fifty

这是一个供应驱动的网络效应，也是一个双边市场。

that it's a supply driven networking effect and it's a two sided marketplace.

每当我提到供应驱动时，实际上你需要达到司机数量的临界点才有意义，你需要先有这些供应，然后才会逐渐产生需求。我知道这听起来有点反常，因为我们被教导需求驱动一切。但我认为对于像优步这样的公司，实际上是供应在驱动，这本身就是一种有趣的动态。所以，我几乎是在丹麦，柏林有剩余产能对我没什么帮助。不，我需要的是就在这里。

Whenever I say supply driven, you really need a critical mass of drivers before it makes sense, and you need those first, and then it sort of creates the demand. I know it sort of sounds off because we're taught that demand drives everything. I would argue that for a company like Uber, actually supply that's driving, which is an interesting dynamic in itself. So being based in almost Denmark, it's not super helpful for me that if there is excess capacity in Berlin. No, I need it right here.

对于双边市场来说，一旦你达到规模，要颠覆这个业务真的非常非常困难。你需要烧很多钱才能达到那个位置。所以我倾向于认为优步在品牌上确实有竞争优势，尽管有很多情况下优步至少可以说不是一个表现良好的公司，但当你到不同的公司旅行时，这是一个你会知道的品牌，是你的首选。我几乎想说它相当于星巴克或麦当劳。当你国际旅行时，它们可能没有最好的食物或咖啡，但有一个30:50的最低标准。

And doing that and generally for two sided marketplaces, it's just a really, really difficult business to disrupt once you have scale. You need to burn a lot of cash to get to that spot. So I'm inclined to say that Uber does have a competitive advantage in the brand, even though there's certainly been a lot of cases where Uber hasn't been coming off as a wonderful company to say the least, but it is very much so that whenever you travel in different companies, that is a brand that you would know, that is your go to. Stig I'm almost inclined to say it's equivalent to a Starbucks or a McDonald's. Whenever you travel internationally, they probably don't have the best food or coffee, but there is a certain thirty:fifty minimum standard.

有WiFi。更重要的是，可能有一个干净的厕所。我知道这在优步身上并不完全适用，但品牌确实有一定的知名度。30:50但我认为旅行的比喻，尽管我们大多数人会在国内使用优步，我认为它说明了优步的一些竞争优势。所以，如果我能在这里使用这个比喻，你在哪里得到——这是一个反问，我不是在为难你们——在意大利哪里得到最差的服务和最差的食物？

There's WiFi. Even more importantly, this might be a clean toilet. I know it doesn't really translate on a one to one basis when it comes to Uber, but there's certainly a name recognition to the brand. Thirty:fifty But I do think the travel metaphor, even though that most of us would use Uber domestically, I think it speaks to some of the competitive advantages with Uber. So if I can use that metaphor here, where do you get the this is a rhetorical question, I'm not putting you gents on the spot where do you get the worst service and the worst food in Italy?

不，实际上，让我不要用反问句。让我真的问你们一个有点棘手的问题。在整个意大利，你在哪里得到最差的食物和最差的服务？

No. Actually, let me not make a rhetorical question. Let me actually ask you just a bit of a jelly spot. Where do you get the worst food and and worst service at all in all of Italy?

我从未去过意大利，所以我无法回答这个问题。

I've never been to Italy, so I can't I can't answer that question.

是的。我可以告诉你在硅谷更糟的意大利食物，甚至不知道吃什么。

Yeah. I can tell you worse Italian food in Silicon Valley without knowing to eat.

好吧。我要说的是，在里亚托桥旁边有一家披萨店，简直糟糕透顶。从经济学角度看，为什么食物和服务这么差？嗯，某种程度上是因为他们知道你不会再来，而且他们几乎拥有垄断权，因为店就在那里，你不想走到下一家餐厅，而且你马上就要离开了。

Stig All right. So I will say that is a pizza place right next to the Ponte Di Rialto. It's absolutely terrible. So from an economic lens, why is the food and service terrible? Well, it's kind of terrible because they know you're not going to come back and they more or less have monopoly power because it's there and you don't want to walk to the next restaurant and you're about to leave.

总之，食物和服务都低于标准，你还被宰了。现在，我们来谈谈优步。优步彻底改变了传统出租车行业的游戏规则。就像威尼斯的食物一样，质量差还价格高。

Anyways, subpar food, service, you're overcharged. Stig Now, let's talk about Uber. Uber changed the game from the whole legacy taxi business. It was just like the food in Venice. It would be bad and it would be overpriced.

你给优步司机评分，他有动力好好对待你，同时他也会给你评分，因为如果你的评分低于某个水平，就没有司机愿意接你。所以这就像一个双向市场，迫使双方都保持体面的行为。我忍不住要讲讲亚马逊的故事。杰夫·贝索斯——我可能该提一下他刚在威尼斯结婚——总之，这位亚马逊的早期支持者曾因网站未删除电池使用信息而 famously 感到沮丧。

You rate your Uber driver, he has an incentive to treat you well, and he also rates you because if you have below a certain rating, no driver wants to pick you up. And so it's almost like you have this two sided marketplace where you're enforced to have decent behavior. And I can't help but tell the story about Amazon. Jeff Bezos, who I should probably mention just as He just got married in Venice. Anyways, but Jeff Bezos, an early Amazon backer, famously was frustrated that they didn't delete the battery use on their site.

贝索斯说，不不不，这些信息是用来帮助顾客的。我非常认同优步也在发生同样的事情。它们的存在是为了提供信息并奖励正确的行为。优步的看涨理由——或许也该提一下爱彼迎——最初在于你能获得收益却无需承担资本支出。

And Bezos said, No, no, no. The use are there to help the customers. And I very much see the same thing happening with Uber. They're there to inform you and to reward the right behavior. Thirty:thirty The bull case for Uber, and I probably should say Airbnb, also was original that you got the upside but without the CapEx.

也就是说，你能拥有车队和酒店，却不用承担所有费用。当然，对优步而言，可以说情况依然如此，但当你查看他们的财务报表时，你会惊呼，‘天哪，利润率看起来太低了！怎么回事？’实际上，他们目前严重盈利不足，但拥有巨大的运营杠杆。所以接下来你会看到，他们并不需要太多额外的——姑且称之为资本支出。

Meaning that you get the fleet of cars thirty:thirty and the hotels but without all the expenses. Of course, for Uber you can say that's still the case, but then you look at their financial statements and you're like, Oh my God, it looks like they're so low margins. What's going on? Stig Really what's happening is that they are vastly under earning and they have a lot of operational leverage. So what you're going to see now is that they don't need a lot of extra, let's call it CapEx in this case.

这也取决于你如何定义科技公司的资本支出，但利润率将会显著扩大。我想讨论的另一个竞争优势或许是物流。你可能会认为优步只是一家将人或食物从A点运到B点的公司，觉得这应该不难。但在开始录音前，托比和我聊到Shopify，他们在物流上 famously 失败，现在正使用最大竞争对手亚马逊的物流服务。

It also depends on how you define CapEx, I should say, for a tech company, but margins are going to widen quite dramatically. Stig Another competitive advantage I want to talk about is perhaps we should just stop with logistics. You might think about Uber as a company that just moves something, whether it's a person or whether it's food, from point A to point B and saying that shouldn't be that hard. Stig Well, just before we hit record, Toby and I were talking about Shopify. They have famously failed on logistics and now they're using their biggest competitors, at Amazon for the logistics.

物流极其困难，尽管它看起来像是件随机或相对简单的事，但事实绝非如此。每当谈到亚马逊，虽然我知道我有点东拉西扯，但有人会说他们的秘诀在于那个出色的电商网站。实际上，这个名为亚马逊的绝妙生意，很大一部分在于物流。要在全球范围内规模化运作真的非常非常难。关于风险和估值，我有一大段要讲，但在那之前，我感觉我已经絮叨太久了。

It's incredibly difficult to do logistics, even though it might seem like a somewhat random thing to do or a relatively easy thing to do, but it very much is not the case. Stig And I would argue whenever it comes to Amazon, and I know I'm all over the place here, but some would say, Oh, the secret sauce they have is this wonderful e commerce website. It's really, big part of that wonderful, wonderful business called Amazon is logistics. It's just really, really hard to do globally at scale. Stig So I have a long segment here about risks and valuation, but before we get to that, I feel I've been rambling for such a long time.

所以我想把话题转回给你，Jens，看看你有什么意见或担忧。

So I want to throw back over to you, Jens, for any comments or concerns.

有趣的大错误。尤其是Uber，正如我所说，这是那种我们都很熟悉产品的‘拥抱型’投资。

Interesting big mistake. Uber especially, as I said, it's one of those cuddle but kind of investments where we are all very familiar with the product.

是的，我同意。这很有趣，因为我们经常使用这个产品，估值才是我感兴趣想听的部分。

Yeah. I agree. It's interesting because we use the product so much, it's the the valuation is the is the thing that I'm interested to hear.

对，我有几点关于Uber可能面临的逆风的看法，但也许我可以等你完成你的推介后再谈。

Yeah. I had, like, in a couple of points about headwinds that Uber might be facing, but maybe I can wait till you complete your pitch.

好的。那么，让我们谈谈房间里的大象——必须讨论自动驾驶汽车（AVs）。每次提到Uber时这个话题都会出现，而且理由充分。最近我听了许多财报电话会议，其中有不同的周期。

Okay. So so let's talk about the elephant in the room. We have to talk about AVs. It always comes up whenever you bring up Uber and for good reason. So I go through a lot of earnings calls these days and there are different cycles.

有些周期里大家都在谈论关税，有些周期里大家都在谈论AI，还有些周期里大家同时讨论这两件事。现在有这么多CEO，他们都在说AI实际上是对业务的顺风而非逆风。Uber也不例外，在谈到AI和AV（这两者虽不完全相同但有大量重叠）时也是如此。

Are cycles and everyone talks about tariffs. And then there are cycles and everyone talks about AI. And then there are cycles where everyone talks about both things, guess. You have so many CEOs out there and all of them talk about how AI is actually a tailwind for a business and not a headwind. Uber is no different, and they're also no different whenever it comes to AI and then AV, which is not necessarily the same but has a lot of overlap.

但我认为AVs是顺风，这可能听起来有点奇怪。我也要第一个承认，我没有忽视像Alphabet或甚至亚马逊（这个我稍后可能会提到）这样的公司可能成为竞争对手。对特斯拉倒不太担心，但那是另一条线。你看看Waymo这样的公司，他们现在在某些城市与Uber合作，但在其他城市又与Uber竞争，还有自己的打车应用，而且目前尚未盈利。

But I would argue that AVs are a tailwind and it probably sounds a little bit odd. And I would also be the first to say, I don't neglect that companies like Alphabet or perhaps even Amazon, which I may get to later, could be competitors. Less worried about Tesla, but that's sort of another avenue. You look at a company like Waymo and you're like, Waymo right now is partnering with Uber in some cities, but they're also competing with Uber in other cities and they have their own ride hailing app. And it's not profitable right now.

我认为大多数人可能预期自动驾驶汽车最终会盈利。只是目前技术成本尚未达到盈利点。但它们确实在收集大量数据，且人们对其自建车队时的运营模式存在担忧。斯蒂格，我想说的是，优步的优势之一在于其出色的供需匹配能力——供给端极其重要且高度灵活。他们能随时调度司机以创造更多收益。

I think most people probably expect eventually AVs will be profitable. It's just the technology is not at a price right now where it is profitable. But certainly they're collecting a lot of data and there are some concerns about what happens whenever they would put out their own fleet. Stig I would probably say that the way One of the advantages of Uber is that they do a really good job of utilizing the supply and the supply is just really, really important and they have a very flexible supply. So they can call in drivers whenever they can make more money and then they can create that.

斯蒂格，正如你所知，无论是网约车还是优食外卖，需求并非全天恒定。若大量制造自动驾驶汽车，它们需要持续维护成本；而调用第三方车队则具有不同的成本结构。这正是优步的另一优势：由于客运与货运存在共性，他们能让司机每小时收入提升30%-50%，从而实现收益最大化。

Stig And as you can probably imagine on the demand side for ride hailing, for example, or for Uber Eats, it's not constant throughout the day. And so if you manufacture a lot of AVs, they're there all the time and you have to pay for that all the time. Whereas if you tap into a fleet of cars that you don't own, it comes at a different cost profile. And so that's also one of the advantages that Uber has where Because delivering people and delivering food to some extent is somewhat similar, they can thirty:fifty increase every hour that the driver put in and maximize the earnings that way. And so that's most certainly a part of it.

另一个关键在于：即便拥有自动驾驶汽车，真正的核心竞争力仍是算法技术。深入研究这套实时匹配司机与乘客的算法后，你会发现其复杂程度令人惊叹——当乘客被送至郊区后如何安排下一单？需考虑的因素呈指数级增长。

Another part of it is that even if you have manufactured AVs, really the secret sauce is in the magic technology. The more you dive into what goes into that algorithm, it's just incredible, incredible difficult to match, say a driver and then a person who wants to ride with that person in real time. There are so many factors that once you start digging, but then what if that person is taken to the suburbs? What's the next thing it could be? What's the next ride?

定价策略如何制定？如何确保接单后最快出发？如何将取消订单（最差体验）风险降至最低？会员与非会员的优先级如何划分？一旦打开这个潘多拉魔盒，你会发现变量多到疯狂。斯蒂格，恕我直言（虽然可能有偏见），若掌握自动驾驶技术，与优步合作远比对抗更明智。

What should the cost be? How can we make sure that once it's taken that it goes out as quickly as possible, that there is the lowest risk of cancellation, which is the worst experience? How do we make sure we prioritize people who are a member and then who are not a member? There are so many factors that once you open that Pandora's box, it's just absolutely crazy how much. And so Stig I would argue, and I'm probably super biased here, but I would argue that if you have the AV technology, it makes more sense for you to team up with Uber rather than compete with them.

或许Alphabet的看法不同，你也可以说Alphabet确实有现金储备来自己创建那个双边市场，至少在特定领域是这样。谁知道呢？但这确实值得关注。我不确定是否因为多年来听财报电话会议，听他们谈论自动驾驶汽车如何成为顺风，而过于偏颇。现在所有CEO都有动机这么说。

Perhaps Alphabet doesn't look at it the same way, and you can also say that Alphabet does have a cash reserve to create that two sided marketplace themselves, or at least in certain areas. Who knows? But it certainly is something to be concerned about. I don't know if I'm too biased from listening to now years of or going through years of earnings transcript where they talk about how much AVs are a tailwind. All CEOs right now have an incentive to say that.

Stig，我总体上认为监管可能会成为逆风，或者至少存在这种风险。我认为这也取决于你所在的位置，可能影响因素不同。我知道如果在美国，整个保险部分会受到很多关注。确实，我们之前讨论过运营杠杆。Uber有很大的运营杠杆，但在保险方面他们做得不好，因为这是由各州分别监管的。

Stig I would generally say that regulation is probably going to be a headwind or there's certainly a risk that it's going to be a headwind. I think also depends on where you're based, probably what factors into that. I know that if you're based in The States, the whole insurance piece get a lot of attention. It is true, you look at We talked about operational leverage before. Uber has a lot of operational leverage, but the one thing where they don't do a good job of reducing that is whenever it comes to insurance, and it's regulating by each state.

所以他们实际上在资产负债表上有自保条款。除非能获得合适的费率，否则他们就自保，因为否则成本太高。Stig，但我要说在北美以外，我能理解为什么会有一些监管逆风。例如，在丹麦，我们曾经有Uber很长时间，或者说很久以前，后来被工会赶出去，然后又回来了。所以这不是讨论‘哦，这对乘客是更好的服务吗？’的问题。

So they actually have a provision on the balance sheet where they're self insured. Unless I can get the right rates, they are self insuring because otherwise it's just too expensive. Stig But I would say that outside of North America, I can see why there are some regulatory headwinds. Is, for example, and very anecdotally in Denmark, we used to have Uber for the longest time or no, a long time ago, and then they got kicked out by the union and then they came back. So it's not a discussion of, Oh, is this a better service for passengers?

问题并不完全在于此。更多的是关于它与工会和监管如何协同运作？大多数国家普遍存在倾向于扶持本土领军企业的趋势。每当谈及电子商务，几个例子便浮现在脑海。看看中国、印度、日本，你可能会问，为什么亚马逊在这些国家没有更大的市场份额？

That's not so much it. It's more a question of how does it work with unions and regulation? And so there is generally a tendency in most countries to favor local champions. A few examples come to mind whenever it comes to e commerce. You look at China, India, Japan, you might say, Why is Amazon not bigger in those countries?

这三个国家都有本土的行业巨头。情况并无太大不同，比如当优步试图在东南亚竞争时，最终不得不放弃。2018年他们退出了东南亚八国市场，出售了业务，换取Grab的股份，但后来股份也被稀释了。作为外国企业，即便你的产品在各方面都更胜一筹，与本土现有企业竞争仍十分困难。监管机构，尤其是那些谋求连任的政客，未必会这么认为。

Well, those three countries have local champions. It's not too different, for example, whenever Uber tried to compete in Southeast Asia, Uber had to give up. They exited eight countries in Southeast Asia in 2018, and then sold the operation, then they got shares in Grab, but it has later been diluted. But it's difficult as a foreign company to compete with the incumbents, even if your product is better for all intents and purposes. That is not necessarily how regulators think about it, especially if they're politicians who want to be elected or re elected.

这些本土企业确实雇佣了大量员工，提供最低工资、福利和各种保障。而外国公司进入零工经济雇佣本地工人，往往不太受欢迎。这些只是我想强调的部分风险。Hari，我不确定这是否是你想探讨的方向。

They do employ a lot of people and you employ a lot of people who like to get minimum wages, perks, different types of protection, and it's not always well received that a foreign company comes in and hire local workers in the gig economy. So those are just some of the risks I want to highlight. I don't know if that was what you were getting at, Hari.

不。Stig，我觉得你基本触及了我想强调的点。但这是个非常有趣的选择，Stig。当前形势下，不仅是优步，任何公司都很难确定发展方向，因为平台经济正在剧变。这正是我们所处的有趣时代。

No. I think you kind of touched upon what I wanted to highlight, Stig. But what a very interesting pick, Stig. And it's very hard because not just Uber but any company right now, it's very hard to be certain because the platform is changing. That is the interesting times we are in.

这与互联网时代极为相似——许多老牌企业被颠覆，像微软这样历经波折却最终繁荣的公司。现在很难预测优步的结局，因为它本身已成为既得利益者。他们目前的轻资产商业模式曾是成功的推手，不像其他需要投资厂房设备扩张的企业。

It's very similar to the internet era when lot of incumbents got disrupted and some thrive like Microsoft, but with lot of trouble in between. Now it's very hard to know where Uber will land in this because Uber is now one of the incumbents. They have a current business model which is capital light. I think that's what propelled their success that they were capital light unlike other companies where if you want to expand you have to invest in plants and equipments or vehicles. They didn't have to.

他们只需通过城市网络扩张就能攻城略地，在多数城市建立了近乎垄断的地位。这是他们的优势。但随着AI发展，这种模式本身可能面临挑战。不知道你们是否体验过Waymo的自动驾驶服务？

They could just expand by expanding their network city by city. And they have conquered city by city and established their near monopoly in most cities. So that's their strength. But with AI, that model itself might come to a question. I don't know if you have taken a ride in Waymo.

你们有人试过Waymo吗？

Have you guys tried Waymo?

是啊。我尝试过两次预约，但只有四个座位，而我家有五口人。所以在旧金山我没能成功，到了洛杉矶我又超出服务范围。所以至今还没体验过，不过我很想试试。

Yeah. I tried to catch it twice, but, there's only four seats, and I've got a family of five. So I couldn't catch it in San Francisco, and then I'm outside the the boundary in Los Angeles. So I haven't actually managed to, but I would like to.

我...我还没试过。体验如何，哈里？

I I haven't. How is it, Hari?

说实话，这确实是个无比流畅的体验。我在旧金山试过，它甚至会逐步指引你当前位置和车辆停靠点。上车后系统能自动识别用户。

I mean, it is it is a really, really seamless experience. I really liked it. I've tried it in San Francisco. It even provides step by step direction of where you are, where the car is parked. Once you're in, it recognizes you.

如果你有历史记录，它还会播放你最喜欢的音乐。整个体验就像置身未来。第一次尝试时我就觉得，旧金山正在复兴，因为这完全就是未来之城的感觉，行程流畅得不可思议。现在服务正向其他城市扩展，而这正是Uber面临的风险所在。

It even turns on a music that's your favorite if you have a past history. So it's it feels like you're in the future. And for the first time when I tried that, I felt, okay. San Francisco is coming back because it felt like the city of the future, and the ride is really seamless. They're expanding now to other cities, and that is where the risk lies for Uber.

如果特斯拉也介入这个领域——他们好像在奥斯汀试点——一旦成功，配合特斯拉最新的全自动驾驶系统（我试过，甚至能自动泊车），这些拥有雄厚资源的公司完全能建立起强大的品牌影响力。

If Tesla also tries this, they I think they're piloting in Austin, and if they're successful, the latest FSD in Tesla is really good. I tried it. It can even park itself. So that was amazing. When these companies are coming in, they have the resources to build that brand presence as well.

这对Uber构成挑战，因为Uber依赖众多小型供应商。就像波特五力模型说的，分散的供应商本应让你占据优势。但我和Uber司机聊天时（我总是主动和他们交谈了解情况），发现很多人都在苦苦挣扎。

That becomes a challenge for Uber because now Uber is reliant on multiple small vendors or suppliers. Like, to Porter Forces, like, you know, if you have distributed suppliers, you have a you have the strength. You have the advantage over them. And I when I talk to Uber drivers, I always strike a conversation with Uber drivers to see how they're feeling. Many of them are hurting.

其实看着挺心酸的。有次我从家去旧金山，司机问我这单付了多少钱。当我得知到他账户的金额少得可怜，而Uber收取了高额平台费和各类费用时非常震惊。Uber之所以能这样，正是因为它掌控着大量分散的司机供应商。但想象一下，如果特斯拉或谷歌这样的公司用无人驾驶车队运营，成本将远低于人工驾驶。

Actually, it's a sad thing to see because one of them was asking me how much are you paying for this ride when I was going to San Francisco from my home. And I was shocked to know he was barely getting any much money to his account. And Uber was charging quite a bit of all the search charge and everything it was keeping for itself. So that power Uber has now because there are so many small suppliers to Uber, and these are these drivers. But imagine a company like Tesla or Google who have a fleet of robotaxi who can operate at much lower cost than having a driver.

即便他们与优步合作，相比小型司机，他们对优步拥有更大的议价能力。这是另一个风险。第三个是转换成本，就像我的经历——我只需下载Waymo应用，就能使用其服务。这对我个人而言构成了显著的转换成本。

Even if they work with Uber, they have more leverage over Uber than the small drivers. That's the other risk. The third one is switching cost like how I did. I just downloaded a Waymo app, and I just took Waymo. It started big switching cost for me personally.

优步在企业市场占据重要地位，但即便如此，我认为像谷歌这样怀揣通过Google Cloud等产品进军企业市场雄心的公司，将这项服务与其企业服务捆绑提供并非难事。最后在无人驾驶出租车领域，安全问题反而次要——没有司机意味着无需评价司机。我看到许多企业构建的技术优势（如司机评价体系）在无人驾驶时代都将荡然无存。

Uber has a big presence in enterprise, But even there, I think it's not easy for somebody like it's not difficult, sorry, for somebody like Google who has this ambition of getting into enterprise market with their Google Cloud whatnot, offering this another service along with their Google enterprise services for companies. So those things and then finally, with the robotaxi, of course, safety is of a less concern. You don't have a driver, so you don't have to worry about rating the driver. So I see these patterns where a lot of businesses, they build a lot of these technologies that that are really their competitive advantages, like reviews of drivers and all that stuff. And it's all gone in the era of robotaxis.

不再需要评价体系了。这可能让优步管理层措手不及——谷歌或特斯拉凭什么要屈从优步？Waymo已推出独立应用，特斯拉品牌影响力巨大。

There is no reviews required anymore. So it might catch Uber management off guard because why would Google or Tesla be subservient to Uber? Waymo has already launched. They have their own app. Tesla has such a big brand presence.

它们能轻易占领大片市场。关键的是，优步不像脸书那样网络效应能跨越地域限制——必须逐城攻克。其网络效应仅限单城，这种供需生态在许多关于优步的书籍和分析中都有详述。

All they can easily command, a big market. And more importantly, think Uber is not like Facebook where the network effect transcends geographical locations. They have to win city by city. The network effect is only within the city. The demand and supply, that entire ecosystem, and that's well documented in many books and analysis of Uber.

他们至今仍需逐城争夺，比如在印度许多城市，本土品牌Ola就比优步更受欢迎。由于先发优势和对本地市场的理解，优步未能取胜。当然优步也进驻了许多城市，但不像某些行业——在某地成功就能辐射周边，因为网约车主要用于市内通勤而非城际出行。

They had to go and win city by city and even now in many cities like in India for example, Ola is very popular in many cities. Uber couldn't win those cities because Ola had a, Ola is an Indian brand, very similar to Uber, but there are a lot of head start over Uber. And for various reasons they could understand certain cities better than Uber. Of course, Uber is also there in many cities, but it's not like once you win in one area that also helps in other area because most of the time when we are taking Uber, it's for local commute, not intercity. So it doesn't matter to me.

我会随意选择Lyft、优步或其他服务。若Waymo或特斯拉进入市场...这就是我看到的另一重风险。不认为优步无法应对，但逆风确实存在。

I will just go with Lyft or Uber or anything else. And if Waymo is there, if Tesla is there. So that is the other risk that I see. And how Uber will navigate this, I'm not saying they'll not be able to, but I'm saying there are headwinds.

我们稍事休息，听听今日赞助商的信息。

Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors.

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原因有二：首先，Anchor Watch是伦敦劳合社的承保持有人，这意味着他们直接签发保单而非仅仅购买保险；其次，Anchor Watch的三叉戟金库是业内最顶尖的多重签名托管方案，通过分布式架构、可定制设置及时间锁保护，能满足基金、企业金库乃至个人用户的多样化需求，同时也是比特币遗产规划的完美解决方案。

There's two reasons. First, Anchor Watch is Lloyd's of London cover holder, which means they're actually writing the insurance, not just buying it. The second is Anchor Watch's Trident Vault is simply the best multisig custody solution in the industry, so your Bitcoin is safer. It's distributed, customizable, and protected by time locks, so it meets the needs of many types of customers. From funds to business treasuries to individuals, it's ideal for Bitcoin inheritance too.

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这份报告是我本人订阅并从中获益良多的刊物。现在即可免费注册financialfreedomreport.org（重复：financialfreedomreport.org）。真正的聪明投资者不只盯着美联储，他们洞察全球动向。

This is a report that I'm personally subscribed to and learn a ton from. Sign up for free at financialfreedomreport.org. That's financialfreedomreport.org. Smart investors don't just watch the Fed. They watch the world.

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Stig 好的，回到节目。Stig 是的，Harry，我认为你提出了一些非常棒的观点，这些确实是风险。那么我会如何回应呢？每当我尝试计算时，显然这些都是疯狂的假设，因为我们不知道成本会是多少。目前，特斯拉或Waymo这样做在经济上并不可行。

Stig All right, back to the show. Stig Yeah, think you bring up some really great points, Harry, and that certainly are risks. And so how would I respond to that? I mean, whenever I try to do the math, and obviously all of these are crazy assumptions because we don't know what the cost is going to be. Right now, it's not financially feasible for Tesla or Waymo to do that.

这实在太昂贵了，但问题是技术何时会变得如此便宜，以至于它们会考虑抢走Uber的生意。我在想的是，他们能否做到和Uber一样便宜？利润率是否会被压低？是否会爆发价格战？如果是，谁会胜出？

It's just too expensive, but there's a question of time before before the technology would be so cheap that they are going to considering eating Uber's lunch. And so what I'm thinking about is, can they do it as cheaply as Uber? Are margins just going to be driven down? Is it going to be a price war? And if yes, who is going to win that?

这是个棘手的问题。我倾向于认为Uber会赢，原因是他们可以利用人类劳动力。如果Waymo要确保你一天中任何时间都能叫到车，想想他们需要在各地部署多少辆车，而Uber则灵活得多。但我还在思考另一个问题：人们会想拥有自己的自动驾驶汽车吗？如果答案是肯定的，这对Uber这样的公司供应端意味着什么？

It's a tricky question. I'm inclined to say Uber and the reason why I am is that they can tap into the human workforce. If Waymo has to make sure that you can get a car at any point in time of the day, think about how many cars they need to deliver everywhere, whereas it's a lot more flexible for Uber. But another thing I've been thinking about is would people like to get their own AV? And if the answer is yes, what does that do to the supply side for a company like Uber?

我记得美国有研究显示，私人汽车的闲置时间高达95%左右。我能理解很多人不想当Uber司机，但如果换成自动驾驶汽车呢？只要接入Uber的系统，它们可以随时待命四小时、六小时或任何你需要的时间。这样供需双方就会竞相压价。

I think that there are some studies done in The US where it's like a car is idle, if it's private, it's like 95% of the time, something like that. I can see a lot of people don't want to be an Uber driver, but what if it's an AV? Would they be okay? As long as you can probably tap into Uber's system, they're going to be there four or six or whatever you needed. So they're going to have people and providers bid for the lowest possible price.

Stig 有趣的是，Uber在中东输给Kareem、在东南亚输给Grab后，获得了这些公司的股份。他们现在正出售这些股份——他们称之为'回收'——以实现与某些品牌的垂直整合。比如Lucid等小品牌，他们卖掉了最初投入约30亿美元的自动驾驶部门Aurora（现主营自动驾驶卡车）。他们试图通过非控股方式与特斯拉、Waymo之外的小玩家整合，这对小玩家可能是双赢，因为他们能获得匹配技术。我担心Alphabet，不仅因为他们可能拥有最顶尖的技术，更因为这里存在巨大的广告机遇——而最懂广告的，莫过于Alphabet。

Stig One of the interesting things is that after Uber lost the game, let's say, The Middle East to Kareem or to Grab in Southeast Asia, they got equity in those companies and they're selling that or recycling as they're calling it, selling that equity right now to make, let's call it vertical integration with some brands. Smaller brands like Lucid and a few others, I think they sold their A part of the The original AV, which is sunk around 3,000,000,000 into, was Aurora, which is primarily now in AV trucks. They're trying to see if they can vertically integrate with some of the smaller players, not taking controlling stakes. For some of the smaller players that are not Tesla or Waymo, it might be a win because they do get access thirty:thirty to that matching technology. I am worried about Alphabet, and I'm worried partly because they probably have the best tech but also because there is a huge advertising opportunity and if anyone understands advertising, it's Alphabet.

Uber广告业务的出色表现让我震惊。举个例子：点击率3%，每千次展示成本45美元——对靠广告生存的我们来说，这数据好得惊人。为什么？因为他们能精准推送：比如你去某家餐厅后，系统会推荐隔壁喜剧俱乐部的广告。用户群体普遍更年轻、更富裕，对新品牌接受度极高。

I'm shocked by how well the advertising business is doing for Uber. And I'm going to give you some random numbers here, but the click through rate is 3% and the CPM is $45 And for anyone who is in advertising and we are funded mainly by advertising, rates are just amazing. Why is that? Well, they're sort of like, No, if you're going to this restaurant, they can target you to go to the comedy club afterwards next door. Typically, you're skewing a bit younger, wealthier, people who are very open to new brands.

这确实是非常理想的人群画像。当然所有担忧都值得注意，很可能他们确实无法与Alphabet和特斯拉抗衡。有个关于核聚变的老笑话：'距离实现永远还有三十年'。自动驾驶领域某些人的论调也类似——'明年就会普及'，但显然不会。Uber上周财报电话会议中提到，他们将自己定位为零工经济平台，这很有意思。

It's a very interesting demographic to have, but certainly all concerns are well noted and it might very well be so that they can't compete with Alphabet and the Teslas of the world. There's this joke that fusion energy is thirty years out and it always will be. I kind of feel like if you're listening to some people in the AV space, they're always like, Next year, the world is going to be on it. It's probably not going to happen next year. One of the interesting things about Uber is that and they talked about this in the latest earnings call that came out here last week was they see themselves as a platform for the gig economy.

所以每当我们想到优步时，有人可能会认为，哦，它就像出租车，只是更好一些。而他们对自己的定位则是，不，并非如此。我们是在服务新一代人。我记得在我这个年纪，每当周日晚上8点，我们都会围坐在电视机前，因为那是无论什么节目播放的时间。你只能在周二上午10点之类的时间看重播。

So whenever we think about Uber, who might be thinking, Oh, it's like a taxi, just nicer. How they think about themselves is that, no, that's not the case. We are catering to a new generation. I remember I'm at an age where whenever it was Sunday night, 08:00, we huddled in front of the TV because that was whenever whatever kind of thing was on. You had to catch the reruns at Tuesday, 10AM or whatever.

过去就是这样。现在有了新一代人，他们习惯于按需获取一切，无论是食物、出行还是其他任何服务。因此这种匹配技术不仅适用于出行或配送。想想看，任何你需要的本地物品都能在30分钟内送达。这本身就很有趣。

That was how it was. Right now, you have a new generation and they're used to everything on demand, whether it's food or rides or whatever it might be. And so that matching technology isn't just the case for mobility or delivery. Think about delivery for anything you need locally within thirty minutes. So that's interesting itself.

实际上他们在上次财报电话会议上提到，部分司机因为非常关注每小时能赚多少钱，这也是他们选择Lyft的原因。两家公司都提供出行和配送服务。现在某些地区还开始为大型科技公司提供AI标注工作的司机兼职。所以如果你在等待下一个订单，可以坐在车里用手机做AI工作。报酬不算高，但我觉得这明显体现了30:50的宏观趋势

Actually what they talked about in the last earnings call was that some of their drivers because they're very much thinking about how much money is their driver making per hour, which is why they're supposed to Lyft. Both have mobility and they also have delivery. They're also now in certain areas offering drivers to do AI labeling for big tech companies. So if you're sitting waiting for your next assignment, you can actually sit on your phone, do AI work. It's not that well paid, but it's very much I think you're seeing a macro trend thirty:fifty of

零工经济在世界许多原本没有这种模式的地区变得越来越普遍。

gig economy being more prevalent in lots of parts of the world that didn't used to have that.

他们还提到70%的司机是因为通货膨胀加入平台的。特定人群会进入这个行业，这很大程度上是由供给驱动的。另一个趋势是，回到网约车话题，新一代中有很多30:50岁的人没有驾照。我有驾照但从没买过车。有趣的是，每当我与50岁的人交谈时，他们

They also talk about how 70% of the drivers came to the platform because of inflation. There was a certain demographic that would go into that line of work and it's very supply driven. Stig Another trend, and we go back to ride hailing, there's also a new generation where a lot of people thirty:fifty don't have driver's license. I do have driver's license, I never own a car. It's kind of interesting because whenever I speak with someone who's 50, they

总会告诉我，我有辆车，它给了我很多

would always tell me, I have a car, it gives me a lot of

在我生活的地方，我觉得没有车反而获得了极大自由。停车很麻烦，停车位贵得离谱。所以没有车反而更自由，至少在我住的地方，三分钟内就能叫到优步带我去任何地方。这种趋势越来越明显。不知道这是否也算3:30的宏观利好因素。

I felt the way that the landscape is here where I live, I have so much freedom because I don't have a car. It's terrible to park and parking spots are like, it's incredible expense. So there's so much freedom in not having a car, at least where I'm based, I can always get an Uber within three minutes and they can drive me whatever. And that's a trend that you see more and more. I don't know, that's a macro three:thirty tailwind too perhaps.

我确实理解这种观点，因为我曾在旧金山生活过，在那里汽车简直就是个麻烦，因为停车太难了。而且这是在优步出现前的公共交通密度和类似出租车、Zipcar等服务的情况下。你真正需要一辆车的时候，通常是住在郊区或有孩子需要汽车座椅，把座椅搬进出租车太麻烦，尤其是有多个孩子时，自己有车更方便。但这种情况相当有限。所以我很容易想象一个未来，每个人可能拥有一辆小车，然后其他出行需求都交给自动驾驶车辆。

I do understand that point of view because I've lived in San Francisco where a car is just a hassle because it's so hard to park. And this this is the density of public transport and things like it was pre Uber, but, you know, taxis and Zipcars and things like that. The only time you really need one is when you live in the suburbs or you've got kids in car seats, and you it's such a pain to get the car seat into a a taxi that it's just easier to get, particularly if you got a number of kids in car seats. But that's a pretty limited use case. So I can easily see a world where everybody or everybody has maybe one small car and then you have an AV for everything else.

在中国时有个有趣的现象，我们接触的一些风投机构重点关注人工智能、机器人和自动驾驶。他们认为特斯拉在自动驾驶领域最领先或最可能成功，因为其传感系统不需要Waymo车辆那些额外摄像头，造车成本低得多。尽管Waymo目前略有先发优势。最终形态可能是接入某种网络的车辆，很可能采用特斯拉的系统，因为它更便宜——省去那些设备能便宜两三万美元，利润空间更大。

One of the interesting things when I was in China and we were meeting with some of the VCs and the things that VCs are focused on AI, robotics, and autonomous driving. And their view was that Tesla was the furthest ahead in autonomous driving or most likely to be successful because they spend so much less on their cars because the nature of the sensing system doesn't require the or the extra cameras that the Waymo cars have. Even though the Waymo cars have a little bit of a head start now. So the final state of this is some sort of network attached to probably a a car that's operating a system like Tesla because it's cheaper. It's like 20 or $30,000 cheaper without all of the the things on it, you make more money out of it.

所以会有人提供车辆。我想这就是特斯拉的愿景：个人出资购车后接入网络，从网络收益中分成。这样就有被动资本提供者和网络运营方。这看起来是个不错的模式，很可能成为现实。关键在于优步能否在特斯拉建成类似其打车网络前，吸引足够多特斯拉式车辆加入自己的网络。

So you have people who will provide the cars. Like, I think that's Tesla's vision, right, that individuals will put up the capital for the car, then put it on the network, and then they'll share the revenue out of the network. So you have someone who's just basically a passive capital provider and someone who operates the network. And that seems like a pretty good that seems like probably the likely outcome to me. The the question is whether Uber can get enough Tesla type cars on its network before Tesla can get an Uber type network built out.

我认为这就是挑战所在。优步至少占这场竞争的一半筹码，对吧？他们已经完成了一半，只需决定是与某家自动驾驶供应商合作——现在这类供应商足够多，他们应该能找到合适的。

And I think that's the challenge. Uber's at least 50% of this fight. Right? It's it's halfway there. They've just gotta figure out the other whether they partner with an autonomous vehicle provider and they are they're probably there enough around that they can find one.

说不定特斯拉会收购Lyft之类的。谁知道呢。但我认为这个赌注很有意思。Stig，我很想听听你对估值的看法。

And then maybe Tesla buys Lyft or something like that. I don't know. But I would be I think it's I I I like the I like the bet. I'm interested to hear how you feel about the valuation, Stig.

其实我还有一点要补充。托比，你提到特斯拉与Waymo的对比很有见地。

Actually, have one more point. Yeah. I have one more point to make. I think great point, Toby. You brought up about Tesla versus Waymo.

我认为Waymo和特斯拉在技术路线上做出了根本性不同的决策。Waymo选择了激光雷达技术，这是谷歌的路线，成本高昂且难以规模化，但他们假设这是实现L5级完全自动驾驶的唯一途径。而特斯拉则采取不同策略：既然那条路无法规模化，何不追求让每辆车都具备自动驾驶能力？这就是他们的愿景。

I think there was a fundamental technical decision that was made by Waymo and Tesla that are like completely different. So Waymo went for the LiDAR technology that is Google, way more expensive and not scalable, but their hypothesis was that's the only way we can go to level five AV, which means no drivers at all. Whereas Tesla took this approach of saying, hey, why go that route because we can't really make it scalable. Every car should be autonomous. That was their vision.

因此他们采用了摄像头方案，基于埃隆的观点：既然我是通过眼睛观察，摄像头也应当具备类似感知能力。我认为他们现在配备了八九个摄像头，这应该会有所帮助。而且多尔比，根据你与风投的对话所做的评估完全正确。在我看来，特斯拉最新版本的FSD（全自动驾驶）系统已取得质的飞跃，实际上已非常接近L5级别。

So they went with cameras with the point of view that Elon had that if I am seeing through my eyes, camera should be surprised. I think they have eight or nine cameras now, and that should help. And I think your your assessment, Dolby, based on the conversations you had with the VCs is absolutely right. I think the latest version of FSD in Tesla is leaps and bounds better. Actually, it's very close to level five.

虽然尚未完全实现，但Waymo据我所知已达到该水平，因为他们已获准在无驾驶员状态下运营。而特斯拉目前仍需驾驶员坐在座位上。但最终如果特斯拉能解决L5级技术并理顺法规问题——其他机构指出的风险在于，若公众对就业影响产生强烈反弹，政府可能限制自动驾驶车辆，这种情况反而对优步有利，因为优步是现有市场主导者。

It's not completely there yet, but Waymo is already at levels from what I see because they're able to operate without a driver. They have that license now to operate without a driver. Whereas Tesla doesn't really have it yet so because the driver has to be in the seat. But it's eventually, if Tesla is able to figure out how to get to level five and get those regulations figured out, and that's the risk that others have state that can work in favor of Uber is if there is a huge backlash in terms of employment and public sentiment, governments might limit the AVs. If that happens, that is in favor of Uber because Uber is an incumbent incumbent.

但如果这种情况不发生，自动驾驶技术真正普及——我同意你的观点，这就像核聚变技术。过去十五年人们一直在谈论自动驾驶的到来，但这次感觉不同，因为我在旧金山亲身体验过Waymo，也试驾过搭载最新FSD的特斯拉，技术确实已经成熟。

But if that doesn't and if AV as a technology takes hold, and I agree to your point that it's almost like nuclear fusion. For past fifteen years, they have been talking about AV coming in. But this time, it feels real because I have ridden in Waymo in San Francisco. I have sat in Teslas the with the latest FSDs. It's there.

这不再是实验室项目，而是产品化进程。Waymo在这方面已经领先，他们完成了产品化，现在需要扩大规模。所以我认为法规若限制自动驾驶，受益者将是优步。这种处境在我看来非常糟糕，因为你居然寄望于他人阻止自己被颠覆。

It's no longer a lab project. It's just productizing it, and Waymo is already ahead with that. They're already pro have product productize it, but now they have to scale. So I think it's a regulation that can if regulation regulation is against AV, it's in favor of Uber. That's a very bad spot to be in in my opinion because now you're hoping somebody will stop you from getting disrupted.

还记得特拉维斯执掌时期，优步其实设有专门的自动驾驶部门。但在测试期间发生事故后，特拉维斯离职，公司受到惊吓，彻底关闭了该业务。所以现在他们缺失了自动驾驶这部分能力。

And if you remember when Travis was there, Uber actually had an active division working on autonomous car. They met with the there was an accident during their test drives. Travis left. The company got spooked, and they completely shut down that operation. So now they don't have that part, the autonomous part.

正如托比所说，优步解决了50%的配送网络问题，但没解决另外50%的自动驾驶技术。特斯拉和Waymo拥有那另外50%。现在Waymo正在逐个城市攻克配送网络问题。

And as Toby was saying, Uber has figured out the distribution, that's the 50%, but hasn't figured out the autonomous that the other 50%. Tesla has the other 50%. Waymo has the other 50%. Now they need to figure out the distribution and Waymo is at it actually. They're going city by city.

但斯蒂格，你的观点也很重要：Waymo如何在交通高峰时扩展规模？他们无法突然增加车辆。而特斯拉的模式，如托比所言，每位车主都将成为被动资本提供者——当车辆停放时，它可以自动接单。我只需在特斯拉APP上点击'我现在可用'即可。

But Stig, your point is also valid like how will Waymo scale if there is a surge in traffic? They can't just suddenly add more cars. Whereas in case of Tesla, Tesla's model will be, as Toby was saying, every car owner of Tesla will be like will be a passive capital provider. When the car is parked, it just goes. And I can just turn on in my Tesla app saying, I'm available now.

所以事情就这样发展，我甚至可以设定一个时间表，说从上午十点到下午两点，你想做什么就做什么，但要回到这个停车场。但埃隆会把它交给优步，还是为所有特斯拉司机开发特斯拉应用，让它像特斯拉云一样运作呢？

So it goes and I can even set a schedule saying between ten a. To two p. M. Do whatever you want, but come back to this parking lot. But then will Elon give it to Uber or have Tesla app for all Tesla drivers and make it like a Tesla cloud?

这些都是尚未解答的问题。所以，你知道，很难确切地说事情会如何发展。这就是为什么很难反驳你的观点。

And these are all unanswered questions. So, like, you know, it's very hard to say this is how it will play out actually. So that's why it's very hard to make make a case against your pitch as well.

另一个支持优步的论点——不，不是优步，抱歉，是支持Waymo的——是如果你去像旧金山或圣莫尼卡这样的地方。但我上次去圣莫尼卡时，看到的前四辆车都是Waymo的。那里有很多Waymo的车。

One other argument for Uber is what not not Uber. Sorry. For for Waymo is what if you go to somewhere like San Francisco or to Santa Monica here. But last time I went to Santa Monica, the first four cars that I saw were Waymo's. Like, there are lots and lots of Waymo's on the car.

旧金山周围有很多Waymo的车。他们确实在扩大车队，就我所知，他们已经验证了这个概念，已经启动了业务，现在只是在扩大业务规模。未来几年，这对优步来说会是个问题。

There are lots and lots of Waymo's around San Francisco. Like, they really are rolling out the fleet, and that fleet just gets as far as I'm concerned, like, they've they've proven the concept. They've they've launched the business. They're just now they're just growing the business. And in the next few years, it becomes a problem for for Uber.

这并不是说优步无法竞争，因为我认为网络是这个问题中难以解决的部分。但特斯拉和谷歌肯定是能竞争的两家公司。但我仍然认为优步是其中的一部分，优步必须成为某人计划的一部分，或者他们必须能够拥有自己的自动驾驶汽车。正如你所说，我们不知道那还有多远。

That's not to say that Uber can't compete because I think the network is a hard part of that problem to solve. But Tesla and and Google are certainly two companies that can compete. But I I still like Uber as a I think Uber's part of it. Uber's gotta be part of somebody's plan or they've gotta they'll be able to have access to their own AVs. And to your point, we don't know how far out that is.

但人们似乎确实更喜欢自动驾驶汽车。我读过一些乘坐过它们的人喜欢没有司机的感觉。

But people do seem to have a preference for the for the AVs. I've read some of the people who travel in them like the fact that there's no driver.

斯蒂格，是的，这完全说得通。想想现在的人们，奥斯汀有一项研究显示，他们愿意付更多的钱来避免有司机。

Stig Yeah, it makes complete sense. Think people right now there was this study in Austin, they're willing to pay more money for not to have a driver.

Stig 你认为这是新奇事物吗？我愿意多花点钱体验第一次乘坐，但过段时间我肯定会选择最便宜的那个。

Stig Do you think that that's novelty? I would pay a little bit more money to have my first ride in it but after a while I'm going to be just going with the cheapest one.

Stig 我认为价格对大多数人来说非常重要。确实有一部分人愿意为无人驾驶支付溢价。Stig 这也很好地说明了Uber能捕获多少消费者剩余——他们提供各种服务选项：拼车、高端车型、公司报销等不同定价策略。

Stig I think price probably matters a lot to most people. I do think there is a certain segment who would be willing to pay more for there not to be a driver. Stig And it speaks really well about Uber also, like how much of consumer surplus they capture. They have all of these different offerings. You're willing to share a ride, if you want a nicer car, if your company is paying, then you also charge something else.

他们非常擅长在正确时机向用户精准推送服务。Spotify等拥有海量用户数据的公司也是如此。我们主要讨论了Waymo和特斯拉，我同意它们是两大竞争对手。Stig 我总觉得最终会归结到资金成本问题——即便需要100亿美元（随便举个数字）组建车队，最终很可能以房地产信托基金形式实现。

And so they're very good at targeting people with the right offer at the right time. We see that with companies like Spotify and so many others who have a lot of data about how you are as a user. So we mainly talked about Waymo and we talked about Tesla, and I do agree those are the two main competitors. Stig I can't help but think that it's going to be all driven down to the cost of capital. Even whenever you would say they would need $10,000,000,000 random number, generic year or to secure that fleet, I think it's going to come in in the form of a REIT.

Stig 商业模式并不难想象：要么按次收费，要么收入分成。很容易建模计算出3%-5%的分红收益率。所以当我思考自动驾驶领域有多少玩家时，总会想到受补贴的中国企业——Waymo和特斯拉真能成为成本最低的吗？

Stig It's not too difficult to think about a business model. It's either a fixed payment per ride or revenue share or something. You can model that relatively easy and figure out what kind of dividend thirty:fifty coupon can you get. So whenever I'm thinking about how many players you have in the AV space, I'm thinking about subsidized Chinese companies. Are Waymo and Tesla really going to be cheapest?

特斯拉车主相比其他人会更愿意共享车辆吗？在我看来，Uber很有机会获得最低资金成本，既能吸引愿为有司机服务付高价的用户，也能服务追求更低价格的群体。所以谁知道呢？如你所见，尽管你们两位让我重新审视Waymo和特斯拉的威胁，但我仍对Uber持乐观态度。

Are drivers of Tesla more likely to allow other people into their cars versus others? It seems to me that Uber has a pretty good case for getting to the lowest cost of capital and being able to capture those who would be willing to pay more if there is a driver or even less if there's a driver. So who knows? As you can tell, I'm pretty bullish on Uber even though you certainly gave me pause, both of you gents, and I need to think more about this threat from Waymo and Tesla.

Stig 对估值有什么看法吗，Stig？能否详细说说你的观点？

Stig Do have some thoughts on the valuation, Stig? What of that? Can you walk us through what you see there?

Stig 好的。直接说结论的话，我认为未来五年内部收益率可能在15%左右。但这建立在诸多假设前提下。关键指标要看总预订量，预计未来可维持在15%-20%的增长区间。

Stig Yeah. If I can skip to the end, I'm looking at something like 15% in the internal rate of return over the next five years. But again, it comes with so many ifs whenever you would do that. So what are the key metrics to look at? You're probably looking at the gross bookings, and I would expect they would be 15% to 20% here for the foreseeable future.

你也看到了整体抽成比例都在上升。不过移动出行和外卖配送的抽成比例有所不同。外卖的抽成略低，全球范围内大约在5%到7%。我还要说的是，这实际上取决于你所观察市场的成熟度。全球范围内，移动出行（主要是网约车）的抽成比例约为30%。

You've also seen take rates go up across the board. It's a little bit different what kind of take rate you have whenever it comes to mobility or whenever it comes to delivery. The tip is a little lower in delivery, around five to seven percentage points globally. And I would also say it really depends on the maturity of the market you're looking at. Globally, take rates for mobility, which is basically ride hailing, is around 30%.

过去这个比例要低得多。优步的做法是，在新城市先进行补贴，然后对司机和乘客都采取30:30的分成比例，当

They used to be significantly lower. The way Uber does is that they subsidize new cities then thirty:thirty both whenever

它

it

涉及到司机时，他们保证不同类型的收入，同时也为

comes to drivers, they guarantee different kind of pay, but also for

这样他们就能达到临界规模，然后开始提高抽成比例。特别是在被搜索时，他们会收取更高的抽成。所以这有点像是一个动态调整的过程，但大致在30%左右，再次强调，这取决于市场的成熟度。让我有点沮丧的事情之一是股权激励。我知道这是所有大型科技公司都必须考虑的问题，如果我们不这样做，就无法吸引合适的人才等等。

So then they reach critical mass and then they start increasing the take rates. Especially whenever they're searched, they take higher take rates. So it's sort of like a dynamic thing, but it's roughly 30%, again, depending on maturity of the market. And so one of the things that frustrates me a bit is stock based compensation. And I know this is a thing you have to think about for all big tech companies, and if we don't do it, we can't attract the right talents and so on and so forth.

而且

And

这似乎是行业惯例，但过去几年你们已经看到了3%到4%的股权稀释。

It seems to be the name of the game, but you are seeing a dilution of 3% to 4% over the past few years.

Stig 然后他们开始加大股票回购力度来抵消这一点。这让我有点抓狂，因为他们谈论的方式是，哦，我们发行了这些股票，但由于我们回购了，Stig 所以这

Stig then they have started to ramp up share buybacks to offset that. That drives me a little nuts because the way that they talk about it is that, Oh, we issue these shares, but because we buy them back, Stig it's

并不是真正需要担心的

not really a concern for

然后你会想，他们刚刚批准了一个200亿美元的方案，这还是在已经批准的30亿美元之上的。就好像，但这230亿美元不是凭空出现的。是真金白银。你还谈到你有多少增长机会，而这230亿美元并没有投入到增长机会中。无论如何，你还是在稀释股东的权益。

And you're like, They just authorized a $20,000,000,000 package, which was on top of the $3,000,000,000 that was already authorized. It's like, But those $23,000,000,000 doesn't come out of thin air. Are real dollars. You also talk about how many growth opportunities that you have, and those $23,000,000,000 are not invested into growth opportunities. You're still diluting shareholders, whatever you would.

所以这让我有点抓狂。我也不太喜欢调整后的EBITDA数字。每次公司跟你谈调整后的EBITDA时，你都得像寻宝一样去弄清楚他们是怎么得出这个数字的。在他们的投资者日上，他们谈到未来三年的调整后EBITDA，其中90%将是自由现金流。我真的很想知道这是否真的会实现。

So that drives me a little bit crazy. I'm also not a big fan of the adjusted EBITDA number. Every time a company is talking to you about adjusted EBITDA, you sort of have to go on a treasure hunt to figure out how they came up with that number. During their Investor Day, they talked about how the next three years adjusted EBITDA, 90% of that would be free cash flows. I'm really curious to see if that is actually going to materialize.

如果真是这样，那么看这些数字会稍微容易一些。但不把基于股票的薪酬当作费用，这真的让我有点抓狂。不管怎样，我很高兴几年前他们改变了管理层的激励结构。现在不仅仅是限制性股票单位，这基本上就是说，只要你还活着，就能免费拿到股票。现在他们真的需要表现出色才行。

If that is going to be the case, it's a little bit easier to look at some of those numbers. But not saying that share based compensation is not an expense just drives me a little nuts. Anyways, I'm really happy that a few years ago they changed the incentive structure for management. Now it's not just restricted stock units, which is basically slang for saying, As long as you have a pulse, just get free shares. Now they actually need to perform.

但真正让我生气的是，你可以去看代理声明，然后你会想，哦，比如我现在看的是2024年的奖金结构。他们谈到调整后的EBITDA占20%，然后还有20%是基于调整后EBITDA减去股票薪酬，然后是20%基于总预订量，还有一些非财务指标。但他们没有定义如何达到这些目标。他们只是说，哦，这是关于增长的。是的，但增长多少？

Thirty:fifty But what really upsets me about that is So you can go in, in the proxy and you can be like, Oh, for example, what I'm looking at here is the bonus structure here for 2024. And they talk about adjusted EBITDA at 20%, and then they have another 20% which is adjusted EBITDA less stock based compensation, and then 20% on gross bookings, and then they have some other things that are non financial. But then they don't define for you how to reach those targets. They're just saying, Oh, it's about the growth. Yes, but how much growth?

是1%还是20%？无论如何，我喜欢在薪酬方面有透明度，尤其是因为你们有一个我称之为薄弱的董事会。很多非基金公司的董事会都是这样。如果他们是标普500的成分股，是一家大公司，他们会聘请外部人士来担任CEO。

Is it 1%? Is it 20%? Anyways, I like transparency whenever it comes to sector compensation, especially also because you have what I would call a weak board. That is the case with a lot of non fund other companies. If they're in the S and P 500, it's a major company, they hire an outsider to be the CEO.

我并不是说他不是一个称职的CEO。通常他的持股比例可能与其净资产不符。对他来说这是一大笔钱，但董事会里总少不了那些老面孔——贝莱德、先锋、道富等等。于是你得到的是一套平淡无奇的薪酬方案，这有点令人恼火。作为投资者，你看不到理想中的利益一致性，而且对于一家未来几年可能每年增长15%、20%的公司来说，你每年一开始就落后3%或4%。

I'm not saying that he's not a competent CEO. He typically doesn't have a large ownership stake perhaps per his net worth. It's a lot of money to him, but you have your usual suspects on the board, your BlackRocks, Vanguard, State Street, so on and so forth. Stig And you sort of get this vanilla type compensation package, which is just a bit annoying. You don't have that wonderful alignment you want to see as an investor and you generally don't want to be For a company that's probably going to grow 15%, 20% over the next few years every single year, you do start 3% or 4% in the hole every year.

是的，股票回购抵消了这部分影响，但这些资金本可用于公司发展。我认为像优步这样成熟的公司没必要如此安排。风投支持的企业这样做可以理解，但他们早就上市了，现在完全有条件调整。可当你看看那些科技巨头，情况更糟，就像那句老话：葡萄干混着粪块，终究还是粪块。

And yes, again, that has been offset by share buybacks, but that money could also be used to grow the company. And I would argue that with a company as mature as Uber, you wouldn't need to structure it that way. I can see why it makes sense for a VC backed whatever, but they IPO ed a long time ago and they're already at a stage where you can probably turn some of that down. But then you look at all the big tech companies and it's even worse, then you're like, What does each other monger say? If you mix raisins and turds, they're still turds.

所以其他公司做得更差对我并无参考价值。如果非要我说，预计未来五年这里能有15%的回报率。这就是我的判断。抱歉关于优步讲了这么多。哈里或托比，你们有什么总结性发言吗？

So I don't know if it's useful for me that other companies are doing it even worse. Anyways, if you put me on the spot, I'm looking at something like a 15% return here over the next five years. That's what I allowed. Sorry that I went so long here on Uber. Any concluding remarks before we throw it out to you there, Harry or you, Toby?

哈里：不，我认为这是个绝佳的典型案例，因为它象征着这个时代。优步是许多科技企业在颠覆浪潮中航行的标杆。既有颠覆者，也有试图驾驭或利用这场颠覆的业内玩家，优步正是其中之一。选择它来概括当下这个时代非常恰当。

Harry No, think this is a great big stick because this is the sign of time. It's a poster child for a lot of tech businesses who are navigating disruption. So there are some disruptors, but many within the tech industry who are trying to manage this disruption or trying to take advantage of this disruption. And Uber is one of those. So it's a great pick to kind of summarize the time we are in right now.

非常有趣。未来一两年追踪优步的发展会很有意义。

So interesting. And it'll be great to follow through and see in a year or two where Uber will be.

没错。我同意。选得好。我关注它很久了。

Yeah. I agree. Good pick. Good pick. I've been looking at it for a long time.

我觉得很有意思。因为这个领域竞争激烈，那些资金雄厚但缺乏网络效应的对手——我们终将看清哪方面更重要。我猜Lyft会被收购，它已部分解决问题却至今未被收购反而令人意外，或许从头打造新平台更划算？谁知道呢。

I think it's very interesting. It's just because there's so much going on in that space with big well funded competitors, but who don't have the network, and we're gonna see, I guess, which is which is the more important part. I'm guessing that Lyft gets taken out. I'm surprised that Lyft hasn't been taken out yet by somebody else because it's they get part of the problem solved, but maybe it's cheaper just to build build fresh. I don't know.

这会很有趣的。

It's gonna be interesting.

克莱，我们稍作休息，听听今天赞助商的信息。

Clay Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors.

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斯蒂格 好的。回到节目中来。非常感谢你的反馈，延斯。哈里，该你了。

Stig All right. Back to the show. All right. Thank you so much, Jens, for your feedback. Hari, you're up.

哈里 我今天的选择是默克公司。我选择默克有几个原因。显然，关税和贸易紧张局势引起了我的注意，因为制药行业也受到了影响。除此之外，默克还面临一些短期的不利因素，因为其一些关键药物即将面临专利悬崖。在我深入探讨之前，这就是我开始研究默克及整个制药行业的原因。

Hari So my pick today is Merck. And there are a couple of reasons why I picked Merck. And that is because obviously the tariffs and trade tension caught my attention because pharma is also in the crosswinds of that. And on top of that, Merck also has some kind of short term headwinds that are coming towards it because of some patent cliffs on some of its key drugs. So before I get there, that's the reason I started looking into Merck, pharma industry in general.

在众多大型制药公司中，我选择默克是因为它目前是最便宜的之一。简单介绍一下默克，默克是收入超过600亿美元的五大制药公司之一。在制药行业的肿瘤学领域，他们是迄今为止最占主导地位的领导者。事实上，他们的顶级药物Keytruda是肿瘤学领域最主导的平台，最近一年的收入约为295亿美元。总的来说，肿瘤学领域——虽然说起来令人难过——预计到2032年2月，其总可寻址市场（TAM）将达到约5000亿美元或更多，年复合增长率为11.3%。

And in that, I picked Merck because it's one of the cheapest now among all the big pharmas. To give you a background on Merck, Merck is one of the top five pharma companies with 60 plus billion dollars in revenue. They are the by far the most dominant leader in the oncology segment within pharma. In fact, one of their top drug, Keytruda, is the most dominant platform in oncology with bringing in around $29,500,000,000 in revenue in the latest year. And the oncology in general, and it's a sad thing to say, but it's projected to be a TAM of around $500,000,000,000 or more by 02/1932, which is a CAGR of 11.3%.

这种增长率是我们不愿看到的，但很遗憾，我认为这与默克的故事相关。默克也有推出这类重磅药物的历史，并且具备内部创新和开发的能力。事实上，如果你看看Keytruda，它从零收入开始，然后达到了10亿美元，之后持续增长。如果你看过去十年，你可以看到它从0增长到10亿，再到295亿美元，他们是如何发展这项业务的。

This is one growth rate that you don't want to see, but it's it's sad, but I think that plays into this story. And Merck also kind of, you know, has a history of bringing in these kind of really blockbuster drugs and has that ability to innovate internally and then develop. In fact, if you look at Keytruda, it started with zero revenue. Then it accomplished $1,000,000,000 and then it kept going. And if you see last ten years, and you can see that from 0 to 1,000,000,000 to 29,500,000,000.0, how they have grown this business.

如果没有Keytruda，他们的收入将停滞在约340亿到350亿美元之间。因此，Keytruda是一个非常重要的方面，而当前的逆风也在于此。为什么他们现在估值较低？因为Keytruda的专利预计将在2028年到期。这意味着其他生物类似药可以以更便宜的价格进入市场。

And without Keytruda, if you look at their revenue, it will be stagnant at around 34, $35,000,000,000 today without Keytruda. So Keytruda is a very important aspect, and therein lies the current headwind. So why are they cheap? Because Keytruda's patent is scheduled to expire in 2028. And that means other biosimilar drugs can come in with, much cheaper alternatives.

这是他们面临的逆风之一。另一个逆风是，最近现任政府就最惠国定价（MNF定价）做出了行政决定。这意味着在类似发达市场中药品的价格将被用作在美国定价的参考。这可能会影响默克和其他制药公司。

So that's one of the headwinds they are facing. The other headwind they are facing, which is again recently the current administration made a executive decision on NF NMF pricing, that is or MNF pricing. Most favored nations pricing. What it means is the price of a drug in a similar developed market will be used as a reference for pricing it in US. And that might impact Merck and other pharmas.

这不仅关乎默克公司。其他制药企业也面临定价权问题。例如，Keytruda每剂费用可能在1万至1.2万美元之间，对接受治疗的患者而言，年花费可达15至18万美元。这显然成为美国许多选民和公民的重大关切。

It's just not for Merck. Other pharma in of their pricing power. For example, Keytruda per dose can cost you anywhere between $10,000 to $12,000 And for a patient undergoing treatment, it might result in an annual expense of anywhere between 150 to 180 k. And that's a big concern for many of the voters within US, obviously, and citizens. So it's a big concern.

默克公司的反驳理由是，在这1万至1.2万美元中，半数流向了中间商。这是美国医疗体系固有的低效问题——并非默克赚取了全部利润，其中50%被中间环节获取。但若同类药物降价，确实会给默克带来风险。

The pushback Merck has is that out of that 10,000 to $12,000, half of it goes to middlemen. And that's a inherent inefficiency in our medical system in The US. It's not like Merck is making all the money. 50¢ is going to the middleman. But, however, it does pose a risk for Merck if the prices are brought down for similar medications.

这两大逆风正摆在默克面前，导致其股票当前市盈率仅12倍，预期市盈率11倍。相较强生或辉瑞等同行18倍以上的市盈率，投资者对默克的估值情绪明显偏低。但我要强调的是，这种专利悬崖周期是制药行业的常态而非缺陷——所有药企都会经历新药研发替代收入下滑的过程，稍后我将详述其研发管线中的后期药物。

So these are the two headwinds that are staring at Merck, and that's the reason this the stock is now at a PE of 12 and the forward PE of 11, I believe. Compared to all other peers, if you look at Johnson and Johnson or Pfizer, they're all trading in the range of 18 and above p. So they're much their value is much lower in terms of investors' sentiments. However, the reason I'm pitching is that this is a pretty much a feature in pharma industry, not a bug in the sense that all these pharma companies goes through these cycles of patent cliffs, revenue decline, then they develop their new drugs. In fact, I'll talk soon about the late stage drugs that they have in the pipeline.

最终它们总能重振营收，这个过程从来不是线性的。就像辉瑞2011年因立普妥专利到期受挫，艾伯维等众多企业也曾经历类似挑战。

And then basically, they again increase their revenue. It's never smooth. Like Pfizer experienced it with Lipitor in 2011. That's when the stock hit, say with AbbVie. So many other companies have faced it in the past.

默克已采取应对措施：首先是开发Keytruda皮下注射剂型。目前癌症患者需通过静脉注射耗时60-90分钟，流程极其痛苦——必须前往诊所排队，再花费一小时输液。

Merck, however, is already taking steps to mitigate this. Number one is they're coming up with their subcutaneous version of the Keytruda. It today, if I'm a cancer patient, it takes sixty to ninety minutes or thirty to ninety minutes for me to get that drug through IV. So it's a very painful process. You have to go to a clinic, wait in the line, then again spend another hour for the IV, then come back.

这种新型给药方式将改变游戏规则：像打针般便捷，无需专门就诊，在医生办公室几分钟即可完成。

It's a painful process. So this new version, new new way of delivering the medicine is like a shot. You don't even have to go to clinic. Can be delivered anywhere or in your doctor's office. It took only a few minutes.

由于给药机制变更，专利保护期得以延长。虽然面临竞争挑战，但默克已积极布局。其次，其通过收购Verona获得慢性阻塞性肺病药物（交易额100亿美元），其肺动脉高压药物Vinrevir据评估未来潜力巨大。

That extends the patent life because the delivery mechanism has changed. It does have some challenges from some other companies, but I think Merck is already working towards it. The second thing is they also acquire Verona through that they got a COPD based medicine. It was a $10,000,000,000, acquisition. Their Vinrevir, which is a pulmonary hypertension drug, has a huge potential according to them in the future.

目前是几亿美元。但Keytruda最初也是如此。他们还在筛选处于研发管线后期的其他药物。因此到2032年2月前，他们可能已弥补了Keytruda的大部分损失。另一个不同点是，与分子药物不同，这些生物类似药更像缓坡而非悬崖——我们不会看到Keytruda的收入在2028年骤降至零。

It's few $100,000,000 now. But that's how Keytruda started too. So and then they're curating other drugs that are in the later stage of the pipeline. So by 02/1932, they might have compensated for most of the loss from Keytruda. And the other thing is, unlike the molecular drugs, in case of these biosimilar drugs, it's more like a hill, not a cliff in the sense we will not see Keytruda kind of revenue go down to zero come 2028.

Keytruda收入每年会以3%到5%的速度递减，同时其他药物逐渐接棒。但正如芒格所言，某些领域收入下滑率与增长率的关系确实难以预测——商业从来不可预测，但股民总期待确定性。业务风险与波动风险本质不同，这就是我对该业务的看法。

It will be like a three to 5% decline every year in in KEYTRUDA's revenue and then gradually others are picking it up. But there will definitely be pockets where the decline rate versus the revenue growth rate, we it's very hard to predict as Munger says, right, like, business is never predictable. But stock investors always expect predictability. And the key difference between a risk of the business versus risk of volatility are two different things. So that's how I see the business.

收入或有轻微波动，但他们在肿瘤学领域的领先地位、专业经验，以及不断扩大的肿瘤治疗市场总量，为其奠定了长期优势。这是项长期投资，在等待逆风消退期间，我们还能获得4%以上的股息。特别是在当前市场——Toby和Stig可能同意——估值已处高位，兼具优质业务、护城河和知名度的公司实属罕见。

Revenue might be slightly volatile, but the lead they have, the expertise they have in oncology, and the growing TAM of oncology sector positions them really well for the future. And it's a long term investment. And while we are waiting for all these headwinds to subside, we get a four plus percent dividend paid to us. And especially in this market which I feel, Toby and Stig, you might agree, market is richly priced today already. There are very few stocks that we can find where it's a good business, has a good moat, well known company.

它不会突然消失，且市盈率合理。你们更擅长估值分析，但至少这是我的判断。持有五年既能获得4%股息收益——这已优于多数投资选择，同时还具备上行潜力且下行空间有限。

It's not gonna go away tomorrow, but selling at a reasonable PE. And I will I think you guys are more experts in the valuation, but that's my at least my analysis. And I feel like, you know, holding the stock for the next five years will help us kind of, you know, earn the dividends of 4%. It's kind of better than what I would get anywhere else. And then there is an upside too with limited downside.

当然风险在于他们未能研发出新药，所有尝试失败，收购也未达预期。这些尾部风险我认为概率极低，因此才提出这个观点。

But, of course, the risk is they're not able to come up with any drug. None nothing pans out. Their acquisitions don't work out. Those are some of the tail risks, which I believe are minimal. So that's that's the reason I am bringing this up.

欢迎各位反馈。

Open to your feedback.

医疗保健板块据数据显示，其相对于市场的估值处于25年来最低点，类似90年代末的情况。这是个高利润、高收益且稳定的行业，长期表现优异。该公司近年积极回购股票，说明他们也认为自身被低估。正如你所说，股息率确实颇具吸引力。

I think health care I've seen a few statistics that say that health care is as cheap as it's been against the market in twenty five years or something like that. It's a similar scenario to the late nineteen nineties where health care got really cheap relative to the market for whatever reason. And then healthcare is a high margin, high earning, very consistent business, and they tend to do well over the long term. And the fact that these guys are buying, they've bought back stock pretty aggressively over the last few years indicates that they think that they're cheap as well. So I think it's very interesting and good dividend yield as you say.

所以在你等待的这段时间里，你是自由的，是被托付的。我认为这是个好时机。当前政府对医疗保健领域有很多负面态度，而且人们可能还有些‘新冠后遗症’，对医疗保健有点回避。因此，我觉得这是个不错的逆向选择，被低估的好标的，很可能在未来三到五年内见效。

So you're free you're you're carried for the period of time that you're waiting. And I think it's a good time. There's a lot of negativity around health care from the administration, and I think people have got some COVID hangovers as well. A bit, you know, a little bit avoidant of of health care. So I think this is one of those good contrarian, good undervalued contrarian picks that probably works out over a three to five year period.

大概三到五年后，我们会谈论它如何创下历史新高，看起来价格昂贵。

Probably in three to five years, we'll be talking about how it's all time highs and looking expensive.

托比，你提到的这点非常好。一是它目前的价格比历史高点低了40%，从峰值下跌了40%，这是第一点。第二，他们现在的运营利润率是31%，31.5%，是制药行业中最高的。

Actually, that's a very good point, Toby, you brought up. One is it is selling at 40% discount to its all time high. So it's down 40% from its all time high. That's number one. Number two, their operating margin today is 31%, 31.5 which is the highest in the pharma industry.

其他公司的运营利润率大多在17%到18%之间，除了艾伯维，也在30%以上。但艾伯维的估值确实很高。所以从这个角度看，我觉得你提的观点很好。高利润业务，而且股价也从历史高点大幅回落。

The rest are all in the 17% to 18% operating margin except AbbVie which is around 30 plus percent as well. So but Abby was selling at a really premium valuation. So I think that way, I think that's a good point you brought up. High margin business and also the stock is kind of, you know, significantly down from its all time.

斯蒂格·哈里，如果允许我插一句，我本来想说‘它太热门了’。我可能会这么说，但我会先长篇大论一番，然后再说它太热门了。制药行业真的很有挑战性。这让我想起托比在节目上推荐吉利德的时候，我当时觉得数字看起来很棒，但就是不知道自己在投资什么。

Stig Harry, if you allow me to carve out, would just have said, Oh, it's in the too hot pile. I'm probably going to say that, but I'm going to make a lot longer and then say it's in the too hot pile. So pharmaceuticals just really challenging. It reminds me of the time that Toby pitched Gilead here on the show and I was like, Oh, the numbers look great. I just don't know what I'm investing in.

斯蒂格，我觉得这也和你的投资方式有关。比如，我如果说‘我投了1%在优步上’，其实我除非想把一个股票加到10%的仓位，否则不会投资。通常是因为我对它理解不够，或者价格不合适，不能构成完整仓位，但我的意图总是要加到完整仓位。所以当我看到像默克这样的股票时，我在想，我可能永远不会有信心把它加到10%的仓位。我知道托比的策略不同。

Stig I think it also has a bit to do with how you invest. Whenever I, for example, would say, Oh, I invest 1% in Uber, I don't invest in any stocks unless I want to take it to a 10% position. That's typically because I don't understand it well enough or the price is right that it's not a full position, but my intention is always to take it to full position. Stig So whenever I'm looking at a stock like Merck, I'm thinking, I don't think I would ever get the conviction to take it to a 10% position. And I know, for example, Toby's strategy is different.

他比我更注重量化，采用更多篮子策略。我觉得说‘让我分配8%的 portfolio 到制药行业，然后里面有15家公司’没什么问题。我完全理解为什么这会有道理。对我来说，看像默克这样的公司极其困难，不是因为90年代时更容易（那时有一堆不同的原因），而是因为那时有一个转折点，公司有自己的研发，内部网络发展起来，你可以说‘这就是我们做的，我们有特定的文化，比如30:50，关于我们如何做事’。当然，那时你也面临风险，比如最好的科学家被其他公司挖走，但你有很多内部洞察。

He's a lot more quantitative than I am and you hold more in a basket approach. Don't think there's anything wrong with saying, Let me allocate, I don't know, 8% of my portfolio into pharmaceuticals and then I have 15 companies or whatever into that. I can definitely see why it would make sense. It is incredibly difficult for me to look at a company like Merck and not that it would be easier for me to do in the '90s for a bunch of different reasons, there was almost like an inflection point around where you have your own R and D. There was internal networks that you develop and you can sort of say, This is what we do and we have a certain culture thirty:fifty about how we do things Of course, then you run the risk of some of your best scientists being posed by other companies, but you have a lot of that insight.

Stig 现在你走出去，获取不同的研发资源。当然可以说，这不是一样的吗？你需要有能获得职位的人，还得判断他们是否具备正确的文化和流程去寻找合适的项目。Keytruda就是一个例子。他们自己并没有开发这个。

Stig Now you go out and you acquire a different R and D. Can of course say, Well, isn't that the same? You have to have people who can also get post and you have to figure out if they have the right culture, the right process to go out and find the right projects. Keytruda has just been one of the examples. They didn't develop that themselves.

他们收购了某些东西，结果比最初预期的成功得多，达到了三比三十的成效。所以我不确定。这非常棘手。我不喜欢内部所有权缺失，也不喜欢每当涉及监管时存在巨大未知。

There was something that they acquired and then just became a lot more successful thirty:thirty than they originally thought. And so I don't know. It's very tricky. I don't like the lack of insider ownership. Don't like the big unknown whenever it comes to regulation.

三比五十 这时有些听众可能会说，但Stig，你刚刚推荐了Uber。谈到糟糕的内部所有权和监管对你不利。是的，你说得完全正确。我们就当那没发生过吧。Stig 但关于默克公司，我确实有些担忧。

Thirty:fifty Then some listeners are tuning in and are like, But Stig, you just pitched Uber. Talk about poor insider ownership and regulation going against you. Yes, you're absolutely right. Let's just pretend that didn't happen. Stig But there are some things there about Merck I'm concerned about.

当然你可以说，这些都已经反映在股价里了。我认为你说得很对，确实如此。关于Toby提到的股票回购，我会仔细查看代理文件。我不是质疑Toby说的不对，只是我见过太多管理层在错误时机回购股票，或者因为他们有强烈的三比五十的动机去这么做。

Then you can of course say, Well, it's all priced in. And I think you're absolutely right, it is all priced in. In terms of Toby's point about share buybacks, I would look very carefully at the proxy. I'm not questioning what Toby's saying is the right thing. I've seen a lot of management buy back stock at the wrong time or because they really very much had an incentive thirty:fifty to do

所以这绝对是我会关注的一点。

that. So that's definitely something I would look

股票回购真正有效的前提是公司正在变得更好。至少你可以用这个框架来衡量。否则，你可能宁愿以股息形式获取回报，即便需要为此缴税。至于默克是否在变好，对我来说很难判断。

Share buyback really only works if the company is getting better. At least that's a framework you can put into it. Otherwise, you might want to get it as dividend even if you have to pay taxes of it. Whether or not Merck is getting better is sort of like it's very tricky for me to determine.

Stig 好的，太棒了。谢谢你，Stig。这绝对是个可能被归入'太难'范畴的案例，但我实在抵挡不住市盈率的诱惑，所以必须推荐它。

Stig Well, awesome. Thank you, Stig. I think it's definitely one that can fall in a too hard pile, but I just couldn't resist the PE. So I had to pitch it.

好的，哈利。非常感谢你推荐默克公司。托比，轮到你了。

Alright, Harry. Thank you very much for your Merck pick. Toby, you're the hot seat.

谢谢，迪克。我有个推荐，叫做Bath and Body Works，股票代码是BBWI。这不是几年前破产的Bed Bath and Beyond。

Thanks, Dick. I have a pick. It's called Bath and Body Works. The ticket is b b w I. It's not Bed Bath and Beyond, which went bankrupt a few years ago.

这是从L Brands分拆出来的公司。它与Bed Bath and Beyond的价值主张不同，但属于同一类别。如果你不太熟悉这类事物——就像我之前一样——它们可能占据类似的市场空间。上周末我和儿子在Del Amo商场做了实地考察，这家店里有人，而商场其他地方相当冷清。

This is a spin out from L Brands. It's a different value proposition to Bed Bath and Beyond, but it's the same cut. You know, it might occupy the same kind of space if you're not familiar particularly with these things, which which I was not. I did do a channel check at the Del Amo Mall over the weekend with my son. And there were people in this store and the rest of the mall was pretty quiet.

这让我有点惊讶，因为我平时逛商场时不会特别关注这些，而且我也不常去商场。他们主要销售香氛产品，这个概念很宽泛，但这就是他们的营销方式。这意味着他们既有个人香氛也有家居香氛。

So I was a little bit surprised by that because it's not something that I pay attention to as I walk around necessarily or not that I go to malls very much either. What they sell is fragrance. That's a very broad kind of idea to be selling, but that's how they sell it. That's how they market it. And so what that means is that they have personal fragrances and house fragrances.

如果你阅读相关研究报告，店员们坚信他们销售的蜡烛燃烧时间更长、气味更佳。店里还有其他商品，但他们特别以蜡烛为傲。这就是他们的价值主张。顾客非常喜欢Bath and Body Works，对这个品牌相当忠诚。

And if you read some of the research on it, the people who work in the store believe that they sell candles that burn longer and smell better than everybody else. They have other stuff in there, but they're very proud of the the candle. So that's a value proposition. They have customers really like Bath and Body Works. They're they're quite loyal to this brand.

令我惊讶的是，在零售业普遍疲软的时期，它仍持续增长——特别是因为他们主要依赖实体店。直到最近，他们几乎完全依赖实体店，数字战略是近期才有的。如我所说，公司从L Brands分拆出来，大约在2020年上市，发行价为20美元。

And in it it it kind of amazes me, but it has continued to grow through this sort of period of retail weakness, particularly because they're mostly store based. But until very recently, they're almost exclusively store based. They've had this digital strategy only more recently. The, the company spun out of as I said, the company spun out of Elle Brands and went public in about '20, '21, 2020, near the 2020. Out of they listed at $20 out of the gate.

当时非常受欢迎，在2021至2022年的模因股热潮中曾涨至80美元。由于疫情期间人们居家时大量购买家居用品，他们可能超额盈利了。因此需要消化股价高估的问题，期间盈利表现不佳，因为需要调整之前的超额盈利。但从估值角度看，现在是个很有吸引力的机会。目前股价约28美元。

They were very popular, and they ran up to $80 in that sort of meme stock craziness through '21 at '22. And I and they're probably over earning as as, you know, when people were home and are spending a lot of money on stuff for the house. And so they've had to work off that stock price overvaluation and, you know, that looks like they've had earnings haven't been great for a period of that time because some of that overearning has had to come off. But, I think from a valuation perspective, it's a very sort of compelling opportunity. So the stock price is $28 ish today.

该市值水平约为59亿美元。企业价值为10.4，意味着他们背负着约50亿至45亿美元的债务，这通常不是我喜欢的。但我认为他们能够承受。今年他们拥有7.5亿美元的自由现金流，按市值计算收益率达10%至12%，更接近12%的自由现金流收益率，这非常可观。他们的债务覆盖倍数很高。

Market capitalization at that level is about $5,900,000,000. Enterprise value is 10.4, which means that they're carrying about $5,000,000,000, 4 and a half billion dollars of debt, which I don't usually love. But I think they can carry it. They've got free cash flow of $750,000,000 this year, which on the market cap is a 10 to 12%, more like a 12% yield, free cash flow yield, which is gigantic. They cover their debt many times over.

当前市盈率为7.5倍。企业价值与息税前利润比为7.7。市现率为6.3。从这些指标看非常非常便宜。自股价高点以来，他们一直在持续回购股票。

The p at this level is seven and a half. EV EBIT is 7.7. Price to cash flow is 6.3. So very, very cheap on those kind of metrics. They've been buying back stock pretty consistently since the top.

他们刚上市时流通股数接近2.8亿股，现在已缩减至2.12亿股，过去几年回购力度很大——这点我很欣赏，因为股价持续走低。跟踪该股的分析师们普遍认为合理价位在41至45美元之间，当前28美元存在很大折价。

So they they just after they listed, they had 200 and nearly 280,000,000 shares out. They've currently got 212,000,000 shares out, so they bought back quite aggressively over the last few years, which I which I like seeing because the stock's been been down. I think the analysts who sort of follow this stock have got this. They like the stock around 41 to $45. So $28, it's a very big discount to that.

股价远低于历史高点。我认为当前估值相当便宜。在零售业整体疲软的大环境下（我关注的多数标的都表现不佳），他们仍持续超预期，这点令人印象深刻。公司最近更换了CEO。

It's way off. It's it's it's all time high. And I think it looks I think it looks pretty cheap here. They've continued to beat, which I think is impressive given what the retail backdrop, which has been pretty weak for most of the things that I follow. They've changed CEOs.

我不清楚这些人有多大影响力，也不假装特别了解他们，但他们请到了一位耐克高管。他将协助他们进行国际扩张和数字战略，这两个领域一直是他们的短板。但他来自一个表现优异的背景，所以他们对他能胜任这个职位抱有很高期望。我认为风险回报比在这里相当不错。

I don't know how much impact these people have, and I don't pretend to know these people particularly well, but they've got a guy who's a Nike executive. He's gonna help them with the international expansion and their digital strategy, which are the two areas where they've been a little bit weaker. But he comes from a background where they've done very well. So this they're very hopeful that he can he can do well in this position. I think the the risk reward scenario, I think, is is pretty good here.

我认为下行空间有限，因为当前估值确实处于低谷水平。它现在便宜得前所未有，现金流创造能力极强。他们正在这个价位回购股票，这让我感觉底部支撑就在附近。

I think your downside is limited because it's it's really trading at trough valuations. It's as cheap as it's been. It's very cash flow generative. They're buying back stock at this level. So that says to me that there's a four around here somewhere.

此外，我认为12%的自由现金流收益率可能低得离谱。你很容易发现这已经是他们的长期平均水平，所以仅相当于五年价值。他们以往的市现率更像是8倍，现在只有6.3倍。光是回归均值就有20%到30%的股价上涨空间。

And then I think 12% free cash flow yield is probably silly. You could easily see that being their long run their long run average, so it's only five years worth. They've been more like eight times price to cash flow, so it's 6.3 times. They've got a fair just to get back to average. There's 20 or 30% embedded in the stock.

我认为通过股票回购和持续的增长，这只股票还有很大的上涨空间。大约有50%到60%的上涨潜力。但风险在于它是一家零售商，采取的是非常小众的策略，而我不是其目标客户群，所以我不完全理解它的吸引力。但在我的投资组合中——这是我的中大型价值股组合，它只是30只股票之一——它具备所有我喜欢的特质：充足的自由现金流、股票回购、估值处于低谷。我认为如果你的投资期限是两到三五年，这是一个合理的赌注。

And then I think with the buyback and a little bit of, like, continued growth, I think there's there's quite a lot of upside in this stock. I think it's like a 50 to 60 upside, but the risks are that it's a it's a retailer. It's got a very sort of niche approach, and I'll I'm not the target demographic, and so I don't fully understand the the the desire for it. But in my portfolio, which is this is my mid large cap value portfolio, it's one of 30 names, has all the things that I like, lots of free cash flow, buying back stock, trough valuation. And I I think it's a it's a reasonable bet if your timeline is, like, two to three to five years.

这是我的选择，股票代码是BBWI。

That's my pick. BBWI is the ticker.

很棒的选择，托比。它让我感兴趣的原因是我也有类似的观察，但从没想过从投资角度考虑。这就是你和我的区别。我总是看到这家店的人流量比其他商场店铺多，这是第一点。

Great pick, Toby. The reason it's very interesting to me is I have had similar observation, and I never thought about it from an investing perspective. So that is the difference between you and me. It's like, always saw this store always had more people than the rest of the stores in the mall. So that's number one.

第二，店员总是非常友好，提供样品并邀请顾客进店。它与商场其他店铺氛围截然不同，尤其是近几年商场越来越缺乏吸引力，几乎像衰败的城镇，因为很多东西都转到线上了。这家店通常有不同的氛围，他们主营香薰蜡烛。

Number two, the staff was always very friendly, offering samples and inviting people into the store. It had a different vibe than the rest of the mall, especially, in the last few years, I'm seeing the malls are becoming less and less inviting. It almost feels like a rundown town because a lot of things are moved online. This store usually has a different vibe. They are into candles.

他们还做身体喷雾，特别是女性产品。很多顾客对其非常忠诚。事实上，当我家附近那家关门时，我们不得不去别处寻找。所以我认为他们确实培养出了某种独特的客户忠诚度，这是其他地方无法获得的。

They're all also into body spray, especially for women. And a lot of them really, really are loyal to that. And in fact, when the one that was closed near our home, like, you know, I know we had to search for another one somewhere else. So definitely I think they have some kind of a customer loyalty that they have figured out. It's not something that you can get somewhere else.

他们自产自销，这是他们的独特模式。另外店铺面积都很小，运营成本可能远低于大型零售商，这是他们的另一优势。

They kind of they make their own. They sell. So that's their unique mode. The other thing is the stores are all very small, so their cap OpEx might be much smaller than, say, a big retailer. So that's the other advantage they have.

还有一点我觉得，这个行业某种程度上是防AI的，可以说不会被AI颠覆。但需要观察经济衰退是否会影响他们，他们是否具有周期性？这是我想问你的问题，托比。

And the other thing I feel is, like, you know, this is one business where it's kind of AI proof, you can say. It can't be disrupted by AI. But we'll have to see whether recession impacts them. Are they cyclical? That was my question to you, Toby.

因为如果出现经济衰退，像蜡烛这类物品，以及其他一些东西，人们可能会在那个时期尽量避免或容易放弃。它们属于可有可无的消费品。所以我认为这些是他们面临的部分风险。但除此之外，正如你所说，从三到五年的周期来看，现在的价格可能是过去相比最低的之一。

Like, because if there is recession, this is one of the things, candles, and other things that people will kind of, you know, try avoid or easy to avoid at that point of time. It's nice to have. So I think those are some of the risks I see for them. But otherwise, as you said, like, for a three to five year term, it's probably you're getting it's one of the lowest price points compared to the past.

是的。我认为这是个有趣的观点。我觉得自2022年以来，市场大部分领域已经经历了一定程度的经济衰退。大多数人正感受到工资缩水与生活开支增加的双重压力，这在各类数据中都有所体现。比如，很多人开始停止偿还学生贷款。

Yeah. I think that's I think it's an interesting point. I think that we I think that there has been some recession for a lot of the market since '22. I think that the mark I think that most people are feeling a drop off in their wages and an increase in the amount that they spend, And I think that's reflected in lots of different data series. One of them is that, you know, people are people are aren't making payments on their student loans.

人们不再支付汽车贷款，信用卡账单也出现拖欠。违约现象相当普遍。我认为这些情况已经反映在许多企业的经营数据中。可以说这些企业其实已经在经历轻微的经济衰退。

People aren't making payments on their car loans. People aren't making payments on their credit cards. There's a lot of delinquency out there. And so I I think that that is already reflected in the numbers for for many of these businesses. So I think that they have been suffering through a little recession.

即便在这样的时期，他们仍能逆势保持增长——虽然面临营收阻力，却持续超出预期指引，维持盈利水平。虽然由于日历效应（比如当月缺少周六等因素）导致收入小幅下滑，但他们仍预测明年会有1%到3%的增长。不过这个增速可能还跑不赢通胀。

And even through that period, they've managed to continue to grow despite this sort of revenue headwinds. They're exceeding guidance, maintaining profitability. There was a little revenue decline, they said due to calendar shift effects, not enough Saturdays in the month or something like that. They're still forecasting growth for the next year, one to 3%. Like, that might be under inflation.

这可能完全是成本压力所致，并未体现在单位数据上，但我仍认为这段时期内的任何增长都是积极的。因此，如果他们仍在增长，这表明他们或许能艰难避开经济衰退。所以我认为，现在仍是适合布局这类头寸的时机。相比2021年市场狂热时期，我肯定更愿意在当前周期阶段持有这类头寸。

That might be all cost pressure and not reflected in unit, but I still think that any sort of growth through this period is a positive. So I think if they're still growing, that indicates that possibly they are going to struggle through avoid the recession. And so I I think it's I I still think this is a good time to be put in this position on. I'd certainly rather a position like this at this point in the cycle than when it was roaring in 2021.

斯提格，托比，你提到这不是Bed Bath and Beyond很有意思。我其实曾推荐过它——不知道你是否记得。我现在可以自豪地说这事，毕竟它已经破产了。三十比五十

Stig So, Toby, it was interesting that you would mention this is not Bed Bath and Beyond. I actually pitched it once. Don't know if you remember. I say it proudly since it has now gone bankrupt. Thirty:fifty

我觉得它会卷土重来。

I think it's coming back.

斯蒂格，一切都突然回想起来了。其实前几天我妻子路过这里时，正好你发邮件说要推介Bath and Body Works。她一脸疑惑地问，什么？你在看什么？为什么关注Bath and Body Works？

Stig It's all going screaming back. Actually, my wife walked by here the other day whenever you sent the email that you're going to pitch Bath and Body Works. She was like, What? What are you looking at? Why are looking at Bath and Body Works?

我解释说，不不，托比给我发了邮件，他想讨论这个，所以我得先了解清楚。她盯着我说，你居然不知道这是什么？它们遍地都是啊，我们还一起去过呢。

I was like, No, no, Toby sent me an email. He wants to talk about it and so I need to figure out what it is. She looked at me and she was like, You don't know what it is? They're everywhere. We've been to one together.

这点我必须强调。当我翻阅最新财报时，首先关注了债务到期情况，第一反应是：哦，看起来不算太糟糕——

I'll be first to say that. So I was trying to go through the most recent presentation and I looked at the debt maturities and the first thing I thought was, Oh, it doesn't look thirty:fifty too

尤其是在再融资期间和他们支付的利率条件下。

bad whenever it's being refinanced and the interest rate that they're paying.

但转念一想：你居然在研究债务到期问题，这本身不就是个危险信号吗？所以这取决于你戴什么眼镜看问题（立场），也取决于你打算下多大赌注。

And then I thought to myself, Well, you're looking at debt maturities. Isn't that a bad thing in the first place? And so it sort of depends on what kind of glasses that you have on. It also depends on how big you're going to swing.

我同意。在继续之前，我同意这一点。我查看了他们的债务情况。55亿美元债务对应55亿或45亿美元市值，或者60亿美元市值对应5点几的债务，这总让我犹豫，我不喜欢看到这种情况。我也看了他们的债务到期时间，在我看来安排得还算合理。

I agree. Just before we move on from that, I agree. I had a look at their debt. 5 and a half billion dollars on a 5 and a half billion or 4 and a half billion dollars on a five point on a $6,000,000,000 market cap always gives me pause too, and I don't like seeing that. And I looked at their debt maturities too, and it looked to me like it was turned out pretty well.

我记得他们好像是每年处理大约5亿美元的债务块，对吗？

I think they were doing, like, $500,000,000 chunks on a yearly basis was my recollection. Is that right?

是的，听起来差不多是这样。

Yeah. That that sounds about right.

我觉得这种安排相当合理。他们需要持续努力应对，但不需要一次性处理45亿美元债务，而是每次处理5亿美元，我认为这是可行的。不过展期时他们可能要支付更高利率，几乎可以肯定。

Which I thought was like that was was pretty reasonable. Think, like, they're gonna be they're working all the time to do that, but it's not doing a five point it's not doing 4 and a half billion dollars in one go. It's it's 500,000,000 at a time, which I think is achievable, but they're probably paying higher rates as they roll, almost certainly.

确实。每当想到他们通过回购和分红返还给股东的资金量时，我个人更希望他们能先偿还部分债务——虽然他们会强调2027年到期的2.84亿美元债务利率是6.7%，2028年到期的4.44亿利率是5.3%。用Excel计算可能显示不必急于还债，但出于保守原则我更倾向减债。我还是看好这只股票的。

Stig Yeah. Whenever you think about how much money they return to the shareholders through buyback and dividends, there's just a part of me who would probably prefer they just pay out some of that debt even though they will be the first to say that I think the first maturity here is like $284,000,000 in 2027, 6.7%, and then have four forty four maturing in 2028, 5.3%. So you can probably in an Excel sheet say that they shouldn't work off that debt. It's probably just more from principles of being a bit more conservative. I like the stock.

我绝非他们业务领域的专家。但有个现象很有趣——托比你是香水专家（至少比我懂），请指正：是否可以说Bath and Body Works主导的是香水、身体护理这类情感属性强的品类，而Bed Bath & Beyond更多是毛巾床单这类商品化产品？

I don't by any means consider myself an expert in what they do. Do think it was kind of interesting. So correct me if I'm wrong, you being an expert in the fragrances, or hopefully more than me, Toby. Is there a case to be made where Bath and Body Works dominate, let's call it more emotional categories like fragrance, body care, whereas the Bath, Bath and Beyond are just a bit more commoditized, your towels and sheets. Don't know.

我可能想太多了。他们80%收入来自会员这点值得探讨吗？简单做个同业对比：我们之前讨论过的Ulta Beauty会员贡献95%（这是顶尖水平），北美丝芙兰也是80%，星巴克则是53%。

I might be overthinking this. Is there something to be said about that 80% coming from members? I should probably just do a very quick peer comparison here. Ulta Beauty, which is one of the picks we talked about before, Toby again, speaking right to our core competence when we talk about cosmetics, but they had 95% from members, but that's also top of the class. You have something like Sephora in North America is also 80%, Starbucks is 53%.

我知道这是完全不同的产品类型，但我该如何看待那80%的会员忠诚度？

I know that's a very different type of product, but how should I look at that 80% loyalty from members?

我认为这是非常非常积极的现象。当你看到他们让消费者给喜欢的品牌排名时——虽然我现在一时找不到具体数据——但沐浴护肤品牌在其中名列前茅。有少数几个品牌排在它前面，比如星巴克这类耳熟能详的名字，而Bath and Body Works紧随其后，甚至超过了Target。

I think that's a very, very positive thing. And I think when you look at they ask people to rank the I'm just struggling to find it at the moment, but they ask them to rank the brands that they like. And it all it ranks there's a there's a handful of brands above it, and I forget what they are, but it's like Starbucks and, you know, very well known brands. And then Bath and Body Works is right up there. It's one of the it's higher than Target.

在这个群体中这是个极具知名度的品牌。消费者表现出极高的忠诚度，他们进店时会产生愉悦感。虽然我觉得这种心理效应有点玄学——如果失去这种情感联结会怎样？

It's it's a very well known brand in this group. And they have people seem to be very loyal. They get the good feelings when they go into the stores. I think, you know, that stuff's a little bit voodoo, that sort of psychology. What happens if you lose that?

我个人对这种感性因素持怀疑态度，更倾向于量化分析。从数据来看，他们80%销售额来自会员的业绩表现很有说服力。消费者一旦进店就会形成很强的忠诚度。

I don't I'm mistrustful of that stuff. I tend to be more of a quantitative. I look at the numbers more. And I think that their performance is born out in their numbers and born out in that 80% figure that you quote that most of the sales come from members. People seem to be very loyal once they go to the store.

他们喜欢反复光顾这家店。我在商场观察时很惊讶——整个商场非常冷清，这家位置偏僻的店铺却吸引了三位顾客同时前往。

They like going back to the store. They like visiting regularly. I was surprised. Like I said, when I was walking around the mall, the mall was very empty and this store was kind of a little bit out of the way. And I was walking towards it following three people and all of them went to the store.

我在门口探头查看时，发现这个不大的店铺里有十几位顾客，而整个商场也就这么多人。虽然这不属于我的投资评估流程，但股价暴跌显然与客流量无关。

So I I just stuck my head in at the entrance and it was like there were a dozen people in there, not a huge store, whereas, like, there were a dozen people in the entire mall. So I thought that I was surprised that they were doing as well as they were. Not that I would ever that's not part of my investment process. I just wanted to see what, like, why why is the stock down so much? And it's not lack of foot traffic.

客流完全没有问题。可能只是在消化2021年的过度扩张，加上轻微消费衰退。60亿美元市值对应债务确实吓人，但考虑到7.5亿美元自由现金流，当前估值近乎腰斩。若市值回升至120亿，170亿左右的企业价值会使债务看起来合理得多。

It's not a lack of traffic. It may just be that they're working off their 2021 hangover, and there is a little consumer recession going on. And the debt looks scary against the market cap of $6,000,000,000, but, you know, there's an argument to be made with $750,000,000 of free cash flow. It's probably about half price. And so with a market cap closer to 12,000,000,000, the debt looks less frightening at that at that kind of level of EV of like 17 or something like that.

你或许能支撑这类自由现金流，加上股票回购和持续增长，这些数字明年会更高更亮眼。我觉得这是我喜欢的那种股票，相当不对称。我认为下行风险有限，而相对于承担的风险，上行空间相当不错。这只是只稍显冷门的股票，品牌未必不知名，只是股票本身未被充分发掘。

You could probably support this sort of free cash flow Plus with the buybacks and probably the continued growth, those numbers will be higher and more impressive next year. I I think it's a I think it's a it's a the kind of stock that I like, I think it's quite asymmetric. I think it's got limited downside and pretty good upside for the risk that you're taking. And it's just a little undiscovered stock, not necessarily an undiscovered brand, just undiscovered stock.

确实。只要看看数据，考虑到它是零售业，表现就非常出色。80%的产品在美国制造，可以说他们非常依赖北美市场。也可以说存在一些关税和冲击缓冲。现在57%的销售来自非商场渠道，而他们的目标是达到75%。

Yeah. Certainly, whenever you look at the numbers and you think about that it's retail, it looks very good. 80% of products are manufactured in The US, so you can look at it as they're very dependent on North America. Can also say that there are some tariffs and shock minimization there. Now 57% is off malls and they want to have 75%.

他们明确设定了这个目标。不想再过度依赖商场。我们都知道全国商场的现状。还有个因素是线上购买、店内取货变得更便捷，这非常符合他们想要打造的体验。正因如此，他们也希望让到店购物更便利些。

Have this declared goal. They don't want to be as much in malls anymore. We all know what's happening with malls across the country. Stig There was also an element that is a little bit easier for buy online, pick up in store, which very much speaks to this experience that they want to create. They want to, for that reason also, make it a little bit easier to visit the store.

这总是很有趣，因为如果我说线上购买店内取货占30%，这算高还是低？你之前提到Target是35%到40%。我也知道这取决于门店位置等因素，没那么简单。

Stig It's always interesting because if I said, Oh, it's like 30%, buy online, pick up in store. Is that high or low? You mentioned Target before, they're 35 to 40. I also know that it depends on how much like where they're located. It's just not as simple as that.

比如Gap旗下的Old Navy只有15%到20%。观察这些差异很有意思，毕竟业务模式截然不同。就像我们在Ulta Beauty看到的，他们掌握越来越多用户数据，通过APP进行追加销售。这家公司是否拥有足够大的数据规模，能在30:30时段精准投放广告？

Gap Old Navy, for example, is like 15 to 20. So it's interesting to see, and again, very, very different businesses. It is something and we also saw that with Ulta Beauty, the way that they have more and more data about you, the way they upsell in their app. Is the company big enough to have that critical mass of data to hit you with the right advertising thirty:thirty probably?

他们有个优势是新品上市周期极短。疫情期间，他们2020年3月就推出了洗手液。整个流程只需五六周。所以某个产品畅销就加大投入，滞销就立即砍掉。

Well, one thing that they do is they have very short lead times for new products. So in COVID, they were able to get out a hand sanitizer by March 2020. They have this, like, five or six week turnaround. So they if something's working, they lean into it. If something's not working, they cut it off really quickly.

从这方面看他们是优秀的零售商，数据驱动型的优秀零售商。我认为他们对目标的优化做得很好，在这方面表现相当出色。

So that's been they're good retailers from that perspective. Like, they're good data driven retailers. So I think that they're pretty well optimized for what they're seeking to achieve. I think they're doing a good job there.

好的，托比。非常感谢。观众们可以在哪里了解更多关于你的信息？

Stig All right, Toby. Thank you so much. Where can the audience learn more about you?

我在Twitter上的账号是Greenbackd，g r e e n b a c k d。我还有一个网站acquirersmultiple.com，上面有很多低估值但优质的投资选择。我管理两只ETF，ZIG是一只专注于美国中型深度价值股的基金，包含许多类似Bath and Body Works的小公司，它们现金流良好，正在回购股票，估值极低；另一只是规模更小的微型基金DEEP。DEEP和ZIG会追踪价值、质量和规模小等因素，这些因素自2011年2月以来长期表现不佳，仅在2021至2022年短暂回暖。当前估值折扣已达到自1999年以来相对于成长股的最大差距，历史上出现这种折扣后的五到十年往往表现优异。

I'm on Twitter at Greenbackd, g r e e n b a c k d. I have acquirersmultiple.com where I have a whole lot of low value good value picks. And I run two ETFs, ZIG, which is a mid cap deep valued domestic US, lots of small companies very similar to Bath and Body Works where they're generating good cash flow, buying back stock, very undervalued, and DEEP, which is a smaller micro fund. DEEP and Zig will sort of track factors like value quality and small size, and those factors have been very beaten down for an extended period of time, really starting since 02/2011. There's a little reprieve from 2021 to 2022, but at the widest valuation discount to the growth year end of the market going back to 1999, last time we saw these sort of discounts, the the following five or ten years were very good.

因此尽管历史数据不佳，我对当前小盘价值股非常乐观。这就是我作为逆向投资者的风格——当形势看起来最糟糕时，正是布局的好时机。我认为现在是小盘价值投资者的绝佳时机。谢谢邀请我，斯蒂格。

So I'm very optimistic for small value right now even though the the historical record doesn't look great. This is the kind of investor that I am, the contrarian that I am. You wanna put these positions on when when you look when it looks ugly like this. And so I I think this is a very good time to be a small value investor. Thanks for having me, Stig.

见到你总是很愉快。

It's always good seeing you.

真是太精彩了。哈里，观众们在哪里可以了解更多关于你的信息？

That was absolutely wonderful. Hari, where can the audience know more about you?

嘿，斯蒂格。和你们两位交谈总是很愉快。大家可以在Twitter（现在叫X）上找到我，我的账号是Hari Rama，期待听到大家对今天讨论的反馈和交流。

Hey, Sikh. Fun as ever talking to you both. Everyone can find me on Twitter or X now. Hari Rama is my handle and looking forward to all the conversations, feedback about today's pitch as well.

见到你们总是很高兴。托比、哈里，一如既往感谢你们的时间，我们下个季度再见，听众朋友们我们下周见。

It's always good seeing you. Toby, Hari, thank you as always for your time and we'll see each other again next quarter and for the listeners next week.

Stig 感谢您收听TIP。请确保在您喜欢的播客应用中关注《我们研究亿万富翁》，不错过任何一期节目。访问investorspodcast.com可获取我们的节目笔记、文字稿或课程。本节目仅供娱乐目的，做出任何决策前请咨询专业人士。

Stig Thank you for listening to TIP. Make sure to follow We Study Billionaires on your favorite podcast app and never miss out on episodes. To access our show notes, transcripts, or courses, go to the investorspodcast.com. This show is for entertainment purposes only. Before making any decision, consult a professional.

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