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You're listening to TIP.
在今天的节目中，我们将探讨彼得·蒂尔的《从零到一》这本书。
On today's episode, we'll be exploring the book Zero to One by Peter Thiel.
《从零到一》是我最喜爱的关于创新、垄断以及真正打造持久事物所需条件的书籍之一。
Zero to One is one of my favorite books on the topic of innovation, monopolies, and what it really takes to build something that's enduring.
蒂尔是我所见过的背景最有趣的投资者之一。
Thiel has one of the most interesting backgrounds of any investor I've come across.
从根本上说，蒂尔是一位企业家。
At his core, Thiel is an entrepreneur.
蒂尔组建的第一个团队被称为PayPal黑手党，因为他的许多前同事后来互相帮助创办并投资了成功的科技公司。
The first team that Thiel built became known as the PayPal mafia because so many of his former colleagues went on to help each other start and invest in successful tech companies.
蒂尔挑战了这样一种观点：进步仅仅来自于重复已有的成功做法。
Thiel challenges the idea that progress comes from simply doing more of what already works.
相反，他认为最大的突破发生在有人创造出完全崭新事物的时候，用他的话说，就是当一家企业从零走向一的时候。
Instead, he argues that the biggest breakthroughs happen when someone creates something entirely new or in his words, when a business goes from zero to one.
我想介绍这本书，因为它迫使投资者超越表格和短期指标，深入思考竞争优势、长期价值创造以及行业未来。
I wanted to cover this book because it forces investors to look beyond the spreadsheets and the near term metrics and instead think deeply about competitive advantages, long term value creation, and the future of an industry.
就像投资一样，人们很容易认为成功来自于随大流和在熟悉的市场中竞争。
Much like investing, it's easy to assume that success comes from following the crowd and competing in familiar markets.
但正如蒂尔所解释的，竞争往往会摧毁利润，而真正优秀的企业则完全避开了竞争。
But as Thiel explains, competition often destroys profits, while truly great businesses escape competition altogether.
《从零到一》提醒我们，最有价值的公司并不是通过复制现有事物而建立的。
Zero to one is a reminder that the most valuable companies are not built by copying what already exists.
它们是通过以不同的眼光看待世界，并据此采取行动而建立的。
They're built by seeing the world differently and acting on that insight.
在本集末尾，我还会分享我对一家经历过自己‘从零到一’时刻的公司的看法，这家公司就是优步。
At the end of the episode, I'll also share my thoughts around a company that had its own zero to one moment, and that company is Uber.
目前关于优步护城河的强度有很多争论，我认为它是当今市场中最有趣的研究案例之一。
There's a lot of debate currently around the strength of Uber's moat, and I find it to be one of the most interesting case studies in today's market.
那么，希望你们喜欢今天这期关于彼得·蒂尔《从零到一》的节目。
So with that, I hope you enjoy today's episode on Zero to One by Peter Thiel.
自2014年以来，通过超过1.9亿次下载，我们深入剖析价值投资的原则，并与全球一些顶尖的资产管理人对话。
Since 2014 and through more than 190,000,000 downloads, we break down the principles of value investing and sit down with some of the world's best asset managers.
我们发掘市场中的潜在机会，探索金钱、幸福与美好生活艺术之间的交集。
We uncover potential opportunities in the market and explore the intersection between money, happiness, and the art of living a good life.
本节目不构成投资建议。
This show is not investment advice.
仅用于信息和娱乐目的。
It's intended for informational and entertainment purposes only.
主持人和嘉宾表达的所有观点均为其个人意见，他们可能持有讨论的证券。
All opinions expressed by hosts and guests are solely their own, and they may have investments in the securities discussed.
接下来，有请您的主持人，克莱·芬克。
Now for your host, Clay Finck.
大家好。
Hey everybody.
欢迎回到《投资者播客》。
Welcome back to The Investor's Podcast.
我是你们的主持人，克莱·芬克。
I'm your host, Clay Finck.
在今天的节目中，我将与大家讨论彼得·蒂尔的《从零到一》这本书。
On today's episode, I'll be chatting about the book Zero to One by Peter Thiel.
彼得·蒂尔是现代最成功且最具非传统思维的投资者之一。
Peter Thiel is one of the most successful and unconventional investors of the modern era.
2005年，蒂尔创立了创始人基金，旨在投资那些正在打造革命性技术的创业者。
In 2005, Thiel launched The Founders Fund, which sought to invest in founders who were building revolutionary technologies.
他非传统的投资风格使他在SpaceX、Facebook、PayPal、Palantir和Stripe初创时期就成功进行了风险投资。
His unconventional investment style led him to make successful venture capital investments in companies like SpaceX, Facebook, PayPal, Palantir, and Stripe in their infancy.
他的著作《从零到一》之所以重要，是因为它提炼了他用来在市场尚未理解垄断真正力量之前就识别出垄断企业的思维模型。
His book Zero to One matters because it distills the mental models he used to spot monopolies before the rest of the market understood their true power.
蒂尔没有教授渐进式改进，而是挑战投资者去寻找能够创造全新事物并主导细分市场的公司。
Rather than teaching incremental improvement, Thiel challenges investors to look for businesses that create something entirely new and can dominate a niche.
他的框架深刻影响了风险资本家及其他长期投资者评估基于零到一技术突破所建立的企业的思维方式。
His framework has deeply influenced how venture capitalists and other long term investors evaluate businesses that are built on a zero to one technological breakthrough.
对于价值投资者来说，这个框架尤其有用，因为它迫使你从电子表格中抽身，思考一家企业是否真正具备成为主导者的潜力。
For value investors, this framework is especially useful because it really forces you to step back from the spreadsheets and ask yourself whether a business truly has the potential to become dominant.
我不只是单纯地看一家企业的财务数据，仅凭数字判断它是贵还是便宜，作为投资者，我对此深有体会。
Instead of simply looking at a business' financials and determining whether it's expensive or cheap based solely on the numbers, I felt this firsthand as an investor.
曾经有几次，我花了数小时将模型精确到小数点后两位，但后来才意识到，我从未停下来问过这家企业本身是否真的有潜力成为主导者。
There have been times where I spent hours refining a model down to the second decimal place only to realize later that I never stopped to ask whether the business itself could actually become dominant.
《从零到一》提醒了我，即使你的电子表格再完美，如果你建模的公司根本就没有机会产生重大影响，那也无济于事。
Zero to one was a reminder for me that a flawless spreadsheet will not save you if you're modeling a company that never had a chance to matter in the first place.
正如蒂尔所说：商业中的每一个时刻都只发生一次。
As Thiel puts it, Every moment in business happens only once.
下一个比尔·盖茨不会去开发操作系统。
The next Bill Gates will not build an operating system.
下一个拉里·佩奇或谢尔盖·布林不会去打造搜索引擎。
The next Larry Page or Sergey Brin will not make a search engine.
下一个马克·扎克伯格也不会去创建社交网络。
And the next Mark Zuckerberg won't create a social network.
如果你只是试图模仿这些人，那你并没有从他们身上学到东西。
If you're trying to copy these guys, you are not learning from them.
引文结束。
End quote.
一开始，我就非常欣赏蒂尔的这个洞见。
And right off the bat, I just love this insight from Thiel.
为了让一家伟大的公司持续保持卓越，它们必须不断创新并尝试新事物。
In order for a great company to remain great, they need to be innovating and trying new things.
否则，它们注定会失败。
Otherwise, they're destined for failure.
但你可以想象，创造新事物通常极其困难。
But as you can imagine, creating new things tends to be incredibly difficult.
而复制一个已经存在的模式要容易得多，而这恰恰是大多数人会做的事。
And copying a model that already exists is much easier and tends to be exactly what most people do.
当我审视我们投资者播客网络的业务时，我们在2014年推出一档讨论股票投资的播客时，迎来了自己的从零到一时刻。
When I look at our business here at The Investor's Podcast Network, we hit our own zero to one moment when we launched a podcast that discussed stock investing back in 2014.
在随后的几年里，尤其是2020年之后，我们看到大量播客涌入这个领域。我们知道，如果我们不创新、不创造新东西，我们的业务就注定会失败。
In the years that followed, especially after 2020, we then saw a tidal wave of podcasts enter the space And we knew that if we did not innovate and create something new, then our business was doomed for failure.
这让我想起杰夫·贝佐斯的一句话，他本质上说，他预测总有一天亚马逊会倒闭。
It reminds me of Jeff Bezos' line where he essentially said that he predicts that one day Amazon will go out of business.
正是这种现实促使亚马逊不断实验和创新，因为只有这样才能延续一家注定终将走向失败的企业的生命。
And this reality is what keeps Amazon experimenting and innovating because it's what's required to continue to extend the life of a business that's on its way to one day failing.
创新和创造新的做事方式，才是社会真正向前发展的途径。
Innovating and creating new ways of doing things is the way that society really progresses forward.
对一些人来说，这可能感觉像是在祈求奇迹的发生。
And for some, it might feel like you're sort of hoping for a miracle.
如果美国商业想要成功，它需要成千上万个奇迹同时发生。
If American business is going to succeed, it's going to need thousands of miracles to happen.
人类相对于其他物种最独特的地方，在于我们创造奇迹的能力。
What makes humans really unique relative to other species is our ability to work miracles.
而今天，我们把这些奇迹称为技术。
And today we call those miracles technology.
技术使我们能够以更少的资源做更多的事，不断提升我们的基本能力至更高水平。
Technology is what enables us to continue to do more with less, ratcheting up our fundamental capabilities to an ever higher level.
如果你想找到下一个重磅投资机会，那很可能存在于正在创造突破性从零到一技术的公司中。
If you want to find the next home run investment opportunity, it's probably in a company that's creating groundbreaking zero to one technologies.
但创造这类奇迹并没有固定公式。
But there's no formula for creating these types of miracles.
公式不可能存在，因为每一项创新都是全新且独特的，没有任何权威能给你提供创新的蓝图。
A formula cannot exist because every innovation is new and unique, and no authority can give you the blueprint on how to be innovative.
当我们思考未来时，我们期盼一个不断进步的未来。
When we think about the future, we hope for a future of progress.
正如蒂尔所解释的，这种进步可以分为两种形式。
As Thiel explains, this progress can take one of two forms.
我们有横向或扩展性进步，这意味着复制已经成功的事物。
We have horizontal or extensive progress, which means copying things that already work.
横向进步很容易想象，因为我们已经知道它是什么样子。
Horizontal progress is easy to imagine because we already know what it looks like.
而垂直或深度进步意味着做新的事情，或者从零到一。
Whereas vertical or intensive progress means doing new things or going from zero to one.
垂直进步难以想象，因为它要求做别人从未做过的事。
Vertical progress is harder to imagine because it requires doing something nobody else has ever done.
如果你有一台打字机，然后制造出100台，那就是水平进步。
If you take one typewriter and build 100 of them, you've made horizontal progress.
如果你有一台打字机，然后造出一个文字处理软件，那就是垂直进步。
If you have a typewriter and build a word processor, you've made vertical progress.
我喜欢用交通方式来思考这个问题。
I like to think about this the way we would think about transportation.
制造更快的马是水平进步。
Building faster horses is horizontal progress.
它或许能带来一些边际改善，但你仍然受限于马的能力。
It might help with the margin, but you're still limited by the horse.
发明汽车是垂直进步，因为它彻底改变了可能性的边界。
Inventing the automobile is vertical progress because it changes what's possible altogether.
投资者往往高估了渐进式改进能带来的成就，而低估了真正范式转变的颠覆性力量。
Investors tend to overestimate how far incremental improvement can take them and underestimate how disruptive a true paradigm shift can be.
从宏观层面来看，水平进步的关键词就是全球化。
At a macro level, the single word for horizontal progress is globalization.
例如，美国见证了亚马逊和电子商务的崛起，近年来，我们还看到其他几家所谓的‘亚马逊’在各自地区兴起，比如中国的阿里巴巴、拉美地区的MercadoLibre，以及东南亚的Sea Limited。
For example, The US saw the rise of Amazon and e commerce, and we've seen several other, quote, Amazons emerge in their own form in recent years, whether that be Alibaba in China, MercadoLibre in Latin America, or Sea Limited in Southeast Asia.
在蒂尔看来，中国几十年来一直在模仿发达国家，从19世纪的铁路、20世纪的空调，到城市的建设方式无不如此。
In Thiel's view, China has been copying the developed world for decades now, from nineteenth century railroads and twentieth century air conditioning to how cities are built.
另一方面，垂直的从零到一进步的关键词就是技术。
On the flip side, the single word for vertical zero to one progress is technology.
近几十年来信息技术的飞速发展，使硅谷成为整个技术领域的中心。
The rapid progress of information technology in recent decades has made Silicon Valley the capital of technology in general.
自1971年以来，我们见证了全球化迅猛发展，而大部分技术进步都集中在信息技术领域。
Since 1971, we've seen rapid levels of globalization and most of the technological development has been confined to information technology.
在蒂尔看来，为了使人类持续进步，必须不断涌现出新的技术。
In Thiel's view, in order for humanity to continue to progress, it is essential that new technologies continue to emerge.
因为如果这些新兴市场国家的生活水平持续提高，并采用发达国家所使用的这些技术，那么能源生产将大幅增加，最终结果将是环境灾难。
Because if all of these emerging market countries see their standards of living continue to rise and adopt these technologies that are being used in developed countries, then energy production will increase substantially and the end result would be an environmental catastrophe.
在资源稀缺的世界里，没有新技术的全球化是不可持续的。
In a world of scarce resources, globalization without new technology is simply unsustainable.
当今社会面临的挑战是，既要构想又要创造新的技术，使二十一世纪比二十世纪更加和平与繁荣。
The challenge that society faces today is to both imagine and create the new technologies that can make the twenty first century more peaceful and prosperous than the twentieth century.
皮尔认为，新技术往往来自初创公司，或一群因改变世界使命而凝聚在一起的小团队，这并不令人意外。
And it shouldn't come as a surprise that Thiel believes that new technologies tend to come from startups or a small group of people brought together by a sense of mission to change the world for the better.
对此最简单的解释是，在大型组织中很难开发出新事物。
The easiest explanation for this is that it's hard to develop new things in big organizations.
而独自一人去做这件事则更加困难。
And it's even harder to do it by yourself.
官僚机构往往行动缓慢，且不愿承担太多风险。
Bureaucratic organizations tend to move slowly and not really take too much risk.
而初创公司则遵循这样一个原则：你需要与他人合作才能真正产生影响，但同时也必须保持足够小的规模，以避免官僚主义的束缚。
Whereas startups operate on the principle that you need to work with other people to actually make an impact, but you also need to stay small enough to keep bureaucracy at bay.
一家新公司的最重要优势是全新的思维方式。
A new company's most important strength is new thinking.
规模小为你提供了思考的空间。
Small size affords you the space to think.
在20世纪90年代，亚马逊并没有试图通过打造更好的书店来击败巴诺书店。
In the 1990s, Amazon did not try to beat Barnes and Noble by building better bookstores.
他们围绕互联网重新构想了整个购书体验。
They reimagined the entire book buying experience around the internet.
基于第一性原理的思考，他们利用互联网的能力，以更低的成本为客户提供更多价值。
And based on first principles thinking, they leveraged the internet's capabilities to deliver more value to customers for less.
彼得·蒂尔在面试时最喜欢问的问题是：有什么重要的真理是你认为正确的，但很少有人同意？
Peter Thiel's favorite question to ask in a job interview is, what one important truth do very few people agree with you on?
这个问题很难回答，尤其是当你刚从大学毕业，所接受的观念几乎和所有人都一样。
It's a difficult question to answer, especially when you're coming out of college and you are more or less taught the same dogmas as everyone else.
有些人可能会说教育体系已经崩溃，亟需修复，但几乎每个人都同意这个说法。
Some might say that the educational system is broken and urgently needs fixed, but practically everyone agrees with that statement.
许多人可能认为自己是反主流的，但实际上并非如此。
Many people might believe that they're contrarian without actually being contrarian.
如果我们回到1999年的科技泡沫时期，那时无论是创业者还是投资者，短期内都表现得非常非理性。
If we jump back to the 1999 tech bubble, this was a time where both entrepreneurs and investors behaved very irrationally in short term.
在蒂尔看来，科技泡沫的破裂给硅谷留下了四个主要教训。
In Thiel's view, the collapse of the tech bubble left Silicon Valley with four primary lessons.
第一，要做出渐进式的进步。
First, make incremental advancements.
科技泡沫时期的宏伟愿景清楚地表明，绝大多数人对自己过于狂妄了。
The grand visions of the tech bubble were a clear indication that the vast majority of people got way too carried away with themselves.
任何声称自己在某方面非常出色的人都是值得怀疑的，任何想改变世界的人都应该更加谦逊。
Anyone who claims to be great at something is suspect and anyone who wants to change the world should really be more humble.
只有通过小的、渐进的步骤，才是唯一安全的前进道路。
Small incremental steps are the only safe path forward.
人们从科技泡沫中得出的第二个教训是：保持精简和灵活。
The second lesson that people took away from the tech bubble is to stay lean and flexible.
所有公司都必须保持精简，因为未来总会给你带来意想不到的意外。
All companies must be lean because the future will deliver you curveballs you just don't expect.
你不该确切知道你的业务会做什么，因此制定计划是傲慢且僵化的。
You shouldn't know what your business will do, so planning is arrogant and inflexible.
第三，要超越竞争对手。
Third, improve on the competition.
不要过早地试图创造新市场。
Don't try to create a new market prematurely.
创办一家真正企业的安全方式是，从已有客户开始，专注于那些已被成功竞争对手提供的、易于识别的产品。
The safe way to start a real business is to start with an already existing customer and pursue recognizable products that are already offered by successful competition.
最后，要专注于产品，而不是销售。
And lastly, focus on the product, not sales.
如果你的产品需要广告或销售人员才能卖出去，那它还不够好。
If your product requires advertising or salespeople to sell it, it's just not good enough.
技术的核心主要是产品开发，而不是分销。
Technology is primarily about product development, not distribution.
泡沫时代的广告显然是浪费的，因此唯一可持续的增长是病毒式增长。
Bubble era advertising was obviously wasteful, so the only sustainable growth is viral growth.
当时普遍认为，如果你不遵循这些原则，就必然会重蹈上世纪九十年代科技泡沫中他人犯过的错误。
It was widely believed that if you did not follow these principles, then you were bound to fall for the same mistakes that others made during the nineteen ninety nine tech bubble.
作为反叛者，蒂尔认为，相反的原则可能更正确。
Thiel, being the contrarian that he is, believes that the opposite principles are probably more correct.
因此，这里列出这四条原则：与其平庸，不如大胆冒险；一个糟糕的计划胜过没有计划；竞争性市场会摧毁利润；营销和销售与产品同样重要。
So to list all four here, it's better to risk boldness than triviality, a bad plan is better than no plan, competitive markets destroy profits, and marketing and sales matter just as much as the product.
九十年代末是一个自满的时代，许多人相信要实现从零到一的突破。
The late nineties was a time of hubris and when many people believed in going from zero to one.
但真正实现这一目标的初创公司太少，许多公司甚至连实际行动都谈不上。
But too few startups were actually getting there and many were never beyond just talking about it.
蒂尔接着解释，商业版的反叛问题是：有什么有价值的企业还没有人正在创建？
Thiel then explains that the business version of the contrarian question is, what valuable company is nobody building?
这个问题比听起来更难，因为你的公司可能创造了大量价值，但自身却并未变得非常有价值。
This question is harder than it sounds because your company could create a lot of value without becoming very valuable itself.
创造价值是不够的。
Creating value is not enough.
你还需要捕获你所创造的一部分价值。
You also need to capture some of the value you create.
这意味着即使是非常庞大的企业也可能成为糟糕的企业。
This means that even very large businesses can be bad businesses.
美国航空公司就是一个完美的例子。
US airlines are a perfect example.
它们每年服务数百万乘客，创造数千亿美元的价值。
They serve millions of passengers and create hundreds of billions of dollars in value each year.
但大部分价值流向了社会，而不是公司自身。
But the majority of that value goes to society and not to the companies themselves.
2012年，单程机票平均价格为178美元，但航空公司每名乘客仅盈利37美分。
In 2012, the average airfare each way was $178 but airlines only made 37¢ per passenger trip.
蒂尔随后将航空公司与谷歌进行比较，谷歌创造的价值较少，但却捕获了其中多得多的部分。
Thiel then compares the airlines to Google, which creates less value but captures far more of it.
2012年，谷歌的收入为500亿美元，而航空公司的收入为1600亿美元。尽管谷歌的收入不到航空公司的三分之一，但它却将21%的收入转化为利润。
In 2012, Google brought in revenues of $50,000,000,000 while the airlines brought in revenues of $160,000,000,000 Despite generating less than one third of the revenue, it kept 21% of that revenue as profit.
这一利润率是当年航空公司利润率的100倍以上。
That's more than 100 times the airline industry's profit margin that year.
截至该书出版时，谷歌的市值是美国所有航空公司市值总和的三倍。
As of the time of the book, Google was worth three times more than all of The US airline companies combined.
如今，这一数字已达到航空公司行业的25倍以上。
Today, that figure is more like 25 times more valuable than the airline industry.
因此，经营一家优秀的企业更在于有能力捕获你所创造的价值，而不仅仅是增加收入。
So running a great business is more about having the ability to capture the value that you are creating and less about just generating more revenue.
这两个案例之间的一个关键区别是，谷歌在搜索业务中几乎没有任何竞争对手，而所有航空公司则彼此直接竞争，提供的产品大致相同。
One critical difference between these two case studies is that Google had practically no competition in the search business and all of the airlines competed with each other head to head, more or less offering the exact same product.
如果我们坐在经济学课堂上，可能会说谷歌是一家垄断企业，而航空公司则处于完全竞争状态。
If we were sitting in an economics class, we might say that Google was a monopoly and the airlines were in perfect competition.
在经济学中，完全竞争市场被认为既是理想状态，也是默认状态。
A perfectly competitive market is considered both ideal and the default state in the economics 01/2001.
当市场在生产者供给和消费者需求之间达到均衡时，就是这种情况。
And it's when markets achieve equilibrium between producer supply and consumer demand.
在竞争性市场中，每一家企业都是无差别的，销售相同的标准产品。
Every firm in a competitive market is undifferentiated and sells the same homogeneous products.
由于没有任何企业拥有真正的市场支配力，它们必须按照市场决定的价格进行销售。
And since no firm has really any market power, they must sell at whatever price the market determines.
例如，如果我在今年九月搜索前往纽约的航班，我可能会看到西南航空的航班票价为350美元，联合航空的航班票价为375美元。在几乎所有情况下，我都会选择西南航空的航班，因为我认为它们提供的产品几乎完全相同。
For example, if I do a search on flights for my trip to New York this September, I might see Southwest Airlines, they have a flight for $350 United Airlines, they have a flight for $375 In pretty much every situation, I would select the Southwest flight because I view the product offered about essentially the same.
在长期来看，在完全竞争条件下，没有任何企业能获得经济利润。
In the long run, under perfect competition, no company makes an economic profit.
垄断是完全竞争的对立面。
A monopoly is the opposite of perfect competition.
与多个竞争者并存的市场不同，垄断企业独占市场，能够自行定价。
In contrast to a market with several competitors, a monopoly owns the market and is able to set its own prices.
由于没有竞争，它会通过设定价格和产量水平来实现利润最大化。
Since it has no competition, it sets prices and volume levels in order to maximize its profits.
对经济学家而言，无论垄断者是通过阴谋手段消除竞争对手、获得政府许可，还是通过创新登顶，所有的垄断看起来都是一样的。
To an economist, every monopoly looks the same whether they deviously eliminate rivals, secure a license from the state, or innovate its way to the top.
但在《从零到一》这本书中，蒂尔最感兴趣的是那些做得如此出色，以至于没有任何其他公司能提供近似替代品的企业。
But in the book Zero to One, Thiel is most interested in the companies that are so good at what they do that no other firm can offer a close substitute.
因此，他对那些成为政府宠儿，或通过不正当或非法手段获取竞争优势的公司并不感兴趣。
So he's not interested in companies that are government favorites or do shady or illegal things in order to get a leg up on the competition.
谷歌是一个从零到一的绝佳例子。
Google is a really good example of a company that went from zero to one.
自2000年代初以来，谷歌实际上一直没有任何真正的竞争对手。
Since the early 2000s, Google has effectively had no real competition.
当然，大型语言模型对谷歌长期影响如何尚无定论，但到目前为止，它们似乎仍处于一个独树一帜的层级。
And of course, the jury is still out on how LLMs will impact Google long term, but so far they seem to still be in a league of their own.
让我们短暂休息一下，听听今天赞助商的介绍。
Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors.
当你经营一家小企业时，雇对一个人可能带来天壤之别。
When you're running a small business, hiring the right person can make all the difference.
正确的招聘人选可以提升你的团队、提高生产力，并将你的业务推向新的高度。
The right hire can elevate your team, boost your productivity and take your business to the next level.
但找到这样的人可能本身就像一份全职工作。
But finding that person can feel like a full time job in itself.
这就是LinkedIn招聘的用武之地。
That's where LinkedIn jobs comes in.
他们的新AI助手通过为你匹配真正符合需求的顶尖候选人，消除了招聘中的猜测成分。
Their new AI assistant takes the guesswork out of hiring by matching you with top candidates who actually fit what you're looking for.
它不再让你逐份翻阅简历，而是根据你的标准筛选申请者，并突出显示最匹配的人选，帮你节省数小时时间，让合适的候选人出现时你能迅速行动。
Instead of sifting through piles of resumes, it filters applicants based on your criteria and highlights the best matches, saving you hours and helping you move fast when the right person comes along.
最棒的是，这些优秀的候选人已经都在LinkedIn上。
The best part is that those great candidates are already on LinkedIn.
事实上，通过LinkedIn招聘的员工比通过主要竞争对手招聘的员工留任一年以上的可能性高出30%。
In fact, employees hired through LinkedIn are 30 more likely to stick around for at least a year compared to those hired through the leading competitor.
一次就招对人。
Hire right the first time.
前往 linkedin.com/studybill 免费发布职位，然后推广职位以使用 LinkedIn Jobs 的全新 AI 助手，更轻松快捷地找到顶尖候选人。
Post your job for free at linkedin.com/studybill, then promote it to use LinkedIn jobs new AI assistant, making it easier and faster to find top candidates.
免费发布职位，请访问 linkedin.com/studybill。
That's linkedin.com/studybill to post your job for free.
条款和条件适用。
Terms and conditions apply.
比特币挖矿一直被认为复杂、高风险，且难以评估为真正的投资。
Bitcoin mining has a reputation for being complicated, risky, and hard to evaluate as a real investment.
如果你正在考虑 2026 年进行挖矿，真正重要的是并非 headline 利润率。
If you're considering mining in 2026, what actually matters isn't headline profitability.
而是设备的正常运行时间、维修情况，以及该运营是否像一家企业那样管理。
It's uptime, repairs, and whether the operation is run like a business.
这就是我一直在使用 Simple Mining 的原因。
That's why I've been using Simple Mining.
他们位于爱荷华州锡达福尔斯，提供全方位托管服务，你拥有自己的矿机，可自行选择矿池，比特币会直接发送到你的钱包。
They're based in Cedar Falls, Iowa, and they run a white glove hosting operation where you own your own miners, choose your pool, and have Bitcoin sent directly to your wallet.
他们入选了《Inc.》5000强榜单，成为爱荷华州增长最快的企业，管理着超过4万台矿机。
They were featured on Inc's 5,000 list as the fastest growing company in Iowa with over 40,000 machines under management.
最突出的是他们的执行力。
What stands out is execution.
他们拥有排名第一的ASIC维修中心，并且在前十二个月内免费提供维修服务。
They have the number one rated ASIC repair center, and for the first twelve months, repairs are included.
如果挖矿利润变薄，你可以随时暂停，没有任何罚款。
If mining margins get tight, you can pause with no penalties.
如果你想调整或升级你的矿机阵容，他们还提供一个交易平台，让你可以转售设备，而不是被套牢。
And if you want to resize or upgrade your fleet, there's a marketplace to resell equipment instead of being stuck.
为了帮助人们思考当前挖矿是否真的可行，他们制作了一份名为《2026年比特币挖矿蓝图》的简明指南。
To help people think through whether mining actually makes sense right now, they put together a short resource called the twenty twenty six Bitcoin mining blueprint.
这份指南详细分析了投资者在配置挖矿时常犯的五个错误，以及如何在投入资金前避免这些陷阱。
It walks through the five mistakes investors make when allocating the mining and how to avoid them before deploying capital.
如果觉得有趣，你可以免费获取，网址是 simplemining.iopreston。
If it sounds interesting, you can get it for free at simplemining.iopreston.
那就是 simplemining.iopreston。
That's simplemining.iopreston.
每个企业都在问同一个问题。
Every business is asking the same question.
我们如何让人工智能为我们服务？
How do we make AI work for us?
可能性无穷无尽，而猜测风险太高。
The possibilities are endless and guessing is too risky.
但袖手旁观不是选择，因为有一件事几乎可以肯定：你的竞争对手已经在行动了。
But sitting on the sidelines is not an option because one thing is almost certain, your competitors are already making their move.
借助甲骨文的 NetSuite，你今天就能让人工智能发挥作用。
With NetSuite by Oracle, you can put AI to work today.
NetSuite 是全球超过 43,000 家企业信赖的头号 AI 云 ERP 系统。
NetSuite is the number one AI cloud ERP trusted by over 43,000 businesses.
它是一个统一的套件，将你的财务、库存、电商、人力资源和客户关系管理整合为单一数据源。
It's a unified suite that brings your financials, inventory, commerce, HR, and CRM into a single source of truth.
这些连接的数据让您的AI更智能，不再只是猜测。
That connected data is what makes your AI smarter so it doesn't just guess.
现在，借助NetSuite AI连接器，您可以使用任何您选择的AI，连接到您的实际业务数据，并提出您曾经有过的所有问题，从关键客户到现金状况再到库存趋势。
And now with NetSuite AI Connector, you can use the AI of your choice to connect to your actual business data and ask every question you ever had, from key customers to cash on hand to inventory trends.
无论您的公司年收入是数百万还是数亿，NetSuite都能帮助您保持领先地位。
Whether your company earns millions or even hundreds of millions, NetSuite helps you stay ahead of the pack.
目前，NetSuite免费提供商业指南《揭开AI的神秘面纱》，请访问 netsuite.com/study 获取。
Right now, NetSuite's free business guide, Demystifying AI at netsuite.com/study.
这份指南免费提供，访问 netsuite.com/study 即可获取。
The guide is free to you at netsuite.com/study.
特雷：好的。
Trey All right.
回到节目。
Back to the show.
特雷：对大多数人来说，在垄断行业和完全竞争行业之间做出区分，在最极端的例子中可能显而易见，但很多时候，真正判断起来却要模糊得多。
Trey To most people, judging the difference between a monopoly industry and an industry with perfect competition will likely seem obvious in the most extreme examples, but oftentimes it can be much more murkier to really judge.
我今天想举的一个例子是优步。
One example I like to consider today is Uber.
在许多市场中，优步主导了叫车市场，但有些人可能会认为优步面临激烈的竞争。
In many markets, Uber dominates the ride hailing market, but some might argue that Uber faces significant competition.
它们与Lyft竞争，而Lyft提供的服务几乎完全相同。
They compete with Lyft, which essentially offers the exact same service.
我们正看到自动驾驶汽车的兴起，这威胁到了优步的商业模式。
And we're seeing the rise of autonomous vehicles, which threaten Uber's business model.
但对我来说，很难论证优步如今真的面临显著的竞争。
But it's really difficult for me to make the case that Uber really does face significant competition today.
在过去十二个月中，该公司实现了近500亿美元的收入，自由现金流超过80亿美元，这对我来说表明优步至少目前拥有相当显著的护城河。
In the trailing twelve months, the company generated nearly $50,000,000,000 in revenue and free cash flow generated is over 8,000,000,000, which to me suggests that Uber has a pretty significant moat, at least for the time being.
蒂尔认为，大多数企业实际上更接近于这两个极端，而不是我们可能意识到的那样。
Thiel believes that most businesses lie closer to the extremes than we might realize.
识别垄断企业之所以有点困难，是因为垄断者有动机说谎以保护自己。
One reason that identifying monopolies can be a bit tricky is because monopolists have an incentive to lie in order to protect themselves.
他们知道，炫耀自己的垄断地位会招致审计、审查和攻击。
They know that bragging about their great monopoly invites being audited, scrutinized, and attacked.
垄断者希望隐藏自己的地位，并夸大并不存在的竞争者的实力。
Monopolists want to conceal their position and exaggerate the power of their non existing competition.
2011年，在一次国会听证会上，谷歌董事长埃里克·施密特在证词中表示：我们面临一个极其竞争的环境，消费者有多种途径获取信息。
In 2011, during a congressional hearing, Google chairman Eric Schmidt stated during his testimony, We face an extremely competitive landscape in which consumers have a multitude of options to access information.
我们来看今天的搜索市场，谷歌占据90%的市场份额，必应占4%，其他几家公司的份额微不足道。
We look at the search market today, Google has 90% market share, Bing has 4% market share, and there are several others with a de minimis amount of the market.
任何公正的观察者都会说，谷歌在搜索市场明显拥有垄断地位，必应几乎不可能超越它的位置。
Any unbiased observer would say that Google clearly has a monopoly in the search market, and there's practically no risk that Bing is going to overtake that position.
但谷歌更愿意告诉你，他们不是一家搜索公司，而是一家广告公司。
But Google would rather tell you that they aren't a search business, they're an advertising business.
当你放眼全球广告市场时，据估计，谷歌在全球广告市场中占据了约25%至30%的份额，因此很难说他们在全球广告市场拥有垄断地位。
When you look at the advertising market globally, estimates suggest that Google generates around 25 to 30% of the advertising market globally, So it's much more difficult to make the case that they have a monopoly in the global advertising market.
或者他们可能会告诉你，他们是一家多元化的科技公司。
Or perhaps they would tell you that they're a multifaceted tech company.
除了搜索引擎之外，他们还有数十种其他软件产品。
In addition to their search engine, they have dozens of other software products.
他们制造自动驾驶汽车、安卓手机和可穿戴设备。
They make autonomous vehicles, Android phones, and wearables.
作为一家科技公司，谷歌与亚马逊、Meta、微软、苹果以及无数其他竞争对手正面交锋。
As a tech company, this puts Google head to head with heavyweights like Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, Apple, and countless other competitors.
将自己定位为一家普通的科技公司，使谷歌能够逃避各种不必要的关注。
Framing themselves as just another tech company allows Google to escape all sorts of unwanted attention.
对于非垄断企业，他们讲的是相反的谎言。
For non monopolies, they tell the opposite lie.
他们向股东宣称自己独树一帜。
They tell their shareholders that they are in a league of their own.
企业家总是倾向于低估自己面临的竞争，但这是初创企业最大的错误。
Entrepreneurs are always biased to understate the competition they face, but that is the biggest mistake a startup can make.
蒂尔在帕洛阿尔托待了很长时间，他提出了一个思想实验。
Thiel spent a lot of time in Palo Alto and he poses the thought experiment.
假设你想在帕洛阿尔托开一家提供英式料理的餐厅。
Suppose you wanted to start a restaurant that serves British food in Palo Alto.
你可能会认为，这里没人做这个，因此你能独占整个市场。
You might reason that nobody else is doing this and you'll own the entire market.
但只有在英式食物有相当大的市场需求时，这一点才相关。
But that's only relevant if there is a substantial market for British food.
如果你真正应该关注的市场其实是帕洛阿尔托的餐饮市场呢？
What if the real market you should be focusing on is the restaurant market in Palo Alto?
如果附近城镇的餐厅也相关呢？
And what if restaurants in the nearby towns are relevant as well?
当你听到大多数新餐厅在一二年内就倒闭时，你的第一反应会是编个故事，说明你的餐厅为何与众不同。
When you hear that most new restaurants fail within one or two years, your instinct will be to come up with a story about why yours is different.
与其试图说服别人你有多优秀，不如考虑帕洛阿尔托的人是否真的对英式食物感兴趣。
Instead of trying to convince others how great you are, maybe it's better to consider whether people in Palo Alto would even be interested in British food.
正如听众可能知道的，蒂尔曾与埃隆·马斯克、马克斯·列夫琴、里德·霍夫曼等人一起属于PayPal黑手党。
As the listeners might know, Thiel was a part of the PayPal mafia alongside Elon Musk, Max Levchin, Reed Hoffman, among others.
2001年，贝宝是全球唯一一家基于电子邮件的支付公司。
In 2001, PayPal was the only email based payments company in the world.
当时，公司员工人数甚至比蒂尔晚上吃饭的餐厅还要少。
And at the time, the company employed fewer people than the restaurants Thiel would eat at for dinner in the evenings.
然而，贝宝的价值却远超这些餐厅的总和。
Yet, the value of PayPal was much higher than all of these restaurants combined.
这为创业者或投资者揭示了另一个重要的教训。
This highlights another important lesson for entrepreneurs or investors for that matter.
你选择进入的行业，与实际执行一样重要，甚至更为重要。
The industry you choose to launch a business in is just as, if not more important than the actual execution.
当然，两者都很重要，但如果埃隆·马斯克选择将时间和精力投入餐饮业，他不可能价值数千亿美元。
Of course, both are important, but Elon Musk would not be worth hundreds of billions of dollars if he chose to invest his time and energy into the restaurant business.
此外，在竞争激烈的市场中运营，不仅仅是利润匮乏的问题。
Furthermore, operating in a competitive market goes beyond just a lack of profits.
它还意味着你必须不断斗争，才能勉强生存。
It's also a constant fight just to simply survive.
由于餐厅的利润率很低，你总是在寻找各种方法来控制成本。
Since restaurants have low margins, you're always looking for ways to limit your cost base.
这可能意味着支付多名员工最低工资，并竭尽全力榨取每一分效率，只为勉强维持生计。
That might mean paying several employees minimum wage and squeezing out every piece of efficiency you can just to tread water.
即使在最高层次，餐厅的情况也好不到哪里去，像米其林星级这样的评价体系会催生一种激烈的竞争文化，让厨师们几近崩溃。
And restaurants aren't much better, even at the highest levels, where reviews and ratings like the Michelin star system enforce a culture of intense competition that drives chefs crazy.
法国主厨、三星级米其林得主贝尔纳·拉索曾被引用说过：‘如果我失去一颗星，我就自杀。’
French chef and winner of three Michelin stars, Bernard Lasso, was quoted as saying, if I lose a star, I will commit suicide.
米其林确实维持了他的评级，但他最终在2003年自杀身亡，当时一家竞争对手的法国餐饮指南下调了他餐厅的评分。
Michelin did maintain his rating, but he ended up killing himself anyway in 2003 when a competing French dining guide downgraded his restaurant.
然后你换个角度，看看谷歌。
And then you turn the tables and look at Google.
情况显然截然不同。
The situation is clearly much different.
它不必担心与任何人竞争。
It doesn't have to worry about competing with anyone.
它有更大的空间去关心员工、产品以及对更广泛世界的影响。
It has a wider latitude to care about its workers, its products, and its impact on the wider world.
在早期，谷歌的座右铭是：不作恶。
In the early days, Google's motto was, Don't be evil.
2015年，这一口号被改为：做正确的事。
In 2015, this was changed to do the right thing.
谷歌处于一种得天独厚的地位：它足够成功，可以认真对待伦理问题，而无需危及自身的生存。
Google is in the privileged position of being successful enough to take ethics seriously without jeopardizing its own existence.
在商业中，金钱要么很重要，要么就是一切。
In business, money is either an important thing or it's everything.
垄断企业有能力去思考金钱之外的事情。
Monopolies can afford to think about things other than just making money.
因此，显然垄断对公司的内部人员有利，但对外部的人又如何呢？
So it's clear that being a monopoly is good for everyone inside the company, but what about everyone on the outside?
蒂尔认为，垄断利润确实是以顾客钱包为代价的，垄断企业也确实配得上它们所获得的负面声誉，但这只适用于一个不变的世界。
Thiel argues that monopoly profits do come at the expense of customer wallets and monopolies do deserve the bad reputation they get, but only in a world where nothing changes.
在一个静态的世界里，垄断者只是一个收租者。
In a static world, a monopolist is just a rent collector.
他们垄断市场，抬高价格，其他人别无选择，只能向他们购买。
They corner a market, jack up the prices, and others will have no choice but to buy from them.
在《大富翁》游戏中，你可以想象那个拥有所有最宝贵地产的玩家，每次你经过时都在向你收租。
In the game of Monopoly, you can imagine the player that owns all of the most valuable real estate is just collecting rent from you every time you go around.
骰子继续被投掷，但棋盘却从未改变。
The dice continues to be rolled, but the board never changes.
因此，你不可能通过发明比其他玩家更优秀的地产来获胜。
So there's no way of winning by, say, inventing a property that's even better than what the other players have.
但我们所生活的世界是动态的。
But the world we live in is dynamic.
因此，创造更新、更好的事物是可能的。
So it is possible to create new and better things.
像今天我们熟知的许多大型科技公司这样的创造性垄断者，通过引入全新的品类，为顾客提供更多选择，从而为我们所有人解锁了这种新的富足。
Creative monopolies like many of the big tech players we all know of today, they give customers more choices by adding these entirely new categories that unlock this new abundance for all of us to benefit from.
多年来，我一直对数字广告感兴趣，尤其是谷歌、脸书或Meta。
I've been interested in digital advertising over the years, especially Google and Facebook or Meta.
让我感兴趣的是，它们并没有直接与广播和广告牌竞争。
And what's interesting to me is that they didn't necessarily compete with radios and billboards.
它们并没有自己竖起广告牌或开办广播电台，而是创造了一个全新的类别，从而扩大了整个市场。
By putting up billboards themselves and launching their own radio stations, they created an entirely new category and therefore they expanded the overall market.
这使得它们的存在对整个社会有益，因为它们为所有人扩大了所谓的‘蛋糕’。
This makes their existence good for society as a whole as they expanded the proverbial pie for everybody.
2005年，美国广告总支出约为1400亿美元；到了2025年，仅仅二十年后，仅数字广告的支出就达到了约4500亿美元。
In 2005, the total amount spent on advertising in The US was around $140,000,000,000 In 2025, just twenty years later, around $450,000,000,000 was spent on digital advertising alone.
因此，由于企业能够以更有效的方式推广产品和服务，整个广告市场得到了巨大扩张。
So their overall market for advertising grew massively because of these better ways for businesses to advertise their products and services.
尽管谷歌、Meta和亚马逊赚取了数十亿美元的广告收入，它们也帮助了数十万家中小企业发展壮大。
While Google, Meta, and Amazon have raked in billions of advertising dollars, they've also empowered hundreds of thousands of small businesses in helping them grow their own companies.
此外，它们还帮助消费者发现了符合自身独特需求的产品，而这些产品是他们以前可能根本无法接触到的。
Furthermore, they helped consumers discover products that fit their own unique needs that they otherwise might not have discovered before.
这对每个人来说都是双赢。
It's a win win for everyone all around.
几周前，我看到一则个性化的圣诞装饰品广告，最后我为我女朋友买了下来。
Just a few weeks ago, I saw an ad for a personalized Christmas ornament I ended up buying for my girlfriend.
我一看到这则广告，就知道我非买不可。
Immediately when I saw the ad, I knew that I just had to have it.
她喜欢个性化的礼物，所以这简直完美。
She loves personalized gifts, so it was just perfect.
我能在上面加上我们两个人的名字。
I was able to add both of our names to it.
作为一名价值投资者，我也很高兴它只卖16美元。
As a value investor, I was also happy it was only $16 to purchase.
如果不是因为Meta，我根本不可能找到这个装饰品。
I would have never found that ornament if it weren't for Meta.
这些垄断企业对社会有利的另一个原因是，即使一家公司今天拥有垄断地位，也不意味着这种状况会永远持续下去。
What also makes these monopolies good for society is that just because a company has a monopoly today does not mean that that's going to continue indefinitely.
这些公司有强烈的动机去创新并投资开发新技术，以改进现有产品或创造全新的产品。
These companies have a strong incentive to innovate and invest in creating new technologies to make their existing products better or create entirely new products.
我今天刚看到，由字母公司拥有的Waymo正在推出一款可容纳五人的自动驾驶汽车。
I just saw today that Waymo, which is owned by Alphabet, is launching a new autonomous vehicle with five person seating.
这项业务的资金来源于谷歌搜索的垄断利润。
This business was funded thanks to the monopoly profits of Google search.
这些垄断企业能够持续创新，因为利润使它们能够制定长期计划，并资助竞争行业企业根本无法想象的雄心勃勃的研究项目。
These monopolies can keep innovating because profits enable them to make these long term plans and finance ambitious research projects that firms in competitive industries just can't even dream of.
在书中，我觉得蒂尔对社会对竞争的痴迷以及社会如何塑造人们走向顺从的现象感到有趣。
In the book, I thought it was interesting that Thiel got into society's obsession with competition and how society grooms people to conformity.
在美国，聪明且有抱负的个体的典型路径可能是：进入一所名牌大学，取得优异成绩，然后去法学院或攻读MBA，进入投资银行或成为律师，逐步晋升。
The typical playbook for smart ambitious individuals in The US might look something like go to a prestigious university, earn top scores, go off to law school or get your MBA, get into investment banking or become a lawyer and move up the ranks.
在每一个阶段，你都在和左右两边的人竞争。
In every step, you are in competition with the person to your left and to your right.
在这些公司内部，人们沉迷于为职业晋升而与他人竞争，而公司本身也沉迷于与市场上的竞争对手较量。
Inside these firms, people become obsessed with their competitors for career advancement, and then the firms themselves become obsessed with their competitors in the marketplace.
他写道：在所有这些纷争中，人们忽视了真正重要的事情，反而专注于竞争对手。
He writes, Amid all the drama, people lose sight of what matters and focus on their rivals instead.
这让我想到，如今看大多数汽车制造商，它们生产的车辆几乎都一模一样。
Reminds me of how when I look at most automakers today, the vast majority of them seem to produce practically the same vehicles.
当然，不同价格区间会有差异，但很多车看起来几乎毫无区别。
Of course, are differences at different price levels, but a lot of cars more or less just look exactly the same.
在蒂尔看来，竞争会让人在根本不存在的机会中产生幻觉。
In Thiel's view, competition can make people hallucinate opportunities where none exist.
他举了上世纪九十年代末在线宠物用品市场的例子。
He points to the example of the online pet store market in the late nineties.
当时有Pets.com和其他几家竞争者，它们都痴迷于击败对手，正是因为彼此之间根本没有实质性的差异。
You had pets.com versus several others, each obsessed with defeating their rivals, precisely because there were no substantive differences to focus on.
谁能最激进地定价狗咬玩具？
Who could price Chewy Dog toys most aggressively?
谁能制作出最棒的超级碗广告？
Who could create the best Super Bowl ad?
这些公司完全忽略了更根本的问题：在线宠物用品市场是否真的是一个值得进入的领域。
These companies totally lost sight of the wider question of whether the online pet supply market was the right space to be in.
赢比输好，但当这场战争根本不值得打时，所有人都会输。
Winning is better than losing, but everybody loses when the war isn't one worth fighting.
蒂尔认为，如果你无法击败对手，或许合并才是更好的选择。
Thiel argues that if you're not able to beat a rival, it may be better to merge.
他于1998年与马克斯·列夫琴共同创立了Confinity，并在1999年底推出了PayPal产品。
He started Confinity in 1998 with Max Levchin and released the PayPal product in late 'ninety nine.
埃隆·马斯克的公司X.com紧随其后，其产品完全复制了Confinity的每一项功能。
Elon Musk's company, x.com, was right on their heels with their product mirroring Confinity's feature for feature.
这两家公司都位于帕洛阿尔托，相距仅四个街区。
The two companies were headquartered in Palo Alto, just four blocks apart.
它们展开了全面竞争，力求达到最大规模，两家公司的许多员工每周工作长达一百小时。
They were in an all out war trying to reach the biggest scale and many people at these companies were logging one hundred hour work weeks.
到2000年2月，马斯克和泰尔都对科技泡沫的过度膨胀深感忧虑，他们知道，一旦泡沫破裂，双方都将在决出胜负前彻底崩溃。
By February 2000, both Musk and Teal were deeply concerned about how inflated the tech bubble was and they knew that a bursting of the bubble would ruin them both before they could even finish the fight.
因此，他们决定通过五五合并联手，这使他们成功度过了互联网泡沫破裂，并建立了一家成功的企业。
So they decided to join forces through a fiftyfifty merger, which enabled them to successfully ride out the dotcom crash and build a successful company.
蒂尔进一步深入，分享了企业如何成为垄断者的更多见解。
Thiel then digs in deeper and shares more about how a company can become a monopoly.
摆脱竞争能让你获得垄断地位，但即使是一个垄断企业，也只有在能够持续发展的情况下，才称得上是出色的生意。
Escaping competition will give you a monopoly, but even a monopoly is only a great business if it can endure in the future.
如果我们回到2012年，来比较《纽约时报》和推特的价值。
If we jump back to 2012, let's compare the value of New York Times to Twitter.
《纽约时报》雇用了数千名员工，为数百万人提供服务，并创造了超过1亿美元的利润。
The New York Times employed a few thousand people, delivered a service to millions of people, and generated more than $100,000,000 in profit.
但当推特在2013年上市时，其估值高达240亿美元，是《纽约时报》价值的12倍。
But when Twitter went public in 2013, it was valued at $24,000,000,000 which was 12 times the value of the New York Times.
你可能会认为，鉴于如此巨大的估值差异，推特的盈利能力甚至可能超过《纽约时报》，但实际情况是，推特实际上正在亏损，这可能让许多投资者觉得市场已经失去理智。
You might assume that Twitter was perhaps even more profitable than the times given the huge valuation disparity, but the reality was that Twitter was actually losing money, which might make many investors think that the market has lost its mind.
但对企业估值不仅仅是看公司当前的利润，而是关乎未来现金流折现到现在的价值。
But valuing businesses isn't just about profits that a company is generating today, it's all about the future of cash flows discounted to the present.
市场本质上是在预期Twitter终将获得可观的垄断利润。
The market was essentially pricing in that Twitter was going to one day capture substantial monopoly profits.
这也解释了为什么2014年LinkedIn的估值高达240亿美元，而其当年利润仅有2100万美元，市盈率超过1000倍。
It's also why in 2014, LinkedIn was valued at 24,000,000,000 and yet they only generated $21,000,000 in profit, valuing the company at a PE of over 1,000.
由于企业估值的这种现实，许多早期科技公司的管理者会不惜一切代价追求增长。
Because of this reality of how companies are valued, many people who run early stage tech companies will chase growth at all costs.
但重要的是要记住，企业的价值不仅在于它未来能产生的利润，还在于这些利润的持久性。
But it's important to remember that the value of a business isn't just in the profits it will generate in the future, but also the durability of those profits.
如果你只关注短期增长而忽视其他一切，就会错过你最应该问的关键问题：这家企业十年后还存在吗？
If you just focus on near term growth above all else, you miss the most important question you should be asking, Will this business be around a decade from now?
这是一个难以回答的问题，因为它要求你深入思考企业所具备的定性特征。
This is a difficult question to answer because it requires you to really think critically about the qualitative characteristics of the business.
Thiel解释说，每个垄断企业都是独特的，但它们通常具备以下一些特征的组合：专有技术、网络效应、规模经济和品牌影响力。
Thiel explains that every monopoly is unique, but they usually share some combination of the following characteristics, proprietary technology, network effects, economies of scale, and branding.
专有技术是企业所能拥有的最实质性的优势，因为它使你的产品难以或无法被复制。
Proprietary technology is the most substantive advantage a company can have because it makes your product difficult or impossible to replicate.
例如，谷歌的搜索算法比其他所有搜索引擎返回的结果都更好，页面加载速度极快，查询自动补全也极为准确。
For example, Google search algorithms return better results than all other search engines, have extremely short page load times and highly accurate query auto completion.
要让任何人对谷歌做谷歌在2000年代初对其他所有搜索引擎公司做过的事，将极其困难。
It would be very difficult for anyone to do to Google what Google did to all other search engine companies in the early 2000s.
蒂尔分享的经验法则是，一项专有技术必须在某个重要维度上比其最接近的替代品好上至少十倍，才能带来真正的垄断优势。
The rule of thumb that Thiel shares is that a proprietary technology must be at least 10 times better than its closest substitute in some important dimension to lead to a real monopolistic advantage.
任何低于一个数量级的改进，都可能被视为微不足道的提升，难以销售，尤其是在市场高度饱和的情况下。
Anything less than an order of magnitude better will probably be perceived as a marginal improvement and will be hard to sell, especially in an overcrowded market.
实现十倍改进最明确的方式是发明一种全新的东西，或者彻底改进现有的解决方案。
And the clearest way to make a 10x improvement is to invent something completely new or you can radically improve an existing solution.
一旦你做到了十倍更好，你就摆脱了竞争。
Once you're 10 times better, you escape competition.
例如，贝宝让在eBay上买卖商品的体验至少提升了十倍。
PayPal, for instance, made buying and selling on eBay at least 10 times better.
与需要七到十天才能到账的支票不同，贝宝让买家在拍卖结束的瞬间就能完成付款。
Instead of mailing a check that would take seven to ten days to arrive, PayPal let buyers pay as soon as an auction ended.
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卖家能立即收到款项，而且与支票不同，他们知道这些资金是可靠的。
Sellers received the proceeds right away, and unlike with a check, they knew the funds were good.
亚马逊是另一个绝佳的例子。
Amazon is another excellent example.
在早期，他们只是一家卖书的公司。
In the early days, they were a bookseller.
他们最显著的改进之一是极其丰富的图书种类。
And one of their most visible improvements was their vast selection.
他们提供的图书数量是其他任何书店的十倍以上。
They offered more than 10 times as many books as any other bookseller.
1995年上线时，他们自称是地球上最大的书店。
When it launched in 1995, they could claim to be the earth's largest bookstore.
他们之所以能做到这一点，是因为无需实际存储任何库存，每当顾客下单时，只需向供应商请求该书目即可。
And they could do this because they didn't need to physically store any inventory, it simply requested the title from its supplier whenever a customer made an order.
蒂尔随后写道：这种质的飞跃如此有效，以至于非常不满的巴诺书店在亚马逊上市前三天提起诉讼，声称亚马逊在明明只是图书中介的情况下，却不公平地自称为书店。
Thiel then writes, This quantum improvement was so effective that a very unhappy Barnes and Noble filed a lawsuit three days before Amazon's IPO, claiming that Amazon was unfairly calling itself a bookstore when really it was a book broker.
苹果的十倍改进来自于卓越的整合设计。
Of Apple's 10x improvement was through a superior integrated design.
在2005年iPad发布之前，许多人在眼中，平板电脑使用起来很痛苦，甚至根本无法使用。
Before the launch of the iPad in 2005, tablets were painful to use or even unusable in many people's eyes.
有了iPad，平板电脑突然变得非常直观且实用。
With the iPad, a tablet was all of a sudden very intuitive and useful.
垄断的第二个特征是网络效应。
The second characteristic of monopolies is network effects.
我们的受众对这一点会非常熟悉。
Our audience is going to be very familiar with this one.
网络效应意味着，随着使用人数的增加，产品会变得更有用。
Network effects make a product more useful as more people use it.
泰尔举了Facebook和社交网络的经典例子。
Teal illustrates the classic example of Facebook and social networks.
第三，我们有规模经济。
Third, we have economies of scale.
垄断型企业规模越大就越强大，因为固定成本可以分摊到不断扩大的客户群体上。
Monopoly business gets stronger as it gets bigger, as the fixed costs can be spread out over an ever greater customer base.
这正是‘七巨头’的美妙之处，它们都是科技公司，其大部分新增收入直接转化为利润。
This is part of the beauty of the magnificent seven players as they're all technology companies that see a lot of their incremental revenue dropping straight to the bottom line.
谷歌每次搜索的边际成本接近于零，而其边际收益却高得多。
Google's marginal cost for a search query is very close to zero and their marginal revenue is much higher.
再比如微软销售Office 365的订阅服务。
Or take Microsoft selling a subscription of Office three sixty five.
交付该产品的成本几乎为零，但新增收入可以直接转化为利润。
The cost of delivering that product is practically zero, but the incremental revenue can flow straight through as profit.
许多其他类型的企业在扩大规模时只能获得有限的优势。
Many other types of businesses gain only limited advantages as they grow to a large scale.
例如，服务型企业尤其难以形成垄断。
Service businesses, for example, are especially difficult to make monopolies.
如果你拥有一家瑜伽馆，你只能服务一定数量的客户。
If you own a yoga studio, you'll only be able to serve a certain number of customers.
当然，你可以雇佣更多教练并在新地点扩张，但你的利润率仍将基本保持不变。
Of course, you can hire more instructors and expand in new locations, but your margins will still remain largely the same.
换句话说，一家非常成功的瑜伽馆可能每周服务几百名客户，而一支非常成功的软件开发团队则有机会为全球数百万用户服务。
To put it another way, a very successful yoga studio might serve a few 100 customers throughout the week, but a very successful team of software developers have the opportunity to serve millions of people across any number of countries.
Tia致力于投资那些具有指数级增长潜力的初创公司，尤其是从其最初设计阶段就具备这种潜力的公司。
Tia looks to invest in startups that have the potential to scale exponentially, especially from its initial design.
最后，我们谈谈品牌。
Lastly, we have branding.
根据定义，一家公司对其自身品牌拥有垄断权。
By definition, a company has a monopoly on its own brand.
因此，打造强大的品牌是获取垄断地位的有力方式。
So creating a strong brand is a powerful way to claim a monopoly.
当今最强大的品牌之一是苹果。
One of today's strongest brand names is Apple.
苹果凭借其吸引人的产品、精心挑选的材料和设计，吸引了数十亿用户。
Apple attracted billions of users to their attractive products and carefully chosen materials and design.
尽管竞争对手几乎复制了他们所有的做法，人们仍然愿意付费使用苹果产品。
And despite competitors essentially copying much of what they've already done, people will still pay up to use Apple.
然而，没有任何科技公司能仅靠品牌建设起来。
However, no technology company can be built on branding alone.
它还需要上述的一些优势。
It also requires some of the advantages outlined above.
因此，品牌、规模、网络效应和技术以某种组合形式定义了垄断，但要让它们发挥作用，市场需要被仔细选择。
So brand, scale, network effects, and technology in some combination define a monopoly, but to get them to work, the market needs to be selected carefully.
蒂尔发现，垄断企业必须从相对较小的市场开始，原因很简单。
Thiel's learned that monopolies need to start with a relatively small market and the reason is simple.
较小的市场比更大的市场更容易主导。
Smaller markets are easier to dominate than larger markets.
当贝宝与eBay合作为买家和卖家提供支付服务时，eBay上有几千名核心卖家占据了大部分交易量。
When PayPal partnered with eBay to offer payments for buyers and sellers, eBay had a few thousand power sellers that did most of the volume.
因此，贝宝瞄准了这一特定群体。
So PayPal targeted this select target group.
就在几个月内，他们就已经服务了其中四分之一。
And within just a few months, they were already serving one fourth of them.
如果他们在数以亿计的人手中都拥有手机的时候专注于移动支付，鉴于他们团队规模很小，要扩展并主导这个市场将会困难得多。
Had they focused more on mobile payments while mobile phones were in the hands of millions of people, it would have been much more difficult to scale up and dominate that market given how small their team was.
初创企业的理想目标市场是一个由少数人集中组成、且几乎没有竞争对手的细分市场。
The perfect target market for a startup is a small subset of people concentrated together and served by few or no competitors.
任何大市场都是糟糕的选择，而已经被竞争对手占据的大市场则更糟。
Any big market is a bad choice and a big market already served by competitors is even worse.
这就是为什么当创业者谈到要在一万亿美金的市场中获得百分之一或三十分之一的份额时，蒂尔总是认为这是危险的信号。
This is why it's always a red flag to Teal if an entrepreneur talks about getting a one percent one:thirty market share in a $100,000,000,000 market.
让我们短暂休息一下
Let's take a quick break
听听今天赞助商的消息。
and hear from today's sponsors.
当你经营一家小企业时，雇对人可以带来天壤之别。
When you're running a small business, hiring the right person can make all the difference.
正确的聘用能提升你的团队，提高生产力，将你的业务推向新高度。
The right hire can elevate your team, boost your productivity and take your business to the next level.
但找到这样的人可能本身就像一份全职工作。
But finding that person can feel like a full time job in itself.
这就是LinkedIn招聘的用武之地。
That's where LinkedIn jobs comes in.
他们的新AI助手通过为你匹配真正符合需求的顶尖候选人，消除了招聘中的猜测成分。
Their new AI assistant takes the guesswork out of hiring by matching you with top candidates who actually fit what you're looking for.
它不再让你逐份翻阅简历，而是根据你的标准筛选申请者，并突出显示最匹配的人选，帮你节省数小时时间，在合适人选出现时快速行动。
Instead of sifting through piles of resumes, it filters applicants based on your criteria and highlights the best matches, saving you hours and helping you move fast when the right person comes along.
最棒的是，这些优秀候选人已经都在LinkedIn上。
The best part is that those great candidates are already on LinkedIn.
事实上，通过LinkedIn聘用的员工，至少留任一年的可能性比通过主要竞争对手聘用的员工高出30%。
In fact, employees hired through LinkedIn are 30% more likely to stick around for at least a year compared to those hired through the leading competitor.
一次就聘对人。
Hire right the first time.
前往 linkedin.com/studybill 免费发布职位，然后推广该职位以使用 LinkedIn Jobs 的全新 AI 助手，更轻松快捷地找到顶尖候选人。
Post your job for free at linkedin.com/studybill, then promote it to use LinkedIn jobs new AI assistant, making it easier and faster to find top candidates.
免费发布职位请访问 linkedin.com/studybill。
That's linkedin.com/studybill to post your job for free.
适用条款和条件。
Terms and conditions apply.
亿万富翁投资者通常不会把资金存放在高收益储蓄账户中。
Billion dollar investors don't typically park their cash in high yield savings accounts.
相反，他们常常采用机构投资者常用的被动收入策略——私人信贷。
Instead, they often use one of the premier passive income strategies for institutional investors, private credit.
如今，得益于 Fundrise 收入基金，这一被动收入策略已向所有规模的投资者开放，该基金已吸引超6亿美元投资，分红率达7.97%。
Now the same passive income strategy is available to investors of all sizes, thanks to the Fundrise Income Fund, which has more than $600,000,000 invested and a 7.97% distribution rate.
随着传统储蓄利率下滑，难怪私人信贷在近几年已成长为一个万亿美元的资产类别。
With traditional savings yields falling, it's no wonder private credit has grown to be a trillion dollar asset class in the last few years.
立即访问 fundrise.com/wsb，只需几分钟即可投资 Fundrise 收入基金。
Visit fundrise.com/wsb to invest in the Fundrise Income Fund in just minutes.
该基金2025年的总回报率为8%，自成立以来的平均年总回报率为7.8%。
The fund's total return in 2025 was 8% and the average annual total return since inception is 7.8%.
过往业绩并不预示未来表现。
Past performance does not guarantee future results.
截至2025年1月20日12:30的当前分配率。
Current distribution rate as of twelvethirty onetwenty twenty five.
投资前请仔细考虑投资材料，包括目标、风险、费用和开支。
Carefully consider the investment material before investing, including objectives, risks, charges, and expenses.
更多信息可在fundrise.com/income的收益基金招募说明书中找到。
This and other information can be found in the income funds prospectus at fundraise.com/income.
这是一则付费广告。
This is a paid advertisement.
2026年，你终于要行动了。
2026 is the year you finally do it.
这一年，你不再只是空想，而是真正将它变为现实。
The year you stop sitting on that idea and actually turn it into something real.
我们每个人都有技能、想法和副项目，知道它们本可以做得更好，但梦想与行动之间的区别在于迈出第一步。
We all have skills, ideas, and side projects we know could be more, but the difference between dreaming and doing is taking that first step.
Shopify 为你提供在线和线下销售所需的一切。
Shopify gives you everything you need to sell online and in person.
数百万创业者，包括我自己，都已经迈出了这一步，从家喻户晓的大品牌转变为刚刚起步的初创创始人。
Millions of entrepreneurs, including myself, have already taken this leap from massive household brands to first time founders just getting started.
使用 Shopify，打造你的梦想店铺非常简单。
With Shopify, building your dream store is simple.
你可以从数百个精美的模板中选择，并自定义以匹配你的品牌。
You can choose from hundreds of beautiful templates and customize them to match your brand.
设置也非常快捷，内置的 AI 工具能撰写产品描述，甚至帮助编辑产品图片。
Setup is fast too, with built in AI tools that write product descriptions and even help edit product photos.
随着你的成长，Shopify 也会与你一同成长，帮助你从一个仪表板处理更多订单并拓展至新市场。
And as you grow, Shopify grows with you, helping you handle more orders and expand into new markets all from one dashboard.
在 2026 年，别再等待，立即用 Shopify 开始销售。
In 2026, stop waiting and start selling with Shopify.
立即注册每月1美元的试用版，今天就开始在shopify.com/wsb上销售。
Sign up for your $1 per month trial and start selling today at shopify.com/wsb.
前往shopify.com/wsb。
Go to shopify.com/wsb.
就是shopify.com/wsb。
That's shopify.com/wsb.
今年伊始，让Shopify陪伴你开启第一段旅程。
Hear your first this new year with Shopify by your side.
好了，我们继续节目。
All right, back to the show.
一旦一个利基市场被主导，就应逐步扩展到相关且更广泛的市场。
Once a niche market is dominated, then one should gradually expand into related and slightly broader markets.
杰夫·贝佐斯完全遵循了这一策略。
Jeff Bezos used this playbook to a tee.
贝佐斯的创始愿景是主导整个在线零售业，但他非常有意识地从图书开始。
Bezos' founding vision was to dominate all of online retail, but he very deliberately started with books.
即使在图书领域，亚马逊也吸引了特定的客户群体。
And even in books, Amazon appealed to a niche customer base.
对于那些住在书店很远或寻找书店里没有的稀有书籍的人来说，亚马逊是一个非常有吸引力的购书选择。
Amazon was a quite attractive option to purchase books for anyone who was located far from a bookstore or was looking for unusual books that just weren't held in stores.
然后他们逐步增加了新的品类，并主导了新的细分市场。
Then they gradually added new categories and dominated new segments.
这个想法实际上让我想起了投资组合的构建。
This idea actually reminds me a lot of portfolio construction.
当你试图分析市场上的每一只股票时，最终你对哪一只都难以精通。
When you try to analyze every stock in the market, you end up mastering none of them.
但当你深入专注于少数你真正理解的企业时，你就能获得真正的优势。
But when you focus deeply on a small number of businesses you truly understand, you can give yourself a real edge.
贝索斯将同样的纪律应用到了电子商务中。
Bezos applied that same discipline to e commerce.
在转向下一战之前，先果断赢得一场小战役。
Win one small battle decisively before moving on to the next.
我关于这一点要补充的最后一点是，最初专注于小范围并主导这个小市场所需的自律程度。
The last point I'd add on this is the amount of discipline it takes to focus small initially and dominate that small market.
你可以想象，贝索斯本可以出去筹集大量资金，直接开始销售一切商品。
You can imagine that Bezos, he could have gone out, raised a ton of money and just started selling everything.
但他具备这种自律和认知，他希望成为一小部分客户群体中在某一件事上做得最出色的人。
But he had that discipline and understanding that he wanted to be the best at one thing for a small subset of customers.
一旦他做到了这一点，就可以逐步扩展，慢慢抓住这一巨大的市场机遇。
And once he did that, he could then expand and gradually capture that significant market opportunity.
我们在节目中多次讨论过一个与股票投资相关的概念，那就是运气与能力的区别。
One concept we've discussed quite a bit on the show as it relates to stock investing is the concept of luck versus skill.
我认识一些人，他们认为无论是商业还是股票投资，取得巨大成功主要取决于运气。
I know people that believe that having massive success in either business or stock investing is mainly a factor of luck.
《异类》的作者马尔科姆·格拉德威尔宣称，成功是一系列幸运契机和偶然优势的结果。
Malcolm Gladwell, author of The Outliers, he declared that success results from a series of lucky breaks and arbitrary advantages.
沃伦·巴菲特曾 famously 将自己视为‘卵巢彩票’的赢家。
Warren Buffett famously considers himself a winner of the ovarian lottery.
杰夫·贝佐斯将亚马逊的成功归因于一次绝佳的天时地利，并开玩笑说这是一半运气、一半时机恰当，剩下的则是智慧。
And Jeff Bezos attributes Amazon's success to an incredible planetary alignment and jokes that it was half luck, half good timing, and the rest brains.
但当你观察像埃隆·马斯克、杰克·多西、史蒂夫·乔布斯这样的连续创业者，他们各自都创建了多家十亿美元级别的公司。
But when you look at serial entrepreneurs with multiple big wins like Elon Musk, Jack Dorsey, Steve Jobs, they've created multiple billion dollar companies.
因此，很难说成功仅仅是由运气决定的。
So it's sort of hard to argue that success is just a factor of luck.
由于创建亚马逊并非一项科学实验，我们无法客观地解决这场争论。
It's impossible to settle this debate objectively because creating Amazon isn't a science experiment.
我们只能看到这一种结果发生一次。
We only get to see this play out one time.
遗憾的是，我们无法看到那另外一千个平行宇宙。
And unfortunately, we don't get to see the 1,000 other parallel universes.
当样本量仅为一时，统计学就失效了。
Statistics just doesn't work with a sample size of one.
但我猜测，大多数听这个节目的人并不认为人生仅仅是由偶然决定的。
But I'd suspect that most who listen to this show don't believe that life is just a matter of chance.
我当然相信我们有能力塑造自己的未来。
I of course believe that we do have an ability to shape our own future.
还有一种观点认为，人必须为自己创造运气。
There's also the idea that one must create their own luck.
一家价值万亿美元的公司绝非偶然出现，但如果没有创始人无法控制的无数外部因素，它也永远不会出现。
A trillion dollar company just does not happen by accident, but it also doesn't happen without countless circumstances that are outside the founder's control.
企业家可能能够接连取得成功，因为他们拥有这种势能。
An entrepreneur might be able to stack up win after win because they have that momentum.
而这本身就赋予了他们相对于他人的优势。
And this inherently gives them an advantage relative to other people.
蒂尔甚至在这里引用了《圣经》中的一句话。
Thiel even pulls a quote from the Bible here.
《马太福音》25章29节说：凡有的，还要加给他，叫他有余。
Matthew 2five 29 states, For whoever has will be given more and they will have an abundance.
凡没有的，连他所有的也要夺去。
Whoever does not have, even what they have will be taken from them.
这就是帕累托法则或八二法则存在的原因之一。
This is part of the reason why the Pareto principle or the eightytwenty rule exists.
1906年，维尔弗雷多·帕累托发现意大利80%的土地由仅20%的人拥有。
In 1906, Vilfredo Pareto discovered that 80% of the land in Italy was owned by just 20 of the people.
他花园里20%的豌豆荚产出了80%的豌豆。
And 20% of the pea pods in his garden produced 80% of the peas.
这种现象在自然和社会世界中无处不在。
This phenomenon tends to show up everywhere in the natural and social world.
最大的城市远超所有小镇的总和，垄断型企业所攫取的价值远超数百万缺乏差异化的竞争对手。
The biggest cities dwarf all of the small towns put together and monopoly businesses capture more value than millions of undifferentiated competitors.
作为风险投资人，蒂尔对这种幂律动态的理解无人能及。
As a venture capitalist, Thiel understands this power law dynamic as well as anybody.
许多人用正态分布的视角来看待世界。
Many people view the world through a normal distribution.
在风险投资领域，这意味着糟糕的公司会失败，普通的公司停滞不前，而优秀的公司则价值翻倍甚至三倍增长。
In the venture world, this would mean that bad companies fail, average companies stay flat, and good companies double or triple in value.
现实是，大多数都会失败，而少数几个大赢家带来了全部的成果。
The reality is that the majority fail and a few big winners deliver all of the results.
在Teal的Founders Fund在2005年的这轮投资中，Facebook的回报超过了其他所有公司回报的总和。
In Teal's Founders Fund in this 2,005 funding round, Facebook returned more than all of the others combined.
Palantir也处于类似的轨迹上。
And Palantir was on a similar trajectory.
这种现实可能会让许多风险投资家选择投资大量不同的公司，希望其中有一家能成为下一个Facebook。
This reality could lead many VC investors to just select a ton of different companies to invest in, hoping that just one of them will become the next Facebook.
但Thiel实际上对此有不同的看法。
But Thiel actually looks at it differently.
他只会投资那些真正有潜力回报整个基金价值的公司，这排除了绝大多数机会。
He'll only invest in companies that actually have the potential to return the value of the entire fund, which eliminates the vast majority of opportunities.
尽管幂律对风险投资领域的专业人士很重要，但我认为它实际上是我们所有人都应掌握的重要概念，因为我们每个人在某种程度上都是投资者。
Although the power law is important for the specialized minds in venture capital, I think it's actually an important concept for all of us to take away because all of us are investors in our own way.
因为在商业世界中创造大量价值非常困难，大多数人可能根本不应该创业。
Because creating a lot of value in the business world is just difficult, most people probably shouldn't be starting their own business.
这让我想起史蒂夫·乔布斯的一句话：那些疯狂到认为自己能改变世界的人，恰恰就是改变了世界的人。
It reminds me of the Steve Jobs quote, The people who are crazy enough to think that they can change the world are the ones who do.
还有黄仁勋曾表示，如果重来一次，他不会创办英伟达，因为那是一段极其痛苦的经历。
And how Jensen Wong stated that if he could start over, he would not have started Nvidia because it was just such a painful experience.
学校教导我们要全面发展，对许多领域都略知一二，但幂律法则奖励那些专精于某一领域、跻身顶尖1%中的顶尖1%的人。
Schools teach us to be well rounded and know a little bit about a lot of subjects, but the power law rewards those who specialize and are in the top 1% of the top 1%.
在商业世界里，浅尝辄止者永远不会成功。
In the business world, dabblers never win.
传统观念会告诉你，你做什么并不重要，只要做得好就行。
Traditional dogma will tell you that it doesn't matter what you do as long as you do it well.
蒂尔的观点恰恰相反。
Thiel believes the opposite.
你做什么当然很重要，你应该全神贯注于自己擅长的事情。
It of course does matter what you do and you should focus relentlessly on something you're good at doing.
但在那之前，你必须认真思考它在未来是否会有价值。
Before that, you must think hard about whether it will be valuable in the future.
蒂尔将第九章命名为《基础》。
Thiel titled chapter nine, Foundations.
我发现这一章特别有趣，并且能与他提出的几个观点产生共鸣。
And I found this chapter to be particularly interesting and could relate with several of the points he made here.
他经常向朋友们强调基础的重要性，以至于他们创造了‘蒂尔法则’这个术语。
He's highlighted the importance of the foundation so often to his friends that they coined the term Thiel's Law.
他解释说，一个在根基上就出错的初创公司是无法被修复的。
He explains that a startup messed up at its foundation cannot be fixed.
因此，公司在最初阶段必须做好几件关键事情。
So there's a few key things that a company must get right in the very beginning.
美国的开国元勋们似乎深谙这一现实，他们在建立一个新国家、开创一个可能伟大的新事物时，非常慎重。
The founding fathers of The United States seemed to appreciate this reality as they were quite thoughtful about the founding of a new country and the opportunity to start something new that could be great.
他们花了数月时间思考一些重要问题，比如中央政府应拥有多少权力，国会的代表权应如何分配？
They spent a few months pondering important questions like how much power should the central government have and how should representation in Congress be divided?
无论你对他们的妥协持何种看法，这些妥协自那以后就极难改变。
Whatever your views on the compromises they've reached, they've been hard to change ever since.
例如，如今加利福尼亚州在参议院的代表名额与阿拉斯加州相同，尽管其人口是阿拉斯加的50倍。
For example, today, California has the same representation in the Senate as Alaska, even though it has 50 times as many people.
蒂尔认为，公司在这一点上类似于国家。
Thiel believes that companies are like countries in this way.
早期做出的错误决定，比如选错合伙人或雇错人，一旦做出就很难纠正。
Bad decisions made early on, like choosing the wrong partner or hiring the wrong people, are very hard to correct after those decisions are made.
创始人最重要、最关键的决定是和谁一起创办公司。
The first and most crucial decision for a founder is who you start the company with.
选择联合创始人就像结婚，而创始人之间的冲突也像离婚一样糟糕。
Choosing a co founder is like getting married, and founder conflict is just as ugly as divorce.
如果创始人最终产生不可调和的分歧，那么受苦的就是公司。
If the founders end up developing irreconcilable differences, then it's the company that suffers.
正因为如此，蒂尔希望深入了解创始团队的技术能力、他们的技能如何互补，以及他们合作得如何。
Because of this reality, Thiel wants to deeply understand the founding teams, their technical abilities, how their skills complement each other, and how well they work together.
在我的职业生涯中，我曾在几家不同的小型公司工作过。
I've worked at a couple of different smaller companies in my career.
我大学毕业后的第一份工作，那家公司有两个创始人合作得非常好。
And the first one I worked at, out of college, they had two founders that worked very well together.
CEO比较年轻，更有创业精神，就是特别喜欢成交订单。
The CEO was younger, more entrepreneurial, and just loved making a sale.
他请来的联合创始人年纪更大、更有经验，喜欢深入钻研项目的细节。
The co founder he brought on board was older, more experienced, and he just enjoyed getting deep into the weeds on projects.
他确实帮助平衡了CEO总想不断启动新项目、而还没完成另外五个项目就急于开始新项目的倾向。
And he really helped to balance out the CEO's desire to constantly start new things before he's finished starting his other five projects.
但要从零到一，光靠创始人是不够的，还需要一个团队。
But in order to go from zero to one, it takes more than just the founders, it takes a team.
这个团队必须与公司的长期愿景保持一致。
And that team must be aligned with the company's long term vision.
Thiel谈到了公司中任何不一致的问题。
Thiel talks a little bit about misalignment in any company.
为了预判公司中可能出现的不一致来源，区分三个概念是有帮助的。
To anticipate the likely sources of misalignment in a company, it's useful to distinguish between three concepts.
首先是所有权，谁合法拥有公司的股权。
First is ownership, who legally owns the company's equity.
其次是占有权，谁实际负责公司的日常运营。
The second is possession, who actually runs the company on a day to day basis.
第三是控制权，谁正式管理公司的事务。
And third is control, who formally governs the company's affairs.
典型的初创公司会将所有权分配给创始人、员工和投资者。
A typical startup allocates ownership among founders, employees, and investors.
负责公司运营的管理者和员工享有占有权。
The managers and employees who operate the company enjoy possession.
而董事会通常由创始人和投资者组成，行使控制权。
And a board of directors usually comprising founders and investors exercises control.
但随着参与人数的增加，出现不一致的可能性也会增大。
But as you add more people into the equation, the opportunity for misalignment can grow.
Teal 以 DMV 为例，说明了最极端的不一致情况。
Teal highlights the DMV as an example of misalignment at its most extreme.
对于不住在美国的人，DMV 是机动车管理局的缩写。
For those not based in The US, the DMV stands for the Department of Motor Vehicles.
我认为我们这些在美国的人，至少都曾在那儿有过一次不愉快的经历。
And I think most of us here in The US have at least had one poor experience there.
总的来说，DMV 以漫长的等待时间、缺乏动力或漠不关心的服务著称，让人感觉根本无法改善这种状况。
Broadly speaking, the DMV is known for its long wait times, unmotivated or indifferent service, and what feels like a situation that's just hopeless to try and improve.
当官僚体系变得如此庞大，以至于没有人真正有动力去改善结果时，就会出现 DMV 这样的情况。
The DMV is what you get when bureaucracy grows so large that no one has a real incentive to improve the outcomes.
大型企业比 DMV 表现得更好，但仍然容易出现错位。
Big corporations do better than the DMV, but they're still prone to misalignment.
如果你看看像通用汽车这样的大公司，例如，首席执行官会持有公司部分股票，但只占总数的微不足道一部分。
If you look at a large company like General Motors, for example, the CEO will own some of the company's stock, but only a trivial portion of the total.
因此，他有动力去发布足以让他保住高薪和公司专机的季度业绩。
Therefore, he's incentivized to publish quarterly results that are good enough for him to keep his high salary and corporate jet.
蒂尔认为，一般来说，公司里所有相关人员都应全职聘用。
Thiel believes that as a general rule, everyone involved in the company should be hired full time.
当然，这并不总是奏效，因为你还需要聘请外部律师或会计师，但任何不持有股票期权或领取固定薪水的人，本质上都是利益不一致的。
Of course, this doesn't always work as you need to hire outside lawyers or accountants, but anyone who doesn't own stock options or draw a regular salary is fundamentally misaligned.
他们往往倾向于追求短期利益，而不利于创造长期价值。
They can tend to be biased for claiming value in the near term and not be helpful in creating long term value.
对此，蒂尔引用了肯·凯西的一句话：‘你要么在车上，要么不在车上。’
To this point, Teal ties in the saying from Ken Casey, You're either on the bus or off the bus.
蒂尔对创始人如何给自己报酬也非常感兴趣。
Teal is also quite interested in how the founders compensate themselves.
有趣的是，他在投资了数百家初创公司后发现的一个最清晰的模式是：CEO拿的工资越少，公司表现就越好。
Interestingly, one of the clearest patterns he's noticed from investing in hundreds of startups is the less the CEO gets paid, the better the company does.
他认为，对于一家早期的风投支持的初创公司来说，CEO的年薪不应超过15万美元。
He believes that there's no reason for the CEO of an early stage venture backed startup to receive more than $150,000 per year in salary.
这是因为高薪会激励CEO维护现状，保住自己的薪水，而不是与其他人一起主动暴露问题并积极解决。
This is because high pay incentivizes the CEO to defend the status quo along with their salary and not work with everyone else to bring problems to the surface and fix them aggressively.
相反，一个薪资低但股权高的CEO会更关注提升公司整体的价值。
On the contrary, a CEO with a low salary and high equity stake will focus on increasing the value of the company as a whole.
低CEO薪酬也为其他人树立了标准。
Low CEO pay also sets the standard for everybody else.
如果CEO明显全身心投入公司成功，那么他们更有可能获得周围人的支持。
If the CEO is clearly all in in making the company successful, then they're more likely to get buy in from everybody else around them.
我想在今天的节目结尾讨论一家可能经历了自己从零到一时刻的公司，而这家公司目前可能被市场误解或低估，那就是优步。
I wanted to close out today's episode by discussing a company that potentially had its own zero to one moment and currently might be a bit misunderstood or underappreciated by the market, and that company is Uber.
我目前没有持有优步的仓位，但我的联合主持人斯蒂格·布罗德森最近建仓，并在节目中推荐了它。
I currently do not own a position in Uber, but my cohost, Stig Brodersen recently initiated a position and pitched it here on the show.
我的同事肖恩·奥马利和丹尼尔·马尔卡，他们在去年将它加入了他们的内在价值投资组合。
My colleagues, Sean O'Malley and Daniel Malca, they added it to their intrinsic value portfolio just last year.
我还应该提到，比尔·阿克曼的公司Pershing Square已建成了近30亿美元的优步仓位。
I should also mention that Bill Ackman's firm, Pershing Square, they've built up a nearly $3,000,000,000 position in Uber.
在阿克曼2024年的年度信中，他写道：‘Pershing Square基金在2025年初建仓，因为优步在2024年股价下跌提供了一个以极具吸引力的估值收购优步的机会。’
In Ackman's 2024 annual letter, he wrote, The Pershing Square Fund acquired a position in early twenty twenty five as the decline in Uber's share price at the '24 provided an opportunity to acquire Uber at an extremely attractive valuation.
这一机会的出现，是由于市场对自动驾驶汽车带来的长期威胁的担忧。
This was made possible due to concerns regarding a perceived long term threat from autonomous vehicles.
我们相信这些担忧是毫无根据的。
We believe these concerns are misplaced.
阿克曼预计，得益于其预订总额的强劲增长和高水平的经营杠杆，优步在未来几年内将以30%以上的速度实现盈利增长。
Ackman expects Uber to compound earnings at 30% plus over the next several years, thanks to their robust growth in gross bookings and their high level of operating leverage.
优步最初是联合创始人加勒特·坎普的一个梦想。
Uber started out as a dream for Garrett Camp, Uber's co founder.
2008年，他将第一家公司StumbleUpon以7500万美元的价格出售给eBay后，对出租车行业的不满促使他思考：是否可以通过手机提供叫车服务。
After selling his first company, StumbleUpon, to eBay for $75,000,000 in 2008, his frustration with the taxi industry led him to wonder whether a ride hailing service could be delivered through mobile phones.
这距离iPhone发布仅一年，因此坎普在这个想法上非常领先。
This was just one year after the launch of the iPhone, so Camp was very early to the game on this idea.
他住在旧金山，听起来或许难以置信，但旧金山政府刻意将出租车牌照数量限制在1500张。
He lived in San Francisco and as crazy as it sounds, San Francisco deliberately kept the number of taxi permits kept at 1,500.
这确保了出租车的需求远超供给，导致等待时间长，但司机收入不错。
So this guaranteed that there would be more demand for taxis than there was supply and you had slow wait times, good compensation for drivers.
整体服务体验非常糟糕。
The overall service was just terrible.
坎普在酒吧喝酒时，向作家、投资者和播客主持人蒂姆·费里斯提出了这个想法。
Camp posed the idea to author, investor, and podcaster, Tim Ferriss, while having drinks at a bar.
费里斯认为这是一个绝佳的点子。
Ferriss thought it was just a wonderful idea.
Uber的诞生是一个典型的从零到一的时刻，因为它不仅仅是改进了出租车服务，而是通过庞大的司机网络，创造了一种全新的从A点到B点的出行方式。
And the creation of Uber was just a classic zero to one moment because it didn't just improve taxis, it created an entirely new way to get from point A to point B through their massive driver network.
事后看来，出租车行业显然是一个亟待颠覆的行业。
In hindsight, taxis were an obvious industry ripe for disruption.
它通常根本不是最好的体验。
It tends to just not be the best experience.
作为一名价值投资者，我不喜欢看到我的账单一英里一英里地不断上涨。
As a value investor, I prefer not to see my bill tick up in front of me mile after mile.
通过Uber，全球大多数人都能一键召唤车辆，从一开始就能享受透明的定价和实时追踪功能。
With Uber, most people all around the world can summon a car with a touch of a button, have transparent pricing and live tracking from the start.
Uber还释放了数百万辆闲置私家车的价值。
And Uber also unlocked the value of millions of personal vehicles that were sitting idle.
如果我们用蒂尔的框架来分析Uber，Uber最初并没有在现有市场中竞争。
If we apply Thiel's framework to Uber, Uber actually didn't compete in an existing market at first.
它通过发明一种全新的方式，使旧市场变得过时。
It made the old market just obsolete by inventing something entirely new.
前几天，我与我们精英社群的一位成员通了电话，他是个特别喜欢聊股票的人。
So the other day I was on a call with a member from our Mastermind community, and he's a member who just loves to talk stocks.
在他的投资组合中，他最看好的是Uber和Lyft两家公司。
For his portfolio, he was actually most excited about both Uber and Lyft.
他告诉我，他认为Uber会成为下一个万亿美元级别的公司，这当然引起了我的极大兴趣。
He mentioned to me that he viewed Uber as the next trillion dollar company, which of course is a comment that always piques my interest.
截至录制时，Uber的市值低于2000亿美元。
As of the time of recording, Uber's market cap is below 200,000,000,000.
这意味着公司价值需要从当前价格翻五倍。
That would imply a 5X increase in the value of the company from today's prices.
Uber正抓住网约车和配送业务的长期增长趋势。
Uber's writing the secular growth trend of both ride hailing and delivery.
经过深思熟虑，经过几期讨论后，我不得不认为这家公司未来大有可为。
And after pondering it, after several episodes and discussions, I can't help but think that there's just quiet an opportunity ahead for this company.
Z世代成长于世界触手可及的时代。
Gen Z grew up with the world at their fingertips.
任何问题的答案都能通过一次谷歌搜索找到。
The answer to any question was a Google search away.
他们只需轻点按钮就能联系任何朋友。
They could contact any of their friends with the touch of a button.
任何商品都能在两天内送到家门口。
Any item could be delivered to their doorstep within two days.
如今，有了Uber，他们可以随时叫到一辆车，或让餐食直接送到手中。
Now with Uber, they can get a meal delivered right to them or call up a ride on a moment's notice.
Uber凭借其密集的网络，既降低了价格，又实现了业界领先的低延迟，平均等待时间仅四分钟，为客户创造了强大的价值主张。
Is well positioned to continue to usher in the era of convenience as their dense network both minimizes prices and creates best in class latency with average wait times of just four minutes, creating a strong value proposition for customers.
因此，我们那位居住在美国主要城市的社区成员也提到，在市区使用Uber简直是不二之选。
So our community member who lives in a major US city here, he also mentioned how much of a no brainer it is to use Uber in the metro area.
当你考虑车辆成本、保险、维护、油费、停车费和折旧时，使用Uber能显著降低交通开支。
So when you consider the cost of the vehicle, insurance, maintenance, gas, parking, depreciation, Uber makes it significantly cheaper to use transportation.
通过他们的Uber One计划，最频繁的用户可以获得乘车积分、优先接入评分最高的司机、享受零配送费以及其他独家促销活动。
And with their Uber One program, their most frequent users earn credits on rides, get priority access to top rated drivers, get access to $0 delivery fees and other exclusive promotions.
我忍不住想，Uber是不是就在众目睽睽之下，成为华尔街下一个科技新宠。
And I just can't help but wonder whether Uber is Wall Street's next tech darling, just hiding in plain sight.
由于Uber长期亏损，我本人一直对认真研究这家公司抱有偏见。
Given that Uber was unprofitable for so long, I personally just developed this bias against seriously looking into the company.
此外，市场还担忧自动驾驶汽车的发展将如何影响全球为Uber提供服务的800万司机。
Plus there's the market's worries around autonomous vehicles and how will that impact their 8,000,000 drivers globally who provide these services.
那么问题来了，随着自动驾驶汽车的兴起，这一格局将如何变化？
So the question then becomes, how does the dynamic change with the rise of autonomous vehicles?
会不会只有少数几家自动驾驶汽车供应商逐渐蚕食Uber所依赖的分散化车辆供给？
Will there be a few AV providers that chip away at the fragmented supply of vehicles that Uber's tapping into?
还是会有众多供应商依赖Uber来提供流动性与需求，以最大限度地保持这些车辆的运行？
Or will there be several providers that will then be reliant on Uber to provide liquidity and demand to keep these vehicles moving as much as possible.
对于优步来说，好消息是他们领先了十五年，并建立了一个客户早已习惯使用的网络。
The good news for Uber is they have a fifteen year head start and they've built a network that customers are just accustomed to using.
优步是那种公司名称本身已成为动词的企业。
Uber is one of those companies where the name itself is a verb.
昨晚比赛结束后，我叫了优步回家。
I Ubered home after the game last night.
我认为，与其让消费者使用四个不同的叫车应用，不如让他们使用一个，最多两个，这样更合理。
I think it makes sense that instead of consumers having say four different ride hailing apps, they have one, maybe two.
这可以整合供给，让体验尽可能无缝和便捷。
That aggregates the supply and makes the experience as seamless and convenient as possible.
优步已经宣布与多家自动驾驶公司达成合作，这使他们成为自动驾驶时代全球需求的聚合者。
Uber has already announced partnerships with several AV companies, which positions them as the global demand aggregator for the autonomous era.
但在自动驾驶带来的阴影背后，该公司的业务也正迎来显著的盈利转折点。
But behind the AV overhang the company is facing, the business is also seeing a significant inflection of profitability.
例如，仅看自由现金流，优步在2019年亏损了近50亿美元。
So when you just look at the free cash flow, for example, Uber lost nearly $5,000,000,000 in 2019.
自2022年转折以来，你看到自由现金流飙升至今天的80多亿美元。
After inflecting in 2022, you've seen free cash flow skyrocket to over $8,000,000,000 today.
所以这有点讽刺，优步多年来因亏损而备受批评，以股东利益为代价提供折扣乘车服务。
So it's sort of ironic how Uber, it got a ton of flack for years for being unprofitable, handing out discounted rides at the expense of shareholders.
但如今，他们建立了一个主导性的网络，持续推出新的服务，比如为更注重成本的顾客提供的拼车服务，以及优步直达，让顾客能从商家处获得当日送达服务。
Then today, they've built out a dominant network that continues to provide new types of offerings such as route sharing for more cost conscious customers and Uber Direct, which allows customers to get same day delivery from businesses.
当我听公司CEO讲话时，他提到了两轮和三轮车服务。
And as I was listening to a talk the CEO was giving, he mentioned something about two wheeler and three wheeler offerings.
我当时想，这是什么？
Was like, Okay, what is this?
我想这是他们在印度最受欢迎的服务之一，允许顾客订购摩托车出租车或三轮车。
I guess it's some of their more popular offerings in India, which allows customers to order a motorcycle taxi or a three wheeler vehicle.
因此，他们在利用自己构建的这个应用和网络方面，变得相当有创意。
So they're getting quite creative in ways to tap into this app and this network they've built.
总之，关于优步有太多值得讨论的内容了。
Anyways, there's just so much to talk about with regards to Uber.
如果你像我一样对Uber很感兴趣，别忘了关注我几周后发布的那一期节目，我会分享Uber的故事，以及他们从零到一的关键时刻是如何发生的。
If you're pretty interested in Uber like I am, be sure to stay tuned for my episode coming out in a couple of weeks where I'll be sharing the story of Uber and how exactly their zero to one moment played out.
我很想听听大家对Uber投资逻辑的反馈。
I'd love to get feedback on the Uber investment thesis.
我认为这是一家非常值得研究的公司。
I think it's an incredibly interesting company to look at.
欢迎通过LinkedIn或X给我发消息，你可以找到我。
Feel free to shoot me a note on LinkedIn or X, so you can find me.
很简单，直接搜索我的名字，Clay Finck即可。
Pretty easy, just search for my name, Clay Finck.
那么，我们就先说到这里，结束本期节目。
So with that, I think we'll close out the episode there.
非常感谢你的收听，希望下次还能见到你。
Thanks a lot for tuning in, and I hope to see you again next time.
感谢收听TIP。
Thanks for listening to TIP.
请在您喜爱的播客应用上关注《我们研究亿万富翁》，并访问 investorspodcast.com 获取节目笔记和教育资源。
Follow We Study Billionaires on your favorite podcast app and visit the investorspodcast.com for show notes and educational resources.
本播客仅用于信息和娱乐目的，不提供财务、投资、税务或法律建议。
This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not provide financial, investment, tax, legal advice.
内容为非个性化信息，未考虑您的目标、财务状况或需求。
The content is impersonal and does not consider your objectives, financial situation, or needs.
投资涉及风险，包括可能损失本金，过往表现不保证未来结果。
Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal, and past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
听众应在做出任何财务决策前自行研究并咨询合格专业人士。
Listeners should do their own research and consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.
本节目中的任何内容均不构成购买或出售任何证券或其他金融产品的推荐或要约。
Nothing on this show is a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security or other financial product.
主持人、嘉宾以及投资者播客网络可能持有节目中讨论的证券，并可能在任何时候未经通知而改变持仓。
Hosts, guests, and The Investor's Podcast Network may hold positions in securities discussed and may change those positions at any time without notice.
对任何第三方产品、服务或广告商的提及均不构成背书，投资者播客网络不对它们所作的任何声明负责。
References to any third party products, services, or advertisers do not constitute endorsements, and The Investor's Podcast Network is not responsible for any claims made by them.
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