提示792：与凯尔·格里夫一起探索历史上最奇特的金融故事中的关键教训

因此，这个转换计划的创始人兼董事约翰·布伦特受到两件事的驱动。

So the director and founder of this conversion scheme named John Blunt was driven by two things.

第一是不惜一切代价推高股价。

The first was to drive up the stock price by any means necessary.

第二是在转换过程中制造尽可能多的混乱。

And the second was to create as much confusion in the conversion process as possible.

注意，这里根本没有提到创造实际价值。

Note that there's no mention of actually creating value.

所以你可以看到，在政府的帮助下，操纵南海公司股价会更容易。

So you can see how with the government's help, it would be even easier to manipulate the price of the South Sea company.

将债券转换为股票的人越多，对股票的需求就越大，从而进一步推高股价。

The more people who converted their bonds to the stock would add additional demand to the stock, further increasing its prices.

为了火上浇油，布伦特甚至允许杠杆购买南海公司的股票，让新投资者只需支付每股20美分就能认购股票。

And to stoke the fire, Blunt even allow leverage to acquire shares in South Sea, allowing new investors to subscribe to shares for only 20¢ on the dollar.

由于布伦特与政府有密切关系，他甚至更进一步。

Blunt took it even a step further due to the connections that he had with the government.

毕竟，有许多国会议员持有南海公司的股票。

There were after all many members of parliament who owned South Sea company stock.

因此，布伦特鼓动议会通过了一项名为《泡沫法案》的法律，禁止其他企业尝试利用公开市场。

So Blunt encouraged parliament to pass something called the Bubble Act, which made it illegal for other businesses to try to take advantage of public markets.

你可以说他只是想阻止竞争对手争夺资金流入。

You could argue that he was just trying to dissuade competition for fund inflows.

如果只有一家公司，那么所有的资金都会流向它。

If you have one company, then all the inflows go there.

如果有30家公司，你就得在它们之间分配资金流入，尽管分配并不均匀。

If you have 30, then you have to distribute the inflows, albeit unevenly among all of them.

布伦特清楚自己在做什么。

Blunt knew exactly what he was doing.

不幸的是，所有这些操纵最终反噬到了布伦特自己身上。

Unfortunately, all this fiddling ended up backfiring right on Blunt's face.

这并没有阻止其他企业进入公开市场，反而吓跑了已经参与市场的投资者。

Instead of dissuading other businesses to try out the open market, ended up scaring investors who were already invested in the market.

这引发了一系列连锁反应。

And that started a domino effect.

保证金贷款被要求追缴，进一步加剧了抛售压力。

Margin loans were called in forcing more selling pressure.

国际投资者抛售了他们的股票。

International owners sold their stock.

随后，南海公司的贷款方斯沃德布莱德银行倒闭了。

Then South Sea Company's own lender, Swordblade Bank failed.

牛顿的参与相当有趣。

So Newton's involvement was pretty interesting.

他其实很早就买入了，赚了一笔可观的利润，然后卖出了。

He actually bought it pretty early, made some decent money, and then he sold it.

但随着股价上涨，他又重新入场了。

But as the stock price rose, he actually reentered the position.

即使在泡沫破裂、股价暴跌时，他对这家公司的信心仍促使他继续买入更多股票。

Then even as the stock was in free fall as the bubble popped, his conviction in the business encouraged him to purchase even more shares.

如果他只是持有所有股票并在峰值时卖出，他本可以赚到25万英镑。

Had he just held all of his shares and sold near the peak, he would have had £250,000.

但事实上，他几乎损失了所有财产。

Instead, he lost nearly everything.

因此，2013年一篇发表在《计算机与人类行为》上的论文对FOMO给出了一个很好的定义，称其为一种普遍的焦虑，担心他人正经历着自己错过的美好体验。

So a 2013 paper titled Computers and Human Behavior had a great definition of FOMO, calling it a pervasive apprehension that others might be having rewarding experiences from which one is absent.

这几乎完美地描述了艾萨克·牛顿以及众多其他投资者在南海公司泡沫期间所经历的情况。

And that pretty much perfectly defines exactly what happened to Isaac Newton and scores of other investors during the South Sea company bubble.

这就是为什么抵御FOMO如此关键。

And that's why protecting yourself from FOMO was just so essential.

以下是五个快速避免FOMO的方法。

So here's five quick ways to avoid FOMO.

第一，保持自律。

The first, stay disciplined.

如果你对某项投资有了想法，就果断执行，不要因为别人在赚钱而你没有就改变计划。

If you have an idea for an investment, execute it and don't change it because others are making money while you aren't.

第二是利用美元成本平均法。

The second is to take advantage of dollar cost averaging.

如果你看好某个长期投资标的，可以分批逐步投入资金。

If there's a position that you like for the long term, add small amounts of money to it over time.

这将帮助你避免承担过度集中的风险。

This will help you avoid taking excessive concentration risk.

第三，简单来说，要避开那些你认识的非投资者提供的热门内幕消息。

Third is to just simply, you know, avoid hot tips from people that you know who are not investors.

第四，如果你觉得一旦卖出股票后股价上涨会感到后悔，那就卖出后不要再追踪该资产的价格。

Fourth, if you think that you'll regret selling a stock if the price increases, then avoid tracking an asset's price after you sell it.

第五，专注于长期目标。

And fifth is to just focus on the long term.

如果你知道大幅波动会促使你犯错，就不要每天查看股价。

Do not check stock prices daily if you know that large fluctuations are gonna cause you to make errors.

海蒂·格林是你可能从未听说过的最优秀的价值投资者之一，或许是因为她在本杰明·格雷厄姆出生之前就已经是价值投资者了。

Now Hetty Green is one of the best value investors that you've never heard of, probably because she was a value investor before Benjamin Graham was even born.

而且，在男性主导融资和投资的时代，她作为一个强势女性，也并未得到任何帮助。

And it also didn't help that she was a powerful woman in a time when men ruled financing and investing.

海蒂通过将继承来的资金投入回报丰厚的投资，为自己打造了财富。

Hetty made her forge him by leveraging the money that she received from her inheritance into investments that paid off.

她的投资方式其实并不会让你感到惊讶。

The investing part was nothing that would probably surprise you.

她拥有铁路等资产，不仅持有公司的股票，还持有其债券，从而对企业的基本面有了非常深入的了解。

She owned things like railroads and not just the company's equity, but also their bonds, giving her a very detailed look at a business's fundamentals.

她在铁路行业的黄金时期进行投资，并与美国历史上一些最杰出的铁路巨头合作，比如J.P.摩根、安德鲁·卡内基和范德比尔特船长。

And she invested in railroads during its heyday, along with some of the best railroad titans in American history, such as JPMorgan, Andrew Carnegie, and Commodore Vanderbilt.

但海蒂的触角遍及各种资产类别。

But Hetty had her hands in all sorts of asset classes.

她拥有定期支付股息的抵押贷款。

She owned mortgages that paid regular dividends.

例如，她的房产从波士顿延伸到旧金山，从缅因州覆盖到德克萨斯州。

For instance, she owned property from Boston to San Francisco and between Maine and Texas.

她拥有蒸汽船、金矿、铁矿，甚至教堂。

She owned steamboats, gold mines, iron mines, and even churches.

她是原始的价值投资者。

She is the original value investor.

以下是她关于房地产价值投资的说法。

Here's what she said regarding value investing in real estate.

我会建议任何手头有500美元的女性投资房地产。

I would advise any woman with $500 at her command to invest in real estate.

她应在拍卖时，趁情况不利时出手购买。

She should buy at an auction on occasions when circumstances are for sale.

如果她留意这样的机会，她一定会发现，能以约为评估价值三分之一的价格购得一块土地。

If she will look out for such opportunities, she will surely come and she will find that she can buy a parcel of land at about one third of its appraised value.

我认为房地产投资是利用闲置资金最安全的方式。

I regard real estate investments as a safest means of using idle money.

在这里你可以清楚地看到，她对价格与价值有着极强的把握，能够清晰理解价格与价值如何随着时间推移而趋同。

Here you can clearly see that she had a very firm grasp of price and value and could clearly understand how price and value were likely to converge over time.

但她天性也是一个精打细算的买家。

But she was also a bargain hunter by nature.

因此，有一次她发现了一辆马车，价格比她丈夫刚买的那辆还便宜。

So at one point, she found a horse carriage that was cheaper than the one that her husband had just purchased.

她先找到一个对卖家心怀怨恨的人，从而获得了折扣。

She secured the discount by first finding someone who held a grudge against the seller.

然后她从这个人那里了解了这辆马车的所有缺点。

She then learned from this person all of the faults in the carriage.

当她向卖家提出购买时，她一一列举了这些缺点，最终以降价购得了这辆马车。

Then when she proposed buying it from the seller, she listed off all the faults and bought the carriage at a reduced price.

所以海蒂也极其吝啬。

So Hetty was also ridiculously frugal.

她甚至因此被载入了吉尼斯世界纪录。

She was actually in the Guinness Book of World Records for that.

据报道，她为了省钱，曾购买过一袋袋破损的全麦饼干。

So she reportedly bought sacks of broken graham crackers just to save money.

她去肉铺时，会讨要免费的骨头给她的鸭子吃。

When she went to the butcher, she would ask for free bones for her duck.

她为土豆之类的东西讨价还价，买下极其便宜的商品。

She bargained for incredibly cheap goods such as things like potatoes.

她从寄宿公寓搬到酒店，以避免缴纳城市和州税，因为她实际上没有申报居住地。

She would move from boarding houses to hotels to avoid paying city and state taxes as she actually didn't report a residence.

她曾有一次出庭，因为她试图逃避为她最爱的狗支付2美元的执照费。

Once she had a court appearance because she tried evading a $2 licensing fee for her favorite dog.

当她积累起六千万美元的财富时，她却住在每周仅需五美元的寄宿公寓里。

Now, by the time she'd amassed a $60,000,000 fortune, she was living in a $5 per week boarding house.

海蒂·格林的主要教训是，你可以通过投资产生收入的资产变得非常成功。

Now, think the main lesson from Hetty Green was that you could become very successful investing in income producing assets.

我承认，我对这一类投资完全忽视。

An area of investing that I admit, I completely ignore.

海蒂表明，杠杆并不是必需的。

Hetty showed that leverage wasn't necessary.

她从未进行过保证金交易。

She never ended up buying on margin.

她相信商业成功的秘诀就是：在没人想要资产时买入，在人人都想要时卖出。

And she believed that the secret to business success was to simply buy when nobody wanted the asset and sell when everybody wanted it.

我将用她在1907年恐慌期间学到的一些教训来结束关于海蒂·格林的这部分内容。

I'll leave the section on Hetty Green with some of the lessons that she learned during the panic of nineteen o seven.

我说过，富人已濒临崩溃，恐慌是不可避免的。

I said that the rich were approaching the brink and that panic was inevitable.

有一些迹象是我无法忽视的。

There were signs I just couldn't ignore.

一些街上最稳健的人来找我，想把各种东西脱手，从豪华住宅到汽车都有。

Some of the solidest men on the street came to me and wanted to unload all sorts of things from palatial residences to automobiles.

当时价值被严重高估，当抛售开始时，证券持有者发现很难从公众那里换到真金白银。

There had been an enormous inflation of values and when the unloading process began, the holders of securities found great difficulty in getting real money from the public.

我看到了事态的征兆，于是开始悄悄收回我的资金，进行一些交易，尽可能多地把财富掌握在手中，以应对我知道即将来临的那一天。

I saw the handwriting on the wall and I began quietly to call in my money, making a few transactions and getting my hands onto every available dollar of my fortune against the day that I knew was coming.

当崩盘来临时，我手里有钱，我是少数真正有现金的人之一。

When the crash came, I had my money and I was one of the very few who really had it.

其他人有的是证券和它们的价值。

The others had securities and their values.

我有的是现金，他们来找我。

I had the cash and they came to me.

他们确实成群结队地来找我。

They did come to me in droves.

接下来我们继续。

So moving on here.

一连串只装了极少油量、却充满大量海水的集装箱油罐，是如何帮助沃伦·巴菲特实现最成功的投资之一的呢？

How did a series of container tanks holding very, very minimal amounts of oil and a lot of seawater help generate one of Warren Buffett's most successful investments?

首先，我们来看这位匿名消息提供者，人们只知道他叫‘声音’。

First, we look at this anonymous tipster known only as the voice.

这个人报告说，位于新泽西州贝扬的一处仓库里，编号为6006的油罐实际上并没有装满沙拉油，而是灌满了海水，以制造出满罐的假象。

So this person reported that tank number 6006 in a warehouse in Bayonne, New Jersey was actually not full of salad oil as it was supposed to be, but was also filled with seawater to give the appearance of being full.

那他为什么要举报呢？

So why did he report this?

是因为无聊、受虐待，还是有一点内疚？

Was he bored, mistreated, or did he have a hint of guilt?

实际上，以上都不是。

Actually, none of the above.

他这么做纯粹出于自私的动机，因为他想用更多信息来换取金钱。

He did this purely for selfish reasons as he wanted money in exchange for more information.

这个仓库的主人是一位名叫蒂诺·德安杰莱斯的绅士，他是个大胆但相当粗心的骗子，显然一生中大部分时间，尤其是成年后，都一直在犯罪。

Now this warehouse was owned by a gentleman named Tino DeAngeles, a brazen but, you know, kind of sloppy crook who had clearly been a criminal for probably his entire life and definitely his entire adult life.

例如，他的商业记录包括以下内容。

For instance, his business record included the following.

因向南斯拉夫出口劣质食用脂肪而被罚款十万美元。

Being fined for a $100,000 for exporting substandard cooking fat to Yugoslavia.

因销售劣质肉制品而被罚款十万美元。

Being fined a $100,000 for selling inferior meat products.

再次因向德国出口劣质猪油被罚款10万美元。

Being fined yet another 100,000 for exporting inferior lard to Germany.

被指控伪造文件、逃税和篡改库存。

Accused of falsifying documents, tax evasion, and falsifying inventories.

因此，有这么多违规行为，你可能会觉得这个人很难找到商业伙伴。

So with all these infractions, you'd think that it would have been very, very hard for this guy to find business partners.

但在这之后，他最终筹集了50万美元，成立了联合原油植物油精炼公司。

But after all this happened, he ended up raising $500,000 to create the Allied Crude Vegetable Oil Refining Corporation.

于是，蒂诺创立了这家公司，以利用美国政府的‘粮食和平’计划，该计划旨在粮食过剩时维持农产品价格，并向饥饿国家提供剩余食用油。

So Tino created this business to help take advantage of the US government program known as Food for Peace, which was set up to help keep crop prices elevated when there was an excess supply and to provide surplus oil to countries with starving populations.

鉴于蒂诺可疑的背景，这对他来说简直是绝佳的猎场。

Given Tino's sketchy history, this was a perfect hunting grounds for him.

他带了22名前雇员过来，以今天的币值计算，每年支付他们超过20万美元，从事一些非常琐碎的劳动。

He took 22 employees with him from a past venture and paid them over $200,000 annually in today's dollars to do pretty menial labor.

当时，美国运通有一家子公司，名为美国运通现场仓储公司（AEFW）。

So American Express at this time had a subsidiary called American Express Field Warehousing Company or AEFW.

AEFW的职责是通过子公司产生约50万美元的利润。

And AEFW's mandate was to generate approximately $500,000 in profits from the subsidiary.

问题是，它的表现并不理想。

The problem was that it just didn't perform very well.

在19年中，它只在10年实现了盈利，并在1962年累计亏损。

It turned a profit in only ten of nineteen years and had cumulative losses in 1962.

AEFW有500个客户账户，但其中只有两个账户创造了绝大部分利润。

AEFW had 500 client accounts, but only two of them actually generated a lion's share of profits.

而这两家公司都由蒂诺·德安杰莱斯拥有。

And both of these companies were owned by Tino DeAngeles.

因此在1962年，沃伦·巴菲特刚刚将他的11个合伙企业合并为一个，即巴菲特合伙有限公司（BPL）。

So in 1962, Warren Buffett had recently consolidated his 11 partnerships into one creating Buffett Partnerships Limited, BPL.

当时，巴菲特非常专注于‘雪茄烟蒂’型投资。

At this time, Buffett was very, very focused on cigar butts.

你知道的，就是那些廉价、破旧、没人想拥有的小公司，但巴菲特认为它们被错误定价和误解了。

You know, the cheap beat up small companies that nobody wanted to own, but Buffett felt were mispriced and misunderstood.

因此，危机爆发是因为最终人们发现这些油罐里装的并不是本应装的沙拉油。

So the crisis happened because eventually it came to light that the tanks were not full of salad oil as they were supposed to be.

对任何观察者来说，这显然是一场骗局。

And to anyone looking at it, it was extremely obvious that it was a fraud.

首先，德安德罗斯购买了石油期货，推高了价格，因为他知道全球对石油的需求将非常旺盛，而俄罗斯的农作物歉收将扰乱供应。

First, DeAndros bought oil futures pushing up prices as he knew that demand for oil would be very heavy around the world and that Russia had some failed crops which would disrupt supply.

当常规客户要求查看相关记录时，他们立即揭发了这场骗局。

When regulars demanded to see allied records, they immediately uncovered the fraud.

但正如福雷斯特在书中所写，其实并不难看出这是一场骗局。

But as Forrester writes in his book, it wasn't really that hard to figure out that this was a fraud.

他写道，根据人口普查局的数据，AEFW的仓库收据所记载的植物油总量是美国所有石油总量的两倍。

He writes, according to Census Bureau statistics, AEFW's warehouse receipts totaled twice as much vegetable oil as all of the oil in The US.

到1963年，已签发的仓库收据涉及9.37亿美元的石油，而这些石油的实际价值仅为8750万美元，实际数量甚至不足1亿美元。

By the 1963, warehouse receipts had been issued for £937,000,000 of oil worth 87,500,000.0, which while actual quantities were less than 100,000,000.

如今，美国运通首席执行官霍华德·克拉克决定出售AEFW，因为他认为这家子公司因丑闻而受到牵连。

Now Amex CEO Howard Clark had decided to sell AEFW as he felt that the subsidiary was compromised due to the scandal.

还发现AEFW的负责人持有DeAngeles公司的一部分股权，这显然是一个巨大的警示信号和利益冲突。

It was also discovered that the head of AEFW held ownership in one of DeAngeles' companies, which obviously was a massive red flag and conflict of interest.

这就是巴菲特开始行动的地方。

So here's where Buffett went to work.

他知道美国运通是一个值得信赖的品牌，尤其是在其借贷业务方面。

He knew that Amex was a trusted brand, especially in their lending business.

他还密切关注了事件的发展及其对美国运通股价的影响。

And he also followed the story that was unfolding and how it affected Amex's stock price.

因此，在丑闻发生八个月后，美国运通的股价下跌了45%。

So eight months after the scandal had occurred, Amex was trading at a 45% discount.

为了判断这场丑闻是否真正损害了美国运通的核心业务——旅行支票和信用卡，巴菲特和他聘请的一位熟人进行了实地调研。

To see if the scandal actually harmed Amex's core business and travelers checks and credit cards, Buffett and an acquaintance that he hired did their own boots on the ground research.

他们与银行柜员、银行职员、信用卡用户、酒店员工和餐厅员工交谈，以确定美国运通是否仍在被用于消费。

They spoke to bank tellers, bank officers, credit card users, hotel employees, and restaurant employees to figure out if Amex was still being used to buy things.

但结论非常明确。

But the conclusion was very straightforward.

美国运通的声誉依然完好无损。

Amex's reputation was still completely intact.

剩下的就是历史了，但这个故事中蕴含着许多宝贵的教训。

The rest is history, but there are many great lessons from the story.

首先，信任是脆弱的，但市场所感知的信任可能与企业实际与客户之间建立的信任并不一致。

First is that trust is fragile, but the trust that is perceived by the market may not align with the trust that actually exists between a business and its customers.

如果市场认为信任已经破裂且无法修复，那么股价很可能会受到惩罚。

If the market thinks trust is broken and irreparable, then the stock price is probably gonna be punished.

但正如巴菲特在这里所展示的，如果你能提出一个合理的反论，就能做出一项出色的投资。

But as Buffett showed here, if you can generate a valid counter argument, you can make an excellent investment.

第二个重要教训是，丑闻有时反而能让品牌变得更强大。

And the second big lesson is that scandals can sometimes make brands even stronger.

巴菲特在美国运通的经历让他认识到了强大品牌的力量。

Buffett's experience with Amex showed him the power of a strong brand.

他明白，一家企业可能会遭遇丑闻，但如果客户依然认为其产品有价值，并且多年来与公司建立的信任依然存在，那么这种纽带是很难被打破的。

He understood that a business might face a scandal, but if its customers still find value in the product and the trust built with the company over many years, it's really tough to break that bond.

第三个教训是，你必须对你合作的人进行尽职调查。

And the third lesson is that you must do due diligence on the people that you do business with.

德安赫莱斯可能享有一些不公平的优势，因为许多人相信他与有组织犯罪有联系。

DeAngeles may have had some unfair advantages as there were many people who believed he had ties to organized crime.

在这种情况下，他可能得到了那些明知他会违法的人的资金支持。

In that case, he may have been funded by people who knew that he was going to break the law.

但AEFW内部的某个人本可以查看德安赫莱斯那长长的违规记录，并轻易得出结论：他不是一个值得合作的人。

But someone inside AEFW could have looked at DeAngeles' laundry list of infractions and easily concluded that he was not a person to do business with.

如果你在投资私营或上市公司，花些时间去了解领导该企业或其他关键人物的过往背景。

If you're investing in private or public businesses, spend some time trying to learn about the past of the person leading the business or other key people involved in the business.

而最后也是最重要的教训是，贪婪会让我们采取危险的捷径。

And the final and most important lesson here is simply that greed can cause us to take risky shortcuts.

负责AEFW的唐纳德·米勒，要么知道德安赫莱斯的人品缺陷却选择视而不见，要么决定不去进行必要的尽职调查以确认德安赫莱斯不适合成为商业伙伴。

Donald Miller, who headed AEFW, either knew about DeAngeles' character flaws and chose to overlook them, or he decided not to conduct DD necessary to determine that DeAngeles wouldn't make a good business partner.

无论如何，米勒为了给美国运通创造利润，把德安赫莱斯当作自己继续留任的跳板。

Either way, Miller, who was required to generate profits for Amex, saw DeAngeles as his ticket to continued employment.

那么，当你把人工智能热潮和SPAC结合起来时，会得到什么？

Now, what do get here when you mix an AI craze with a SPAC?

你可能会得到像AI基础设施收购这样的企业，这是一个旨在推动人工智能和机器学习能力的SPAC。

You might be a business like AI infrastructure acquisition, a SPAC created to advance artificial intelligence and machine learning capabilities.

所以，SPAC是一种特殊目的收购公司。

So a SPAC is a special purpose acquisition company.

基本上，你可以购买一个SPAC的股票，但你得到的只是承诺在一定期限内（通常是十八到二十四个月）收购某家公司的承诺。

Basically, you can buy a ticker of a SPAC, but all you're getting is a promise to buy a business within a certain time limit, usually eighteen to twenty four months.

最早的SPAC之一就是我们今天已经讨论过的南海公司。

Now, of the earliest SPACs was a business that we've already discussed today, the South Sea Company.

还记得我提到过，这家企业实际上并不是一家运营中的公司，因为它没有收入。

Remember I mentioned that this business wasn't really an operating business as it had no revenue.

你本质上是在购买一家公司，这家公司拥有在未来某个时候实现某种叙事的权利。

You were basically buying a company that owned the rights to fulfill some sort of narrative at some point in the future.

由于其他人观察到了南海公司的炒作，它吸引了大量模仿者。

And because other people observed the hype of the South Sea Company, it attracted many, many cloners.

在南海公司泡沫期间，几乎有200家股份公司成立。

Nearly 200 joint stock companies were formed around the same time as the South Sea company bubble.

这些公司最初涉足保险、渔业和金融等行业。

These companies were initially in industries like, you know, insurance, fisheries, and finance.

但当它们看到市场成功推高股价后，第二波公司涌现出来，这些公司涉及的行业更加可疑，比如服务和发明。

But as they saw the market successfully propping up prices, there was the second wave of companies that came that had much more dubious industries related to things such as, you know, services and inventions.

这些公司声称能做各种事情，比如改善煤炭贸易、销售大规模殡葬用品，甚至典当行。

These were businesses that purport to do things like improve coal trading, sell large scale funeral furnishings, or even pawnbrokers.

有一家公司拥有耐热涂料的专利，另一家公司则制造刀剑。

One company carried a patent on heat resistant paint, another manufactured swords.

另一家著名的公司本打算将新鲜鱼类从渔船运送到鱼市，但鱼很少能活着到达市场。

Another notable company was meant to carry fresh fish from a boat into the fish market, but the fish rarely made it to the market alive.

由于许多这些公司纯粹是虚构的，1720年的投资者在持有这些股票后遭受了巨大损失，尤其是当人们发现这些公司背后根本没有实际运营的业务时。

Now since many of these businesses were just pure fiction, investors back in 1720 were very, very hurt by owning their stock, especially once it was discovered that there was no functional operating business behind them.

这与2020年和2021年许多投资者参与的SPAC情况类似。

It's similar to many of the SPACs and investors took part in in 2020 and 2021.

他们投资了一个想法，当这个想法失败时，投资者就成了接盘的人。

They bought into an idea, and when it didn't pan out, the investors were the ones holding the bag.

一个投资者被严重欺骗的故事，详细记录在查尔斯·麦凯的著作《大众幻觉与群体疯狂》中。

One story of investors getting especially taken advantage of was outlined in the great book, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds by Charles McKay.

在麦凯讲述的这个故事里，有一家公司被称为‘从事并推进一项巨大利益的公司’，但没人知道它到底做什么。

So in this story that McKay covers, there's this business that he says is considered, quote, a company for carrying on and undertaking a great advantage, but nobody knows what it is.

这听起来就像一个SPAC。

Sounds like a SPAC to me.

该公司的招股说明书称，计划通过以每股100英镑的价格出售5000股来筹集50万英镑。

The company's prospectus stated that it was seeking to raise £500,000 by selling selling 5,000 shares at a £100 each.

现在，疯狂的部分开始了。

Now here's where the craziness starts.

因此，这位匿名发起人承诺，只要持有股票，每年就能获得100英镑的回报。

So the unnamed promoter promised that for each year that the shares were owned, the subscriber would receive a £100 per year.

也就是说，他承诺一年内就能回本。

Meaning, he was promising a one year payback time.

推广者承诺在项目结束后一个月内公布具体实施细节。

The promoter promised details about how he would do this within a month after it closed.

prospectus发布后的第二天早上，推广者开门时，发现一群潜在投资者正等着把钱交给他。

The morning after the prospectus was released, the promoter opened his office to a crowd of potential investors waiting to just give him their money.

仅在一天之内，他就收集到了2000英镑，相当于今天的200万美元。

In only one day, he ended up collecting £2,000, which was about $2,000,000 today.

他立刻带着所有钱离开了国家，从此杳无音讯。

He immediately left the country with all the money never to be heard of or seen again.

虽然这听起来像是一个完全虚构的故事，但麦凯写道：‘如果有数十位可信证人证实了这些事实，那么任何人竟会被这样一个项目欺骗，简直难以置信。’

Now while this seems like a completely made up story, McKay wrote, were not the facts stated by scores of credible witnesses, it would be impossible to believe that any person could have been duped by such a project.

但让我们再回顾一下麦凯的这句话。

But let's revisit that McKay quote again.

一家从事并承担巨大利益的公司，但没人知道它究竟是做什么的。

A company for carrying on and undertaking a great advantage, but nobody to know what it is.

理解这句话背后的含义至关重要。

It's vital to understand the meaning behind this.

SPAC 确实纯粹是投机。

A SPAC really is pure speculation.

在现代，投资者可能会将 SPAC 视为一种对骑师的押注。

In modern times, investors might invest into a SPAC as a form of maybe betting on a jockey.

也许你非常敬重某位投资者，认为他是一位极其出色、极具天赋的资本配置者。

Perhaps there's some sort of investor that you highly respect, who you think is a really, really good and talented capital allocator.

让我们设想一个假设的世界，其中沃伦·巴菲特重新焕发活力，想要收购另一家公司，金额高达20亿美元，但不通过伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司。

So let's imagine a hypothetical world where Warren Buffett, you know, gets a second wind and wants to purchase another company for $2,000,000,000 and just not include Berkshire Hathaway.

我知道这个例子不太好，因为这种事情发生的可能性几乎为零，但请先容我继续说下去。

I know bad example as the chances of that happening are probably close to zero, but just bear with me.

所以，如果像巴菲特这样的人要做这样的事，我猜他会遭到远超需求的认购，因为人们相信巴菲特很可能会找到一个极其出色的投资项目。

So if someone like Buffett were to do something like that, my guess is that he would be drastically oversubscribed because people know Warren would probably find it an insanely good business to invest in.

而且人们显然信任他能做得非常出色。

And people obviously trust him to do a really, really good job.

但像巴菲特这样的人永远不会这么做，因为这与他的信念背道而驰。

But someone like Warren would never do this because it's antithetical to what he believes in.

他想成为这些投资者的合伙人，而SPAC在SPAC和股东之间制造了不对称性。

He wants to be a partner with these investors, and SPACs create asymmetry between the SPAC and the shareholder.

例如，SPAC创建者通常能以极低的价格获得高达20%的流通股份。

For instance, the SPAC creator gets access to a large percentage, usually 20% of the float at drastically reduced prices.

那么，为什么SPAC创建者应该能以折扣价购买股份呢？

So why exactly should the SPAC creator get to buy shares at reduced prices?

这难道不会极大地激励他们承担更大的风险吗？

Doesn't this really incentivize them to take larger amounts of risk?

如果SPAC与另一家公司合并，而该公司失败了，投资者就会血本无归。

And in the case that the SPAC merges with another company and that company fails, then investors lose all their money.

但SPAC创建者可能仍能通过他们以折扣价获得的股份获利退出。

And the SPAC creators may still be able to exit with a profit due to the discounted shares that they received.

所以，无论你是在看1720年还是2021年，故事都是一样的。

So whether you're looking at 1720 or 2021, the story is the same.

在市场狂热的时期，会有大量人涌入市场，承诺让你致富。

During times when the market is euphoric, scores of people will come into the markets with promises to make you rich.

但事实上，他们主要关注的是以你的损失为代价让自己致富，这就是为什么我个人从未在SPAC上花超过几分钟的时间投资。

But in reality, they are mostly focused on just making themselves rich at your expense, which is why I personally have never invested more than a few minutes into SPACs.

而我花的那点时间，纯粹只是为了满足自己的好奇心。

And the time that I have was purely just to satiate my own curiosity.

如果我非常信任某个人能做出好的投资，我可能会等到SPAC合并完成后再判断它是否是一个好的投资。

If there were someone I highly trusted to invest well, I would probably just wait for the SPACs merger to be consummated and find out at that point whether it's a good investment or not.

如果这不是一个让我感兴趣的投資，那我就干脆不买。

If it's not an investment that I would find interesting, then I simply don't buy it.

这对我财富没有任何影响。

And it makes no difference to my wealth.

如果这是一个我觉得有趣的业务，那当然，我可能会以高于参与SPAC的价格购买它。

And if it's a business that I do find interesting, well, then yes, I'll probably buy it at a premium to if I'd taken part in that SPAC.

但我仍然愿意为此支付溢价，因为我确信这个业务是我真正能理解的，并且有很好的机会为股东创造价值。

But still, I'm willing to pay up for that certainty that the business is something that I can actually understand and will have a good chance of creating shareholder value.

特雷，我们短暂休息一下，听听今天赞助商的消息。

Trey Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors.

特雷，这不是你的错觉。

Trey No, it's not your imagination.

风险和监管正在加剧，客户现在要求提供安全证明才能开展业务。

Risk and regulation are ramping up and customers now expect proof of security just to do business.

这就是为什么Vanta是一个变革者。

That's why Vanta is a game changer.

Vanta自动化你的合规流程，将合规、风险和客户信任整合到一个由AI驱动的平台上。

Vanta automates your compliance process and brings compliance, risk, and customer trust together on one AI powered platform.

无论你是为SOC 2做准备，还是在运行企业GRC项目，Vanta都能确保你的安全并推动交易顺利进行。

So whether you're prepping for a SOC two or running an enterprise GRC program, Vanta keeps you secure and keeps your deals moving.

像Ramp和Ryder这样的公司使用Vanta后，审计时间减少了82%。

Companies like Ramp and Ryder spend 82% less time on audits with Vanta.

这不仅仅是更快的合规，更是为增长腾出了更多时间。

That's not just faster compliance, it's more time for growth.

我很喜欢Vanta让你轻松掌控合规，而不会让合规占据你整个工作流程。

I love how Vanta makes it easy to stay on top of your compliance without it taking over your entire workflow.

它只是简化了一件通常远比必要更痛苦的事情。

It just simplifies something that's usually way more painful than it needs to be.

前往 vanta.com/billionaires 开始使用。

Get started at vanta dot com slash billionaires.

就是 vanta.com/billionaires。

That's vanta.com/billionaires.

开始一件事不仅困难，而且确实有点吓人。

Starting something new isn't just hard, it's honestly kind of terrifying.

我仍然记得在我真正决定开始做播客之前的那些时刻。

I still remember those moments right before I really committed to podcasting.

夜里躺在床上想着，如果没人听怎么办？

Lying awake at night thinking, what if no one listens?

如果这件事彻底失败了怎么办？

What if this completely flops?

或者如果我只是纯粹在浪费时间呢？

Or what if I'm just straight up wasting my time?

尽管克服这种疑虑并不容易，但迈出这一步最终成了我做过的最好的决定之一。

And even though pushing past that doubt was not easy, making the leap ended up being one of the best decisions I've ever made.

我要说的是，当你拥有合适的工具时，事情会容易很多。

And I'll say this, it helps a lot when you have the right tools on your side.

这就是Shopify发挥作用的地方。

And that's where Shopify comes in.

Shopify是数百万企业的电商平台，支撑着美国约10%的电子商务，从家喻户晓的大品牌到刚刚起步的新锐品牌都在使用。

Shopify is the commerce platform behind millions of businesses and about 10% of all e commerce in The US, from massive household names to brands just getting started.

如果你曾经想过：‘如果我不知道怎么建店怎么办？’

If you've ever thought, What if I don't know how to build a store?

Shopify提供了数百个精美且即用的模板，完美契合你的品牌风格，让建店变得轻而易举。

Shopify makes it easy with hundreds of beautiful, ready to use templates that actually match your brand.

或者，如果我没时间做所有事情怎么办？

Or what if I don't have time to do everything?

Shopify内置的AI工具能帮你撰写产品描述、标题，甚至优化产品图片。

Shopify's built in AI tools help write product descriptions, headlines, and even enhance your product photos.

是时候用Shopify将这些‘如果’变为现实了。

It's time to turn those what ifs into with Shopify today.

今天就前往shopify.com/wsb，注册每月1美元的试用。

Sign up for your $1 per month trial today at shopify.com/wsb.

前往shopify.com/wsb。

Go to shopify.com/wsb.

就是shopify.com/wsb。

That's shopify.com/wsb.

亿万富翁投资者通常不会把资金存入高收益储蓄账户。

Billion dollar investors don't typically park their cash in high yield savings accounts.

相反，他们常常采用机构投资者常用的被动收入策略——私人信贷。

Instead, they often use one of the premier passive income strategies for institutional investors, private credit.

如今，得益于Fundrise收益基金，这一被动收入策略已向所有规模的投资者开放，该基金已吸引超过6亿美元投资，派息率达7.97%。

Now the same passive income strategy is available to investors of all sizes, thanks to the Fundrise Income Fund, which has more than $600,000,000 invested and a 7.97% distribution rate.

随着传统储蓄利率下滑，私人信贷在近几年成长为万亿美元资产类别也就不足为奇了。

With traditional savings yields falling, it's no wonder private credit has grown to be a trillion dollar asset class in the last few years.

立即访问 fundrise.com/wsb，只需几分钟即可投资 Fundrise 收入基金。

Visit fundrise.com/wsb to invest in the Fundrise Income Fund in just minutes.

该基金在 2025 年的总回报率为 8%，自成立以来的平均年总回报率为 7.8%。

The fund's total return in 2025 was 8% and the average annual total return since inception is 7.8%.

过往业绩并不预示未来表现。

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

截至 2025 年 1 月 20 日 12:30 的当前分配率。

Current distribution rate as of twelvethirty onetwenty twenty five.

投资前请仔细阅读投资材料，包括投资目标、风险、费用和开支。

Carefully consider the investment material before investing, including objectives, risks, charges, and expenses.

更多相关信息请参阅 fundrise.com/income 上的收入基金招募说明书。

This and other information can be found in the income funds prospectus at fundrise.com/income.

这是一则付费广告。

This is a paid advertisement.

好了，我们继续节目。

All right, back to the show.

在南海泡沫破裂几十年后，一种更加奇特的金融衍生品被创造出来，用于对赌未来。

Now, a few decades after the South Sea bubble burst, an even stranger financial derivative was created to gamble on the future.

而这种衍生品实际上并不涉及高度投机的公司，而是与儿童有关。

And it actually didn't involve highly speculative companies, but children.

让娜·皮塞特在18世纪70年代末年仅四岁时不幸去世。

Jeanne Pictet tragically died at the age of four back in the late seventeen seventies.

当她的贵族家族为她的离世哀悼时，由路易十四统治的法国王室却在暗自欣喜，因为她的死亡为他们节省了大笔资金。

And while her aristocratic family mourned her passing, the French monarchy ruled by King Louis XIV was secretly rejoicing because her death saved them bundles of money.

法国在17世纪和18世纪的大部分时间里都面临融资难题。

France had a financing problem for most of the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries.

他们曾七次违约，所需资金主要用于战争开支。

They defaulted seven separate times, and the money that they needed was spent on wars.

导致违约的触发因素遵循着相似的路径。

The trigger for the default followed a pretty similar path.

战争结束后，法国会将高利率的短期债务转换为低利率的长期债务。

The war ends, then France would then convert its high interest short term debt into low interest long term debt.

然后他们通过重铸货币或我们今天所说的印钞来贬值货币。

Then they debase their currency through recoinage or what we today refer to as money printing.

问题是通过征税等措施筹集额外资金，这引发了王室和地方政府都希望避免的各种问题。

The problem was raising additional funds through measures like taxes, which created all sorts of issues that the monarchy and regional governments preferred to avoid.

因此，一种奇特、聪明但最终危险的金融工具被创造出来。

As a result, a weird, brilliant, and ultimately dangerous financial instrument was created.

它被称为廷内特（Tontine）。

It was called the Tontine.

你可能从比尔·阿克曼失败的SPAC公司——珀欣广场廷内特控股（Pershing Square Tontine Holdings）中听说过这个词。

So you may recognize that word from Bill Ackman's failed SPAC named Pershing Square Tontine Holdings.

廷内特的核心非常简单。

Tontines at its core were very simple.

它是一种保险合同，为购买者或年金领取者提供终身收入。

They're an insurance contract that provides the purchaser or annuitant with lifetime income.

听起来类似于年金，但有一个关键区别。

It sounds similar to an annuity, but with a twist.

所以，廷蒂恩式年金带有很强的赌博成分。

So there's a very large gambling element to a tontine.

对于终身年金来说，支付金额是固定的。

So for a life annuity, the payments are fixed.

而在廷蒂恩中，随着你年龄增长，支付金额实际上会增加。

In a tontine, they actually increase in size as you get older.

这是因为你的资金会与其他投资者的资金 pooled 到廷蒂恩中。

The reason for this was that your money was pooled with other investors into the tontine.

当某位投资者去世后，其支付份额会重新分配给幸存的投资者。

And upon passing, their payments will be redistributed to the surviving investors.

所以你活得越久，你的支付金额就越高。

So the longer you lived, the higher your payments would be.

一旦最后一位幸存者去世，所有投资者都不会再获得本金返还。

And once the last survivor passed away, there was no principal repaid to any of the investors.

政府非常喜欢这种安排。

The government loved them.

他们一次性拿到了现金，而且不需要像债券那样偿还本金。

They got cash upfront and quickly and didn't need to repay the principal unlike a bond.

投资者非常喜欢它们，因为他们可以本质上拿自己的寿命来赌博，以获取未来的收入。

The investors loved them because they could essentially gamble the duration of their lives to generate future income.

这种终身年金几乎就像一个早期的SPAC，因为你投资的是结果非常不确定的东西。

The tontine was almost like a proto SPAC because you invest in something with very, very uncertain outcomes.

但在1770年，终身年金最终被废除并转换为终身年金。

But in 1770, tontines ended up actually being nullified and converted to life annuities.

当时的情况是，王室政府声称终身年金成本过高，已无法继续发行。

So what happened was the Royal government claimed that tonteens were very costly and could just no longer be issued.

正是在这一时期，瑞士人提出了些绝妙的点子，利用终身年金的转换来获利。

This is where the Swiss came in with some brilliant ideas to capitalize on the conversion of tonteens.

你瞧，当终身年金在当时被转换为终身年金时，终身年金的持有人可以为新的终身年金指定一名受益人。

You see, when a tontine was converted to a life annuity at this time, the holders of the tontine could appoint a new nominee for the life annuity.

要最大化年金的价值，最好的办法是提名一个年轻人，因为他们显然还有更多年头可以领取年金。

And the best way to maximize the value of the annuity was to nominate someone young as they're obviously going to have the most years ahead of them to collect those annuity payments.

因此，一位名叫杰克·博蒙特的瑞士银行家决定收购大量这些作废的终身年金，然后利用转换为终身年金后可指定新受益人的权利。

So a Swiss banker named Jake Beaumont decided that he'd buy up a number of these nullified tontines, then take advantage of the ability to appoint new nominees for the converted life annuity.

为了降低风险，他引入了其他投资者，将这些终身年金转化为一种证券化形式。

To reduce risk, he brought in other investors and essentially turned these life annuities into a form of securitization.

由于他拥有其他投资者且资金池规模庞大，这也创造了流动性，使投资者能够自由进出这项投资。

Since he had other investors and the pool was large, it also created liquidity, allowing investors to get in and out of the investment.

博蒙特还对寿命进行了深入研究。

Beaumont also did his homework on lifespans.

女性的平均寿命通常比男性更长。

Women on average live longer than men.

因此，他决定受益人应主要为女性，但他不能只选择新生儿，因为婴儿死亡率很高。

So he decided that nominees should mostly be female, but she couldn't just go with newborns because infant mortality rates were high.

天花肆虐，度过婴儿期后，生存几率要高得多。

Smallpox was rampant, and your chances of living were much higher past the infant years.

瑞士银行家们找到的最佳年龄段是四到七岁、已度过天花和其他健康风险的女童。

The sweet spot that the Swiss bankers came up with was girls aged between four and seven who had already survived smallpox and other health issues.

但他们并不只是想要任何家庭中符合这些条件的女孩。

But they didn't just want girls who fit those criteria from any old family.

不。

No.

他们还希望这些女孩能享受到最好的医疗保健。

They wanted the ones who had access to the best possible health care as well.

因此，被提名者都来自富裕家庭，这些家庭有能力负担最优秀的医生和治疗。

So the nominees came from wealthy families who could afford the best possible doctors and treatment.

这些女孩被称为‘不朽者’。

These girls were known as the immortals.

所以当简·皮什特四岁时去世，政府得以节省了数十笔原本难以支付的年金款项。

So when Jian Pichte passed away at four years old, the government was able to save decades of annuity payments that it would have had a hard time servicing.

但政府对资金的需求仍然很高。

But the need for government funding was still high.

到了十八世纪末，随着政府持续需要资金，而投资者对未来的收入流产生兴趣，年金规则发生了变化。

At the end of the eighteenth century, as the government continued to need money and investors became interested in future income streams, the life annuity rules changed.

因此，要领取年金，你必须证明被提名者还活着。

So to collect the annuity, you had to prove that the nominee was alive.

这证明非常不便。

This proved pretty inconvenient.

于是，人们想出了一个变通办法，允许你随意提名任何人作为被提名者。

So there was a workaround that was created, which allowed you to just nominate anyone as your nominee.

而一个非常好的选择就是直接提名一位名人。

And a really good option was to just nominate a famous person.

这样一来，每个人都知道这个人要么已经去世，要么还活着。

That way everyone would know that that person was not alive or alive.

当时，名人指的是法国王室成员。

And so at this time, famous people were people in the French royal family.

被提名者包括路易十四、他的妻子玛丽·安托瓦内特以及其他王室成员。

Nominees included people such as King Louis the fourteenth, his wife, Mary Antoinette, and other family members.

但随后法国大革命爆发了。

But then the French revolution happened.

国王和他的家人同样被断头台处决。

The king and his family met the same fate beheaded by the guillotine.

随着这一事件，年金支付立即消失了。

And with that, the annuity payments promptly disappeared.

这个故事提醒我们，人类并没有随着时间变得更聪明。

This whole story reminds us that humans don't really get smarter with time.

他们只是找到了新的赌博方式。

They just find new ways to gamble.

如今，每个听众可能都听说过或参与过‘带孩子上班日’。

Now, everybody listening today has probably heard or taken part in Take Your Kid to Work Day.

这是一种无害的传统，就是带孩子去了解妈妈或爸爸每天上班是做什么的。

It's the harmless tradition of taking your kid with you to see what mommy or daddy does every day at work.

这通常完全无害，除非你身处三万三千英尺高空的飞机驾驶舱里。

And it tends to be completely harmless unless you're 33,000 feet in the air in an airplane cockpit.

1994年3月22日，一名飞行员在苏联航空593号航班上就遇到了这种情况。

This was a situation that a pilot found himself in on Aeroflot flight five ninety three on 03/22/1994.

于是，一名备用飞行员名叫雅罗斯拉夫·库德林斯基，带着他的两个孩子进入驾驶舱，分别是他12岁的女儿亚娜和16岁的儿子埃尔达尔。

So one of the backup pilots named Yaroslav Kudrinsky brought his two children up into the cockpit, his 12 year old daughter, Yana, and his 16 year old son, Eldar.

库德林斯基首先让他的女儿亚娜操控飞机，飞行了一会儿。

Kudrinsky first allowed his daughter, Yana, to take control of the plane and fly it for a bit.

亚娜驾驶飞机几分钟，稍微向右偏移，又稍微向左偏移。

Yana flew the aircraft for a few minutes, moving a little bit to the right and a little bit to the left.

库德林斯基当时正利用飞机的自动驾驶功能。

Kudrinsky was taking advantage of the plane's autopilot feature.

因此，尽管亚娜感觉自己在驾驶飞机，但自动驾驶系统仍温柔地将她引导至正确方向。

So even though Yana felt like she was flying the plane, the autopilot gently guided her in the right direction.

接下来轮到埃尔达尔。

Next up was Eldar.

埃尔达尔是个16岁的男孩，体型显然比亚娜大一些。

Eldar, being a 16 year old boy, was obviously a little bit bigger than Yana.

当他接管控制时，飞机向左偏航。

As he took control, he veered left.

但当自动驾驶仪试图让他重新向右修正航向时，埃达却强行覆盖了自动驾驶仪的控制。

But as the autopilot tried to get him to veer back to the right to maintain direction, Eldar actually overrode the autopilot by force.

不知出于什么原因，飞机的自动驾驶仪被设置为：当飞机倾斜角度达到45度时，自动驾驶仪就会自动解除。

The plane's autopilot was set up for whatever reason so that if the aircraft reached a 45 degree angle, the autopilot would disengage.

这样设计是为了让飞机能够在机场上空盘旋，等待跑道空闲以便降落。

So this allowed a plane to enter, you know, things like a holding pattern above an airport while waiting for a runway to become available for landing.

埃达最终将飞机操纵到了50度的倾斜角，飞机开始下降。

Eldar ended up flying the aircraft into a 50 degree angle and the plane began to descend.

由于飞机下降速度过快，机舱内几乎无法移动，导致埃达无法将控制权交还给真正的飞行员。

Because they were moving down so quickly, it made it nearly impossible to move inside the cockpit so that Eldar could turn the controls over to one of the actual pilots.

随着飞机下降，机舱陷入一片混乱，飞行员们竭尽全力试图引导埃达转动操纵杆以稳定飞机。

As the plane descended and the cockpit turned into pure chaos, the pilots tried their hardest to try to guide Eldar into turning the wheel to stabilize the plane.

但那时，飞机已经完全失控。

But at that point, the plane was uncontrollable.

他们向埃达大喊指令，但他却完全误解了。

They shouted commands to Eldar, but they were just misunderstood.

灯光和警报声纷纷响起。

Lights and sounds were going off.

飞机失速，迅速上升。

The aircraft was stalling and the plane was ascending very fast.

在1000英尺高度时，库德林斯基得以进入他儿子的座位，试图稳定飞机。

At 1,000 feet, Kudrinsky was able to get into his son's seat to try to stabilize the plane.

被找回的黑匣子录下了他当时说一切正常。

The black box that was picked up caught him saying everything is fine at this point.

几秒钟后，飞机撞上了库兹涅茨克阿拉套山脉，机上75人全部遇难。

A few seconds later, the plane crashed into the Kuznettsk Alatau Mountain Range, killing all 75 people on board.

如今，飞机的自动驾驶系统诞生于1912年，但其设计更注重简洁而非透明性。

Now autopilot for airplanes was created in 1912, but it was designed for simplicity rather than transparency.

在阿эрофлот空难中，并没有明确的指示表明自动驾驶已被手动覆盖。

In the Aeroflot disaster, there wasn't really a clear indication that the autopilot had been overridden.

如果你开过带有驾驶辅助系统的汽车，你就知道变道时的那种感觉。

If you've ever driven a car with driver assist, you know the feeling when you change lanes.

你知道，汽车可能会试图让你保持在车道内，但你只需不让方向盘维持当前车道，就能轻易地关闭自动驾驶功能。

You know, the car may attempt to keep you in your lane, but you can override the autopilot simply by not allowing the car's steering wheel to maintain your current lane.

所以当埃达尔向左偏移时，他无意中关闭了自动驾驶，从而引发了这场灾难。

So when Eldar veered left, he inadvertently disabled autopilot, which caused the entire disaster.

这是一个典型案例，说明如果我们过度信任硬件和软件，就可能做出非常糟糕的决定。

This is a case where if we trust our hardware and software too much, can we make very poor decisions.

那么，在投资中，自动驾驶是什么样子的呢？

So what does autopilot look like in investing?

在市场行情好的时候，人们很容易只依赖市场的表现，这会滋生自满情绪。

During good times, it's easy to rely on just how well the market is doing, which can create complacency.

你可能会密切关注所有持仓，并积极寻找潜在的风险点。

You may stay on top of all your positions and actively look for where things could maybe go wrong.

你不应该仅仅因为其他持仓和市场表现非常好，就继续留在一个糟糕的仓位里。

You don't want to stay in a bad position just because your other positions and the market are doing really, really well.

隐藏的风险仍然是风险。

Hidden risks are still risks.

你应该审视一下你的持仓，看看哪些因素可能让它们彻底崩溃。

You should take a look at your positions and determine what could really unravel them.

这些事件今天正在发生，而你只是没有足够关注吗？

Are those events happening today and you're just not paying close enough attention?

过度自信是非常危险的。

Overconfidence is incredibly dangerous.

80%的车祸发生在人们家附近10英里之内。

80% of car accidents happen within 10 miles of people's homes.

那些他们理论上比任何地方都更熟悉的地方。

Areas that theoretically they know better than anywhere else.

所以，你曾经驾驶过的区域始终需要你保持专注。

So areas that you have navigated before always require your attention.

一旦注意力转移，就可能造成灾难性后果。

The moment that that attention goes elsewhere can be catastrophic.

在投资中，你可能会因为过去几年市场一直上涨，就预期它还会继续上涨。

In investing, you can expect a market to continue going up just because that's what it's done for the past few years.

你需要为不同的结果制定计划和策略，以便在市场波动时保护自己。

You need to plan and strategize for different outcomes to protect yourself when the market churns.

这可能意味着创建各种情景，然后通过思想实验来 strategize，思考在现实情况下你会如何应对。

That might mean creating scenarios and then using thought experiments to strategize about what you'll do in light of reality.

这里的最后一点是，当事情出错时，要善用黑箱。

The final lesson here is that when things go wrong, just take advantage of the black box.

在投资领域，黑箱就是我们的大脑。

In the world of investing, the black box is our brain.

我们可以通过使用日记等工具实时记录思考过程，从而回顾以往的思路。

We can access our previous thinking by tracking it in real time using things like journals.

当你犯错时，回头审视你的思维过程，以及你为什么会那样想。

When you make a mistake, look back at your thinking process and why you thought that way.

虽然你永远无法完全消除所有错误，但你可以降低重复相同错误的可能性，这将在整个投资生涯中产生非常显著的积极影响。

While you'll never eliminate all mistakes, you can reduce the likelihood of repeating the same error, which will have a very significant positive effects through an investing lifetime.

所以最后一个故事讲的是陷入自动驾驶状态的危险。

So the last story was about the dangers of going on autopilot.

那些会悄然让你偏离目标的系统，以及你已经偏离太远却没有任何提醒的情况。

Systems that can quietly drift you away from your goal and the lack of notifications that you have drifted so far.

有时当你脱离自动驾驶状态时，缺乏提醒会让你偏离得太远，以至于完全失去控制。

And sometimes when you're off of autopilot, there's a lack of notifications and you drift just so far away that you lose all control.

通货膨胀也非常类似。

Inflation is very similar.

它就像是金融世界中的自动驾驶失效。

It's a financial world version of autopilot failure.

你每天几乎感受不到通货膨胀的力量，但某一天醒来，你原本信赖的、能帮你安全走向未来的美元，却已经突然转向了45度。

You don't really feel the power of inflation from day to day, but one day you wake up and the dollar that you trusted to help take you safely into the future has just rolled into a 45 degree turn.

因此，在18世纪70年代末，美国独立战争对美国人来说形势极其严峻。

So in the late seventeen seventies, the revolutionary war was going very, very badly for the Americans.

英军接连取得一系列重大胜利，海军则封锁了东海岸。

The British Army had a series of excellent victories and the Navy was blockading the East Coast.

士兵士气低落，寒冷刺骨，衣衫褴褛，忍饥挨饿，许多人亟需医疗救助。

Troop morale was low, they were freezing cold, poorly clothed, starving, and many were in need of medical attention.

因此，兵变是一个切实存在的威胁。

As a result, mutinies were a very real threat.

更糟糕的是，士兵们还有另一个担忧，这次远离了战场。

And to make matters even worse, the soldiers had another worry, this time further away from the battlefield.

他们用来支付这场战争的薪水正在失去价值。

And this was that money that they were being paid to fight this war was losing its value.

如果你以为通货膨胀是现代才有的现象，那就大错特错了。

If you think inflation is a modern phenomenon, you're dead wrong.

从购买力的角度来看，英国人并不是唯一的罪魁祸首。

From a buying power standpoint, the Brits weren't the only villain.

通货膨胀也是一个真正的威胁。

Inflation was a real threat as well.

只是它不拿枪射击罢了。

It just didn't shoot guns.

所以问题就在这里。

So here was the problem.

士兵们在恶劣的战场上作战，而他们领到的工资购买力急剧下降，导致他们的家人生活陷入困境。

The soldiers were out on the battlefield in deplorable conditions, and the money that they are being paid with was losing so much buying power that their families were having a lot of trouble.

食品价格飞涨，但士兵们的工资却没有相应增加。

Food prices were skyrocketing, but the soldiers weren't seeing a corresponding increase in their wages.

因此，在1776年，学者们估算通货膨胀率为14%，1777年为22%，1778年为30%。

So in 1776, scholars estimated inflation at 14%, in seventeen seventy seven twenty two percent, and in 1778 thirty percent.

到了1779年，整整四个营抱怨说，由于货币贬值，他们参与独立战争导致购买力损失了八分之七。

So in 1779, four entire battalions complained that due to the depreciating value of money, they were losing seven eighths of their purchasing power by taking part in the revolutionary war.

士兵流失是一个严重问题，许多人干脆逃兵去农场打工。

Losing soldiers was a real problem as many were just deserting to go work on farms.

于是，政府出台了一项法案，发明了一种原始的通货膨胀指数。

So the government came up with an act to invent a crude type of inflation index.

今天，我们使用消费者价格指数（CPI）。

Today, we use the consumer pricing index or CPI.

当时，他们仅依靠四种商品的价格来判断货币贬值的速度。

Back then, they used the prices of only four goods to determine how fast money was depreciating.

因此，他们使用的四种商品是玉米、牛肉、羊毛和皮革。

So the four goods they used were corn, beef, wool, and leather.

在1870年该法案通过时，他们考察了过去三年这四种商品价格的变化率。

In 1870, when the act was passed, they looked at the rate of change in price increases for just those four commodities over the last three years.

在这段时期内，这四种商品的价格实际上上涨了32.5倍。

And the price for the four goods had actually risen 32 and a half times over that period.

为了弥补通货膨胀的影响，军队推出了历史上第一种通货膨胀指数债券。

To make amends for inflation, the army came up with an inflation index bond, the first kind in its history.

因此，这种通货膨胀指数债券将在1781年至1784年间支付四笔带息款项。

So the inflation index bond would pay four interest bearing payments from 1781 to 1784.

这些款项本意是用于购买五蒲式耳玉米、68磅牛肉、10磅羊毛和16磅皮革。

Basically, sums were meant to cover five bushels of corn, 68 pounds of beef, 10 pounds of wool, and 16 pounds of leather.

这些商品当时价值约130英镑的现值货币。

These cost about £130 of current money.

如果这些商品的价格继续上涨，支付金额将随通货膨胀相应增加。

If these goods continue to inflate in price, the payment would increase with inflation.

因此，这缓解了士兵们的许多忧虑，因为他们知道明天不会比今天更糟。

So this eased many of the soldiers mind because they knew that tomorrow wouldn't be worse than it was today.

如今，消费者价格指数（CPI）每月根据80,000种不同商品和服务的价格计算。

So CPI today is calculated monthly based on the price of 80,000 different goods and services.

劳工统计局（BLS）负责估算这些数据。

The Bureau of Labor Statistics or BLS estimates these numbers.

BLS通过定期联系美国各地的商店来收集数据。

The BLS does this by regularly contacting stores across The US to collect data.

此外，还会向五万名居民发放额外的调查问卷。

An additional survey is also sent out to 50,000 residents as well.

现代消费的主要类别包括住房、交通、食品、娱乐、医疗、服装、教育以及其他商品和服务。

So the major categories of modern spending are housing, transportation, food, recreation, medical care, apparel, education, and other goods and services.

我们已经远远脱离了以玉米和皮革计量的时代。

We moved a long way from bushels of corn and sole leather.

自独立战争以来，通货膨胀就从未离开过美国。

And ever since the revolutionary war, inflation has never left The US.

以下是每个世纪美国的统计数据。

So here are The US stats for each century.

在18世纪，为0.6%。

In the seventeen hundreds, point 6%.

19世纪，为负0.2%。

Eighteen hundreds, negative point 2%.

20世纪，为3.2%。

Nineteen hundreds, 3.2%.

21世纪，为2.5%。

Two thousands, 2.5%.

但每个世纪都有其独特的故事，由于1913年美联储的成立，二十世纪和二十一世纪的通货膨胀率已经稳定了许多。

But each century has its own story, and inflation has stabilized a lot in the twentieth and twenty first century due to the formation of the Federal Reserve in 1913.

正如福雷斯特在书中指出的，适度的通货膨胀实际上是可管理的，也是货币政策的目标，因为相反的通货紧缩是更糟糕的结果。

As Forrester points out in his book, moderate inflation is actually manageable and is the goal of monetary policy because the opposite deflation is a much worse outcome.

在通货紧缩的环境中，消费者预期价格会下降，从而推迟购买决策，导致经济停滞。

In a deflationary environment, consumers expect prices to drop, which delays purchasing decisions and leads to economic stagnation.

日本自九十年代泡沫破裂以来，基本上就经历了这种情况。

Japan has gone through this basically since its bubble popped in the nineties.

如果利率已经为零，政府就无法再进一步降低物价。

If interest rates are at zero, there's nothing that the government can do to drop prices further.

但如果他们能维持在2%到3%的范围内，就像我们在新冠疫情以来所看到的那样，就会有更大的操作空间。

If they maintain a two to 3% range though, they have more wiggle room as we've seen here since COVID nineteen.

但无论如何，通货膨胀本质上是一种无声的税收，惩罚着储蓄者。

But no matter what, inflation is basically a silent tax that punishes savers.

如果你今天存了100美元，在3%的历史性现代通胀率下，十年后你的钱只值74美元。

If you save a $100 today, in ten years, a historic modern inflation rates of 3%, your money's only gonna be worth $74.

因此，既然我们知道现金是一种贬值的资产，那么对储蓄者来说，解决方案就显而易见了。

So if we know that cash is a depreciating asset, the solution becomes pretty obvious to savers.

不要把储蓄放在现金里。

Don't keep your savings in cash.

我认为我们的许多听众可能已经知道这一点，但如果你是新听众，并且把现金囤积在免税账户里，请明白这些现金并不是一个理想的持有资产。

I think many of our listeners probably know this, but if you're tuning in and have cash hoarded in tax sheltered accounts, please understand that that cash is not a good asset to hold onto.

现金看似中性，但实际上是一种净亏损。

Cash seems neutral, but it's a net negative.

你可以把现金想象成把冰块放在阳光下融化。

You can think of cash as kind of similar to, you know, leaving ice cubes melting in the sun.

就像士兵需要随通胀上涨的工资一样，你也需要让储蓄保留在增值资产中。

So just like the soldiers who needed wages that rose with inflation, you need to keep your savings and appreciating assets.

我选择的资产类别是股票，但还有许多其他选择。

My asset class of choice is stocks, but there's plenty of other choices out there.

债券、房地产、大宗商品、私营企业、加密货币，或其他与真实经济活动挂钩的资产。

Bonds, real estate, commodities, private businesses, cryptocurrencies, or other assets that are tied to real economic activity.

只要你拥有能够对抗通胀的资产，你就处于非常有利的位置。

As long as you have assets that fight inflation, you put yourself in a great position to win.

早在1779年独立战争期间，就有人预测过通胀。

Now, predicted inflation all the way back during the war for independence in 1779.

就像没人真正了解自新冠疫情以来通胀带来的全部影响一样。

Just like nobody knew really knew the full effects of inflation that we've had since COVID.

但在现代，真正的赢家是那些做好了准备的投资者。

But the winners in modern times are investors who prepared properly.

在构建你的投资组合时，确保你考虑了各种可能的结果。

When you construct your portfolio, make sure you're looking at a range of outcomes.

问问自己：你的投资组合是会被通胀损害，还是会从中受益？

Ask yourself, will your portfolio be damaged by inflation or will it thrive in it?

同样重要的是，要保持谦逊，不要依赖单一的叙事，因为如果你对这个故事判断错误，就会面临巨大的风险。

Along the same token, it's important to have the humility not to rely on a single narrative because then you put yourself at a large amount of risk if you're incorrect on that one story.

这里另一个重要的教训是，实际回报比名义回报更重要。

Another vital lesson here is that real returns matter more than nominal ones.

如果你获得5%的回报，但通胀是6%，那你实际上变穷了。

If you get a 5% return with 6% inflation, you're actually poor.

如果你获得3%的回报，而通胀只有1%，那你反而更富有了。

If you get a 3% return with 1% inflation, you're richer.

因此，你的目标基准每年都会发生变化。

So your goalposts will move on a yearly basis.

但如果你选择追求回报，比如中高个位数或更高的收益，无论发生什么，你最终都可能胜出。

But if you choose to earn returns and you know, the mid to high single digits or higher, you're probably going to end up coming out on top no matter what.

通货膨胀告诉我们，货币在悄然贬值。

Inflation teaches us that money quietly loses value.

虽然我们希望避免这种结果，但其他事件也会定期发生，导致我们以非平静的方式亏损。

And while that's an outcome we'd like to avoid, other events happen on a regular basis that can cause us to lose money and not in a quiet way.

有时市场 просто会暴跌。

Sometimes the market just simply plummets.

如果我问你想到这样的事件会联想到什么，你可能会提到大萧条。

If I ask you what events like this come to mind, you might mention something like the great depression.

但我想要谈论一个更糟糕的事件，它发生在1987年10月的两天内。

But I wanna talk about an event that's even worse, which happened over two days in October 1987.

我们从1987年10月19日星期一开始，这一天被称为黑色星期一。

We start on the Monday, 10/19/1987, the day known as Black Monday.

那天早些时候，美联储主席艾伦·格林斯潘正从华盛顿飞往达拉斯。

So earlier that morning, Fed chair Alan Greenspan is boarding a plane from DC to Dallas.

当时当然还没有互联网或手机。

At this time, there is no Internet, of course, or mobile phones.

所以如果你上了飞机，基本上在飞行期间就完全与外界隔绝了。

So if you got on a plane, you're basically completely insulated while on that plane from the outside world.

在格林斯潘登机前，道琼斯指数已经下跌了8%，是个非常糟糕的日子。

Before Greenspan had boarded, the Dow was already down 8%, a very bad day.

但当格林斯潘降落在达拉斯时，他震惊地发现，市场在当天暴跌了22.6%。

But when Greenspan landed in Dallas, he was horrified to see that the market had dropped 22.6% in that one day.

现在为了更好地理解为什么会发生这种情况，我们其实不需要追溯得太久。

Now to understand a little more about why this happened, we don't really need to go back too far.

1986年，市场表现良好，道琼斯指数收于1896点，全年上涨约23%。

In 1986, the market had done well and the Dow closed at 1,896, up about 23% on the year.

平均而言，该指数每天上涨约1.38点。

On average, the index gained about 1.38 per day.

到了1987年，也就是格林斯潘就任美联储主席的那一年，市场继续攀升至2722点。

By 1987, the year that Greenspan was sworn in as Fed chair, the market continued climbing to 2,722.

格林斯潘的首个举措之一是提高贴现率。

One of Greenspan's first moves was to raise the discount rate.

他认为通胀正在悄然上升，而这通常不是市场所希望的。

He felt that inflation was starting to creep up, and this is generally not what the market wants.

更糟糕的是，市场还预期由于一些轻微的地缘政治冲突，美元价值将在近期下跌。

And to make things even worse, the market was also expecting The US currency to drop in value in the near future due to some kind of minor geopolitical conflicts.

因此，在10月16日星期五，也就是黑色星期一的前一个周五，市场已经相当恐慌。

So on Friday, October 16, this is the Friday before Black Monday, the market was pretty scared.

当天市场实际下跌了4.6%。

The market was actually down 4.6% that day.

1926年10月19日，道琼斯指数如我所说，暴跌了22.6%。

On 10/19/1926, the Dow, like I said, collapsed 22.6%.

周一收盘后，全年所有的涨幅都被抹去，这对投资者来说是一个相当痛苦的结果。

The entire year's gain was wiped out after Monday's close, a pretty painful outcome for investors.

关于黑色星期一的有趣之处在于，对于它究竟为何发生，目前并没有一致的共识。

Now, the interesting thing about Black Monday was that there isn't really a consensus cause for why exactly it happened.

当时并没有像新冠疫情这样的重大事件吓坏市场，也不太可能对全美企业造成巨大影响。

There wasn't some large event like, you know, COVID that spooked the market and was likely to have a massive effect on businesses all across America.

一些被提及的原因包括计算机程序交易的兴起、投资组合保险、期货市场以及利率和通胀的上升。

A few reasons that have been kicked around were the rise in computerized program trading, portfolio insurance, futures markets, and rising rates and inflation.

但并没有，你知道的，一个单一的原因。

But there wasn't, you know, just one cause.

是多种因素共同作用导致了市场的重创，很难把所有责任都归咎于某一个因素。

It was a confluence of factors that happened that punished the market, and it's kind of impossible to blame them all on just one factor.

关于黑色星期一一个较少人知道的事实是，星期二，1987年10月20日发生了什么。

And the lesser known fact about Black Monday is what ended up happening on Tuesday, 10/20/1987.

因此，有人可能会说，这一天的痛苦要少得多，但发生的事件却更加戏剧性。

So one could argue that the pain was much less on this day, but the events were even more dramatic.

星期二，市场上流传着纽约证券交易所可能关闭的谣言。

So on Tuesday, there were actually rumors that the New York Stock Exchange might close.

历史上只有四次发生过这种情况：肯尼迪总统遇刺举行葬礼时、纽约发生大停电时，以及飓风格洛丽亚来袭时。

This had occurred only four times in history when JFK was assassinated for his funeral, when New York experienced an electrical blackout, and for hurricane Gloria.

这真是一个非常可怕的局面。

So it was a very scary proposition.

早上8点，信贷市场就开始收紧。

By 8AM, credit markets were tightening.

不仅专业经纪公司急于借款，大型证券公司也是如此，因为它们为了满足主要客户的抛售需求而增加了股票库存。

Not only were specialist firms rushing to borrow, but larger security firms were as well because they had grown their stock inventories by accommodating selling by major clients.

交易、借贷和政府证券都陷入困境。

Trading, borrowing, and government securities sweltered.

试图利用即将发生的并购套利的交易员被迫为借贷提供更多资本。

Arbitrageurs, who were trying to take advantage of pending takeovers, were forced to put up more capital on their borrowings.

银行不愿进行交易结算，担心自己可能收不到款项。

Banks were reluctant to settle trades, fearing they might not get paid.

意识到黑色星期一可能引发整个金融体系的崩溃，格林斯潘立即行动，试图缓解投资者的紧张情绪。

Now, sensing that Black Monday could trigger a collapse of the entire financial system, Greenspan got to work trying to ease investors' tensions.

他公开发表声明，称美联储将逆转紧缩政策。

He made a public statement that the Fed would reverse its tightening stance.

美联储还将充当流动性来源，试图降低利率。

The Fed would also act as a source of liquidity attempting to drive down interest rates.

市场最初有所反弹，但随后卖方再次占据主导。

The market initially jumped, but then sellers took over once again.

因此，在恐慌的中间，出现了一丝微小的转机。

So in the middle of the panic, a small spark emerged.

芝加哥商品交易所的罗纳德·卡什·马希曼注意到，主要市场指数或MMI期货的价格出现了巨大折价。

Ronald Cash Mahinman at the Chicago Board of Trade noticed that the price of major market indexes or MMI futures were trading at a massive discount.

中午12:38，一波突如其来的买盘涌入这些期货，仅五分钟内就将其从大幅折价转变为溢价。

At 12:38PM, a sudden wave of buying hit those futures, flipping them from a huge discount to a premium in just five minutes.

这一微小的转变促使套利交易者迅速入场，买入基础股票，从而将流动性重新注入系统。

And that tiny shift triggered arbitrage traders to rush in, buy the underlying stocks, and push liquidity back into the system.

这正是市场迫切需要的一剂强心针。

And it was a jolt of electricity that the market really needed.

一小时内，道琼斯指数上涨了近6%。

Within an hour, the Dow rallied by nearly 6%.

所以，在黑色星期一之后，有些人说这整个事件是一场阴谋。

So after Black Monday, some say the whole thing was a conspiracy.

末日论者认为，大型机构协调了抛售，而美联储的反应却太过平静。

Doomsayers say that bigger firms coordinated the selling and the Fed's reaction was just too quiet.

另一些人则认为这只是运气不好，但我们永远无法确定。

Others say that it was just unlucky timing, but we'll never know for sure.

崩盘可能来得很快，但复苏也可能同样迅速。

Crashes can happen fast, but recoveries can also be really fast.

到1989年6月，道琼斯指数就已经高于崩盘前的水平。

The Dow was higher than before the crash by June 1989.

所以，如果你在这些事件中恐慌性抛售，很可能就会错失大部分的复苏行情。

So if you panic sell on these types of events, chances are you're gonna miss a lot of the recovery.

最大的跌幅之后，往往伴随着最大的反弹。

The biggest drawdowns are often followed by the biggest updates.

你永远无法预知这些日子究竟会在何时发生。

You just never know when those days will actually happen.