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你知道，现在的估值水平简直是疯狂到了极点。
These are, you know, completely insanely, valuation levels we have right now.
我们看到了纳斯达克45%的涨幅。
We saw a 45% rally in Nasdaq.
七周内涨了45%。
45% in seven weeks.
然后我们看到，实际上在两三周内，它几乎跌了40%。
And then we saw it actually in two to three weeks, it's just dropped 40% almost.
它开始下跌只是时间问题。
It's just a matter of time before it starts rumbling down.
你好，欢迎来到Wealthion。
Hello, welcome to Wealthion.
我是Maggie Lake。
I'm Maggie Lake.
今天和我一起讨论全球市场的是Henrik Zeberg，他是Swissblock的宏观策略师，也是The Zeberg Letter的创始人。
Joining me today to discuss global markets is Henrik Zeberg, macro strategist at Swissblock and founder of The Zeberg Letter.
嗨，亨里克。
Hi, Henrik.
很高兴再次见到你。
It's great to see you again.
也很高兴见到你，玛吉。
Great to see you, Maggie.
每次我们聊天，我都觉得最近总是以“发生了太多事”开头，确实如此。
Every time we talk, I always feel like these days I start out by saying there's so much going on, and there really is.
我是说，市场真的在剧烈波动。
I mean, the markets are really moving.
所以有很多话题要聊。
So there's a lot to get through.
热烈欢迎所有听众。
A warm welcome to everyone listening.
如果你对我们所处的这个动荡时期有任何疑问，或者想对你的投资组合进行压力测试，你可以免费预约Wealthion网络中的一位顾问进行咨询。
If you have any questions about this volatile time that we are in or would like to stress test your portfolio, you can get a free review with one of the advisors in the Wealthion network.
只要访问我们的网站 wealthion.com 就可以了。
Just go to our website at wealthion.com.
那么，亨里克，我们今天谈话的时候，油价又飙升了，这加剧了那些似乎正在搅动市场的通胀担忧。
So, Henrik, we have as we talk today, we have oil prices spiking again, which is adding to these inflation concerns that seem to be roiling markets.
我知道你在分析全球经济形势方面做了很多自己独特的研究，你的看法是什么？
What's your I know you do a lot of your own bespoke work on on trying to figure out what's happening with the global economy.
你的宏观导航框架目前对增长和通胀有什么判断？
What is your macro navigation framework telling you about growth and inflation at this point?
嗯，这总是很难说，因为一方面有那些似乎就在我们眼前、大家都看得到的东西，另一方面还有底下真正的引擎。
Well, this is always where it's difficult because it's there is what seems to be right in front of us and what everybody seems to see, and then there is the real engine down beneath.
如果我们先看看人们怎么说、我们看到了什么，那么我们可以看到通胀显然还是居高不下，而且我们也看到了一些生产者价格指数的数据。
And if we, you know, if we take first what people are saying and what we see, well, we can see inflation apparently, you know, stubborn stubbornly high, or we also saw some PPI numbers here coming out.
而且，你知道，在这个周期阶段，我们总会看到很多关于通胀粘性、这次情况不同、即使美联储似乎有点失去对局势的控制、债券市场要崩盘等等的说法。
And, you know, we will see that, as always, in this part of the cycle, that there will be a lot of narrative about how inflation is sticky, how it's that it's you know, this time is different and it's not going to come down even though the Fed and the Fed is kind of losing its you know, the control of the situation and the bond market is blowing up and all these things.
这些我们以前都见过。
We've just seen this before.
而且我们总是看到，当周期进入尾声阶段时，通胀会因为各种原因而持续走高，因为派对已经开了太久了。
And what we see always is that when we come to the phase, the late phase of the cycle, we will have that inflation is pushing through for various reasons, because that's where the party has been going on for such a long time.
人工智能热潮和其他因素带来了巨大的资本需求。
We have had such tremendous demand for capital going on with the AI boom and everything else.
所以，可以说，正是这些因素在推动整个系统。
So all this is actually what is pushing the system, so to speak.
但在表面之下，是我所说的实体经济。
But down beneath, and that's where we have what I call the real economy.
那里有消费者。
That is where we have the consumer.
在美国，有70%的人没人提及。
We have the 70% that nobody speaks about in The U.
那里的消费者，而且这可能也关系到欧洲和其他地方的情况。
S, the consumers there, and it's also probably relevant for what happens in Europe and elsewhere.
但美国——
But The U.
美国。
S.
是这里的主要引擎。
Is the big engine here.
我们可以看到，美国的房地产市场。
And what we can see there is that the housing market in The U.
美国。
S.
消费端依然冻得结结实实的。
Is still frozen solid.
而且我再说一句可能有人不爱听的话，劳动力市场其实已经近乎自由落体了。
And we can also see that even though, and now I am saying something that people might might disagree with, that the labor market is in almost a free fall.
但这跟周五公布的那份非农就业数据看起来不太一样。
That is not what we saw with the non found payrolls on on Friday.
我心里有数。
I know that.
但如果我们再深入看一下，就会发现明显有些不对劲。
But but if we looked a little deeper, then it's it's quite clear that something's going on.
所以我觉得，这才是真正会让经济引擎进一步下滑的原因。
So I I think that this is really what will drive the the engine down a little further down the road.
所以即使油价飙升，而且我们有计算显示这意味着通胀会上升，我们也必须明白，总得有人来承担这个通胀。
So even though oil is spiking and we have this calculation that tells us that will mean inflation will go up, we have to understand that somebody needs to carry that inflation on.
所以不像约翰逊太太，
So it's not like Mrs.
我也喜欢经常提到她，在美国，
Johnson that I also like to always like to refer to in The U.
嗯，
S.
她不会突然口袋里就有更多钱，当她站在那儿，你知道，试着给她的车加油的时候。
All of a sudden have more money in her pocket when she stands there by, you know, trying to put some, you know, gasoline on her on her, you know, car there.
所以她得做出取舍，说，好吧，现在油价贵了点。
So she will have to prioritize and say, okay, now it's a little more expensive.
我该买这个吗？
Do I buy this?
这个月我到底在省什么？
What is it that I'm holding back on this month?
因为不这样的话，我就入不敷出了。
Because I can't make ends meet otherwise.
我们可以看到，这才是真正的关键，通胀就要从这里开始推高了。
And we can see that is the real know, where we'll have inflation starting to push on.
我们需要看到，供应冲击带来的影响，会进入人们的心理，改变他们花钱的方式。
We need to see that what comes as a supply shock is something that goes into the psychology and the way that people are spending their money.
所以当有人拿1970年代来比较，说这就像70年代，你得说完全不一样。
So when people are push pointing to 1970s here and say, this is like 1970s, you have to say it's completely different.
主要有两个原因。
There are two main reasons for that.
第一个是最重要的。
The first one is the most important.
现在消费者的储蓄率已经降到了2%到3%。
That is the consumer savings at this point is down to 2% to 3%.
所以回到约翰逊太太的例子，
So back to Mrs.
她其实没有选择说，哦，你知道吗，
Johnson there, she doesn't have the option to actually say, oh, you know what?
我可以再多掏点钱，不管价格多少，就像上个月那样继续买。
I'm going to dive a little deeper in my pocket and just pay whatever it is and just do what I did last month as well.
或者她只能被迫做出取舍，因为2%到3%的储蓄率实在太低了。
Or she will simply have to prioritize because 2% to 3% is very low.
在70年代滞胀时期，通货膨胀很高，但储蓄率在10%以上，最糟糕的时候也有10%到20%。这意味着当时人们确实能多掏钱，说，好吧，这是我们自己造成的，所以通胀周期才能持续下去。
In the 70s, where we had this stagflation, we had high inflation, the savings rate was above 10%, 10% to 20% in the worst time, which means that back then, people could actually dive deeper into their pockets and say, okay, we put this upon ourselves, and that's why the inflationary cycle can go on.
但如果消费者撑不住，通胀就不会持续。
It doesn't go on if the consumer cannot carry it.
而且，只要你看劳动力市场——虽然这很复杂，我之前也说过，我的一个假设是劳动力市场状况不佳——
And furthermore, for as long as you see that the labor market, and which is complex as one thing I said and my, you know, one of the things that is my hypothesis here, that the labor market is not well.
如果你看非农就业人数的十二个月移动平均值，而且我们对周五的数据持保留态度，这个我们回头再说，那你就会发现过去十二个月平均每月新增就业大约只有五万个。
If you look to the twelve month moving average on the non farm payrolls, and we we take what we saw on Friday with a grain of salt here, we can come back to that, then you'll actually see that it's down around 50,000 jobs per month created over the last twelve months.
而且如果你看我们上次的修正数据，已经降到了一万六千个岗位。
And if you saw to the last revision we had, it was down to 16,000 jobs.
也就是说从二五年四月到二六年三月，我们每月只有一万六千个新增岗位。
That means from April 25 to March 26, we had 16,000 jobs per month.
这基本上就是停滞了。
That is a standstill.
所以现在劳动力市场停滞了，而约翰逊太太呢，
So now you have a standstill in the labor market and you have Mrs.
她也没有储蓄率，我们还在担心通胀，但我更担心的是相反的情况，就是当通胀冲击传导到整个系统时，长远来看会带来什么后果？
Johnson who doesn't have a savings rate and we are worried about inflation, I would be more worried about the opposite, which is that when the inflationary impulse goes through the system, what does that create down the road?
而这里我们需要明白，通胀数据的发布是有滞后性的。
And that is where we need to understand there is a lag on what the inflation numbers are that's coming out.
不管我们现在CPI数字是多少，比如3.5%，我们很快就能看到CPI数据会告诉我们什么。
And 3.5% of whatever we are in CPI numbers, we will see here soon what the CPI numbers will tell us.
嗯，在商业周期的这个阶段，这并不算高通胀。
Well, that is not high inflation at this time in the business cycle.
我们可以回顾2007年，也可以回顾2001年，当时也是同样的阶段。
We can go back to 2007, we can go back to 2001 as the same time.
那时候通胀要高得多，但我们在当前这个阶段往往会忘记这一点。
Inflation was much higher at that point, but we kind of forget that when we are in this phase.
因为我们当时处于那种，你知道，全球金融危机的长期影响在心理上仍然挥之不去，因为我们长期处于低利率环境中，而且我们担心通缩甚至彻底的通缩已经很久了，所以很难记起那之前的情况。
Because we were in that sort of you know, the the long arm of the great financial crisis still plays such a role in psyche because we've been in an environment with such low rates, and we were worried about disinflation and and outright deflation for so long that it's hard to sort of remember the time before that.
这里有几个点可以深入探讨。
Couple of things to dive in there.
所以我们现在处于商业周期的后期阶段。
So we are we are late stage business cycle.
这是你认为我们目前所处的阶段吗？
Is that where you believe we are?
而这并不一定是共识。
And that is not necessarily consensus.
我很喜欢在X上关注你，因为你对自己不认同的事情会提出反驳，而现在有很多强大的叙事。
I I love following you on X because you push back on things that you don't agree with, and there are a lot of powerful narratives out there.
所以你认为我们处于周期后期。
So you you think we're late stage.
那其他人呢？你觉得共识是什么？
Where does everyone else where where do you feel like consensus is?
看起来共识是，我们正处在一个新阶段的开始，处于早期阶段。
It seems like consensus is that this is the beginning of something that we are now starting and we are early phase.
但如果我们仔细看，其实很简单，不是吗？
But but if we look to it, we can I I mean, it's quite simple?
每个人都可以查看图表，比如看看美国的就业创造数据。
Everybody can look up a chart here and say, let's look at the job creation in The U.
美国。
S.
然后简单地跟踪十二个月的移动平均线。
And then simply follow a twelve month moving average.
如果你按月来看，你会被那些波动搞糊涂的。
If you try to follow it on a monthly basis, you'll get lost in the fluctuations there.
那样不行。
You can't do that.
我们要记住，这只是一项调查，而且调查数据之后还会被修正，所以你需要看平均值，也就是十二个月的平均值。
We have to remember it's a survey, and the survey will then be revised, and that's why you need to look at it on an average basis, so over twelve months.
如果你这么做，就能清楚地看到它怎么上下波动，然后你就得到了那个漂亮的——那就是商业周期。
And if you do that, and you can simply see how it goes up and down, then you have the nice that's the business cycle.
接下来你可以做的是，把增长率叠加在上面，看看同比增速是多少，然后你会发现增长率非常精准地跟随就业周期。
What you can do next then is that you can put the growth rate on top of that and see what is the year on year growth rate, and you'll see how very precisely the growth rate is following the job cycle.
为什么？
Why?
因为增长的本质在于消费者，也就是美国人，有工作并且花掉他们赚的钱。
Because what it is about growth is about is consumers, Americans, having a job and spending the money they earn.
而且，你知道，工作越好，就业的人越多，增长就越好。
And the more they, you know, the better the job, the better the the more that are employed, the better the growth.
现在，正如我所说，我们看到的这个十二个月移动平均值目前是偏低的，而且已经持续了相当长一段时间，但按名义水平来看，它比过去五六十年进入衰退前的水平还要低。
Right now, what we're looking at, as I said, this twelve month moving average is right now lower, and it's been there for quite some time, and but it's lower than it's been going into all recessions fifty, sixty years back on a nominal level.
这意味着，当前经济创造的就业岗位比过去那些衰退前时期还要少。
This means that the current economy is creating fewer jobs right now than it did all those, you know, all that time back before running in or before going into a recession.
如果你把它看作人口的一部分或者类似的东西，情况就更糟了。
And if you look to it as a part of the population or something like that, it's even worse.
劳动力市场完全停滞了。
The labor market is in a complete standstill.
这就是我们必须深入探讨的地方，以避免陷入只看这些数字的陷阱。
And this is where we have to dive to avoid falling into the trap of looking at these.
现在我们有16.2万个新增就业岗位，对吧？
Now we have 162,000 jobs created, right?
实际上没有人会仔细去看这个数字。
Nobody actually just double clicks on that.
因为如果你仔细看我们上周五得到的那个数字，你会发现它是基于44%的回复率，这意味着大约有16万家企业被问到，比如你这个月雇人了吗，或者你裁员了吗？
Because if you double take on that number we had last we had on Friday, you'll see that that was based on a response rate of 44%, which means that there is, like, I think it's 160,000 businesses that are being asked about, you know, did you employ somebody this month or did you fire people?
你有没有创造就业机会？
Did you create a job or not?
然后他们说，比如，这里加一个，那里加一个，就会有一个特定的回复率。
And they let's say, yeah, plus one from here, plus one, and there will be a certain response rate.
那是44%，这是我们能追溯到的最低的回复率。
It was 44%, which is the lowest we have seen in as far back we can go.
这意味着，对于剩下的56%，他们假设这些公司可能会表现得像那44%一样。
That means and what they did with the remaining 56% was that they said, oh, these 56% are probably going to perform like the 44.
现在，你猜怎么着？
Now, guess what?
如果他们不这样做，比如只有一半，那数字就已经降到12万或者1万了。
If they do not, they do, like, have the half of it, you will already be down, like, to 120,000 or 10,000.
如果他们裁员，这通常是常见的情况，因为很多时候他们延迟回复的原因就是他们开始裁员了。
And if they cut jobs, which is normally the case, what you see, because the reason they are late very often is because they're actually starting to cut jobs.
而且，我们也没有问，所谓的机构调查，它不问这是兼职工作还是全职工作。
So and furthermore, we don't ask also that that the the establishment survey, as it's called, does not ask for is it a part time job or is it a full time job?
这两者差别可大了。
And there is a huge difference there.
所以我觉得，大家对这个数字，尤其是那个头条数字，有点过于兴奋了，根本没意识到这背后是基于一些可能站不住脚的假设，而且这个数字还会被修正，肯定会被修正。
So I think the the narrative is getting too, you know, euphoric about the number, the headline number, not really understanding that this is based on assumptions that might not hold water and and also that, you know, it's up for it's up for revision, and it will be.
而且劳工统计局自己的90%置信区间，实际上是从4万个工作岗位到28万个工作岗位。
And BLS own range, 90% confidence range, was actually from 40,000 jobs to 280,000 jobs.
这就是他们的90%置信区间。
That's their 90%.
所以，我的意思是，你得对这个数字持保留态度。
So it's, I mean, you have got to take it with a grain of salt.
没错。
Exactly.
所以我想问你几个问题，因为“这次不一样”这种说法太有影响力了。
So I want to ask you about a couple of those because the idea that it's different this time is so powerful.
而且我觉得，你刚才可能正好泼了冷水的那种说法，大概有两个。
And there are sort of two of those narratives, I think that you just maybe threw some cold water on.
但首先，基于你刚才说的，因为大家都觉得我们在过热运行，经济火热，通胀高企，利率必须上调。
But first, based on what you just said, because everyone thinks we're in a run it hot, economy's hot, inflation's running hot, rates have to go up.
这里有什么看起来被错误定价了？
What what looks like it's mis priced here?
如果大家都只盯着表面，而没有真正关注商业周期、引擎和增长，那么在你看来，目前市场里有什么被错误定价了？
If everyone's paying attention to this, like, surface and they're not really paying attention to what's happening with the business cycle and the engine and growth, what looks mispriced to you in the market at this point?
哦，有很多。
Oh, there's a lot.
我是说，确实很多。
I mean, that's a lot.
从好的方面来说，我觉得债券，比如国债之类的，看起来被严重错误定价了，但这是因为它们现在太便宜了。
I mean, from the from the good end, would say that, you know, bonds, you know, you know, treasuries and so on looks very mispriced, but that's because they're too cheap at this point here, I would say.
然后，当你看到估值水平，再看看另一个股票市场，那里的一切都被炒得太高了。
And then I would say, you know, when you look to the valuation levels and you have another stock market, everything there is, I mean, it's so pumped up.
显然，尤其是大型科技公司、人工智能之类的，现在的估值水平简直高得离谱。
Obviously, especially the big tech businesses, AI and all that, these are completely, you know, insanely valuation levels we have right now.
所以我觉得这明显是不对的。
So I would say that is clearly no wrong.
我觉得美联储现在的利率水平是错的。
I would say that the the the the rates that we have from the Fed and so on is is, you know, at at the wrong level here.
我的意思是，为什么就业增长这么低，我们还要去降温呢？
I mean, why why is it that we we are that low job creation level, why do we wanna, you know, cool that down?
我是说
I mean
美联储有两个职责。
There are two there are two mandates in the Fed.
不只是有一个。
Not just one.
有两个。
There's two.
我觉得这也是我们在关于美联储的讨论中缺失的部分，大家都说，对，我们得把通胀降下来。
And I think that that's what's, you know, missing also in this whole conversation we see on Exxon sales where it's like, yeah, we gotta bring inflation down.
那2%的目标，你猜怎么着？
The 2% target guess what?
2%的目标是格林斯潘在90年代提出的，后来又重新提了出来。
The 2% target is something that Greenspan was talking about in the 90s and then brought back in.
实际上，我记得是在2012年，这个目标被正式定为我们要努力达到的水平。
And actually, think it was in 2012, it was put in as we want to aim for that.
但如果你回顾过去四五十年，你会发现大多数时候，通胀率都远高于2%，远高于，大概在3%、3.5%左右。
But if you go back forty, fifty years, you'll actually see that the majority of the time, you've had inflation levels well above 2%, well above, and except around 3%, 3.5%.
而且你会发现，当通胀率处于那个水平时，经济增长率实际上是最好的。
And you've seen growth rates actually were the best when you had inflation rates.
所以真的没人问过为什么非得是2%，我们非得为这个目标拼命。
So nobody really asked why is that 2%, we got to die for that.
我们为了压低通胀，不惜牺牲消费者。
We got to kill the consumer in the pursuit of getting inflation down.
没错，确实是这样。
No, that's so true.
那这个2%的目标是谁定的？是金发姑娘经济吗？
It's where who decided that was Goldilocks, right?
谁决定那是非通胀增长？
Who decided that was non inflationary growth?
我觉得有很多……我觉得你说得完全对。
I think there's been a lot of I think you're exactly right.
关于这个问题有很多疑问，而且这其实是一门非常精确的科学。
There's a lot of questions being asked on this, and it's a very exact science.
那些深入研究美联储文件的人说，显然，这并没有基于任何实质性的东西，什么都没有。
People who dive through the Fed papers say they don't apparently, this isn't based on anything, but Nothing.
就像其他人一样，这有点像是凭经验猜测，也许通胀目标应该定得更高一些，这样才能促进增长。
Sort of educated guessing like everyone else, and maybe it should be running higher so that we can promote growth.
我们稍后会多聊一些市场方面的话题。
So we'll talk a little bit more about markets in a moment.
我们频道做的所有事情只有一个目标，就是让你成为一个更敏锐、更明智的投资者，一个能在主流意识到之前就理解影响你财富的宏观力量的人。
Everything we do on this channel has one goal, to make you a sharper, better informed investor, someone who understands the macro forces shaping your money before the mainstream catches on.
但信息只是其中一半。
But information is only half of it.
另一半是付诸行动。
The other half is acting on it.
这正是 Wealthion 会员服务的目的。
And that's what Wealthion membership is for.
它让你从观看这些对话，转变为在自己的投资组合中实践这些理念。
It's how you go from watching these conversations to putting them to work in your own portfolio.
会员服务为你打开三扇门：获得顾问的指导，帮助你把真实资产纳入投资组合，以及对于合格投资者，获得专业基金的准入。
Membership opens three doors, access to advisors, helping build real assets into your portfolio, and for accredited investors, access to specialized funds.
想了解更多，成为会员的链接就在下方的描述框中。
To learn more, the link to become a member is in the description box below.
考虑到存在大量错误定价，而且人们对这个问题有误解，我认为有两个因素与此相关：当你谈论经济和经济的形态时，有很多关于 K 型经济的讨论，以及这种观点——你所说的实体经济，那 70% 的消费者，已经不再是真正重要的了。
So with that in mind that there's a lot of mispricing and people have this wrong, Two of the things I think that feed into this is when you're talking about the economy and the shape of the economy, there's been a lot of conversations about the K economy and this idea that the real economy you talk to, the 70% of consumers, that's not what really matters anymore.
我们变得如此金融化，以至于真正决定经济增长的是 K 型曲线的上半部分，即那 10% 的资产所有者，他们才是引擎。
We've become so financialized that it's the upper K, that 10% of asset owners that really determine economic growth, and that's the engine.
是的，确实有一些人在挣扎，但如果你想让市场有所反应，那才是我们需要关注的部分。
And yes, there are some struggling, but if you want markets to respond, that's the part we need to pay attention to.
听起来你并不认同这个观点。
It sounds like you don't buy into that.
我觉得这……我尽量说得委婉一点。
I think it's a I'll try to put it mildly.
首先，我觉得这是一种非常傲慢的看待问题的方式。
I think it's it's a very arrogant, first of all, way of looking at things.
我的意思是，7%的人口不重要。
I mean, the 7% of this population doesn't matter.
把他们推到一边去吧。
Let's push those aside.
重要的是，可以说，让他们吃蛋糕吧。
And what matters is let them eat cake, so to speak.
如果他们买不起面包，就让他们吃蛋糕。
If they can't afford bread, let them eat cake.
我的意思是，差不多就是这样。
I mean, it's kind of that.
我们也能看到，经济实际上并不是这样运转的。
We can also see that that's not how the economy actually runs well.
所以，经济好的时候，就是中产阶级过得好的时候。
So when the economy is well, that's when the middle class is doing well.
那时候美国的经济增长最快，这对世界有好处，对我们所有人都有好处。
That's when we have the highest growth in The US, which is good for the world, which is good for all of us.
但当我们看到，经济好的部分只集中在K型曲线的上端，只有利润在增长，那并不是就业机会大量增加的时候。
But when we see this, that we have that it's in the upper part of the K there, that it's just the profits that is doing well, well, that's not when we have great job creation.
那并不是经济运转良好的时候。
That's not when we have that the economy is running well.
那也不是GDP增长最高的时候。
That's not when GDP growth is the highest.
所以首先，我觉得，我们到底是为了什么？难道就是为了说，不，这不重要吗？
So first of all, I think it's very is that really what we are here for, to just say, no, don't matter.
那70%的人，我算不出来具体数字，但大概相当于美国两亿五千万人。
The 70% is likely I can't do the math, but that would be like two fifty million people in The US.
我们不在乎那些人。
We don't care about those.
重要的是那些资本、大企业的情况。
It's it's about the whatever the the the the capital, the the big businesses are doing.
你知道吗？
And you know what?
但经济并不是靠那些运转的。
That's not what the business that's not what the economy is running on.
经济是靠约翰逊太太这样的人运转的，她付账单，这个月多存了一点，可能去贷款，给自己买点新东西。
The economy is running on missus Johnson there, paying her bills, having a little extra this month, going down, maybe taking on a loan and then buying something new for herself.
那才是真正的经济。
That's really the economy.
这才是关键。
And that is the big thing.
但那样讲就太无聊了。
But we'll that's a boring story.
这故事太无聊了，我们不想聊这个。
It's a boring story, and we don't want to talk about that.
而且问题是，这种炒作还能持续一段时间，然后才会衰退。
And the thing is that the hype can go on for some time in decay.
从来没有过持续很久的K型复苏，抱歉，K型经济，这次也不会例外。
There's never been a K shaped recovery sorry, K shaped economy that's been persistent or been there for a long time, and it won't happen this time either.
我们会看到一段时间，山顶上那些人，站在最高处的，就是那些资产拥有者，那些混得好的人，他们会在这种环境里继续风光一阵子。
We will see it for a certain while, where we see that the ones on the top of the mountain there, standing there right on top, will be the ones that the asset owners, the ones that are doing well, they will thrive in this environment for some time.
就算风向变了，他们也能找到自己的出路。
And even when it turns, they will also find their ways.
但问题在下面，那才是真正的经济。
But the problem is down beneath, it's a real economy.
但没人提这个。
And nobody speaks of that.
现在，美国的中位数消费者，
Right now, the median consumer in The U.
从收入水平来看，
S.
是应付不了额外2000美元的账单的。
Looking at from income level will not be able to to handle a 2,000 extra bill.
所以如果车坏了，要花2000美元，
So if car breaks down, $2,000.
我是说，这其实不算多，
I mean, it's it's not a lot.
但这就是美国的中位数消费者。
That's the median consumer in The US.
我研究消费者和美国的消费者分层，
More people what I study the consumer and the consumer layers in The US.
把最顶层的20%去掉，
Take away the 20% on the top.
我说的不是那些高收入人群。
I'm not talking about those at those levels.
我说的是那80%的人，打个比方。
I'm talking about the 80%, let's say.
你要是看那部分人，情况可不太妙。
If you look to that, that doesn't look good.
现在靠薪水过活的人比以往任何时候都多，甚至比大危机时期和金融危机最严重的时候还要多。
More people actually lived paycheck to paycheck than we have ever seen before, even going into the big crisis, and even at the top of the financial crisis.
这可不是什么好局面。
This is not a good situation.
而且我觉得大家可能以为经济引擎还在运转。
And I think people think that you can have the engine is running on something.
说到底，企业是靠最终消费者赚钱的。
By the end of the day, businesses are earning money on the end consumer.
如果最终消费者没有工作，他们就没钱买那些通过各种应用推给他们的产品。
And if the end consumer doesn't have a job, they will not be able to buy their products that they are being supplied on whatever kind of app that they're sending out to us.
所以这种态度既傲慢又错误。
So it's arrogant and it's wrong.
我觉得这是一个非常重要的警示，让我觉得用词真的很关键。
I think it's a really important warning, and it strikes me like vocabulary matters.
把它叫作K型复苏听起来非常中立。
And calling it K sounds very agnostic.
就像说‘不平等正在伤害经济’一样，对。
Just like calling it inequality that's hurting the economy is Mhmm.
这对你刚才说的情况描述得更准确，但听起来有点争议性和挑衅意味。
Probably a much more accurate description of what you just stated, but that sounds controversial and provocative.
顺便说一句，看起来这并不是基于我们看到的选举以及欧洲围绕选举的一些讨论。
And by the way, this is it seems that this is not based on the elections we're seeing and some of talk around elections in Europe.
这似乎不只是美国特有的现象，那种普通大众觉得自己过得并不好的感觉。
This does not seem like it's a US phenomenon only, the idea that the sort of average person doesn't feel like they're doing well.
对。
No.
不不不，完全不是。
Not not not at all.
我觉得可能更明显，而且我们这里也有不同的制度。
I I think it's maybe more pronounced, and we have different kind of systems also here.
尤其是在我住的斯堪的纳维亚，我们有福利制度。
And especially where I live in Scandinavia, we have the the welfare system.
那个……
The
嗯，我想说公共部门把你们区分出来了。
the Well, I public was gonna carving sector you guys out.
你们在幸福指数上得分都很高。
You have the you're all that you're all score high on happiness.
但我不知道那是什么。
But I don't know what that is.
问题是，显然世界上有很多人在受苦，我们也能理解为什么。
Is the thing is, obviously, that there are lot of, you know, people around the world that are suffering, and we can understand why.
我的意思是，疫情之后我们首先尝试拉动投资，提前刺激消费。
I mean, what we did back after COVID, first of all, we tried to pull investment, pull consumption forward.
我们是怎么做的呢？
How did we do that?
通过降低利率。
By lowering rates.
所以问题是，你不能人为地制造大量需求。
So what you do is that you cannot artificially create a lot of demand.
你可以创造一些，但主要是透支未来。
You can create some, but you mostly borrow from the future.
你这话是什么意思？
What do you mean about that?
我的意思是，如果我知道有刺激政策要来，我可能会去买台新洗衣机。
I mean, I might go out and buy a new washing machine if we whenever I can see that there's some stimulus coming to me.
但我又不需要两台。
But don't need two of them.
而且我知道这东西是有使用寿命的。
And I know that it has a certain lifetime.
所以你能刺激的消费是有限的。
So you can only stimulate it to a certain amount.
当然，你可以让我们花得越来越多。
Of course, you can make us spend more and more.
这也是我们看到通胀的部分原因。
And that's part of why we see inflation also.
但我们确实看到很多人都在挣扎。
But we will see that We do see that a lot of people are struggling.
然后还有整个AI的因素。
And then you have the whole AI element to it.
这种情况我们以前也见过。
And this is what we have seen before.
每当出现技术变革时，那些50岁以上、多年来一直有份不错收入的人，可能会发现自己面临这样的局面：他们会说，你知道吗，我们不再需要你了，或者至少我们不会再雇两个像现在这里的约翰逊先生这样的人了，因为如果另一个人能用AI工作，我们就不需要你们两个人了。
And whenever we see technology shifts, people above the age of 50 who've had a decent paying job for many years might find themselves in a situation where they say, you know what, we don't need you any longer or at least we're not going to hire two of the mister Johnsons there that is here right now because if the other one, he can work with AI, we don't need two of you guys.
所以这就是问题所在。
So that is the problem.
从长远来看，技术的飞跃对人类是非常有益的。
That is where technology the leaps in technology are fantastic for humankind over the long period.
十年后，情况会有所改变。
And in ten years' time, things will have changed.
但这就像开手动挡汽车换挡一样，换挡的时候会失去一些动力。
But this is like in a normal transmission kind of gearbox car driving that, you'll lose the momentum while you're shifting the gear there.
在挂上能加速的挡位之前，前进的动力会有一点损失。
There's a small loss of momentum going forward until you get into the gear where you go faster.
而我们现在在实体经济中看到的，正是这种动力的损失。
But that loss of momentum in the real economy is what we see right now.
人们因为技术变革而失业。
People are being made redundant by the technology shift.
我们说，是的，这没问题。
We say, yeah, that's fine.
这又是，70%的正面影响就没了。
That's again, positive 70% out the door.
那都挺好的。
That's all good.
不幸的是，事情不是这样运作的，因为我们需要消费持续进行。
Unfortunately, that's not how it works, because we need to have the consumption going.
我们需要人们买东西。
We need to have people buying stuff.
如果他们不买，经济就不会增长。
If they don't, the economy is not growing.
这时候，你作为企业再强大也没用。
And that's where you can be as powerful as a business as you like.
如果没有最终消费者，中产阶级也不强大，那就不妙了。
If you do not have the end consumer there and the middle class is not strong, that's not good.
我们在其他地方也看到了这种情况。
And we see that elsewhere as well.
所以就像你说的，不只是美国。
So as you said, it's not just The US.
美国的数据最多，而且通常我们这边会晚一点才看到。
The US have the most data and it's normally what comes to us a little later.
所以我觉得在美国那边最明显。
So it's most visible there, I would say.
警示信号。
Cautionary signs.
你刚才提到了通胀，就是它从哪来的。
So you just mentioned inflation, sort of where it's coming from.
我觉得这也是大家担心的另一个问题。
And I think this is the other issue that people worry about.
在你说的这种模型里，我们有一个没人意识到的疲软经济。
So in this sort of model that you're talking about, we have a weak economy no one's realized.
这会扼杀需求。
That's gonna kill demand.
所以你会看到通胀滞后，但会下降。
And so you will see inflation lag but go down.
我们正处于政策失误的边缘，因为大家都在经济疲软时加息。
And we're on the cusp of a policy error because everyone's hiking into that weakness.
如果美联储加息，会不会让经济衰退或潜在衰退更严重？
Does that make the downturn or potential for recession more serious if the Fed hikes?
我们看到欧洲央行加息了。
We saw the ECB hike.
日本央行也可能加息。
BOJ is likely to hike.
这是不是让人担心？
Is that a concern?
百分之百。
100%.
百分之百。
100%.
我是说，我们看到欧洲央行在2008年就是这么做的。
I mean, we saw the ECB doing that into 2008.
那是个巨大的错误。
It was a massive mistake.
现在他们可能已经犯了两次同样的错误。
Now they've probably done it twice.
目前我们还没有陷入衰退。
We're not in a recession at this point.
他们在2008年经济衰退时就是这么做的。
They did it in the recession back in 2008.
他们在六七月份就这么做了。
They did it in June July.
那是在2008年。
It was in 2008.
而且，我看了他们当时的预测，关于通胀应该是什么样子的，结果他们完全预测错了。
And there, I just looked at their outlooks back then in terms of what inflate what inflation should be like, and they were way off.
他们当时预期通胀会超过百分之三、百分之三点五，结果却跌到了零以下。
They were expecting inflation to be above three, three and a half percent, and it was down below zero.
然后欧盟那边就出现了通缩，对吧。
And then and we have deflation, right, in the in the in the EU.
所以，我是说，我不知道他们看的是什么，但有时候，特别是在通胀方面，你会看到某些机制需要发挥作用。
So they I mean, I don't know what they look to, but they if you it's sometimes you will have especially when it comes to inflation, you will see that there are certain mechanisms that needs to work.
事情是有先后顺序的，这大概就是他们有点忽略的地方。
There's a sequence of things, and this is probably what they kind of, you know, miss somewhat.
所以我们会看到，他们可能正在加息，结果突然之间，他们发现，或者他们意识到，哎呀，经济没那么强劲。
So the we will see that they are, you know, probably that they are hiking right into a situation where all of a sudden, they it appears or they it dawns on them that they oh, the economy is not that strong.
顺便说一句，我们当时确实有第二个任务。
And we by the way, we actually had that second mandate.
那种情况在2007年就曾让美联储意识到问题，直到金融危机，当时他们从8月开始承诺加息，股市在短时间内飙升了25%。
That situation kind of dawned on the Fed back in 2007 until the financial crisis, where they started to promise hikes in August and you had the final spike in the in the stock market 25% in, like, no time there.
但到了2008年1月，美联储才意识到现在情况严重了。
But in January 2008, it kind of dawned on the Fed that now things are getting serious here.
那是个糟糕的就业数据。
That was a bad job number.
跟流动性有点关系。
It was something about liquidity.
美联储实际上在2008年1月加息了，不对，是降息了125个基点，而当时通胀率是4%，还在往上涨。
And the Fed actually hiked by sorry, cut by 125 basis point in January 2008, while inflation was at 4% and rising 4%.
现在大家就在讨论这个2.52%。
And this is where people are talking about the 2.52% now.
虽然我们现在比4%低，而且现在的上涨程度也没有2007年底到2008年那么厉害。
Even though we are lower than the 4% and it's not rising right now to the degree we saw back in late two thousand and seven into 2008.
那时候通胀一路涨到2008年年中。
And it was going up all the way into mid two thousand and eight.
问题在于，一旦经济这艘超级油轮转向，经济开始下滑，通胀就会下降，因为关键在于谁在承担通胀。
The problem is the moment the supertanker turns, the economy turns, inflation is falling down, because it's all about who is carrying inflation on.
如果人们被裁员了，就不会有通胀了。
And if the if people are being laid off, will not have inflation.
通货膨胀不是从天上掉下来惩罚我们的东西。
Inflation is not something that comes down from the sky and, you know, punishes us.
它是我们自己扛在身上的。
It's something that we are carrying it on carrying on ourselves.
而且需要某种机制把它传给下一个人，再传给下一个人。
And there need to be kind of a mechanism for to to bring it on to the next guy and the next guy.
如果没有需求，就不会有通货膨胀。
And if there's no demand, there'll be no inflation.
这就是为什么他们意识到这一点的时候，可能已经太晚了。
That's why the moment they realize it, that that's and that's probably going to be too late.
所以美联储在搞些什么，希望他们能获取更实时的数据，因为他们现在看的数据似乎很滞后。
And that's why wash has, you know, is up to something in terms of hopefully hopefully that they are trying to get some more real time data because the data they look at right now seems to be very well By
话说回来，在人工智能时代，我们竟然无法实时获得更准确的经济数据，没有这些滞后，也不用几个月后修正，这真是不可思议。
the way, in the age of AI, it's kind of incredible that we can't get more accurate data across the economy in real time without these lags and without things that have to be revised months later.
我是说，这有点造成了不必要的混乱。
I mean, sort of, you know, it's it's kind of creating this this chaos maybe that doesn't need to happen.
如果真是这样的话，那我们在经济放缓的时候收紧政策，这可能会增加衰退的风险。
So if that is the case, what does and we're we have the potential for a policy, sort of policy tightening into a slowing economy and increases the odds of recessions.
你对大宗商品怎么看？
How do you feel about commodities here?
如果需求放缓就在眼前，但市场还不知道，那大宗商品会不会继续上涨？还是说你对那里的价格走势也有担忧？
If we have slowing demand around the corner, but the market doesn't know it yet, Would we expect commodities to rip into that, or is that also where are you concerned about some of the price action there?
再说一次，我们得看看历史，看看以前发生过什么，尤其是2007年发生了什么。
Again, we need to look to history, what has happened before, and what happens into what happened into 2007, especially.
我觉得现在经济和2007、2008年有很多相似之处，市场也和2000年科技泡沫顶峰时有很多相似点。
I mean, is many similarities to what we see in the economy in 2007, 'eight at this point, and there are many similarities to what we see in the market into 2000 to the top in the tech bubble back then.
但如果你看2007年，实际上在2008年中期，油价确实出现过一波飙升。
But if you look to this to 2007 there, and we actually saw in 2008, we actually saw there was a rip in oil into the mid of 2008.
那时候的叙事是中国要统治世界，需要石油，会买光全世界的石油，其他人就没得用了。就在那波涨到每桶大概140.5美元的时候，我记得是每桶。
And that was also that was carried on by the narrative of that China is going to rule the world, and they need oil, and they will buy all the oil in the world, and there'll be nothing left for the rest of us, Right into that top of around $140.50 per barrel, I think it was, dollars per barrel.
然后油价就暴跌了，因为大家终于意识到经济其实已经停滞了。
And then it just plunged because then the real realization of the economy actually just stalled.
同时，铜也出现了类似的情况，这也是我们现在听到的。
Same time, we solved with copper, which is also what we hear now.
我们现在听到，哦，铜价要涨了，会涨到极端水平，因为通胀，或者因为……然后这就有点循环了。
We hear, oh, now copper is going to rise and it's going to rally to, you know, extreme levels because inflation or because and that's where it kind of, you know, goes circular.
问题是，我们能看到这些价格飙升，短期内它们确实会影响通胀的计算。
Problem is, again, I mean, we can see these spikes and they will have an effect, you can say, on a short term basis for inflation in terms of the calculation.
但这不会让约翰逊太太一天下来口袋里多出钱来。
It will not give missus Johnson more money in her pockets by the end of the day.
反而会让她的日子更难过。
It will make it harder for her.
所以，这也会成为扼杀那些本可以随经济增长而增长的剩余潜力的因素之一。
So it will be part of what kills the left, the pots left that can grow with the economy.
但答案是肯定的。
But the yes is the answer.
你确实会看到价格飙升，而这正是我们经常看到的情况。
You can see a spike, and that's very often what we see.
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它先是冲高，然后就会暴跌下来。
It kind of goes into a spike, and then it comes crashing down.
我觉得我们离铜价的潜在高点很近了，至少我是这么看的。
I think we're very close to a potential top in the at least in copper, I would say.
一旦它开始回落，整个局面就会完全不同。
And when that starts to come down, it's going to be a completely different picture.
石油的情况有点不一样，因为现在霍尔木兹海峡和伊朗那边的情况。
The situation in oil is a little different because of what we see now in Hormuz and in Iran and so on.
这种情况可能会持续下去。
That can go on.
但话说回来，现在的说法跟2007年或2008年我们看到的很像。
But again, the narrative is there like what we saw in 2007, different or 2008, actually.
虽然不同，但本质上差不多。
Different but kind of same.
我觉得这正是有些人难以理解的地方。
And that's I think that's what some people are struggling with.
所以，关于工业金属、大宗商品这些跟需求紧密相关的东西，观点已经说得很清楚了。
So point made on sort of industrial metals, commodities, the things that are really related to demand.
但说到油价，还有那些对AI建设至关重要的金属，我觉得在地缘政治紧张和这种不惜一切代价争夺主导权的竞赛之间，有种感觉是我们处在一个资源受限的世界，需求在这两方面可能跟经济脱节了，这就可能造成滞胀的局面——你说经济是对的，但通胀还是居高不下。
But when it comes to oil prices, and, you know, even some of these other, metals that are necessary for the AI build out, say, I feel like between geopolitical tensions and then this sort of race for dominance, build at all costs, there is a a feeling that we're in this resource constrained world where the demand is kind of maybe dislocated from the economy on those two fronts, and that creates the potential for a stagflationary type situation where, yes, you're right about the economy, but you see inflation remain high.
你觉得这种情况有可能发生吗？
Is that a probability you consider?
这对央行来说又会带来哪些麻烦？
And how does that complicate things for for central banks?
你看，通胀要持续下去，除非有消费者真正在消费，否则通胀是持续不了的。
See, again, inflation that is more permanent cannot persist unless you cannot have inflation unless you have a consumer that is actually there.
所以你不认为会出现滞胀，对吧？
So you don't buy stagflation as a
我觉得美联储其实也说过，这是我之前说对的一点。
think the Fed actually said that's one of the things I said correctly.
我记得好像是保罗说的，这个词还是留到真正出现的时候再用吧。
I think it was Paul saying, let's save that term when for when we really have it.
我的意思是，滞胀是指通胀率达到6%、7%左右，失业率在7%、8%左右的情况。
I mean, stagflation is when you have inflation of 6%, 7%, something like that, and you have unemployment levels around 7%, 8% or something like that.
那才是真正的滞胀，对吧？
That is real stagflation, right?
我们现在看到的不是这种情况。
That's not what we see right now.
我们完全看不到这种情况。
We don't see it all.
别说了，我的意思是，通胀率才3.5%，谈什么滞胀，回去看看过去四五十年通胀的历史，看看我们有多少时间超过这个水平。
Don't even I mean, three and a half percent inflation, talk about stagflation, go back and look at the forty, fifty years of inflation history and see how many long we have been above that.
这只是一个说法而已。
It's a narrative.
有时候，我们说的这种说法会自己越传越离谱，然后就像旋风一样停不下来。
And this is where sometimes, again, we the narrative gets gets better of itself and starts to run and it's like a whirlwind just going on.
现在大家都说债券市场有问题，有滞胀，这好像成了新的头条新闻，看起来就是这样。
And now everybody is agreeing that we have a bond market situation and we have stagflation and it's like the new so it's all news sorry, headlines that is seems to
确实是这样。
be such Yeah.
这就是为什么我们喜欢进行这些对话。
We this is why we love to have these conversations.
我们有一个行业，人们为了经济利益而推广他们的说法。
We have an industry of people promoting their narrative with financial interests.
所以，我认为这让那些在外面试图理解这一切的投资者感到困难。
And so that's why it makes it hard, I think, for investors who are sitting out there trying to make sense of it.
而且，还有一些人同意你的观点，认为滞胀只是你所说的过渡阶段，即通货膨胀滞后于经济衰退。
And and And there are others who share your view that stagflation is just what you're calling the transition where inflation is lagging into the downturn.
这不是一种永久状态。
It's not a permanent state.
这只是周期的一部分。
It is just a part of the cycle.
是的。
It is.
这种情况是可能出现的。
Can be a situation.
当你看到市场中出现投机性情况，而经济刚开始回升的时候。
The moment you see that a specular speculative kind of situation arise in the in the market, in an economy that is starting to rise.
所以这就是为什么我们在2022年经历了滞胀局面，当时有九个月债券和股票都在下跌。
So that was why we kind of had a stagflationary situation in 2022, where we saw nine months of both bonds and stocks actually declining.
因为那时候失业率还比较高。
You kind of have the because employment unemployment was still rather high there.
我们看到，由于疫情，就业率下降得非常快。
We saw that, you know, very fast decline in employment there due to COVID.
然后市场不得不自我修正。
And then it kind of had to correct itself.
那大概持续了九个月。
That was like a nine month kind of period.
你可以看到，如果你能度过这个阶段，因为这一切都关乎心理。
You can see that if you get out on the other side of this situation here, because it's all about psychology.
心理因素就是当我们看到刺激措施进入这个系统，来再次纠正它，或者开始让周期重新上升的时候。
Psychology will be when we see stimulus coming into this system to kind of correct it again or start to, you know, get the cycle to go up again.
这又取决于约翰逊太太，她是会把刺激措施中省下的钱花掉，还是会存起来。
Depending again on missus Johnson there, whether she's going to spend the money that she saves in the stimulus or she's going to sit on them.
因为如果她存起来，你就看不到真正的复苏，也就是真正的就业数据。
Because if she sits on them, then you'll not see the real recovery, meaning the real jobs numbers.
她不会去买新房或者做这些事情。
She'll not go buy a new house and all these things here.
她会存起来，因为她害怕用掉或者花掉那些钱。
She'll sit on them because she's she's afraid of using that money or spending it.
而你可以看到，投机循环可能会在金融领域开始。
Whereas you can see the speculative circle could start in the financial sector.
所以我认为，滞胀实际上更多出现在像我们现在看到的这种衰退的另一面，也就是美联储介入的时候。
So I think the the stagflation is actually more on the other side of a decline like what we see here when the Fed comes in.
而实际上我们在2022年也看到了这种情况，当时美联储已经介入，我们看到了所有刺激措施的退出。
And that was actually what we saw in '22 also when the Fed had been in there and we saw all the stimulus coming out.
那是通胀的风险，而不是经济放缓时的风险。
That's risk of inflation, not when the economy is slowing.
这就是问题所在。
And that is the problem.
这种情况是
That's situation of
经济。
the economy.
对，正在加速。
Yeah, ramping up.
在增长反应之前就加速了。
Ramping up before growth responds.
所以通胀先于复苏出现。
So inflation leads out of the recovery.
那么这对股市意味着什么？
So what does this mean for equities?
我知道你一直觉得我们正处于这种所谓的‘融涨’时期，最终会以糟糕的方式结束，但总会有某种形式的融涨。
I know that you have long felt that we are in this sort of melt up sort of era that's going to end badly, but there will be some sort of melt up.
根据你刚才说的，你对股票怎么看？
How are you thinking about stocks based on what you just described?
美
U.
国
S.
股票。
Stocks.
我们先从那里开始。
Let's start there.
是的。
Yes.
我们从美
We start with U.
S。
S.
股票。
Stocks.
对，显然的。
Yeah, obviously.
我觉得我们还没到那一步。
I think we're not there yet.
我的意思是，确实有，而且我也不得不说，是的，好吧，我们现在达到了这个水平，但我们还没有看到所有那些需要出现的情况，才能说经济真的在开始走下坡路。
I mean, there are and I have had also to say, yeah, okay, we reached this level now, and we're not seeing all the things that need to be there for us to say that we have an economy that is really rolling over at this point.
我特别关注的是，短期收益率很快就会开始下降。
What I'm looking for specifically will be that the short term yield starts to drop really shortly.
但我们还没看到这种情况，好吧，那意味着我们还能涨得更高。
And we don't see that, okay, that means we can go even higher.
所以我觉得我们可能会看到纳斯达克涨到37000、39000点，而且会非常非常快。
So I I think we could see 37, 39,000 on the Nasdaq and and in a very, very fast manner.
我觉得，就像我之前说的，现在的市场和2000年那时候很像。
I think, as I said before, the markets resembles a lot what we saw back in 2000 here.
而且不仅仅是估值水平。
And it's not just valuation levels.
我们以前会分析将近一百万个市场和经济的相关数据点，就是为了比较不同的时间段或者经济周期，现在的情况和那时候非常相似。
It's a lot of, know we used to retract close to a million data points on the markets and the economy to just compare the different time phases or the phases in the economy, and it's a lot very similar to that.
2000年的时候，我们确实看到了股市最后七周的表现。
In 2000, we actually saw the last seven weeks into the stock market.
纳斯达克在七周内涨了45%。
We saw a 45% rally in the Nasdaq, 45% in seven weeks.
所以，是的，那是在顶部的时候。
So, yeah, that was into the the into the top.
然后我们看到，在两三周内，它几乎跌了40%。
And then we saw it actually in two to three weeks, and it just dropped dropped by 40% almost.
那就是崩盘。
So that was the crash.
这就是埃菲尔铁塔的情况，它很快就会倒塌。
That's where we have the Eiffel Tower and it comes down very quickly.
你可以看看今天的股市，人们有各种理由认为它还会继续上涨。
You can take a look at the the at the stock market today and people have all sorts of reasons why it can go on.
但从来不会这样。
It never does.
我们在白银和黄金上就看到了这种情况。
We saw it with silver and gold.
我们也看到了白银的暴跌。
We saw silver crashing also.
我认为韩国的股市，也就是KOSPI指数，也已经见顶了。
We saw I think the stock market in in the in South Korea, the KOSPI has topped as well.
我们也看到了它强劲上涨，然后出现了下跌。
We saw that as well also coming up very strongly, and then we saw the drop.
人们没有预见到这一点，总希望最好的结果出现，但是，你知道，我不认为有人能给我看一张图表，显示我们先上涨，然后横盘一段时间。
People don't envision that and kind of want the best to come out of that, but I you know, it's I don't think anybody can show me a chart where we go up and then we go sideways for some time.
它总是像埃菲尔铁塔那样直线上升，然后就会非常猛烈地回落。
It always goes up like that, you know, like the Eiffel Tower, and then it kind of comes comes down very strongly.
然后我们又面临了同样的情况。
And we have the whole situation there again.
我的意思是，经济并没有那么强劲。
I mean, the economy is not as strong.
估值水平简直离谱，而且我们有很多因素可能指向——如果我们出现那种冲顶行情，我是说，我觉得未来一到三个月内可能会看到，那么到了新年的时候，情况可能会大不相同。
The valuation levels are, you know, are insane, and we have so many things that could, you know, start to to to point to a if we get that kind of blow off top that, I mean, I'm thinking we could see over the next one, two, three months, let's say, then we could it could be quite different when we get to New Year's.
我觉得人们很难看到——我觉得大家显然都有同样的担忧。
I think I think people struggle to see I think people obviously share that concern.
因为我们整天都在谈论可能破裂的泡沫，因为我们对互联网泡沫和金融危机都有痛苦的记忆，尽管情况完全不同。
Because all we do is talk about the bubble that might burst because we all have such painful memories of the .com bubble as well as what happened in the great financial crisis, although completely different.
但大家都很难看到催化剂在哪里。
But then everyone struggles to see the catalyst.
我昨天看到一个有趣的推文，说股市在人类灭绝的威胁下才跌了不到四分之一个百分点。
And I saw a funny tweet yesterday saying q q q down barely a quarter of a percent on threats of human extinction.
因为当然，OpenAI和Anthropic的高管们都在头条上说，人工智能可能在十年内毁灭我们所有人。
Because, of course, all the headlines came out from the executives from OpenAI and Anthropic saying AI can kill us all in a decade.
而纳斯达克好像说，我没事。
And Nasdaq was like, I'm okay.
所以，如果连这种恐惧都不能让市场下跌，而且你认为收益率会下降，因为经济疲软和通胀要来，那到底是什么催化剂能把它打下来，还是说这就是那个百万美元的问题？
So if if if even those kinds of fears can't can't derail this and you think yields will go down because there there's weakness coming and inflation, what's the catalyst that's going to knock this out, or is that the sort of million dollar question?
就是说，是什么把它拉下来的？
Like, what is it that pulls it down?
这总是我被问到的问题。
This is always what I'm asked.
然后人们会说，对。
And then people say, yeah.
但催化剂是什么？
But what is the catalyst?
你知道吗？
You know?
因为总得有个什么东西让我们跌下去。
Because there needs to be something that sends us off.
然后我有两种回答方式。
And then I have two ways of answering that.
首先，我问过他们，2007年10月的催化剂是什么？
First of all, I've asked them, what was the catalyst in October 2007?
其实没人能真正告诉我们，是的，但那是次贷危机。
And nobody can actually tell us, yeah, but that was a subprime.
不是。
No.
在你说见顶的那天，其实并没有催化剂。
There was no catalyst on the day that you had the talk.
就是那天。
The day of.
就是那天。
The day of.
当时并没有催化剂。
There was no catalyst.
那是2007年10月29日，我记得是10月9日。
It was the twenty ninth of October two thousand twenty two thousand seven, and it was on the ninth, I think, was on the of of October.
那里也没有催化剂。
There was no catalyst there.
因为问题是，这些情况会发展到一个顶点，然后慢慢回落，事情变得过于沉重、过于昂贵，你知道，这是正常的。
Because the thing is that these things develop into a top, then it kind of, you know, slowly rolls over, and things are just getting too heavy, too expensive, too, you know, it's a normal.
所以有时候确实会有催化剂。
So you can have a catalyst sometimes.
然后我回到另一种解释方式，我通常这样解释。
And then I go back to the other way, I normally explain it.
是什么让雪崩开始从山坡上滚下来？
What makes an avalanche start to rumble down the mountainside?
你可能会说，有时候可能是一个巨大的冲击。
And you will have to say sometimes it can be a big shock.
有时候可能是你主动去触发它，比如朝它开枪，或者有人在雪坡上滑雪之类的，就把它给弄崩了。
It can be that you actually bring it down by, you know, shooting into it or you'll say, guys skiing down the slope or something like that that sets it off.
或者也可能是雪慢慢堆积，越来越重，但底下的结构突然变得越来越不稳定。
Or it can be the slow falling of the, you know, the snow actually just getting heavier, heavier, but the underlying structure underneath is all of a sudden getting more and more unstable.
我不知道，有时候是大事件，有时候是小事情。
I do not know, sometimes it's a big thing, sometimes it's a small thing.
但我知道的是，时间拖得越久，情况并不会越来越好。
But I do know that the longer it persists, it's not like then it's becoming better and better.
反而会变得越来越不稳定。
It's becoming more and more unstable.
我们可以看看现在所有层面，所有让市场不稳定的因素，比如AI业务在收入确认方式上的循环问题，还有对这些东西的需求等等。
And we can just look at all the level, all the things that makes it unstable at this point here, you know, the circularity in terms of how we recognize revenue and so on when it comes to AI businesses and all that, you know, the demand for all of this and all these things that there.
然后消费者这边，我觉得是那种慢慢下滑，让情况变得越来越不稳定的因素。
Then the consumer, which I think is the slow, you know, slow falling down and making it more and more, you know, unstable.
我不知道催化剂会是什么。
I do not know what the catalyst is gonna be.
会不会像2007年那样，一点征兆都没有？
Is this going to be something like in 2007 where there was none?
还是说会像那种，突然一下子，某家公司爆出个什么事，直接让人对整个人工智能的收入产生质疑，或者类似的失败？
Or is it going to be something where it's like, boom, there is this thing that is going on right now in, you know, company X or Y, which actually questions the whole AI revenue or something fail like
对，就是某家公司出事那种。
with firm or something Right.
就像
Like
差不多那样。
Something like that.
但你知道，要预测这些，我除非是魔术师才行。
But, you know, I would be, you know, a magician or, you know, to to to actually be able to to forecast some of that.
我做不到，但我能告诉你，雪崩的底层结构已经不稳定了。
I I can't, but I can tell you that the underlying structure of the Avalanche is unstable.
它开始崩塌只是时间问题。
And it's just a matter of time before it starts rumbling down.
我可不想待在雪崩正下方那个村子里。
I don't wanna be in that village just down beneath that that avalanche.
这就是为什么我们一直强调分散投资，让大家现在就开始调整投资组合，因为我们担心的是所有人会同时夺门而出。
Which is why we talk about diversification all the time and people preparing their portfolios now because the worry we all have is that everyone runs for the exit at the same time.
而且我们知道，在这种情况下，散户总是最先被踩踏的那批人。
And we know in that situation, individuals are always the ones who get stampeded over.
这真的很难办。
It's just so hard.
那跟我聊聊美元和加密货币吧。
So talk to me a little bit about we're gonna do dollar and crypto.
先说说美元吧，因为美元贬值交易似乎又流行起来了。
Talk to me a little bit about the dollar first because the dollar debasement trade seems like it's it's back in vogue.
对。
Yes.
斯科特·贝森特说要在外汇和国债市场进行干预，像是在挑战市场，看谁敢来跟他对着干。
Scott Bessen say intervening in both forex and treasury saying, am the house, of seeming to, you know, challenge the market to come after him.
你对美元的前景怎么看？
How are you feeling about the dollar outlook?
说实话，我现在都有点不好意思了，但我非常看好美元，不管接下来会出现什么样的崩盘。
Actually, I'm I'm embarrassed at all at this point, but I'm massively bullish the dollar going into whatever kind of bust.
首先，这里面有技术面的因素。
And first of all, there's a technical element to that.
至少对我来说，很明显我们将会看到美元下跌。
It's quite clear what it what's to me at least that we we're going to see a decline in the dollar.
我期待这个已经有一段时间了。
I've been expecting that for for quite some time.
现在我们也开始看到这种情况了。
And we're starting to see that.
不管原因是什么，这又回到了商业周期的问题上。
Whatever the reason is, it's again going back to the business cycle.
这就是我们在当前阶段所看到的。
That is what we see into this phase.
通常触发这个的，是市场终于意识到美联储会在某个时候出手支持的时候。
What normally sets it off is the point where the it becomes, you know, dawns on the market that the Fed is going to support at some point.
现在大家都在说，哦，因为通胀，美联储要加息了。
Right now, people are talking about, oh, it's going to hype because inflation.
但突然之间，当市场发现，哦，其实美联储没那么鹰派，而且美联储开始关注另一个目标——顺便说一句，他们应该这么做——然后大家就明白了，美联储会对此采取行动。
And all of a sudden, when the the market finds out that, oh, you know, the Fed is actually not that hawkish and because the Fed starts to look to the other mandate, which they should, by the way, then they it becomes clear that the Fed is going to do something about that.
然后，你知道，当美联储行动时，市场也会跟着动。
And then, you know, when the Fed moves, the market will move with that.
然后，他们会在某个时候开始降息，或者至少不再那么鹰派。
And then, know, they will go into cut at some point or at least be less hawkish.
这会让美元走低。
It's going to send the dollar south.
我觉得我们开始进入那个阶段了。
I think we are starting to get into that.
而且正是在那个阶段，总会有关于货币贬值的讨论，因为现在美元，你知道，他们又在打压美元了，然后美元又要完蛋了。
And then you have exactly in that phase always also the the debasement talk, because now the dollar is, you know, and they're now crushing the dollar again, and and it's going to die again.
而且每次我们看到的是，美元体系的构建非常精巧，可以说是美国的福音。
And and every time what we see is that the the very construct of the dollar system is so fantastically constructed that it's, you know, it's a blessing for The US, I would say.
但这个体系如此强大，以至于当世界上开始出现这些不好的事情时，你会看到对美元的需求会增加，因为信贷额度等等需要被平仓。
But it's it's such a strong and powerful setup that, you know, when these bad things start to develop in the in the world, you'll see that there'll be a more of a demand for the dollar because credit lines and so on needs to be closed.
你不会用黄金或者苹果股票、比特币之类的来平仓。
And you're not going to close that with gold or with, you know, an Apple stock or Bitcoin or whatever.
你会用美元来平仓。
You're going to close it down with your with dollars.
所以对美元会有需求，因为世界其他地区在某种程度上都做空了美元。
So there'll be a demand for dollars because we are all the rest of the world kind of, to a certain degree, short the dollar.
如果我们开始看到不好的事情发生，我们就需要美元来平掉我们的信贷额度，以及应对追加保证金之类的。
And which if we start to see bad things unfolding, we'll need to have dollars to actually close our credit lines and whatever it is that's going to be, you know, marching calls and so on.
所以这些事情，某种程度上，是刻在美元体系里的。如果我对的话，如果我们看到AI泡沫破裂，你会看到一段时间内的美元短缺。
So these things this is kind of, you know, carved in to to the dollar system there also that when if if I'm right on that, if we see the AI bubble bursting, you will see a dollar shortage for some time.
这就是为什么美联储总是会介入，因为在某个时候他们必须这么做，因为美元就像一颗破坏球，它的强势可以碾压世界其他地方，而且这会自我强化。
And that's why the Fed always comes in, because at some point they need to, because the dollar is the wrecking ball that can crush the rest of the world with the with its strength, and it'll be self propelling.
所以他们必须得阻止它。
So they will have to stop it.
所以我觉得我跟上次一样，还是那么看空。
So I am very I'm not very I'm I'm as bearish as I was last time, I think.
我觉得我们可以看到美元指数跌到93、94左右。
You know, I think we can see the see the dollar dropping the Dixie down to around 93, 94.
我们已经跌了一些了。
We are already some time some some way down there.
一个月前我们还在100以上呢。
We were above above 100 just a month ago.
而且我觉得在那之后，美元会非常强劲地反弹，因为我觉得AI泡沫破裂的过程不会好看。
And I think after that, I think the dollar is going to rise and rally in a very, very strong manner because I think the unfolding or the unraveling of things into an AI bubble bursting is not gonna be pretty.
我觉得会比以前见过的都要严重得多。
And I think it's gonna be much more severe than we have seen before.
那你对那种说法怎么看？就是说现在有替代方案了，而且世界已经意识到美国的一些重大系统性问题。
So what do you do you give any credence to the argument that there's now alternatives and the world has sort of woken up to some of the big systemic issues with The U.
美国。
S.
而且黄金、比特币和以太坊可能会扮演更重要的角色。
And that gold and Bitcoin and ETH may play a larger role.
所以，是的，人们确实需要美元，但他们会越来越多地考虑增加这两类资产的配置，作为在困境或市场过度膨胀时的避风港。
So yes, people will need dollars, but they will increasingly be looking to add to both of those asset classes as a place to turn in time of distress or overstatement.
在困境时期，人们通常没有实际去这么做的选择。
In times of in time in times of distress, people normally don't have the option of actually doing that.
当然，会有大型基金和很多参与者确实能够做到这一点。
They of of course, there will be big funds, there'll be a lot of players that will actually be able to do so.
所以，是的，这些大玩家可能会平掉他们的仓位，然后尝试进入这些资产中的一些。
So yes is the you know, these will probably take their, you know, positions, close them down, and then, you know, try to get into something of some of these things here.
但我认为大多数市场参与者会意识到现金的需求，你会看到很多这些资产会被抛售。
But I think the majority, the market in general will see that there will be a need for cash and you'll see that a lot of these things will be sold off.
会有一些好企业被抛售，甚至可能低于其公允价值，或者低于其现金流所支撑的价值。
There'll be good businesses that'll be sold off that might even go below what could say this is a fair value for this business or with the cash flow that's been producing.
你会看到黄金，你知道，那些被囤积的黄金，尤其是亚洲和其他地区的国家囤积的。
You'll see that gold that's, you know, that's been hoarded like by, you know, by by especially countries in in Asia and elsewhere.
你会看到那些可能也会被抛售。
You'll see that that probably also will be sold off.
所以这就是我们在现金短缺时期通常看到的情况。
So that's what we normally see in that cash shortage time.
而且这就是为什么我认为，在那个阶段，我不确定持有那些东西会是好事。
And and that's why I think, you know, in that phase, I'm not certain that it's going to be a great thing to have it hold any of those.
每次真正的经济衰退，尤其是泡沫破裂的时候，都会出现这个阶段，就像我之前说的，流动性系统里出现的漏洞需要大量美元来填补。
There is simply this phase in every real recession, especially when you have the bursting bubble there, see there's a lot of demand for dollars to close down, as I said before, holes that are popping up in the liquidity system.
所以我认为在那个阶段，不行。
So I think the in that phase, no.
但在那之后的阶段，我非常看好，就像我说的，黄金和大宗商品，因为美联储很可能会像上次一样出手，他们总是这样，试图再次兜底。
But in in the coming phase after that, I think I'm I'm very bullish on, as I said, also with gold and commodities in the phase after because the Fed is probably going to come out like they did the last hour, and they always do, and and trying to backstop this again.
但问题是，这次有一点变了，就是约翰逊太太的心理，现在对通胀的预期，这在我记忆中几乎是没有的，我有点印象，但不太真切。
But the thing is, this time around, I think the the small thing that has been that has changed is the psychology of, again, missus Johnson there, that now the expectation of inflation, that's something that I hardly can remember we had back in the I mean, I can remember some, but not really.
但我这一辈子，看到的都是很低的通胀，而且通胀一直在下降。
But all through my life, we have seen very low inflation and falling inflation.
如果突然开始看到通胀上升，我属于那种认为从长远来看，不是短期，而是更长的 timeframe，通胀会上升的阵营。
If all of a sudden we start to see that rising, and I'm on the team of that in the long prospect long timeframe, not short time here, short term, but shorter sorry, longer timeframe, I can see inflation going up.
所以我说，那时候你可能会看到我们处于一个阶段，大宗商品、黄金、白银等等，在那个阶段会表现非常好。
And that's where I say that probably you will see that we are in a phase where commodities, gold, silver and so on, in that phase will do really well.
所以我觉得，关键就在于你看的是哪个时间框架。
So I think the it's gonna be about what is the time frame you're looking at.
这太重要了。
Which is so important.
太重要了。
So important.
你描述的情况是，人们有一种心理，需要保护自己的购买力。
And you're describing something where people have a psychology that they need to protect their purchasing power.
这现在已经成为我们个人考虑的一部分，不仅仅是要分散投资到各种其他资产来保护购买力，因为你知道通胀可能会回来，这是我们之前没有真正经历过的。
That is now part of what we consider even as an individual, that it's not just enough that you're gonna wanna diversify into all sorts of other assets in order to try to protect your purchasing power because you know inflation can come back, which is something we haven't really had.
这真的是一个非常大的变化。
That's a really, really big change.
而且考虑时间框架总是好的。
And it's always good to think about timeframes.
时间框架在缩略图或任何地方都不会显示出来，但我们在这些对话中会尽量讨论它们，因为你在分散投资组合时也需要考虑这一点，不仅要跨资产，还要跨时间框架，以确保它们之间没有相关性。
Timeframes don't show up on thumbnails on anything, but we try to talk about them in these conversations because you need to be thinking about that also when you're diversifying your portfolio, not just across assets, but across time frames to make sure you're not correlated.
跟我聊聊短期的情况吧，你对ETH怎么看？
Talk to me a little bit about shorter term, how you're feeling about ETH.
八月份表现很强劲。
Had a strong month in August.
我知道你一直在关注这个。
I know you track that.
看起来ETH和比特币是不是可能刚开始一波上涨？
Does it look like they were at the beginning of a of a leg higher maybe for ETH and Bitcoin?
你是把它们分开来看的吗？
Are you thinking about them separately?
我觉得加密货币，你知道，就是一种资产类别。
I I I think of crypto as a, you know, as as an asset class.
对。
And yeah.
但我觉得我们确实看到了我上次可能一直在说的那种情况。
But it's I do think that we have seen exactly what I probably have been talking about last time.
我觉得我们看到资金首先流向最安全的部分，你知道，当你开始投资的时候。
I think that we see this rotation of capital first to be going into what is the most secure part of the of, you know, when you start to when you invest.
然后我们看到纳斯达克、这些主题、AI等等，你知道，都冒出来了，而且涨得特别疯狂。
And then we've seen the Nasdaq and all these these themes and the AI and so on, you know, popping up, And they have been going insane.
大量资金被吸引到那里。
And a lot of capital have been attracted into that.
在某个时候，投资者可能开始说，嗯，我们是不是该把钱投到别的地方去？
At some point, people probably investors start to say, well, do we think that we need to put our money into something else?
因为事情不可能一直直线上升，永远涨下去。
Because things are not going to go straight up, like, forever.
所以我觉得我们看到的其实就是那个小幅度的资金轮动。
So what I think we're seeing is simply that small rotation.
而且只需要一点点资金就能进入。
And it just takes a little to get into.
我的意思是，和全球股市的规模相比，进入加密货币的资金大概是1万亿美元，而全球股市的规模是150万亿美元左右。
I mean, compared to the stock market, size of that globally, what comes into crypto is like 1,000,000,000,000 out of a stock market of 150,000,000,000,000 or something like that in the global stock market.
所以不需要太多资金。
So it doesn't take a lot.
而且我觉得那1万亿美元确实有可能流入加密货币，你也能看到那里的轮动，对吧？
And I do I think that that 1,000,000,000,000 could find its way into into to crypto and you can see that rotation in there?
是的，我确实这么认为。
Yes, I do.
我觉得这正是我们开始看到的情况。
And I think that's what we are starting to see.
那这是否意味着我认为这种情况还能再持续几年呢？
Does that mean that I'm thinking that I think it can go on for another, you know, a few years here?
我不这么认为。
I don't think so.
我觉得我们会看到一波非常强劲的反弹，因为那个情况。
I think we're gonna see a, you know, very, very strong rally because of that, you know, situation.
但归根结底，在美元可能触底之前，我不会持有任何加密货币，那会是在更低的价位。
But by the end of the day, I would not be long any crypto at the moment we see a potential bottoming of the dollar, which will be lower down.
当大家都在喊美元要完蛋的时候，我可能不会持有加密货币，可能会卖掉。
When everybody's crying the dollar's dying, I probably will not be long at crypto at that point and probably sell it off.
但没错，我觉得现在这个时候，以太坊可能会创下历史新高。
But yes, I think at this point here, I think we can see a new all time high on Ethereum.
比特币就不太确定了，就像其他人一样。
Not so certain about Bitcoin like the rest of, you know, like everybody else's.
我觉得我们看到的是一次更大的突破，但比特币反弹到115,000美元是很有可能的事，但我不确定会不会创下历史新高。
I think it's it's a bigger break we have seen, But a a bounce to, you know, a 115,000 is could easily be the case for Bitcoin, but I'm not sure we see a new all time high.
然后还有很多我们的老币。
And then a lot of our old coins.
我觉得实际上，那个老指数也会创出历史新高。
I think, actually, we're gonna see the old index is going to make a new all time high as well.
所以，是的，我确实认为加密货币领域会再次出现那种狂热情绪。
So, yes, I I I do think we're gonna see a euphoria develop one once more in in crypto land.
所以它又开始像风险资产一样交易了。
So it's it's it's trading as sort of a risk asset again.
这是资金在轮动，寻找下一个动量交易机会，而不是分散投资到与美元体系无关的非相关资产。
It's a rotation of money into sort of searching for that that next momentum trade as opposed to a diversification into uncorrelated asset that is not in the dollar universe.
对你来说，还是前者。
You it's still the former for you.
另一个说法是，那是饭桌上好听的故事，但不会是加密货币。
The other one is that that's a nice narrative for the dinner table, But it's not gonna be crypto.
而且顺便说一句，我不认为加密货币未来会成为美元的竞争对手。
And crypto, by the way, is I don't see that as going to be anything of a competitor to the dollar down the road.
它会是一种技术，帮助我们，也会推动AI技术的发展，并在那里帮助我们。
It's going to be technology that will help us and will be propelling the AI technologies as well and help us there.
但它不会成为美元或者法定货币的真正竞争对手。
But it's not going to be a a a real competitor to the to the Dixie or to the dollar, HEC money.
真的不是那样的。
It's just not like that.
我知道这是很多比特币极端主义者喜欢挂在嘴边的话，但我不这么看。
And I know that's part of the of the dinner tables and a lot of, Bitcoin maximalists like that, but, I don't see that.
而且我们在这里的一些对话，也会听取不同的观点，我们刚刚还请了一位加密货币的看多者。
And and some of the conversations we have here too, we entertain across across opinions, and so we we also just had a a crypto bull on.
但能从各个角度获取信息和观点真的很好，这样大家才能做出明智和知情的决定。
But it's really good to, get information and view from all sides so that people can make an educated and informed decision.
我们很喜欢和你聊天，亨里克，因为你总是愿意反驳那些流行的说法。
We love catching up with you, Henrik, because you're always willing to push back against the narratives out there.
现在这样做真的很重要，因为所有东西都被简化了，而且有很多标题党。
And it's really important to do that right now because everything's sort of distilled and simplified down, and there's a lot of clickbait.
所以我们真的很感激这样有深度的对话。
And so we really appreciate these kinds of thoughtful conversations.
非常感谢。
Thank you so much.
谢谢你，Maggie，邀请我来参加。
Thank you, Maggie, for having me on.
感谢你抽出时间。
Appreciate your time.
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