房地产市场陷入危机：尼克·杰里警告最糟糕的时刻尚未到来

现在房地产市场正处于多年的衰退期。

Housing is now in a multiyear recession.

奥斯汀目前是美国房地产泡沫破裂最严重的地方。

Austin's the biggest housing bust in The US right now.

我觉得接下来一年我们还会看到更大的折扣。

I think we're gonna see even bigger discounts over the next year.

嘿，尼克。

Hey, Nick.

感谢你来做客。

Thanks for joining us.

欢迎来到Wealthion。

Welcome to Wealthion.

很高兴和你一起，玛吉。

Great being here with you, Maggie.

我们专门聚焦房地产市场，深入分析全国各地的市场情况。

Focus specifically on housing and really go deep and look at markets all across the country.

前几天有人跟我说了个有意思的事，说美联储主席凯文·沃尔什谈了很多关于AI的话题，但很少谈住房，几乎没怎么提。

And someone said something to me interesting the other day that the Fed chair, Kevin Walsh, has talked a lot about AI, not so much about housing, hasn't mentioned it that much.

我觉得现在很多人都有这样的担忧。

And there's, I think, a lot of concern out there.

那你现在怎么看美国房地产市场的状况？

What are you seeing, when it comes to the state of The US housing market right now?

嗯，房地产市场现在正处于多年的衰退期。

Well, housing is now in a multiyear recession.

从销售和需求来看，甚至可以说是萧条。

Some could call it even a depression when it comes to sales and demand.

2026年8月，美国购房人数年化率跌破400万。

So the number of people buying homes in The US just fell below 4,000,000 annualized in August 2026.

这差不多回到了2009年的销售水平。

That's roughly at 2,009 levels of sales.

所以目前的购房需求已经跌到了金融危机时期的水平。

So the current buyer demand is at great financial crisis levels.

而且，如果按住房存量的规模来调整的话，现在的需求是四十年来最低的。

And actually, when adjusting for the size of the housing stock, demand today is the lowest it's been in forty years.

所以现在真的很少有人买房。

And so really very few people are buying homes right now.

其中一个主要原因就是房价仍然很高。

And one of the main reasons is prices are still very high.

当然，房贷利率又回升到了7%以上。

And of course, mortgage rates have gone back up above 7%.

所以现在对买家来说，市场真的非常艰难。

And so it's a really, really tough market right now for buyers.

如果你是房地产从业者，市场也很艰难。

It's a tough market if you're a real estate professional as well.

是啊，天哪，这真是……

Yeah, gosh, that that is...

如果我们回到那个水平，我想我们都记得当时是什么感觉。

I mean, if we're we're going back to those levels, think we all remember what it felt like back then.

你看到哪些数据点表明情况已经这么糟糕了？

What are you seeing in terms of data points that tell you that the situation is that bad?

销售数字确实非常非常低。

So, you know, the sales numbers are really, really low.

我觉得我们开始看到的另一个新现象是，一些市场的房价在下跌。

I think the other thing we're starting to see for the first time actually is lower prices in some markets.

要知道，这是现在和2008、2009年的一个区别。

Know, that's one of the differences between now and 2008, 2009.

那时候房价很快就大幅下跌了。

There was a big drop in prices pretty quickly back then.

现在还没有出现全国性的大幅房价下跌。

There hasn't been the big national drop in prices.

不过，像佛罗里达、得克萨斯、田纳西、亚利桑那、科罗拉多这些市场，我们确实开始看到房价在下跌。

However, certain markets like Florida, Texas, Tennessee, Arizona, Colorado, we're actually starting to see values drop in these markets.

我在Reventure的工作之一就是走遍美国，去这些地方的房地产市场看看，我发现这些市场里有很多卖家现在处于负资产状态，卖房时比三四年前买的时候亏了不少。

And one thing I do for my job here at Reventure is I travel around The US and go to these local housing markets, and I'm finding lots of sellers in these markets underwater and selling at losses from what they bought for three to four years ago.

听我说，实地考察……

Listen, boot...

没有什么比实地考察更真实的了，所以我们很感激。

Nothing like boots on the ground, so we appreciate that.

而且有趣的是，当你听这个的时候。

And it's funny as you're listening to this.

我记得几年前，有人跟我说，房地产是本地化的。

I remember years ago, someone said to me, real estate's local.

我住在新泽西。

And I live in New Jersey.

我现在就在新泽西跟你说话，这里的感觉完全不像你描述的市场。

I'm talking to you from New Jersey, and it does not feel like the market you're describing.

比如，人们根本找不到房子。

Like, people can't find a house.

我们经常在Facebook上看到帖子说，我在找房子。

We get posts on Facebook all the time saying, I'm looking for something.

我要搬出城里。

I'm moving out of the city.

我想要这个学区的房子。

I want, you know, I want this school district.

如果你看到什么房源，就靠口口相传了，因为市场太紧张了。

Like, if you see anything, trying for word-of-mouth because it's been that tight.

这是不是只是周期见顶，开始回落了，还是……

Is that just sort of top of cycle it's rolling over, or is it...

这很大程度上取决于你所在的位置吗？

Does this very much depend on where you sit?

这是个好问题。

It's a great question.

完全取决于你在哪里。

It totally depends on where you are.

这是美国历史上分化最严重的房地产市场之一。

This is one of the most bifurcated housing markets we have ever seen in US history.

很高兴你提到新泽西，因为那是美国最热门的房地产市场之一，尤其是纽约市北部泽西的一些郊区，还有费城南部泽西的一些郊区。

And I'm glad you brought up New Jersey because that's one of the hottest housing markets in America, particularly some of those suburbs outside of New York City in Northern Jersey, also some of the suburbs outside Philly in Southern Jersey.

房价仍然每年上涨5%、7%、8%，主要原因是那里的房源短缺。

Prices are still going up five, seven, 8% year over year, and the main reason is there's an inventory shortage there.

就是没有足够的房子在卖。

There simply aren't enough homes for sale.

这挺有意思的。

And, you know, it's kind of interesting.

他们经常谈论全国性的住房短缺问题。

They talk a lot about the national housing shortage.

我相信你肯定听说过。

I'm sure you've heard that.

是的。

Yes.

这正是我想问你的问题之一。

This is one of my questions for you.

全国性的住房短缺。

The national the national housing shortage.

他们说美国缺三百万到五百万套房子。

They say we're three to 5,000,000 homes short in The US.

这经常被拿来当房价仍然很高的借口。

And that's often used as an excuse for why prices are still high.

但实际上这非常分地区。

But that's actually super regional.

所以新泽西确实存在住房短缺。

So New Jersey legitimately has a housing shortage.

他们建的房子不多。

They don't build many homes.

在那里几乎不可能拿到完整的许可证。

It's almost impossible to get full permits there.

我认识新泽西的一些建筑商，他们说这有多难。

I know some builders in New Jersey who say how hard it is.

而且新泽西的房主买了房之后往往住很久，对吧？

And then the owners in New Jersey tend to stay for a long time after they buy, right?

相反，我在纳什维尔这边，到处都在盖房子，人们就像流水线一样来来去去。

Conversely, where I am in Nashville, there's building left and right and people are just, it's like a conveyor belt.

人们两三年就搬进搬出一次。

People are coming in, moving out every two to three years.

我在纳什维尔市场上看到的很多房子，都是三年前才买的，现在又挂牌了，而且纳什维尔的库存真的创了纪录。

A lot of the homes in Nashville I see on the market today were listed, were only bought three years ago and the inventory in Nashville is literally at a record.

所以，你所在的地方不同，在这个房市里的体验就完全不同。

So depending on where you are, you're going to have a completely different experience in this housing market.

总的来说，东北部和中西部的住房短缺更严重。

Generally, the Northeast and the Midwest are in more of a shortage.

那里的房价还在上涨。

Prices are still going up.

而南部和西海岸……

The South and the West Coast Of The U.

南部和西海岸那边，供应过剩。

S, there's a surplus of supply.

价格开始下跌了。

Prices are starting to drop.

好的，我们很喜欢讨论我们看到的现象和说法，然后为那些真正深入了解这个行业的人剖析背后的原因。

Okay, so we love sort of addressing sort of the things we see, narratives we see and then getting underneath the hood for people who are who are really in in the topic and understand the sector.

你经常听到，尤其是我住在新泽西，一个高税州。

You hear all the time, especially because I live in New Jersey, high tax state.

我们要离开那里。

We're getting out of there.

大家都往南方搬，天气暖和，税也低。

Everyone's moving south, warmer weather, better taxes.

为什么我们会有……

Why are we having...

供应怎么会不……

How are the supply to not...

需求动态，如你所说，如果那是真的的话？

Demand dynamics, as you say, if that is true?

那确实是2010年代和疫情初期的说法。

So that was very much a twenty tens and early stage pandemic narrative.

人们从新泽西、纽约、康涅狄格和芝加哥大规模迁出的想法。

The idea of the exodus from New Jersey, the exodus from New York and Connecticut, the exodus from Chicago.

那在2010年代和疫情初期确实发生过。

That was very much something that did happen in the twenty tens and early stages of the pandemic.

但过去三年情况发生了变化。

However, something has changed in the last three years.

所谓的“大迁徙”已经不像以前那样了，我甚至认为现在出现了反向迁移的趋势，人们开始搬回东北和中西部的一些城市，可能也开始离开南方的一些繁荣城镇，尤其是那些地方。

That quote unquote exodus is not happening nearly in the same way, and I would actually argue a reverse migration trend is starting where people are starting to move back to some of these cities in the Northeast and Midwest and maybe starting to leave some of these boom towns in the South, especially.

所以我认为那在2010年代和疫情初期是真实的说法。

So I would view it as that was a true narrative in the twenty tens and the early stages of pandemic.

但现在这种情况已经不再那么明显了。

It's not happening anymore to the same extent.

这就是为什么我们在南方看到这么高的住房供应。

And that's why we're seeing such high housing supply in the South.

我经常去佛罗里达出差。

I mean, I I travel around Florida a lot.

我最近还去了拉斯维加斯，还有德克萨斯。

I was actually just in Las Vegas as well, as well as Texas.

这些市场的库存量真的打破了十到十五年的记录。

And the supply in these markets is literally breaking ten to fifteen year records of inventory on the market.

有些卖家在亏本卖房。

You have sellers taking losses on homes.

这让当地很多人感到震惊，因为他们还在听那些老说法，对吧？

And that is shocking to many of the locals in those markets because they are still fed that narrative, Right?

他们还在听那些说法，比如所有加州人都在搬到拉斯维加斯。

They're still fed the narrative of like, all the people from California are moving to Las Vegas.

他们还在谈论这个。

You know, they still talk about that.

但当你看看数据，拉斯维加斯的房屋销售在过去四五年里下降了40%。

But then when you look at the data, home sales in Vegas are down 40% over the last four years, five years.

显然，这种情况已经不再发生了。

Clearly, that's not happening anymore.

我觉得房地产市场现在很冷清，对吧？

And I think it's, you know, the housing is slow, right?

而且关于房地产市场的说法也是冷清的。

And the narrative around housing is slow.

我认为在接下来的几年里，越来越多的人会开始意识到，东北和中西部那些所谓的传统房地产市场正在开始回暖。

And I think over the next couple of years, more and more people will start to realize that the so called legacy housing markets in the Northeast and Midwest are starting to gain.

不过，短期内，很多人还没有意识到这一点。

But, yeah, in the short term, a lot of people still aren't aware that this is happening.

这太有意思了。

This is so interesting.

我们一会儿要谈谈融资的问题，因为我知道高利率在这里是个问题。

We're gonna talk about financing part of it in a minute because I know high rates are are an issue here.

但说到那种反向迁移，南方迁移的结束，现在感觉是暂时的、周期性的吗？

But when you're talking about that that sort of reverse migration, the end of the move south, Does it feel temporary and cyclical now?

这是……

Is that...

你有没有搞清楚为什么会发生这种情况？

Have you been able to figure out why that's happening?

美国阳光地带的迁移确实有很强的周期性。

There's a very cyclical nature to Sun Belt migration in The US.

每十到十二年，就会有一个新的周期开始。

Every ten to twelve years, there's kind of a new cycle that kickstarts itself.

如果你回顾2000年代中期，那是上一次阳光地带迁移的繁荣和萧条时期，大约在2005、2006年。

If you actually go back to the mid 2000s, that was the last time there was a boom and a bust in Sun Belt migration, 'five, 'six.

它在大流行初期达到了创纪录的高点，然后急剧下降，就像现在这样。

It kind of peaked at a record near where it was actually in the early stages of the pandemic, and then it fell off the table, much like it's falling off the table today.

接下来的五六年，阳光地带的迁移会保持低迷。

And then, you know, for the next five, six years, Sun Belt migration is low.

需要说明的是，阳光地带的一些市场仍然有人迁入。

And to be clear, some of these Sun Belt markets still have people moving in.

并不是说出现了大规模的人口外流。

It's not like it's like a mass exodus.

只是净迁移水平下降了60%、70%、80%。

It's just like the migration levels net dropped 60, 70, 80%.

你在那些地方市场上真的能感受到这种变化。

And you really feel it in those local markets.

然后那些地方市场会在一段时间内变得更便宜，对吧。

And then those local markets get cheaper, right, over a period of time.

这就为重新调整创造了条件。

And then that allows a reset to take place.

所以我认为这确实具有很强的周期性。

So I think there is a very cyclical nature to this.

从长远来看，我并不认为阳光地带会走向末日。

And I'm not really a doomsdayer in the long run on the Sun Belt.

我就住在阳光地带。

I live in the Sun Belt.

过去五年我一直在阳光地带各处生活。

I've lived all around the Sun Belt the last five years.

所以我觉得这里有很多好处。

So I think there are a lot of positives to it.

但现实是，这些市场在疫情期间变得太贵了，尤其是对当地人来说。

But there's just a certain reality that these markets got too expensive, especially for locals during the pandemic.

现在移民潮退了，市场正在重新调整。

And now that the migration has dropped, there's a reset taking place.

对，价格高就是治价格高的药，对吧？

Yeah, prices, the cure for high prices is high prices, right?

就是这样。

That's it.

我们刚才还在聊大宗商品，但你知道，房地产是实实在在的资产。

Were just talking about that with commodities, but you know, real estate is a real asset.

那么，第二套房或者退休的婴儿潮一代的行为在这里面起到什么作用，或者根本不起作用？

So do, how does the second home or retiree kind of boomer behavior factor in here, or does it at all?

因为我觉得担心的是……

Because I think the worry that...

或者我们之前在……看到的，

Or what we what we saw back in...

亲身经历在零八年的……

Firsthand back in o eight...

零七、零八年，当价格开始下跌时，如果……

O seven, o eight is when prices start to go down, if...

特别是如果这不是你的主要住所，你把它当作投资、第二套房，而你的时间跨度不同，你会感到恐慌。

Especially if it's not your primary residence and you are sitting on this as an investment, as a second home, and your time horizon is different, you get spooked.

特别是如果你是一个婴儿潮一代，在北卡罗来纳州有第二套房，比如，而那里的价格像石头一样下跌，这会加速价格螺旋下跌吗？

And especially if you're a boomer with a second home in North Carolina, for instance, for example, and those prices are dropping like a rock, does it accelerate that that price spiral?

比如，我们现在处于这个周期的哪个阶段？

Like, where are we in that cycle?

婴儿潮一代出人意料地坚韧。

The baby boomers have been surprisingly resilient

因为他们有很多资产。

in because they have a lot of assets.

他们确实有很多资产。

They have a lot of assets.

而且我注意到……

And I I see this...

我对房地产市场的卖方心理很感兴趣，比如看奥兰多或佛罗里达那些度假市场的数据，供应量达到十五年来的高点，需求接近十年来的低点，价格已经下跌了10%到15%。

I'm fascinated in seller psychology on the housing market, how, you know, I could look at the data in a market like, you know, Orlando, Florida, right, or some of these vacation markets in Florida where, the supply is at a fifteen year high, demand's near a ten year low, and prices are down 10, 15% already.

但在这些市场里，很多婴儿潮一代的房主还是会说：不不不。

And in some of those markets, a lot of the baby boomer owners will still be like, No, no, no, no.

这是个很好的持有市场。

This is a great this is a great market to own.

也许是因为股市仍然在高位，而且他们拥有无贷款房产。

Maybe because the stock market is still high, you know, and they own mortgage free.

所以可能真的没有卖房的压力。

So there just isn't maybe the pressure to sell.

所以我觉得现在的婴儿潮一代比二十年前的房主更有韧性。

So I think the baby boomers of today are more resilient than maybe the owners of twenty years ago.

不过我觉得，婴儿潮一代的故事更多是未来五到十年，他们逐渐老去，离开自己的房子。

I think, though, the story with baby boomers is more the next five to ten years on aging on aging out of homes.

因为“银色海啸”这个话题过去五年一直在提，而且实际上……

Because the silver tsunami is something that's been talked about the last five years, and it's actually...

这是真的。

It's real.

已经开始发生了。

It's starting.

这就是老龄化趋势，很多在2000年代中期到末期买房的婴儿潮一代，未来十年内会开始陆续搬离自己的房子。

And that's the aging trend where a lot of the baby boomers who bought starting in the mid two thousands to late two thousands, they will start aging out of their homes in the next ten years.

最年长的婴儿潮一代现在已经80岁了。

The oldest baby boomers are now 80.

所以我觉得婴儿潮一代真正的问题，不是他们会恐慌性地抛售第二套房产，而是未来十年，由于简单的人口老龄化，这些阳光地带度假市场的房源供应会结构性增加。

So I think the real story with baby boomers is less that they're gonna panic and offload their second home now, and more that we're just gonna see a structural increase in supply in these baby boomer vacation Sun Belt markets over the next ten years due to simple aging demographics.

我们这个频道做的所有事情，目标只有一个，就是让你成为更敏锐、更有见识的投资者，一个能在主流意识到之前就看懂影响你财富的宏观力量的人。

Everything we do on this channel has one goal, to make you a sharper, better informed investor, someone who understands the macro forces shaping your money before the mainstream catches on.

但信息只是其中一半。

But information is only half of it.

另一半是行动。

The other half is acting on it.

这正是Wealthion会员的意义所在。

And that's what Wealthion membership is for.

它让你从观看这些对话，转变为把它们应用到自己的投资组合中。

It's how you go from watching these conversations to putting them to work in your own portfolio.

会员资格为你打开三扇门：接触顾问，帮助你把实物资产纳入投资组合，以及对于合格投资者，提供接触专业基金的机会。

Membership opens three doors, access to advisors, helping build real assets into your portfolio, and for accredited investors, access to specialized funds.

想了解更多，成为会员的链接就在下面的描述框里。

To learn more, the link to become a member is in the description box below.

对，这很有意思，而且他们更有韧性也说得通。

Yeah, that's so interesting, and that makes a lot of sense that they'd be a bit more resilient.

那现在是谁在观望不买呢？

Who is the who is the buyer that is is boycotting right now?

是家庭组建的需求吗？

Is it household formation?

是更年轻的买家吗？

Is is it younger buyers?

其实主要是……

It's really...

说实话，是的，肯定是这样。

I mean, honestly, yes, for sure.

主要是更年轻的买家，千禧一代和Z世代。

It's it's younger buyers, millennial and Gen Z.

不过其实各个年龄段都有，因为……

It's kind of across the board, though, because there's...

如果你现在买房要贷款，虽然还是有70%到80%的人这么做，但算下来根本不划算，对吧？

If you're buying with a mortgage in today's market, which still 70 to 80% of people do, The math just doesn't make sense, right?

所以，按照现在的房价和大约7%到7.5%的房贷利率，美国典型的月供，包括税费和保险，是每月2850美元。

So with current prices and the mortgage rates around seven to seven and a half percent, the typical monthly mortgage payment in The US, inclusive of taxes and insurance, is $28.50 a month.

每月2850美元，差不多一年就是3.6万美元。

2,850 a month, which is close to 36,000 a year.

现在，想想美国的中位家庭收入，

Now, when you think about the median household income in The U.

大概在8.7万美元左右。

S, that's around 87,000.

所以你把3.5万除以8.7万，你会发现房贷占收入的比例接近40%，而且是基于税前总收入。

So you divide the 35,000 by 87,000, you're getting close to a 40% mortgage payment to income ratio on gross pretax income.

这样一来，很多人根本连贷款资格都达不到。

And that's just, you know, like a lot of people just can't even qualify.

我记得美国第二大建筑商Lennar在最近的财报里提到，大概有一半去他们售楼处看房的人，直接就不符合贷款资格。

I think Lennar, the second biggest homebuilder in America, a recent earnings report, they came out and said something about how I think it was roughly half the people who come in to their sites to look at homes just immediately don't qualify.

所以这就是现实情况。

And so there's just like a reality to that.

就是有些人，很大一部分人，根本连贷款资格都没有。

You know, there's just some people who don't like a huge portion won't even qualify.

然后，在那些有资格的人里，我觉得有些人会考虑买房和租房的性价比。

And then among the people who do qualify, I think some of them are looking at the value of buying versus renting.

他们会说，其实租同样的房子比买要便宜30%到40%。

And they're saying, well, actually, it's cheaper by 30 or 40% to rent the same house than it is to buy it.

那我为什么要买呢？

So why would I buy it?

所以，从各个层面来看，无论是负担能力还是买房和租房的比较，我觉得这个账根本算不过来。

So I I just on all levels, like, on on multiple levels of affordability and then buy versus rent, I think just the math isn't mathing.

这就把买家挤出了市场。

And that's pushing buyers out of the market.

然后，是的，还有第三类买家，他们确实买得起，但一看价格，就直接说，算了。

And then, yeah, you have a third segment of buyers who who really can afford it, but then just look at the prices and are just like, no.

我可不想花60万买一栋五年前才卖40万的房子。

I'm not gonna pay 600,000 for a house that sold for 400,005 years ago.

或者我不想把那么多收入都花在这上面。

Or, you know, I don't want that much of my income going.

我……

I...

就像我以前跟我老公看房子时说的，那会让我少喝好多酒、少吃好多寿司。

As I said to when we were looking at houses back in the day to my husband, that's a lot of wine and sushi out of my budget.

所以我不知道我是否想

So I don't know if I want

去

to go

买那个。

for that.

嗯，这倒是真的。

Well, that's real.

房子……

House...

就是说，大家都不想变成房奴。

Like, people don't want to become house poor.

我觉得这又是一个代际的转变。

And I think this is another generational shift.

比如在2000年代中期房地产泡沫那阵子，我觉得大家对美国梦有一种心理上的认同感。

Like, in the mid two thousands housing bubble and leading up to it, I think there was more of like a psychological buy in that people had on the American dream.

而且我觉得那时候的人更愿意在财务上冒点险去买房子。

And I think people kind of like were more up for the idea of of taking some chances financially to own a house.

但我觉得千禧一代和Z世代不是这样的。

I don't think millennial and Gen Z population is like that.

我觉得千禧一代和Z世代是在金融危机后长大的，他们有时候甚至觉得买房是个负担。

I think the millennial Gen Z population kind of grew up post GFC and I think looks at owning a home almost sometimes as a burden.

现在有那些新的豪华公寓社区，过去十年人们都住在那里，什么东西坏了，提交一个维修单就行。

You know, you know, they have these new luxury apartment communities now that people have been living in the last ten years where if anything breaks, submit a maintenance ticket.

而且大概十分钟之内就修好了。

And within like ten minutes, it's fixed.

然后你从那种生活一下子变成可能买房子要付更高的月供，然后突然周末还得跑建材市场。

And then you go from that to maybe buying a house at a higher payment, and then all of a sudden you got to go to Home Depot on the weekend.

我觉得很多千禧一代和Z世代，从生活方式的角度来看，可能根本不想那样。

I think like a lot of millennial and Gen Zs, from a lifestyle standpoint, might not even want that.

这样一来，就更看重价格是否合理和性价比了。

Which is which then puts even more of the focus on affordability and value.

我确实相信大家还是想买房的，但他们想以实际的价格来买。

I do believe people still want to buy houses, but they wanna do so at a price point that's realistic.

这……

That's...

我觉得你说得太对了。

I think you're spot on with that.

听我说。

Listen.

再加上泳池、健身房、公共活动室、游戏室，还有电影之夜之类的活动，他们在这些公寓里得到的配套服务远超基本需求。

And throw in pools and gyms and community rooms and game rooms and movie night, and they're getting a lot for what they need in those apartments.

那现在的高房贷利率……

How how much is high...

对买房还是租房这个决定来说，目前这么高的房贷利率影响有多大？

That high mortgage rate right now factoring into this decision to to buy versus rent?

或者说，这构成了多大的阻碍呢？

Or how much of a barrier is that?

这确实是个障碍。

It's a definite barrier.

显然，如果利率是4%，买房的人就会更多。

Obviously, if rates were 4%, there would be more people buying.

不过，我觉得房贷利率的微小波动，其实没大家想的那么重要。

However, I I actually don't think the incremental moves in mortgage rates mean as much as people think.

你看，过去四年里，房贷利率一直在5.8%、5.9%到7.5%、7.6%之间来回波动。

Like, mortgage rates have bounced around between, like, 5.8, 5.9%, and 7.5, 7.6% the last four years.

在这个范围内，需求真的没有什么明显变化。

In that range, there's really been no discernible change in demand.

过去四年，不管利率是7.5还是5.9，需求一直都很低。

Like, demand has just been really low the last four years regardless of whether the rate's seven five or five nine.

肯定存在某个更低的利率，对吧，那个利率可能会吸引更多买家。

There must be some rate below that, right, that might, like, be the rate that unlocks more buyers.

但我真的不认为最近房贷利率的上涨会带来太大变化，因为即使在6.5的时候，情况也已经很困难了。

But I I actually don't think even the recent run up in mortgage rates is, like, changing things that much because it was already even at a six five.

那时候买房依然很难负担。

It was still, you know, really hard to afford it.

不过说到这一点，有一个有趣的现象值得思考，那就是建筑商。

On that point though, one thing that's interesting to think about is the builders.

建筑商现在几乎像是在一个独立于其他人的房地产市场里运作。

Is the builders are almost like operating in their own separate housing market right now from everyone else.

建筑商大约占房屋销售总量的15%。

Builders account for about 15% of home sales total.

所以六分之一，他们影响挺大的。

So, you know, one out of six, you know, they're pretty impactful.

建筑商们现在在做的是，他们提供这些激进的按揭利率买断。

What the builders are doing is they're giving these aggressive mortgage rate buy downs.

我记得美国最大的建筑商霍顿博士在最近的财报电话会议上说，他们的销售积压订单的按揭利率是4.9%。

I think Doctor Horton, the biggest builder in The US, said in a recent earnings call that their backlog on their sales is at a 4.9% mortgage rate.

而且他们通常会提供整个贷款期限的买断。

And often they'll give these buy downs for the full term.

所以如果你从这些建筑商那里买房，你可能会得到比市场利率低2%的利率。

So, you know, if you buy from some of these builders, you can get a rate maybe 2% below market.

但这些建筑商的表现也表明，即使在这样的利率下，即使降价，需求仍然不怎么样。

And what these builders are showing, though, is that even at like those rates and even with cutting prices, the demand still isn't great.

就像，情况就是，好吧。

Like it's getting it's like, okay.

所以我认为最终，利率下降会有帮助，但我认为这不会太大改变大局。

And so I think ultimately, like rates going down would help, but I don't think it's going to change the calculus that much.

我们真的需要看到房贷利率降到5%，房价再降20%。

Like we really would need to see mortgage rates go to five and prices drop 20%.

如果这两件事都发生了，我觉得需求会大幅反弹。

Like, if those two things happened, I think there would be a big rebound in demand.

但如果这些不发生，我觉得未来几年我们都会困在这个阶段。

But short of those happening, I think we're gonna be stuck in this in this phase for the next couple of years.

这太有意思了。

That's so interesting.

所以听起来价格可能更重要，或者必须和利率一起变化。

So it sounds like prices matter maybe more or have to happen in conjunction with the rate.

因为我觉得很多人认为利率太高了。

Because I think a lot of people think rates are too high.

我们必须降低利率，重振房地产市场。

We gotta get rates down and revive housing.

但你说的是，事情没那么简单。

But you're saying it's it's not that simple.

光靠这个是不够的。

That that alone won't do it.

确实没那么简单。

It's definitely not that simple.

我完全同意，价格比利率重要得多。

I I totally agree with the assertion that prices matter way more than rates.

如果你看美国房地产市场一百三十年的图表，从1890年或1895年开始，把房贷利率和通胀调整后的房价做个对比，有一件事会变得非常清楚。

So if you were to look at a hundred thirty year chart of The US housing market going back to like 1890, 1895, and you were to compare mortgage rates to inflation adjusted prices, one thing becomes very clear.

接近6.5%或7%甚至7.5%的房贷利率并不离谱。

A mortgage rate near six and a half or seven or seven and half percent is not crazy.

如果你回看一百三十年，这其实很正常。

That's pretty normal if you go back a hundred thirty years.

即使在九十年代，利率也有8%到9%。

Even in the nineties, we had rates like eight to 9%.

但完全不同的是通胀调整后的房价。

But what is completely different is inflation adjusted home prices.

那张图上的通胀调整后房价，我可以发给你们看，简直高得离谱。

Inflation adjusted home prices on that graph, and I could send it to you guys, it's through the roof.

甚至比零六年的泡沫时期还要高。

It's even higher than the o six bubble.

所以当你看到那张图的时候，问题出在哪里就一目了然了。

And so when you look at that graph, it becomes very clear what the problem is.

问题就出在房价上。

The problem is prices.

7%的房贷利率确实让人头疼，尤其是考虑到现在的房价这么高。

7% mortgage rates are annoying, especially relative to how high prices are today.

但你去问问那些经历过七十年代、八十年代和九十年代的人。

But that like, you know, talk to people who lived in the seventies and eighties and nineties.

7%的房贷利率根本不算什么。

7% mortgage rate is no big deal.

我觉得主要是因为利率在二十一世纪第二个十年和疫情初期被人为压得太低了，所以才让人觉得7%的房贷利率太高了。

I think it's more that rates were so artificially suppressed in the twenty tens and early stages of the pandemic that that's kind of giving this idea that a 7% mortgage rate is too high.

这太有意思了。

That's so interesting.

而且特别是你提到我们确实看到房价有所下降，但还不足以改变局面，对吧？

And especially since you mentioned that we have seen prices come down, but it's not been enough to change the scenario right

现在。

now.

对。

No.

而且确实没有。

And it hasn't.

这其实……

That's actually...

我想在这个点上稍微停留一下。

I I wanna maybe stick on that point for a second.

因为有些市场，对吧，是很有趣的测试案例。

Because there are some markets, right, that are interesting test cases.

比如德克萨斯州的奥斯汀。

So Austin, Texas.

奥斯汀的房价在过去四年里下跌了27%。

Austin has gone down 27 the last four years on value.

奥斯汀现在是美国最大的房地产泡沫破裂案例。

Austin's the biggest housing bust in The US right now.

这曾经是最大的繁荣之一。

This is one of the biggest booms.

现在却成了最大的萧条之一。

It's now one of the biggest busts.

那么奥斯汀的房价下跌了27%之后，发生了什么？

Now what's happened in Austin since prices have gone down 27%?

其实，并没有发生太多事情。

Well, not a whole lot, actually.

比如，成交量仍然很低，这表明我们现在正处于一个人们不太愿意买房的时候。

Like, the the sales are still pretty low, you know, indicating that, like, you know, we're in a moment right now, I think, where people are just not not really into buying real estate as well.

所以即使房价再跌，我觉得需求也不会立刻回升。

So even if prices drop more, I don't think we're gonna see an immediate increase in demand.

佛罗里达那边，房价也在跌。

Florida, prices are dropping in Florida.

佛罗里达的成交量还是特别低。

Sales in Florida are still really low.

这里有个滞后。

There's this lag.

房地产就是有这种很明显的滞后效应。

There's this, like, heavy lag with real estate.

我们现在就处在这个阶段，大家真的不太想买房。

And we're in this phase right now where people just really aren't interested in buying.

他们买不起。

They can't afford it.

而且过去四年积累了很多这种惯性。

And then there's all this inertia that's been built up over the last four years.

想象一下，那些在疫情期间和疫情刚结束时找房子的人。

Like imagine these people, you know, house hunting during the pandemic and directly after the pandemic.

他们买不起。

They can't afford it.

他们很失望。

They're disappointed.

我觉得很多人对市场已经彻底没兴趣了。

And I think a lot of people are just checked out on the market.

所以即使房价下跌，也不会马上反弹。

So even as prices fall, it's not it's not gonna rebound right away.

这就是有趣的地方，大家都在猜那个神奇的数字是多少。

And and this is where it gets so interesting to to to try to figure out what's the magic number.

什么样的价格看起来……

What looks like...

什么样的情况能让那些已经失去兴趣、转身离开的人重新提起兴趣，就像说，哦，这又回到了每个零售商的问题。

What piques the interest of somebody who's now turned off and turned away to be like, oh, I mean, this this goes back to every retailer.

打七五折，我还真不太感兴趣。

25% off, I'm not really interested.

打六折的话，我可能会进去随便逛逛。

40% off, maybe I'm gonna go in and and window shop.

但这听起来真的像是……

But it it sounds like it's it's really a...

不是一门精确的科学，而且很讲究心理，因为你需要几件事同时凑齐。

Not an exact science and very psychological because you need a few things to line up.

确实是这样。

You do.

我给你讲个我自己的例子。

And I'll give you a personal anecdote.

其实，我今年早些时候买了套房子，当时让我下决心买的原因，就像是一场完美的巧合——那房子就在我一个好朋友家附近。

Actually, I bought a house earlier this year, and what aligned for me to buy that house was like this perfect storm of, you know, it was a house kind of down the street from one of my close friends.

我经常去那片区域，而且注意到卖家已经在挂牌价上亏了大概708万美元在卖。

I've been visiting the area for a long time and I noticed that the seller was selling it at a loss already on their list price by like $7,080,000.

我去看了房子，感觉卖家好像挺想卖的。

And I toured it and I sensed there might have been some like, you know, desire to sell.

所以我就报了个很低的价。

So I submitted this, like, lowball offer.

我就直接说，这个价位我才觉得买得划算。

You know, I was just like, here's where I would feel comfortable buying it.

结果最后成交价比房主当初买的时候低了17万，哇。

And it ended up being a 170,000 less than the owner bought it for Wow.

那是几年前的事了。

Couple years ago.

那真是大降价啊。

And the big haircut.

降得可厉害了。

Huge haircut.

说实话，我当时都没想过这报价会被接受。

Like, like, I I wasn't even thinking, like, it would be accepted, really.

结果还真是这样。

And, turns out it was.

所以我买下了这栋房子，它在2023年卖了49万。

So I bought I bought this house that sold for 490,000 in 2023.

我今天33万就买下来了。

I bought it for $330,000 today.

哇。

Wow.

那……

You know, that...

恭喜你啊，尼克。

I mean, yay for you, Nick.

是啊，恭喜我。

Well, yay for me.

但重点是，这根本不用犹豫，对吧？

But the point is no brainer, right?

那简直是不用想的事。

That was like a no brainer.

那是在我一直喜欢并且常去的地方，打了六五折，对吧？

It was a 35% discount in an area I've been visiting and liked already, right?

我觉得大家需要的可能就是一个不用犹豫的决定。

And I think that's maybe what people need is they need a no brainer.

就是那种，哇，这太划算了，超值。

Where it's like, oh, this is a great deal, tremendous value.

这个价格让我感觉特别好，而且我喜欢这个区域。

I feel great about this price, and I like this area.

好几件事都凑到一起了。

Multiple things lining up.

你说的时候我其实有点皱眉，虽然刚才我为你欢呼，因为我觉得作为房主，我们也都知道那得有多……

And I'm grimacing while you say that before I cheered you because, like, I think we all also know as a homeowner what it must have...

那个人得承受多大的痛苦，才会说，我得把这房子脱手，我愿意承担那样的损失。

The pain it must have taken for that person to be like, I need to unload this and, like, I'm willing to take that sort of loss.