通胀仍是问题。美联储是否在打一场错误的战争？

所以我们面临一个问题，可能需要加息。

So we have a problem where we may need to to to to raise interest rates.

我认为未来几个月的通胀数据会让人意外地偏低。

I think that the inflation numbers are gonna surprise to the downside for the next several months.

正如温斯顿·丘吉尔所说，战争部门总是打去年的战争，我觉得经济学家也在打去年的战争。

As Winston Churchill said, the war department always fights last year's wars, and I think economists are fighting last year's wars.

通胀仍然不肯轻易退去。

Inflation is still refusing to go quietly.

今天的CPI数据显示，物价同比上涨了3.4%，而核心通胀率降至2.4%，但月度数据比预期略高。

Today's CPI showed prices rising 3.4% from a year ago, while core inflation eased to 2.4% but came in a little hotter than expected for the month.

那么，通胀仍然是美联储面临的最大威胁，还是政策制定者在打昨天的仗？

So is inflation still the biggest threat facing the Fed, or are policymakers fighting yesterday's battle?

以下是我们最近一些Wealthion嘉宾的看法。

Here's what some of our recent Wealthion guests have been telling us.

纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯最近发表了一次演讲，信不信由你，他给了我们一些前瞻性指引。

The, president of the New York Fed, John Williams, gave a speech recently in which he gave us some forward guidance, believe it or not.

在新任美联储主席凯文·莫什的领导下，他不想给出任何前瞻性指引。

Under Kevin Morsch, the new Fed chair, he doesn't want to give any forward guidance.

但约翰·威廉姆斯基本上说，在他看来，如果通胀只是持续保持在每月0.2%的水平，那么我们就没有问题。

But John Williams basically said that as far as he's concerned, if inflation just kind of stays 0.2% month over month over and over again, so then we don't have a problem.

如果它显示出更像0.3或0.4的迹象，换句话说，不是持续0.2%。

If it shows signs of being more like 0.3 or 0.4, In other words, it's not consistently 0.2.

那么我们就有问题了，可能需要加息。

So we have a problem and we may need to raise interest rates.

你看CPI商品，自从去年九月有效关税税率达到峰值以来，现在基本上为零。

You look at CPI goods, they're basically zero now since the effective tariff rate peaked last September.

那都已经消化完了。

That's all washed through.

服务价格按季节性调整，未来几个月会下降。

Services prices seasonally, those will come down the next couple of months.

这是疫情后全球范围内的普遍模式，而且租金在CPI和PCED中仍然按3%计算，而所有其他替代指标都更接近2%或更低。

That's been the pattern post global, post pandemic and rents are still calculated by both CPI and PCED at three, when all the alternate measures are more like two or lower.

所以租金通胀很可能会下降。

So rental inflation's gonna most likely gonna come down.

核心服务价格未来几个月会下降，商品价格则保持平稳。

Core services will come down over the next few months and good prices are flat.

关于通胀的问题在于，这是企业愿意支付的价格，还是消费者愿意并且有能力支付的价格？

The question about inflation is, is that the prices businesses wanna pay or is that the prices that consumers are willing and able to pay?

这两者之间总是存在拉锯战。

And there's always that tug of war.

我认为未来几个月的通胀数据会低于预期。

I think that the inflation numbers are going to surprise to the downside for the next several months.

我认为经济会继续增长，但会低于潜在增速，这将对整体价格水平形成下行压力。

I think the economy will continue to grow, but below potential, which is going to put overall downward pressure on aggregate prices.

所以我觉得我们会进入一个通胀放缓的阶段。

So I think that we're going to be in a period of disinflation.

核心PCE之所以比CPI高，是因为股市和闪存价格的影响。

Core PCE is up because of the stock market in flash memory compared to CPI.

如果大家接受了这一点，再看看核心CPI在2.3%而不是2%，我觉得沃勒说得对。

And if people accepted that and they looked at core CPI at two three versus two, I think Waller is correct.

离美联储的目标并不远，而且方向是对的。

It's not that far from the Fed's target, and it's moving in the right direction.

这个机制基本上就是为了防止美联储再犯那种愚蠢的错误而设立的。

It basically was created to prevent the Federal Reserve from doing something as stupid as it did.

但现在我们又回到了老样子，有人鼓励美联储按照一个越来越显示CPI三年、四年、五年滞后平均值的公式行事。

And yet here we are again with people encouraging the same behavior from the Federal Reserve tied to a formula that now increasingly shows a lagged three, four, five year average on CPI.

这简直荒谬。

It's just absurd.

我觉得就像温斯顿·丘吉尔说的，战争部门总是在打上一场战争，而我认为经济学家们也在打上一场战争。

I think people, as Winston Churchill said, the war department always fights last year's wars, and I think economists are fighting last year's wars.

我们这个频道做的所有事情只有一个目标，就是让你成为一个更敏锐、更明智的投资者，一个能在主流意识到之前就理解影响你财富的宏观力量的人。

Everything we do on this channel has one goal, to make you a sharper, better informed investor, someone who understands the macro forces shaping your money before the mainstream catches on.

但信息只是其中一半。

But information is only half of it.

另一半则是付诸行动。

The other half is acting on it.

这正是 Wealthion 会员服务的意义所在。

And that's what Wealthion membership is for.

通过会员服务，你可以从观看这些对话，转变为将它们应用到自己的投资组合中。

It's how you go from watching these conversations to putting them to work in your own portfolio.

会员服务为你打开三扇门：获得顾问的指导，帮助你将真实资产纳入投资组合，以及为合格投资者提供专业基金的准入机会。

Membership opens three doors: access to advisors, helping build real assets into your portfolio, and for accredited investors, access to specialized funds.

想了解更多，成为会员的链接就在下方的描述框中。

To learn more, the link to become a member is in the description box below.